Open 753: Nomination Mafia [Game Over!]

[volxen]

VOTE: Auro

Let me guess, you rolled scum like you do in 95%+ plus of your games?

[volxen]

@RadiantCowbells I hope you rolled town for a change, because you've always rolled scum against me in our previous games together.

[volxen]

i confirmed my role two minutes ago and i've honest to god already forgotten

You're well on your way to being the MVP of this game.

[volxen]

@RadiantCowbells I hope you rolled town for a change, because you've always rolled scum against me in our previous games together.

I've literally been wanting to play a game with town!you for like

months

.

[volxen]

VOTE: Auro

Let me guess, you rolled scum like you do in 95%+ plus of your games?

@RadiantCowbells I hope you rolled town for a change, because you've always rolled scum against me in our previous games together.

@RadiantCowbells I hope you rolled town for a change, because you've always rolled scum against me in our previous games together.

I've literally been wanting to play a game with town!you for like

months

.

@DoubthingThomas, you seem to find all of the above posts scummy/wolfy, even though you know I have played a lot with Auro, and with RadiantCowbells somewhat as well. Can you explain why they are such wolfy posts from your point of view?

[volxen]

VOTE: Auro

Let me guess, you rolled scum like you do in 95%+ plus of your games?

@RadiantCowbells I hope you rolled town for a change, because you've always rolled scum against me in our previous games together.

@RadiantCowbells I hope you rolled town for a change, because you've always rolled scum against me in our previous games together.

I've literally been wanting to play a game with town!you for like

months

.

@DoubthingThomas, you seem to find all of the above posts scummy/wolfy, even though you know I have played a lot with Auro, and with RadiantCowbells somewhat as well. Can you explain why they are such wolfy posts from your point of view?

Objective Fact Man Here.

Objective Fact 1 is that, in what world should I have known you, auro, and radiantcowbells play with each other a lot before i pointed out those posts you made were scummy?

Objective Fact 2 is that, I said I personally find talking about how "Hope XXX is a YYY alignment" is of little value for solving and I associate it with scums, a read made before i was told about your "meta"

And what about the possibility that it was town!me making a joke in jest towards Auro, because we play a lot together and he does, in fact, roll scum fairly often? I agree with you that such a joke doesn't help to solve the game, but it's also RVS and an early stage of the game, so I'm curious why you immediately jump to the conclusion that it's likely to be scum-indicative behavior.

[volxen]

VOTE: Auro

Let me guess, you rolled scum like you do in 95%+ plus of your games?

@RadiantCowbells I hope you rolled town for a change, because you've always rolled scum against me in our previous games together.

@RadiantCowbells I hope you rolled town for a change, because you've always rolled scum against me in our previous games together.

I've literally been wanting to play a game with town!you for like

months

.

@DoubthingThomas, you seem to find all of the above posts scummy/wolfy, even though you know I have played a lot with Auro, and with RadiantCowbells somewhat as well. Can you explain why they are such wolfy posts from your point of view?

Objective Fact Man Here.

Objective Fact 1 is that, in what world should I have known you, auro, and radiantcowbells play with each other a lot before i pointed out those posts you made were scummy?

Objective Fact 2 is that, I said I personally find talking about how "Hope XXX is a YYY alignment" is of little value for solving and I associate it with scums, a read made before i was told about your "meta"

And what about the possibility that it was town!me making a joke in jest towards Auro, because we play a lot together and he does, in fact, roll scum fairly often? I agree with you that such a joke doesn't help to solve the game, but it's also RVS and an early stage of the game, so I'm curious why you immediately jump to the conclusion that it's likely to be scum-indicative behavior.

my vote was also placed pretty early in the game and as you agreed, your posts "doesn't help to solve the game" so i voted you

you think just because you posted that in rvs i should be forbidden from voting you?

or does it make sense for me to vote you and start generating content?

I agreed with you that making jokes during RVS doesn't help to solve the game, but I also don't think doing so is necessarily scum-indicative behavior either, especially during RVS. Which is why I asked you why you jumped to the conclusion that it was scummy behavior. I never said that you should be "forbidden" from voting for me.

So if I understand correctly, you are now hard scumreading RadiantCowbells, and that is because you feel that he is posting differently here compared to your last game with him?

[volxen]

UNVOTE:

[volxen]

When I voted you up, you mentioned you were in the airport. I understood your situation, that's not a reaction that I was expecting. Then, when Clemency voted you up for pressure, once again, it was only then when you said you felt Clemency's push was unjustified. Regarding the other "2 rvs votes", the first was indeed an rvs vote without any clues, but by the time Volxen voted you, he was already suspecting you, at least that's what I got from his post saying "let me guess, you flipped scum like you always do 95% of the games", I didn't really take it as an random vote. I took into account what he said and then I proceeded to vote you up to see if you'd react as scum or as town. Volxen claiming he has played games with you before and he was always in your scum games, wouldn't it make sense for me to push you to help him town read you or not? After all, he has the most experience with you. Is my logic flawed?

So, you took my comment about Auro rolling scum 95%+ of the time at literal face value? Come on, I didn't literally mean that he rolls scum that often... no one rolls scum that often. It's an inside joke between Auro and I, because he does seem to roll scum more often than the usual 20%-25%. Auro and I play a lot together, and we hydra together on the Michael Scott account, so I know him well enough to make that kind of a joke. I do find it suspect that you are claiming to have taken my joke vote at face value and decided that me voting for Auro was a good reason for you to hop onto his wagon.

In any case, you are saying you also voted for Auro to see if he would react as scum or town. Do you feel you accomplished that goal?

And if you find it sketchy that Auro said “I rolled town” in his first post, do you also find it sketchy that I said that I hope RadiantCowbells rolled town and that I’ve been wanting to play a game with town!RC for months now?

[volxen]

VOTE: scum reading

[volxen]

officially town reading scum reading now i thinkkk

Why are you townreading him? His reasoning for following me onto the Auro wagon is shaky at best.

[volxen]

why is town you more interested in getting me to redact my townreads than do something about the fact that i'm at l-1?

Why would you even talk about the fact that you are at L-1 when you are self-voting? You wouldn't be at L-1 if you weren't self-voting. And I'm not trying to get you to redact your townread, I want to understand why you are townreading him.

[volxen]

What's your read on Fusco?

Volxen have you rolled scum yet

If so link

Yes

Open 735: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=77119
Newbie 1900: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=77781
Open 740: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=77755
Newbie 1905: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=77949
Micro 842 (on The Great Wall hydra): https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=78192

[volxen]

I'm liking GrandWazoo for town.

Volxen, what's your read on me?

For now, I townread you. You are more familiar with me than anyone here, and if I think if you were scum, you would probably try to capitalize on the fact that I haven't posted much to try and scumpaint me. For example, you might have linked to Newbie 1900 (Robocalypse), and used meta from that game to try and make a case for scum!Volxen. The fact that you haven't jumped at the opportunity to shade me over not posting a lot yet is at least somewhat town-indicative for you.

By the way, what are your thoughts on scum reading? I disagree with RC on him being "locktown". I still think it was shady how he followed me onto your wagon just because I said "Auro rolls scum 95%+ of the time", and I find his reasoning that he wanted to "pressure" you suspect.

[volxen]

By the way @Shoshin, you have played with me before. Auro and I were the Michael Scott hydra in Starcraft 2 Mafia. We tried to stop you and The Worst from getting lynched on day one in that game.

[volxen]

Read on me volxen?

I've never played with town!you before, but I remember in Open 741: Red Flag (before I replaced out), where I was town and you were scum, you immediately townlocked me at the beginning of the game and defended me when I was being heavily accused of being scum, and I was primarily being accused of being scum because of lack of posting. As far as I remember you never re-evaluated your "read" of my slot in that game, at least not before I replaced out. So I think it's believable that town!you would have some skepticism of my slot, since you've seen me "powertown" in other games.

For now I townread you because I find your skepticism believable, but I also think that town!you should eventually have me as locktown once I have had the chance to post more, because I don't believe that town!you would continue to incorrectly scumread me for a prolonged period of time.

[volxen]

For now, I townread you. You are more familiar with me than anyone here, and if I think if you were scum, you would probably try to capitalize on the fact that I haven't posted much to try and scumpaint me. For example, you might have linked to Newbie 1900 (Robocalypse), and used meta from that game to try and make a case for scum!Volxen. The fact that you haven't jumped at the opportunity to shade me over not posting a lot yet is at least somewhat town-indicative for you.

Hmm. I expected you to respond with a hard null, since you know my scum game and also know it's easily within my range to defend you as scum when I know you can obvtown later as town. Sorry Volx, but your read on me feels a bit made-up :$

I also said that I townread you for now, not that I have you as locktown. Why are you questioning my preliminary townread on you, but you aren't questioning the others who have listed you as a strong townread or even locktown? You're basically suggesting that I shouldn't be able to have any sort of read of you at this stage of the game.

I'm aware it's within your scumrange to defend me, but I don't think that's necessarily what you would do if you were scum here, especially since this is a nightless game and the only way that scum!you could take me out of the game would be to get me lynched.

[volxen]

read on me volxen?

I thought the way you jumped on me and started pushing me for making comments like "Auro rolls scum 95%+ of the time" and "I've been wanting to play with town!RC for months" was suspect, especially how you kept double downing on this push even as Auro repeatedly told you that I've made posts like that as town before. I'm not suggesting you should have been townreading me over those posts, but I do have my doubts that town!you would feel that strongly that those posts were scum-indicative. I'm scumreading you at the moment.

That being said, I think the way Fuscosco followed you onto my wagon was even worse than your initial push on me.

Can you explain why Auro is your top townread?

[volxen]

@RC, you've been switching back-and-forth a lot between DoubtingThomas, Clemency, and GrandWazoo. Why is GrandWazoo your most confident scumread at the moment?

[volxen]

A townread from you is different from a townread from other slots, Volx.
I'm not suggesting you shouldn't have a read on me yet - I'm saying I didn't expect that read from you given your history with me (for example, look at FTL where you had me as potential scum even after I exhibited indirect knowledge of the leader).

The second paragraph makes sense.

The idea being that I think that scum!you would recognize the threat of an obvtown and unlynchable Volxen in the mid game and late game. Even though it might take me a while to catch onto you if you are scum, once I did it would be hard for you to deal with me if you couldn't take me out of the game, considering our history together. You did after all make the comment to me on Discord after Starcraft 2 ended that you wouldn't want to have to deal with a town!Volxen that was 100% locked onto you as scum, especially if I was unkillable.

So I definitely think there's the argument to be made that scum!you wouldn't want me around for the mid game or the late game, because you know me well enough to know that there's usually a certain amount of buildup and momentum required before I get to "obvtown" status, and that doesn't necessarily happen for me on day one. So, since I haven't posted a lot yet, I think scum!you would probably be inclined to try and use meta from some of my scum games (especially Newbie 1900) to argue that the fact that I haven't posted a lot yet means I'm more likely to be scum. I don't think that scum!you would want to wait until the mid or late game to start pushing me, because you know the longer that I stay in the game, the greater the likelihood that I will be able to establish myself as obvtown and thus become unlynchable.

[volxen]

Posts were Fuscosco is scumreading me:

Do talk about volxen, RC.

Like, is this performance normal for his, in regards to strength and confidence?

Thats actually a fair vote, atp

VOTE: volxen

Do u object on principle or do you think he has wolf equity

I think its a weak showing from volx.

toying with volxen scum, he seems less invested in this game than I would expect him to be and there's not really any smoking guns. still think the reasons given to scumread him were trash.

yuuuss

Posts were Fuscosco is townreading me:

@RadiantCowbells I hope you rolled town for a change, because you've always rolled scum against me in our previous games together.

holy shit volx can be town for d1

newbishly tryhard and earnest. in a non-insulting way. I like it, pls no hate for my concise choice of words, he is straight out.


if you've spent any significant time playing as an SC or IC in newbies you'll see it......

Okay, off cuff here, at post


Shoshin, Irre,

Volx

RC
ScumRead, DT, Auro
Gazoo
Clem, Demon

he's looking too hard at small things, I feel.

VOTE: Auro
Let me guess, you rolled scum like you do in 95%+ plus of your games?

I've literally been wanting to play a game with town!you for like

months

.

- New to site: who doesnt have an alt.
- happy to see rc
- Uses words like literally in the casual sense.

A well-to-do player who has [an undisclosed level of experience at mafia] limited onsite experience.

So, you took my comment about Auro rolling scum 95%+ of the time at literal face value? Come on, I didn't literally mean that he rolls scum that often... no one rolls scum that often. It's an inside joke between Auro and I

[redacted]

In any case, you are saying you also voted for Auro to see if he would react as scum or town. Do you feel you accomplished that goal?

Why would you even talk about the fact that you are at L-1 when you are self-voting? You wouldn't be at L-1 if you weren't self-voting. And I'm not trying to get you to redact your townread, I want to understand why you are townreading him.

Obviously he wouldnt be at l-1. pointing it out feels very new-ish to the game. his focus is on combing the small details instead of directly sorting. Which isn't bad, per se, but it is a symptom on being newer to the game.

By the way, what are your thoughts on scum reading? I disagree with RC on him being "locktown". I still think it was shady how he followed me onto your wagon just because I said "Auro rolls scum 95%+ of the time", and I find his reasoning that he wanted to "pressure" you suspect.

This genuinely smells of engaging in the game, in a way that helps town. New or not, I like it.

I thought the way you jumped on me and started pushing me for making comments like "Auro rolls scum 95%+ of the time" and "I've been wanting to play with town!RC for months" was suspect, especially how you kept double downing on this push even as Auro repeatedly told you that I've made posts like that as town before. I'm not suggesting you should have been townreading me over those posts, but I do have my doubts that town!you would feel that strongly that those posts were scum-indicative. I'm scumreading you at the moment.

That being said, I think the way Fuscosco followed you onto my wagon was even worse than your initial push on me.

Can you explain why Auro is your top townread?

This too. And again, Im pointing out his newishness, because framing his motivations is as or more important than his content. I firmly believe, as a tangent, that the reasons for doing something tell us a lot more than the content or context in which it occurs.

Its new town hunting, getting nervous at an attempt to pile on pressure via quickwagons -which are/were commonplace onsite-, and its consistent with the rest of the profile, most importantly.

I don't really understand your progression on me at all. To start with, I've been on this site for seven months so I'm not exactly a new player, although there are people in this game who have been on site much longer. You seem to be... townreading me for the things that you previously scumread me over. After I made the comments about "Auro rolls scum 95%+ of the time" and "I've been wanting to play with town!RC for months", DT voted for me, and you followed him onto my wagon and said that it was a "weak showing" on my behalf. Now you have cited those same exact posts as the basis for your apparent townread of my slot.

How did I jump from the person you apparently found the scummiest to now being top tier town for you, along with Irrelephant and Shoshin? Even Auro is struggling to correctly identify me as town (I apparently didn't post something that he believes I should have posted at this point), and he has told me before that I am supposedly an "easy read" for him. So I'm highly skeptical of your progression on my slot.

[volxen]

There's something specific I expect Volxen to say to me rn if he's town.

Ok Volxen didn't say the thing I expected him to :/

What was it that you expected me to say to you?

[volxen]

hey volxen you can be my best friend in this lobby instead of shoshin if you hammer

Are you claiming 100% confidence of GrandWazoo being scum? Because I'd like more to time to evaluate everyone before we end the day, I've been somewhat busy for the past few days.

[volxen]

Volxen, I didn't reply to your question on me re: Scum Reading. I expected you to pick up on my lack of response and follow up on it; but you continued to explain why you townread me. Red flag

Fair enough, I should have brought it up again and insisted that you answer it, but I could follow-up and ask you about it again as either alignment.

But I will ask you again now. What are your thoughts on Scum Reading in general?

[volxen]

So, I (a player that took a fair amount of heat on day one) am nomimated alongside two heavily townread players (Shoshin and Irrelephant). It's obvious to me what's going on here: scum wants me out of the game this day phase. That's why I am being forced to "compete" against two heavily townread players, to force me specifically out of the game.

These even-numbered day phases are alternatives to night phases in a standard game. Just like scum doesn't want a red flip during night phases, they don't want a red flip during even-numbered day phases, because this is there opportunity to force a green flip. If they are going to bus they are going to do it during an odd-numbered day when anyone can be lynched, they aren't going to waste an even-numbered day to bus when that should be used to guarantee a green flip. If someone votes for me because they think all three of {Shoshin, Irrelephant, Volxen} are town that’s one thing, but the notion of town-Shoshin, town-Irrelpehant, and scum-Volxen is illogical because its bad scum play to bus on an even-numbered day. It's even worse than giving up a nightkill in a standard game. It only makes sense for scum to nominate one of their own if said scum is already heavily townread and unlikely to be lynched among the three nominees in the first place. I was not heavily townread on day one, so it wouldn't make sense for scum!me to be nominated alongside two of the most heavily townread players, if Shoshin and Irrelephant are both in fact town.

Normally, there are three major reasons for nightkilling someone: 1) because they are suspected of being a town power role, and/or 2) because they are obvtown, and/or 3) because they have accurate reads. There are no town power roles in this game, I clearly did not establish myself as obvtown on day one, and I didn't have any scumreads that I confidently pushed on day one (I got scum vibes from Scumreading but I wasn't extremely confident of him being scum). So why was I nominated alongside two heavily townread players, as opposed to having three heavily townread players being the nominees?

Because someone very familiar with me and my meta is on the scumteam

. If the nominees were chosen based on their day one play alone, it makes zero sense for me to be chosen, because a more optimal use of today would be to force one of the heavily townread players (Shoshin, Irrelephant, Auro, or Alonzo/RadiantCowbells) out of the game. If all three members of the scumteam were unfamiliar with me and my meta, then I think that they would have chosen three out of those four listed players to guarantee that one of the strongest townread players is taken out of the game today.

But it does make sense for me to be nominated if someone who knows me and my meta very well is on the scumteam. There are only two players in this game who are very familiar with me and my meta, and they are

Auro and Irrelephant

. They are both familiar with my playstyle (especially my

town playstyle

), and the fact that I am not always consistent with my posting habits as town, and that when I am town, it often takes me a while to get to the point of being strongly townread or locktown. So if one or both of them is scum, it makes sense that they would nominate me alongside two heavily townread players and try to force me out of the game early on before I have been able to establish myself as locktown or at least strong town. And that is exactly what this nomination list is about, forcing me out of the game before I become unlynchable. And if one or both of them are scum, they both are also aware that the longer that I stay in the game, the more likely that I am to catch onto them.

Here is what I am confident of. There is no way that I would have been nominated alongside Shoshin and Irrelephant if the scumteam was entirely comprised of people unfamiliar with me and my meta.

I am convinced that at least one of {Auro, Irrelephant} is scum based on me being one of the nominees

. Both are very familiar with me and my meta, but out of the two of them Auro has much more firsthand experience with me due to us hydraing together.

VOTE: Irrelephant11

[volxen]

VOTE: Irrelephant11

[volxen]

@mod I had already voted for Irrelephant11, but it looks like that was missed in the vote count so I voted again.

~thanks, fixed
ejj~

[volxen]

I read the big bold parts. I'm gonna borrow that tactic, good way to make sure the important bits get read.

I was hoping everyone would read all of it...

[volxen]

That was a good post.
I actually don't want to lynch Volxen.

Spoiler:

I didn't read it because it had more than 10 words.

I think it's entirely possible that all three of Shoshin, Irrelephant11, and I are town and that a green flip today is unavoidable. But I could see scum!Irrelephant pulling a gambit like this by including himself among the nominees if he feels confident that he can push my lynch based on my day one play, and then after I flip green he tries to argue that all of the nominees (including him) are town to get himself falsely locked in as town.

But like I said, I am convinced that one of {Auro, Irrelephant} is scum. So I want to lynch Irrelephant today, because either he flips red, or if he flips green then I know that Auro is scum and I can push him on day 3 (they could be scum together, but Auro becomes confscum to me if Irrelephant flips green). Additionally, I seriously don't think scum would be bold enough to nominate

TWO

of their own, so if we lynch Irrelephant today and he flips red, I will have Shoshin as near locktown based on that alone.

[volxen]

I have Alozno(RadiantCowbells) as 100% locktown now due to the way that RC replaced out. His frustration with GrandWazoo and the game in general seemed genuine, and there is no reason for him to replace out like that as scum after successfully pushing through his first mislynch. So I consider his slot confirmed town at this point.

With that in mind, I believe that a large part of scum’s strategy on day one was to try and discredit and antagonize town!RC. DoubtingThomas and Clemency spent most of day one doing just that, and throughout most of day one or both of them were voting for RC:

What a strong start

Clemenc‬y seems to be ruffling his feathers.

DoubtingThomas and RadiantCowbells are staring at each other intensely.

Hurry up my dearies
Let the feathers fly
Let the fun begin!

Vote Count 1.5

DoubtingThomas:

(2) Auro, RadiantCowbells

RadiantCowbells:

(2)

DoubtingThomas, Clemenc‬y

volxen:

(1) Fuscosco

scum reading:

(1) Irrelephant11

Irrelephant11:

(1) Shoshin

Not Voting:

Demonlord, ‪GrandWazoo‬‬‬‬, volxen, scum reading

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-12 18:02:08)

It’s still early, but it seems the audience has already found their favorite.
Let’s take a closer look at the Blue Orpington chicken, Shoshin, one of last season’s winners and according to our audience, the most likely chicken to win this round as well!

Spoiler:

With that incredible number of feathers and powerful muscles, no wonder no one was able to beat her last round.
She’s standing in the middle of the arena proudly and looking at the others with a challenging spark in her eye. No other contestant has dared to approach her yet!
Trully a magnificent creature.

Vote Count 1.6

RadiantCowbells

:

(3)

DoubtingThomas, Clemenc‬y

, GrandWazoo

DoubtingThomas:

(1) Auro

volxen:

(1) Fuscosco

scum reading:

(1) Irrelephant11

Irrelephant11:

(1) Shoshin

Clemenc‬y:

(1) RadiantCowbells

Not Voting:

Demonlord ‬‬‬‬, volxen, scum reading

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-12 18:02:08)

It’s still early, but it seems the audience has already found their favorite.
Let’s take a closer look at the Blue Orpington chicken, Shoshin, one of last season’s winners and according to our audience, the most likely chicken to win this round as well!

Spoiler:

With that incredible number of feathers and powerful muscles, no wonder no one was able to beat her last round.
She’s standing in the middle of the arena proudly and looking at the others with a challenging spark in her eye. No other contestant has dared to approach her yet!
Trully a magnificent creature.

Vote Count 1.6

RadiantCowbells

:

(3)

DoubtingThomas, Clemenc‬y

, GrandWazoo

DoubtingThomas:

(1) Auro

volxen:

(1) Fuscosco

scum reading:

(1) Irrelephant11

Irrelephant11:

(1) Shoshin

Clemenc‬y:

(1) RadiantCowbells

Not Voting:

Demonlord ‬‬‬‬, volxen, scum reading

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-12 18:02:08)

Vote Count 1.7

RadiantCowbells

:

(5)

DoubtingThomas, Clemenc‬y

, GrandWazoo, RadiantCowbells, Fuscosco

Clemenc‬y:

(1) Irrelephant11

DoubtingThomas:

(1) Auro

Irrelephant11:

(1) Shoshin

scum reading:

(1) volxen

Not Voting:

Demonlord, scum reading

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-12 18:02:08)

Vote Count 1.7

RadiantCowbells

:

(4)

DoubtingThomas, Clemenc‬y

, GrandWazoo, RadiantCowbells

Clemenc‬y:

(2) Irrelephant11, Shoshin

DoubtingThomas:

(1) Auro

scum reading:

(1) volxen

Not Voting:

Demonlord, scum reading, Fuscosco

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-12 18:02:08)

Vote Count 1.8

Clemenc‬y:

(3) Irrelephant11, RadiantCowbells, Auro

RadiantCowbells

:

(2)

Clemenc‬y

, GrandWazoo

DoubtingThomas:

(1) Shoshin

Shoshin:

(1) DoubtingThomas

scum reading:

(1) volxen

Not Voting:

Demonlord, scum reading, Fuscosco

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-12 18:02:08)

Let’s speak with one of our regulars.

