Partition Mafia Scum Topic

[zMuffinMan]

busy atm

my first ideas for scum in this setup were a 643 or 733 split with all scum in the 4 or one of the 3s but it heavily depends on how likely it is you think you can avoid a lynch plus how much risk you want to take

[zMuffinMan]

on second thought that's not so good an idea though because town probably has at least a way to determine how many scum are in a given group and that could backfire massively

anyway will think about this later. bbl

[zMuffinMan]

safest option might just be to do a 1-1-1 split because if town does have some sort of sensor role and uses it D1 we'd be kind of fucked if we gamble (otoh, it could work brilliantly if town is without a sensor role but i'm not sure it's worth the risk)

i thought my role was pretty cool

then i actually read what my role is and saw how it resets the votecount and now i think it's not so cool

the lesson learnt here, of course, is that reading is uncool

oh well

i'm currently considering strongly hinting at having a neutral-but-kinda-positive-but-potentially-negative-so-i-dunno-what-it-actually-is role D1. i think i'd probably do that if i were town with this role. depends on whether i feel like i wanna pretend i'm vanilla or not i suppose

[zMuffinMan]

my role is pasted in here (check the spoiler in OP)

sensor role is just a guess - town has some power (probably) and it's related to the mechanic (probably) so sensor (or some variation of it) makes sense (you might even say it's a sensible guess) (i'm sensing i'm running out of puns now)

[zMuffinMan]

just try to throw out guesses for roles that make sense (this one wasn't intentional but i'm making no effort to alter my

corny[/size] hilarious punning)

sensor
a town mirror of my role
someone who can decide what group they're in regardless of what scum picks
some sort of governing role or something i guess is possible (or at least saving someone in a particular group)
double-voter

maybe i'll think of some more later if i can be bothered

[zMuffinMan]

CAN'T EVEN GET MY BBCODE TAGS RIGHT

PS: sorry if my sensational sense of humour offends your sensibilities btw

[zMuffinMan]

purple is a really ugly colour for private topics btw

why haven't they fixed that yet or how do i change it?

green wasn't much better but damn, black-text-on-purple is bad and the whole colour scheme makes me wish i were born without eyes

after some testing, i've decided this will be my new colour, unless someone has a better suggestion

seems fine in preview at least

[zMuffinMan]

maybe i'll just stick with black actually... that doesn't look as good as i previously thought it would

[zMuffinMan]

i guess for now i'll just write out a preliminary idea for partitioning and if anyone has any better suggestions than we go with that instead...

1:
dram
DV
pine
kokichi

2:
wisdom
sircakez
...

i literally no know one else in this player list so split the rest randomly, but 3+hf in group 2 and 4+me in group 3, i guess

if you're wondering why i get the bigger group, it's because

i need to compensate for something

i'm clearly the boss of this small mafioso unit... though i would prefer a less perverted-sounding role...

@implosion: would you mind changing my role name to something cooler like "1-shot destroyer of hopes and dreams"?

i feel this adequately describes what my role does while giving it a bit more oomph

[zMuffinMan]

there's no reason the two of you can't also petition to change your role names too, i guess

i feel goon is a bit too... vanilla

it's so 2017

let's go with something like the following?

1:
dram
DV
kokichi
realmen

2:
wisdom
sircakez
havingfitz
pine

3:
riku
bujaber
eddie
northside
muffin

(pending changes... potentially multiple times...)

any better ideas are welcome, though!

i'm not sold on a 1-1-1 split but it's just the safest bet until we have a better picture of what town power looks like (of course, we could always mix up the groups a bit - e.g. put me in a group of 4 with players who are easily lynched (someone is gonna need to help me out on who this would be in this player list, i'm oblivious to who most of these guys are!) and at some point D1 i switch groups and have my group get lynched or something? there's even potential gambits where i switch with one of you)

[zMuffinMan]

What was your thought process on the groupings you suggested?

i was using an incredibly complex system...

"put the few people i know with a bunch of people i don't know"

[zMuffinMan]

i realistically don't have any preferences for groups

just put DV in with a bunch of lynchbait

it would feel pretty good to be able to mislynch him D1

and then hold it over him at an ausmeet

[zMuffinMan]

... of course, if he manages to get my group lynched D1 then uh... hopefully he doesn't read the scum PT

[zMuffinMan]

optimally, i think the path to victory is something like the following (left hand side is total numbers, right-hand side is groups)

10:3 - 5:4:

4

(1-1-1 split means 1 scum dead)
7:2 - 3:3:

3

(1-1-0 split means we preferably lynch an all-town group but worst case scenario is another scum dead)
either 4:2 or 5:1 - 2:2:2 (either 1-0-0 or 1-1-0 split, if 2 scum alive here we'd win on a mislynch of the town group)
if we haven't won after D3, then we use the NK here and go into the final day 2:1 with 1:1:1 split of groups (obviously 1-0-0 split)

the other option is gambling on weird splits throwing off the town - but i think that could be considered after D1

there's also the possibility that my switch can be utilised to prevent a scum lynch on a given day or potentially as a way of gaining some town credit (i.e. i swap one of you, we lynch your group, i potentially look better... BUT this backfires if people see the obvious so i might just not use my role - sorry mod!)

