Mini 2065 - Access Point [Endgame]

[northsidegal]

hey guys!

[northsidegal]

so i think you know what this means, yeah?

[northsidegal]

guiltylion is offended that you forgot about him

[northsidegal]

he just told me right now in scumchat

[northsidegal]

trick question, scum this game are "traitor agents" so they don't

have

a scumchat!

scumclaim VOTE: RC

[northsidegal]

by the way, you know why i joined this game, right?

[northsidegal]

i'm being ignored

p-edit: :hmm:

[northsidegal]

i replaced in when i really do not have the time to play a game because i think this setup is particularly suited to me. ideally i would get sent today and thus wouldn't have to be around for the rest of the game until a theoretical lylo, although failing that i imagine that i'd also just get killed night one and similarly be out pretty quickly.

[northsidegal]

nihao ma

我很好！你呢？

i thought that went without saying. I hoped there was a reason involving you townreading me and wanting to play a game TvT as well.

i certainly have no desire to play against you as scum, but i haven't really read much of this game beyond the intro posts about the vig claims and such

[northsidegal]

Okay, I understand the setup and the Day Vig thing. With both of them outted now we can figure out who to send on the mission. We should vote on the two people we think that is town and then vote RadiantCowbells. RadiantCowbells is 100% town from the way he's acting so it's better to send him last. As long as we have RadiantCowbells on the mission there's a high chance that we can win. Cuz if it's revealed that somebody in the mission was mafia then we know it's one of the other two and not RC. Sorry I haven't posted I was on the site but I wasn't looking at this thread.

[northsidegal]

i don't think the suicidal vigs should shoot at all, or at the very least i think only one of them should shoot.

i think that's probably the easiest way we lose this game – having them both shoot town.

[northsidegal]

(that was established a long time ago)

-shrug-

was kind of reading backwards there.

i think insomnia is town. thoughts?

wouldn't disagree, although i'd wait and see a bit more to if anything changes.

[northsidegal]

although i'd wait and see a bit more to if anything changes.

but I want to solve this game now

does it really make a difference?

rosterfoster and drvr >rand scum

without hypothetically commenting on my read one way or another on DDL at this time

meh on roster. probably on drvr.

[northsidegal]

If this continues you know it probably means neither of you are sent to the mission today.

if what continues?

[northsidegal]

If this continues you know it probably means neither of you are sent to the mission today.

if what continues?

The two of you townreading each other. I'm aware it's only been expressed one way but still.

did i indicate somewhere that i townread RC?

[northsidegal]

(if you're going to point to the vote, nope)

[northsidegal]

i don't really think i have much of a read on anyone – not anything that i'd feel very comfortable with at this point, at least.

[northsidegal]

That's why I said it was one way at this point.

Not sure I trust nsg's read on you as much as I trust your read on nsg but forcing scum to flip one of you removes the doubt there.

if it's "one-way", as you say, i don't think your logic still holds up. go through it again for me?

[northsidegal]

Not sure I trust nsg's read on you as much as I trust your read on nsg but forcing scum to flip one of you removes the doubt there.

what would you say you know about my meta? rc's meta? just wondering.

[northsidegal]

you know that question is entirely context dependent, right?

[northsidegal]

do i think that i would townread anyone correctly in 3 way lylo? i'm not sure. i believe in myself, of course, but nobody goes into a game expecting to lose it.

p-edit: i don't know. haven't had any recent experience really

[northsidegal]

VOTE: Insomnia

This is 100% town.

mind elaborating? you're being pretty concise here.

Yes no I got that when he voted her. I still think his read will change. RC will nail his read down near EoD.

you think that his read on me will change? does that mean... that you're scumreading me?

like, i can understand if you've noticed a tendency for RC to switch his reads around, but i'm wondering about why specifically you think he'll start scumreading me. seems fairly arbitrary?

i replaced in when i really do not have the time to play a game because i think this setup is particularly suited to me. ideally i would get sent today and thus wouldn't have to be around for the rest of the game until a theoretical lylo, although failing that i imagine that i'd also just get killed night one and similarly be out pretty quickly.

So basically you were able to town read vedith after 3 posts?

no, i'm not saying that i townread vedith and that's why i replaced in. i replaced in because of the setup and just relied on the numbers that i'd roll town.

