Open 767: Nomination Mafia [Day 7]

[GuiltyLion]

Hi everyone!

I'm a little busy tonight but I'll read the game and try to give some thoughts ASAP, hopefully at least one post within the next 4-5 hours. Then I'll be around all day tomorrow. In the meantime if there's any major/important events you'd like me to give thoughts on after catchup, let me know

[GuiltyLion]

alright I've read up, sorry for not posting last night I got a wee bit drunker than I anticipated

I think Menalque/Joey/Awoo are town. I'm on board with scum!Titus - the sequence of posts where she just ripped into Mutant's reads vibed to me like scum securing the mislynch, there was no town incentive to rail so hard for the lynch there on an obviously bad wagon. Also think PM is scummy-looking and I agree with 465, though I'm not sure that necessarily means they are scum together

also this was a noteworthy scum post from Dong that I don't think anyone called out:

Dont really get your townread on me though mutant, i ascertain that i havent done much to earn that so far, and my activity has been lacking

this was his only post in twilight and it's to argue with an already lynched player about why he shouldn't be townread. There's no game solving purpose at all it's purely a LAMIST post.

[GuiltyLion]

pisskop why did you unvote Titus when I replaced in?

[GuiltyLion]

Does anybody strongly think scum!Norwegian boy would also nom himself with scum!Titus against a lurk slot? I agree the intent-hammer sequence was bad and the way he pivoted from voting my slot to voting Titus didn't feel super real but end of the day I have to think it's most likely that there's two town in this first pool

[GuiltyLion]

Why did Mafia put scum-read players on the chopping block instead of prominent town players? Titus has been scum read by other players (yes, I read this game), Correspondence has been inactive and just now replaced, and Norway, as mentioned, hammered after declaring intent (yes, that is true), but without giving Mutant a chance to respond. In Day 2, wouldn't you put in 3 of the biggest town reads into the nomination pool just to sack one of them off?

my thoughts on this

I think it's most likely they nommed one of themselves and two slots they felt were most mislynchable to muddy all three slots for future odd day lynches. I don't really agree with the "even lynches are glorified NKs" idea, I think if you nommed three obvtown players that'd be fairly transparent and wouldn't give you a useful foundation for the rest of the game. Maybe you pull that move on Day 4 but if I were scum and scumread I feel I'd be guaranteeing a D3 or D5 lynch on myself rolling with all obvtown even day pools.

though now I'm thinking by that logic if scum!Titus got nommed here then it's likely the other two scum feel they're in a stronger position than she is here, which doesn't really vibe with Dong/PM scum

[GuiltyLion]

I TR Joey mainly for 221. I don't think scum would go through that level of effort for towncred from WKing a nearly-lynched slot. Timing was genuine too as he was clearly working on that pre-hammer

[GuiltyLion]

Hm, she didn't anti-town, she just outed her reads who ended up wrong just like most of the table. Burying scum from your pov isn't that anti-town and it was on the verge of the lynch, so she had town behind her back and mutant was pretty much the designated lynch.

It's true titus has been pretty bad since d2 (and imo d1 was sloppy af). That doesn't make her scum tho. What is the scum agenda in being useless in a lynchpool?

BTw, you have been biased towards your reads since the very beginning with the latest post saying "Titus sounds like giving up scum" which comes from someone trying to confirm their POV.

I'll get to what I'm getting at. We go into the day. Titus is supposed to be the strongest person in the lynch pool, gets self nominated as scum. Norwegianboy just mishammered, and correspondence is afk. EZ mislynches in the bag, free towncred incoming.

Things don't go as planned, no one buys the correspondence thing, and norwegianboy doesn't catch on either. Momentum swings to titus. Scum partners (in union with the rest of the gmae) start calling titus scum and get ready for the bus. Titus as scum with daychat knows she's being bussed, and starts playing the giving up routine instead of actually fighting like mutant did. Lines up, doesn't it? And it's not too crazy of a story. Doesn't rely on specific associations with any hypothetical partners, and it explains her current behaviour.

What does titus have to do to say she's been set up? She needs to call me scum.

I mean, you have this read because his read list is very "convenient" aka common & not unique in anyway, correct?
From the moment you saw his list, you basically already believed he was mafia and tried to confirm that by questioning him; your whole line of questioning is biased and your conclusion too.
I understand why having a convenient read list can be scummy, but why is it not possible it's just coming from town ? You know a lot of people share this list, so I am assuming a lot of town too, so why not another townie, because of a replace in?

I don't really have any answers to those questions but I am just trying to make you realize the way you approached his posts.

"if he lied about his having a written out readslist developed when he said he did, and actually he just had some reads from skimming the last few pages and reading the overall state -- that he then later fleshed out and came up with reasons for -- I'm saying that's scum indicative"

I understand your rationale and suji could be mafia, I just think his answers were pretty good and made sens from a town pov, thats all.

"The thing is, he could also very well have posted the exact way he said he did and still be scum."

