Open 756: Hope Plus One (Day 5)

[Godmid]

Hi there.

I'll be able to start reading through the thread in about 15 hours. However, if the remaining town members have already made up their mind, there is a limit to what I can do as someone who has subbed into a game in day 5 mylo. I am town and I do want to try to help the town win, but I also don't want to read through 3000 posts if anything I say is just going to fall on deaf ears.

[Godmid]

Sorry, I only saw that I'd been replaced into the game late last night and I mistook the 4-player replacement list as the alive list.

I'll read through the thread and give my opinion in a little bit.

And thanks!

[Godmid]

Skygazer is towny af, I think it's between Krazy and Elsa Jay.

I find your viewpoints to be intriguing.

I ended up getting delayed a bit, but I'll have time tonight to make quite a lot of progress on the thread (lucky me).

[Godmid]

Okay, here we go.

[Godmid]

This is really slow going for me. I don't have anything planned for tomorrow so will likely have a large amount of time to continue reading this, but getting through the thread will likely be a multi-day endeavour for me.

Quick question for everyone except Emperor though; Do you think the following post was scummy or NAI, and why?

Why can't I just roll scum?

Townie ^^

Nah, not really.

[Godmid]

I think slightly scummy in a vacuum because most players don't really want to roll scum. But if Creature's meta is that he enjoys rolling scum it can swing all the way over to towntell.
I'm assuming you're not actually asking about Egix's post because he's dead, but I would say it's scummy that he didn't elaborate.

I'm asking whether Egix's post was scummy or NAI (or towny) and why.

[Godmid]

Still working my way through this.

[Godmid]

Sorry that I am eating so much time going through the thread. I am going to do everything I can to make sure that I have finished catching up by the end of tomorrow night, giving 36 hours before EoD with me being up to date.

I was aware that Emperor is effectively confirmed town. I wasn't aware of Ico's position (I'm still back when Buki was in control). I was fairly suspicious of that spot, but I'll treat it as confirmed town if something comes up later which makes her effectively guaranteed town. I'm having a hard time picking up anything to scumread RC over so far and his early reads have aged fairly well, and I don't think Creature has interacted enough to get much of a read at the point I am at.

[Godmid]

If Buki later does something that makes her effectively unlynchable, there isn't any point in me keeping her as a suspect and it makes my job easier if I can eliminate a player from the PoE.

[Godmid]

One of these statements is now true...

-I have read through the entire thread.
-I have read through enough of the thread that I feel confident in being able to bluff as having read the entire thread.

[Godmid]

I can expand on my reasoning, but I think it's just going to come down to this;

-After reading through the thread, I think that I am willing to risk the game on town!RC
-You all seem willing to risk the game on town!Buki and I trust your guyses judgement.
-Emperor is 100% town.
-This leaves the PoE as {me,Creature} or FMPOV, {Creature}

If you want to say whatever it is you were wanting to say, go for it. However, I am fairly confident I know where my vote is going to end up.

[Godmid]

If you agree Emperor that town!Pops is more likely then town!Creature, I'm fine moving on with the game unless you want to hear from either Ico or whoever replaces that slot.

[Godmid]

1) I respect Shoshin, but 2971 clearly wasn't based off of night actions and I really don't follow at all how that is supposed to clear you.
2) Based off of the game state that I am subbing into, the game hinges on identifying the scum as you or Pops and I don't think either of you are obvious scum. Implying that this game should be a lock town win if not for me messing it up is unfair and disingenuous.
3) I am not making this descision by myself. If Emperor (or Ico if he comes back) have a strong preference for town!you over town!pops, I am completely willing to reconsider my position.
4) My townread on RC isn't just about not finding anything to scum read him on.

[Godmid]

I think you just have read the thread but that's not enough.

Okay.

[Godmid]

I could reply some more to Creature, but ultimately, if Ico is convinced beyond reasonable doubt that Creature is town and Creature is convinced beyond reasonable doubt that Ico is town, my input really isn't needed.

[Godmid]

Err no

[Godmid]

My understanding is that the cop checked Egix N1 and Titus N2 and got red checks on both of them.

[Godmid]

Anyway, a deadline extension is going to be needed, especially since the plot has just thickened.

[Godmid]

Can someone walk me through how it makes sense for Shoshin's cop results to be anything other then what she claimed in her initial reveal in 2710? 2971 was clearly not serious.

[Godmid]

I think her results were Eyes town N1 and Titus scum N2.

Go on.

[Godmid]

So to go over why I thought RC was likely town, the core reason is that RC seemed to be heavily encouraging the cop onto either check himself or Egix D1 and I did not think that it was likely that if he was mafia, he would be actively attempting to guide the cop towards a red check, especially since the third mafia member was hard lurking and he was pushing for this before Baezu did her soft claim. A cop with a red check D2 with both doctors still alive would have likely lead to a very dicey situation.

