Open 756: Hope Plus One (Day 5)

[Iconeum]

woop woop

[Iconeum]

Shoshin who are your buddies?

[Iconeum]

I haven't fully read all 90+ pages yet, but quicly read through everything and also the most interesting ISO's

My nr 1 townread is emperor flippynippies

Scum is Shoshin and we'll know his buddies once he answers my question above

[Iconeum]

Have there been claims/counterclaims?
Other interesting events I might have missed?

[Iconeum]

9 alive, 6v3. So we have 1 wrong lynch left.

Cop should have 2 clears, and with 2 PR left we can effectively clear 4/9 slots.
That gives a nice lynch pool of 5 players. Lynch scum, cop dies.

D4 it's 5v2, with 3 confirmed town. I think this gives the best odds for town.

Massclaim is what I suggest. Thoughts?

[Iconeum]

Icon, what are your concerns about me?

the colour of your role pm

who are your buddies?

[Iconeum]

and you are trying to pocket the replacements with bad reasons

-activity based meta read on my predecessor
-WIFOM read on eyes

[Iconeum]

Your strongest townread is based on level of activity?
Do you think we should massclaim?

Your entire NK on GiF theory is based on the assumption scum thought him to be the cop… it ends right there. Townreading someone based on this alone in a game this size is just wrong and it's scummy.

[Iconeum]

whats up gamers

scum alert

[Iconeum]

hey shoshin i found one of your buddies

[Iconeum]

what games have we played together?

[Iconeum]

rofl Hi Jungle

[Iconeum]

If ur really Jungle then I do an average of 100% town mis-read on you

[Iconeum]

I need to re-assess this now. The kind of reads you are putting up actually make perfect sense as town!Jungle

[Iconeum]

what do you think of massclaim?

[Iconeum]

not massclaiming potentially loses 2 clears if they get the cop

[Iconeum]

so basicly it's hoping for 3 clears (or a guilty), or being assured 2 clears and working with 4! conftown

[Iconeum]

what do you think of massclaim?

I was the first to propose it... it's like you don't read my posts or something?

It's 90+ pages and I've had a grand total of 2 days to read everything. It's likely I missed important stuff

Will look more into this game tomorrow

[Iconeum]

Titus why are you voting Shoshin? Just because you guys don't think alike? I read the 1v1 between you, and you were looking to work with Shoshin. That vote (and tunnel now) seems to come more from frustration then actual scumread?

[Iconeum]

So why are we not massclaiming yet?

9 alive, we can conftown probably 4. Maybe 3. That still gives us 6 unconf of which 3 are scum.
If the cop has 2 clears that are alive, it's a no-brainer to come forth and claim. With 1 clear we still get a 50% chance of hitting scum (blindly, if we don't process other information).
If the cop has 0 clears, this game might be pretty hard to win at this point.

[Iconeum]

I'm not voting Shoshin today.

[Iconeum]

I replaced in knowing I hate your slot and being excited to lynch it, didn't find out more about this egix guy until I iso'ed him just now. He's the second scummiest slot in the game though. Largely by PoE.
It makes me paranoid how difficult you seem to be to lynch though.
I'm pretty happy with growlithe and shosho being the leading wagons for today, it's miles better quality lynching than D1.

This is a strange way of putting it... You iso'ed egix, and you think he's the second scummiest slot but because of PoE?

[Iconeum]

No ducks here

You have a dragon though

[Iconeum]

Thoughts on Titus and Egix?

[Iconeum]

I think both Shoshin and Egix were L-2 (ish)

[Iconeum]

I don't wanna lynch shoshin but I don't see a spectacular case on egix either

[Iconeum]

1. Eyes without a face
2. Creature
3. Egix96
6. Clemency northsidegal CultOfAthena
7. Emperor flippyNips
8. Titus Celica Miss Kobayashi Maru
10. Iconeum Fumuki Buki Skellen
11. Shoshin
12. popsofctown brassherald RadiantCowbells

There's 3 scum in this list and if we don't set up the correct lynches for consecutive days, this will not end well. We need more information so that we can focus our attention to the right players.

I feel scum is more likely to be in (Titus, pops, clem, egix, eyes).
Will do a readback to see how the mislynches happened.

[Iconeum]

If somehow RC is town, then 1. he's bad and 2. my scumread reverts to Eyes. But that's unlikely.

VOTE: TheWizard

Lining up lynches is a scum tell. Also this is strike two. I gave you leeway the first time because I thought you were townie earlier, but this one I can't just chalk up and let go.

