Mini 2091: The Purge - Game Over!

[Gandalf]

Hi everyone

[Gandalf]

I claim masons with mastina

Who is Mastina? I realise I'm being thick...

[Gandalf]

6 townies died in the first night I mean.

So are we looking to agree who town should shoot, before we all go off on some random bloodlust fuelled rampage then?

[Gandalf]

Menalque is town.
DGB

What makes you say Menalque is town?

[Gandalf]

Gandalf,

Is this your first game of mafia? If not, what is your mafia experience?

I've done enough games to know a first night bloodlust fuelled rampage is a sub-optimal strategy, but we've got guns, right? [seriously though, I've played a bit, and know someone who's pretty good, but new to forum mafia]. How much have you played then?

[Gandalf]

@Gandalf - you set up an avatar picture btw. It'll help us sort out which posts are yours when we're reading the thread.

Okay, will sort it now

[Gandalf]

Votes are to determine who has no night actions tonight, yeah?
I'm trying to figure out the ramifications of the fact that you're not actually killing the person you're voting for, necessarily (though presumably anybody who earns a majority vote to be stranded will get shot by someone).
Of course voting a mafia is ideal, but beyond that is it right to publicly state your suspicions or just put someone up that you don't want to commit night actions and then shoot somebody you actually suspect, so they won't barricade?

At 13-3, the less maverick we all play with our guns the better? Yes? That's like getting a day lynch and a night lynch, and we only lose a max of three people per night? Not that I don't realise Euguf already said that...

[Gandalf]

VOTE: Oversoul

The whole avatar thing is a nightmare getting it the right size...

[Gandalf]

Gandalf:

Photopea.com is your friend. It is a free photoshop site (with ads), but every basic photoshop tutorial you can find will be doable on photopea.com

Upload your image via url to the site
Use the magic wand tool to get rid of any white background
Click image then scroll down to image size, change to 100x100

Viola!

That's really good, thanks. I'll leave as the hat for this one now though, since you like it

[Gandalf]

Why do I always get OMGUS’d

You should look into that. Are you ever rude to anyone early on? (tongue in cheek)

[Gandalf]

I don’t feel like I’m rude to people, but others may have a different perception of my actions.

Just teasing. Didn't want you to think I was VI...

[Gandalf]

VOTE: Serene

post#48 is contradictory and must be purged

This a classic mafia post right?

[Gandalf]

VOTE: TiphanieDeath

Good short term plan...
.

[Gandalf]

VOTE: : TiphanieDeath

[Gandalf]

This isn't the most massively intuitive interface is it?

[Gandalf]

I'll stick to Bold

[Gandalf]

[TiphanieDeath/ vote]

[Gandalf]

AHHHHH!;)

[Gandalf]

VOTE: [TiphanieDeath/ vote]

[Gandalf]

VOTE: TiphanieDeath[/ vote]

[Gandalf]

VOTE: TiphanieDeath

[Gandalf]

Round of applause for me please!

[Gandalf]

Do we even get punished for no-"lynching" in this format? Aside from the fact that it means we didn't lock down a mafia's night actions.

Surely we do, yes? Any sort of random action works against town. So a missed lynch favours mafia? Random shooting is even worse?

[Gandalf]

EP is making sense to me? Is there any reason why this isnt a good idea?

[Gandalf]

Do we even get punished for no-"lynching" in this format? Aside from the fact that it means we didn't lock down a mafia's night actions.

Surely we do, yes? Any sort of random action works against town. So a missed lynch favours mafia? Random shooting is even worse?

I don't get what you're saying here, walk me through it.
No "lynching" here means that we aren't depriving anybody of night actions. The main logic to lynching on d1 is not that town is likely to hit mafia on day 1 (they aren't) but that the flip is worth the likelihood of hitting town. That doesn't hold in this game because a "lynch" doesn't give us a flip. If we think we're unlikely to strand the mafia then isn't it better to strand no one than to take a ~70% chance of stranding town?

I think you've convinced me. Someone who has played more will give an opinion. I'm confused about the maths in relation to the flip. Is this right?

[Gandalf]

Okay, maths people. So assuming there are "masons" then. Is it better to vote to lynch today, and then select a backup for town to kill at night at random, or to leave it?

[Gandalf]

So the Stranded gets paired with the top mason town read?

I believe I have discovered a possible breaking strategy for this setup once a Mafia is dead and at least one Mason lives.

