Mini Normal 2012: Tropical Mafia [Endgame]

[Shoshin]

VOTE: TheRampage

[Shoshin]

Rampage is scummier.

[Shoshin]

Garuga's town.

[Shoshin]

Sho: Why do you think Rampage is scummier? The only suspicious thing I've noticed up until now is TBB's OMGUS vote.

Rampage's entrance has that trying-too-hard-scum-vibe.

[Shoshin]

Why is 18 bad?

[Shoshin]

dumb vote and that question was really bad

I disagree. What's "dumb" about the vote? And why is the question "really bad"?

[Shoshin]

My issue with 18 is he said he found the omgus suspicious but didn’t vote it.

Why's that scummy?

[Shoshin]

Cause you don’t rvs vote over something suspicious

Why would scum do this?

[Shoshin]

why are you defending a post from Garuga that he himself admitted was bad?

That's precisely why.

[Shoshin]

Garuga's town because he called his own posts bad, which demonstrates a lack of concern about appearances, and because the OMGUS point shows that he's looking for the underlying meaning to every post, including naked votes during RVS.

[Shoshin]

I didn't say 18 is scummy... 18 calls his own post bad and evidences close inspection of votes (the OMGUS point).

[Shoshin]

If I didn't find Rampage scummy, I'd vote Jar for that shallow attempt to throw a vote my way.

[Shoshin]

Jar, your "reasoning" is based on a misreading/misunderstanding of what I said.

[Shoshin]

The problem with Jar is that he's making his case on me before trying to understand my thinking. That's how scum play, not town.

[Shoshin]

Rampage's follow-up has confirmed my initial read.

[Shoshin]

Is 18 a bad or scummy post independently? Like if he hadn't made post 21, would you be defending/townreading him?

18 isn't independently scummy. And 21 supports that finding. Yes, 18 "looks" bad because Garuga didn't vote the OMGUS, but there's nothing actually scummy about that. Garuga had a reason for voting as he did (would scum?), and while you might disagree with the way he should have used his vote, there's nothing actually scummy about his approach to RVS. If anything, it indicates inexperience, not alignment.

[Shoshin]

Still working out the meaning of their votes.

[Shoshin]

It could be buddying. I don't think TheRampage's opening post was scummy.

This feels town.

[Shoshin]

If I had to guess, I'd say the three votes on Garuga's 18 were town. But those are very weak reads.

[Shoshin]

Why couldn't scum do this? If he makes a bad post as scum, instead of trying to defend it and dig himself into a hole (thus making himself the first real suspect of the game) why doesn't he just admit it was a bad post and try to move on from it?

Scum "could" do anything... and especially in hindsight... this isn't a helpful way to sort alignments.

Jar, your "reasoning" is based on a misreading/misunderstanding of what I said.

The problem with Jar is that he's making his case on me before trying to understand my thinking. That's how scum play, not town.

These two posts appear to contradict each other - scum don't 'misread or misunderstand' a post, they misrep it. In 54, you seem to imply Jar is town and 'misreading' what you wrote and in the second post you're clearly calling him scum for it.

Two things. (1) Different audience: 54 addresses Jar, whereas 55 analyzes him. If I thought Jar had "misrepresented" me, I'd still give him the benefit of the doubt when addressing him directly.

(2) Scum "misread" all the time. The difference is this: When town misread, it's due to confirmation bias (and you can trace the trajectory of that bias based on how they developed the read throughout the game). But when scum misread, the bias comes from a malicious intent to paint a player in the worst light (unlike with confirmation bias, there's no trajectory or grounding for the misread).

Jar interpreted my meaning in the worst light without any grounding for doing so. Or as I put it in 55, he made no attempt to understand my thinking before deciding I was scum, which resulted in biased analysis (i.e. misreading/misunderstanding).

[Shoshin]

I don't see anything try hard in Rampage's first post. Did you find his explanation suspect?

His explanation confirms the amount of thought he put into the post.

[Shoshin]

If I didn't find Rampage scummy, I'd vote Jar for that shallow attempt to throw a vote my way.

I find this pretty strange. He asked a question on something that seemed out of place and voted. That's a pretty normal happening in a game of mafia. I don't see how it stands out this much to you other than that it's a vote for you.

Jar also interpreted my meaning in the worst possible light without any reason to do so, and that bias isn't "normal" at this point in the game.

The problem with Jar is that he's making his case on me before trying to understand my thinking. That's how scum play, not town.

This comes across as defensive. No one else had even commented yet.

I understand why you'd read this as defensive but that wasn't my intent - I was clarifying 51.

[Shoshin]

- I ask you why your defending a bad post and you imply that the reason is because Garuga admitted himself that the post is bad

- I point out that's inconsistent with what you've said so far

I didn't say anything inconsistent. You're assuming that defending Garuga means I automatically agree with Garuga's perception (that his own post is bad). You also ignored 47, which clarified the meaning in 46.

[Shoshin]

No, that's not a natural assumption. Townies don't think to themselves, "oh, X feels town, so now I automatically agree with everything X says." Your blindness on this reveals an unfounded bias against me.

[Shoshin]

I don't like HF's use of "wtf" - his reaction seems a bit over-the-top.

[Shoshin]

No, that's not a natural assumption. Townies don't think to themselves, "oh, X feels town, so now I automatically agree with everything X says."

This post is confusing.

Are you saying that I'm calling you scummy because you don't agree with Garuga even tho u townread him?

No, that's not what I'm saying. But your overuse of leading questions is also scummy.

[Shoshin]

You're assuming that defending Garuga means I automatically agree with Garuga's perception (that his own post is bad).

You said his 18 was bad.

No, I never said 18 was bad. Everything I said prior to Jar's vote suggested 18 was fine. And after Jar's vote, I said it "looks" bad but isn't scummy.

[Shoshin]

I'd still lynch Jar after Rampage. His overuse of leading questions suggests a predetermined desire to scumread me rather than an openness to figure out my intended meaning. He wants to tell a particular story instead of following the evidence.

[Shoshin]

OK but do u really think I'm scummy for assumming that what you meant was that 18 bad?

Yes, your baseless assumption was scummy because it formed the "inconsistency" that led you to vote for me. Why make the assumption if everything I'm doing suggests that 18 isn't scummy? The only plausible answer is a predetermined desire to interpret my meaning in a scummy light. Again, that's how scum play, not town. Now, I've said everything I want to at this point about why you're scummy, so unless you're trying to sort my alignment, let's not clutter the game with a pointless back-and-forth.

[Shoshin]

How do you still have Rampage ahead of me?

You're voting him, so I don't see why that's a mystery.

[Shoshin]

JJD vs Shoshin is not SvS

Why is JJD town?

[Shoshin]

JJD vs Shoshin is not SvS

Why is JJD town?

when did I say that JJD was town

In 143... that's why I quoted it.

[Shoshin]

Invisibility, what's your read on JJD? If the conversation wasn't SvS, what was it? SvT? If so, why aren't you townreading JJD? And why are you scumreading me?

[Shoshin]

I don't see how that's really strange, though. I feel like framing people being scum and thinking their doing things for scum reasons is indicative of town and kind of the purpose of this game.

You're very wrong about "the purpose of this game" for town. It's not to "frame people as scum," it's to figure out who the scum are. It's the scum who frame townies because the scum already know the alignments. Town follow the evidence where it leads; scum distort or ignore the evidence to tell a particular story. JJD distorted 46 to mean that I viewed 18 as scummy, ignored 47 (where I clarify the meaning in 46), and on that basis voted me for an "inconsistency" that doesn't actually exist unless you distort 46 and ignore 47. In other words, JJD isn't following the evidence where it leads, he's distorting and ignoring evidence to tell a particular story. And that isn't "strange" (never said it was), it's "scummy."

[Shoshin]

Why avoid answering?

I didn't get the sense that Jar was asking in good faith, and as I said in a post soon after, I wanted Jar to stop asking me pointless questions that were cluttering the game.

[Shoshin]

This entire sequence lacks internal consistency:

I don't like HF's use of "wtf" - his reaction seems a bit over-the-top.

bad

JJD vs Shoshin is not SvS

VOTE: Shoshin

By voting me, Invisibility strongly implies that JJD is town.

JJD vs Shoshin is not SvS

Why is JJD town?

when did I say that JJD was town

But apparently Invisibility never read JJD as town? So the "JJD v Shoshin is not SvS" statement is bullshit...

not really?

i just said it wasn't SvS because it didn't seem like a scum and a scum talking to each other.

And when poked, he denies reading JJD as town. This is an actual example of an internal inconsistency, as Invisibility behaves as if JJD is town yet doesn't want to actually take that stance. And if anyone thinks I'm avoiding questions, take a look at this: Invisibility clearly doesn't want to admit what his behavior so clearly demonstrates.

Invisibility, what's your read on JJD? If the conversation wasn't SvS, what was it? SvT? If so, why aren't you townreading JJD? And why are you scumreading me?

feel kind of weird about him but that situation brings him to a townlean. it was either SvT or TvT but, given the people he spoke with, it was probably SvT

He feels "weird" about JJD... and the Shoshin-JJD interaction is either "SvT or TvT" but he's voting me?

