Echo Bay Grits SEO [game over]

[light_ganski]

Agh sorry I didn't get here earlier, spent all yesterday/this afternoon working on an essay. Still catching up (not at page 22 yet) but approve of this PRICKS idea and would like to join.

[light_ganski]

Okay I've skim-read the whole thread now, I'm gonna go through everything in detail here:

Pages 1-10

Neither town-reading nor scum-reading page 1 shots, if anything Eddies/Cheekys shots are

slightly

townie on the basis of recklessness but it all looks like RVS would in a normal game

Your reads are always horrible.

shoot: cheecky

No need for this shot on the basis of random stage shooting/reads... slightly scum-ish

I'm pro the PRICKS/non-shooting/townbloc idea merely on the point that it adds a level of control to who we end up shooting rather than leaving it to peoples whims, considering that there's 13 dead by the time I've got here we've already cut down some of the mess you'd expect from a game this size and to keep having people shooting semi-randomly is just lowering the number of people scum need to hit to win (I'm presuming they still have nightkills in this setup or have I missed something here?), since you're mostly hitting town with these shots.

Sidenote we should be keeping a FOS/votecount IMO

Circular protection might be easier to document moreso than votes, but I still want people pushing their town and scumreads as if we were thinking about someone to lynch.

Votes is fine to scumhunt, the protection strategy is just to impose some controls on the randomness, it has nothing to do with scum vs town, other than town preferring order while scum prefer chaos.

To an extent yes, we may be "thinning the crowd" with chaos shooting but I'm the fact that half these people have been shot without properly being analysed first suggests that coming out of RVS the strategy is anti-town.... I'd rather not shoot anyone than randomly hit a load of townies.

Eddie's right that Cheeky's Ari shot was really scummy, so I already feel townish on him.

Ehh... I like that he used his shot to form reads, but I don't think shooting randomly helps town at all, and I don't think he's working for town to congeal at the moment. I want him to respond to me more before I have a more solid read.

To what degree, and what warrants someone being killed early like this?

Eddie said they are scum.

So a sheep?

I'm guessing

Cheeky's

flip will give you more insight into

Eddie's

alignment?

I like this actually trying to solve the game early on without shooting > town-reading this.

Why are we trying to be serious and game solve this early?

Why not? Because you're scum and random shooting hits more townies?

I think taly also seems like scum

Yeah! Scum who's trying to break the game and minimize the casualties.

Can come from scum

Comes more from town though... scum wouldn't be trying to find strategies to hit more scum?

Idk. I think scum who don't want to get shot know that they have to be obvious town really quick. Or, that's what they expect they need to do, at least.

So your strategy is to FoS anyone who looks townie early on? I was always under the impression that if you think someone looks like a townie its more likely they're town than the reverse.

In this type of game,

early attention = B A D

Why state the obvious?

@Taly, let's make a townbloc mmmk.

You state you'll shoot anyone that shoots me, I've stated I'm shooting your shooter. As people join townbloc we create a circle of protection via mutually assured destruction. People without a shot left can't join, since they can't "protect" anyone else.

Keen?

Let me make sure of how this plays out-

We protect each other by shooting who shoots us.
People who don't join the townbloc and wavelength with the protection won't be apart of this.

My biggest worry is, how would we have a strong idea someone is town who assures protection/a shot against a shooter? It's a bit early to form reads.

Townbloc is sort of a misnomer, more a non-shooty-bloc.

Step 1: Person A says they'll shoot anyone who shoots person B. Person B says they'll shoot whoever shoots person A. Thus anyone wanting to shoot A or B gets shot themselves.
Step 2: Person C wants to join. A shoots anyone shooting B, B shoots anyone shooting C, C shoots anyone shooting A. Thus you have circular protection.
Step 3: Keep extending this out as people join.

If we decide that someone in the bloc needs to die, we just nominate someone to shoot them, I'll take that as first responsibility if required.

That said, I think this would work if we just all said "we'll shoot anyone that shoots into the bloc" without the whole circle thing, but I'm just spitballing at this point.

Fluff?

I don't think so...?
This gal's giving me bad vibes on the basis that he's scum-reading people trying to implement ordered, townie strategies.

Shoot: Gorkington

I'm going to be dead by the time I'm home from work tomorrow so I want somebody fun to talk to in the dead thread.

Have a good night everyone!

Can we PLEASE stop this anti-town play? It isn't helping

Why are you waiting for a flip?

Maybe gork flips scum.

In my opinion, a game this big implies at least the possibility of multiball, ergo an early scum hit shouldn't lead to a straight up town read.

I wonder if the random shots are more towny than scummy

I would have thought random shots were more scummy. At least they benefit scum unless they hit town by chance, and scum isn't going to shoot scum, but may very well shoot a townie under the pretence of randomness.

Or they may just not be thinking this through.

Coming out of the random stage they look more scummy than at first but I'd argue that they look as much reckless/poor townplay at least initially. Personally I'm more likely to read people that at townbloc-ing as more intelligent town on the basis that they actually want order and to work out the game but it's too early IMO to put anyone random shooting down as scum.

I've decided that the circular protection scheme is just too much admin at the moment, and I think just group-think is fine for now.

So I'm starting the Players Rightly Impressively Correctly Killing Scum club. Anyone who wants to join the PRICKS club just has to say that yes they want to join the PRICKS club. I'm going to assume Taly is part, and I'm also part. To join you must still have your Day 1 kill.