• “Hello Willson, you're with us since the business started and seem to know a lot about cockfights... Would you mind sharing some of your thoughts with us? Who do you think has the highest chances to win?”
  
• “Honestly, it’s hard to tell. The battle has only just started, but if I were to bet, it’d probably be on the Scots Grey chicken, volxen.”
  
• “Not on Shoshin?”
  
• “No, definitely not. While it’s true that she was one the last season’s winners, luck played a big part in her victory back then and I don’t think it will help her here. Besides, the chickens in this round seem a lot more aggressive than in the previous ones, so it's just unlikely for such a big and easily noticeable specimen to be able to retain their strength until the last round."
  
• “I see, that’s an interesting opinion. Thank you for your commentary.”

Vote Count 1.9

Clemenc‬y:

(3) RadiantCowbells, Auro, Irrelephant11

Shoshin:

(2) DoubtingThomas, GrandWazoo

RadiantCowbells

:

(1)

Clemenc‬y
[

DoubtingThomas:

(1) Shoshin

scum reading:

(1) volxen

Not Voting:

Demonlord, scum reading, Fuscosco

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-12 18:02:08)

Vote Count 1.10

Clemenc‬y:

(4) RadiantCowbells, Auro, Irrelephant11, scum reading

Shoshin:

(2) DoubtingThomas, GrandWazoo

RadiantCowbells

:

(1)

Clemenc‬y

DoubtingThomas:

(1) Shoshin

scum reading:

(1) volxen

Not Voting:

Demonlord, Fuscosco

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-12 18:02:08)

Vote Count 1.11

Clemenc‬y:

(3) Auro, Irrelephant11, scum reading

RadiantCowbells

:

(2)

Clemenc‬y, DoubtingThomas

DoubtingThomas:

(2) Shoshin, RadiantCowbells

Shoshin:

(1) GrandWazoo

scum reading:

(1) volxen

Not Voting:

Demonlord, Fuscosco

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-12 18:02:08)

Vote Count 1.12

GrandWazoo:

(4) RadiantCowbells, Irrelephant11, scum reading, Auro

RadiantCowbells

:

(3)

Clemenc‬y, DoubtingThomas

, GrandWazoo

DoubtingThomas:

(1) Shoshin

scum reading:

(1) volxen

Not Voting:

Demonlord, Fuscosco

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-12 18:02:08)

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-12 18:02:08)

[/color][/area][/quote]

Vote Count 1.12

GrandWazoo:

(5) RadiantCowbells, Irrelephant11, Auro, scum reading, Clemency

RadiantCowbells

:

(2)

DoubtingThomas

, GrandWazoo

DoubtingThomas:

(1) Shoshin

scum reading:

(1) volxen

Not Voting:

[Demonlord], Fuscosco

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-12 18:02:08)

~It's time for a commercial break.
Stay tuned, we'll be right back with even more exciting battles!~

Vote Count 1.13

RadiantCowbells

:

(3)

DoubtingThomas

, GrandWazoo,

Clemency

DoubtingThomas:

(3) Shoshin, RadiantCowbells, Auro

GrandWazoo:

(2) Irrelephant11, scum reading

scum reading:

(1) volxen

Not Voting:

[Demonlord], Fuscosco

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-12 18:02:08)

~commercial break~

Vote Count 1.14

GrandWazoo:

(3) Irrelephant11, scum reading, RadiantCowbells

RadiantCowbells

:

(2) GrandWazoo,

Clemency

DoubtingThomas:

(1) Auro

scum reading:

(1) volxen

Fuscosco:

(1) Shoshin

Shoshin:

(1) DoubtingThomas

Not Voting:

[Demonlord], Fuscosco

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-12 18:02:08)

Vote Count 1.15

GrandWazoo:

(5) Irrelephant11, scum reading, RadiantCowbells, Auro, Shoshin

RadiantCowbells

:

(2) GrandWazoo,

Clemency

Fuscosco:

(1) DoubtingThomas

scum reading:

(1) volxen

Not Voting:

[Demonlord], Fuscosco

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-12 18:02:08)

Vote Count 1.16

GrandWazoo:

(4) Irrelephant11, scum reading, RadiantCowbells, Auro

RadiantCowbells

:

(3) GrandWazoo,

Clemency, DoubtingThomas

scum reading:

(1) volxen

Clemency:

(1) Shoshin

Not Voting:

[Demonlord], Fuscosco

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-12 18:02:08)

Vote Count 1.17

GrandWazoo:

(4) Irrelephant11, scum reading, RadiantCowbells, Auro

RadiantCowbells

:

(3) GrandWazoo,

Clemency, DoubtingThomas

scum reading:

(1) volxen

Clemency:

(1) Shoshin

Not Voting:

[Demonlord], Fuscosco

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-12 18:02:08)

Placing it here for convenience, there were no vote changes since the last VC.

• [*]“Mr. Host, Mr. Host, we have a problem!”
  [*]“What? Don’t you see I’m doing something?”
  [*]“One of the contestants has been eliminated!”
  [*]“WHAT?! Weren’t they supposed to be separated during commercial breaks? How the fuck did it happen?“
  [*]“I don’t know, no one was there at the time. The chickens must have somehow managed to squeeze their heads through the bars and pecked the other one to death.”
  [*]“What a fcking screw up, that’s so anticlimactic. The director is gonna be pissed. “
  [*]“I’m sorry, I’m so sorry.”

Vote Count 1.18

GrandWazoo: (6) Irrelephant11, scum reading, RadiantCowbells, Auro, Fuscosco, Shoshin HAMMER

RadiantCowbells

:

(3) GrandWazoo,

Clemency, DoubtingThomas

scum reading:

(1) volxen

Not Voting:

[Demonlord]

Majority has been reached.

GrandWazoo has been lynched, they were a

Spoiler:

Vanilla Townie!

Break 1 starts now and ends in (expired on 2019-03-09 02:45:28).
Break-skip requests will not be accepted till demonlord’s slot is filled.

[volxen]

So reads wise this is what I am the most confident about:

A)

At least one of {Auro, Irrelephant} is scum

due to me nominated against two heavily townread players (Shoshin and Irrelephant), and this kind of scum play only makes sense coming from someone who is very familiar with my meta (Auro and/or Irrelephant).

B)

At least one of {DoubtingThomas, Clemency} is scum

due to the fact that they both spent most of day one antagonizing and trying to discredit RadiantCowbells (who I have as locktown due to the way in which he replaced out), and throughout most of the day one or both of them were voting for him, with both of them voting for him at the end of the day.

Since there is a very high likelihood of a town lynch today, I don't think we should end the day early. Regardless of who is lynched today, I want to have ample time to thoroughly sort between both {Auro, Irrelephant} and {DoubtingThomas, Clemency}, as I am convinced beyond any doubt that there is scum among both groups.

[volxen]

His frustration with GrandWazoo and the game in general seemed genuine

AtE is always NAI

Vedith this isn't just about "AtE", it's about looking at RC's replace out in the context of the game state at the end of day one. RC is known as an excellent scum player. If he was scum he just pulled off his first mislynch against GrandWazoo, and even though he was wrong he wouldn't have really looked that bad for leading the wagon on GrandWazoo due to how GW played on day one. There is literally ZERO reason for scum!RC to replace out in the manner that he did after getting GW mislynched.

On the other hand, look at it from the perspective of town!RC. He's nearly 100% confident that GW is scum because of his play, and because GW wrote posts (from RC's perspective) that looked like he

KNEW

RC was town, i.e. RC felt that GW wrote posts that looked like he had scum knowledge and knew his alignment because of that. Then it turns out that GW was town, and RC gets annoyed because in his opinion, GW was writing his posts as if he KNEW RC was town, but at the same time was pushing him as a scumread and voting for him. So RC incorrectly locked in GW as scum, when in reality there was just an inadvertent disconnect between how GW was writing his posts (like he KNEW RC was town) and what he was actually doing (pushing RC as a scumread and voting for him). So RC got annoyed over that and replaced out, because he basically felt like GW was responsible for his own mislynch.

[volxen]

i've

been

in games where rc replaces out as scum like this

as scum with him, that is

Can you link to said games?

[volxen]

ignore that point but all i'm saying is rc replaces out a bunch

And I'm saying that in the context of this game, the way he replaced out only makes sense if he is town.

In any case, I said that I was confident that

at least one

of you or DoubtingThomas is scum, not that you are both necessarily scum together. Do you not see a world where DoubtingThomas is scum?

[volxen]

but anyone can be scum
i'm never 100% on anyone

Alright so you don't agree with me that Alonzo/RadiantCowbells should be treated as a locktown slot, but are you actually still scumreading that slot? If so, why? Doesn't all of RC's day one play make sense from a town point of view?

Why do you find DoubtingThomas towny?

[volxen]

volxen, i like your input so far. I think most of them makes sense. However, one thing I disagree with is that you think RC (who I now think is most likely town) being town implies that either me or clemency is scum.

RC's "play" makes sense as town, in hindsight, however, the way he treated your slot to attack me/clemency did not seem like a move based on good faith. RC was my strong scum at the time, hence my vote, and he's a strong scum players, so he needed all the pressure I could possibly give on him.

We can talk about how either my or clemency's push on RC was scummy, but you shouldn't tunnel and base your entire scum case on us based on RC's 'likely flip of town'

My reasoning behind that is because RC is known to be an extremely strong player as

both alignments

. So it makes sense that scum would want to antagonize him and try to discredit him. You have to admit, you and Clemency both fought with him essentially all of day one, and you both voted for him most of the day. I'm not going to go so far as to say that makes you and Clemency both scum, but it just seems incredibly unlikely that the two people attacking RC almost non-stop on day one are both town, because it makes sense that scum would want to attack and discredit a high-profile player like RC who is known for having an incredibly strong town game.

Beyond all of that, I don't think that all three scum were on GrandWazoo's wagon, nor do I think that all three scum were off his wagon. Which means that either one scum was on his wagon and two scum were off his wagon or the other way around.

This was the final vote count at the end of the day:

• [*]“Mr. Host, Mr. Host, we have a problem!”
  [*]“What? Don’t you see I’m doing something?”
  [*]“One of the contestants has been eliminated!”
  [*]“WHAT?! Weren’t they supposed to be separated during commercial breaks? How the fuck did it happen?“
  [*]“I don’t know, no one was there at the time. The chickens must have somehow managed to squeeze their heads through the bars and pecked the other one to death.”
  [*]“What a fcking screw up, that’s so anticlimactic. The director is gonna be pissed. “
  [*]“I’m sorry, I’m so sorry.”

Vote Count 1.18

GrandWazoo: (6) Irrelephant11, scum reading, RadiantCowbells, Auro, Fuscosco, Shoshin HAMMER

RadiantCowbells:

(3) GrandWazoo, Clemency, DoubtingThomas

scum reading:

(1) volxen

Not Voting:

[Demonlord]

Majority has been reached.

GrandWazoo has been lynched, they were a

Spoiler:

Vanilla Townie!

Break 1 starts now and ends in (expired on 2019-03-09 02:45:28).
Break-skip requests will not be accepted till demonlord’s slot is filled.

So the four living players that were not on GrandWazoo's mislynch wagon are you, Clemency, Vedith (Demonlord), and I. I know that I'm not scum and based on the way that day one played out the scenario where Vedith is scum and you and Clemency are both town seems incredibly unlikely to me.

Are you strongly townreading Clemency DT? If so, why?

[volxen]

@clemency, RC has done this as scum before, tho? Do you remember which game?

He's claiming it happened before and that he was in said game(s) with RC, but he's not willing to link to these games because it would supposedly reveal who his alt is. I'm not even sure if that is really legitimate.

[volxen]

yeah, I don't think I would be voting volxen today.

Volxen, did you say why you were not posting much d1?

No, I didn't say anything about why I didn't post that much on day one. Day one moved extremely fast, and a lot of it was RC arguing with other people, and it was very difficult for me to keep up because there was a lot of noise. I also didn't have any scumreads that I felt very certain about. It's much easier for me to keep up with the game and "town it up" when the game isn't moving at lightning speed. There's also more information for me to analyze and work with at this point in the game as well.

[volxen]

I don't have much respect for RC's town game, so no I don't think I would be pushing RC like that as scum wanting to 'antagonize' a strong town player, because I don't really believe RC is that strong of a town player.

I am not strongly town reading clemency, but i have been lightly town reading him, I also don't think him pushing RC makes him scum, as I am a town who has done the same thing. Furthermore, him fighting your "RC is locktown" statement, imo, felt like a townie dedicated to his previous stance on RC

But wouldn't it be "townier" for Clemency to

re-evaluate

his read on Alonzo/RadiantCowbells in light of the way in which he replaced out, rather than continue to maintain his scumread of that slot from day one? Objectively, Alonzo should be treated as locktown because that slot being scum simply doesn't make sense anymore. You seem to have *somewhat* re-evaluated your read of this slot, but as soon as I came out and called Alonzo/RadiantCowbells locktown Clemency attacked me for it and tried to discredit me:

alonzo's not locktown are you daft

i've

been

in games where rc replaces out as scum like this

as scum with him, that is

[volxen]

@DoubtingThomas, why is Irrelephant one of your strongest townreads? And is Auro still one of your top townreads? If so, why?

[volxen]

I don't have much respect for RC's town game, so no I don't think I would be pushing RC like that as scum wanting to 'antagonize' a strong town player, because I don't really believe RC is that strong of a town player.

I am not strongly town reading clemency, but i have been lightly town reading him, I also don't think him pushing RC makes him scum, as I am a town who has done the same thing. Furthermore, him fighting your "RC is locktown" statement, imo, felt like a townie dedicated to his previous stance on RC

But wouldn't it be "townier" for Clemency to

re-evaluate

his read on Alonzo/RadiantCowbells in light of the way in which he replaced out, rather than continue to maintain his scumread of that slot from day one? Objectively, Alonzo should be treated as locktown because that slot being scum simply doesn't make sense anymore. You seem to have *somewhat* re-evaluated your read of this slot, but as soon as I came out and called Alonzo/RadiantCowbells locktown Clemency attacked me for it and tried to discredit me:

alonzo's not locktown are you daft

i've

been

in games where rc replaces out as scum like this

as scum with him, that is

It's one of the TWTBAW reads. Hardly scums will have enough balls to double down on stuff like that. That's a part of my reason for townreading him.

Have seen too many towns play "illogically"

I don't really put a lot of stock into "too wolfy to be a wolf", because that just allows people to get away with open wolfing by incorporating it into their meta. It is wolfy for Clemency to attack me and try to discredit me for saying that Alonzo/RadiantCowbells is locktown, and that kind of play doesn't at all go against his scum meta.

[volxen]

Nvm.

I think you were a little harsh on the cowbells.

Kinda townread it tho

What are your thoughts on Clemency? He attacked and tried to discredit RadiantCowbells a lot on day one as well.

[volxen]

@Auro You are correct, Shoshin did some take heat and was not a universal consensus townread on day one. I still maintain that overall, the foursome of {Irrelphant, Auro, RadiantCowbells, Shoshin} were the four most overall townread players on day one, with you and Irrelephant being the most universal consensus townreads. So something like this:

{Auro, Irrelephant}
{RadiantCowbells, Shoshin}
...
{Volxen, Demon, Fus, Clem, DT, Scumreading}

I know I'm town. Let's entertain the notion that all of four {Auro, Irrelephant, RadiantCowbells/Alonzo, Shoshin} are town. And let’s say, just as an example, that the scumteam is something like DoubtingThomas/Clemency/Vedith (note that I don't actually think that this is the case). Now in this kind of scenario, do you really believe that I am the priority day 2 lynch for that sort of scumteam? Because from that scumteam's point of view, going based off of day one play alone, the obvious outcome is that I would be lynched rather than Shoshin or Irrelephant. Yes, I repeatedly said that I "could become obvtown and unlynchable later in the game". So what, what does that matter to people unfamiliar with my meta? The fact that I said that on day one isn't going to mean much to a scumteam that is completely unfamiliar with my meta. What's the more likely scenario, that a scumteam like DoubtingThomas/Clemency/Vedith would prioritize lynching the person that talked about becoming obvtown and unlynchable and some undefined future point in the game, or that they would prioritize getting

one of the actually strongly townread players from day one

lynched? Especially considering in said scenario, none of the members of the scumteam are very familiar with my meta?

In this scenario it would make

MUCH

more sense to select all three nominees from the foursome of {Auro, Irrelephant, RadiantCowbells/Alonzo, Shoshin} to guarantee that a strongly townread player from day one is lynched. And actually, since you and Irrelephant were the two most overall townread players on day one, the three nominees should have been specifically either {Auro, Irrelephant, RadiantCowbells/Alonzo} or {Auro, Irrelephant, Shoshin}. The latter list in particular makes a lot of sense since RadiantCowbells replaced out, so maybe taking out Alonzo wouldn’t be a priority for the scumteam. Irrelephant being a nominee but you

NOT

being a nominee is quite concerning.

With a scumteam like DoubtingThomas/Clemency/Vedith, it simply makes no sense for the three nominees to be {Volxen, Irrelephant, Shoshin}. And in general, it makes no sense with any scumteam combination of three out of {DoubtingThomas, Clemency, Vedith, Fuscosco, scumreading, Volxen} being the scumteam. If I am scum and Shoshin and Irrelephant are both town, then there is a high probability that this even-numbered day phase is wasted on me getting bused, which should take place on an odd-numbered day if it's going to happen at all. If all three of {Shoshin, Irrelephant, Volxen} are town and you are also town, then there is a high probability that this even-numbered day phase is wasted on lynching a scummy town player (me) rather than a universally townread player (Irrelephant) or a mostly townread player (Shoshin), at least going by day one play. And a scumteam that is completely unfamiliar with my meta would only have my day one play to go on when deciding whether to include me as a nominee or not.

Which is why I know for a fact that all three of you, Shoshin, and Irrelephant are not all town, because any scumteam combination in that scenario would not choose me as a nominee and skip over you.

[volxen]

And @Auro it does make sense for scum!Auro to want a nominee list like {Volxen, Shoshin, Irrelephant}, because it makes it possible for me to get taken out of the game early on without you even having to push me as a scumread. You would simply need to have all three of {Volxen, Shoshin, Irrelephant} as townreads, and then concoct some story on how you "regrettably" have to vote for me because you are less confident on your townread of me then you are on your townreads of Shoshin and Irrelephant. And it's not like pivoting to that position by the end of day 2 would be outside of your scumrange, even though right now you are saying you would vote for Irrelephant over me.

But the nomination list of {Volxen, Shoshin, Irrelephant} also certainly makes sense for scum!Irrelephant, especially since Irrelephant himself is a nominee and he is obviously not going to vote for himself. If he wants to take me out of the game, he can also have both Shoshin and I as townreads, and then claim to have "no choice" but to vote for me because he is more confident of his Shoshin townread than he is of his townread of me.

So it makes sense from both of your scum perspectives, because it allows either of you to push me without actually having to have me as a scumread.

[volxen]

@Auro, I understand your argument about why scum might intentionally choose {2 towny town players, 1 one scummy town player} as the nomination list, but I don't neccessarily agree that that is likely to come from any scumteam combination. The nomination list of {Volxen, Irrelephant, Shoshin} makes the most sense if one or more members of the scumteam are aware of my meta; it makes less sense if none of them are.

And to what end could this strategy of choosing {2 towny town players, 1 one scummy town player?} as the nominees on each even-numbered day be followed? What if town simply always lynches the one that was the "scummiest" on the previous odd-numbered day? Then none of strongly townread players would ever get taken out of the game, and scum risks losing to a strong townblock that could grow over time. This is why in a standard game in the majority of cases, scum will nightkill the obvtown players during the night phases rather than killing scummier town players just for the sake of WIFOM. The same concept applies here; the even-numbered day phases are night phases, and scum needs to make the most of them.

Yes, there is merit to the notion that if all three of the nominees are widely townread players, that they are likely all town because scum would be afraid to nominate themselves alongside two widely townread players. Even so, by nominating three widely townread players each even-numbered day phase, the worst-case scenario is that the third-most widely townread player is lynched rather than the second-most or most widely townread player. So if {townie A, townie B, townie C} are all nominated on day 2 and townie C is lynched, maybe that does result in townie A and townie B becoming locktown for the remainder of the game. Even so, scum could repeat this process by taking the third-most townread player at the time and put them up against townie A and townie B on each even-numbered day phase, to still guarantee that a mostly townread player is lynched on each even-numbered day phase. So perhaps this does lead to two confirmed town, but if scum just continues to put one scummy town player up against two towny town players, they run the risk of literally never taking out one of the top town players on an even-numbered day phase, and this allows the townblock to potentially keep growing. A townblock of three, four, or five players is worse for scum than a townblock of two players.

And if Shoshin and Irrelephant are both town and you are scum, I would argue that a nomination list of {Volxen, Irrelephant, Shoshin} benefits you the most regardless of the outcome. Going by the numbers alone it gives you a 1/3 chance of taking me out of the game early on regardless of whether you personally vote for me or not, and even if I am not lynched it would still allow you to take out one of the strongest town players (Shoshin or Irrelephant). So no matter what the outcome is, scum!Auro benefits from the outcome of day 2 in this scenario. I would also argue that from the perspective of scum!Auro, {Volxen, Irrelephant, Shoshin} are the three strongest and most threatening town players. Shoshin and Irrelephant because of their day one play (and also because of your prior experience with Irrelephant), and me because of our extensive history together.

[volxen]

Hmmm, come to think of it; what happened to the unholy amount of distrust volx had for me?

I'm more focused on {Auro, Irrelephant, Shoshin, DoubtingThomas, Clemency} at the moment. That doesn't mean that I have abandoned my suspicions of you.

[volxen]

ftmp, i think we should murk one. My gut wants to do shosin, but my notes suggest irre isa better choice. have to reconsider and review my notes. without a proper nk to consider I think we should not analyze the groups chosen by scum.

We absolutely should analyze the nominees chosen by scum, because there is a reason they chose the three nominees that they chose. This nomination list makes sense for certain scumteam combinations, and it doesn't make sense for other scumteam combinations.

[volxen]

@Auro I meant it would benefit you the most as in a nomination list of {Volxen, Irrelephant, Shoshin} is better for scum!you as opposed to an alternative nomination list, not that said nomination list would only benefit scum!you and no one else as scum. I've said repeatedly that it also makes sense from the perspective of scum!Irrelephant as well, I never claimed that the only explanation for this nomination list is that you have to be scum.

[volxen]

How come Shoshin is in your "to focus on" list? I don't see any indication of a read on her in your D2 ISO.

I don't have a definitive read on her yet, but since I am "competing" against her evaluating her slot will be a priority for me this day phase.

[volxen]

My right thumb's tendons got suddenly imflammed or some shit, it hurts real bad so I'll probably be less active for a while.

Irrelephant is hard-town for me.

Shoshin, I'd like for you to respond to my earlier question re: when I became locktown for you.

Volxen being a nom with these two is interesting, and I seriously doubt scum!Volx would nominate himself along with these two especially when he's being slightly scumread already.