It's rhetoric but basically assomption A being true (his read list rdy or something) doesn't make assomption B true (his alignement). Like, he could've lied or exaggerated the reality for town purposes rather than scum ones etc. Basically I am saying that its not a good way to find his alignement

100% agree with both of these posts. I think the most likely explanation for Titus lynch feeling slow is scum are reluctant to commit to the bus. also because I'm not voting there yet.

and I think regardless of his alignment suji was probably honest about the note-taking/bb code process

[GuiltyLion]

NGL joey, if I'm wrong somewhere and suji flips scum you're looking

real

good for partners right about now

the fact that you seem really keen to encourage thinking about what might be possible regarding suji rather than what's likely is a big fat scumping for me

eh I don't really agree with this, I doubt he goes to bat this much for a partner!suji. Plus he mostly seems to be pushing back on your process rather than your read

[GuiltyLion]

The vote is being pushed away from her and onto me, can’t you see it?

can you be a bit more explicit about who is doing the pushing and what you think their alignments are? vague generalities like this without naming names are bad

[GuiltyLion]

I feel confident in his ability to see I am town

why? I've mislynched you before I think. Most of the games I remember we were opposite alignments

[GuiltyLion]

It was in reference to GuiltyLion. I was wanting him to answer to everyone voting for the other players. My apologies for the confusion.

Anyway, GuiltyLion, just answer the questions above, and explain it "for" everyone in each category.

I'm confused - the questions in your 746 don't seem to apply to me? They seem directed at Joey? Was this a mistake in this post?

[GuiltyLion]

I did skim Titus, her d1 start has much better posts, showing much more town thought process (looks like I am copying your read but it's actually written on the notepad I was using). I think she outed a few very genuine posts like 180 & 383. My overall take is that she's playing sloppy, again more likely to come from town but i can see going both ways (again, i am not very good at reading her).

Why do you think 180 and 383 are genuine? They don't seem especially town to me

my main problem with Titus is 195 ("blatant AtE" - not true at all) and the combo of 198/199. I might be biased having read the game already knowing mutant's flip but those posts feel designed to make mutant look as bad as possible. plus nobody else had really been pressured/wagoned/voted at all D1 so I don't think a townie would be gunning so hard there

[GuiltyLion]

Jesus Christ this game

Why if you’re not voting titus or Norwegian, are you not voting titus or Norwegian

@anyone that applies to

I didn't really want the day to end yet, Titus was at like L-2 last time I was here

[GuiltyLion]

Guilty, do a thing please. Im waiting on you explicitly.

I feel the same bud

Do you still want Titus lynch?

[GuiltyLion]

I kinda want to vote Norwegian boy just to make two L-2 wagons and force pisskop and Creature to take a real stand

but I'd definitely rather Titus lynched today

[GuiltyLion]

I kinda want to vote Norwegian boy just to make two L-2 wagons and force pisskop and Creature to take a real stand

but I'd definitely rather Titus lynched today

Then vote on that. youre not impressing me.

You realize that's hammer at this point, yes? That I was waiting to see where you and Creature and Suji would vote before I did anything once it became clear I was not gonna be the lynch today?

I plan on voting Titus in

12 hours

, so consider this intent.

Joey if this flips town I apologize and I'll go for nEE but I can't shake my feeling that he's more likely the intended ML today

[GuiltyLion]

Hahaha. What? You think he's the intended ML today, so you want to make him the intended ML tomorrow?

only if Titus flips town, which means I am therefore likely wrong about him being the intended ML today

the only way that's wrong is if both are town which I don't think is likely

the "we have to lynch him at some point this game" argument is weak IMO. Either you think the hammer is scum-indicative or it's not. Given that he said he plays short deadline games on his other site and that he saw mutant online but not posting, I don't think the 6-7 hour period between intent/hammer is so bad that we

have

to lynch him over it - if he's town he's absolutely better alive than dead. Saying "we have to flip him at some point regardless" is a bad justification for mislynches

[GuiltyLion]

eh okay I see that I guess if you really think this could be all town, nEE being a better flip. I've been assuming that at least one of the two are scum and of them I think Titus play is worse.

however can't you also make the same argument about Titus? Like unless there's a convincing towncase on her is she not gonna be a lynch target rest of game for burying mutant on d1 and then pushing my slot while inactive?

[GuiltyLion]

Sigh. People will just keep beating on the dead horse that "he hammer town!" as an argument for every day from now on so i've half given up. I'm just hoping the town will find the real scum if i flip.

this is really all you have to say?

[GuiltyLion]

idk I still want Titus but there's not a lot of time left and I was planning on hammering around this point since idk if we'll get anything more of value from Titus

I also agree with Suji's 875 that a feeling of reluctance to lynch is a sign of a good wagon, not a bad one. I was specifically withholding my vote from Titus and I and others basically had to call out pisskop a few times to get him to vote back there.

without looking back, I know why PM and Joey are voting nEE, I don't really feel I know why Creature is voting nEE and Titus' vote is self-preservation

[GuiltyLion]

since this is looking like a nEE lynch now and not a Titus lynch I'm gonna wait to hammer until later this afternoon, maybe another 6-7 hours if anyone else has more to say

Creature if you see this please address why you think nEE is scum I just rechecked your ISO and there's not really anything there on that front

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Titus

this puts both wagons at L-1

in case a nEE voter sees reason to switch. But I promise I won't let deadline expire with no lynch and I'll be back throughout today in case my vote is needed on nEE

[GuiltyLion]

So I think where I'm at, and I think where most of us conversing are at is that if we are TvTvT, the best lynch is norwegianboy, and if we are TvTvS, the most likely S is titus.

yeah this feels like a fair summary to me.

I still think in a vacuum TvTvT is less likely than TvTvS, especially with this group of three, but it's kinda hard to

really

walk down that reasoning without it starting to feel like WIFOM/guessing what scum would do

also good to know about the lynches but kinda disappointed because that takes away a lot of pressure on everyone to choose the lynch and ensure that hammer occurs

regardless shouldn't you be voting nEE again? or are you back to TvTvS?