Rules:
1. You can only kill people who have shot a member of PRICKS, unless...
2. A majority of PRICKS members decide to kill someone (this could be inside or outside of PRICKS), in which case someone can shoot that person or will be nominated to kill them
3. Shooting outside of 1 or 2 will result in removal from PRICKS, although not being shot unless you shot into PRICKS.
4. You retain membership in PRICKS if you shoot within rules 1 or 2

Rule 2 will not come into effect until there are 11+ members of PRICKS or ~48 hours from now.

Remember reading this on my skim through which is why I requested to join in my first post... it's better than no strategy.

This isn't a townbloc. This is purely self-preservation.

Do you honestly think everyone who shot already is scum?

If not, you seem very happy to not include them into your 'town circle'. If it's a townbloc, you'd be letting people in based off of reads and/or gut. Not having a shot left.

Not so much, but they're useless in the circle since they don't have a shot anymore to offer protection to the rest of the circle. Maybe once we get critical mass they can join, otherwise they're on their own till tomorrow.

Agreed. If we can get PRICKS big enough it means we can at least act as a voting quorum would in an ordinary game and I think that's the best strategy we've got right now (NOT that I would necessarily say we should continue it into day two when we've got more evidence to go on, although keeping the element of collective control is probably a good idea. Allowing individuals to act on their own generally never leads to best results for the group as a whole and I would expect to see scum exploiting that fact).

Shoot: BBmolla

I realized something.

Shit wait, he's probably a cit

Exactly the point about not leaving it to individuals to act of their own. Let's have some collective unity as a town.

EBCs (my acronyms are better, mod) know that they win once they're the only faction, so if we're all EBCs then the game is over. You not realising this says you're not an ECB.

Stating the blatantly obvious, the post you're referring to as a scum-slip objectively isn't so why do it? Apart from to push wedges between people and set up targets for mis-kills? (This is an all round silly post from either alignment)

Recommended shots:
McMenno, Chickadee, Momrangal, Not_Mafia, Davsto, Austerity, randomidget, Kokichi Oma, SnarkySnowman, Vaxkiller, TheBrie, Harambey180, StefanB, light_ganski, Theta Alpine, katokashi, Archwing, wingedcatgirl, Gammagooey, Bins, ooba

I do get the point of just shooting people who haven't posted as opposed to those who have in the early stages but it does minimise the information you end up with and your proposed shots list is far too long to even have a majority chance of hitting scum, even if by pure dumb luck all the scum were in it. Try developing some actual reads based on posts and tell people what you're thinking, worst case scenario then if you're town is that you're wrong but other people can glean information from what you're thinking. Super long lists like this make me think you want to LOOK like you're looking for scum without putting any effort in to solve the game.

Everyone is an echo bay cit.
it’s the apocalypse and it’s the last man standing wins.
Game broke you are welcome. Continue with your killing.

Are you scum or just nihilistic?

My bet is scum.

Cool.

I wake up to see shots fired and quite a few people NOT following an ordered strategy, and all 6 of the people killed during this time flipped town.

>

There's very minimal possible reason as to why they'd be shot this early, and there's no answer better than the other for the most part. WIFOM.

*If there's anyone that has any decent argument behind the motivation of a kill; then explain it to me, because I'm failing to find reasoning behind people dying.

>

We did not get ANY valuable reads, or discussion from these killed people, because someone just shot randomly without really engaging.

Numerically, it's more difficult for town to win now since we've had plenty of townkills and very little reference over them.

Does anyone STILL want to keep "thinning the herd"?

Thank you, thank you, thank you for talking sense. At the moment the most townie person in this game.

[light_ganski]

@light_ganski - have we played together before? Your name and avatar seem familiar but I can't place which game exactly and the ones my instincts said you were in you weren't. Any chance you remember?

Can't find a game in which we played together but you modded Micro 651, I was scum in that (where I accidently self hammered due to my post restriction, don't think I've played on this site since then)

[light_ganski]

Catch Up Part Two: Pages 11-25

See.

This shit right here is another reason why random shooting is bad.

Now we CAN'T figure out why

Varsoon

believed

Iconeum

was a better shot and more likely scum.

Taly gets more town the more I read. If you're not in the bloc and really have to shoot to satisfy some inner urge, let's try and hear why at least.

heya

taly you're not going to be particularly happy with this game if you take it as seriously as you are

Hmm, why not play to win as town? Scumread this

we can make a kill-list and begin to shoot it top down in order to control all killings. This works if there are enough of us so we can ninja the kill each time.

fp'd by crazy Taly and others

Or, we could discuss our reads and vote as a group for who we want to kill next like we would in any other game. Mad idea I know, but

One thing I've been considering, at some point the mod's activity levels is gonna play a part of this game since kills need to get resolved before moving onto the next one. I'm assuming any scum have daychat so have the advantage in terms of coordination. Probably a decent idea for us to have a good handle on the xyzzy's activity habits before scum start exploiting it against us. Admittedly I dunno how they do that without painting a massive target on themselves...but still, worth considering.

Good point but how would we do this?

On the subject of mod activity, I think we implement a town-rule. Anyone submitting a kill within say 1 hour (at this player level this seems safe) of the mod resolving a kill should be the target of any towns kill.

ie, if you're on and you see someone shoot within an hour of a previous kill being resolved by mod, shoot the person that sent that kill and break any scum cycle that's happening.