Spoiler: Words

The Masons pair the non-Masons (minus 1 townread if an odd number of non-Masons remain) off, making sure to place unlikely scumpartners together. Everyone shoots the person they're paired with. Not shooting is treated as a scum claim. The Masons and townread barricade.

At Night, everyone will die except the Masons and townread, with the possible exception of the Mafia Strongman choosing to kill someone other than their pair. (The Mafia Goon, if they are alive, can barricade, but that costs the Mafia a kill and puts them in a 1v1 with their pair, so it accomplishes nothing as they will be forced to pair again the next night by the Town.)

Surely we should be barricading EXCEPT the masons? What is the advantage for us of the masons barricading? Obviously I’m missing something, but please could you explain it?

If 1 Mason/odd non-Masons: Mafia win if they are the townread or, with 2 Mafia, they are paired. Otherwise, they die and Town wins.
If 2 Masons/odd non-Masons: Mafia win if the Strongman is the townread or, with 2 Mafia, they are paired. (If the Goon is the townread, the Strongman must shoot either a Mason or their pair, leaving the other alive and creating a 2v1 endgame with a conftown Mason, which is a Town victory in this setup.)
If even non-Masons/1 Mafia: Town win. The last Mafia is guaranteed to die with a townie left alive.
If even non-Masons/2 Mafia: Mafia win if they are paired. Otherwise, they are at best trapped in a 2v1 with a conftown (either the Mason or the now-dead Strongman's pair.)

---
Therefore, it makes the greatest sense to maximize the chance of that happening. In light of this, for night 1, I will make a slight change to my original plan. (In addition to keeping a strong chance that the stranded dies, it forces the Goons to at least think about barricading instead of taking a free kill-shot.)

Townies: 50% chance of barricade, 25% chance of shoot the stranded, 25% chance of shoot largest non-stranded scumread
Masons: 100% barricade, not a question about it.

These numbers are quick and off the top of my head, they may be slightly off by a couple percentage points.
Chance of a stranded Townie dying: 87%
Chance of a stranded Mafia dying: 90%

(All three below assume not stranded, random scumreads, and not the Mafia's target.)
Chance an individual Strongman or Goon (shooting) dies: 16%
Chance an individual Townie dies: 8%
Chance an individual Goon (barricading) or Mason dies: 1%

I might make this a Monte Carlo simulation if I have the time for it, but I do not need to in order to say that this strategy presents fairly good odds if we are good at scumhunting.

[Gandalf]

So after a

comprehensive

read up of the thread:
-Delta's strategy seems game breaking

which

is great. The plan for night 1 looks good. I will now proceed to point my

FINGER OF APPROVAL

at you. Consider this an honour.
-Eudgf voted for me so I shall now vote for her.
VOTE: Vote: Vote: Edfug
-We need to start talking

more

about who to strand and our scumreads. Majority of

discussion

so far has been on night strats and

working

out the maths of

said

strats.

So how are we going to find out for sure who the masons are then to get Delta's strategy to work? It doesn't feel like this stacks up quite as well as is being put across, but will result in almost all of town being wiped out n1?

[Gandalf]

I'm thinking Delta and Hectic could be Scum, plus someone who is being quiet.

[Gandalf]

So how are we going to find out for sure who the masons are then to get Delta's strategy to work? It doesn't feel like this stacks up quite as well as is being put across, but will result in almost all of town being wiped out n1?

It is simple. They claim. (This is a Day 2 strategy at the earliest. Masons should not claim today unless one of them is about to be stranded.)

So if there are three people in mafia chat co-ordinating what to do, while the rest of us guess who the masons are (because anyone who gets stranded will claim mason), how does this impact on the probabilities you've posted? Sorry for being thick, I'm on a bit of a learning curve here...

[Gandalf]

And please can you show the actual calculations and the thinking, rather than just the results?

[Gandalf]

UNVOTE:

My scumread on Gandalf may just be a result of his inexperience. I'll give him a short amount of time to acclimate.

We do not need to guess at the masons' identities today (beyond not wanting to shoot a mason at night.)

Forcing two of the mafia to claim mason if one of them is in danger of being stranded is actually a good thing for town as the real masons can deal with them at night (or counter-claim on day 2.) It is less beneficial if we allow a claim of mason without claiming their partner, but I do not see a reason to do so.

In the 25%/25%/50% setup I proposed, a single stranded scum only lives if none of the 8 townies shoot them, a chance of 0.75^8 or 10%.
Town is the same with one fewer potential shooter.

