Newbie 1943: Crosswords (Game Over)

[Sera Masumi]

Hi, I'm your replace-in person for connor. Since it was asked at the beginning of the game, I have roughly ~10-15 games at another site. If you want to take a look I'm happy to give you the info, but it's played pretty differently over there (much faster days for one thing) so I'm uncertain it will necessarily give you that much valuable intel.

Now before anything else I want to comment on something I'm deeply uncomfortable with.

well good hopefully we can get some convors going and make some reads don't get me wrong i like you all but maybe the reason we haven't had no leads is because the scum replaced out. what do you think? @everyone .

I think that could be true. Like we have some SRs/SLs flying round between Temporal, Red, and Robb, but I think they're all

probably

town.
You mean connor/Phone (by people who have replaced out) right?

This is a Bad Take, OPs. If you have townreads on everybody except the paths of absolute least resistance, that indicates to me that you probably have too many townreads, not that scum happen to be the easiest targets in the game and just happily going along with that. Like, I have no idea how to read phone here, and there are questions I'd like to ask but phone replaced out, so I'll never be able to ask them. Hopefully the replacement slot will give more information. Connor is pretty clearly somebody that just started to play the game and then replaced out after deciding forum mafia was not for him or something; he made one post and then never returns. Both these slots are null as hell in my opinion, and this method of shutting down thought and just going for the easiest route possible feels like an easy way to setup a couple mislynches that give the town very little info.

The way that cyrus is continually tilting shade at this slot and arguing for a lynch even after the replacement request is sent in (See #360) is really worrying me. I honestly have no idea why cyrus-town argues for this. Wagoning somebody who made a grand total of 1 post before being forcibly replaced that you don't seem to find particularly suspicious before a replacement can even show up is a completely terrible exercise; there's very little to analyze from the roleflip in terms of the lynchee's content, there's very little association because there isn't much for people to comment on or engage with, and you don't give the role the ability to claim and therefore potentially ram a lynch on a power role through. I can definitely see why scum would engage in this sort of exercise, but I'm bewildered as to why the idea would even enter town's head. I'm also not very comfortable with the fact that cyrus floats this possibility out there and doesn't, you know, vote my or phone's slot. Just kinda tosses it out into the aether for consideration without putting any real feeling behind it. (I kind of feel the same about Spangled, but at least Spangled is being much more tentative about this.) It's not like cyrus is doing anything with his vote right now anyway, last I saw he was still on his RVS vote which he had just dispatched. I'm not even sure how it fits into Cyrus worrying about Red earlier or right before that saying that we have no leads over 370 posts into the game.

Like, I'm really skeptical of two decently-experienced townies suddenly seeing this as a good idea totally organically, so one of Spangled and Cyrus is quite plausibly scum. And Spangled at least still seems to be doing things like looking at Adorable and crosschecking after making that declaration, indicating a degree of paranoia that I'm looking for, and just in general in comparison to 388, I think 389 and 390 just read a bit better from a townie mindset. That said, I could totally see Spangled-scum egging on a really bad impulse from town-cyrus here, and I really don't want to rule that out. But in general Cyrus making this play feels a lot more "yikes" to me.

I'm decently confident that one of Spangled or cyrus is scum, and certain that they aren't scum together; that last conversation between them absolutely would have occurred in a private topic if they were. Pretty sure neither of them are scum with phone either if they are going to try and play things this way. I think Cyrus looks worse in this bit (I also recall some of Cyrus' posts reading as kind of forced in my first readthrough, but I wasn't sure if that was because they were forced or just how cyrus' posts would generally read), but it could still probably go either way.

I have no idea what Temporal is doing with his reads this game, they feel all over the place to me and honestly he's probably my best candidate outside cyrus. I'm really not getting the Town v. Town Robb-Temp reads here and would like somebody to explain it to me like I'm 5.

Robb and Redflag both feel pretty town, as does Adorable to a slightly lesser extent. Gun to my head? I say Spangled probably has a Town role, though I'm not betting the horse on it. Phone I have no idea how to read but the fact that I can really only imagine Redflavor as a partner (maaaybe Cyan and Rob? Maaaybe?) is making me think his slot is probably town just through POE. I'll see how the replacement handles it. Cyan I'm super "meh" on at the moment.

I'm going to go through the game again and do some proper notes and a couple questions for players after I get a little sleep (I'm #YOLOing sleep deprived atm) before I vote, but my immediate reads are

TOWN: Robb, Redflavor, Sera (Confirmed town in my role PM guys she's legit)
LEAN-TOWN: Adorable, phone (tentative, if Flavor is scum phone is decently likely to be, otherwise meh)
NULL: Cyan, Spangled (alternating between this and in the lean-town bracket; I'm hoping a reread will force me to pick a side there)
LEAN SCUM: Cyrus, Temporal

I'm not inclined to lynch anything above null right now, and would much prefer Cyrus or Temp over Cyan and Spangled (given how Cyrus has engaged with the Cyan slot, and vice-versa). I could see myself joining that Temp wagon, but atm I honestly feel a little better about a Cyrus lynch.

Will be on a plane tomorrow, so catch-up post might not be until Tuesday if I end up sleeping all night, which I probably will.

[quote="In [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p11086531]
And not catching up is fairly scum indicative, so keep that in mind.[/quote]

I'm curious

1. Why you feel this way
2. Why would tell me this before I post, since it seems like a useful tell to have in your pocket.

[Sera Masumi]

yes yes its easyer to find reads when you only have 2 post ofc this isnt your doing and it has been said that when noobs role scum on thire 1st game they replace out. so yes connar hasnt posted since the 4th what am i to think of that .