I get this on the basis of not being able to extract information in these situations, but kills should still eb agreed on by the group if possible

i was hoping to do this before 10 pages of junk but just to let ya know

my plan is to absorb catharsis from this game like a sponge in an ever increasing pool of blood

Kill: Harambey180

Scummy why would you shoot people who haven't spoken at this stage.

I don't like the overexplanation you provide

Sidenote, why do people scum read overexplanation? I feel like I'm missing an obvious point on that but I've never really got it

There are entire pages of this game that are zero analysis I hate it (page 13 I'm looking at you)

Recommended shots:
Chickadee, Momrangal, Not_Mafia, Davsto, Austerity, randomidget, Kokichi Oma, SnarkySnowman, Vaxkiller, light_ganski, Theta Alpine, katokashi, Archwing, wingedcatgirl, Gammagooey, ooba

Updates: Removed Bins (and the already dead)

Though, it's more likely just half of the players there are scum.

Already said how much I dislike just listing the inactive players to shoot. SCUMHUNT PLS.

I kinda wanna dayvig Lovebird. Should I dayvig Lovebird?

No but his early stuff doesn't fill me with confidence (I'll come back to that)

Someone said I used my shot randomly, not true. I scumread ank.

Not good enough, why did you scumread him. Analysis before kills please

I could also show some meta to display how this is fairly NAI for me especially earlygame, or that setup spec and similar are arguably a way of scumhunting, but regardless of those your read is bad simply through the fact that the entire type of "scum have to fake scumhunting" reads are basically not relevant in multiball+traitor games.

Anyone saying "this is NAI for me" rubs me up the wrong way: if it is anyone could find that out from meta so why can't someone else point that out? JUst a minor concern though

In my opinion it’s not a normal game of mafia. More like a party game to kill the time.

FOS Srceenplay

stop being anti-town, actually partake or don't bother

The worst being bulletproof might indicate traitor if it's multiball considering that the traitor that already flipped had a bulletproof but I'll confess that's only a suspicion

Probably time to share what I was thinking. Scum have a LOT more to lose by getting shot than town do. So I think the PRICKS are likely to contain at least a few scum, probably more especially if there are multiple teams.

Gonna go back and look at the circumstances surrounding people joining. I may be willing to take a shot in there even knowing that it will get me shot-- although I'll definitely discuss and not just yoloherotime it. (Because that has worked out so well thus far.)

Part one definitely, but that still doesn't merit a shot that hasn't been voted on. Thank you for being pro-town and saying you'd discuss it though (townpoints for you)

Well, it shows that you prioritized humor over avoiding getting seen as scum.

That's something worth noting.

Is this townie though? Considering the number of people not wanting to take this game seriously I actually don't think so... by not putting up, she's not risking anything if she's scum

I think it's a lot closer to removing a target on your head, the target being the threat of a random kill. Discussion-based kills are a lot closer to lynches which is something you can actually fight; if you get randomkilled, there's nothing you can do.

And just because town lolshooting isn't working out... doesn't mean they're going to stop doing it.

I actually quite like your point here, discussion kills are better but at least you actually care about finding scum.

Are you town srceen?

Everyone is town

Really didn't expect to live... I guess someone saved me???? :/

tempted to vengeance shoot Vax but I don't know if that's actually a helpful thing to do.

Obvious scum bluff would vote if he wasn't already dead

In the same breath, I'm pretty aggravated with the game state. I feel like there's only a margin of people going with the voting idea, and I'm getting tired of being written off as

"too helpful"

or anything along the lines of being suspected because I'm putting in

EFFORT

.

Can we please have more of you? <3

22 pages fuck me

Comes in, says nothing does nothing. Please contribute

Agreed with Ausuka's assertion (post 547) that it's a multiball, which increases the possibility that the other bulletproof was another traitor? (the worst right?) Then again 3+ bulletproofs isn't unrealistic.

But right now, if I want anyone dead, it'd be Srceenplay. The gimmick where he insists we're all town just feels like a fake scum thing to me. It's overdone and he has far more conviction in it than what I think any townie should realistically have to the point where it's totally unnatural. Like, is 398 a real thought? It's basically Srceenplay engaging with the game normally except he adds "OH YEAH BTW WE'RE ALL TOWNIES LOL" at the end. Like, why write this as town who legitimately believes that we're all echo bay citizens? It'd be interesting to see what he does when he realises that he was wrong about us all being townies, in any case.

Townpoints for you

I completly agree with the shot of Srccenplay, please someone do it!!!!

Why not do it yourself, after all you aren't in PRICKS... could be him just wanting someone else to take the fall if it goes wrong

IGMEOY

shoot:mom

YOLO

1)

You've made no assertion at all about any of the BP claims.

2)

Thanks for ignoring me, and

Vax/TW

for being sensible, and

StefanB/Ausuka

for directing a post about you.

3)

You've already used your shot, so this is a borderline shitpost. 29

VOTE: Screenplay

If anyone wants a shot on

Screenplay

, I encourage votes here. I'm still pushing for the Vote Count idea even though

Sando

and

StefanB

are the only people that's recognized its existence.

Happy to join people on this, have made my point about his anti-town play already

Not_Mafia

also posted in other places before even daring to look at this thread. His debut post was unbelievably underwhelming. 553

1)

Do you have a strategy for the town to go about this gamestate, or do you agree/disagree with the ones stated? Why?

2)

Thoughts on shooters that are alive?

Remember playing with him before I left this site for a while, might not be AI for him but I'd really like to see more as well

Also, I don't think it's known whether or not being BP is AI? I highly doubt it is, so I'm iffy here.

