Micro 831: Great Idea Mafia (Game Over)

[davesaz]

Howdy all! Looks like the catch up will be fast.

[davesaz]

Done reading.
Shortaru town
Tazaro scum vibes
Micc weak town
Gamma claim is towny but it's a fakeable towny.
Don't really have an opinion on anyone else.
Too few overall posts for any of these to be very strong reads other than shortaru.

VOTE: Tazaro

[davesaz]

Oi what makes ya think my claim towny? And why are ya suspecting Tazaro?

The way you claimed it and the way you've reacted to people who were down on neg util. I'm not sure though because another scenario fits almost as well.

Tazaro is being pre-emptively defensive.

[davesaz]

Could someone explain ta me what the hell is goin’ on here?

I kind of wanted to say something to that effect, but I didn't want to be accused of saying nothing again.

but now I might be...

Kinda early in the game to be concerned about being accused of saying nothing.

[davesaz]

If you're town who do you think is insincere on your wagon?

[davesaz]

I'd like to see some reads developed and stated before massclaim. With such a broad range of roles to choose from, almost any claim could be fake. It's too easy to let scum get by with a believable claim. And too easy to WIFOM a trueclaimed role away. In fact while writing this I'm starting to lean toward massclaim being a bad idea, because it only adds noise and gives scum targets given the situation.

Just a FYI on activity, I'm facilitating a 2-day workshop starting tomorrow. Not that this game has a lot of activity to begin with...

[davesaz]

im surprised there havent been more responses from some of you (cough MICC) to my post.

It's almost as though a number of you skimmed/didn't read it

I don't have much more to say than what I said in 125. I'm sorry you think my page 1 RVS vote was opportunistic or that my comment was any more serious then general ribbing about the unfortunate circumstances of potentially having multiple negative utility roles. I'm sorry that you didn't like the shitty case I pushed to help move the game out of RSV. I'm sorry that I got confused as fuck the discussion of day vigs because I was posting at work while barely reading the predits. I'm sorry that you decided to go to bed before reading my explanation or chose to ignore it. I'm sorry that you think my name being green makes me any different than anyone else.

Giving the post numbers and not linking or quoting them isn't helping.
Not sure what more Maruchan wants after this.

[davesaz]

Confirm I received a fruit.

[davesaz]

Changed my mind about how to handle this, because it doesn't look like anyone will ask.

fruit vendor here. I gave davesaz a fruit

Please describe your approach to choosing a target.

[davesaz]

I'm leaning toward KittenLicks reaction to the lynch being a possible partner.
I have to get up early in the morning and can't do much except run the workshop all day, so hoping to see some discussion on this by the time I'm back.

[davesaz]

Perfect segue into what are your reads?

[davesaz]

Town lover. Looks like nothing confirmable in the game. Maru is my highest suspect atm.

[davesaz]

Wow, has it really been 24 hours since a post?
I know I'm part of the problem. I'm barely awake rn.

[davesaz]

I'm leaning toward KittenLicks reaction to the lynch being a possible partner.
I have to get up early in the morning and can't do much except run the workshop all day, so hoping to see some discussion on this by the time I'm back.

I had this thought briefly but KittenLicks being unsure of supersaint mechanics lead me away from it. If your partner is a supersaint you probably look that up before he’s claiming in the game thread and it would be an impressively wierd thing to fake. Similarly investigating the universal Miller is not an interaction that I think a scum player thinks of. I’m leaning pretty strongly towards town on KittenLicks right now.

Might a scum player fake that as a way to appear not scum? Or be worried about a watcher so claim a plausible visit?

[davesaz]

I think Simeon is making a really good point here. If you go into night thinking "I need to find a werewolf, if there is one" your first choice really shouldn't be "the people that just lynched a werewolf".

I also agree with this point, and I'm not sure what was seen after this point to mitigate it.

Town is probably weak in this game, with two somewhat believable claimed neg utils. In any case, scum should hunt for scum with their nightkill in this setup (if you don't believe me, look at old runs and check the strategy of winning scum teams)

Bob's claim kind of checks out, given he said this on Day 1. Not to mention, we're all worrying about if we should lynch someone or not today, and I think it'd be a little suicidal as scum to say "Hey I'm a Tree stump" in that atmosphere. What if we just decide to try to force him to stump himself? Bob is either Town, or has the bravery of a lion. A very negative utility lion.

How would we force him to stump himself exactly?

People I don't want to lynch today:
Bob
Simeon

Are the points in the two posts I quoted your sole reason for TR's on them, or do you have something else?

