Mini Normal 2095 - Game Over!

[gobbledygook]

We should massclaim

[gobbledygook]

I’m a night 3 bodyguard. If my hunch is correct we have a certain number of other weak PRs possibly gated by a specific night. I think we can create great POE pools that makes this game super easy

Iconeum goes next.

[gobbledygook]

I have a specific number in mind forr the amount of claims that I willl reveal once that time comes. I will reveal more information about my hypothesis later tomorrow

[gobbledygook]

I have read 0% of this game. I was hoping that my massclaim would make it so I can focus my attention on people. Have we finished mass claim?

[gobbledygook]

On specific people

[gobbledygook]

It’s gonna take me a while to read that many pages. This is the biggest game I’ve replaced into.

[gobbledygook]

Well me and Ico are conftown then. That messes up so much though. What is with these normal game designwrs

[gobbledygook]

Does Ico have any clears? There may be something to salvage yet

[gobbledygook]

I will but I’m going to be efficient about it.

[gobbledygook]

Iconeum is the only one who I have experience with

[gobbledygook]

Ok. Well my plan was subverted by a very weird setup. Here is my thought process:

Upon seeing my almost useless role, I figured it would be best to massclaim. My role is designed to die, so I did not really care if I died earlier than I "should" given my ability. If I draw the nightkill either by protecting someone or simply drawing attention away from a player with a better grasp of the game I think I have accomplished my job.

Additionally, a mass claim creates two groups Power Roles and Vanilla Townies that make sorting by process of elimination much easier. I believe that most mini/micro normal games can have a fairly significant EV shift in town's favor through early mass claim. At the very least you are forcing scum to commit to a lie. They will either have to lie about their role, or about their targets. In some cases, they will lie about both. A mass claim can almost immediately catch a scum that chooses to lie about both. By forcing a scum to commit to one group, you can essentially guarantee that scum will be grouped in two ways:

Group 1
{PR pool, 1 scum}
{Vanilla pool, x scum}

or

Group 2
{PR pool, no scum}
{Vanilla pool, 1 scum + x scum}

If two scum decide to claim PR, it creates a massive setup balance that draws a lot of scrutiny. Most scum will not do this. It is possible, but almost certainly leads to a scum lynch on the day of mass claim. In my experience, most scum will claim according to Group 1. Normally, games will have 2-4 power roles. Typically, they have 3. Micro games I believe typically have 3 roles. That seems like a high concentration given the amount of players in the game, but scum in Micro games only need 3 mislynches which is really not that hard to achieve. In my earlier post requesting a massclaim, I hypothesized that there were 2 more town power roles other than myself. I denoted this in a crumb by deliberately misspelling 2 words. It IS possible that another town PR has not claimed and is just lying low. I give you until the end of day to claim if that is the case. Otherwise, all other claims will be treated as immediate scum claims.

Applying my theory to this game, it appears we are dealing with Group 2. I know I am town and my role would be worthless if it did not have at least another town PR to protect. From that, I can deduce that Iconeum is town. I have no idea why my predecessor apparently lied about the role. I expect it is because he wanted to put it to use in the future rather than revealing it to the scum, but I cannot be sure. I currently see no benefit in doing that, and well, the I can't put the cat in the bag now. This leaves me with the following pools based on game mechanics

alone

.

Town pool {Iconeum, gobbledygook}
Scum pool {Datisi, Klick, Lil Uzi Vert, Luca Blight, Tchill13}

This means that there are 2 scum in 5 players. I will be solely focusing my efforts on examining the players in the scum pool. If Iconeum is scum, he can have the win. This game would be stupid as essentially a 2/7 mountainous, which I believe is scumsided.

I will not really have enough time to do my normal schtick until the weekend, but these are my thoughts currently. I still have not read a single page of this game other than a few specific posts directed at me.

UNVOTE:

[gobbledygook]

Another of my games just ended so I have more time to devote here, but I still need to mostly wait until this weekend.

[gobbledygook]

If you guys kill before i can get into the game I’m going to be so upset for so many reasons

[gobbledygook]

It’s 6 days away and we have already done massclaim. That’s more than enough time? Why are you trying to rush things?

