Merchant's Daughter [Endgame]

[Krazy]

Good morning everyone

Spoiler:

You can do this Krazy... you can do this...

[Krazy]

First dance will end if there are 12 players or fewer left alive or deadline is reached.

So I'm just rereading the ruleset

uh, do we just do nothing first dance?

Sorry I was about to vomit out some setup stuff that hinged around how much I hate the coins and then I realized simply not lynching anyone was an option.

Or alternatively,

@FakeGod, is No Lynch an option for first dance?

[Krazy]

Okay that's interesting to think of.

[Krazy]

So basically there are two ways to play this setup.

I think *both are viable*... and we maybe should think about it a little bit

Strategy 1: We commit to a tentative grouping of 6 locktown players to endgame

Problem with Strategy 1: Scum will, on average, I believe have 6-7 coins toward the end of dance one. But they can have more.

So the really annoying scenario that might have made me really angry in the past is {what if this game gets really stupid}

The game gets really stupid if we spend all of pre-dance hammering down our top 6 townreads, and then it's clear what the lynch order is

So we have at the end of dance 1 7 pairs:
Town pair 1
Town pair 2
Town pair 3
{knows they will get lynched pair A}
{knows they will get lynched pair B}
{knows they will get lynched pair C}
{knows they will get lynched pair D}

Which means that *if* (and again, this is actually a statistically uncommon scenario) there are two scum men in "ABCD" and their combined coin count is over 8 (which is barely a statistical blip -- if there are two scum men it is not at all unlikely their combined count is over 8) which would mean if they wanted to they could actually lynch Town Pair 1, kill Town pair 2 at night, and then throw the IC on one of the two scum men that scumclaimed, thus rendering the IC useless and creating massive wifom about the remaining pairings. That might even be game winning at that point if no scum had been lynched at that point.

I am NOT saying this is a likely scenario. But I did, at some point in the past, start getting *very focused* on this particular scenario and I think we might want to think very briefly about how we want to actually play out this game

[Krazy]

Basically what this comes down to is:
A) I don't actually think we should attempt to solve the game at all in Pre-dance
B) In Dance 1, we should just immediately no lynch

Instead, I think in pre-dance, we should all just pair with people we would like to solve the game with in dance 2. We should not necessarily pair with people we are locktown on, but rather on people we would enjoy sorting in a PT and enjoy solving with if we are still alive in dance 2

[Krazy]

So basically I think we just go into this thinking go into Dance 2 with 14 players, an IC, and treat it like a mountainous from there

[Krazy]

Instead, I think in pre-dance, we should all just pair with people we would like to solve the game with in dance 2. We should not necessarily pair with people we are locktown on, but rather on people we would enjoy sorting in a PT and enjoy solving with if we are still alive in dance 2

If anyone strongly disagrees with this I'd like to hear it because otherwise I would like to offer a dance (rl) today

[Krazy]

We Pre-Dance until one of two scenarios:
1) We end deadline.
2) Everyone has a pair; much to one person's expense based on numbers.

Then we go to First Dance, and then it's like Hunger Games Lovers-Version until we're at 12 people, and it's a nightless so we don't transition until multiple pairs are gone.

Right this is what it *seems like it should be* but this means creating a risk, which may only be like a 20% or lower risk, that the game gets exceptionally stupid

Basically I think overall town chances are stronger if we skip dance 1 and just totally throw the coins mechanic out the window because it exclusively helps scum

[Krazy]

To add to what Taly said, pairs should probably be decided near end of the pre-dance so we have the most info when making them. ...or we just pick a date we think is cute.

I know this seems intuitive, and if *that is how you want to pair* then I think you should pair that way.

What I'm discussing right now is whether *everyone* should be holding off on dances until late pre-dance because *town needs to solidify top 6 pairings*

If we are strongly in favor of "strategy 1" then no one should dance until late pre-dance

But if we are going for "strategy 2" then people who want to pair fast can pair fast and people who want to pair slow can pair slow

[Krazy]

This is the pre-dance. There’s no lynching until the first dance. My, I have so much to teach you. <3

I know, Nancy, but the way we plan to play Dance 1 largely determines how we believe pairings should be formed in Pre-Dance

[Krazy]

I mean ladies know how many coins they have yea? Can we just pair town read gents with high coin ladies, or am I missing something?

This is another strategy but it presents all the same risks of strategy 1, which is if we are wrong on some reads Dance 1 risks getting really, really stupid

I guess partly I just want to make it so there is less scum motivation in scum claiming and speed lynching town

But you may be partly right. I might need to think about this. But I think this is why we basically just have to no lynch. Otherwise if we mislynch once, and scum have 8+ combined coins, the game gets really stupid really fast.

I don't know if you noticed this yet but I really don't like the coins since they risk making pre-dance pointless and/or risks turning apparently optimal d1 play for town into a disaster.

But you maybe right--maybe we want the ladies with coins 5-8 to all hardclaim, and actually just pair in order of townreads there?

Otherwise if we have 2 scum gentlemen that, combined, have 8+ coins, dance 1 is just awful for town

[Krazy]

I think that's worth adding to the pool actually.

Scenario 1 (Potentially bad -- I was wrong in advocating it last time) -- Ignore coins, just figure out the top 6 townreads, lock them, let everyone else dance wherever

Scenario 2 (Probably OK) -- Ignore coins, keep the lynch order unclear, no lynch dance 1, plan to play the game as a mountainous in second dance

Scenario 3 (Maybe better?) -- Ladies with 5+ coins hardclaim coin counts, and we pair the top 4 townread men with them

If we are going with scenario 3 we do need to ask people to not yolo pair

But if we're going with scenario 2 yolo pairings are fine

So thoughts there would be good

[Krazy]

what do you mean by "throw the coins mechanic out the window"?

I was saying we should plan on literally everyone in the town hammering No lynch literally as soon as Dance 1 begins and to see anything else as a scumclaim.

[Krazy]

Scenario 2 (Probably OK) -- Ignore coins, keep the lynch order unclear, no lynch dance 1, plan to play the game as a mountainous in second dance

Scenario 3 (Maybe better?) -- Ladies with 5+ coins hardclaim coin counts, and we pair the top 4 townread men with them

actually parts of these aren't exclusive

I think we could pair top 4 townread men with top 4 coin ladies, and then we STILL hammer no lynch as soon as dance 1 begins

Dance 1 is just the worst phase for town and we want out of it ASAP

[Krazy]

However, given that a mountainous in dance 2 can be really exhausting for town, I do think there is merit in going with at least some of the logic of scenario 2 -- have the top 4 coin ladies choose a man they townread that they can enjoy solving with or enjoy sorting rather than having it be over-determined by group consensus

[Krazy]

So basically, top 4 coin ladies still get to pick their partners. *town does not pick for them*, but *town can by consensus reject a pairing*?

That is, top 4 ladies just have 1 extra step.

1. Dude offers
2. If Lady likes the dude, Lady asks, "who all scumreads this guy?"
3. If it's less than half the town, she accepts. She only rejects if more than half the town rejects the pairing

whereas the other 4 ladies are just like
1. Dude offers
2. Lady decides

something like that?

[Krazy]

Or alternatively,

@FakeGod, is No Lynch an option for first dance?

Yes.

@Taly

[Krazy]

I'm still in the mindset that if we're going with scenario 2 it's actually better strategically to not give reads in pre-dance, although I'm slightly gravitating toward scenario 3 the more I think about it, partly since it would make pre-dance more informative. But also possibly more frustrating. I think there's actually an appeal in this setup to just having a fun pre-dance where people really just pair off personality, especially if we're planning on a long second dance

So if I'm focusing a lot on setup spec rather than reads right now, it's because *one scenario in setup spec means we don't even talk about reads* which I know sounds really counter-intuitive and maybe dumb.

[Krazy]

But if we decide on no lynch, does it matter? *confused*

I mean the coin factor.

I think maybe we decide on who the scummiest gent is, so he doesn’t even make it to the first dance.

It *could* matter.

If there are two scum gentlemen and they have 15 coins they could just lynch three pairings of their choice if town could not hammer no lynch fast enough.

As I said, Dance 1 *can* be exceptionally stupid, even if I don't know scum would play like that. I'm just saying, *there is a scenario* where dance 1 is incredibly dumb and I almost want to get to dance 2 before I even 'really try' frankly because otherwise there's a chance we spend days arguing over pairings and then scum just sweep because they somehow ended up with lots of coins.

It's important to me that if I am going to put a lot of thought into people's alignments that I feel pretty strongly scum can't just nuke my entire townblock because they have the voting power of 10-17 people

[Krazy]

It's important to me that if I am going to put a lot of thought into people's alignments that I feel pretty strongly scum can't just nuke my entire townblock

maybe some of you can figure out just how important this it to me lol

[Krazy]

Why should we not form reads in pre-dance? I want everyone’s opinions on my choice of possible suitors, to minimise the chance I accept scum.

