Open 756: Hope Plus One (Day 5)

[Titus]

Hi guys. Will check in later.

[Titus]

Titus (2) - GuyInFreezer, Fumuki
Dr Worm (3) - Eyes without a face, NorthSideGal, Shoshin
Creature (1) - Crerature
Shoshin (3) - RC, Dr Worm, Egix96

Not Voting (2) - Emperor flippyNips, Titus

I'll still be very lacking in activity until like Wednesday since finals week.
But I'll be around in time to vote the biggest wagon.

How frequent are the VCs? Are they a good place to get started with?

[Titus]

VCs are very infrequent in this game.

Shit, there goes the best way to solve the game.

[Titus]

I think a lynch on Titus might be slightly better but dunno.

If you want to vote me, vote me. If I get lynched because the slot was unsalvageable, not going to hurt my feelings. Right now, I think it's dumb to lynch active players though. I won't be as active as I used to be but I will still be around.

[Titus]

What's the VC?

[Titus]

That makes me the breaker?

[Titus]

Empress? Huh?

[Titus]

I hold out hope that other players will check in before deadline.

I also think we should lobby our mod for an extension.

Who all is mia

[Titus]

Who is the counterwagon?

[Titus]

Unless you're seeking a flash wagon on RC, I do not understand the obsession here.

[Titus]

Unless you're seeking a flash wagon on RC, I do not understand the obsession here.

If you're about to be mislynched by someone aggressively manipulating players into voting you, & there's no time in the day phase to wagon that player, what would you do? Stay silent about what they're doing?

Push my biggest SR and guess the team?

[Titus]

Right now, I think it's dumb to lynch active players though.

If you believe this, then you should naturally be inclined towards voting Worm over me. Am I correct in assuming this?

Assuming worm is inactive (which you appear not to believe) and all speech being equal, yes.

With your words, I gotta ask is RC town?

[Titus]

I"ve been in your situation with RC more times than I care to count as either alignment. I get your situation but the situation is NAI.

Why that pool?

[Titus]

Fumuki, Creature, NSG, & GIF are locktown for me.

I am playing while driving. I do not have time to read. How are your Mia ppl lock town

[Titus]

When RC, GIF, Egix, and Worm voted for your slot, putting you at L-2, I argued in support of lynching within RC/Egix/Worm. If I were scum, I easily could have gone along with that mislynch. But instead, I pushed against it. If you're town, you should view that as town indicative for me.

Breaking this into two parts.

I'm concerned your reads list is opportunistic. The lock townread happen to be the people who can show and change things? Why wouldn't you reconsider them if they leave you high and dry? I need to look at the substantive arguments in detail in a bit.

As for the L-2 comment, I'll suppose it's true but not verify for now. First, if my reads are terrible and that list is mostly town, scum you would want me alive. Second, who was the alternative when I was wagoned? I love the reachout with the minor vote analysis but that's oversimplified.

[Titus]

I don't think I ever said your reads were terrible so I don't know where that comes from? Are you saying you scumread my townreads? Which ones?

I think either you're confused or playing confused. The point was scum you would white knight my prior slot holder if the reads were terrible as the slot would be proscum.

[Titus]

How is my reads list opportunistic? I don't understand what you're saying about "show and change" and "reconsider." I'm always going to reconsider reads as the game progresses. But in this moment, they're locktown.

All you're lockdown reads are Mia for the most part capable of showing at the last moment.

[Titus]

Day 2 begins now. The deadline is on Monday, April 29, 2019 at 11:15 pm EST, which is in (expired on 2019-04-29 22:15:00).

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Hmph. Back on the road
..got some things to consider. Someone else talk to me please.

[Titus]

I didn't want to make that choice in the time we had. I was favoring lynching Shosin too but it was based on info rather than Shoshin being scummy which didn't sit right.

[Titus]

Well, I'll be back later too then. Anyone can feel free to point me to an important point and get my opinion. *hint please do*

[Titus]

I was favoring lynching Shosin too but it was based on info rather than Shoshin being scummy which didn't sit right.