[GuiltyLion]

I wanna reread D2 now and I don't have time yet

I doubt both scum were off wagon and while I do think that was bad play from Titus I also have to think scum would absolutely be trying to set themselves up to gain something from that flip

don't really think Joey or Awoo are likely scum still, I'm looking at Suji/pisskop first. PM mayyyybe but if we're looking off wagon my gut take is that Creature is much worse

[GuiltyLion]

I had an opportunity to hammer nEE and declined to. I never "fence sat" on Titus I pushed for her lynch consistently throughout - just because I didn't vote doesn't mean I was "fence sitting". The whole point was to see where people would vote in absence of my vote, as someone inside the three it's way more useful for VCA to see where people vote before I vote

+ can you explain that post where you townread nEE because "Titus was the only scum in the three from yesterday"? because that logic literally makes no sense combined with this push.

nEE's latest reads post is bad

[GuiltyLion]

sorry this has been a bit of a work week from hell and I haven't had the time to sit down and reread yet. I'm traveling most of the day tomorrow so I hope to spend some quality time with this game at the airport, will definitely fully engage tomorrow evening once I'm settled into my hotel room if nothing else, and by then I'll have a real idea of what I want to do.

[GuiltyLion]

currently rereading the game sitting at the airport gate, cheers

got through the first 10 pages and I really don't see how you all are seeing this as Joey scum. Look at the early interactions with Titus:

@Titus&PK: Mutant's read is way too abysmal to come from scum

Why do you say that so early?

Pk, is Joey scum or derp town? The pain meds are fogging me.

Pk, is Joey scum or derp town? The pain meds are fogging me.

Implying I am "derp" is still shading and discrediting my slot, so why do you scumread mutant's post

You claim he's bad but assume he's town blocking pressure that gets the game going because a) scum or b) you think you know so well it's not worth investigating and seeing if you're right and if we can get on the same pagr.

I'm tired but that's garbo joey.

Kinda doubt that joey and Titus are the same alignment

What about the exchange is SvsT?

Why can't we be both town?

+1, I don't like Joey's reaction but that doesn't make him scum. It could be a personality clash.

none of these strike me as particularly theatre-y, particularly how Joey suggests that they could both be town and then Titus sheeps onto that idea. Knowing Titus is scum, it looks to me like she's shading Joey's slot (who was defending the D1 mislynch that Titus was pushing), yet also treating him diplomatically/not pushing him to make sure she doesn't run up into him head on. I don't think scum play around each other like this and this is just strengthened by Joey's ISO being generally townie IMO. Being on a counter wagon to scum isn't inherently scum indicative and if we think scum were trying to avoid the Titus Lynch then you should be looking in Creature/PM first. Creature also made a terrible post on mutant in 134 that I forgot about

Other thoughts: this push from Awoo + rereading the early game has kinda soured my read on the Awoo slot, I don't know why I was feeling so strongly town on Awoo before when their original play around mutant was also meh. And I'm also starting to question my pet scumread on pisskop a bit cause I don't think it's likely both scum!pk and scum!Titus dunk on mutant as a tag team, they were the main two painting everything he said as scummy. 54 is still a noteworthy post tho as I could potentially see that as scum chatting each other up in thread.

will update again with more thoughts if I can make some more headway in the next 30-40 min or so, otherwise I'll be back again in 4-5 hours once I've settled into my hotel.

[GuiltyLion]

sorry for my absence, I basically passed out in the hotel Thurs night and then had wedding (not mine) related shenanigans all day Friday. here now and finishing up reread

Also awoo lowkey scumtold but Its not that relevant to revisit that slot today

hey Joey did you ever follow up on this? what was the scumtell you saw here?

I was looking at Awoo's 380 and I can see it being a bus post

[GuiltyLion]

So if you concede that correspondence is the easy mislynch to misdirect us from titus, (or just is the best lynch for scum in general if he's town) read dongempire's iso and you see post 346 and thats a big YIKES at that noncomittal gross take

on the other hand I do agree with this. "I'd be least insulted to lose Correspondence" is incredibly awkward phrasing there

[GuiltyLion]

We need some more titus votes HERE
We need some more titus votes HERE
There’s not enough votes and too many many scum
There’s not enough votes and too many many scum


Too many scum (we need some more votes in here), Skepta (2019)

I am not convinced that Titus is scum. I'm more convinced in the idea that you are scum. I haven't seen your gameplay, but the fast finger pointing and the aggressive behavior isn't going to win any favor points. Also, this, no offense, was cringe-worthy.

on reread I dislike this PM post. he gave exactly one reason for suspecting Menalque in twilight of D1 (238) and then barely engaged with him D2, yet has strong phrasing here for why he suspects Menalque's push on Titus, doesn't line up with the activity in his ISO.

[GuiltyLion]

The push prevented GL's slot from remaining empty so *shrug* teach me to play day 1

How did your push have anything to do with preventing Correspondence/GuiltyLion from remaining content-less (I assume this is what you mean, and not that your push was responsible for someone filling a slot that had replaced out)? I've already covered Correspondence's inevitable replacement. Did you think that GuiltyLion would have come in here and posted nothing but for your push?

this on the other hand feels genuine to me. I'm likely voting PM over suji I think but still want to finish this D2 read

[GuiltyLion]

Jesus Christ this game

Why if you’re not voting titus or Norwegian, are you not voting titus or Norwegian

@anyone that applies to

And GL can't be scum because?

