Mini 2091: The Purge - Game Over!

[Delta Klim]

VOTE: Gandalf

I suppose this is a welcome to this site as well as an impromptu introductory course in BBCode.

[Delta Klim]

I see no way to publicly clear anyone based on night actions. Due to the nature of the setup, any other random person may have taken the shot.

[Delta Klim]

Even if we do vote for scum, it only matters for two of the three.

[Delta Klim]

How, exactly, are you saying that we could lose Day 1? Is it that the Mafia will take out two members of the town? In that case, I think that is more of an inevitability than anything else.

[Delta Klim]

Either the Mafia coordinate a second kill or some random Townie gets trigger-happy and the Mafia kill them.

[Delta Klim]

Yes, but that is assuming the Town plays poorly. Few of us should have a reason to shoot Night 1 beyond killing who we vote to strand.

[Delta Klim]

You asked how we could lose D1. I told you.

My point about last game was to demonstrate the possibility of a bunch of town dying on N1.

Yes, but I do not believe that to be the problem if we play competently.

On Night 1, almost no Townie should be confident enough in their reads to attempt a kill on anyone who isn't stranded. The Mafia will of course take either a kill and 2 barricades or 2 kills, and the Masons might decide to team up for a kill, but it's a bad idea for anyone else to shoot at someone who may be barricading. The only way we lose 4 townies is if the Goons both risk their lives on a kill, the Masons decide to kill and guess wrong, and a townie is stranded and killed. Otherwise we are still losing a few regardless of what we choose to do.

I acknowledge that this game is unwinnable if we simply stay cautious and never shoot, but there is no need to do so immediately.

[Delta Klim]

It is plurality, but majority ends the day as usual.

[Delta Klim]

@Mod:

Can No Lynch win a vote by plurality?

[Delta Klim]

No lynch seems silly, even in this format. Just need to have a couple (3-4?) townies say they will flip a coin as to whether to shoot our (lynch) or whether to barricade.

If it is 4 townies shooting half of the time, it is a 94% chance of the kill with, on average, 1 of the set of 4 wasting their action and being left exposed to be taken out by a single member of the Mafia.

If it is 7 townies shooting one-third of the time, it is again a 94% chance of the kill with only one wasted action, though it's from a larger group so the Mafia have a lower chance at a cheap kill.

This is not accounting for the chance that townies will lie about their actions to mislead the Mafia, of course. It's just a basic model and should not be taken as gospel.

[Delta Klim]

Pretty sure flipping a coin, or at least "provable randomness" is considered out of game influence and barred by site rules

It is not provable. Anyone can lie about the result of their coin flip or dice roll.

[Delta Klim]

@Mod

, you have some of us both voting and not voting.

Fixed!

[Delta Klim]

I believe I have discovered a possible breaking strategy for this setup once a Mafia is dead and at least one Mason lives.

Spoiler: Words

The Masons pair the non-Masons (minus 1 townread if an odd number of non-Masons remain) off, making sure to place unlikely scumpartners together. Everyone shoots the person they're paired with. Not shooting is treated as a scum claim. The Masons and townread barricade.

At Night, everyone will die except the Masons and townread, with the possible exception of the Mafia Strongman choosing to kill someone other than their pair. (The Mafia Goon, if they are alive, can barricade, but that costs the Mafia a kill and puts them in a 1v1 with their pair, so it accomplishes nothing as they will be forced to pair again the next night by the Town.)

If 1 Mason/odd non-Masons: Mafia win if they are the townread or, with 2 Mafia, they are paired. Otherwise, they die and Town wins.
If 2 Masons/odd non-Masons: Mafia win if the Strongman is the townread or, with 2 Mafia, they are paired. (If the Goon is the townread, the Strongman must shoot either a Mason or their pair, leaving the other alive and creating a 2v1 endgame with a conftown Mason, which is a Town victory in this setup.)
If even non-Masons/1 Mafia: Town win. The last Mafia is guaranteed to die with a townie left alive.
If even non-Masons/2 Mafia: Mafia win if they are paired. Otherwise, they are at best trapped in a 2v1 with a conftown (either the Mason or the now-dead Strongman's pair.)

