Undertale Semi-Open 1.1 - Snowdin Snowdown

[mastina]

We identify four townies and win. Townhunting is better than scumhunting and this playerlist is good for application

Agree with this and will give it a go when I have more time to spare. (Currently have other obligations that require my attention more than a game which started literally just today.)

[mastina]

Gonna let you know: am slightly sick now and a little bit busy, so can't play now. I

should

have a chance either tomorrow or Thursday tho so that'll be when I get to townbinning people.

[mastina]

Hi

Town.

Also PR should claim and get spared but that's a later issue

Uh...wouldn't the PR just die? Because if you spare the PR, then regardless of their power role they can't use it, so you can't spare them and yet if I understand the setup scum still have a nightkill, so...wouldn't the PR just eat a bullet or become a glorified VT?

[mastina]

HEAL: chennis

Town?

HEAL: chennisden

[mastina]

now you have players like nacho and mastina here tho.

Pretty much this yeah. I'm typically better at townhunting than scumhunting. I mean, yes, there's also usually 1-2 scum (depending on game size) which I call town, but MOST of the players I call town are usually in fact town. (Then again there's an alternative explanation to that; more players in any given game are town. )

[mastina]

mastina sure its hard for me too

I don't know why people keep saying this when I literally wrote a flowchart that remains accurate to this day.

[mastina]

I don't understand how apparently eveyone except me can be obvtown. My scum game is so obvious to see. I'm so much more passive and less erratic.

sorry but did you not read anything from last version of this game

Sure you can be town, too.

[mastina]

HEAL: mastina

Blatant pocketing attempt detected.
Detector dismissed, pocketing allowed through. <3

[mastina]

are you defending yourself for being absent mastina?
++ scum points

I know this is meant to rile me up because you know my answer but for some reason I'm too chill right now this game to give the obligatory rant. Might be because I know you're doing that specifically to try and poke at me since you know the rant all too well.

[mastina]

she needs to be town first

I mean I already am pretty obviously town so. Not a problem there.

[mastina]

like tbf right now im not feeling scumvibes from anyone that's posting, even gingie got better after posting
Nacho and mastina need to do things before i declare them poe scum

Won't be around for a while yet but if you get to the point where I'm POE scum then you might wanna double back and check your work

Town! <3

[mastina]

im saying pacifist is bad as long as there's one competent scum

Only if the scum is more competent than a sufficiently large pool of town.

Doesn't matter if there's a competent scum if said competent scum is never spared.

[mastina]

Spare these townies:

chennisden
Wisdom
Nachomamma8

Town enough:

Chemist
Ginngie

Various degrees of not a townread:

Elements
Xayah
Oversoul
Rakan
Nymph

Mind you--I haven't really tried to generate scumreads. Scum would be in the not-townreads, but I don't particularly care to try and figure out the particulars of who the exact scum are yet. Because I am a hippie who loves peace and pacifism and would prefer townhunting to scumhunting.

[mastina]

@mastina:

How is Rakan not town from his Oversoul interactions?

What's town about them? I saw hyper-aggression. If I knew who Rakan was maybe I'd be able to judge that hyper-aggression in the context of "oh for Rakan that's town" or "oh for Rakan that's scum" but lacking that knowledge all I can really say is that in isolation nothing about it was town. Would Rakan be my vote if I were interested in genocide/neutral? Oh heck no. (Okay, so I can't outright rule it out, but I can say that almost certainly? Probably not.) But while Rakan's not someone I'm interested in lynching, he's also not someone I see any reason to save, either.

[mastina]

People I am comfortable with getting some sweet sweet death all lie in the Xayah/Mastina/Chemist group, although Chemist is the only person I would consider killing now (and that cld be unfair because I don't actually know him).

Nacho. </3

[mastina]

And it's probably pretty hypocritical but I'm sad Mastina hasn't projected town harder yet considering she's my ideal candidate for a D1 spare simply because she would be the best to put in work to the PT and develop preliminary thoughts before she got company

I mean I'm pretty transparently town here but if you want to spare me when it becomes even MORE painfully obvious my answer is HECK no. I've no desire to be spared unless we are in fact going full pacifist--and if we are in fact going full pacifist, then I should be the last one sent in. Not the first. And if we don't go full pacifist, then screw sparing me, I'm much more useful here, trust me on that.

[mastina]

@mastina:

How is Rakan not town from his Oversoul interactions?

What's town about them? I saw hyper-aggression. If I knew who Rakan was maybe I'd be able to judge that hyper-aggression in the context of "oh for Rakan that's town" or "oh for Rakan that's scum" but lacking that knowledge all I can really say is that in isolation nothing about it was town. Would Rakan be my vote if I were interested in genocide/neutral? Oh heck no. (Okay, so I can't outright rule it out, but I can say that almost certainly? Probably not.) But while Rakan's not someone I'm interested in lynching, he's also not someone I see any reason to save, either.

I never played with you before but this doesn't sound like a genuine response from the whole Rakan situation considering you almost completely ignored it until I asked you about it.

HURT: mastina

Why would I address it? I'm town hunting, not scumhunting. Rakan's hyper aggressive posting as far as I know doesn't make him town. So if it doesn't make him town and my priority is townhunting…why WOULD I comment on it? I have no reason to.

[mastina]

I disagree with the Chemist scum read Nacho and think that you’re scumreading it very odd. You’re nornally good at nuanced reads when it comes to bad town I feel like.