@Volx, I typed up a response to your post but the thread got locked. However a TL;Dr:
1. Following up would be mostly NAI for you, but not doing so is likelier scum.
2.

SR reminds me of Pintu from SC2. Would you agree?

Also, I think RC's slot is town.

@Auro, You are referring to this? I take it you meant that he is like Pint in the sense that he isn't really making any pushes of his own? I guess, but his playstyle is certainly a lot different from Pint.

[volxen]

@Auro I don't think that scum!you would "test the waters" and keep town!me around just to see if I could catch you, because you wouldn't want to run the risk of me disrupting your 100% win rate as scum . But seriously, I think you make optimal plays as scum, and you would take me out as soon as you became convinced that that was the optimal play for you.

[volxen]

@Auro, Regarding your theory on the reasoning behind the nomination list being {2 towny town players, 1 scummy town player} (based on day one play at least), why do you think the nomination list wasn't {Auro, Irrelephant, Volxen} or perhaps {Auro, Shoshin, Volxen}? If you and I are both town, why doesn't scum force you and I to compete against each other, considering our day one interactions?

[volxen]

If scum wanted to guarantee a lynch on a particular player, they would have nominated Auro, RC, & the player to be lynched. If scum Auro wants Volx dead, he nominates himself & RC along with Volx. The fact he didn't points strongly to town Auro. It also means scum are sloppy & clueless, or they're trying to create chaos with these picks.

Volx is biting the bait by turning on Auro. We need to avoid this, Volx. Do you really think Auro plays this game as scum? It's highly unlikely he's scum trying to remove you from the game.

The nominations point to the same people who were likely scum before the nominations: DT, Clemency, Vedith, Fusco, with an off chance it's Irrelephant.

Shoshin literally everything is within Auro's scumrange, as scum he generates WIFOM on top of WIFOM on top of WIFOM. That's why he is a genuinely hard player to read in spite of the fact that we hydra a lot together. You make somewhat of a fair point here, but your assertion that the nomination list would be {Auro, Alonzo, Volxen} if the goal was to specifically take me out of the game assumes that everyone would have Alonzo as 100% locktown based on RC's replace out (scum knew that Alonzo was replacing into RC's slot during the break phase). I have Alonzo as locktown for that reason, but that would be a big assumption for the scumteam to make to assume that Alonzo would be 100% lynch proof. If RC were still in the game I would agree with you more, but it makes sense to include at least two towny players from day one

that are still in the game

in the nomination list, and Alonzo replacing RC is going to affect the viability of him being included in the nomination list or not.

I still maintain that the intention of the {Volxen, Irrelephant, Shoshin} nomination list is to take me specifically out of the game, even though scum may not achieve this goal.

[volxen]

and I frankly find that suspicious.

Why you? Are you dangerous?

Irrelephant and Auro are both very familiar with my town game and meta, so yes I would arguably be a threat to either scum!Irrelephant or scum!Auro.

[volxen]

@Irrelephant even if you disagree with my assertion that there is at least one person on the scumteam who is very familiar with me and my meta, surely you can see why I would come to that conclusion based on the nomination list. Consider how it looks from my point of view.

If the goal was to specifically have a nomination list, based on day one play, of {2 towny town players, 1 scummy town player}, why was I chosen over any of {DoubtingThomas, Clemency, Fuscosco, Scumreading, Vedith} for the third nominee?

[volxen]

And think if your placement as 'filling a space'

Let me ask you this: what do you think scum hopes to achieve with this "night phase"? Do you think they are completely indifferent to who gets "nightkilled"? Or do you think they have a specific goal in mind?

Nightkills in a traditional game almost always have a specific purpose in mind. It's the same here.

[volxen]

Please, lets pretend you are town and you are put on that list just to keep people from killing a third, undesirable option. Then what volx? Pretend you arent special. When is scum that wants to kill sho/irre?


Like this is why I said 'don't analyse the list composition'.

@Fuscosco, My point with asking that question was essentially this: If the nomination list was formed based on

day one play alone and nothing else

, why would I be a more desirable nightkill than all of {DoubtingThomas, Clemency, Vedith, Fuscosco, Scumreading}? Objectively I shouldn't be a more desirable nightkill than all of them based on day one play alone, because I didn't do much during day one.

[volxen]

But you didn't vote before knowing I'd sheep.
So your vote would be L3?

Voting someone indicates you think either Scum or the best lynch.

Otherwise it's just fence sitting.

This is quite ironic considering you are not voting yourself but are instead "relying" on Auro to lead you onto a wagon. In any case, why are you so anxious to get Auro to place a vote down? Right now we are effectively in night phase, and it is extremely likely that today's lynch will be a town lynch. Voting early right now isn't really all that important, considering the low probability of this night phase actually resulting in a scum lynch.

[volxen]

What are your thoughts on Clemency? He attacked and tried to discredit RadiantCowbells a lot on day one as well.

We both know town!Clemency is capable of bad tunnels - remember Lovers and Losers?
What makes it likelier Clem is scum for the RC push?

Clemency does scummy things as both alignments. I'm not going to default to townreading him just because it's possible that his antagonizing and discrediting of RC could have come from town!him, because I don't think that's the more likely scenario. Especially since he immediately attacked me when I said that Alonzo is locktown.

[volxen]

@Shoshin, I'm not understanding why you are exercising so much caution with your Irrelephant read but you have essentially locked down Auro as an "easy" townread. I get that you have a lot of experience with Irrelephant and you are very familiar with his scumgame whereas this is basically your first game ever with Auro, but I'm telling you that Auro is also an incredibly strong scum player (he has a 100% scum win rate) like Irrelephant is, and me saying this doesn't even seem to phase you in the slightest. Why are you so confident that Auro is locktown? Because it sounds like you are as confident about Auro being locktown as you are about Alonzo being locktown, and I'm not understanding why that is.

[volxen]

@Shoshin and @Irrelephant, if all three of us are in fact town, I feel like the primary objective with this nomination list is to take me out of the game, and the secondary or backup objective with it is to take out Shoshin. I don't think that scum (regardless of whether Irrelephant is scum or not) actually expects Irrelephant to be nightkilled here, because day one was something like this:

{Irrelephant, Auro}
{Shoshin, RadiantCowbells}
...
{everyone else}

The point being that the three of us were all at different tiers in terms of how we were read on day one. Irrelephant was a top-tier townread on day one, Shoshin was a second-tier townread on day one, and I wasn't really townread heavily at all on day one. Which is why I think Irrelephant is not really a true target here, and scum assumed that he is going to make it to day 3.

Do you both agree with me at least insofar as that being the objective of this nomination list?

[volxen]

I think volxen’s insistence and unwillingness to back down from chaining my & Auro’s lynches here (i think we’re both town, and though I haven’t meta’d Auro recently I’ve hydra’d with him and I do feel I am a better scum player than him and wouldn’t be townreading him as strongly as I am now if he were scum; I’ll probably metadive his more recent games to be sure tho because his apparent high win rate is interesting) is not towny. But volxen’s heavy analysis feels like town!him so idk what to do there yet

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10550875
Scum!Volxen's capable of faking heavy analysis.
Guess how I caught him in this game - his resistance to re-evaluate his push on me.
Give it a read, and tell me what you think.

This is not even accurate. I never said I was 100% certain of you being scum and that I won't be re-evaluating you. And even if you disagree with me regarding my analysis of this nomination list, if you look at things objectively you should understand why this nomination list looks like it could have been chosen by someone familiar with my meta, as opposed to this competing theory that I was chosen simply because I said "I can become obvtown and unlynchable later in the game" and the fact that you "endorsed" me saying that.

[volxen]

@Auro, I had posts directed to you on previous pages that I was expecting you to answer, and your first post when you come back into the thread is to piggyback off of something Irrelephant said and link to one of my scumgames just to say "Volxen is capable of faking heavy analysis as scum" without even responding to me first. I feel like you are already starting to treat me as a scumread despite previously saying that my posts were indicative of me being at least "probtown". You know for a fact that if we are both town, it should be easier for your to correctly townread me rather than the other way around, because you've told me repeatedly on Discord that I am an "easy read" for you. Whereas I have never said the same about you. And like you mentioned yourself earlier in this game, even in Follow the Leader where we were both town, I still suspected that you could be scum even with you voting for Vedith early on on day one and showing very indirect knowledge that you knew who the town leader was. You know it's normal for me to be skeptical of you.

The meta theory with respect to the nomination list makes sense, even if it is ultimately wrong. The nomination list objectively does make sense from the perspective of scum!Irrelephant or scum!Auro, but it isn't the only possible explanation. Regardless, I do feel like the objective of the nomination list is to take out either myself or Shoshin.

[volxen]

Best reason for lynching Volx today: to prevent Auro's mislynch later.

So you are going to literally advocate for my lynch based on this? I couldn't single-handedly lynch Auro even if I wanted to.

If you truly have Auro as 100% irreversible locktown, then explain that to me, because I play with him a lot and I don't find it easy to nail him down as locktown, especially on day one.

[volxen]

Wait, if I missed questions I'll read again and answer them in a bit.

Yes, I was just thinking about your skepticism - and wondering how that was consistent with your D1 townread on me I pushed you on.

I had you as a light townread on day one, not as full blown locktown. I didn't do much on day one, and I didn't have any strong reads one way or the other.

[volxen]

Volx, you need to promise me you're not going to mislynch Auro regardless of Irrel's flip.

If Irrelephant is actually nightkilled today, I can guarantee you that I won't push for Auro's lynch based on his flip alone. But I don't have Auro as locktown like you do, so I will continue to evaluate his slot.

[volxen]

Volxen have you shared a readslist this game day

The only read that I feel completely confident in at the moment is that Alonzo is 100% locktown. I think that Shoshin is probably town because it would be risky for scum!Shoshin to nominate herself, based on the tiered reads from day one that I posted earlier. The idea being that if Irrelephant is never going to be lynched today based on being a day one consensus townread, then the only way that scum!Shoshin survives is if she can get me mislynched. In other words, I don't think scum!Shoshin would insert herself into a nomination list that includes one person more widely townread than herself (Irrelephant) and one person who wasn't townread on day one (Volxen), because it's a risky play to do so.

I also find Clemency scummy for the way he attacked RC all of day one, and then attacked me when I said that Alonzo is locktown.

[volxen]

I was a bit suspicious of Scumreading on day one because of his reasoning behind joining me on the Auro wagon, but he started today off for voting for me, and the reasoning he gave for voting for me was because I was mostly silent on day one, which I can understand. Then after I started posting he unvoted for me and said he would reconsider, which shows me he is willing to re-evaluate his read on me in light of new information. Still need to see more from him though.

[volxen]

UNVOTE:

[volxen]

Why is it risky for scum!Shoshin to put herself in a middle-tier, reads-wise?
Put another way, if scum decided to put one scum on the nominations list, Shoshin is the probably the towniest (if she is scum). Wouldn’t it make sense to put the towniest scum among the nominations in hopes of lynching one of the most widely townread players (me)?
Put another way, yeah duh it’s risky to put any scum anywhere in the nominations list: why does that mean Shoshin wouldn’t do it?

And separately: how else are you reading Shoshin?

Based on day one, you were considered more towny than Shoshin. Basically what I was saying this: scum!Irrelephant survives by ensuring that either town!Shoshin or town!Volxen is nightkilled today, which has a high probability of occurring if the tiered reads of Irrelephant > Shoshin > Volxen from day one continue throughout this day phase. Whereas Scum!Shoshin's option might be just limited to getting town!Volxen nightkilled, because you are already considered more towny than she is. That's what I was getting at.

But Shoshin isn't locktown for me, and I don't know if she takes big risks as scum as this is my first game with her (technically she was in Starcraft 2 Mafia, but she said that The Worst posted 95% of their slots content). I'll need to take some time to review her day one play. One thing I really didn't like was how she hammered GrandWazoo after I said that I wanted more time to analyze the game, because up to that point I hadn't done much on day one, and I didn't want to end the day phase several days early. Shoshin even told me to "take my time", and then she hammered GrandWazoo after that, and we had I think something like three days left before the deadline. I know that RC was screaming for a hammer here, but I thought we shouldn't have ended the day phase that early. And Shoshin did push GrandWazoo's wagon fairly aggressively.

[volxen]

@Irrelephant, You are the most familiar with Shoshin here, I take it. Does she make risky plays as scum generally, or is she more conservative as scum?

[volxen]

@Irrelephant, What are your thoughts on the fact that Shoshin has 100% townlocked Auro based on his day one play alone? This is her first game ever with Auro. Do you think that town!Shoshin would be able to so confidently townlock Auro like that? I realize Auro was essentially a day one consensus townread, but I believe that Shoshin is the only person who had him as 100% locktown by the end of day one.

[volxen]

I also asked Shoshin earlier why she has Auro as locktown and she never got back to me, and I'm not sure if she explained it previously either.

[volxen]

I can also see scenarios where my original meta theory is wrong, especially if Shoshin is scum. If Shoshin is scum, I definitely think that implies that both Irrelephant and Auro are town. Irrelephant because I don't think that there are two scum nominees, and it is also my understanding that Irrelephant really dislikes busing as scum, and he also knows from our previous games that I definitely have the ability to "town it up". So I don't think that scum!Irrelephant would put himself into a position where he essentially has no choice but to bus Shoshin.

And Auro because if Shoshin and Auro are scum together, Auro would never approve of a {Irrelephant, Shoshin, Volxen} nomination list. Auro even moreso than Irrelephant is aware of what I am capable of as town, and because he and I have hydra'd together so much (most of our hydra games together have been town games), he is very aware of my thought processes and how I use logic as town. Irrelephant was a consensus townread on day one, and scum!Auro would know that I could eventually get to the point of being a consensus townread despite my day one play, and he wouldn't want to risk losing Shoshin on an even-numbered day. I think Auro realizes that it's very bad for scum for a red flip to actually occur on an even-numbered day, and he wouldn't agree to a nomination list like {Irrelephant, Shoshin, Volxen} and run the risk of Shoshin getting flipped.

So I don't think that Shoshin is scum with either of Irrelephant or Auro. If Shoshin is scum with two people who are also unfamiliar with me and my meta, then I could see how they decided on the {Irrelephant, Shoshin, Volxen} nomination list. Irrelephant because it gives her the opportunity to create WIFOM about why one of the two consensus townreads was included in the nomination list, and if she makes it through this even-numbered day phase it arguably makes her look more towny because she was a nominee, especially since the day 1 tier between us three was Irrelephant > Shoshin > Volxen, and why would scum nominate themselves if they aren't even the most townread out of the three nominees? And the third person in the nomination list was intentionally chosen to be a non-townread player on day one. Perhaps I was chosen at random from the group of {Volxen, DoubtingThomas, Clemency, Vedith, Scumreading, Fuscosco}, or maybe me saying that I could "eventually become obvtown and unlynchable" influenced their decision to some extent. Either way, if they assumed that I would continue to play on day 2 like I did on day 1, then they may have just assumed that I would be an easy mislynch, making it safe for scum!Shoshin to nominate herself alongside one consensus townread (Irrelephant) and the person to be mislynched (me). And it would be reasonable for them to assume that I would be an easy mislynch if all they were looking at was my day one play.

[volxen]

@Irrelephant It's fine to ask others for reads, but I don't believe you have shared any reads this day phase beyond thinking that Shoshin is town, so please share any other reads that you have.

I thought DoubtingThomas was scummy with the way he pushed RC on day one, but he's been a lot more reasonable today. I still think Clemency was scummy with the way he has treated both the RC/Alonzo slot as well as my slot. I'm not sure I buy Fuscosco's townread of me at the end of day one, because it was based on a false narrative that I was a new player, and this came from him after previously voting for me at the beginning of day one for having a "weak showing".

I find this post from Vedith a bit suspect:

It's a good play.
Actually, putting all 3 in would be the best option.
Sacrifice the weaker looking Scum for the game.

But you're probably right. Volxen not Scum. Probably coward Scum putting all town.

I think most of us agree it's highly unlikely that there are two or three scum among the nominees for obvious reasons, namely that it's just bad for scum to have a 2/3 or 100% chance of a red flip on an even-numbered day. Vedith could be using this post to create doubt about the two surviving nominees in future day phases. So if Irrelephant and Shoshin are both town and there are no scum among the nominees, Vedith could come back to this post and try to argue that at least one of us that survived today is scum. Or if Vedith is scum with one of Irrelephant or Shoshin, in the event that his scum nominee partner is lynched today, he could still try to argue that at least one of the two surviving nominees is likely scum as well. Considering in practice how unlikely it is for there to be more than one scum nominee, I'm not sure why he would bring this up.

And he also tried to cause doubt about RC/Alonzo being locktown when he objectively is:

His frustration with GrandWazoo and the game in general seemed genuine

AtE is always NAI

[volxen]

Okay, off cuff here, at post

Shoshin, Irre, Volx

RC
ScumRead, DT, Auro
Gazoo
Clem, Demon

Interesting that the three people Fuscosco listed as his top-tier townreads on day one are

exactly

the same as the three people on today's nomination list. Thoughts on that Irrelephant (or anyone else)?

[volxen]

@Irrelephant Have I convinced you that I'm town yet? I do think there is something to be said about it not making sense for scum!me to choose a nomination list of {Irrelephant, Shoshin, Volxen}. Aside from the fact that both you and Shoshin were much more heavily townread than me on day one, there is also the fact that both of you have a lot of experience and history together. So there's a good chance that the two of you would "double team" me (even if you both think that I am town) and vote for me today as opposed to voting for each other, and I think that two of the nominees agreeing to vote for the other nominee is going to potentially affect how other people vote. So for me to be scum in this situation, not only did I choose two players who were both much more heavily townread than me on day one as my "competitors" in this nomination list, but also two players who are probably much more likely to both vote for me rather than for each other. And if I were scum and got flipped today, there would literally be zero benefit to my remaining scumbuddies, as it would just further solidify that you and Shoshin are both town via the unlikelihood of multiple scum being among the nominees.

Do you agree with me that from a purely objective standpoint, this nomination list is much more risky and makes a lot less sense for scum!Volxen than it does for either of scum!Irrelephant or scum!Shoshin? Even something like {Auro, Shoshin, Volxen} would make more sense than {Irrelephant, Shoshin, Volxen} for scum!me to choose, because it's more likely that I could convince Auro to vote for Shoshin than you, which would mean two of the nominees agreeing to vote for Shoshin.

[volxen]

I mean my readslist should show I have you near the top of my reads

Does this mean you’ve decided I’m town? That’s sort of a weird appeal if you think I’m scum and I’d lost track of your read on me

I typed most of that message up before you posted and then saw your message as I hit preview, but I still was curious if you had me as locktown as opposed to just a townlean or townread so I left the question in. I take it I'm at least a strong townread for you.

I'm still unsure about your alignment, but I think that all three of you, Shoshin, and I should try to share as much as possible this day phase, since one of us won't be around for day three. And I think that there is at least one scum among {DoubtingThomas, Clemency, Vedith, Fuscosco}, so I agree with sorting among those four today.

[volxen]

And I think we should start here:

Okay, off cuff here, at post

Shoshin, Irre, Volx

RC
ScumRead, DT, Auro
Gazoo
Clem, Demon

Interesting that the three people Fuscosco listed as his top-tier townreads on day one are

exactly

the same as the three people on today's nomination list. Thoughts on that Irrelephant (or anyone else)?

I don't think it's a coincidence that the nomination list corresponds exactly to Fuscosco's top-tier townreads from day one.

[volxen]

Do you think that makes Fus scum or do you think scum just took his reads as pretty representative of town

That's what I'm wondering. If Fuscosco is town, why would scum use his readslist to help them form their nomination list? Especially since he is a clearly an experienced player playing on an alt (look at his join date on his profile), so presumably no one here knows who his main is. And beyond that, as I've said before I found his whole progression on me from "Volxen is scum because he had a weak showing" to then "Volxen is a top-tier townread because I think he is a new player" (when I'm not) is suspect, because his entire townread of me was based on a false narrative that he would easily know is false if he looked into me at all.

[volxen]

We move on clems slot tomorrow.

Literally played a game with him right before this he flaked as scum.

He was fairly scummy in this game in any case.

[volxen]

I mean Clemency has been scummy most of the game, but he is scummy as both alignments. Fuscosco had me as a top-tier townread on day one, when I objectively should not have been a top-tier townread for anyone on day one. Fuscosco was the only person to have me as a top-tier townread on day one, and I don't really believe his reasoning as far as how he arrived at that read on me.

[volxen]

VOTE: Shoshin

[volxen]

VOTE: Volxen

[volxen]

UNVOTE:

Wanted to see how people would react to me self-voting.

[volxen]

I have Irrelephant as locktown now. Initially, I thought that the nomination list of {Irrelephant, Shoshin, Volxen} would be less risky for scum!Irrelephant than scum!Shoshin, based on Irrelephant being a consensus townread on day one. However, taking into account the dynamics of their history together, it’s clearly the other way around in terms of risk. Shoshin and Irrelephant seem to mutually agree that Shoshin is the stronger town player out of the two. Irrelephant has been consistently townreading Shoshin throughout the entire game (despite suggesting some degree of paranoia about scum!Shoshin), and he now seems to have her as locktown. At the beginning of the day Irrelephant said he would consider sacrificing himself this day phase; Shoshin did not do the same, and in fact recently made a rather lengthy self-meta “towncasing” post to try and establish herself as the strongest town player out of us three. There seems to be a mutual understanding between the two of them that if today’s lynch comes down to Shoshin or Irrelephant, since they both believe each other to be town, that Irrelephant should take the lynch on the basis that Shoshin is the strongest town player, and, therefore, needs to be around for day 3. Shoshin has been trying to push for me to be the lynch, but at the same time is keeping Irrelephant as a backup plan by saying thins like “why should we lynch the person with the strongest towngame (Shoshin) rather than the person with the strongest scumgame (Irrelephant)?”

Taking all of this into account, the problem with scum!Irrelephant is that he really only has one option with this nomination list: get me lynched. That’s his only play here, because he’s locked himself into a position where he can’t push Shoshin due to 1) townlocking her, 2) agreeing with the notion that she is the strongest town player, and 3) previously stating that he would consider taking the lynch today. Specifically, his position appears to be that he would sacrifice himself to stop Shoshin from getting lynched, but he wouldn’t do the same to stop me from getting lynched, which makes sense due to him having Shoshin as locktown and their history together.

From the perspective of scum!Shoshin, the assumption with this nomination list is that I would be the “easy lynch” based on my day one play, and the backup plan, since Irrelephant was already townreading her, was to establish herself as the strongest town player that *needs* to be around on day 3. And taking their history into account, as long as she could get Irrelephant to townlock her, she knew that he was unlikely to fight her on this and could probably be convinced to take the lynch if it came down to her or him. Especially since Irrelephant has apparently done this before as town. So as long as she could be reasonably confident that Irrelephant would be willing to step in and sacrifice himself if she was in danger of being wagoned, then the risk of her nominating herself as scum against Irrelephant and I was relatively low. Basically plan A for scum!Shoshin is to get me mislynched, plan B is to get Irrelephant mislynched by out-towning him and getting him to agree that she is more valuable than he is going forward. I also think it’s more likely that town!Irrelephant would incorrectly townread scum!Shoshin rather than the other way around, because Shoshin seems to be much more familiar with Irrelephant’s scumgame than Irrelephant is with Shoshin’s scumgame (he commented earlier in this game that his only experience with scum!Shoshin was one game where she had a third party role).