VOTE: Invisibility

[Shoshin]

You're very wrong about "the purpose of this game" for town. It's not to "frame people as scum," it's to figure out who the scum are. It's the scum who frame townies because the scum already know the alignments. Town follow the evidence where it leads; scum distort or ignore the evidence to tell a particular story. JJD distorted 46 to mean that I viewed 18 as scummy, ignored 47 (where I clarify the meaning in 46), and on that basis voted me for an "inconsistency" that doesn't actually exist unless you distort 46 and ignore 47. In other words, JJD isn't following the evidence where it leads, he's distorting and ignoring evidence to tell a particular story. And that isn't "strange" (never said it was), it's "scummy."

Any opinion on havingfitz also saying that you implied that 18 is bad?

HF didn't say I "implied" anything, he thinks I said it was bad, period. So HF doesn't know how to read... is it indicative of alignment? I dunno. I'm suspicious but not enough to commit yet because a lot of what he's doing could just be how he plays - when I have the chance, I'm planning on reading some of his games to get a better sense of how he plays.

[Shoshin]

I thought Shoshin was.questioning the consistency of Invisibility's reads. I don't like that Rampage immediately jumped on it as a slip.

I think it's natural to assume that JJD is a townread for invisibility if he says that invisibility/shosin is not SvS and immediately votes shosin. why is there a talk about a slip..?

I'm with these two.

These three are probably town.

[Shoshin]

I got the impression TheRampage is a VI from his obnoxious and grammarific typing style.

Why VI rather than scum?

[Shoshin]

You're very wrong about "the purpose of this game" for town. It's not to "frame people as scum," it's to figure out who the scum are. It's the scum who frame townies because the scum already know the alignments. Town follow the evidence where it leads; scum distort or ignore the evidence to tell a particular story. JJD distorted 46 to mean that I viewed 18 as scummy, ignored 47 (where I clarify the meaning in 46), and on that basis voted me for an "inconsistency" that doesn't actually exist unless you distort 46 and ignore 47. In other words, JJD isn't following the evidence where it leads, he's distorting and ignoring evidence to tell a particular story. And that isn't "strange" (never said it was), it's "scummy."

Any opinion on havingfitz also saying that you implied that 18 is bad?

HF didn't say I "implied" anything, he thinks I said it was bad, period. So HF doesn't know how to read... is it indicative of alignment? I dunno. I'm suspicious but not enough to commit yet because a lot of what he's doing could just be how he plays - when I have the chance, I'm planning on reading some of his games to get a better sense of how he plays.

So at least 2 people have said they think u said/implied that 18 is bad.

The whole reason u scumread me is because ur saying that I'm twisting your words. Do you really think someone assuming that "looks bad but isn't scummy" means that u think the post is bad is jumping to conclusions?

If you actually said 18 was bad, would you think my scumread of u would be

justified

?

Who said that I said 18 was bad? You, HF, and who else? In either case, you were the first and HF is on my list of scum...

Yes, you were jumping to conclusions because (a) I hadn't said anything about 18 "looking" bad when you voted me, (b) 47 clearly indicates that I don't think 18 is bad, and (c) as you yourself admit, all my questions and posts prior to your vote suggested that 18 wasn't bad, so why would you assume I thought it was bad? If all my behaviors suggest 18 isn't bad and I never said anything that implies 18 is bad, why would you make that assumption?

I don't like the word "justified," because town don't (or shouldn't) think in terms of whether reads are "justified," but yes, if I said 18 was bad (I didn't) but all my actions suggested it was good, then a scumread would be fine (not justified, but fine).

[Shoshin]

Rampage, is this your first game of mafia?

[Shoshin]

It was just a little funny to me that his defense is like, so you seriously think JJD is town. Not that you are scummier or anything. Feels almost as if it was a slip cause he doesn't really come out and say he shouldn't think he is scum.

Why do you assume my post was defensive in nature?

[Shoshin]

It was just a little funny to me that his defense is like, so you seriously think JJD is town. Not that you are scummier or anything. Feels almost as if it was a slip cause he doesn't really come out and say he shouldn't think he is scum.

Why do you assume my post was defensive in nature?

I didn't assume it was defensive. I made the observation that it was interesting to me that you chose not to defend yourself really, but to question Garuga's town read on JJD.

Not Garuga's townread, Invisibility's. And if you didn't think it was defensive, why do you analyze my post as a "defense"?

[Shoshin]

Invisibility - scumlean. the whole not SvS thing looks bad and his iso has alot of shallow posts
TheRampage - scum. his seems to shade shoshin a bit but is very reluctant to vote there. Also he hasn't talk about another player in the game (aside from his most recent terribad vote for joda)
Shoshin - scum. I've posted plenty about my read here

Invisibility/Rampage/JJD team makes lots of sense.

[Shoshin]

You're assuming that defending Garuga means I automatically agree with Garuga's perception (that his own post is bad).

You said his 18 was bad.

Where?

[Shoshin]

Jar, please respond to my questions in 197.

[Shoshin]

You're assuming that defending Garuga means I automatically agree with Garuga's perception (that his own post is bad).

You said his 18 was bad.

Where?

why'd u just dig that up? u already responded to it.

I responded in a way that didn't require a response on HF's part, but actually I need to understand his error better to read him.

[Shoshin]

Rampage, you didn't answer my question. Why'd you assume my post was a "defense"?

[Shoshin]

why are you defending a post from Garuga that he himself admitted was bad?

That's precisely why.

To me this post is you admitting that 18 is bad.

How so?

Garuga's town because he called his own posts bad, which demonstrates a lack of concern about appearances, and because the OMGUS point shows that he's looking for the underlying meaning to every post, including naked votes during RVS.

Why do you keep reading 46 without taking into account 47?

[Shoshin]

To me this post is you admitting that 18 is bad.

Why do you use the word "admitting" when nobody ever asked me if 18 was bad?

[Shoshin]

Jar, why didn't you unvote after 50? It should have clarified your misunderstanding.

[Shoshin]

Why do you keep reading 46 without taking into account 47?

because 47 is simply you just explaining why you townread garuga.

I never asked you why you townread him. I wanted to know why you were specifically defending post 18.

47 refers to 18. So, again, why are you ignoring 47 when evaluating the meaning of 46? And you still haven't explained how 46 implies that 18 is bad.

[Shoshin]

47 just explains why you would be defending Garuga. It doesn't explain why you'd be specifically defending that post.

47 refers directly to the content in 46 ("calling own posts bad is town because it shows lack of concern about appearances") as well as to why 18 is town (the point in 46 as well as the OMGUS point). And I clarified this further in 50. Again, why didn't you unvote after post 50?

[Shoshin]

So 3 people that you weren't scumreading said the post is bad AND the person that made the post said it was bad.


Like the bottom line is that 18 is bad and you defended it.

If 3 people I'm townreading think the a post is scummy, that doesn't mean I agree with those 3 people that the post is scummy.

You never once questioned the reasons I defended the post. If you think my reasons are bad, you should have said so. But you didn't. Never. Not once did you say I defended Garuga for bad reasons. HF did, but not you.

[Shoshin]

And you still haven't explained how 46 implies that 18 is bad.

when I ask why are you defending a bad post and you give a reason and that reason isn't "because it wasn't a bad post" then you're conceding that the post is bad.

You didn't ask why I was defending a bad post. You asked why I was defending a post that Garuga called bad. There's a big difference. Again, you're trying to distort the actual events that happened.

[Shoshin]

I don't even know who to vote between Invisibility, JJD, and Rampage. They're all scum. I'm happy to lynch any of these guys today.

[Shoshin]

This is the best way to sort aligments - you weigh up the motivation/intent behind a post and decide whether it's more likely to come from town or scum. You just said yourself that scum could easily backtrack on a bad post, especially with hindsight, so I'm asking you why you're so sure it has come from town.

Yes, evaluating the motivation/intent behind a post is valuable way to sort alignments, as is evaluating the probability that said motivation/intent comes from town or scum. But that's not what you asked - you asked "why couldn't scum do this," which is a pointless question because scum "could" do anything... The focus needs to be on what town or scum "probably" do, not what they "could" do, and I think it's unlikely that an inexperienced scum would admit their own post was bad because inexperienced scum tend to get defensive when attacked ("no, it's not bad, this is what I meant") or they lash out with OMGUS ("no, you're scum for attacking me"). Garuga responded the way an inexperienced townie is likely to react - trying to figure out why someone thinks his post was bad, recognizing that he did something wrong, and admitting the error. You're right that scum "could" fake that, but I don't think it's likely given the player in question, the point in the game (RVS), and the follow-up explanation.

If you thought someone was misrepping you, why would you give them the benefit of the doubt. That doesn't make sense.

There's two ways to approach your scumreads. One, you don't address them directly at all because they're scum and there's no point in talking with scum. Two, you recognize the possibility that you're wrong about their alignment, so you continue to address their concerns while constantly reevaluating alignments. I adopt the latter approach because the former promotes confirmation bias and often leads to missed opportunities to refine reads, whereas the latter often allows you to reach a better understanding about who the scum are. So even though I might read someone as scum, I continue to speak to them, to ask them questions, and to address their concerns. And if you're going to address someone directly, it's much more effective to speak to them as if they're town because doing so ensures they understand what you're saying without going on the defensive. In JJD's case, for example, if JJD is town, then saying he's "misrepping" me when I speak directly to him doesn't help because it immediately makes him suspect what I'm saying - he's going to think I'm the one "misrepping" him because in a townie's mind I'm the one who is wrongly calling his intent malicious - when my intent was simply to let him know that he misunderstood my intent. I don't think there's any point addressing a scumread directly if you're going to speak to them as if they're scum, because it usually leads to people talking past each other, instead of allowing folks to reach an understanding that might actually lead to a change in opinion. You're welcome to disagree with my approach, but in my experience it's much more effective to play this way and I suggest you try it out.

