Newbie 1926: Baseball (Game Over)

[DENMON]

Heya!

I have a pretty good amount of experience (few years I think?) when it comes to forum mafia, so I'm just here to try out different forums and test my skills elsewhere

I have already read everything so here are my thoughts:

Reds want to seem as unrelated to each other, especially in the beginning of the game, so I think there is one red in these two groups.
Group 1: whig, Shoshin, the worst, Marcus325 and u r a person 2
Group 2: Lavender, Ryno56, and Godmind
(I have made these groups based on who is talking to who more)

In group 1, I am unsure. u r a person 2 and Shoshin's posts seem to be the most off from just a first glance. I feel like there is an 'effort' from these people to make themselves look green. I don't really have much else to say since it is only day 1.

In group 2, I think Lavender is green and that Ryno56 might be red. The reason is because Lavender has gotten 3 votes already and there really hasn't been much flack to make this vote look controversial. I also think Ryno56 because he seems to be reluctant to why he is positive that Lavender is red, although for being somewhat aggressive on this vote, I can give him the benefit of the doubt.

I need to think about the others more...

[DENMON]

Whoa I do play Torn O.o

Do I know you?

[DENMON]

:O

This is a spooky coincidence xD Nice to see you again

[DENMON]

Hello everyone.

Hey team.

Heya!

This one also occured, but I'm town reading Ryno. I don't agree with his approach, but the thought process and approach feel genuine, and I'll be surprised if it was all scum trying to get town cred for inexperience

Hello, friends!

Eh? How do greetings correlate with being mafia? I've never seen this before in my experience

[DENMON]

*ahem*

RYNO'S MASTER PLAN:

My aim was to push a scum into frustration by accusing them with little/no reason. Lavender was the victim, and I think it payed off. They very quickly became fixated on WHY I was reading them as scum, which comes across to me as the 'scum newbie annoyed they got caught out early in the game' and they wanted to know if I genuinely was reading them (and if so, HOW ON EARTH) or the self-assuring knowledge that I was bullshitting. All of which seems like scum-thinking to me. Plus the lynch votes probably made them nervous/backed into a corner. There's a tendency to run away with worry - 'oh no, i'm suspected from the start, i'm going to get lynched'. A townie would be much more focussed on making their own reads. See the following...

'Ryno, My eager to please thing you have of me, is it because of my answering questions?'

'Can you tell me what made you think that of me?'

'Ok, but can you to tell me where you get this feeling from?'

'That's quite bold, can you tell me where I have been scummy?'

'Well I really want to ask why Ryno has any big evidence for voting me and such. But they seem very inclined not to give that information.'

'So why say, let others read their take and show everyone else, and not just let yourself reveal your read?

I hereby rest my case against Lavender. Although, I would suggest that with only 2 scum, we don't need to lynch until F5.

Therefore, UNVOTE: Lavender

I would disagree here. The problem with what you were trying to do was that basically everyone will give a similar response in the situation that Lavender was in. You yell at someone that they are mafia for little reason, then the victim will ask naturally why you are yelling at him. Therefore I don't think this means Lavender is red nor green.

[DENMON]

How do I change the time zone here? I must have clicked the wrong one when I registered my account >.>

[DENMON]

While I don't want to appear as just knee-jerk retaliating against the players voting me, the issue I have with The Worst and urap2 is that they've seemingly arrived to the same conclusion on the most likely scumteam (myself and Denmon) despite presenting very different arguments as to why they've arrived at that conclusion. urap2 seems to just be citing the 'greeting tell' while The Worst seems to just be going off of process of elimination by claiming that everyone else is either a town lean or doesn't fit onto a team with any of the scum leans.

If both of them were using the same logic to come up with their opinions, both of them coming up with the same scum team would make sense. However, this does not appear to be the case due to the heavy variations in the arguments given.

If both of them are talented scumhunters who consistently deduce the identities of scum, both of them coming up with the same scum team would once again make sense. However, at least from my point of view, they are both incorrect on at least one case. While it's possible that they are correct in identifying Denmon as mafia and I'm coming off scummier then I should as town and the scum reads on me are justified, I'm skeptical of the "talented scumhunters on the same wavelength" scenario for obvious reasons.

As a result, I see it as unlikely that they both ended up independently arriving on the same opinion on the exact scumteam and see it as more likely that one of them is town and one of them is mafia who is echoing the conclusions of the other to guide the lynch into a pro-mafia direction without being independently accountable should the day end in a mislynch.


Additionally, individually, The Worst has come off as a genuinely friendly player. However, similar to why I was scumreading Lavendar, he has seemingly gone out of his way to avoid allienating players (for example, even when he made his scum team accusation, he avoided explicitly calling anyone out as a scum lean, he just called pretty much every other player a town lean). I will go more in depth as to why I see allienation avoidance as a scum tell if needed.

