Newbie 1934: Tundra (Game Over)

[teacher]

Well it looks like I can still RVS my scumday buddy, if just barely

VOTE: irrelephant

This is L-1. Do not vote without intent.

[teacher]

Pedit: or not L-1.

What’s there to react to? It’s poor play, especially in a Newb, but it wasn’t serious.

[teacher]

teacher I'm confused. Did you not see this page of the game when you voted for me? How did you think it was L-1?

It came up as a pedit for me - I started on 24, and I decided to click through it and post my intro anyways. Problem with a mobile is that I’m slow (also started drafting in a free and finished after school).

[teacher]

Teacher is skipping class today

You’ll find i ebb and flow. Some nights I crash out, some I spam post. I didn’t have much of a reaction last night. I skim during the day but don’t contribute because of the job. Def a lot has gone on today so I’ll provably motivate myself to get into the game tonight.

[teacher]

SE-ish aside to bob - avatars are a courtesy form of facial recognition for who is making a post. If you’re not graphically inclined, give me an image you think you’d like and I can get it the right size for you.

[teacher]

Flavors reading as himself to me. The game as a whole is feeling a bit lamisty and forced overreading. Eggs error feels honest, but he is being way more active early here than the game I modded (newb 1930).

[teacher]

@bob: mafia experience generally?

[teacher]

thenavneet is in L-2, right? Lets put him on L-1 so we get from RVS
VOTE: thenavneet

E: forgot to add the signature so you don't lynch me for fakehammer

I don’t get the e? Plus 61 is actually a double vote from 24 - what’s the point?

[teacher]

I don't like flavors behavior here either but again I haven't looked at how he previously plays

FWIW, Flavors play here is square down the middle of what I’d expect. Not saying I have a read, just saying it is exactly what I expected (other than the early vote which he acknowledged as a tip of the cap)

[teacher]

I love when I meld with you, even if I can never townblock you. Nice to play with you again.

I’m actually more on bob. Both of their first two posts seemed off.

[teacher]

Talk to me about cinnamon. I kinda liked [p]39[/p]

[teacher]

Sure.

VOTE: bob

[teacher]

It’s been a few months, but my history with the elephant is that I normally have the same reads. I am always concerned about him cause the man can powerscum with the best of them, but with his activity levels and general slot odds, that’s never a good day one lynch.

I grok what he is saying in Eggs. Lot of self-conscious posting and one slight scummy vote. Here again though, I’m willing to let the active driving of the game take it out of my D1 lynch pool.

I get why Menalque is pushing Eggs. It’s a legitimate case and the most questionable objective fact on this low info day. That said, I strongly differ on reading tone. Indeed, the tone comment is odd from someone who writes 20

That is my not lynching pool for now, and a response to bob’s 136

[teacher]

I forgot to ask how many games until I qualify as SE when I joined the newb queue

Alright I have some time now so I'm gonna try hard for a bit

This ended up not being true. Bah hate work some days. I'll tryhard later at night but I'll allow people to SR me based on these 2 posts

I need you to do an analysis on 3 players. I’ll even let you pick. But reads and reasons please.

[teacher]

^my b, I didn’t mean 48 to go in there but was going to answer it.

Newb: fewer than 5 completed newb games, not counting D2+ replacements.

SE: 4+ completed games, including one non-newb

[teacher]

@cinnamon: your ISO is oddly tilted towards the SEs, ignoring most other slots. I agree I’ve been kind of coasting, and likely will continue to so long as town stays active without a need for me to drive the game. Im a bit more of a reaction player who hasn’t gotten my hooks in yet. But I’d love to see you analyze some of your fellow newbs - menalque and navneet?

[teacher]

there are quite a few town reads on thenavneet right now.

This statement requires three plus to be valid. Kindly point them out.

[teacher]

Alright I have some time now so I'm gonna try hard for a bit

This ended up not being true. Bah hate work some days. I'll tryhard later at night but I'll allow people to SR me based on these 2 posts

This needs both a prod and a vote

VOTE: navneet

[teacher]

I don’t think navneet is scum based on how many votes he’s gotten tbh

Did the wagon feel real to you?

[teacher]

Prodding thenavneet.

sadly I think it is a replacement

[teacher]

And I missed this page. Well that’s interesting. Honestly I don’t blame you all and think the fluff comment is accurate. But I also don’t think you can identify anything scummy.

FWIW, saying no lynch is saying town lean. If you need that spelled out for you then you need help generally.

[teacher]

I will backtrack after day one as everyone should. Never be cemented in a position. Always reevaluate based on new info.

[teacher]

Fair fair. You have at least provided me the motivation to get my hooks into the game. I’ll give detailed reads tonight. I’ve never been mislynched outside of mylo and don’t plan on starting now.

[teacher]

I appreciate the accuracy elephant, and the 4X repeated question menalque. I want to sit back and sift, it promise some answers and takes tonight.

[teacher]

Dude, we’ve played together exactly once that I can recall. Have you read others of me? I’ve only rolled scum here once in a way that had a chance to make a difference to a game (twice as obv!scum replacements)

[teacher]

kindly prod bob

[teacher]

@everyone else who do you think make the most likely mafia pair at this point? why?

Associatives are weak sauce, especially pre-flips. In my roughly 20 games on site, I have of course tried to identify both scums day 1. As yet, I have failed every time.

[teacher]

Also, teacher, you still didn’t answer my question about your comment from 162. What’s weird about not finding tone very useful for finding scum in relation to my post 20?

Whats weird is that 20 was a pretty effortful fluff-post. If you dont find tone useful in a game, Im surprised youd put the effort in. It was playful and funny, but it also felt somewhat forced -- a heavy-handed humor if you will. Im surprised youd put in the effort if you didnt think it was meaningful, just to provide strangers a laugh. Just odd that you dont read tone, but you would play tone.

[teacher]

This is terrible logic. Active scum are almost certainly not going to be helping town unless they are very bad. On the contrary, good active scum are going to be able to get pushes for wagons on lurking town using exactly this logic right here. Yes, active town are more helpful than lurking town. But it's a ridiculous claim that having people actively trying to distort the game in their favour being more active (and therefore arguably more likely to be townread if activity is seen as town-indicative) is more beneficial to town compared to town not posting much.

I actually disagree with this. Most of my losses (other than to the elephant himself) have been to lurky scum. Active scum spew associatives and other information once one gets flipped. I would much rather have active scum than lurkey scum. The logic is not terrible, though it is arguable.

Aside @elephant, this post does have a townread (of cinnamon) buried in it.

[teacher]

snip for reference

1. Your use of "pair" made me think you meant associatives. Im cool with just asking for the 1-2 punch.

2. Tone =/ activity. You being on holiday may shift your activity. But if it shifts the personality.... (other than from demon rum)

[teacher]

Got game from RVS by making wagoon.

This is included in your second highest scum ranking. Why is exiting RVS/making wagons a bad thing?

[teacher]

I like the tone of his post, it reads towny to me. As for the vote, I don't have a read on it yet.

What do you (or anybody else) think?

What about Bob's post here read towny to you?

[teacher]

see my first post in my first game (1930 I think)

Why do you think youre being WAY more active and wall-y here than you were there?

[teacher]

why scum flavour leaf would strong town read two potential mislynches along with menalque. Seems very anti win condition assuming those reads don't flip too easily. Suggests to me that either his partner is in {me, menalque, cinnamon}

That seems to be most of the consensus townblock. Why do you think there are potential mislynches there? Why did you include yourself as a partner -- just the wording seems odd?

[teacher]

Dude, we’ve played together exactly once that I can recall. Have you read others of me? I’ve only rolled scum here once in a way that had a chance to make a difference to a game (twice as obv!scum replacements)

Oh wait. Yeah, I mixed you up with Loopdan. I do that a lot.

Thats an awesome compliment. I appreciate it.