[northsidegal]

i don't actually think this game will end up being all that difficult, at the moment.

[northsidegal]

To add onto that, RC hasn't tested the waters with any pushes yet and I feel he hones his reads that way. With that in mind he's only focused on setup spec at the moment which tells me his reads aren't solid yet. I don't feel his read on you is exempt from that

do you think that you need to follow RC to be able to townread me? i feel like you've already indicated that you don't actually have a read on RC. if that's the case, could you explain a bit about why you would feel comfortable following him, then? regardless of his read on me, that is.

what's your read on me yourself, anyways? you kind of ignored my question here :<

[northsidegal]

ah, gotcha. i didn't really get from your posts that you had a read on me.

and don't worry, i'm pretty sure i get what you're talking about.

[northsidegal]

@BRVR

, what do you think of the setup? any reads so far?

[northsidegal]

i can understand that. i'm being quiet about some reads myself until i can see more.

[northsidegal]

UNVOTE:

It's actually a bad play to access point NSG day one

strongly disagree. would like to hear why you think so.

[northsidegal]

the short answer is that i don't like the idea of you getting access pointed, me getting nightkilled, and then the remaining town being left to their own devices to determine who to send.

i trust in people's abilities. i also trust that i think we can come up with a large enough pool of townies today to win.

I fully believe that I should be sent today and I'm not looking forward to this if you plan to fight me on it.

[northsidegal]

do you understand why I feel the way that I do without me explaining it?

NSG I literally am not capable of fighting you on this. If you really want AP you're going. But I think that you owe it to me to put yourself in my shoes first.

i can understand the frustration of being killed night one. that doesn't change that i think sending myself is the best play. sorry.

[northsidegal]

On day 2 a vig shoots roster because he was the one who supported my vote without stating a reason and when he flips town, that clears me as town (or roster had bad reads and I'm scum, but, let's be honest).

?????

[northsidegal]

why, uh

what if roster flips scum

like, why is he assumed to be town

[northsidegal]

[northsidegal]

What? If we go by the same logic, why are you assumed to be town and why should I vote for you? There's no reason for you to be so eager to go in the PT because then RC dies and there's a high chance we send 2 scum. If RC dies and he flips town, then his read on you is most likely good, courtesy of BoP. There's no reason I'd trust either you or RC and I'm not eager to send any of you just yet, there's no reason to. It's beneficial if we kept the both of you here for now. One of you gets nked, post-flip analysis will confirm the other as town / scum depending on the flip and whoever survives will help with town reads. If none of you get nked, then RC's probably scum who tried to put you, his scum bud, on the mission.

i've never said that i'm "assumed" to be town, although i do believe that my play so far has been town-indicative. do you believe that my argument for why i should be selected is just because RC voted for me and i'm not scum, similar to yours?

don't you think it's a little contradictory to in one sentence say that i would be town if RC is town courtesy of burden of proficiency, and then in the next line say that there's no reason that you would trust him? unless there's something that i'm missing there, that is. also, again – just like i said to RCE, i'm not townreading RC and my death would not confirm him as town.

i guess it seems to me like the points you're making with regards to yourself and rosterfoster should apply to almost any other pairing, but it seems like your reasoning is different for other people and i'm not sure why.

[northsidegal]

i'm not townreading RC and my death would not confirm him as town.

feel free to keep your not-townread on me to yourself, thanks.

they can change, has your read on me changed?

not like i'm going out of my way to bring it up.

i understand that fypov the safest play is to not depend on me being town. i'm not going to push myself in the access point pool if we're sending you in because I know you're way more likely to misvote me than anyone else that we can put in. just please stop bursting my happy generally townread bubble.

are you talking to me or insomnia?

i guess it seems to me like the points you're making with regards to yourself and rosterfoster should apply to almost any other pairing, but it seems like your reasoning is different for other people and i'm not sure why

So just because it can apply to other people that makes it wrong?

that's not what i'm saying. i'm saying that it seems to me like the logic you're using with regards to yourself would apply elsewhere, and yet you're not applying it elsewhere – and that's what i'm somewhat confused on.

don't you think it's a little contradictory to in one sentence say that i would be town if RC is town courtesy of burden of proficiency, and then in the next line say that there's no reason that you would trust him?