For urap2, he's made very little effort to impact the game and he's effective agreed to this.

Why should I excite the gamestate? I think the team is Godmid + denmen for the greeting tell - twice from denmen's slot lol

How about that, eh?

While I do not know the history of the 'greeting tell' or whether it has consistently worked in the past, by taking this approach, urap2 is allowing himself to take a backseat in the day chat while maintaining the excuse that it's because he is already confident he knows who the scum is, which is even more suspicious from my perspective where I know that his current scum prediction is incorrect.

Mafia wants to seem unrelated to each other, so when one of their members die, it will take a good amount of effort to link that guy to the remaining red. That said, I think that either they are both green or one of them is red and the other is green. Idk who I would pick if one of them were to be red. Maybe u r a person 2 because I agreed with the worst more often, but that doesn't actually mean anything.

[DENMON]

Eh? How do greetings correlate with being mafia? I've never seen this before in my experience

Go take a gander through the newbie games listed on my wiki.

At least for new players, greeting the thread in the first post is pretty heavily scum-indicative. It's not absolute. There are false positives, but it's something like twice as likely to come from scum than from town

Huh, that is pretty strange. I think it is more of a coincidence than something that mafia just does. But just in case, I guess I'll keep my eye out for Godmid then O.o

[DENMON]

I think it takes a lot of new players some time to get comfortable with their scum PM

Their early awkwardness manifests in them not being able to figure out how to start a post, and some sort of generic "hey guys" is a common result. It's a sub section of the more general newbie-scum-make-awkward-entrances tell

This actually makes sense. (Should I not introduce myself in future games to reduce possible suspicion xD I normally do this when I don't know many people)
I'm actually gonna take this, and see if it checks out from where I usually play. I'm playing another game there that recently started that has a good amount of noobs O.o

[DENMON]

"@Ryno: Same general topic as before. You opened up the game by criticising the use of tells, then soon after tried to build a case against Lavendar using tells. Were your opening criticisms your genuine feelings?"

I said the following:

'I'm simply dubious about the idea that someone relatively competent (50+ online games) can be read with any significant degree of success'

I think this forum is the result of getting a bunch of analytical people to over-analyse small things. The 'tells' we're playing with feel like almost entirely guesswork. I'm engaging with it because
1. That appears to be part of the 'fun'
2. I'm seeing if it actually exists in any meaningful sense, and whether or not I possess the ability to do it

It just feels like there's no real information to strategise with, so we basically have to invent our own game. It's weird. I'm not sure if I enjoy that.

That is because it is day 1. We don't have any history, deaths, or voting patterns to start off with. Because of this, if you don't want to just randomly vote, you have to come up with pretty petty reasons. Once it is day 2, we can look at who voted the person that was lynched on day 1, why people voted for that person, and see if we can get a red using that information.

[DENMON]

Godmid is on my mind lately though because of his reaction to u r a person 2 calling him red. I feel it to have a bit of a not friendly mood. Plus he used the vote on him to attack the people calling him red, which I think is a strange thing to do right now. It could be a tactic to remove some attention on him.

I also find the worst's reaction as a bit odd. Phrases such as "if I was scum" or "I'm bad at alienating people" seem like common phrases that reds may use to seem greenish in their posts. He also said that he will read the post later, then proceeded to talk about the post 7 minutes later. Very odd, hmmm O.o

I think one of these two may be red

Also does anyone here actually use the color terms? Green or red

[DENMON]

@DENMON Your overall reaction to the greeting read seems very different from mine and you seem far less skeptical of it. Can you give any more insights to your thoughts around it?

I wanted to question it before I made assumptions as I never have seen the greeting tell before. I also don't think it is a very strong tell and that we should rely on other reasons to find who is red. You mentioned you had experience in forum mafia, right? Maybe the greeting tell doesn't apply to us because we aren't complete noobs, but I haven't looked too much into this to say it doesn't.

Not sure what else you would want me to say here. It's a bit of a vague question

[DENMON]

It's not all that common here but it's certainly a thing.

Yup, I was gonna read it after my Slay the Spire run if I was in the mood. then lost the run in the next room. your point being?

My point being is that I don't like the language you are using. I can definitely see you as being red, using common phrases as an effort to make yourself green. The fact you kind of ignored that part in my post makes you a bit suspicious in my opinion O.o

Other opinions on this?

[DENMON]

I also find the worst's reaction as a bit odd. Phrases such as "if I was scum" or "I'm bad at alienating people" seem like common phrases that reds may use to seem greenish in their posts. He also said that he will read the post later, then proceeded to talk about the post 7 minutes later. Very odd, hmmm O.o

My opinion is that TW is town, and that common phrases are exactly that - common.

If I was scum, this is the kind of argument I might make to push TW here.

