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Post Post #1247 (isolation #0) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 3:35 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

Hi guys! No I don't have anything, I'm VT.

I've at least skimmed every page and all the iso's. I should be able to discuss.

Iconeum I have some doubts about your role comments. I popcorn back to you please.
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Post Post #1249 (isolation #1) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 3:56 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

He's not going to have anything, as I read him.

Also I am not sold on this PR/VT math. Doesn't really seem like bastard means power roles in this game. In which case it is bad to give shelter to the PR claims.

Vorkuta, you offered to claim before Iconeum. That's (part) of why I think that order should be flipped. He specifically wanted to go last
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Post Post #1251 (isolation #2) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 5:00 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

I don't know about non-bastard roles are VTs.

I don't see Cyrus as mafia. He seems to care about the game but also not care that much if he gets lynched. So he's town or maybe recruited cult who is disappointed about it.

Btw if we found cult, would we lynch them? Or do we have to find PMysterious' group because of the NK potential? Sounds like the feeling, at least used to be, to go for scum before cult. But we got one now.

Lots of evidence for Iconeum probably not PMysterious' partner. I didn't miss that.

nomnom why do you say Vorkuta gets town points for that last one?
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Post Post #1254 (isolation #3) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 5:24 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

@nomnom
Rreading the iso is that really true?? I don't spot a lot of references to PM but I'll go back and study.

I think he is town mostly because of his claim, I do think there has to be some decent role in the town.
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Post Post #1255 (isolation #4) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 5:27 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

In post 1253, Vorkuta wrote:
In post 1251, Kelly Chen wrote:I don't know about non-bastard roles are VTs.
:igmeou:
You... saw my bookkeeping right?


Oh
You want to say that "these guys received a VT roll!PM, but are actually bastard rolls in disguise?"
To that I reply
-too many
-okhams/cynicism/gut says "scum is lying" is more likely than "town doesn't know they're bastard"
Yeah I saw a LOT of bookkeeping in there.

VT could be bastard, scum could be bastard. Actually I think the description of this game will turn out to not have been accurate, or at least, only accurate if you use an unusual definition of bastard. So I think we should mostly just play this game like normal.
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Post Post #1258 (isolation #5) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 5:55 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

Ok. I'll go back to there.

It seems like ultimately you're saying you don't want me to make Icon out his role. When do you think would be an appropriate time to revisit that. I have TR for Icon as well by the way.

DO you think your role has been bastardized? I thought you thought no.
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Post Post #1261 (isolation #6) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 6:27 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

Ok. I have to leave for a while. Despite a TR (or non-scum read anyway) I don't think Icon's claim should skate past today. I reserve judgment on your own but I was thinking we'd get all the claims out today. Seems possible to imagine that tomorrow town is not even majority.

I think nomnom and chickadee are probably bad guys. I have to write a little about that.
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Post Post #1265 (isolation #7) » Fri Nov 01, 2019 2:26 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

Ok, thanks for that Chickadee. Are you saying I'm town or you're town there?

Vorkuta what is townspew, is that the AtE? Chickadee's contributions seem scummy to me. Maybe just a playstyle but... she doesn't do much to stir the pot, posts are some apologies, comments on the setup or the Drew situation or strategy, making lots of easy comments like asking me to continue the mass claim (but doesn't get involved in discussion about whether popcorn should continue). Her only non-Drew vote is Cyrus for not making sense.

Again I am thinking a "discouraged town" read (if that's what you are seeing) can also be a cult read. The cult seemingly can't grow so they have a real slog to the finish. I would be depressed about it.

For Shos, I didn't have a strong impression, later posts read better than the earlier posts. His record on PMysterious is mixed, actually seems like he defended him more later. Have to look closer to see how much influence he likely had at these points. Shos didn't want to finish popcorn and nomnom made a big deal about that. It's one of the main instances where it seemed to me like nomnom's behavior was off.

On that note, regarding Drew, it is hard maybe to review D1/D2 fairly with the benefit of hindsight but it seems plausible to me that Drew's role was so important to cult win that cult would risk bold moves to stop his lynch. I have to read those days again carefully. But I had a nomnom=bad first impression.

I have to reread Shos more in context... Just looking through now and see where he said he doesn't even remember why Cyrus is cultread. I dunno, I feel OK about that actually.
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Post Post #1276 (isolation #8) » Sat Nov 02, 2019 9:07 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

In post 1268, Iconeum wrote:Dead playerscan visit me in a dream during night

Hinted a TON towards this during game

Shos looks worst coming into today wrt the lynch

Ill be bck on tuesday
Well it's pretty consistent with what you said except I don't really see how this is bastard outside of the fact that it is not very useful.

Did you have any dreams? Is there content to them? I get that you can't prove anything but I don't see why you wouldn't have shared.
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Post Post #1283 (isolation #9) » Sat Nov 02, 2019 6:05 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

So regarding trying to find potential partners for PMysterious:

PM never said anybody seemed suspicious or town to him.
He defended himself (on scum suspicions) three times, in three posts in three days Oct 8-10, always to Iconeum. The most interesting of these to me is Oct 9 where Iconeum posted a full player list with a stance for each, where PM is one of three to-lynch players and Iconeum's description for PM is just "have already posted about this". PM thought this worth responding to.
PM wrote on various other topics in response to every other player except Chickadee and Shos.