Yeah, maybe I'm pushing scenario 2 to an illogical extreme

For scenario 2, we just don't want the 'lynch order' of the town to be super obvious to scum. There should not be a scum motivation in using coins to try to lynch members of the towncore during dance 1.

That probably does not mean we can't give reads, so actually feel free giving reads

[Krazy]

I'm not following that scum have as much power as you say they do in the first dance, even considering worst possible scenario coin totals. Won't the orchestration of a lynch on a pair that's been universally agreed to be town essentially reveal the entire scum team?

See the problem here is that FakeGod has not established timers between each lynch in Dance 1. People can leave the dance, FakeGod gives a flip, and the game continues.

So if Dance 1 took {more than a day}, scum could ask FakeGod a mod question, then just try to sweep before their partners had a chance to leave the dance and stop them.

Basically I am trying to avoid:
Scumreadgent1 and scumreadgent2: "Hey who all is on right now? Also, @mod could we get a vote count"
Mod: "Vote count"
*no other responses*
Scumreadgent 1 and scumread gent 2: *lynches 3 town pairs*

Does that actually happen? I don't know. But I think there's merit in making sure that two scumread men do not have more than 10 combined coins if possible.

[Krazy]

Which is also why I just want to hammer no lynch for dance 1 and just not even deal with that phase of the game at all

[Krazy]

Like I don't want to spend lots of time thinking about all the ways scum can juke or ruin town dance 1 when we can just skip it entirely, which I think is how we want to play it

[Krazy]

During the intermission, Mafia may secretly force one of the dance pairs to leave. Mafia also picks another player, whose alignment will be made public at the beginning of the Second dance. Second dance will then begin, and continue until the game's end.

Town gets an IC at start of second dance

[Krazy]

i think a group consenus should be made for pairs, but i dont think forcing someone to pair with another person they scumread is wise

I fundamentally oppose asking any high coin lady to dance with someone she scumreads

I'm saying town should have veto power, not that town should decide the matches beyond that

[Krazy]

pedit: wait, can't they only lynch 2 pairs? Because the day ends once the player count reaches 12

right, lynch 2 pairs then kill the third

[Krazy]

Krazy why didn’t you think about this the first run of the game?

I was through about the first paragraph, hit p-edit, and Slaxx was saying I was scum for about the 12th time that day.

At which point I realized:
a) I needed to do a complete 180 on the strategy I was proposing
b) I needed to deal with someone I townread deathtunneling me
c) There were already pairings with ladies whose coin count was unknown and which we could not walk back

and then I deleted that paragraph and wrote a different thing instead that maybe you can guess

[Krazy]

Hi Ank!

[Krazy]

Still eating lunch and finishing up some laundry. I have a few responses to Gamma and Ank's concerns which I can go into later, but one thought did strike me I thought I'd drop out--if we lynch scum in pre-dance (with the one gent forced out), then we can play out first dance regularly.

[Krazy]

Two fish are in a tank

one says to the other: "Do you know how to drive this thing?"

the other says: "YOU CAN TALK?!"

[Krazy]

I care less this round than last round because I already felt we had the game in a good spot and now i'm frustrated we have to start over. It feels like we did all that work for nothing and i don't wanna waste my time again.

didn't the mod say it was still a tossup?

[Krazy]

Here's the problem with the strategy of NL for first dance: while we get an IC, scum also gets a NK before we lynch anyone. This means we would potentially lose two strong townreads before they have much of a chance to read the game. By having at least one lynch D1 we get their updated reads following the flip before they die. I think the second lynch D1 is partially unnecessary, but we definitely want to lynch at least one.

Thus, I approve of the strategy of wealth ladies claiming and only accepting offers from gentlemen who are widely townread. A claim actually doesn't help scum at all with their NK, because by the time they get a kill, coins don't matter anymore anyway.

Also thinking here about Gamma and Ank's comments:

This is true but bear in mind that in other versions of the game, such as in Halloweens' Ball, the entire lynch order was decided in pre-dance. The vast majority of decision making in this game will take place within a span of 8 days. The question we partly need to decide is when, if ever, we firmly commit to a lynch priority order.

Building on my little note from earlier, there are two scenarios at the start of day 1:
The first gent flips red -- In this scenario, we can just play on. The risk of scum forcing a lynch and scum claiming is significantly lower now.

The first gent flips green -- Do we hammer no lynch? Your argument is true, that a townread pair will die. This happens no matter what.

The way things are going, that pair will have made their reads in pre-dance probably. I think scenario 2, where people keep mum until second dance, just isn't going to fly with this crowd. That's fine.

Ank makes the point that scum might kill strong town players. I can expand more on that in a bit, but a strong player being dead isn't devastating for town if town is willing to seriously consider that player's reads. Additionally, we can consider mitigating this, but pairing strong players with nulls or scumleans to mitigate losing two strong players to a single kill.

You do make another compelling point, though, which is that we might want town to update reads after the flip of the first gentleman. I don't think most people's reads lists will tend to dramatically change after a single flip unless, of course, we flip scum, though--and in that case, we can play dance 1 to full length anyway.

Doing more laundry now, back later

[Krazy]

Additionally, we can consider mitigating this, but pairing strong players with nulls or scumleans to mitigate losing two strong players to a single kill.

btw I'm not hard advocating this right now, I'm just saying that "we need to do something to protect strong players from the nightkill" doesn't mean we need to rework the entire plan here necessarily

[Krazy]

It's very rare that people have influence after they die on this site

read the end of Halloween ball

[Krazy]

yeah I’m still of the opinion that coins don’t matter

This was my inclination on how to play in the first dance, and I do think that there's at least a 25% chance or so that they don't matter (i.e., if there's 2 scum ladies and 1 scum gent, and the 1 scum gent ends up with fewer than 8 coins, coins don't matter).

The question for me is how much we play around worst case scenarios (2 scum gents who combined have 8 or more coins and who are likely to be lynched) -- and partly the reason I get so hung up on this is that "2 scum gents who combined have 8 or more coins and are likely to be lynched" is relatively likely if town is ignoring coins and just playing like halloweens ball. So coins might not matter, I would prefer if coins didn't matter, but I think it is dangerous to just totally ignore them and play as though they don't exist

[Krazy]

Good morning how are YOU? I'm DR. WORM!!

ANKAMOUSE YIU SHOULD KNOW IM NOT A REAL DOCTOR

Also KRAZY is SMART..we should make ladies with BIG COINS dance with the NICE GUY'S

Also KRAZY is SMART..we should make ladies with BIG COINS dance with the NICE GUY'S

this is starting to get obnoxious extremely quickly

I AM SO SORRY AKIASAE!! I don't want to obnoxious you I am just trying to get BETTER at mafia but I CAN HANDLE CRITICISM. So let me know if you think I'm getting better!!

this is just kinda interesting to me because:
162 is a greeting
165 is a response to Ank from the previous page
167 is a response from what I was saying 2 previous pages (so he was more or less keeping up with the thread)
174 is a response to what someone just wrote

So Worm is actually doing a decent job of keeping up with the thread and can also respond to people on the fly. I'm just observing that although he is clearly having fun with his gimmick he strikes me as competent at mafia

@Worm, I'm assuming you've played from off-site? How much experience do you have off-site?

[Krazy]

Are you all forgetting that RC is in this game and that scum would take an opportunity to remove him ASAP if they could?

So I should take a little time to explain why this is not a huge concern to me so you know where I'm coming from.

I have, personally, had a wildly ranging mix of experiences with RC. My first game with him was a disaster. My first game as scum against him, keeping him alive was basically my only wincon. My second game as town with him was simply frustrating because everyone started sheeping his reads after he died and I didn't feel like the game was being played anymore so I replaced out.

After that, I played with him on a hidden alt and had two very positive experiences with him, one where we solved the game together, and another where he failed to catch me as scum. On the whole, I know that I can have a good time with RC, although when we have played on my main, things have tended to be pretty rocky. I don't know if that's just bad hangovers from my first game or what.

So I am aware RC can have very strong, good games. But in my personal experience over the last year, his reads have been good but I don't see the need to freak out over his slot in particular. He's a strong, competent player, but not necessarily the one I would say is easiest to townread or the slot that I would assume would be the nightkill, given that when I was scum against him, I never tried to nightkill him and never really considered it. He can have really good games or really bad games just like anyone else. I like the energy he brings to the table and I'd like us to be friends even though we've had some rough experiences in the past and I might have shittalked him pretty badly one game shortly after that first disastrous game.

