micro 833: a coalition (D O N E)

[Irrelephant11]

am town
who's town, riase your hands

[Irrelephant11]

HEAL: Irrelephant, northsidegal

[Irrelephant11]

it just occurred to me who you may be
and if i'm right you're just town here i'm pretty sure

if i'm not than this post is

irrelevant

talkin bout me?

this doens't feel like a game where we'll get the coalition right

hmmmm

May as well say it: I am an invisibility alt

*not* who i was going to guess even remotely
so you replaced yourself huh

ok i need to think about you again

this made me lol

HEAL: skitter, unless nsg or tw ask me not to

[Irrelephant11]

hi! I wasn't gonna play coalition twice, but I just like schadd and the playerlist so much and it would be really great to win this setup with the coalition twice

[Irrelephant11]

HURT: anyone I didn't heal on the last page

[Irrelephant11]

Hi dva!
skitter, dva, is the worst-slot town?

[Irrelephant11]

Heal because

if not i dont' have a solid read on you really; i'm *slightly* tending town but i'm having trouble telling whether or not that's stemming from thinking you make sense

tw because I'm familiar with how familiar he is with you and I wanted {skitter + 2 people} involved in deciding whether or not I heal skitter, so at least one townie has to be involved

[Irrelephant11]

wait so probs a robot was tw the whole time?

[Irrelephant11]

imo skitter/tw are only ever scum together
nm say wagonomics a few more times and I'll think about it

[Irrelephant11]

brb lol'ing at the flavor

[Irrelephant11]

someone talk to me about dark wanderer

[Irrelephant11]

the wrost being the robot makes him almost definitely town
HEAL: the worst

lol @me healing all the people I know well

[Irrelephant11]

imo skitter/tw are only ever scum together

mm maybe I take this back

[Irrelephant11]

dva, skitter, why don't you townread each other?

[Irrelephant11]

okay keep me updated
why are you healing gamma?
why are you voting me?

[Irrelephant11]

Heal because

if not i dont' have a solid read on you really; i'm *slightly* tending town but i'm having trouble telling whether or not that's stemming from thinking you make sense

tw because I'm familiar with how familiar he is with you and I wanted {skitter + 2 people} involved in deciding whether or not I heal skitter, so at least one townie has to be involved

yeah i was wondering because it didn't seem like you're townreading tw at the present time, but wanting me + 2 people makes sense

tw = robot

how do you feel about my reason for healing you

[Irrelephant11]

oh lollll I am voting you huh
UNVOTE:

[Irrelephant11]

oh good a wild gamma appeared! I might actually sort the whole playerlist in one sitting at this rate

[Irrelephant11]

p-edit makes sense coming from you given what you think about my blindspots in my townplay, but not a particularly good reason to heal me; def think i can fake that imo
i think you healed me a little too easily imo

right answer, I think
I was expecting "makes sense" + probably pushback on the weakness of the read, but without me having to ask for it
eh your response here is still the right answer, you just don't get as many points because I had to ask for it
I actually read/skimmed a lot of your ISO before doing much else. I thought moments like your early nsg heal, your "townread dependent on your identity" with the robot + "robot holding onto the gimmick is towny" (not the strongest reasoning but you said something similar last coalition game), and your self-consciousness about making a coalition that was maybe-overly-dependent-on-activity-as-a-townread were all good reasons to townread you
I didn't like 826, but nothing else pinged me (keeping in mind I was only reading like every third post fully, skimming two, etc)

[Irrelephant11]

hi! I wasn't gonna play coalition twice, but I just like schadd and the playerlist so much and it would be really great to win this setup with the coalition twice

Hmmmm

So I’m thinking Irrel’s “oh winning through coalition twice would be fun” is a little bit extravagant and LAMIST
I’m aware I said something to the same effect but mine wasn’t as unprompted as his as DVa asked my alignment

good thing I wrote other posts huh

[Irrelephant11]

can the scumteam be yuriko+not_mafia

[Irrelephant11]

we've played together lots of times, including the last iteration of this setup (where we won together by being in the coalition together)
It felt like a good place to start