Iconeum's history in regards to PM and up to the lynch is pretty long... It's worth writing up I think, but interesting things are post #404 Oct 10 where Iconeum appears (?) to mix up PM and Gameplay, and it seems to take some work for Cyrus' questioning to draw Iconeum's attention to this. It doesn't seem like Iconeum would make this mix-up if he were partners with PM. Cyrus' questioning about the size of Iconeum's suspect list is interesting; it seems valid, though Iconeum says that he has only really pushed PM. On Day 2, from the 15th to the 24th, Iconeum and PM seem to ignore each other other than PM explaining to Icon what a Cultifier is. After PM's "prod dodge" (Oct 28) Iconeum focuses again on lynching PM.

Chickadee expresses suspicion a couple of times. Oct 11 she doesn't like PM's hangup on trying to No Lynch, but she wants Drew today. Seems PM had a couple of days he could have responded to this before the modkill hit. Oct 15 Chickadee notes PM continues to try to look like he is doing something. PM doesn't respond despite making 14 posts Oct 16-18. On Oct 28 Chickadee says she prefers PM lynch. She asks Nom to elaborate on an argument that would show PM as town. PM's prod dodge occurs same day and the prod dodge didn't respond to anything by anyone. Chickadee did not actually join in the vote.

Shos: Oct 9 says ok with PM or Drew lynch. Oct 11 repeats can go with PM lynch but has a bad feeling about it. Oct 16 Shos says PM is a VI. And he says PM's observation about the ?? vote disappearing makes PM more town. Oct 28 Shos repeats couple times PM is just VI. So generally Shos was pretty vocal and consistent about PM being a bad lynch.

Nomnom did not express a read on PM for quite a while. On Oct 22 Nomnom's mass claim preference order is Shos/Vork/GP/Cyrus/Chickadee. On Oct 25 says she doesn't think PM is scum. Oct 28 says she's had experiences with town PM that were like this. PM/Chemist are bad lynch choices. Some discussion where Nomnom gives credit to a Vork argument/evidence that PM's behavior could be scum. After the "prod dodge" nomnom asks for a deadline extension, but after a little while decides to vote PM to get this game going somehow.

Vorkuta and Cyrus are to come, probably not going to do GP myself.
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Post Post #1287 (isolation #10) » Sun Nov 03, 2019 3:09 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

In post 1284, cyrus62 wrote:very good kelly i see your reading but you did have almost 2days to do so .
Not sure what you mean by that, I read up before posting at all, but it was not focused on PM relationships and I wasn't taking notes.

If you're saying I'm not paying enough attention to your arguments that might be true.
shos just comes off as not trying also chimist was on my big post as being like pm however like pm we see he was town ,
Are you talking about the below post? Is "num" a typo? I'm going to go through your posts from a PM angle but not sure why you are pointing out that you suspected Chemist.
In post 762, cyrus62 wrote:town
icon
doctor
me
chekdee
nom
scum
gameplay
vork
shos
pm
num chimiist
we know theres one cult but we have to find scum above all else but that could be either vork or chick both acted diffent after day 1 i thought.
Well finding scum is the point of me trying to write up the PM connections. It's a good idea about who acted differently after day 1 (and Shos has had the same idea), especially if somebody switched position (explicitly or not) to not wanting to lynch Drew after previously supporting it, I am not sure if anybody did that.
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Post Post #1288 (isolation #11) » Sun Nov 03, 2019 3:27 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

In post 1286, nomnomnom wrote:I'm just tempted to vote shos and end today honestly
Any thoughts on the Shos-PM likelihood?
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Post Post #1290 (isolation #12) » Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:08 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

But for example what if Shos could not be mafia with PM. Would that influence your pick?
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Post Post #1292 (isolation #13) » Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:17 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

It's not really my point, it's more like have you considered that issue at all, whether Shos and PM could be scum together.
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Post Post #1294 (isolation #14) » Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:31 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

Ok. So you noticed Shos didn't vote for scum PM and that makes you think (even) less of Shos. That works, thanks.
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Post Post #1307 (isolation #15) » Sun Nov 03, 2019 10:07 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

This is WIFOM but would scum Shos partnered with PM really play his cards such that he can't get any credit at all for the lynch. Like he says he can get on board for a PM lynch "although I regrettably have a bad feeling about this". Ouch
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Post Post #1308 (isolation #16) » Sun Nov 03, 2019 10:47 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

In post 1302, cyrus62 wrote:keep in mind icon doesn't want a lynch till they return ... if shos flips town then its vork and gameplay and this is if its done before Tuesday
But you're on Shos yourself, how about if Shos gets one more vote before Tuesday you could unvote to be safe.
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Post Post #1313 (isolation #17) » Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:26 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

Continuing regarding PMysterious links:

Vorkuta: There is one weird-looking interaction between him and PM. On 10/7 when PM wanted to NL, Vorkuta directed the question to the mod of whether it could be done. After getting the answer he says "jigglypuff can earn the tinest of town posts for the effort" (speculating about cult?) but "we're going to need something more substantial." PM doesn't seem to pay attention to it, or the face-palms, and doesn't acknowledge/comment on NL being disallowed until 10/11. PM doesn't talk to Vorkuta at all until 10/16 where there are a few exchanges on setup (how modkills work, Korina's alignment, the ?? vote, Semi-Priest). By the end of this PM votes Drew and starts messing around with text of truth.