Also, as an aside, I don't think it's healthy to make a weird meta for RC before he even enters the game and I don't really want to discuss him more before he has a chance to post.

[Krazy]

I agree that high coin ladies should claim since I did it last game

But I vehemently deny that skipping first dance is a good idea in any stretch

This is fair, the question then simply is how long do we want dance 1 to be, because that is tied to how risky dance 1 is for town in my mind. Like we could treat Dance 1 like a Blitz Phase and just give it like 12 hours and then resolve it one way or the other before all of the town goes to sleep. idk we can keep talking about it

-- and I'm sorry to everyone for focusing on mechanics so much this early but it does really matter to me in terms of how we approach the pre-dance

[Krazy]

when it should be blatantly obvious he will be the kill

Having modded games with RC, I do know that some scumteams will prioritize RC as an early kill, so your concern is reasonable, but I wouldn't go so far as to say he is a "blatantly obvious" kill particularly when we don't know whether he will choose to obvtown or who he will be paired with

[Krazy]

Reminder that deadline doesn't reset off a lynch in Dance 2
So with that plan we'd have 8 days to sort 14 players

I wanna say this level of attentiveness from Gamma is pretty strongly town indicative although I do tend to be pretty bad at reading her before day 3, historically speaking

[Krazy]

If we do this let the wealthy ones pick first for wider selection.

I agree that refraining from pairing until we've settled the top 4 wealthiest women/top 4 town guys would probably be preferable

[Krazy]

Well I disagree my posting is wooden

I think the setup discussion was necessary to have and get out of the way early. I disagree everyone else is advancing discussion, in fact there’s been a lot of redundant posts/discussion along the lines of what you’re criticizing me for. I’ll explain what I mean when I get home

I'm just going to say that my read of Dann is going to be heavily skewed by an ongoing game where I'm on a stealth alt so I'm just going to vaguely mutter 'probably town' unconvincingly and let the rest of you deal with his slot for a bit

[Krazy]

I thought this game was about catching scum, not talking about mechanics. Can someone make a tl;dr of the discussion and continue the game? 'Cause I'm not good at reading people talking about mechanics. I think Krazy is town tho since, from what I read, his proposal was really pro town

Yeah I apologize again I'm going to try to kill mechanical discussion after this real life day. It sounds like majority is on board with 5+ coin women claiming

although that claim doesn't even have to be today, we could let people just sort of do their thing for a day or two, but we probably want the 8 coin lady to claim in like the next two days I think

something like that, idk

[Krazy]

These are the gentlemen I will accept a dance from:
RadiantCowbells
Vedith
Krazy

Everyone else, sorry but I am not interested.

what would you say the chances are that you lol leave the dance at a random point this game? higher or lower than 50%? or does it depend on how you read your partner?

[Krazy]

Why not Taly? He seemed pretty damned townie to me?

How much experience do you have with Taly beyond Starcraft btw?

[Krazy]

I’m mindmelding with most of your reads here, especially Fire and Gamma. I feel pretty good about Alisae and Taly as well. I think I can sort Krazy, so I’m hoping he asks me.

Hmm, but if I can strongly townread you without a PT, wouldn't it be better for me to be in a PT with someone who I can try to sort and would therefore be more important for solving?

'not all eggs in one basket' was my thought here

that being said, I certainly would love to be in a PT with you if only for fun so in terms of maintaining wim in dance 2, it might be worth considering

[Krazy]

im going back and forth between whats optimal strategy

and it seems to be more of a distraction at this point

yeah I think the main thing people agreed on was ladies with coins *claiming eventually*

not necessarily yet, we can let people try to form some reads before they know who has how many coins

but before we form all pairings, or before too many pairings are formed, we have the 4 rich women claim and then sort them first, if there haven't been too many yolodances

[Krazy]

i feel like the point ank brought up about scum getting an NK without anyone of them getting lynched is a good one, but i want krazy to follow-up on her thoughts on that, and say something beyond setup mechanics

yeah this setup is deceptively complicated which is why I replaced out last time when I realized I was basically wrong about everything for the first day or two, because *some things might matter not at all* but *could matter a lot* and some of that has to deal with the RNG of whether scum have 2 gents or 1 gent (or 0 or 3 etc.). Dance 1 could be totally fine and played like any other phase if scum have three ladies -- but we don't know that, and I get pretty frustrated pushing a strategy around worst case scenarios which might be totally pointless if RNG swung all the scum on ladies

basically this setup has the potential to have a lot of wasted effort, but that's fine it's like a quasi-blitz given it can only last 26 days tops

[Krazy]

Ank, was there any benefit that you saw in claiming coin value in your previous game of this?

I think was absolutely right that the 8-coin lady probably realizes she needs to claim regardless of what the rest of the town decides

I think realizing how important it is for 5-7 coin ladies to claim is not quite as obvious at a first glance of the setup

[Krazy]

what are the chances of that happening though? scum can always pair with each other if it seems one of them will be forced out

While the coins might actually make a slightly higher incentive for a scum/scum pairing if a scum lady rolled high on coins, I think in general scum try to avoid scum/scum pairings unless doing so would make them look likely to be a top pairing

[Krazy]

krazy i liked you better last game. You were mixing in reads with your setup spec. this game has just been setup spec and i need some reads from you

last game I felt like I had a plan that I could easily stick to, this time I feel like I need to figure out a plan to deal with what 'feels like' a scumsided setup (actual EV may not be bad)

[Krazy]

Allomancer is a little bit lazy.

I'm kinda confused by what this had to do with Dann's post there

[Krazy]

Also Krazy just posted two big posts again (about specific players in the game and not mechanics) with 0 reads

One of them was explaining why I don't want to form a read of a player before they have posted lol

Also, I feel like my 'early reads' last time hurt more than helped; while they may have made me townread, I didn't feel like they helped town naturally sort the player list, so I'm trying to be a little bit less pushy on my reads early on this time tbh

[Krazy]

@mod please replace me.

This is like MBoS all over agian and I’m not fucking putting myself through that. Sorry.

please don't

[Krazy]

first off, this is never a valid reason to replace out of a game and you are an asshole because of that
second, I don't think anyone has really came close to breaking the setup to its core because its the best lovers setup ever created. The reason being its simple. You pair up, then you lynch, and then you leave gg ez game ez money. It's a classic. Not to mention there are 0 night actions aside from a kill. So mechanically, there is literally nothing to break.

First of all, yes I was and I apologize. I could make other excuses -- I wasn't enjoying the game, I was having an awful day at work, I was overwhelmed by the pace of the game -- but frankly I just thought it wouldn't be a big deal since the player list had filled fast and the player list seemed strong. I absolutely did not anticipate there being multiple other replace outs at the same time or for the replacement requests to be filled so slowly. But the bottom line is that I was an asshole and I'm sorry.

On the second point, I'm not sure I was saying the setup could be broken, just that it can be really frustrating for town depending on certain conditions aligning in first dance

[Krazy]

I’m not getting listened to and I’m being insulted and disrespected. I don’t know what else to do.

walk away from the thread, read a book, and see how reads have changed tomorrow?

We're 6 hours or something into a >26 day game. Speaking as someone who regretted replacing out last time, give yourself some time to think about it and decide tomorrow after you've cooled down.

[Krazy]

The fact that it was all to justify *not* reading a player (even if they hadn't posted yet) bothered me and seemed like wasted effort. I town read your response and your posts since those though

Nancy's frustration with being scum read earlier had me leaning back town too, though replacement is NAI so I'll wait till either one comes through or she makes up her mind on leaving or not to sort that slot

I have a pretty strong read of Nancy but I don't want to use my read to impact her decision to stay in the game or not, if she is going to stay I would like her to stay because she is willing to separate how people are currently reading her in the game from her desire to play the game

--and I say this as a massive hypocrite but there it is

[Krazy]

Let's wait until we know Nancy is not going to change her mind before making that even more of a thing than it is please

[Krazy]

but Alisae, do you believe in the heart of the cards?

[Krazy]

Her content didn't play like this last game, if that means anything.

but, importantly, you don't know her alignment from last game

(unless you do, but please stop perspective slipping or using "difference from last game" as an argument when FakeGod has all but said 'please don't do that' twice now)

[Krazy]

Wait fuck I wanted to ask Krazy to dance eventually but he's also a gent

can we be gay lovers

I mean what we do outside of the game is outside the control of the mod

[Krazy]

I want a response to my deadline concern if you haven't given one already.

Generally these games do not, in fact, last 26 days. On average we should be looking at something like ~20 days I think? some phases will usually go much faster than others.

