Mini 2011: Partition Mafia (Game Over)

[northsidegal]

VOTE: 1

Because fuck those guys.

?

[northsidegal]

i think a relatively even distribution implies about 1 scum per grouping, max two and one group containing all scum.

slightly disappointed that scum didn't go for some crazy combination like 1/1/11.

[northsidegal]

two scum in one group and then one group containing all town, that is.

[northsidegal]

people voting my group gets me more upset than i think it should.

maybe i shouldn't have joined this game if i want to keep my mislynch record clean.

[northsidegal]

fitz along with kokichi are about the only players who i can really confidently trust my ability to read. maybe bujaber.

[northsidegal]

I'm pretty sure kokichi is town.

[northsidegal]

Realmen can be town too for now.

[northsidegal]

Probably? I guess not enough time has passed for the presence of what I'm looking for to either manifest itself or not do so.

[northsidegal]

I'm pretty sure kokichi is town.

Why? I've done literally nothing but vote my own group. Which others have as well

I can peer into your soul.

(i think i have a pretty good handle on what your scumgame is and i'm not seeing any of it yet, but i'll keep you posted)

[northsidegal]

Realmen can be town too for now.

i'm pretty sure your townread of kokichi comes from meta. whats your basis for the townread on me?

i know gals like REAL MEN, but still, i'm interested in your explanation.

Tinfoil theories felt real. I'd expect scum to have already thought through some singular specific narrative they were going to push, which that didn't feel like.

[northsidegal]

I'm pretty sure kokichi is town.

Why? I've done literally nothing but vote my own group. Which others have as well

I can peer into your soul.
(i think i have a pretty good handle on what your scumgame is and i'm not seeing any of it yet, but i'll keep you posted)

What games are you using to meta here

Fixed

it's primarily from mini normal 2005 where I noticed scum kokichi in the first two pages, and i've played and modded games that had town kokichi in them.

i wouldn't really say it's from a single specific game - i've played or read a lot of games that kokichi's been in.

[northsidegal]

Realmen can be town too for now.

i'm pretty sure your townread of kokichi comes from meta.

Pretty sure it comes from being scum together.

i'm sorry, but that's a hilariously surface-level way of examining the game.

[northsidegal]

just a request - instead of saying things like "i think there are scum in group one", could people be more specific and talk more about their reads on people in specific? it's hard to engage with a statement like "there are scum in group X" without first asking "okay, who's the scum in that group?", so i would prefer to not ask that question every time someone says that - going straight to the person specific reads makes things easier.

Based on a quick read, northsidegal and koki have stood out to me as more likely to be scum.

But I'm also a bit perplexed by the over-the-top group talk here. Sure, I get that it's the theme of the game but I struggle to understand the relevance of statements like "No one not from Group 2 is voting for Group 2". I don't get the point! There are three scum, not 10.

So wisdom with his whole "pretending to sound useful" thing is also someone I need to look more closely at.

I like Cakez, I like Dramonic, I like BuJaber.

My mind has a complicated relationship with Muffin.

i don't understand how there wouldn't be any relevance? unless you believe it's the case that it doesn't really matter to scum which group actually goes through as the lynch (which i would be interested to hear), scum presumably have some group that they would prefer went through as the lynch and a group that they would prefer

didn't

go through. i agree with you that people should be speaking more about individuals than about groups in general, but i still think there's relevance.

could you explain your dramonic townread?

see what I don’t like about this setup is that it’s so fucking scumsided.

in normal games for every scum that die, a town gets nightkilled

over here a fuckton of town die even if we bag a scum because of this AoE group bullshit

meh, that's true, but it's also true that this game is similar to nightless in that scum don't have much of an easy ability to just remove the voices they don't want to hear - they have to do it through dayplay.

[northsidegal]

With varying degrees of subtlety group 3 has people from each of the 3 groups willing to vote for it.
Could be scum lead.


Pedit - RMOJ yeah but they still have to keep doing these partititions every day thereafter. It might end faster but I think it's probably balanced.

bujaber, is there anyone in specific you're actually scumreading right now?

[northsidegal]

"I'm pretty sure kokichi is town"

Easy to say the words, but a lot harder to back up.

When questioned on this by Kokichi, northside's answer just doesn't stack up.

When you're only 100 posts into the game, reasoning like "I know your scumgame and I'm not seeing it yet" does not justify statements like "I'm pretty sure you are town".

My thinking here is that northside threw out a townread in an attempt to look like they're working out the game, without actually having the reasoning to back it up. On the other hand, my expectation is that town would be more likely to actually go from reasoning ---> expression of townread. Whereas this looks a lot more like Expression of townread ----> Oh fuck I don't have much reason for saying that uhhhhh BLAND GENERIC VAGUE STATEMENT GO.

do you think that i'm stupid?

because the only way that what you could be saying is true is if that was true.

i may be bad at scum, but i'm fairly certain that i'm not stupid - i would never just make some random statement without any justiifcation just to keep up some sort of appearance -

nobody

who's scum outside of the newbie queue does that. if you can give me an example of you catching someone off of that i'll take my words back, but scum just don't do that. even as scum people can come up with believable enough explanations for any of their faked reads. in faked, i've often found that overexplained reads are more of a scumtell than underexplained ones.

like, this statement:

When you're only 100 posts into the game, reasoning like "I know your scumgame and I'm not seeing it yet" does not justify statements like "I'm pretty sure you are town".

is just not true. it's just not. how is an early townread on kokichi because elements of his scumgame haven't manifested themselves yet not perfectly valid?

141 is also empty and just throwing shade at dramonic, when northside actually has no way of knowing whether there is a more complex thought process underlying dram's post.

it's not empty nor is it "throwing shade"? i mean, it's "throwing shade" in the sense that i'm telling him that what he's saying isn't valid, but i think his throught process there was pretty clear - he said that my townread on kokichi came from being scum together.

if there

is

something more complex there than that then dramonic can correct be, but i don't think so.

i mean, do you think that what he said is reasonable? both of you seem to be starting from the exact same point that i am

really bad

and make absolutely level-0 plays like fabricating reads i have no explanation for, and townreading my scumbuddy for nothing.