[zMuffinMan]

i can't really see a way that using my role actually

helps

scum

at best, it could serve as a distraction

so the only way i can really think to utilise it for any semblance of town credit is to claim it (or hint at it strongly) early on, eventually use it, prove what it does and then point out "AHA! NO SANE MOD WOULD GIVE THIS SHIT A ROLE TO A SCUM PLAYER!" and everyone will nod sagely at how true that statement is

[zMuffinMan]

i suppose at 3:3:3 there are potential ways to use it (but i would look bad on the following day because of it)

for example, put myself in a group with 2 lynchbait players, go "yeah, fuck this shit, scum obviously want me dead today", switch for another generally agreed scum player (or gambit here and switch with one of you) and then lynch that group

but eh, i'll think about it when it gets to that point

for now, i'm almost certainly not going to use it D1

[zMuffinMan]

i mean, if we're playing it safe, a 1-1-1 split makes most sense (even if we do lose a member, the numbers make it not all that bad, and i think it's almost impossible to win this game with a flawless victory realistically so i don't feel so bad about dropping a player D1, as cruel as that may sound)

i feel like my role isn't particularly vital to the setup either so it doesn't even matter if i happen to be the one to fall

that said, if it ensured my real goal this game, i'd even be willing to be in a group with DV and self-vote, just to see him lynched D1

though it will be less satisfying, it is a sacrifice i'm willing to make when considering the grand scheme of things

[zMuffinMan]

essentially if the game doesn't end with DV being lynched D1, i'll consider my ultimate win condition forfeited and feel very sad about this game

[zMuffinMan]

i suppose it depends on whether you think the mod would include a sensor-like role in the game

it's possibly too overpowered a role to put in a game like this but i think town has some sort of power so it's a matter of tossing up whether it's sensible to put all our eggs in one basket or not

i'm tempted to say yolo and let you two decide if you want to play a riskier game or not - i am just giving you food for thought

[zMuffinMan]

like if town has any sort of role that lets them detect a specific number of scum in a given group, then... we're fucked

actually i suppose the more likely role (if the game is balanced) is town being able to detected whether ANY scum exists in a given group, but... that could also backfire if we're unlucky, so... possibly not the greatest idea

*shrug*

[zMuffinMan]

uh... it occurs to me that i can't find anywhere in the rules what happens if we don't pick groups

i guess in that case the mod loses and we all go home

[zMuffinMan]

sorry havingfitz but it looks like you need to die to take out DV

i shall think fondly of you when i remember your noble sacrifice

[zMuffinMan]

i am not insistent on having scum die D1, i am just saying that it is the safest option by far - it's low-risk-neutral-reward

the setup would look pretty grim if the group with 2 scum dies, not even taking into account town PR possibilities

if they truly do have a sensor and can use it D1, we put ourselves at even higher risk

i'm not so sure why you dislike the idea of one scum dying d1; it overall makes the game slightly harder, sure, but it also practically ensures against being put at a severe disadvantage after disastrous D1

[zMuffinMan]

i guess if we do a 2-1-0, the ideal outcome is having all of us alive after it... but... there are so many ways this can go wrong

let's ignore town PRs and just assume it's all vanilla

we'd have to somehow make it seem like we really want to consider lynching one of the scum groups while _actually_ wanting the all-town group lynched

this is all fine and dandy if town ALSO wants the all-town group lynched (please note that unless people are voting their own group, this will be hard) but if they don't...

then we have to pull it off without creating the obvious association - that we strongly wanted that

the further into the game it goes, the more of a problem this becomes

because people are going to look back at D1 and say "hey look at these people who really wanted that town group lynched" or "look at these people who never seemed to want to really lynch the scum groups!" and so on and so forth

whereas a 1-1-1 split means D1 is a wash. if there's scum in every group, scum doesn't care which group dies (especially since the sole scum PR isn't THAT powerful that it matters if he dies). all you need is for the other two scum to look reasonably town via play

i dunno

like i said earlier, i'm fine with a risky play if you really want to do it

but you should be fully aware of and fully think through the risks associated with it before you worry about standard stuff like "scum dying d1 isn't good" - this isn't a standard setup so standard logic does not apply

[zMuffinMan]

if i were playing a risk-averse game, id go with a 1-1-1 split. that said, i dont mind throwing caution to the wind of you two want to do it

we have approximately 3 hours to finalise the split though so make a decision quick!

[zMuffinMan]

if one of you two posts in the next hour, pick a split and we'll stick with that

i don't mind whatever it is

if it works, it works

if it doesn't, it doesn't

all i know is the gods demand the blood of DV

[zMuffinMan]

im guessing realmen is an alt of someone i know

i cant be bothered doing any sort of investigation into who it is

[zMuffinMan]

it's 11am and i've been drinking for 2 hours

don't make me responsible for repartitioning

it can only lead to bad things

[zMuffinMan]

well i haven't really been drinking but i need people to think i wasn't of sound mind when i do something stupid so let's just pretend i won't be making a bad decision sober

[zMuffinMan]

that sounds like a threat to me

[zMuffinMan]

tempting option:

changing it to 7:3:3 and giving ourselves a group of our own

either worst plan ever or BEST plan ever!