I don't expect you to think anything? What is the difference between somebody who posts once and then doesn't post anymore because they're scum, and somebody who posts once and then doesn't post anymore because they didn't like the game? How do I tell one from the other?

i been trying to read every one here and the ones with the most post are me and spangled so yes after sorting him and knowing my self thire just wasnt enogh by any one else to from reads .

Tell me more about your read on Spangled, actually, you haven't really said a lot about them today.

cyrus only said red thinks phone is town and that I think red is scum, nothing about cyrus having any proper reads.
Don't see anything that would contraindicate a cyrus/spangled scumteam besides those two being high TRs. It's still outlandish, but it's not like a red flip from one makes the other confirmed town.

1. You think scum would really write that 388-400 exchange together? Because I don't.
2. I believe I linked the post where Cyrus indicates that he doesn't have reads because the game isn't giving him that much information? (#374, he also says we have "no leads" in the post I quoted).

[Sera Masumi]

seeing it as it is yes it can be either of the two . however i did not like the fact that the thread got held by these two. i already sorted every one i could and came back to phone and connar

But connor was getting replaced after making one post all game? The game was holding up because he quit the game and they needed to find someone else. Turns out Phone was basically the same way. Why is that suspicious to the point that you'd shade somebody getting replaced with one post that you didn't seem to find particularly suspicious instead of poking at other players?

Actually can we cut to the chase and have you explain why you thought arguing to lynch somebody being replaced before their replacement entered was a good idea?

i dont see how spangled could be anything but town hes looking for scum and doing reads

Scum can pretend to do those things though? Phone gave reads. I gave reads. Everyone in the game has given reads at one point or another. What about Spangled's hunting feels genuine to you?

[Sera Masumi]

Scum can pretend to do those things though? Phone gave reads. I gave reads. Everyone in the game has given reads at one point or another. What about Spangled's hunting feels genuine to you?

Pretty sure you're not scumclaiming or outing your partner here, but the wording is ambiguous.

Unless you think I'm claiming that everyone in this game is my scumpartner (since that is an additional subset of "X can do these things too"), I was just using "scum" as a broad categorization and listing two people that cyrus has been voicing suspicion of lately, including myself, as examples. Be a pretty dumb scumslip tbh, but then I suppose they aren't many "smart" scumslips.

Like, I'm really skeptical of two decently-experienced townies

Please keep in mind, I'm not decently experienced as a member of the town. This is my first town game (I'm playing another at the moment but this one I got started in before that; I'm not breaking site rules by implying anything).

Fair enough.

and i know this how you cant just jump and and think or this person said that since the person i am replaceing could be scum becuse of only one post and un able to make reads becuse of it must be scum

I'm... not sure what you're saying here. Rephrase?

what it was a thought since no one was posting and i had already sorted every one else

Why didn't you want to wait until connor had somebody replace in that could give you more information for a read, and also be available to claim, and improve your reads on other players, and instead engage with other posters in order to more effectively sort them, etc etc? Like, let's look at it this way. You lynch connor's slot in the next couple days before somebody replaces in. Connor flips town. What does that tell you? How do you use that to get information to hit scum on D2? Hell, what does him flipping scum really tell you and how do you use that information? And how is this preferable to just waiting for a replacement?

PRE-EDIT: @Spangled- 127 and 136 do a little for me, I admit, but I'm still pretty "eeeeh" about the slot. I think I'm probably done with feelers at this point and if I can't sleep I'll go do my reread and firm things up; I'm fine with a Temporal wagon overall if people don't buy a cyrus one.

[Sera Masumi]

Okay let's go wheee. I ended up adding in links roughly halfway through so a few of these are you going to need to find yourself but it's 4:30 AM and I just don't have the energy after writing up this wall to go add more links lol.

Spoiler: Notes

#19- I don't like the way cyrus completely caves on his stance in 18 like 20 minutes later.
I actually really like rob's poking of Temp in #29 and #31.
Robb and teacher in 33-41 is absolutely not Scum v. Scum. Got it. I don't really get Temp's vote there.
#51- I like how aggro Rob is being without even bothering to try and getting any pro-town players on-side. I haven't seen his scum game but this feels really genuine.
#62 and #64 read pretty awk to me; I'm still not sure if it's cyrus I'm reading or This Game's Cyrus, though. Rob's poking him in #65 is still good.
Adorable's Post #69 is kinda vaguely contributive, which is good, but kinda nothing too.
Robb's Post #79 is also genuine as fuck.
I don't agree with Adorable's #85 but I like the thought process behind it.
Cyrus' #86 gets a wince from me, even if I'm not quite sure why.
Robb's #96 is also really genuine and good, but I'm saying that about a lot of his posts.

I like Redflavor's #105 because that's more or less what I'd be asking in that position.

Temp's #112 and #114 is weird. He puts Phone as leaning-scum but is unwilling to vote him over Rob, and he's voting Rob for reasons that he never quite explained. When Rob pokes him about it, he admits that Robb has been looking more townie, but that phone is a "bad vote" for claiming scum even though that was enough to put him on the scum-side of his scumlist (??????) He then says 34 is scummy again without saying why.

120 is admittedly not great.

126 is pretty solid analysis, I like it. I like cyrus' shaming Adorable for his town read on rob in 127 a lot less.

131 is also pretty good analysis and I completely agree with it, so townie points there. I agree with the reads in 138 and think that overall the analysis reads as genuine and things that I could have written.