[northsidegal]

I would not mind offing 2 but I feel like 1 is our best bet still. Gal I've talked about, Eddie Cane and fitz are super underwhelming. DV not super impressive either.

it's been ~20 hours since either of eddie cane or fitz posted. what makes them underwhelming to you?

maybe it's just hypersensitivity to my own group, but i feel like people have been "okay with" group 1 going since the start of the game even without much real reasoning. i'm not sure why that would be specifically, but that's how it feels.

[northsidegal]

by the way, anyone have thoughts on the likelihood that scum decided on equal sized groups first and then just used RNG to distribute the people inside of them?

[northsidegal]

he explicitly said that he was V/LA for mother's day? i can agree with you in general that pop-ins to the thread like that that don't show much of an effort to sort come from scum more often than town, but in this case i don't really think that's a good place to apply it to.

why would you be more okay with lynching a group of people with very little content who you don't really have much of a solid read on more than a group that you'd be more confident in containing scum?

what's your read on me, by the way?

[northsidegal]

i don't understand why the group that you're most confident has scum is the group who has a single person whose posts you don't like, a person whose "ISO has nothing that makes [you] lean either way", me who you're apparently not sure about, and DV, who was "not super impressive".

explain this for me? i hope you see how it's reasonable that i'd assume that group 1 wasn't your most confident given the way you're describing things.

[northsidegal]

i don't think that actually makes sense.

[northsidegal]

Should we be pausing at L-1 for claims? Or do we think this is mountainous?

It's at least not

confirmed

mountainous - I asked the mod

[northsidegal]

{kokichi, pine, Riku} contains at least two scum
All of them have felt really fake when it comes to suspecting group 2

Still don't think kokichi is scum.

[northsidegal]

oh boy

[northsidegal]

I. Already. Did. Its. One. Shot. And. Detects. If. There. Is. Scum. In. A. Group.

that seems game-endingly powerful if it hit a group with all town.

if i had to guess (and assuming kokichi is telling the truth, which i believe), i'd say scum were probably in some way informed of what roles would be in the game.

[northsidegal]

i think i'm in favor of swapping realmen with one of Pine or riku and then lynching group three. not sure if riku is just lynchbait or not yet, still confident in my ability to sort fitz given more posts and other people can probably sort deasvail better than i can, so that move gets rid of most of my suspect / unsorted slots and should be pretty revealing in terms of whether we're on track or completely off on my townreads.

Spoiler:

1	2	3
DeasVail	BuJaber	dramonic
Eddie Cane	Kokichi Oma	REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE
havingfitz	Pine	SirCakez
northsidegal	riku	zMuffinMan
	Wisdom

Group 1

(3): SirCakez, dramonic, zMuffinMan

Group 2

(4): riku,

BuJaber

,

Kokichi Oma

, Pine

Group 3

(3):

Eddie Cane

, havingfitz,

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Not voting: 3 (DeasVail,

northsidegal

,

Wisdom

)

[northsidegal]

gal why is realmen town

it's a light read, he's had a few observations that seem to come from a pretty genuine mindset.

actually slightly reconsidering looking back over the ISO.

[northsidegal]

and eddie cane for that matter

i expect eddie cane to more aggressively get himself townread as scum. maybe that's a bad assumption / won't hold true for this game, but i'm not really interested in lynching in my own group at the moment anyways.

[northsidegal]

@Mod, V/LA through thursday

[northsidegal]

dramonic, do you always do this "i already caught all of the scum" thing? completely serious / game-related question.

[northsidegal]

Wis before you swap I'd recheck the bujaber townread. That'd be how this turns disastrous.

[northsidegal]

Maybe riku over pine? (After rechecking bujaber townread / meta)

Haven't played against scum pine yet but I've scumread him as town before for weird behaviour. Still not confident riku is scum and not just scummy town, though.

[northsidegal]

unless the team is exactly {eddie, kokichi, muffin} (which i doubt), i think i'm leaning towards group 3 today.

disagreeing with wisdom here - i haven't reread to fully solidify this yet, but i still townread kokichi and looking back i think people were too quick to townread bujaber.

[northsidegal]

i get the feeling that i'm going to lose this game

that being said, i still townread wisdom and i'm pretty sure that eddie/muffin aren't partnered, so i feel pretty safe in voting 3

[northsidegal]

the way you went sort of "one man vs everyone" yesterday on the swap thing felt like a real thing you believe in.

maybe that's a lazy read, though.

[northsidegal]

UNVOTE:

damn

maybe lynching g1 is best after all

whether its eddie or realmen the other scum has to be nsg here

i really think the read you're wrong on is bujaber.

[northsidegal]

I don't buy this eddie is town stuff. Eddie's move was anti-town. Eddie's move doesn't make sense from town pov. Eddie has to be scum.

i think there's never a world in which bujaber actually believes this. i think his thought process is a lot more complex as town - complex to the point where other people can't even understand it, from what i remember of the games i've read / played with him.

[northsidegal]

Town!eddie doesn't know the scum it would be by sheer luck.

what kind of statement is this?

do you think town eddie is completely incapable of having a correct scumread?

Also if 2 scum are in g3 (means koki is scum so wisdom isn't) then 1 scum isn't in g3 so you still have to consider who is scum between muffin/nsg.

false dichotomy - you're implying that it's either 1 or 2 - it's completely possible (even if you consider it unlikely) that it could be three. i really don't like you using this reasoning to push one scum within me/muffin.

[northsidegal]

wisdom i'm town, i think you're town and i'm not going to let my lynch be the reason town loses this.

i know i've been kind of disengaged with this game and that's close to my scum meta but i actually care about this game. i'm not letting my own lynch happen.

[northsidegal]

Get better.

[northsidegal]

I think this is actually a good thing, actually - i've found recently that the threat of my own lynch as town really gets me engaged.

Wisdom - meta should really be something you care about when it's a lylo-game-changing-decision, and

especially

in as clear a cut case as my meta.

also

right
and who is scum with bu?