[gobbledygook]

Did you not see how I cracked the last game open? Give me time and this is a town win. Didn’t think I would need to explain this to you again xonsidering you came at me for the exact same reason that game

[gobbledygook]

It’s not that I can’t play dude it’s that I work 10 hours a day.

[gobbledygook]

So..? Everyone this game is active. It’s not going to be hard to find the votes

[gobbledygook]

also u were hardly responsible for cracking anything open

Yes, yes I was, but keep telling yourself that

[gobbledygook]

So..? Everyone this game is active. It’s not going to be hard to find the votes

if you'd actually be reading anything at all, you'd know this is not true and is a major part of the discussion

LUV is the only one from what I can tell. I think he siteflaked because his game has been filled but he hasn’t started it yet

[gobbledygook]

But I’m here now and I’m gonna be active? Like...

[gobbledygook]

GIVE ME TWO GODTURKEY DAYS FTS

[gobbledygook]

Ty

[gobbledygook]

I will be able to post something today. Didn't realize so many of you took weekend VLAs, so that makes sense why you all were flipping out

[gobbledygook]

Ok. So I have read a bit to ground myself, but I still have the majority of the game to read. I am on page like 20 and some random assortment of recent pages. I know, I know, you all are like "What the duck, Mister Turkey!? You spent all that time telling us to slow our roll and you only read

twenty

pages!?

This is the worst trade of all time!

"

My answer to that is that is half right. I have spent the majority of my time focusing on creating my (patent pending) activity flow charts. It is a very simple premise and it has been pretty reliable in the two games I have used it. Iconeum can attest to its success in our recent game together.

Basically, I make a chart that gives me a graphical representation of a player's activity in the game. I use it to see if a player's activity has trended towards lurking. I also use it to see if their activity corresponds to some other stimulus like posting more if they are currently being pressured. Why? I believe that universally, players do not like playing as mafia. I think the psychological reasoning stems from having the "puzzle" of the game solved for you already. And stress. Lots and lots of stress. Humans do not like stress. Why do you think procrastination is such an issue? Playing as mafia is stressful. Either way, I think people

in general

dislike playing mafia which in turn causes people to be less active in games.

I know that some players like to play mafia, or prefer to play mafia, and those players will defeat this tool. I acknowledge that. I have started a little folder of players who are widely known to like playing mafia, or players that I have run into that I know like to play mafia, so that I know to adjust the weight I gave to this tool when examining their play. None of the players I currently have on my list are in this game.

I know that some players are not active players. My response to that is this. Those players may not have a positive trendline, but they will not have a hugely negative trendline either.

I also know that sometimes people get busy and just cannot be as active as they once were in the game. That is a given that there will be some false positives. But, that's just the rule of the game. Moreover, those types of activity inhibitors are usually announced by the players in the game. I find scum are less likely to publicly announce those types of inhibitors, for whatever reason.

Now, I know this tool isn't the end all, be all. But it has thus far pointed me in the right direction. It makes me a more efficient scumhunter by focusing my energy on players more likely to be scum. That's where I think its usefulness lies.

---

Now onto the analysis. I examined the activity flow of every slot that is currently alive, including replacements. I did everyone for full transparency. So you can better understand, I recorded the number of posts a player made from the start of the game (or their replacement into the game) until September 3 when I joined. I do not go beyond the date I joined because that may skew the data if players knew my schtick.The only slots with negative trendlines are {Billy/LUV, Datisi, Almost50}. Since I know I am town and the setup tells us I am town and from what I gathered Almost apparently ragequit, I am going to say that Almost's trendline is more due to emotions rather than his alignment. More on Billy/LUV and Datisi in a moment.

The players with the most positive trendlines are Tchill13 and Klick. This makes sense to me. I feel like out of the players recently talking, Tchill13 and Klick are probably the towniest. I have some reservations about Klick that I will get into later once I more thoroughly read, but right now, I am going to safely consider them more than likely town.

Iconeum and Luca Blight barely have positive trendlines. Since Iconeum is a claimed PR and my role's existence would be almost completely redundant without another PR, Iconeum is town and I will not go into further wasting effort trying to examine him. As I said earlier, I think he is town for setup reasons and he can have the win if he is scum (CFJ can have my scorn in that event, as well).