[Irrelephant11]

can the scumteam be yuriko+not_mafia

Seems optimistic but not impossible

it's how the last run went! We all PoE'd down to two lurky scum, got paranoid about it for a bit ("scum would be towntelling all over the place, not sitting on their hands!") and then it was still just them

[Irrelephant11]

I wonder if, counter to the paranoid-sort-of-intuition this setup breeds, scum are actually just as scummy in this setup as in any other setup

[Irrelephant11]

I will feel good about having that thought if it's yuriko+NM
in the meantime I guess I shouldn't settle for those reads and call it a solve yet

[Irrelephant11]

Heal because

if not i dont' have a solid read on you really; i'm *slightly* tending town but i'm having trouble telling whether or not that's stemming from thinking you make sense

oh and the reason this is a good reason to townread skitter is because in a recent game we lost together (to scum!nsg) I pointed out postgame that skitter couldn't catch scum!nsg because nsg was being logical and making sense, even though the "making sense" was more indicative of nsg's scum agenda than of her being town

skitter being self-reflective about "oh no am I doing that thing irrelephant pointed out?" in a game I'm not in (no incentive to callback to our previous conversation for my sake) is towny

[Irrelephant11]

I think yuriko healing tesxx on like page 2 was partner-indicative, btw, I'm not just pulling yuriko+nm out of nowhere or just based on activity

[Irrelephant11]

right the timing was relevant
I just checked and our conversation & you saying it here were less than a week apart

[Irrelephant11]

I think the probabilities for dva & gamma's alignments rn are t/t --> s/t --------> s/s -----> t/s
skitter, agree/disagree?

[Irrelephant11]

wow I'm halfway through and would be very happy if it were just right (I have no complaints with it so far)


@skitter why is dva/gamma mutual townread a reason to say one of them should be scum?
Er, reverse that question, because I don't mean to put words in your mouth. Why isn't dva/gamma mutual townread enough reason to say they're more likely t/t?

[Irrelephant11]

well I'm reading up on early game and dva/gamma/skitter were at {dva + gamma mutual townread}, {skitter skeptical} on like page 5 or so and I'm surprised none of that has changed in 30+ pages, and given Gamma's unpopularity as a coalition choice at the moment I repped in, I don't think they're both scum trying to get the other townread (one of them could have gotten more towncred by dropping that read on the other by now, plus it's not ideal for scum to have both scum in the coalition anyway), and I'd also think the Gamma!read would have wavered if Dva were town and Gamma were scum (given Dva's pretty good at solving based on the newbie we played together)

does that make snese

[Irrelephant11]

HEAL: the worst

[Irrelephant11]

everyone heal the worst

[Irrelephant11]

845 comes from scum 0/1,000,000 times

[Irrelephant11]

I'd also think the Gamma!read would have wavered if Dva were town and Gamma were scum (given Dva's pretty good at solving based on the newbie we played together)

this might read as an insult to Gamma's ability to read Dva but I don't mean it that way
I have no clue how good dva might be as scum, so idk how reasonable it is to expect town!gamma to scumread scum!dva

[Irrelephant11]

I don't think she *has* to waver on Gamma, but I believe her read *probably would* if he were scum and she were town, or she'd at least be less confident when I ask about it
I could be wrong but that's the premise I'm basing my read on for now
I definitely don't think they're s/s the more I think about it

In the world where one of them is pocketing the other it's probably Dva pocketing Gamma, based on their very early interactions (dva heals gamma, gamma then literally heals dva *because* dva healed gamma)

[Irrelephant11]

I think dva and gamma's postcounts (3rd and 4th, after tw and skitter) are both town-indicative for them
HEAL: gamma

pedit: am I sure about what, tw?
...........................................the post, dva. The whole post. Have you read it

[Irrelephant11]

.....maybe dva is scum and gamma is the townie she's trying to pocket/is TMI'ing (Gamma is often lynchbait in my experience, despite his energy to play and being fairly readable over time, and maybe I should actually expect Dva to have more paranoia as town)

[Irrelephant11]

I've read 80% of yuriko and tex by reading the first 7 pages, yes?
I've been reading Gamma's ISO alongside reacting to new posts

[Irrelephant11]

I'm eager to feel "caught up" so I don't feel far behind later - that's a very demotivating feeling for me