Fitz, probably - i'm going to read over it more. i still think it's unlikely that we don't hit two scum by lynching group three so the specifics don't matter to me that much - making sure eddie / zmuffin isn't a team would make more sense as a priority.

[northsidegal]

Yeah well it's hard for me to consider alternatives when there's only one team that makes sense to me.

And yes technically there could be 3 scum in group 3 but that would mean fitz and rmoj are both scum (both under suspicion by a lot of people in day 1) decided to put each other in the same group. So resoectfully no. It's not a false dichotomy.

i don't think you really responded to what i said about the eddie comment.

what about kokichi? and yes, it's still a false dichotomy even if you'd like to paint the scenario as unlikely. realmen wasn't even suspected that much - there was talk of swapping him

out

of group three and then lynching there: he was the towniest of that group.

[northsidegal]

there wasnt

talk

, thats what happened

shows how good my memory is.

anyways, all that does is strenghten my point - RMOJ wasn't really under a lot of suspicion at all. it's not some entirely unrealistic prospect for scum to place both of them in the same group to the point where it's not a scenario worth considering.

what i want to say is that that makes me think it's {bujaber, fitz, RMOJ} - i think that might be confbiasing myself a little, though.

[northsidegal]

That he scumreads koki? Why not put him in g1 and vote g1.
That he scumreads me? Why not put koki in g1 and vote g3.
That he scumreads koki and RMOJ/fitz? Why did he justify it by blaming me for the vote. Especially when koki would have been killed by a pre-switch g2 lynch.

I don't understand how the things you suggest he should have done in any way translate to a better plan given the reads.

Why would he put kokichi in group 1 if he were scumreading kokichi?

What in the world

leads you to suggest that that would be a more sensical approach from town!eddie's perspective? I'm not being facetious here - i genuinely do not understand.

[northsidegal]

by the way wisdom, mind unvoting?

[northsidegal]

That he scumreads koki? Why not put him in g1 and vote g1.
That he scumreads me? Why not put koki in g1 and vote g3.
That he scumreads koki and RMOJ/fitz? Why did he justify it by blaming me for the vote. Especially when koki would have been killed by a pre-switch g2 lynch.

I don't understand how the things you suggest he should have done in any way translate to a better plan given the reads.

Why would he put kokichi in group 1 if he were scumreading kokichi?

What in the world

leads you to suggest that that would be a more sensical approach from town!eddie's perspective? I'm not being facetious here - i genuinely do not understand.

Put yourself in his shoes.

A group of 2 and a group of 3. All you know is you want to move a scumread to one of them. Why pick the bigger group that could contain more town? It's risky for no reason.

Why are you thinking only in terms of numbers and completely ignoring reads?

Why do you think eddie would think that way?

[northsidegal]

Like, he literally just flat out said his reasoning. It's not that hard to follow.

fitz and ROJ have a good bet of being scum, so do you and fromr PoV I just made group 3 a confirmed scum lynch, and you gamethrowing morons already fucked day 1 up the ass do if you're town I dont wanr ro hear your bullshit whining, and buj is quickvoting in lylo so he can have a present

[northsidegal]

It doesn't even matter that much if bujaber is scum - i'm still leaning towards it, but i'm not hugely convinced of it. what i do think is that voting group three is pretty much the only thing that makes sense.

[northsidegal]

by the way wisdom, mind unvoting?

yes
we're lynching you today

enjoy gamethrowing two days in a row.

[northsidegal]

i get the feeling that i'm going to lose this game

that being said, i still townread wisdom and i'm pretty sure that eddie/muffin aren't partnered, so i feel pretty safe in voting 3

Wasnt I your top tr? You realize that if there isnt 2 scum in group 3 we lose right?

yes, and you still are. i just don't think there's 1 or less than 1 scum in group 3.

[northsidegal]

why do you ask Wisdom to unvote G3 when 1) there isn't a very good chance it is going to be quicklynched considering half the game is in it and 2) you just got done hypothesizing that there were three scum in it. ???????

Wisdom was voting G1.

[northsidegal]

Couldn't disagree more with NSG here. NSG TR officially gone.

What exactly do you disagree with? I'm fairly confident that my reasoning is sound.

I know I'm town, and i'm townreading wisdom. That leaves 3 scum distributed among the other two groups. Given that, unless i believe that

both

eddie

and

muffinman are scum, group 3 makes the most sense as the lynch.

[northsidegal]

don't like fitz's read change on me - reads as if he's fabricating reasons to set up to vote G1. that being said, could just be me being hypersensitive to my own group lynch again.

[northsidegal]

i would say "i can't wait until endgame", but 1) sometimes i wonder if you should be burden of proficiencied and thus you'd be scum and 2) losing this game just to prove you wrong would bring me no joy.

[northsidegal]

1) Wisdom, why don't you care about meta on me? I will literally never understand players who have this philosophy.
2) Does something about my reasoning in 1965 not make sense?

[northsidegal]

by the way, i was thinking about what eddie said about kokichi being confscum due to the role not being public. i really don't know how realistic of an idea it is: for one, (although this might be among the weaker reasons? depends on how much i trust my own read), i really don't feel like this is kokichi's scumgame. for two, especially given that we now know that at least two out of the original four from Day 1's group 3 are town, you have to wonder what kokichi's plan would have been as scum - fake a guilty on his own group and get himself lynched?

if

kokichi is scum i think it almost certainly implies that (at least) one of the swapping roles is scum and the entire thing was planned out from the start, although that seems exceedingly unlikely to me. occam's razor still seems to point towards kokichi being town, so i have to wonder if i should reconsider my eddie read.

[northsidegal]

i take immense joy on the fact you cant scumread me in this position

I can literally claim scum and yet youll keep townreading me

you really have

zero doubts

about me being scum?

why?

i'm not sure i entirely understand where this even came from in the first place - as far as i know, all that you said was "i was pushing bujaber and PoE". mind elaborating?

[northsidegal]

And, i don't care how confident you are - don't ignore my questions.

[northsidegal]

you have to wonder what kokichi's plan would have been as scum - fake a guilty on his own group and get himself lynched?