It seems like Vork's first suspect was RCE. By late 10/10 he votes Cyrus and gives a brief list of reasons. On 10/11 after a couple of PM posts (the NL rule acknowledgment, Drew as jester, saying his VT role is useless and will probably get sacrificed, can't hunt antitown until there is evidence of what they specifically are) Vorkuta adds him to the bad list saying "Cyrus and Jigglypuff slots grind my gears and I hate their posts." He offers a five-tier suspicion list with Cyrus and PM as scummiest. About then Vorkuta gets tangled up with Nom and RCE and is on the defensive. Same day #553 Vorkuta says we have "two paths" meaning going after cult (Drew/Cyrus) or going after scum (stated as a decision among himself/Nom/possibly RCE), so PM has managed to get clear of Vorkuta for the moment.

On 10/15 upon RCE's death PM says "Another shame, is that there are more powerless people like me", and asks the mod if we may know Korina's original role. Immediately, 1 minute after that, Vork offers the hot take that RCE was the only VT in the game. Chemist and Drew point out that PM claimed VT. Vork says "Jigglypuff has been whining about being confused ... I don't think this is his VT play. And I wanted to take it to the next level by making said blanket statement."

Let me think about that. If Vork-PM are scum together, what happens if it turns out to be true that RCE is the only VT?? Now it has been outed, earlier than probably would be the case otherwise, that PM's claim is not all that viable. So I don't raelly think that's the situation. Though for town Vork it is not good either; he's risking outing a bunch of information just to cast doubt on one VT claim.

On 10/22 Vorkuta ranks PM second-scummiest after Cyrus. Cyrus gets the vote (for just a few hours) due to cult equity. On 10/27 Vork still has Cyrus and PM in scummiest tier. And later that day he votes PM. It's unclear to me if anything provoked this, or made Cyrus less suspicious to him. Vork seemed to hope for deadline extension also. Does not seem to want Shos vs. Nom lynch. Some discussion started to come up about PM as lynch choice and it's in that context that Vorkuta argued that town PM tries harder. Nom/Icon/Cyrus vote PM after the prod dodge post.
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Post Post #1314 (isolation #18) » Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:43 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

In post 1311, cyrus62 wrote:keep in mind icon doesn't want, a lynch till they return
If Icon had not said that would you be OK with an early lynch?
but if there is four, votes on shos then it proves either their is two scum or one other scum on them ready to hang the dead wight.

that's if he flips scum however, if shos flips town then its
vork and gameplay
aka kelly , and if, this is if its done before Tuesday if its done after Tuesday then i have to look, at icon if hes flips town however if shos flips scum it clears nom , of being scum.
To be clear are you saying I am scum if Shos flips town before Tuesday
whether or not
I am on that lynch? Seems like you're forgetting Chickadee in your numbers.

If Vork puts Shos at -1 will you unvote? Or would you prefer to see if somebody wants to hammer early?
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Post Post #1329 (isolation #19) » Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:34 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

In post 1316, cyrus62 wrote:yes you are scummy due to replacing in. you tell me why ?? was indicated as town by the mod for almost all day of day 1 was on you .
So if Cyrus thinks there could be a scum role that gets a confirmed pro-town ?? vote on them that would fit my idea of a bastard role.

If Korina's role was to just die immediately, that would be a bastard role too.

And Drew's ability worked counter to his own team, so that's bastard.
In post 1317, Iconeum wrote:Also how is my role not bastard?

People outside of the game can communicate with me

Dead players can interact with the game

What's making you question the bastard element exactly?
Bastard seems to mean "bastard mod" like "the mod is a bastard for putting this in the game." Just communication after death doesn't seem like it's in that vein. Unless you can get dreams from scum, or you're getting some info that might or might not be reliable. Has that been a thing?

Cyrus as far as how is Shos helping the town, off the top of my head he has posted a lot on a number of topics and doesn't seem to disappear.

Vork I know the post numbers would make it more convenient to pull the posts up, but I'm just trying to summarize and I think dates provide better context. If I only had post numbers nobody would have any sense of what that means. And the posts aren't usually smoking guns or anything. What I might suggest is pulling up PM+anybody isos and see what you think overall.
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Post Post #1402 (isolation #20) » Tue Nov 05, 2019 3:22 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

Icon, you asked my conclusions about the PM interactions. Probably that nom and Chickadee were most plausible as PM partner. (Shos gets a nod but I dunno, it seems wrong to me.) I haven't done a Cyrus-PM post yet. My heart's not really into finishing that though... I think it won't be too conclusive. In the time left I'll either finish it or reread about Drew arguments.

My intention is to vote Nom. I would have done this already except you still haven't finished claiming (name and any info).

The bastard thing doesn't matter so much. Could your role be in the game is one question. (Probably but from a balance perspective it doesn't seem to have much effect.) Aside from that, it's just would you really think that a dreamer role is a bastard role.
Iconeum to Shos wrote:why are you so fixated on lynching what you think is cult, when there's yet NO actual evidence of said cult in game?
I think you could be cult though. Not sure how well your breadcrumbs work out for one thing.

Anyway why would there not be cult? There is more evidence for than against due to Drew's role. I can't believe Drew would have received a role that basically just has to get himself lynched and make everybody talk about cult for a day when actually it's not in the setup at all. It would be a bastard thing for a mod to do but it's also pretty stupid isn't it?

I don't think the reason to not hunt cult is that the cult might not even exist. I don't get that idea.
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Post Post #1404 (isolation #21) » Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:17 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

In post 1363, cyrus62 wrote:however there is one cult .
Should be up to two cult right?

You say there could be two scum and one cult, what could balance that.