[zMuffinMan]

actually, the more i think about it, the more it sounds like the worst plan ever. how would we ever get a majority unless most of that group self-votes

[zMuffinMan]

if you want to repartition, go for it

game starts in 28 mins

pick a split you're comfortable with

honestly, i really don't care

[zMuffinMan]

oh well, too late now

glhf

(not "good luck, have fun" but "good luck, havingfitz" because i'm coming after DV)

[zMuffinMan]

kind of depends on which group dies today though!

and also other shenanigans that might occur (e.g. if there's a town mirror of my role)

[zMuffinMan]

i guess eddie might be the sensor role i feared

or he's just pulling some silly gambit

gonna shut it down now and figure out which is which

[zMuffinMan]

goddammit, if my group got sensored, then how the fuck am i gonna lynch DV?

this sucks

now he's gonna read the mafia PT and make fun of me

[zMuffinMan]

tbh, if he's really a sensor, i blame both of you for not re-partitioning the groups and putting me in group 1 or 2

that said, if he's a sensor, then re-partitioning would have have fucked us over completely lol

i suppose ultimately i just wish DV was in group 3. i've gotta figure out a way of making that happen without getting lynched for snatching him...

hmm, this is tough

[zMuffinMan]

i wonder if i can pull off a "let's have the best of both worlds! snatch: DV, vote: 3!"

[zMuffinMan]

goddammit, im betting like half the people i dont know are alts

eddie cane must be one, realmen i think must be one, not sure who else

[zMuffinMan]

so uh...

it seems you put yourself in a very suicidal group

[zMuffinMan]

it's 1am and some piece of shit is singing really loudly really badly next door so i got woken up

just want to say, think about what you're doing from the perspective you're town...

would you want your group lynched if you were town? if so, why? whatever the answer to this, you should be justifying or rethinking your vote based on it, if that makes sense

your current hop on is a little odd IMO

now to try to get back to sleep while the cunt next door has shut up for a couple mins

[zMuffinMan]

sydney, aus (not so coincidentally the same place DV lives) (gasps of shock arise from the crowd at this revelation)

[zMuffinMan]

contemplating posting a rather lengthy post that may change the dynamic of the game greatly (as far as what's happening with group 2) which isn't necessarily a good thing (possibly isn't so bad a thing either)

this is leading towards the possibility of using my ability D1 on a town player in group 1 then lynching group 3

i guess i'll have to gauge how people react to this though (they may just overlook it and disagree with it)

[zMuffinMan]

oh well

roll with the punches and see where this goes, i suppose!

[zMuffinMan]

either this is gonna turn out really, really bad or really, really good or really, really average or somewhere in between

(i'm so wise)

[zMuffinMan]

ive met him a few times yeah

weve done a few ausmeets

[zMuffinMan]

oh, i like it when town largely ignore posts i make that i think are going to change things up more than they ever do

realistically speaking, i don't understand how anyone can think a suicidal group is more likely to contain 2 scum

i think i'd be fighting hard against this were i town

incidentally, i think 1-1-1 split is a safe choice regardless of what groupings we did D1 because it's so unpredictable how people will vote (see: today)

[zMuffinMan]

i wouldn't go too hard on that angle if i were you

it's a good idea theoretically, but if you're too ham-fisted about it, it might make people wary

[zMuffinMan]

that said, they might just lynch you for it anyway but still... i just have a bad feeling it might end up not happening BUT you'll still look scummy for it and die tomorrow for instance when the groups are smaller

[zMuffinMan]

to be perfectly honest, riku is the kind of guy i'd hate to play in a game with if i were town

i think on the one hand, i might read his play as town

but on the other hand, it's so unhelpful

hes like gaiden v2

[zMuffinMan]

who knows? could be any group, but maybe 2? depends on where DV and NSG vote

the REAL MAN is too volatile to predict

the rest of the votes are currently pretty static

i'd say 2 most likely will be lynched

1 and 3 depends greatly on what happens with 2 and whether the votes there disperse onto other wagons soooooooooooo up in the air now

[zMuffinMan]

gaiden is the kind of player who makes his alignment rather obvious to anyone reading between the lines but can be rather dreadful to put up with if you're not familiar with him and also he's just plain antitown sometimes even when he's town

riku isn't _as_ bad when it comes to antitown behaviour and i think he's fairly readable (and his reads aren't awful actually) but i don't really understand what he's doing here

[zMuffinMan]

gun to my crotch, maybe

[zMuffinMan]

i suppose it's easier to read people when i don't have to read people

whodathunk

but

i do think his play is the kind of play i would associate as town if i were town so... yeah

[zMuffinMan]

e.g. that reads list with a "let's see what i'm right about" is bleeding town for anyone who wants to see it

i think

but hey, game is much easier when i already have it solved i suppose?

[zMuffinMan]

btw if we lynch group 2 today

3:3:2 groups

i don't care how you partition the two groups of 3 but the 2 shall be ME AND DV! that is my only demand!

[zMuffinMan]

if only because the reactions to it will be priceless

[zMuffinMan]

goddammit everyone voting my group (except pine who seems really hung up on the DV thing which i'd do as town anyway so lol) is calling everyone else in my group scum

STOP BEING SCUM, PEOPLE IN MY GROUP

[zMuffinMan]

i don't mean to belittle your ability to read me though hf, your read is pretty on point though i think you're also a case of being right for the wrong reasons

[zMuffinMan]

tired-posting and not giving a shit about what you actually write is liberating

hopefully i didnt write anything that incriminates me (though that hf guy is pretty fucking sharp)

[zMuffinMan]

kokichi!

please note i think it's confirmed there are no night actions in this game (which i believe includes n0) so if youre planning to go the "i got a n0 guilty" route beware!

unless you're just going the "im trolling lol" route in which case good luck!