Your point relating to confirmation bias and a 'trajectory' is absolute nonsense. More often than not, it is scum who have a perfect 'trajectory' on a read because they are more aware that their read HAS to look good and believable to the rest of the town. Conversely, town are much more likely to be whimsical with their reads because they know they're town and don't have any other agenda other than to find scum.

I disagree, and you're misunderstanding my point. First off, when I say that there's a "trajectory" to a townie's bias, whereas there's no such thing for scum, what I mean is that scum are biased by nature - they operate from an informed perspective, with a predetermined objective to lynch people they already know are town - whereas townies develop a "bias" based on things that happen in the game itself. Yes, town tend to be whimsical, but that doesn't mean there isn't a "trajectory" to the reads - town change their reads naturally and fluidly because they're actually reevaluating reads in light of new information, to figure the game out. Scum struggle to react naturally to new information because they already know all the alignments, so while they might have a "trajectory," it tends to be less fluid and more mechanical. So, yeah, focusing on the way people change their reads is an excellent way to scumhunt.

Second, my point is that town always have a "trajectory" of some sort when there's bias to their read, because townies show bias only as a result of something that happened in the game, not because of their underlying nature. Scum, on the other hand, sometimes show bias without any "trajectory" because scum are in fact biased by nature. I'm not saying scum always show their bias (it's often a matter of competence, as well as their chosen strategy). The scum bias comes out mostly when scum try to distort certain pieces of information, to ignore certain things while emphasizing others, or assuming thing without basis (these unfounded assumptions are what townies often look for as evidence of an informed perspective). In this case, JJD made an assumption without any basis, he emphasized a single post (46) while completely ignoring clarification in the next post (47) and a subsequent post (50), and he's continued to argue that his assumption was "justified" despite all the actual evidence suggesting otherwise. That's what I mean by a scum bias with no basis in the game (i.e. no trajectory).

[Shoshin]

And he STILL hasn't said anything of significance about why rampage is his top scumread.

I would actually like to see a response to this from Shoshin.

At the time JJD posted this, Rampage was my top scumread because his initial post felt fearful (the "checking in" language doesn't fit with RVS), self-conscious (changing his vote because someone else took it), and overly-try-hard (putting way too much thought on who to vote in RVS), and his follow-up confirmed how much thought he had put into that first post (more than I'd expect from town Rampage). That, and all the things others have said - he's made no attempt to find scum, he threw an attack my way but nowhere else (consistent with inexperienced scum who respond to attacks by voting their attacker, especially when others are also voting the attacker).

The reason I had posted so much about JJD but little about Rampage is because I received lots of questions about JJD and little about Rampage, and also because there was no need to say anything about Rampage because others were realizing he was scummy on their own. In general, I'd rather say less than more when it comes to explaining my reads/votes, because I try to influence how others think about the game as little as possible until we reach end of day. But I'm realizing that the meta on this site is a bit backwards, or undeveloped, so people keep getting on my case for saying too little - so fuck it, I'll start posting more walls and explaining exactly what I'm thinking, because as much as I think it's less effective in a better meta, the meta on this site clearly requires an adaptation to my style. Oh well.

[Shoshin]

There's another issue I had with Rampage earlier that I forgot about but just remembered upon rereading - the whole "trap" thing assumes that I'm town, which means Rampage thinks I'm town but refuses to actually take that position, and to the contrary, actually sets himself up to eventually vote me down-the-road (not to mention that he was actively trying to discredit what I was saying, despite Rampage's claims that he wasn't defending himself). More recently, this post bothers me:

I have to agree with Jar Jar right there. I mean, you have seriously pushed for me for the majority of the game; and while I would appreciate being one less vote, I think it is fishy that with very little proof or reason, you would go after Jar Jar before me.

This kind of post is why I scum read Rampage. This post is awkward, defensive, and out of tune with the game.

How is what I am saying defensive? I am questioning some one's read. I do nothing at all to defend myself from Shoshin's vote on me. I have not even voted because to me right now, there is no one that really stands out. I have this feeling like you have a little bit of tunnel vision. I think the saying, I could cure cancer and you would find fault in it, applies to you. I personally think your reason for voting me or find me scummy is weak, which is why I haven't addressed it, but now I will. As I said before, I think Shoshin tried to trap scum by giving a bad reason for voting me to see how I would react and to see how others would react. You however have some how developed an even worse reason to vote for me and are actually sticking to it. I feel like because you are a few votes down, you feel like you can try to direct and lead people towards my lynch, and you will then fall off into obscurity when I flip town. I have had a gut feeling about you since you appeared in the game, and now I feel more so.

VOTE: Jodaxq

It shows what I suspected, which is that Rampage self-consciously thinks he was doing nothing to defend himself (even though he was clearly trying to discredit my vote and setting up for voting me down-the-road), Rampage thinks that was town of him to do (it shows a very cautious mindset), and he continues to suggest that I'm town (the "trap" analysis) while making other posts that suggest I'm scum.

[Shoshin]

I disagree with your "no attempt to find scum" quip on TheRampage: 80 132 198 look like scumhunting to me (regardless of the actual quality of the posts). He also attacked Jodaxq by voting her, which invalidates your claim.

As for the meta: I seem to be doing okay with less frequent, shorter posts. Maybe that's just because people aren't asking me many questions since they're too busy bickering about if a post I made in page 1 is bad or not.

Re: Rampage - I strongly disagree. How do 80, 132, and 198 evidence any scumhunting? How is voting Jodax anything but defensive under the circumstances?

Re: meta - you're one of the people who gave me shit about not explaining reads enough...

[Shoshin]

TheRampage directly read a post as scum. That's direct scumhunting. I didn't say voting Joda wasn't defensive, I said it invalidated your claim of him only attacking you.

I knew he attacked others but I meant up to the point when JJD voted me again.

[Shoshin]

Garuga, I still want to know how 80, 132, or 198 evidence scumhunting.

[Shoshin]

Bacy's question isn't weird. I had the exact same response to Havo's question. I don't like the idea of telling the scum exactly who my strongest townread is, nor do I see how my answer offers any "insight" to my alignment. I'll say that Tex is my weakest townread of the three. The other two are fairly strong town.

[Shoshin]

Garuga, I still want to know how 80, 132, or 198 evidence scumhunting.

Does it really matter?

@Shoshin,

Who’s more town out of textcat, Jodaxq and Bacy?

what are you hoping to get out of this question?

that was a weird question by bacy.

This feels off. Gustavo asks the same type of question as Bacy (questioning a question), except Gustavo's question is leading rather than open... and then he calls the question weird...

[Shoshin]

it isn't the same type of question though.

Why is your question "okay" but Bacy's "weird"? What's the intent behind your question? What were you hoping to learn?

[Shoshin]

Why? What is scum gonna do with that information?

It gives them a better idea about who they should bring to LYLO.

[Shoshin]

it isn't the same type of question though.

Why is your question "okay" but Bacy's "weird"? What's the intent behind your question? What were you hoping to learn?

my question is ok because I asked it.

but seriously. what is the point of asking him to explain how it is scum hunting especially when he sort of does already iirc. If he explains it, are you going to change your opinion? I don't think so.

bacy is questioning havo's attempt to try and get somebody to provide reads. Getting reads from people is much more beneficial than asking them to define their idea of scum hunting.

I didn't ask Garuga to define his idea of scumhunting, I asked him to identify where in three specific posts he saw evidence of scumhunting. I clearly have a reason for that, since I asked him more than once after Garuga sort of dodged it the first time. Maybe you don't understand why I'd ask, but that doesn't mean there isn't a reason. Why would you assume there's no reason to my question? How did you expect me to answer your question, yes or no? Either way, what were you hoping to learn there about my alignment? Your question truly seems pointless. Your question doesn't get at my alignment, nor Garuga's alignment, nor do anything except push me to stop trying to figure out Garuga's alignment.

Bacy's question attempts to understand the underlying purpose of Havo's question - and to be clear, Havo's question wasn't simply asking my reads, as those had already been provided - it was asking me to identify my strongest townread among three players I'd already called town. Bacy's question directly gets at Havo's alignment because there's both pro-scum and pro-town reasons for asking Havo's question.

[Shoshin]

Insight

What kind of insight? How would my answer affect your reads?

[Shoshin]

Tex strikes me as a passive player by style, since she's so blatantly passive in a way that I don't think scum would be - she's clearly following the game, developing thoughts (e.g. the post about Bacy/BBT, and the one analyzing my response to Invisibility). It's a weak townread because there's just not much there, and it largely depends on how Text starts playing later.

Jodax is town because her posts show a clear thought process about the game, she's actively scumhunting, and there's some depth to her thoughts.