Re: Chemist:

If I have been exposed to his scumgame, I don't remember it. (I kinda feel like at some point, I was, but I sure as fuck don't remember it.)

But what I can say is this; this looks like the same Chemist that I have seen in like 3ish give or take town games, and even if I had no such experience, he looks town just from this game alone ignoring meta of his past town games which I think resemble his play here.

The main reason that he's not even stronger town is for precisely the reason I said above: I have never seen what his scumgame is, so I don't know what is personality/playstyle versus what is alignment indicative for him.

[mastina]

Too tired for content tonight, will contribute tomorrow.

[mastina]

Spare Votecount 1.<3

chennisden ----

(2)

Chemist1422, mastina

Ginngie --------

(1)

Ginngie

Rakan ----------

(4)

Wisdom, Nymph, Elements, chennisden, Rakan, Oversoul

Wisdom --------

(1)

Nachomamma8

Not sparing:

- (1) Xayah

Great going, guys.
You fucking spared half the scumteam on fucking day one.

Now we have literally no fucking choice other than to go neutral because yeah we can't win pacifist now.

VOTE: Nymph

[mastina]

Spare Votecount 1.<3

chennisden ----

(2)

Chemist1422, mastina

Ginngie --------

(1)

Ginngie

Rakan ----------

(4)

Wisdom, Nymph, Elements, chennisden, Rakan, Oversoul

Wisdom --------

(1)

Nachomamma8

Not sparing:

- (1) Xayah

Great going, guys.
You fucking spared half the scumteam on fucking day one.

Now we have literally no fucking choice other than to go neutral because yeah we can't win pacifist now.

VOTE: Nymph

Okay so technically speaking.
There's a minimum of 20% chance of having spared scum on D1, and thus only a theoretically-14.28571428571429% chance of lynching scum, pragmatically-25% chance of lynching scum.
Which means there's an 80% chance of theoretically having spared town on D1, and thus having a pragmatically-50% chance of lynching scum, theoretically-28.57142857142857% chance.

But Rakan was scum and you're all fucking morons for not fucking sparing chennisden.

[mastina]

Fucking chen? No way. So I'm like ???

What's this?
Surprise that THE FUCKING PERSON WHO BY ALL FUCKING RIGHTS SHOULD HAVE BEEN FUCKING SPARED YESTERDAY was the scum's NIGHTKILL?



Of course chennisden was the fucking nightkill. You know why? Because no fucking shit, he was the person who we should've fucking spared on D1 until the blatantly scumdriven Rakan sparewagon MAGICALLY somehow went through.

[mastina]

Spoiler: State of the Game

1 Nachomamma8	Nacho	Elements	chennisden	mastina	Ginngie	Xayah	Oversoul	Rakan	Wisdom	Chemist	Nymph
2 Elements	Nacho	Elements	chennisden	mastina	Ginngie	Xayah	Oversoul	Rakan	Wisdom	Chemist	Nymph
3 chennisden	Nacho	Elements	chennisden	mastina	Ginngie	Xayah	Oversoul	Rakan	Wisdom	Chemist	Nymph
4 mastina	Nacho	Elements	chennisden	mastina	Ginngie	Xayah	Oversoul	Rakan	Wisdom	Chemist	Nymph
5 Ginngie	Nacho	Elements	chennisden	mastina	Ginngie	Xayah	Oversoul	Rakan	Wisdom	Chemist	Nymph
6 Xayah	Nacho	Elements	chennisden	mastina	Ginngie	Xayah	Oversoul	Rakan	Wisdom	Chemist	Nymph
7 Oversoul	Nacho	Elements	chennisden	mastina	Ginngie	Xayah	Oversoul	Rakan	Wisdom	Chemist	Nymph
8 Rakan	Nacho	Elements	chennisden	mastina	Ginngie	Xayah	Oversoul	Rakan	Wisdom	Chemist	Nymph
9 Wisdom	Nacho	Elements	chennisden	mastina	Ginngie	Xayah	Oversoul	Rakan	Wisdom	Chemist	Nymph
10 Chemist	Nacho	Elements	chennisden	mastina	Ginngie	Xayah	Oversoul	Rakan	Wisdom	Chemist	Nymph
11 Nymph	Nacho	Elements	chennisden	mastina	Ginngie	Xayah	Oversoul	Rakan	Wisdom	Chemist	Nymph

Green: Explicit in thread support for town
Yellow: Explicit in thread null read or N/A interactions
Red: Explicit in thread support for scum

mastina has a policy of dont kill anyone that scumreads you. Source: her unending wisdom in Civ 5 mafia, was on that team and was instructed by her on this core philosophy.

Now, looking at the state of the game, mastina and chenn have similar reads, and chenn was the only person to actually explicitly townread mastina. That makes the perfect kill for "paints my scumreads in bad light," and satisfying the condition of not killing a townie that scumreads you.

Oh fuck off Ginngie.
You do NOT get to fucking call me scum here.

[mastina]

Various degrees of not a townread:

Elements
Xayah
Oversoul
Rakan
Nymph

Of these, Elements is the one who I am most willing to consider town; Oversoul isn't that far behind.
If I had been scumhunting on D1 (I was as I said, explicitly giving zero fucks about scumhunting), that would leave three names for two scum:
Xayah, Rakan, and Nymph.