[teacher]

Whole board reads:

• Nav: Awkward RVS and bizarrely focused on Eggs in ISO. Mechanical scumread from replacement as well.
  
• Menalque: Driving the crap out of the game. No way scum comes in with the 204 wall to restart the game after the holiday and mid-game day duldrums. Locktown.
  
• Voted: Early board reads list that has odd positioning on Menalque. Dont get why their only vote is navneet, three times over. While I agree with him on most game-theory discussion, dont see much if anything game advancing. Scumlean
  
• Cinnamon -- I Love the early game question to elephant re nav. While I have some questions about the reads (e.g., I dont see Flavor as trying to do anything, much less "look towny), I think that difference is more town-indicative of Cinammon trying to find something and analyze it. I really do wish they would pay less attention to SEs - I find it it odd they havent mentioned Eggs, other than to call him apathetic, which seems way off. Town-lean
  
• Uncle Bob -- Spicy entrance with odd words in multiple posts; cant name one player other than menalque (the board consensus) that he townreads. Limited thread presence even when active. Cant shake the feeling that this is the LHF mislynch. Null.
  
• Eggs -- Very difficult for me to read. Active and advancing the game, but had a weird self-consciousness about being the third on the wagon and sheeping. The readslist in 102 felt oddly townsided, and 105 right after felt defensive. Odd that theyd drop the sheep and push a wagon right as the Voted wagon got serious. I dont want to lynch this due to activity levels, and I think scum does not make the L-2 mistake. I will give it a null.
  
• Teacher -- dirtbag.
  
• Elephant -- not lynching D1, regardless of reads. And I read him as a strong townlean, despite the lint in my mouth from all the posts he quoted.
  
• Flavor -- townlean. This is how Ive seen them play. Im pretty sure he could do it as any style, but I can see some thought process back there too.

[teacher]

yea, considering that three of my townreads are on a scumread, I'll bring it to L-1.

VOTE: Voted

This is for real L-1. Do not vote without intent.

[teacher]

Thought you had me with Bob, who I just nulled.....

[teacher]

I don’t think navneet is scum based on how many votes he’s gotten tbh

Did the wagon feel real to you?

Idk what this question means. What makes a wagon real?

Intent to rope. The navneet Wagon, such as it was, was before post 100. I have yet to see an intentional D1 lynch that early. I could definitely see his partner being on that wagon for distance.

Im not saying your reaction is invalid. But when I went back to look at it, it didnt feel like it was driven by a case and a scumcatch, so much as information gathering without intent to rope.

[teacher]

I have absolutely no idea whether he is scum and I'm not sure I could ever figure it out. Is the best strategy to kill/clear him via PoE or just policy lynch?

If you’re not sure you can ever read them, then lynch it. That’s not the mistake you want to let linger til lylo.

[teacher]

had a weird self-consciousness about being the third on the wagon and sheeping. The readslist in 102 felt oddly townsided

Unstated L-1

Absolutely townsided, this is why I suggested an SE hiding in null and/or coaching.

No, third on the wagon “offer I can’t refuse” during RVS. I saw that as slightly scummy, vs the unannounced L-1 which I view as mildly towny.

[teacher]

That was fourth not third, that's the point I'm trying to make.

And I’m trying to make a different point.

[teacher]

VOTE: teacher

?????

[teacher]

That was a 180. What’s up?

I could see eggs as a partner very much. I’ve seen a lot of semi-busses and it explains to me why all of a sudden he stopped sheeping as it got serious.

[teacher]

Yeah weird that Eggs and Voted said nothing right??

No - that’s been my silent partner pick, as begin to hunt in my readslist. I see it a lot in eggs 102 and sudden switch away from sheeping and positioning around the wagon.

[teacher]

Because I still always do it. I will flag what was pinging me.

[teacher]

False. Elephant is off you.

[teacher]

Crap I crashed and did not mean to. Prodding til this afternoon - I have several thoughts.

[teacher]

Hi. I will do my best to town it up. I am sorry for disappearing. I have IRL issues right now with the end of the school year - I fed didn’t expect the long SE queue to fill up so fast and put me into a game right during finals. I am off eggs as voters partner but strongly urge people to ISO voted - elephant is right that there is not survivalism, but there is also not game advancing - or at least there wasn’t as of yesterday and in my brief mobile read through of the last six pages. I have been absentee, but when I’m present I am at least trying to provide genuine reads and content. I don’t see any active hunting from voted really at all.

Ragas ie enterence and rep into a mech-scum slot also makes that pretty high equity for day one.

I will actually desktop and update my analysis (as well as try to flesh out my old eggs-voted abalaysis for the sake of elephant) in about an hour. If anyone has questions for me, tonight’s the best time for a live jam.

[teacher]

I repped into 3q and modded 30 - I was expecting like one week without this timesuck, but it started right as 31 was wrapping.

[teacher]

I like the tone of his post, it reads towny to me. As for the vote, I don't have a read on it yet.

What do you (or anybody else) think?

What about Bob

is a great movie!

Ftfy

This is odd (I generally frown on editing quotes without calling out th edit) but it is definitely on tone with your personality.

[teacher]

Whole board reads:.[/list]

Teacher, you can do better than this...this seems really non commital

How do. I thought I was pretty clearly pushing Voted and openness to Nav/Rays and saying Menalque, Elephant, and Cinnamon were no-lynch.

What slot did you feel I didn’t commit on other than eggs and your own?

[teacher]

Hey everyone!

I'm replacing thenavneet. I'm working on getting caught up now.

Raya, do you know why I bolded it?

Yes, because you think it’s a newbscum tell

Poor reason for a wagon-

Thenavneet didn’t have any meaningful content and this wagon is shit

Why is/was the wagon shit? Who didn’t you like on t?

[teacher]

Eggs-Teacher both staying off of Raya actually lowers their scum equity.

Tbh, I still want voted but would have gotten on had I been at all present.

[teacher]

There’s a scum also pushing away from this push

The only two saving me are Menalque and elephant. If you can’t articulate a scumread on either me OR elephant, maybe that should make you reconsider?

[teacher]

.It seems like people are pushing them because they haven’t done anything and pushing it as scum AI. I’m seeing it as NAI. It’s neutral.

But I’m lock-scum?????

[teacher]

Anyone willing to go Irrelephant?

His play on me does not feel like a white knight. I was open early in the game, but see him as bleeding town for the past few days. No.

[teacher]

@539

Nah mate. You’re off on at least me. Like your worldview makes sense (I had been suspecting an SE scum because of the newb strength), but I don’t get why elephant would push so hard against a town!me lynch. Likewise, I don’t see why scum!you pushes me so hard today rather than lay seeds that would definitely bear fruit in later days.

[teacher]

Well that was an awkward pedit considering I was indeed awarding you town points. But so be it. Talk to me about why scum!elephant would be playing this way, assuming town!me.

[teacher]

.It seems like people are pushing them because they haven’t done anything and pushing it as scum AI. I’m seeing it as NAI. It’s neutral.

But I’m lock-scum?????

No. If you’re town, Irrelephant’s lock scum.

Basically this. Why? I don’t see scum motivation for countering your push on me, when elephant knows I can play well, and could actually dig in at any time.

[teacher]

As the secondary wagon today, and a source of justifiable scumreads, it would be shocking if I was the NK. And any decent NK analysis would take that into account in a later 1v1.

[teacher]

despite the lint in my mouth from all the posts he quoted.

I saw the early counter push as a pocket, but then he flipped on me - partially to put voted and has since repeat acknowledged my “underwhelming” performance. The man is smooth, but this doesn’t feel like a pocket to me so much as a genuine effort to solve. He has done repeated testing of the waters throughout the thread - including the selfvote. I see a lot more effort to hunt from him than I have seen in his scumgames - both played with him and meta’ed.

