Newbie 1965 | River | Over

[Map Wolf]

It's not defensive, it's me replying to your rubbish. To be lurking would mean I would have to have been hanging around before your comment.

Blatant scum, neither

To be honest, you do seem unnecessarily defensive. The game is not entirely decided by day one.

VOTE: Gjt

[Map Wolf]

Which is awesome, because there are only 2 players who can do reading here

Not sure what you mean by this.

[Map Wolf]

Or you could just be scum and know whos who and use that in your reads

Being "right" in your reads is actually not all that good as scum. You'd usually play better if you just didn't know your alignment at all as you played as you then give basically no info away.

[Map Wolf]

hello i have arrived
gjt sus af

That's a rather fast conclusion to be honest. Not that it makes you scum, since that would perhaps be a bit aggressive.

[Map Wolf]

Since people aren't that active, I think I might as well do a read list:

Faustiv,

neutral for now. Is kind of aggressive, but I don't think that's all that alignment indicative at least so far.

Gjr,

neutral leaning somewhat scum. Seems defensive in tone, but this could also be town too afraid of being lynched. (Which you shouldn't be all that much, since being lynched early doesn't lose the game)

Blatant,

neutral. Some stuff posted doesn't make sense to me like 24. Hasn't actually tried to read anyone. Yet.

Titus,

V/LA for now.

TGS,

Neutral.

GBJ,

Town-leaning. Seems a bit aggressive for scum.

Rise,

not posted so far.

GuiltyLion

hasn't posted either.

[Map Wolf]

Blatant, neutral. Some stuff posted doesn't make sense to me like 24. Hasn't actually tried to read anyone.

And it won't happen.

So no reeds this game? Is there some specific reason behind that?

[Map Wolf]

VOTE: Map Wolf

page 2 reads list looks fake

I'll admit it's very arbitrary as it's mostly just me guessing off of few posts.
But could you elaborate on why you find it fake?

[Map Wolf]

VOTE: Map Wolf

page 2 reads list looks fake

I'll admit it's very arbitrary as it's mostly just me guessing off of few posts.
But could you elaborate on why you find it fake?

Because I've played a ton of mafia and I've learned to be able to discern awkward "trying too hard" qualities that are generally more likely to come from scum

First, you felt compelled to explain

why

you were posting a readslist in the first place, "since people aren't that active". Theres nothing wrong with posting a readslist, but introducing it like that it's as if you're defending yourself already against an imaginary question of why you were posting it.

Second you take very tentative and weak stances on basically everyone. "Neutral" is not an alignment and not a read. Everyone is either town or scum and if you can't tell me how you feel about them yet then you're not really giving reads at all. Even your scumread is very hedgey, "leaning somewhat scum" reads like you're afraid to make real waves by calling somebody out.

Third, why even comment on players who haven't posted yet? Everybody knows we hadn't posted. Again it's just awkward - sometimes that comes from townies who don't really know what they're doing yet but in my experience it's decent odds of scum.

Finally it's odd that your strongest townread is GBJ, who I actually also find scummy. What makes you think scum couldn't be aggressive? For someone who seems generally hesitant to call everybody town or scum it's weird that you feel most comfortable about that slot in particular.

So I am not trying to justify the very fact that I post a reads list. I am just posting it because there's nothing else to really comment on. Might as well throw something in there to discuss.

Now I'll admit putting everyone neutral by default is pretty stupid as I realise there's 3/4 chance they are town. I don't make conclusions because I don't have any knowledge that would make me sure on alignments.

The reason I put players not posting on the list is so that it's complete and I can quickly copy it as a template later. It's not because I have any views on them.

As for my read on GBJ, that's obviously a big guess at the time. I don't like what they've posted since then though. (Will elaborate)

[Map Wolf]

Since people aren't that active, I think I might as well do a read list:

Faustiv,

neutral for now. Is kind of aggressive, but I don't think that's all that alignment indicative at least so far.

Gjr,

neutral leaning somewhat scum. Seems defensive in tone, but this could also be town too afraid of being lynched. (Which you shouldn't be all that much, since being lynched early doesn't lose the game)

Blatant,

neutral. Some stuff posted doesn't make sense to me like 24. Hasn't actually tried to read anyone. Yet.