Back to Billy/LUV and Datisi. As I said, these two slots have negative trendlines. I examined why the trendline was negative and both players have a particular pattern. They posted a lot early in their time playing and have not (recently) matched that volume of posting.

- LUV posted a lot after he replaced in (26 posts in one day), but hasn't posted more than 8 times a single day after that. He has the most 0 post days of anyone in the game as well. With the majority of his 0-days coming immediately after his large post day. Caveat: The "0 posts day" metric is a useful metric as well because that can help show a low post count player is not very active despite having a neutral or positive activity flow by virtue of posting

slightly

more later in the game.

- Billy did not follow this pattern, but he did have a negative trendline. When two players in the same slot follow the same activity flow, that is generally an indication that slot is at the very least Not Fun. What would make a VT slot Not Fun? It being mafia (see reasons above why scum is Not Fun).

- Datisi's posted a lot during a 4 day period (Aug 20, 21, 22, 23) wherein she posted 26, 33, 21, and 34 posts respectively. Since that time, the highest post count that Datisi has reached was 12 posts on September 3. I looked into why Datisi would be more active specifically during that 4 day weekend because that is slightly different than LUV's replacement into the game and subsequent catch-up barrage that artificially inflated his post count. During that 4-day stretch, Datisi was being highly pressured. She was the leading wagon for a good portion of it and her wagon maintained presence for almost the entirety of that time period. Once that wagon dissipated, so did Datisi's activity. That is scummy to me because it looks like a scum player doing

just

enough to tread water so to speak.

For these reasons, I believe this should be our kill order {LUV, Datisi, Luca Blight, Klick, Tchill13} with the scum team more than likely being LUV/Datisi.

VOTE: LUV

[gobbledygook]

My reservations about Klick are that he is taking very strong stances on players that others want to remove from the game. That makes me think he could possibly be saving those players as fodder for later, but that feeling is almost entirely gut. I haven't read enough to back up that assertion. I will be posting LUV (Billy) and Datisi's activity flows for you to see what I am talking about. Upon request I can post other activity flows since I made one for everyone, but it takes a bit of time to create in imgur, so I will only do the others by request.

[gobbledygook]

Spoiler: Activity Flow

Datisi


LUV


Billy

[gobbledygook]

You start with the premise that people think being town is more fun than being scum, but there's not sufficient evidence that that's true for any decent majority of players (or for the players in this game).

Billy's progression makes a good amount of sense considering his activity trailed off when Alisae came in and rocketed the activity up. Ignoring the tail end, his progression is positive.

That is true, for the most part. But you can’t really quantify “fun” just like you can’t quantify “happiness”. That’s why I look at activity as a side effect/symptom of a person having fun.

Without going into rule breaking territory, Billy seemed to replace/flake out of this game for reasons other than being able to keep up. It is true that if you ignore the end of Billy’s stay here in the game he would have a positive trendline. But I’m not sure I understand why we are doing that? What does Alisae have to do with affecting Billy’s activity?

Tchill, I didn’t mean to come off as arrogant or a knowitall yesterday. Truthfully, I would have been happy with any kill as long as it wasn’t me or Iconeum. Obviously I have strong preferences for specific players in the scumpool, but if you guys had wagoned and killed someone while I was busy, as long as they were in the scum pool, I wouldn’t have cried necessarily.

Why do you want Datisi first before LUV?

[gobbledygook]

Klick, I take it you like to play as scum? Or at least have fun playing as scum?

[gobbledygook]

I was replying to your assertion that there’s no sufficient evidence for the correlation. Just because there isn’t sufficient evidence for it, doesn’t invalidate the correlation. You have to start somewhere.

Also, let’s just say I don’t believe Billy’s replace out was totally genuine in light of other public actions he’s made around the site. That’s all I’m gonna say on that front. The very first scum I caught used the same reasoning you’re using to say that I was wrong.

[gobbledygook]

I see your hyperbole, but you saying there’s no correlation to activity is akin to sticking your head in the sand. Why do things like Lynch All Lurkers exist? Why do people generally look down upon lurking or coasting?

[gobbledygook]

Eh. I think it’s a great policy. It’s better than Lynch All Liars at least. I also think there’s more to it than just because it stalls games. Begs the question, why do people lurk? Because they aren’t enjoying the game. Why aren’t they enjoying the game? Because they are possibly scum.

