Newbie 1953 | Zooborns IV | Game Over

[Mr Oobsy]

Yesterday this thread was empty. Today it's 4 pages long and someone's already accused me of being too quiet. HA.

Anyway, I am a

Vanilla Townie

, and I've been keeping track of votes and less formal accusations. I've not been able to meaningfully separate the other players into teams of 6 and 2 based on this evidence. However, I have concluded the following:

If

Farren

is

Mafia

,

skitter30

and

NorwegianBoyEE

are both

Town

.

But if either

skitter30

or

NorwegianBoyEE

are

Mafia

,

Farren

is

Town

.

My reasoning for this is the fact that votes alone, as well as accusations alone, both independently suggest it. I hope to be vindicated by future developments.

[Mr Oobsy]

Regarding my thoughts on those 4 people

Farren

listed, all I am confident adding at this point is that I strongly believe

Leucosticte

to be

Town

. His wordy posts sound quite sincere, as opposed to rambling. If it were all an act, something would have stuck out by now.

Regarding how I came to the conclusion in my previous post, I simply separated players into 2 teams based on whether one voted against the other. I also did this based on informal accusations. The teams indicated by votes contradicted those indicated by mere accusations. But the aspects where they did both agree, is what I based my conclusion on. It felt like taking the intersection of a Venn diagram, you know? Well technically, more like taking the overlapping portion of a pair of circles.

[Mr Oobsy]

I want

Dyrenz

to address the fact he used his first post to unironically vote

Jamelia

for being quiet.

[Mr Oobsy]

I want to wait for

Dyrenz

' response before I actually call someone suspicious. In the meantime I am happy to wait 10 IRL days to gather as much information as possible.

[Mr Oobsy]

I judge

Leucostictie

,

Jamelia

, and myself to be

Town

. Sadly the odds are still against me hitting a scum with a random vote at this point, so I will try to narrow down at least one additional player between now and my next post.

[Mr Oobsy]

I'm going to go ahead and add

Dyrenz

to my

Town

list which already includes

Leucostictie

and

Jamelia

.

Part of the reason is his

"detective work"

(as

Chemist1422

put it).

Micc

is complaining about it being suspicious for being an

"analysis without conclusion"

but I admit I've had the urge to post something similar myself. I've refrained only because my philosophy is

"too much info is as good as no info"

, especially if that info is extremely inconclusive.

For the record I have no intent to vote today.

[Mr Oobsy]

Why don't I intend to vote today? In my opinion, tonight's kill will give us enough information to guarantee a

Mafia

lynch tomorrow. So why risk lynching a

Townie

today when we're lynching half the

Mafia

tomorrow regardless?

skitter30

, why do you think I'm

Town

? And why do you think

Leucostictie

is

Town

? Lastly, why do you think

farren

is suspicious?

[Mr Oobsy]

The reason I think

Jamelia

is

Town

is this post:

So I read through everything and tried analyzing as much as possible. My brain actually hurts from trying to form opinion's of scuminess so, yeah. LOL

I agree with the opinion that Leucostictie is pretty neutral, but I wouldn't agree that he is auto-town or whatever. I appreciate the indepth analysis but I found at times the wording of how townspeople should act to be almost a: "I think this is the way Town in this game should play!" versus "I am town, but I wouldn't be surprised if other Town played this way".

I personally don't blame anyone for voting for someone based on inactivity, including Dyrenz' back on Page 2. He hasn't been on since I've started talking and stuff. I think that voting for someone based on inactivity when I personally haven't seen any overt scuminess makes sense?

That's all I really have right now. This is fun! LOL

It feels genuine. That's all.

I think

skitter30

's post explaining why he thinks I'm

Town

is suspicious:

i feel like scum kinda instinctively understands that to facilitate mislynches, they need to vote. Kinda doubt that scum abdicate that responsibility. They need 5 townies dead, and by leaving it all to nks, the game will take double as long.