I don't think I have a preference in the remaining 3. I don't like the night logic by Maru, but... given Maru's general lack of effort in this game I don't know if I'm willing to point to that as scummy. I

can

see Maru just picking someone at random, as a town seer.

Have you seen town roles that have a night action being this apathetic before?

[davesaz]

I’m torn between just hammering and grilling people over the easy votes.
There doesn’t seem to be much chance this is going to suddenly become a high posting game.
I’m going with my gut on maru. I don’t see the fire that has been there in previous games.
VOTE: Maruchan

[davesaz]

Micc should have something more to say.
Bob what’s your take on how to use your role?

[davesaz]

I was hoping for him to elaborate on the effects stumping has on town strategy at this point.

[davesaz]

That’s just crazy.

Pedit was just getting to it lol

[davesaz]

@MOD: Hypothetically if there were a treestump would stumping reset the deadline?

This is something we have to know. If the answer is no then we could get into lylo with no time left.

Micc target is horrible! Either alternative is better.
Simeon can be scum and fruit vendor but not sk.
Bob claim could be fake, and there is a scum stump.
My claim could be fake and there is a scum lover card.
I can’t imagine an experienced player making that targeting mistake.
OTOH why would an experienced player admit to it?
Wifom?

Town stump can turn mylo into lylo and continue to speak to help town so Bob’s answer is slightly fishy too.

[davesaz]

From my point of view, there are only risks: the last scum may be a 1-shot dayvig or 1-shot unlynchable.

Dave, what about this doesn't make sense to you?

Yes those are risks. What I felt was missing was the complete analysis. Is there a win% benefit with the risks taken into account, or is it net negative regardless?
Is there a benefit to no-lynch here? I see an obvious downside that we could have alien+some faction and it's really LYLO, but other than that?
<Two factions with more than one NK each doesn't seem likely for the obvious reason that there haven't been 2 kills, but alien holding out to shoot groupscum and win is a possibility>

[davesaz]

If I am not in danger of being lynched, what should be the upsides of stumping from my point of view?

I already said what I think. I'm not sure it's an upside -- it might be a downside or it might not matter at all. My issue is that you didn't say anything either way regarding the outcomes (yes you mentioned risks but that's not the same), which makes me think you aren't thinking about the possible outcomes, which could mean you already know...

Right now my top scum candidate is Micc. He should have targeted me as top priority, especially if he thinks I'm scum.

[davesaz]

@MOD: Can a player with a kill and another night action perform both the same night?

[davesaz]

Hmm, I was kinda hoping the answer on multiple actions would be no. Though yes was the expected answer TBH.
That means nobody is mechanically clear.
I could climb up on a pedestal and say I'm actually trying to solve and so I should be obv, but y'all

should

see that anyway.
Micc is a little sketch for trying to use my votes as evidence. VCA is pretty useless in a setup that's more likely to be MB than not.

[davesaz]

You ignored my attempts to engage regarding kittenlicks during day 2

Umm, I'm fairly certain we had a conversation. You may not have been satisfied with it, and it's true that I didn't reply back to your last post on the subject, but I don't think it's fair to refer to it as not engaging. I also asked KittenLicks some things, and was satisfied with the answers. The point of that whole sequence was to challenge what seemed to be townreads both from and to her which were too easy.

I have the same problem with your night actions, in particular N2, as I had generally with Maru. I feel like a town role would know 100% what they should do with it. Or at least not do something 100% wrong. Especially after you had pointed out to KittenLicks that Simeon's role was 50/50 town or mafia -- if your role is what you claimed, it's hard to believe that you could point out the percentages to someone else and then forget them within a couple RL days (going by memory on that). There are plausible reasons you might have ignored the percentages and made that same play anyway, but you don't raise them as a defense.

It's pretty weak. Everything this game is weak. Dinner is ready so I need to stop typing.

[davesaz]

Bob’s claim is totally NAI. There are two alignments with that role, and he could just as easily have something completely different. The way he was saying multi ball from the start always struck me as weird. It’s the type of thing that is true but why is it worthy of discussion? When questioned about use of the role he falls back to a more survivalist approach which is ok on a personal level but less than stellar from a town POV.

[davesaz]

I would have sworn I saw two, but you're right there is only one. The 2nd mention is a role that makes treestumps.
Probably saw it in the context of a greater/est idea where it could be composed from two cards...

I posed this as a question: Is town better off in a 2v1 with a stumped advisor, or a 3v1 where we don't have anyone confirmed? In the 3v1, all 3 town need to agree on who is scum, or we no-lynch and scum get to choose whom to remove for the LYLO. In a 2(+1) v1 we get a classic LYLO with an added voice. Numbers wise stumping "seems" better.