Spare Votecount 1.<3

Rakan ----------

(4)

Wisdom, Nymph, Elements, chennisden, Rakan, Oversoul

Not sparing:

- (1) Xayah

Literally the only one of my not-townreads who didn't vote to heal Rakan yesterday was Xayah. Between that and MariaR naturally being scummy as town more often than not, if you factor in the above of Elements being who I am most willing to consider town and Oversoul not that far behind, ya know what that leaves?

Oh yeah.

A scumteam of Rakan and Nymph.
And guess who you fucks.
Decided to fucking spare.
Off of posts I fucking told you weren't fucking town indicative.

[mastina]

Never participated and then complains about what we did

I did fucking participate.
I told you to fucking spare chennisden. I told you that Rakan wasn't fucking town. I told you he wasn't town for what he did. I told you that chennisden was.

So damn fucking straight I get to fucking complain because you fucking spared scum against my fucking wishes.

[mastina]

We identify four townies and win. Townhunting is better than scumhunting and this playerlist is good for application

Agree with this and will give it a go when I have more time to spare. (Currently have other obligations that require my attention more than a game which started literally just today.)

"We should townhunt".

Hi

Town.

"chennisden is town".

HEAL: chennis

Town?
HEAL: chennisden

"I support healing chennisden".

Spare these townies:

chennisden
Wisdom
Nachomamma8

Town enough:

Chemist
Ginngie

Various degrees of not a townread:

Elements
Xayah
Oversoul
Rakan
Nymph

Mind you--I haven't really tried to generate scumreads. Scum would be in the not-townreads, but I don't particularly care to try and figure out the particulars of who the exact scum are yet. Because I am a hippie who loves peace and pacifism and would prefer townhunting to scumhunting.

"Rakan is not a townread".

@mastina:

How is Rakan not town from his Oversoul interactions?

What's town about them? I saw hyper-aggression. If I knew who Rakan was maybe I'd be able to judge that hyper-aggression in the context of "oh for Rakan that's town" or "oh for Rakan that's scum" but lacking that knowledge all I can really say is that in isolation nothing about it was town. Would Rakan be my vote if I were interested in genocide/neutral? Oh heck no. (Okay, so I can't outright rule it out, but I can say that almost certainly? Probably not.) But while Rakan's not someone I'm interested in lynching, he's also not someone I see any reason to save, either.

"What's town about Rakan's content? I saw hyperaggression but that hyperaggression doesn't make him town."

Why would I address it? I'm town hunting, not scumhunting. Rakan's hyper aggressive posting as far as I know doesn't make him town. So if it doesn't make him town and my priority is townhunting…why WOULD I comment on it? I have no reason to.

"I'm townhunting, not scumhunting. Rakan's posting isn't town."

[mastina]

Just because you fucking ignored what I said and went against my fucking desires doesn't mean you can pretend I didn't fucking contribute because I did.

[mastina]

so far nymph and gingie are on my radar for awkward entrances

towny mindmeld

I don't see how Nymph can be considered awkward from her posting so far, I don't agree with this, so weird "mindmeld" in my opinion

Defense of Nymph.

OK. If you want something more substantive, you'll need to explain why you think Nymph's early posts were awkward then.

More defense of Nymph.

Nymph isnt a slot i particularly have a lean on

Generally I'm a very hard slot to read.

Which means you're a good choice for a slot to spare

IMO we shouldn't spare people we know are town, since on the neutral route we get told how many scum are within a group of people

Defense Nymph. Also, says "we shouldn't spare people we know are town".
He voted to spare himself.
If he were town, he violated his own stance because he'd know himself to be town.

We're either fighting or sparing Oversoul today.

"Oversoul must leave by one method or another today".
And yet he ended up sparing himself.

I tr Wisdom and Xayah

If Nymph wasn't a townread, then why was he defending Nymph?

[mastina]

You said you didn’t think he was town for what others said

I said this, yes!

And then said you didn’t want him dead or saved, essentially null.

I did not say this!
I said that I was townhunting, not scumhunting. I said I had zero interest in sorting ANY of the names I had as "varying degrees of not town", Rakan among them. I said I wanted to go pacifist so I wanted to do nothing but save. That does not mean "I neither want Rakan fought nor saved". That was saying exactly what I fucking said.

"I want nobody fought" and "Rakan is not someone to save" != "I want Rakan neither fought nor saved".

Blanket reads are not content, and you didn’t aggressively push anything, you just let town do it’s own thing

Okay Ginngie absolute fuck you.

I know you're fucking town here but this posting is so disingenuous that I really fucking wish you were scum because this is something that you should NEVER be fucking saying about me on every level and yet somehow here you are.

[mastina]

Like you can say you objected to it, but you can’t tell me with a straight face that your ISO screams defense of chennis or pushing Raken scum/Nymph

Yes I fucking can and when you stop fucking around you fucking can too because YOU HAVE FUCKING PLAYED WITH ME BEFORE and you're fucking pretending you haven't with this bullshit.

Like.

I am seriously.
Seriously.
Just thinking.
"Maybe Ginngie's scum."
And you know what's keeping me from that?

It's not, "But I thought Ginngie was town D1".
It's not, "But other people including Nacho think Ginngie is town".
It's purely just because I think the fucking scumteam is exactly Rakan-Nymph and I swear to fucking god if this were a three scum game you'd be my fucking third because you are playing like a fucking scumfuck.

[mastina]

I'll join if I can't get my mastina lynch.

I mean you already got your scumbuddy spared so keep dreamin'! You might very well just get that game-winning mislynch going!

[mastina]

HEAL: Oversoul
I'll bite.

