Mini Normal 2012: Tropical Mafia [Endgame]

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VOTE: TheRampage

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I'm caught up with the day's worth of posts, most of them full of sound and fury, but...

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Dacy made some insightful comments and BBT is asking his usual questions. They're probably not going to get my vote today.

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I thought Shoshin was.questioning the consistency of Invisibility's reads. I don't like that Rampage immediately jumped on it as a slip.

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I hope by "do stuff" you don't mean saying the same thing over and over again about 18. Because we should have exhausted that topic 9 pages ago.

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Why does your lynch plan have the other three names on it?

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Claim looks townie to me, but not pro-town.

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I disagree.

Rampage is 100% being bussed.

Can you explain what makes you think that?

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I don't like HF's use of "wtf" - his reaction seems a bit over-the-top.

bad

JJD vs Shoshin is not SvS

VOTE: Shoshin

VOTE: JJD
scummiest person right now for me

Invisibility, join me on Mumble!

you were literally voting me a few posts ago what

So what? I'm voting Mumble now and you should join.

i like this better
VOTE: Shoshin

So do you now think that it was SvS?

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Catching up and trying to recover from the long weekend....

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When I first read Shoshin's 455, the case on Mumble, I thought it made some sense. But it seems to make more sense to me if Invisibility and Mumble are both scum and trying to protect each other while still leaving the possibility open for bussing later on.

I understand Shoshin's thinking that scum have more reason to be paranoid than town, but everyone is paranoid to some degree when playing this hame.

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This game*

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VOTE: Invisibility
I didn't like his quick vote on JJD toDay, followed by a vote for Shoshin, the 2 people he said were not SvS.

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VOTE: Invisibility
I didn't like his quick vote on JJD toDay, followed by a vote for Shoshin, the 2 people he said were not SvS.

can you chime in on shoshin's idea that mumbles making a reading mistake is AI which makes mumbles scum.

I don't think that's the entire case on Mumble, and I do think reading mistakes can be AI, but are not necessarily AI. A lot of whether something is AI or not is meta based. What does that person usually do as scum or as town? As a general rule, I think Shoshin is correct, that scum usually are more paranoid and are more likely to make a mistake of the sort Mumble made. But the post was confusing and I can easily see how it could be misread, and so I think in this case it doesn't mean very much.

But I did say earlier that it looks like a lot of Shoshin's case on Mumble is related to how he has interacted with Invisibility. I think Invis is the better lynch. If Invis flips scum, I'm definitely going to have a hard look at and re-evaluate Mumble.

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If Shoshin is scum I need a serious reevaluation of this game.

I'm like 95% sure that Shoshin is flipping scum here though.

I agree totally with your first sentence.

And I, of course, don't understand your second sentence or why you waited until Invis was at L-1 to do this.

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I'm town and was not given any information last night. What makes you think that Shoshin was? Do you know who fed you the information? Could it have been scum?

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I have been town reading both BBT and Shoshin. I have no idea what to make of this, and without more info, don't know how I'll ever make anything of it.

I still think Invis is probably scum. I'm not sure what you were expecting to see at L-1, BBT. A fake claim?

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I wasn't role-blocked. I don't think I would have been high on scum's priority list after my D1.

I had to look up Loyal in the wiki. It says that if you target scum, it will be the same as if you were role-blocked. So either someone else has your pear and could confirm the redirection, or you were role-blocked, or your pear went to scum, either Shoshin or redirected to scum. Ugh.

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It seems to me that using BBT's role to build a trusted town block could be more effective than targeting scum with it.

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I'm surprised that BBT is dead, confirming his role. I realize it's wifom, but if Shoshin is scum, I'd have thought they'd leave BBT alive.

VOTE: Shoshin
Hard evidence over my gut town read.

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UNVOTE:

I do want to hear from Shoshin, and see if anyone has new info.

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We haven't seen anything but town flips. I'm not sure what good associations are going to do is at this point.

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Jarjar, you are the one wanting to discuss. What do you have to discuss?

Pedit..If someone jailkept bbt n1, I want to make sure they have a chance to tell us that.

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I wouldn't have claimed, and I'm not positive it's correct now, but want to make sure everyone has a chance.

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Idk, but it can't hurt, can it? Maybe she'll reveal her teammates?

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VOTE: Shoshin

L-1

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VOTE: Shoshin

L-1

Are you very against waiting a day to lynch?

No. But everyone has posted. We've heard from Shoshin. I've got what I was waiting for.

I kind of wonder if JJD 2.0 is just pretending to take your side in an attempt to earn some town cred.

Huh? Can you explain this please?

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Ditto Tex. Where's the townie paranoia that BBT is scum fake-claiming?

I wasn't role-blocked. I don't think I would have been high on scum's priority list after my D1.

I had to look up Loyal in the wiki. It says that if you target scum, it will be the same as if you were role-blocked. So either someone else has your pear and could confirm the redirection, or you were role-blocked, or your pear went to scum, either Shoshin or redirected to scum. Ugh.

You could infer some level of paranoia by the fact that I went to look up Loyal in the wiki to fact check his claim, but in fact, I never could see any scum motivation for a fake claim by scum!BBT. He was one of my first town reads and the claim solidified that read.