This implies drawing the game out is a good thing, based on the fact

Mafia

do not want it. If

Mafia

don't want it,

Town

should want it. The longer the game, the more informed our votes can be.

So why does

skitter30

, having just explained why not lynching hurts

Mafia

, encourage me to try to lynch someone:

All of that being said you should be voting

I don't intend to engage in a debate about the meta, but I have a gripe with

skitter30

contradicting herself.

I also have a problem with

Farren

casting suspicion on

Jamelia

, since again, I felt their posts were extremely sincere.

[Mr Oobsy]

Very interesting response.

- Trying to form opinions of "scuminess" when one is scum is arguably more difficult than trying to form opinions of "scuminess" when one is town.

I agree. And I see one reason you haven't called me

Town

is probably because I'm making plenty of opinions about who is

Town

but none about who is

Mafia

. As I've already indicated, I don't intend to vote until tomorrow. And I won't accuse someone of being

Mafia

without voting them.

I agree with the opinion that Leucostictie is pretty neutral, but I wouldn't agree that he is auto-town or whatever.

- Not wanting to think Leucosticte is auto-town: scum would want to keep their options open; the more potential mislynches, the better.

That line particularly irked me. And the more I look at it, the more it does. So I will remove

Jamelia

from my

Town

list.

- Not wanting to blame people for voting on inactivity. Effectively defending people - could be defending a scumpartner, if the scumpartner's vote falls into this category.

One thought I had earlier, but never expressed, was this: Wouldn't it be comical if the reason (inactive)

Dyrenz

had voted

Jamelia

(for being inactive) was he was counting on someone calling out the irony as a cover for the fact they are both

Mafia

?

[Mr Oobsy]

Do you have another example of a sincere post from Jamelia - that specifically shows a town mindset?

Yes, this one:

I don’t necessarily think Chemist’s post was scummy, and with the bandwagon of people (way more than the majority) thinking so, I guess I’m more inclined to think he is town sided?

I keep re-reading it waiting to be like oh yeah, that was super scummy. But it wasn’t to me

Reason being, at the time it was posted, it was my thoughts exactly. I didn't think Chemist's vote was suspicious, I thought it was a joke. And when everyone complained about it, I also went back and reread it and found nothing suspicious about it.

I will put

Jamelia

back on my

Town

list. That previous theory about him and

Dyrenz

doesn't hold enough weight to me at the moment. Although it is still funny.

[Mr Oobsy]

If nothing else suspicious comes up before the deadline closes in, i believe we should base the lynch on inactivity, anyone who isn't participating or is generally unhelpful might either be lurking mafia or a less useful townie member. Even if it's a mislynch, their confirmed role can be used in conjunction with text analysis to contextualize association tells.

"Even if it's a mislynch,"

No.

There would be no bright side to a mislynch based on inactivity. The least active player is least likely to have association tells. If they are

Town

you learn nothing.

[Mr Oobsy]

VOTE: Leucosticte

[Mr Oobsy]

Leucosticte

is probably a town vanilla tbh but in the absence of any major scumtells, I don't have a problem with pushing him overboard if he's going to be a liability; we need the final group of players to be people whose judgment we can rely on

[Mr Oobsy]

I just remembered we can vote for no lynch. Please join me everyone!

VOTE: NO LYNCH

[Mr Oobsy]

There's nothing to be gleaned from random votes. Everyone's trying to find meaning where there cannot possibly be any. Then arguing about the non-existant meaning they think they found. Without power roles sharing clues nobody can hope to accomplish anything but random lynch and hope they flip

Mafia

.

UNVOTE: Leucosticte
VOTE: Farren

[Mr Oobsy]

Votes made, at least some of them anyway, are calculated and based on intuition/hunches.

Show me one.