[zMuffinMan]

it would HAVE to be a day action is what i'm saying so... yeah

[zMuffinMan]

This game is pseudo-nightless. The mafia have a 1-shot nightkill that they may use any night after night 0. They may not use their kill if it would cause the mafia to have as many players alive as there are town players alive. There are no other killing abilities in the game.

There are no other night actions in the game.

note the bolded: if you want to go the "im super srs" route, it would have to be a 1-shot day action or something AND i think people would be suspicious of a day cop in this game but maybe that's just me - i'd be naturally wary of that but uh maybe others wont be!

[zMuffinMan]

D1 own-group-sensor would be a pretty cool role in this setup actually now that im thinking about possible fake-claims

[zMuffinMan]

but that would be so overpowered i think

a sensor role in general is just overpowered

i dunno why i ever considered that no sane mod would include it

[zMuffinMan]

the question is: is implosion sane?

[zMuffinMan]

uh... i think you've dug yourself in pretty deep atm and i don't know if you would normally do something like this and it's par for the course or not...

but

if you want to act like it's serious you should come up with something believable

ALSO

if you want to claim something like a modified sensor i'd probably go with day-1-only group sensor (you need to select a group, you get told IF there's scum in that group but not who specifically) and that you used this some time BETWEEN when you first posted in thread and when you first voted i think

but actually i think this is overpowered maybe (because that just breaks the setup in some splits possibly?)

not sure

[zMuffinMan]

if you were town and you seriously had a result, would you hard-claim it? just think as though you're actually town with whatever role you're pretending to have...

[zMuffinMan]

also you run the serious risk of a counter-claim i guess! which kind of defeats the point of your whole gambit!

but uh...

you've kinda dug that grave already so...

whoops if that happens?

[zMuffinMan]

honestly not sure how i'd do it if i were in your shoes:

you need a believable claim
that won't be counter-claimed
and explains why you've played how you've played

[zMuffinMan]

and you also need to weave the story that explains why you didn't vote until post #84 (but this is easily explained if you were waiting on a result from implosion)

[zMuffinMan]

oh lol you already claimed 1-shot scum detector so go with that i guess? don't use the word sensor

[zMuffinMan]

so somewhere between your initial posts and #84 where you voted, you used your role i guess

GLHF with your lying

unfortunately im like 5 pages behind right now and at work (and i shouldnt even be posting this!) so i cant join in the fun

[zMuffinMan]

i think after all the spamming i've done here the only piece of advice i can really offer is: you do you

[zMuffinMan]

group 3 has scum because Muffin either rolled scum, therefore it has scum, or he rolled town and scum either did a 1 / 1 / 1 split or they put a couple with Muffin because nobody wants to lynch a legend on the first game back. the latter works depending on who in this game would ahve known muffin even by name aside myself, so if muffin could do a list that'd be swell and if people want to self-identify that's townpoints. fits with it being the old tryhard group. my first choice is not swapping because its possible ROJ is one of the scum there and switching is a liability. obviously, this is wifom city but i don't see a better place to push and this is by far the best grouping. i think wisdom's role probably makes him town, unfortunately.

this sucks and i honestly didnt know most of the players (and even some i know i dont know well enough that theyd do this) so i could see a whole bunch of scum teams in this setup not knowing me or not caring about me enough that this matters

so hes right but not for good reason!!

[zMuffinMan]

i believe that. sorry for accusing you

[zMuffinMan]

ok, i'm guessing there is no investigative role in this game (maybe, depends what eddie is hinting) and that i was overly paranoid n0

[zMuffinMan]

switching koki for someone and lynching g2 also works for us lol

just gotta keep the bullshit factory churning out the goods!

[zMuffinMan]

i can't really call NSG's reads good per se

but if you ignore the kokichi read, her POE is pretty strong

and she's playing a pretty strong games in terms of how town she looks

[zMuffinMan]

i think it's incredibly rare that wisdom ever agrees with me in a game about anything

so

i'm hoping he completely ignores everything i'm saying and swaps koki out then we lynch group 2!

[zMuffinMan]

i await pine's endgame comment: "AT LEAST I WAS RIGHT ABOUT MUFFIN!"

[zMuffinMan]

ok. well. tonight has been fun

gl catching up!

[zMuffinMan]

actually, i suppose i should have been detailing my thought processes in here as i caught up but eh

essentially i've been trying to egg wisdom into doing his 'selfish' swap so i can swap him after it. if it 'confirms' me a scum, i'm fine with that anyway because if we lynched, say, group 3 then it's an all town lynch and i can get rid of certain players tomorrow with my own lynch anyway

the only problem, of course, is that it relies on you two carrying the game and havingfitz isn't in the best position atm

kokichi might pull through!

[zMuffinMan]

of course, this all BACKFIRES if town lynches group 2 after the swaps occur

[zMuffinMan]

i think that's a risk i'm willing to take though

[zMuffinMan]

let's see...

wisdom swaps pine or something for dram?

then i swap wisdom

wisdom goes into a rage

i lol

hopefully after that we lynch group 3?

[zMuffinMan]

then riku is eventually a mislynch waiting to happen...

but i'll die tomorrow probably

then fitz will prob die the next day

hm

[zMuffinMan]

it's somewhat liberating not giving a shit how bad i look because i can't really be lynched in this scenario barring exceptional circumstances

i guess eddie might also have a swap role and that could throw a wrench in the works

lol

[zMuffinMan]

DV's reads are surprisingly good!