[mastina]

srsly now?

As I was GOING to say before SOMEONE decided to lolhammer Nacho and cause the thread to be locked literally five minutes before I could post...

Yes, seriously.

We don't have Toriel--if we did, then chennisden would've lived through N1.
We couldn't use the vig due to D1 and the vig is a role which shouldn't have been used anyway.

So that meant that there was only one possible, and useful, role; the even night cop.

This was one of the reasons why on D2 I was advocating for the lynch, because the even night cop isn't going to live through today and tonight. So literally the only chance the even night cop would get to investigated was N2.

Except...
...We fucking spared on D2, so the even night cop couldn't act.
So, if we weren't going to use the even night cop and had healed twice.
We should've just committed and all-inned on going for the pacifist ending.

Hurting yesterday was stupid, especially given one crucial factor which would've made the pacifist ending viable:
Nymph was the nightkill.
Nymph was a player I am pretty sure nobody in the game was townreading--and in fact, I was strongly scumreading Nymph and was trying to lynch Nymph.
Yet the scum killed Nymph, who wasn't being townread by anyone and who I would've happily mislynched.
So the question becomes...why kill Nymph?

The only answer that I can come up with is, "scum were PR hunting".
But again, the question would be...with two spares, WHY would scum be PR hunting, especially if one scum was already spared? They're not dumb, they knew there wasn't a doctor because their chennisden nightkill succeeded when it wouldn't have with any doctor in the game.
They knew that whoever the PR was, due to the D2 spare, they were worthless.
The only thing the PR would give would be, themselves being conftown.

Why would scum be particularly afraid of conftown?

If they were worried that the town could pull off a pacifist victory.
Which means.
In spite of my concern.
Rakan's town.
And Ginngie's obviously also town.
Which meant that yesterday, if we spared town and our PR lived to see today...we'd have won the game in the pacifist route.

Which is why I wanted to spare Oversoul.
Regardless of Nacho's alignment, Oversoul was going to be town.
If Nacho was scum, he wasn't going to be hard-advocating for the spare of his scumbuddy especially knowing that there would be a scum revealed when reaching the core since he wouldn't also be spared.
If Nacho was town, like I thought he was (he was my strongest townread), then his case was one which I believe has merit.

So, yes.
This means that right now.
I think Oversoul is town.
I know I am town.
And I fully believe that the two scum are in {Xayah, Elements, Chemist}.

So.
HEAL: Oversoul.
I believe we do this, reveal that we had zero scum spared, and if we have a cop have them investigate in the above three, and lynch from there after reaching the core.

[mastina]

Mastina let me know when you're around. I want to talk to you in live conversation because going back and forth on walls is gonna be bleh and something I don't care for

Live conversation is an honor reserved for players who I have a desire to engage in live conversation with.

It is otherwise something I deliberately avoid.

If you had done something which gave me a desire to engage you in live conversation, I'd consider it--but for basically the whole game you've been doing the literal opposite of what I wanted.
On D1 you refused to spare.
On D2 you spared Ginngie when I wanted to fight.
On D3, you lynched my strongest townread when I wanted to spare.

What can you give me in live conversation that will change that?
You can very easily convince me that the two scum are Elements/Chemist.
You could maybe convince me that my original scumread on Rakan was right even though I think my logic surrounding why he's town is sound.
You could maybe convince me to fight instead of spare.
But you won't be convincing me that Oversoul is scum.
And as long as Oversoul is town.
I don't see a reason to not spare him.

[mastina]

We've played together before and even worked well together before

I seem to recall that the one and only time that happened, we were both scum of different factions in a multiball game.

I want to have a live conversation because it's the best way I can get to read you.

Well I honestly don't see the point in spending time to get you to read me. I'm not getting lynched today and since I don't even want to be spared (I want to spare Oversoul), I don't see why having you townread me would be a priority. If you vote me, I'm not getting lynched; if you don't spare me because you're not townreading me, that's actually my preference.

Basically I don't see the reason why I'd need to let you have a read on me.

The one and only reason why I'd want you to have a read on me is if you having a read on me gets you to spare Oversoul.
If as a result of you having a read on me, beit townread or scumread, you spared Oversoul? Sure, yeah, putting in that effort is a worthy investment on my part.
But if you having a read on me determines whether you vote me or don't, or if you having a read on me determines whether you spare me or don't, well, the former won't lead to my lynch and the latter isn't something I even want. So I don't see a reason for it.

[mastina]

Mastina, why would you not want to be spared today? If you think the two currently spared are town it clears all three of you as town - perspective from town you. No one shouldn't want to be the spare today. So why don't you want to be spared?

Simple, really.
I know my own alignment.
If we were going full pacifist, yes, I'd spare myself…

…But because a certain SOMEONE decided to fucking hammer Nacho, that option is no longer available.

If we could win by sparing four town, I'd want to spare myself. But because SOMEONE decided to fucking LYNCH yesterday, we can't win by sparing someone today.

Since we can't win by sparing someone today.
We should use the lynch or spare as an investigation.

Sparing a third town gives us three conftown.
If I am not spared, I know all three of them, plus myself, to be town.
But if *I* am the one spared, then there's only two conftown. Because I already know myself to be town, sparing me would be a waste.

Thus.

The optimal spare is someone who is town, other than myself.

It needs to not be someone who could be scum, too, to help confirm Rakan%s alignment.
If there was one scum spared, well, it wasn't Ginngie and I am confident that it wouldn't be Over soul, so poe would say Rakan.
But if I spared you, and it was revealed that one scum was spared, we'd have a 50/50. I'd lean towards you being the scum over Rakan, but the results would be ambiguous.