I actually don't, since you're misreping me. I said IF he FLIPS town, then you're town, but there's no reason for me to trust any of you at the moment BECAUSE none of you flipped. Where's the contradiction?

gotcha. (as an aside, i don't really think misinterpreting what someone said and actively acknowledging that i could be missing something as i did in the very next sentence can really be called "misrepping". not that it really matters, i guess.)

[northsidegal]

when was the last time that i voted you? honest question, not trying to make a point.

[northsidegal]

i had you coalitioned in 833 and didn't vote you despite you pushing me as scum in mini 2036. was townreading you in micro 827 as well.

[northsidegal]

i'm not trying to make you feel bad, RC. my saying that i'm not townreading you isn't some permanent thing – it's a reflection if my current read. it's not as if i don't intend to try to read you. it's not as if i don't

want

to townread you.

[northsidegal]

i would much rather you stay in this game regardless of your alignment and play it with me, especially if you're town.

[northsidegal]

i'll be

really

unhappy with you if you lose though. don't do that.

there's no reason it has to all be on me. i'm not infallible, you know – i appreciate and sometimes need help.

if you replace out in response to that i'll replace out too btw. don't do that. just play the game.

not sure what i would even replace out over. i generally don't like to replace out over in-game things.

[northsidegal]

honestly no clue where you get this idea that i'll lolvote you or something

[northsidegal]

oh yeah I forgot rce existed

so it's not like an active player thing

{rc
nsg
DDL
insomnia
roster
ruirui}

6/11

should be 3 scum in the remainder

for the record i agree on ruirui, ddl, and disagree on roster.

i was actually thinking just yesterday that this might be one of those games that's just sort by postcount to find scum.

[northsidegal]

actually i probably townread RCE more than ddl

not sure if i

dont

townread DDL but i would say he might be my weakest one?

[northsidegal]

i think roster might just be scum.

[northsidegal]

alternative timeline NSG would like to apologize

[northsidegal]

sounds like you're accessing the morphogenetic field

[northsidegal]

but yeah. to be serious, i still want to wait and see how people enter the thread and what kind of reads people come up with.

this is a setup kind of like coalition where scum need to actually be active to have any chance of winning (although i do think this much more townsided than coalition is) so i'm just going to be patient here.

[northsidegal]

whats townie about ddl north

i guess i've just liked his real time interaction with the thread. pretty trite, i guess, but there's a reason he's the weakest of my townreads. i -feel like- he is the sort of player who, as scum, tends more towards more crafted, longer, more thought out posts rather than the posting style he's gone for this game, although i haven't really done the research to be confident in asserting that yet (haven't really had the time, and to tell you the truth i'm spending time i really shouldn't be on this game)

[northsidegal]

yeah, not really.

[northsidegal]

gonna just

VOTE: northsidegal

[northsidegal]

huh, so everyone else doesn't flip like they did in the dragon hunters setup. that makes things a bit more difficult theoretically, but probably balances it given the increased numbers?

not actually sure

[northsidegal]

that is, if the game enters lylo, the people who aren't in lylo don't flip

[northsidegal]

so i think you know what this means, yeah?

what does it mean btw

by the way, you know why i joined this game, right?

why

it was mostly just me saying that i think this setup is pretty suited to me and that i think i should be sent day 1.

but also there was a small element of trying to make RC sweat / nervous if he were scum or something.

[northsidegal]

I'm already feeling bittersweet about your replace in as town

I wonder how much I would have resented it as scum or if I'd have even cared

i wouldn't say that i'm a town leader here. everyone's still looking towards you for direction!

whats the history between you two. i wouldnt expect scum!rc to be affected by that kind of stuff tbh

yeah, he probably wouldn't be. maybe like skitter or the worst would be nervous and i'd get to read some nervousposting in the scum PT post-game, but i don't think there's much actual benefit to it. i guess i just like messing with people like that

[northsidegal]

i think we're in a really good position. pretty sure you only need 6 locktown to have a confirmed win regardless of who scum kills, and i -think- we're close to that?

at the moment i think {ruirui, rce, RC} are all pretty town and scum can only kill one of them.

[northsidegal]

3 confirmed town actually.

lol

oh true

nsg how good r u as scum

depends on who you ask, really.

[northsidegal]

omg guys stop lynching me i'm town!!!!

