Open 756: Hope Plus One (Day 5)

[northsidegal]

kjh;dalks hi i'm replacing cultofathena

[northsidegal]

who's the current biggest wagon?

[northsidegal]

decent options

[northsidegal]

Does Shoshin has town games where she does absolutely nothing, but still keeps posting and hiding behind people?

that's kind of a weird description and i don't know how to answer it

[northsidegal]

lazyreads, egix/emperor/dr worm town

[northsidegal]

idk i guess ill look at forest fire again, feels more engaged here though

yeah i guess creature also maybe, i was just going from the people i'm seeing (on page 15 right now). his early posts were weird though, i actually thought he was deliberately making random scummy posts.

buki also probably town

[northsidegal]

i mean yeah i also think shoshin is probably scum here

just can't really comment on "hiding behind other people" or whatever

[northsidegal]

I AM A VERY AGGRESSIVE WORM

NO.. you are CONFRUSING ME with KRAINE TAPAS!!

it's kain tepes' birthday today, actually!

[northsidegal]

zzzzzz ego fights

[northsidegal]

baezu's iso is pretty scummy

[northsidegal]

yeah, i'm caught up. fine with my vote i think

i think both shoshin and wizard have a decent shot at being scum. if shoshin is pulling some gambit by playing this way deliberately then i'll readily admit that don't understand it, and i would question its efficiency so far. i think shoshin is a pretty efficient player in general so it seems somewhat unlikely to me. i have to recognize that shoshin is far more willing to use "unconventional" strategies as town than most people, but even still i would remain skeptical that her play this game is one of those.

wizard's random 100% scumread on rc is super random and feels planned. i know that i made this same misread in my very last game but it's still really weird to me (and honestly i still think that person in that game was lying, despite being town).

that being said, it does add an element of credibility to wizard's claim that he could point out that the macho doctor role pm doesn't actually contain anything regarding being macho. certainly not impossible for an astute scum player, though.

is there a reason to lynch wizard today now that via his claim his slot is somewhat self-resolving?

[northsidegal]

If Shoshin is town Baezu is probably scum

I don't know about that if Shoshin is scum.

this sounds like "if it is saturday then 1+1=2" to me. i can't see the relationship although i can agree that i think the conclusion is correct

[northsidegal]

i don't disagree that it might take a while to resolve and i'm not sure what to tell you with regards to ignoring wizard

but i do think that it would be a mechanical mistake to lynch him today.

[northsidegal]

in the first place, are we considering that scum would choose to leave him alive for the sake of potentially attempting to lynch him anyways?

i think the answer depends on the specifics of who the scumteam is, but still.

having the identity of one ostensible doctor be public is also valuable in organizing protections.

[northsidegal]

If we just leash the cop on him I'll not elsewhere

seems suboptimal

[northsidegal]

yeah like

i think that the scumteam probably cannot afford to keep a doctor alive, especially if we were to do something like buki suggested.

[northsidegal]

You realize if we out the cop and tell him to target them the cop will just die correct

i don't think the idea is that we out the identity of the cop. i think the idea is that if we can come up with someone whom everyone agrees should be copped, we can know the result of the investigation based on if the cop comes out with a guilty tomorrow. if not, we assume that everyone followed through with the check and the person came up innocent.

if the cop does out with a guilty and wizard wasn't killed, we simply tell wizard to target someone else and tell the hidden doctor to target the cop. then, if the cop dies, we know that there are still two "hidden" docs, that wizard is fakeclaiming, and we have a guilty without any of the doctors even needing to claim.

[northsidegal]

oh i actually forgot about that

don't think it changes much, though?

[northsidegal]

although i do think that makes it even more illogical to lynch wizard today

[northsidegal]

You understand that claiming doc skyrockets his scum equity correct?

i really don't think it matters at this point.

i just don't think it makes any sense to lynch him today.

[northsidegal]

why is it the correct mechanical play to lynch him?

[northsidegal]

Because he's scum

i've detailed why i think it's mechanically incorrect to lynch him. if you disagree, feel free to explain yourself.

Holy shit. This might be one good idea.

What if we actually direct this like this:

We take 2 most scummy players.

After that, one of them claim "cop me" by their own, and the cop will check. (looks crazy right? but we can even get reads by this)

We direct the other two protects elsewhere.

Scum either needs to kill the confirmed town that before was lynchbait, or he needs to risk killing with 2 other protects around the players, all the while the cop can still be protected since there's 2 doctor alives.

I think it's like, a good idea. Maybe not so much. But still, any suggestions?

i don't see what the difference is between this and the idea of just collectively deciding upon a single player that the cop targets. what's the purpose of taking two people and having one of them choose to be investigated?