This has been discussed a million times

quote it for me?

by the way, i was thinking about what eddie said about kokichi being confscum due to the role not being public. i really don't know how realistic of an idea it is: for one, (although this might be among the weaker reasons? depends on how much i trust my own read), i really don't feel like this is kokichi's scumgame. for two, especially given that we now know that at least two out of the original four from Day 1's group 3 are town, you have to wonder what kokichi's plan would have been as scum - fake a guilty on his own group and get himself lynched?

if

kokichi is scum i think it almost certainly implies that (at least) one of the swapping roles is scum and the entire thing was planned out from the start, although that seems exceedingly unlikely to me. occam's razor still seems to point towards kokichi being town, so i have to wonder if i should reconsider my eddie read.

or it spews bujaber as town and a little wisdom

?

explain? not sure what you mean.

And, i don't care how confident you are - don't ignore my questions.

I am scum, i can do whatever i want. You won't vote me anyway.

-shrug-

whatever, i guess i can just be satisfied with you looking like an idiot after flips. (that's still assuming you're town because i really don't see what you'd be accomplishing doing this as scum, outside of maybe just bluffing to look towny and hoping that nobody calls you on it)

[northsidegal]

well, this is fun.

[northsidegal]

i really don't feel like this is kokichi's scumgame

can you respond to 1853?

a lack of utterly horrible reasoning / opportunism in voting. i also think that he has just a different style when posting when he's scum as compared to when he's town, so as the game went on i felt more comfortable with the read.

[northsidegal]

sadly lynching my group is end game, so we need to lynch in 1 and 2. Anyone considering voting 3 is a scumclaim.

how?

[northsidegal]

NSG you still think 2 scum in my group?

yes. i don't think wisdom is scum, i don't think

both

eddie and zmuffinman are scum.

[northsidegal]

the way you went sort of "one man vs everyone" yesterday on the swap thing felt like a real thing you believe in.

plus, what he's trying to do today makes no sense to me as coming from scum except for some crazy bluff.

[northsidegal]

-shrug-

it'd be a lot bolder of a play as scum than i guess i'm used to seeing.

i'm not exactly sure how i expect this day to end anyways, but i'd say it's probably in either my lynch or group 2's lynch. lynching group 3 would require everyone outside of it plus one person

inside

it (or some other similar combination), which seems unlikely to happen to me.

[northsidegal]

Don't know what nsg is talking about. If going by meta alone koki is scum. Add everything else and he's obvscum.

Wisdom I don't want to lynch you on the off chance that nsg isn't just town and derping hard here. Vote with me?

Explain your meta read.

Explain how in

any way

i'm "derping". Seriously. As far as I can tell nobody has refuted my logic on wanting to lynch group three.

You yourself

have been making logical fallacies that i have pointed out.

[northsidegal]

like, really.

the problem is not with me here.

i'm not "derping" in any way that makes me look scum - the accusation gets me really angry.

[northsidegal]

Bujaber - why do you scumread me? If I'm town here,

in what way am i "derping"?

[northsidegal]

muffinman, what's your read on me independent of an associative?

[northsidegal]

We are lynching nsg. nsg is scum no matter who is the third.

why?

[northsidegal]

I still think Eddie/muffin/koki is more likely than nsg/koki/RMOJ

From my pov the options are (assuming wis town):
Eddie/muffin/koki
Eddie/nsg/koki
Koki/nsg/rmoj
Muffin/nsg/koki

math says nsg is more likely scum than eddie
Fitz will never vote with me. G2 won't vote g2. I tried to change your mimd but couldn't. I literally can't get enough votes.

Not how I imagined it but VOTE: group 1

remind me again why you've completely discounted the possibility of anyone in group 3 being scum?

like, where are you coming from with

nobody

in your group being scum?

[northsidegal]

my bad, misread - i think the number of combinations threw me off.

i still don't believe you're entertaining the thought of two scum being in group 3, though.

[northsidegal]

bujaber, unvote for a second, because i seriously want to talk about this because from the way i'm currently approaching the game there's literally no chance town wins if you're voting me (not necessarily you specifically, just saying)

eddie and nsg both ignore my post and push other angles

lel

you've already shown me that you don't care about interacting with me. if you actually care about a response, your reasoning for:

muffin/Kokichi/fitz
muffin/Kokichi/Realmen
Eddie/Bu/muffin

fitz/Bu/Realmen

and

fitz/Kokichi/Realmen

really is not strong enough to warrant anything, especially the sort of confidence that you have. i think your assumptions about what scum would or wouldn't do are faulty (and probably are going to lose us the game).

[northsidegal]

as for your play today, the thing that bothers me most is how you're interacting with wisdom. i think if i were town in your shoes and i thought wisdom was town making a game-throwing move, i'd be doing everything in my power to change his mind - instead it feels a bit like you've thrown in the towel

i don't have any pretense that i can change his mind given his reputation for tunnelling and given that i already was kind of disengaged from this game. especially given that the move that i currently view as the only way town can win this (lynching group 3) becomes basically an impossible task with wisdom committed to lynching us, yeah, i guess you could say i've "thrown in the towel". at the very least, i don't feel confident in my ability to somehow come back from this.

(also i think the "enjoy throwing the game two days in a row" comment was disingenuous, given you didn't voice any discontent with his decision D1 apart from asking him to check the buj read). you haven't been doing much in the way of game-solving (e.g. unless you think all three scum are in G3, at the very least you should be doing more to sort me+eddie, though i guess your question here counts as doing that to some extent)

i had no problems with what he was doing yesterday at the time, it was more of a comment looking back.

you seem like someone who would care, so i suggest you look through my scum meta (i keep my wiki up to date) - i am very obviously town this game taking that into account.

[northsidegal]

My post continued: Meaning that pre switch we had some combination of 1/2/0 split or 0/3/0 split.

The combination of putting 1 scum in each group AND 1 of each of the guilty pool in each group is implausible to me and eddie being a mover. It is a very bad strategy imo and I don't think any of the living players are bad enough to think it's the way to go.