[teacher]

It’s a good night kill with solid reasoning that wouldn’t incriminate Irrelephant by a player that isn’t me.

The isn’t me part is the most relevant, because he isn’t trying to get me to town read him. He’s trying to get other people to not take stock into what i say.

Disagree. He is actively trying to get you to explain what your saying, so it isn’t just a vets take, but the logic is also explained so it can be weighed.

[teacher]

Ehh. Imma continue my spot read through on mobile. We just are coming from different priors I feel. I don’t see it how you do.

[teacher]

You were looking for a reaction from me?

Meh. Couldn't care less really, fake vote. Teacher isn't getting lynched today unless he posts a Mafia thread thread post in this thread by mistake.

No idea what you're trying to achieve but I'd assumed it wouldn't be helped by me sticking my oar in.

You moved off me after this, but of everything I wanted to say Friday, this post was the most jarring. You were voting me and pushing me. Why the shift?

[teacher]

I mean, if you try to convince me that irrelephant is town, then I’m just gonna see you as the scum, and vice versa.

I know I’m town, and scum doesn’t not let me push through a mislynch on one of you.

Scum is literally shooting themselves in the arm by not going along with me or allowing a gamestate where I can push through one of you.

That means there is scum within you 2.

This is an interesting take, but it seems to ignore the possibility of inactive scum, or that scum have boxed themselves into a semi pocket. It also seems to ignore the gamestate where I am the second wagon and most likely lynch if there is a claim. Too many assumptions for me to give it much weight, but it is a perspective that makes sense.

[teacher]

scum have boxed themselves into a semi pocket

To explain this more, most slots have undated at least opennes to me, and have Townes elephant enough to make a hop to him hard (especially since your push has been more on me than him until now).

[teacher]

Voted>ray>Baezu for me.

I’m less willing to put stock in a scum manipulated stagnant gamestate considering that we are on a later page for day 1 than I’ve see. In many newbies and most of the people you hav fingered have high votecounts.

These are the slots who have just not advanced the game. Voted got near lynch, which is when the real counterwagonib efforts began, without a good explanation as to what was wrong with the original wagon. Baezu is the wildcard where Bobs enterence was awkward, and surprisingly few commented or read into his afk exit.

I think these are the best choices for D-1. Given the deadline issues I will put raya back to L-1. I’d rather voted but I’m on a vanity wagon there and deadline is too close.

VOTE: raya

thi is again L-1

[teacher]

VOTE: unvote

[teacher]

Ayfkm?

[teacher]

I guess I’ll keep it at L-2, but

voted should certainly claim because my intent is there and clearly flavors is as well

, notmafia style

[teacher]

Freud rears his ugly head.

Raya (not Voted) should claim. I will repost my vote in appr 15 hours.

.

[teacher]

Oh for gods sake. I shouldn’t try to play on mobile. Both Menalque and elephant unvoted. It was only L-2.

VOTE: raya

This is L-2 not L-1.

[teacher]

@elephant can you do a whole board reads?

[teacher]

@539

Nah mate. You’re off on at least me. Like your worldview makes sense (I had been suspecting an SE scum because of the newb strength), but I don’t get why elephant would push so hard against a town!me lynch. Likewise, I don’t see why scum!you pushes me so hard today rather than lay seeds that would definitely bear fruit in later days.

This is kind of awkward to admit but I somehow missed 524 in my skim through the thread, as you can tell from the vote count issue. Also makes my discussion with you feel somewhat nonsensical as well. Sorry if you thought I wasn’t making sense.

[teacher]

@Flavor - I just ISO’d you and I don’t actually see where you explain the eggs townread so much as state it five times. Can you verbalize the why?

[teacher]

Nope, because I’m no longer there with Eggs. He’s right there above Cinnamon and lower than the others now

Ok.
So you are something like:
FL
Menalque
Baezu
Raya
Voted
Eggs
Cinnamon
Teacher
Elephant

If I’ve understood you right?

[teacher]

If that anything near accurate I’m going to need you to sell me on the middle. It’s there that I’m not seeing game advancing, as you can tell from my own PoE pool.

I have seen too many scum lunges day one to fully buy into the “they’ve been rung up so can’t be scum” card. Indeed, I thought there was a nice townblock forming here that has been shot a bit away with time induced paranoia - I think it would have been better if a lynch had gone through days ago.

[teacher]

I am actually starting to lean scum on Irrelephant more than Teacher atm,

What happened?

[teacher]

Cinnamon I think you’re a very capable mafia player. Do you agree?

FL I can think of multiple reasons why town!teacher would stay “in the neutral area”, and i feel like you probably can too. That’s why I’m not scumreading him atm.

Can you elaborate on feeling most newbies are town? It’s taken most of D1 for me to get strong townreads on, well, anyone tbh

I can’t actually. Not with Teacher.

Do me a favor and read mini normal 2042. I feel like you are meta scumreading me because I’m not being an obvtown driver. And that’s fair, I’m off meta. But that game is pretty close to this one in terms of real life conditions and, I think, results.

[teacher]

Confbias is a hell of a drug mate.

Eh, my reads are out there. If you have any questions on them, or anyone else comes to the thread, I’m happy to play.

[teacher]

I’m willing to accept I’m wrong if things happen that show me I am, but that’s not the case here.

You think elephant is scum.
You think scum would let you push one of us through.
Elephant gets on me.
I won’t get on elephant.
You have me more of a scumread than elephant.

One of these things is not like the other.

[teacher]

Happy anniversary bud. That’s awesome.

[teacher]

Also, since the lolhammer apparently comes natural to flavor, I will again pull my vote but promise its reposting in twelve hours so

raya should claim

VOTE: unvote

[teacher]

Howdy bae. Glad you had fun. Want to share why you thought the raya wagon was shite?

[teacher]

Whole board reads:.[/list]

Teacher, you can do better than this...this seems really non commital

How do. I thought I was pretty clearly pushing Voted and openness to Nav/Rays and saying Menalque, Elephant, and Cinnamon were no-lynch.

What slot did you feel I didn’t commit on other than eggs and your own?

Also this since it was a couple pages ago now.

[teacher]

Ah, gotcha.

You got 5 mins to talk about Bob? Is there anything in particular steering you towards mislynch or is it a tone thing/feeling? Any particular point stand out?

It was a tone/feeling. Like a true newb who didn’t feel the culture and had no guide. It was weak and has been weakened further. Def a slot in my Poe.

[teacher]

Baezu replaces Uncle Bob!

should the deadline have frozen from the start of the replacement search til the replacement, as it did with magnet/raya? Asking because it adds appr 36 hrs.

[teacher]

Also, bae, I need broader reads from you. You’ve drowned flavor, scummed me, and shaded eggs, voted, and cinnamon. That’s rather shadesided and definitely ignores three slots.

[teacher]

*towned flavor, though I suppose the typo works tonight

[teacher]

I don’t think navneet is scum based on how many votes he’s gotten tbh

Did the wagon feel real to you?

Are you asking me to answer this question or just bringing up that teacher said it

fwiw I answered this question before flavor reposted it.

[teacher]

Teacher > Irrelephant > Cinnamon is my preference order right now, and I likely won’t go anyone outside of those 3.

I’m not going irrelephant today.

I’m not going Raya today

FL if you think there’s scum on the Raya wagon why do you think it’s not Voted?

He’s a mislynch. Scum have been setting a gamestate up where he becomes a compromise wagon.

Intent to hammer in less than an hour

....?

[teacher]

Battery’s dying and this is scum.

VOTE: raya

L-1

[teacher]

He was making sense. But further to your question, you’ll note elephant and I have been voting together almost all day - elephant, bob, Voted, and now Raya.

[teacher]

Hostel world is good if somewhat expensive.

[teacher]

You should not claim. Raya should.