[northsidegal]

avoid the cop being the target for copping.

this is desirable, but at the same time i feel like in the scenario you described scum would pretty much never choose to be copped. i guess it comes down to whether we care more about getting innos or guilties.

[northsidegal]

on what?

buki's thing sounds good

[northsidegal]

i'm not sure there's a better system than saying "wiz, protect this player, any other doctors protect that player"

[northsidegal]

i think it's desirable for doctors to protect the same player if wiz isn't the doctor because, if we believe that the other doctor follows through with the agreed upon target, it essentially counterclaims wiz without any of the doctors actually having to reveal their identities

[northsidegal]

why?

[northsidegal]

i would be fine with that.

what if we make it dependent on the flip? if shoshin flips scum then it's 100% on one person, and if she flips town then it's randomized?

[northsidegal]

NSG, why are you voting me? You know from experience that I'm not always active or engaged in games.

i'm not voting you for your activity or engagement

i'm voting you because you feel off this game. you feel like a caricature of yourself as town.

like, the "more votes on creature!" is a classic shoshin line but in this case it didn't really feel warranted.

i think all of these posts are weird:

Spoiler:

Hey RC, if you assume I'm town, who are the scum?

Hey RC, if you assume I'm town, who are the scum?

I need your help please.

CoA always feels so absent in my games. Is she scum, RC?

i also don't follow your buki scumread or really believe that you yourself believe it. i get that this is kind of a 1v1 thing that i'm saying right now when it comes to who's right and who isn't, but i believe in your abilities as town to a great degree. seeing you scumread buki doesn't place any confidence in me that you're town.

[northsidegal]

Okay, NSG. Please unvote while I have a chance to address your concerns.

you're not at any concern of being quickhammered as far as i'm aware so i'm not going to do that, sorry

[northsidegal]

i'm not confident on egix being town, it was literally the laziest possible read

[northsidegal]

rc just stop, what are you trying to accomplish

[northsidegal]

do you think he has an objetice in mind...?

RC's objective is for the mafia to obtain parity with the town.

you stop too

the confidence level you display in nearly all of your posts makes me not want to talk to you at all. i think it would do you well to remember that all of us have been wrong before and all of us can be wrong right now. trying to pretend that that isn't true is to deny reality. you don't look any better by acting this way if you're right, but you

certainly

look a lot worse if you're wrong.

please try to engage things on a higher level than just "RC is scums"

[northsidegal]

fairly sure, i guess.

[northsidegal]

haven't put all that much effort into it but don't feel that i'm likely to be wrong

[northsidegal]

Spoiler: response to shoshin

i'm voting you because you feel off this game. you feel like a caricature of yourself as town.

I understand why you're saying this. The truth is I was caricaturing myself a little bit earlier in the game (e.g. the self-vote comment) for the giggles.

like, the "more votes on creature!" is a classic shoshin line but in this case it didn't really feel warranted.

I use this line to build wagons at the start of games & that's what I was doing with Creature. What makes you feel it wasn't warranted?

perhaps saying it wasn't "warranted" was a poor choice of words, although i still think there's an element of it there. i think my central point there was that it felt more like something you'd do as an imitation of your towngame than something that's actually natural. like, when you say "more votes" and vote someone, i expect it to actually be because you have something, no matter how minor, that you think is worth going off of. the random creature wagon to me seemed more just like an opportunity to pretend to be going for early wagons and gaining information than actually doing that.

did you learn anything from the creature wagon? was anything gained?

i think all of these posts are weird:

Hey RC, if you assume I'm town, who are the scum?

Hey RC, if you assume I'm town, who are the scum?

I need your help please.

CoA always feels so absent in my games. Is she scum, RC?

I don't like that you're calling these posts "weird," your analysis usually dives a bit deeper than that. You might disagree with this but I think calling stuff "weird and therefore scummy" is a minor scum tell.

I don't see the problem with the posts. In 272 & 282, I was feeling overwhelmed by my games & was hoping I could sheep RC's scumreads without having to give this game more time/effort, and I asked RC to assume I was town to increase the accuracy of his scumreads for my sake. What's "weird" about this?

What's the problem with 341?

a better descriptor might be "unnatural" (and i've been calling things weird since my second game on site, where it was a subject of a lot of discussion)

why bother asking RC who's scum instead of just sheeping him on his vote? and if you had read enough to see the context of his vote on eyes and figured that it wasn't really a true vote on a scumread, it seems to me like that would be enough reading to do something other than just ask RC that.

as a whole i think my problem and what i'm attempting to get across here is that while i feel that normally when looking at your play there's either some internal thought process that i can see clear evidence of or there's classic shoshin town traits (direct questioning, hard defending townreads, etc.), i haven't seen that from your play this game so far.

