Not Known 15's Setup: Power Analysis*
Key:
Overpowered = 17+
Very Strong = 14
Strong = 10
Moderately Strong = 7
Moderate = 5
Moderately Weak = 3
Weak = 2
Negligible = 0
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Basic Setup
: 15 Town v. 4 Mafia = -26.
This is fairly typical ratio. The guide points are that 7-2 requires one moderately strong pr, 10-3 requires two to three moderately strong prs, so 15-4 should require about the equivalent of two to three strong prs.
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8x VT = 8 * 0.02 = +0.16 : Having more VTs and town players in generally has a slight effect in allowing more mislynches.
1x Town N9 Bulletproof N9 Vigilante = +1 : This ability, while powerful, requires lasting so late in the game that the role's value is pretty negligible.
1x Loyal Ninja 1-Shot Fruit Vendor = +3 : Loyal is a huge plus. Being a fruit vendor is also a plus. Being 1-shot is a huge minus. And ninja practically defeats the purpose of the role by making it impossible for the fruit vendor to prove their claim if they get tracked. So, no, this isn't really a strong role. Oh I see, you want the claim to be proven AFTER death? Yeah, no, that's too risky/swingy and doesn't heavily increase the power factor.
1x Disloyal Ninja Babysitter = +5 : I don't see how this is really useful??? It can't be tracked --> How are you supposed to be able to tell if your action succeeded or not? Best case scenario is that it acts like a 1-shot vigilante of sorts, but even then, the role isn't that strong. Actually, removing disloyal from this makes this quite stronger due to the existence of an IC.
1x Town JOAT (Commuter, Cop, Disloyal Vigilante) = +7 : Okay, this is a pretty strong role. The major caveat though is that you only get two investigative shots, which really isn't that much in a game that seems to lack a vigilante.
2x Town Multitasking JOAT (Bodyguard, Jailkeeper, Motion Detector, Roleblocker, Tracker, Voyeur) = 2 * (0.5 + 6 + 0.5 + 4 + 3 + 1) / 6 - 2 + 0.5 = +3.5 : The role itself isn't all that weak. It's fairly strong, or at least some aspects are. The issue lies in that you have
two
three of them in the game. Town will lynch at least one of the claims, and most likely a town one the first time. Since the odds of there being 3 town duplicates of such a bizarre role like this, town will likely lynch within this group a seccond time. That could go poorly for town.
1x Town Innocent Child = +4 : This is actually a pretty good role, but it is hampered by auto-reveal at game start. Making it activated increases power, but may weaken the babysitter if disloyal is removed.
1x Mafia Goon = 1 * -0.02 = -0.02
1x Mafia Informed = -4.5 : This is actually some pretty valuable information for mafia.
1x Mafia Multitasking JOAT (Bodyguard/Jailkeeper/Motion Detector/Roleblocker/Tracker/Voyeur) = -(0 + 7 + 0.2 + 7 + 4 + 0.2) / 6 + 1 - 0.8 = -2.86 : This is stronger than the town variant actually, but we still have the multiclaim issue, but this is partially prepared for by having an informed member. Multitasking is also stronger here due to factional kill. Overall, while long-run, this role is fairly weak, it is actually really strong when it's needed.
1x Mafia (1-Shot Ninja) Motion Detector = -2 : The motion detector part isn't really great. They'll probably save the ninja shot for when they need it and ignore the motion detector part until then. Ninja though really isn't useful in this setup.
Town Power: 0.16 + 1 + 3 + 5 + 7 + 3.5 + 4 = 23.66
Scum Power: -0.02 - 4.5 - 2.86 - 2 = -9.38
Setup Power: -26
Adjustment Factor: +1.5
Total: -10.22
* - Note that all the values used here are somewhat arbitrary.
So, no, I don't really consider this setup all that close to balance. Town has like only one solid role, and a few moderate roles that are hampered by play shenigans. Meanwhile, scum obviously have way too much power and the motion detector ought to go for starters.
I'll pass the setup if all the following happen:
1. Disloyal OR Ninja is removed from the Babysitter. Both increase the babysitter's utility.
2. Ninja is removed from the town fruit vendor. It's just better off without it, and it leads to simpler gameplay.
3. The Fruit Vendor gains another shot.
4. You either drop or replace the N9 vigilante N9 bulletproof. It's too swingy and seems like a gimmick too be honest. Any power role or VT would probably do here, just something less gimicky and more practical.
5. You replace the mafia motion detector with a goon. Mafia doesn't need the extra power.
Further suggestions that are not binding:
1. You give the fruit vendor two more rather than one more shot.
2. You replace the second town multitasking JOAT with something else, preferably less complicated but not necessarily powerless.
I would like to point out mafia absolutely does not need a counter to everything, and you can't just cripple town with a bunch of weak roles and expect them to do fine.