Merchant's Daughter [Endgame]

[Something_Smart]

I am a beautiful lady

However, it is hard to follow Alisae... I definitely won't do eir slot justice. But I will try my best

[Something_Smart]

However, what I won't do is read 83 pages. I'm usually fine going forward on replacing in, but my catchup reads are trash. I bet I'll do better keeping a clear head and an open mind.

[Something_Smart]

Hi Something_Smart!

your predecessor claimed miller before she replaced out, would you like to confirm that roleclaim?

Oh really, Alisae only claimed the miller part? I'm actually a deathproof miller survivor dayvig.

(And more importantly, I read open setups before replacing into them )

[Something_Smart]

momentum

*rimshot*

Also, I've been thinking. Scum get to make someone an IC. It would help immensely if they couldn't pick someone everyone already knew was town. So it's probably not a good idea to be very vocal about your townreads. Hmm, if only there were some other thread you could post them in... :thonk:

So, yeah. Whoever dances with me, this is what we are going to be talking about. Ideally, I'd like it to be someone who also prefers townhunting to scumhunting.

[Something_Smart]

SS you might want to read my early iso and bear in mind that Vedith is paired with Firebringer and Firebringer is the 8-coin lady

Actually in my experience Vedith has good reads and is bad at explaining them so I'm surprisingly not that annoyed about this.

I'll read it now.

[Something_Smart]

Okay not sure how far you wanted me to read but I disagree with both suggestions. Even if skipping the first dance is technically optimal, in practice 8 days is not enough time to solve a game.

And town's pre-dance reads are not going to be worth very much, so I think it's much more important that each person get a partner they can read, so they know when to leave the dance, or more importantly when NOT to leave the dance.

(If everyone could perfectly read their partner, unless scum paired with each other the game would be a perfect town win.)

[Something_Smart]

Spoiler: 2086

I am a beautiful lady

However, it is hard to follow Alisae... I definitely won't do eir slot justice. But I will try my best

Spoiler: 2089

However, what I won't do is read 83 pages. I'm usually fine going forward on replacing in, but my catchup reads are trash. I bet I'll do better keeping a clear head and an open mind.

Spoiler: 2091

Hi Something_Smart!

your predecessor claimed miller before she replaced out, would you like to confirm that roleclaim?

Oh really, Alisae only claimed the miller part? I'm actually a deathproof miller survivor dayvig.

(And more importantly, I read open setups before replacing into them )

Spoiler: 2103

momentum

*rimshot*

Also, I've been thinking. Scum get to make someone an IC. It would help immensely if they couldn't pick someone everyone already knew was town. So it's probably not a good idea to be very vocal about your townreads. Hmm, if only there were some other thread you could post them in... :thonk:

So, yeah. Whoever dances with me, this is what we are going to be talking about. Ideally, I'd like it to be someone who also prefers townhunting to scumhunting.

FB, which one of these posts felt town to you?

this is very good questioning methods

It makes the bizarre assumption that Fire's read is based on my posts and not on Alisae's.

[Something_Smart]

S_S

do you have a read on

Allo

or could you look at him? Since you'd have a less biased eye, being a replace-in.

Well, I've already said that my less biased eye (and my other eye, as well ) will not be reading the whole game. I could keep backing up from my replace-in until I found more Allo posts in context, but that probably wouldn't be worth the confusion it would create... so I only have his two recent posts to go on.

And, just like in my response to Pvt/Gamma, I'm surprised he thinks he has something AI on me already, when I don't think we've ever even played together before. Surprising thought processes are more often town than average, so I'll put him at a slight townread.

[Something_Smart]

Firebringer's allowed to townread you because Alisae,

I'm not allowed to scumread you because banana?

Wat?

[Something_Smart]

Hadn't cinsidered that but I think Urist's thinking makes sense. His post on the page after the one this was on is wtf though.

How exactly does it make sense to assume that a read on a newly replaced slot is due to its new occupant with 4 posts rather than due to its old one with god-knows-how-many?

[Something_Smart]

Oh actually Alisae only had 108 posts, that's less than I would have guessed

[Something_Smart]

I don't see anything in the rules to suggest that the scum can't all be one gender.

[Something_Smart]

Alisae was null

SS is scummy

I am, but that's not indicative of my alignment.

[Something_Smart]

As long as people talk about the game, sorting will be possible. Doesn't mean you need a complete moratorium on discussing townreads but if most people don't do it (or at the very least, if people don't say which townreads are their strongest), it will be hard for scum to know where town's collective head is at.

[Something_Smart]

In this case it can help both town and scum.

Or maybe an interesting twist is: don't talk about your read on your partner unless you strongly scumread them and are considering leaving. That way, if scum IC a townie with a strong townread on their partner it might turn into a town autowin.

[Something_Smart]

How good is Nancy at reading you?

[Something_Smart]

I wasn’t talking about actual gender but are you saying that you really think the scumteam could be either all ladies or all gents?

Beacause I don’t think that’s ever happened before in this kind of setup.

I believe the scumteam is random, so the odds of this happening are somewhere in the ballpark of 1/8. Just because it's never happened doesn't mean it's impossible.

[Something_Smart]

has anyone read PinkBalls iso this game and just gone "wow this is a good read. 10/10 funniest best posts in this game".

I was in agreement until I got to the part where he said he didn't like U2.

[Something_Smart]

I still think unless you have an actual hierarchy or lynch order, it’s not going to make that much of a difference to scum but if people are making questionable reads for not really great reasons, that I think, is still the best way to sort people, Do you disagree with that?

I will grant that preferred sorting methods differ from person to person. I don't think that "questionable reads for not really great reasons" is something easy to sort based off of, but maybe other people have had success with that method.

And you don't need to give a hierarchy to give information to scum... any statement of "X is obvtown", "X is locktown", "I'm never voting X", etc, gives scum a hint for who to IC.

[Something_Smart]

-Long deadlines tend to favor scum more than town

To a point, sure. But I for one have a life and don't want to be forced to solve in 8 days. If I did I'd have joined a blitz game

-In Halloweens' Ball, the solve was primarily determined in pre-dance, so it's not like it can't happen

Yes, it can happen, but in my experience it's the exception rather than the rule. Definitely not something I'd like to count on.

[Something_Smart]

Could be but coming from someone who was fooled by scum in a hood in Labrynth, I’m not sure how much confidence the rest of town ought ought to have on that read, if the majority disagree with it.

I mean, it's your prerogative to not use your hood. If you're afraid of being pocketed by it, then it's understandable.

I didn't solely mean that we should pair with people we can read

in a hood

, but rather just people we can read in general.

[Something_Smart]

Honestly this is where my scum reads on Pvt and Allo come from. They both feel similar to "having reads just for the sake of having reads"

I don't think that's actually a scum trait. Town feel the pressure to generate reads as much as scum do.

[Something_Smart]

Meh S_S felt dodgy with his reply, referring to only Allo's posts since he replaced in...

Context is everything.

If I have no context, I have nothing.

I do not want to have nothing.

Ergo, I won't take stuff out of context

If you want to point me to specific posts or sections and give me enough context to understand what's going on, you're more than welcome. But that might violate the "unbiased eye" specification.

[Something_Smart]

I think town are more willing to admit their reads are bad/lazy or that they just don't have strong reads on anyone.

That's a good point. I guess the way it works is, if you're in a situation of having no good reads, you can either admit it or force some. Town in that situation are more likely to do the former. But it might be that town are also more likely to get into that situation in the first place? Because town have to form reads off of what they believe, but scum can form reads off of things they believe or things they don't.

