Newbie 1926: Baseball (Game Over)

[teacher]

Hello. Got to read a bunch and I’m mostly a night player.

[teacher]

VOTE: shoshin
quack quack

<3 been hoping to play w you again for a while.

[teacher]

I live and breathe the Yankees

I was at the 96 series and actually believe I started the “throw him out” chant about the Braves manager. But \_o_/

[teacher]

I think I've asked this a few times, can someone point out the benefit of lynching someone today when we could wait for more information?

I'm going to let someone else go through the details because I'm sure they will do it better than I would, but rest assured that lynching d1 - even mislynching d1 - is +ev for town

I’m assuming he meant real life day rather than game day? But yea, no lynch in a 7-2 is terrible play.

[teacher]

@onob what pinged you about Marcus?

pick any of his posts, they're all bad!

Subject: Newbie Game Queue (Players and Mods)

/in for newbie

this comes from town 7/9 of the time tbh
we can reconvene on this

[teacher]

self-voting

I’m entirely w UrAp on this, but w 2 days left and in the middle of the game, I’ll leave the theory discussion for now.

[teacher]

I'm starting to be suspicious about Shoshin repeatedly pointing out her desire to help newbies, as in #41 and #50, for example. It seems a little over the top, like it's an attempt to ingratiate herself to the newbies. Therefore, in the spirit of "overstating a scumread a little," I scumread Shoshin.

VOTE: Shoshin

First total town read. Irrespective of Shoshin read, the reaction is natural.

[teacher]

I don't see how you end up reading Lavender town, she's done nothing yet.

Lavender's town?

yah i think probably. not a strong read

Putting this in my ISO.

[teacher]

Hello everyone.

[teacher]

You gave three slightly reasoned arguments for your reads here but nothing for urap2 - why?

I like this.

[teacher]

which pair are actually working together I guess.

Associatives are fairly weak D1 I think. Almost not worth it (though I always do)

[teacher]

what about you, duck? what do you think about lavender

Oops I ignored this
Still forming an opinion on Lavender but I like the way she's approaching the game.

I’m gonna need more justification for this, at least as of my feels of this point.

[teacher]

I think I've asked this a few times, can someone point out the benefit of lynching someone today when we could wait for more information?

I'm going to let someone else go through the details because I'm sure they will do it better than I would, but rest assured that lynching d1 - even mislynching d1 - is +ev for town

I’m assuming he meant real life day rather than game day? But yea, no lynch in a 7-2 is terrible play.

I'm pretty sure he meant game day

Assuming no saves (saves are long odds), all no lynch does is turn D3 lylo into mylo, with less vca and wagon information. No lynch is a no.

[teacher]

I forgot I wasn't voting. My bad.
VOTE: godmid

Gonna shake things up.

And first vet out of null for me.

[teacher]

Stopping at page 6 ftm. As of now my read is godmid and rump, with a lavender counterwagon. I’m at my parents for Easter weekend so may not be interacting all that much but feel to leave me questions about anything in particular.

[teacher]

godmid and rump

Ryno

[teacher]

I do not understand the scum read on Lav. Please explain

Twice? Not like you to just adopt a slot this hard. But I get it.

[teacher]

Shoshin has been prodded.

I believe this is the first of two. I didn’t notice the absence reading through all at once so want to call it out.

[teacher]

Town

[teacher]

before we start, shoshin

can you tell me if you are town reading all of {Lav, TW, Shoshin, ME}?

That's my town bloc and if we disagree there we should work on that first

Agree.

[teacher]

Stopping at page 6 ftm. As of now my read is godmid and rump, with a lavender counterwagon. I’m at my parents for Easter weekend so may not be interacting all that much but feel to leave me questions about anything in particular.

I’m caught up and still liking this pairing. Going to reiso God be they have a prolix style and it’s been a small screen. Then I’ll vote. Anyone around?

[teacher]

VOTE: Godmid

L-2

[teacher]

This ones for you Brass

[teacher]

It’s cause he knew I was coming. Clearly.

I’m actually kinda interested because my prediction was light scum to me.

[teacher]

Pred*. Auto predict boo.

[teacher]

It’s something we all should be better at explaining, but ask anytime you want. When I started I def used the glossary in the mods tip post a lot.