Maybe it's just sorta the fact that my theory for Mom!scum involved them being BP and they turned out BP that's making me see it as a bit of a confirmation so maybe it has the potential to be a little biased. I still think they're scummy regardless. It's just a final little bit that settles it for me yk?

Definitely confbias but I see your point, gonna ISO him once I'm done with this post

But being anti or sceptical of PRICKS

for good ressons

is probs towny

I'm not seeing a lot of this though, mostly just "zomg scum could join".

Townpoints for you too

NOPE

What then? If we leave it up to whoevers online then the scum in the block are gonna just flake out on using their kills, admittedly a tell but not one I'm really confident on reading. We could vote on the shooter I guess, but admin, urgh. I mean it matters not D1, but I think we should have a process in place for D2 onwards.

Literally anti town and anti WANKERS for me to explain in more detail rn sorry.

How do you suggest PRICKS decide on who kills? (I do get why this is though)

I don't think so...?
This gal's giving me bad vibes on the basis that he's scum-reading people trying to implement ordered, townie strategies.

You misread. Ank said it was fluff. That was me disagreeing.

Ah thanks for clearing that up

[light_ganski]

'Twas for the best.

I get this on the basis of not being able to extract information in these situations, but kills should still eb agreed on by the group if possible

As to the second point about shooting back at opportunistic kills post-resolve, my fear is that in later days scum are going to draw up a kill-list and just run through it to win the game. They can co-ordinate within themselves and know the mod activity, and they can artificially create their own end-game. 5 scum and 7 town left, scum just shoot 5 times in a row and we're left with 5 scum and 2 town, nothing townies can do at that point in time.

To stop this, the only option is to break the cycle, town need to be on top of it and kill the over-eager submitter, without waiting for everyone to get on board with it, since that'll take too long and scumplan comes to fruition.

Not something to be concerned about D1 I don't think, but something town need to keep in mind in later days.

Thanks for the explanation, and I now agree, but only on later days. Today/probably tomorrow we'll ensure the maximum of discussion.

[light_ganski]

22 pages fuck me[/quote

Don't tell people what they can't be

i think not mafia is scum cause he hasn’t shot yet

You activated my trap card

Shoot: Bins

Not Mafia's entire ISO. Was gonna look at some others first but this one is most... to the point

The worst part is, is this even AI for him?

I hate this game

[light_ganski]

Notable slankers:
Not_Mafia
Austerity
hebichan

Theta Alpine

katokashi

wingedcatgirl

PRICKS (and sometimes WANKERS and PRANKERS) members:
Sando
Taly
the worst
Iconeum
TheBrie
Chickadee

Wingedcatgirl

Theta Alpine

light_ganski

Comparing PRICKS with creature's slacker list (I don't disagree with it for the most part), I'd add randomidget to the slacker list too.

If we're considering that scum are more likely than not to have held their shots (though I wouldn't give TOO much weight to this), and that there's going to be at least a couple of scum on PRICKS for the sake of keeping out of the firing line, I'd lean scum on anyone who hasn't contributed much but is also on PRICKS. (Call me on this if it's bad logic though)

Other than those, on PRICKS I like the look of Sando and Taly. Both contributing and working and I've already addressed that in my walls. Not as sure what to think of the worst, lots of low content posts > makes me iffy but there's far worse people. TheBrie's not been as active, and most of her content's been focussed on shot analysis - though I see nothing wrong with that, 704 and 707 are constructive. Iconeum's been low energy, made several posts espousing the need for PRICKS and refused to give explanation for reads (265). Chickadee's said sod all too.

So townreading sando, taly, creature.

Town lean the worst for now.

Genuinely struggling to town read most others here.

At the frustrating point where I want to policy kill anti town actors but in this mess it'll probably do nothing for us.

My gut wants NM to go, my head wants to hear more from him. Though I'd like to see srceen bleed

Theta alpine, you're on PRICKS but you've not said much about people yet. What are you thinking? (and that goes for anyone else who isn't giving detailed thoughts tbh)

If people have questions give me them, I need something to help get me thinking

[light_ganski]

I like Theta's list tbh

I don’t.
There is a person in each of his pools I’m willing to shoot.

Who would you shoot out of his first pool? (with a reasoned argument)

I quite like the lists myself

[light_ganski]

I don't agree with all the points, but I think Theta's generally along the right lines and well thought

[light_ganski]

The fuck just happened

[light_ganski]

Why do we put ourselves through this. I'm going back to sleep will think this through whenever I wake up

[light_ganski]

Okay I'm halfway through my readslist, going out for a couple hours then I'll finish up and post it

[light_ganski]

Sorting this player list is a nightmare but here we go

Town Bloc > ie. Shooting here warrants a shot from whoever's online

Taly - Probably the most constructive player in the game, has been sensible, made realistic arguments for who's town or scum (and is trying to sort people as town as well as scum), plus about the only person who gave their reasons for shooting someone
Sando - Looking for town not just scum and I give that great credit in this mess
Theta Alpine - Came in late, would like to see more but has been thoughtful and considered and has put forward who he thinks is town as well
Ausuka - Like 547 and 843, and agree with the point about srceenplay (864)
Davsto - I like this one, feels like a strong town analyser to me

Weaker town/in the middle > Will not shoot today BUT would like to improve my read of before I'd town bloc them