Basically, if we spare someone today, it should be someone who we are confident is town, yet who is not me because I already know that I am town.

[mastina]

Mastina I think if there’s scum in the spare chat it is Gingie. His spare happened very inorganically in my opinion. I was townreading Rakan’s aggression against me and my antics which is why I spared him. To Chemist, I like to think I am playing this game almost how I played the last Undertale game. I am less active here but I am also less toxic. I was only less active here because Baton Pass was a game I really wanted to win and it was an absolute slog to deal with past a certain point. That game made me hate mafia and honestly sapped my will to play.

Yes, well. Ginngie is town, so.
No need to worry about her there.

Mind you, if you do think that the sparewagon on her was scumdriven (fully possible, even with Ginngie being town), then you have incentive to townread those who weren't a part of it.
And guess where I wasn't voting to spare on D2.

[mastina]

Mastina I think if there’s scum in the spare chat it is Gingie. His spare happened very inorganically in my opinion. I was townreading Rakan’s aggression against me and my antics which is why I spared him. To Chemist, I like to think I am playing this game almost how I played the last Undertale game. I am less active here but I am also less toxic. I was only less active here because Baton Pass was a game I really wanted to win and it was an absolute slog to deal with past a certain point. That game made me hate mafia and honestly sapped my will to play.

Yes, well. Ginngie is town, so.
No need to worry about her there.

Mind you, if you do think that the sparewagon on her was scumdriven (fully possible, even with Ginngie being town), then you have incentive to townread those who weren't a part of it.
And guess where I wasn't voting to spare on D2.

To explain:
There's two scum in the game.
For the Ginngie wagon to be scumdriven, AT LEAST one of the voters for it must be scum, if not two.

I was not sparing Ginngie on D2.
So either the wagon wasn't scumdriven, or it was but I am therefore town due to it. Either way, you're pretty much guaranteed AT LEAST one town in Ginngie/myself, and we are mutually townreqding each other, so.

[mastina]

I think I am most struggling with Day 2's selection. Day 2 lasted all of 5 days. The last two votes and hammer on Ginngie came within a short period of time and it doesn't help that I have been scumreading one of the people who facilitated the speed of that day (Elements).

I find it especially odd that Elements would do such a thing despite everyone generally poo-poo'ing my speed spare tactic from the last game when I did it to Chennisden. Elements' behavior in context of what we know from last game is why I am having such a hard time believing he is town. I just do not think Elements acts the way he does in this game knowing all the things we know from that game.

However, now that I look back at what happened on Day 3, my stronger town read on Chemist did the same thing by quickhammering Nacho. I find that especially interesting given the fact that Chemist is now scumreading me for quicksparing Rakan when he quicklynched Nacho. I will maintain that quick sparing is not as detrimental as quicklynching by the simple reason we get to technically keep spares alive. I'm not sure if this hypocrisy is scum motivated. I don't know if Chemist is the type of scum player to try and keep his actions in a specific line/trajectory, or if he is a more play it by ear person. Honestly Day 2 and Day 3 happened so fast while I was wasting all of my time with Baton Pass is why I have literally no understanding or basis in this game. I basically wasn't even here for either of those day phases because they lasted less than a week, collectively.

I am beginning to wonder if that is designed to try and hold my activity against me since that is my main scumtell... Something that Chemist openly acknowledged earlier in the game. It is interesting that he is now scumreading me.

Mastina is a hard one... like Mastina and Nacho have intimate knowledge of me. They have played with me my entire career on this site. I am pretty sure both of them were in my first ever game on this site. But my general knowledge base of how Mastina behaved with me is that she almost always scumread me... and I almost always scumread her out of paranoia. She is a good scumplayer and I never wanted her to have upperhand on me. It helped that we could lock into an eagle death spiral of mutual scum reads on one another. The fact that she is so quick to townread me despite my activity being closer to my scum game. If there is one tell that I have it is that my activity is highly alignment indicative. I'm not sure how much Nacho influenced her to read me, but this is giving me pause on mastina given our extensive history together.

Then there is Xayah... who has in my mind done nothing except for quickhammer Nacho. Mariar has been commonly heralded as a good scumplayer by people on this site, but whenever I have played with scum mariar (in the Hidden Happiness hydra) she has just lurked her way through games. While I don't generally see the lurkiness here, mainly because it seems like everyone has been lurking, and I also have not been here, I am having a hard time seeing the townie motivated actions... I think Maria is a good enough player to realize that quickhammering Nacho is generally a bad idea. Then again, she wasn't the one who actually quick hammered from the looks of it, but like Elements, she did make it happen.

It is funny because this game seems like the antithesis to Baton Pass. I genuinely scumread everyone who is still alive. This is why I don't want to spare anyone else other than myself. Likewise, I don't want to lynch another player because if we are wrong on the lynch and there is a scum already in the spare room, that lynch is LyLo. I am thinking if there is a scum in the spare it is Ginngie. If it is Rakan, I trust that Maria can read whoever she thought she was close enough with to make the Lover Pair alt account.

At any rate, I do not want this day phase to be as fast as the others. We actually need content to parse before we make any decision even if it seems like the majority believes in what I want to happen.

So first things first, Chemist why did you quick hammer Nacho? Why are you scumreading me for something similar to what you did?