I don't mind #143 overall, but I find it a bit odd that Adorable would cast stones on the Robb voters without naming or shaming any of the people they have in mind. His elaboration in #147 isn't terrible in building on that, though.

I'm noting 151 for later.

Meanwhile in Post 159 land, instead of voting that self-voter that Temp seemed to find suspicious or Robb who he was talking about finding suspicious, he's voting compton who he had as null based off that one post, and as Robb then points out, is backtracking away from his read on Robb seemingly because people called him town despite doubling-down on it in 119. It's also worth noting that he's voting compton right after Adorable calls him suspicious.

161 is just terrible. After Robb then calls him out on it, instead of actually expaining himself and what made him think Robb was town now, he just swings back to his Robb vote. His really awkward spin in 163 that Robb saying that he should "claim scum" is a request for him to claim is a massive reach too.

In 175 he says that it's because people argued that Robb was town. I don't find this all that convincing because it's not like he actually notes those arguments or why he finds them compelling in either here or his unvote, or why Robb's post suddenly makes those arguments moot. It's basically literally saying "people are no longer finding you scummy anymore so I'm going to try and find someone else to potentially mislynch".

I don't really like the way Cyan seems to kind of flip-flop on the Robb-Temp exchange in 177 and 178 and never really lands on a particular side. It feels icky and opportunistic. 180 is slightly closer but I wish Cyan had taken a stronger stance here.

185 is really bad. "You negated my townread on you by finding something you found scummy and calling me scum for it!" (??????????)

Adorable's 201 vote is quite good and sound.

I don't like 204that much, it feels like someone trying to have their cake and eat it too.

I do really like 206 though.

Temp's 208 is pretty bad too. This comes like 100 posts too late and is just a bland echo of Cyrus' 89, more or less. And I really dislike how Temp commented two posts later and said absolutely nothing about it at the time.

I'm not a fan of how Cyris goes from "people are organic and while past games are often an indicator, people change their play and so one needs to be careful about single game metas" in 159 to "I'm playing exactly how I was in my last town game!" in 215.

I want anybody to tell me how the evolution from 241's "there's no way Robb is ever town" to 245's ("Robb and Temp is TvT") literally an hour apart. Also he shifts his vote to Cyan, the main other wagon at the moment, and says he suspects Red, who other people are getting suspicious of.

If Temp is scum, one of Spangled, Cyrus (#252), Adorable (#257) and Cyan's #271 is almost certainly Temp's partner backing them. Also Temp's #260 really feels stilted to me.

I'm actually willing to accept 269 and be willing to give Cyan another day or so and see how that works out, since I think I have bigger scumreads.

I'd actually like some elaboration on 277. I agree with his 279 and 280 posts regarding teacher and phone, though.

Spangled's 308 case against Temp is decent.

I really don't like Temporal trying to spin a playstyle difference with Red into a scumtell in 319 and 340. Contrast with Robb's 316 and 317.

I find the idea in 343 that Red is currently Temp's only scumread rather strange when he's currently voting Cyan and had that weird posturing post toward phone in 337. And am deeply uncomfortable with this "A PL on Red is fine" nonsense.

I'm also deeply uncomfortable with more posturing at phone after more people start finding him suspicious in 403 after the context provided in 359. Temp's suspicions and votes consistently seem to be timed with consensus opinion and echoing others and that makes me deeply uncomfortable. I like Red calling this out in 407.

I kind of like Red not biting on the easy Connor lynch in 365.

So, I'm a little tired and not going to do a full read of everybody like I said I was going to, my notes are there if you want to take a look. I'll try and do a summary later. But I will say that this strongly strengthened my townread on Spangled, slightly strengthened my read on Adorable, and weakened my townread on Red slightly. It also gave me... a slight boost on Cyrus? Not much of one though. That said, Temp is honestly reading worse to me right now. Let's add a vote there and see how it goes. I don't see much of a problem of putting him at L-2 at this point, since I don't see going anywhere else today unless something happens and L-2 isn't insta-death.

TOWN: Spangled, Robb, Adorable
LEAN TOWN: Redflavor, Phone
NULL: Cyan
LEAN SCUM: Cyrus, Temporal

VOTE: TemporalLich

Also Temp why do you think I'm town now?

[Sera Masumi]

If anybody lolhammers, they're dead, FYI.

I don't like that I'm mentioned only once (as making a decent case on Temporal), but still pushed up to a TR. Why else do you think I'm town?

In general I quite like your analysis, I think a lot of your posts have basically read my mind and helped set a positive consensus for town incredibly nicely- I really liked #399 and your more recent post about Adorable for instance, and I like . I like your arguments for town!Teacher in #83 too, they more or less are the types of arguments I would have made if I were here. Your pressure against Flavor is solid in #209, and I like your continuance of that pressure in #270, even if I'm pretty sure Red flips town this game. I like your rather lassez-faire reaction to Red not liking cases when I compare it to Temp. I got a little lazy when it comes to just saying "I like this post" in the ISO because linking things is honestly quite a bit of effort (If I do it again, I'm definitely not writing the post in one huge burst in the early morning), but that's really what it comes down to. Like with Red and Robb especially, you're making a lot of thoughtful content that is really clicking with me, and I like that.