[teacher]

ALso, it is courtesy to say:

Godmid is at L-1

So nobody can say the lolhammer was an accident.

[teacher]

same to you. Kindly note URAp and shosins request, which I welcome as well.

[teacher]

I'm not sure what 1905 IC vibe and choo choo vibe are.

I haven’t actually checked but my guess is that if you go into completed newby games, the worst was a Town!IC (a special ‘teaching’ SE role that has since been retired) in game 1905. Choo choo I take as a reference to scum joining a town wagon. But I’m just sharing how I read this.

[teacher]

Ordinarily I’d scumread Sho as a reaction test but I feel pretty good about my early game read and think scum!sho doesn’t disappear like this. At least they didn’t as 3D party so I would say it is real life, but with the effect of strengthening rafher than weakening my gut.

[teacher]

Btw I’ll echo two and uraps thoughts on each other : I townread both, but I have seen both powerscum like this. For me their activity levels always merit a day one pass, and tbh I’m quite comfortable with BoPing them as the game progresses.

*BoP=burden of proficiency. If a good and widely townread player makes it to lylo without having driven a scum lynch, that should be cause for re-evaluation. Some treat this as a fallacy, I treat it as fair. Ymmv.

[teacher]

I townread both, but I have seen both powerscum like this.

hey, i've only ever been scum once and we lost in spectacular fashion. I shouldn't have to meet a proficiency burden like the rising star over here =P

Owing to strong PR play rather than your own.

[teacher]

What's your experience with scum!me teacher?

I semi spectated your deep wolf in the “Star Wars” or “Starcraft” or whatever Krazy series

[teacher]

^funny you did that. The one piece of advice I slightly differ from on a theory level concerns the JK. My own short version is JK actions should depend on flips. If today’s flip is green, act a doc. If it’s red, act a cop.

Personally I don’t try to PR hunt w save attempts, but that’s cause I’m a marginal pr hunter.

[teacher]

@tw if you’re around I’d love to jam about lab. I have them as a town counterwagon, but still have them in the sort pile. Talk to me about what blocked them for you?

[teacher]

I think Marcus 325 is a good choice, but u r a person 2 is a better choice.

I like the lampshadeybess about changing approach, but this is completely inconsistent w your group one group 2 thoughts. Also there’s no way in hell URAP is going through with 48 hours. So who are you going to vote? Vanity wagons are boooo.

[teacher]

@Godmid

please claim the next time you check into the thread. we will need ~36 hours after your claim to resolve this phase properly mechanically.

Agree. For purposes of a flash wagon if needed, I’m open to Denmon or Ryno

[teacher]

Godmid and Lavender seem to be reactive instead of proactive, so I'm reading them as the scum atm

Playstyle=/alignment.

You talked about Lav. Talk to me about God.

[teacher]

Page reminder that godmid is L-1

As TW mentioned, due to deadline that slot should claim regardless intent.

[teacher]

would you kindly update post 0 to reflect the several substitutions - me-Marcus, Pvt-whig

. My thanks.

[teacher]

VOTE: Marcus will write and answer questions in a few hours

Or like 4 days.....

[teacher]

@441
Thanks for sourcing it. Reading page 13 with that in mind groks. I hadn’t gotten that much out of it cold, but I was pretty blurry from doing it all in a day.

[teacher]

Ordinarily I’d scumread Sho as a reaction test but I feel pretty good about my early game read and think scum!sho doesn’t disappear like this. At least they didn’t as 3D party so I would say it is real life, but with the effect of strengthening rafher than weakening my gut.

React to this? I noted she was out of your block and I’m on with that but liking my read.

[teacher]

Ok* with that

[teacher]

Alright I’m off for the night and churching/flying tomorrow so going to be gone a bit. Be well.

[teacher]

Pagetop reminder that Godmid is L-1 and should claim.

[teacher]

Excite me duck

VOTE: Denmon

[teacher]

Shade on Godmin/Lavender,

I did not shade Lav in the spoiler or elsewhere. I was saying Lav was a town counterwagon as momentum picked up on God. I had them as nullishbtown the whole time.

[teacher]

joining a bandwagon and wanting a lynch to occur, which is pretty red.

Honestly at this point I will join any wagon to get it through. That’s how impt I view a day One lynch.