What information would you gain from my lynch? And how would lynching me provide more information than lynching Worm?

I'd get wagonomics information. The way I read people is how they treat other people and the decisions they make. What people value says a lot about their alignment. It's not enough that someone voted for a scum or town, but why did they?

You were in an intense battle with RC. Flipping you suggests his alignment and motivation. It also tells me indirectly about Worm.

I also can look back at your votes on D1 knowing they were pure and react to them later. That's VCA.

You instinctively associate teams as you hunt. I do that more but with data.

Worm hadn't pissed off players but still had a large wagon. That's interesting to note for someone like me too.

[Titus]

What's my flip tell you about RC's alignment/motivation, Titus?

If you're scum, I'd nearly lock RC as town unless you have an extensive history offsite. While RC's posture could be bussing you, that's remote. (He's pulled it with me once but we had the history to pull it off.)

If you're town, RC slot has much higher scum equity. So I'd wonder why he'd fight you. What does he gain as each alignment? Town!RC tunnels wrong if you attack his townread. Scum!RC does it to discredit people OR ideas. I'd look deeper into your interaction to see which rules more.

[Titus]

Sho, can you quote the VCs which you're referencing here?

[Titus]

Shosin, permission to ninja?

[Titus]

I don't know what that means.

You asked edge about momentum. It's a pretty simple answer as to why a vote like that may occur.

Ninjaing would let me explain it for expediency if you're casing him. If you're resorting, we'd be better off waiting.

[Titus]

I don't know what you mean by the term "ninja."

Cut in front..in this case answer the question you put forth to Enix about wagon momentum.

[Titus]

I'd like to know your reads as well, Titus.

When I know, you'll know. I've spent most of the thread interacting with you...Since I don't have VCA data, my reads are rough at best.

[Titus]

I'd like to know your reads as well, Titus.

When I know, you'll know. I've spent most of the thread interacting with you...Since I don't have VCA data, my reads are rough at best.

Reading people's post and actions is usually adequate. VCA should come secndary to that imo.

Well, you've never played with me. I'm best late in games because hard data run my decisions. I play mafia to get better at the former.

[Titus]

The reason why I thought Celica wasn't likely to be lynched any more was because Cowbells was all like "we're lynching me or Shosh today!" and since there's a chance he's the cop's N1 peek I thought I might as well go along with that.

You don't think there's a chance cop checked me?

Did you see anyone voting RC? Why'd you follow RC without questioning his "1v1" premise?

No one should answer the first question Shoshin asked.

[Titus]

No one should answer the first question Shoshin asked.

Why not?

From the perspective of everyone but the cop, the answer to that question is, "yes." Scum know that cop didn't check them because there wasn't a guilty. And town know don't now who cop checked. As such, it's possible that I was checked.

I'd argue it's more likely I was checked than RC because there's more players with strong townreads on me than RC.

Your noob pass is wearing thin.

One, town can sit on guilties. RC's behavior makes sense for a cop with a guilty for instance.

Two, people can be checked for a myriad of reasons. Some look for town, some look for scum, some sort nulls.

Third, the more players talk about their cop reads, the more scum can find the cop.

[Titus]

VOTE: Shosin

I am done. You exasperate me.

[Titus]

L minus 2

[Titus]

VOTE: Shosin

I am done. You exasperate me.

Do you think I'm scum?

What's your read on Egix?

Possibly. I'm tired of our discussions plugging up the thread. I need to see others talk to read them.

[Titus]

Since the shitshow is over I want to set this straight. For real.

I'm very afraid of scum!Shoshin making a fool out of me here, but yeah, I honestly don't feel that Shoshin is that great of a lynch compared to other slots. At least not right now.

I'm at the point where I just need to know his alignment. I'm not going to pretend he's lock scum.

Looking forward to your reads.