An interesting thing is if tomorrow is 2 cult, 1 scum, 2 town. If you lynch scum then I think cult would win? Or draw? Whereas if you lynch cult there, the game might continue. So I think it does matter, who is cult.

Pedit:
I didn't consider the idea of Drew recruiting people into the mafia. Maybe that could be balanced?? If it started out small.

I don't think Drew's flavor is consistent with that idea though.
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Post Post #1406 (isolation #22) » Tue Nov 05, 2019 5:41 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

In post 1395, cyrus62 wrote:lol wow so i was on the wagon that vork may not be scum there for a second untill this post ... but after this post seems super lazy and makes me bump vork back in with nom and shos so theres 2 scum between vork shos and nom and one cult i now see chick me and icon is town game shoved
Well Vork-PM seems unlikely to me but earlier you had a Vork cult theory. In that case Vork's role would have to be recruitable or fake.

Vork is your role good, at least?

About Korina/Shos/Icon: Korina probably couldn't do anything relevant due to the timing of the modkill but that's definitely the most interesting position to ask Icon about. Otherwise all that it is, is RCE/Drew said "hi" to Icon at night and it's not that interesting. That would be baffling, there should be some way Icon's role can be important in the setup.
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Post Post #1408 (isolation #23) » Tue Nov 05, 2019 6:14 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

Hmm.
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Post Post #1418 (isolation #24) » Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:42 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

Ok. Thanks for that.

I do want to point out iffiness here in the crumbing, in case people haven't thought about it.

First crumb is:
In post 112, Iconeum wrote:Because I have a feeling this game goes beyond the grave
But note this thought was not new at the time:
In post 75, RCEnigma wrote:Someone has an invisible vote or Korina is voting gameplay beyond the grave.
And the first person to mention dreams was Chemist. Chemist pretty quickly denied that the dreams were mechanics-related but Icon kept bringing it up, like saying he thought Chemist should claim among last.

To his credit he basically pointed it out:
In post 895, Iconeum wrote:Chemist I'm unsure of. I think he dropped a hint, or it's a gigantic coincidence. This will become clear later on.
Anyway so the conspiracy theory is that Icon knew he would want a claim so he noticed stuff people were saying and repeated it as his own crumbs.

Voting nomnom before deadline.
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Post Post #1520 (isolation #25) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 5:18 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

Some odd last-minute nomnom effort. It seems like survival instinct kicking in. She gave three new suspects to talk about (Icon, Chick, myself). That seems a bit broad (even if the list isn't bad).

To me, a Chickadee lynch has not really seemed worse than Nomnom but it looked like there was a town read of her in general. And I don't have a great case to advance there. Almost every Chickadee post strikes me as off, helpful in a phony way, and I think Chick-PM is pretty possible. Nomnom today (game day) has not been too helpful (until now maybe, I think this does count as helpful) and she was striking me as resigned scum.

I don't think nomnom appeared to be an easy path today though. I think Shos was, and I'm pretty sure Nomnom would have been OK with Shos getting lynched early.

vote: nomnomnom

In post 1486, shos wrote:he fact that PM was detached is correct. This means the only way we can analyze this wagon is by interactions about him, rather than with him.

From this, we can work with who jumped the wagon for credit, and who actually helped this wagon form.
If PM had been a competent player then actions/comments defending him would be more understandable as scum evidence. More so if the efforts seemed effective. I can picture PM's partner more likely concluding he needs to just go and if there are points to be won from the lynch then great.

The lack of most others' doubt of Icon's role (Vork evidently takes it, even you now, you doubted the role but look at the crumbs and seemingly think they are good, do they salvage it?) makes me think maybe I should feel more comfortable. Town Icon has always been believable though.
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Post Post #1523 (isolation #26) » Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:02 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

@cyrus
It could be that... Reading the iso the effort to argue against taking Drew at face value is really something, though I think if Nomnom believed Drew's mechanism to work as described (i.e. randomly), then trying to get people to claim if they're unconvertible seems like it has more value to scum.
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Post Post #1599 (isolation #27) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:45 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

In post 1581, Iconeum wrote:I think i'm gonna have a hard time stopping a Cyrus lynch tomorrow if nommers is actually scum

Hell, if nommers flips scum I'll probably have a hard time stopping Cyrus from being lynched if the game isn't over (which it shouldn't be)
Am I right that these two lines say almost the same thing?
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Post Post #1602 (isolation #28) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:09 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

Chick thinks nom will flip town, and needs to make sure we know because she gave Nom some grief earlier

Or she is cult with Nom and is doing a Shos by steering completely clear of Nom wagon and putting an ineffective vote elsewhere

hehe
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Post Post #1603 (isolation #29) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:18 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

Wow Cyrus really spelled out how he did not think he was hammering!
In post 1524, cyrus62 wrote:
Spoiler:
In post 1523, Kelly Chen wrote:@cyrus
It could be that... Reading the iso the effort to argue against taking Drew at face value is really something, though I think if Nomnom believed Drew's mechanism to work as described (i.e. randomly), then trying to get people to claim if they're unconvertible seems like it has more value to scum.
I HATE GOOD LOGIC LIKE THIS COULD YOU SAY SOMETHING I CAN DISAGREE WITH. however i didnt think nom did that i thought they wanted to see who was all vt and who wasnt but then they did nothing with the information .
so yes you could be right
. there should already be two votes on nom 4 for lynch i will put them to l1VOTE: nomnomnom
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Post Post #1606 (isolation #30) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:26 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

If Nom is cult then definitely I'll keep looking at Chickadee.
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Post Post #1629 (isolation #31) » Mon Nov 11, 2019 3:05 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

If there is still mafia out there I don't know what to think about the cult. I had been thinking 2 out there. With 5 antitown that would mean town was already a minority on day 3 and there would only be 2 town left now.