Titus,

V/LA for now.

TGS,

Neutral.

GBJ,

Town-leaning. Seems a bit aggressive for scum.

Rise,

not posted so far.

GuiltyLion

hasn't posted either.

Do you think GBJ has been ‘direct’ or ‘disfriendly’?

He made two posts prior to my 42. That's one post calling gjt "sus af" and another saying "ok maybe gjt isn't as sus as i say". So yes pretty direct, maybe not disfriendly.

gaybaby is town

If you're going to conclude that (and another conclusion in 95) then it's hard to really take it for much without some elaboration.

[Map Wolf]

What do you think of Map Wolf’s 38

didn't like it. Commenting on GBJ the sake of commenting but not drawing any conclusions about alignment. I was kinda wondering if it was a scum-scum coaching interaction like "hey buddy don't come in so hot" or whether it's s-t like "I want to comment on your post but don't worry I'm not scumreading you", but either way it looks disingenuous from Map Wolf. And it's also not really congruent with the mindset that Map Wolf is scumreading and voting Gjt

just for the record I didn't like 27 either

Regarding 27, that was a genuine thought that I posted without even reading 26 beforehand.

As for 38, I can see why you'd have those views of it. I don't think I'm disingenuous though. I don't think I needed to post that it alone didn't make him scum, and I do agree that it is a bit of a simplistic assumption to say that aggression --> not scum.

[Map Wolf]

I don't like GBJ's 120. I think BS's posts have been werid, but it feels like GBJ is needlessly trying to push a lynch on him.

[Map Wolf]

That vote count is wrong; I appear twice.

Fixed, thank you --P

[Map Wolf]

The problem is if you "don't make conclusions" then it's:

a) hard to see your genuine thought process
and
b) super convenient for you to change the way you vote/read things later in the game without having to explain what changed, when, and why.

And that also ties into the larger point of like - if you weren't making conclusions then what were you hoping to gain from posting them?

further I would also kinda reframe it as I'm not asking for

"conclusions"

(implying some kind of final and definitive read) more than just like

"judgments"

. Saying somebody "could be town or scum" doesn't give any actual insight into what you are thinking. Saying "I think [x] is town for [y] reason" is far more useful to players trying to sort you, even if you then decide you were wrong later. It's also makes it a lot harder for scum to fake convincingly

+

@Map Wolf

- I would like your thoughts on Rise, now that she has posted and come to your defense.

Noted.

[Map Wolf]

Ok

I asked that question because in Newbie 1757 you had a slight scumread on a player because he was ‘direct’ and ‘disfriendly’ and you were town in that game. It just pinged me as odd that you TR a player in this game for similar reasons.

eager to see your case on GBJ now.

also I’ll elaborate on that read when I get back at a computer.

That game (I assume you mean 1737 as I didn't participate in 1737) was three years ago. I think I use more reverse psychology thinking right now.

[Map Wolf]

Also, Map Wolf: Do you like where your vote (on Gjt) is at the moment? If so, why?

I have considered moving it. I don't really have a strong case on them atm.

[Map Wolf]

Ok

I asked that question because in Newbie 1757 you had a slight scumread on a player because he was ‘direct’ and ‘disfriendly’ and you were town in that game. It just pinged me as odd that you TR a player in this game for similar reasons.

eager to see your case on GBJ now.

also I’ll elaborate on that read when I get back at a computer.

That game (I assume you mean 1737 as I didn't participate in 1737) was three years ago. I think I use more reverse psychology thinking right now.

yeah my bad ,that game.

do you have any more recent games?

I have no games after 2017 onwards.

[Map Wolf]

To be honest, I still don't like GBJ pushing Blatant. It feels a bit fake or convenient. Still, if Blatant is town, then their behavior is really not useful at all. I will VOTE: Blatant Scum as I don't like their posts myself tbh:

65 is a pretty stupid post. Their entire posting history consists of short comments with little substance.

To be clear, what I don't like is GBJ seemingly pushing him quite hard.