[Titus]

I had a horrible day IRL. My judgment is impaired. Drunk Titus will show soon.

[Titus]

Drunk playing is the best anyway.

I like you. I haven't played drunk in over a year I think.

So, why is worm a consensus scum read anyway?

[Titus]

I find worrying that he hasn't really shown much thought process in his reads.

He has reads, but they are kind of given without much thought behind it, and the same also is shown in his pushes.

I've seen town!Dr.Worm do better, and I find his interest in the early doctor claims/Baezu rolefishy.

The first part is meh. Burden of proficiency. Everyone has good or bad games.

I'm very interested in the role fish argument though.

[Titus]

Wouldn't his scummates say so in daychat?

[Titus]

Wouldn't his scummates say so in daychat?

What...do you mean by that?

That his scumbuddies would say for him to stop it?

I think his partners are likely GiF/Egix, and GiF replaced in Pretentious slot that wasn't very active.

Also, Pretentious claimed doctor early and that might have been to try to get reactions from the real doctors.

Well I could see GiF as scum trying to bait things out but that's not my read on him.

[Titus]

GiF replaced Pretentious in the mid of Day 2.

Pretentious was trying to bait it, not GiF in my opinion.

Yup. I saw something else.

[Titus]

Guys I am really running out of time. Once Saturday comes, I am totally done. Friday busy.

[Titus]

I think this is the wrong wagon but I will hammer before my evening commitments if it is still L minus 1 as we are not no lynching.

[Titus]

VOTE: Shoshin

Can we get back to our regularly scheduled programming?

[Titus]

I don't get how you're pushing my lynch here.

I think scum swung to worm to save you
No one in their right mind thinks that lurktastic slot was more of a threat to the scumteam. So if he flipped town, the simplest conclusion is scum wanted you alive. Therefore, you're either scum or your reads are garbage.

[Titus]

I haven't refused to take a stance on Egix's alignment. That's a horrible misrepresentation. Hell, if you want to know my stance on anyone just ask. Egix is likely town given the situation and the voting patterns.

People may call your reads garbage. I don't care about other games. The truth is, the game elected to lynch a lurker over you. Deadlines were close. Why wouldn't scum lynch you if you were any sort of threat to them whatsoever?

The simplest conclusion is that you're no threat to them. Either you're scum pushing the game in the wrong direction or you're a loudmouth stubborn townie who has zero desire to actually reread when likely wrong.

[Titus]

I don't get how you're pushing my lynch here.

I think scum swung to worm to save you
No one in their right mind thinks that lurktastic slot was more of a threat to the scumteam. So if he flipped town, the simplest conclusion is scum wanted you alive. Therefore, you're either scum or your reads are garbage.

The question you should ask is why Egix couldn't be lynched over Worm. I wasn't the only & primary alternative to Worm. Egix was under much greater pressure of being lynched after we got the extension that relieved pressure on me.

Well, probably because scum know most of the town has zero interest in helping you mislynch him.

[Titus]

I haven't refused to take a stance on Egix's alignment. That's a horrible misrepresentation. Hell, if you want to know my stance on anyone just ask. Egix is likely town given the situation and the voting patterns.

You've been asked for your read on Egix multiple times by me & others, including Egix himself. This is the first time you've said anything about Egix despite these questions.

What about the voting patterns makes Egix likely town?

Well, they can intercede if these "others" feel it is unanswered. Most players know I read by data, not fair dust. I'd have a full fledged VCA but for some reason scum haven't been lynched. Wonder why. Maybe shosin drowned out the smart town?

Point blank, your continued survival makes you benefit scum. I'm town. So everyone you are pushing has high odds of being town.

Most everyone you push as a scumread was voting you yesterday at some point, particularly when you were under pressure.

This is nothing more than you repeatedly steering town wrong and trying to deflect those calling you out on it.

[Titus]

I don't get how you're pushing my lynch here.