---
Therefore, it makes the greatest sense to maximize the chance of that happening. In light of this, for night 1, I will make a slight change to my original plan. (In addition to keeping a strong chance that the stranded dies, it forces the Goons to at least think about barricading instead of taking a free kill-shot.)

Townies: 50% chance of barricade, 25% chance of shoot the stranded, 25% chance of shoot largest non-stranded scumread
Masons: 100% barricade, not a question about it.

These numbers are quick and off the top of my head, they may be slightly off by a couple percentage points.
Chance of a stranded Townie dying: 87%
Chance of a stranded Mafia dying: 90%

(All three below assume not stranded, random scumreads, and not the Mafia's target.)
Chance an individual Strongman or Goon (shooting) dies: 16%
Chance an individual Townie dies: 8%
Chance an individual Goon (barricading) or Mason dies: 1%

I might make this a Monte Carlo simulation if I have the time for it, but I do not need to in order to say that this strategy presents fairly good odds if we are good at scumhunting.

[Delta Klim]

So how are we going to find out for sure who the masons are then to get Delta's strategy to work? It doesn't feel like this stacks up quite as well as is being put across, but will result in almost all of town being wiped out n1?

It is simple. They claim. (This is a Day 2 strategy at the earliest. Masons should not claim today unless one of them is about to be stranded.)

[Delta Klim]

If there are two masons left, the strongman cannot kill both of them.

If there is one mason left, whoever the strongman is paired with will live, as they are not being shot if the strongman kills the mason.

[Delta Klim]

UNVOTE:

My scumread on Gandalf may just be a result of his inexperience. I'll give him a short amount of time to acclimate.

We do not need to guess at the masons' identities today (beyond not wanting to shoot a mason at night.)

Forcing two of the mafia to claim mason if one of them is in danger of being stranded is actually a good thing for town as the real masons can deal with them at night (or counter-claim on day 2.) It is less beneficial if we allow a claim of mason without claiming their partner, but I do not see a reason to do so.

In the 25%/25%/50% setup I proposed, a single stranded scum only lives if none of the 8 townies shoot them, a chance of 0.75^8 or 10%.
Town is the same with one fewer potential shooter.

For a single mafia to live if shooting at night, they have to not be targeted by a townie. Each townie has a 1 in 4 chance to shoot at their scumread, of which there are 11 possibilities (if ignoring the stranded player.) 1/44 is about 2.3%; the chance to dodge 8 townies at that rate is about 83%.

For a mafia to live if barricading, they would have to draw 2 shots from townies at that 2.3% rate. That has a 98.7% chance of not happening if the shots are truly random.

For a single town, it works the same as mafia except that there is one fewer shooter. 85% chance if shooting, 99% if barricading. Since each happens half the time, there is a 93% chance of survival.

Of course, all those odds assume they are not targeted by scum.

[Delta Klim]

Gandalf, can you elaborate on how you would expect the mafia to support a plan that has the possibility to instantly lose the game for them on day 2?

[Delta Klim]

I did say that at the top of my post, though in retrospect I can see where it could have been overlooked.

[Delta Klim]

Mafia win at 1v1, but Town can win at 2v2 if they strand the Goon.

[Delta Klim]

Serene, can you provide us with some actual content that is not either attacking Carl or saying you "aren't here to play math?"

[Delta Klim]

Serene definitely seems a bit scummish from their argument with Carl. I do not think it to be implausible that Serene and Carl are scum-on-scum, but there's not much to support that on Carl's side so T-T is more likely. Scum!Carl probably wouldn't be looking for this fight.

Also have Gandalf and Egduf as scumreads, though they may be newb!town and slightly-less-newb!town respectively. Oversoul was initially a light scumread but looks more like town as the day has gone on. Menalque is town, Espresso is townish. Tet is hard to read at this point, that last post isn't doing any favors.

[Delta Klim]

Hectic: I will keep that potential slip in mind; I had a null read on you and this does not change that. It probably

was

just a poorly thought out joke.

Oversoul and Tet: That post was in no way LAMIST. It's neutral at worst, making an observation about the setup.