Who is your top scumread right now Klick?

[gobbledygook]

Reading again

[gobbledygook]

Probably path of least resistance for some he already sees as having high scum equity, but I’ll let him answer

[gobbledygook]

Page 50ish

[gobbledygook]

If you flip town, my options will be further limited. With that and whatever result Icon gets, I feel much better about sorting between ~3 slots tomorrow than 5 today.

Which three slots are you talking about here?

[gobbledygook]

Ok. I caught up to like page 75.

Datisi and Klick had the worst votes on the Flippy wagon. The way Klick handled that end of day wagon gives him strong scum equity in my mind. Datisi's vote also seems like self preservation and it swung the momentum onto Flippy. If there's anything that anyone wants me to look over, please let me know. I'm not going to spam the thread though especially when we are so close to deadline and really just need to be focusing our efforts.

That being said, I think this is the correct play for today.

VOTE: Datisi

[gobbledygook]

Tchill do we have a quasi mind meld?

[gobbledygook]

I don’t think finding buddies is all that important when we haven’t even found one scum. That said, I think if Luv flips red, Klick is the buddy. I’m not sure if Datisi flips red.

[gobbledygook]

Do we have the votes for a ql?

[gobbledygook]

That’s what it sounded like Tchill wanted. Plus I’m pretty sure I have the scum nailed down to {Datisi, Klick, Luv} so I’m personally happy with day ending whenever

[gobbledygook]

Why would we nolynch exactly...?

[gobbledygook]

Icon is right that I normally would have been a better turkey and read everything quicker but I’ve been working a lot and my commutes have been stupid ridiculous (2 hours each way) so it drains my desire to do anything other than sleep recently.

[gobbledygook]

Today my commute is only ONE hour each way. Lucky me, but that will give me some time to read everything that’s recently been posted. Something I’ve been mulling over is the Flippy wagon and who was on it. It has to have scum on it with how quickly it built up. But that leaves me in a predicament because I’m not sure that both scum would be on it.

[gobbledygook]

I would say that Datisi/LUV is my strongest pick for the scumteam, but if I am wrong about one of them then it is Klick. Driving home, but from what I remember they have been throwing out townreads on one another and given the game state and my own reads I find that peculiar.

[gobbledygook]

I mean you are included in that too, Datisi. I thought I read that you townread Klick iirc

[gobbledygook]

Hmm.. Maybe Datisi is town afterall.

VOTE: LUV

This is L-1

[gobbledygook]

Gonna be real honest, just want a kill so I know which way to analyze the Day 1 wagon. Would prefer Datisi since she was on the wagon, but LUV's reasoning for voting me is bad and survivalistic in my opinion.

[gobbledygook]

No, I wouldn’t have. I would have said that’s a bus instead.

[gobbledygook]

Is that team still purely based on activity? Because I don't think either of me and LUV have ever Townread each other.

Yeah. I’m thinking I’m putting too much weight into Klick’s hard stances and it’s skewing what each one of you is doing.

[gobbledygook]

Yeah I’ve been fooled twilight by scum, but I would have rathered lUV

If you’re town datisi I will carry on your will

[gobbledygook]

You people are seriously crazy if you still think I’m scum. Just because you don’t understand how I play or agree with the style doesn’t mean I’m scum.

[gobbledygook]

I'm gonna need some DF to roast that flambe

[gobbledygook]

Whose got the mail

[gobbledygook]

Tchill, are you willing to Lynch Gobble today?

Dude you need to see outside your tunnel

[gobbledygook]

Question for Gobble: from the tone of your posts you seem to believe I’m Town. Can you confirm whether this is the case?

Yes, this is the case. Based off Datisi flip, I think the team is LUV + Klick. In hindsight, this team looks fairly obvious. I'm just waiting for the mail to get to put a bow on the game.

[gobbledygook]

I think you have been pretty proactive the entire game and willing to challenge your own reads and beliefs repeatedly. I really don’t think scum would openly flip flop the way you are. Maybe a specific type of player would. You might be that type of player, I just don’t know, but the vibe I get from you isn’t one that’s changing their opinions to change them. It’s cha going their opinions in light of new analysis or information. I’ve felt that you were pretty town since I replaced in. It’s possible you’re just a deepwolf and I’m totally fooled but if that’s the case then whatever, we probably lose anyway.