Mastina, what is your read on Rakan and Ginngie? What do you think of Chemist/Elements?

Xayah, why are you now comfortable townreading me when you were not before? If I'm not mistaken, wasn't I a stronger scumread for you?

Elements, why are you now comfortable sparing me instead of Mastina?

My read on you is a bit sheeping, yes.
I already was willing to entertain the idea that you're town just on the merit of my own analysis. When others who I trust to be both town and competent, e.g. Nacho, townread you and put in the effort of writing a case for it because of this strong belief, I am going to trust that read.

My read on Rakan is thus: factoring in nka, he'd logically be town, because I feel like my logic for the night kills holds, as evidence that scum were afraid of us achieving a pacifist victory.

(This, mind you, is also why the hammer on lynching Nacho was so scumdriven IMO, but more on that below.)

Ignoring nka, Rakan would still be a scumread.

This would be the main reason why I want to spare you; it'd also tell me if my nka was right or wrong. No scum spared, my nka theory was right; scum feared us achieving the pacifist victory, and the hammer/wagon on Nacho was blatantly scumdriven.

One scum spared, and it's not you and it's not Ginngie, so by poe, it'd be Rakan, and by extent, my nka was wrong.

As for Elements/Chemist: they're my current best guess for the scumteam. I think that one of them is almost certainly scum with a high probability that both are. There's a small chance of Xayah being scum, and there's a small chance of Rakan being scum, and yes, even the chance those two are the scumteam. But far more likely is that one of Chemist/Elements is definitely scum and the other is probably their partner.

[mastina]

Okay, so.
Xayah is confscum. We know this due to the fact that scum got a doublekill last night and the scum decided to kill both the other people spared (not to mention the fact that scum chose to spare Xayah in the first place).

I investigated Chemist last night and got an innocent result.

Which means that the scumteam is either Xayah/Elements or Xayah/Oversoul.

It should be pretty obvious which one I believe is the case.
HURT: Xayah

Kinda flabbergasted the scum didn't choose to force-lynch me and didn't nightkill me tho because frankly I thought everyone figured out I was the cop?

[mastina]

Okay, so.
Xayah is confscum. We know this due to the fact that scum got a doublekill last night and the scum decided to kill both the other people spared (not to mention the fact that scum chose to spare Xayah in the first place).

I investigated Chemist last night and got an innocent result.

Which means that the scumteam is either Xayah/Elements or Xayah/Oversoul.

It should be pretty obvious which one I believe is the case.
HURT: Xayah

Kinda flabbergasted the scum didn't choose to force-lynch me and didn't nightkill me tho because frankly I thought everyone figured out I was the cop?

^Pagetopping this.

[mastina]

(For the record my plan was to spare Oversoul and use that as one investigation, then cop Xayah--when Xayah was spared tho, I opted for the coinflip in Chemist/Elements. I was confident Oversoul was town then and while I am obligated to have doubts, I still am fairly confident in it now.)

[mastina]

For the record: we lynch the confscum Xayah today and then I eat the nightkill so it won't be my decision tomorrow between Elements/Oversoul but I have a strong preference for it being Elements as the final scum. Plenty of evidence for that, too. Like this.

Did everyone decide this game had no rvs and not tell me?

why are people still tring this?

If we had to lynch, id go for nacho, xayah, or elements.

(I mean we know Wisdom was 1-1 here, the question is whether he was 2-1 or 1-2, and I favor him being 2-1 due to trusting in his competency.)

Lets not spare Elements or Wisdom.

I don't like Elements anymore.

These kills all seem to have something in common......

[mastina]

For the record, in Xayah's iso, her interactions between Oversoul and Elements are, unfortunately, fairly similar, but of the two, her interactions with Elements look far more buddy-buddy than her interactions with Oversoul.

[mastina]

Actually reading Elements's iso:
1: It is godawful. Go read it yourself, it's utterly devoid of anything.
2: This looks like the same scum Elements I saw from Make Me Regret This UPick in how devoid it is of sustenance.
3: Elements's read trajectory on Xayah screams scumbuddy in that he barely interacted with her, his interactions were fairly fake, he distanced but avoided bussing, and then conveniently forgot altogether he even HAD a Xayah scumread where she disappeared from his suspect list for no discernible reason.

Pretty much all the cards are there.

[mastina]

Also, while Oversoul's iso is, sadly, mostly devoid of Xayah content and nothing he's posted strongly screams "not her scumbuddy", overall when isoing him his content/contributions throughout the whole game just look a lot more town.

[mastina]

Spare Votecount 3.3>

Oversoul ------

(3)

Oversoul, Nachomamma8, mastina

Wisdom --------

(1)

Xayah

Not sparing:

- (3) Elements, Wisdom, Chemist1422

Fight Votecount 3.3>

Nachomamma8 -

(4)

Wisdom, Elements, Xayah, Chemist1422

Not Fighting:

- (3) mastina, Nachomamma8, Wisdom

Oversoul was also the one not on the godawful Nacho lynch wagon.

Ginngie -------

(5)

Wisdom, Xayah, Nymph, Elements, Ginngie

Not sparing:

- (3) Nachomamma8, mastina, Chemist1422[/area]

Fight Votecount 2.<3

mastina -

(2)

Nymph, Nachomamma8

Not Fighting:

- (7) mastina, Ginngie, Xayah, Oversoul, Wisdom, Chemist1422, Elements

Notably, Elements has voted with Xayah twice; Oversoul has been not voting with Xayah twice.