It's not actually, I just wanted to use those four words in that order.~

Just like how your greeting tell is something minor that reds are likely to say, I've noticed that these small phrases are also stuff that reds are likely to say. Ofc there is a pretty good chance I'm wrong on this, but honestly I'm simply low on suspects and I gotta choose somebody, even if it is for the pettiest of reasons. Only other person on my mind is Shoshin, but I need him to start posting more for me to get a stronger read. His posts just feels like eh, you know?

[DENMON]

Post

Ok, this is probably going to look pretty suspicious cause I'm kind of going to be changing my behavior. I'm honestly not liking the way I am playing myself, since I am normally pretty aggressive and attempt to vote out the people that I really want to be lynched. I guess cause I'm not used to the environment, I'm playing a bit more cautiously. I'm also going to be restarting my thinking completely because I actually took the time to reread most stuff since I am doubting my reasoning more than I am actually supporting them.

HERE ARE MY READS:
In general, I reminded myself that the reds want to lay low so they don't get voted out. This doesn't mean that they are posting less, but that they are making too many agreeable posts.

Lavender - Maybe Green - I'm getting a pretty green vibe from Lavender's posts. Plus Lavender got a good amount of votes and suspicion at one point, but there wasn't really anyone defending him. I would think that someone, even if that person would be green, would say something. I also agree with his suspicion on Marcus325 in that the reasoning is valid.
Marcus325 - Eh - Like I said above, I agree with Lavender on his suspicion. Now it is just a matter of deciding if it means he is red or not. I think by process of elimination, it isn't too far off of a guess.
DENMON - Very green
Ryno56 - Green - I think he is too aggressive to be a red. His attack on Lavender would gather a lot of attention, which is something a red would not like to have.
Godmid - Green - He is very determined in trying to convince others that u r a person 2 and the worst is red, and I think if he was red, he would be a bit less determined, you know?
PvtUrist - Maybe Green - I like how he made a list like this and gave his thoughts on it which is a reason why I think he is probably a green. The issue is that there wasn't actually much thought. He listed what alignment people were on, but didn't give much thought to say why. I would think that maybe he would put a little more effort as a green.
Shoshin - Maybe Green? - I would think if he was red, he would be a bit more active. He said "oh the reds are so obvious, do you see it" (not a direct quote, didn't bother to find it). This is bit of a careless move to say then just leave it for people to question. Red would probably want to be more careful.
the worst - Maybe Green - After I reread everything, I think he is a bit too active to be red. I've made some posts against the worst but now that I reread everything, I'm having my doubts. Actually I'm kinda regret posting it, as my reasoning seems a bit silly. Normally when I start doubting stuff, it means I am attacking a green. So I'm just going to go with my gut and say the worst is maybe green.
u r a person 2 - Eh - He seems off. I think what is happening is that u r a person 2 is using the worst to make all his defenses and reads for him, then not really give much thought to us until the worst asks him a question. Something isn't sitting well with me here, even if he is giving good replies like with what he said about Lavender. Because of this, I think he is actually trying to lay low, and he is doing well.

I think Marcus 325 is a good choice, but u r a person 2 is a better choice.

I know shifty behavior - red alarms. Vote me out if you have to, but I'm actually kind of confident on this, which I never was since I joined

VOTE: u r a person 2

[DENMON]

Uhh, I never quoted brassherald. No idea how that go there

[DENMON]

Huh, the reasoning given by u r a person 2 is actually pretty good. I'm questioning my read on him because of this...

[DENMON]

Ok sorry I was gone yesterday. I don't think u r a person 2 is red anymore because he put a lot more effort into lynching Godmid than I thought he would. Usually reds don't like to start bandwagons unless under certain circumstances. However, I don't actually like the reasoning used to call Godmid scum. He is just picking phrases that can seem scummy, but honestly I can do that for anybody and make a case for it. I can see a green saying the stuff that Godmid said that u r a person 2 is saying is suspicious. The reasoning is pretty weak, and we need to focus on the people that are voting, and why they are voting for the best information.

I didn't like Marcus325 cause there was no reason for me to say he was green, so by process of elimination he should be red. Then teacher replaced him and I still don't like him. If Godmid and I are green, then I just see him as joining a bandwagon and wanting a lynch to occur, which is pretty red. Also I have a reason for everybody else for being green, but my thinking for Shoshin is probably the weakest. I originally thought that he would be more active in the lynchings if he was red. So my team is teacher and Shoshin.

VOTE: teacher

Oh there is like 3 votes on me now. I'm vanilla and honestly the votes are fair. I'm not playing too well. The problem I'm having is that this site has 10 days for day 1. This is far too long for a day that had basically no information. So when I'm stuck, I usually just post for the sake of posting and I don't think too much about it. Can I survive this day and try to redeem myself on day 2? Once I have information to work with, I can actually throw some solid accusations using the votes from day 1.