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Is it time for a mass claim?

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I am thinking that Shoshin was probably right on Mumble. If I had to vote right now, that's where I'd vote.

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Lynch this:

Judge Joseph Dredd

- See Gustavos post about him playing the "too dumb for scum" card. There's just no way in hell he comes to the the conclusion that shosh is town and not address BBTs guilty on him. This is the next lynch for sure. Even if by some chance shosh doesnt flip scum it's the next lynch.

If you're making a case against Dredd, you should include the fact that JarJar was the NK after the above post.

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Why do you think JarJar was the NK?

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Why do you think JarJar was the NK?

Could have been done because scum was scared that JarJar would have made a hard push on Dredd and been successful. Could have been because scum wanted to setup Dredd and have us believe my aforementioned statement. Could have been a random kill. Could have been for some other unknown reason.

I don't know why, and I don't see how speculating on it is helpful.

I obviously don't know why either, but I don't see the harm in speculating about it. And I get to see reactions to the speculation. While it's far from conclusive, I don't think we should ignore the bits of information that scum give us.

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That's just a lie.

VOTE: Dredd

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Town should be careful voting me here. One vote and scum can hammer me.

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It is mostly your D1 interactions with Shoshin.

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I'm too lazy to go back and reread and quote when you are no longer my top pick for scum. But my general thoughts were that both you and Gustavo were going after Shoshin. I think one of you must be scum, and I think it's you because you backed off some and Gustavo just hardheadedly pushed on.

@mod

What's happened to Gustavo btw?

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Dredd is lying.

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What would convince you tho? It's a pretty good claim. I'd probably believe it if I didn't know he was lying.

You might wonder why Dredd seemed to be against a mass claim in 1169 and 1172 and then seemed to change his mind.

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I think it's a good idea. I would argue that Bacy, as our closest to confirmed town, should decide on the order.

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Bacy got BBT's fruit, or claimed to, and has not been counterclaimed. I realize that she's not confirmed; that's why I said closest to.

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He's obviously false claiming because it's LYLO. He thinks he can win with my lynch. Town won't have a chance to avenge my death and lynch the fake claim tomorrow. I did have hopes for a while that he was town and fake claiming as some sort of reaction test, but that doesn't look possible now.

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He's obviously false claiming because it's LYLO. He thinks he can win with my lynch. Town won't have a chance to avenge my death and lynch the fake claim tomorrow. I did have hopes for a while that he was town and fake claiming as some sort of reaction test, but that doesn't look possible now.

i wouldnt think town would fake claim in a MYLO
if you had hopes for that though, why did you vote him right away in the next post?

My initial reaction was...he's lying effing scum; at least I know who to vote now. Then I calmed down and thought maybe it was a reaction test. Though you are correct, it was wishful thinking, at best. It never seemed very likely.

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Is it time for a mass claim?

Most definitely.

I’ll gladly start.

VT.

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Sorry about needing the prod. I still don't know how to convince anyone that Dredd is lying scum.

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I know Dredd is scum, and I suspect Mumble is scum from the way that Jodax was defending him on D1. I'm guessing that Havo is the other one. Well played, whoever they are.

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Wait! What? So not only did you know that Shoshin could not have received the fruit, but you didn't tell us AND YOU VOTED FOR HER!?????

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Either way, you shouldn't ever rely on what happens at night. I use roles as corroboration for behaviors, but never against.

You should usually rely on a probable guilty.

Mafia is a game of probabilities, no?

ffs...if you don’t think you were blocked why are you not voting your guilty?

until you realize that maybe you had it right at first and that your irrational paranoia and doubts got the better of you, and so you go back to your original plan of lynching scum.

As of his last post, he still believes he has a guilty on you.

It makes no sense not to vote someone you think you have a guilty on.

I need BBT to explain that.

VOTE: Shoshin

Jarjar, you are the one wanting to discuss. What do you have to discuss?

Pedit..If someone jailkept bbt n1, I want to make sure they have a chance to tell us that.

Why wouldn't that have come out D2?

You kept encouraging voting the "guilty" even though you knew it wasn't a guilty.

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Well played, scum.

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I apologize for not being more active. I'm never a heavy poster. Being busy over the holiday weekend didn't help.

My understanding of why people fake claim as town is that they are trying to attract a night kill, that is, when they fake claim seriously and not just for LOLs. But I find that it confuses town and makes things more difficult for town and then scum don't ever kill there anyway.

The early claim from Garuga clearly hurt town. If we had a doc, they should have protected Garuga, but I can see why Mumble didn't JK him because that would essentially turn him into VT, although a live VT.

I would have claimed on D3, before we lynched Shoshin if I were Mumble, but I was town reading Shoshin the entire time.

I'm not sure how town works together as a team when they don't know who is on the team and who is scum.

Can someone point me to the new normal guidelines??

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Thank you both!

Gustavo, it looked believable to me and I looked it up in the wiki, but I don't think it said anything about it being normal or not. I went back and looked at Dredd's posts from D3 and there were a couple of times that he was town reading both Mumble and Shoshin and then flipped to scum reading both of them (or the other way round), but it looked like he had prepared for his claim.