In terms of the whole "Town v. Town" fight thing; the thing is that if Temp is scum, that's exactly the reaction they want town to have. Robb is going to prove to be a difficult lynch, so the logical thing to do is back off him until later when you can get "paranoid" about him down-the-line, but Temp just had a pretty ferocious battle with him when his lynch was looking more plausible, so the best move unless you really want to bus Temp (and I don't see doing that here) is pushing this as a two-townie fight. It doesn't cost you any town cachet to say that it's a town-town fight, especially since that's something some townies are willing to independently believe; it's decent reward for basically no risk. You're the one that first brought it up so out of the group I'd put you least likely to be Temp's buddy with that reasoning (and just in general your engagement with Temp is easily the best of the group, which is another reason I think you're town), but I don't want to totally discount you either.

[Sera Masumi]

*I like your recent continuation of your Adorable case.

[Sera Masumi]

Honestly I'll try to tone it down on the WOT now; that first post was not supposed to be that long but when I started I couldn't stop and can be a wordy person, RIP.

In regards to your case, your arguments on Temporal seem really convincing, and it does make me doubt the TvT thing I mentioned earlier somewhat (although to say I'm sure here would be wrong). I'd like to hear Temporal give counterpoint or whatnot before deciding if the lynch should go through.

I don't think the lynch should go through until we get a phone replacement and they start saying stuff unless I really don't like what Temp sells me, personally. Honestly, I think I'm going to unvote just to make sure nobody pulls any shenanigans, but the intent is absolutely there and unless Temp has a really strong defense he should probably just claim now and we can move forward from there. (Though he should be defending himself anyway.)

UNVOTE:

I somewhat disagree with your read on Cyrus, mainly because he tends to play about as messily as he is doing here and his behavior doesn't really align with traditional Mafia meta (please look at the town game he posted for an idea of how he works).

I'm admittedly open to this; I'm slightly skeptical of looking at meta because I don't have the experience doing it to know that I"m looking at it properly. but I did skim the game and at least on surface-level it's looking rather similar, though given that cyrus himself posted I would expect cyrus-scum to try and replicate his play there; the question is how capable he is of doing it.

[Sera Masumi]

*what cyrus himself posted

[Sera Masumi]

If you guys think Temporal really is scum, then the only person I could think of who could be Temporal's scum buddy would be Cyrus if Temporal really is scum.

Big if true.

What do you think of Temp?

[Sera Masumi]

Just saw I got to L-1 and then instead of being put in the tent I'm taken off L-1. I'm not claiming yet.

I mean, I unvoted solely to make sure no lolhammer shenanigans went on and gave you time to respond to the in-thread arguments or claim. Choosing to do neither isn't really the best look...

[Sera Masumi]

your vote is wolfy then

Ok.

Follow-up: Why?

[Sera Masumi]

2. I agree but I don't think that's at all AI

You think that flows well at all with basically everything else he's posting?

What was promising about it?

if you're trying to rolefish, you're trying to look townier than you should be.

Right now, you're somebody that is effectively at L-1. As somebody at L-1, you have two main options available to you:

1. Get the wagon off you without claiming by responding to criticisms
2. Claim and persuade people to look elsewhere.

That is where we are. I explicitly gave you the option of doing 1 and not 2, maybe there are persuasive counterarguments to the things being raised that I just haven't thought of. But you need to do

something

, and I gave you the space to do that something. So, you know, do it?

[Sera Masumi]

Out of curiosity why am I the scummy one and not Spangled, who was the actual L-1 vote?

[Sera Masumi]

I'll just concede the intial phone stuff because it isn't even that important; it's some of the least scummy stuff in your ISO.

159 was from doubt fostered by people townreading Robb. connor was pretty low on my readlist for basically not being in the game.

Incidentally, what cause you to go from "I'm just gonna say Robb is scum" in #103 to "your recent posts have been townie I guess" in #114? He made one post, outside his question to you, in that time: Post #111, where he just says that self-voting is scummy, just not alignment-indicative. Which is basically just saying "It's technically not scummy, but it is anti-town". What is alignment-indicative about that post? Why did any prior good-looking posts not come into consideration until Robb asks you to explain your read?

Why didn't you mention this at the time? Make any note of it until after you were called out? You had absolutely no actual suspicions at that point and instead decided to vote a nullread with one post? And if you didn't have any suspicions, you didn't ask questions or try to sort anyone or do... anything? Because all you do is swing to another wagon and make no attempt to actually engage with the other people in the game? What were you hoping the vote on connor would accomplish? If you wanted to pressure him, why not ask him any questions or give him things to talk about? You don't do that and just hop onto another uncontroversial potential wagon.

Actually, you aren't really engaging with users in with an intent to sort them at all this game. What's up with that?

I'm not sure why 161 is still being used to attack me. If doubts are a bad thing to have, then I should hard SR Robb instead. 163 was because I was being attacked for having doubts and acting like I'm scummy scum, and then the whole "I claimed scum" business happened. That's -10% me being scum in a SvT interaction.

Let's look at what is happening here.

You post this.

Not too much feeling Robb scum anymore. Phone is still a bad vote.

Okay, why do you not feel that Robb is scum? You don't say. You give no indication and this happens to be when momentum starts to die on Robb with users like Spangled making a case that Robb is town. People naturally find this a little curious and maybe even a little suspicious. Robb then points this out.

When I’m gone please pay attention to the back tracking by temporal. He doubled down on me but now two people are advocating I could be town and he backs down without a fight or without any reasons

You could, here, just explain the rationale for your vote switch and explain why you didn't mention it and how this all came from a townie headspace. You could actually challenge his argument and engage with him in good faith. Instead, you just vote him again. You don't explain how this erases the previous townread that existed of him, why it's even particularly suspicious. And you never do that. The closest you come is saying that it's suspicious because Rob is calling you out for something he finds suspicious (????) in #185. And I have no idea how that's supposed to be a scumtell to the point that it obliterated your newfound townread.