[zMuffinMan]

his plan is the only one so far that actually nets a scum death (and two of them to boot!)

it's a pity wisdom is so stubborn, rofl

i even suggested it to him but he doesn't want it!

[zMuffinMan]

you know

wisdom is scum-reading hf right?

if he were thinking straight, he'd swap someone out of group 1 into group 2

then... i can't do anything with my role...

i'm not going to suggest this because it's suboptimal for us

but it's the ideal play for town here (even though it relies on kokichi's guilty being accurate)

[zMuffinMan]

(which i guess it kind of is?)

[zMuffinMan]

like i'm honestly surprised he hasn't realised this himself

because it just makes sense to do

if he's worried about me screwing things over, he could just do that...

but he's not going to... so uh...

ok?

[zMuffinMan]

there's a decent amount of irony in the fact that i'm pretending to be upset that people aren't listening to me about the possibility that kokichi and wisdom aren't both obvtown

it's hilarious, when i think about it

[zMuffinMan]

i just don't understand why wisdom is so fixated on group 3

like...

he thinks HF is scum... right?

and he knows there's scum in group 2... right?

and he thinks i'm scum... right?

so uh... why does he want to swap and lynch group 3? why not group 1 with someone who CANT swap out?

this just makes no sense the more i think about it

hopefully he explains this in the dead thread or post-game

[zMuffinMan]

i think the best opportunity town has here is listening to DV

it's a pity he's likeable but not so influential. he needs to be more pushy! but that's not his style so whatever

[zMuffinMan]

eddie's got a reasonable idea, he's just wrong about the scum read he wants to swap into group 2 (he thinks buj<->cakez is a good idea). it's not a bad idea per se, it's better than wisdom's (says i with full knowledge of the setup and no requirement to work anything out), it's just not optimal

[zMuffinMan]

dram is still 100% right on what the best play today is btw

like, everything i'm saying in thread about it, i'd probably be saying as town, too

i might do it a bit differently maybe (i'd prob just remain neutral and explain facts instead of acting upset or ragey) but i would still be arguing the exact same thing

i don't know how to feel about what's going on

like should i feel vindication that i'm right or something?

lol

[zMuffinMan]

anyway

i'm tossing up the options here

if wisdom swaps dram and pine

then...

1) i can swap wisdom and myself and lol at what happens as a result
2) i can swap riku and myself and lol at what happens as a result - this is potentially bad though when they both flip town and something that i need to carefully think through
3) i can swap hf and myself and lol at the bussing - but this only serves a purpose if i look town off it so i need to figure out who's reading the game in what way beforehand

[zMuffinMan]

man

SNATCH

is a really scummy ability name, thanks implosion

[zMuffinMan]

well at least i get to type "switch with" i suppose...

[zMuffinMan]

oh, cakez finally suggested the ACTUAL second best plan

[zMuffinMan]

oh right cakez thinks there's a decent chance of scum in group 1, that's why

hopefully pine chimes in right about now and goes "LYNCH CAKEZ"

[zMuffinMan]

I think you need to work with wisdom. Also bussing fitz wouldn't be bad if hes ok with it.

Best scenario you talk to Wisdom and say you agree to not use your swap yet if he swaps you out for riku and say you're compromising for town sake and not selfishness. He might buy that

wisdom already suggested that but he prob wont do it

[zMuffinMan]

that goes against everything i've been saying about optimal play (and that's totally not something i'd suggest as town!)

but

i'll see if i can work something like that into the conversation. maybe

or you can just suggest it

[zMuffinMan]

to be fair, youve been posting in this PT a bit and id argue that's more likely to come from scum than town

[zMuffinMan]

OH

I see why wisdom avoided g1... to save more town players... I guess it makes sense when you consider his goal of saving 3 town in g2...

still it obviously relies on him being right

[zMuffinMan]

so eddie is a group-mover (one person from a group gets moved directly to another)

i'm a switcher

wisdom is a swapper

[zMuffinMan]

well, at least that's what i gather from the post kokichi quoted

[zMuffinMan]

probably banter and drown the thread in posts until people forget im scum

[zMuffinMan]

btw, i don't actually think there are 4 manipulation roles in the game; only 3

i'm just adding the mysterious 'self-mover' into the mix so mine looks less like the OBVIOUS SCUM ONE THANKS IMPLOSION

[zMuffinMan]

you know, ive always pictured wisdom as this super-serious guy who plays mafia with a deadpan expression and says things to himself like "'fun'? what is this 'fun' that these humand sprak of?" before googling and researching the concept for hours on end, being even more confused about what it means than before he started

[zMuffinMan]

humans* speak*

goddamn autocorrect, youre supposed to stop me from looking stupid

[zMuffinMan]

inb4 "not even autcorrect is that capable, muffin"

[zMuffinMan]

hey it's pretty rude to interrupt my admittedly rather slow spam session

i cant help talking slowly though

i have the finger-eye coordination of something i cant really think of right now but insert humorous analogy

[zMuffinMan]

or metaphor? whatever the word is

[zMuffinMan]

on thinking about it, i decided that i just

intentionally

(didn't just think of it, it was pre-planned) left an opening for someone to say "i think it might be simile" to which i would come back with the brilliant pun "yes, i know those words are simile but i was asking which is correct!"

and then everyone would burst out in laughter at the sheer genius of it

[zMuffinMan]

i didn't want that magnificent and not-awful-at-all pun to go to waste so i felt i had to interject that before it got lost (you know, just in case one of you didn't say the simile thing)

[zMuffinMan]

i'm a work now so...

i can read the mafia game while i pretend to work

brb

[zMuffinMan]

i hope we lynch group 2 anyway today!