VOTE: Iconeum just for the sake of having it on someone.

[Delta Klim]

I agree that 477 was a bit too hasty for my liking. I am keeping my vote against Iconeum, albeit for an entirely different reason than the one I made it.

I still have absolutely no read on Formerfish, which is actually starting to become rather annoying.

[Delta Klim]

As for you TD, you seem like youve suddenly STARTED posting now that a few more people are calling you out on your lack of meangful contribution to date?

This is entirely normal, especially in the first few days of a game. Also consider that this game started on a weekend, when some people are less available to post than during the week.

[Delta Klim]

Was Hectic's vote for a bad reason or for no reason at all? I'm starting to suspect the latter. When also considering the scumslip, he looks very much like scum.

[Delta Klim]

VOTE: Hectic

[Delta Klim]

He did seem to more readily approve of the plan once it became evident that it was coming from more than just me, albeit a little too slowly for my liking.

[Delta Klim]

I definitely do have a scum leaning on him, but the fact he could be newb!town makes me cautious to strand him, at least for the moment.

[Delta Klim]

Egduf has moved to town in my view (483 and 548 are probably not from scum, even if I do not particularly agree with the contents.) I specifically doubt she's scum with Gandalf, at the very least.

Spoiler: Quick reads before dinner

TOWN
Carl
Egduf
TiphaineDeath
Menalque
Serene

NEUTRAL/NULL
Espresso
Formerfish
Oversoul
Tet

SCUM
Iconeum
Gandalf
Hectic

[Delta Klim]

I scumread them both, but I am fairly confident that they cannot

both

be scum. Busing is a horrible idea in this setup.

[Delta Klim]

I would prefer fewer deaths tonight to more, but I understand that this is likely out of my control so I will not force the issue.

VOTE: Iconeum L-2

[Delta Klim]

That's essentially the strategy we appear to be going with, though I proposed "25% shoot stranded, 25% shoot scumread, 50% barricade" to keep both Goons from shooting for free.

Masons should always barricade; they're too valuable to risk being killed by a stray shot.

[Delta Klim]

It's Day 1. On an ordinary Day 1 we would have time to delay a lynch of a claimed Mason for a day, but this game's mechanics (and it being a blitz game) make that more difficult.

[Delta Klim]

UNVOTE:

That is what I needed to hear.

We have 24 hours remaining. We should make the most of them.

[Delta Klim]

Intent to hammer.

I also want to know why you thought that, Espresso. I did not see that in Gandalf at all.

[Delta Klim]

I'm not going to bother to read that.

[Delta Klim]

VOTE: Carl Tuckerson. I believe this is L-1, though I would not regret it if this is the hammer.

This does not clear Iconeum/FF/Serene; it could potentially be a (very stupid) gambit. He could also conceivably have a mason read on Icon or something similar, so it is not technically gamethrowing for town!Carl, only moronic. (Still, shots should be directed away from those three tonight.)

Serene, I will miss your incessant arguments and nonsense-posts once at least one of us takes a scumkill tonight.

My strategy tonight will be the 50/25/25 one I proposed. It's too late to form a consensus for the whole town to do it.

[Delta Klim]

Also, if Carl flips red, masons should feel free to claim at the start of the day tomorrow.

[Delta Klim]

Now we can only hope Carl and his cohorts lose tonight's game of nightkill WIFOM. A second dead scum would be lovely, but four dead town or a dead mason would hurt us considerably.

[Delta Klim]

Most of what you're saying makes sense, Serene.

No one else shoot Carl. If he lives, Serene is scum.

[Delta Klim]

The only people who should

always

barricade are the masons. If you're not, you can choose to risk yourself, but every shot we take is one more chance at accidentally killing a mason.

[Delta Klim]

I'll cap you without a gun bitch. Meet me at the Sonic parking lot

Feel free to waste your Strongman kill on someone who is already shooting.

[Delta Klim]

Is it truly improbable that scum are trying an extraordinarily risky gambit to try to drag themselves out of a situation that seems hopeless?

I do not think I can trust in anyone right now.