So then the question you'd have to ask would be; would the scum avoid voting together to try and not attract suspicion, or would the scum try to make sure that the wagons THEY want to go through, go through, in a game where scum desperately need every edge that they can get? I lean towards the latter.

[mastina]

Also, since I don't trust y'all to understand WHY Xayah is confscum,

Neutral Route:

If at least one player was Spared and at least one player was Fought, the game enters the Neutral Ending. All Spared players rejoin the game, and the number of Spared mafia members (but not their identities) is revealed.

The mafia get one kill on Night 4,

plus one more if a mafia member was Spared

.

Last night, if the spare PT had no scum in it, then the mafia would have only gotten one kill.

For the mafia to get two kills, they needed to have had a mafiate spared.

Xayah has been

spared.

Xayah was spared.

It is now Night 4, night actions are due in 48 hours

(mafia don't get additional time for the additional kill):

(expired on 2019-11-05 20:06:42) [/color]

The mod announced that scum got a doublekill here--by announcing scum got a doublekill here, the mod was announcing that one scum was spared.

Rakan and Ginngie have been nightkilled. They were vanilla town.

A fact confirmed by the deaths of both Rakan and Ginngie.

Rakan and Ginngie were the other two members of the spare PT.
There was guaranteed to be one scum in the three spared, due to the double kill.
Xayah was spared.

So between these facts.
I hope it is clear to you that Xayah is literally modconfirmed scum and I don't need to pull out hairs trying to convince you of this.

Today, we are NOT going to try and find the final scum. We are going to lynch the confirmed scum.

While I BELIEVE that Elements is the final scum--there's a shitload of evidence supporting this and very little suggesting it's Oversoul--we lynch the confscum, Xayah, today, and then tomorrow Oversoul and Elements present their cases to whoever the scum in them left alive.

[mastina]

wisdom focus on Elements

I cite everything regarding elements, latest post about mastina is what I believe

I want elements to explain his transitions of his reads and citing evidence

Spoiler:

yeah lets spare rakan

spare rakan cmon. Just 3 days left.

Otherwise ill switch to chennis.

Pushing for the Rakan spare with three days to go and acting like there's no time.

Constantly saying he doesn't want to be spared. The first time, fine you want to contribute, the next however many times combined with "i want pacifist" trying hard to be townread and become the de facto 5th spare to win scum the game.

Spoiler: Elements heals Rakan literally the next post after Wisdom says to heal Rakan

spare rakan cmon. Just 3 days left.

Otherwise ill switch to chennis.

Wisdom don't want to be slung into the spared PT
HEAL: rakan

Spoiler: Then later advocates for the Rakan heal, and has Wisdom as his top townread

also rakan heal yourself

Town

Wisdom

He actively sheeps his top town read and then goes on to declare his top townread is his scum read for the plan he fucking sheeped.

DONT FORGET that this occurs because he tried to scum read me for having TMI in a post, everyone said no and he backed off immediately.

The slot, and deepest apologizes to chenn, is not fucking town.

lynch Elements tomorrow
There's just no way

These are also relevant to why I lean Elements as being the final scum over Oversoul.

[mastina]

HURT: xayah
Mastina, before xayah was spared who did you think was scum?

Before Xayah was spared, I thought it was you + Chemist.
To answer your question of, "if only one of me/Chemist were scum who would be more likely scum between Xayah/Rakan?", my answer was going to be Xayah, because I believed in the NKA for why Rakan was town.

As scum if we were just gonna spare scum and then kill the spare room, then I would have made sure it was me in that situation. Especially if my partner is maria who is much better at scum

While I believe you are town, Oversoul, to play devil's advocate, I should mention that regardless of who is scum in you/Elements, sparing Xayah was a mistake.

Xayah was more likely to endgame than you, but she was also more likely to endgame than Elements, too. Making her be confscum was just a misplay regardless of who was scum--so was deciding to spare a scum in the first place rather than just mislynching someone and going for a single kill to be honest. (Mislynching someone + a single nightkill = still two scum-controlled deaths, except town isn't given a confscum from it. Whereas sparing scum into a doublekill = two scum-controlled deaths, at the expense of outing the spared scum as being scum.)

Optimal scum play would've been forcing a mislynch then using a nightkill.
The second-most optimal scumplay would've been sparing the non-Xayah scum who was unlikely to endgame and relying on Xayah's strength as a scum player to see her through. (Not that that'd have worked since I'd have investigated her if given the chance and made her be confscum from it, but IN THEORY this was the smarter play than what they went with.)

So regardless of who is scum in you/Elements, the scumteam made a massive misplay in making the least-optimal choice in their actions.

That having been said: given your experience as a player versus Elements's experience as a player, I find it MORE LIKELY that Elements would make this sort of misplay than you would, so while this isn't evidence for you being town in the way you

think

it is, I STILL think that it IS evidence for you being town, just...for different reasons.

[mastina]

Intent to hammer

Why chemist why!

Maybe because the self-vote was basically a scumclaim?

Unless mastina has any more thoughts she wants to get out

I've said everything that I can, save one thing:

[mastina]

I’m not going to be available until Friday. I would rather we did not hammer Xayah yet.

Just make extra sure that you actually hammer BEFORE deadline this time.

[mastina]

Actually, I lied. I do have more to say. Two things, in fact.
First, another point in favor of Oversoul being town:
The scumteam had every opportunity to spare Over soul. I don't mean via the missed deadline mechanic, though that remains true as well.