That question isn't a simple one like the others. Regardless though your answer was good.

[Something_Smart]

you joined a game that MUST end within 26 days, and that usually ends in around 20. Right now this game is likely to match that within 2 days, if Dance 1 goes at the pace I have proposed it go at. I am not asking you to solve the game in 8 days, I'm asking you to solve it in 18.

What is the pace you currently think Dance 1 should go at?

I haven't read much of your ISO, only the beginning.

[Something_Smart]

Oh, here's a question about the mechanics that I was thinking about. To Krazy, but anyone can answer. How often do you think we should utilize lynching versus leaving?

[Something_Smart]

I’ve never played with scum!him but I just don’t think this is it.

Scum-RC's basically a god of scumplay. No, he's not ACTUALLY a god of scumplay, but he's BASICALLY a god of scumplay...

RC is a very strong scum player. Since you haven't played with him as scum, I'd recommend you not allow him to get above null-town unless you're explicitly sheeping someone else who knows him better.

[Something_Smart]

I'm not sure how I feel about leaving because it is obviously very powerful if done right. I definitely agree that nobody should leave without asking permission from at least a few people first.

[Something_Smart]

Who knows him better again?

I don't know your experience with a lot of players in this game. I know Fire knows you, I'd bet that Ank, Gamma, and Vedith also do. Depending on who Pink Ball is an alt of he may also qualify.

[Something_Smart]

dance 1 should be resolved while the whole town is at full attention and played somewhat like a blitz

I was going to say this had better not coincide with marathon weekend, but that would actually be amazing. Sitting down and just playing mafia the whole day...

That would kinda suck if I have homework, though

[Something_Smart]

I wasn’t talking about actual gender but are you saying that you really think the scumteam could be either all ladies or all gents?

Beacause I don’t think that’s ever happened before in this kind of setup.

I believe the scumteam is random, so the odds of this happening are somewhere in the ballpark of 1/8. Just because it's never happened doesn't mean it's impossible.

Mybe? but I still think unlikely.

Oh no wait, I'm dumb. It should be in the ballpark of 1/4. 1/8 each for all-gent and all-lady team.
The exact numbers are 12.4% for all gents and 8.2% for all ladies, for a total of 20.6%.

So actually, it is kind of surprising that there's never been a team like that.

[Something_Smart]

So actually, it is kind of surprising that there's

never

been a team like that.

if you flip scum I'm adding this to the "does anyone ever REALLY scumslip" thread

[Something_Smart]

KainTepes?

[Something_Smart]

WHY do THINK RC-NANCERY is good PARTNERSHIP if NANCERY has never played with SCUMRADIENTCOWBALLS?!?!

question for ANYBIDY!!

Presumably, RC believes that Nancy's going to townread him.

For other people, it's just a question of whether they think they can read BOTH RC and Nancy. I'm sure there are people here who can.

[Something_Smart]

KainTepes?

SOMETHING_SHARTS PLEASE DR WORM IS NOT KAINTREPES!!

I am DR WORM..

Oh, I'm sure. Just you calling RC RadiantCowballs reminded me of him

[Something_Smart]

RC with ... SS

That would give me very unpleasant Lone Wolf flashbacks.

[Something_Smart]

But then. on what basis do you suggest we pair up?

Pair with someone you can work well together with and someone you can read.

[Something_Smart]

And/or, I suppose. But both would be preferable.

[Something_Smart]

I certainly don't think it's a good idea for everyone to try to pair up with someone they townread.

People who are obvtown as town should pair with other townread players. But people who are not often or easily townread should pair with other people like that. In particular, if two common scumreads pair with each other it becomes very awkward for scum if one of them is scum.

[Something_Smart]

I certainly don't think it's a good idea for everyone to try to pair up with someone they townread.

I mean the pairings should be informed by some kind of read otherwise the pre-dance is uninformative for town

Yes...? I never said anything to the contrary. But it should be informed by more than just literally how town you think the person is. Besides, the point of the pre-dance isn't really to get information per se, it's to set us up for success in the dances. Information is not the ONLY goal.

This is like the 4th thing you've said now that seemed ??? btw

Welcome to playing with me Do you equate ??? with scum and if so, why?

[Something_Smart]

Do you equate ??? with scum and if so, why?

they can be if they're the majority of what I'm seeing from you

I have 40 posts so I'd hardly call 4 things a majority. But why is that, anyway? Why should the density of weird things affect how you read them? Do you think I'm trying to say things that come off as weird?

do you have reads yet? preferred bottom 3 gents/bottom 2 ladies?

I don't have SCUMreads yet. Being a replacement, new to the Dance games, and not a strong scumhunter anyway, I don't intend to have much influence on the pairings, outside of my own.

[Something_Smart]

Do you think I'm trying to say things that come off as weird?

And, expanding on this. Do you think I'm saying setup-related things that I don't really believe?

[Something_Smart]

I have trouble seeing that with this mechanic.

Trouble seeing what? This is an open setup, those are the numbers...

[Something_Smart]

RC with ... SS

That would give me very unpleasant Lone Wolf flashbacks.

???

I was masons with RC and he made a complete idiot out of himself. It was very frustrating.

[Something_Smart]

But then. on what basis do you suggest we pair up?

Pair with someone you can work well together with and someone you can read.

I think the two go together. If I am constantly fighting with my partner, I will probably just be too upset to do anything useful.

Yup, exactly.

[Something_Smart]

Doesn’t that put an NK target on the most obvious one and then there’s the scum IC reveal, in second dance.

Maybe. But it's better than scum not even having to kill those two towny people because they paired with two scummy people.

[Something_Smart]

I sincerely doubt that Taly is obvtown.

[Something_Smart]

I sincerely doubt that Taly is obvtown.

Your slot is one of the scummiest so

Point being? Doesn't make my statement any less true.

I've only read the posts of Taly since I replaced in. But in my experience, he plays very similarly as both alignments.

[Something_Smart]

Merchant's Daughter

PLAYERLIST

• Gentlemen
  1. PvtUrist
     
  2. Krazy
     
  3. RadiantCowbells
     
  4. Moment
     
  5. Allomancer
     
  6. Dannflor
     
  7. DoubtingThomas
     
  8. Dr Worm
     
  9. Vedith
  
  
• Ladies
  1. Ankamius
     
  2. Firebringer
     
  3. Something_Smart
     Alisae
     
     
  4. Nancy Drew 39
     
  5. TheBrie
     
  6. Gamma Emerald
     
  7. Pink Ball
     
  8. Taly
  
  
• Pairs
  1. Vedith - Firebringer
     
  2. RadiantCowbells - Ankamius

Vote Counts and other events

None.

Spoiler: Setup

Setup

• 3 Mafia Gentlemen/Ladies
  vs
  14 Town Gentlemen/Ladies, Open setup
  
• The game will include four phases,
  pre-dance
  ,
  first dance
  ,
  intermission
  , and
  second dance
  .
  Pre-dance
  will last 8 days,
  intermission
  will last 2 days, and each
  dance
  will at least 8 days.
  
• Each Lady starts with anywhere between
  1 to 8

  gold coins
  . Each Lady has a different number of gold coins, unless we have 9 ladies, in which case two ladies will have 1 gold coin.
  
• During the
  pre-dance
  , a
  GENTLEMAN
  can ask a
  LADY
  to the dance in thread. Each
  LADY
  can accept only one dance proposal.
  