I keep feeling you're deflecting away from GL.

Considering that there are no votes on GL, maybe he considers any future vote on GL to be considered a wasted vote? It would make sense, but it still is a problem.

I don’t understand what you mean by “it’s still a problem”

this is a good callout and I don't remember it being addressed

@PM - what was the "problem" here? The fact that I wasn't likely getting votes at that point, or the fact that Menalque wasn't suggesting I was vote-worthy, or what?

[GuiltyLion]

@awoo & suji; can you explain your PM read?

From my initial stance on PM, the below spoilered posts have reinforced my scum read. In post 819 and 823, PM's response to me is throwing shade at me trying to paint the Titus wagon as a bad wagon, and highlight the Norwegianboy wagon (same amount of votes, don't force people) as a viable alternative. Post 895 is basically PM saying they are okay with whatever and don't really have a stance (I'm fine with Titus if the majority want it), despite them asserting I am scum if Titus flips town.

Spoiler:

I'm still here, but nothing much has changed so I don't have much to say. GuiltyLion or pisskop should vote Titus so we can proceed.

I get you were on Titus' wagon, but are you sure they should directly ignore NorwegianboyEE in this case? He's also near the majority number, so saying this makes it seem like you're tunneling onto Titus, despite (at the time until Kop's vote) NorwegianboyEE having the same amount of votes as Titus.

I'm still here, but nothing much has changed so I don't have much to say. GuiltyLion or pisskop should vote Titus so we can proceed.

I get you were on Titus' wagon, but are you sure they should directly ignore NorwegianboyEE in this case? He's also near the majority number, so saying this makes it seem like you're tunneling onto Titus, despite (at the time until Kop's vote) NorwegianboyEE having the same amount of votes as Titus.

I don't understand the intent of this post. I very obviously have Titus as a scum read and NoregianboyEE as a null read. Why would I ask to have my null read lynched over my scum read?

The idea is that you're not giving them a choice. If they scum read Norwegian, let them scum read Norwegian. Saying to vote Titus gives them that lack of choice, crucial in allowing a Town to be that, a town. Maybe they have something that you weren't aware of, and you're tunneling them into a particular lynch.

If they want to vote for Titus, then I'm fine with it, but my heart is saying NorwegianboyEE is scum, so that's where I'll stick.

I'm willing to ask a similar thing. If Titus flips town, then Suji is a likely suspect. If he flips Mafia, then, I don't know what I'll do. I don't think he'll flip Mafia given the circumstances of this day, but if he does, then I'll try to keep an open mind.

I still think Norwegian was the better lynch of the three, but again, I'm fine with a Titus lynch if that's what the majority wants to do.

yup this is exactly how it felt to me on reread with Titus as conf scum in mind

[GuiltyLion]

I would like to hear your thoughts on PMysterious, GuiltyLion.

scum

VOTE: PMysterious

lots of robotic posts, on the wrong wagon yesterday and shading the people voting scum, despite just rereading most of the game I still don't feel like I can accurately summarize the general state of his reads

speaking of which here's where I am at (pending a read of the last couple pages but I doubt much will change)

{Joey, Menalque}
{Suji}
{Awoo, Norwegian}
{Creature, Pisskop}
{PM}

[GuiltyLion]

who's down for a pisskop lynch today?

VOTE: pk

I'm also down for this

[GuiltyLion]

Menalque I want to ask you what town!Suji with a scumread on Titus should have done differently in terms of their vote

[GuiltyLion]

ah I had this open in another tab and thought I had posted it

Gl you do nothing but call my posts bad, can you explain what exactly you don't like?

the reasoning in that post was very surface level, you basically just say slots are townie looking, you say you're hesitant to vote your scumread PM due to your unflipped Joey scumread (which I wholly disagree with from the get-go)

[GuiltyLion]

Actually I think my vote was L-1 so one more vote would be a lynch

[GuiltyLion]

@

mod

- can we get the latest VC?

my reads haven't changed much. 100% agree Suji's interactions with Titus do not look like scum-scum. 712 especially as I already linked. maybe that looks more obviously town to me since he's defending my slot from Titus but that's not scum trying to help their partner in any shape or form

[GuiltyLion]

After team analyses, I came down to 4 possible team within my poe

PM/GL
PM/pk
PM/Creat
pk/Creat

If PM is town I am pretty much back to square uno

this is pretty much where I sit just without me being scum (1114)

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: TrueSoulEnergy

Titus, why did you fail to address my comment on your Correspondence assertion?

Spoiler: I disagree with 697.

Incoherence between ideas/behavior is a clue that their thought process is not genuine & more superficial than they want you to believe. Basically they often have to go "bottom-up"

Town looks incoherent but their processes "does exists" they just aren't very clear, its ''top-down'' so you can always investigate the thought process

@Titus; Why do you scumread nEE?

@Suj Which post? I am under intense stress IRL. I'll comment today.

@Joey, I think GL is more genuine. Nee just sounds like he's trying to lynch not himself and keep his options open on me. GL and I ho way back to my noob days. I feel confident in his ability to see I am town

Ok with this post here
Suj/Joey is a TVS.

Usually Scum, at least when I flip scum in my games, will try and involve their mafia member in a conversation but then distance from another.