[teacher]

what happens w this deadline and raya’s imminent flake

[teacher]

VOTE: unvote
I’m still happy w this lynch. But a double replaced slot almost cannot be redeemed, leaving aside Nav and Rayas affirmative scumminess.

I’m eager to Baezus answers to my questions and Flavors to Menalques. Im feeling pretty good about my reads, but would also love to hear elephants reasoning whenever the new ball and chain grants him freedom.

[teacher]

Also, bae, I need broader reads from you. You’ve drowned flavor, scummed me, and shaded eggs, voted, and cinnamon. That’s rather shadesided and definitely ignores three slots.

Is this what you’re waiting for from me or were you referring to a different question? My folks are in town so the earliest I can get to this is tonight

And 592

[teacher]

I’ve stopped in to say I’m grateful for the time extension and
The main reason I’m townreading FL right now is that only RadiantCowbells is the only scumplayer who has ever made town!me feel like scumreading him would be a dangerous or scary proposition, which is how I’ve recently felt regarding FL. If he’s scum he’s done a great job of making me nervous to explore the idea out loud by setting up a situation where if I ever scumread him it’s proof that he’s right that im scum. This makes me townread him because that’s a very hard thing to do. and
In a world where Raya slot is town and FL is town I think there’s a 0% chance {teacher, cinnamon} has 0 scum. Put another way, I think there’s always 1-2 scum in {me, FL, teacher, cinnamon} if Raya flips town. Put yet another way I have ruled out all scumteams that consist of two of {Menalque, Baezu, Eggs, Voted}, based purely on BoP’ing myself + Flavor Leaf. and
I still think the double replace out slot is scum

Kay we’re going to dinner see y’all tomorrow

This honestly makes no sense as a reason to town someone.

[teacher]

Yea. I’m thinking it may be as simple as raya-bae and I’m inclined to lynch through the replacement. Those two slots - all four players - are the lowest in activity by a WIDE margin.

[teacher]

Actually, that’s kind of townie.

Just didn’t feel like answering Menalques question?

[teacher]

Ok that makes more sense.

[teacher]

Never lynch outside of me/Pine/Flavor Leaf/Cinnamon until scum flips

Why is Baezu not on this list?

[teacher]

Baezu my questions are still pending.

Flavor so is Menalques.

[teacher]

I dont like how under the radar Baezu's slot is being. By that I mean total lack of content, BUT ALSO lack of attention. I feel like I am the only calling out the fact that there are pending questions to her and that she hasnt posted really anything game advancing since Friday, and that Friday's was a rather scum-sided approach to the board.

I do think Pine's slot needs to be resolved before lylo, and is likely the best lynch for today. I am totally fine giving him the time to catch up and share thoughts, which I appreciate he is doing. If town, it helps to have a fully formed readset and information out. If scum, it also doesnt hurt to have that associatives out. I am also a fan of having claims out appr. 2 days before deadline so that there is time for an informed consnsus and reaction, rather than disjointed town rushing like chickens -- and this game does feel rather disjointed. Because of that and my view on the slot generally, I would encourage Pine to claim at somepoint tomorrow (real life, not D2).

Im around to jam for a bit if people want.

[teacher]

@Flavor, Id really love to talk with you if youre around.

[teacher]

Baezu replaces Uncle Bob!

should the deadline have frozen from the start of the replacement search til the replacement, as it did with magnet/raya? Asking because it adds appr 36 hrs.

No.

I also honestly find this interesting. Replacement for the Nav/Raya/Pine slot merits freezing deadline in midday. Replacement for the Bob/Baezu slot does not merit freezing deadline in mid-afternoon. Ive been pondering what to make of the difference, since it is a difference.

[teacher]

’m starting to lean only one of them have scum

I suppose Ill have to reiterate/expand Menalque's question:

Why did you have (elephant-me) as a team before? (provide reason)
How did that reason - whatever it was - interact with our essentially cojoined voting patterns at the time you made that read? (discuss impact of voting pattern and why that did/did not affect your read at time)
Why have you now "started to" move away from that?

[teacher]

Just because I scum read or town read someone now doesn’t mean I think they are scum or town.

How did this not get a reaction from anyone over the remaining 60 posts. Cinnamon, you go after Elephant for contradicting and reversing himself, but Flavor is explicitly saying his reads are manufactured. Of all of Flavors posts, I found this one the most discordant. It is a plant that will allow him to walk away from anything he has said so far by saying it was a reaction test.

[teacher]

VOTE: Irrelephant

I missed it. Why do you scumread me?

+town for those scoring at home. Scum!elephant gets too worried about the seeming defensiveness of the post and trusts another town will spot the contradiction.

[teacher]

[quote="In post 665, Pine"

]Hello folks,

I'm in for Raya at dear Ausuka's request.[/quote]
Second time for the slot.

[teacher]

Irrelephant's sudden move off of Cinnamon in 168, then hedge back towards him seems like overeager scum worrying that attacking obvious lynchbait will come back to bit him in the ass.

What made Cinnamon obvious lynchbait in this game, really at any point? Theyve never been a serious wagon, so that feels like a stretch.

Since when have you known Irrelephant to be overeager as scum? Again, seems like a read you would not have made with meta knowledge.

[teacher]

OK, so I've read back through. Here's what I will say:

First, I feel like the last 300 posts has just split up town. I attribute alot of that to Flavor's push on both Elephant and me -- it was gamechanging, a very different but logical take that forced many slots to react. It kicked Elephant out of what had been almost a mayor slot of leading the game, and forced many slots to reexamine their previous townleans. I also shared, at an emotional level, Elephant's reaction. It was a perplexing push to counter because it was so different than my take on the game (my readslist was essentially inverted to his) while also making sense on a surface level.

Second, I feel decently confident that Elephant is town. I have followed his play and his gambits all game, and think they are town advancing, More to the point, however, I have shared his mindset and vibes as well. We are approaching the game in a similar way, with similar reads and reactions. I know that reads does not equal alignment, but I do think reactions do.

Third, that does not mean I think Flavor is scum. I cant read him, and do not want him lynched at all. I can certainly see scum motivation for this play -- breaking up town, casting suspicion on SEs who are generally decent town players. But I can also see a hell of a lot of town motivation -- a logical read of the gamestate that generates quite a bit of informative reactions. I really do want Flavor to respond to Menalque's questions on his approach that I expanded upon in 722

Fourth, as the first point suggests, I think the main mission for the rest of the day has to be rebuilding a townblock. I would LOVE if people would get out of their scum!tunnels and started to try to actively find, bond, and form consensus with those who they think are town, and questioning others (even if not their desired lynch) for more information to analyze after flips. Here, for me, I town Menalque, Elephant, Eggs, and Cinnamon. I lean Voted that way, and am null on Flavor. I want Pine to eat rope, and lean scum on Baezu as well. I am still waiting for Baezu to answer 591. 592, and 595

Finally, I find the lack of attention given to Bob/Baezu's slot AND THE WAGONS perplexing. I just addressed Bob/Baezu. The wagon point is that almost all wagons this game have consisted of the same players:

• Navneet 65: Voted. Irrelephant11, Menalque, Eggs
  
• Voted 300: Irrelephant11, Menalque, Cinnamon, teacher [Eggs was here before me, but switched to me on what he said was a reaction test)
  
• Raya 407 and 604: Voted, Cinnamon, Irrelephant, and (Menalque/teacher, depending on when)
  
• Current raya (no VC): Irrelephant, Voted, Eggs, Cinnamon

I like lynching Raya, because I think a green flip clears Voted pretty hardcore given that the same wagon was on him, and definitely confirms scum in [Cinnamon/Elephant/me]. That is incredibly helpful to me because Im town on both of them right now, and would be forced to reexamine. It would also vault Flavor way up in my reads, both for pushing so hard and also for his theory being right. On the other hand, a red flip I think essentially clears all of Voted, Cinnamon, Irrelephant, and me, creating an incredibly strong townblock to win the game.