[zMuffinMan]

you know, outside of DV and dram, i think i've been playing the most pro-town game here (as in, in terms of suggesting what town should and shouldn't do)

i'm basically an honorary member of the town, so i think i should get two win cons

[zMuffinMan]

you know, i considered not saying anything yesterday and letting wisdom do what he wants with his plan (because i knew going against it would probably get him to scum read me)

but i also knew that he would be scum-reading me because he's wrong about his assumptions in g2, so i just bit the bullet and did it anyway

when given the choice, i'd prefer to play like i would as town over doing i'd never do as town to avoid being scumread by someone

[zMuffinMan]

from a theory perspective, this setup is really interesting (made more interesting by kokichi's fake-claim). perhaps sensor is a bit too overpowered in a setup like this, but it would be interesting to see this run again with slight variations in roles or whatever

that's the mindset of newbies who come from epicmafia or whatever crapsite
it shouldnt be yours
we have reads, we have actions we can use to make use of them

this game is another in a very long list of games where people disregard optimal play (which dram is right about) in favour of believing reads trump everything

the thing here is that while reads are important in making decisions in a game (and i value reads a lot), when there's an obvious mechanical choice on the table (and there are no scenarios where it can go wrong), you do that over making assumptions that MAY be completely wrong

i can see the point in thinking "well, if i'm right about my reads, then this is the better play!" but the flip-side is that if you're wrong then you screw town over badly

for example, let's say i swap pine or something today... you're staring at an all town lynch if town lynches group 3 and then town has to figure out whether koki is lying, whether wisdom was scum manipulating things or whether buj is just scum who everyone is misreading

but if you do the correct mechanical play here (no swaps, lynch the group with confirmed scum), yes you may lynch 4 town players, but you also GUARANTEE at least one scum being lynched (only one in this case) and the game can move on because town knows exactly what happened and can look back at who said what about it and why it makes sense. nobody is in the dark. everything is clear as day

i know this game will probably be forgotten about by certain players who are still headstrong about things like this, but dram is correct here; the epicmafia play is what wisdom is doing

[zMuffinMan]

i honestly think if i were town in this game i would have been thinking about the setup in much the same way as i've been pretending to, though i would have been more vocal about some things and less vocal about others

it's unfortunate that certain players are incredibly wrapped up in their egos

i feel a bit sad for the people going off at dram for being shit at the game and not being as good as them because they have good reads and whatnot

[zMuffinMan]

well, i say people... it's mostly the REAL MAN and a little bit of wisdom there so...

[zMuffinMan]

i feel like dram is going to explode at the REAL MAN post-game (or when they're both dead) after he sees what actually happened in this game

[zMuffinMan]

alternatively, we lynch group 2 with no regard for wisdom's swap... which i REALLY want to happen but it needs to mostly be pushed by the currently silent voices (like NSG, DV, even cakez) for it to happen and i'm not sure what their opinions are post-swap (i think DV might still think it optimal to lynch group 2?)

[zMuffinMan]

faking a guilty on scum doesn't make faking the guilty optimal play

another important lesson!

[zMuffinMan]

SCUM CONTROLS THE PACE OF THE GAME, SAVING 1 EXTRA POTENTIAL TOWN SLOT DOES

NOTHING

YOU RUINED OUR ONE GUARANTEE AT A SCUM LYNCH BECAUSE YOU THINK YOU'RE BETTER THAN EVERYONE

i feel bad for dram!

How are you leaning on your switch?

not sure!

either pine or you or no one depending on where public opinion sways!

if we're lynching group 2 anyway, i don't swap

if we're lynching group 3, i do! and then you've gotta decide whether you like the feeling of the rubber tires of the bus or whether we just kill pine and have an all-town-lynch day!

the latter might be optimal!

[zMuffinMan]

The problem with not swapping you into G3 is i look pretty bad if/when you do flip

maybe it'll be possible to play it off though?

I'll think about it when im not busy

[zMuffinMan]

Been reading like one post every 5-10 mins while doing other stuff today

Would not recommend catching up this way!

[zMuffinMan]

yeah wait til im off work ill try to talk dv into not hating me for switching pine

[zMuffinMan]

they can't really speedlynch me because my action resets the votecount

[zMuffinMan]

there's 3 votes out of 7 atm so im not too worried about it happening before i can action is what i mean

[zMuffinMan]

ill swap someone before i sleep tonight anyway

im just contemplating whether g2 can be lynched with no swap or with eddie moving you out

[zMuffinMan]

ok. nooooooooooooow i just need to figure out a decent reason to switch pine into G3

[zMuffinMan]

The funny part is that when we net 2-3 scum as a result of my plan dram muffin and co will just call me "lucky" and "you just flipped a coin for your reads" and stuff
Ive seen it a million times

sorry! i'll apologise in post-game for it!

[zMuffinMan]

ok now i dont need to figure out a decent reason to swap pine and myself

wisdom's already so dead-set on it rofl

only question is whether eddie is going to do anything about that

[zMuffinMan]

i really want to explain to bu why he's making faulty assumptions but i can't because of win cons!

[zMuffinMan]

what does your town game look like?

i dunno if it's your avatar or something but iirc you always look like scum to me!