StefanB - Constructive
Vaxkiller - Not ready to townbloc but I don't see much reason why he'd be scum either. I would like to see a readslist or something similar here just so I know what you're thinking
The Worst - Feels genuine to me
TheBrie - Yes I'd like to see more, but I like what analysis this one has posted

Weak scum (PLEASE INTERACT)

Austerity - Really hasn't said enough that I get info from and I don't like that
Chickadee - 846 / 856, claims that Nero will likely kill him from meta, yet doesn't use then expectation he's gonna die soon to actually contribute. Seems to be disengaging whilst claiming he isn't disengaging
Lovebird - Not a fan of anything she's said, really
Wingedcatgirl - ANOTHER low energy player. Ughhh

Momrangal - Really not sure what to think on this one... null (can someone tl;dr the debate around her pls)
Nero Cain - Waiting on the replacement to be active before moving this off null

Stronger Scum Reads AND Anti-Town Players

Srceenplay

- Anti-town. The everyones town joke was passable at first, but 411, 434 and his shot indicates an anti-town mindset. Can't reach D2

Not Mafia

- Seems to not give a shit, the king of all lurkers, known from meta as an anti-town player in general who can't be trusted D2

Iconeum - Anyone who refuses to read people (265) and scumreads explanation (702) is a red flag for me
Randomigdet - Where are you? 3 nothing posts
Archwing - Has only posted to complain about the length of the game and moan, to the point where I'd forgotten he was in the game
BBMolla - The above two points apply

Open for questions if there are any

[light_ganski]

And yes, I am aware that I have way too many scum reads atm

[light_ganski]

I'd say shoot people who we think are scummy.

Yep, end of day, chat with PRICKS and people you trust and if you get a quorum I think go for it.

Aye I think this is the right strategy, discuss among PRICKS where we should put our shots

[light_ganski]

Just re-read a bit

So Not Mafia hasn't contributed to the game, but he was sure able to pop up to post #628

Maybe if I just

Shoot: Not Mafia

[light_ganski]

A duck after my own heart, I see

[light_ganski]

Who else do you think deserves bullets today worst?

[light_ganski]

Seems sort of reasonable. But how could the list work if it's not publicized?

No more that potentially having to publicise it makes it not so useful at all? I think it's a good idea but I haven't fully thought through the implications yet and putting it out there for others to think about too.

I do not understand what you said there. So I'll just repeat my question with more details.
How does anyone know they'll be shot unless they forfeit their shot, if the list isn't public?
Also, unless this is just one person's list, it has to be settled in public.

^seconded all of those questions

This sounds like a completely unworkable idea

[light_ganski]

Why have I come back to Sando dead?

At least NM was scum

[light_ganski]

Gamma looks more town to me off of 1052
Would like to re-iso the worst when I have time

[light_ganski]

I still think Taly's town, btw. 1035 and 1085 feel genuine to me, rather than scum covering their fake reads.

I get the Not Mafia/Taly associative but on that alone I'm not prepared to scumread. Taly's not the only one who's reaction to Not Mafia seems shitty IMO

[light_ganski]

what are your wolfreads?

right now random and bbmolla
pretty sure at least one of them is scum

Has random actually said anything else yet?

pEdit: Nopeeeee... why did I even bother ISOing then

[light_ganski]

I still townread Davsto (and for that matter Ausuka which is another name people have mentioned). Post 891 if you want my reads there

I mentioned Iconeum as a shot for today earlier and I still think that would be a good shot.

[light_ganski]

To the people saying there's fewer scum than we thought - 1) How many scum do you suppose we have, and 2) As it's multiball, it wouldn't be endgame until one of the teams is eliminated so...

[light_ganski]

Take the time you need, but don't tarry

[light_ganski]

I think the shot is best spent on the low-post still alive players, so we can actually play a game on D2 with a manageable number of players. Yes, this is actually pro-town.

Just an aside, low post still alive players... other than Magna (him plus BBmolla = 17 posts), no one has more than one post less than you. So by that logic you'd still be a reasonable target

[light_ganski]

...and the apathy level is going up again...

[light_ganski]

Bins was speculating that Not_Mafia was scum because he hadn't shoot yet.
Then Not_Mafia killed her.
Then a long time later (There were quite some shoots between Bins dead and the shoot of Not_Mafia) light_Ganski shoot him. (There were a lot of post from Light_Ganski if I remember correctly where she did mention Not_Mafia)

Thats how I remember the whole dead of Not_Mafia.

Basically, my logic behind the Not mafia kill:

Was already wanting to shoot him or srceenplay, hopefully both for obvious reasons. Preferred a Not Mafia shot cos I know what he's like with randomly hammering and general anti-town play, and he didn't seem to give a damn about the game, so didn't think it would be good if he somehow slipped through the net D1. Shot on that hunch and got lucky.

[light_ganski]

Vax not believing it's multiball actually looks genuine, somehow

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I'd have as well

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Okay it's gonna take me a little bit to make a proper post because I need to rethink about a few things in this game (I was blindsided by Taly flipping scum, for a start, he was pretty much my strongest townread), but that's incoming

[light_ganski]

Okay first thoughts:

Regarding the nightkills: this implies to me 2 teams and a serial killer as opposed to three teams. Firstly, the flavour implies this; we already know of grits and munitions companies and the existence of an 'executor' (which does not imply a second team in my opinion). Secondly, considering the number of relatively baseless/random shots people have taken I find it statistically unlikely that we haven't hit a third scumteam, whereas only one serial killer would have to slip through.