-pedit fine VOTE: unvote

Consider my vote on g1 for the time being.

i might have to go in a moment but i still want to take this time to talk so i should be back soon.

first, i just want to get a refernce frame for where you're coming from. i know that you're townreading wisdom, scumreading kokichi, i'm not sure if you're still scumreading eddie for the swap or not.

from where i'm standing i'm fairly confident that scum went for either a 2/1 or 3/0 split - i'm still conflicted on you!town or not, but let's look at this from the perspective of you being town.

do you think that

both

fitz and RMOJ are town?

[northsidegal]

btw, NSG should really be voting G3 atm if she thinks wisdom is town. in any world where it's eddie+me+someone in G3, the game would be over now

i've been saying all day that i think three is the best lynch choice. i haven't been voting out of just an aversion to voting early in lylo, but -shrug-

seems like the game will be ending soon anyways

VOTE: group 3

[northsidegal]

bu id rather you kept your vote on so we can start crossing off scumteams when they dont hammer

I didn't unvote because nsg asked. That prompted me to do it but I need to do it anyway because I'm probably going to be away for the next 10 hours

I would keep it otherwise for the wagon analysis. Actually just promise me you will unvote if it feels suspicious and nsg starts looking town because of how people join the wagon.

VOTE: group 1

for the record i've never understood hammertesting if there are still viable teams that

would

hammer (and despite what wisdom may tell you, this

is

the case)

that's not hammertesting, that's just opening yourself to a quickhammer

[northsidegal]

Pedit - yeah there's no hammertesting because either g1 has scum or we lose.... it's more about seeing how people justify joining the wagon and how quickly it builds up. Those things matter

yes - either G1 has scum or two townies voting it opens us up for an instant loss.

so, if you're townreading wisdom and you presumably know you're town...

then perhaps it's worth unvoting to discuss this a bit more.

[northsidegal]

no it isnt
nsg just doesnt want more scumteams to be ruled out
eddie/muffin is already out

don't be an idiot.

you should be able to think from my perspective and recognize that for me all "hammertesting" is is opening up a quickhammer.

[northsidegal]

have you changed your read on kokichi, NSG?

i'm definitely reconsidering it. coming around to bujaber!town.

[northsidegal]

it's 5 to lynch, not that i think eddie/muffin was realistic anyways.

[northsidegal]

hey wisdom, do you feel like responding to anything that i've said to you?

[northsidegal]

huh, forgot about fitz voting group 1.

[northsidegal]

from an objective standpoint eddie/muffinman being mechanically eliminated as a possibility is amazing, because now all it takes is anyone who already thinks that you're town to recognize that i'm town (or vice versa), and they should realize that group 3 is the best lynch.

[northsidegal]

Like, if anyone actually cares to listen or put the work in I am telling you right now that i am incredibly obviously town this game and i can just link you all of the relevant meta to show that. From there, knowing that there's maximum 1 scum in group 2, group 3 becomes the optimal lynch.

[northsidegal]

wow, that one's clever

[northsidegal]

I'm (pedit - was) pagetopping because i'm actually serious about this. If we take this as eddie/muffin being confirmed as not teamed, it's incredibly good. We can still win this if people are just willing to listen.

[northsidegal]

nsg, any great case for why muffin is xcum?

i'm no calling muffin scum?

[northsidegal]

it doesn't seem as if anyone cares to actually put the work in when a literal golden opportunity just presented itself. i don't feel like anyone is actually listening to what i'm saying, and i'm not just referring to wisdom.

[northsidegal]

nsg, any great case for why muffin is xcum?

i'm no calling muffin scum?

so muffins town?

what?

i don't know if he's town or scum. if i had to say, i guess i'm townleaning him, but i don't think my specific read on him actually matters for anything that i've been saying?

[northsidegal]

yay ate

i really want it to be more of a "wake up call" - people

should

be putting in the work, because - like i said - golden opportunity.

[northsidegal]

yes but

that's invalid

because if my teams wrong then you're probably xcum with the addendum being if muffin is... and even you srent pushing that.

is this better bussing wisdom?

i have no idea what you're saying.

My logic:
I consider wisdom to be town.
It seems likely to me that mechanically there's a maximum of one scum in you/muffinman
I know that i'm town.

Taking all of those into consideration, there is a

minimum

of 2 scum in group 3, and a chance (even if slim) that lynching there wins the game outright.

[northsidegal]

i mean, in some sense i still consider it unlikely that group 3 actually gets lynched for reasons i've already explained to muffinman

i'm not sure how you don't see any sort of urgency in my posts though. i'm not the type to really post with massive text and bold to tell people to stop lynching me, but the fact that i'm here at all fighting this as much as i am is objectively speaking something i have only ever done (and only ever do) as town. nobody seems to care when i say things like that, but it's true.

[northsidegal]

if it came down to a choice between group 1 and group 2 obviously i'd choose group 2 but i don't think it's a winning play and so that's why i'm not really advocating for it.

[northsidegal]

i mean, in some sense i still consider it unlikely that group 3 actually gets lynched for reasons i've already explained to muffinman

i'm not sure how you don't see any sort of urgency in my posts though. i'm not the type to really post with massive text and bold to tell people to stop lynching me, but the fact that i'm here at all fighting this as much as i am is objectively speaking something i have only ever done (and only ever do) as town. nobody seems to care when i say things like that, but it's true.

ate and brushing off wisdom is a thing

i don't understand what you're saying.

[northsidegal]

Good effort nsg. Too many things stacked against you. Though you are also lucky the lynch didn't happen faster by eddie putting koki with you. Whether that's because he's scum or not we'll find out eventually.

hilarious

[northsidegal]

bujaber, why don't you seem to care about what i'm saying about my ability to be sorted?

[northsidegal]

nsg, if wisdom and buj are town you'll at the very least need to convince 1 to vote group 3 or town loses, even forgetting getting the other town in 3 to self. do you realize that?

yes, i realize that - that's what i've been trying to do this entire time.

[northsidegal]

i already knew that this was basically over when i realized that wisdom decided to put his blindfold on and lose the game for us, making it basically impossible that a group 3 with 2 scum in it would get lynched.