In Halloweens' Ball I think think the lynch priority order was all decided in pre-dance, which was 8 days. So I think that town can in fact sort that many players in 8 days (they may even be better at it than in a slower game). Town did play out dance 1, but again, there was no coins mechanic there. So basically I'm just saying that the time town took in dance 1 there would be more safely allocated in dance 2. 8 days-1 day-8 days, rather than 8 days-8 days-1 day

As it is, I don't think town is just going to skip pre-dance, and it sounds like town is kinda playing around with actually playing at least some big chunk of Dance 1. So we should have like about the average 20 days to sort even if we skip dance 1--8 days pre-dance, skip dance 1, 2 day intermission, 8 days for second dance.

And we would still play out Dance 1 if the gentlemen we exclude at end of pre-dance is scum.

So I do think skipping dance 1 is still a reasonable offer, but I think we can also play dance 1 out if we feel pretty good about the top 4 town gentlemen and the coin pairings.

Gonna grab some dinner now, -- if you want me to stop talking mech, please stop asking me mech questions lol

[Krazy]

So are we going with plan 2 then?

[Krazy]

So, given Firebringer's claim and the lack of CC's, I'm going to assume that's real.

I don't have a super strong scumread on Vedith or anything but I really don't want to bet my (in)sanity on him being town, so I'm both doubling down on my "Dance 1 should be at most 12 hours" idea. Basically, I want people awake and looking at the thread. If a scum tries to scumclaim by rushing a lynch, at least there's a good chance one of their partners will be on to leave the dance and prevent a sweep. So I don't know we need to rush Dance 1, but I don't want us to dawdle with it either. When we start Dance 1, we should have a relatively clear idea of who we are going to lynch first.

And while it may not matter, since scum won't scumclaim if we lynch a gent at the end of pre-dance, I also think we're going to veer more into a "plan 2" direction, where we should be prioritizing long-term wim and dancing with good matches that we can work with rather than other factors or torturing ourselves day 1

[Krazy]

Following along from that logic, I would like to dance with Taly.

I think this is a good pairing for the following reasons:
-I like Taly and think I would work well with him
-I think that if I can solidify my townread in the PT in dance 1 and if we are still alive in dance 2, we can work well in solving the game
-We are not both universally townread so if scum opted to kill us, they would be providing useful information for the town

Since the logic of "let's fuck around with claiming coins" no longer really has a lot of merit given firebringer/vedith pairing and the risks that imposes, I'm going to submit the request. Taly can consider at her leisure if she would like to accept it, when she wakes up.

[Krazy]

∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾ Lady Taly, you are hereby cordially invited to dance with me at the three hundred and fifty-nineth annual sultan's dance ∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾

[Krazy]

So I don't know we need to rush Dance 1

realize what I mean by "rush" here may be confusing; I mean we don't necessarily need to immediately hammer no lynch like I originally thought, but I do not want people falling asleep basically and having there be a point where there's a risk of only a few scum/fakegod being online. So 'kinda rush' but not 'immediately skip before anyone says anything'

ideally we would have like one, really productive day, and then end before any major risks present themselves (unless we lynch scum early, in which case we can take the full 8 days)

[Krazy]

we should have a relatively clear idea of who we are going to lynch first.

if we were feeling sassy we could also skip dance 1 by actually just asking the bottom 2 pairs to just not pair in pre-dance, but then we would be acting without the benefit of each preceding flip like we would in dance 1 and would be lacking the chance for fast reconsiderations

[Krazy]

If we are really going to go all in on the early end to dance 1, I'm probably going to completely avoid pairing with anyone

I'm also going to avoid pairing if Vedith thinks its a good idea for him to vote at all in the second lynch of dance 1.

just wondering but why

you could a) not pair and give vedith the power to lolhammer anyone, unless we somehow force a second pair to not dance either
or b) get a flip on lowest gentleman and also a flip on two townies
and then, if you wanted to (I am not advocating this) leave the dance

why avoid pairing before dance rather than leave the dance at start of dance 2 after no lynching dance 1 (or possibly lynching 2 pairs but I'm a lot less optimistic about that with vedith)? wouldn't you rather decide to leave the dance when you have more information rather than less?

[Krazy]

@Krazy, your reads? I still see mechanics on your ISO. Not to blame 'cause you're being pro town and someone has to do it, but if you keep going with that people will start to think you're just getting behind doing pro town things in order to hide your intentions.

did see this question and I'm going to try to organize my thoughts later this afternoon after work; I think "bottom 3 gents, bottom 2 ladies" is best list structure but everyone else is welcome to ignore that

I still don't think we should be particularly clear with the exact ordering of our top 3s so that the scum kill is more informative but I'm pretty sure people will disagree/ignore me on that too

[Krazy]

I'm always going to be vehemently against dance suicides outside of very specific circumstances.

how is a dance suicide worse than a forced no-pairing?

[Krazy]

someone interact w me

vedith and firebringer are dancing, firebringer claimed 8 coins, so please tell us your read of vedith since that impacts a few other things rn

[Krazy]

Lets face it, If I'm not lynching/walking out Fire, then I'm most likely lynching you by this point.

I'm not sure this is certainly scummy but I feel like this is pretty bad for town cohesion and morale if you're going to threaten to use your 8 coins as like a baseball bat

I don't get why Ank is so opposed to forcing a no lynch if this is what we're going to be dealing with tbh

[Krazy]

tbh we had people like Dunn, Slaxx, mcqueen and Celica last game who did bothered to play seriously.

Dunn, Slaxx, and McQueen are all mains aren't they? I know Slaxx has Lolwagons as an alt and Dunn has like 20 alts or something. Also Celica should have been obvious if I wasn't being dumb

Jibril remains a mystery to me tho. ONE DAY, I WILL KNOW THE TRUTH OF THE JIBRIL

[Krazy]

like I don't know what to say but Worm is just not fresh to forum/chat maf

I don't buy it, I don't know it makes him scum but I'm like

"should we be putting money on whether Worm somehow ends up being a stealth House alt?"

I don't think he is but I'm trying to think of who else pretends to be a new player as a stealth alt when they clearly aren't

maybe he's just from like epicmafia or some homesite or something idk

[Krazy]

NACNY i already SAID THIS..

KRAZY ALLOWMANSTER and FREEBRANGER are TOWN-TOWN IN MY MIND AND HEART

chances this comes from someone brand new to this site and/or forum mafia is like 0% right?

[Krazy]

Taking out one of my stronger townreads isn't really any better

btw I'm not opposed to you pairing scumread, although I guess I understand a bit better why you'd say "just don't pair" then

[Krazy]

I'm controversial enough that knowing I'm town will help people's reads

And you get to flip the two scummiest gentlemen too

are you controversial?

You're aggressive but idk that's the same thing

[Krazy]

Preface: I don't have any super strong scum reads right now. What I have is the beginning of a poe built around a wealth of townreads. I don't particularly want to expand on my townreads right now, since I think indicating how "locktown" or "leantown" people are in my hierarchy is potentially more beneficial for scum than town. This is just where I am right now.

People I would like to see alive in second dance: PvtUrist, RadiantCowbells, Dannflor, Ankamius, Nancy Drew 39, Gamma Emerald, Taly

Vedith -- Firebringer is a special case -- I don't strongly townlean Vedith, and am mildly annoyed at him for how he has acted since the coins thing was revealed. Firebringer I would have otherwise liked to see in second dance but I'm pretty indifferent to Firebringer doing his usual shtick of leaving the dance rn -- if she wants to, fine, if not, we can deal with it in dance 2.

That leaves me with a 4:3 for remaining reads, of which, thru the power of maths, 4 must be town, and 3 will be scum (if Vedith is town, which I'm still thinking about). Don't think I've had a full solve d1 recently, but what ya gonna do. I wanted to narrow this down to 3:2 since that is more informative for how I would like things to go in Dance 1 but frankly some of my edge reads just aren't there yet

Allomancer -- Highest of my low gents. I think Allo has been playing pretty pro-town in terms of his mech thoughts and I feel like I've usually understood where he was coming from with his reads. The scumreads I believe are primarilly tonal I believe, which suggests to me that I need to at some point sit down and meta him, because I take tonal scumreads seriously
Moment -- there is literally nothing to work with here. Given my wealth of townreads this means he is low on my list rn
DoubtingThomas -- mostly I disliked some of DoubtingThomas's reactions to Dr Worm's posts, but overall I'd say this is more null-defaultscumlean than a scumread
Dr Worm -- this is probably the slot that bothers me the most right now. I think he's funny, I think he's having fun, I'm not nearly as annoyed by him as other people are. But I think he flat lied about not being a stealth alt; based on his lexicon, thought processes, way of presenting arguments, and mechanical familiarity, this is someone who has played forum/chat mafia before and I think he deliberately downplayed his experience at the start of the game. That does not *make him lockscum*. But I would have very much preferred if he just said "I'm a stealth alt, don't mainhunt me plz guys" -- he's denied this multiple times. Maybe it's true. But there are several phrases that are specific to *this site* that he has been using so either he is a really fast learner or he has been lying about his self-meta.