[zMuffinMan]

oh i had forgotten cakez softed earlier! just after eddie did

[zMuffinMan]

nothing specific he just softed non-VT when the mountainous talk was going on

[zMuffinMan]

holy shit i was right...

the mysterious self-mover shows itself

[zMuffinMan]

Tell me that when lynching g3 doesnt net us at least 2 scum
Until then it was the right move

oops

[zMuffinMan]

i think a tale of untrustworthiness can be woven by just swapping pine today

[zMuffinMan]

it's fine i'm situating myself in a position to say "i'm not switching anyone outside of group 2 if we're lynching group 3"

either wisdom or pine (depends how much backlash i think ill get from a wisdom swap)

then lynch G3 (hopefully) and kill DV overnight or something

that will heavily incriminate you butttttttt

with the G2 confusion and stuff going on it's not so bad

[zMuffinMan]

i fell asleep when i said i was ISO-diving earlier!

so i had a nap basically and now i cant sleep

[zMuffinMan]

dont ask me which ISO i was diving, it was obviously too boring to remember if i nodded off

[zMuffinMan]

actually i was reading ISOs on my phone and i did the "just gonna rest my eyes a sec" thing

[zMuffinMan]

hes objectively the only kill that makes sense in the gamestate unfortunately

we can always save it and do the group anyway

i don't mind

[zMuffinMan]

i think i might just swap wisdom yeah

[zMuffinMan]

i think i can play it off as natural maybe?

let's see

[zMuffinMan]

this backfires REALLY badly if people vote group 2 regardless

[zMuffinMan]

like this really backfires if people lynch G2 anyway lollllllll

or eddie uses his role to swap someone out of g2 and then lynches it lollllllllll

ok lemme think

[zMuffinMan]

contemplating letting a few key people chime in before i make the switch

(though that risks three people voting quickly and hammering)

(as long as you two don't vote, that should be hard though)

[zMuffinMan]

actually riku is wildly unpredictable and my vote G3

so might cakez...

i should prob switch sooner rather than later

[zMuffinMan]

It's still L-3, don't worry

[zMuffinMan]

btw the reason i haven't made the switch yet is because i want to be reasonably certain where eddie/DV are going to vote if i do it

but theyre not checking in!

on the plus side, it's unlikely any more people will vote G3 before they check in so... there's a bit of leeway in terms of waiting

[zMuffinMan]

basically the absolute worst case scenario here is kokichi getting lynched today AFTER i swap

because the way i see this game playing out is either kokichi is going to be the last scum left alive (if we lynch G3 today) or i will (if we lynch G2 today)

and swapping with wisdom and G2 getting lynched is kind of game over!

not that i don't have faith in you havingfitz, it's just... uh... er... i uh... look, a distraction!

[zMuffinMan]

if you weren't being scumread by every player and their dog i'd have faith!

[zMuffinMan]

hmm

hard to make a case for swapping fitz now anyway with everything i've said

i've pretty much designed the last 24 hours of play around moving towards a group 2 switch

if i suddenly go "fuck it dont care about group 2 gonna swap fitz" i think itll kinda be an obvious bus maybe

seems pointless when the alternative (an all town lynch) is what the entire player list wants

[zMuffinMan]

and dont worry im paying attention to the game kinda (between doing other things)

i've got my switches copy pasted in notepad so i dont fumble if i need to do them quickly

[zMuffinMan]

(either pine or wisdom) (still deciding which is better)

[zMuffinMan]

Code: Select all

okidoke!

[b]Switch with Wisdom[/b]

i said stop voting until everyone had chimed in, now we do the switch i want instead

or simply

Code: Select all

[b]Switch with Pine[/b]

depending on who the next player to post is and what they say

[zMuffinMan]

i think pine might be better today anyway

i like the idea of keeping wisdom alive

[zMuffinMan]

and there's less risk of a G2 lynch happening after teh swap if i just do pine

[zMuffinMan]

depending on what happens between now and when i go home i might just do the switch anyway

[zMuffinMan]

might just roll with this in the next hour if nothing exciting happens between now and then

Code: Select all

*shrug*

as tempted as i am to just switch wisdom in the group and be done with it,

[b]Switch with Pine[/b]

[zMuffinMan]

nah ill just go with posting it without extra words on second thought

[zMuffinMan]

actually i probably dont need to delay this any longer

i'll just switch pine now

or i'll mull over this a bit longer hmm

[zMuffinMan]

PINE IT IS

NICE KNOWING YA, PINE

[zMuffinMan]

i keep refreshing hoping DV will post something before i do the switch

goddammit dv stop going afk for over 24 hours

[zMuffinMan]

you've betrayed me DV

you were meant to come into the thread and tell everyone they're disgusting wastes of oxygen (in typical DV fashion) and then tell them to sheep muffin

[zMuffinMan]

okidoke done waiting for DV to show up. gonna do the switch at 330 my time i guess

[zMuffinMan]

OOOOOOOOOOOOOOH

assuming eddie does not use his role today and we lynch G3

can we kill him do a 3-scum group split tomorrow?

e.g. G1 = us 3, G2 = wisdom DV NSG, G3 = buj REALMAN or something like that?

could EASILY backfire and destroy the hard-earned D1

or

could be amazing D2 win?

[zMuffinMan]

super-risky and probably suboptimal over a better split instead but eh

[zMuffinMan]

actually better to consider it later anyway

see what happens with the rest of the day

[zMuffinMan]

no matter what though all 3 of kok+buj+wis need to be separate groups yeah

[zMuffinMan]

the best thing that can happen for us today is eddie moving the REAL MAN to G3 before a lynch occurs...