For a single mafia to live if shooting at night, they have to not be targeted by a townie. Each townie has a 1 in 4 chance to shoot at their scumread, of which there are 11 possibilities (if ignoring the stranded player.) 1/44 is about 2.3%; the chance to dodge 8 townies at that rate is about 83%.

For a mafia to live if barricading, they would have to draw 2 shots from townies at that 2.3% rate. That has a 98.7% chance of not happening if the shots are truly random.

For a single town, it works the same as mafia except that there is one fewer shooter. 85% chance if shooting, 99% if barricading. Since each happens half the time, there is a 93% chance of survival.

Of course, all those odds assume they are not targeted by scum.

Okay town. So in this post Delta draws attention to my inexperience, but doesn't seem to address my request for workings on the maths if mafia are co-ordinating themselves separately from us in a private chat. If you remember when we started, we thought not shooting randomly at night was a good thing, until Delta found this "gamebreaking" strategy that involves us all shooting each other just like we agreed was a bad idea. I'm not saying I'm not going to go along with it, but what if mafia realised we were onto something and cooked this up in their chat, potentially explaining why Hectic said so little until voted for, and then suddenly sprang into life telling us not to worry about the maths behind this strategy.

The maths look wrong to me, the numbers are not where I would intuitively expect them to be. Bearing in mind three of you are scum, please could I get some outside confirmation outside of Delta that this is the way to go? What do we think of this?

[Gandalf]

Gandalf, can you talk me through a scenario where Delta’s strategy doesn’t work? Remember he’s only talking about situations where one mafia is already dead, this isn’t a plan for tonight. I can’t see any good reason for you to opposite it other than the fact you don’t think the numbers are where they should be, which isn’t a good reason unless you provide your own numbers.

I acknowledge I cant do the maths for this. However, I would expect mafia to support this plan. So if you are in favour, assuming you are town, that's good, but it is too narrow a sample for me to draw a conclusion on, as you might be scum. I'm hoping for everyone active in the chat to give a view on the maths which would provide a more reliable base. It seems very high stakes to blunder into based on some figures one player fired out and said make sense that I cant check. From memory there are two or three others who originally liked this approach, so does that remain the case?

[Gandalf]

I'm saying I cant think through all the potential scenarios either. It feels wrong, based on what we discussed earlier on, and you (Edguf) yourself said you were sceptical of this sort of plan. I also said I would go along with it, if there was sufficient support from a range of players - that would reassure me. But if its just two or three, then they could all be scum pushing a flawed plan.

I wouldn't expect mafia to support a plan that loses the game for them on day 2 either Delta. So assuming you are right, that's great. However, I don't understand why you are right, so was looking around for some outside feedback to help inform my opinion - which assuming you are right will be forthcoming, and then I'll be happy

[Gandalf]

Here’s the possible scenarios then
If the goon and strongman are in separate pairs:
The goon barricades, all town shoot. The only surviving player are the masons, town read, and the goon, the masons strand the goon and win.
The goon shoots, all town shoot. Everyone dies except the masons and the town read, we win.
The goon and strongman are in the same pair:
One of the masons/townread die, it’s 2v2, town lose.

The only times this plan fails is if we put both mafia members in the same pair, or if we get the one town read wrong. Having one strong town read is a pretty low bar to set for a plan, and the chance of mafia being in the same pair changes based on the number of players, but is pretty low. We should do better than random chance anyway, since the masons will be pairing people.

If mafia are in chat between themselves, and they influence us to get into the same pair, then they win? And we don't know who the masons are, this is the real issue that is still itching away at me? And we have to pick a town read on trust too? And if all that it works as planned, then the maths are as Delta says?

I think I'm still missing something. Sorry to bore everyone by labouring the point but hopefully you can get out some popcorn and have laugh along...

[Gandalf]

Okay, I been thinking about this a bit more. Thanks for the effort put into spelling it all out for me.

So I've asked for feedback and Delta, Edguf and Tiphane have all come back and said the plan is okay. Delta formed the plan, so that's two that have confirmed this plan as okay apart from Delta (plus Hectic and maybe some others before I started asked a load of questions about it). If we are going forward on the basis that I don't know whether it's a good plan or not, it would be good to get some extra views? It cant hurt town in any way to get it all out there.