[Map Wolf]

To be honest, I still don't like GBJ pushing Blatant. It feels a bit fake or convenient. Still, if Blatant is town, then their behavior is really not useful at all. I will VOTE: Blatant Scum as I don't like their posts myself tbh:

65 is a pretty stupid post. Their entire posting history consists of short comments with little substance.

To be clear, what I don't like is GBJ seemingly pushing him quite hard.

This has already been spoken about. As I, and Guilty Lion have said, it seems too obvious. Why in the world would mafia attempt to stand out? Unless they're trolling. If they're trolling, then maybe looking into a policy vote. I'm pretty sure a slot can't just refuse to contribute to the game, regardless of alignment.

Is it just me or does Map Wolf's sudden vote on Blatant seem a little contrived? He provides no backing other than things that have been mentioned over and over and I feel like it's in an attempt to move the heat off of him back onto Blatant.

I'm not trying to push towards a lynch. I'm trying to have Blatant participate more.

[Map Wolf]

Rise defending me in 127 feels a bit convenient. Like "Look, I was right about his alignment!" in the case that I'm lynched and flipped as town. I do agree on their criticism of Blatant in 131.

Also I liked Map Wolf's #126. It answered a lot of my questions for his earlier list so I'm not gonna question further.

Don't like this post. There's nothing wrong with questioning me. There are people that should perhaps be questioned more, but questioning me is never going to hurt town as it forces the actual scum to give away information.

So I don't really like the whole defending me thing. If they are town, then there's nothing wrong with questioning me and no need to defend me hard. If they are scum, then trying to appear on my side is pretty convenient.

[Map Wolf]

Right now, I see a divide in the town centered on Map Wolf and BS. BS is definitely anti-town but Map Wolf's vote is opportunistic (town or scum opportunism though). I think right now the best thing to do is to tie up the wagons and see what responses occur.

I'm not trying to push for a lynch on BS. I want to put some pressure on them because if he is town, then he's not contributing enough.

[Map Wolf]

I could def see myself voting TGS as well, 171 was a bad post especially since TGS herself isn't voting Map Wolf

key to this game is gonna be finding the townie in Map Wolf/Rise/TGS

Do you think two or one of these are mafia?

[Map Wolf]

201 kind of comes off as trying hard to justify themself.

[Map Wolf]

201 kind of comes off as trying hard to justify themself.

201 reads super paranoid town to me. I don’t think that’s contrived.

I considered saying that it comes off as scum trying hard, but I do agree it is possible for that behavior to be a thing if you are too afraid of being lynched as town.

[Map Wolf]

I could def see myself voting TGS as well, 171 was a bad post especially since TGS herself isn't voting Map Wolf

key to this game is gonna be finding the townie in Map Wolf/Rise/TGS

Do you think two or one of these are mafia?

good question

definitely at least one IMO but probably not two at this point. at the time I was being kinda lazy and PoE-ing a little aggressively (of the 5 players outside these three, I have two as solid townreads, two as less-solid-but-still-don't-wanna-lynch-today townreads, then Titus), but I do think if I can firm up at least one good townread in that group of three it'll be really helpful. If just one mafia in that group then the other is probably gonna be in Titus or one of my softer townreads.
choo chooo

Sure. I'll need to read the ISO of TGS later, but they don't really com off as hard scum. Honestly don't know though. If I was him and was scum, then I probably would've voted myself unless I was afraid of being scumread.

[Map Wolf]

Townreads in no particular order:

Gjt
Faustiv
GuiltyLion

[Map Wolf]

If BS is scum then good.
If BS is town, then we lynch the most scum-like town player.

[Map Wolf]

top 3 trs

1: gjt
2:

map wolf

3: tgs

Kind of interested about what made map wolf go from one of your scum reads earlier, become null and now your second strongest town read? What about their recent posts changed your mind?

This post makes a lot of sense if he is scum. If town, then this observation might not be as obvious since you don't know alignments.

[Map Wolf]

Kind of off topic, but just had a dream where I was lynched while I was away.

[Map Wolf]

The hammer was really stupid if town and really scummy regardless of alignment.

It's like a 50/50 that it's a genuine doctor... not worth the risk.

[Map Wolf]

The hammer was really stupid if town and really scummy regardless of alignment.

It's like a 50/50 that it's a genuine doctor... not worth the risk.