341 i suppose i expect you to have your own thoughts on CoA and the question feels somewhat redundant. if RC were scumreading CoA i would expect him to make it clear – i guess i just don't think you asked a very good question. if you had your own doubts about CoA's alignment, i might expect you to raise some of those doubts. if you outright disagreed, i might expect a "why is CoA town, RC?"

i also don't follow your buki scumread or really believe that you yourself believe it. i get that this is kind of a 1v1 thing that i'm saying right now when it comes to who's right and who isn't, but i believe in your abilities as town to a great degree. seeing you scumread buki doesn't place any confidence in me that you're town.

It's not a 1v1, I don't do 1v1s unless it's a forced 1v1 at LYLO.

I'm scumreading Buki because he's making up crap about my meta to get me lynched without taking the time to check himself. It's something I've done as scum (I made up meta about Saudade in BoP mafia to get him mislynched) so I'm sensitive to it. Is this a bad reason to scumread someone?

i didn't mean 1v1 in the sense that i'm 1v1-ing you, i meant it in the sense that one of my reasons is explicitly sort of based on my being right elsewhere on something that you disagree on.

i think basically nobody makes up meta as scum.

[northsidegal]

Can you explain the Buki read, NSG?

think that his effort to meta you even if you think it's wrong comes from town more often than not

think his level of engagement here and his arguing with rc is probably +town given that i think scum buki more likely than not isn't that invested

think that his thoughts on mechanics have been pro-town

[northsidegal]

me?

i'm null on you right now

[northsidegal]

no

[northsidegal]

i think i could be convinced to lynch baezu and cop shoshin

only works if everyone agrees

[northsidegal]

i think that baezu is likely scum and it has nothing to do with your alignment

[northsidegal]

I think this game is probably NSGs turn to throw our coop games

i'm certain that if i'm wrong on a lynch or something you'll call it throwing but it isn't the case, nor is disagreeing with you on reads "woating" as you called it earlier in the game

turns out that sometimes it takes a few days to come to the correct conclusion

[northsidegal]

For the record in our last game with scum Buki nsg hard townread him and derailed his lynch when I wanted to lynch him D1

what game would that be? micro 801?

[northsidegal]

you definitely can't be talking about nibbui in 833, not about 2039, so that's the only one i can conceivably think of.

except i definitely didn't "hard townread" him in 801, so i'm a bit confused.

[northsidegal]

this was the wrong decision regardless of if wizard flips scum or not.

[northsidegal]

regardless i do think that i'm well within my rights to exclude this day phase from my record given the circumstances. i didn't do so for varsoon and i think i deserve at least 1/2 of these cut.

given what circumstances?

[northsidegal]

you think celica is town?

[northsidegal]

hi

kinda hate this game, but yeah

[northsidegal]

So technically, without any read bias, at least one scum in {Shoshin, RC, northysidegal, Fumuki}.
It may look like I just threw 1/3 of the playerlist and calling there's one scum, but those are actually list of whoever I think are "competent" enough to see the doctor tell out of Baezu.

my nightkill choices have historically been terrible, although i appreciate your calling me competent

[northsidegal]

hi, gif.

i'm not sure if we've ever been alive in a game together. if we have, i can't remember. i'm glad you're here, at least. i hear good things about you from everyone and i've liked your play so far

[northsidegal]

@mod can you please include a list of players currently alive somewhere in the opening posts

Spoiler:

Eyes without a face
Creature
Egix96
Dr Worm
northsidegal
Emperor flippyNips
Celica
Fumuki
Shoshin
RadiantCowbells
GIF

[northsidegal]

(i'm aware that i'm not giving reads, by the way.)

[northsidegal]

unsubscribe

[northsidegal]

i could agree with that list with maybe celica and creature swapped

probably a bit murkier on the exact placement of emperor and eyes myself as well

[northsidegal]

i do think that worm is playing differently than 2060 although not to the point where i would confidently townread him, and i do agree that his associations with RC are fairly bad

[northsidegal]

he was scum in mini normal 2060 for context

[northsidegal]

actually creature's iso is less town than i remember

don't see many reasons to townread celica

[northsidegal]

we've got quite a cast of names in the playerlist

games like this always end in hundred-page long disasters

[northsidegal]

i actually think that egix is town

[northsidegal]

is that via process of elimination

[northsidegal]

celica seems like she's good at scum. just a guess, though

[northsidegal]

no clue who told you that

wouldn't get your hopes up if i were you

[northsidegal]

i am also preliminarily townreading emperor.