I think scum swung to worm to save you
No one in their right mind thinks that lurktastic slot was more of a threat to the scumteam. So if he flipped town, the simplest conclusion is scum wanted you alive. Therefore, you're either scum or your reads are garbage.

The question you should ask is why Egix couldn't be lynched over Worm. I wasn't the only & primary alternative to Worm. Egix was under much greater pressure of being lynched after we got the extension that relieved pressure on me.

Well, probably because scum know most of the town has zero interest in helping you mislynch him.

So you think Brass/Fumuki are scum?

I'd have to do a full VCA for a comprehensive theory on who scum are. That's most effective with a dead scum, which is why I am swinging for you.

[Titus]

You haven't answered why voting patterns point to Egix as likely town.

I already did on the voting patterns.

[Titus]

VOTE: Worm

Here she seems pretty lost and I...sympathize a lot with that. I feel like most of the scum would have at least a half-assed narrative on their reads, but looking in Shoshin ISO there really seems to be nothing.

What the fuck are you talking about? My reads have been very clear.

The scum are within the group of RC, Egix, Worm, Titus, and maybe Emperor/Eyes if not those four.

I've been clear about this. The players who are lost is everyone else.

Counterwagon?

You were a wagon earlier in the day.

Worm was a wagon earlier in the day.

RC voted for both these wagons at different points.

But then RC out of nowhere starts pushing my lynch with only hours left in the day. Egix/Worm immediately jumped on my wagon. And here we are.

I already guessed the team as RC/Egix/Worm, and that was before RC started pushing my lynch. It so happens that these three coordinated a push on me at the last minute of this day phase when it looked like Worm was the lynch.

I've been very clear about saying I'm confident the entirety of scum are within the group of RC, Egix, Worm, Emperor, or you, Titus. And I'm happy to lynch anyone in that group today, though I've repeatedly said that your predecessor (Celica) was the towniest of this group.

You never pushed the group towards Worm eh?

[Titus]

Let's test your theory, Titus. If we assume scum wanted me alive over Worm, you're saying that scum voted for Worm over me, correct? And if so, that would mean the people pushing me over Worm are also town? Is that what you're saying, Titus?

More likely than not, yes.

[Titus]

No one is saying you didn't push Egix. But you've been spamming this everyone who ever voted for me non-sense is scum and those who never did are town. It's loud, noisy and detracts. At best, you block scumhunting. At worst, you're scum.

This means, you're the best lynch. We aren't talking to each other anyway. Barring a cop guilty, my mind is made up.

[Titus]

I think I really am too old for such nonsense. Seems largely a generational divide I think but the only cop hints I look for are in living players or dead flipped cops. Anything else is tea leaves.

[Titus]

Shoshin who are your buddies?

You can be the third vote on his wagon.

[Titus]

Have there been claims/counterclaims?
Other interesting events I might have missed?

No.

[Titus]

Another post of Shosin saying one method is the universal method, trying to steer a mislynch. Premise 2 depends on so many things that are unknown. It is flat out false if Shosin's team has all the active people and could just CC the cop forcing the rest of the game into lylo. There's also the possibility of scum doctor hunting as well.

The cop then is outed as well in Icon's plan.

The correct move if we desire any claims at all is for the last remaining doctor to out. This forces scum to either a) cc the doctor b) shoot the doctor or c) have another conftown the cop doesn't have to check thus increasing the PoE noose.

I would rather just lynch Shosin.

[Titus]

Shoshin trying to sell his opinion as fact again.

[Titus]

Probability depends on the dynamic of the scumteam. A GiF kill makes sense if the town are lurkers. Kill/discredit the more seasoned players. Sell theory. Profit.

[Titus]

The worst is also a vet.

[Titus]

A GiF kill makes sense if the town are lurkers.

You're the most active player besides myself. If you're town, wouldn't that disprove your theory?

Why would scum kill the worst instead of you?

I said kill or discredit. GiF was universally townread. You're just spamming nonsense demotivating town.

[Titus]

GIF wasn't universally townread. He was one of Fumuki's top scumreads.