You then devote your energy to saying that somebody saying that you "claim[ed] scum" is somehow asking for an actual roleclaim, which is incredibly ????? in itself.

I really need you to explain how

1. Unvotes Robb because he's convinced by other users
2. Robb points out that you don't actually mention why you unvoted him
3. You vote him again

Comes from an organic evolution of your read on him at all. Because I'm not seeing it.

Sera, you can believe refusing to give cases is a "playstyle" all you want, but it is deliberately anti-town and I want no part in it. Attacking the reasoning I gave in 340 is not only not towny, but might indicate Sera is scum with RedFlavor.

343 is deliberately misrepresenting facts. 270 was my vote at that time. And asking someone to explain their reads is not posturing. And "if it is a PL I honestly don't have anything better." is null-scum at worst, my vote's still on my bottom read at least.

There's a lot wrong here.

First of all, it's utterly non alignment indicative and I firmly don't believe you don't understand that.

Secondly, yes I mixed up who your vote was on in my readthrough. What does that change exactly? It doesn't impact my argument at all.

Thirdly, you didn't just "ask for someone to explain their reads". Let me quote you.

care to explain these reads?

otherwise I might think you're scum trying to pocket those people

Yes, however could I read this as you posturing or intimating that phone is likely to be scum? It boggles the mind.

Things you didn't even respond to:

Temp's 208 is pretty bad too. This comes like 100 posts too late and is just a bland echo of Cyrus' 89, more or less. And I really dislike how Temp commented two posts later and said absolutely nothing about it at the time.

I'm also deeply uncomfortable with more posturing at phone after more people start finding him suspicious in 403 after the context provided in 359. Temp's suspicions and votes consistently seem to be timed with consensus opinion and echoing others and that makes me deeply uncomfortable. I like Red calling this out in 407.

I'm pretty confident Sera is scum.

Incidentally, why does Sera!Scum jump into the game and immediately try to burn town credit she doesn't have attacking somebody everybody else thinks was town and is in a de facto leader-like role? Especially if you think my buddy is Red, why wouldn't I attack Cyan or Phone or somebody?

[Sera Masumi]

You don't get to intimidate me by acting like I'm in the tent when I'm only at L-2. Either you can have me at L-2 or L-1. You don't get to put me in a superposition of both voting states.

That isn't really how "I'm unvoting just so that you don't get lolhammered, you're functionally at L-1" works but ok.

[Sera Masumi]

It was an actual catchup with decent reads...

Wait, you found me scumreading you, somebody else you've been proclaiming town all game, townreading your main scum suspect, giving a town-lean to phone who you are now intimating is quite plausibly scum, to be "decent reads"? Why? What was decent about them?

This isn't gelling for me at all, as you can see.

[Sera Masumi]

Either way I'm not in the tent yet.

If somebody hammers, they're lynched next.

VOTE: TemporalLich

[Sera Masumi]

let me start by saying i realu dislike big post overly worded as they are could have hidden meaning as i said i wasnt able to read no one fully yet and yes at a risk of takeing flank may i ask why your puting temp to l1 with out asking red to tell thire reads or build a case waiting for rob to respond and even hearing them out fully .

I've repeatedly noted to Temp that he can argue against my arguments and try to get the wagon off him, so I'm not sure in what sense I'm not "hearing him out fully" or shutting down other people's ability to give opinions and reads, since I'm explicitly not calling for a hammer right now, and actively disencentivizing anybody from hammering by noting that they're next if they do it. I didn't even

want to put him at L-1

, I explicitly refused to do so but then Temp decided to stonewall me because technically speaking he wasn't at L-1. If Temp is willing to accept that my vote is functionally on him without it being there, I will happily unvote.

Also
SHOT- "I'm going to unofficially put Temp at L-1 but remove the vote because I don't want any lolhammers" "YOU TECHNICALLY HAVEN'T PUT ME AT L-1"
CHASER- "Okay, if you're going to only accept being at L-1 if I put you there, because that's where I feel you should be, I'll put my vote there." "It sure is suspicious that you put Temp at L-1!"

Is everyone seeing this?

all i have seen from temp this game was he scum read some one got yelled at by the person thenevery one said it was tvt

Um, including... you?

Cyan, Adorable, cyrus, FL, connor, can you give us your perspective on this Robb vs. Temporal battle?

i agree with you sounds like tvt but i disagree with the sifting votes 3 times in a day .

and no one looked closer at rob . or red for saying phone is town cuse i playd with him .

Wait, since when did you suspect Robb? This is new. Also I don't get that second sentence, can you rephrase it?

i need these people to be looked at closer before i even think of voteing my town reads and now you put your self in a spot saying temp and me or spangled or me so dose that mean that if temp comes back town your still assume me but now suspect spanglled and then hang oonne of us.

Who is stopping you from... looking at them closer right now? Nothing about Temp being at L-1 is stopping you from continuing to explore your reads independently of Temp. If Temp flips town I will re-evaluate my reads, as is appropriate when a suspect flips town. That said, I will continue to think you are suspicious and likely to be scum, because my arguments against you are in no way wholly reliant on Temp flipping red. I'm liking Spangled a lot more after my proper reread so I'm not sure I really want him lynched at all at this point, at least any time soon.

I'm about to head to the airport after my initial flight got cancelled so I can't do it now, but later (at least when I get off the Red Eye, if not sooner while I'm waiting for the flight) I will give you a regular numbered list of the reasons I find Temp suspicious for your perusal in as plain language as possible.