Bacy's the strongest of those townreads. Everything she's done has been pro-town, from first post to last - she hasn't distorted anything in the game, her analysis is strong, her questions mirror my own.

BBT is also a townread.

[Shoshin]

HF, despite playing poorly, is also a townread. I read some of his scum games and his tone felt very different from here, so that's sort of a meta/tone read. Frustrating, because he's blatantly misreading me, but whatever. His win/loss record reflects his poor reading comprehension skills, I suppose.

[Shoshin]

There is no rush to hammer. That's dumb as fuck.

[Shoshin]

The site I used to play on has the opposite problem - lynches are almost always rushed, to the detriment of towns. I'm not saying we need to drag the game out but I'd like a chance to reread and offer some thoughts.

[Shoshin]

There's a few players I'd like to hear from before Rampage is hammered.

[Shoshin]

Rampage accepting his death but continuing to offer his reads feels kinda town, so I understand Garuga's hesitance on the lynch.

[Shoshin]

BBT, what changed your mind about JJD?

[Shoshin]

I'm tempted to hammer TheRampage so I can make everyone on the wagon look like fools on D2 if he flips town. Would rather lynch Invis or VOTE: JarJarDrinks though, considering his response to my claim and the people he bolded in 372 (two of my scumreads).

I don't understand this turn on JJD. How'd these things change your mind from town to scum? What's your thought process here?

[Shoshin]

I'll hammer after I get a response from Garuga.

[Shoshin]

JJD, you are so fucking pro-scum... Why would you encourage someone to self-hammer? How would that benefit town?

[Shoshin]

So, Garuga opposes the Rampage lynch. Anyone else?

[Shoshin]

VOTE: Rampage

[Shoshin]

LMS, do you play mafia on a different site? Do you have examples of recent town/scum games?

[Shoshin]

Oh shit, wrong game, sorry.

[Shoshin]

Please forgive me mod.

[Shoshin]

VOTE: Invisibility

[Shoshin]

Why?

Besides the points I raised on D1, his continued push on Garuga in the latter part of D1 felt very mechanical (as town, I think his read would have shifted more fluidly), and his refusal to hammer Rampage while doing nothing to prevent the mislynch suggests Invisibility knew Rampage would flip town but had no desire to save his life.

[Shoshin]

HF's failure to reevaluate anything, as well as his non-opposition to the Rampage lynch while never actually taking much of a position about Rampage, worries me. I also think Garuga's death makes a lot of sense from a scum HF perspective (Garuga scumread him, after all).

[Shoshin]

Could you elaborate?

No, your posts peak for themselves. Why JJD?

[Shoshin]

Mumble, before I answer any more of your questions, why don't you tell us your thoughts on the game?

[Shoshin]

Absolutely not. You're bouncing. You answer.

Fuck no. We're on D2 and you've done nothing that meaningfully clears you as town... you're not even voting anyone... take a position, expose your views, show us how you're thinking about the game, and I'll elaborate on my positions. But as things stand, I've voted, I've explained my vote, and I've offered thoughts on other players. It's time for you to start showing us your thought process.

[Shoshin]

VOTE: Mumble

From the way he's playing, he's clearly implied that Invisibility is town in a way that suggests he's pre-inclined to do so (either because Invisibility is his partner, or because he knows Invisibility is town). He read Garuga as scum, he read me as scum, and he jumped on the Rampage lynch when it was popular to do so. In other words, he's voting townies. And he's obscured his alignment by keeping his thoughts to himself, and when pushed to offer some thoughts, he's refused. He'd rather vote me to answer his questions than actually say who he thinks is scum, or vote whoever he thinks is scum. Also, note how he's still voting with support in HF - never making decisions without someone else pursuing the same things. It's time for him to offer some thoughts on the game that don't consist of pointless questions or voting popular wagons or voting without any semblance of a scumhunting mindset. Also, consider how terrible his vote on me is - voting because he doesn't want to offer his own thoughts about the game before I answer more of his questions, as if somehow I'm scum because I want to know his thoughts on the game uninfluenced by my answers).

[Shoshin]

Invisibility, join me on Mumble!

[Shoshin]

Invisibility, join me on Mumble!

you were literally voting me a few posts ago what

So what? I'm voting Mumble now and you should join.

[Shoshin]

i like this better
VOTE: Shoshin

How do you square this with your scumread on JJD?

[Shoshin]

I'm voting Mumble for a few reasons. First, Mumble says he never implied that Invisibility is town, even though he's been defending Invisibility (and thus implying Invisibility is town) on both D1 and D2 - and that's scummy because he's acting in a way that shows he's pre-inclined to read Invisibility as town while refusing to actually commit to a position. Second, Mumble's done very little other than vote townies (me, Garuga, and Rampage) when it was popular (read: opportunistic) to do so. And third, Mumble's unnaturally defensive in a way that betrays a scum perspective.

For those of you who aren't seeing what I'm talking about, here's a post-by-post breakdown:

I haven't seen any questions aimed at me in the last few pages, so here's my prodge:

I getting a vibe from texcat that she'll be easier to sort as the game goes forward and more substantial info comes up. Nullreading her for now.
I think BBT should reveal his townread. Since the only posters between 64 and 71 are me, bacy and Invisibility, I'm guessing it's bacy, but it would be nice to get official confirmation.

Lynchplan:
VOTE: Invisibility
2. havingfitz
3. Shoshin
4. Gustavo

Interesting. Why Invisibility?

Mumble questions Garuga's read on Invisibility.

He's not providing clear arguments for his reads. His "what?" trilogy (151 153 155) is probably the best example, along with the (19 23 28) trio early on.

So why naked vote him (essentially doing what you are scum reading him for) instead of asking him to clarify?

Because I see an alternative reason for your vote...

The Invisibility questioning becomes a defense ("why vote him instead of asking for clarification?").

Um...I'm not new? The re-vote is ridiculous and confusing (especially since I'm having a time differentiating you and Gustavo).

However, you didn't answer my question about clarification, and instead try to throw shade on me for a really weak reason.

VOTE: Garuga

Mumble continues defending Invisibility by voting Invisibility's attacker.

Mumble also interprets Garuga's 311 as an attack when it's clearly not. Seriously, read 311. There's no hint of an attack on Mumble, yet Mumble feels attacked? Scum know townies are after them, so they tend to feel unnaturally defensive when engaging townies in a conversation.

So, assuming the entirety of that was directed at Invisibility (unclear, but I'll assume), I agree with the points he made on you at the time. You feel like you're scum reading him because he voted you.

Mumble continues defending Invisibility. And Mumble continues suggesting that 311 is an attack, even after Garuga clarified that Mumble misinterpreted him.

I think my vote is better served here for the moment.

VOTE: TheRampage

Mumble votes a townie, which has become the popular (and safe) wagon at this point. He offers no reasons for joining the wagon. He's the fifth vote of seven.

Summarize your D1 points. I don't see how his refusal to hammer Rampage while pushing another read is scum oriented. Looking at his ISO, I don't see anything to assume he knew Rampage would flip town and that seems presumptuous./quote]
Mumble continues defending Invisibility by attacking the reasoning for my push. Mumble's blindness is also unnatural - it's fairly obvious why refusing to hammer Rampage while allowing the Rampage lynch to happen is scum-oriented (scum love to let mislynches happen without having to actually vote town themselves), and Invisibility's ISO exhibits further evidence of an informed perspective when Invisibility read Rampage as VI (i.e. scummy but town) (evidence that Mumble has chosen to ignore so that he can attack my push as "presumptuous").

VOTE: Shosin

Now answer my fucking questions.

Mumble votes town, not because he reads me as scum, but because I want him to offer some thoughts on the game uninfluenced by my answers to his questions.

I've not implied that I think Invis is town...I asked why you think he was scum given your naked opening vote. I jumped on Rampage because we hadn't had a wagon at that point, and wagons are good (absent dumbasses who will end the day early with them).

Mumble says he never implied that Invisibility is town... so Mumble's ignoring the pattern of defending Invisibility throughout the game? He doesn't want to take a position on anything. He even disclaims any sort of conviction in the Rampage wagon ("I voted Rampage because wagons are good, not because he was scummy"). There's no hint of any attempt to actually scumhunt or identify scum in his posting, nor is there any attempt to make his alignment known to us - only defensive moves (for himself and Invisibility) and votes on townies without any meaningful conviction behind them.

Invisibility, explain how Mumble's a townread for you? and explain how anything about my push (or its reasoning) is scummy?

[Shoshin]

when did i say that mumble was a townread

You implied it. But please clarify if I'm mistaken - is Mumble town or scum?

[Shoshin]

I didn't push HF. I raised concerns about his play.

[Shoshin]

You are calling him scum while voting another slot.

Do you think there's only one scum in the game?

[Shoshin]

No, but I think it's odd to push one while voting someone else. That is, if you don't know who they are.

I wasn't pushing HF, unless by "push" you mean "raising concerns about a player." I brought up an issue with his play about which I wanted feedback, that's all. It's how I go about refining reads. But even if I were pushing multiple players, there's nothing "odd" about that when you know there's multiple scum. I'm usually pretty happy if my 2nd strongest scumread is the lynch.