[teacher]

I'll go into Teacher's posts a bit, but am otherwise open to questions

How about do you have any questions for me? In my two days in the game I put out a hell of a lot more posts and content than you, so asking (and getting things - like my read on Lav - right) might actually be better.

[teacher]

First of all your wall is a bitch to react to on mobile. There’s a lot I’d like to say but I can’t excerpt and respond the way I’d like.

1. I’d love for you to explain how my intro is null-scum, but my calling out the same thing in Godmid’s intro is also null scum. Tbh that makes zero sense unless it’s conf bias.

2. How on gods green earth is sharing reads - with reasons (unlike

somebody’s

readslist) “null” (Whig), null-scum (Godmid), or “not directly beneficial to town” (Robotnick2). Should I just not comment on other slots other than to call them “sexy town”?

3. Asking questions - like why someone townread a someone I suspected (even if my pred) - is “fluff” how exactly?

4. You may call ryno distancing, but maybe you want to reconsider scumreading the only other player who shares your read of that slot? If you can get a wagon there, I’d be more than happy to vote.

Sorry just not understanding your two line summaries or how they can present a consistent world view.

[teacher]

Godmid and Lavender seem to be reactive instead of proactive, so I'm reading them as the scum atm

Playstyle=/alignment.

You talked about Lav. Talk to me about God.

@ryno.

[teacher]

It’s sleepytown in here. I need some shoshin in my life.

Honestly I’m fine w whichever of my PoE pool can get across the line before deadline. I had earlier and harder vibes from Godmid but am willing to go along to get a lynch through.

[teacher]

I'm fine with lynching Godmid

I can tell. But why? Kindly case.

The new rules are that I cannot encourage replacing, and I get the reasons for that. But you signed up for a game, so kindly contribute.

[teacher]

I'm not a fan of how it went down generally.

What in particular did you not like? TW got cold feet on God, and I switched to try to keep momentum to a lynch going when we did have an active deadline concern.

Are you second guessing your TW read again?

Are you suss’ing me?

What’s up?

[teacher]

(Don’t disagree on talking it out, given loss of deadline impetus; I’m still content with my townblock and PoE pool, but can pull the vote if you’re afraid of a quick hammer.)

[teacher]

would you please update post 0

[teacher]

I'm not really super confident on DENMON anymore either

I strongly encourage this lynch

Less than 12 hrs and no Denmon post in between. I tend to agree with two slots already claimed that it makes sense to focus the lynch there rather than do scums work on a third, but I’d like TW to speak on their own thinking.

The gamestate has understandably slowed. Ryno won’t ask questions or case. My own sense is town is letting their paranoia eat away at a good block due to the lack of advancing. Speaking for myself, my lynch pools or toe reads haven’t shifted much in the past few days and I don’t think the next two days are likely to change them either.

Townlean/daypass: URAp, tw, Lav, Sho/ceejay
Lynchpool: ryno,urist, godmid, Denmon

I’ll go along to get along in there, but like Denmon the most of it myself. Reading the Urist/Denmon double iso is interesting. Denmon’s pred leaves urists skit out of their otherwise complete readslist in 93. And Denmon himself basically never mentions Urist except in an analysis that seems self contradictory.

PvtUrist - Maybe Green - I like how he made a list like this

and gave his thoughts on it

which is a reason why I think he is probably a green. The issue is that there

wasn't actually much thought.

He listed what alignment people were on, but didn't give much thought to say why. I would think that maybe he would put a little more effort as a green.

Seems like a contrived/forced read on a slot they would otherwise be forced to suspect.

[teacher]

480 has the count, but shift Lav from me to Denmon.

[teacher]

I’m going to unvote because I think we gain from ceejays catch-up, and don’t want that prevented. You have my preferences and reasons.

VOTE: unvote

Pedit:yup.

[teacher]

My own sense is town is letting their paranoia eat away at a good block due to the lack of advancing.

I started the below after seeing uraps vote on tw, before where he asked for the boards thoughts.

Nah mate. Not today. No way no how. I see your points, but I think it’s paranoia. I’ve only played w the duck once in a game where they sides D1 iirc, so I can’t speak with confidence or the equivalent of your own experience, but I’m comfortable with how he has approached the day. I haven’t gotten pings at all.