[Sera Masumi]

if you npte cyan him self said i was pinging him becuse i was being diffent then that game sp how would i be doing the same thing if i was makeing him wonder with my game play here i am trying to improve and look closer.

"trying to do something" is not the same as "completely being able to do it" though.

But as much as I don't like the one before it, the rest of this post more or less does feel like it's coming from a sincere place. Hm. I'll have to think about this.

[Sera Masumi]

And I'm trying to cut it down a bit, but I can get a bit wally because I'm a verbose person, and this language is just how I write. I'm sorry, I'll try my best to be as clear as possible?

[Sera Masumi]

I'm wholly convinced Sera wants to have me at L-1 and not have me at L-1 at the same time. That's not how mafia works.

Which is why I outright voted you and put you at L-1. The math checks out.

Are you going to actually respond to my explanation for why your responses are flawed at best or...?

Also @cyrus- You didn't care about it being L-1 when Phoenix voted Robb back in early Day 1, you were happy to contemplate running my slot into the ground based off a post that you didn't even think was scummy because it was dragging out the day, why is Temp being at L-1 such a big deal for you?

Also I expect you to actually dig into these Red and Robb and Phone suspicions now.

[Sera Masumi]

So Temp is getting scum read for unvoting Robb and then voting him again? In past games I have seen town do this and I don't think scum are capable of this kind of play. I have already said I think Robb vs Temp is town vs town and the only player I could think of who could be Temp's scum buddy would be Cyrus if you guys think Temp really is scum.

No, that is not a fair interpretation of why Temp is getting scumread and it is not what I said. Here are the reasons why Temp is being scumread- not all these are created equal, of course, but here they are in clear language, I'll tag them for space reasons:

Spoiler: Reasons Rob Is Scum

1. He flips his reads within hours with little explanation- saying that he is going to "go ahead and say that Robb is scum" in one post and then say "his posts lately have been more townie" in the next with one Robb post in-between. It isn't consistent and it isn't organic. The same is true for when he says that there is no way Robb flips town, and then saying within 40 minutes that the fight is TvT. He also suddenly starts saying phone is scum when people start suspecting them after indicating otherwise earlier.

2. When he unvotes Robb he doesn't actually make a case for Cyrus, or try fish out reads on other players by engaging with them or do... anything other than hop on somebody else another player says was suspicious earlier.

3. When Robb just.... challenges him on why he changed his mind and unvoted, instead of just... saying why he unvoted or engaging him at all, he just swings his vote his way for basically no reason, the only one he gives is that "Rob is finding me suspicious for doing something he finds scummy" (See #85). I see no way in which this logically follows from a townie mindset or why it gets rid of his townread on Robb. It makes no sense to me at all. If anybody can explain to me how this works from a town perspective, I'm happy to hear. Also his talk about how Robb is asking him to "role claim" by saying he has "claim[ed] scum" is forced as all hell.

4. His shade on Red for not believing in cases feels like an opportunistic way to throw shade on somebody scumreading him, and advocates for a PL on him on those grounds instead of voting on a scumread, which also feels sketchy and opportunistic.

5. His reads continually feel like they abide by consensus. He votes connor after someone else calls him scummy, he votes Redd after Redd starts to get pressure on him, and backs off when people start calling Redd town. He starts suspecting phone and Red after people start to find them suspicious, etc. etc.

6. He will continually do things for apparent little reason and often only justify them after-the-fact by sheeping other users- his reasons for backing off Robb are stolen from Spangled (as I recall), his reasons for thinking Phone are town earlier that day are stolen from Cyrus over 200 posts ago, only justify why phone is a bad vote in a conversation with me hundreds of posts later, etc. In general getting reasons for why he believes things is like pulling teeth.

7. His engagement with me post-suspicion has been shady as hell.

[Sera Masumi]

Also ftr I could easily see a Cyan/Temp team; I could also see an Adorable/Temp team or even a phone/Temp team, though that one is a lot more tentative. It is definitely not just Cyrus.

[Sera Masumi]

if you think my defence in temp is a ai then by all means lynch them im willing to bet my life they are town but are you? are you so sure they flip scum to the point your be d2 lynch? the only way you would keep up is if theres a cc in which case your role fishing on d1 which isnt towny becuse if they out them self we our giveing up are pr before they can help. i say stop at the soft at soft and dont push . pushing for a pr so early dose not help town.

I'm... not pushing for a PR. I'm literally just voting the person I find suspicious, which is how Mafia works. Also are you going to answer my questions?

This is a really weird thing for a Temp buddy to say, gotta admit. It's not enough to make me not want to lynch Temp, admittedly, but it is definitely something worth thinking about.

Though for the record if you are town, you should never "bet your life" that somebody else is town unless you have role-related reasons to believe they are. Just as I could be wrong about Temp, you could be too. Townies are wrong far more often than they're right.

[Sera Masumi]

you may nopt have a doc in which case if its a cop they are dead and scum gets a free by and then d2 if we get it wrong they then know it hurts us cuse we only havew one to find them and "if theres a rb then they dont have to kill them but blocl them its best for pr to hide till d2 or d3. it helps us scum hunt better cuse they can check .

By this logic, anybody can softclaim a PR and we can never even push them to a claim, meaning that scum that fake hint at being PRs would win every time outside being investigated by an investigate PR that we might not necessarily even have, or can get killed in the night. Lynches have great return, but with that return comes an inherent degree of risk and that's something that one needs to always counterbalance.

The fact there's no resistance on my wagon means I might be done for.