It was not a 50/50 risk. Town players don't soft claim. Period. I thought I was protecting the real doctor or preventing scum from coasting on a fake claim

If that was true, then scum wouldn't soft claim either... And yet here we are.

[Map Wolf]

hot takes time:
-this game needs more Map Wolf

Yes. I definitely need to put more into this.

[Map Wolf]

What I think you should've done was that you should've asked them to clarify if they for real were doctor. That'd force them to commit to a claim... Also it would've made no sense to fake-claim doctor while you're getting lynched if you were town.

[Map Wolf]

Pondering about this game (I will need to read through ISOs), I kind of have a gut feeling that the scum players would want to court me on their side by townreading me.
I really still think Titus hammering BS was the wrong thing. There are two options: Town misplaying is possible, but would suck. The other option is that she is scum intentionally hammering what is likely a doctor, and then trying hard to justify the action as rational play.
Like if you were scum and she was town, you'd want to push her.

[Map Wolf]

I agree with the logic of GL in 370. That said, citing the mod is not really the way to go. Think of it like a guideline for new players, not some absolute rule.

[Map Wolf]

It's about 50/50 whether it's T/T for me (Between GL and Titus). Still, Titus comes off as defensive. You'd be better off admitting that you made a genuine mistake (as this was) as town. GL could be scum, but if you were scum, you wouldn't really need to push Titus in this scenario. I'd to ready to criticize her more if GL didn't do it.

On another note, the second town PR is Tracker/Cop. I can only assume that that player didn't find anything that would be useful for us.

[Map Wolf]

Also, it does kind of concern me that GBJ didn't reply to the vote on them.

[Map Wolf]

From the perspective of a town player, the chances of this being TvT is 44% mathematically. In regards to what Rise writes, I think GL is right about the lynch being wrong, even if he is scum. I think if Titus is scum, then it'd make sense to not apologize, in order to make us think that she wasn't scum.

I will VOTE: Titus as I think she is more likely to be scum, and because I want to see some progress (this does not mean quick lynch!).

Don't you dare hammering within the next 24 hours;

we have plenty of time to discuss stuff.

[Map Wolf]

I'm still leaning towards GBJ as bigger scum read currently. Least we finally getting some action going on here. We'll certainly get some better info

Anyone else down with Gaybabyjailor being Scum, I feel a more uneasy with Map Wolfs read lost each time I re read it and kinda agree with GuiltyLion, but not convinced either way yet

This is what Gjt thought about GBJ. Perhaps scum killed him because of his read on GBJ?
I am almost tempted to think that is a the case. Now, you could argue that they might've killed him,

so that I have this exact line of reasoning.

However, I don't think his scumread was really discussed all that much, and the chances that someone would mention it might appear really low. On the other hand, killing someone townreading you like that could be useful, because you view them as a good player due to getting that read kind of right.
Another option is that scum either 1. Killed randomly or 2. Just thought that he was the most town-read player who isn't scum.
To be honest, I think (2) is more likely the case.

[Map Wolf]

^^ Absolutely yes to no quicklynching today. Please. Also where did 44% come from?

(4/6)^2 = 44%. In hindsight, it should actually be (4/6)*(3/5) = 40%

[Map Wolf]

wait it's at L-1?

UNVOTE:

we need more time

+

[Map Wolf]

So I want to go over the votes from yesterday and try to analyse it a bit.

Blatant Scum (5): GayBabyJailor, Map Wolf, faüstiv, Gjt, Titus
TheGildedSun (2): Blatant Scum, GuiltyLion
Guilty Lion (1): Rise
Not Voting (1): TheGildedSun

I feel like BS was a really obvious vote for most of yesterday. I feel like there almost certainly is at least one scum among the people not voting BS, due to WIFOM. TGS is a good candidate to be honest...

I think if Titus is town,

then there is a good chance that

the scum pairing might be GL and Rise/TGS.

This does kind of make it less likely that Faustiv (and from your perspective I) would be scum, since you would want to be more hesitant to have your vote on the lynched person. This doesn't of course vindicate Titus, since that hammer kind of came out of the blue as far as I am concerned.