[Shoshin]

your reasoning on the scumbuddy/knowing im town thing is bad. especially when you're telling me to join the wagon. also you're being contradictory by calling me scum and then telling me to join the wagon

What's bad about my reasoning? If you're town, don't you find it odd that Mumble keeps defending you while refusing to townread you? The point is that his behavior betrays an informed perspective about your alignment, regardless of whether you're town or scum.

There's nothing contradictory about asking you to join a wagon on Mumble - it's in the town's interest for people to vote scum, regardless of whether the voters are scum/town, plus it's an opportunity for you to show me how you think about the game. It's a reaction test with a pro-town objective. So far, you haven't given me any reason to townread you but I'm constantly reevaluating and if you're town I'd very much appreciate you making that as clear as possible to me.

[Shoshin]

no? its more like Mumble doesn't get why Garuga thought that i should have been lynched. it was less of a defense and more of a callout of poor logic

That's what scum do when they see a townie voting another townie - they call out "poor logic" while refusing to take a position about the player they're implicitly defending. And I've seen that pattern repeat itself in almost every game of mafia I've ever played. Townies behave differently: they usually take a position about both players, as it's only natural for townies to start sorting the relevant players when analyzing the "poor logic" - otherwise how are they even supposed to evaluate the logic?

[Shoshin]

VOTE: Invisibility

I don't really know what I think about this vote. Not necessarily the person you voted for, but the fact that you naked voted to start day 2. You were pretty verbose on day one with no reservations about explaining your thought process. Why a naked vote? Why not give an explanation here?

I wanted to give others a chance to think about Invisibility's alignment without my influencing - plus I had already explained my suspicion on D1.

Why?

Besides the points I raised on D1, his continued push on Garuga in the latter part of D1 felt very mechanical (as town, I think his read would have shifted more fluidly), and his refusal to hammer Rampage while doing nothing to prevent the mislynch suggests Invisibility knew Rampage would flip town but had no desire to save his life.

Isn't this what you were accusing JJD of on day 1? That he interpreted your actions in the worst light without understanding your thinking?

You're right that I accused JJD of interpreting my actions in the worst light without trying to understand where I was coming from. But you're wrong that 430 expresses a similar accusation and I'm unsure how you came to that conclusion.

Could you elaborate?

No, your posts peak for themselves. Why JJD?

I disagree that they speak for themselves in this regard and it really makes your previous explanation seem forced

What do you mean by "seem forced"? Do you disagree that Invisibility's play at the end of D1 felt mechanical? If so, why? What are you getting from his posts?

VOTE: Mumble

From the way he's playing, he's clearly implied that Invisibility is town in a way that suggests he's pre-inclined to do so (either because Invisibility is his partner, or because he knows Invisibility is town). He read Garuga as scum, he read me as scum, and he jumped on the Rampage lynch when it was popular to do so. In other words, he's voting townies. And he's obscured his alignment by keeping his thoughts to himself, and when pushed to offer some thoughts, he's refused. He'd rather vote me to answer his questions than actually say who he thinks is scum, or vote whoever he thinks is scum. Also, note how he's still voting with support in HF - never making decisions without someone else pursuing the same things. It's time for him to offer some thoughts on the game that don't consist of pointless questions or voting popular wagons or voting without any semblance of a scumhunting mindset. Also, consider how terrible his vote on me is - voting because he doesn't want to offer his own thoughts about the game before I answer more of his questions, as if somehow I'm scum because I want to know his thoughts on the game uninfluenced by my answers).

Invisibility, join me on Mumble!

This is what I mean. Your explanations are really inconsistent. You naked vote Invisibility, refuse an explanation, and then provide this explanation and vote all in the same page.
Then, you ask someone who you supposedly scum read to vote with you for who you believe to also be scum. I'm just confused at your progression at this point.

I didn't "refuse an explanation." To the contrary, I explained my vote on Invisibility when questioned.

What's your confusion?

i like this better
VOTE: Shoshin

How do you square this with your scumread on JJD?

You are calling him scum while voting another slot.

Do you think there's only one scum in the game?

These thoughts oppose each other. Invisibility's scum read is bad because he has a different scum read, but it's okay for you to have multiple scum reads?

I never said "Invisibility's scum read is bad because he has a different scum read." My question had to do with Invisibility's earlier claim that "Shoshin vs JJD is not SvS," something that Texcat also picked up on.

I'm voting Mumble for a few reasons. First, Mumble says he never implied that Invisibility is town, even though he's been defending Invisibility (and thus implying Invisibility is town) on both D1 and D2 - and that's scummy because he's acting in a way that shows he's pre-inclined to read Invisibility as town while refusing to actually commit to a position. Second, Mumble's done very little other than vote townies (me, Garuga, and Rampage) when it was popular (read: opportunistic) to do so. And third, Mumble's unnaturally defensive in a way that betrays a scum perspective.

For those of you who aren't seeing what I'm talking about, here's a post-by-post breakdown:

I think you're trying to put a lot more implication in some of these posts than there is. A lot of that looks like standard questioning from Mumble. Once again I feel like you're doing some the things that you yourself claimed were scummy on D1.

Do you disagree with the points I'm making on Mumble? Where exactly do you see me putting more implication than there is? How am I doing the same things that I said were scummy on D1?

[Shoshin]

Joda, do you think Mumble is town or scum? Why?

[Shoshin]

Shoshin, did you miss my first post this day phase?

I saw it. If you're looking for my response: I'm happy to have your support.

[Shoshin]

It's a fine lynch but I'm sticking with Mumble for the moment. Why do you prefer Invisibility?

[Shoshin]

I keep coming back to this:

He's not providing clear arguments for his reads. His "what?" trilogy (151 153 155) is probably the best example, along with the (19 23 28) trio early on.

So why naked vote him (essentially doing what you are scum reading him for) instead of asking him to clarify?

Because I see an alternative reason for your vote...

I was already voting him since 48. I don't think this sort of posting comes from town trying to solve the game. I think it's newbscum trying to discredit me since I voted havingfitz, and Invis's reaction is actually one of the main reasons I scumread HF.

The re-vote confirms my read on him and makes my post a bit more flavorful.

Garuga doesn't cast any suspicion towards Mumble.

Um...I'm not new? The re-vote is ridiculous and confusing (especially since I'm having a time differentiating you and Gustavo).

However, you didn't answer my question about clarification, and instead try to throw shade on me for a really weak reason.

VOTE: Garuga

But Mumble feels attacked? And then votes Garuga? I'm having trouble picturing a townie interpret 311 as an attack.

[Shoshin]

JJD, what's your read on Mumble?

[Shoshin]

JJD, what's your read on Mumble?

As I said, it's possible that BBT is bussing but Invisibility seems more likely.

Apart from that I think I lean town.

How is he leaning town? Why do you disagree with my reasons for suspecting Mumble?

[Shoshin]

I don't understand why everyone is so hesitant to vote Mumble... I laid out exactly why he's scum here... His response to 311 isn't a natural reading of Garuga's post; it shows that Mumble's interacting with town (i.e. Garuga) with a defensive mindset, as if Garuga is after him when Garuga indicated no such thing.

[Shoshin]

Look at 511.

[Shoshin]

I keep coming back to this:

He's not providing clear arguments for his reads. His "what?" trilogy (151 153 155) is probably the best example, along with the (19 23 28) trio early on.

So why naked vote him (essentially doing what you are scum reading him for) instead of asking him to clarify?

Because I see an alternative reason for your vote...

I was already voting him since 48. I don't think this sort of posting comes from town trying to solve the game. I think it's newbscum trying to discredit me since I voted havingfitz, and Invis's reaction is actually one of the main reasons I scumread HF.

The re-vote confirms my read on him and makes my post a bit more flavorful.

Garuga doesn't cast any suspicion towards Mumble.

Um...I'm not new? The re-vote is ridiculous and confusing (especially since I'm having a time differentiating you and Gustavo).

However, you didn't answer my question about clarification, and instead try to throw shade on me for a really weak reason.

VOTE: Garuga

But Mumble feels attacked? And then votes Garuga? I'm having trouble picturing a townie interpret 311 as an attack.

ok I read this. I also read mumble's response to you about this. I also clicked the link mumble provided that showed there was a misunderstanding that garuga clarified and mumble promptly changed his vote.

so now that was previously determined, why are you still using this as a reason to vote mumble?

The misunderstanding is the point... it's an unnatural reading of Garuga's language and reveals a scum perspective. Scum tend to think townies are after them even when they're not, and that's precisely the mindset that Mumble's misunderstanding exhibits. So it doesn't matter if Garuga clarified and Mumble changed his vote. The misunderstanding is the point.

[Shoshin]

That’s the dumbest thing I’ve read in a while. Mistakes happen. People misreading things happen. I almost always end up scum reading the people who scum read me and I do it as town. Your original point has been disproven and now spinning it to something else isn’t going to fly.

Why are you assuming that mistakes aren't indicative of alignment? Haven't you ever heard of something called a "scum slip"? As cognitive science, social psychology, and behavioral economics teaches, mistakes are almost always the result of a cognitive bias. So rather than assume a mistake is nothing more than a mistake, I ask questions about the mistake. I look at what the mistake tells us about a player's unconscious thought patterns and biases. You need to ask what the mistake tells us about Mumble's perspective (is it informed or uninformed? defensive or offensive? directed towards pro-scum or pro-town objectives?), and the answer to that question strongly suggests that Mumble is scum who knows (consciously or unconsciously) that townies are after him.