I would not be willing to play the stump

if that helps the discussion at all. It doesn't suit me at all -- I'd probably give losing advice. Or at least I'd be worried it's losing.
I don't expect

anyone

to

like

the idea. But I expected there to be open and frank discussion on its merits. I might be wrong, and if that's the case I expected a more open response on why I'm wrong.

[davesaz]

The point about claiming the role being NAI is also valid. If claiming it makes town unwilling to lynch that player until it's too late, it's a potential winning strategy for scum.

[davesaz]

I don't TR any of you. Might as well put it on the table.

[davesaz]

Micc, saying that I'm not engaging you is a lie. You may not like the answers I'm giving, but we are having conversations. I'm the type of person who stops talking when I don't see anything new to add, maybe that bothers you? If you're "not satisfied" you could be a little more open about what you're not satisfied with.
This is not the point in the game where an OMGUS is acceptable. Pushing you on bad night actions is a sign of town, not scum.

But I don't want to put words in your mouth. Can you honestly say that you look at my posts and you don't think I'm solving? If you go beyond being wrong on a few things (and several/most of us have been wrong on something), point to something that's illogical or manipulative. Please do. And if you can't, please admit you can't.

Have you bothered to look at Simeon's ISO? I'm wondering if you see any original thought there. I looked before writing this post to see if my memory was right, and it's about 75% one liners. I can tell that you don't like my approach of testing whether people are genuine by asking them if they see what I see. Fine, I can show first, in another post.

Persivul seems much more town than Bob did.

[davesaz]

One-liner percentage might be off a bit. I'll do this in batches of posts which have "content".

Didnt read the past 10 posts but mic is being opportunistic on page 2

How do ya even skip 10 measly posts?

Because it was nearly 1am and I was in bed and falling asleep and had to be up at 5 am for work. Will read when I have time

Oh cool. You read page 2, determine there that he was being opportunistic, ignore the rest, and then post.

This looks bad tbh

Page 3 nitpicking, and I'm generally against the practice of ignoring RL issues.

Tazaro has been dull so far. It feels like he's just posting to look town.

Like his posts are mostly comments and don't really stick to anything.

This does express a read, but remember the setup has high multiball probability so at this point in the game scum!anyone would be hunting. Notice though, it's stated very vaguely.

UNVOTE: Maruchan

@Maruchan what do you think of Micc's post 69?

VOTE: Tazaro

X, what do you think of Y, vote Z is a pattern that seems more scum than town to me. Additionally, it's an unvote without a stated reason. I'd need to look at context to see if there is an unstated one.

BTW, lest you try to claim anything about why I'm active now -- I'm not prepping food / running all over town / doing door buster shopping today.

[davesaz]

Tazaro has been dull so far. It feels like he's just posting to look town.

Like his posts are mostly comments and don't really stick to anything.

I am a one liner kind of guy; and this is like a preemptive criticism^ of me before switching off from who U were briefly "sticking" to before (maruchan) and then sticking to me for who knows what length of stint.
Stint away, but make good cases justifying Urself before you end up switching off and on.

Terrible post.

You do understand that Maruchan posted before i switched my vote to you?

I'm not voting you because you're a one liner kind of guy, I'm voting you because your one liners don't really look like they were made to help you sort who's town or who's scum. It look like they were made just to say something.

This one's kinda towny but it isn't material that is hard to fake. Plus the target is rather low hanging fruit, it isn't like anyone had to work especially hard for that scumread.

If you help me lynch him now and he flips red, I don't have to wonder if you're bussing.

Do you think I'm scum?

I have not done a meta dive, but I have noticed a lot of scum in general like to ask who is scumreading them. The post itself isn't game advancing.

gamma purposefully talking in riddles is also rather annoying.

I think Gamma's posts have been clear so far tbh

Information, no analysis. (I had the exact same thought, but don't remember thinking it was worth a post. If I did post I would expect I said it's NAI. I don't feel like opening another tab to check lol)

@Kitten no thoughts on me?

Again, scum ask this way more than town IMO.

Finally

@shortaru there is now support for the Tazaro wagon lols. Will you join?

Kinda manipulative, yet leaving it vague, not pressing a case at all.

[davesaz]

because day 1 was a bucket full of null, and I needed a name, and the only person I felt had done anything of note was Micc pushing a policy on a role, so i investigated him

wtf. Shouldn't you have checked the ones not on the Tazaro wagon? since Tazaro flipped wolf?

Multi ball. Wagon analysis is useless this game buddy

Really? Multi ball doesn't mean you always wagon your partner, right?

multi ball means there might not BE any partners. We could have 3 1 man scum teams.

mafia/werewolf/replecant/alien/serial killer/cult.