Fumuki is no longer in the game. Second, I think Icon is town but you just assume he is here.

[Titus]

I never read on subbing in eyes. Also, it's hard to persuade scum to self vote.

I also don't buy any sort of group think on cop clears. Only if it's dead or living crumb I see do I factor it into account.

[Titus]

OK.. so maybe she was scum and fooled me. The thing is Titus is pinging my scumdar to the mac here, but I am still voting Egix necause I trust you.

You do realize every day has been taken off the rails and Shosin is the one consistent thing right?

[Titus]

No one in their right mind thinks that lurktastic slot was more of a threat to the scumteam.

Why would scum try to lynch someone they consider a threat? Why poke the wisp nest?

If given a choice, they'd lynch the threat over the non-threat. If it was the start of the day, possibly not.

[Titus]

Who tf lynches Dr Worm?

Shosin scum. He was the other option.

[Titus]

Probability depends on the dynamic of the scumteam. A GiF kill makes sense if the town are lurkers. Kill/discredit the more seasoned players. Sell theory. Profit.

Who's an active scumt?

Shosin.

[Titus]

Who tf lynches Dr Worm?

Shosin scum. He was the other option.

I wanted to lynch Egix. How many times must I say this?

And I quoted you pushing worm to save your own bacon.

[Titus]

If you lurk this day out without voting I'm blacklisting you.

Not within the spirit of the game yo.

[Titus]

@Creature, What are you doing?

[Titus]

so far eyes would be my prime lynch candidate

pops town titus town

Dafaq? Maybe listen to town and not scum.

[Titus]

Titus why are you voting Shoshin? Just because you guys don't think alike? I read the 1v1 between you, and you were looking to work with Shoshin. That vote (and tunnel now) seems to come more from frustration then actual scumread?

I don't think the amount of stupidly wrong statements from that slot helps town anymore. The amount of protection Shosin has is insane. This town has had a toxin in it since day 1 steering the group wrong.

Those factors mean look at the active people or who is egging them on, particularly if spewing non-sense.

[Titus]

I don't wanna lynch shoshin but I don't see a spectacular case on egix either

There's a slight chance it's T v T but how else do we explain the three day failure rate or scum letting lynchbait get lynched over Shosin if Shosin is town?

[Titus]

The problem I have is that I do have meta-game experience with Jungle (Shoshin) and this is straight up townplay

I've been trying to find the odd votes on both lynches and eyes doesn't look good on D1 wagon.

I will repeat this, I think best play is to out all PR, and all clears available. Any clear slots now under fire are released, and town can scumhunt in a more guided direction with the downside that our PR's are gonna get shot back to back. The ONLY scenario where it's probably not worth it is cop having NO clears right now.

I agree with this.

[Titus]

Well the mechanics not the lynch analysis. Meta for alignment is usually crap.

[Titus]

so far eyes would be my prime lynch candidate

We were assuming he was copped though.

wait do you know that or are you just guessing

No cop has claimed.

@Shosin, It's more likely you're scum protected. Reality is we need you to shut the fuck up so we can find scum without you steering mislynch after mislynch.

[Titus]

so far eyes would be my prime lynch candidate

We were assuming he was copped though.

wait do you know that or are you just guessing

We're all assuming it. The Cop was told to check me on N1, and I don't see why they would have not. I volunteered for it.

FTR, this is the last person I check as cop. I check the nulls or VCA markers.

[Titus]

We should at least see if Egix is the cop first.

[Titus]

Egix getting run up here as the cop makes perfect sense with the gamestate.

[Titus]

Gee, it's almost like everyone pushing for a Shosin lynch is town. Who woulda thunk it? I'll feel bad if I am the agency captured dumbass but I really don't think so.

[Titus]

Regardless of your alignment Shosin, I hope you do not leave.

[Titus]

Seen it. Made the same snap judgment Shosin but I've seen almost everything.