• At the end of the
  pre-dance
  , any player who doesn't have a dance partner will be asked to leave the dance. (death)
  
• Each dance pair will then become Lovers, and they will be given a private topic to discuss the game.
  
• During the
  dances
  , normal nightless lynch mechanics will take over. A lynch will NOT reset the deadline. If the Mafia makes up 50% or more of the remaining players at any point, Mafia immediately wins. If all of the Mafia are lynched, then Town wins. If the game runs out of time and at least one Mafia is still alive, then Mafia wins.
  
• During
  First dance
  , Each
  GENTLEMEN's
  vote
  will count as equal to the number of

  gold coins

  his partner possesses
  . During
  Second Dance
  , every player's vote
  will count as one.
  
  
• First dance
  will end if there are 12 players or fewer left alive or deadline is reached. During the
  intermission
  , Mafia may secretly force one of the dance pairs to leave. Mafia also picks another player,
  whose alignment will be made public at the beginning
  of the
  Second dance
  .
  Second dance
  will then begin, and continue until the game's end.
  
• Also, at any point during the
  dance
  , a player may voluntarily leave (he/she dies and his/her alignment flips), which forces his/her partner to leave as well.

Spoiler: Ruleset

FakeGod's Mafia RuleSet

• ONE: FUNDAMENTALS
  • All site-wide rules apply. Read and respect them.
    
  • There is no personal communication outside the forum postings (regarding this game) unless your role specifically allows it.
    
  • Do not quote your Role PM or any private communication (either real or fabricated) with the moderator, co-moderator, backup-moderator, or fellow players. Paraphrasing your Role PM is acceptable.
    
  • Be courteous and respectful to all your fellow players and the moderating team.
    
  • Play to your Win Condition.
• TWO: DANCE PHASE
  • Votes must be
    bolded
    or they shall not be counted. Abbreviating someone's name is acceptable, so long as I can discern who you were voting for without trouble.
    
  • Unvoting is not required, but is much appreciated by the mods. If you control more than one vote, Unvoting will unvote all of your votes, unless you specify which vote you unvote.
    
  • Once you have reached a simple majority (half of all living players plus one) that person will be lynched.
• THREE: INTERMISSION PHASE
  • Any role or faction with night abilities may choose to use them by PM-ing the mod with their choice.
    
  • If no action is received, no action will be taken. All actions received after the deadline has passed will not be valid.
• FOUR: CAPITAL OFFENSES
  • Do not quote your Role PM or any private communication (either real or fabricated) with the moderator, co-moderator, or backup-moderator. Paraphrasing your Role PM is acceptable.
    
  • There is to be no personal communication outside the forum postings (regarding this game) unless your role specifically allows it.
    
  • The following is a list of outlawed shenanigans:
    • Using invisible text, codes, cryptography, etc.
      
    • Editing your posts (if you have the power to do so)
      
    • Insulting other players
      
    • Quoting any PTs you may have access to
  • If any of these offenses are committed, I have the right to force-replace you from the game or modkill you.
• FIVE: MISCELLANEOUS
  • Feel free to address me in-thread, but if there is a large egregious mistake please PM me. Small matters like errors in the votecount can be posted in-thread.
    
  • I have the final say on any issue. I reserve the right to force-replace and modkill at my will.
    
  • This is a game. Have fun, and keep the game fun for other people. Stay civilized, please.
    
  • I have the right to edit this RuleSet at any time.

[/list]

Spoiler: Role PMs

∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾ Lady FakeGod, you are hereby cordially invited to the three hundred and fifty-nineth annual sultan's dance You have X gold coins You are aligned with Town ∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾

∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾ Gentleman FakeGod, you are hereby cordially invited to the three hundred and fifty-nineth annual sultan's dance You are aligned with Town ∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾

∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾ Lady FakeGod, you are hereby cordially invited to the three hundred and fifty-nineth annual sultan's dance You have X gold coins. You are aligned with Mafia ∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾

∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾ Gentleman FakeGod, you are hereby cordially invited to the three hundred and fifty-nineth annual sultan's dance You are aligned with Mafia ∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾

It's absolutely a bad pairing. I don't know why Ank accepted it.

[Something_Smart]

Goddammit stupid quote won't go away :/

[Something_Smart]

Goddammit stupid quote won't go away :/

Did you read the posts before that?

Maybe not carefully enough.

[Something_Smart]

And this is obviously a very good pairing for scum me

Really? Didn't RC say he was leaving as soon as he could?

[Something_Smart]

Can you stop pretending that the last 100 pages don't exist? It reads as very disingenuous, and if you're not understanding people's viewpoint of me now, then how about you ask questions or ISO?

Why does it read as disingenuous? That statement was a compliment to your scumgame... I don't think you're as easy to read as you seem.

[Something_Smart]

Although I will say, I didn't mean to suggest that NOBODY could legitimately lock you as town, but I figured that for most of people here who don't have a lot of experience with you, it's too early to make a judgement that confident. Ankamius's reasoning is different, and understandable.

[Something_Smart]

if you're going to make statements about reads and people's reads on me or someone else, then you should present your thoughts as to why and not pretense it with "I only have X amount of knowledge on this game"

Fair enough.

[Something_Smart]

also moment is town.

How confident?

[Something_Smart]

It's looking like the only people who might be paired with me are Pvt, Moment, Allo, and Thomas. Allo probably won't because he scumreads me. Do people have any opinions about any of the others pairing with me?

If I had to pick one atm I'd probably pick Moment because I feel like I'd get along pretty well with him.

[Something_Smart]

If I had to pick one atm I'd probably pick Moment because I feel like I'd get along pretty well with him.

Outside of this game or within a different PT?

In the PT, I meant.

How would you feel about possibly pairing with me?

[Something_Smart]

Is my inclusion in that due to my own posts, or due to Alisae's, or simply PoE?

[Something_Smart]

How come?

[Something_Smart]

how is gamma town

The question is, how is she scum?

oh

the pronoun isn't sticking for some reason, I'm sorry gamma

gamma isn't trying to scumhunt.

Can you say more than that? Surely scum would want to look like they're trying to scumhunt...

[Something_Smart]

I don't understand why Krazy-scum would bring up 3+ strategies and weigh each of them out accordingly while being very forthcoming with how the town thought about it.

Well, there's an obvious answer, which is "to look town."

Perhaps an even more blunt answer is "that's what he would do as town."

Besides, I saw you in Echo Bay Grits. It's a totally valid scum strategy to play the town leader and try to direct the use of mechanics.

[Something_Smart]

S_S

, do you believe

Krazy+Me

is scum/town or even scum/scum?

Statistically speaking it's probably not scum-scum. Krazy doesn't seem easy to read so I don't really think I'm qualified to read there.

Better yet, if you believe

Krazy

IS pocketing me, then how do you think pairs should go?

I'm fine with you pairing with Krazy as long as you think you'd eventually be able to see through his pocketing, because by definition as long as he is alive you will also be alive to catch him and leave on him.

If you wouldn't feel comfortable reading him, there don't seem to be any other townread gentlemen left. Probably pick one that you at least have a decent idea is town and think you can read pretty well, and then regardless of what other people say if you end up townreading him you won't be lynched.

Who do YOU want to pair with?

First of all, not someone who's overtly scumreading me, for instance even if Allo offered I'd refuse because if town he'd probably just leave immediately.