@emperor

, do you only have the one completed scumgame here?

[northsidegal]

nevermind, found another one, and for the moment feel relatively confident in emperor being town.

oh boy, i get to be shoshin to shoshin.

Why aren't you townreading Emperor, Shoshin?

[northsidegal]

stop trying to randomly solve the scumteam.

find one scum and lynch them, then repeat.

[northsidegal]

{nsg}
{egix, emperor, fumuki}
{creature, gif}
{everyone else}

[northsidegal]

I hate the fact that I'm 8-4 and I feel so much pressure to perform

expectations are indeed crushing.

very relatable.

[northsidegal]

{nsg}
{egix, emperor, fumuki}
{creature, gif}
{everyone else}

this {everyone else} is actually a PoE of 5 people:

{eyes, dr worm, celica, shoshin, RC}

[northsidegal]

clarify?

[northsidegal]

by the way, are you trying to manipulate me right now? (i.e. on this page)

you can answer truthfully.

[northsidegal]

Between myself and eyes both slots will be clear tomorrow. At least one is clear today by lack of guilty claims

this isn't reliable and we both know that is the case. given that, i think it makes sense to not allow it to confound my thinking or allow me to overlook something potentially important.

[northsidegal]

Not really. Not sure where you think that I am.

it was a question, not an accusation.

[northsidegal]

why do you want eyes checked instead of celica?

[northsidegal]

but I don't think Celica wins a LyLo too often.

you'd be surprised at the kind of lylos that people have won.

the lylos that people have won after killing me remain eternally fresh in my mind. anyways, that's neither here nor there.

[northsidegal]

VOTE: Celica

whatever to be honest

Shoshin is at least posting I suppose

please don't vote people just because.

i came into today hating this game. i now feel determined to solve it, or at the least do my best.

Brilliant theory, that one.

it's a dumb theory and I never believed it

I just didn't understand why NSG thought you could be manipulating her about the cop thing.

it seems you're seeing some kind of connection in my questions that isn't there.

[northsidegal]

It's not a just because vote?

Do you want us to unvote?

i was talking to fumuki.

[northsidegal]

that tier of townreads is mainly gut feeling townreads

[northsidegal]

Will I ever be a townread again or is that just not happening

how am i supposed to answer that question?

was i townreading you earlier in the game?

Do you want me to leave the vote somewhere before leaving?

I might not be back for quite a bit of time. Maybe even replaced if it takes longer than I expect.

i don't want to control your vote, it's up to you.

[northsidegal]

Rc (aq) + CuSO₄ (aq) -> Cu (s) + RcSO₄ (aq)

i feel like the electrons are unbalanced here?

[northsidegal]

just wanted to confirm, seemed like you had elemental Rc in the beginning there

[northsidegal]

though i guess elemental Rc would be a solid rather than aq

[northsidegal]

Also I believe Rc is not an element so

shouldn't it be RC, then?

NSG, how would your reads change if you knew with 100% certainty that I was town?

i would have one less player in my PoE

guess i might also be more inclined to vote with you or something

[northsidegal]

right then, time to make the effort.

[northsidegal]

why do i feel like eyes/celica are the distraction lynches from the real scum?

[northsidegal]

that's saying nothing of my read on either of those two, for the record.

[northsidegal]

not those two.

[northsidegal]

actually, i take that back. i don't think that. that's just the feeling i get regarding their wagons, that they're distractions

[northsidegal]

you know, it's hard to tell



(my point relates more to consensus scumreads and an overarching narrative than it does specific votes, although that is the case for celica right now. call me ankamius)

[northsidegal]

if they don't, there's no reason that the idea of him being copped should be floated.

[northsidegal]

VOTE: Dr Worm

[northsidegal]

why is eyes a more clear check and anyone else requires crumbing?

[northsidegal]

unless i ask you specifically, i have no desire to control your actions.

[northsidegal]

feels wrong. guess i'm not much for telling other people what to do.

[northsidegal]

i'm rarely sure of anything.

not especially sure, in this situation, but enough that i believed that it was warranted and did it in the first place.

i'm voting him right now half because i don't like his celica vote and half because i find it odd that he hasn't been wagoned.

[northsidegal]

you can die if you're going to keep ignoring this game, creature.

[northsidegal]

I don't get what scum equity Wormy has...

as far as I can tell, people are only trying to lynch him because they find him annoying.

Is there even an actual case against him?

who's doing that?