[Shoshin]

It doesn't matter whether Mumble's interpretation is "reasonable" because reasonableness isn't indicative of alignment. The question we need to ask is whether it's a "natural" interpretation from a town perspective.

In 309, Mumble questions Garuga's read on Invisibility: "why naked vote him instead of asking him to clarify"? Garuga replies in 311: "I was already voting him since 48. I don't think this sort of posting comes from town trying to solve the game. I think it's newbscum trying to discredit me since I voted havingfitz, and Invis's reaction is actually one of the main reasons I scumread HF. The re-vote confirms my read on him and makes my post a bit more flavorful."

311's first sentence ("I was already voting him since 48") clearly refers to Invisibility.

311's second sentence ("I don't think this sort of posting comes from town trying to solve the game") clearly refers to Invisibility when read in context, because it directly responds to a question about Invisibility, the prior sentence refers to Invisibility, and the following two sentences refer to Invisibility.

311's third sentence ("I think it's newbscum trying to discredit me since I voted havingfitz, and Invis's reaction is actally one of the main reasons I scumread HF") clearly refers to Invisibility.

311's fourth sentence ("The re-vote confirms my read on him and makes my post a bit more flavorful") clearly refers to Invisibility.

The only thing 311 has to do with Mumble is that it answers a question Mumble asked in 309. Yet Mumble interprets 311's second sentence, specifically Garuga's "this sort of posting" language, as referring to Mumble's posting in 309. Is that interpretation possible? Yes. It's always possible to distort what the word "this" refers to. But that doesn't mean it's natural to do so, especially since Mumble had no reason to believe Garuga was scum other than his own distorted reading of Garuga's language (and remember, Mumble immediately changed his vote after Garuga clarified his meaning).

So why'd Mumble distort Garuga's language? Cognitive science teaches that this sort of error happens as a result of unconscious biases. What sort of bias underlies Mumble's error? A belief that Garuga is after him. Is that bias indicative of alignment? Yes, because it's a bias that comes exclusively from a scum perspective. While scum would've known that Garuga was after them because scum would've known that Garuga was town, town wouldn't have had any reason to believe Garuga was after them unless they strongly believed that Garuga was scum (and Mumble didn't strongly believe Garuga was scum because he immediately changed his vote after Garuga clarified his meaning). So the specific bias that explains Mumble's error - a belief that Garuga is after him - reveals an unconscious bias that comes only from scum, not town.

[Shoshin]

Did anyone else read 311 as casting shade on Mumble? Or was Mumble the only one to make that error?

[Shoshin]

It's nice to say Mumble's interpretation was "reasonable" in hindsight, but I'm curious if anyone actually interpreted 311 the same way as Mumble.

[Shoshin]

Did anyone else read 311 as casting shade on Mumble? Or was Mumble the only one to make that error?

I didn’t because I wasn’t here to see it progress naturally but I could see it happening

How? Can you walk me through this?

[Shoshin]

I probably could when I get to a computer but does it really matter? It’s not alignment indicative

It matters, so please explain when you're at a computer.

Why isn't it alignment indicative?

[Shoshin]

JJD, I understand how it's "possible" to interpret the post as Mumble did. Lots of interpretations are "possible" when you start isolating sentences and words outside of their context, especially when it comes to words like "this." But that's all besides the point. If you're town, and you're asking Garuga a series of questions about his read on Invisibility, you're not reading that sentence in isolation, you're reading it as part of an answer to your questions, in the context of a previous answer to a previous question, right after a sentence that was clearly about Invisibility, and right before another two sentences that clearly refer to Invisibility. It's difficult to imagine a townie in the middle of that inquiry suddenly isolate a single sentence from the context, emphasize the word "this," and interpret "this" as applying to something outside that original inquiry or context. Can you explain how a townie in Mumble's shoes, who presumably cares about Garuga's answers re: Invisibility more than Garuga's read of Mumble, ends up doing that?

[Shoshin]

Nobody is explaining why this isn't alignment indicative... saying it's not doesn't help me...

[Shoshin]

So Gustavo/JJD/Invisibility disagree with my analysis... I'll wait for others to weigh in.

[Shoshin]

Nobody is explaining why this isn't alignment indicative... saying it's not doesn't help me...

I’d suggest playing some newbie games to learn the ins and outs of mafia.

To quote a fairly famous quote.

“To err is human”

That doesn't answer my question.

[Shoshin]

To quote a fairly famous quote.

“To err is human”

That doesn't mean all mistakes are the same. If they were, how could you scumhunt? The ultimate defense anytime someone suspects you: "oh sorry, it was a mistake, not indicative of alignment."

The reality is this: Scum make unconscious mistakes that reveal their cognitive biases. Town also make unconscious mistakes that reveal their cognitive biases. The difference lies in the type of cognitive bias revealed by the mistake.

[Shoshin]

@shoshin who else u wanna lynch?

I want to lynch Mumble. If Mumble's not an option, I'm willing to compromise on Invisibility or you.

[Shoshin]

What's ur opinions on BBT?

Also got any town reads?

BBT is town. Yes, I have town reads.

[Shoshin]

You have to look at the intent behind it. What’s scummy about misreading something, realizing it, then moving on?

I'm looking at the "intent behind it," you're not. You're looking at what happened after the mistake. I'm talking about why the mistake happened in the first place.

To answer your question about what's alignment indicative, this is how I think about the game: town and scum are different by nature; town are uninformed, mafia are informed; town are looking for the scum to lynch them, the mafia know that the town are looking for the scum to lynch them and are trying to avoid getting caught. Any behavior that reveals this difference in perspective is alignment indicative.

Mumble's mistake is alignment indicative because it reveals an unconscious belief that Garuga was looking to lynch Mumble, and that belief makes sense only from a scum perspective in which Mumble knew that a townie (Garuga) was looking to lynch scum (Mumble).

[Shoshin]

I'd also compromise on Gustavo at this point. There's at least one scum in this group ganging up on me.

[Shoshin]

I'd also compromise on Gustavo at this point. There's at least one scum in this group ganging up on me.

Anytime you want to put your money where your mouth is, I’ll be here.

Do you understand the meaning of the word "compromise"?

[Shoshin]

Invisibility, do you have any townreads?

[Shoshin]

Joda, bacy, gustavo

Can you explain them?

[Shoshin]

because they've all been posting content that seems to be trying to further the town's progress

This is too general an explanation, I'd like specifics.

[Shoshin]

BBT, what're your thoughts on Gustavo? He's irritating me so I'm too biased at this point to read him, need another perspective.

[Shoshin]

From the moment we started talking about Mumble, you've been insulting me and making little attempt to understand what I'm saying - most of your responses talk around the points I'm making while calling me "dumb" or "delusional."

[Shoshin]

ok sorry I didn't realize you were so sensitive. I am used to playing with people who call each other way worse. I am sorry if I hurt your feelings.

You do realize you are pretty much all alone with your viewpoint right?

I don't see anybody taking your side or agreeing with you that mumble "scum slipped" because he misread something.

What

does

should that tell you?

This should tell you that you are wrong and should move on.

Your refusal to do that implies that if you are either stubborn town (hopefully you aren't offended by stubborn or else I am all out of words to describe how you are acting if you are town) or you are scum trying to pretend you are stubborn town.

I'm not "all alone" - a number of players haven't even weighed in on this yet, and others have expressed some form of agreement/understanding about what I'm saying (e.g. HF, Tex, BBT, etc.).

I'm stubborn because in the past I've been right when pushing a lynch that everyone else disagrees about. I've also been right in similar scenarios as this, where all the people who disagree with me are voting me. And I can point to numerous examples of that happening to lots of players in the history of mafia. So, no, I'm not going to "move on" just because others disagree, especially when most of the people who disagree are voting town (me). I'm instead going to keep trying to refine my reads, while also trying to reach some sort of understanding with the people who aren't in agreement - as far as I'm concerned, the problem isn't with what I'm saying, it's with the way I'm expressing it to you guys and I just need to find a different way to approach the issue.

[Shoshin]

From my perspective, this entire sequence of posts doesn't make any sense from a townie genuinely trying to understand what I'm saying:

The misunderstanding is the point... it's an unnatural reading of Garuga's language and reveals a scum perspective. Scum tend to think townies are after them even when they're not, and that's precisely the mindset that Mumble's misunderstanding exhibits. So it doesn't matter if Garuga clarified and Mumble changed his vote. The misunderstanding is the point.

That’s the dumbest thing I’ve read in a while. Mistakes happen. People misreading things happen. I almost always end up scum reading the people who scum read me and I do it as town. Your original point has been disproven and now spinning it to something else isn’t going to fly.

VOTE: shoshin

He calls me dumb and votes me. He also assumes mistakes can't be alignment indicative.

Why are you assuming that mistakes aren't indicative of alignment? Haven't you ever heard of something called a "scum slip"?

granted it's been a couple of years on this site, in general scum slips rarely happen.

I am actually not making the assumption that mistakes are alignment indicative. You are the one doing that.

The mistake is not alignment indicative, you want everyone to believe it is.

He doesn't answer my question and instead keeps saying mistakes can't be indicative of alignment.