[northsidegal]

soon

would have posted something relevant given the time to actually read the thread but... don't really have it right now.

[northsidegal]

tomorrow?

[northsidegal]

or if i ignore some stuff i really have to do today but like

i was already going to ask that the next time anyone saw me in this thread they tell me to get back to work. so probably a bad idea there

[northsidegal]

midnight tomorrow is in one minute technically

[northsidegal]

oh timezone dependent i guess

[northsidegal]

literally everyone stop and calm down for a second

[northsidegal]

The vig shot on RC is if he flips scum, then there is a really high chance of NSG being scum with him.

I'm town regardless of whether RC is town or not (although I think that he is). There is no universe in which me and RC are both scum here and the decision is made to send me. It just doesn't happen.

VOTE: drdo
You know what I want lion to check in.
Before that i'm still the best person to send to AP.

What are your reads?

What changed your mind?

It was a guess, I don't meta read.

Explain this? You "guessed" that RC is a great scum player..?

[northsidegal]

NSG he's just scum

Please please please back me up here

I don't townread him in the slightest, no. I also think that he's probably being dishonest about his knowledge of you. I've kind of wanted to say roster/insomnia as some kind of team for a while now, but it's a little surface level for the amount of research i've done.

I'm not going to get into some stupid 30 page 1v1. It doesn't matter. I don't think he should be sent to AP (don't think I ever have).

Does

anybody

agree with what he's saying?

[northsidegal]

@NSG and DrDo, please, give your thoughts on this and let me know if I'm the dumbest town player for this strategy. Thanks.

You shouldn't need to listen to RC to see that I'm town. That seems to be the crux of your point and it's fundamentally flawed.

Like, guess what? RC always gets me dayvigged or hard busses me here if we're both scum. There's no universe in which sending me first is the plan, and especially no universe in which RC openly tells me that he doesn't want himself to be sent along with me because he's concerned that I'll mislynch him.

It's not realistic.

[northsidegal]

Insomnia, I have some completely honest advice for you if you're town. This isn't an attempt to be condescending or to talk down to you – it's literally just advice that I think is very valuable for newer players, and advice that I would have appreciated as a newbie.


This kind of confidence:

Remember RC not touching on my case made on him and how he suddenly caught power when he heard we're dayvigging me. NSG and RC, might as well rep out after I flip

is not warranted. I would say that there are

very few

situations

ever

in which that kind of confidence is warranted.

Speaking generally here and not even commenting on anything specific about this game, there's nothing wrong with

being

wrong, but when you let it derail a game, it becomes a problem. Like, (again, speaking generally) someone could be an amazing town player even if their reads weren't very good at all simply by having the self-awareness to recognize when they're wrong, and the humility to admit when they are wrong.

On a personal level, I can tell you that the more confidently I push something, the more crushing it becomes if I'm wrong. It's not a good feeling. On another level, the more arrogantly you push something, the more people will remember it and lord it over you if you are wrong. It's not "better" to be right if you've pushed something arrogantly as opposed to with the recognition that, as always, you could be wrong. In contrast, it

is

worse, in many people's eyes, to be wrong when you've pushed something arrogantly.

[northsidegal]

You shouldn't need to listen to RC to see that I'm town.

I strongly agree with this statement. I hope that I warm up and see you as town as well independent of RC and TGP

what

are

your own thoughts on me?

[northsidegal]

Insomnia, I find it very hard to believe that you actually believe the things that you're saying. Especially for these quotes:

He has a date under his profile, says he joined since 2013? Call it a wild guess

I'm trying to provide you with a decent strategy, why are you calling my town game trash? It's the best strategy we have and it is infallible.

Just because someone has a 2013 join date, that makes them "the strongest scum player in the lobby"? Why are you lying about your knowledge of RC?

Do you honestly believe that your strategy is infallible? Genuinely?

[northsidegal]

Ok, ignore my push on RC. Why shouldn't we respect the plan that I've provided?

Is it a bad plan? If so, what's bad about it?

If you say my plan is good, then why does RC not want to respect it?

666

I've already told you. Whether or not RC is town has no bearing on my alignment – if you want the opinion of someone else who knows me / can read me fairly well, ask GL – my team mafia teammate – who is also townreading me.