UNVOTE:

Just in case Wiz' self vote isn't hammer

Eyes, what reason did you have to try and 'unhammer'?

[Iconeum]

The problem I have is that I do have meta-game experience with Jungle (Shoshin) and this is straight up townplay

I've been trying to find the odd votes on both lynches and eyes doesn't look good on D1 wagon.

I will repeat this, I think best play is to out all PR, and all clears available. Any clear slots now under fire are released, and town can scumhunt in a more guided direction with the downside that our PR's are gonna get shot back to back. The ONLY scenario where it's probably not worth it is cop having NO clears right now.

[Iconeum]

Also Clemency has a very bad intro imo, I'll look into that tomorrow.

Plenty of time and no need for this day to end quickly

[Iconeum]

Will wait for the others to hop in and share opinions on claiming.
If we can find players willing to massclaim, Shoshin/eyes/Clem are a good place to start the popcorn

[Iconeum]

Made these as I read, so some of it is outdated but maybe usefull still

so far eyes would be my prime lynch candidate

We were assuming he was copped though.

Never trust someone to do as you think they'll do

so far eyes would be my prime lynch candidate

He's COP CLEARED though.

No he's not. Not at all.

Eyes, what reason did you have to try and 'unhammer'?

Don't ask me about anything that happened in the stone ages. I don't remember and I won't go back to check for what I've been thinking in pre-historic eras. We're here now, and I am playing the game from the point it got resumed.

Ok I won't bother you with that stuff anymore. You can be the second scum that is lynched. Seriously

Egix town
Nips town
pops town
Me town

leaves
Eyes, Shoshin, Titus, Clemency, Iconeum

Why would Egix check Emperor last night? C'mon, don't fall for this.

Real cop, don't out yourself.

Completely disagree. COP HAS TO OUT. We need to popcorn and get the cop claim. If Egix goes un-cc'd, we lynch Shoshin. If Egix is cc'd, we lynch there and then eyes tomorrow barring a clear.

Scum were always going to claim cop here. Always.

Why didn't he check me or Titus last night? Why wasn't RC his top townread on D2? Why didn't he come into this day phase at least hinting about an innocent result on Emperor? C'mon, this claim is bullshit.

I agree that the targets make no sense based on his play if he were town. Scum should Always claim cop there, but guess what? So will the cop.
WE NEED THE REAL COP TO OUT, WE HAVE A GUARENTEED SCUM LYNCH THEN. I will not participate in a lynch on an un-cc'd cop.

Alright, fine.

I claim cop with a guilty on Egix & Titus.

Please lynch them.

OH COME ON, THIS IS BS

IF YOU PEEKED TITUS RED WHY NOT OUT IMMEDIATELY?

Once she flips town you are dead meat.

And after this post, there is absolutely ZERO chance that Egix is the cop. Shoshin's cop claim was (to me at least) very obviously faked, and I don't scumread him for it. LAL is a very bad principle and it loses games for town. More importantly, this type of post doesn't come from a cop who is cc'd.

And also, SCUM IS NOT GONNA COUNTERCLAIM THE COP. Now i'm fine with lynching egix today and most likely push eyes tomorrow. Not convinced on Titus scum but if real cop doesn't out, I think titus slot should be investigated.

"Lynch all liars" isn't a thing.

This is true. I love the play from Shoshin, because the scum are gonna try to push that claim and it's awkward.

Do you agree with me that scum almost always fake claim cop in this setup when they're getting lynched in order to out the cop?

@ whoever the cop is -- DO NOT CLAIM.

I would still prefer cop to claim IF he has clears.

[Iconeum]

The problem here is we are about to lynch a claimed cop who is not CC'd.

[Iconeum]

Alright, fine.

I claim cop

I'll also admit that I thought GIF was the cop yesterday

Wtf is this?

Why is anyone voting anywhere else? Shoshin hardclaimed cop and then almost immediately forgot she can't discuss her d2 rolehunting if she's claimed cop??

Like.. there is no other way to interpret this. You try to read it as a joke, but then there's posts about NKs contingent on her claim... It seems like a really hard distancing gambit she pulled out her hooves because the thinks she's locked in as a lynch.

Eyes, you quoted the post where you show her lying. Why are you voting other players?

I'm going to assume Clemency is just still skimming.

This can very well be scum. It's the kind of awkward post scum makes to push something a townie 'did wrong'.