So the way that this was setup. I feel like 1 of Suj/Joey was @ed just to add conversation with a mafia member while the other is Town.

@TSE - did you notice that Titus is responding to specifically the two questions asked of her above here?

[GuiltyLion]

I think Awoo's a little too cavalier to be scum

I'll wait to explain my post once I get a response from TSE

[GuiltyLion]

also like if Awoo is scum then all that flip-flopping EOD2 when I basically goaded him into voting Titus is really clumsy/awkward associatively and doesn't read like Awoo knew Titus would flip red

[GuiltyLion]

1. Majority & Plurality lynching will take place.
2. Tiebreakers - I will choose the wagon that reached its most recent peak first. If there are no votes at EoD, I will pick the player who was last unvoted. If nobody has ever voted in the day, I will use the RNG machine. (If you're confused about how a tie will be resolved, please ask.)

no lynch is definitely not possible

[GuiltyLion]

to explain my question I thought the reasoning for TvS between Suji/Joey might be manufactured because this is what TSE said:

Usually Scum, at least when I flip scum in my games, will try and involve their mafia member in a conversation but then distance from another.

yet Titus wasn't proactively involving anyone in conversation, she was instead responding to the two most immediate questions asked of her in real time dialogue so the whole thing is built on a misrepresentation of 703

however I was expecting TSE if scum to backtrack on this or at least acknowledge the misrep in some way but instead they doubled down

[GuiltyLion]

if this is all town, who's scum? I still think Joey/nEE are town but that leaves Suji/pisskop and I don't know if pisskop goes to bus Suji on D3 in that world

[GuiltyLion]

who is flygon, is that TrueSoulEnergy?

[GuiltyLion]

ah yeah that's his Avi lol

Joey how'd you switch from 90% voting Awoo to voting TSE?

[GuiltyLion]

also I really don't think 1141 is a townslip at all

the way TSE has been building his arguments is jank, he just assumes these questionable premises like Suji/Joey is TvS or GL/Awoo is TvS then goes from there, I don't think he's bothered to read the game just ISO'd and looked at VCs

[GuiltyLion]

intent -24 hours

holding to see if anyone does have doubts on me they wanna sort out

can we pause on this? I'm too busy today this is a prodge but I'll be around tomorrow
UNVOTE:

I'm not worried about you but I do want to talk a bit with Awoo if possible and read/digest what I've missed since my last thread read, I wasn't thinking we'd be at hammer time already

Awoo I haven't read since my last few posts so ignore this if you feel you've already addressed it significantly but I want your thoughts on who the wolf team is if we are assuming that this current pool is all town, and also like what actual probability you assign to scum!Menalque compared to scum!TSE because atm I don't grok why you'd have TSE as more town than Menalque

[GuiltyLion]

yeah we have what 8 days until deadline there's no need to intent yet I haven't even gotten my teeth into this day yet

[GuiltyLion]

I think that awoo’s play on D2 was absolutely instrumental in getting the titus lynch through when it would have been entirely possible for him to push Norway there instead of titus and I don’t think that would have brought any negative attention to him really

not only was it instrumental it was also sloppy as I said earlier, if scum!Awoo knew Titus was going down at his hand then I don't think he would have done all the unvoting and deadline hem-hawing that he did

[GuiltyLion]

hi I FINALLY have time and I'm going to read up and be around

[GuiltyLion]

wait it's been another day and I'm at L-1 right now? lol

please don't hammer before I can give reads and thoughts at least

[GuiltyLion]

I'm not gonna do nothing I'm here

[GuiltyLion]

what's scum's path to winning here

with green flip from TSE I'm guessing that was in fact an all-town pool

and I still think Joey is town

lynching pisskop/norway/suji is some order even if I'm lynched today, should pretty much win it right

VOTE: pisskop
I don't think town would replace out here the game feels pretty much solved with an Awoo/Menalque/Joey town block and I think his repeated shading of Menalque was an attempt to crack that

[GuiltyLion]

I need to digest what I just read (particularly what you said about it not being just GuiltyLion’s votes but his assertions on who he would vote [so need to re-read that]) and would like to hear from GuiltyLion.

what would you like to hear?

I don't think my reads wound up changing much, at least not to the point that I'd want to lynch anyone besides pisskop today

are you still town reading Joey/Menalque/Awoo?

[GuiltyLion]

that looks like a joke vote to me

[GuiltyLion]

and also is that like a "must be one of them" either-or or a "could be neither, one, or both" or

[GuiltyLion]

I do see the argument for both but as I said in my most recent post I think that not lynching pk!slot today is more likely to fuck us in the end if I’m majorly wrong somewhere

meh as long as you flip pisskop no matter what and don't let yourself get talked out of it in 6p or 5p I don't think it matters too much? where would you be majorly wrong?

[GuiltyLion]

Basically; you don't strategic replace-out from one vote, regardless where it's coming from. There wasn't that much support for a pk lynch that would justify him thinking he would be the flip from your vote

I already stated that my vote would be there. Norwegian was already voting. GuiltlyLion was the counter so vote would likely be there (and is now). Menalque was the vote that would be the hammer vote. So, there was enough stated or obvious support that Menalque voting pisskop would likely lead to him inferring he would be the lynch.