Another difference between the two of them is that Irrelephant is familiar with my town game and Shoshin is not. Irrelephant knows what it looks like when I “town it up”, and he knows that it’s possible for me to start suddenly towning it up out of nowhere after previously being very quiet. So he knows that I am not an easy mislynch, and he certainly knows that Shoshin isn’t an easy mislynch either. The risks of nominating himself against both Shoshin and I far outweigh any possible rewards. Whereas Shoshin could reasonably expect me to be an easy mislynch based on my day one play alone, which is all she would have to go on assuming she isn’t scum with Auro.

There’s also the issue of motivation. Irrelephant was already a consensus top-tier townread on day one, and he is likely to maintain this status as long as he continues to play like he did on day one. He arguably doesn’t gain any major benefit from inserting himself into a nomination list against Shoshin and I, especially when he knows that neither of us would be an “easy mislynch”, and he doesn’t really need the perceived towncredit from being a nominee due to already being a consensus top-tier townread. Shoshin on the other hand took some heat on day one, and her being nominated and then surviving this day phase arguably makes her look more towny on subsequent days by pushing the narrative that all of the nominees were likely town. The goal here would be to use the fact that she was a nominee to get herself townlocked.

So I’m convinced that Irrelephant is town, because I don’t think that scum!Irrelephant would insert himself into a nomination list where his options are “lynch Volxen or bust”. If he is going to nominate himself, he would want to at least be reasonably confident that he could push either of the other two nominees if it came down to it. I’m

MUCH

less confident on Shoshin being town, especially since she has been suggesting that I should be lynched due to paranoia that if I survive beyond this day phase I am likely to lead a mislynch on Auro. She also played a significant role in pushing GrandWazoo’s mislynch. And I don’t find self-meta towncasing towny as its inherently self-serving.

I originally thought Irrelephant could have been scum and nominated me for meta reasons, but now I see that that was completely wrong. Irrelephant being scum literally makes zero sense at this point. So Alonzo and Irrelephant are now both locktown for me.

[volxen]

@Irrelephant, If Shoshin is somehow locktown then help me to understand why, because I’m there with you but I don’t know how to get there with Shoshin. You know her better than anyone else here, and I am 100% convinced that you are town, so explain to me why you are convinced beyond all doubt that she is town.

[volxen]

@Irrelephant, If Shoshin is somehow locktown then help me to understand why, because I’m there with you but I don’t know how to get there with Shoshin. You know her better than anyone else here, and I am 100% convinced that you are town, so explain to me why you are convinced beyond all doubt that she is town.

Help me get to locktown on Irrel. If I can do that, I'll lynch you over him in a heartbeat.

@Shoshin, My townlock of Irrelephant is based purely off of the fact that scum!Irrelephant inserting himself into a {Irrelephant, Shoshin, Volxen} nomination list is far too risky for him, as I explained at length in a previous post. It's a "mechanical read" in that sense, but it's one that I am 100% confident of. Irrelephant is never scum in this game.

If you aren't going to be the "nightkill" today, then I want to resolve your slot once and for all before this day phase ends, regardless of which one of me or Irrelephant is "nightkilled". I believe that you are capable of deep wolfing as scum, and I fully trust Irrelephant at this point, so if he tells me that he is 100% confident that you are town, that will at least help me to feel better about your slot.

I would also like to know from Irrelephant how accurate he is at reading you on average in games where you are both town.

[volxen]

@Shoshin, My townlock of Irrelephant is based purely off of the fact that scum!Irrelephant inserting himself into a {Irrelephant, Shoshin, Volxen} nomination list is far too risky for him, as I explained at length in a previous post. It's a "mechanical read" in that sense, but it's one that I am 100% confident of. Irrelephant is never scum in this game.

If you aren't going to be the "nightkill" today, then I want to resolve your slot once and for all before this day phase ends, regardless of which one of me or Irrelephant is "nightkilled". I believe that you are capable of deep wolfing as scum, and I fully trust Irrelephant at this point, so if he tells me that he is 100% confident that you are town, that will at least help me to feel better about your slot.

I would also like to know from Irrelephant how accurate he is at reading you on average in games where you are both town.

Why is nominating himself too risky for Irrel? Your previous explanation is insufficient. If you can't explain it to me in a simple sentence, the explanation is too complex to be correct and your confidence doesn't make me feel better at all. If anything, it just makes me lose faith in your ability to make sure town wins this after I'm dead.

And your paranoia that I'm scum but not Irrel doesn't make sense when your reasoning for townreading Irrel applies twice over to me. Like, it was 100x more risky for me to nominate myself than for Irrel to nominate himself, and Irrel's a stronger scum player than me to boot, meaning he's far more capable of deep wolfing than I am. Your logic is total nonsense, Volx.

If this is the level of your analysis as town, I have no confidence in your ability to win this game for town at all, no offense.

The shortened version of the explanation is that you know Irrelephant would sacrifice himself to stop you from getting lynched (as long as he was convinced that you are town), but you wouldn't do the same for him. That's why it's in fact "100x more risky" for scum!Irrelephant, because his only play here is to push me. You can push either of us.

You also confidently pushed GrandWazoo and you were wrong (if you are town).

[volxen]

@Shoshin, Why don't you have Irrelephant as locktown based on my analysis? From my point of view it's much harder to townlock you than it is to townlock Irrelephant. Which is why I have asked Irrelephant to help me with evaluating your slot.

[volxen]

I think we should hammer. volx made his points, and frankly he's already finger-gunned me so I have no qualms about voting him now to get a flip. let's continue the game. not like one if us will die tonight

@Fuscosco, What is the town motivation with this kind of post? You suggested hammering me

five days

before the deadline just because I self-voted. Why would you assume that I wanted to be hammered just because I self-voted? The scum motivation here obviously is to try and get me quickly hammered to prevent me from making further posts. Your reaction is definitely the worst (yes, pun intended if you are reading this TW, which I suspect you are since you read all of my games) reaction to my self-vote.

Also a bit curious that you said "he's already finger-gunned me so I have no qualms about voting him now to get a flip", considering out of {Shoshin, Irrelephant, Volxen}, Shoshin has by far been the most critical of your slot (calling you obvscum, etc.). And you've seemed so sure since the end of day one that I am town (at a point in time where it didn't even make sense for you to townread me), and now you're suddenly so eager to see my flip?

[volxen]

@Fuscosco, let's assume for a moment that all of {Shoshin, Irrelephant, Volxen} are town, which I think is entirely possible considering I have Irrelephant as locktown, and he is "94% confident" that Shoshin is town. Aside from myself, Shoshin is hard scumreading you. Why do you assume you will be around in lylo? Regardless of who is nightkilled today, your slot is going to be under a whole lot of scrutiny on day 3, because you have objectively done a number of scummy things in this game.

[volxen]

@Vedith, I still don't understand why you are actually scumreading me. If you are voting for me because you think all of the nominees are town that's one thing. I made a case in previous posts why inserting myself into a {Volxen, Shoshin, Irrelephant} nomination list would present far more risk to scum!me than it would to either of scum!Irrelephant or scum!Shoshin. Aside from that, I think I've been fairly towny on day two. You played with me in Follow the Leader where we were both town, so you have an idea of what I do as town. You saw how towards the end of the game I somewhat pushed COA and Auro to a lesser extent, because I had Yellowsnow as locktown and thought that one of them was scum in the event that TTTT flipped green after we hammered him. I was ultimately wrong about that and TTTT did turn out to be scum, but I pushed on them because I didn't have either of them as locktown. Why are you scumreading me simply because I was critical of some of your posts, when you know that I do that as town? It's like you didn't even consider the possibility of me being town and wrong about you, you just jumped straight to a scumread based on that alone.

[volxen]

@Fuscosco, To completely ignore the nomination list and act as if nothing can be inferred from it is ridiculous. At a minimum, I think it's a very productive exercise to look at each nominee, and try to make reasonable deductions along the lines of "if nominee X is scum, what is there motivation in self-nominating? Would the rewards of self-nominating outweigh the risks from their pov?" Because there are definitely people who are more likely to self-nominate as scum compared to others, because some people would be facing a lot of risk if they self-nominated as scum. Of course we have look at more than "Would player X self-nominate as scum", because the real question is "Would player X self-nominate themselves against players Y and Z as scum". For example, I explained in previous posts that there is some degree of risk for all of {Volxen, Irrelephant, Shoshin} to self-nominate as scum, with Shoshin having the least risk from my point of view. But because I now have Irrelephant as locktown, and he seems to mostly be convinced that Shoshin is town, there is a good chance that all three of us are town. Which makes sense if Shoshin's belief that the entire scumteam is among {Fuscosco, DoubtingThomas, Clemency, Vedith} is true, because it would be highly risky for any of those four to self-nominate.

So if we can be reasonably confident that none of us would self-nominate, especially against each other, then that means that there is a high likelihood that the two surviving nominees are town, which narrows down the pool for finding scum. So it's not a pointless exercise to use the nomination list to try and sort people, especially if we can confirm people as town with reasonable confidence based on it being too risky for them to self-nominate as scum, especially when there is a good chance that they wouldn't be able to get one of the other two nominees nightkilled.

[volxen]

The overall point being that it's extremely unlikely for more than one nominee to ever be scum, so if a nominee is nightkilled and flips red, the other two surviving nominees are almost certainly town. If the nightkilled nominee flips green, at least one of the surviving two nominees is almost certainly town. But beyond that, someone on the scumteam is only ever going to self-nominate if they can reasonably come to the conclusion that the rewards of doing so greatly outweigh the risks. If that isn't the case, then that means that all three of the nominees are town. If scum continues to nominate only townies on each even-numbered day phase because it's too risky for any of them to self-nominate, then it becomes easier and easier to weed out the scum via POE.

[volxen]

@Fuscosco, Who do you

actually

think is scum? You seem to want me gone but yet you think I'm town. Should I take that to mean that you strongly townread all three of {Volxen, Irrelephant, Shoshin}?

[volxen]

I think the only people who could be scum in today's lynch is shoshin and volx, and then not really.

And who do you think is more likely to be scum between Shoshin and I?

[volxen]

So..... you want to nightkill the person you are more confident on being town (me) under the premise that I'm going to "screw you over" and somehow ruin lylo for you, because you are already 100% confident that you are going to be in lylo in the first place?

[volxen]

@Irrelephant, Do you think that scum!Shoshin would be able to reasonably predict that you would be willing to sacrifice yourself in order to stop her from getting nightkilled, as long as she could convince you that she is town? I'm just curious if you think that's a reasonable thought process to come from scum!Shoshin based on your history together, because if it is then it substantially reduces her risk in self-nominating as scum.

[volxen]

VOTE: Irrelephant11

[volxen]

I mean you've been self-voting for a long time, you've told me repeatedly that you are confident that Shoshin is town, and you didn't want her to be lynched today. What else would you have me do Irrelephant?

[volxen]

I mean you've been self-voting for a long time, you've told me repeatedly that you are confident that Shoshin is town, and you didn't want her to be lynched today. What else would you have me do Irrelephant?

Explain your vote in the post you vote me
The silence around it was what weirded me out
I think it’s probably fine, but please don’t fall back in the shadows now that you’re not a nominee

@Irrelephant, I

repeatedly

expressed concerns over scum!Shoshin this day phase. In part because of her day one play and the GrandWazoo wagon, and in part because of the theory that if she was scum she knew you would sacrifice yourself to stop her from getting lynched. When I asked you the first time if you were confident that Shoshin is town you said that you were "94% confident", and when I asked you again you maintained that confidence. You've also assured me that scum!Shoshin wouldn't be able to reasonably predict that you would sacrifice yourself based on the Starcraft game that you had together.

From my point of view, the reason why I would vote Shoshin over you is if I thought she was scum. You've made a point to repeatedly tell me that you strongly believe that Shoshin is town, and you have gone so far as to self-vote in order to help ensure that Shoshin is not lynched. You clearly don't want Shoshin lynched, and you've done nothing but reassure me that she is most likely town. So again, what else would you have me do?

[volxen]

@Vedith, why do you think that I am scum? You’ve been talking about me being scum since day 2 and I’ve yet to see you put forth any sort of logical argument as to why you think that I’m scum. I think I was fairly towny on day 2, and beyond that I’ve explained numerous times why I was by far the most at risk at self-nominating compared to either of Shoshin or Irrelephant. You don’t even seem to read any of my posts and you keep talking as though me being scum is a foregone conclusion from your point of view. I would at least like to know why that is, because if you are town you seem to have zero interest in actually sorting my slot.

[volxen]

Can you do a town to scum ranking plz volx

I don't have everyone ranked as such yet. I'm currently rereading through the game to better sort everyone. The only thing I feel 100% confident about at the moment is that you are locktown.

Speaking of which @Shoshin, what's the point of throwing shade at Alonzo? You've been one of the strongest advocates of Alonzo being 100% locktown via it making no sense for scum!RC to replace out in the manner that he did after getting GrandWazoo lynched.

I don't understand why town!Shoshin would start entertaining the possibility of scum!Alonzo. It's not productive; the productive thing to do is to try to convince Alonzo that she is town, because town!Shoshin should recognize that Alonzo is wrong town rather than scum.

[volxen]

Are you questioning whether I'm town, Volx?

I'm not completely sold on you being town. Can you explain why you would backtrack on your previous locktown!Alonzo read?

[volxen]

holy butt

would I as scum self-nom? no way

and if I was dumb enough to self-nom I'd self nom with a scumbuddy to get them towncred

who needs towncred? sure seems vedith!

reason why shoshin isn't the scum; she ain't trying to kill town rn!

From a purely objective standpoint, why is it more risky for scum!you to self-nominate compared to scum!Vedith? I would argue that both of you have taken quite a bit of a heat in this game, and it would be risky for either of you to self-nominate yourselves, especially against Shoshin.

If Shoshin is town and one of you or Vedith is scum, then this nomination list is a pure WIFOM play. The optimal play here would be for whichever one of you is scum to try and get Shoshin nightkilled via paranoia about her slot, especially in light of the Fuscosco mislynch. But if that fails, then you and Vedith get into a 1vs1, and I think it would be hard for either of you to be able to predict with reasonable confidence that you would win that 1vs1.

So objectively it's a big risk play for either of scum!you or scum!Vedith.

[volxen]

By the way @Shoshin, are you still maintaining that DoubtingThomas/Vedith/Chennisden is the most likely scumteam? Because this nomination list almost certainly proves that that is not the case. Aside from the unlikelihood of there being two scum nominees, DoubtingThomas is strongly opposed to bussing and would be opposed to a strategy along the lines of "let's nominate two of us and have one bus the other for towncredit". I believe that he would strongly object to a nomination list that is highly likely to lead to a red flip.

Auro is also strongly opposed to bussing, so that would rule out an Auro/Vedith/Chennisden scumteam as well.

Which means that if you are town, you are wrong on at least one of your previous locktown!Auro and/or locktown!Scumreading reads.

[volxen]

@Shoshin, Who are you more confident on being town, Auro or Scumreading?

[volxen]

DoubtingThomas is strongly opposed to bussing and would be opposed to a strategy along the lines of "let's nominate two of us and have one bus the other for towncredit". I believe that he would strongly object to a nomination list that is highly likely to lead to a red flip.

Just because one's generally opposed to bussing, it doesn't mean they'd refuse to bus when it makes for optimal play given the gamestate.
As scum I've lynched my teammate before (Newbie 1898).
Besides, in the world where both are scum, do you agree that their best agenda for today would be to push Shoshin?

There's a difference between bussing when it's absolutely necessary vs going out of your way to bus just for the sake of bussing for perceived towncredit. Scum!Chennisden AND scum!Vedith nominating themselves against town!Shoshin is almost always going to lead to a red flip today, unless they could produce enough WIFOM to generate enough paranoia about Shoshin to get her lynched. Some people would employ this kind strategy as scum, but I have no reason to believe that someone who is opposed to bussing on a fundamental level (such as DoubtingThomas) would do so.

You've also shared with me that you are fundamentally opposed to bussing unless absolutely necessary, and Irrelephant is known for that as well. So it's clearly a "thing" for some people to avoid bussing at all costs.

Like Shoshin mentioned earlier, it's important to focus on what's probable vs what's possible, because anything is technically "possible". I think a DoubtingThomas/Vedith/Chennisden scumteam is so unlikely that it's not even worth considering at this point.

[volxen]

DoubtingThomas is strongly opposed to bussing and would be opposed to a strategy along the lines of "let's nominate two of us and have one bus the other for towncredit". I believe that he would strongly object to a nomination list that is highly likely to lead to a red flip.

Just because one's generally opposed to bussing, it doesn't mean they'd refuse to bus when it makes for optimal play given the gamestate.
As scum I've lynched my teammate before (Newbie 1898).
Besides, in the world where both are scum, do you agree that their best agenda for today would be to push Shoshin?

Obviously if Vedith and Chennisden are both scum together, then yes, their plan A for today should be to try and get Shoshin nightkilled. If that fails, then plan B is for one to bus the other, in hopes that whichever one that survives gets townlocked.

I think that there is a very small chance that Vedith and Chennisden are both scum together. But here is how I am looking at that:

1) I know that I am town.
2) I have Alonzo as locktown.
3) I don't believe the scumteam is Auro/Vedith/Chennisden because of your fundamental opposition to bussing.
4) I don't believe the scumteam is DoubtingThomas/Vedith/Chennisden because of DT's fundamental opposition to bussing.
5) I don't believe the scumteam is Shoshin/Vedith/Chennisden because I don't believe that all three nominees are scum.
6) Therefore, the only way that I see Vedith and Chennisden both being scum together is if the scumteam is exactly Scumreading/Vedith/Chennisden.

I think it's highly likely that there is one scum nominee and two town nominees.

[volxen]

@Vedith, why do you think that I am scum? You’ve been talking about me being scum since day 2 and I’ve yet to see you put forth any sort of logical argument as to why you think that I’m scum. I think I was fairly towny on day 2, and beyond that I’ve explained numerous times why I was by far the most at risk at self-nominating compared to either of Shoshin or Irrelephant. You don’t even seem to read any of my posts and you keep talking as though me being scum is a foregone conclusion from your point of view. I would at least like to know why that is, because if you are town you seem to have zero interest in actually sorting my slot.

Not only have I answered this for others and yesterday several times I've also said that I'm not directly Scum reading you.
I made it clear that you had the highest chance to flip Scum 2 days ago, I never mentioned you yesterday and today I am saying Chen and Scum reading are Scum.

I have said Alonzo, DT and Auro are town.
So that leaves you and Shoshin

And I made it clear that I had in fact the lowest chance to flip scum on day two because I had the most risk in self-nominating, but I believe you haven't read any of my "wallposts". So it's strictly a POE solve then. Town!Alonzo is a given, but can you explain why DoubtingThomas and Auro are two of your most confident townreads?

[volxen]

Obviously if Vedith and Chennisden are both scum together, then yes, their plan A for today should be to try and get Shoshin nightkilled. If that fails, then plan B is for one to bus the other, in hopes that whichever one that survives gets townlocked.

I think that there is a very small chance that Vedith and Chennisden are both scum together. But here is how I am looking at that:

1) I know that I am town.
2) I have Alonzo as locktown.
3) I don't believe the scumteam is Auro/Vedith/Chennisden because of your fundamental opposition to bussing.
4) I don't believe the scumteam is DoubtingThomas/Vedith/Chennisden because of DT's fundamental opposition to bussing.
5) I don't believe the scumteam is Shoshin/Vedith/Chennisden because I don't believe that all three nominees are scum.
6) Therefore, the only way that I see Vedith and Chennisden both being scum together is if the scumteam is exactly Scumreading/Vedith/Chennisden.

I think it's highly likely that there is one scum nominee and two town nominees.

OK then - I think I misread your post. I agree with this logic.
Which one do you think is scum out of the nominees? I'm very confident on Shoshin town; have gotten town vibes from Vedith from the last few pages especially, and Chennisden's posts haven't given me any reason to townread the slot.

Why aren't you voting yet?

I don't think I'm going to be confident on anything until I've reread through the entire game, as I still have a lot of uncertainty at the moment. But off-hand, some concerns regarding Shoshin are:

1) RadiantCowbells repeatedly talked about scum!Shoshin in this game, and he got early scum vibes from her in this game. He talked about scum!Shoshin all throughout day one. He went back-and-forth on Shoshin a lot, but he never had her as locktown. He did the same thing in BOP Mafia (link: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=79095 ), including getting scum vibes from her at the very beginning of the game and he suspected her of being scum all throughout the game. The main reason why he didn't push her in that game is because he would have felt bad about mislynching her, and I believe for that reason he would never seriously push Shoshin on day one in this game regardless of his thoughts on her alignment.

2) There's the argument to be made that scum!Shoshin could have a reasonable degree of confidence that she could "out-town" at least one of Irrelephant or myself based on her reputation of being a strong town player, especially when coupled with spreading paranoia about scum!Irrelephant and how he would supposedly self-nominate himself 75% of the time as scum (see: post 1570). And she did talk about scum!Irrelephant a lot on day two.

3) She did contribute a lot to both GrandWazoo and Fuscosco getting lynched.

4) Her self-meta essay (see: post 1868) is suspect. I think the only time I've seen someone do an extensive self-meta essay of themselves was when DoubtingThomas did it in Newbie 1913 (link: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10681358 ), and he was scum in that game and this was in part why I highly suspected him of being scum on day one in that game. And the more aware someone is of their meta, the more capable they are going to be at mimicking their town play. For example, you picked up on this in Newbie 1900 when you said "Volxen is meta-aware" (link: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10563210)

5) Her coming to the conclusion that you and Scumreading are both "locktown" is highly suspect.

6) Her backtracking on her previous locktown!Alonzo read is highly suspect.

7) This nomination list, like the first nomination list, also makes sense from the perspective of scum!Shoshin, because now the narrative that she can push is "the first nomination list was all town, and now scum are self-nominating to cause paranoia about scum!Shoshin".

I'm not ready to place my vote yet.

[volxen]

8) Shoshin having Auro as locktown but not Irrelephant is also highly suspect. Her main reasoning for not having Irrelephant as locktown seems to be primarily because of 1) his skill at scum and 2) him townreading Fuscosco early on day one. But Auro is also extremely skilled at scum (I would say Auro is definitely on Irrelephant's level), and this didn't stop her from declaring him locktown. I don't understand why she exercised so much caution regarding Irrelephant's slot but simultaneously came to a very "easy" townread on Auro, when she knows that both players are extremely skilled at scum. If anything, wouldn't she need to be more careful in evaluating Auro, considering she is at least familiar with Irrelephant's scumgame whereas she has never seen Auro's scumgame before?

9) Shoshin criticizing me for having some degree of "paranoia" about scum!Shoshin or scum!Auro is hypocritical when she herself had paranoia about scum!Irrelephant.

[volxen]

I guess I'll get into the logic of how this game breaks down:

1. If I were scum, I would never nominate myself with Vedith/Chen unless all of DT/Chen/Vedith were town. This is because scum me aligned with one or two of DT/Chen/Vedith easily wins the game by nominating three townies outside of DT/Chen/Vedith. We mislynch during nomination, and then we mislynch the townie in DT/Chen/Vedith. I follow this strategy as scum because it safely wins me the game by following my poe to its logical conclusion. Thus, to believe that I'm scum, you have to believe that all of DT/Chen/Vedith are town.

2. If SR is scum with one or two of DT/Chen/Vedith, he never nominates anyone in the group of DT/Chen/Vedith. This is because scum SR easily wins by nominating three townies outside of himself or DT/Chen/Vedith. He mislynches during nomination, and then he mislynches the townie in DT/Chen/Vedith. Scum SR follows this strategy because it simply follows my poe to its logical conclusion.

3. If the scum includes two of DT/Chen/Vedith, they almost always nominate three townies outside of DT/Chen/Vedith. Again, this allows scum to follow my poe to its logical conclusion, winning them the game. Thus, the unique situation we find ourselves is unlikely to arise in a situation where two of DT/Chen/Vedith are scum.