Secondly whilst I like Austerity's suggestion I don't see any reason that scum would co-operate? Firstly, if we're considering each team has 3-4 members it would suggest there's still several alive, and it would be more beneficial to them to shoot outside of themselves and get shot if we did this than waiting patiently to get shot or shoot their partners? And secondly, if there IS a third team it is possible the teams already have a majority in combination in which case we actually need the scum teams to shoot at each other in order to win this (and scum will need to shoot each other to win as well), so they would have no incentive to shoot at OUR reads but their own.

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I feel like if there's any unflipped/multi-shot bulletproofs they are more likely to be the SK? I think a one-shot BP SK is a bit too disadvantaged for this setup

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It's in our interest to get all anti-town factions and players but actively SK-hunting is probably easier when we've killed off the surviving team!scum

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My issue right now is that I'm struggling (again) to get proper town reads

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The fact that xyzzy explicitly suggests BPs and strongmen in the rules but no other special roles suggests not

Though they have said (1458) that not all mechanics are public so it's not impossible

I'd

probably

bet on SK > third team > vig though (over vig on that, over third team based on my explanation in 1463)

[light_ganski]

No thanks I'm in the middle of writing two major posts

[light_ganski]

Reads are incoming

Do you actually have a reason or a case for scum reading me btw? Cos I haven't seen one yet

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Trying to sort my thoughts out here
Not in any particular order:

Townier players

Fairly confident townread now on vax
Gammagooey looks better and better through D1 and I think he's town
Davsto and StefanB as well

Scummier players

Ausuka - this is what I mean about not. Being. Able. To. Townread. Players. In. This. Game/ This is not by any means a confident scumread but there's something in my gut niggling me about this one
Theta Alpine strikes me as a

possible

second partner to taly? Its a weak af read but those two's TRs of each other don't look at all natural
Austerity and wingedcatgirl both feel like lacklustre scum, not really rocking the boat or pushing anything hard (case in point wingedcatgirl's unnecessary hesitation in her D1 shot, I get caution and discussion because I'm generally a cautious player but this strikes me as scared scum)
Lovebird is likely scum. The disagreements with taly D1 doesn't strike me as townie vs scum but as one team vs the other and her entry today screams "I'm bragging about shooting scum". Ergo she is the most likely munitions goon I am seeing atm. The fact she DIDN'T just shoot me straight out

marginally

improves my opinion of this slot but I'm still highly suspicious

Spoiler: PRICKS question

I know some people have made the relevant point as to whether PRICKS membership is inherently scummy or not; for the most part I see it as NAI for this reason: IF YOU ARE TOWN ITS PRO TOWN TO STAY ALIVE, it means there's one more living townie and scum are one shot further from winning. Thereby joining PRICKS is an objectively good decision WHICHEVER ALIGNMENT YOU ARE, because not getting caught in the crossfire of day one's lolkills furthers your win condition either way, which is why there's

probably

both in it but I wouldn't view membership as evidence of

either

. Sorry for the capslock attack but I feel people are really overlooking this and it's a kinda obvious point. if there's another reason I should

specifically

be scumreading PRICKS please do tell

Second post coming up

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And yes there's a reason I've left worst out of this list I'll get to that in the next post

[light_ganski]

Sorry all I'm terrible at writing posts quickly, but I'm concerned *someone* is gonna shoot me unnecessarily and I won't be able to get all my thoughts out and I have some highly pertinent points to make here that no one else has brought up properly yet

So to the mysterious third nightkill.
First of all I do NOT buy the idea of there being a night vigilante in this setup, if anyone has reasons otherwise do tell us.

So that leaves us with SK or third scum team. I'm not completely ruling out the possibility of the latter, but I find it unlikely considering:

• > What we already know from the setup and flavour, it is strongly suggested that there are only two teams representing the two companies (grits and munitions) AND that flavour suggests the existence of a singular 'executioner' character (less so the second point but its still relevant)
  > The lack of strongman flips OR kills: we had one NK (TheBrie) that was presumably carried out by a strongman but none of the scum yet flipped were strongmen, and no-one has been strongman-killed during the day phase. This is weak evidence for there only being a strongman SK as opposed to there being strongmen on the scum teams (though I accept this is a much weaker point)

This leaves us with the problem of finding the serial killer, which is the main reason its taken me ages to make these posts, because this has been niggling me. How does one find an SK in this mess? How would one play as an SK in this mess? Thats what I've been trying to think through:

• > Firstly, whilst avoiding the day one
  shit
  shotshow is beneficial no matter your alignment its vital as SK... if you die you've lost. So whilst I don't think PRICKS membership is alignment indicative as to town vs group!scum,
  it is highly likely that the SK was within PRICKS
  
  > Secondly, in a single-ball game, playing as SK is considered so difficult and anti-fun by many players precisely because they've got to look townie enough not to be a lynch target and not townie enough or threatening enough to be an NK target. But in a game with at least two factions, where some players believe there's a third faction, and where it is possible other factions have traitors as grits had one, looking scummy is likely to draw shots from scum looking for the other team or looking to recruit their traitor (it was confirmed in signups this game had recruiting traitors, correct?). Thereby, an SK would best fulfil their win conditions by playing townie and not drawing scumreads

We also know that:

• > There is the explicit possibility in the sign up thread for multiple shot bulletproofs, and the worst has already claimed to be one, yet no other multiple shot bullet proofs have been flipped and as far as I recall there's no one else alive who a shot has failed on, which suggests that there is a dearth of 2+ shot BPs in this game

The worst in 1436 suggested he thinks he's the only multi shot BP, which could be innocuous but feels to me like the fact he KNOWS this is likely the case...