What on Earth are you even talking about? There's two players out of 9 actively pushing against your lynch as hard as they can right now! In the last two pages!

[Sera Masumi]

are you realy willing to get are only pr killed.

Um, Cyrus, how do you know we only have 1 PR?

Like, only two setups out of 9 have only one PR.

This really reads like a scum that knows there are only Goons, and therefore assumes that we're in C1 or C2. Admittedly C3 also exists which means it isn't a slam-dunk slip, but can someone explain why Cyrus is assuming this when as a PR or vanilla townie he would have no reason to believe the odds are greater than 2/9?

PREDIT:
I would like to point out that even if there is no CC even after someone replaces in, Temporal could be betting on this being C2, C3, B2, B3, or A2. Like this whole thing reeks of theater between Cyrus and Temporal to me, and I genuinely don't believe that a cop claim says this

The fact there's no resistance on my wagon means I might be done for.

And why does Temporal!Cop think this when if he is a cop there is a 75% of a doc being in the setup?

I don't think I have a chance of surviving to D2.

But we're not lynching a claimed cop today when this can become clearer later on in the game, so

UNVOTE:
VOTE: cyrus62

Also can somebody explain what Cyrus' "There are no CCs, let's assume this is legit" is about when 2 players had posted up to that point, one of whom was him, and one slot that can't CC if they even want to?

@Spangled- If you really don't want to go to Cyrus even after all this, I'm willing to vote Cyan since they've done nothing for me this game and are the weakest remaining read. But I'm genuinely be shocked if at least one of Temporal and Cyrus isn't scum at this point.

[Sera Masumi]

i could ask you the same how do you know its not i made a guse . and its safer to think this way for town

I don't know it's not, but as somebody that doesn't know scumteam makeup, I also know there is a 7/9 chance that this is not the case. Why did you state as essentially fact the thing that has a 22% chance of being true. Why did you default to that as a guess?

[Sera Masumi]

[quote="In [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p11088888]I do think this is just cyrus' mode of thinking, and doing this, and he might have been caught up in the idea that it was C1.
But it gives him better scum equity, for sure, and while I don't think I'll consider him as a lynch today, I'll think about it.
[/quote]

Alright, I can at least admit that "worst case scenario thinking" is a possibility, even if that isn't really how he phrased it. It reads like a slip to me, but I do agree that there are alternative hypotheses. I'm going to keep myself there until I convince myself Cyan is somehow a better lynch or it's what I have to consolidate on, though.

RedFlavor is still ignoring this game.

RedFlavor contributing more could only help, yes, I do agree. I prefer Cyan over Red, but if he keeps this up my good will is probably going to run out sooner rather than later. I'd prefer if he isn't the lynch today, though.

Anyway, catching the Red Eye now, and then going to catch some shut-eye. Probably for the best if more than 4 people got to participate in the game anyway.

[Sera Masumi]

Actually let me correct myself; I was quickly reading the setups and made an error- if there is a cop in the setup, there's a 25% chance of a Doctor, which makes the second quote not as terrible. And we're not lynching a cop claim that will resolve itself- scum will NK it tonight, so.

[Sera Masumi]

spanled if i if anit hard on you on this they think im scum i know you didnt know better so i anit as pisst off at you as i am at her k you didnt push so hard .

Question: You think Temp is scum. What do you do in this scenario?

[Sera Masumi]

Like I'm legit kind of annoyed at both you and Temp if you're town, which at this point is not entirely implausible, but you know, it's a game. Gotta let it go.

Don't agree with #556 but I like it; think it comes from a sincere place.

[Sera Masumi]

Sera Masumi thinks refusing to effort is NAI (it's anti-town since it hurts the town by denying info and it's easier for scum to not effort), tries to put a Schrödinger's vote on me, multiplies by 1.5 when I push that as scummy to push my claim, and I don't get why Sera scumreads cyrus.

Why do these things make me scum?

Also I scumread Cyrus because overall I find the interactions with your wagon insincere and inconsistent with things he has said in the past, a lot of his posts come across as slightly forced to me, I find the suggestion to lynch my slot before I was even replaced incredibly suspicious, and I consider his comment about you being our "only PR" a potential slip.

I'm for lynching Talon, to be honest. I prefer a Cyrus lynch but if I'm not getting that, then Talon has kinda just.... been here all game and is the player I'm getting the least positive vibes about, to be honest. I'm also willing to lynch RedFlavor though I would much prefer Talon.

[Sera Masumi]

I just wish her posts could be a little on the shorter and more concise side of things, but having a lot to say isn't any hurtful for town.

I'm trying to do a little better with that, let me know if I start getting too WOTy again, 'kay? Especially unspoilered.

[Sera Masumi]

they aim at 3 other towns

Wait, you have Red as a townread? What happened to this?

i now however scum red spangled and the new guy for pushing for a pr clime so easy.

what no case and hes town cuse red said so

or red for saying phone is town cuse i playd with him . i need these people to be looked at closer before i even think of voteing my town reads

(Cyrus has been like this all game btw)

[Sera Masumi]

spangled was lead by her to do so

How did I do that exactly?

[Sera Masumi]

thats how i play read my town game i posted word for word dont just skim it

I didn't. Walk me through your read on Red, then.

[Sera Masumi]

Also I really don't think arguing with Temp is going to get the town anywhere and just clutter up the thread- I'm going to break from the thread for a while unless anyone has any questions or cases against me; I'm happy to engage with either.

[Sera Masumi]

thats how i play read my town game i posted word for word dont just skim it

Oh, I misread "read" as "red", that was my bad. I still want you to walk me through your read on red in the context of the other two quotes, though.