4. If the mafia is precisely DT/Chen/Vedith, they lose if they nominate three townies outside of themselves. Thus, their optimal strategy is to shake things up. How do you shake things up? You nominate yourselves in some sort of combination. This reading is consistent with the current nominations.

5. Everything else is WIFOM. If you say scum are trying to outplay by acting differently than the above, you're saying that scum chose the harder path to victory for no reason other than style points. It's absurd to suggest that scum do things solely because of WIFOM. Scum do things to win the game, period. WIFOM is occasionally useful in that pursuit, but at the end of the day, scum are most likely to do what wins them the game. So don't give me a bunch of WIFOM excuses to argue my analysis is incorrect. I'm talking about what's by far the most probable outcomes.

I'm ignoring anyone who has concerns about me unless they explain first why they think all of DT/Chen/Vedith are town

.

I don't get the correlation here -- why would someone need to believe that all three of {DoubtingThomas, Chennisden, Vedith} are town for you to address their concerns? I find your analysis that scum!Shoshin only makes sense if all three of them are town to be faulty. From my point of view you're effectively saying that the only way you could be scum here is if the scumteam is exactly {Shoshin, Auro, Scumreading}. I'm not seeing why that has to be the case. In fact, I think objectively these are all possible scumteams with you on the scumteam:

Shoshin/Auro/Scumreading
Shoshin/Chennisden/Scumreading
Shosin/Vedith/Scumreading

I've ruled out the other scumteam combinations with you on the scumteam because I don't think that there are three scum nominees, and if there are two scum nominees, I don't think that the third scum is DoubtingThomas or Auro because of their philosophies on bussing. And I've ruled out you being scum with DoubtingThomas period because you came somewhat close to being nightkilled on day 2 and DoubtingThomas was voting for you for a long time, and his vote could have made a difference in whether you were nightkilled or not, especially if I had voted for you and/or if Irrelephant stopped self-voting.

Two scum nominees make sense if the scumteam is either of Shoshin/Chennisden/Scumreading or Shosin/Vedith/Scumreading, because all of you have taken heat and could benefit from the perceived towncredit you would gain from bussing. But two scum nominees would also make sense if the scumteam is Scumreading/Chennisden/Vedith for this same reason as well.

[volxen]

DoubtingThomas is strongly opposed to bussing and would be opposed to a strategy along the lines of "let's nominate two of us and have one bus the other for towncredit". I believe that he would strongly object to a nomination list that is highly likely to lead to a red flip.

Just because one's generally opposed to bussing, it doesn't mean they'd refuse to bus when it makes for optimal play given the gamestate.
As scum I've lynched my teammate before (Newbie 1898).
Besides, in the world where both are scum, do you agree that their best agenda for today would be to push Shoshin?

There's a difference between bussing when it's absolutely necessary vs going out of your way to bus just for the sake of bussing for perceived towncredit. Scum!Chennisden AND scum!Vedith nominating themselves against town!Shoshin is almost always going to lead to a red flip today, unless they could produce enough WIFOM to generate enough paranoia about Shoshin to get her lynched. Some people would employ this kind strategy as scum, but I have no reason to believe that someone who is opposed to bussing on a fundamental level (such as DoubtingThomas) would do so.

You've also shared with me that you are fundamentally opposed to bussing unless absolutely necessary, and Irrelephant is known for that as well. So it's clearly a "thing" for some people to avoid bussing at all costs.

Like Shoshin mentioned earlier, it's important to focus on what's probable vs what's possible, because anything is technically "possible". I think a DoubtingThomas/Vedith/Chennisden scumteam is so unlikely that it's not even worth considering at this point.

how do you know my fundamentals of playing scum?

Because you made your stance on bussing very clear on day one in this game, and I don't see any reason for you to lie about that just so that you could nominate both of your scumbuddies on day four and then come out and say, "I would never do that".

You, Auro, and Irrelephant are all very well capable of deep wolfing as scum, and I believe that all three of you would strive for that "perfect win" as scum.

KK maybe DT is just trying to power wolf

you mean i am wolfing? i only power wolf and almost never bus

Bussing is the tits. I've absolutely bused people to death - and won.

bussing is for pussies and weak-souled people who can't win the game without faking a town cred by killing their own teammate

[volxen]

I'm ignoring anyone who has concerns about me unless they explain first why they think all of DT/Chen/Vedith are town.

Then I guess you will continue to ignore me, but it's a logical fallacy to suggest that the only way you can be scum is if all three of them are town.

[volxen]

@Auro, Thoughts on DoubtingThomas? I just skimmed through his ISO in this game, and his play here is very different compared to how he played in Newbie 1913, where he was scum. He definitely seems more towny/believable in this game compared to Newbie 1913.

Link to Newbie 1913: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=78419
Link to DT's ISO in Newbie 1913: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10673239

[volxen]

What really led me to correctly suspect DoubtingThomas of being scum in Newbie 1913 (link: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=78419), starting on literally page one of the game, is his positions simply did not seem believable and he made some really over the top posts that didn't seem likely to come from a towny mindset. Here are some examples of his scummy posts in that game:

Spoiler:

I think akagami has good town cred for not voting despitr having like 4 ppl vote before them and itd be easy and tempting to just rvs someone as a wolf

I think akagami has good town cred for not voting despitr having like 4 ppl vote before them and itd be easy and tempting to just rvs someone as a wolf

Akagami wasn’t even supposed to post, since he was replaced by Roo (who did place an RVS vote). Nonetheless, why do you think Akagami’s slot deserves town credit for posting but not placing an RVS vote? Voting during the early game/RVS helps to move the game forward by generating discussion and allowing us to see how people respond to votes/pressure, and we ultimately have to lynch scum to win, so voting is a pro-town action. Just popping in to say “hi” doesn’t help to move the game forward. And why make the comment that “itd be easy and tempting to just rvs someone as a wolf”? Most people (regardless of alignment) vote for someone during RVS.

I already explained it.

He didn't vote when 4 people in front of him did.

As a wolf, your mindset naturally tends to be "I want to assimilate with the crowd (towns people who are not on your team)"

You see 4 people vote in front of you, you may

think

it's more natural to vote with them

the dude didn't

i think that comes from a townie mindset that wants to focus on themselves rather than be fake and "look" like they are townie

@DoubtingThomas

Assuming you were another player in the game, would you scumread Doubtingthomas?

Would be nice if you addressed this:

Doubting Thomas is asking very general questions rather than pointed ones, that seems like being active lurking. I mean, there is a difference between asking someone what they think of the gamestate and what they think of a specific slot or a specific post. I feel like we are at the point where the questions should be specific rather than general. The questions just seem too easy.

Also, how about you? What are your thoughts on the game so far? What do you think of Roo and Volxen in particular?

I am going to be very honest with you, and this will probably seem very egotistical/over-confident and you will probably hate it and maybe use those personal feelings to scum read me but whatever

I am also going to be telling you the 100% truth and giving you this answer pretending I am another player who is completely aware of how DoubtingThomas works (well, because I am DoubtingThomas)

No, I won't for several reasons

Well, first, what brass has pointed out is very true. Asking 'general' question is an easy way for scums to make themselves

LOOK

like they are trying to solve. Brass makes an extremely good point that such questions are often >rand wolf for people, especially newer players.

He mentions also that asking "pin pointed" questions are beter than general questions. This is true. However, what he forgets is that good wolves will do townie things. Bad towns will do scummy things.

I am a pretty good wolf. Compared to my town game, I am a really good wolf. I have a pretty good win record as wolf (6-2? ish) and I have almost never been mislynched as a wolf (although I have been n1 vigged by towns two times by people who know my meta well)

The point brass is making is pretty good, and can generally be considered as kind of a "rule of thumb" especially in a newbie game like this one

But at the same time, if werewolf games were that easy, we won't have any good players right? Towns have done really dumb/anti-town things all the time. To the point where it is better for some of them to just kinda be policy lynched for being so bad.

I think I am going nowhere this pep talk. I have an issue always just rambling and talking abotu random shit that is unnecessary and that's why I don't do well in my job interviews.

Anyways, the point being, what Brass said is true to some extent. But it is not a good tell to one of the more experienced players.

Now let's go back to what I personally think about DT based on what I know.

DT has 9000 posts in a different website called Mafia Universe where he created the account mid-July of 2018. On record, he has about ~55 games played. A lot of them are turbos (which are very short 18min/6min mini games) and loves to play on 12hours/12hours phases or at the most 36/12hours phases. He subbed out of a lot of games on mafia scum when he joined a bunch couple months ago because the week long phases just was too much/boring for DT who likes to post a shitton

Given that, I think DT's overall performance here has been underwhelming for sure. However, I also know that DT

LOVES

to wolf. He loves to town too, but loves to wolf a lot more. He is also a far better wolf than town. What Brass has commented which is definitely lackluster of DT is never really a wolf tell for him. Rather, personally, I think it makes DT >rand town because he will high post and generate content as both alignment, quite frankly, but he will never be caught as a wolf for not really doing anything or trying to act fakely townie

DT will do what he does as town as a wolf. The questions he asks, the comments he make, the shitposts he writes, and the pushes he commits always come from the fact that he truly

BELIEVES

in (as a town) that or KNOWS THAT HE WILL BELIEVE it if he were town (as a wolf)

DT not posting any reads/pushes at the moment is slightly ping-y, but I am a little confused because he would have no problem just pushing people who are scummy or even if they are not scummy to see their reaction. His low content is also negative for town so I think he should start stepping his game up and start posting a lot more to carry town to the win.

Right now, I personally would list DT at "very slight scum lean" for low efforting, but secretly know that that is non alignment indicative for him and is only putting him at scum lean to see his reaction. He is a very omgus-y type of a player so that will generate reaction frmo him which will help you learn his alignment

Tl;dr If I am not DT but I know DT's meta and history, I would put him at very slight scum lean to generate reaction to help myself understand his alignment a little more while keeping in mind he is actually null. I would be slightly annoyed that he is not playing to his usual self because no matter what that is that is negative for town and hope that he will start playing. As of now, he isn't one of my main scum suspects tbh

Tl;dr If I am not DT but I know DT's meta and history, I would put him at very slight scum lean to generate reaction to help myself understand his alignment a little more while keeping in mind he is actually null. I would be slightly annoyed that he is not playing to his usual self because no matter what that is that is negative for town and hope that he will start playing. As of now, he isn't one of my main scum suspects tbh

Are you talking about yourself in the third person and reading yourself.

This is why I also hate walls, if you can say something in fewer words, say it that way, this post in general is too hard to follow and I have no clue what you are trying to say.

I think this post is extremely bad in a scummy way

First problem

He attacks the post which was merely an ANSWER to another player's question

Second problem

I see really no point of making this post at all.
He's asking a very simple question that can be kinda inferred to (that I made this post in a third person way) but also at the same time, the question itself doesn't contribute to ANY scum hunting at all. The answer to whether or not I wrote the post in a third person does not help brass know my alignment at all.

Third problem

Then he goes on to attack my post in a way that's NAI and kinda pointless to point out. That "he hates walls" again which is his opinion, and he is free to express it. However, by expressing this opinion along with a pointless question he asked above, he is literally contributing nothing to the thread but still commenting on a post which was not directed towards him at all.

I think him giving out a negative opinion about the post which is not about the content of the post and how that may be townish/scummish of me is usually how scums tend to try to

shade

other players.

Overall, this post has 3 things I hate so much

- Belittling a post in a very indirect yet meaningless way
- Using that negative factor of the post to attack my slot/give a negative impression to others about me
- While in actuality if you look into this post, he contributed absolutely nothing. He did not enhance a conversation between me and him nor gave any useful analysis wrt my post

Furthermore, I think his complaint about how "he hates long post" and "if you have a succinct way of say something, say it in a simpler way" is just kinda really bad approach to the game

I can understand disliking long posts and I am sorry if you think that it makes the point I am trying to get across to be lost in the middle of it, but I make long posts because I tend to get on a tangent and write about all the thoughts I have in the process. To partly show a transparent thought process I have. This way, I can show others how/why I felt/thought abotu something in a certain way and discuss about it with them. Which will help me understand the other person's alignment better

You can dislike long posts and hate my post for not getting straight to the point, but I feel pretty strongly about this.

At the same time, I now think it's

REALLY SCUMMY

for you to just attack my post based on the fact that it's a long post and I didn't get my point across with it. rather than talking/expressing about how that makes me townie/scummy nor actually trying to ask me questions about the confusion you have with the post.

Because if you are town, you should be curious about the confusion you have. You express that you did not understand my post completely, but really don't ask a legit question that will help your clarification. Rather, you focus on how that makes my posting bad. Again, I think that comes from a scummy agenda that you want to give others the impression that I am posting badly.

I believe you are scum here, sir.

VOTE: Brass

And here was the post were I summarized the case against scum!DT in that game:

Spoiler:

hey guys, im back from vacation..
im still fine with either a yellow or saint lynch, and im still suspecting DT/BlurryX slot..
i mostly skimmed and didnt see any questions directed at me though, so lemme know if i missed any questions for me..
i agree that yellow's defeatist attitude is anti-town, but not too sure if it's town or scum indicative..meta points are towards scum yellow though..

I have a lot of concerns about DoubtingThomas's slot (now BlurryX's slot) as well. The three major things that really pinged me about DT were:

1) How he was so quick to give Akagami (Roo's predecessor) a "good amount of town credit" for posting but not voting in RVS after five people had already voted. "Easy" townreads at the beginning of the game are a red flag for me, because I expect people to be more skeptical of everyone else, especially at such an early stage of the game where there is very little content. I questioned him about this and the first time he responded to me, but then I asked him follow-up questions about it which he never responded to. After he came back after his first prod he quoted and responded to some posts directed to him (and these posts came

AFTER

my post with the follow-up questions), but he never responded to my post, and I don't see how he could have missed my post given that he responded to posts that came after my post. I even re-quoted my post with the follow-up questions and posted them a second time, and he still never responded, so he may have just been trying to avoid the issue altogether:

I think akagami has good town cred for not voting despitr having like 4 ppl vote before them and itd be easy and tempting to just rvs someone as a wolf

Akagami wasn’t even supposed to post, since he was replaced by Roo (who did place an RVS vote). Nonetheless, why do you think Akagami’s slot deserves town credit for posting but not placing an RVS vote? Voting during the early game/RVS helps to move the game forward by generating discussion and allowing us to see how people respond to votes/pressure, and we ultimately have to lynch scum to win, so voting is a pro-town action. Just popping in to say “hi” doesn’t help to move the game forward. And why make the comment that “itd be easy and tempting to just rvs someone as a wolf”? Most people (regardless of alignment) vote for someone during RVS.

I already explained it.

He didn't vote when 4 people in front of him did.

As a wolf, your mindset naturally tends to be "I want to assimilate with the crowd (towns people who are not on your team)"

You see 4 people vote in front of you, you may

think

it's more natural to vote with them

the dude didn't

i think that comes from a townie mindset that wants to focus on themselves rather than be fake and "look" like they are townie

I just looked at Akagami’s profile, and while he has been on this site for a few months, this is actually the first game he has ever played in (though technically he wasn’t supposed to post because Roo had already replaced him). So it’s possible that he simply isn’t familiar with RVS and that’s why he made a “hi” post without voting for anyone. So I find his lack of voting during RVS to be NAI (not alignment-indicative).

I agree with you in the general sense that scum wants to blend in and try to look towny, but I don’t think that realistically translates to a lack of an RVS vote (after other people have already voted) being town-indicative just because it goes against the norm. Voting early on helps to generate discussion, which helps to move the game along faster and helps town to make a more informed lynch on day one. Not voting and just saying “hi” doesn’t advance the game, so it’s not really a pro-town action.

In any case, is it specifically the fact that he made that “hi” post without voting after five people had already voted that you find be towny? If he was the first person to post in the game, and if he had posted that same “hi” post without voting, would you still have found his lack of an RVS vote to be towny?

@DoubtingThomas, can you get back to me on this?

I think akagami has good town cred for not voting despitr having like 4 ppl vote before them and itd be easy and tempting to just rvs someone as a wolf

Akagami wasn’t even supposed to post, since he was replaced by Roo (who did place an RVS vote). Nonetheless, why do you think Akagami’s slot deserves town credit for posting but not placing an RVS vote? Voting during the early game/RVS helps to move the game forward by generating discussion and allowing us to see how people respond to votes/pressure, and we ultimately have to lynch scum to win, so voting is a pro-town action. Just popping in to say “hi” doesn’t help to move the game forward. And why make the comment that “itd be easy and tempting to just rvs someone as a wolf”? Most people (regardless of alignment) vote for someone during RVS.

I already explained it.

He didn't vote when 4 people in front of him did.

As a wolf, your mindset naturally tends to be "I want to assimilate with the crowd (towns people who are not on your team)"

You see 4 people vote in front of you, you may

think

it's more natural to vote with them

the dude didn't

i think that comes from a townie mindset that wants to focus on themselves rather than be fake and "look" like they are townie

I just looked at Akagami’s profile, and while he has been on this site for a few months, this is actually the first game he has ever played in (though technically he wasn’t supposed to post because Roo had already replaced him). So it’s possible that he simply isn’t familiar with RVS and that’s why he made a “hi” post without voting for anyone. So I find his lack of voting during RVS to be NAI (not alignment-indicative).

I agree with you in the general sense that scum wants to blend in and try to look towny, but I don’t think that realistically translates to a lack of an RVS vote (after other people have already voted) being town-indicative just because it goes against the norm. Voting early on helps to generate discussion, which helps to move the game along faster and helps town to make a more informed lynch on day one. Not voting and just saying “hi” doesn’t advance the game, so it’s not really a pro-town action.

In any case, is it specifically the fact that he made that “hi” post without voting after five people had already voted that you find be towny? If he was the first person to post in the game, and if he had posted that same “hi” post without voting, would you still have found his lack of an RVS vote to be towny?

2) His whole... essay on self-meta, where he basically came to the conclusion that if he were another player in this game, he would "have a slight scumread on DT but really have DT as a nullread". The whole thing just looked like a roundabout way for him to try and make himself look towny, by giving the unexpected answer that he wouldn't be townreading himself if he were another player in the game:

@DoubtingThomas

Assuming you were another player in the game, would you scumread Doubtingthomas?

Would be nice if you addressed this:

Doubting Thomas is asking very general questions rather than pointed ones, that seems like being active lurking. I mean, there is a difference between asking someone what they think of the gamestate and what they think of a specific slot or a specific post. I feel like we are at the point where the questions should be specific rather than general. The questions just seem too easy.

Also, how about you? What are your thoughts on the game so far? What do you think of Roo and Volxen in particular?

I am going to be very honest with you, and this will probably seem very egotistical/over-confident and you will probably hate it and maybe use those personal feelings to scum read me but whatever

I am also going to be telling you the 100% truth and giving you this answer pretending I am another player who is completely aware of how DoubtingThomas works (well, because I am DoubtingThomas)

No, I won't for several reasons

Well, first, what brass has pointed out is very true. Asking 'general' question is an easy way for scums to make themselves

LOOK

like they are trying to solve. Brass makes an extremely good point that such questions are often >rand wolf for people, especially newer players.

He mentions also that asking "pin pointed" questions are beter than general questions. This is true. However, what he forgets is that good wolves will do townie things. Bad towns will do scummy things.

I am a pretty good wolf. Compared to my town game, I am a really good wolf. I have a pretty good win record as wolf (6-2? ish) and I have almost never been mislynched as a wolf (although I have been n1 vigged by towns two times by people who know my meta well)

The point brass is making is pretty good, and can generally be considered as kind of a "rule of thumb" especially in a newbie game like this one

But at the same time, if werewolf games were that easy, we won't have any good players right? Towns have done really dumb/anti-town things all the time. To the point where it is better for some of them to just kinda be policy lynched for being so bad.

I think I am going nowhere this pep talk. I have an issue always just rambling and talking abotu random shit that is unnecessary and that's why I don't do well in my job interviews.

Anyways, the point being, what Brass said is true to some extent. But it is not a good tell to one of the more experienced players.

Now let's go back to what I personally think about DT based on what I know.

DT has 9000 posts in a different website called Mafia Universe where he created the account mid-July of 2018. On record, he has about ~55 games played. A lot of them are turbos (which are very short 18min/6min mini games) and loves to play on 12hours/12hours phases or at the most 36/12hours phases. He subbed out of a lot of games on mafia scum when he joined a bunch couple months ago because the week long phases just was too much/boring for DT who likes to post a shitton

Given that, I think DT's overall performance here has been underwhelming for sure. However, I also know that DT

LOVES

to wolf. He loves to town too, but loves to wolf a lot more. He is also a far better wolf than town. What Brass has commented which is definitely lackluster of DT is never really a wolf tell for him. Rather, personally, I think it makes DT >rand town because he will high post and generate content as both alignment, quite frankly, but he will never be caught as a wolf for not really doing anything or trying to act fakely townie

DT will do what he does as town as a wolf. The questions he asks, the comments he make, the shitposts he writes, and the pushes he commits always come from the fact that he truly

BELIEVES

in (as a town) that or KNOWS THAT HE WILL BELIEVE it if he were town (as a wolf)

DT not posting any reads/pushes at the moment is slightly ping-y, but I am a little confused because he would have no problem just pushing people who are scummy or even if they are not scummy to see their reaction. His low content is also negative for town so I think he should start stepping his game up and start posting a lot more to carry town to the win.

Right now, I personally would list DT at "very slight scum lean" for low efforting, but secretly know that that is non alignment indicative for him and is only putting him at scum lean to see his reaction. He is a very omgus-y type of a player so that will generate reaction frmo him which will help you learn his alignment

Tl;dr If I am not DT but I know DT's meta and history, I would put him at very slight scum lean to generate reaction to help myself understand his alignment a little more while keeping in mind he is actually null. I would be slightly annoyed that he is not playing to his usual self because no matter what that is that is negative for town and hope that he will start playing. As of now, he isn't one of my main scum suspects tbh

3) His scum-case on Brass, which was based on one rather short post from Brass, seemed fairly over the top:

Tl;dr If I am not DT but I know DT's meta and history, I would put him at very slight scum lean to generate reaction to help myself understand his alignment a little more while keeping in mind he is actually null. I would be slightly annoyed that he is not playing to his usual self because no matter what that is that is negative for town and hope that he will start playing. As of now, he isn't one of my main scum suspects tbh

Are you talking about yourself in the third person and reading yourself.

This is why I also hate walls, if you can say something in fewer words, say it that way, this post in general is too hard to follow and I have no clue what you are trying to say.

I think this post is extremely bad in a scummy way

First problem

He attacks the post which was merely an ANSWER to another player's question

Second problem

I see really no point of making this post at all.
He's asking a very simple question that can be kinda inferred to (that I made this post in a third person way) but also at the same time, the question itself doesn't contribute to ANY scum hunting at all. The answer to whether or not I wrote the post in a third person does not help brass know my alignment at all.

Third problem

Then he goes on to attack my post in a way that's NAI and kinda pointless to point out. That "he hates walls" again which is his opinion, and he is free to express it. However, by expressing this opinion along with a pointless question he asked above, he is literally contributing nothing to the thread but still commenting on a post which was not directed towards him at all.

I think him giving out a negative opinion about the post which is not about the content of the post and how that may be townish/scummish of me is usually how scums tend to try to

shade

other players.