I currently townread RC, so all your plan seems to do is get a townie shot. Consider this – if, day 2, we're sending a consensus townread regardless, then why bother shooting RC day 2 as opposed to, say, just seeing his alignment if necessary after everyone flips? Like, there seems to be the assumption here that Day 2 we're sending someone specifically of RC's choice whom nobody else has any thoughts on and the only way to read that person is to shoot RC... for some reason.

Whatever happened to just sending a consensus townread?

[northsidegal]

what do you mean "it doesn't answer a very valid question"?

[northsidegal]

You're assuming the position of scum. Why do that as town?

I'm not sure what you mean by "assuming the position of scum.

Again, to clear any confusion. We send NSG today. RC pushes a second person. When that person is at L-2, RC gets dayvigged and it proves his read on NSG was pure and his push on the second target for AP as well. We have 2 towns in and then lynch the third if it comes to LyLo.

Yes, I understand your plan... there's no reason to repeat it. I've already told you my thoughts on it.

680 doesn't answer why the plan is bad. 687 answers it... kind of tangentially

I already answered his question regarding the plan in 666. (he asked me about it again afterwards anyways)

[northsidegal]

i wonder if i'll ever get any credit around here?

[northsidegal]

i mean, i always try to stay humble, but i think i'm fairly decent. pretty good, even, at least looking at the numbers when it comes to my won games.

nobody else seems to think so.

[northsidegal]

The main idea is that RC is a good town player and an active one and if we can confirm his role, we can prove his reads were genuine.

i understand this completely. what i'm saying is that i am town if rc flips town and i am town if rc does not flip town. shooting rc might make some people more comfortable with the idea that i'm town, but i don't think it should be necessary.

i'm not sure why you seem to believe that i'm not addressing your point.

Or, to be more exact "Just because RC flips whatever, it doesn't mean I'm town"

At least that's what I got from it, correct me if I'm wrong.

that's completely backwards. what i'm saying is that regardless of what RC flips, i'm town. not that... RC flipping town wouldn't confirm me as town or something. it is true that RC being town would, probabilistically speaking, indicate that i am town. my point is that i do not believe it to be

necessary

.

[northsidegal]

i don't get that feeling. maybe that's just me, though.

[northsidegal]

Insomnia's plan is, to prevent A, we should do B. Then he asks, is B a good plan against A. Your response in 666 is A will never happen, therefore we don't need B. Here might be dicey, but I don't think it's a full answer.

my response is that A will never happen because i know it to be the case. even still, i think you're underrepresenting what i said – my point is also one of opportunity cost. i believe RC to be town, so the opportunity cost of shooting him to confirm me as town (something which i believe to be unnecessary given what is gained) is that we aren't shooting someone whom i believe could be scum.

[northsidegal]

i understand this completely. what i'm saying is that i am town if rc flips town and i am town if rc does not flip town. shooting rc might make some people more comfortable with the idea that i'm town, but i don't think it should be necessary.

that's rife with conf bias. you can say you are town but we don't know it?

It's not confirmation bias to state something which I know to be factually correct.

Yes, it's true that nobody

knows

that I'm town, just the same for anyone else. That's true anywhere in mafia? Like, consider this: are you saying that suddenly people will

know

that I'm town if RC is town? If the answer is yes, then what I have to tell you is that it isn't by some secret technique that RC can read me – i fully believe that anyone who looks at my scum games could come to the same conclusion, even if, say, they only looked at the literal numbers of how much i posted. If the answer is no, then we're in the same position as when we started, and for what gained?

i don't get that feeling. maybe that's just me, though.

actually I don't think I played a town game with you so I'm just going along with what other people say

you've played a scumgame with me, though. any thoughts on that? i know you already said once that i'm posting here more than i have there (while i'm on v/la right now.. hmm...)

[northsidegal]

If town is talking about vigging RC then scum don't have to nk him. Town is gonna don't for them.

Realistically speaking, he's probably getting nkd if he's town. If he's not getting nkd, that should even raise more suspicion on him being scum. With him leading town like he is, he presents a threat to scum. The whole idea of my plan revolved around RC staying alive, which would raise his percentage of being scum.