I mean prior to that.
I was voting to spare Oversoul. Elements was voting to spare Oversoul. Xayah, our confscum, had every opportunity to spare Oversoul and yet chose not to; Oversoul had every opportunity to spare himself but while he did at the very end try to, his vote was too late; he had every chance to spare himself before then though.

So the question becomes, if Oversoul is scum, why didn't the scum, during the DAY, hammer him as the spare? It can't be because, "scum were afraid of him becoming confscum". Why can't it be that? Because nobody would've treated him as the scum in Oversoul/Ginngie/Rakan. I would've considered the scum being Rakan. Others who aren't me would've considered the scum to be Ginngie. Scum would still get their doublekill, too, and could remove whoever they wanted to with impunity, knowing that their spared member wasn't confscum, and could set up a favorable lylo.

So I can't think of any reason why scum wouldn't just spare Oversoul during the day. The closest I can come up with as a reason is a combination of negligence and incompetence, where they just legitimately overlooked the favorable spare until it was too late.

In contrast, if Oversoul is town, there's an obvious explanation for why Xayah didn't hammer his spare: it'd give the town three cinftown, with scum only able to remove one of them.

[mastina]

The second point is Re:Element's case on Over soul. The narrative looks fine at a glance, but there's a critical flaw in the narrative:

It relies on the scumteam planning on a Xayah spare qr something which could only happen if we missed the deadline.

While we did inevitably do precisely that, miss the deadline, the scumteam would have had no way of KNOWING that we'd miss the deadline.

Element's narrative is basically, "Xayah and Oveesoul did distancing, planning on sparing Xayah to help clear Oversoul", but the scumteam when doing that alleged distancing had no way of knowing that the town would fail to deadline lynch, and thus, had no way of, when making those interactions, knowing that Xayah would be spared. If anything, they'd be under the impression that she wouldn't be spared.

[mastina]

I guess I can summarize it as so:
There are reasons why Oversoul COULD be scum…
…But they are, explicitly, paranoia. They rely on violations of Occam's razor, and paint the picture of a scumteam who, at every single step of the way, made the worst possible actions, including a massive misplay putting them in a near-autoloss situation.

Killing people suspicious of Elements, killing people who were townreading Oversoul, not taking optimal actions time after time, and also, not helping the town make misplay after misplay. It requires that the scumteam basically took the most protown possible actions throughout the whole game, furthering the town wincon by letting the town hone in on them.

This is not impossible, a narrative of utter incompetence.
It is incredibly improbable, because the scum team's actions make a whole lot of sense with Elements as scum.

While some of the points for the scumteam being incompetent apply regardless of who the final scum is, as we have demonstrable evidence that they did in fact make misplays regardless of which is the final scum, the question is in the order of magnitude.

With Oversoul as scum, two veteran, experienced players made the worst possible decisions for literally the whole game. This is, while fully possible, a hard pill to swallow.

With Elements as scum, the scumteam, made up of MariaR and a newbie, played most situations well, but not perfectly. They made noticeable errors, but not everything they did was one; their decisions have some semblance of being smart in some areas.

While I would feel incredibly stupid for handing a scumteam who made the worst possible choices the whole game the victory off of "too scummy to be scum" logic, I would feel even MORE stupid for handing the scum who I have nailed, the victory due to caving in to paranoia.

And, logically, Oversoul has no reason to be scum, whereas Elements has every reason to be scum. Which is why I favor Elements as the last scum.

But yeah, don't think that I have anything else to say.

[mastina]

Um ok. Have to use the hurt tags, but

Well.
There goes my plan.
I am fully expecting to be the nightkill.
But if I wasn't the nightkill, tomorrow I was PLANNING to reaction test by casting a vote using the vote tag rather than the hurt tag to see if I could bait the final scum into outing themselves.

Alas.

That plan is out the window now because between the both of you I know you're aware that a vote with the vote tag wouldn't count so the reaction test wouldn't work.

(Mind you, I placed it at an only 20% at best chance of working ANYWAY, but would've been worth a try. Would've. OH WELL.)

[mastina]

Yo Oversoul you kinda gamethrew by killing me, because, uhh yeah…was never going to vote anyone other than Elements here.
Also kinda gamethrew by killing the people who scumread Elements the whole game, e.g. Nymph.

[mastina]

Honestly I wouldn't call it a game throw

Literally everyone except for Chemist had the wool pulled over their eyes

Yeah, everyone except for Chemist had the wool pulled over their eyes; that's precisely why it was a gamethrow.
Everyone else was townreading Over soul, yet instead of bringing literally any of them to lylo and instead of night killing the only player with the correct read, they took the player with the correct read to lylo.

They could've, TWICE, spared Oversoul. Xayah could've hammered that spare on either D3 or D4, but did so neither day.

They could've not confscummed Xayah, and used the doublekill to kill me and one of the two townies from the spare PT. Yes, that'd leave whichever of Ginngie/Rakan alive and conftown that they didn't kill, but it'd leave both Chemist/Elements as not conftown, and leave both Xayah and Oversoul's alignments unknown.

Plus the night kill on what was a free mislynch, and all the night kills on all the people who had the worst reads.

Scum doing literally any other actions than what they did, would've won this game, but they basically did the gamethrowing move at every opportunity, including the night before lylo.

I think that in terms of day play, scum should've won due to both being so widely townread, but by making bad calls on where to vote/spare/kill, they handed the town the only condition where town could've won.