With two cult, if we lynch scum, we're at even numbers with cult. I think there wouldn't be a clear path for town to win. Running scenarios on my fingers. So if we lynch cult instead, and mafia kills cult, and then town at final 3 lynches the last scum, then that would be a town win.

Not sure if it is even worth thinking about it like this. Maybe there could be fewer than 2 cult or even 0 cult.

I think that Nom-Shos are not scum partners and Shos-Cyrus are not partners. I would suggest that you shouldn't think I was scum with Nomnom. (Nom and Chick were my only targets yesterday and there was not a lot of interest on anyone's part in going after Chickadee.)

Vork should claim... I'm not sure how good his non-scum track record is (could argue he bussed PM for being useless, because he had backup teammate in nom, and only had meaningless friction with nom). But it does seem like town should have a power role other than a medium, doesn't it?

Given the above, going with 1 scum 2 cult left, and me/Vork the only town, then Shos (not paired with Cyrus) would have to be cult with Chickadee leaving Cyrus as mafia, wow.

If Vork is scum or cult then there are more possibilities. Vork-Cyrus team is not so likely. I don't actually think Vork-Nom is likely so Vork would be cult. Partner would have to be Chickadee or Shos. Cyrus or Shos would move to Vork's vacated town slot. So then (if it's Vork-Chick) Cyrus is mafia and Shos is the town, or else (if it's Vork-Shos) maybe Chick is mafia and Cyrus is town. (This is all from my perspective.)

Overall I townread Chickadee least. Not by much maybe. It would help if I could rule out Chick-anybody pairings.
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Post Post #1632 (isolation #32) » Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:48 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

Huh, OK. So let me put out there, unless someone thinks I was scum with Nom, or that Chick is lying about being the ONLY cult, then you should think I'm town.

And Chickadee are you saying you were town on D1?
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Post Post #1634 (isolation #33) » Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:57 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

You mean where I said if Vork-Shos are cult then Chick could be mafia? I don't have a lot of options there.
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Post Post #1635 (isolation #34) » Mon Nov 11, 2019 5:14 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

Actually, I think it's got to be Cyrus now. I don't see a lot to persuade me Cyrus couldn't be scum with PM and Nom.
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Post Post #1639 (isolation #35) » Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:09 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

Sorry, I was TR you but Chick as cult means she is not the mafia, somebody else has to go there. Who can be PM-Nom's partner?
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Post Post #1657 (isolation #36) » Tue Nov 12, 2019 4:29 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

How is it "a" lying townie, aren't you missing about 4.
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Post Post #1663 (isolation #37) » Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:54 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

@Vork We saw maybe 3 bastard roles with an expectation of 7. If there's something bastard about the mafia we could get the number closer, I guess, but I don't know how we can assume that's the case. Makes more sense to wonder about your role being bastard even if you think it isn't. So yeah you should claim already.

Regarding the idea of lynching Chick. It's not as good as scum. But it would prevent the possible scenario where the next two deaths are town, which I think would mean town can't win anymore.
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Post Post #1671 (isolation #38) » Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:51 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

Ok, I see how this role would set some expectations about what other roles are in the game.

Why does it mean lynch Kelly?
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Post Post #1672 (isolation #39) » Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:03 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

Oh so Shos is basically cleared. Well then it has to be cyrus.
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Post Post #1673 (isolation #40) » Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:09 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

Vork is that wrong? It seems like that clears Shos.
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Post Post #1688 (isolation #41) » Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:30 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

I'm going to read cyrus' old games this evening.
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Post Post #1689 (isolation #42) » Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:31 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

I think Shos is right... If we mislynch today, we can't lynch Chickadee at all. Chickadee would have to die at night and it doesn't seem like we can guarantee that. So, probably lynch Chickadee and try to get more info or direct the kill.

Let's say Vork remaps me to Cyrus. Then it seems like these could happen:
1. Cyrus dies. I would look bad but it's not conclusive.
2. I die. Vork/Shos/Cyrus figure it out.
3. Vork or Shos die, I am cleared.

You could do it other ways but the main thing is we would have to know for sure what Vork is planning to do.
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Post Post #1692 (isolation #43) » Wed Nov 13, 2019 5:03 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

Your example just shows you don't get hard guilties. If there's only one killer you can get clears.
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Post Post #1693 (isolation #44) » Wed Nov 13, 2019 5:22 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

Vork the insight you provide would stem from the town knowing what you're going to do N5. You would tell us that today.
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Post Post #1696 (isolation #45) » Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:11 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

Good question but you can't really aim for it that way. You're going to get an array of possibilities. Kelly -> Cyrus seems good to me but I will take some time to write them all out. Should be 3*2 possibilities unless you can redirect to yourself. Can you redirect to yourself?
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Post Post #1698 (isolation #46) » Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:21 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

We can't lynch you IF we mislynch today.

Claiming wasn't stupid at all, I guess the gratitude isn't showing but you hugely helped town with that.
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Post Post #1701 (isolation #47) » Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:56 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

Cyrus if we have 1:1:1 tomorrow then town can't win. Draw with cult is all that might be possible.
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Post Post #1706 (isolation #48) » Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:04 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

Vork said he can use scum to hit town. But he couldn't use a vig to hit anybody.
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Post Post #1707 (isolation #49) » Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:09 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

It's probably done that way just so Vork could not control Drew...
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Post Post #1709 (isolation #50) » Wed Nov 13, 2019 10:34 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

These should be the basic 6 options.