Luca is like you-lite. I think he was the first one to really call me out and come up with ass conspiracy theories. I don’t think scum do that. Scum know I’m telling the truth despite how absurd it is. They just accept things. Lica very much does not accept things. I think that suspicion is more likely town than not.

[gobbledygook]

I play this game with the idea that I’m gonna bat .500. I look at everything as more likely or not more likely because I think it really helps you understand patterns in person’s actions.

[gobbledygook]

Dang you guys posted a lot in the middle of the night. Are you both European?

Klick confscum with that claim though

[gobbledygook]

You are fakeclaiming that you received the mail in order to justify not getting killed.

[gobbledygook]

I actually am going to need to go VLA for this weekend unfortunately due to work. I will try to address toDay's posts when periodically over the weekend.

V/LA until Tuesday

[gobbledygook]

What makes that a great find?

[gobbledygook]

It’s Icon’s avatar which is what makes me think the specific wording that Klick used suspect. It’s very generic and I feel like Icon would not have been generic.

[gobbledygook]

I will case when I get back Tuesday. Luv I already thought I explained but it is mainly activity plus the immediate omgus and poop reasoning to scumread me

[gobbledygook]

Rawr is not generic, so no but I didn’t see you say rawr or anything like that in your post

[gobbledygook]

The phrase in question is “hey it’s me mr dragonite” which is generic considering his avatar and doesn’t contain a random word. Rawr is a random word that hadn’t been said in the thread. You could plausibly make up the draongite bit based off what was posted in the thread

[gobbledygook]

Because you die without it? You need to give the town a reason to townread you and what better way than to “confirm yourself as town” via the mailman.

[gobbledygook]

That doesn’t seem that hard to think of? You’re acting like that’s such a drastic inpossibility

[gobbledygook]

I admit I may be tunneling but I know I’m town and have pretty strong townread on Tchill and a town read on Luca. By POE it is you and Luv

[gobbledygook]

Yes you could be town yes tchill could be scum yes lica could be scum. I realize that. But I think it’s more likely you made a hailmary with this icon thing

[gobbledygook]

Things have settled down for me so I can post tonight.

[gobbledygook]

Since this page caught my eye, Tchill you’re actually maintaining you’re a tracker? I thought that was a claim a la Alisae

[gobbledygook]

Well there goes my Klick LUV scum team in that case.

[gobbledygook]

Cluck. That means I was wrong about one of Tchill and Luca. This explains the crossvotes.

[gobbledygook]

Honestly no idea. Gut says Tchill because I don’t think his claim is true, but I want to see his answer. I actually hate being in this position because it throws all my associative reads out of whack.

[gobbledygook]

See. That’s what I’m stuck on. It’s why I mentioned my associative reads being messed up. I don’t really understand why Tchill claimed and is continuing to claim Tracker.

[gobbledygook]

Can you quote that post where you said that Tchill?

[gobbledygook]

Why didn't you crumb?

[gobbledygook]

I guess I’m most confused because the claim came out of nowhere, you claim it as a guilty, and yet you are not currently voting LUV. The claim and the play do not match up, especially as you noted you were harping on Iconeum for not crumbing. In that moment, I would expect you to start crumbing, but you’re saying you didn’t. So you deliberately chose that despite calling out the behavior elsewhere as anti town.

You see how that’s cause for concern and doesn’t make sense?

[gobbledygook]

One game where there were two mafia goons and two weaker town PR's

does not

make it a fact at all that there can't be one Town PR in this game.

The mod would likely treat it similarly given they are both 9p games and can both contain similar roles.

And what about the apparent fact that Town cannot have 3 PR's in a 9p game? Especially when one is as strong as a Town loyal Mailman and one is another investigative in an even night Tracker?

Also given Mafia don't have RB, which would make sense when dealing with two investigatives and one protective?

I think, when weighing everything up, it's far more likely to have one PR than three in this game, especially when the two non-confirmed PR claims are both sketchy as fuck with nothing to back them up, and coming from players who are very likely to be a scumteam.

I feel like you’re making a lot of assumptions about the setup in this post.