This is stupid and rife to WIFOM suggestions

took the words out of my mouth.

glad we're in agreement

[northsidegal]

You aren't aware of the fact that strong players are strong as either alignment.

haha, if anyone considers me a strong town player that i think i'm living disproof of that point

No but the odds are better. Just a quick numeric example. If I'm only 60 percent sure that you are town, and completely null on RC. But RC has a 99 percent certainty that you are town and he reads you well. Then my percentage would be boosted to high 90 percent with an RC flip.

i agree with this in principle. (not sure about the exact math)

for me mathdino will always be the source of this kind of argument and his original point there was that the odds of that kind of interaction happening with scumbuddies was low enough to warrant a townread on the original player regardless of the flip of the second one, but i can understand your trepidation i suppose.

Let me get this in plain words: are you using the creature defense to try to convince me: it's obvious my scum game is pretty weak. im playing strong handed right now so you should be convinced I am town. (yes no suffices)

i think it's one of multiple reasons that i've shown myself to be town this game. it's not the only reason, and certainly not the largest reason.

[northsidegal]

people have been waiting for my reads so here they are, roughly

{nsg, GL, tgp}
{DDL, ruirui, RC}
{RCE}
{BRVR}
{DT, roster, insomnia, labrat}

Keep in mind that my reads may shift a lot given being able to look at people's play on later days. These reads aren't ordered.

Pretty much only gonna elaborate on townreads.



DDL – I've wavered a bit on my DDL read but I think I feel pretty good about it. As I've said before, I've liked his real-time interaction with the thread this game, which as far as I can tell is pretty much his entire ISO. I lean towards that as scum he would be making fewer, larger, more crafted posts that responded to a lot of things at once. I think that that's many people's idea of "how to be townread", although I can't speak for DDL personally.

I also think that scum probably has some plan for how they want to play this if I'm being sent today, and I think that unless he is scum with the lowest posters in the game (BRVR, Labrat, Locke), their plan is probably not "DDL self-votes and asks people to vote him as well"? I've misread this in the last FakeGod game like this where Davesaz as scum kind of just self-voted like that and I townread it, but yeah.

---

RuiRui– I think RuiRui has just been playing pro-town enough to warrant being townread. Like, there's always the argument that in a setup like this there'll be scum who just play very pro-town in order to get selected themselves, but at a certain point i think you have to just look past that and say that if someone is playing like that then it makes them town.

I think these posts are probably genuine:

Spoiler:

What if scum shoot who we access point every night?

They can still be nightkilled

nevermind, I'm wrong

I think this post shows reasonable doubt that might not be there if RuiRui were scum (to argue against myself for a moment, however, RuiRui did townread RC earlier in a slight contradiction to this):

My support for your plan is reliant on you not pushing for yourself to be in the final 3

Finally, I think these posts are just fairly town motivated, especially for a situation in which it appeared that i was just going to be sent fairly quickly. I would imagine that scum might care more about projecting towniness in order to ensure being selected the next day.

Spoiler:

I have other townreads I'd like to discuss tomorrow

I'm kind of impatient with not talking about reads even though I said not to do it earlier

---

RC – Gonna be fairly concise here. I think RC would hold no sentiments about playing directly to win if he were scum here. I recognize that my replace in, if he were scum, would certainly shift whatever plan he already would have had to win – I also think that he would probably still townread me here if he were scum (although it's been a long time since that situation has popped up).

That being said.
I think that his desire to avoid being sent to AP along with me most likely comes from town.
I think that his response to insomnia is most likely a town one.

Don't currently believe that he's scum.

[northsidegal]

i do want GL to get a chance to post before day ends

[northsidegal]

NSG how do you feel about switching RCE for DDL

eh

I'm happy with DDL I guess

You're my sheep indefinitely if you're wrong there

you're more confident on rce? i actually had them in reverse positions but swapped it last second

also i think we'd have to check the scores if that were the case

Labrats town but I don't expect anyone else to agree so

i agree, actually.

like i said, i expect my reads to switch around in later days, especially as the lower posters post more.

i expect that like, many of my current "not town" reads could change given time.

you had DT as town earlier - confidence there?

[northsidegal]

yeah, he's had a pretty bad presence so far

[northsidegal]

Funny how my last four games I played fairly well but game was townsided as shit.

you played well in anuket topaz but it wasn't townsided.

Good game, everyone!

[northsidegal]

i didn't like alisae's posting so that lylo would've been a challenge, i suppose depending on the third spot