Obviously all of the below assumes Vork is town and can be used to get clears! If these are NOT true then it's not clear how much the decision matters. It might still have some impact.

I liked Kelly -> Cyrus best but it sort of looks like it's biased against Cyrus. So I can live with Cyrus -> Kelly too. The difference there really is, if the below logic slaps an untrue guilty on somebody, do you want that guilty to be on me or on Cyrus?

The worst option is redirecting Shos again because this yields no conclusion if Vork or Shos are NKed.

Kelly to Cyrus:
1. Cyrus dies. Vork/Shos/Kelly alive, Kelly should be scum.
2. Kelly dies. Vork/Shos/Cyrus alive, Cyrus should be scum.
3. Vork dies, Kelly is cleared. Kelly/Shos/Cyrus alive. Cyrus should be scum.
4. Shos dies, Kelly is cleared. Kelly/Vork/Cyrus alive. Cyrus should be scum.

Cyrus to Kelly:
1. Kelly dies. Vork/Shos/Cyrus alive, Cyrus should be scum.
2. Cyrus dies. Vork/Shos/Kelly alive, Kelly should be scum.
3. Vork dies, Cyrus is cleared. Kelly/Cyrus/Shos alive, Kelly should be scum.
4. Shos dies, Cyrus is cleared. Kelly/Cyrus/Vork alive, Kelly should be scum.

Kelly to Shos:
1. Shos dies. Kelly/Vork/Cyrus alive, scum could be Kelly/Cyrus.
2. Kelly dies. Vork/Cyrus/Shos alive, Cyrus should be scum.
3. Vork dies, Kelly is cleared. Kelly/Cyrus/Shos alive, Cyrus should be scum.
4. Cyrus dies, Kelly is cleared. Vork/Kelly/Shos final three, something has gone wrong here.

Shos to Kelly:
1. Kelly dies. Vork/Shos/Cyrus alive, Cyrus should be scum.
2. Shos dies. Cyrus/Vork/Kelly alive, scum could be Cyrus/Kelly.
3. Cyrus dies, Shos is cleared again. Shos/Kelly/Vork alive, Kelly should be scum.
4. Vork dies, Shos is cleared again. Shos/Kelly/Cyrus alive, scum could be Kelly/Cyrus.

Cyrus to Shos:
1. Shos dies. Cyrus/Kelly/Vork alive, scum could be Cyrus/Kelly.
2. Cyrus dies. Vork/Kelly/Shos alive, Kelly should be scum.
3. Vork dies, Cyrus is cleared. Kelly/Cyrus/Shos alive, Kelly should be scum.
4. Kelly dies, Cyrus is cleared. Shos/Cyrus/Vork final three, something has gone wrong here.

Shos to Cyrus:
1. Cyrus dies. Shos/Kelly/Vork alive, Kelly should be scum.
2. Shos dies. Kelly/Vork/Cyrus alive, scum could be Kelly/Cyrus.
3. Kelly dies, Shos is cleared again. Vork/Cyrus/Shos alive, Cyrus should be scum.
4. Vork dies, Shos is cleared again. Kelly/Cyrus/Shos alive, scum could be Kelly/Cyrus.
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Post Post #1711 (isolation #51) » Wed Nov 13, 2019 11:11 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

@cyrus
In post 1708, cyrus62 wrote:so kelly what do you think of the day one vote counts and the fact that your still here wouldn't that fit the text of truth and pm was trying to say it wasn't the text of truth which would basically be scum covering for their partner?
@mod was that the text of truth in all of day 1s vote counts saying ?? was town?
It was text of truth, you can quote and look at it.

Here's what I think, looking back at it.

Thread lock (Korina modkill) was post 583/584.
In 589 Vork says hey the vote on gameplay is gone, so it must be Korina and they're really gone.
Then nobody talks about gameplay.
In 621 PM brings up gameplay. PM concludes Korina was town and says maybe he could ONLY vote for gameplay. That's no defense.
Then 624 is the post you're talking about. It's a confusing post, I'm not sure what PM was questioning. Something about text of truth being green, whether Korina was actually modkilled if it wasn't written in text of truth.
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Post Post #1713 (isolation #52) » Wed Nov 13, 2019 11:21 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

In post 1710, Vorkuta wrote:This is a high effort post.

What do I do again?
I can't really tell if you're trying to take some attitude with me, you have a role, we're trying to figure out how to use it. Your doubts about whether it can actually be used to clear anybody seem super speculative. I see nothing to lose in trying to do this, since it doesn't change who we would lynch today.

If you're asking a serious question, then you should redirect Cyrus to Kelly. That is my proposal, does anyone want to comment on it?
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Post Post #1716 (isolation #53) » Wed Nov 13, 2019 12:53 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

It's not a waste Cyrus. If you are town, and Vork remaps you to me, and I do not die, it means you are cleared. That's great for town

Redirecting me to hit Chick only works (to kill Chick) if you are 100% sure I am scum. I'm not though. And Chick dying would not prove I was scum because it could be that YOU killed Chick. So, let's not try to do that. And lynching you today is a bad plan too I think.