I might have underestimated the support in his lynch

also I think he's pretty clearly going down next at this point regardless

[GuiltyLion]

like I think the frustration was more at the cumulative problem of Menalque not looking scummy enough to be mislynchable and then getting voted for his efforts trying to shade Menalque

[GuiltyLion]

I know I haven't been super active but I don't think I'm "incapable of towntelling". Take some responsibility for your vote

[GuiltyLion]

Menalque I've been thinking about what you said but if I'm understanding you right that means the way we lose here is pisskop/gl/suji mislynches against an Awoo/nEE team? Which is technically possible I guess but I don't see the point in worrying about it while pk remains unfilled. I still think if nEE is scum then that d2 pool makes no sense, I likely would have been lynched there

[GuiltyLion]

unfilled=unflipped

[GuiltyLion]

No offense but GL produced no value after he claimed he would; nothing coming from a genuine and unique pov

No offense but GL produced no value after he claimed he would; nothing coming from a genuine and unique pov

Compare this with TSE who felt like he was gonna get lynched and thats the difference between a t slot and s slot (assumed s)

Yeah these are p good points

I want more content from lion + I want the pk replacement before doing anything tho

I mean I want pisskop lynched and he's the leading wagon, what more content can I provide at this point? Do you want me to refresh the reasons he's scum over me? I generally don't like town casing myself I don't find it very useful

I'm also basically thinking even if I'm flipped today either pisskop goes D6 or D7 and that should be a lock scum flip so it's not a super big deal atm. honestly I also still have significant doubts about scum!Suji but I don't think it's pro-town or wise to specifically vocalize those right now while he's not at risk of being today's Lynch.

[GuiltyLion]

I don't get why scum!pk would either. Strategic replace-out are officially against the rules so i prefer to believe he's an honest player and that he left because he was seriously pissed in being fosed by his you and the town

like I think the frustration was more at the cumulative problem of Menalque not looking scummy enough to be mislynchable and then getting voted for his efforts trying to shade Menalque

just gonna repeat this (genuine and unique) point

[GuiltyLion]

like reread pisskop v Menalque, especially yesterday when Menalque was in the pool

it's pretty clear pisskop wanted to set up a Lynch on Menalque at some point this game

[GuiltyLion]

A town mindset; You are being lynched if you don't do anything and lynching anyone else is better than letting yourself lynched

if my Lynch leads directly to pisskop's, and at this point I'm sure it will, it doesn't really matter

I also still don't think I'm the Lynch today unless Menalque/Suji/Norway changes their mind

the wagon on TSE was definitely not all town as it went through even without my vote despite me being on it when it first hit L-1. Scum definitely hopped on

[GuiltyLion]

(b) are getting lynched tomorrow yourself

come at me bro

VOTE: melan

ftr i think awoo is statistically more likely to be scum here.

I think it's very unlikely that we don't hit scum between (suji, pk, TSE)

ewww, this is actually absolute garbage. what do you mean its unlikely we wouldnt hit scum between the simple majority of players alive in the game?

I think my vote is good on melanthrope

I think suji's effort is more real than melan's melan is trying to wrangle lynches and hammer out a plan, and thats soo much less towny than the pedantic debating im seeing.

I think awoo is the best lynch for the day.

melan isnt too bad though

Tomorrow we do vca and Lynch the lunchboxes that are trying to railroad lynches

dude, you tried to railroad lynches, you pushed tse _as_ scum, and the only reason im not stringing you up is because of your titus interactions. The same ones tse townread me for.

expresses interest in the Menalque Lynch, switches to Awoo, but then leaves himself room to go back to Menalque after I'm lynched today

[GuiltyLion]

sure scum would say that, it makes him look better if/when Menalque flips green. Might even leave Awoo open as a future lynch too if it serves him

Joey will you vote pisskop slot on D7 ? That's all I need rn

[GuiltyLion]

Lets just focus on the best lynch for today. We should not be brokering votes.

you wont vote tse because you feel they are obvious town. So you vote awoo instead.
tomorrow why dont you vote for your most suspicious player instead of trying to broker votes onto suboptimal lynches.

Brokering is bad for business because it leads to compromise lynches and it allows scum to play on wifom.

In these two posts he even explicitly acknowledges that compromise lynches are bad which debunks your "power struggle" explanation for his Menalque vote

[GuiltyLion]

Joey will you vote pisskop slot on D7 ? That's all I need rn

Joey do you agree me v pisskop is likely TvS yes or no

[GuiltyLion]

you can keep repeating that it, it doesn't make it true, I contributed a lot over the past couple of pages (including completely taking down your weak excuse for pisskop's shitty Menalque vote) and I'm not really inclined to tryhard unless it's needed if/when Menalque or Suji comes here and wants to talk about more stuff or we get a replacement

[GuiltyLion]

like honestly Joey what's the point of posting that, it's just shade for the sake of shade

[GuiltyLion]

This is a lot of new pages, fortunately I am on a train to Portland so I have some time and am reading up

Hi RC!

[GuiltyLion]

When you entered saying that awoo was obv town, that drcirno is reinforcing that narrative, and that you stated very early that you had a tr on pk

Or maybe, they are just hilariously obvtown.
I know I replaced in because pisskop was obvtown.

Didn't you say you hadn't read the game

[GuiltyLion]

like that's objectively a scumslip right there, right

[GuiltyLion]

Okay well I skimmed through and will likely double back but here are my hot take first thoughts

1) I can't think of a reason why scum!Awoo would replace there?
2) I absolutely don't think Menalque is scum
3) RC's Joey case was more convincing than his Menalque push lol

p-edit: how was his rep out post town?