[Irrelephant11]

I skimmed nsg, read/skimmed skitter, read the first five pages, and now have page 8 + gamma ISO + robot ISO open in separate tabs

is there a point to this line of questioning
I read them as s/s independently, when I saw yuriko heal tes early on

[Irrelephant11]

I didn't have anyone in our newbie game I felt I could sort with such confidence
I've misread tw a few times but lately I'm getting more accurate I think, and 845 is very very very town-him

I glanced at the game, no memory of a read on raya, I'll check on the answer to that

[Irrelephant11]

So by page 8 TDW and nsg were the only ones who had healed me, with tw saying it's "a good heal"

[Irrelephant11]

and also on page 8 you said all three of them were good people to put in your townblock
I'm not sure what or who I'm supposed to be looking for here tbh

[Irrelephant11]

I would like dva and skitter to townread each other, I think

[Irrelephant11]

I would like them each to take a step back, realize their reasons for scumreading each other are poor, and townread each other
and then if that fails to happen, things will get interesting
I don't think it will fail to happen, though

[Irrelephant11]

Honestly I feel good enough about tw + skitter + gamma + nsg + tdw (based solely on how the other four are reading them, I haven't read tdw in isolation yet, though I've seen a bit of their early stuff which was good) that I could go for that five without me, and I almost feel good enough about dva to put them in for tdw and not need to read tdw at all
If I'm wrong on one of the first four it's probably skitter

this is all my "I won the last coalition" overconfidence talking but that's where I'm at

[Irrelephant11]

now to figure out which of those five are least likely to approve that set of five, insert myself in their spot, and rush the coalition

what's the deadline btw

[Irrelephant11]

oh right it's dependent on yuriko rep
that's sorta nice

[Irrelephant11]

@irrel your slot already had a bit of coalition, incidentally the three names you added were already on it

.

Spoiler: sorry i dont have theme images very stocked up

Vote count 1.a

lynch:

Not_Mafia (3):

Gamma Emerald, DVa, skitter30

the worst (2):

YurikoJasmine, Not_Mafia

DVa (1):

Irrelephant11

not voting (3):

The Dark Wanderer, northsidegal, the worst

coalition:

• The Dark Wanderer
  : The Dark Wanderer, skitter30, northsidegal, DVa, Irrelephant11
  
• the worst
  : northsidegal, The Dark Wanderer, Irrelephant11, skitter30, DVa

• skitter30
  : skitter30, The Dark Wanderer, northsidegal, Irrelephant11, the worst

• Irrelephant11
  : skitter30, The Dark Wanderer, northsidegal, Irrelephant11
  
• Gamma Emerald
  : The Dark Wanderer, northsidegal, Gamma Emerald, YurikoJasmine
  
• DVa
  : The Dark Wanderer, DVa, Gamma Emerald, northsidegal
  
• northsidegal
  : northsidegal, Irrelephant11, the worst
  
• YurikoJasmine
  : YurikoJasmine, The Dark Wanderer, Not_Mafia
  
• Not_Mafia
  : none proposed

with 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. day 1 will probably end

mod notes

• continuing to replace yurikojasmine . .
  
• skitter is VLA on fridays and saturdays
  
• micro 833: a coalition

[/area]

Interestingly I think I'm happy with both of the fully formed coalitions here

[Irrelephant11]

which is also to say I've really convinced myself of a yuriko+tes/nm team

Well actually that's not true I'm very strongly townreading nsg & tw, and I think skitter and gamma are almost always town here. skitter, dva, and tdw are my highest priorities when I come back tomorrow

If everyone could ISO those three (especially the first two) and share their results that would be very nice

pedit: yeah this probably is indeed town!gamma

[Irrelephant11]

I think I like TDW complaining about me not townreading him? maybe?
I'll be itt more in a bit

[Irrelephant11]

no I will not be; got busy when I wanted to be itt
skitter's wagon is the new popular one? Hmmm
Also nsg what do you want me to do regarding skitter? Just like, keep reading & sorting her or?