However, I do want to pair with someone who is a pretty easy lynch (though not necessarily widely scumread), because that seems to be how my slot is treated. (I still have the feeling that this is mostly because I'm the only replacement... discrimination ) That way, if we do end up getting mislynched at least two question marks will be removed at once, and if the person I pick turns out to be scum we get to see scum squirm to try to keep us alive for as long as possible.

I don't see a scenario where scum would *want* a scum/scum pairing unless they were forced into it.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. If two scum are confident in their ability to make it far, a scum-scum pairing allows scum to win with a town-town pairing still alive, which could be a huge boon.

@S_S, you've been in the game a fair bit now that I think you should have been able to form some reads based on what you've seen so far. You don't have to be explicitly detailed or super confident, I just want to hear your thoughts on the players who've made the most impression on you. Your ISO is a lot of fluff, useless questioning, and a little bit of setup spec. I need to see something more concrete.

Sure. Bear in mind that my reads are still nebulous. I can make them look concrete, but don't expect me to stick to them.
Townreads are, in playerlist order, RC, Allo, Worm, Vedith, Ank, Taly.
Nulltowns are Moment, Thomas, Pink.

1371 is a post I randomly came across while looking through stuff. Noting it here because it is the source of both my Allo and my Vedith townreads.

[Something_Smart]

I bet those reads are no better than random though. So take them with several grains of salt.

[Something_Smart]

I have nothing to say to her. Only you, Ank, and fb are townreads.

Brie, PB, and GE are null-reads;

i wasn't really sure about the order.

Okay looks like people are pairing. I better hurry up. I know Taly won't pair with me, so

I'm going with my second highest townread unpaired lady

.

TheBrie, dance with me?

Brie, you can do better. This is desperate.

It is desperate. It also reads as fairly genuine. I'm not sure if he'd act that brazenly and obviously desperate as scum.

[Something_Smart]

It is desperate. It also reads as fairly genuine. I'm not sure if he'd act that brazenly and obviously desperate as scum

Ahhhh. People keep saying Allo's tone is so genuine, but I read his tone as explicitly not genuine. It feels like it's trying too hard.

I need to meta him probably

Trying too hard to do what?

[Something_Smart]

That might be right overall, but I don't feel that with his desperate dance request. I doubt he goes "how do I look genuine? I know, I'll intentionally pretend to be super desperate."

I think that post only comes from Allo if he actually is desperate, which he could still be as scum-- but I also think he'd be more likely to hide it.

Especially if, as you're saying, he might be putting on an act, it'd be weoyto abruptly drop the act and show his genuine fear.

[Something_Smart]

Townreads are, in playerlist order, RC, Allo, Worm, Vedith, Ank, Taly.

Also, I thought you were scum reading Taly. But maybe I misunderstood something.

I was nullreading Taly. But I townread Ank and she seems to have a pretty strong grasp on Taly's meta.

[Something_Smart]

Who are you implying is playing “town leader” here? Certainly not Taly?

Krazy. I'm comparing his play to scum-Taly's in a previous game.

[Something_Smart]

By the way, now that I'm paired I can freely claim my coinage: I'm the 5 coin lady

you gave dr worm 5 coins? oh fuck no oh god

Dr Worm is definitely not the most impulsive person here.

[Something_Smart]

When you want to sort me without relying on someone else's meta, lmk.

Do you think her meta argument is inaccurate?

He feels a lot more like the one town Taly I played with years ago than the over the top scum Taly that I strongly believe he would have opened with like Echo Bay Grits and Labyrinth

The difference is very jarring and its a lot easier to see the genuineness in what he's posting when he plays this way.

[Something_Smart]

However, I DO like people to use in-game examples to townread me, and not rely on meta because that excuses problems that arise from my gameplay

I don't follow. What do you mean by that last bit?

[Something_Smart]

You know that sig quote does not make me feel better about you lol

Were you in the game that quote is from?

[Something_Smart]

If Allo is scum here this interaction looks hella bad for Dannflor.

[Something_Smart]

If Allo flips scum, the simplest way to explain his flubbing is to say that he initially put his buddy Dannflor as town and then his team later decided that Allo should distance from Dann, and he did so very awkwardly.

[Something_Smart]

I'm actually calling you out SS, that by saying that seems like you're planning a push on obvious town pair Nancy/Dann in case your scumpartner Allo flips

Right, because I'm definitely in a position to push on an obvtown pair as scum, you know, with all the people townreading me and all

[Something_Smart]

If Allo flips scum, the simplest way to explain his flubbing is to say that he initially put his buddy Dannflor as town and then his team later decided that Allo should distance from Dann, and he did so very awkwardly.

Oh ok I get your point, good catch.

But Dann is town tho

If anything, this would imply that Allo is town. With whatever degree of confidence we accept the premises that (a) if Allo is scum, then Dann is scum and (b) Dann is town, we must accept the conclusion that (c) Allo is town with the same degree of confidence.

Probably not more than, like, 60% or 70%, depending on how confident you are in (b). But I don't know if Allo is the best choice to be left behind.

Also I have this nasty feeling that I'm going to be the last lady unpaired and I'm going to have to choose who dies.

[Something_Smart]

Errrr why would Dann being town make Allo town? That correlation sounds more wacky

If we were to assume that the statement "if Allo is scum, then Dann is scum" is true, and we also assume that "Dann is town" is true, then by contraposition, we could conclude that "Allo is town" is also true.

Therefore, the more confident we are in those two premises, the more confident we can be in the conclusion.

Or, to use words instead of logic: it's not likely that scum-Allo flubs his read like that on a townie. Since you're confident Dann is town, it means that Allo is less likely scum for it.

[Something_Smart]

I'm just a poor girl and nobody loves me
She's just a poor girl from a poor family
Spare her her life from this monstrosity

I have 1 coin

I'm not sold Allo didn't just drop his town read of me because I started hard pushing him.

I rarely see scum doing stuff like that.

But I don't know if Allo is the best choice to be left behind.

Also I have this nasty feeling that I'm going to be the last lady unpaired and I'm going to have to choose who dies.

Who would you choose to be left behind, if you had to choose?

That's the thing, so many of the remaining gents haven't done much since I replaced in... so I really don't know. I'd probably just go with popular opinion.

[Something_Smart]

Errrr why would Dann being town make Allo town? That correlation sounds more wacky

If we were to assume that the statement "if Allo is scum, then Dann is scum" is true, and we also assume that "Dann is town" is true, then by contraposition, we could conclude that "Allo is town" is also true.

Therefore, the more confident we are in those two premises, the more confident we can be in the conclusion.

Or, to use words instead of logic: it's not likely that scum-Allo flubs his read like that on a townie. Since you're confident Dann is town, it means that Allo is less likely scum for it.

That's not how logic works. If p is "Dann Is scum" and q is "Allo is scum", then:
P Q p-->q
T T T
T F F
F T T
F F T

So, Dann is scum implies Allo is scum is a true statement if both are indeed scum. If Dann is scum and Allo isn't, then the statement is false. But if Dann is town, Allo could be either town or scum, since the premise implied that Dann was scum, and he isn't. So the promise isn't broken if Dann is town, thus making Allo's alignment a mistery regarding Dann.

The premise is Allo scum implies Dann scum, not Dann scum implies Allo scum. The idea was that if Allo was in fact scum who fudged a read, it was more likely he fudged it on a partner.

[Something_Smart]

And Pinkball says what I wanted to say. Which put Pinkball as town for me. Cause there's no way in anything she's scum with SS and Allo if they're scum.