I want to also think about GL. What if he was scum? What would the state of the game then be? I can see it being possible that his way of trying to townread players is a way for us to do that in return. Feels like he assumes the best in everyone, except Titus (although I don't blame him too hard for that).

I am kind of tempting to join the wagon on TGS, but there is kind of an issue with that in theory. If we assume one of GL/Titus is scum, then a mislynch today could essentially force us to choose between one of them tomorrow. That would not be that great of a prospect for us, so if TGS was town, then she'd be the perfect push for today.

[Map Wolf]

So you're suggesting TvT is more likely?
What I then find interesting is that GL is assuming this is TvS. Why? From his perspective (assuming he is town), the chances would only be 33%. Possible, but not certain.

[Map Wolf]

map wolf is eh... unsure. on one hand he's made a lot of posts which seem like genuine gamesolve posts but that vote putting Titus to L1 when he was so publically on the fence was bad.

the L1 vote from Map and then the unvote soon after from GBJ makes me think they're not paired up so I'm inclined to believe that that leaves TGS who, admittedly hasn't done anything today (most probably through no fault of her own, might just be busy with IRL stuff) but her d1 was bad.
i think if we lynch TGS/GBJ/map wolf in any order we win the game.

Can you elaborate on why the L-1 vote was bad? I specfically stated that I didn't want a lynch in the post itself. In hindsight, I do get that putting Titus L-1 is super risky if someone accidentally votes her, but I don't really see the vote hurting town.
I agree that Titus/GL being TvT is possible, but I am certainly not convinced of it. Still, I agree that one of TGS/GBJ likely is scum.

[Map Wolf]

the vote was bad because you fencesat on the two throughout the day and threw the vote on when the Titus wagon was gaining momentum. sure you scumread titus more than GL but you still didn't place a vote, so to me that's a fencesit when you're explicitly stating that you believe that at least one is mafia.

then 393 you vote Titus. You state that you believe TGS could be scum but TGS wasn't voting at that stage. What if TGS hammered Titus and Titus flipped town?

I didn't like the vote or the timing of the vote for that reason.

Well if someone hammered Titus, then they'd get policy lynched next day. That's why I didn't fear a hammer. As for the fencesitting, you're right on it. I didn't feel like committing to a vote before that point.

[Map Wolf]

Readlist;
{GL, MW} scumpair

Can you explain why that's your view? If we were both scum (which I am not), wouldn't it make more sense for us to disagree more? The only problem I'd have with a lynch of GL is that there's a chance that he is town. Perhaps a better chance than you being town for all I know.

[Map Wolf]

I think if Titus is town,

then there is a good chance that

the scum pairing might be GL and Rise/TGS.

I want to also think about GL. What if he was scum? What would the state of the game then be? I can see it being possible that his way of trying to townread players is a way for us to do that in return. Feels like he assumes the best in everyone, except Titus (although I don't blame him too hard for that).

I am kind of tempting to join the wagon on TGS, but there is kind of an issue with that in theory. If we assume one of GL/Titus is scum, then a mislynch today could essentially force us to choose between one of them tomorrow. That would not be that great of a prospect for us, so if TGS was town, then she'd be the perfect push for today.

I honestly wouldn't mind lynching GL and then potentially Titus tomorrow. That might get us the best chance of winning.
UNVOTE: Titus

[Map Wolf]

Will elaborate on this later (including an entire case on why GL!MW are scum), so feel free to ask me anything before then.

If you think that, then you are wrong.

That said, there's a decent chance GL is scum (read my post above). Still, I have two questions to that:
1. Would you then commit to a lynch of GL?
2. What happens if he is lynched and flips town? Who would you then think is scum?

[Map Wolf]

Also, that makes me think: What if the scumpair is Pvt/GL. What if his goal is to first lynch GL, and then use a scum flip to push for me tomorrow?

[Map Wolf]

Also, that makes me think: What if the scumpair is Pvt/GL. What if his goal is to first lynch GL, and then use a scum flip to push for me tomorrow?

you seem to sr the new guy because they sred you?

That's correct.

[Map Wolf]

I wouldn't say that people scumreading you is sus mapwolf

No it's not, but I suspect that he suggests this pairing in order to distract from himself.