[Mr Oobsy]

because scum can win the game by no lynching each day and killing a townie each night. it'll take like five phases i think for them to win, but it'll happen eventually - much slower than if they got some mislynches along the way

in contrast, if town doesn't lynch, they have no way of removing scum from the game
there's literally no way to win by constantly no lynching

We don't need to lynch a

Town

for clues because a

Town

is dying tonight regardless. You're implying we would lynch a

Mafia

but the odds are overwhelmingly against that.

[Mr Oobsy]

Actually, since your almost certainly planning to counter with something related to information from power roles

Yes, I was.

Lynching on day 1 is like having a free cop shot.

It's not a free cop shot. It costs a player's life. The life of a player who is probably

Town

.

We don't need to lynch

How do you propose we win this game?

Start lynching tomorrow. Did you really think I was asking everyone to go the entire game without lynching anyone ever?

Love the usage of colored fonts and bolded names, makes his posts easy to read through.

Thanks. I was hoping they made my posts easier to read, but wasn't sure it had the intended effect until you confirmed it.

[Mr Oobsy]

Oobsy, how come you never addressed the part of my post where I talk about the game going from 3 to 2 mislynches regardless of a day 1 lynch happening or not?

Because I gave up trying to understand. It's as if you're implying you could mathematically prove

Town

loses nothing by lynching one of their own today.

The community you learned the game from balances games a lot differently than this site. You’re advocating for a game with heavy emphasis on nighttime play while this site places a heavy emphasis on daytime play. In general, our games don’t have as many PR’s as I’m assuming your used to. There will not be enough information from PR’s to solve the game entirely on night actions.

I don't expect to solve the game with nothing by clues shared by power roles. But I don't expect to gain an advantage over

Mafia

with a random Day 1 lynch either.

[Mr Oobsy]

Correcting a confusing typo in my previous post:

I don't expect to solve the game with nothing

by

but

clues shared by power roles.

[Mr Oobsy]

Night 3 Town death > 2 vs 2 > Game Over

Unless someone gets healed.

Also, you seem to be willing to use non PR supplied information to decide on a lynch Day 2 but not Day 1. I don't understand what the difference is?

If I ever seemed willing to consider today's posts tomorrow, it was because I was allowing for the possibility of some egregious slip-up that would become obvious in retrospect of the nightkill. For now, I will consider today's votes as meaningless. Likewise for the discussion surrounding them.

[Mr Oobsy]

Unless someone gets healed.

Sure if someone gets healed you gain half a day. If two people get healed you gain another half day and end up back where you started.

Interesting, you're right. But what if someone gets healed

tonight

? That would give

Town

an extra day, correct?

By the way, I do appreciate how you proved that counter-intuitive concept to me. It was exactly the sort of response I was hoping for.

I will consider today's votes as meaningless. Likewise for the discussion surrounding them.

What's the point if even playing the game then?

I retract that in light of

Dyrenz

'

Friendly Neighbor

claim.

Eh, fuck it.

I'm Town Friendly Neighbor so we're obviously in B
There's a Mafia Rolecop, guaranteed.
Other PR is Tracker or Jailkeeper. Speculating this is hardly inappropriate since they're the only 2 options given my own role.

Jeez, Day 1 PR. Good man! This should be a staple of every match. I've been so lonely as the only claim, and if anyone disagrees with our decision they are just a bunch of monkeys

By the way, if my brevity comes off as rude or disinterested, it was not my intention to snub Micc. I may look grumpy on the outside, but I assure you I am adorable on the inside. Just trying to help you understand what type of player I am.

[Mr Oobsy]

Um...did you read my PR claim? If you are trusting me, you would know there is no doctor in this game. Nobody's getting healed. Also, claiming VT is not really a claim IMO, just a denial of PR/scum role. Anybody you wanna lynch?

You didn't notice a single one of the

7

Detective Pikachu

references I made in my previous post? I was trying to communicate a secret message to you.

Thanks for clarifying there is no

Doctor

in this game if your claim is true. I hadn't noticed until now that the existence of a

Mafia Rolecop

implies no

Mafia Roleblocker

, because there are only

2

Mafia

and

1

must be a

Goon

.