Pink Ball -- I actually really liked 323 and I very nearly have thrown this into my "would like to see alive in dance 2" and just decided that there's probably 2 scum gents, 1 scum lady, but I feel like I'm just not familiar enough with the player yet to feel totally comfortable doing that. Easily the most likely town out of my bottom 7 unpaired right now though.
Alisae -- I feel like I just haven't gotten a full whiff of town Alisae yet this game but this isn't really a scumread, just haven't seen the town yet
TheBrie -- I feel like in each of her long posts there's one line I kinda dislike, so in terms of like/dislike ratio this is one of the lower players, but again I wouldn't say this is a strong scumread

[Krazy]

Reminder that is my first list on d1, that is not a "deadsheep this" list

[Krazy]

NANY didn"T REALLY read DR WORM ISO before calling HIM SCUMMMMM..

btw if people are like "waah waah krazy don't pick on the meme newguy" -- when I talk about lexicon, I don't think I've ever seen a new player use "iso" without going through newbie queue and getting familiar with site lexicon, this is not a concept familiar to people who have not played forum mafia which is one of several reasons I don't buy that this guy has only played IRL mafia which was my initial sense of his implications

[Krazy]

dr worm is def scum here

I like this post but I'd like you to expand on your reasoning

[Krazy]

I'm also going to avoid pairing if Vedith thinks its a good idea for him to vote at all in the second lynch of dance 1.

Lets face it, If I'm not lynching/walking out Fire, then I'm most likely lynching you by this point.

this is the reason I am annoyed at you right now, although reading it again I guess there is a chance you were not actually implying you'd use the coin votes in dance 1 to lynch Ank which is how I took it at the time

[Krazy]

I like many of these reads but why Urist? What has he done that screams town to you?

I'd prefer to not go into too much detail on my top gents if I can, but long story short is that this is a BoP read and so far he has passed the test.

[Krazy]

Thanks, sorry if I'm asking redundant questions, I would try to do a full catchup but this thread literally seems to grow faster than I can read it sometimes and it's easy to lose track of things that were answered on the next page 0.o

[Krazy]

drworm is a copy of Kain Tepes I can't believe no one remembers tepes this is like exactly the same trolling. Just ignore every post he makes.

Do you think it is possibly the exact same player?

[Krazy]

KRAZY ALLOWMANSTER and FREEBRANGER are TOWN-TOWN IN MY MIND AND HEART

Explain this, and find better material than

Nancy

SORY I missed this but JUST SAW IT mentioned in your LAST POST

KRAZY - much EFFORT to SETUP spec to the POINT it LOOKS FAKE and SCUM is scared to appear LIKE THIS
ALLOMASTER - SINCERE and reading EVRYTHING w/o picking at DUMB SUPERFICIAL STUFF
FURBRANGER - taking STANCES and making himself a TARGET for NO PERCEIVABLE SCUM BENEFIT

I wanna say these are reads people don't make unless they have played on this site or MU for at least 3 months, I don't even think homesites generate this kind of read-logic

the thing is that's really pissing me off is that I'm not even really disagreeing with the reads, it's just that I feel like he's been manipulative in how he presents himself

[Krazy]

but I think my most optimal choice is Krazy, and... I'm literally about to accept it, but I'm gun-shy.

I think it was pretty reasonable to ask for a reads list first. I probably should have done one before asking, but I wanted to process a few more posts from the fringes of the list first.

[Krazy]

feelsbadman
well I am going apathy mode too.

lets spread apathy game wide

Get Alisae in here

She can help spread it around

Ank is Alisae town this game?

[Krazy]

like i've been urging, please wait to actually pair. We have plenty of time and we should intend to make use of it.

I mean we're nearing page 60, what do you want to wait for? 75?

[Krazy]

i am liking allomancer's tone

Can you expand on this? Are you familiar with Allo or is this just your impression from this game?

who believes NANCY CAN"T understand DR WORM"S questions??

On the one hand, I don't like this question because it feels... 'wormy'

On the other hand, the first time I played with Nancy on an alt I had a very similar reaction so... continue to feel conflicted about this slot but pretty okay sorting it with a flip

i am really loving worm rn

I don't get this reaction at all

[Krazy]

Spoiler:

I don't think defending Nancy is necessarily alignment indicative. Scum might do that too if they think she'll be a mislynch later.

I townread Pink Ball and Taly for it because the way they went about it was very much about diffusing the situation, RC's approach didn't really do that as much so meh I don't really think he's scum but I don't think that's a great argument for town RC imo

Well I haven’t played with scum!RC but him not wanting to rush the pairings also seems pro-town. doesn’t it?

But I dunno. I suppose I should wait for more content from him but nothing I’ve read from him so far has pinged me either. I’m definitely not townlocking him for this. If he does something I consider scummy, of course I’ll revisit my reads.

Yea, no I actually agree with you and have RC as leaning town, though he hasn't posted enough for me to be super confident

I'm just pointing out why him defending you doesn't ping me as hard as town as other players.

In regards to not wanting to rush the pairings... yes it's pro-town, but it's also an easy thing to say and be like "omg Vedith why did u pair up so quick and make things harder for town btw I'm totally TOWN" (I'm not saying RC did that but I definitely am suspicious of Allomancer for that exact sort of posting)

Thinking about Dann's tonalities; on a meta check it would be interesting to see whether he presents his thoughts more as "I" as town vs. directly addressing the person he's referring to as he does in the second post here. I think it's interesting he moved between the two styles on the same page.

[Krazy]

I keep getting the feeling that you're putting on a performance but not actually engaging with the thread as it is, any comments?

btw I will get to this but I have to process what was going on earlier in the thread otherwise I'm going to lose where I was. I know that just 'spamming catchup posts' can be scummy for some people but this really helps me get a grip on the game, I'm doing my best to consolidate tho. I just get nervous trying to talk about real time stuff when I'm still like 10 pages back in terms of processing what's going on

[Krazy]

It is a lot easier to make sure we can set ourselves up to properly make it through intermission with the highest information per slot ratio when we don't lolpartner in the first 12 hours

We were about 30 hours into the game and I wanted to give Taly time to think about it, I was pretty confident he would not immediately accept.

That being said, what do you think of Dr. Worm's offer? I know you're like, not dealing with him and all, but I am not the only one with a standing offer rn

ankamius weird shade of krazy noted

While Ank is being aggressive-ish in her push on me (I wouldn't say she's unleashed the inner Ank fire quite yet), do you think Ank fosing my ask for Taly was scummy?

He's talked about people but it feels like fluff rather than attempts to game solve

God bless you Ank lol

[Krazy]

Spoiler:

allomancer, moment (because I am lazy), and TheBrie.

Thoughts on PvT?

I like protoss myself quite a bit but Terran is a much more versatile race to play that I can do way more in terms of playstyles where as with protoss you can only do like 2 different kind of builds.

Plus dropping marines in bases is just the best.

I'm closer to townreading him now than anytime yesterday if it helps

I mean I think your reads are kinda wack but I do think you're town so it's helpful to know

I like protoss myself quite a bit but Terran is a much more versatile race to play that I can do way more in terms of playstyles where as with protoss you can only do like 2 different kind of builds.

Plus dropping marines in bases is just the best.

srry nver played starwars

this isn't helpful but I just want to thank FB and Dann for the existence of these posts <3

[Krazy]

Oh yeah I just remembered who TheBrie is

Hi!

Brie is an alt?

firebringer - did they claim how many coins? giving out info = >rand townie

What do you think of Fire's interactions outside of the coin thing, considering the coin count of high coin ladies was explicitly asked to be claimed by several people in the thread?

[Krazy]

20% DP B 80% IRL circumstances

Sorry if this is a bad question but what is "DP" here?

[Krazy]

is it cuz they dont scum read you lolmao

I guess this surprised me a little given that I thought Ank's reasons for wanting to dance with me were pretty clear, but maybe I'm paying more attention to those posts since they're about me idk

[Krazy]

ur indfifferent to me?
WOW

Our friendship is over.

I'm not indifferent to you, I said I was indifferent to whether or not you would leave the dance. Not the same thing since it has a lot more to do with your partner

[Krazy]

well why not?

I've gone over this -- I don't think the hierarchy of top consensus top pairings should be decided pre-dance, so anyone I'm not dancing with outside the bottom 3 pairings is kinda irrelevant to me unless I have a reason to change my read

I like playing hard to get

Also I'd rather taly not pair with Krazy

that's okay

I feel like I'm gonna make people unhappy no matter who I pair with

I would be happy with you pairing with several people. Nancy wouldn't be my first choice but I'm not dead-set against it

im becoming afraid ive townread someone too quickly, and i dont get the townreads on people im suspecting atm

which are the names you're concerned about?