I probably could when I get to a computer but does it really matter? It’s not alignment indicative

He keeps saying mistakes can't be indicative of alignment without actually addressing anything I said.

I can’t believe we are even discussing this at this point.

P.edit - it doesn’t matter though because it isn’t alignment indicative

He keeps saying mistakes can't be indicative of alignment without actually addressing anything I said.

Jar jar basically does it for me. I agree with that post. Now can we lynch shoshin?

He pushes my lynch because... he disagrees with me that mistakes can be alignment indicative... excellent reasons when I'm literally trying to engage him in a conversation about this point so that we can reach some sort of understanding and all he's doing is talking past me...

Nobody is explaining why this isn't alignment indicative... saying it's not doesn't help me...

I’d suggest playing some newbie games to learn the ins and outs of mafia.

To quote a fairly famous quote.

“To err is human”

He finally answers me... by insulting my play... and saying mistakes are "human," as if somehow that means they can't be alignment indicative...

If that doesn’t answer it nobody can.

More insults...

You have to look at the intent behind it. What’s scummy about misreading something, realizing it, then moving on?

I do that every time I make a mistake. I do it irl. I do it when I’m town and I do it as scum.

When I’m scum I dig deep and keep pushing the mistake even when everyone is telling me I’m wrong. I play stupid and keep pushing it.

So, now he's sort of agreeing with me that mistakes can be alignment indicative ("you have to look at the intent behind it"), but suggests I'm not doing that because I'm ignoring the fact that Mumble realized his mistake? Realizing you made a mistake doesn't tell you anything about why someone made the mistake in the first place (i.e. the intent behind it), which is what I'm trying to talk about with Gustavo (and what my next post specifically points out).

yeah you are either delusional or scum

More insults...

If shoshin was town he would compromise on his stance that misreading is AI

Back to saying that misreading can't be alignment indicative... and besides, why would compromise about that when nobody's made any attempt to actually explain why misreading something can't be alignment indicative...

This is why I'm irritated - it's impossible to have an actual conversation with Gustavo about an issue I obviously care about without him just insulting me and talking past everything I'm saying, so how the fuck am I supposed to not get frustrated and not let that affect my read on him?

This whole game is frustrating but this especially bugs me.

[Shoshin]

maybe we should move on because conversation is going nowhere

No, I want you to explain your townreads...

[Shoshin]

There's clearly scum in this group of Mumble/Invisibility/JJD/Gustavo, though obviously not all of them, so I dunno. I'd like to lynch within that group, it's just a matter of figuring out who the scum is.

[Shoshin]

To get others' perspective...

[Shoshin]

Gustavo, why are you voting me?

[Shoshin]

To get others' perspective...

I admitted I insulted you. Why do you need other people to agree I insulted you?

I was very clear about getting perspective to read your alignment, not to get people to agree you insulted me - I don't need people to agree about the obvious.

[Shoshin]

I'm stubborn because in the past I've been right when pushing a lynch that everyone else disagrees about.

Being stubborn in this game doesn’t work. If you are town you have to get other people to work with you. Stubbornness is the best way to push people away and not want to play with you anymore. Sometimes you have to scrap your original idea and go back to the drawing board.

I'm not going to stop pushing the people I think are scum just because others disagree. I'm willing to compromise on others, as I've said already, but that doesn't mean I'm going to scrap my strongest reads. If you disagree with my approach, then you disagree, get over it.

[Shoshin]

that the reason Shosh?

I've explained reasons to suspect Invisibility, you, and Mumble that has nothing to do with you guys voting me or disagreeing with me... Gustavo's suspect because I don't think he's interacting with me in good faith, but he might just be an asshole, hence why I'm actively looking for other perspective.

[Shoshin]

So like I said, there's nothing about that group of 4 people you named except for the fact that U scumread them?

I'm reading as scum, and I think it's likely that scum would jump on the wagon to lynch me.

[Shoshin]

Part of the reason I'm sticking on Mumble is because of how much defense he's receiving from people I suspect, and because of how difficult it is to get a wagon going on him.

[Shoshin]

I can't get a wagon going because the players in this game have a different way of thinking about the game than me and because a number of players have expressed a preference to lynch others (e.g. Invisibility). But that doesn't mean my analysis is bad. In a different group of players, Mumble would already be hanging.

Also, let me clarify something - I'm not saying one thing alone makes Mumble scum, I'm pointing out a number of different things that increase the likelihood that he's scum, including his interpretation of 311, among other things, and it's when you take all the points together that you get strong reasons to lynch him.

[Shoshin]

The irony of all the people voting me but calling me bad at this game is that they're all voting town... and it'll be especially ironic if Mumble flips scum...

[Shoshin]

In a different group of players, Mumble would already be hanging.

not on this site in a game outside of the newbie que. Experienced players know the difference between mistakes and scummy behaviour.

lol...

[Shoshin]

Gustavo, when did you start playing mafia and long have you been playing on this site?

[Shoshin]

Experienced players know the difference between mistakes and scummy behaviour.

For some reason, you are struggling to understand what I'm saying so I'll try again until you actually start representing what I'm saying correctly.

I'm NOT saying mistakes are scummy. I'm saying mistakes are like anything else, a behavior to be analyzed. Experienced players who have any semblance of skill would agree with me.

[Shoshin]

Gustavo, are you saying mistakes are NEVER scummy?

[Shoshin]

Experienced players know the difference between mistakes and scummy behaviour.

For some reason, you are struggling to understand what I'm saying so I'll try again until you actually start representing what I'm saying correctly.

I'm NOT saying mistakes are scummy. I'm saying mistakes are like anything else, a behavior to be analyzed. Experienced players who have any semblance of skill would agree with me.

Sure like anything else, mistakes should be analyzed. I've analyzed Mumbles "mistake" and think it it's not a BFD.

Yeah, I know you think that. I'm talking to Gustavo here, who keeps waffling on what he thinks and isn't actually clarifying anything about his thought process.

[Shoshin]

The irony of all the people voting me but calling me bad at this game is that they're all voting town... and it'll be especially ironic if Mumble flips scum...

This doesn't feel like somebody talking about a bunch of people that he believes is scum.

While I suspect the people voting me, it doesn't mean I'm 100% that they're all scum - and I've already said that I don't think all of them are scum. When you have a bunch of people calling you bad, it kinda feels shitty and you want to say something about it - but that doesn't mean you're suddenly townreading everyone who is calling you bad...

[Shoshin]

oh, you done fucked up now. I haven't waffled on anything. don't toss false accusations at me cause i'll own you.

Alright, own me. Go.

[Shoshin]

The misunderstanding is the point... it's an unnatural reading of Garuga's language and reveals a scum perspective. Scum tend to think townies are after them even when they're not, and that's precisely the mindset that Mumble's misunderstanding exhibits. So it doesn't matter if Garuga clarified and Mumble changed his vote. The misunderstanding is the point.

That’s the dumbest thing I’ve read in a while. Mistakes happen. People misreading things happen. I almost always end up scum reading the people who scum read me and I do it as town. Your original point has been disproven and now spinning it to something else isn’t going to fly.

VOTE: shoshin

Mistakes can't be alignment indicative? Or can they?

Why are you assuming that mistakes aren't indicative of alignment? Haven't you ever heard of something called a "scum slip"?

granted it's been a couple of years on this site, in general scum slips rarely happen.

I am actually not making the assumption that mistakes are alignment indicative. You are the one doing that.

The mistake is not alignment indicative, you want everyone to believe it is.

If scum slips happen, then mistakes can be alignment indicative, right?

I guess I worded my post wrong.

I am not making the assumption that mistakes aren't indicative of alignment, why are you making the assumption that they are?

looks and sounds better.

Okay?

Nobody is explaining why this isn't alignment indicative... saying it's not doesn't help me...

I’d suggest playing some newbie games to learn the ins and outs of mafia.

To quote a fairly famous quote.

“To err is human”

So mistakes can't be alignment indicative?

You have to look at the intent behind it. What’s scummy about misreading something, realizing it, then moving on?

I do that every time I make a mistake. I do it irl. I do it when I’m town and I do it as scum.

When I’m scum I dig deep and keep pushing the mistake even when everyone is telling me I’m wrong. I play stupid and keep pushing it.

Wait, nevermind. Mistakes can be alignment indicative ("have to look at the intent behind it").

In a different group of players, Mumble would already be hanging.

not on this site in a game outside of the newbie que. Experienced players know the difference between mistakes and scummy behaviour.

Oh, that didn't last long - we're back to saying mistakes can't be alignment indicative.

Which one is it?

[Shoshin]

Gustavo, are you saying mistakes are NEVER scummy?

And, of course, no answer to this...

[Shoshin]

Gustavo, what's your read on Invisibility?

[Shoshin]

Mumble, what's your read on Invisibility?

[Shoshin]

Gustavo, you said earlier that "you have to look at the intent behind it." What did you mean by that if no that mistakes can be alignment indicative depending on the underlying intent?

[Shoshin]

I'm waiting to be "owned." Guess that's not going to happen? All bark, no bite, lol...

[Shoshin]

In my town pool for now.

How strong town? And why?

[Shoshin]

75% confidence level. We have similar town reads and he is the counterwagon to you, who I think is scum.

You're 75% that he's town? That's basically random... What do you think of the reasons people have given for voting him? Do you think scum are voting him?