I'll figure out who to vote by my next post.

[Mr Oobsy]

VOTE: Jamelia

I'm ashamed to say I haven't actually seen the movie

LOL.

[Mr Oobsy]

Because

Dyrenz

voted him.

[Mr Oobsy]

I voted with

Dyrenz

because he is practically confirmed

Town

. There was nobody in particular I wanted to vote, so voting with him makes my vote immune to suspicion. Since if anyone were to suspect I were

Mafia

encouraging

Dyrenz

to mislynch, they could test me by having

Dyrenz

change his vote to see if I followed it.

But after reading the

NewbScum Greeting Tell

thread I have decided to vote

Chemist1422

based on this:

Newbie scum players are twice as likely to greet the game in their first post as Newbie town players are.

hi

UNVOTE: Jamelia
VOTE: Chemist1422

[Mr Oobsy]

My mistake. That leaves

Jamelia

and

NorwegianboyEE

:

Hi!

Hello friends.

If you read the thread I linked, it's clear the tell is specifically a greeting not explicitly directed at players. Only

Jamelia

's greeting fits that criterion.

UNVOTE: Chemist1422
VOTE: Jamelia

[Mr Oobsy]

That argument is total bullcrap lmao.

The thesis of the thread is bullcrap, or my interpretation of it?

[Mr Oobsy]

Long story short, I did some math and learned

Dyrenz

is right about the tell not being reliable enough to apply in our current situation.

[Mr Oobsy]

I got lynched for that as town in my first game

I just checked and this is true. LOL.

[Mr Oobsy]

I know

Dyrenz

is

Town

because he claimed an extremely confirmable class. If he lied, we'd know tomorrow.

I know

Leucosticte

is

Town

because the 4 threads he's started during this game demonstrate a sincere effort to learn the best way to play

Town

:

• If lynching disallowed D1, even # of players favors town?
  
• "We'd be much more likely to kill a townie than a scum"
  
• How much of this game is just luck?
  
• Is it bad to lynch truly randomly during RVS?

If you're saying your motive is to avoid suspicion, that's a scummy mindset.

I don't find anyone suspicious, so the typical motive of

"I'm voting because I think they're

Mafia

"

is not an option for me. I am making the most of my vote.

[Mr Oobsy]

I did not seek out that evidence, I stumbled upon it. I can't help but make a read off it and I see no rule prohibiting me from sharing it.

[Mr Oobsy]

Let's leave this up to the moderator.

[Mr Oobsy]

VOTE: NorwegianboyEE

[Mr Oobsy]

Lies and deceit!

[Mr Oobsy]

I hammered

NorwegianBoyEE

because I knew he wasn't a power role. I knew he wasn't a power role because I am the last power role. I am

Town Tracker

, and I left a breadcrumb in my first post:

I am a

Vanilla Townie

, and I've been keeping track

I tried to secretly communicate this to

Dyrenz

using

Detective Pikachu

references, since his avatar is

Detective Pikachu

:

it was not my intention to snub Micc. I may look grumpy on the outside, but I assure you I am adorable on the inside. Just trying to help you understand what type of player I am.

Snubbull? He may look grumpy on the outside, but i assure you he is adorable on the inside.

I was trying to get

Dyrenz

to realize I was insinuating I am a dog, because the wiki illustrates my role as a bloodhound. I knew that even if I failed, I would have at least left another breadcrumb.

The main reason I fake-claimed

Vanilla Townie

was simply to avoid being nightkilled. Last night I followed

skitter30

and he targeted nobody. I do not believe

Mafia

would have risked targeting someone who had a

50%

chance of being protected by a

Jailkeeper

, so I must conclude that somehow

Mafia

suspected I was likely

Tracker

, either from my breadcrumbs or by how convinced I was that

Dyrenz

was really

Friendly Neighbor

.