I think you are attributing way too much to your Denmon comment and not enough to legit cold feet in Godmid. I didn’t like the L-1 wall or the “not Pr” rather than vt claim, but a second reading made ducks reaction more plausible to me.

[teacher]

What’s the count?

CJ you got more or good?

Been skimming just want to know for when I read up tonight.

[teacher]

The Mendoza line, where a player hits for at least a .200 average is named after Mario Mendoza, who failed to reach .200 five times in his nine year career. He finished with a .215 batting average. 2018 Hall of Famer Chipper Jones hit a modest .303 for his career, if you'd like a comparison

Votecount 1.12

DENMON (3) ~

Godmid, the worst, Lavender

godmid (2) ~

u r a person 2, Ryno56

Teacher (2) ~

PvtUrist, DENMON

Lavender (1) ~

Shoshin

Not Voting (1) ~

Teacher

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.

Mod Notes

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2019-04-24 20:30:00)

The only movement from this is CeeJay taking Shosins vote and moving it to Godmid, as best I can tell.

[teacher]

So it’s 3-3, and I have the tie breaking vote. I’ll read both again and give my choice.

[teacher]

on the off chance you’re around, urist and DENMON are both well into the prod range.

[teacher]

on the off chance you’re around, urist and DENMON are both well into the prod range.

EBWOP.

[teacher]

Cheers. Oddly Tuesdays are my date night as well. Hope yours was fun.

[teacher]

Eh, Im going to follow the advice I give my students on multiple choice tests. When in doubt, go with your first instinct.

VOTE: Godmid

L-1.

[teacher]

I was searching that up to twilight it myself. JK-act based on color of flip as discussed in 432

[teacher]

have a good day duck.

In case Im not kicking tomorrow, I will leave you with my VCA thoughts. I think that one wagon was on scum. I think that one scum was on my wagon. If this flips green, I think one scum is on this one.

[teacher]

FWIW, a red + a JK + a NK =/ a complete clear. Column B and lucky scum can happen 15%.

[teacher]

yup. If town, definitely leave a will.

[teacher]

Good first inning stretch.

Interesting target - quite unexpected fmpov.

I’m out today but will catchup later.

[teacher]

Thoughts on this, teacher?

I disagree w massclaim. But I have info i will wait on till we have all slots participating and posting.

[teacher]

FWIW, urap, you’re now giving me the paranoia. I know the theory behind it, but I don’t like it. You don’t massclaim with undiscovered investigative(s) before lylo.

Lav as a nk makes some sense. I think TW was not a likely nk target - too likely to be protected. I was not, since two people were voting me and ceejay had me at null. URAP was my “likely peg.

@ryno, I find your enthusiasm to be present at daybreak disconcerting given your malaise yesterday. Can you analyze the wagon and nk?

@ceejay, can you speak more on your read of me?

[teacher]

think you'll find that I advocate for a mass claim day before lylo basically always.

I meta’ed the issue and didn’t find another town example in the newb queue, with a town D1 lynch (small sample, admittedly). But like I said I do get the theory and am fine with your position, just disagree.

[teacher]

Yea, the lynch today is between Denmon and Urist.

[teacher]

scum expected me to come into today pushing him hard.

Why would scum expect that?
What would the scum motivation of TW be for trying to derail a green wagon that would get him little suspicion?
Sure, white knighting is a thing and the green flip doesn’t clear him, but it’s certainly not +scum for him.

[teacher]

which is your preference of the two

I definitely have one, but need to wait for posts.

[teacher]

Did you not read me as intending to push TW today given a green flip?

Nah. Like I know you aren’t sold on him, but you always reevaluate. Anyone who knows your play knows not to expect that you’ll necessarily be in the same place in the morning as you were in the late afternoon.

[teacher]

^i knew it. TW is the devil.

[teacher]

@ceejay, can you speak more on your read of me?

[teacher]

Way not to mention Denmon

[teacher]

VOTE: denmon

Urists plea, though mistaken, strikes me as legit feelings, especially after retreading him overnight.

Denmon hasn’t been on site for a full week. I’m convinced that one wagon was on scum; and that he went to me because his partner was on Godmid.