[Titus]

I'll also admit that I thought GIF was the cop yesterday

So, you're not the cop! I am obviously not it, and if Egix is faking then scum already know where to shoot with a 50% chance of hitting a PR.

I think the real cop needs to out today. If not, then I'm voting Titus and letting it all resolve through night action.

Egix clmed cop already. Shosin flail cced.

[Titus]

Should I vote Egix or Titus? Actually, it makes sense to me that they're both scum with Clemency

We vote Titus and then both cops either get to claim a new result tomorrow or the real cop dies and we lynch the other.

You really think lynching me is a better option than Shosin who fake cced?

[Titus]

I'm just going to facepalm.

[Titus]

Creature, how can you still think Egix is possibly town? Please stretch your mind, it's not functioning well at the moment.

I just want to take the safety measures and there's also the possibility scum will spare you for another result.

Why not just have me be the cop target then? That lets me either do my VCA or forces scum to shoot me.

[Titus]

I already have a guilty on you, Titus.

You are a confirmed liar. I am humoring a real cop might exist other than Egix. You never think GiF is the real cop if you were.

[Titus]

I'll be out most of tomorrow.

[Titus]

Town loses this game 100% with these players.

I'm done with this.

(Hug) I've said this as either alignment. I think you're scum here. You remind me of a mini me.

I've been this frustrated too.

[Titus]

yeah shoshin's scum

Join us. I think he's been at L minus 1 for ages.

[Titus]

So you're claiming a guilty on me now, but want to lynch Egix?

Bye scum.

[Titus]

Wait, I think Emp unvoted

[Titus]

Why, we got scum. The trend should correct and I'll do a shiny VCA.

[Titus]

Only as scum probably. Someone had to bus here though as Creature feels town.

[Titus]

Emperor or Clem.

Poppycock

Who is this?

[Titus]

A baby alting already awww

[Titus]

Thank goodness this is scum AtE. I'd hate to be blacklisted.

[Titus]

Titus you are whitelisted.
Even though I am lynching you tomorrow because I interpret the central goal of Shoshin's play today as a powerbus on you.

A power bus that lasts two days? Wouldn't it be more effective if he just came out at start and faked a guilty?

[Titus]

Are you asking for a characterization of Shoshin's play that characterizes it as good play?

Because if someone's play involves two cop hardclaims with different results and open influence peddling I'm gonna struggle to paint that picture. Irrespective of the player's meta, alignment, or partners. I'm gonna settle for something that makes some amount of sense.

Fair enough, but the reactions suggest he was desperate to survive. His suspects were everyone that voted him.

I mean if you think it was a bus, sort me tomorrow.

[Titus]

No.

[Titus]

Also, popsofctown, I'm seeing you online.

I recommend you to unvote atleast.

He thinks I am bussing as the Fairy Godmother.

[Titus]

Shosin, I did mean I hope you stay ftr.

[Titus]

Yeah let us call this a draw.

[Titus]

Titus I didn't like bussing u

I know no one likes to bus mama. Whatever is best I am down for though.

[Titus]

Shosin, if you blacklist everyone who screws up because of experienced scum, soon you'll have no one to play with. It's your right but you are making a mistake. They are all awesome.

[Titus]

Shosin, if you blacklist everyone who screws up because of experienced scum, soon you'll have no one to play with. It's your right but you are making a mistake. They are all awesome.

To be clear, this isn't just bad play. I've played with lots of bad players who aren't blacklisted. My blacklist is small -- these five players and Alisae -- and it's never because of quality of play. Bad players can be overcome. The ones I blacklisted cannot.

I understand you feel this way. I will see you around, and I'd still love to mentor you. I think you have much promise, although I disagree with your choice.

[Titus]

Why do you assume I need mentoring?

Ouch. It's not about you needing mentoring. I've made many of the same social faux paus you're making and was trying to be nice.

I'll just see myself out.

[Titus]

Scum should be given a 1-shot vanillaizer, with backups.