[Iconeum]

My best bet right now is 3 scum in (Titus, pops, eyes, Egix)

[Iconeum]

Why are you voting me, Egix?

I've been scumreading you all game. Why shouldn't I be?

Explain the reasoning behind your claimed targets for investigation, Egix?

No. I think it's Titus+Clemency+one of the other 2, so it's safer to lynch in Titus/Clemency

The problem is that you can't be presumed clear any more, unless people buy into the theory that you're cop-hunt cleared.

This is scum v scum

[Iconeum]

please explain your scumreads on eyes and egix

[Iconeum]

sure but you forgot to mention he's swinging that sword with his pants dropped to his ankles

[Iconeum]

actually, why don't we just try to lynch eyes?
the cop claim will prove itself by being (or not being) alive tomorrow lol

VOTE: eyes

Yo egix, you have the unique opportunity to survive your claim by voting eyes here.

[Iconeum]

shoshin, you know i'm town. Work with me. We both know cop claim is highly likely faked, but it will prove itself. It makes a fine lynch tomorrow. Help us with eyes first

[Iconeum]

Egix cop is either false or true

If false, he will be alive tomorrow and we lynch him.
If true, he dies by NK. We will have this information to work with. Small chance scum goes crazy and tries to WIFOM the situation by not killing the cop, we still lynch Egix but he shares his result and we have a bunch of confs.

[Iconeum]

For the record, I still think best play is for cop to cc so we are assured a scum lynch today. It provides us the best chance of winning the game. With no cc, I have to assume Egix is actually the cop and treat his results as accurate.

[Iconeum]

Egix, most importantly I want you to explain why you chose your targets for copping

[Iconeum]

Why didn't you try to soft during the day that eyes wasn't cop checked?

[Iconeum]

Ahh, so much to read, so little time... Just wanna respond to these quickly:

i thought that egix was scum in this game when i thought he was scum in 2070, i think that he's town now + i think his read change on me knowing my alignment in that game probably comes from town as well.

Mmm you're not wrong in saying that my read on you has changed since D1, but what I was saying was that I don't think Shoshin should still be scumreading you if Fumuki is right in saying that you were a driving force in moving the lynch from her to Wizard. (From her perspective, what reason does scum!you have for moving from one townie to another?) To me it kinda seems like a perspective slip for Shosh.

I thought she was scum being advised in the scum PT to crumb doctor but was doing it very wrong.

That's not possible, scum PT doesn't open until N1 in this setup.

Looking into Egix ISO, this pops up and can actually prove his N1 cop on RC.

Why have you been scumreading me?

No offence intended, but have you been reading my posts? I thought I'd been explaining myself quite well but if not, I apologise.

All right then, if I'm wrong on you and you're actually town, then now's your chance to show it.

- Can you remember why you said "I'd feel tempted to self-vote in that case, RC." in post#36? Because I don't think that's a very towny attitude to have.

- You seem to ask the question "if you assume I'm town, who are the scum?" or some variation of it, often. What do you intend to achieve by asking it?

- P#798 - "I'm also sort of lazy this game because I have the backup of RC & NSG, so I feel less urgency about sorting alignments." Why those two players specifically?

- P#978 - "You're scum until you stop scumreading me." Can you remember why you said that?

- P#986 - "I don't have a solid read on either of RC or NSG." Then why were you using them as backup?

This is from looking through the first ~half of your ISO. That should be enough for the time being.

What are your reads, Egix?

{NSG, Freezer}
{Cowbells, Fumuki}
{Eyes, Wormy}

Flippy - If I be honest I don't really have a read on him atm

{Creature}
{Titus slot, Shosh}

Egix, why did you not put Cowbells as top townread here?

[Iconeum]

why didn't you vote shoshin for the counterclaim?

[Iconeum]

Fuck me but i'm starting to believe the cop claim here.

From Egix perspective there should be 3 scum in 6 slots (Ico, Shoshin, Titus, Creature, Eyes, Clem). There's nothing inconsistent in Egix play vs these slots. Pushing Shoshin, Eyes.

IF THERE IS ANOTHER COP, YOU MUST CC TODAY.
Otherwise I will treat Egix as conftown, together with pops and NippleFlips

[Iconeum]

If that's true, real cop has to out results

[Iconeum]

Exactly. I feel that a cop would have already jumped on this opportunity to kill scum, which is why i'm inclined to believe Egix despite everything.

[Iconeum]

If Egix is cop, we should be good in lynching eyes then Titus.

[Iconeum]

VOTE: eyes
now we're talking

You think they are buddies?