[Irrelephant11]

tending towards you/dva right now tho

Do you have a summary case on dva anywhere
if not can you make one please

[Irrelephant11]

I guess I could honestly just heal tdw because literally *no one* objects
idk why I don't feel like reading the ISO I just don't

15 minutes after writing the above and HURT: me
HEAL: the dark wanderer[/hurt]
TDW you should not be scumreading the worst

[Irrelephant11]

HEAL: the dark wanderer[/hurt]

lol

HEAL: the dark wanderer

[Irrelephant11]

okay
okay
okay.

HEAL: the dark wanderer

[Irrelephant11]

not really no
tdw is as towny as everyone says he is and I could spend my time being paranoid about the consensus status of the read (unhelpful, likely to get me scumread, and probably just incorrect) or I can just accept that he's town and put him in my coalition
as a replace in I am likely to get a lot of unwarranted suspicion if I am in the coalition and it fails. Anyway, I feel good about a lot of reads at this point, presumably better than most players feel about me, so I don't feel the need to be in the coalition unless my townreads request it.

dva vs skitter honestly feels like tvt but if only one is town it's skitter imo, so that's where I'm at.

[Irrelephant11]

so much of your posts continue to feel like they are not made in good faith

literally just the two of you disliking each other's *way of responding*


dva is there anyone in this coalition you're worried about besides skitter:
skitter
northsidegal
the worst
the dark wanderer

[Irrelephant11]

gamma

[Irrelephant11]

HURT: skitter
HEAL: me
how about this then

[Irrelephant11]

honestly the way skitter and dva have gone at it for so long really makes me feel like it's tvt, too
does scum aim to make enemies in this setup ever?

[Irrelephant11]

k
HURT: me
HEAL: skitter

[Irrelephant11]

do we *have* to wait for a replacement to do the coalition? is that a rule, consensus thought, or neither?

[Irrelephant11]

skitter30: skitter30, The Dark Wanderer, northsidegal, Irrelephant11, the worst

is this where I'm at?
I don't remember
oh no I have Gamma in the coalition instead of me
I really do still think Gamma is town. He's on like nobody's coalition and isn't working to get on them

But I can do that switch if that's more popular

[Irrelephant11]

actually wait i think i'm just going to wait until irrelephant solidifies his reads and then maybe go with skitter's current coalition

HURT: gamma

still think gamma is more likely town than not but in terms of the data i'm looking at he's not as locktown as i would prefer and so i might just BoP irrel on skitter while already townreading everyone else in the coalition

oh I get it now you wanted me to scumread skitter
My gut does indeed want {me, you, the worst, tdw, gamma} but I'm not really scumreading skitter in isolation, no
I agree that if we go with skitter's coalition, she should maybe be the lynch

[Irrelephant11]

HURT: skitter

[Irrelephant11]

I got post 1111 which makes me happy

[Irrelephant11]

Gamma, what is your preferred coalition? Do you have one?

[Irrelephant11]

lolllll
so who's that? you + dva + skitter + tdw + ?

[Irrelephant11]

HEAL: TDW

idk why I read this as dva and then when I looked at it again read it as tdw

[Irrelephant11]

I think your reasons for not townreading me are silly, but keep doing your thing I guess

Let's pretend Nibbui really has "proved" he's not scum with NM (he sorta has, but not totally). Do we just think NM is scum anyway? Actually, regardless, if we all think [at least one of Nibbui/NM] is scum, the other has been playing alone. skitter and dva suddenly gain scum equity in my mind. Maybe TDW too? idk why I townread "I have to be in the coalition" more on tdw than the other two. If it's NM with someone doing somewhat well, it might explain NM not... trying.......

If we're in the bizarre world where nibbui/nm are both town, I'm not sure how possible it is that we make a coalition with 5 town tbh

Can skitter/dva arguments ever be svs?

[Irrelephant11]

Can skitter/dva arguments ever be svs?

to further this thought, it might be a good scum strategy to argue endlessly while otherwise seeming towny. It makes it easy to get one in/one out, and the scumreads on each other won't look as forced as other scumreads might (because they actually believe it)?
Not sure I believe it's what's happening, but interested in feedback thank u

[Irrelephant11]

wait we won
nice

[Irrelephant11]

tbh I didn't do all that much interesting sorting fmpov, I just towned it up to help town win by including me