I really can't think why anybody, including Chick, should be opposed to lynching Chick today. I know Chick will say we should hunt scum instead, but we should get some info from tonight, which will hopefully improve our lynch accuracy tomorrow.
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Post Post #1720 (isolation #54) » Wed Nov 13, 2019 2:25 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

For the Cyrus -> Kelly plan:
In post 1717, cyrus62 wrote:and if im nk?
If you die that will suggest Kelly scum. Because the alternatives are Vork and Shos.
In post 1718, cyrus62 wrote:and what if shos is scum and kills you? or vork
There is an assumption that Vork and Shos aren't scum. So if I get NKed that will make you look bad. But it also means I'm town, so nobody has to consider voting me. You/Vork/Shos will just have to figure it out.

I'm not saying people should accept that Vork and Shos are not scum. We should just choose the best possible redirect option for getting whatever info we might be able to get.
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Post Post #1727 (isolation #55) » Thu Nov 14, 2019 4:23 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

In post 1721, cyrus62 wrote:
In post 1720, Kelly Chen wrote:I'm not saying people should accept that Vork and Shos are not scum. We should just choose the best possible redirect option for getting whatever info we might be able to get.
the best ones where vork aims you at chick if chick dies we know your scum if he don't and you or vork die its shos so lynch me.
Seems like you want to risk the game just to be nice to Chickadee for claiming. If we lynch you and Chick doesn't die, town win is gone.

Chickadee said she wants to help town win, and she did that.
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Post Post #1728 (isolation #56) » Thu Nov 14, 2019 4:29 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

In post 1724, shos wrote:Since I think Kelly is town, it is best if he redirects Kelly to Cyrus. That way in the case where Cyrus survives we get a Kelly conftown.

Surely I will die though
So it'll be vork v Cyrus 1v1, or, if Cyrus does, vork v kelly
Ok. I don't think I will get Cyrus to come around and express an opinion from the list, nor Chickadee.

So the difference between the options is do you want more suspicion to be on me or on Cyrus when we BOTH survive the night. Also, maybe, which one of us is more likely to live. Kelly -> Cyrus might make it more likely that Cyrus dies I guess.
In post 1709, Kelly Chen wrote:Kelly to Cyrus:
3. Vork dies, Kelly is cleared. Kelly/Shos/Cyrus alive. Cyrus should be scum.
4. Shos dies, Kelly is cleared. Kelly/Vork/Cyrus alive. Cyrus should be scum.

Cyrus to Kelly:
3. Vork dies, Cyrus is cleared. Kelly/Cyrus/Shos alive, Kelly should be scum.
4. Shos dies, Cyrus is cleared. Kelly/Cyrus/Vork alive, Kelly should be scum.
Vork do you want to discuss or can you agree to submit Kelly -> Cyrus?
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Post Post #1729 (isolation #57) » Thu Nov 14, 2019 6:21 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

Cyrus has done this bit as scum:
In post 656, cyrus62 wrote:VOTE: cyrus62 here i will help the flip to show im town can we all just vote me so we can get a move on maybe after my flip you all can look for real scum.
In post 665, cyrus62 wrote:
In post 663, rosterfoster wrote:And currently YOU are voting YOURSELF
if it proves i'm town like last time then you can look at my wagon for the scum i dont see any other way.
Then he unvotes himself, people fight about whether this behavior is more of a town tell than scum, and he gets caught changing his claim and gets lynched.

His current behavior doesn't make sense to me for any alignment, but a scum-Cyrus theory could be that he's laying it on thick now to earn town points without much risk that he will actually get lynched today over it. So, if Cyrus is alive tomorrow maybe keep an eye out for this, like a change in his behavior.
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Post Post #1735 (isolation #58) » Thu Nov 14, 2019 8:47 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

He's just taking it to an extreme I think, he knows even if he claims scum he will not get lynched today. Super weird.

vote: Chickadee
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Post Post #1738 (isolation #59) » Thu Nov 14, 2019 9:15 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

Yeah my town read on Vork is mostly due to the role and PM/Nom considerations, not really the content of his posts.

Cyrus' erratic posts is what has been giving me the town read on him actually... That's why I looked up the older games
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Post Post #1743 (isolation #60) » Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:33 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

I don't get it, if you're town and I'm scum then you're going to get NKed tonight. What's the problem? You want to be alive on the last day?

Of everyone minus you and Chick I think I trust myself the most. :)
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Post Post #1747 (isolation #61) » Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:03 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

That just leaves me and Shos though.
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Post Post #1749 (isolation #62) » Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:10 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

I assumed you meant Vork.
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Post Post #1754 (isolation #63) » Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:56 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

So you voting nom is "a hell of a bus" but you won't give me points for nom even though you say I persuaded you to vote her (as the last vote).

Also you didn't seem to want the PM lynch. You're there but again, the last vote. (After saying "this makes me want to vote pm" you still said "i think pm is a bad lynch")

I get that process of elimination leads to me/you, that's why we're doing the redirection thing.

pedit I got ninjad.
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Post Post #1759 (isolation #64) » Thu Nov 14, 2019 1:06 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

In post 1755, cyrus62 wrote:so if kelly dies im scum? then vote me now gee yep this is stupid .
If I die are you NOT scum? What will you say if tomorrow is you/Vork/Shos
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Post Post #1764 (isolation #65) » Thu Nov 14, 2019 8:07 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