[teacher]

teacher, in the event that the Pine slot is town who do you think is the most scummy?

Was writing the long post, but I think that answered this. A green flip basically puts me on Elephant/you, since I'll lose the game to Menalque.

[teacher]

Red flip = speedlynch Flavor.

Greenflip = carefully reexamine board positioning on both elephant and cinnamon. Dont have inclinations between them, and not going to case til I get the info.

[teacher]

Intent -appr 24 hours

Pine, I appreciate the sub in and the read through effort. You cant be allowed to make it to D3, and I think you are the best lynch for the day for the reasons given. If Im off on you, Id love if youd continue the readthrough. But as I said on the last page, I think you should claim at some point tomorrow, and Im now making that point hard with the intent.

Pedit: It was not intentional, in the sense that I did not notice it. It is a genuine reaction to the wagon information, however, so Voted can join Menalque in my will lose at Lylo if scum pile.

[teacher]

Playing out complex hypotheticals on Voted per 735:

IF Raya green, and IF Elephant is the red between Cinnamon and Elephant, then there is a slight chance Voted isnt clear because Elephant was bussing and the first one off. But thats two conditionals which I consider pretty unlikely atm.

[teacher]

Im getting kinda conf-biased into a Flavor-Raya team. 59 and 71 start to look interesting as heck given the game developments, as do all of this repetition:

Raya “could” flip scum, but I think it’s very opportunistic, and even if Raya is scum here, the partner is bussing.

here is the chance that Raya is scum and I’m correct on the path I’m pushing as well,

Even if one of them are scum, they’re probably scum with Raya

As I said before, Im not interested in Flavor TODAY -- he is providing novel takes and forcing rethinking. Indeed, I think a green flip really vaults him into my heavy towns. But there are definitely associatives for a redflip tomorrow.

[teacher]

Playing out complex hypotheticals on Voted per 735:

IF Raya green, and IF Elephant is the red between Cinnamon and Elephant, then there is a slight chance Voted isnt clear because Elephant was bussing and the first one off. But thats two conditionals which I consider pretty unlikely atm.

I also see this as a possibility, but again yeah that would be based off of unlikely circumstances. The fact that you also saw this world makes me feel like you're less scummy than I previously thought.

Just FYI, even if the first two conditions are indeed met, I still would likely lean voted town based on wagon analysis. In this circumstance, it is their repeat presence on wagons with Elephant throughout the day. I have found it to be more likely 1-on, 1-off. That Voted has so often voted with Elephant (and you, and me) makes him a less likely pairing for any of us. Not conclusive, but further thinking on it and why I thought a green flip would still be a likely clear.

[teacher]

Flavor, why were were you willing to hammer Raya (see 598)? Also, can you further explain your all-SE team theory in light of the wagon analysis (see 722)?

[teacher]

You cant defend your earlier all-se theory in light of the voting pattern, so you ignore the question and switch to a one-SE theory.

But you never scumcased me/us. You just said it was PoE and inability to get a wagon going. The problem is that you did get a wagon going. On me. It was (you, Baezu, eggs, irrelephant, Cinnamon indicating a willingness to compromise).

The game state is drastically different than it was when you began this read. Step into the thunderdome -- explain what I have done that is scummy, and who Im partnered with. So far youve suggested elephant, but retreated, and cinnamon (to whom the same cojoint VCA question that youve refused to answer would apply).

Case me. Im here for it. Then answer 598, which you ignored again.

[teacher]

Because you pushed the theory hard, and that counter-evidence was available to you at the time, so knowing why you discounted it reveals your thought process.

Again, answer 598.

Again, case me, or stop complaining about the lack of 1v1

Again, tell me who you think my partner is (because all of the candidates youve mentioned have the same voting issue, so you need to answer that question you keep avoiding regardless).

PEDIT: Or you wanted some credit for the hammer on what was an inevitable lynch. But I'll give you credit for answwering that.

[teacher]

Seriously, I cant wait to hear about why I am a better D1 lynch that Raya. If the answer is that Raya has been run up multiple times by many slots, and so cant be scum, you would still need to explain away Baezu. (obviously you also havent been willing to join this wagon, but Im assuming town!you for purposes of casing me).

Baezu has been unwilling to touch this wagon, and indeed joined the then-available counterwagon and flaked for days.

How is that more scummy than a slot you cant case other than by gamestate (which has changed).... Im waiting.

[teacher]

Well, I no longer think that it’s an all SE team, so why should I defend it?

Because you pushed the theory hard, and that counter-evidence was available to you at the time, so knowing why you discounted it reveals your thought process.

Also because the question was asked in real time, and you ignored it multiple times. 605, 616, 626, 718. Simply ignoring bad logic and then saying its not relevant because youve changed your mind doesn’t help your credibility.

And its not the first time you’ve done this. In 572 you refused to justify a townread of Eggs because you were “no longer there.” But you were there as of 463 and thought Eggs couldn’t be a partner with me (your strongest scumread) as of 503.

Bottom line, claiming fluidity and changing reads is fair, but you should be able to defend thoughts you voice even if they have been overtaken by events.

[teacher]

OK, so I've read back through. Here's what I will say:

First, I feel like the last 300 posts has just split up town. I attribute alot of that to Flavor's push on both Elephant and me -- it was gamechanging, a very different but logical take that forced many slots to react. It kicked Elephant out of what had been almost a mayor slot of leading the game, and forced many slots to reexamine their previous townleans. I also shared, at an emotional level, Elephant's reaction. It was a perplexing push to counter because it was so different than my take on the game (my readslist was essentially inverted to his) while also making sense on a surface level.

Second, I feel decently confident that Elephant is town. I have followed his play and his gambits all game, and think they are town advancing, More to the point, however, I have shared his mindset and vibes as well. We are approaching the game in a similar way, with similar reads and reactions. I know that reads does not equal alignment, but I do think reactions do.

Third, that does not mean I think Flavor is scum. I cant read him, and do not want him lynched at all. I can certainly see scum motivation for this play -- breaking up town, casting suspicion on SEs who are generally decent town players. But I can also see a hell of a lot of town motivation -- a logical read of the gamestate that generates quite a bit of informative reactions. I really do want Flavor to respond to Menalque's questions on his approach that I expanded upon in 722

Fourth, as the first point suggests, I think the main mission for the rest of the day has to be rebuilding a townblock. I would LOVE if people would get out of their scum!tunnels and started to try to actively find, bond, and form consensus with those who they think are town, and questioning others (even if not their desired lynch) for more information to analyze after flips. Here, for me, I town Menalque, Elephant, Eggs, and Cinnamon. I lean Voted that way, and am null on Flavor. I want Pine to eat rope, and lean scum on Baezu as well. I am still waiting for Baezu to answer 591. 592, and 595

Finally, I find the lack of attention given to Bob/Baezu's slot AND THE WAGONS perplexing. I just addressed Bob/Baezu. The wagon point is that almost all wagons this game have consisted of the same players:

• Navneet 65: Voted. Irrelephant11, Menalque, Eggs
  
• Voted 300: Irrelephant11, Menalque, Cinnamon, teacher [Eggs was here before me, but switched to me on what he said was a reaction test)
  
• Raya 407 and 604: Voted, Cinnamon, Irrelephant, and (Menalque/teacher, depending on when)
  
• Current raya (no VC): Irrelephant, Voted, Eggs, Cinnamon

I like lynching Raya, because I think a green flip clears Voted pretty hardcore given that the same wagon was on him, and definitely confirms scum in [Cinnamon/Elephant/me]. That is incredibly helpful to me because Im town on both of them right now, and would be forced to reexamine. It would also vault Flavor way up in my reads, both for pushing so hard and also for his theory being right. On the other hand, a red flip I think essentially clears all of Voted, Cinnamon, Irrelephant, and me, creating an incredibly strong townblock to win the game.