[Gandalf]

Sorry to bore everyone

you fucking well should be, i'm not reading any of that shit


-k

love and kisses xxx

[Gandalf]

18 pages over the course of the weekend

seems like my kind of game

what did I miss?

Whats insights do you have to offer then Icon? As you say, lots to catch up on...

[Gandalf]

I agree with Carl. I think Hectic’s “scum slip” is the Towniest thing he’s done so far. It’s moved him up to a town read for me. I don’t think Icon’s reaction is scummy though, deliberately playing scummy as Town for a joke is a weird move, and being suspicious of that is fine.

Why is Hectic doing hilarious scumslip comedy to entertain us all, a particularly more townie thing to do than all his other posts - particularly as he does this as part of his playstyle? I cant see how that could have really infuenced your view on him one way or the other?

[Gandalf]

I think Melanque's ISO reads less town than Edguf, and not really following why he is convinced on Egduf as scum? Not saying that necessarily means he's scum though.

As for you TD, you seem like youve suddenly STARTED posting now that a few more people are calling you out on your lack of meangful contribution to date?

[Gandalf]

I've reflected on your post a bit more TD, following it all through and looking at subsequent feedback, I think I was possibly over influenced by your initial posts, and didnt read your proper analysis thoroughly enough.

[Gandalf]

Just for a bit of context on the changes in my input. I was at home over the weekend with plenty of time, and a PC. However, im now on a campsite with friends and stuff to do, and working off a tablet. Ive also realised this is a LOT harder than I anticipated in terms of the standard of most players, so Im feeling I need to take a lot more care in forming opinions, as a lot of what I originally thought I can now see is wrong. Im trying more to evaluate what others are saying, rather than just post what i think. For the avoidance of doubt, I'm on board with Deltas plan, now I can see wider support for it, and have had a few days to test it in my head, so retract my earlier posts in relation that (although I think I was right to ask the questions) It did feel wrong, but I did acknowledge I was unsure at the time

[Gandalf]

egduf, can you talk to me about Gandalf's play here vs the in-person games you two have played together? I asked earlier but it got lost in the shuffle.

He’s not particularly controversial and tends to go with the flow of town. If he figures something out he’s normally pretty sure of it and has good reasons, I don’t see him flip flop often. He plays more based of reads and interactions than numbers. This is why I thought the dismissal of plan was odd, because he didn’t have any strong reasons for going against what was popular opinion at the time.

I see. Is there anything alignment-specific that you can tell me about his behavior?
I ask because I gave him a townread early in the game for being an invested part of the mechanical solve conversation, but I sense he's dropped off quite a bit once we moved to real scumhunting, which bothers me.

Actually I should just ask him. But please do answer as well edfug.

Gandalf, where do you stand on suspects right now? Your recent posts look very noncommittal to me.

Since youve asked, as things stand now:

Delta Klim - town
Hectic - prob town. If you ignore the humour and just read the rest of it
Formerfish - not sure
Egduf - town
Menalque - poss scum?
EspressoPatronum - not sure
Most Serene - prob town
Tet - not sure
Oversoul - poss scum?
TiphaineDeath - town. Ive changed my mind on this
Iconeum - poss scum?
Carl Tuckerson - town

[Gandalf]

VOTE: ICONEUM

[Gandalf]

I can explain the progression on my vote. I was suspicious of Delta, coming up with a plan I couldnt follow that involved us all killing each other. No one was able to explain it to me in a way i could understand at the time, so i suggested Delta and Hectic jumping in to defend it might be scum? Obviously this is niaive, but then i've not played forum mafia. I now see popular support for the plan, and so Hectic jumping in to defend it now makes me more confident he is town. Thats the thought process.
I read Hectic's jokes, as jokes. Whilst he might not be shortlisted for an upcoming new comedian of the year award, the "slip" is so ridiculous for someone that can play, that i read it (and still do) as completely neutral. I did change my mind on TD, so i'll run back through your ISO Icon and see if l agree with any of your recent narrative

[Gandalf]

Gandalf's town for BBCoding and opposition and genuine lack of understanding of Delta's strat.

How can anyone even townread Gandalf slot? His progressional read on me doesn't make sense.

You don't end up scumreading somebody you largely share your reads with

I've had a look back through now Icon. You say we share reads, but I've only mentioned three people I think fairly confidently are town, one of which (Carl) you have as scum. I also suspect 3 people of being scum, one of which (Melanque) you have as town
You also have hectic as scum when i've got probable town. I dont see the jokes as relevent, and you feel very strongly about these.