[Krazy]

If I don't dance with you which I probably wasn't going to it's not because I'm not townreading you it's because I don't want to make both Taly and Alisae sad

Do you have a strong read on Alisae rn?

I can’t understand questions that are in gibberish. Krazy is probably going to break my heart, I just know it.

Nancy you know I love you, this is a pretty incredible list and I really hope you pair with someone that will give you high wim in second dance

I know that could be me but it doesn't *have* to be me and it is more helpful to me if it is not me if that makes sense?

[Krazy]

I shouldnt have asked because I've half assed the game so far and I owe this some serious work before I start coming out with reads or pairings. You know that I'm busy IRL so idk what you wanr

Remember that this setup is *not* Witches Ball and even though it is deceptively similar it might not be a perfect idea to approach pre-dance in the same way.

Maybe Krazy I've been too quick to townread? But I'm not convinced by the stated scumpoints on them?

This sentiment is a large part of why I want to dance with you and why I think we'd be a good pair

cohesion with reads is really not there right now

talk to me

[Krazy]

I wish I could pair up with Celica but they aren't in the game

[Krazy]

I would be happy with you pairing with several people. Nancy wouldn't be my first choice but I'm not dead-set against it

I think it's more likely you two get nightkilled and we lose both of you if you're paired

I (think I) understand why RC is considering dancing with you but I don't think it's necessary

[Krazy]

Who do you think I should be paired with?

Whichever out of PvtUrist or Dannflor you both townread and would give you high WIM, or maybe Allomancer if you disagree with the tonal reads there.

You townreading the person would be important, since I do trust your reads.

That being said I understand why you are considering RC but I actually think the likelihood you get nightkilled is pretty high in that scenario tbh

[Krazy]

What? I hope it doesn't sound stupid to admit I don't understand you at all. What do you mean by "top consensus top pairings"? And why are the bottom pairings more relevant?

Because that makes it clearer who the top townread pair is for scum which increases their win EV. The bottom pairings are more relevant because those are the pairings that will be under consideration in dance 1 when we will have significantly less information and also less time (if we go with anything resembling my plan).

[Krazy]

we are literally less than 36 hours into the game. We have 8 days. Do the math.

Yeah tbh considering Taly hasn't accepted immediately and I didn't expect her to, I don't think beginning the matching process nearly 25% of the way into the cycle is bad. I think pushing for continued sorting is fair but I don't think it's too early to start seriously considering pairings. Frankly I think the remainder of the cycle will be more productive if we act like each 48 hours could be the end of the cycle, even if that is an unlikely scenario.

[Krazy]

Krazy why do you want me even out of predance

I had a whiff of town Ank yesterday at one point and I want to see more

[Krazy]

At least I didn’t take it too personally when Slaxx chose Dunn over me but McQueen was holding out for me, so meh.

Remember your goal is not to pair with a universal townread in this setup, your goal is to pair with someone that you can sort and that you will have motivation to solve the game with in dance 2. Or at least that's how I see it; if you disagree and just think you will give up if you pair with one of the harder to sort town gents then I at least understand where you're coming from

[Krazy]

When did I become widely obvtown here?

who at present is scumreading you?

[Krazy]

Aren't you at all worried about the fact that I seem to be almost universally scumread?

Actually it makes me optimistic you won't be nightkilled

[Krazy]

Wait ank is universally scumread?

safe to say not universally

[Krazy]

I wouldn’t mind Dann but he hasn’t shown any interest in me, so far. Well, if we pair up, the chances of us being NK’d are a lot less, so maybe you should consider that?

idk, question is where I think reads will be of Taly at end of day and where I think reads of you will be. I think Taly has some town reads, like maybe some scum leans. Ank is pushing me scum, RC seems to have me null at best, and some people townread me. To me that sounds like a good pairing if I want both of us alive dance 2. But there is a chance I'm scummy enough to keep you alive, sure.

You + Dann would be interesting, mostly because I think Dann has some natural talent at scum play and I would like to see your read based on his PT play. I also don't think Dann is widely townread so that seems like a decent pairing to me.

[Krazy]

KRAZY DR WORM DIDN"T LIE SHOW ME WHERE??

Obviously I can't prove you are an alt of an existing user, but I have never seen new players discuss a player "iso" in their first game on a site--that is a concept specific to forum mafia as far as I know, which makes me think you have played forum mafia before.

[Krazy]

okay going to take a break from this thread for an hour or so

can't wait to come back to another 10 pages

[Krazy]

HI KRAZY! I have played mafia before with my FRIENDS and I think I'm GETTING BETTER!! I have 0% play at off-site.. also i wish you are a LADIES becuz YOU ARE TOWN imo an dwe could DANCE!!

alright fair, I misunderstood what you were saying and that's partly on me. I guess I took you saying "I have played mafia before with my FRIENDS and I think I'm GETTING BETTER" to imply that you had played only irl. That being said I do think the way you presented this was... arguably misleading. But maybe you were just being coy since you don't want people mainhunting you.

That being said I think people will mainhunt you less if you just ask them not to, that's fine.

Also not in love with your interactions with Nancy but I'm just going to bracket you off for the moment since I guess I should probably try to reassess.

[Krazy]

Didn’t he just create this account specifically for this game? Like how is he NOT an alt here?

Nancy, you of all people know why I'm paranoid about this, if you think about certain contexts.

[Krazy]

This is kinda weird because I have one completed scum game ever and it was in like 2012

Yeah sorry I'm still figuring out how to talk about you. I should try to do reads based purely off play this game so that my perspective on you is more coherent.

Spoiler:

I'm just going to say that my read of Dann is going to be heavily skewed by an ongoing game where I'm on a stealth alt so I'm just going to vaguely mutter 'probably town' unconvincingly and let the rest of you deal with his slot for a bit

[Krazy]

I wouldn't mind pairing with you at all if everyone thinks it's best but I also kinda like like Pink Ball

Who do you think is a good pair for Nancy?

[Krazy]

I think you're taking the worm too seriously when it's clearly not what he has intended at this point. It's pretty obvious he's an alt for the simple fact that he didn't even /inned in the Newbie Queue, 'cause alts can't do that when the main has enough experience. He would've /inned as a SE and that would've automatically outed the fact that he's an alt. He's just roleplaying a n00b

Yeah, I guess I just really parsed one of his early posts wrong so I thought he was trying to say he was more fresh and that's really kind of tilted my read

[Krazy]

Creature-style list?

[Krazy]

How you feel about Pvt rn?

[Krazy]

So you would put Allo above him?

[Krazy]

@ank, Yeah I'm leaning that way now

I thought Nancy was just annoyed that he started with a scumlean on her but looking back I was really only townpiling him because of one post and now I don't like it so I guess I'd swap him with Allo in my bottom 4

I guess with rethinking Worm I wouldn't put him quite on the bottom of my men, but I also don't really feel great about DoubtingThomas being at the bottom. I guess some people were towning DoubtingThomas but I'm not exactly sure which posts they were seeing town in.

Would you put Worm below DT?

pedit: @alisae, expand on allo scummy?

[Krazy]

Because his reads are scummy

hmm maybe, I guess I'd like him to expand on rc scum and dt town anyway so it might be good to engage him there

[Krazy]

but I only even have reads on Krazy/RadiantCowbells/Allomancer/Dannflor

the rest are just... not impressive enough? I guess?

[Krazy]

I kinda agree tho, gents are harder sorts than the ladies here

partly why I'm leaning 2 scum gents, 1 scum lady this time

[Krazy]

I almost feel like it's unfair to call Moment null when I think the correct term would be "absent" in a way

[Krazy]

fire can you illuminate me on DT town, I'm not "doubting" you I just feel like I haven't felt it yet, but I'm willing, my body is willing

[Krazy]

[Krazy]

Pvturist or DoubtingThomas probably

expand on DT?

[Krazy]

if you want a flashback you can always go read every other game in newbie queue

[Krazy]

hey moment, how you doing?

[Krazy]

It might be helpful to know that Firebringer claimed 8 coins and Vedith danced so some of my mech talk in the relatively early day is... somewhat out of date at this point

not sure that helps much with the other 65 pages

[Krazy]

I understand that her only scumgame on this site, Heroes Wanted, was characterized by a similar focus on mechanics in lieu of the early game reads that I expect from town Nancy.

I know you're still in catchup mode so I don't really want to poke too much, but I feel like one of your recent-ish games with Nancy, Boundaries of Reality, featured a Nancy that opened the game with several mech points.