[zMuffinMan]

or wisdom... doesnt matter

[zMuffinMan]

would have preferred we wait for eddie to potentially use his role (waste it) but whatever, too late now

are there spoilers in the dead thread? i'm picturing a scene where dram opens the dead thread, sees the spoilers, realises he was right and that the only player actually trying to help him help town was scum...

either he sheds a single tear as he mourns the loss of his faith in humanity before going to join a monastery in tibet

or he pulls out a hammer and demolishes his new keyboard, the one he got to replace all the ones he snapped in half this game, in a fit of rage

or i guess the more likely alternative: he makes a collage of posts by wisdom/realman in mockery of them

[zMuffinMan]

2-2-4 split is also possible if we kill someone

contemplating leaving eddie's role in for shits and giggles

[zMuffinMan]

or 2-5-1... or well, really anything tbh...

hmm

[zMuffinMan]

do not put wisdom and buj in the same group

i think youre really reading the undercurrents of the game incorrectly but ill talk about this later

[zMuffinMan]

here's my initial thoughts on split/kill:

wisdom + NSG
me + kokichi + eddie
buj + REALMAN + fitz

kill DV

reasoning is such:

i expect there to be some push-back against wisdom for the brilliant plan yesterday that led to an all-town lynch

he will try to suggest that i'm scum based on role or that if i'm not scum based on role it's because eddie is scum (WE HAPPEN TO BE IN THE SAME GROUP!!) and he'll also suggest it's possibly kokichi was scum lying anyway so he'll try to push my group (i think i can pass this off as him setting up the group in this way specifically to push this angle)

the thing is... eddie was pretty hard town-reading kokichi yesterday for some reason (not really sure why) so even if he's suspicious of me (his last post about me indicated he thought i was town) i dont think he's suspicious of kokichi. but IF he does get suspicious of me, i think he's gonna use his role to swap kokichi out before lynching our group. he's also suspicious of REAL MAN and maybe buj? i predict a possibility where he swaps buj into the group with wisdom and tries to lynch that too

the reasoning for splitting the D1G2 people (kok+wisdom+buj) is so that town cannot get any clues about who the guilty party is btw

there's more to explain with regards to this choice in splits but think about it anyway

[zMuffinMan]

oh and the DV kill is just because i want there to be "why is eddie still alive?" suspicion floating around plus he's the least likely to think kokichi is town i think?

[zMuffinMan]

we can't kill wisdom and buj for obvious reasons

so that leaves eddie + DV + real man + NSG

eddie i want to leave in because he might use his role in a way that's beneficial to us and there's gonna be suspicion about why he didn't die that alleviates some suspicion on me and such plus wisdom is going to take the bait 100% and go after any group that has me+eddie in it

so that leaves DV + real man + NSG

i _think_ people will have suspicion of real man, so i don't think he's a good kill
NSG is a maybe but her read on kokichi is good for us

thus DV (who thought buj was most town in G2 and who heavily suspects fitz plus may put 2+2 together if given time?)

[zMuffinMan]

split all three D1G2 into three different groups because that's just common sense; any group with wisdom+buj in it is going to have people questioning "HEY WHY ARE THE TWO PEOPLE THAT COULD BE SCUM IN TEH SAME GROUP? THAT SEEMS TOO EASY"

wisdom would split them all up so he can push suspicion on the other two groups, buj i dunno but it would make sense to do the same

only thing we need to figure out is whether there are problems with any split such that someone could very easily say "i wouldnt split this way because..." (despite it being WIFOM)

[zMuffinMan]

hm

there's a lot of different ways to split it but i do think all three D1G2 need to be in different groups whatever the split

if we do fitz+NSG it needs to include one of wisdom+buj+kok imo

[zMuffinMan]

e.g. could do wis+fitz+nsg

kokichi+eddie+realman

me+buj?

dunno

[zMuffinMan]

i guess not killing DV is an option but given the game state and where reads lie this seems not a bad decision

[zMuffinMan]

i guess i dunno where eddie's suspicions are gonna lie but i think wisdom+realman+one (maybe fitz?)

[zMuffinMan]

man DV's plan to swap fitz for buj would have WRECKED us but nobody ever listens to DV lololol

[zMuffinMan]

id prefer not having wisdom + realman together because it might breed suspicion that wisdom is scum who swapped realman-scum in yesterday to save him

[zMuffinMan]

do we need to pick a player to submit the kill? seems pointless in a game without night actions

i guess there could be a bomb or something though? doubt it, that would just be stupid

[zMuffinMan]

if you get lynched, wisdom could still theoretically be scum so im not too worried about that

e.g. if wisdom was scum who planned to have you fake a guilty then pull the switch thing to get two townies lynched by lynching outside the group, then calling you scum the next day to bus you

hm

[zMuffinMan]

WELL technically the role PMs are vague about it (because each one says we have 1-shot of it) but the rules say scum only gets 1 factional kill

technically though we each have a 1-shot kill according to our roles! we should each kill different people and complain to the listmods if implosion denies our request

[zMuffinMan]

imo you should kill NSG and ill kill implosion for good measure

[zMuffinMan]

i think 1-1-1 isn't so bad if we can reasonably predict eddie's choice for moving maybe

but 2-1-0 might be fine