If Allo and I both flip scum then I could understand you townreading Pink for that interaction. But if I'm not mistaken, it sounds like you're calling him unconditionally town based off of it...?

[Something_Smart]

DENIALING THE ANTISEEDANT!!

I'm not denying the antecedent, Pink was just confused about what my premise was.

[Something_Smart]

Well yeah, if the premise is false then obviously what it implies isn't necessarily true. But my point is that since the premise has a decent likelihood of being true, so does the conclusion.

[Something_Smart]

What someone says exactly what you were thinking, you don't want to think they could be scum.

It's true that you don't WANT to think they could be scum.

That said, that's different from saying it actually affects the chance they are scum.

It depends on the scum equity of the statement, and also how difficult it would be to come up with that line of reasoning as scum. In this case, I don't really think either of those merits townreading Pink for saying that... if he's scum, it's a great way to cast doubt on multiple slots at once, and it's not exactly a rocket science thing to come up with.

I don't think Pink is scum, but I also don't think he should be townread specifically for pointing that out, because I bet he'd do it as either alignment. Make sense?

[Something_Smart]

Also I don't have any clue on how to approach this set up, as I have not played it before.

Any thing I should look for when looking for a partner?

It's awfully late to be asking this question... were you not considering asking anyone to dance before now?

[Something_Smart]

saying people are okay with pairing you with SS is basically saying they're okay with lynching you with dance 1 at this point, in case the subtext here isn't clear

...ouch?

I still haven't really seen much explanation of why I'm such a consensus scumread. I'm suspecting that it actually is just because I'm a replacement.

[Something_Smart]

Most people had Alisae as null/scum because she didn't seem to be having fun and you haven't really improved the slot that much

Implying I've improved it a little, which means I should be at null or maybe slightly south of it. Not the automatic dance 1 lynch. There must be more to it than that, and don't say PoE.

[Something_Smart]

saying people are okay with pairing you with SS is basically saying they're okay with lynching you with dance 1 at this point, in case the subtext here isn't clear

...ouch?

I still haven't really seen much explanation of why I'm such a consensus scumread. I'm suspecting that it actually is just because I'm a replacement.

you are being too concerned about how you are being viewed by tohers

I rather think I've shown the appropriate amount of concern, given that I seem to be essentially an automatic lynch as soon as the dance starts...

Who is U2?

One of the best bands ever

[Something_Smart]

i read 3 of your posts and see why people want to lynch you

Do you agree with them?

[Something_Smart]

i read 3 of your posts and see why people want to lynch you

Do you agree with them?

i read 3 of your posts so my opinion of you doesn't really matter

i do think scums care about how others see them more than towns do so these type of questions you ask doesnt make me feel better abotu you

They're not intended to. I want to know what you think.

Maybe you should read more of the recent game...?

[Something_Smart]

inb4 Allo and SS both flip town

Wtf is this supposed to mean?

[Something_Smart]

Townleaning Gamma and Pvt off of recent content.

[Something_Smart]

inb4 Allo and SS both flip town

Wtf is this supposed to mean?

Is this an agree of a disagree?

Wat?

Townleaning Gamma and Pvt off of recent content.

what content does gamma have?

Yelling at you for calling him scum.

Who is U2?

I think it was an abbreviation btw
DON'T USE THAT SO CARELESSLY AGAIN. IT'S SHORTHAND FOR A SPECIFIC PLAYER AND I GOT CONFUSED.

But he's not in this game, and it's not my fault people use a nickname for him that's the same as the name of a band

[Something_Smart]

Here is the lie. You say I post when you're in the thread, which SHOULD make the inverse true (you post when I'm in the thread). Despite this I remember 0 of your posting. So that does not compute.

Not necessarily. Some people are really forgettable.

[Something_Smart]

Yelling at you for calling him scum.

unreal read

is it cuz u scum read me or because her 'emotion' was real?

Latter. I wouldn't expect scum in the already precarious position she is in to be making more enemies.

[Something_Smart]

Let's do this instead: find his partners and I'll give you a cookie.

This is a terrible idea please don't do this.

Don't scumhunt off of associatives with living players.

(And before anyone says anything, no this is not what I did with Allo and Dann.)

[Something_Smart]

Do you want to be left behind then?

[Something_Smart]

You're a

Yes, ofcourse there is Moment. Maybe actually pay attention to things once in a while.

What an unhelpful response.

[Something_Smart]

I'm kinda thinking I want to pair with Thomas. Everyone else is too towny.

[Something_Smart]

I'm kinda thinking I want to pair with Thomas. Everyone else is too towny.

I would rather you paired with Urist. There's no need to be fatalistic with your lynch.

Urist seems like he wants to suicide though.

[Something_Smart]

The only person casting shade about you in regard to your ability is S_S and he's probably scum or something anyway

I don't recall doing this, unless you meant when I was talking about Lone Wolf, which was more about how I didn't think I'd get along with RC than anything.

But the real message here is more troubling... not only are you implying that my opinion on RC's skill is somehow related to my alignment, you're implying that anyone questioning RC's skill is scummy.

That is, at the very minimum, silencing dissenting opinions in the manner of groupthink. Although this could have been manipulative, it's likely you were just trying to reassure RC.

Which is a reasonable goal. But don't do it like that. It contributes to a harmful mindset and it helps nobody.

[Something_Smart]

So no, I am not saying people questioning RC's skill is scummy, I was saying you specifically made a very loaded accusation against him, and you were basically the only one in the thread to do so, but he basically acts like everyone thinks like 2271 is how people actually see him

2271 is not an accusation of anything. It is a claim that he is very good at playing scum. That statement is objectively true or false irrespective of the number of people who have said it.

[Something_Smart]

Since people townread Moment, and Moment townreads me, would a me/Moment pair be a good idea?

[Something_Smart]

I mean, ostensibly you work around that by explaining how you got your reads. It would be good if the person making that complaint could point to specific reads, though.

[Something_Smart]

I guess the viability of me/Moment depends on how strongly he townreads me then.

[Something_Smart]

Do you know why people were townreading TheBrie in the first case? I feel like it was like that when I came in and I haven't gotten any strong feelings on her since then.

[Something_Smart]

SS u dont want to dance with me?

Depends. Being able to read your partner is very important so if Moment actually has a strong townread on me then he becomes the perfect candidate for me to pair with.
If not, I don't have any objection to dancing with you but I doubt we get very far.

[Something_Smart]

for me, it's that i didnt like your self-consciousness about how you are being viewed by others

It depends on the person, but I'm pretty sure most people would wonder why upon being told they were to be the automatic first lynch.

I care about how I'm viewed because it affects my strategy. I'm going to pair differently if I think I'll survive a while than if I think I'm dead in the water. Not to mention that getting people to explain their reads on me can help me tease out who is scum pushing me...

You're thinking in black and white. Which is definitely better than having no clue, but it's not going to get you very far.

[Something_Smart]

I kinda want moment/SS now but I'll probably get in trouble for it

Well...

We need to see how strongly he townreads me. If it's not that strong, then you're taking away the potential for Moment to endgame. (Although he certainly wouldn't endgame with Gamma and it sounds like you're iffy on TheBrie, so if he's not confident enough that I'm town then he probably can't endgame at all.)

[Something_Smart]

If TheBrie is wolf Vedith/Fire probably contains 1 wolf

By the magic of contraposition, does this mean that if we flip Vedith/Fire and it comes up T/T we can feel better about TheBrie?

[Something_Smart]

I think moment should get Gamma’s 6 coins/votes. Anyone disagree with that?