Overall, this post has 3 things I hate so much

- Belittling a post in a very indirect yet meaningless way
- Using that negative factor of the post to attack my slot/give a negative impression to others about me
- While in actuality if you look into this post, he contributed absolutely nothing. He did not enhance a conversation between me and him nor gave any useful analysis wrt my post

Furthermore, I think his complaint about how "he hates long post" and "if you have a succinct way of say something, say it in a simpler way" is just kinda really bad approach to the game

I can understand disliking long posts and I am sorry if you think that it makes the point I am trying to get across to be lost in the middle of it, but I make long posts because I tend to get on a tangent and write about all the thoughts I have in the process. To partly show a transparent thought process I have. This way, I can show others how/why I felt/thought abotu something in a certain way and discuss about it with them. Which will help me understand the other person's alignment better

You can dislike long posts and hate my post for not getting straight to the point, but I feel pretty strongly about this.

At the same time, I now think it's

REALLY SCUMMY

for you to just attack my post based on the fact that it's a long post and I didn't get my point across with it. rather than talking/expressing about how that makes me townie/scummy nor actually trying to ask me questions about the confusion you have with the post.

Because if you are town, you should be curious about the confusion you have. You express that you did not understand my post completely, but really don't ask a legit question that will help your clarification. Rather, you focus on how that makes my posting bad. Again, I think that comes from a scummy agenda that you want to give others the impression that I am posting badly.

I believe you are scum here, sir.

VOTE: Brass

In any case, DT is someone I definitely want to look at much more closely. I plan to reread through his entire ISO again, and look through some of his previous completed games to get a better idea of his meta. He has multiple completed towngames on this site (though he has replaced out of several games), and I need to get a better idea of what his town meta looks like because a lot of the things he has said/done in this game are questionable/sketchy from my perspective.

I feel like compared to that game, the positions he has taken in this game are much more believable. You will notice in that game, he gave an over-the-top and over-explained reason for scumreading brassherald based on one post Brass made, whereas in this game he hasn't done that. His reasons for scumreading Shoshin have been very straightforward.

~Put all quotes in spoilers so the page doesn't get annoying to read later on. If needed, I can change it later so tell me if you're not ok with that
ejj~

[volxen]

@Shoshin, Your analysis is wrong:

1) As Auro pointed out, the optimal strategy as scum is

NOT

to just continuously nominate three townies for each nomination phase because of the risk of everyone who is nominated becoming locktown. That's a good way for scum to lose the game. Therefore, it's a fallacy to believe that you would never, ever self-nominate on the premise that it's "not the easiest, most simple, least risky path to victory".

2) I do believe that scum!you would try to follow the "easiest, most simple, least risky" path to victory, but what that path looks like depends on who your scumbuddies are. If the scumteam is exactly Shoshin/Auro/Scumreading}, then yes, the easiest path to victory would be to mislynch one of {Vedith, Chennisden} today, and then after one of them flips green, hard push the other on day five on the basis that one of them "has" to be scum.

But if the scumteam is Shoshin/Vedith/Scumreading or Shoshin/Chennisden/Scumreading, is it really so off-the-wall to suggest that

the three of you realized that you most likely CANNOT win without bussing

? In either scenario, all three of you have taken a lot of heat, and none of you have the "towncredit" to easily lead back-to-back mislynches from the pool of {Volxen, Auro, Alonzo, DoubtingThomas, Chennisden} or {Volxen, Auro, Alonzo, DoubtingThomas, Vedith} today and tomorrow. So instead you nominate two of yourselves with the understanding that one of you is most likely getting flipped today to try to get at least one of the surviving members of the scumteam locked in as town. I don't see how that's too far-fetched to be probable based on the current state of the game.

That's the distinction. If the scumteam is Shoshin/Auro/Scumreading, then it's easy for you to push back-to-back mislynches on Vedith and Chennisden, especially because you would have deepwolf!Auro to help you out with this. If the scumteam is Shoshin/Vedith/Scumreading or Shoshin/Chennisden/Scumreading, then leading back-to-back mislynches is not the "easiest, most simple, least risky" path to victory if it's unlikely to be successful in the first place.

[volxen]

We are done talking, Volx. Do not sign up for my games again if you are town.

I don't see the point of the AtE. Did I say that you were lockscum? No. I just disagreed with your analysis with respect to the conclusion that the

ONLY

way you could be scum is if the scumteam is Shoshin/Auro/Scumreading.

You seem to have a serious problem with people daring to challenge you.

[volxen]

WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH YOU, VOLX? I BROKE DOWN EVERY STEP IN THE LOGIC FOR YOU.

But if the scumteam is Shoshin/Vedith/Scumreading or Shoshin/Chennisden/Scumreading

If the scumteam is me/Vedith/SR, we nominate Volx/Alonzo/Auro (i.e. three townies outside of DT/Chen/Vedith). We mislynch a nominee & then we mislynch one of DT/Chenn.

If the scumteam is me/Chenn/SR, we nominate Volx/Alonzo/Auro (i.e. three townies outside of DT/Chen/Vedith). We mislynch a nominee & then we mislynch one of DT/Chenn.

I DON'T BUS WHEN I HAVE SUCH AN EASY PATH TO VICTORY.

Ah, wait. I did make a mistake in my own analysis. If the scumteam is either Shoshin/Vedith/Scumreading or Shoshin/Chennisden/Scumreading, then yes, you are correct in that you could nominate Volxen/Alonzo/Auro today (three town nominees) and potentially mislynch whichever one of {Vedith, Chennisden} is not your scumbuddy tomorrow, provided you still had enough "towncredit" tomorrow. It would theoretically be the "easiest, most simple, least risky" path to victory provided that you were confident enough that you could specifically push whichever one of {Vedith, Chennisden} is not your scumbuddy on day five.

Ironically though, I am actually getting town vibes from you over the AtE, considering how quickly it came after my post. If anything, I think that if you were scum you would probably be more inclined to threaten to replace out rather than tell me to not join any of your future games. I'm not sure that scum!you would think to fake that kind of response to me, especially just 3 minutes after I made my post.

[volxen]

@Auro, If we nightkill Chennisden today and they flip green, would that affect your read of Vedith at all? I am wondering if you are strongly townreading Vedith independent of the nomination list, or if you agree with the consensus that this nomination list is not all-town. If Chennisden flips green today, who would you want to lynch on day five?

[volxen]

Volxen, of course a green flip would cause me to re-evaluate Vedith. A green flip would indicate that I'll have to re-evaluate other reads, too, but I'm not really looking into that possibility right now. I'm not strongly townreading Vedith, for the record - I felt his slot was scummy right until the last few pages. Is there any particular reas you're asking me about the hypothetical post-greenflip?

I was part of the consensus saying the nomination list isn't all-town.

Yes, there is a particular reason why I asked. Because if you had said that Vedith was a strong townread and that he would continue to be one even if Chennisden flipped green, you would be implying that at least one of {Volxen, Shoshin, Alonzo} is scum, and it would be suspicious in and of itself if you had Vedith as a top-tier townread alongside the three of us. The point being that if you are confident on town!Volxen, town!Shoshin, and town!Alonzo, then if Chennisden flips green that would imply that the scumteam should be exactly DoubtingThomas/Vedith/Scumreading from your point of view.

You have {Volxen, Shoshin, and Alonzo} as your three strongest townreads. I've come around on Shoshin and I believe she is most likely town at this point. I have had Alonzo as locktown ever since he replaced in. So with all of that in mind, in a world where Shoshin is town, Alonzo is town, and you are scum, there are two specific mislynches that you need without having to 1) bus or 2) turn against one of {Volxen, Shoshin, Alonzo}. As Shoshin puts it, there are two specific mislynches that you would need in order to follow the "easiest, most simple, least risky" path to victory. They are as follows:

If the scumteam is Auro/Vedith/Scumreading, the two mislynches needed would be {Chennisden, DoubtingThomas}.
If the scumteam is Auro/Chennisden/Scumreading, the two mislynches needed would be {Vedith, DoubtingThomas}.
If the scumteam is Auro/Vedith/DoubtingThomas, the two mislynches needed would be {Chennisden, Scumreading}.
If the scumteam is Auro/Chennisden/DoubtingThomas, the two mislynches needed would be {Vedith, Scumreading}.
If the scumteam is Auro/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading, the two mislynches needed would be {Chennisden, Vedith}.

Any of those first four scumteam combinations presents a problem for scum!Auro, because the consensus at this point is that this nomination list is not all-town, and Shoshin is mostly townread, which implies that at least one of {Chennisden, Vedith} is scum. So for example if the scumteam is Auro/Vedith/Scumreading, and if we lynch Chennisden today and he flips green, it would be highly suspect if you wanted to lynch someone other than Vedith on day five. You most likely would not succeed in this as the consensus at this point is that this nomination list is not all-town. And so on and so forth for all of the first four scumteam combinations.

On the other hand, if the scumteam is exactly Auro/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading, then you have set a brilliant plan into motion. This would mean that the nomination list on both days was all-town, the difference being that the day two nomination list consisted of three towny players (you knew that I would come around even though I didn't do much on day one), and the day four nomination list consists of one towny player and two sketchy players. The assumption being that after what happened on day two, scum would never nominate three townies

AGAIN

on day four due to the risk of too many townies becoming confirmed town. So we would mislynch one of {Chennisden, Vedith} today and the other tomorrow. It's a great plan because it would allow scum!you to have a 100% guaranteed town flip on both day two and on day four by having all-town nomination lists on both days, and then through "scum would never do two back-to-back all-town nomination lists" WIFOM you can push {Chennisden, Vedith} as your two mislynches without having to turn against any of {Volxen, Shoshin, Alonzo}.

So I don't that it's likely that you are scum with either of Vedith or Chennisden, because you have really locked yourself in by having Shoshin, Alonzo, and I as your three strongest townreads. It would be hard for you to believably reverse your stance on any of us, especially me considering our history together and the fact that you have repeatedly declaring me "probtown" in this game. So you are either scum with DoubtingThomas and Scumreading and you have come up with this elaborate plan of having two back-to-back all-town nomination lists to mislynch Chennisden and Vedith specifically, or you are just town. I think you being town is more probable at this point.

[volxen]

I think I'd just prefer to be lynched and not deal with the players in this game.
Then you can sheep my reads.

How can this possibly make sense from your POV if you are town, unless you believe that this nomination list is in fact all-town? There is no reason to sacrifice yourself as town here unless you are fully convinced that this nomination list is all town, and the consensus is that this nomination list is not all-town. All you've said is that you think Chennisden is now town for unexplained reasons, despite him previously being one of your most confident scumreads:

@Vedith, why do you think that I am scum? You’ve been talking about me being scum since day 2 and I’ve yet to see you put forth any sort of logical argument as to why you think that I’m scum. I think I was fairly towny on day 2, and beyond that I’ve explained numerous times why I was by far the most at risk at self-nominating compared to either of Shoshin or Irrelephant. You don’t even seem to read any of my posts and you keep talking as though me being scum is a foregone conclusion from your point of view. I would at least like to know why that is, because if you are town you seem to have zero interest in actually sorting my slot.

Not only have I answered this for others and yesterday several times I've also said that I'm not directly Scum reading you.
I made it clear that you had the highest chance to flip Scum 2 days ago, I never mentioned you yesterday and today I am saying Chen and Scum reading are Scum.

I have said Alonzo, DT and Auro are town.
So that leaves you and Shoshin

And I made it clear that I had in fact the lowest chance to flip scum on day two because I had the most risk in self-nominating, but I believe you haven't read any of my "wallposts". So it's strictly a POE solve then. Town!Alonzo is a given, but can you explain why DoubtingThomas and Auro are two of your most confident townreads?

Okay, it didn't change my mind though.
Auro and DT from gut.

I changed my mind and think Chen is town.

Not much to say other than I think Chen might be town.

So by your own POE you previously stated that the scumteam was three out of {Volxen, Shoshin, Scumreading, Chennisden}, with Scumreading and Chennisden being your most confident scumreads. Now you are suggesting that Chennisden is town, and you are indirectly implying that you think Shoshin is town as well if you want to take the lynch, because it would be illogical for town!you to sacrifice yourself if you had doubts about Shoshin being town. With your previous townreads of {DoubtingThomas, Auro, Alonzo} and your apparent new townreads of {Chennisden, Shoshin}, this would only leave {Volxen, Scumreading} in your scumpool, which is not even enough for a full scumteam. And out of us two, you have only given reasons for directly scumreading Scumreading; I have only ever been a POE scumread for you from your own admission.

You are making absolutely no sense here Vedith if you are somehow town.

[volxen]

Volxen, DT is probscum to me from two primary perspectives.

1. PoE: I have you as town from your analysis (if you're scum, you've suddenly expanded a lot on your scumrange; and there's another towntell I won't reveal atm). Shoshin is town for a host of reasons - if she's scum she's wayyyy outside her personal scumrange and I doubt that's the case. Alonzo's town. Leaves a pool of {DT, SR, Vedith, Chennisden} and I've started to feel Vedith town this gameday.
2. Agenda-driven play: I feel the nominations were explicitly to Target Shoshin and get her out of the game; and DT's transparently crusading against Shoshin.
3. Convenient play: Feel like DT settled on a Shoshin tunnel from early game and doesn't seem like he's doing much else. To be fair, though, Shoshin is a power player who manages to control lynches from BoP and players like RC/Shoshin influence the gamestate making it slightly harder to push elsewhere for other slots; regardless I think my point still holds validity.

Volx, comments on this? Where do we disagree logic-wise?

At this point I agree with your scumpool of {DoubtingThomas, Scumreading, Vedith, Chennisden}, because Alonzo is locktown, Shoshin has done things that are most likely out of her scumrange, and based on my previous analysis post you are most likely town as well. In any case, I don't think DoubtingThomas has been super towny this game, but he was over-the-top scummy in our last game together.

I definitely don't find Vedith towny after that "just lynch me" AtE post. Irrelephant sacrificed himself (after first wanting me to be lynched), but only because he had clearly articulated reasons for why he was convinced that both Shoshin and I were town, and his primary motivation in doing so was that he wanted Shoshin to stay in the game. He consistently townread Shoshin throughout most of the game, and he really only came to a point where he was OK with his own lynch once he became convinced that I was town as well.

Vedith on the other hand has just done a complete 180 on Chennisden for completely unexplained reasons, at a point in time where Chennisden is already at L-1, and he is now advocating for his own lynch. This is more likely to come from scum!Vedith than town!Vedith. If Vedith and Chennisden are scum together, he might be doing it as a last-ditch effort to make it look like they aren't SvS. If Vedith is scum and Chennisden is town, then he might be doing it because he believes Chennisden will still be lynched regardless, and he believes he comes across more towny by 1) correctly identifying Chennisden as town pre-flip and 2) acting like he is willing to sacrifice himself.

If he can't even articulate reasons as to why he is 100% convinced that both Shoshin and Chennisden are town, then it's completely anti-town for town!Vedith to be advocating for his own lynch. Which is why it's highly unlikely that town!Vedith would make this move. And I don't buy that he suddenly has a strong townread of Chennisden out of nowhere that he can't even explain.

[volxen]

VOTE: Vedith

I don't necessarily think we should hammer Chennisden just yet, in case the scumteam is DoubtingThomas/Vedith/Scumreading. Scumreading is already voting for Chennisden, and DoubtingThomas just gave intent to hammer.

[volxen]

Interesting sequence of events:

VOTE: Chennisden

Let's just get on with this.

Shoshin puts Chennisden at L-1.

I think I'd just prefer to be lynched and not deal with the players in this game.
Then you can sheep my reads.

Vedith offers to sacrifice himself.

I changed my mind and think Chen is town.

Not much to say other than I think Chen might be town.

Vedith does a 180 on Chennisden and now townreads him.

well nothing's happening. i might hammer, tbh

intent to hammer in a few hours. i am gonna go study and come back. if you object and are not shoshin and wants to talk to me, @ me in bold so i can get back to you

DT gives intent to hammer. All of this happened within a span of 4 hours. So if the scumteam is Vedith/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading, Vedith waited until Chennisden was at L-1 to to start "townreading" him and offer to sacrifice himself, knowing that it didn't matter because DT was going to come in and hammer Chennisden anyway.

[volxen]

If I don't die now, I'll die sometime more important. I do believe Vedith is town; I express reservations about Shoshin.

If nobody objects, I intent to hammer.

Why do you think Vedith is town and have reservations about Shoshin? And what are your reads on all of the other slots?

[volxen]

And by the way @Chennisden, what I said to Vedith applies to you as well if you are thinking about self-hammering. If you are town you shouldn't self-hammer unless you are 100% convinced that both Shoshin and Vedith are town.

[volxen]

Why do you think Vedith is town and have reservations about Shoshin? And what are your reads on all of the other slots?

Interesting that both slots have progressed to townreading each other, more confident that Shoshin is scum than the other and both want to self-vote?

I think it's a ridiculous attempt at scum theater by Vedith and Chennisden. The idea being to make the one that survives look more towny, and to create paranoia that Shoshin is scum with whichever one of them gets flipped. It makes sense for there to be two scum nominees if the scumteam is three out of {DoubtingThomas, Vedith, Chennisden, Scumreading}. The game is currently divided into two halves, the townblock of {Auro, Shoshin, Volxen, Alonzo} and the scumpool of {DoubtingThomas, Vedith, Chennisden, Scumreading}. Regardless of which three out of those four is the scumteam, they have to get at least one person from the townblock mislynched. Following Shoshin's logic of taking the "easiest, most simple, least risky" path to victory, they could have technically done an all-town nomination list today such as {Auro, Shoshin, Alonzo} to take out someone from the townblock. However, even if they did this, none of {DoubtingThomas, Vedith, Chennisden, Scumreading} would be in a position to control the lynch on day five. The remaining members of the townblock would still be in control of the lynch, and the scumteam still ultimately loses to POE eventually regardless of who they nominate on subsequent even-numbered day phases.

So the only way that they can win is to break up the townblock of {Auro, Shoshin, Volxen, Alonzo}. Auro is a universal townread, and Alonzo is mostly a universal locktown read, which leaves Shoshin and I as their targets. To meet their win condition, they either have to get both Shoshin and I mislynched or get one of us mislynched along with whichever one of {DoubtingThomas, Vedith, Chennisden, Scumreading} is not scum. They simply don't have a lot of options here because they are losing to POE, but it makes sense that they would decide that they need to bus one of their members and then create paranoia that that person is scum with Shoshin and/or me. It especially makes sense if Vedith and Chennisden are scum together, because their mutual willingness to sacrifice themselves is just a last-ditch effort to make whichever one of them survives look more towny.

Our townblock aside there is zero chance that Vedith and Chennisden are both town, as it would simply be absurd for them to mutually do complete 180's on each other and both be willing to sacrifice themselves,

especially

with Chennisden claiming to have "reservations" about Shoshin (and Vedith has yet to directly declare Shoshin a townread as well). There is a small chance that one of them is town, but I think the most likely scenario is that this is orchestrated scum theater.

[volxen]

chennis, vote shoshin

I'm having some reservations about Shoshin being town. Since I know for sure I'm town,

VOTE: Shoshin

I still believe I am the best lynch today; just less so.

I still don't see how you can possibly consider Vedith to be more towny than Shoshin, or how you came to the conclusion that Vedith's ISO is "overall town". Everything Shoshin has done makes sense from a town mindset. My concerns about her were mainly with respect to her being a nominee twice, and how she could have potentially self-nominated as scum to try to get herself townlocked. Although considering how much heat she already took on day two over concerns that she self-nominated as scum, I don't think it's likely that she would nominate herself again on day four, as that just puts her at risk again without making her look any more towny if she survives.

Aside from that, I'm not sure that the way that she she lashed out at me on the spot is within her scumrange. For some people this would be easy enough to do as scum, but Shoshin doesn't have all that much experience playing scum. When I challenged her on her analysis (and I made a mistake in my own analysis which led me to challenge her analysis), she snapped at me and said, "What the fuck is wrong with you, Volx?" and told me not to join any of her future games. If she is scum, then all of this frustration is fake, because she would have no reason to be frustrated with me if I, as a townie, am challenging her on her fake analysis. On the other hand, if she is town and she believes that her analysis is sound and I am "just not getting it", then it makes sense that she would lash out at me in frustration. If she is town, then her frustration was real, if she is scum then it was all faked. The only reason to do something like that as scum is if you believe it will make you look more towny; there is no reason to fake emotions as scum if it isn't going to help you get townread. And being that I approach this game from a purely logical/analytical perspective and keeps emotions out of my gameplay, there is no reason for scum!Shoshin to believe that I would townread her over fake snapping at me (this is the first time that I have ever townread someone for that reason). And the fact that her snapping at me came just minutes after I challenged her makes it even more likely that it comes from town!Shoshin, because it means she didn't spend much time thinking about her responses as it was all done on the spot.

I am talking specifically about the exchange between Shoshin and I from posts 2584 - 2589.

[volxen]

Way past my bedtime. I'll be back in the morning. I think Chen is the correct lynch, and if not, SR. Vedith's reads were off.

What about DoubtingThomas?

[volxen]

@Alonzo we are in 4vs3 lylo.

[volxen]

Intent to vote shosh

Wait, what? Don't do that, you are lylo gambiting here Alonzo.

If I'm right about Shoshin being town, the scumteam is either Auro/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading or Chennisden/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading. Auro and Chennisden are never scum together for the reasons I explained in post 2605.

[volxen]

Ok, so vedith got bandwagoned in 7 minutes with Vedith self-hammering, cool

Now, listen to me. I've been trying to lynch chennisden since day 2 and when we have the opportunity, scum go for the dude who had me and shoshin marked down as scum. Is nobody going to question how chennisden never got hammered, but Vedith who had 2 scum reads on Shoshin and scum reading, the dude who doesn't post as much, got counterwagoned in 7 minutes?

I'm not allowing my mislynch in LyLo, please unvote until scum get online and end this game

If you wish to vote me, be 100% I'm scum, don't vote prematurely, especially at this stage in the game.

If Chennisden is scum he clearly was willing to be bussed on day four. He was at L-1 for an extended period of time, and I could have hammered him at any time (after all I did say that I thought there was a good chance that both Vedith and Chennisden were scum). Now If I had given intent to hammer Chennisden, do you think that the scumteam would suddenly, as a group, all move their votes to Vedith to quickly lynch him before I could hammer Chennisden? Unlikely. I was actually getting close to asking Chennisden if he had anything else to say, and if he didn't, I was going to give intent to hammer him.

The fact of the matter is that I already had my vote on Vedith, and the consensus was that Vedith and Chennisden are most likely not both town, so it makes sense that people would switch their votes to Vedith if they wanted to end the day early (as opposed to asking me to hammer Chennisden). And neither of Vedith or Chennisden have been towny, so I don't think that any of us had a strong preference of lynching one over the other.

[volxen]

@Scumreading, Why do you want to lynch Chennisden instead of DoubtingThomas?

[volxen]

you couldve hammered me

fuck

i shouldve hammered me

If you and Vedith are both town, it wouldn't have mattered if you were lynched instead, because we would be in the exact same boat today except with Vedith alive instead of you. The scumteam is either Chennisden/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading or Auro/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading. If Auro is scum the whole point of yesterday's nomination list was to setup you and Vedith as back-to-back mislynches. Which is why I am only willing to vote for DoubtingThomas or Scumreading today.

[volxen]

Volxen, re: DT - are you completely unfazed by Vedith's dying reads? He had DT as a top townread.

I mean he thought both Shoshin or I are more likely to be scum that DT, so I will evaluate DT on my own rather than go by Vedith’s reads. The one read that he definitely got right is that Scumreading is scum.

In any case, are you 100% on {Volxen, Shoshin, Alonzo} all being town? If so that would imply the scumteam is exactly {DoubtingThomas, Chennisden, Scumreading} from the perspective of town!Auro. If not, then who among us three are you not confident is town?