[Sera Masumi]

show us your case why your town then defend your self cuse i can case you as scum if you perfer

If there are any allegations I haven't defended myself against that you would like to me to, please quote them. And I'd love to read that case.

As for reasons why I'm town?

1. I've been incredibly forthright with reads, aggressively pursued them, allowed for my reads to develop organically (see Red and Spangle, in both directions).
2. Why would I, somebody who is replacing somebody slightly suspected with no town cred, go after you right when I enter when you're nearly universally read as town? Why wouldn't I go for an easier target like Red or phone, both of whom were suspected at the time?
3. Why did I unvote Temp right away? Since I clearly am indicating skepticism of their claim, i could have at least given it the old college try to force the mislynch of a claimed cop through, couldn't I?
4. I'm honestly not sure what the case on me is beyond "found a claimed PR suspicious and therefore voted him"?

[Sera Masumi]

*now-claimed PR

[Sera Masumi]

Going to spoiler tag this for space reasons.

Spoiler:

you should have made a case for temp for voteing him other then oh he flip flops but you seen every one was pointing at temp so it was a easy lynch if i wouldn't have backed you down you would have killed him what if scum was watching and we only had one pr i mean realy what if come on .

You can't just not lynch anyone because you might hit a PR. That's silly.

Also his engagement with Rob was one point out of the ~7 reasons I gave for Temp being suspicious; I posted that list of reasons that you can go take a look see. My case on Temp was easily the most thorough and nuanced of anybody making any anti-Temp arguments, so I'm not sure you can exactly say I was merely sheeping or following the crowd. Can you actually engage with my case on Temp instead of continually repeating untrue things about it?

easyest way to be thought of as town this is look at me im so towny becuse i aim for the bigest town i musst be town.

How on Earth is "going for somebody that everyone thinks is town" an easy way to get people to think I'm town? Going after one of the most town-read people in the game draws attention to yourself when I could be hunting targets like Phone and Cyan and Red, who people thought were scum anyway and therefore far more likely to sheep me? Instead I called Phone and Red likely town (heck I was even clearer on Red before changing my mind slightly, and that merely reduced him to "likely town" instead of "very town" for me.)

Saying that it's a "WIFOM argument" doesn't carry much weight when at its core literally anything in the game can be called a WIFOM argument. What is the scum motivation for doing it? What has it gotten me as opposed to the easier alternatives?

Also can you explain how I forced Spangled to put Temp at L-1?

thank you i showd my scum case just now

That wasn't a case at all tbh.

[Sera Masumi]

no one wants to write a book on here so yes thats the best case i could do ok lol i am going way out of my way to prove my self here 1st i stood by a fellow town didnt know they were pr at the time either but was a town read for me now im going after the person who targeted my bigest town read i realy have no idea any other way to prove im town but by doing what i am do i want to see you hang not with out enough poe but i wanted to get you to realize ev ery thing i am doing isnt scummy but in town play like you i am trying this is only my 2nd game ok. i have neverd playd on tos or any scum sight or foum sights so i am doing the best i can and now i am doing the best i can to prove that i am town like you and temp so get off my back and i'll get off yours and maybe we can hunt scum together sound fair.

I mean, I think you're scum so I'm not going to get off your back, sorry. I will say that some of your posts sound sincere like this one, and that one post where you put everything on the line for Temp being town was super weird for a Temp partner post, which is in your favor if Temp is scum at least. And there's posts here and there that I've liked well enough; your ISO isn't universally terrible. But I've made various arguments for why I think you're scum, and the ones you've engaged with I simply don't find your responses entirely compelling?

And I admit this game is frustrating me a bit so that was a little snippy, but I legit don't get what the case you and Temp have on me is beyond "Could be scum with Redflavor (like most of the town) and also thought Temp was scum"?

[Sera Masumi]

To try and make a case on Cyan- Post #100 and Post #106 where he comments on Phoenix's claim feels a little forced, I mean it was rather obvious that the cop claim wasn't serious given that we started on Day 1, and I do feel like Posts #177, 178, and 180 try to take both sides of the Robb v. Temp debate, and if Robb, Temp IS Town v. Town, I could see scum maybe just not knowing, or not caring, which side to push in that fight and therefore their responses feeling a little hedgy and free-flowing at times.

That said, I like his admittance of his passive behavior in #269 a bit, his #361 Connor read feels genuine and comes across like a townie thought process, I like his soft push against Cyrus in #382. Overall, like with Red, there are scummy posts here and there but in general I can see a lot of potential town thought process shining through and there is a content I really agree with in there.

The issue is that I really think that Adorable, Spangled, and Robb are town, we're not lynching a claimed cop with no CC, and I don't see much of a case against phone and want to wait for a replacement. So unless we're lynching Cyrus, that leaves Red and Cyan due to POE, even if I don't really have strong arguments against either. It's a compromise lynch for me.

[Sera Masumi]

You mentioned you see a lot of potential town thought process shining through Red and where was that?

I liked the way Red called out Temp's slight shift on Phone in #407, I like his general argument against Temp in #339, I like his lack of desire to push for a convenient connor lynch in #365. Overall I can agree with his thought process often when he shares it, and given that I'm town if somebody else is thinking like me I'm more inclined to think that they're town too.

But he's also way too lurky and my townread is very quickly wearing off, partially as a result of that and partially as a result of the fact that he just generally isn't as town as my towncore, and if we need a lynch I'm willing to go for him over somebody I really think is town.

[Sera Masumi]

Also who do you think is scum and why Adorable