[northsidegal]

NSG - You didn't show support for group 2 earlier. I counted the votes I didn't have enough to lynch.
(Fitz no wisdom no, eddie no, muffin no that's already 4 people who wouldn't vote for g2 plus if they are scum koki wouldn't vote for them either)

So I had no choice. Also I still scumread eddie and can't fully trust muffin.

Pause for a moment. I am telling you that, if you can come to believe that i'm town (

really not a hard task

), you should be able to see my logic that group 3 makes more sense as the lynch.

You don't have to factor in the WIFOM of how you think scum

would

have distributed the groups.
You don't have to have a specific read on eddie or muffinman.

All that it requires is taking it that eddie and muffinman aren't scum together from them not hammering and townreading wisdom.

If you could come to the same perspective as me on that i really believe that it instantly takes this game from what's at this point an almost assured town loss to a really good chance of winning.

[northsidegal]

And as long as eddie is a scumread I will never vote for g3.

My decision is obvious donct put this on me nsg.

Your decision isn't "obvious" - what i'm saying requires no large leaps of logic, no delving into WIFOM, and is completely independent of any individual read on eddie or muffin.

If you're not willing to at least hear me out and put in the minimal time and effort required to actually sort me (again, not a hard task), it's entirely on you. I'm not sure what else you expect me to say.

[northsidegal]

you can make a post that is entirely factually correct that's still scummy.

[northsidegal]

I'm not entirely convinced muffin and eddie could have hammered.. muffin disappeared around the same time. It is possible he missed any chance of coordinating with eddie.

But regardless the real issue is you. And I'm not going to suddenly start townreading you just because you have a particular meta you are trying to preserve or make me believe. And I think your flip flopping on reads isn't natural. You only recently began claiming you are leaning town for me. Which would mean earlier in the day when you expressed interest in lynching g3 you either thought fitz/rmoj are together or me/koki are together.

The fact that you've changed your reads only to land you to the same conclusion to lynch g3 seems rather suspicious also.

Pedit - nsg was never a townread. She's been the hardest person to sort for me.

What about my coming to townread you "isn't natural"? Not everyone plays like wizzy over here.

I don't have a "particular meta i'm trying to preserve". oh my god.

please. click on my wiki. click on

literally any of the scumgames

. check my ISO. check my postcount.

[northsidegal]

I have literally no idea where people seem to get the idea that i'm boonskiies or something, manipulating my meta every single game. It's not just this game, either.

[northsidegal]

Here's an idea: maybe the reason i'm telling you this isn't because i'm some mastermind with an insanse scumgame manipulating her meta, maybe...

maybe it's because i'm town and my lynch is about to probably lose town the game, so i want people to see that there's a pretty obvious difference between here and my scumgames.

[northsidegal]

Like, i

guess

i can understand an aversion to self-meta, but that should really be based on who's telling it to you. Boon giving you self-meta is worthless. I'm not boon.

[northsidegal]

i believe he was talking to me.

[northsidegal]

Okay then it's nsg/eddie/koki


@nsg you said you were wanting to lynch 3 for most of the day yes? Way before anything else.
From town!nsg perspective you wanting to lynch g3 means you think 2+scum in there. And you had me as a scumread. You weren't pushing for it nearly as much as you were pushing it for it now.

From what I can see the only relevant thing that changed for you is that I started voting for g1 and you are now townreading me.

Your sudden commitment to the g3 lynch comes at an opportunistic time for you. Plus the teams that you must have been thinking of before are either invalidated by your townread of me or you've changed your reads on fitz/rmoj without any posts from them.

I feel like I'm not explaining myself clearly but basically the change in justification for lynching g3 earlier in day 2 compared to now does not fit.

Pedit - eddie: I was saying all of that to nsg

You're ignoring what i'm saying. I'm not sure if it's willingly or not. If it isn't, i want to tell you again -

read what i am saying to you and please respond directly to it.

[northsidegal]

@nsg you said you were wanting to lynch 3 for most of the day yes? Way before anything else.
From town!nsg perspective you wanting to lynch g3 means you think 2+scum in there. And you had me as a scumread. You weren't pushing for it nearly as much as you were pushing it for it now.

From what I can see the only relevant thing that changed for you is that I started voting for g1 and you are now townreading me.

Your sudden commitment to the g3 lynch comes at an opportunistic time for you. Plus the teams that you must have been thinking of before are either invalidated by your townread of me or you've changed your reads on fitz/rmoj without any posts from them.

I feel like I'm not explaining myself clearly but basically the change in justification for lynching g3 earlier in day 2 compared to now does not fit.

What?

There hasn't been any change in justification? The justification has

literally always

been that i townread wisdom and think that there's a maximum of one scum in eddie/muffinman. like, you cna go back to the beginning of the day and see that. it's factually

indisputable

.

[northsidegal]

i don't think people get that i am not thinking in terms of teams

at all

outside of who i

don't

believe to be scum. it really doesn't matter all that much to me exactly

who

in G3 is scum - i just firmy believe that there are at least 2 of them there.

[northsidegal]

@bujaber

unless the team is exactly {eddie, kokichi, muffin} (which i doubt), i think i'm leaning towards group 3 today.

disagreeing with wisdom here - i haven't reread to fully solidify this yet, but i still townread kokichi and looking back i think people were too quick to townread bujaber.

i get the feeling that i'm going to lose this game

that being said, i still townread wisdom and i'm pretty sure that eddie/muffin aren't partnered, so i feel pretty safe in voting 3

[northsidegal]

@nsg - I did read it. If I townread you then g3 is the obvious lynch. However I haven't seen justification to townread you. As I'm trying to explain, your actions seem scummy to me.

I am telling you where the evidence is to townread me. You seem committed to completely ignoring it.

Pedit - maybe so but you'd be saying this too as scum. So like the way the game state is currently makes it so that you want to lynch g3 regardless of alignment from your pov. Because you can't push for eddie/muffin or wisdom as scum anymore. So as either alignment you only have g3 as an option that you'd publicly claim.

No, I wouldn't be saying this as scum, because

it wouldn't be true as scum.