I'm essentially 99.9999% on both Shoshin and Alonzo being town. It's much harder to get to that point with you because of your scumrange and the fact that you are going to look towny regardless of your alignment.

[volxen]

@Auro, Would you take issue with me voting for DoubtingThomas so that I can confirm to myself that he is scum via him not getting quickhammered, and objectively prove to everyone here that at least one of us is scum?

[volxen]

@Auro If you are unsure about Shoshin, aren't you taking quite a big risk in voting for Scumreading? If she is scum and Scumreading is town, with you voting for Scumreading her scumbuddies could come on and back-to-back vote for him. You've only had your vote on Scumreading for a little over two hours and no one else (except for me) has posted since you voted, so that could explain why Scumreading hasn't been quickhammered yet in the scenario where he is town and Shoshin is scum. This game has been slow lately, so even though it’s lylo I don’t know if scum would be constantly checking the thread for quickhammering opportunities (and they have to be on at the same time as well to quickhammer).

[volxen]

Volxen, individually I'm a lot more confident in SR being scum than Shoshin. In a 1v1 between them two, I'm always going to drive the lynch towards SR.

Read post 2696. I think Shoshin has reasons to bus heavily at this point, if she's scum.

You don't think that she could follow a path to victory that involves no bussing?

[volxen]

Shoshin, between me and Volxen, who are you more confident on as town?

I take it between Shoshin and I, you are more confident on me being town?

[volxen]

Please don't vote for Scumreading just yet.

[volxen]

I'm working something out here, but the idea is that I think if either Shoshin or Auro are scum, they would not need to bus at all to win this game, which means DoubtingThomas is actually a better vote.

[volxen]

First of all, these scumteam combinations are already ruled out just from the votes that have been placed in lylo:

Auro/DoubtingThomas/Chennisden (because Shoshin and Scumreading are definitely not both town)
Shoshin/DoubtingThomas/Chennisden (because Auro and Scumreading are definitely not both town)


Then following these assumptions:

1. Alonzo is locktown

2. If Shoshin is scum, she does not need to bus to win this game because of her standing in this game and her status as “power player”.

3. Auro, while not per se a “power player”, also does not need to bus to win this game as scum as he is a widely townread player that also has an extremely strong scumgame.

4. While DoubtingThomas doesn’t like to bus, he doesn’t have the standing that Shoshin and Auro have in this game, so it would be more difficult for him to win this game without bussing compared to Shoshin or Auro.

5. Based on the above, scum!Shoshin is very unlikely to have nominated scum!Chennisden on day four. Scum!Auro is very unlikely to have nominated scum!Chennisden on day four. Scum!DoubtingThomas may have nominated scum!Chennisden on day four.

6. Also based on the above, scum!Shoshin is very unlikely to bus scum!Scumreading today. Scum!Auro is very unlikely to bus scum!Scumreading today. Scum!DoubtingThomas may bus scum!Scumreading today.


The following scumteam combinations are ruled out on the basis of being very unlikely:


Any scumteam combination with Auro paired with Scumreading (Auro would push DoubtingThomas or Chennisden today if this were the case)

Any scumteam combination with Shoshin paired with Scumreading (Shoshin would push DoubtingThomas or Chennisden today if this were the case)

Any scumteam combination with Auro paired with Chennisden (Auro wanted to lynch Chennisden yesterday, and it came close to happening. And I don’t think that scum!Auro would nominate scum!Chennisden against Shoshin in any case, following the reasoning that scum!Auro does not need to bus to win this game.)

Any scumteam combination with Shoshin paired with Chennisden (Shoshin wanted to lynch Chennisden yesterday, and it came close to happening. This would also mean that 2/3 of the nominees were scum which is unlikely, following the reasoning that scum!Shoshin does not need to bus to win this game.)


Which leaves the following as the probable scumteams:


DoubtingThomas/Auro/Shoshin
DoubtingThomas/Chennisden/Scumreading


Either way DoubtingThomas being town doesn’t make sense.

[volxen]

I'm working something out here, but the idea is that I think if either Shoshin or Auro are scum, they would not need to bus at all to win this game, which means DoubtingThomas is actually a better vote.

But it is guaranteed that

at least

one of Shoshin and SR are scum. If you don't think Shoshin is scum then it must be SR.

I'm well aware that at least one of Shoshin and SR are scum. The point is that if I get to a point where I'm confident enough that DoubtingThomas is scum, I can vote for him and start a 1vs1 between the two of us. Then people can choose if they want to sort between {Shoshin, Scumreading} or {Volxen, DoubtingThomas}. If I get to a point where I'm more confident on DoubtingThomans being scum than anything else, it would make sense for me to do this.

[volxen]

@Alonzo, Who do you feel the most comfortable voting for at the moment?

[volxen]

I will post more later on how I think DoubtingThomas is scum regardless of Scumreading's alignment, even if I reduce the number of assumptions that I initially made.

That being said, @Scumreading are you outright refusing to vote for DoubtingThomas today?

[volxen]

@Scumreading, Shoshin brings up a correct point --

if you are town, BOTH Shoshin AND Xtox/Auro are 100% confirmed scum from your point of view

.

If you and Xtox/Auro were both town, you would have been quickhammered long ago.
If you and Shoshin were both town, you would have been quickhammered long ago.

If you are town then 2/3 of the scumteam is already 100% confirmed to you just based on lylo votes

. Why are you talking as if you still need to sort Auro/Xtox while simultaneously pushing for Shoshin's lynch? Why are you not equally agreeable to pushing for Xtox/Auro's lynch?

The reality of the matter is that you are currently engaged in two different 1vs1's, Scumreading vs Shoshin and Scumreading vs Xtox/Auro.

[volxen]

What is keeping you from voting SR, Volx?

I want to see what Alonzo wants to do since I consider him locktown. Also I want Scumreading to respond to me.

[volxen]

Also @Shoshin, If you are town, then the only scumteam combination that doesn't contain DoubtingThomas would be Xtox/Chennisden/Scumreading, based on me being town and having Alonzo as locktown.

I don't think that's too probable, as it would mean that Xtox/Auro tried to actively bus both of his partners. For example, on day four Auro had a strong preference of lynching Chennisden over Vedith and voted for him, and he almost got lynched. Auro also made this post at the beginning of day five:

Way past my bedtime. I'll be back in the morning.

I think Chen is the correct lynch, and if not, SR

. Vedith's reads were off.

The pool of scummy players has been {DoubtingThomas, Chennisden, Scumreading}. It isn't like scum!Auro at all to default to bussing his partners without even trying to the test the waters for a DoubtingThomas mislynch first. He made that post before you voted for Scumreading and started your 1vs1 against him. Auro has told me on Discord that he strongly dislikes bussing, and he has only bussed in one out of his six or seven scumgames.

If anything I think that Xtox/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading is a far, far more likely scumteam compared to Xtox/Chennisden/Scumreading. Do you agree or disagree with me on that?

[volxen]

looks like auros done the good work for me
i mean ive seen scum dawdle on the hammers before but its been like 2 days lets hurry it up if so

i instinctually wanna say everyone on the nom yesterday was town
at a glance i wouldnt expect volxen to be scum

making the solve sr/dt/alonzo

probably too easy tho

Your predecessor Auro had Alonzo as 100% locktown, and that is the general consensus with respect to Alonzo's slot. Is there a particular reason why you disagree with your predecessor and think that Alonzo is scum?

[volxen]

@Alonzo, Are you wanting me to start a 1vs1 against DoubtingThomas by voting for him? Or do you feel confident in your solve between {Shoshin, Scumreading}? In any case I would need your support on DoubtingThomas, so I won't vote for him unless that's the route that you want to go.

[volxen]

anyone who is on please post "no hammer" or something like that. if this flips scum this'll help

I'm on, I won't hammer just yet.

[volxen]

Between Shoshin and Xtox/Auro, Xtox is definitely more likely to be scum. By a lot. Auro knows how to get townread as scum, and he actually often has an easier time "towning it up" as scum because he is better at scum than town. And a lot of his gameplay has basically been sheeping Shoshin, and then turning around and accusing Shoshin of being scum based on BOP alone (and BOP is a fallacy; Auro should know better than this).

I don't know if Shoshin could put on a "performance" like this as scum, even if she was scum with Auro and he was non-stop coaching her in the scum PT. It's even less likely that she could put on said "performance" if she is scum and Auro isn't.

There was also a point where Irrelephant talked about how he thought I was town because of my analysis posts, and Auro popped into the thread to make one post just to shade me and say, "Scum!Volxen's capable of faking heavy analysis". There were several posts/questions I had addressed to him at the time, and he ignored them all just to pop into the thread and shade me. His post where he shaded me came about an hour after Irrelephant's post where he explained his townread of me (see posts 1694 and 1699).

Chennisden lately has been a lot more towny than DoubtingThomas as well. In addition to that, I strongly believe that Chennisden is not scum with Auro. I can see Scumreading being scum with Auro.

And regarding the issue of bussing (assuming Scumreading is scum, which I believe is all but proven now via him not being quickhammered), it's

MUCH

more likely that Xtox/Auro is bussing Scumreading compared to Shoshin bussing Scumreading. Shoshin started the 1vs1 against Scumreading, and Auro voted for Scumreading after that. Importantly, Auro's "preferred" lynch for today was Chennisden rather than Scumreading. If Auro is scum, he may have felt he had no choice but to bus Scumreading once Shoshin started the 1vs1 between the two of them (it would have been

HIGHLY

suspicious if he had sided against Shoshin after townreading her the entire game).

Irrelephant townread both Shoshin and Auro, but he has a lot more experience with Shoshin compared to Auro. It's more likely that he was wrong on his Auro read compared to his Shoshin read.

I'm saying all of this because I know a lot of you found Auro to be very towny up until recently, but Shoshin is far, far less likely to be scum compared to Xtox/Auro.

My current solve is Xtox/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading for the scumteam.

[volxen]

Chennisden has also been more towny than Auro lately, and he has definitely been more towny than Xtox.

[volxen]

My current solve is Xtox/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading for the scumteam.

Finally you get there.

I've been thinking this since the moment Vedith flipped town.

Yes, I admit I've had some paranoia about your slot, but I don't really have a strong reason to suspect you outside of you self-nominating as scum to try and make yourself look more towny. Suffice to say, if you are scum and that was the goal.... the plan clearly backfired. Which is another reason why it's highly unlikely that you are scum at this point.

But objectively, the nomination lists make a lot more sense from scum!Auro's perspective than scum!Shoshin's perspective (this is why I thought if you were scum you were scum with Auro -- you being scum makes a lot less sense if Auro is town). From Auro's point of view, the three strongest players/threats to him would be you, Irrelephant, and I. I am a threat to him because of our history together, Irrelephant was a threat to him because they have some history together, and you are a threat to him because of your reputation as a strong town player. By nominating the three of us, it was a 100% guarantee that he would take out one of the three greatest threats to him.

The idea with the second nomination list was to make it look like scum "realized their mistake" by nominating three townies in the first nomination list and decided to self-nominate in the second nomination list. This is why the "consensus" was that the second nomination list of {Shoshin, Vedith, Chennisden} was not all-town, a viewpoint that Auro strongly encouraged. When in reality both nomination lists were almost certainly both all-town if Auro is scum. The plan, quite simply, was to setup Vedith and Chennisden as back-to-back misylnches (as I explained in post 2605). You messed that plan up when you started your 1vs1 against Scumreading.

[volxen]

VOTE: Scumreading

[volxen]

VOTE: Scumreading

Finally, holy shit.

I'm town so SR has to flip scum.

Yes, I'm convinced that you are town at this point. There's no need for us to butt heads anymore. And on the off-chance that DoubtingThomas is somehow town, I'm not going to allow him to throw the game.

Suffice to say I think that he just proved that he is scum by voting you in lylo. I don't believe that town!him would actually do that.

[volxen]

I am pretty sad that you are prob just town here

. I would have felt vindicated even if I lost as long as you were scum.

Just lynch me as soon as you can. I will pay the game the rightful effort it deserves from me, but this games just not fun and consequently isnt worth me playing

And yet if you are town and you think Shoshin is probably town, you would have literally just thrown the game if I hadn't stepped in and hammered Scumreading.

[volxen]

I said I would rather lose to scum scumreading than even risk the tiniest chance of losing to shoshin

whats wrong with the logic?

I don't believe that this comes from town!you.

[volxen]

@DoubtingThomas You've essentially done nothing all game long except for endlessly tunnel Shoshin. If you and Auro are scum together, it's clearly a good-cop/bad-cop thing with respect to how you have treated Shoshin's slot (which I know for a fact that Auro likes to do good-cop/bad-cop as scum).

[volxen]

volx you town? or did scum just win.

If I were scum and Scumreading is town I would have quickhammered right after you placed your vote on Scumreading, not say "I'm not going to hammer just yet". I hammered when I did on the 0.000000000000000000001% chance that DoubtingThomas is town because I wasn't going to allow him to throw the game by for voting Shoshin, who I am now fully convinced is town.

[volxen]

I think this is most likely yet another all-town nomination list as well. Here is where I am at:

Locktown: {Alonzo, Shoshin}
Townlean: {Chennisden}
Scum: {Xtoxm, DoubtingThomas}

I think the scumteam is most likely Xtoxm/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading. If not that then Chennisden/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading. I don't think it's Chennisden/Xtoxm/Scumreading because of how aggressive Auro was about wanting to lynch Chennisden on both day four and day five.

[volxen]

if you're so confident in alonzo town, how do you feel about self voting, volx?

I'm not 100% confident in Chennisden being town.

[volxen]

SR seemed a lot more willing to lynch Chenn over you, Volx. Not saying you're scum but when I'm forced to make these subtle decisions I'm looking at every detail. Is there anything in this game outside your scum range?

It's also possible Scumreading was trying to establish false SvS associatives if he figured he was going down anyways. For example, if the scumteam is Chennisden/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading, he may have purposefully ignored the "requests" for him to vote for Xtoxm to make it look like they are SvS.

As far as my scumrange goes, my entire gameplay in this game is arguably outside of my scumrange. I've never played like this before as scum, and in all of my solo scumgames I've been lynched on day 1 or day 2 (except for the one that I replaced out of). I've won some of my solo scumgames, but I've gotten lynched in all of them very early on. The only scumgames where I haven't gotten lynched were Lynchpin (where I hydra'd with Auro + LolWagons + Thor665) and BOP Mafia (where I hydra'd with Auro), and I posted very little in either of those games (I made only one post in BOP Mafia). Auro and LolWagons carried our slot in Lynchpin, and Auro carried our slot in BOP Mafia.

Links to my solo scumgames:

Open 735: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=77119
Newbie 1900: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=77781
Open 740: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=77755
*Newbie 1905: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=77949

*I replaced out of this game.

Links to my hydra scumgames:

Micro 842 (on The Great Wall hydra): https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=78192
Micro 857 -- BOP Mafia (on the Michael Scott hydra): https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=79095

There's also the fact that I would never self-nominate myself against you and Irrelephant when it was highly likely that the two of you would double team me due to your history together. Scum!me could not have predicted that you would prefer to lynch Irrelephant over me due to concerns about him being a well-hidden deepwolf, nor could I have predicted that Irrelephant would be willing to sacrifice himself.

[volxen]

this setup sorta discourages bussing too.

Well Scumreading was definitely bussed one way or another, because Shoshin started the 1vs1 against him. Scum's options were to 1) pick a side between Shoshin and Scumreading (and it would be hard for either of you or Auro to justify voting for Shoshin over scumreading) or 2) start another 1vs1 against someone else and try to get that person lynched instead of Scumreading. Either way, refusing to bus Scumreading would be a highly risky play for the scumteam.

I hammered Scumreading at the time that I did because DoubtingThomas forced my hand when he voted for Shoshin.

[volxen]

Volx, do not ever talk to me about what's possible, only what's probable.

That's what I was implying though. That it's highly improbable that I would self-nominate myself against you and Irrelephant as scum. And that it's highly probable that I am town here, as my gameplay here is much more inline with my town meta than my scum meta.

Regarding whether it's more probable that Scumreading 1) refused to vote for Xtoxm because they are scumbuddies or 2) refused to vote for Xtoxm to make it

look

like they are scumbuddies, yes it's more probable that 1) is the case, I just haven't completely ruled out 2) because scum do try to establish false SvS associatives by doing things like that. I still think a Xtoxm/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading scumteam is more probable than a Chennisden/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading scumteam.

Things that suggest that Xtoxm/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading is a highly probable scumteam include 1) Auro talking about how scum!Shoshin would "bus heavily", which to me looked like he was setting up a defense for himself in case he ever ended up in a 1vs1 against Shoshin, 2) Auro defending Scumreading when the perspective slip was brought up, 3) Auro saying that DoubtingThomas is "probscum" while simultaneously never trying to get him lynched, 4) Auro saying that Shohshin leading mislynches is scum-indicative for her because she is "really, really good at town" (i.e., he BOPed her), 5) Auro was aggressive about wanting to lynch Chennisden on both day four and day five, and 6) Auro suggested that I should take Vedith's "dying read" of DoubtingThomas being town into account:

I'm not sold on the perspective slips from SR in a vacuum, feels like he's not expressing him clearly; I have ~reasons to believe this can come from town!him.

Volxen, DT is probscum to me from two primary perspectives.

1. PoE: I have you as town from your analysis (if you're scum, you've suddenly expanded a lot on your scumrange; and there's another towntell I won't reveal atm). Shoshin is town for a host of reasons - if she's scum she's wayyyy outside her personal scumrange and I doubt that's the case. Alonzo's town. Leaves a pool of {DT, SR, Vedith, Chennisden} and I've started to feel Vedith town this gameday.
2. Agenda-driven play: I feel the nominations were explicitly to Target Shoshin and get her out of the game; and DT's transparently crusading against Shoshin.
3. Convenient play: Feel like DT settled on a Shoshin tunnel from early game and doesn't seem like he's doing much else. To be fair, though, Shoshin is a power player who manages to control lynches from BoP and players like RC/Shoshin influence the gamestate making it slightly harder to push elsewhere for other slots; regardless I think my point still holds validity.

Way past my bedtime. I'll be back in the morning. I think Chen is the correct lynch, and if not, SR. Vedith's reads were off.

Volxen, re: DT - are you completely unfazed by Vedith's dying reads? He had DT as a top townread.

I voted them so at this point your lynch options are me or SR. If one of us is town, the game's over.

This looks like a slip to me. Can you spot the mistake?

Volxen, individually I'm a lot more confident in SR being scum than Shoshin. In a 1v1 between them two, I'm always going to drive the lynch towards SR.

Read post 2696. I think Shoshin has reasons to bus heavily at this point, if she's scum.

If Shoshin's scum who would her partners be?
I doubt DT would be a partner. Chennisden is a maybe. You are potentially, but I think you're town + her frustration with you doesn't feel SvS.

Don't think so

The major argument for scum!her is BoP. She's really, really good at town, so a string of mislynches is scum indicative. Even if you argue that D2/4 were nominated, she established scumreads on Chennisden and Vedith as well - and Vedith also flipped town.

[volxen]

y'all wanna towncase yourselves

like uh im town for D5

so am i
anything else?

What about your day five play makes you likely to be town?

[volxen]

If no one votes its RNG right?

This is correct.

@mod Can we also decide on an RNG lynch by having a majority of us vote for it, so we don't have to wait out the deadline?

For example if four people did "VOTE: RNG", would you accept that as a hammer and end the day early with an RNG lynch?

[volxen]

GOT THE JOB

Congratulations!

[volxen]

Maybe we let DT vote first?

how about

no

if DT votes thats a scumclaim

He arguably claimed scum the moment that he voted for Shoshin over Scumreading in lylo, and then turned around a few minutes later and said that Shoshin is "probably town" after I hammered Scumreading.

I don't even care about this fucking game. I'd rather lose to scum reading who actually plays like a human being than have a 0.01% chance of losing to scum!you.

You are a delusional liar.

VOTE: shoshin

VOTE: Scumreading

I am pretty sad that you are prob just town here. I would have felt vindicated even if I lost as long as you were scum.

Just lynch me as soon as you can. I will pay the game the rightful effort it deserves from me, but this games just not fun and consequently isnt worth me playing

Let's not get sidetracked by this nomination list. The scumteam is still Xtoxm/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading. Lynching both Xtoxm and DoubtingThomas is the path to victory.

[volxen]

Maybe we let DT vote first?

how about

no

if DT votes thats a scumclaim

He arguably claimed scum the moment that he voted for Shoshin over Scumreading in lylo, and then turned around a few minutes later and said that Shoshin is "probably town" after I hammered Scumreading.

I don't even care about this fucking game. I'd rather lose to scum reading who actually plays like a human being than have a 0.01% chance of losing to scum!you.

You are a delusional liar.

VOTE: shoshin

VOTE: Scumreading

I am pretty sad that you are prob just town here. I would have felt vindicated even if I lost as long as you were scum.

Just lynch me as soon as you can. I will pay the game the rightful effort it deserves from me, but this games just not fun and consequently isnt worth me playing

Let's not get sidetracked by this nomination list.

The scumteam is still Xtoxm/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading. Lynching both Xtoxm and DoubtingThomas is the path to victory.

Yup

that's why I want an RNG lynch because 1) its funny and 2) it does the same thing anyways

DT scum, xtoxm maybe

DT def goes first.

So you are 100% on DoubtingThomas being scum, and you think the last scum is either Xtoxm or Alonzo? Is that where you are at currently?

[volxen]

Do you agree with volx 3064 shosh?

What do you think about my analysis? Do you believe that the scumteam is Xtoxm/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading?

[volxen]

Today’s lynch is in between me / Shoshin, there’s no reason to start any other duels

, this is the lynch with the most information.

Look at xtoxm’s scum team. Auro didn’t give any opinion on my slot other than “you’re active lurking” and it’s the sole reason I’m a push this game. I was not active lurking. I’ve explained the situation.

And now he is convicted I’m scum, only in LyLo and doesn’t doubt shoshin at all. What does that say to you?

Xtoxm also has a scum team in which shoshin isn’t included.

The "there's no reason to start any other duels" was in response to me talking about wanting to start a 1vs1 against DoubtingThomas. Scumreading knew everyone's alignment. He knew that I am town. If DoubtingThomas is also town, why would he actively discourage me from starting a 1vs1 against DoubtingThomas? If he could have gotten me to vote for DoubtingThomas, that would have been such an easy path to victory for him if both DT and I are town. Much easier than trying to get Shoshin lynched. At this point in the game, he must have accepted the reality that he was badly losing his 1vs1 against Shoshin and was most likely going down. If DoubtingThomas and I are both town, he would have either encouraged me to start a 1vs1 against DT or not commented on it at all. Not actively discourage it.

He actively discouraged it because DoubtingThomas is his partner, and he knew that he was going down and didn't want it to become 100% confirmed that at least one of {Volxen, DoubtingThomas} is scum.

And here he discouraged me from starting a 1vs1 against DoubtingThomas yet again:

Chennis, you have info on me and shoshin and how the game went.

Getting into a completely new 1v1 and waiting for them to talk is, for one, time consuming

And two, unnecessary

We’ve already spent a few days on our encounter, there’s no reason to start a new one

As you said, 1 scum has to be in between shoshin and I

[volxen]

I will post more later on how I think DoubtingThomas is scum regardless of Scumreading's alignment, even if I reduce the number of assumptions that I initially made.

That being said, @Scumreading are you outright refusing to vote for DoubtingThomas today?

Volx, lynching Shoshin is the play here. This IS the safest lynch. Depending on the nominees tomorrow I'll be able to confirm my reads on DT and Auro.