Yes, I think pairing him with town is more important. The coins don't actually matter that much.

[Something_Smart]

Oh hey Nancy. In Room Odds you complained that we lynched Gamma who was obvtown, so you must have at least some ability to read her. How do you feel about her here?

[Something_Smart]

Trazly

Where have Urist and Moment been, we need them..

[Something_Smart]

Also, can someone who's townreading Nancy give me a quick rundown of the towncase for her? I don't think I've seen much about it.

[Something_Smart]

Fun fact, Pink Ball said something earlier that made me think he might have been Alchemist

I'll be here later tonight if anyone wants to talk to me. I would like Krazy to take a moment and reflect on the possible reasons I might be playing differently from Excalibur, other than my alignment being different.

Interesting note: It seemed to me that in the past few days the public opinion on me has shifted significantly. Whether or not that's actually the case, the thread created that impression with multiple influential people pretty much simultaneously saying either they townread me or they were reevaluating their scumread on me. It's almost a foregone conclusion that scum would have expected me to be mislynched at some point in time, so I expected that scum might push back against me being townread.

The two people who have done this are Gamma and Krazy.

[Something_Smart]

I concluded you don't like playing scum and you're not really that into this game.

That's why I made 100 posts in my first 48 hours...?

How am I not into the game?

[Something_Smart]

Point me to a towngame where you do this little setup spec discussion then

Sure...? Here. Here. Here. I'm pretty sure I did more setup spec in this game than in any of those except maybe the worst idea, because the setups didn't require it... I'm pretty sure I've talked about everything about this setup that wasn't already covered. The amount of setup spec required varies depending on the game.

And maybe stop playing guessing games and saying that every fos that comes your way is bias over being a replacement.

Well, only a few people had cited a reason, so it's a pretty reasonable assumption, or at the very least it's a starting suggestion which people could refute by giving other reasons why they scumread my slot. Not many people actually did that.

It seems like you've spent this game more being indignant over being scumread than in sorting, although it's possible your indignation and omgusing just sticks in my memory better

Out of 100+ posts I have maybe five where I'm asking why I'm being scumread, I think I have a right to that especially since the answers were not very forthcoming.

And I don't really think I've OMGUSed at all before right now.

[Something_Smart]

Regardless of meta, I doubt setup spec is ever alignment indicative and framing this in such a way to imply he's scum for not doing setup spec just feels like a weird angle to take.

There is more than a grain of truth in his assertions. I do setup spec more as town than as scum, although the amount I did in Excalibur was unusually high because it was a completely new setup that had never been played before and there was a lot to talk about.

But given the circumstances (this is a slight variation of a setup that's been played many times before, and a lot of people here played in them but I haven't, and I'm a replacement coming in after a lot of topics have been discussed and resolved), I've done the amount of setup spec that I feel was appropriate.

[Something_Smart]

Like my impression of S_S is that he enjoys talking setup spec more than Jingle, but maybe my experiences with him have been warped by looking at his play in theme games over opens idk.

I do like talking setup spec, but it was different in Excalibur because there were several possible strategies that were mechanically different, and there were huge differences between them, so there were a lot of things to discuss.

The amount I have done this game is about average.

[Something_Smart]

You know that sig quote does not make me feel better about you lol

Were you in the game that quote is from?

I don't think this ever got answered btw.

[Something_Smart]

He was scum, yes, that's why I asked.

I actually saw that sig before I even replaced into this game and went and found the game because I was curious

But it wasn't easy to find, so I wasn't sure if Krazy would have known that.

[Something_Smart]

It's pretty missable.

[Something_Smart]

Does that mean I shouldn't accept yet?

[Something_Smart]

Well if I can...

Moment, I would be honoured to dance with you.


@Mod, is a gentleman ask one lady, then a second lady, can the first lady still accept? The offer wasn't withdrawn in this situation.

The hell?

Why did you do that??

[Something_Smart]

What part of letting Moment pick wasn't clear to you?

[Something_Smart]

There's no reason to leave more than one person out, if only because it prevents Vedith from yolobombing.

I think I may be happier with Allo atm, I don't give any shits that he scumreads me anymore and I just want to pair with town.

[Something_Smart]

Allo, do you townread me yet?

[Something_Smart]

You, Pvt, Allo, Gamma, me.

I'm annoyed Brie took Moment's invitation without waiting for him to okay it, but I feel like the fact that I waited and Brie didn't should make me clearly town.

[Something_Smart]

I think I want Allo. Depends on how stubborn he is about scumreading me because he absolutely cannot walk out on me.

Gamma - Urist maybe? Don't really think it matters much as Gamma never endgames, but I wouldn't mind Urist having 6 votes.

[Something_Smart]

No... but I'm not putting much faith in my townread of him.

[Something_Smart]

Why do you want Urist to have the votes

Because if we tell him not to use them, he probably won't.

I guess we could just let Gamma pick though. If there are two scum in Urist/Thomas/Gamma we're in a fantastic position no matter what, otherwise Gamma is either town or has to pick a townie.

(This is all assuming Allo wants to pair with me. If he doesn't, he should pair with Gamma because I don't want him left behind.)

[Something_Smart]

i'm totally fine with only the pairings made so far going on i think

I thought you townread me

[Something_Smart]

i townread 0 of the remaining gents

Well it's astronomically likely that at least one of them is town. It's very likely that two of them are town.

I currently feel there's about a 50% chance that everyone unpaired is town.

[Something_Smart]

Actually, I changed my mind. I want to pair with Urist.

[Something_Smart]

i townread 0 of the remaining gents

Well it's astronomically likely that at least one of them is town. It's very likely that two of them are town.

I currently feel there's about a 50% chance that everyone unpaired is town.

even if this is the case we have the pairings that matter

Which ones?

[Something_Smart]

Actually, I changed my mind. I want to pair with Urist.

What changed it?

Rereading Allo's posts, followed by rereading Urist's posts.

[Something_Smart]

moment/brie and nd/dannflor

How confident are you on Nancy town?

[Something_Smart]

all 4 of those ppl are near 100%

How about this? We pair me/Urist, then you or Ank leaves. In the case where you are town and correct, it only makes a difference if me and Urist are both scum (which you agree is negligible), but it helps us in the case where you're scum.

Is that fair?

[Something_Smart]

all 4 of those ppl are near 100%

How about this? We pair me/Urist, then you or Ank leaves. In the case where you are town and correct, it only makes a difference if me and Urist are both scum (which you agree is negligible), but it helps us in the case where you're scum.

Is that fair?

i am so glad you didn't pair with moment lol

Please help me interpret this post in a way that isn't a scumclaim...?

[Something_Smart]

There's no juke if RC leaves immediately at the start of the dance.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, here's how I see it.

RC has a plan that almost guarantees a win if he's town, and that plan doesn't depend on him surviving either.

So he needs to flip before the plan is executed, but if he flips scum, then we have nothing but WIFOM about whether his plan would really work... so it would be best to have as many people alive when that happens.

The only risk to my plan is the possibility that Vedith is scum and beats both RC and Ank to the thread unlock... so if you think that's more likely than the possibility that RC is scum and me/Urist are both town, then you'd oppose this plan, but otherwise you should be in favor of it.

[Something_Smart]

Who here townreads Vedith?

[Something_Smart]

Thank you for the offer btw Urist. I just want to make sure it isn't actually better to skip right to intermission.