[gobbledygook]

I think it is wrong to assume that a micro cannot have 3 power roles. Normally, that is the balance. I think it is also wrong to assume the scum team doesnt have a roleblocker because that seems to be the de facto scum power role these days.

[gobbledygook]

There’s been a few but I’ll look them up later this evening

[gobbledygook]

Probably around 7pm est

[gobbledygook]

Ok. Now I see what you're saying. So does this mean that you think both Tchill and I are scum?

[gobbledygook]

Like it just is weird that you both are now crossvoting, but the fact that no hammer has fallen makes me think it is where we should vote today

[gobbledygook]

I just hate the fact that I am now stuck in this situation because I had a strong town read on Tchill and a townread on you Luca. But this means I was wrong about one of them.

[gobbledygook]

I’m here and will be reading up

[gobbledygook]

Too tired to actually synthesize any thoughts on this. Will try again tomorrow morning at between 6 and 8:30 am

[gobbledygook]

I am a terrible person, but I had too much fermented grape juice last night to focus on this. I will be here tonight after work so around like 7pm est (my time). I think first and foremost I need to look at wagon analysis now that I have Klick town and also 50/50 between Tchill and Luca. I will post my results once I'm done with that. Does anyone have any pressing questions for me or any interactions they want me to focus on specifically?

[gobbledygook]

I believe Tchill is L-1, not hammering to show me town.
Klick you’re probably right it has a negative trendline. I think I’m normally at a slightly negative trendline just naturally

[gobbledygook]

VOTE: Tchill

Hammering now because I really just do not believe the claim. I’m sorry if this means we lose town. But I think Luv is trying for some last minute credit.

[gobbledygook]

Good game everyone! Town kept me on the edge of my seat the whole time!

[gobbledygook]

I was pleasantly surprised when he stuck with that claim today. I figured he was trying to draw the nightkill over Icon.

[gobbledygook]

No. I just like fakeclaiming. To be honest, I replaced in to die. I thought Almost50s replace out looked really scummy to me.

[gobbledygook]

I don’t want to point the blame, but I do think town kills correctly today if Tchill does not fakeclaim. Still not sure they win, but at least they make it to 3P LyLo.

I actually had so many gambits ready for this game once Datisi was killed. I was setting up for a Commuter claim. I was going to no kill after LUV died because it seemed like a Luca or Klick kill pointed in my direction. Then I was going to use the no kill as proof of my claim.

I was also setting up to fakeclaim I received the mail instead of Klick, but then Klick looked like he was townreading me so I backed off from that one. I wish I could say I did a lot but this was more town losing the game for itself than the scum winning the game for themselves.

[gobbledygook]

I even gave you people a chart to show that we needed to kill the lurkers (myself I closed).

[gobbledygook]

So many salt shakers in here angry that I got to open wolf.

[gobbledygook]

chemist just release the dead pt lmao

I thought I did?

Lemme double-check that I did it right b/c I'm really bad with PT perms

You released it.

[gobbledygook]

>we should massclaim
> I’m a night 3 bodyguard. If my hunch is correct we have a certain number of other weak PRs possibly gated by a specific night. I think we can create great POE pools that makes this game super easy

Iconeum goes next.

For the record, I fully believe in the logic behind this post. It’s why I fakeclaimed so I could “confirm” myself as town and we could hunt in the VTs where all my mislynches were.

[gobbledygook]

So many salt shakers in here angry that I got to open wolf.

Eh. Great job lurking to a win when a VT was practically playing anti town.

I only actually started lurking when Luca and you cross voted and I was only lurking because LUV has a weird schedule and impossible to coordinate hammer with. I was truthfully very busy from Thursday to Tuesday.

[gobbledygook]

u should have been turbo lynched for that I stg

I thought I was too. Then I had to effort. :/

[gobbledygook]

You were a good mod! Just more frequent vote counts I would say. It’s hard because this game was pretty active. If you had a slower game then the amount of vote counts would have been perfect.

[gobbledygook]

lol I appreciate that Ali

See y’all in the next game!

[gobbledygook]

The problem tchill is that you could have the best reads in the world but it doesn’t mean anything if you can’t will people together.

I think this is a problem a lot of good players have. They become too unwilling to work with town that they get isolated and it spirals them further and further into isolation across games.

[gobbledygook]

Why are you so aggro over an Internet game?