[Krazy]

How you feel about Allo, Nancy?

[Krazy]

Am I weird for still kinda not wanting to partner up at all still

I'm not sure if you would take it in the complimentary way I mean, but:
you're weird but not for that reason

[Krazy]

It's not my intention to mainhunt worm although I do have a theory, not that it would help me in meta sorting him

[Krazy]

actually if I'm right it would explain one or two things and maybe slightly adjust my read in his favor

[Krazy]

Frankly Ank, I think you're the best kind of weird

[Krazy]

What's really annoying is I can't even talk about how annoyed I am about not being able to talk about the game I want to talk about with Dann because talking about how annoyed that makes me would out the game in question.

So I kinda just have to shove all that back with a pole and say, "Okay, yeah, I have yet to find a good reason to scumread Dann here"

He's in my upper bracket until he has a reason not to be in my upper bracket

[Krazy]

I mean Ank isn't incorrect that, all things being equal, in an open setup with no doctor, a townread RC is not an unlikely nightkill

But I think we need to not overanalyze who should or should not be with RC until he actually has time to process the game and give some developed reads

I'm townleaning him but I give his scum game enough credit that I do think it's right to wait until we've seen more

[Krazy]

I actually probably should stop thinking about worm because now that I know he's an alt of someone on this site, I think I know who he is and I'm starting to feel a little bit bad about the last game I played with him so I think I need to put that out of my mind for the sake of reading him objectively

So I'm gonna bracket him off until I see him... idk, do some more stuff other than just push nancy here and there

[Krazy]

Ank, considering I spent like 20 posts doing nothing but talking mech, I would have been shocked if you didn't scumlean my early game

I still <3 u tho (even though I don't want to dance with u this particular run)

[Krazy]

(even though I don't want to dance with u this particular run)

and no, RC, I am not open to the idea of "oh, Krazy would be a good dance partner for Ank" because I say things like this

[Krazy]

Fair enough, although I guess I would still say -- the most obvtown pair is going to die, and I still kinda don't get why you think the town is way worse off with that being before we start lynching rather than after we lynch two pairs and maybe risk a second pair getting lynched by a desperate scumread player like vedith

like my "no lynch" argument was basically for this exact scenario

[Krazy]

I liked his 707 at the time but I haven't really been in love with most of his posts since then

I thought the nancy read was wrong but I felt like I knew where he was coming from, and other than that it seemed fine given the game state

still think PB is a harder read so nullscum seemed fine, and while I have cooled significantly on Alisae and Vedith, I thought townreading them in the first thousand posts was basically fine

so idk

[Krazy]

I think going into second dance with more than 12 players is just inherently bad for town, honestly

I'm very wary of letting scum have that much influence in who doesn't get a voice in the game anymore before we maximize what we can get from everyone still alive

If we measure the game in % progress where 100% means a town win, then we are giving scum the tools to potentially cripple us by removing potentially two players with the highest ability to increase towns progress before they have the proper influence to use what flips are already there to increase the progress bar.

Does that metaphor make sense?

I mean... in previous runs of this setup, "scum kill IC"

I feel like town will have a lot more information from the nightkill, and they will have an IC at that point.

So I think the conversation and discussion at that point will be more interesting and therefore more informative.

Also, it's not like we won't get those player's perspectives. We will still have what they say in pre-dance.

Basically I just don't want vedith lolhammering someone dance 1 AFTER we spend 8 days hammering out an optimized lynch order because that would just be so tilting I [do not want to threaten replacing out, but my WIM would plummet in such a scenario]

basically I want to mitigate any scenario that would make me and the rest of the town too demoralized to win the game, even if it got us one low-hanging scum

fuck I'm ranting about mech again aren't I

[Krazy]

like this probably isn't the best way to frame it, but I want town to play this game that it is the most fun for as many people as possible,

not just fun for vedith who gets to do whatever the fuck he wants after we lynch someone in dance 1

[Krazy]

idk if I mentioned this but I signed up for the first game before really mentally processing the coins stuff and I really wish it just was not in this setup at all

[Krazy]

It's really not worth it because it makes the IC thing meaningless

I mean that's precisely why it's worth it for scum, because they can just throw IC on firebringer if vedith was in fact scum here

I need to find a way to stop talking about the possibilities in dance 1 but I guess I don't see why you can't recognize that I pretty genuinely did not want dance 1 to be really fucking stupid for town even if you disagree with my conclusions

[Krazy]

I do agree that Plan 3 was better if Fire had been a lower coin lady or had not decided to not do the things he did here

[Krazy]

I think trying to talk people into that might be informative but part of me thinks it would be a hard sell

Like which ladies would you want to sit out? Pink Ball would just dance with Worm to spite you and I wouldn't want you one of the two ladies sitting out anyway

So what you'd be left with... TheBrie? And I don't know she'd be on board either tbh

[Krazy]

No it isn’t but he was blatantly obvtown in that one. He was my #2 gent, after Slaxx.

Nancy I <3 u but please stop bringing up the previous run and reads in that run it's really hurting my head

[Krazy]

Ank you're also slightly ignoring the possibility that we actually flip a scum gent

I know it's unlikely but it is possible, but if that happened I think vedith scum claiming by yolo hammering is much less likely, and we would at that point be able to play out dance 1 at a more even pace

[Krazy]

Vedith is being scumread? Have I been missing something?

vedith is being "unreliable read" which makes his alignment somewhat irrelevant

actually a yolo hammer on town from a town vedith has the potential to be even more damaging to town

[Krazy]

I guess I'm saying, why not get some flips and at least have a chance to re-evaluate in dance 2?

you could give input, and if you thought you were with scum or the game wouldn't be fun because your partner was lame you could leave the dance*

*note that I do not actually advocate doing this, I simply see it as a better option than refusing to dance in the first place

[Krazy]

good talk but my brain is fried and I don't think I'm making it any easier for people like moment to catch up on the game

off for tonight, you guys have fun <3

[Krazy]

You just have to believe in the heart of the cards, Ank

okay for real gone now

[Krazy]

must... stop... typing... words

I thought nullscum was a fine read before 862, I liked that but still think it's a hard read to feel confident in

just close the browser Krazy, stop hitting f5, you can do it, put down the keyboard...

[Krazy]

Why is my sentiment a reason you want to dance with me? And think that we mesh well?

I don't feel like you are attempting to pocket me at this point; you feel like you are more interested in sorting me correctly.

Haven't caught up in this thread yet

[Krazy]

Take your time... we'll see if my heart can wait that long

<3 <3

[Krazy]

OK only 5 pages this morning not too bad

That was supposed to say "gj guys" but tbh I'm kinda whatever on pairing rn. I've got 6 coins though so I'll be a little choosy.

I mean I guess we still don't have cohesion on whether we're no lynching, speed lynching, or doing what in dance 1 so I guess you might want to pick someone that will go with town choices from pre-dance. I would prefer that you townread them given I'm leaning town on you.

This version of the setup favors scum a lot more than the old one

mmhmmm

[Krazy]

DR WORM must EXIT the game before INTERMISION!!

Interesting. In that case who is your top female scumread (after Nancy)?

[Krazy]

I'm not entirely opposed to Nancy/RC

I feel like the post count is sorta keeping up but the rate of interesting things being said has started to slow down

I need more from Allo, Pvt, Alisae, Moment, {RC, but more because I want to see more of his reads}, and I think I need to reread Pink Ball sometime later today

I feel like I've asked for literally anyone to explain their townreads of DT and I don't think I've heard it yet? I'm not even scumcasing him, he's just the lowest of my nulls with a few minor pings and I'm trying to see what other people like about the slot

[Krazy]

I might be onboard if enough people think it's a good idea. I'm not convinced of Vedith being scum, but I'll believe those who say he can't be relied on to use his lynch power well. I'm glad I don't have anything like that.

Given that one gentlemen is leaving the dance already, do you have a preference for who should be excluded from the dance in pre-dance, and is there a second gentlemen that you scumread strongly enough that you would refrain from joining the dance to ensure his exclusion?

[Krazy]

Ok I reread Worm's iso now that I'm like 60% sure of his main and I'm still not sure but I'm not sure I entirely want him in my bottom two, and if I'm redoing my bottom males entirely then I should be thinking about DT anyway.

If Worm doesn't want to survive intermission I am not strongly opposed to him suicide bombing a scum lady although Alisae will probably say I'm scum for mentioning it--but I'm just being real here, Dance 2 will probably be hectic AF and my impression right now is that he doesn't want to replace out but can't keep up with the game while still giving informed reads.

@Worm is that what's going on with that last post?

[Krazy]

did i mention thomas is town?

you probably did but can you help me out with my read there then

where is the town? -- not implying it's not there, just would like help finding it

[Krazy]

It is VEEEERY HARD to type out CASES as an ACTUAL WORM!!