[Something_Smart]

Not confident in my townread on Vedith but I hate the fear-mongering posts about him

That's a very weird and leading way to describe it.

What I'm weighing here is the chance RC is scum versus the chance Vedith is scum.

I don't think anyone suggested he's actually likely to yolobomb, but we have to consider it as a possibility.

[Something_Smart]

Taly, the issue is--

If Vedith is scum, it might be right for him to do it. If he is scum, it therefore might be wrong for us to give him that opportunity, and thus, we need to judge the likelihood of him being scum, so we can decide if we want to give him the chance.

[Something_Smart]

Your whole point here relies on a hypothetical idea - of which - you haven't really stated that you legit think

Vedith

is scum?

My point RISKS Vedith being scum. If he's scum, he could cause trouble. I don't know if he's scum, that's what I'm asking all of YOU about.

Is

Vedith

scum to you? It seems you do, otherwise you wouldn't make any plan that relies on the uncertain chance he's scum?

I don't think so, but it's not impossible. That's why I want other people's opinions...

(And also, Vedith being scum wouldn't automatically make the plan fail. He'd have to decide it was best and beat both RC and Ank to the thread.)

You've mentioned

Krazy

doing something that I assumed made you suspicion of him 3693, but you haven't said anything about the fact that he has 7 coins. What's the difference of here?

7 votes isn't enough to lynch someone before intermission.

Side note - I was going to wallpost this, but too many words will drown out my thinking towards your posts in the past 2 days. Some of your reads seem based on how people interact with your slot, and I don't fully vibe with it?

Another thing is -

RC+Ank

aren't auto-suiciding very stupidly anymore to my understanding. So 3934 seems misplaced, and again, you're talking about how

RC

has an endgame plan but are listing how he'd play as BOTH scum or town here?

I don't comprehend your line of thinking here, and it reads as you not having many unique reads beyond what the thread has notioned in some form.

Go ahead and ask about anything specific that confuses you, I don't really know how to respond to this.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: No Lynch Dance 1

[Something_Smart]

Do you think I should accept Urist?

[Something_Smart]

I'm probably going to get overruled

So I'll just say that I want Urist to flip sooner rather than later no matter what the pairings are

Do you townread me? Do you think I'd be better off paired with Allo or Thomas?

[Something_Smart]

I'm still here Thomas, just doing other stuff

How long until end of pre-dance?

[Something_Smart]

i am not gonna wake up in the morning 9:45 am EST

Something, wanna talk and determine to get paired up or not rn?

Well

What is your read on me?

[Something_Smart]

Yeah you two should pair

How confident are you Thomas is town?

[Something_Smart]

At the very least, it gives me, the most townread unpaired player, a choice.

[Something_Smart]

I think earlier S_S wanted to pair with someone not town read because he was feeling like first lynch? Probably changed now that more people town read him

Yep.

[Something_Smart]

the most townread unpaired playe

sup with this?

Is that not accurate?

[Something_Smart]

Thomas can you ask me to dance?

I think I'm leaning toward wanting you, especially since several people said they wanted that.

[Something_Smart]

SS it feels like you're more interested in keeping yourself alive than anything else right now.

I am interested in finding a town partner.

If I do, the longer I can survive, the better.

[Something_Smart]

i mean having it as something you want, sure

but he's been more interested for example in pairing with someone who townreads him than on what his read is on them for example

what game are you reading? not this one, apparently

and I see very little attempt to sort on any of the recent pages and his push for me to leave dance was gross so

so.... I'm scummy because I proposed a plan with an almost 100% chance of winning from your POV... ??????

i mean

at this point i just want the current 5 unpaireds to go first so idrc how it works tbh

You don't honestly think there's more than one scum among us, do you?

[Something_Smart]

Okay, I feel good enough about this now.

Gamma you won't have to worry about that

Something_Smart, Down to Dance?

I accept.

[Something_Smart]

i mean having it as something you want, sure

but he's been more interested for example in pairing with someone who townreads him than on what his read is on them for example

and I see very little attempt to sort on any of the recent pages and his push for me to leave dance was gross so

There’s no reason for either you or Ank to leave. I’m glad both of you finally realized that.

I mean... if RC is dead we can sheep his reads until the end of the earth. If he's alive we can't do that.

[Something_Smart]

so what SS am I supposed to be policy lynched every game so that people can trust that I'm not deep wolfing? dunno how that's ever fair to me

No, it's the opposite.

If you have reads that are as confident as yours seem to be this game, we can lynch you and win without any risk at all. If you're town and correct on your reads you've singlehandedly won us the game, and every person will be following exactly what you say. I hardly see how that's unfair to you.

[Something_Smart]

is rc's town game that good?

Often. It seems to me that usually when RC implodes as town, it's because he wrongly scumread someone and not because he wrongly townread someone.

From what people have said it seems like he carried the last dance game (where he was IC), as well.

[Something_Smart]

so what SS am I supposed to be policy lynched every game so that people can trust that I'm not deep wolfing? dunno how that's ever fair to me

play worse wolf games

Actually no, the actual answer would be "have less confident reads," because it's not a policy lynch. If you don't want to be lynched you can choose not to agree to this, but then you won't be conftown and therefore people can't just instantly trust you.

It's not a policy lynch, but it seems to be an easy path to victory in the case where you are town and correct.

[Something_Smart]

pretty much my sole weakness as town is that I can't deal with being bad faith pushed and that happens to align very poorly with being a very good scum player and having people bad faith push me all over the place.

That is an unfortunate weakness, yes. And I do understand why that would be frustrating.

Just make sure to understand that I'm not pushing you. If you don't want to agree to this, then you don't have to and I won't try to get your slot killed.

But if you want people to sheep your reads... this is the easiest way. If you do agree I'll do whatever you recommend, including leaving if you want, even though I townread Thomas.

[Something_Smart]

I want Gamma paired because that's the path of least shenanigans. We just pair everyone and then vote no lynch straightaway, and that way there's no chance of a yolobomb.

[Something_Smart]

Well, a yolobomb would require two scum to out themselves, so we'd still be in a good spot after it happened.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, there's no chance of scum-Vedith going out in a blaze of glory because the lynch threshold will be 9.

Gamma's pair definitely gets lynched in second dance, probably first, but by that point we're out of yolobomb territory.

[Something_Smart]

what's yolobomb?

Scum gentleman using a ton of votes to lynch a widely townread pair.

[Something_Smart]

RC is more valuable to the game alive then dead, so I don’t know why SS is saying this.

Not if he has 100% townreads on two town pairs.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, there's no chance of scum-Vedith going out in a blaze of glory because the lynch threshold will be 9.

Gamma's pair definitely gets lynched in second dance, probably first, but by that point we're out of yolobomb territory.

I don't understand ur point if u think they get lynched either way and u somehow think them getting lynched later is less of a yolobomb than during the first dance exactly? I am confused on what is going through ur mind, what am i missing?

I'm talking about if Vedith is scum and, knowing that town would win through PoE otherwise, hammers a widely townread pair like Moment/Brie. That's a lynch on a pair that otherwise would never have been lynched, which is a huge blow to town.

[Something_Smart]

i didn't say 100%

i said near 100%

I mean, yeah, you shouldn't ever be literally 100%.

This is why I said you could make this decision... you can let us know if you ever get confident enough.

[Something_Smart]

SS, did you out how many coins you had

1. You're a poor boi

At least I know you're not a gold digger though

it takes 9 votes so 2 people would be scumclaiming in that process

Exactly. This is why I want Gamma to pair.