Because it would make sense for ONLY the SK to get extra BP shots, as if they don't in this set up their win condition (killing everyone else) is significantly more difficult to reach

Let me draw your attention to 1429:

we have had exactly zero non-1-shot and exactly zero strongman flips
discuss

I believe it is highly likely, as I have set out, that ONLY the SK has multiple BP shots, and ONLY the SK is a strongman.

The worst fits the profile of how I would expect a serial killer to play in this game. He has been generally townread and played an upfront open game, making more posts than any other player and generally being one of the more well-explained players. He was one of the earliest members of PRICKS (see 167, 169). He is also claimed two-shot bulletproof, and appears to believe he is the only one (1436).

At this point I am

fairly

confident in reading the worst as serial killer, but obviously I would like to see what others think of this and I will not be depriving myself of my shot on him anytime soon. Open for comment.

[light_ganski]

I have not decided where I will shoot today but I would NOT like to see the worst or lovebird survive to endgame, and I am seriously concerned that I can't work ausuka out.

[light_ganski]

also highly disinterested in hunting for a serial killer until we have 1+ more groupscum flip, minimum.

Very fair point, if I didn't think you were SK. But this reads of misdirection to me: "let's look for group!scum (which we're already doing) because I'm not group!scum so people won't shoot at me and I'll survive to endgame with unspent BP shot(s)"

[light_ganski]

damnit ganski I thought you were cool.

AtE

[light_ganski]

Blue dye and highlights, thank you for noticing

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"let's shoot scum with associatives first then if we don't win the game shoot other scumfucks"

Usually I would agree but IMO we've already got enough information to deduce the SK's existence

[light_ganski]

No, but they are safer because they are no longer at risk of being NKed.

And I'd rather hunt and eliminate both group!scum and the SK as quickly as possible, rather than leave one for later. Be vigilant of all threats, not just those that are most prominent

[light_ganski]

My issue with that is that I scum have no reason to play along, especially if there's multiple of them left

[light_ganski]

Only if it hits groupscum. If the SK is strongman it didn't last night

[light_ganski]

SO here is how I see it.

There were 3

scum

bad factions and now there are 2

Flips
2 grits goons plus a grit traitor 1 shot BP
1 munitions goon
???

So with 1 team completely wiped (I can only assume so. I cant imagine a 4 person scum team with 3 factions with what we have left... unless the rest of you are all scum, which is mind boggling) This gives us a good idea of what to expect with the other scum teams.

With 11 people alive, if the other teams follow the same exact setup, it means we would have 5 scum left (seems unlikely)

Im thinking the munitions scum team may consist of a goon + Strongman (and only be 2 ppl)
And the third team could be the same OR consist of 2 goons and a traitor.

This setup seems unlikely to me (vs scum teams with 3/4 members), and even if it turns out to be correct I don't want to presume we've got all of the grits, I don't want a nasty surprise in that regard

[light_ganski]

/Also think SK is more likely than third team

[light_ganski]

Rereading Lovebirds ISO I see what people meaned.
There was also a very early point about most scum are traitors, tell me where that came from?

I think that point was a misunderstanding of "there are mafia team(s) with at least 2 goons" as "the mafia teams ONLY have 2 goons"

Though I am fine with a lovebird shot too atm. Her activity today (and she's posted quite a few times) consists of bragging about the taly shot (1385, 1386, 1387), making a list in which she seems to want most people shot (1393) without reasoning, and threatening to shoot me (1473) without feeling the need to divulge why

[light_ganski]

That wasn't a terrible shot though

If you want to hipshoot people for hitting your townreads, can you please make those reads more clear? I had to go back to D1 to find any evidence of you TRing wcg

[light_ganski]

we have a maximum of 9 shots left d2.
mechanically shooting me is great but

contextually shooting me is a scum claim.

1. groupscum have to kill me to remove SK WIFOM
2. SK has to kill me because I'll out who they are d3

1 makes no sense to me

why?

[light_ganski]

Disregard that last post I get what you mean from 1608

I'm too slow

[light_ganski]

​​​​​​​​Theta Alpine, Echo Bay Munitions Co. goon, has died.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​[/color]

Austerity, Echo Bay Grits goon, has died.

Yous have made my morning

Feeling a LOT better about lovebird after the theta shot and flip, my working assumption was love as likely munitions and theta as possible grits so this makes her a lot townier in my eyes

[light_ganski]

3 town, 3 munitions, 1 grits, 1 SK?

I think 5 town, 2 munitions, 0 grits, 1 SK is also possible

[light_ganski]

Wait lemme read it again

[light_ganski]

I feel like it *could* be the full death flavour, but I'm not saying that for certain

[light_ganski]

Tbh I wasn't reading theta as a likely partner for NM either, but ymmv

The fact he did flip munitions is why I'm feeling lovebird as more likely town now

[light_ganski]

I'm gonna re-ISO ausuka and davsto real quick. Confident that gamma is town

[light_ganski]

Confident that gamma is town

Elaborate on this please.