Intent -appr 24 hours

Pine, I appreciate the sub in and the read through effort. You cant be allowed to make it to D3, and I think you are the best lynch for the day for the reasons given. If Im off on you, Id love if youd continue the readthrough. But as I said on the last page, I think you should claim at some point tomorrow, and Im now making that point hard with the intent.

Pedit: It was not intentional, in the sense that I did not notice it. It is a genuine reaction to the wagon information, however, so Voted can join Menalque in my will lose at Lylo if scum pile.

Im signing off but I dont want these two to be buried in catchup.

Pine there is intent

, Baezu please answer questions, and I welcome any other reactions to the wall.

[teacher]

As someone who played in at least a quarter of the games involved, 758 seems off. Like I don’t doubt that it’s an accurate report of statistics on a cold read, but I think it probably suffers from a codin/category error. I assume it counts replacements like (Brass->flavor) in this game, since some mods (Incl. Plot, who nodded prob 35%+) list anyone who got a role pm in their first post, even if they never logged in/confirmed/responded/posted in thread.

I have not done a sit down study, but my lived experience tells me that players who post in thread, then replaceout when getting scumread, are more likely scum. It’s not just the flaking but the flaking when already under pressure.

Also, while I will definitely compromise on Baezu, it seems like that’s a contradiction with the reason to get of Pine/raya/Nav - the case on them is flaky non game advancing - is the same as what you’re getting off, other than the board has been ignoring it.

[teacher]

To fix the error, or at least modulate it, only count replacement of slots that posted in the game. I would do it but in class all day. I do really appreciate the counting effort.

I hear where your coming from on Bae and being allowed to stay under the line. I’m willing to compromise there I think Pine is more game advancing since more slots have defined associatives. But that’s a difference not a disagreement if that makes sense.

Nav was not consensus town, as you can tell from the wagon, but I think that’s also pretty irrelevant.

[teacher]

To fix the error, or at least modulate it, only count replacement of slots that posted in the game

For example, this gets rid of 4 town replacements in Newb 1909 alone, where 2 slots were twice filled with people who joined the queue then forgot the site exists. Since replacements like those are both common (yet to play a game without one) and 78% likely to be town, including them skews your data to make replacement seem less scummy than it is.

[teacher]

I’m not encouraging cherry picking. I’m encouraging coding the same dataset similarly - don’t count replacements who never post. Count replacements that do.

Why I’m actually talking about it so much is that I found eggs data shocking. I do mechanically scumread flakes. I have encouraged others to do so. I do it always, across several games. If Eggs data is sound, I’m wrong and need to change my approach. I want to know that - what data says. Until I trust the data, though, I’m standing by my experience (however anecdotal it may be).

Here your slot has two mechanical scumreads for me - the replacement, AND twice greeting the thread. That, plus the rayas awkward actual post, plus the difficulty in getting a lurker wagon across the line makes me feel pretty good about a redflip.

[teacher]

I will code tonight after school because this would really change my approach to the game.

I also didn’t like Rayas substantive post.

[teacher]

But also counting on a flat e.g. 30% on both town and scum for genuine life/forget site replace-outs won't affect the numbers.

This is error. Flat discount doesn’t make sense when 78% of slots are town. Town replaceouts should be discounted more heavily than scum. But like I said I will do the actual coding and share dataset and results tonight.

[teacher]

Intent -14 hours again

.
Pine should claim.

[teacher]

So newbs that have posted in thread have been replaced a total of 43 times across 1900-1930 (note that I am excluding 1923 from the data set spoilered below). Of these replacements, 25 have been town, 18 have been scum. So a posting!newb replacement is 58% likely to come from town, and 42% likely to come from scum. To me thats a fair reason for a mechanical scumread, but somewhat less weight should be given it than I previously had.

Spoiler: data

Limited to Newb slots that posted in the game and then were replaced. No investigation was done to check whether replacement was due to flake or request, nor was data controlled for time of flake - D1, D2, etc.

1900 - one posting newb replacement : town
1901 - two posting newb replacements: scum
1902 - five, three scum two town (double scum)
1903 - one - scum
1904 - one - town
1905 - two - towns
1906 - none
1907 - one town
1908 - two towns
1909 - none
1910 - three - two town (double) one scum
1911 - two town
1912 - two one town one scum
1913 – two one town one scum
1914 – none
1915 – none
1916 – two – one town one scum
1917 – one town
1918 – none
1919 – one – one town
1920 – one - town
1921 – one - scum
1922 – one - town
1923 – NOT COUNTING GAME – NO POSTING REPLACEMENTS PRIOR TO SCUM CLAIM AND RULES BREAK
1924 – one town (D2)
1925 – Three, all scum, one double
1926 – Two one town one scum
1927 – One town
1928 – Four – three scum one town (scum double)
1929 – none
1930 – one town

[teacher]

Yea. Another way to cut the data is, as you note, by slots. Over 1900-1930 (again excluding 1923), there were 176 newbie slots. 135 town and 41 scum.

Of these slots, 24 town!posting!newb slots needed replacement. (twenty five players, but 24 slots). 24 slots divided by 135 opportunities = 18% chance.

16 Scum!posting!newb slots needed replacement (18 players, 16 slots). 16 slots divided by 41 opportunities = 39% chance.

Yea, Im continuing to use this as a scumtell.

@Pine, the data is now out and publicly available. You want to justify saying a flake is NAI now?

[teacher]

But thats just it. Conventional is wisdom is posting flake is scummy. Elephant said it this game. Ive said it most games. Ive been in games when Skitter and Loop have said it. I havent seen a flake=NAI argument before, and certainly dont view it as the prevailing wisdom.

Double the chance is significant, in a statistics sense.

On the role PM fair enough. Youve got intent on you and havent given a claim. Is there a reason for that?

[teacher]

Thank you for responding. No, I wouldnt have lynched you for a PR claim, that sorts itself.

Yes, I do think youre the optimal lynch as a VT claim versus running someone else up, because I think you provide really helpful associative data to guide various night actions and it keeps another potential PR concealed. But I will let the board and wagon react.

Now that we have a claim I think there is time to let it play out (and let town!you catchup and provide a will if the consensus is to carry through), so Im going to pull my intent back to a couple hours before deadline rather than 24.

[teacher]

Menalque, you mind if I butt in?

[teacher]

Voted is that actual data? What source? Im missing something.

@menalque, re Pine: He doesnt think he can get me through -- the sides are fairly well defined, and its unlikely Eggs/Voted/Elephant/Cinnamon will suddenly switch from him to me given their recent comments and gamestate. Hes proposing a compromise lynch many slots have indicated openness to. I dont think its necessarily contradictory. That said, I still think he's the best lynch.

PEDIT: Only lean because I wrote that based on my reads before writing up the wagon analysis. I dont see much active hunting from you, but based on wagonomics (for reasons already explained), I would now town you over (Elephant/Cinnamon), whom I town but will revisit if there is a green flip.

[teacher]

I’ll flip after cinnamon has a chance to confirm they are good, and pine leaves whatever will he wants.

[teacher]

Ah didn’t see this page. But the silencing point is why I’m waiting.

[teacher]

Will do after 8. W kids

[teacher]

Pine you around?

Baezu, care to answer 591, 592, or 595 at any point?

[teacher]

Howdy bae. Glad you had fun. Want to share why you thought the raya wagon was shite?

Do you not feel like I addressed this in my recent post? I didn’t think that slot was scummy...why did you think that slot was scummy?

OK, so the issue was not the "wagon", it was the "target". I was asking you to localize why you thought the wagon was probmlematic, because I misunderstood your thrust.

Why did you not scum/null the nav slot? what about it was town?

Bringing in your point about the newb-tell of greeting the thread, why do you find it scummy to use it? It is, after all, statistically validated.

