Partition Mafia Dead Thread

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Spoiler: The mafia

havingfitz, Kokichi Oma, zMuffinMan.

Spoiler: The setup

Basically, none of the power roles in the game are EV-impacting. There are four symmetric power roles in the game (3 town, 1 mafia). One of them can go from one group to another. One of them can move someone else from one group to another. One of them can swap groups with someone else. One of them can swap groups between two other people.

The fifth power role simply removes someone from their group. And that's it.

Making this topic now because people are talking about setup balance and they're very wrong about it

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In short, Eddie is right that town only gets 1 "mislynch", but he is wrong that this makes the setup unbalanced. This:

yes, mislynches are less likely by a bit because of the fact there's less mislynchable slots,

is a

drastic

understatement. In a 1-1-1 split, the situation Eddie is discussing, it is *literally* impossible to mislynch on day one. It's 1/3 to mislynch on day two, compared to a typical ~3/4 odds in a regular setup. If scum go for an even-as-possible split, it is EXTREMELY unlikely compared to an average setup that town will mislynch.

As for the "best case scenario for town" argument:

we have a 5 / 4 / 4 day 1, each with 1 scum. we are assuming optimal lynching for this scenario. we lynch a 4.

that leaves the number at 7:2 going into night. we enter the day with 3 / 3 / 3, with 2 of the 3 containing scum. IF we mislynch and hit 3 town, its 4:2 going into night and then 3:2 going into day, so lylo. 1 mislynch.

if we lynch correctly, its 5:1, and day starts with 2 / 2 / 2 and 1 of those groups contains a scum. if we mislynch, 2 out of 3 of the slots filling that bill, then we are 3:1 and a night kill or not leaves it at mylo / lylo tomorrow. 1 mislynch.

This is correct that this is the best case scenario for town if scum do this kind of split. However, the town has barely *actually* accomplished anything in this scenario; they correctly lynched a 3-town-1-scum group over a 4-town-1-scum group (which is a very nominal difference in this setup), and then they correctly got a 2/3 chance to lynch a group with scum on d2. This:

he's right, though (not that it really matters and this is a boring discussion)

the scenario he gave is a good example. town's win chances if it reaches 5:1 are 50% but if you factor in that comes after a 1/3 chance of hitting an all-town group, it's less than that overall

is incorrect; the town's win odds if it reaches 5:1 and they still have a nightkill are 5/9. To win, scum has to dodge the lynch at 2:2:2 groups (2/3 chance), then dodge the lynch again at 1:1:1 lylo (2/3 chance), for total scum EV of (2/3) * (2/3) = 4/9.

I have a very strong suspicion (that I have not yet proven) that the EV of the version of this setup that is mountainous with no scum nightkill is exactly the same as the EV of the same town:scum ratio for a regular nightless game. 4:8 nightless is 50/50 EV, so there's one extra player and scum get a nightkill to mitigate the fact that nightless tends to swing townsided due to scum never getting to kill the towniest players. Then add onto that the competing factors between scum deciding the groups, and town getting a ton of information based on how scum decide the groups. EV wise this setup is very probably extremely tightly balanced; in practice it's sort of unclear how all of these factors will interact.

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Spoiler:

Holy hell this has some hilarious potential of a 5-town group getting lynched and kokichi turning into a mafia treestump.

I hope it happens.

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Man this game is fascinating.

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Spoiler: From the mafia private topic

btw, i don't actually think there are 4 manipulation roles in the game; only 3

i'm just adding the mysterious 'self-mover' into the mix so mine looks less like the OBVIOUS SCUM ONE THANKS IMPLOSION

actual lmao.

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Spoiler: The NK is slated to likely be

either Eddie Cane, the last claimed power role, or DeasVail, who happens to be the only unclaimed power role.

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Alright yeah i'm lazy and everyone's going to look at spoilers anyway~

My interpretation of what happened with Kokichi's claim is that he saw group 2 as the best lynch (since scum were split 1-1-1 and it had the most people in it), and so he made the claim to take his group down with him. But then the swapping shenanigans came into play. I don't think he ever intended to create this 1-scum-in-this-group dynamic, but it's largely worked for scum so far obviously. I could be wrong.

An investigative role in this setup would be absurdly strong since it's pseudo-nightless - if the role Kokichi was claiming (1-shot censor that detects if scum exists in a group) managed to get a negative result on a group of 4-5 people, the game would be very close to literally over. Of course, if it just got an innocent result on a single person, scum could play around that with either the nightkill or by grouping them with scum/scummy people.

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Looking like a very likely scum win today. They briefly had the opportunity to quickhammer and will likely get it again.