True but given you have written more about nancy than about Brie, getting a clearer sense of your thoughts there would help

DR WORM knows it"s NOT BEST FOR TOWN if WORM is INNOCENT CHILI!! So WORM DIES before INTERMISSONS..

I don't agree with you nuking yourself in that case. Scum are probably going to do one of three things with the IC:
1- Throw it on the partner of their scummiest partner (more likely)
2- Throw it on someone who won't be a town leader no matter what (likely and also possibly overlapping with 1)
3- Throw it on someone purely for wifom (less likely but in being less likely still possible)

I know that several players have expressed annoyance with your posting style, and as of yet, while I find your posts humorous, you are not an obvious read (at least for me). You being IC'd by scum would not be dramatically *the worst*

Although this line of logic is... mildly townie, so thanks for sharing.

[Krazy]

Not yet. It's more that I've barely got time to play, and if I could be persuaded that me not joining would benefit town, I'd probably do it. But I don't have strong reads.
The more I think about it, the less I can see it being a good idea. I'm not all that worried about Vedith, and don't undertand the mechanics well enough to see why it would help anyway. Wouldn't he end up with a larger proportion of the votes with less couples?
Also I believe Ank is still intending to refuse all invitations, so there'll be two gentlemen excluded already.

Right, in that case I would drop this line of thought. If you were like, dead set on TWO guys in particular being scum, then that would be a good 'non-pairing', but otherwise it would be more informative for town to reassess after the pre-dance exclusion

Just for funsies though -- bottom three guys? Not necessarily scumreads if you don't have a lot of scumreads, but bottom three guys you have the least reason to townlean? That's basically what I'm doing and I actually think it's helping my thought process more than I thought it would

[Krazy]

IC Worm, that would be a hoot.

IC Worm would probably drive me insane.

For the love of all that is holy, we cannot let this happen.

Nancy sometimes it's hard to tell which one is the joke, ngl

but are you really advocating a policy lynch on worm just because you don't like his posts or are you scumreading him for his push on you?

[Krazy]

Do it Ank

Unleash your love

[Krazy]

Sadist.

If I was a lady I'd love a dance with worm

one-way ticket to second dance imo

Shit I think that means I've started subconsciously thinking of worm as town already, hmm.

how have I gone from too much scum in the gents to not enough scum in the gents

maybe Allo needs to be lower?

[Krazy]

I think I liked Allo for pushing me for reads but I don't actually have a lot of other reasons to townread him

His snippy catchup today pinged me just very slightly given I asked him 7 minutes after to expand on DT and he was already gone

Maybe worm goes up and then I play around with my Pvt read

[Krazy]

TheBrie is probably town via gamestate

Spoiler:

Should I tell her that I resisted making a snarky comment here because I'm really just glad Ank is here and I'm enjoying this game with her? Or should I just appreciate the moment and recognize that she's finally really getting going? Probably best not to even mention it at all

[Krazy]

the only ladies i townread are ank, fb, and taly and none of them want to pair with me

how you feel about gamma?

[Krazy]

DT,

can you expand on townread for DT?

I don't actually want to keep harping on this but I feel like every time I have asked it's a) "gut" or b) no response whatsoever

[Krazy]

i dont like to have my audience wait.

be still my beating heart

[Krazy]

If she ends up going through to the dance, she'll probably face pressure in general and for what changed her mind. That's not a risk mafia generally wants to take.

I think this is the only thing Dann said so far that particularly pinged me, and there I was more thinking it was possibly just shoddy reasoning. idk, Ank what did you think of this post? Was Dann possibly trying to pocket you?

[Krazy]

Moment's post on whitewashing Dann.

tbh I'd kinda like to wait for Moment to do more before overly nuking his like three posts with content, even though I know I did already kinda have a surprised reaction to his point about Nancy's mech talk

[Krazy]

I'm not sure why exactly anyone would want to pocket me at that point

fair, I guess. can we eliminate white knighting or you think he was being genuine?

[Krazy]

I know this isn't directed at me, but why do you think it's shoddy? It's not a super strong point for town!Ank but I think it makes it more likely than not

Feel like this is the same line of bogus reasoning that makes town incorrectly townread scum when they do things like self-voting, when scum I think self-votes way more frequently than town does (or at least under different circumstances)...

I agree on Ank Town, I just was worried you were trying to fabricate reasons for townreading Ank when you already know she's town. That being said it's not a strong ping and I still think you're town rn, just the first one I felt

[Krazy]

VeridanCleric’s ISO was lkke 95% mech talk.

true, but Varsoon also used mech talk as a way to break town cohesion so it's worth watching for, that's why I more want to see Moment's reads from deeper into the thread, feel like it's pointless to interrogate his reads when they don't even exist yet

[Krazy]

I've actually had a completely opposite experience re: self-voting, so maybe that's why I'm viewing this the way I am

I think the timing and purpose matters

Scum self-vote:
1-To anti-spew
2-To spike AtE or play up how "real" their emotions are

Town self-vote:
3-To take the piss
4-Because they legitimately believe their flip will help town

If you buy Worm's reasoning, and I kinda do rn, he felt more like #4.

Ank is pretty skilled but she felt a littttle bit closer to the third than the second for me.

[Krazy]

I think if RC pairs Alisae he for sure survives to second dance but I'm not sure how I'd feel about him making final 4 at that point so mixed feelings overall

I'm okay with him pairing with a nullread, that might be best even, but I'm not sure Alisae is null for me rn

I'd rather Alisae pair with a consensus scumread or nullread at this point ngl

I love her to death tho and hope she comes back to bring some fun memes

<3 u alisae I just kinda think maybe you rolled scum

is alisae my only actual scumlean rn? she might be 0.o

[Krazy]

ugh.... just finished categorizing reads

i already dont like them on a broad level but its where im at rn.

oooh boy I have such

[Krazy]

Allomancer is a little bit lazy.

I feel like with TheBrie I just still have questions, like -- what did this have to do with the quoted material in that long post

Could be a good idea. But short deadlines can be annoying because I'll likely be asleep for half of it.

While this is probably true I kinda just didn't like it as a potential setup to lurk in second dance if she's still alive

so I think with TheBrie I mostly just didn't have a great first impression

I might be onboard if enough people think it's a good idea. I'm not convinced of Vedith being scum, but I'll believe those who say he can't be relied on to use his lynch power well. I'm glad I don't have anything like that.

I guess later on I still feel like she isn't really processing posts, given she was kinda agreeing with this but wasn't really thinking about *who* she would sacrifice herself to exclude. This was more a "oh I'm being kinda scumread by people, guess I could just die" response which... idk how I feel about

so yeah nothing here makes me go "zomb lockscum" but I do seem to have a shortage of reasons to townread brie at this point outside of some wifomy stuff

I don't necessarily dislike any of the positions she's taking though? So I'm not trying to demoralize her and I hope she gets into the game a bit more

[Krazy]

i'm taking the day off because of rough irl circumstances pls don't pair before I can play tomorrow!

stop standing in the way of our love

[Krazy]

Perhaps Ank is just leery of too many people scumreading her?

that is the non-snarky version of the snarky comment I didn't write earlier

Ank has a thing against consensus scumreads; she feels more confident when she is going against the grain. Which is great and it's why I love her, but when we clash it tends to be about her gamestate reads which tend to follow this logic

It also does not make her wrong about TheBrie; I have very little confidence TheBrie flips scum here, so I think her comments and reads are productive and helpful for where we are right now

[Krazy]

I'm curious, how many of my games have you seen?

I remember reading maybe 5~6 of your games back during that Ircher game, but that was almost like 6 months ago now so if you feel like i'm being way off base you're welcome to say so

but yeah mostly I'm just thinking of our one game together

[Krazy]

Sleep well Taly <3 <3

[Krazy]

[Krazy]

I think both Vedith and Ankamius show themselves town from the discussion on page 73.

Can you expand slightly on what you liked about Vedith's posts there? They felt slightly blah to me in my catchup this morning, not scummy blah more just kinda NAI

[Krazy]

Hi Something_Smart, welcome

[Krazy]

TheBrie I also townread.

go on...

[Krazy]

I'm really tired but I don't want to get up and go to bed

am I broken

Time for me to ask your opinion on this three-hour long post-rock playlist?

Spoiler:

[Krazy]

Hi Something_Smart!

your predecessor claimed miller before she replaced out, would you like to confirm that roleclaim?

[Krazy]

I'm not the biggest fan of post rock so my official opinion after having listened to about 30 seconds of it is a solid ok/music

what's your jam as far as music goes?

[Krazy]

Can't blame a guy for trying