[Iconeum]

And if Egix is cop, why the fuck did Shoshin counterclaim? Scum doesn't do that. They NK the claim.

[Iconeum]

That counterclaim from Shoshin only comes from town, ever.

[Iconeum]

Creature can be town, though.

So eyes, Titus.

It doesn't add up for me

Leaves 1 scum in Creature, Shoshin, Clemency…

OK i've waited long enough time to popcorn

I'm VT, clemency next

[Iconeum]

you think? did you have to go check scum PT to see what you are supposed to claim lol?

I'd say Titus next but Clem gets to choose

[Iconeum]

wait a minute didn't i just finish a game with you where you were the bloody lyncher and I did all the work for you?

[Iconeum]

i'm relieved

[Iconeum]

Shoshin if you are actually the cop you play this very very very poorly. Don't try to pull your 'everyone else is terrible' crap. You managed to convince a bunch of town players you can't be the cop lol.

YOU HAD A FUCKING GUILTY. You let town go round in circles, while we could be working with COP CONFIRMED information? We could be spending our time lynching ACTUAL scum and looking for his buddies, but you choose to sow chaos and confusion probably just because you don't wanna eat a bullet?

/rant over

[Iconeum]

So scum is Titus/Egix/probably Clem

Tomorrow Egix first

VOTE: Titus

[Iconeum]

I'm 99% certain that scum won't let me live to LYLO unless somehow Egix/Titus are town, in which case town has already lost this game.

Hey nice soft for your results there, cop.

Alright, fine.

I claim cop with a guilty on Egix & Titus.

Please lynch them.

Nice! If only this would match with your behaviour.

Yes, I lied. Get over it.

I swear next time we play together you pull crap like this i'm gonna lynch you and I won't even care for your allignment.

[Iconeum]

Clem why did you lie to me

[Iconeum]

oh we're claiming?
vt

[Iconeum]

did you check the role PM for

this

game though? and it said vt?

[Iconeum]

the truth will set you free

[Iconeum]

confess now and all will be forgiven in the afterlife

[Iconeum]

If you are actually town in this game i'm probably blacklisting you. If you are scum trying to de-organize town then this is just well played.

[Iconeum]

if ur alive tomorrow we lynch you

[Iconeum]

exactly how did you manage 3 clears on 2 nights though?

[Iconeum]

That's three innocents for two nights though

sorry creature didn't see this. i looked back but it's effectively D3 with no nightstart so?

[Iconeum]

i'd love to see shoshin answer those 3 clears though.

[Iconeum]

i mean the only reasonable explanation is a scumslip

[Iconeum]

Like seriously, scum is the only one pulling stuff like this. As town, it's borderline playing against wincon

[Iconeum]

Egix goes down 100% today

Creature very bad vibes

[Iconeum]

Great to have a cop from which we now have no trustworthy results...

[Iconeum]

Me/Eyes/Emperor Flippynippies town

[Iconeum]

Doc can claim tomorrow for an extra conftown

rip egix

any final words?

[Iconeum]

Eyes is town.

Scum Eyes never kills GIF.

If only we had a cop we could trust, then I'd clear Eyes. But I think I'll clear Eyes anyway.

Me town
Eyes town
Icon town

in-between: Clemency, pops, Emperor

Titus scum
Egix scum

Creature is town, too.

[Iconeum]

So Clemency is actually my best bet for 3rd scum

[Iconeum]

VOTE: Egix

[Iconeum]

Doc has to claim or cc. Anything less then a conf clem pr has him lynched

Also i am geting married today so i am absent for a little whild

Ill check in tomorrow for the claims

[Iconeum]

Still on vacation here

What's up

Shall we kill pops?

[Iconeum]

Oh right this is the game where cop sowed distrust everywhere

I cached up the last 3 pages

So godmid or pops eats rope today right?
What's the vote count at?

[Iconeum]

Well that's the problem this game. There is a cop clear on creature

Or is there?

[Iconeum]

VOTE: game abandon

sorry for the absence everyone. Calling it a draw seems like a best case scenario

maybe i'll meet you all in another game

[Iconeum]

Lynch Godmid.

Go into LYLO with you, Icon, and Pops.

Play the game out.

Why do you assume I need mentoring?

You should consider the fact that, despite YOU having solved the game early on, you did a VERY poor job at convincing the rest of the town.
Also lying and shading as cop really fucked town over.

I haven't had a single positive or fun experience with you in any game, so I don't mind the blacklist.