If there exists a clear distinction between my game as town and as scum, then as scum I can't rely on that to clear me except as a bluff that I expect nobody to call me on. I'm not bluffing.

"But wait", i hear someone say. "People can manipulate their meta!"

No. Not in this way. All it would take is someone

actually reading

to see why that's not true. Again - I'm not boon.

[northsidegal]

Wisdom she's good... I actually am more convinced that she's scum after I started voting g1 than before but I feel bad about lynching her.

I am not good as scum.

People seem to have this idea but i literally have no idea where it comes from and i hate it more than anything.

Why do you utterly refuse to read and force me to keep bashing this against your skull?

Please literally read anything that i'm talking about.

[northsidegal]

wait, i just remembered that you were my scumbuddy in double elimination.

what are you even talking about then, bu? you of all people should know what i'm saying. i literally

did not post once

that game becaues i was scum.

[northsidegal]

you were also my buddy in open 716, which i flaked out of (the only game so far i've ever replaced out of).

what is your deal? you of all people should

know

what i'm talking about.

[northsidegal]

hey eddie, mind just waiting on that group 1 vote for me?

[northsidegal]

i still think we can win this. i don't want to give up.

[northsidegal]

eddie, it's plurality. even if wisdom is gamethrowing as hard as he can, it's still possible to get a group 3 lynch by finding the townie(s) in there and convincing them.

[northsidegal]

If no majority exists at deadline, whichever group has the most votes will be lynched. In case of a tie at deadline, whichever group has the oldest most-recent vote (that is, whichever group was the first to reach its current number of votes) will be lynched.

[northsidegal]

better than an almost certain loss.

[northsidegal]

even if you might not succeed, doesn't mean you shouldn't try in the first place.

[northsidegal]

i am obvtown, just check the activity overview.

a no-lynch isn't possible?

[northsidegal]

even if you might not succeed, doesn't mean you shouldn't try in the first place.

I have tried. it's not going to work. wisdom is known for being a nonsensical tunneler like twoface / robbnva, though hes better at mafia than them at least

wisdom's vote isn't necessary for a g3 lynch.

[northsidegal]

i think the fact that i care so much about winning this should be more convincing. i haven't lost a game as town in a while. to lose this one because of my own lynch would eat me up.

[northsidegal]

Like, i know it's not ideal, but given what we have to work with the plurality G3 lynch is just fmpov the only way we don't lose here.

[northsidegal]

you dont give the vibe of caring so much friend

i have no idea how you get this feeling.

what would you expect

from

me caring? i can't imagine much more outside of constant large text screaming.

[northsidegal]

like, i am doing everything i possibly can to try to win this right now.

[northsidegal]

well, that's not true. there are certain lines that i just don't ever really like to cross, so i guess i'm not going there. within my normal play i think i'm putting a lot of effort in.

[northsidegal]

nonsensical tunneler

yet somehow nobody can ever explain how I don't make sense

i don't even know what the reasons

for

you scumreading me are outside of "you're pushing bujaber and PoE".

[northsidegal]

maybe if you tried to talk to me more instead of spending days poking fun at me utterly convinced in yourself, you might have received an explanation already.

[northsidegal]

nonsensical tunneler

yet somehow nobody can ever explain how I don't make sense

i don't even know what the reasons

for

you scumreading me are outside of "you're pushing bujaber and PoE".

lmao
Its not like ive explained why every team without you is not a thing

your assumptions about what scum would and wouldn't do, especially when it comes to the partitions, are faulty.

you're doing the equivalent of what is really lazy NKA or VCA to conclude that multiple permutations of scumteams are impossible.

that's really all it comes down to - what you think scum would or have done does not match up to what scum actually have done. i'm not sure why it's so

incredibly

unrealistic to you that scum would have a different thought process than you when it comes to evaluating things like the partition. that's just theory of mind.

[northsidegal]

You cant tell me that muffin puts himself with eddie and kokichi for wifom when thats the group that will get lynched 95% of the time.
You cant tell me fitz and realmen risk the game on g3 not getting lynched given the gamestate.

you don't know what their thought processes would be like - perhaps fitz and realmen thought that the whole you/eddie thing would spill over to today, especially after everyone in day 1's group 3 flipping town. i'm not sure - my point is, the reasoning i've seem from you has all been from your own perspective, and so will diverge from what other people as scum actually would have done. your view of the "gamestate" isn't necessarily the same as what scum's might have been.

[northsidegal]

NSG, I think you're town so hopefully you've unvoted by the time I've caught up.

ironic.

Kokichi, you keep saying that voting group 3 is a scumclaim - in what way? explain it to me, please.

[northsidegal]

no, that's definitely not a thing.

[northsidegal]

NSG, I think you're town so hopefully you've unvoted by the time I've caught up.

ironic.

Kokichi, you keep saying that voting group 3 is a scumclaim - in what way? explain it to me, please.

hey kokichi i'm p-editing you with this please respond to it before you do the rest of your catchup

[northsidegal]

muffinman, you're being kind of concise. what are you thinking right now?

[northsidegal]

i guess you'll see my logic later on in the catch-up (or have you already passed it?)

i think eddie / muffin are mechanically confirmed to not be partners

given that and my wisdom townread, i can take it that there

are

at least 2 scum in group 3.

[northsidegal]

i'm aware that lynching wrong in group 3 loses the game. i am also very, very aware that lynching wrong in group 1 would lose the game.

i am fairly confident in wisdom being town. again, i fail to see what he's doing right now as scum, except either bluffing (very very unlikely) or deliberately anti-spewing his partners so that they can try to win tomorrow / later (still unlikely and doesn't make much sense for why scum would choose me to partner with him for him to do this)

[northsidegal]

Anyway, there is 3 votes on group 1. meaning scum on wagon (wisdom) or in group (wisdom) since maf haven't blitzed yet.

faulty assumption given that not everyone has checked in, and not everyone has been here at the same time

[northsidegal]

I've already explained he stopped us from lynching confirmed scum in group 2. I don't agree with your townread on him, as wisdom is just naturally like that. I think that's NAI

anti-town things don't necessarily come from scum. you need reasoning depeer than that.

what do you mean "wisdom is just naturally like that"? what i was describing as for my townread on him were

specific actions

in this game that he's taken. how can he "naturally be like that"?

