Well, JK+6 vs. 2 is balanced to slightly townsided (53.3% win rate in Matrix6, for example; being Closed should reduce town winrate but not by much). This setup's clearly very similar to it, so we need to assess the balance impact of the differences:
a) Scum know that one specific player is a VT. They could use this to aim their kills more accurately. On N1, assuming a VT is lynched D1, that gives a ~3.3% increase in the chance of hitting the JK, but also a ~3.3% increase in the chance of hitting the Commuter. This clearly helps scum if the Commuter isn't active; the effects if the Commuter is active are more mixed, and might even hurt scum.
b) Scum can claim their actual role (thus allowing them to dodge any potential rolecop issues; there aren't any in this setup but they don't know that). Informed is normally a bad fakeclaim as scum but it could be viable at massclaim time (as long as you make the information up, e.g. roll a dice to see who you claim you know is town), and could be viable if you believe you're just about to be lynched. An all-VT scumteam could also do pretty much the same thing, though, so this is likely to have only a minimal balance impact. (Choosing good fakeclaims is normally a skill issue, and the aid this gives the scum in choosing fakeclaims is pretty minor compared to the range of fakeclaims you see from skilled players without any additional innformation.)
c) Town's ability to commute increases the chance of two missed nightkills, which would heavily favour town by buying them an additional day. (A single missed nightkill doesn't give town any real advantage, as it's normally correct to no-lynch in mylo.) On N1, there are three potential ways for the kill to be stopped (JK/scum target the same person, JK hits scum performing the kill, scum hit commuter) with probabilities ⅛, ⅛, ⅙. On N2, the commuter is unlikely to commute (they're more likely to do that on N1 instead), so the JK, if they're still alive, will have two ⅙ chances to stop the kill. That comes out to around a 36% chance of an N1 no-death, and a 30% chance of an N2 no-death, if the JK survives until N2. In the original setup, these chances were 23% and 30%. This means that the commuter gives town an extra 4% or so chance to gain a mislynch, in the case where the JK survives until at least N2 (which is around a 3 in 4 chance, so 3% total). I'd expect this to lead to an EV adjustment of 1-2% in town's favour.
d) The commuter may cause false-positive Jailkeeper guilties. I'd expect town to be able to work out the situation at massclaim time, so this likely won't have much of an effect other than making power role hunting easier for the scum (slightly counteracting their advantage from the Informed player, as those overlap).
e) A fairly big one if you have the right playerlist: this setup is highly internally consistent and close to a well-known setup, meaning that if the Informed scum claims as Informed, town are likely to be able to judge the commuter as town based on their claim. (Non-consecutive commuter is also a fairly rare role; presence of a rare role in a setup, when it's consistent with the rest of the setup, is decently helpful to town's setup speculation and often confirms the holder's alignment.) How much of an effect this has depends on the playerlist; as an approximation, I'd rank it as comparable to the advantage of playing a variable-open rather than closed setup (as in both cases you have an obvious potential setup but also other possibilities).
All in all, I'd rate this as a bit more townsided than the old Newbie subsetup, probably in the 55%-60% town win range. That's clearly runnable (especially as towns tend to do worse than predicted, so we should probably be aiming to make setups which we believe are slightly townsided in order to get an actual 50% town win rate).
If you wanted to lower the town win rate a bit, the most obvious way would be to add a bit of confusion to the setup without radically changing the way it plays. For example, you could make one of the VTs into a Miller; that would add extra uncertainty as to how the setup works, helping to reduce the town's advantage from setup speculation. (This is, as long as the playerlist doesn't believe that Miller claims are confirmed town; they
shouldn't
, but the meta is weird sometimes.) Alternatively, making one of the VTs Ascetic would be a way to (probably) reduce town win rate a bit while keeping the setup more internally consistent (if the Ascetic claims, the JK won't target them, so it might help town, but scum might well kill them anyway,
especially
if there's been a missed kill already).