[GuiltyLion]

man I don't know how you all have this much time to play all the time I literally only can make it to this site like once or twice per day especially on weekends

I haven't read a bunch of the latest stuff yet but was gonna say some time ago (maybe 16-18 pages back) there was all this talk about how GL is scum who is fine with the current game state which means there must be a scum in the town block bc otherwise my play isn't serving a clear agenda

which should instead speak to why I'm town because there is no agenda to my posting or votes, like the idea that I'm scum because I'm content with this gamestate is just wildly off-base and reachy

and it seems like everyone ignored my point about how cirrno said he hadn't read the game on replace in but then said he replaced in because pisskop is obvious town?

[GuiltyLion]

I'm trying to speed read through it right now while I have some free time but realistically I really don't want to commit to voting in that dichotomy right now. do we have a current VC? what's RC's read on cirno?

[GuiltyLion]

also i don't think town GL is ever enough of a moron to vote me over my scumread in this situation.

I do think you're town here I'm just struggling to swallow the idea that one of my foundational townreads this game is actually a deepwolf when there's better slots to lynch today

[GuiltyLion]

alright it seems like the heart of the argument revolves around this point that scum!RC could just wait to throw down against Menalque in 5p instead of doing it now in 7p

and Menalque you're saying that's scum indicative because once pisskop-now-Cirrno flips red RC was gonna get PoE'd

and RC is saying he could have easily instead made sure to lynch outside of pisskop in (GL/nEE/Suji/whoever) for the win

this seems like the heavy point to chew on here

honestly I think RC's kinda right about that because I don't know if he needs to shield a scum!pisskop here right now he could have instead just turbolynched me today. but I do agree that prior to replace in it would have been a difficult game state for scum (assuming Menalque's RC/Cirrno team) if they got to Joey-Menalque-RC 3p LYLO. still though I really don't know why a scum Awoo just yolo replaces out like that unless he was giving up? Cirrno hadn't replaced in yet by that point right

other random things of note
-RC offhandedly asserting that 2/3 of mutant's scum reads flipped red bc he assumes D2 pool was guaranteed 2 scum?
-Menalque flip on Suji to town?
-check RC's claims on Titus meta around scumpartners

sorry I know this is very barebones just trying to take some notes for myself before I have to dip out again

[GuiltyLion]

Just a PSA that if I happen to replace out in the near future then first of all sorry for messing with the game and second of all its because someone may or may not be actively trying to ruin my life IRL so we will see how that goes, so far im safe but lets see ok

oh shit somehow I had missed this post entirely

yeah that seems thoroughly NAI, nvm, good call out

[GuiltyLion]

I guess it would make sense for scum!Awoo to be tunneling town!Suji in that world, I did think it was strange that he was casually parking his vote on me while talking about how he wanted the Suji lynch

[GuiltyLion]

Also I'm pretty sure none of y'all actually plan to follow the receiving end of the 1v1 so all these "ooh lynch me if other flip green" is completely meaningless to me.
So if y'all can just stop with this "lynch me if other flips green" bullshit I'd be happy.

also lol this is why I always only offer that deal on the basis of me being lynched first

[GuiltyLion]

mehhh

I just want to lynch Cirrno still. idk. the explicitly WIFOMy blatant sheeping of RC is scummy as well

generally I see where RC's overall coming from with the larger point that the game state felt very coast-y and complacent before the replace-ins implying a deepwolf and ruling out teams that were always losing to PoE. and that does make it best to resolve this today. I think if forced to choose I would like 60% vote RC over Menalque buuuut that's not at all solid and kinda more just based on the wagon compositions themselves

probably be back for a lil late late tonight please don't leave me with another 15 pages in the meantime

[GuiltyLion]

I guess nEE being a Menalque partner does make sense if I truly have borked the Cirrno read

and it feels wrong to agree with RC's larger overall philosophy but then vote him

blah

Cirrno who's Menalque's potential partner(s) in your eyes, you have nEE as town

gl is not a valid answer

Joey/Suji you should chime in on this too

[GuiltyLion]

I don’t like how this wagon formed at all. It’s like RC just shouted the town into submission.
If Menalque actually flips scum then it’s going to look bad for me, but i find this push really really bad. You better be right.

Implied that this is a mislynch + implied that all the non-RC slots are town.

I guess that makes 3 towns not 4.
But like Awoo sas says obvtown

Well yeah, i implied that it's a mislynch because that's exactly what i think it is. And where are you gathering the "implied that all non-RC slots are town" implications from?

You said RC shouted

town

to submission.
That implies that people in Mel wagon that is not RC are town.

Not if you understand town to mean "the people posting in thread and participating in the game" which is a perfectly reasonable interpretation of that post

It's a stretch to say that he was talking about alignments there

[GuiltyLion]

Gonna wait and see if Suji has anything to say I guess

[GuiltyLion]

you have nothing to say?

I'll hammer Menalque but I'm not thrilled about it

You really townread Cirrno?