[Shoshin]

This isn’t a game of absolutes.

That's my point... You seem to be saying mistakes can't be alignment indicative (i.e. an absolute) and I'm saying that in some circumstances they can be (i.e. looking at specific circumstances on their own terms). So I want a straight answer:

can

they be alignment indicative or not? The non-absolute answer is yes, the absolute answer is no.

[Shoshin]

I actually like Mumble's reads on Tex and BBT. They're probably wrong, but they make sense given his internal logic.

[Shoshin]

Gustavo, if I'm town, who would you say is scum?

[Shoshin]

Shoshin push on me this game feels almost identical to Shoshin on Byron in Scientific mafia.

lol no, my scum play sucks... I wish I could play scum the way I'm playing in this game...

[Shoshin]

Gustavo, you said earlier that "you have to look at the intent behind it." What did you mean by that if no that mistakes can be alignment indicative depending on the underlying intent?

Meaning if somebody makes a mistake and gets called on it, it they don’t admit their mistake and back off, their intent is scummy. It actually means it wasn’t a mistake after all.

Sort of like your “mistake”

Then why isn't the ultimate scum strategy to just always admit a mistake? "Oh, you suspect me? It's because I made a mistake, I'm sorry about that, I retract what I said earlier as that was just based on a mistake." Flawless defense every time, huh?

[Shoshin]

I'm inclined to vote Gustavo at this point but I can't tell if he's having a bad game or if he's scum, so I'll let others weigh in on that.

[Shoshin]

This isn’t a game of absolutes.

That's my point... You seem to be saying mistakes can't be alignment indicative (i.e. an absolute) and I'm saying that in some circumstances they can be (i.e. looking at specific circumstances on their own terms). So I want a straight answer:

can

they be alignment indicative or not? The non-absolute answer is yes, the absolute answer is no.

Ever heard of Occam’s razor? You are going against the most likely scenario.

You didn't answer my question...

[Shoshin]

Gustavo, what's your read on Invisibility?

Town

Why?

[Shoshin]

You say you have but I don’t remember seeing it nor is it what you are pushing. So your push looks like scum looking for an easy target and digging in when people aren’t listening.

Maybe you should read the game, then.

[Shoshin]

Gustavo, what's your read on Invisibility?

Town

Why?

Cause my top scum read scum reads him.

VOTE: Gustavo

There's no way a townie is so confident I'll flip scum that Gustavo bases an entire read on a major wagon (Invisibility) on a surface-level observation that I've scumread the guy, while ignoring Invisibility's actual behaviors. I'd lynch Gustavo on this basis alone.

I think we're looking at a Gustavo/Invisibility/Mumble team, with Gustavo most likely to flip scum.

[Shoshin]

Like, I've got doubts about my scum reads - enough doubt that I'd never base a read on a major wagon on a weak association with a scum read. And someone as "experienced" as Gustavo should know better. If I'm too biased about this, it'd be nice to have my townreads weigh in.

[Shoshin]

Shoshin, I'd like to have the chance to talk to you in real time whenever you're around.

Got a couple of questions.

Yeah, I'm here. I usually have time during the day, not later at night.

[Shoshin]

@ Shoshin...wrt 643, this seems a little hypocritcal considering the insults you have been dishing out towards me. A little "what goes around" bothering you?

You're right, my wording on you was harsher than I meant it to be, I'm sorry about that. But there's a difference between what I was doing and what Gus was doing - I didn't mean to insult you, I was trying to explain my thought process on why I was lightly town reading you despite what I perceived as bad play (your top scum reads were town, after all). I assumed your play would be better since you joined the site in 2009, but after skimming some of your games, I decided to hold you to a lower standard - that's what I was trying to get across, but you're right that my wording was harsher than it needed to be, and for that, I'm sorry. Gustavo's insults pissed me off because they had nothing to do with reading me, they were personal (e.g. calling me dumb and voting me in the same post), and it was also his overall approach to our interaction of continuing to talk past me while insulting me instead of actually trying to come to an understanding.

[Shoshin]

Alright, so first question.

Did anyone visit you last night?

I have no clue. If they did, I don't know.

[Shoshin]

BBT, if something happened at night where I was supposed to know who visited me and I don't, it's outside my control. I received no information about any visits.

[Shoshin]

I'm not flipping scum. This is fucked if I get lynched today because of some night interaction that mafia fucked with.

[Shoshin]

BBT, you realize that whatever happened at night could have been fucked with by mafia? It's terrible basis for any read. You should be using night actions to corroborate what you already believe, not to completely change a read from strong town to scum. The only thing that's 100% certain and reliable is behaviors.

[Shoshin]

Why would I know who visited me?

[Shoshin]

BBT, you need to reevaluate the way you're using night actions. What's been itching at you?

[Shoshin]

What the fuck? I wasn't told anything. Someone visited you, BBT, and probably gave you information that nobody else has...

[Shoshin]

BBT, where'd your information come from?

[Shoshin]

I'd say that a red BBT = red Invisibility

Anyone out there disagree w/ this?

I disagree unless Mumble is also scum, because otherwise BBT could have stuck on Mumble with me instead of going for Invisibility.

[Shoshin]

I'd say that a red BBT = red Invisibility

Anyone out there disagree w/ this?

I disagree unless Mumble is also scum, because otherwise BBT could have stuck on Mumble with me instead of going for Invisibility.

Not sure this is making sense to me. Why would BBT need to go for someone else at all ?

If Invisibility was town, why not just stick w the mislych?

Yeah, exactly. If BBT is scum, it damns both Invisibility and Mumble. The same logic you're using re: BBT moving off Invisibility applies to BBT moving off Mumble.

I don't think BBT is scum, but if he is, it still means I'm right about Mumble/Invisibility.

[Shoshin]

BBT spent most of D1 casting shade on Mumble. Then he starts D2 with this:

I'm more than happy to lynch Mumble or Invisibility. I don't really have a preference either way.

VOTE: Mumble

But then he moves off Mumble to vote Invisibility as pressure starts building on me from HF, Invisibility, and Mumble:

VOTE: Invisibility

I'm not sure I'm 100% happy with Shoshin's response to my question, expected something somewhat different.

If BBT's scum, why not stick on Mumble where he's got my support?

[Shoshin]

BBT's got the idea.

[Shoshin]

BBT's probably town. Yes, it's plausible that BBT is partnered with Invisibility/Mumble but either way we should be lynching Invisibility/Mumble first.

[Shoshin]

BBT, what's "niggling" you?

[Shoshin]

JJD, I don't get why you've been after BBT all day. Can you explain that?

[Shoshin]

Well, I didn't receive any fruit. So you were role blocked or redirected or who knows?

[Shoshin]

And yeah, if I had received a fruit and saw that post I would have responded differently so I get why you worry...

[Shoshin]

Redirected? Bus drove? Role blocked? Who knows? If scum is Invisibility, JJD, or Mumble, you and I were prime targets for scum because of our suspicions on D1.

[Shoshin]

Either way, you shouldn't ever rely on what happens at night. I use roles as corroboration for behaviors, but never against.

[Shoshin]

Either way, you shouldn't ever rely on what happens at night. I use roles as corroboration for behaviors, but never against.

You should usually rely on a probable guilty.

Mafia is a game of probabilities, no?

A guilty result increases probability that someone is scum, but it's also an incredibly unreliable piece of evidence because you just don't know what happened at night. So I always use it as corroboration, never against behaviors. I've been in games where someone comes out with a guilty on my strongest town read, and I defended the fuck out of her, and she was in fact town, NK'd the next night because my defense was so strong. So, yeah, can't trust roles unless it corroborates behaviors.

[Shoshin]

I can't explain what happened at night, so I'm not even going to try. All I know is I didn't receive a fruit and I'm town as fuck.

[Shoshin]

BBT getting roleblocked makes a lot of sense with an Invisibility/Mumble team.

[Shoshin]

I hope Invisibility flips role blocker.

[Shoshin]

Why would scum with a RB roleblock an unknown slot versus a known PR?

The obvious reason is because they were killing the known PR.

[Shoshin]

So you're saying you believe this is possible?

BlueBloodedToffee

,

Invisibility

,

Mumble

Shoshin. You've danced around the question enough. Is this possible?

Possible, yes. Anything is possible. It's extremely unlikely. In any situation where BBT is scum, Invisibility/Mumble are almost certainly his partners.

[Shoshin]

Especially since Garuga was not very trusted at all.

I strongly read him as town, as did others after his claim, and he was pushing Invisibility with me... very good reasons for scum to want him dead...

[Shoshin]

When scum have a roleblocker and know there's a PR, they could roleblock the PR or they could kill the PR. I don't see why Mumble's ruling out the latter option.

[Shoshin]

Probability.

As I said, it's Mafia 101 with a RB to neutralize a PR and PR hunt elsewhere. I already said that. You are intentionally ignoring me.

It makes no sense to roleblock an unknown slot when you have a known slot. Do you disagree with that? If so, what is the benefit to doing so?

Just because you say something is "mafia 101" doesn't mean it is or that it's the likely choices mafia made in this game.

It makes sense to roleblock an unknown slot when you kill the known slot, which is what the mafia did. Why are you ignoring the fact that mafia killed Garuga?