Since successfully killing

Dyrenz

would further confirm to the

Mafia

I am

Tracker

not

Jailkeeper

, they would be reluctant to vote me, since

Town

would try to lynch me by themselves anyway.

Micc

and

Farren

voted for me.

skitter30

did not target anyone last night. I still believe

Leucosticte

is

Town

.

That means

Chemist1422

and

Jamelia

are

Mafia

.

In memory of

Dyrenz

, I choose to lynch

Jamelia

before

Chemist1422

, since that was his choice:

VOTE: Jamelia

Oobsy's progression on Leucosticte is just bizarre. How do you go from sincerity to voting with a parroted line back to sincerity again?

I thought the reason he gave for voting me was dumb and applied equally to him as it did to me. So, I voted him back and used his own reasoning against him (literally). I am surprised he never noticed I copied and pasted his own words.

[Mr Oobsy]

I checked this thread today several times without posting because I was waiting to see who would vote me.

[Mr Oobsy]

NorwegianBoyEE

was voted for basically no reason. Claiming

Vanilla Townie

would not have convinced anyone to unvote, and I was ready for day to end. I saw an opportunity to make myself so suspicious that I would not be nightkilled, while simultaneously ending the day so I could not be lynched, so I took it.

Yes, it's true that you could theoretically be a

Mafia Role Cop

who targeted nobody. But I doubt it.

Since successfully killing Dyrenz would further confirm to the Mafia I am Tracker

And i'm not sure i follow this logic

I meant if

Mafia

suspected that I hinted I was

Tracker

, the fact

Dyrenz

was not jailed has confirmed their suspicions (since the last power role had to be either

Jailkeeper

or

Tracker

). So they would deliberately not vote me, predicting I am so suspicious that

Town

would vote me by themselves, and that I would then claim

Tracker

, and then get unvoted, and they could then point out that they did not vote me, gaining credibility for themselves.

[Mr Oobsy]

Mafia

didn't vote me because they knew I was

Tracker

, correctly predicting

Micc

and

Farren

would vote me, hoping to exploit this fact to make themselves look less suspicious than

Micc

and

Farren

. That's the logic.

[Mr Oobsy]

• Mr Oobsy
  
  
• skitter30
  
  
• Leucosticte1
  
  
• Farren
  
  
• Micc
  
  
• Chemist1422
  
  
• Jamelia

[Mr Oobsy]

I obviously sense some sort of scumminess from Oobsy, since they’re voting for me.

If I weren't actually

Tracker

the real one would have counter-claimed me, since that guarantees a

Mafia

gets lynched with only

50%

chance a

Town

also gets lynched.

Micc

, vote

Jamelia

. I'm not voting

chemist1422

unless you promise to self-hammer if he's

Town

, or give a better reason than

"a real brief review of some ISO's"

.

[Mr Oobsy]

Are you suggesting I might be

Mafia

or not?

VOTE: chemist1422

[Mr Oobsy]

I would be shocked if the Mafia picked up on your breadcrumbs. I base this on the fact that you didn't get shot last night. Tracker is more dangerous than Friendly Neighbor

I mean to reply you sooner, before my latest post. You are totally right, I was mistaken to think

Mafia

would kill

Friendly Neighbor

before

Tracker

.

[Mr Oobsy]

Mechanically, skitter is not clear, even with Oobsy's view. Could be Goon|skitter with Rolecop making the kill N1.

When I posted that I did not know that

Mafia

kills cannot be seen by

Tracker

. I also did not know either of the

Mafia

could choose to perform the kill.

"Your target visited <X>" would be just as incriminating as "Your target visited <X> and <Y>"

How could I see someone visit 2 people in this match, if a kill is not seen as a visit?

[Mr Oobsy]

Nevermind. I just realized you were using a hypothetical to emphasize your point.

[Mr Oobsy]

I am open to that but I still want to lynch

Chemist1422

first.