[GuiltyLion]

For whom the bruh tolls

[GuiltyLion]

Why am I being goaded into doing anything we still have days until deadline and have not heard anything substantive from Suji yet

[GuiltyLion]

:/

Menalque I'm sorry. I should have pushed back more. I don't hold anything against you and I'd wanna play with you again sometime

[GuiltyLion]

consider my vote on Cirno

again, entered and said he didn't read the game, then said he replaced in because he had pisskop as obvtown off of replacing out, when that objectively was in no way a town replace out

plus pk's sticky tunnel on me all game

RC I currently think you're the least scummy of the three voters on Menalque

Joey why did you give up on me so easily yesterday when prior to RC replace in you were insisting Menalque give you my flip

[GuiltyLion]

again, entered and said he didn't read the game, then said he replaced in because he had pisskop as obvtown off of replacing out, when that objectively was in no way a town replace out

This sounds like the major reason for you so I'll address this.
Why did you ignore my post saying that I lie about how much I read regardless of my alignment?

Because that's an entirely NAI response?

Like what am I supposed to say, "oh, you lie as either alignment, guess that rep out was actually town then"

RC can you link that game? It looked to me like he was frustrated he wasn't getting any traction on a future Menalque lynch (lol) and that's why he replaced here

[GuiltyLion]

Sorry, Cirrno* link that game

[GuiltyLion]

FMPOV it's clear when I'm greenflipped D5 pisskop was going next

[GuiltyLion]

Which is why he was continually shading Menalque even prior on d4

[GuiltyLion]

sup, it's me, your only scumread

I will catch up now

[GuiltyLion]

GL forever trying to twist this PK pushing Menalque thing is NAGL

The 60% voting RC thing NAGL as well

This might be one of those situations where it reads different in real time playing the game, or also if you knew my slot is town

because pisskop was 100% angling to vote Menalque after me. He even halfheartedly tried to lynch him d4 when Menalque was in the pool

[GuiltyLion]

But like I still need to look for evidence that I'm wrong

I wanted to meta GL

How do you not feel confident with my meta already we've played so many games

[GuiltyLion]

still hoping to see GL posting something that isn't incorrectly asserting that PK was lining up a lynch on menalque

whoops too bad lol

Seriously though go back to my 2008

Also I think Joey has a good point about nEEs read on Suji for tone looking fabricated

[GuiltyLion]

GL, who do you think DrCirno's partner is and can you explain this PK thing more

At this point I think it can only be Norway. I thought maybe Suji prior to today but 2 scum in this pool makes no sense

Idk man really just go back and dual ISO pisskop and Menalque for the d4-d5 phase. throughout d4 pisskop takes this yuck position of like "Menalque looks like incompetent town but i want to lynch him" despite claiming a stronger scumread on Awoo at the time; then on D5 when it's a 1v1 between me and pisskop he's shading Menalque throughout while I'm at L-1. I don't see why he'd be doing that if he were town and really thought Menalque was town and really wanted his vote on my wagon

[GuiltyLion]

I dunno tbh, you'd have to ask Cirrno. Frankly I'm surprised I wasn't nominated

[GuiltyLion]

Actually now that I'm thinking about this - if I were scum playing the way I've played (absent for stretches, scumread by nearly everyone), why am I not dead already?

You wanna put at least 1 scum in the d6 pool and save your surefire best chance mislynches for d7

P-edit yeah

[GuiltyLion]

Yeah honestly you're not wrong I guess, we'd lynch Cirrno and then nEE for the win, maybe take a coinflip shot at Joey v RC in LyLo

But I'm town and Joeys town too I think

You're sure Suji/Norway is ruled out? I honestly need to go back and reread the two of them, one scum townreading the other and the other critiquing the townread for being fabricated is not out of the range of good team play

[GuiltyLion]

Alas it is 305 and I am tired tho it will have to be tomorrow

I'll be around then too, I won't go off the map for 3 days again.

[GuiltyLion]

idk about this game, i also feels like i can't find a 2nd scum. Both suji's & GL stances makes little sens as scum, especially if for GL if scum are both outside

What if I've been right all along and Cirrno is scum

[GuiltyLion]

Cirrno keeps repeating this line about how it's scummy that I haven't voted him but RC explicitly asked not to vote until he's ready and keeps mentioning he wants more time and I'm happy to oblige him

nice try at the misrep

[GuiltyLion]

Actually nevermind just do whatever

Don't vote though

I'm really confused by scums intentions with this pool

It doesn't seem aimed at forcing a breakup of the townblock

ok

i'm starting to feel measurably better, i'm going to tackle this game in a couple days

would appreciate if you unvoted until i got back suji

"scum!GL is so dumb he forgot to vote me what a scum claim lol"

[GuiltyLion]

I think cirno's day has been ridiculously obvious town

how

just
how

the only reason anyone can give for his play being town is pisskop's replace out which I find
a) not town
and b) clearly being used by Cirrno to just fuck around the past two days. like sheeping along with RC on Menalque while trolling Menalque to bait him into getting more upset is townplay? not at all caring who's lynched in this pool is town play?

[GuiltyLion]

Like I've been scum near LyLo before. I know that feeling of victory being close by and not wanting to mess up. I think it's pretty clear that GL is feeling exactly that. He knows he can't back out because he has no other options but he knows I'm being town as f right now so he can't push me harder.

if the team is really GL/nEE as you keep asserting, how are we "close to victory"? we'd definitely lose in that world lol

[GuiltyLion]

But i am not going to actively make a case on either, i have 99.9% certain cirno is town, 95% suji is

99.9% huh, that's absurd

HAMMER TIME BOYOS
VOTE: DrCirrno

[GuiltyLion]

I've been all over the place on whether GL is town or scum, I think this is his best scum game historically if he's scum but then again it seems like everyone is having their best historical scum games in games with me.

I'll take it

VOTE: GuiltyLion