I am not confident enough in my own reads that I would be unwilling to change my opinions based off of the opinions of other players since I am just a very late replacement who hasn't had nearly as much time to interact with the thread. However, Emperor hasn't given much indication of TRing you over Pops, and I'm not sure where Ico stands atm since his earlier heavy town lean seems to have been based off of misreading the situation.

It might also be helpful if you try to point to the exact reasons why you should be getting townread over RC/Pops, beyond arguing "Shoshin was townreading me, therefore, everyone should be townreading me".

[Godmid]

I want to hear from Creature, then I'll post my final thoughts, then I'm fine moving on with the game.

[Godmid]

Ugh, I'm starting to get cold feet a bit on Pops being more likely town then Creature.

[Godmid]

If Ico ends up getting replaced and scum isn't successfully lynched today, D6 is going to be an absolute shitshow.

[Godmid]

Yup, I see it. I don't have much time left to take a firm position, so I guess I'm going to have to spend more time on this tonight.

[Godmid]

@Pops:

So to go over why I thought RC was likely town, the core reason is that RC seemed to be heavily encouraging the cop onto either check himself or Egix D1 and I did not think that it was likely that if he was mafia, he would be actively attempting to guide the cop towards a red check, especially since the third mafia member was hard lurking and he was pushing for this before Baezu did her soft claim. A cop with a red check D2 with both doctors still alive would have likely lead to a very dicey situation.

You obviously have a pro-town bias towards RC's actions, but do you think this by itself is a solid line of reasoning towards a townread on your slot, or do you think that there are any potential pitfalls in it, even if the conclusion ends up being correct?

[Godmid]

Even though replacing into a game this late and with this many posts is a new experience for me, I don't think I've ever been quite this uncertain and right now I'm getting completely paralyzed by indecision. From my perspective, I would have thought scum!Creature makes more sense then scum!Pops. As I explained, the cop check positioning from RC isn't something that I thought made a lot of sense for mafia. Additionally, I found some of the posts by Egix directed towards Creature as strange and more like SvS then SvT (he was kind of shading the slot with some of his posts, but then made no serious effort to actually start a wagon).

Having said that, Shoshin clearly thought that Egix + RC was a completely viable scum team even after the cop claim positioning, so she was clearly not buying into the line of logic. She created a 4-player PoE earlier in the game which had both Egix and Titus in it and also contained RC. She consistently had RC down as a suspect alongside the revealed mafia and seemed to be townleaning Creature quite heavily pretty much the entire post-D1 game. As such, I'm becoming more and more hesitant to go against her reads seeing how accurate they have been so far.

In short, I am very conflicted right now and I'm sorry that I couldn't be more helpful. I will be on again at least a few hours prior to EoD.

[Godmid]

Yeah, as I said earlier, if today ends in a mislynch, tomorrow is going to be a bit of a nightmare.

[Godmid]

In case it ends up mattering, I'll take this opportunity to point out that if I was mafia, I would be in a prime position to take the win by lynching Creature here and then quoting him to try and force the lynch onto Pops tomorrow.

At this point, I can't afford to just keeping on flaking around since a no lynch is obviously far worse then a mislynch. Even though I don't see the exact reason why town!Creature is more likely town!Pops, Shoshin obviously did, even when she was working off of a lot of the same information. Her reads have been good enough so far this game, so I think that I do need to respect them instead of potentially throwing the game because I wasn't quite able to see what she saw.

VOTE: Pops

Sorry if this turns out to be incorrect Pops.

[Godmid]

Tbc as well, I'd started leaning towards this position earlier today after having more time to think about the game. I'm aware that the self-vote by Creature could be a gambit, but this is the direction that I was already starting to move towards before that happened.

[Godmid]

And given the unfortunate circumstances around Ico's low activity and uncertainty around whether Emperor will place his vote before EoD, all three of us have to be willing to self-hammer if it comes to it if we are town.

[Godmid]

The suspect pool is me, you and Creature. If Emperor doesn't show up, the only way that a lynch happens is if someone self-hammers. If a no lynch occurs, the suspect pool remains just as large and we only get one swing to find the scum instead of two. As such, lynching any of us today, even if it's a town, is better then not getting a lynch off at all.

[Godmid]

I'm just here to try and help this game reach it's conclusion while trying to play to my win con. I have no emotional investment, so I'm cool with abandoning the game if no one is enjoying themselves.

[Godmid]

VOTE: Game Abandon

[Godmid]

Nah, the game is dead as far as I'm concerned, I don't that there is ever a world where mod tries to get it going again after the last scum revealed.

[Godmid]

Oh sorry, I misunderstood your post.

[Godmid]

Oh no, this game wasn't a fun time, the only reason I am here was because I figured that someone had to help finish the game off and I didn't think anyone else would have a funner time. Sadly, if I had have just gone to the very end and sheeped Shoshin from the start, it would have saved quite a bit of time and headache.

And yes, I was pretty devastated that the town decided to lynch Dr. Worm.

[Godmid]

IN CASE EVERYBIDY DOESN"T KNOW.. I am NOT a REAL DOCTOR!!

but I am a REAL WORM!!

Post of the game.