[Something_Smart]

you know I could leave the dance as soon as I see one vote down to not even give vedith the chance, right?

Yeah, of course. I'm not worried about yolobombs, provided that everyone gets paired. This is why I said that Gamma pairing is the path of least shenanigans.

[Something_Smart]

i regret my partner choice

Damn he was just after my money the whole time.

[Something_Smart]

why would I ever

want to lynch myself when i don't need to lynch myself

Well, I definitely won't sheep you while you're alive. I don't know about anyone else.

[Something_Smart]

that's a pretty suboptimal way to play the game

I can't read you and I don't think I've met anyone who's proved to me that they can.

[Something_Smart]

the risk is small imo to non existent when I have a magical gun that gets rid of it.

But if Gamma doesn't pair, you don't get a chance to get rid of it. Vedith just swoops in with VOTE: Moment and it's lights out.

Who do you want paired with her?

I don't think it really matters, because she definitely doesn't get anywhere near endgame anyway. Probably given that it's reasonable to say she can pick.

[Something_Smart]

doesn't matter

you're not beating me as scum anyway so why lose the games when I'm town as well too?

weird flex but ok

[Something_Smart]

RC being obvtown is NAI.

[Something_Smart]

If Gamma doesn't pair, that's probably a good idea, yeah.

But Gamma's got an offer now and she's online so I don't see why she wouldn't.

[Something_Smart]

I’m honestly perplexed by this. You either agree with RC’s reads or you don’t. How does him being dead, have jack to do with anything?

I only partly agree with his reads, but that's irrelevant. What matters is that I trust that, if town, his reads are right. But I can't be sure that he's town until he's flipped, and I can't read him, and I have only limited faith in the ability of anyone to read him.

Ank townreading him does count for a fair amount. But I don't know enough about Ank's experience with him to say for sure that he couldn't fool her.

[Something_Smart]

because he wants to bully town me into letting myself get lynched whenever he wants so that he can tell that I'm scum when I refuse

RC between you and me, exactly one of us makes extensive use of bullying as a scum tactic, and it ain't me.

Think about it. If I were scum, would I really be trying to mislynch

YOU

of all people? How would that be anything other than a suicide mission?

[Something_Smart]

did i call you scum? i didn't make any commentary on your alignment.

I mean, what you described in 4232 isn't something that I (or most people) would ever do as scum, so you implied it. If you don't think I'm scum, then that's good, but don't assume that I might be town and still have an ulterior motive beyond what's stated, because I don't like to manipulate people for no reason.

SS, do you have a coherent list of where everyone stands?

I kinda feel like I should wait for the PT to answer this, no? That's exactly what we should be using it for...

[Something_Smart]

I think that if you truly have no ulterior motives than you're a wolf. There's a middle ground where you don't realize what you're doing, but you're doing a thing.

I mean, what I might be doing is accidentally misinterpreting how confident you are. (If that's the case, I feel like you're misrepresenting it, because a near-100% chance of winning-- even if it's something like 90%-- is still really good to bet the game on.)

I have no intention of calling you scum purely for refusing. Of course, mathematically, if there's any chance you'd agree as town (and there is, probably not more than 10% imo), then your odds of being scum rise slightly, but not significantly. If you feel bullied, it's probably because you've been in a similar situation where you actually have been bullied. This offer is actually a huge compliment. I wouldn't suggest it to someone whose skill at townreading I didn't have a ton of respect for.

[Something_Smart]

He's not.

[Something_Smart]

who really cares what SS thinks right?

Not going to say it's not justified here, but this mentality has cost town many games.

[Something_Smart]

who really cares what SS thinks right?

Not going to say it's not justified here, but this mentality has cost town many games.

I'd say this but I have my ways of being persuasive

Then you're not the type of person I'm talking about

[Something_Smart]

I wrote this right at the end of pre-dance and just failed to post it in time twice.

At FakeGod's palace was a mighty ball
With dapper gentlemen and ladies fair
But genders found unequal numbers there
And it was clear there was not room for all.
As couples lined themselves up 'gainst the wall,
Poor Allomancer was without a pair.
He left, disgraced, enraged at the affair
That, once had seen him proud, now saw him fall.
But Allomancer won't be soon forgot!
His sacrifice will not be made in vain
His journey ended so ours could begin.
For him we'll unravel this awful knot
Triumphantly repeating this refrain:
"For Allomancer's sake, and for the win!"

[Something_Smart]

???

i.e., the IC selection could be to cast doubt onto Gamma, if she is town, for the wifom involved

It's simpler than that. Scum picked an IC that can never live to endgame.

[Something_Smart]

And I think it was SS and a few others saying I was the first lynch unless something changed.

Congratulations, something changed.

[Something_Smart]

what plan were you talking about with RC that showed he had a way to win this game and why did it revolve around him and Ank's death?

RC had near-lock townreads on Moment/Brie and Dann/Nancy, and the plan was simply to kill everyone except them. The problem was that RC's reads couldn't have been trusted to be 100% genuine while he was alive, so he needed to die for it to work.

[Something_Smart]

His "we sheep RC after he flips town" followed by RC dying

The whole point of that was I was so paranoid of RC I didn't want to trust his reads while he was alive... why would I then kill him as scum?

[Something_Smart]

So you think his reads were wrong?

If I wanted to do that couldn't I just say he was town and kill the all-town pair he was townreading?

[Something_Smart]

That would be better, because then he'd push for the other pair to be the last pair alive...

[Something_Smart]

Yes I'm saying he could be wrong on one pairing and you could use that to your benefit. SS if you're town, you think this doesn't make sense? 'cause I think it's pretty easy to understand what I'm saying.

I think it doesn't make sense, yes. Even if there's one scum is Dann/Nancy/Moment/Brie, lynching all the other pairs won't win scum the game; those two pairs will still get a chance to figure it out. Furthermore, there's no guarantee that people will respect RC's reads after he's dead.

Killing the town pair in those two seems stronger from that position. That way, RC will be alive and actively defending the other one, and he'll push to have them endgame, since he said multiple times he expected to be paranoia lynched. The only way this would be worse is if I'd think it would be absolutely impossible to paranoia lynch RC, which wouldn't make any sense with the way I've been playing.

[Something_Smart]

I think the point is, I might do that if RC was wrong on a read.

But I'd never do it if he wasn't, so Pink's push is based on an unproven premise that one of Dann/Nancy/Moment/Brie is scum.

[Something_Smart]

Ehhhhh.... Did you townread RC/Ank at all? I want you to give an actual read and your assessment about the gamestate - rather than planning things and giving ideas solely based on other people's reads.

I townread Ank. I can't read RC.

[Something_Smart]

Why are you ignoring RC's reads?

[Something_Smart]

I was talking to Gamma.

Also Nancy, I asked this a way back and I don't think you answered. You said Gamma was obvtown in Room Odds, so it sounds like you can read her pretty well... do you have a read on her with that level of confidence here?

[Something_Smart]

I don't follow this. RC/Ank were a widely town read pair too, what makes it less likely RC/Ank + end game pair wouldn't be able to figure out who the potential final scum is over Dann/Nancy/Moment/Brie? In fact, that situation seems even more dangerous just because RC is there.

RC seemed pretty confident he would be paranoia lynched at some point, and for good reason, because a lot of people get paranoid of him very easily. His plan was made without his survival in mind. This is independent of whether or not his pair was townread (and I'd say they were fairly townread but not incredibly so, although maybe more people townread them than were vocal about it).