[teacher]

Whole board reads:

• Nav: Awkward RVS and bizarrely focused on Eggs in ISO. Mechanical scumread from replacement as well.
  
• Menalque: Driving the crap out of the game. No way scum comes in with the 204 wall to restart the game after the holiday and mid-game day duldrums. Locktown.
  
• Voted: Early board reads list that has odd positioning on Menalque. Dont get why their only vote is navneet, three times over. While I agree with him on most game-theory discussion, dont see much if anything game advancing. Scumlean
  
• Cinnamon -- I Love the early game question to elephant re nav. While I have some questions about the reads (e.g., I dont see Flavor as trying to do anything, much less "look towny), I think that difference is more town-indicative of Cinammon trying to find something and analyze it. I really do wish they would pay less attention to SEs - I find it it odd they havent mentioned Eggs, other than to call him apathetic, which seems way off. Town-lean
  
• Uncle Bob -- Spicy entrance with odd words in multiple posts; cant name one player other than menalque (the board consensus) that he townreads. Limited thread presence even when active. Cant shake the feeling that this is the LHF mislynch. Null.
  
• Eggs -- Very difficult for me to read. Active and advancing the game, but had a weird self-consciousness about being the third on the wagon and sheeping. The readslist in 102 felt oddly townsided, and 105 right after felt defensive. Odd that theyd drop the sheep and push a wagon right as the Voted wagon got serious. I dont want to lynch this due to activity levels, and I think scum does not make the L-2 mistake. I will give it a null.
  
• Teacher -- dirtbag.
  
• Elephant -- not lynching D1, regardless of reads. And I read him as a strong townlean, despite the lint in my mouth from all the posts he quoted.
  
• Flavor -- townlean. This is how Ive seen them play. Im pretty sure he could do it as any style, but I can see some thought process back there too.

I feel like you were non-commital on nav, cinnamon, my slot, eggs, elephant and FL

How on gods green earth are Nav ("mechanical scumread") and Elephant ("strong townlean") noncommittal? I will grant you I was noncommittal on the two nullreads.

[teacher]

@Pine, Im hammering you shortly. I said Id be back on to engage with you, but you arent here.

Yes I suspect Baezu, for one of the reasons I suspect you -- lurking newb flake. But I suspect you for more than that: the greeting-tell, Navneet's ignoring the RVS shenanigans, Raya's enterance readslist and the pockets that came with it. No, none of this really has to do with your play. The slot was not redeemable, and cannot be allowed to continue in the game. Further, I think your lynch has two additional benefits: the better associational data to guide PRs tonight and reset reads if need be tomorrow, and the fact that you are already claimed. If youre scum, as Ive said, I got a whole long list of clears. If your town, it breaks my current townblock and makes me takes Flavor's case seriously rather than an attempt to redirect/counterwagon.

At the start you said you were going to do a read through and stream of consciousness. If you have said all you are going to say, I will hammer. The hammer will fall tomorrow afternoon NY time regardless, to leave you time to compose a will if you want.

[teacher]

As a teacher you should know that statistics and probability don’t necessarily translate into reality

Best Mafia strategy advice I have ever read: [url=https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... babilities[/url]

Yes, it is certainly possible a slot that has greeted the thread twice, and flaked twice is town. But it is far more likely to be scum. Play the probable rather than the possible.

[teacher]

As a teacher you should know that statistics and probability don’t necessarily translate into reality

Best Mafia strategy advice I have ever read: Link

Yes, it is certainly possible a slot that has greeted the thread twice, and flaked twice is town. But it is far more likely to be scum. Play the probable rather than the possible.

EBWOP

[teacher]

I am going to essentially treat this as twilight, and make two posts. This one provides (and somewhat repeats) my wagon analysis.

If Pine flips Red, I think his partner is:
Flavor 80% of the time
Baezu 20% of the time

If Pine flips green, I think the likely teams are:
(elephant-cinnamon)-Baezu 77.5%
Elephant-Flavor 10%
Elephant-voted 7.5%
Cinnamon - flavor/Voted 5%

Obviously, from the board's perspective, the green flip teams have to include me. I think Elephant has slightly higher scum-equity. Elephant-flavor is a tinfoil, but it is higher probablity than two on-wagon just because that is a long-seated belief of mine that scum are normally one-on, one-off wagon. When there are two on wagon, scum is generally in the 4th or 5th slot. It is incredibly rare for scum to have co-joint voting patterns throughout the day, as Elephant-Voted-Cinnamon have done. I rank Cinnamon-flavor significantly lower than elephant-flavor because the degree of misdirection in the day if Flavor is involved as scum and Pine town is amazingly high, making me suspect someone I know to be capable of powerscumming more than a newb, however good they may be in marathons.

Menalque and Eggs are just plain town. That conclusion leads into my next post...

[teacher]

I feel like this conversation isn’t helping scum hunt...if you’re town, please contribute to town

This has been part of my problem with your game this game- you haven’t been really towny

Hahahaha. That really is rich coming from you.

[teacher]

The promised next post that I am starting to include in all my newb games at or near twilight.

Since it is theoretically twilight, and this is a newb game, I'll offer these thoughts, courtesy of TW. my one difference with the advice is on Jailkeeper. If this flips green, JK should act like a doc. If red, act like a cop.

Subject: Newbie 1866 - Canine Mafia [GAME OVER]

In case day ends quickly some advice for TPRs (just general advice, Una/Pingu jump in if you disagree or have more to add)

Cop

-- DO NOT TARGET STRONG TOWN PLAYERS OR PEOPLE WHO SEEM TO "KNOW SOMETHING". they will be night killed and your results will be useless. IME cops are best suited targeting players who are kinda null reads, leaning one way or the other. if you can reach day 3 (let's say 3 town vs 2 scum) and out yourself along with your results, that's an instant town win! even in 4v1, you can push the decision down to a 50/50 lynch. If you do get a guilty it's generally advised to either 1) out yourself instantly, or 2) make it REALLY obvious who your guilty is so if you flip town can lynch them

Neopolitan

-- go for similar targets to docs. not super obvious townies, but also not people who are super shady. do not out your results right away. town power roles and scum power roles both return "not vanilla", so if you do out a NV result it can fuck the town. Try and put them in a scummier range, if anything. If you get a Vanilla result, try and townread them subtly but in a way that we'll notice if you die. If you survive until massclaim this almost nullifies scum fakeclaims.

Tracker

-- target the shady people cops need to avoid! if you track someone to a target and they're not dead there's a decent chance the person you tracked is a town power role. reassess this based on the setup once another power role has flipped / claimed etc. If you track someone to a player who dies that night, out your result immediately as on the balance of probabilities it was the night kill.

Jailkeeper

-- i hate this role you can be a roleblocker or a doctor. if you think you can guess who is most likely to be the scum killer tonight, target them--but this function is a lot stronger lategame IMO. for the time being, be a doctor. try and target players who you would kill if you were scum (priority 1: people who you think might be town power roles. priority 2: very towny players....IMO)

Doctor

-- put on your evil hat and think "who would I kill?", then target that person. As with JK priority#1 is town power roles who you think the scumteam will be on to (generally speaking, scum are better at spotting townies who are playing like power roles than town are. so if you have a suspicion, the scumteam likely do, too). Priority #2 is to target very towny players. FRIENDLY REMINDER if you target a player and they don't die, it is very likely they're town. so try and make it clear but not too clear with your reads d2 that you've "cop cleared" them.


The Wiki has shitloads more info but I'm lazy. Google "mafiascum wiki [role name]" and have a good read.