Read him as town in general anyway and can't see the scum motivation behind the wcg shot

Ausuka your entire ISO pings me

and I don't like it

[light_ganski]

Gamma shot @ WCG was god awful but considering I hip shot someone I thought was scum I guess it can come from town. Contend that WCG was 10 times townier than Toranaga but ya

It reads way more as a dumb townie shot methinks

I can't re-read her ISO at the moment as I need to go out in the next 5 minutes but as soon as I'm on the train I'll sit down and think about it

[light_ganski]

Will check in in half an hour

[light_ganski]

Okay Wi-Fi is shit and I'm phoneposting so I'll be brief for now

Ausuka could be traitor IMO but it's very unlikely and she's def not groupscum. My instant thoughts on her ISO were mainly paranoia (and I've been paranoid about her since D1) but I'm pretty sure she's town rn

Worst isn't munitions

Think munitions goon(s) are in davsto and possibly vax

[light_ganski]

I'm fine with shooting davsto in the very near future

[light_ganski]

Wooooow

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Did ANYONE else think ico looked Okay?

[light_ganski]

Grits traitor was BP though and we've got no munitions traitor as yet

[light_ganski]

I'm vanilla town. Vax claims next

If you two don't object I'll shoot davsto in my next post

[light_ganski]

He's already claimed BP so he won't die

Shoot: Davsto

[light_ganski]

I strongly suspect you anyway so if you are fakeclaiming that's enough evidence that you should die IMO

[light_ganski]

Either you're fakeclaiming and you're dead, which I'm fine with, or you're not and I don't have a BP scumread

[light_ganski]

I mean I am town and I wouldn't advise it

[light_ganski]

Other than the serial killer and possibly davsto I don't buy it

[light_ganski]

Ausuka your treatment of Vax in the last 12 hours has been really strange.

This

[light_ganski]

Thank you worst

#stilltowntoo

I don't see where Gemma is scummy? If you think otherwise shoot him but don't complain to me when he flips town

[light_ganski]

scum is proven to have bussed NM

Really? I thought theta on NM was the classic "I'll hard scum read my buddy but not actually shoot/vote them"


I mean your mileage may vary on that but it's how it looked to me


And I've explained my NM shot so

[light_ganski]

I hardly think either of those statements is unfair

[light_ganski]

I neither understand how my theta read is described as forced or false. It is how I was thinking at that moment and I stand by it

I also thought taly was obvtown and you're not accusing me of being grits for it

[light_ganski]

someone asked me why I thought theta was not scum with not_mafia early game - he pushed on not mafia pretty hard before and after his hebi shot when I was going through it for my first readslist and thought that wouldn't come from someone that was scum with him. Near the end of d1 I reread it and saw that it was literally a page between him saying he would shoot not_mafia if it weren't for prankers and then shooting hebi and then immediately going back to saying that N_M should die and the hebi shenanigans made that situation look a lot more like an excuse to use his shot on someone that wasn't N_M than a genuine scumread on N_M.

This is basically the point I was trying to make about theta and NM in better words, if you're reading this and your name is ausuka

My NM read was genuine as 24 karat gold and that's why I bloody shot him rather than pussyfooting round his scummy self like his partner did

[light_ganski]

It's vax's turn

[light_ganski]

At this point I feel like we've lost though. Ausuka's lost down a blind tunnel at me and at this point I barely have the effort to go on

I'll list my munitions read rn for clarity:

{ganski, worst, lovebird}
{ausuka, gamma} (these are only

almost

certainly not as opposed to definitely not)
-----
{stefan}
{davsto}
{vaxkiller}

Munitions is >98% in the last 3

Feel like grits is gone but if they aren't last is prob stefan

SK is still prob worst

[light_ganski]

Who were theta's last 4? I can't remember reading that

[light_ganski]

Oh me worst davsto gamma

I have no clue then. Will have to reconsider gamma. Don't expect it anytime soon though

[light_ganski]

I'm not tunnelling? I basically only started posting reads 12 hours ago...

Sorry ausuka, I've not had the best day mental health-wise and I'm getting wound up too easily. Didn't mean to come across rude here

[light_ganski]

You know what would have made this game a lot easier?


If we didn't lose 12 town before the first scumflip, which was a traitor >.>

Amen

[light_ganski]

I'm V/LA til wednesday evening due to exams, I'll be able to check in but only briefly

[light_ganski]

So you feel that Theta didn't try to get one of her buddys in the last 4? Vaxkiller is on her killlist, davsto claimed BP which screams if scum than traitor.

Been thinking about this. Judging by where we were, I doubt theta expected to survive anywhere near endgame and expected us to be looking it her list knowing she was scum. So yes, unless dav is groupscum instead of traitor, I think it's probable she didn't put her buddies on the list, expecting that people would be using it to scum hunt.

And I still can't really see a reason to scum read gamma. Right now, I stand by my list

If I had to pick, think vax should die first

If you can point to a townie TRing someone for something like "they gave their townreads" then I'll admit I was wrong.

Missed this earlier, I was trying to make the point that she was townhunting (which was a part of my sando townread too, if you'll check the same post)

[light_ganski]

Who claims next? Should be stefan if he hasn't already

[light_ganski]

Nope, the order is copied from the mod. It is only a list of claims, and what is mysing.
We are massclaiming at the moment.
I mean that would be very weird, yes I mean I don't known would I would have made from the order of the list.

Erm, I claimed as well. Citizen, post 1785

[light_ganski]

gg, was not expecting to win this one

Me neither

Well played!

[light_ganski]

And well modded xyzzy

[light_ganski]

I'm working

so hard

on these thousands of words of flavor text and I hope you're enjoying this ongoing story for which I have

at least

three more games worth of story already mapped out

I am very much looking forward to the next instalments