I wouldnt say that I largely share your reads on that basis.

[Gandalf]

Just to check I'm following this correctly, when we are talking about us volunteering to shoot here, what this means is (if we agree say 2 "volunteers")

I roll a random %. With all 10 of us alive, if i get 1-20% I am a volunteer, if not, them I'm not.

Then just change it going forwards depending on the number of town alive at the time?

[Gandalf]

VOTE: unvote

[Gandalf]

VOTE: menalque

[Gandalf]

VOTE: menalque

[Gandalf]

I had Icon and Menalque as my top scumreads when i was pushed to set out where i was. So I thought it was an opportunity to get some more information from Menalque. We're all guessing at the moment, but leaving my vote on someone who others were unvoting seemed a bit pointless, plus i've called Edguf likely town (although I be interested to hear your scumreads @Edguf) and Hectic prob town (although i'm now undecided on Hectic either way, as i thought he might be town for niaive reasons) and they have their votes here

[Gandalf]

I had Icon and Menalque as my top scumreads when i was pushed to set out where i was. So I thought it was an opportunity to get some more information from Menalque. We're all guessing at the moment, but

leaving my vote on someone who others were unvoting seemed a bit pointless

, plus i've called Edguf likely town (although I be interested to hear your scumreads @Edguf) and Hectic prob town (although i'm now undecided on Hectic either way, as i thought he might be town for niaive reasons) and they have their votes here

The bolded bothers me because it's such an overtly tactical reason to vote. Like you are just trying to put your vote somewhere that can strand someone instead of voting your suspect.
Why do you think Menalque is mafia, and how did you intend to get information from Menalque without asking him any questions?

I gave my view on Menalque earlier in the game, which, to paraphrase was basically around his early instance Edguf is scum, his reasons for it, and comparing their ISOs at the time. Thank your for your kind compliments in respect of my tactical voting. Im working my way up to attempting to do a post with info in a spoiler, but might leave that until im back home

[Gandalf]

VOTE: Edguf I would be very interested in your scum reads (and updated town reads) prior to today ending please? I feel i have a few gaps in respect of my understanding of your view on the bigger picture currently

[Gandalf]

Gandalf get your head out of your ass, egduf isn’t scum here and unless you’re gonna case her your vote isn’t gonna help there bc you’re not getting her through

I think Edguf is town currently. I could do with a bit more info from her at this point though in respect of her view of the bigger picture now, before she knows what happens tonight though. I thought voting might ping an email or something as time is limited now

[Gandalf]

I'm insanely bad at reading Ico and was prepared to ignore him completely but A.) I agree Hectics "he can only be

No offense to anyone here but I think two players here at most have the ability to fake town trajectories as scum and one of them probably bleeds scum elsewhere in their play anyways.

Who are you meaning here Tet?

[Gandalf]

VOTE: UNVOTE

[Gandalf]

This is seriously weird game. Im doubtful if I'll be able to follow it reading it even when its finished

VOTE: Carl

[Gandalf]

The only people who should always barricade are the masons. If you're not, you can choose to risk yourself, but every shot we take is one more chance at accidentally killing a mason.

Very well I will leave it undecided in here what I will do

Consider it a 50/50 barricade/RIP GANDALF

I would obviously prefer you not to shoot me Icon. I think we’re friends now I’m really happy for the masons to put us in the same pair if you like? That way you get to shoot me anyway

[Gandalf]

Okay. I'm was mason with EP.

[Gandalf]

I'm back to work tomorrow and it's 9pm here in Southampton, my friend Manalaque

[Gandalf]

[REDACTED]

No further comment tonight. I'm mason with EP, I got Serene wrong in my call on the mason thread, so there is more to think about. I have to go to work tomorrow, but likely wont post further until 6.30pm tomorrow eve

[Gandalf]

Oh. I've seen the death list properly now. If you are going to do gambit, at least put some effort in...

[Gandalf]

Good game everyone. Thanks particularly to you Perisvul for running it, and putting up with the chaos I caused. I certainly added a bit of drama for livening up what otherwise might have been a bit of a dull d2. Thanks also Scum team for being so understanding about my fat fingers. Fair play to you all, and thank you. I'm heading to the Newbie queue for the next one...

Looking forward to reading the other chats, (just as soon as I can work out how to find them...)

[Gandalf]

Loved the meme's Icon