Good luck<3

just gonna drop this iconic copypasta from a game I played a thousand years ago here for any TPRs out there. obviously don't interact with this post unless there's something you agree with at a mechanical/theory level because acknowledging it may be considered a TPR tell

this came from a game where I was trying to subtly hint at who the jk should target btw. I've had some serious successes with people sheeping these tips hence I keep digging it up

in this game the dream cop target is lavender imo because she's kinda townish but hard to get a firm read on. outside of that {Ryno, whig/Urist} are good targets for now.

won't talk about doc/jk targets because manipulating nightkills rarely works out well

also just requoting this bad boy

and once more for good measure
glglgl

[teacher]

Still waiting for our 1v1 sweetie.

[teacher]

It is. See 752

[teacher]

did you get the colors right there boss? If so, Im intrigued and surprised.

[teacher]

But see Menalque (towny not swayed)

I see Flavor more as a save/break up terminal townblock. The fact that all the wagons have been the same is fatal if it’s red. But thanks for the peek inside. All that remains is a ticking time for Pine to do with what he will.

[teacher]

I think he’s interested but is in my wagon so clearly not swayed. Hope your enjoying the vacay.

[teacher]

My of-the-moment thought is a Pine red flip would make me want to lynch Baezu, and a Pine green flip would make me want to flip Flavor
If Pine flips green here though my jaw will drop

Oh, how funny that teacher said a Pine red flip makes him want me.

And irrelephant says a pine green flip makes him want me.

I thought you were off this. Now that you’re apparebtly back I. Will you answe 722

[teacher]

VOTE: pin

[teacher]

VOTE: pine

[teacher]

d a scumbuddy who refused not to bus.

if true this would be gamethrowing. Regardless of truth, because of that fact, it’s contrary to the rules.

[teacher]

I’m stunned......said nobody ever.

Im inclined to flavor

[teacher]

Check out flavors early claim. My gosh that screams scum to me.

VOTE: Flavor

[teacher]

For the record flavor you said that yesterday. Along with Pine green. One would think you’d reevaluate based on flips.

[teacher]

Im getting kinda conf-biased into a Flavor-Raya team. 59 and 71 start to look interesting as heck given the game developments, as do all of this repetition:

Raya “could” flip scum, but I think it’s very opportunistic, and even if Raya is scum here, the partner is bussing.

here is the chance that Raya is scum and I’m correct on the path I’m pushing as well,

Even if one of them are scum, they’re probably scum with Raya

As I said before, Im not interested in Flavor TODAY -- he is providing novel takes and forcing rethinking. Indeed, I think a green flip really vaults him into my heavy towns. But there are definitely associatives for a redflip tomorrow.

Can you kindly at long last actually case me.

[teacher]

Because I see you trying to split town and also planting survivor seeds all late day yesterday.

[teacher]

Teacher backtracked off after I claimed my intent to hammer, which was scummy.

Because you allowed zero time for claim and were strongly contradicting your own position. Also no time for twilight posts. A 3am hammer is crap.

[teacher]

Also in no world does massclaim make sense here. If the pr has two clears tomorrow, the game is auto. Or should only intervene if we are lynching a clear.

[teacher]

Can you quote your case then please?

[teacher]

JK can be toleblocked and not know it fwiw.

[teacher]

Here should be the plan.

Everyone should claim all results UNLESS they are a doctor.

Any doctor out there should claim VT in that case.

Rolefishing.

We are 6:1. Massclaim should wait til tomorrow.

[teacher]

No mafia roleblocker can block and kill in the same night.

[teacher]

Here should be the plan.

Everyone should claim all results UNLESS they are a doctor.

Any doctor out there should claim VT in that case.

Rolefishing.

We are 6:1. Massclaim should wait til tomorrow.

Lol

Elephant kindly weigh in here to show the proper strat. It’s not massclaim.

[teacher]

Again, tracker or neapolitan with VT should claim otherwise it would be more wise to wait.

No even then it’s better to wait for two clears and auto. There is no need for claims today unless we are lynching a clear.

[teacher]

Everyone always says stuff like that, but that’s a flaw in mechanical based players. That just risks not getting any results because of potential PR’s dying in the night which is how scum skate by and coast.

I always think town shouldn’t be greedy and just give their results in these positions, because you get to see how scum react afterwards, and townies become super obvious in newbie setups.

You’ve heard of crumbs right?

[teacher]

Teacher is clearly scum here trying to avoid having people claim anything.

We have a stray disagreement. Why I want Elephant to weigh in, since I know I’m playing the statistically better play and he can validate it.

Pedit: if you master crumbs, then there is little risk of losing pr results.

Off til tonight.

[teacher]

But you won’t be around.

I had a scum death D1 result in a scum win because I was the n1k and couldn’t push the mech scum triple replaceoutslot

[teacher]

I think if the flip is red then FL becomes the scummiest player for having put so much effort into creating an alternative wagon.

Reason no. 403 you have to be the lynch today.

[teacher]

teacher if you could choose the three players to be lynched who would they be?

Flavor
Baezu
I don’t care game is over so ok me.

[teacher]

Actually I think There’s a decent argument Baezu slot is mechtown.

Flavor and then I need a desktop and thinking. But I think the game ends with flavor.

[teacher]

Also flavor - can you point me to ANY game where both day 1 wagons were on scum? Because being the alt wagon yesterday should have cleared me I would think (not to mention pushing the heck out of it).

[teacher]

I’m 50/50 on Baezu having inno’d me.

What do you do in that scenario?

Laugh. Then go back to the drawing board and see who got trapped onto a bus.

[teacher]

Can you quote your case then please?

[teacher]

You actually think scum puts their partner on L-1 while saying it’s L-2.

[teacher]

Wait no. It's not even l-2.

I think it was 2, then cinnamon dropped off, then voted went on. So that makes me the third vote? Please double check my numbers before voting.

VOTE: pine

Was on before fourth.

[teacher]

Also in no world does massclaim make sense here. If

the

pr has two clears tomorrow, the game is auto. Or should only intervene if we are lynching a clear.

Is this a scum slip?

How do you know there’s only one PR?

I don’t. The Pr with two innos makes it auto. If we have two investigatives or semi investigatives with two different clears it’s auto now. But all we need is one to survive with two. That’s my point.

[teacher]

Teacher just is being surface level town probably.

Gfy.

[teacher]

Teacher just is being surface level town probably.

Gfy.

It’s not good, it’s go; and it’s not for, .....

[teacher]

Voted, where are you?

On vla til the 10th.

[teacher]

Flavor you wanna talk some complicated hypos?

[teacher]

Yea I wanted you to just assume me bae eggs town but that covers it. I take it you have cinnamon over elephant?

[teacher]

I’m pretty sure Baezu is mechtown. Flavor is the lynch. They pushed the counterwagon yesterday and tried to break apart town, even with the conditional “of scum, then bus” logic as a survivor play. I am not compromising today.

[teacher]

Why would town selfhammer.

[teacher]

I’m vt. I sifted investigative on Baezu yesterday to try to attract the nk. It’s auto at this point. Baezu is the scum.

[teacher]

VOTE: Baezu

[teacher]

If this isn't scum, the lynch tomorrow is always teacher

Yes! I checked both, Eggs and Cimnamon - town.

That’s why it’s auto. I wouldn’t slow play this.

[teacher]

Cinnamon - I thought you played quite a strong game. One issue with how you play, that can work to your advantage but will get you suspected, is that you are guarded. I see you thinking through posts. Editing them. Worried about how they might be perceived Not just typing and sending. I think you could towntell more just by flowing.

The second piece of advice is to be more confident about your own reads. I felt like you got pushed by others views. Take others views into account, sure. But use them to adjust your confidence levels in your own views, rather than to chance what yours are.

This was truly a fun civil game. Thank you all.

@Pine, now that its not game-relevant, do you really think posting-flakes are the same as forgot-about-site flakes?

[teacher]

Also, since it should be said in a newb, NEVER hammer yourself as town.

Yes, Flavor, I did think you were scummiest and the best lynch. But whatever "surface-level" you think Im playing on, youll note I pushed scum while you pushed town.