How would knowing who lynched the werewolf matter if there is only one werewolf and there is also an alien and a mafia? by VCA reasoning the alien and the mafia could appear perfectly towny, and lynch the werewolf with the town, thinking he was town.

VCA is useless in great/er/est/grand idea

You're confusing the issue. You say you are a SEER. It's supposed to be your job then to look for another werewolf.

Other alignments don't matter right now let's ignore them for a bit.

It is true that town have no ideas on the scumteams, town could possibly be against a one man werewolf team and other non town-aligned roles, but your role as a seer is to look for another werewolf.

so I'm asking why did you investigate the guy who voted out the werewolf yesterday?

This is a good point, and it was a major contributing factor to my (incorrect) Maru scumread.
Picking on an obvious blunder isn't AI. Town and competing scum both have an interest in eliminating someone whose claim doesn't check out.

Spoiler: for micc

Yes I'm aware that that last sentence applies to me picking on your NA blunder.

[davesaz]

Kind of agree with Micc tbh. I badly want to vote somewhere else but Maru is the only one pinging me bad

VOTE: Maru

The timing of this vote

may

be important. Simeon made a very good case for Maru scum, then may have waited to see if someone else would vote there first. I don't see any evidence of Simeon scumreading anyone else, other than perhaps Micc. If he badly wanted to vote somewhere else, it almost has to be Micc he wanted to vote for. Why wouldn't town pursue that if they're getting cold feet on the presumptive lynch for the day? Scum might want to avoid annoying their MYLO/LYLO target prematurely.

[davesaz]

Maruchan: Micc, Bicephalous Bob, Simeon, davesaz (4)

On my previous site we had the "3rd on the wagon" tell. I don't actually agree with that being accurate, but the guy who tried to make a strong case waited to vote it until the vote created a L-1.

[davesaz]

Summary:

Micc posting is rather OMGUS'y but otherwise towny. The night action choice was mechanicallly unsound. I am susceptible to incorrectly townreading pushy scum, and very susceptible to OMGUSing. If his issue with me is a perception of lack of effort, he isn't taking RL into account, though to be honest I don't remember if I have reported all my RL interruptions in this game.

My primary reason for not townreading Bob was an apparent unwillingness to go into deeper analysis of whether using the role improves town's chances, makes the chances worse, or nets out to nothing. Of the remaining original players I remember Bob's posts the least. There is a WIFOM element here -- people say scum wouldn't fakeclaim Treestump because they might be forced into proving it -- but in a MB game with singleton factions, claiming a role where the prevailing site meta is scum wouldn't fake it is a good strategy. I owe the slot a re-read -- maybe I'm just not remembering enough about the posts. Oh, just remembered, Bob advocated scum should scumhunt given it's MB, and I remember thinking that seemed like an informed viewpoint. Gotta review that specifically.

Simeon slot I just went through a bunch of posts. We should most definitely not write the slot off as a town FV. If Micc investigated there because the slot looked scummy, maybe there's something to it. On looking through the ISO there is nothing there that is unambiguously town motivated, and a lot that could be mafia motivated.

[davesaz]

We're back to the same place deadline wise. Someone wanna talk?

[davesaz]

That's progress. You're most likely town because if you were scum it would not matter to you if you mislynched me or someone else.
The point was to find someone who made at least one clearly town decision. If you're eliminated the decision becomes easy for me.

Now we have Persivul/Bob or Bulbazoor/Simeon. I've already made my case.

VOTE: Bulbazoor

It's probably still going to be a no-lynch. I almost hope I'm the NK just to rub the flip in your face.

[davesaz]

Who is town, and why?

[davesaz]

The time has come to leave the tunnel.

Who is town and why?

[davesaz]

I was the last person, claiming lover.
Thinking about compiling a list of "scum don't do x ever" statements to use those tactics when I'm scum. People are so closed minded here.
Simeon had me fooled too.
You'll gamethrow in LYLO. Replacing out is tempting but I don't know if that would be considered a tactical replace for town to do it to reset someone's read process.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Bulbazoor

[davesaz]

go ahead and throw it now

[davesaz]

Still town here.

[davesaz]

You managed to do enough that looked town motivated, like not switching to my preferred Lynch.
Were you worried that one of them was another scum faction?

[davesaz]

What the fuck Dave
Did it not occur to think on the nk

Micc was all in on reading me as scum. Leaving town micc alive with me was the obvious move for any scum to make. I honestly thought I was voting scum and would still be lynched by the other town.