Right now, there's no reason on why I would vote DT. He's done nothing this game phase and it is hard sorting him as it is.

I am ten times more confident in a Shoshin lynch and there's no reason to abstain that. This is a SvT and it would make no sense for me to drop this. Shoshin is lockscum and she's the safest lynch, at least for me. I can tell it's hard for people to sort our roles, but the game play until now should give you indications to our alignments. This battle WILL have to take place regardless if we lynch another scum now, but this is, once again, the safest option for me. She's pushing my mislynch today based on Vedith's meta read which was my activity, she doesn't have a case on me, I've made a case on her that she completely disregarded and said I won't comment on it, yet when chennis says "Scum reading, you should make a case on Shoshin", Shoshin said "

If he were to make a case

, I'd point out any rhetorical thoughts", but she didn't. She saw my case . She ignored it and she didn't want to bring the fact that I've made a case on her so that chennis will be inclined to vote me. That's scum af. She's trying to pressure people into voting me, like chennisden, which is the easiest to persuade. She won't try to make you or Alonzo vote me because you guys probably won't and she knows that. She just needs chennis to place his vote and that's gg.

Interesting that he said, "Depending on the nominees tomorrow I'll be able to confirm my reads on DT and Auro" in response to my post that he quoted here, when my post was only about DoubtingThomas and made no mention of Auro. And this was the third time he discouraged a DoubtingThomas wagon.

Aside from that, in the above post he is acting as if he still needs to sort Auro, despite previously saying that the two scum on his wagon were Shoshin and Auro. As pointed out on day five, Scumreading refused all requests to vote for Auro even after Auro should have been confirmed scum from his point of view (if SR were town):

Auro and Shoshin are on my wagon and somehow I'm not quickhammered. Which means that they are the 2 scums waiting for a townie to place their vote so the third one can quickhammer.

[volxen]

So:

1) Scumreading actively discouraged me from voting for DoubtingThomas in lylo.

2) Scumreading refused to vote for Auro in lylo and tunneled on Shoshin when his was wagon {Shoshin, Auro}.

If DT and I are both town, it would have been in his interest for me to vote for DT. If Shoshin and Auro are both town, it would have made sense for him to consider switching gears and start pushing Auro instead of Shoshin, especially since he was already badly losing his 1vs1 against Shoshin.

Him discouraging me from starting a 1vs1 against DoubtingThomas and refusing to vote for Auro in lylo makes sense if they are both his partners.

[volxen]

I voted them so at this point your lynch options are me or SR. If one of us is town, the game's over.

This looks like a slip to me. Can you spot the mistake?

I voted them so at this point your lynch options are me or SR. If one of us is town, the game's over.

Scum slip? Oopsies, thought you were town. At least from your own pov.

Guess I’m the dedicated mislynch that Volxen was talking about

VOTE: Shoshin

She didn’t follow through with the chennis lynch to mislynch me. If Vedith wouldn’t have flipped, you guys wouldn’t have pushed me.

Now Shoshin has a reason to push as well.

With the people that townread me being dead, this mislynch is the easiest for her (RC repped out and Irrelephant died)

Auro and Scumreading both shade Shoshin over the same supposed "scumslip".

[volxen]

Best reason for lynching Volx today: to prevent Auro's mislynch later.

Here, Shoshin is already defending Auro. I do have to admit it's a bold move.

SR's locktown.
The scum are within DT, Clem, Vedith, and Fusco.

Pay attention to her words.

If DT's town, he's letting a personal grudge get in the way of this game.

In this post, her tendency is to believe DT is scum, but she didn't really push this idea throughout the game.

DT pushing my lynch because says he can't work with me is pretty scummy.

She pointed this out, but has never pushed DT, at all.

Sorry I'm lynching you Irrel if you're town, I'm just paranoid because you townread Fusco.

This is a bad reasoning, also, you said this after this:

I'm never voting you, Irrel.

I said this on D1.

Yet, you voted because you didn't agree on a scum read?

Auro, where's your vote on Fusco?

Here, she's pushing the first mislynch and gets Auro in to vote with her because the majority of people were already scum reading Fus, so this is a smart move, not necessarily risky.

How am I scummier than Vedith/Chenn?

Now with this, I remember the nomination list. This was perfect for Shoshin, as she was being town read by town. In retrospect, that lynch list advantages Shoshin in every way. Chennisden is an easy mislynch bait because of him being a lurker, just like me. Now, watch what happens next:

Vedith, please explain in greater detail why you're scumreading SR.

She's still town reading me for her own reasons that she never mentioned.

I've lost motivation to play mafia in general.

At this moment, she was being voted and pressured by a lot of people. This is AtE and she used it to escape a lynch.

How do you know SR is scum?

She's still town reading me...

It's possible that SR's scum but I'm not going to get there is nobody gives strong reasons for the read. "Coasting" isn't sufficient when that's half the game.

Now, watch this progression. An 8 post difference in between theses 2 post. This reading progression is really off. She was already preparing my mislynch for today in this moment, because of my lurkiness. She needed me alive because I sheeped her for a large portion of the game.

Lynch Vedith.
If he's town, lynch SR tomorrow.

This is where that whole case was debated. Of course I was paranoid, again, this seemed like she was preparing my mislynch. And it looks like it happened.

Town Vedith doesn't keep making this argument that I mislynched Irrel when I townread the guy.

According to my earlier posts, you lynched Irrel because "Sorry irrel, you townreading Fus is making me paranoid" after saying Irrel would never be a lynch for you. What a weak reasoning to escape a nominee list in which you've placed yourself.

I still think it's the DT/Chen/Vedith team. It's the least complicated solve. And they gave us a nice gift by nominating themselves to help us test it during even phase.

She didn't really talk about DT too much. Look at this list of scum reads and then look at the nominee list from yesterday. Does that ring any bells? Why isn't she pushing chennisden today? Because she abuses Vedith's meta read on me, even though he didn't even discuss it. She's pushing a scum agenda on me based on meta that she hasn't read.

This is where I'm at for now, reads will most likely change post-flip.

Why are you scumreading me for saying my reads might change post-flip?

This is where I'm at for now, reads will most likely change post-flip.

The phrase "reads will most likely change post-flip" implies an informed perspective about the flip. Do you realize that?

These two posts were distorted and she tried to portray me as scum, when, in reality, what I've said made perfect sense.

VOTE: chennisden

VOTE: Chennisden
Let's just get on with this.

She's pushing her alleged "scum read". If you think about it, the nominee list, in retrospect, after Vedith's flip,was heavily in her favor. She needed to vote whoever and she'd be fine.

VOTE: Vedith

This proves my point above.

VOTE: DoubtingThomas

This is the weirdest vote and it is a huge bluff. She has always mentioned DT is scum, yet she throws a vote this late in the stage for WIFOM, and then immediately votes for me. She didn't say anything regarding her DT vote.

VOTE: scum reading

>Bad push on Irre's excitement and refusal to answer my questions asking why
>Refusal to explain stances
>"I'm not scum, I'm disappointed in you"
>"If you want to push my lynch I'll push a lynch on you"
>"It's absurd you think I'm scum"

Also:

When I beat you as scum, RC, I'm going to be so town that you're going to be telling everyone never to lynch me as I lead your mislynch.

I get the feeling she's deliberately not putting in effort to look towny from this quote, and for some reason thinks that should get her townread?

Trusting RC + I'm fine with a DT lynch independently anyway.

Why are you trusting RC? What're your independent reasons to lynch DT? What's your preferred lynch?

Hey DT, you're not going to get RC lynched today so why don't you vote someone else?

DT's scum. He shouldn't be scumreading me at this point.

I'm locktown on Auro but otherwise okay reads.

Shoshin, I'd like for you to respond to my earlier question re: when I became locktown for you.

While rereading, post 122.

SR's locktown.

The scum are within DT, Clem, Vedith, and Fusco.

Irrel, or Auro, or Alonzo, or someone, please ask DT what his reads are. It appears he has none.

Fuck it, I'm done with this game.

I'll stick around to sheep Auro since he's the only person making sense.

SR is scum, Volx. There's no getting around that simple fact.

I voted them so at this point your lynch options are me or SR. If one of us is town, the game's over.

Look at all these posts. Notice all the commentary on DT's slot, yet she never pushed him.

Shoshin also locktowns auro and claims she'll sheep his vote and lately they've distanced from each other when in comparison with the early game.

Shoshin's claiming that I'm scum, yet her scum team was DT/Chenn/Fus,

but she's never pushed DT. Which makes sense. DT is lurking as he is, if it boils down to a moment where shoshin / auro are pressured, DT is an easy bus. That's why she didn't push him yet.

After he got into his 1vs1 against Shoshin, Scumreading started to aggressively paint Shoshin/Auro/DoubtingThomas as the scumteam. It makes sense that he would heavily shade and distance himself from both of his partners (Auro and DT) if he figures he is going to lose his 1vs1 against Shoshin anyways.

[volxen]

So we lynch Volx today & DT tomorrow if Volx flips town?

If this is what it takes to convince you that I am right then so be it, but I don't see why you "need" to see my flip to become convinced that DT is scum. He is obvscum, and I've been obvtown and my gameplay in this game is consistent with my town meta.

[volxen]

@Xtoxm, Who do you intend to vote for?

[volxen]

Shoshin, I thought you and I were on the same page. I guess not?

Where I stand is this: Flavor Leaf and DoubtingThomas are both 100% scum. I will not back down from this. It's painfully obvious at this point.

Do you not trust me in lylo, Shoshin? I literally don't care which of Flavor Leaf or DoubtingThomas you want to lynch first.

[volxen]

I’ll try and do some VCA to get me in this game.

But the way shoshin’s playing looks like he knows all 3 of the nominees are town, and the fact he said me over DT shows the team is just likely DT/Shoshin.

Just... no. Shoshin is obvtown at this point by her play. And besides, there was no reason for Shoshin to hardbus Scumreading in lylo. If Shoshin is scum she could have probably fairly easily won a 1vs1 against any of {DoubtingThomas, Scumreading, Chennisden}. So even if she was scum with two of them she would simply start a 1vs1 against the one that wasn't her scumbuddy.

Auro (and then Xtoxm), on the the other hand, basically had no choice but to bus Scumreading because Shoshin started the 1vs1. He was hoping to push a Chennisden mislynch so he could win without bussing, but that didn't work out for him.

[volxen]

Shoshin, DT scum has much more equity than FL scum

Though FL scum still has lots of equity

The difference between the two of them really is that DT has been obvious scum, and Auro wasn't obvious scum. Which is to be expected because Auro is never obvious when he is scum. But if you look closely at Auro's ISO and interactions, there are definitely scummy and agenda-driven things in there, some of which I have pointed out.

[volxen]

Yes, I know we're on the same page, Volx.

Why are you suddenly assuming we're not?

Same page as in your 100% convinced that both FL and DT are scum? OK then.

[volxen]

Xtoxm replacing our screwed them, and now they’re upset.

He replaced out because he saw that he was losing badly.

[volxen]

Xtoxm replacing our screwed them, and now they’re upset.

He replaced out because he saw that he was losing badly.

So you’re claiming he tactically replaced out?

I think you and Shoshin just painted the picture that he was scum and he got annoyed people saw him as scum. He does that.

I mean it's possible his replace out was not game related (e.g., he got busy IRL), sure. But he posted very little, got prodded soon after he replaced in, didn't respond to my case on scum!Auro (his predecessor) at all, and then replaced out. He didn't even remotely try to defend himself other than saying "I'm town". And he immediately called the scumteam as Alonzo/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading soon after he replaced in, which is suspect because Alonzo is more-or-less a consensus townread.

But Xtoxm's replace out is a minor point in the grand scheme of things. There is enough evidence in Auro's ISO and interactions to confirm that he is scum.

[volxen]

So I guess FL has settled on the strategy of painting the scumteam as Shoshin/Volxen/Scumreading and trying to hard pocket Alonzo and Chennisden.

[volxen]

Well, no, it’s not confirmed. I’m not scum.

You’ve been pushing NAI posts like they’re some confscum posts, at least what I checked in the later half of your ISO, and going “oh, yeah, that never comes from a town perspective.” Which is just flat out not true.

You push the scum weee forced to bus. Scum aren’t ever forced to bus.

I obviously can’t speak for my predeccessors, but Auro isn’t a weak player either. He was nominated for Rising Star, and you’re pushing a case of surface level scum play, which neither Auro or Xtoxm are. Xtoxm literally just won an epic scum game in a game that got nominated for game of the year.

They aren’t surface level players.

I didn't say Auro is weak, it took me a while to get to a 100% scumread on him after all. But that doesn't mean his scumplay is perfect and he is immune to getting caught. He had most of the game (Shoshin, Irrelephant, RadiantCowbells/Alonzo, Chennisden, me for a while, etc.) convinced that he was town until recently. He is excellent at scum, but not perfect.

I mean what exactly is the argument that you are making here? That I must be wrong in my conclusion that Auro is scum (despite all of the evidence), because Auro is so good at scum that he will never get caught, and the fact that I am convinced that he is scum means that he is town because I would never suspect him of being scum if he were actually scum? He's very good at scum, but he simply got caught this time. It's that simple.

[volxen]

@Shoshin, do you really want to give control of the lynch to FL? He knows he can't manipulate me and turn me against you. He's going to try his hardest to appeal to Alonzo and/or Chennisden in lylo if I am lynched today. That's why he has "settled" on them as "townreads", because he knows he isn't going to win over either you or me.

He's most likely going to start lylo by voting for DT and bussing him so he can get "towncred" before he takes you on in a 1vs1.

[volxen]

Yes, I know we're on the same page, Volx.

Why are you suddenly assuming we're not?

Same page as in your 100% convinced that both FL and DT are scum? OK then.

You didn't answer my question. What made you assume we're not on the same page with respect to FL/DT?

Because in some of your earlier posts, it came across like you were 100% on the Auro/Xtoxm/FL slot being scum, but weren't sure which of DT or I is the third scum:

I'm probably voting Volx today.

I don't intend on an RNG vote.

I'll be voting the person I think most likely to be scum.

So we lynch Volx today & DT tomorrow if Volx flips town?

[volxen]

And your post to Shoshin screams you helping a potential partner.

There’s zero reason for me as scum to push you as the lynch today either, because a green flip just makes me look bad.

And if I were scum, keeping both Alonzo and Chennis alive is suboptimal because then I have to convince of a separate scum pairing rather than just relying on one of them, like Chennis.

I am objectively town here, and it sucks for the scum team who had my slot completely pegged as a mislynch.

How is pushing my lynch today suboptimal for scum!you? Both Shoshin and I are convinced that the scumteam is you and DT. To win this game you eventually have to reach a point where you can get a townie to vote for another townie in lylo. You aren't going to get Shoshin or I to do that, so you need to convince Alonzo and/or Chennisden to vote for another townie in lylo. Just going by the numbers, that's twice as likely to happen if both Alonzo and Chennisden are alive in lylo as opposed to if one of them gets lynched today. So clearly, it's bad for you if one of them gets lynched today.

You are already hard pushing the narrative that the remaining scum are two out of {Volxen, Shoshin, DoubtingThomas}. Me flipping green doesn't hinder your plan, because then you will just start pushing Shoshin/DoubtingThomas specifically as scum.

Here is what I think your plan is specifically, based on the current state of the game:

Day 6: You push for my lynch today, which you will probably succeed at because scum has a great deal of control over who gets lynched on even-numbered days.

Day 7: Shoshin will vote for you in the beginning of lylo, and you will vote for DT. You already know that Chennisden is more suspicious of DT than you, so you will work with that to delay your 1vs1 against Shoshin. There's a good chance that you will succeed in getting DT lynched instead of yourself.

Day 8: The nomination list, once again, will be all-town, meaning it will be {Shoshin, Alonzo, Chennisden}. One of Alonzo or Chennisden will be lynched, probably Chennisden.

Day 9: The final 3 will most likely be {Shoshin, Alonzo, FL}. At this point your 1vs1 against Shoshin is inevitable, and you will just appeal to Alonzo as hard as you can because that's all you can do.

[volxen]

Also, if i were scum, and put myself not on the nominations, I’d be screwed in 3p lylo.

And in that scenario, I lynch shoshin 100% of the time as scum, and have to deal with alonzo/Chen, which also effectively endgames me.

That’s flawed logic by you, and simply surface level.

It's the best that you can do given the state of the game. You replaced into a scum slot in a game where scum is already losing badly. Do I think that you and DT are actually going to win? No, but you are going to try to as hard as you can, and that involves trying to get Alonzo and/or Chennisden to vote for another townie in lylo. I think you realize that bussing DT is an absolute necessity, because you stand no chance of winning a 1vs1 against Shoshin before DT goes down. I believe that you and DT have already started to discuss this, and he is aware of the fact that you will be bussing him. And you won't self-nominate on day 8 because it's too risky for you to do that.

Shoshin is going to vote for you, and you and DT are going to vote for each other, and you're going to shift attention away from Shoshin vs you towards you vs DT instead.

[volxen]

@Alonzo, We really need to know where you stand on everything if you are going to lylo.

In a 1vs1 of Shoshin vs FL, who would you vote for?

In a 1vs1 of Shoshin vs DT, who would you vote for?

[volxen]

By the way FL, how are you so certain that both Chennisden and Alonzo are town if you haven't read through the game? I have them both as strong townreads, but I've actually read through the entire game.

[volxen]

@FL, Your stance towards Shoshin and I doesn't make sense. Let's start with a basic premise:

Scum will not bus unless it's really necessary. Again, Scum will not bus unless it's really necessary.

Shoshin took control of the day five lynch by starting a 1vs1 against Scumreading. If you are going to argue that Shoshin is scum, then you need to establish why she could not win without bussing scumreading:

Any of {Scumreading, DoubtingThomas, Chennisden} would have been easy lynches to push on day five. All of these players were considered scummy prior to day five. Chennisden didn't start to become towny until later in day five. Of course, we now know that Scumreading was scum. So:

If the scumteam is Shoshin/Volxen/Scumreading, we could have easily mislynched Chennisden or DoubtingThomas. Auro was already onboard with lynching Chennisden at the beginning of day five, and Alonzo repeatedly wanted to lynch Clemency/Chennisden throughout the game.

If the scumteam is Shoshin/Alonzo/Scumreading, they could have easily mislynched Chennisden or DoubtingThomas.

If the scumteam is Shoshin/Chennisden/Scumreading, they could have easily mislynched DoubtingThomas.

If the scumteam is Shoshin/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading, they could have easily mislynched Chennisden.

If the scumteam is Shoshin/Auro/Scumreading, they could have easily mislynched Chennisden or DoubtingThomas (of course you aren't going to argue for this being the scumteam).

Chennisden would have been a

very

easy mislynch to push on day five. DoubtingThomas would have been too, but maybe a bit less so. The point being, Shoshin being scum makes no sense because she could have easily won on day five without bussing Scumreading.

Now let's look at scumteam combinations with me:

Volxen/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading -- This doesn't make sense, because I initially resisted Shoshin's 1vs1 against Scumreading and wanted to start a 1vs1 of my own against DoubtingThomas in lylo on day five. Why would I initially refuse to vote for one of my scumbuddies (Scumreading), only to try and start a separate 1vs1 against my other scumbuddy (DoubtingThomas)? Even if Scumreading hadn't been lynched on day five, the game would have inevitably gone back to the 1vs1 of Shoshin vs Scumreading. If I am scum, the only reason for me to try to start a 1vs1 against DT is to try and get him mislynched and deflect attention away from Scumreading. It makes no sense for scum!me to draw attention to scum!DT like that when SR was already in the hot seat and was most likely going down anyways.

Especially considering that I hammered Scumreading right after DoubtingThomas voted for Shoshin

. If I were scum, if anything it would be better for me to leave the thread for a while and see if DT could get anyone else to join him in voting for Shoshin, not immediately hammer Scumreading right after DT voted for Shoshin.

Volxen/Auro/Scumreading -- This could explain why I wanted to start a 1vs1 against DT (to get him mislynched), although it wouldn't make sense for me to hammer Scumreading just after DT (a townie) voted for Shoshin (a townie). If this were the case, I would wait for Auro and SR to get on so we could quickhammer Shoshin. Of course, you aren't going to argue that this is the scumteam anyways.

Volxen/Chennisden/Scumreading -- This could explain why I wanted to start a 1vs1 against DT (to get him mislynched), although it wouldn't make sense for me to hammer Scumreading just after DT (a townie) voted for Shoshin (a townie). If this were the case, I would wait for Chennisden and SR to get on so we could quickhammer Shoshin.

Volxen/Alonzo/Scumreading -- This could explain why I wanted to start a 1vs1 against DT (to get him mislynched), although it wouldn't make sense for me to hammer Scumreading just after DT (a townie) voted for Shoshin (a townie). If this were the case, I would wait for Alonzo and SR to get on so we could quickhammer Shoshin.

Volxen/Shoshin/Scumreading -- I already explained above why Shoshin individually doesn't make sense as scum, because regardless of whether she is partnered with me or not, she had at least one easy mislynch she could have pushed (Chennisden or DoubtingThomas) without needing to bus Scumreading.

So really neither of Shoshin or I make sense as scum, either individually or as partners, unless you want to make the argument that one of us or both of us deliberately engaged in sub-optimal scum play (bussing Scumreading when it was completely unnecessary to do so).

From your point of view, if you are town, Alonzo/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading should make a lot more sense to you as a scumteam than any combination of Shoshin/Volxen/Scumreading, Shoshin/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading, or Volxen/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading. It would at least explain why Alonzo was hesitant and didn’t vote in lylo.

[volxen]

As a reminder FL:

I don't even care about this fucking game. I'd rather lose to scum reading who actually plays like a human being than have a 0.01% chance of losing to scum!you.

You are a delusional liar.

VOTE: shoshin

VOTE: Scumreading

The first post is where DT voted for Shoshin in lylo, and the second post is where I voted for and hammered SR in lylo. I literally hammered SR

one minute

after DT voted for Shoshin.

[volxen]

How do you feel about lynching Alonzo, Volx?

I'm agreeable to that if that's what you want to do.

[volxen]

@DT, if you are town I should be nearly 100% confirmed town from your point of view.

I already pointed out how I am objectively 100% cleared from being scum with any of {Alonzo, Chennisden, Auro}

. Because if I were scum with any of them, we would have quickhammered Shoshin in lylo after you voted for her. So I can't possibly be scum with any of them.

So from your point of view, if you are town, just going by lylo votes alone, the only way I could be scum is if I am scum with Shoshin. While technically possible, this is highly improbable and I don't think that town!you would ever seriously believe this to be the case.

From your point of view, if you are town, why aren't you leaning towards Alonzo/Auro/Scumreading as the scumteam? You voting for me here does you no good. If the scumteam really is Alonzo/Auro/Scumreading, me getting lynched today just means that you are going to get mislynched either on day 7 or day 9, because we are never going to lynch Alonzo over you in actual lylo.

If you are town, today is your chance to prove it by voting for Alonzo, because me flipping green is not going to help you at all and will cost us the game if the scumteam is Alonzo/Auro/Scumreading.

[volxen]

If DT's town, who between Alonzo/Chenn is most likely to be aligned with Auro?

I think Alonzo is definitely more likely to be scum than Chennisden going by actual play. Chennisden's play since mid day five has been fairly towny. The only reason why I have townlocked Alonzo is because of the way in which RC replaced out, not because of his actual play. It's possible I've been giving too much credit to Alonzo over the RC replace out.

But I could see either Alonzo/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading or Alonzo/Auro/Scumreading as being the scumteam if Alonzo actually is scum. The latter being more likely because FL was extremely scummy.