[teacher]

@ryno, I find your enthusiasm to be present at daybreak disconcerting given your malaise yesterday. Can you analyze the wagon and nk

If you’re around and working on stuff.

[teacher]

VOTE: denmon

Urists plea, though mistaken, strikes me as legit feelings, especially after retreading him overnight.

Denmon hasn’t been on site for a full week. I’m convinced that one wagon was on scum; and that he went to me because his partner was on Godmid.

Does this mean there is one scum in {urap, ryno}? That was the godmid wagon before denmon's vote.

Ummmmm.... no? Denmon didn’t vote Godmid?

[teacher]

VOTE: denmon

Urists plea, though mistaken, strikes me as legit feelings, especially after retreading him overnight.

Denmon hasn’t been on site for a full week. I’m convinced that one wagon was on scum; and that he went to me because his partner was on Godmid.

Does this mean there is one scum in {urap, ryno}? That was the godmid wagon before denmon's vote.

Ummmmm.... no? Denmon didn’t vote Godmid?

Wow I’m special.

[teacher]

Let the man bus his partner and forget to say L-1 in peace.

denmon is L-1

[teacher]

First a question - why is Lavender a likely target?

Who scumread them? Were they a likely lynch? But they were kind of inactive/lurked so maybe PR hunting.

[teacher]

Second, I don't know what you mean by malaise yesterday or enthusiasm at daybreak?

You, yesterday “this day is too long I don’t want to talk I’ll just lurk “
You, today “I’m here, let’s talk, weeeeee never mind any read I’ve ever had before”

[teacher]

Is it a problem that I think we have solved the game and both wagons are on scum?

[teacher]

Firstly that wasnt yesterday, it was like 48 hours

Secondly we now have more info to work with

1. Today is D2. “Yesterday” is D1.

2. True. But you aren’t using it. Your reads post is based entirely off of content, which was available to you yesterday, and not flips. For example:

Why was lav killed? If based on reads, it would seem to incriminate me and Denmon. But you have me as strong town and Denmon as null.

We know the composition of yesterday’s wagon. Why are you assuming both of your scum were on it, and that both players voting me - your strong town - are merely null?

[teacher]

Well, let’s see. I said wagons are on scum. Who are the only two players w votes.

[teacher]

Why was lav killed? If based on reads, it would seem to incriminate me and Denmon. But you have me as strong town and Denmon as null.

We know the composition of yesterday’s wagon. Why are you assuming both of your scum were on it, and that both players voting me - your strong town - are merely null?

Don't know why Lav was killed and that's why it's nagging me

I don't understand what you mean by the second half of this

The second half is saying your VCA is weirdly off. Look at 624. You are saying slots 2+3 on a lynch wagon are scum together. That would be incredibly rare.

[teacher]

I think we need someone other than me to try if this doesn’t work: according to you, Ceejay and Urap are scum. So all scum were on the Godmid wagon, indeed in the 2-3 position. That’s....not very likely.

[teacher]

I kinda want a hammer tbh - Brass is searching for a Denmon replacement.

That said, as indicated before I’m fine going to Ryno - I think that could well be the pairing.

[teacher]

If green, your paranoia was well founded. If red, ryno is almost certainly the partner - Urist wouldn’t pull his post otherwise.

[teacher]

Nah, I’m off Urist. He’s green.

[teacher]

And I was saying if this is green, I thinks out are way better than me and had a good vibe on tw. My Vca has him and Denmon as opposite alignments.

[teacher]

“Think you are”=thinks out. Fat fingers little screen.

[teacher]

I’m not optimistic about the lack of twilight chatter.

[teacher]

Cheers, I thought people played well. Surprised by Sho, turns out I need to read her a bit better. Urist can you talk more on your mixed feelings there?

I grabbed a bit with god over in the dead thread. I don’t have real feedback elsewhere other than to echo tw on how nice it was to read a 1v1 between him and urap that was all about the play rather than the player.

[teacher]

are you telling me I've been softing cop to cover for teacher who was softing cop lmaaaooooo

ok massclaim is now optimal

I'm vt

Yea, I was a bit overgamed so thought eating the nk was a good way to help town and myself at the same time. Plus I was pretty confident on Urist.

[teacher]

Yes please!

[teacher]

U2/TW since they're the experienced players here

Ouch.