In post 1761, Chickadee wrote:Why did we hash out who to redirect? If we’re wrong, scum just kills to frame it how they want it to look anyway.
In all cases the plan either clears me or kills Cyrus, either one will help.
I’ve largely checked out of this game, hopefully understandably. You guys aren’t gonna let me live anyway.
If you're just playing for town win then you should see that we maximize our odds if you go now.
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Post Post #1776 (isolation #66) » Fri Nov 15, 2019 3:09 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

Ok, glad that part's over. Not sure why I care but I'm disappointed/stunned we couldn't get 5/5 agreement on that.

btw Shos is sort of cleared no matter what. Either Vork is town and cleared him, or Vork is scum and Shos is still pretty much clear, because Vork/Shos won't both be scum. The only way it's town Vork and scum Shos is if we made bad assumptions about the role, like Vork was worried.
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Post Post #1777 (isolation #67) » Fri Nov 15, 2019 3:17 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

In post 1733, cyrus62 wrote:i am scum sp lynch me to lynch the last scum and aim kelly at chick.
So how come these posts did not have a self-vote even though you have self-voted in this same game already?
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Post Post #1779 (isolation #68) » Fri Nov 15, 2019 3:50 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

Yeah sorry guys, I really wanted gameplay to be town so that's how I played it.


I had some things wrong. Shos was cult?? Does that explain why last day Chickadee felt wrong? Like really not aiming to help the town.

I assumed Korina was VT and that all VTs were death millers if lynched but not if NKd. And that all VTs could vote from beyond the grave and send dreams to Iconeum, but nobody ever wanted to. I assumed THIS was how the setup was meant to be balanced: Dead VTs would still control the game and expose the millerness to Iconeum.

Was I supposed to know anything about being a godfather? Vork and I were not sure how we would flip if lynched.
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Post Post #1782 (isolation #69) » Fri Nov 15, 2019 3:53 am

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oh I see. I was trying to think if Shos' play today made much sense as cult.

With Chickadee-Shos aligned that would be really dicey.
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Post Post #1784 (isolation #70) » Fri Nov 15, 2019 4:06 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

Ok, so Chickadee did have a win path, non-exclusive of town win, but she didn't know about it.

I have long foreseen town/cult were going to be really mad about this game :?

I think I will write up some memoirs from the scum PT
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Post Post #1787 (isolation #71) » Fri Nov 15, 2019 4:17 am

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The bad thing here is that if Drew's optimal play is supposed to be to get lynched then, jester concerns aside, one should not expect any cult to be recruited in this setup.

Vork and I assumed PM was probably a death miller, and not a traitor or something. But we could never tell the town anything like that. And I think town could never speculate about it because it would leave no means to try to hunt scum.
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Post Post #1796 (isolation #72) » Fri Nov 15, 2019 4:52 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

I don't need to redact anything from scum PT, really would be happy to have people see it...
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Post Post #1802 (isolation #73) » Fri Nov 15, 2019 5:23 am

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Wow, the dead PT is pretty neat, I had no idea. I wasn't ready for it when PM showed up, hahaha

Icon, the expected weakness (or implausibility of the claim) of your role is part of why you didn't die a night earlier. The other is that I thought your death would put pressure on Vork to claim, which is the recurring drama in the scum PT

When we killed you, we felt forced because we thought Nomnom could tell you via dream that he was not scum. And this could be confirmed if Nomnom moved his death vote around. I hoped to claim at least that the conftown vote was coming from Icon.
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Post Post #1803 (isolation #74) » Fri Nov 15, 2019 5:24 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

*her, sorry
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Post Post #1813 (isolation #75) » Fri Nov 15, 2019 6:47 am

Post by Kelly Chen »

You had good reads Korina
In post 1804, shos wrote:Just got through the scum PT. scum deserve the win. town doesn't desreve the loss
I appreciate it.
In post 1805, nomnomnom wrote:I actually called Vorkuta scum correctly day 1.

Once again my curse strikes with that modkill lol
Sorry about you losing your never-town-lynched status. I was really worried about you and wanted you gone, FWIW.
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Post Post #1821 (isolation #76) » Fri Nov 15, 2019 7:01 am

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In post 1819, cyrus62 wrote:thanks alot kelly and shos for my 1st lost.
Vork not Shos.
Hehe sorry. You were quite an obstacle. In scum PT I mentioned you as a NK possibility more than once

I really thought I could convince you to vote Chickadee though. (I was afraid Shos would change his mind)
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Post Post #1832 (isolation #77) » Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:47 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

In post 1827, popsofctown wrote:I think it is very cool that Kelly Chen is an 05er who is actively playing.
Thanks for noticing, this is my first game since Mini Theme 810, over 10 years ago...
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Post Post #1839 (isolation #78) » Fri Nov 15, 2019 6:16 pm

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We could have lynched Cyrus instead but his scum claim didn't come with a self-vote. What a tease.
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Post Post #1846 (isolation #79) » Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:23 am

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Did you prepare text for Iconeum dreams or would the text have come from the players sending them?

Was trying to think what would be the worst role-related danger of letting Iconeum live to the last day and NKing Shos/Cyrus instead. It seems like there was no risk like that, except I'm not totally clear what's the maximum info Iconeum could have received that night.
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Post Post #1850 (isolation #80) » Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:56 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

That was very strange. On entering the game I briefly considered making a role claim based on that, before I even realized Icon was crumbing dreams or going to claim something dream-related.
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Post Post #1851 (isolation #81) » Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:03 pm

Post by Kelly Chen »

In post 1847, Not Known 15 wrote:"You had a pleasant dream about nomnomnom"
Interesting to speculate if the latter would have influenced Icon.
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