[northsidegal]

Kokichi - just imagine it from my perspective from a moment, going off of what i've been saying: group 1 results in a town loss. group 3 basically needs to be the lynch (given group 2 seems unviable as a compromise and also potentially just has 2 town).

If you're town in group 3, we're going to need your vote to lynch there given what wisdom's doing here.

I just want to put that into perspective as for how / why i'm trying to convince people on this. I'm not sure

if

you're the town in group 3, but if you are we need to talk.

[northsidegal]

Like, if you're the town in group 3 then the steps that we need to take in order to have any chance of winning this is to
1. Solidify a read on me
2. Solidify your wisdom read
3. Agree that the lack of a quickhammer most probably means that there's maximum 1 scum in eddie/muffin

[northsidegal]

i'm aware that lynching wrong in group 3 loses the game. i am also very, very aware that lynching wrong in group 1 would lose the game.

i am fairly confident in wisdom being town. again, i fail to see what he's doing right now as scum, except either bluffing (very very unlikely) or deliberately anti-spewing his partners so that they can try to win tomorrow / later (still unlikely and doesn't make much sense for why scum would choose me to partner with him for him to do this)

the problem with the latter is that his plan literally ends in him flipping today so the spew is pretty frickin worthless...

(ergo wisdom's town)

exactly

(honestly thought i also mentioned that there because i remember thinking that but yeah)

[northsidegal]

i guess you'll see my logic later on in the catch-up (or have you already passed it?)

i think eddie / muffin are mechanically confirmed to not be partners

given that and my wisdom townread, i can take it that there

are

at least 2 scum in group 3.

from your pov, if wisdom is town, kokichi-me and kokichi-eddie are also out of the equation mechanically given the recent string of posts

gonna read on phone soon. brb

hadn't realized that

not sure how much of a difference it makes, though?

[northsidegal]

it means that if kokichi is scum then it would be the case that there are 3 scum partnered in group 3, no?

still

not sure if that's relevant or not

[northsidegal]

Anyways

@Anyone voting G1 (@BuJaber, @Fitz, yes, even @Wisdom), unvote. We're getting to the point where the game can seriously be solved. Don't throw it away by allowing a quickhammer. Even if you think I'm scum there's no

benefit

to rushing a lynch on G1, whereas there's a lot of potential downside if you're wrong.

[northsidegal]

Anyways

@Anyone voting G1 (@BuJaber, @Fitz, yes, even @Wisdom), unvote. We're getting to the point where the game can seriously be solved. Don't throw it away by allowing a quickhammer. Even if you think I'm scum there's no

benefit

to rushing a lynch on G1, whereas there's a lot of potential downside if you're wrong.

quoting for non-pagebottom

[northsidegal]

also quoting for next time kokichi shows up

Kokichi - just imagine it from my perspective from a moment, going off of what i've been saying: group 1 results in a town loss. group 3 basically needs to be the lynch (given group 2 seems unviable as a compromise and also potentially just has 2 town).

If you're town in group 3, we're going to need your vote to lynch there given what wisdom's doing here.

I just want to put that into perspective as for how / why i'm trying to convince people on this. I'm not sure

if

you're the town in group 3, but if you are we need to talk.

Like, if you're the town in group 3 then the steps that we need to take in order to have any chance of winning this is to
1. Solidify a read on me
2. Solidify your wisdom read
3. Agree that the lack of a quickhammer most probably means that there's maximum 1 scum in eddie/muffin

[northsidegal]

^basically exactly where i'm coming from except with my knowing i'm town

[northsidegal]

Honestly, I think voting group 1 is best since wisdom is highly likely scum and 50% conf scum anyway. The fact that NSG continues to push for a group 3 lynch is shady, but i think shes town still. but this is still the best vote.

VOTE: group 1

stop.

[northsidegal]

kokichi - if you're town, stop.

[northsidegal]

i'm pretty sure that now the only way both muffinman and eddie could be scum is if it were with wisdom?

[northsidegal]

You're not unvoting group 3 after I said it was a scumclaim from my opinion, so why should I listen to yours?

YOU NEVER EXPLAINED WHY IT WAS A SCUMCLAIM.

[northsidegal]

kokichi - i have been doing nohting but asking you to talk things over. if you are town, you are playing like utter trash making that vote right now.

[northsidegal]

mind unvoting while we talk about this?

because i've been over that it's mechanically confirmed that eddie / wisdom contains at most 1 scum and that i'm townreading wisdom.

[northsidegal]

the literal only probabilistic reasoning that it's based on is a townread on wisdom. that's it.

[northsidegal]

huh

[northsidegal]

then.. why are you still voting g3 now and not even unvoted or voted g2??

1) Unvote while we're discussing this if you care at all about town winning this. I can't consider you keeping your vote where it is as anything other than a scumclaim.
2) Why would i unvote a group that i know contains

at least

two scum to vote a group that contains

at most

1 scum and might not contain scum at all?

[northsidegal]

this has never been about my mislynch record. i'm not so superficially egotistical. that was a throwaway thought that i mentioned.

[northsidegal]

if you want to accuse me of playing poorly, explain your wisdom read. "he messed up the guilty plan" really doesn't do much for me, especially in comparison to how he's played today.

[northsidegal]

oh look, two scum in group 3

[northsidegal]

sigh

[northsidegal]

i tried so hard this game.

[northsidegal]

I don't look up games I wasn't a part of for meta research.

This is fundamentally a bad approach.

[northsidegal]

meh.

good game.

sorry for being bitter.

[northsidegal]

i'm not angry at anyone. people are wrong, it happens. i've been wrong before. i'll be wrong again soon.

there's just something that absolutely kills me inside having to mark this one down as a loss.

[northsidegal]

putting him in g1 splits it into 1/1/1

perhaps better for getting

any

scum lynch, but lynching two scum seems better than lynching one along with obvious town, to me.