[Map Wolf]

the only reason you would do that is if you thought it was SvS, but you didn't mention that in your post

What I said was that I thought you pushed BS particularly hard. The fact that you pushed BS was not a problem

[Map Wolf]

Honestly tempted to just hammer GL. Only reason I am not yet doing so is because we'd probably insta-lose if I did and he flipped town.

[Map Wolf]

@everyone not voting Guilty, you gotta see that there's too much controversy surrounding that slot. Even if you don't think he's scum, he's gonna give us the most information. So yeah guys, think about pulling the trigger.

Can't exactly vote GL if it would result in a lynch.

[Map Wolf]

o just hammer GL. Only reason I am not yet doing so is because we'd probably insta-lose if I did and he flipped town.

So map announces here that he thinks it’s GL and Rise/TGS

He then has hammer between GL and the TGS slot but refuses to hammer, even though he scunreads both slots. His reason for not hammering screams of self concern for his slot rather than it being detrimental for town. I think Map knows GL flips town if he hammers him.

I think there probably is a scum between GL/TGS, but hammering one of them, and then having them flip town would basically screw us over.

Fixed broken quote tag --P

[Map Wolf]

Messed up the quote in 524. Please give a few more hours before hammering though.

[Map Wolf]

Here's how this is going to go.

Unless Titus or Rise sees the light, you lynch me because Map Wolf is obviously going to vote me to save himself. (I guarantee PvtUrist stays on me here despite claiming to scumread both of us equally)

I flip town and either faustiv or Titus dies depending on the setup.

You lynch Map Wolf in LYLO.

The other of faustiv/Titus dies.

You lynch PvtUrist for the win.

Rise, if you vote GBJ at any point this game I am going to be salty with you postgame. Warning you now

Titus - assuming that I flip town, do you agree to this plan?

This is why I am not comfortable about hammering you. If you flip town we basically lose. Although I suppose if you are town, then chances are that pvt would be scum.

[Map Wolf]

Now this could be WIFOM, but the people voting GL would have every incentive to push for a lynch on me if they were scum; a lynch on me would force a Lylo between GL and Pvt tomorrow. On the other hand, GL flipping town would be bad for pvt, and GL flipping scum would be bad for scum in general.

I honestly feel like our best shot is to gamble GL is scum. Even if that would probably cost us the game if he flips town. Specifically, GL --> Pvt in that order would likely get us the highest chance of lynching scum. On the other hand, lynching me and having me flip town doesn't lead to an obvious D3 lynch. Seriously. If I flipped town, we'd be discussing Pvt v GL again.

[Map Wolf]

Map Wolf what do you actually believe the odds are that I'm scum? You aren't projecting as confident as Rise/PvtUrist, why is that?

If you assume that I'm flipping town (which I am), who do you think is PvtUrist's partner?

bc I guarantee you that if you are somehow town PvtUrist is 100% confirmed scum

Why do you think me flipping town would make Pvt scum?

As for your question, I think the most obvious scumpairing not involving you would be Pvt/Rise as you pointed out in your post prior to this one.

[Map Wolf]

Because Titus and faustiv and GBJ sure aren't scum

Well people have suggested that you and GBJ are scumteam and that is a possibility.

[Map Wolf]

You also didn't answer my question about the actual odds that you think I'm scum. Like in a vacuum what do you think makes me shimmy and then how does that compare to Pvt/TGS

I'm not going to analyse you in a vacuum. That's not how this works.

I think you joining the BS wagon would make sense if you are scum. In addition, you then try to push Titus!Scum the day after, knowing that people are annoyed at the PR lynch. You then kind of stop the push the moment that someone points out who the next nk would be. You then vote me the moment that Faustiv suggests that we lynch me.

529 comes off really wrong tonally to me. "Let's just blame this player for not agreeing with me". 534 is tonally negative to me as well. Also, his interactions will GBJ come off as suspicious.

Also, the suggested lynch onto me is plainly wrong. What information does me flipping town give? Is there then a universally agreed lynch on d3? A lynch we'd agree would be optimal beforehand? I don't think so. GL and Pvt have both suggested that I were the scumpartner of Pvt and GL respectively. On the other hand, GL flpping town would give us information and would make it pretty likely that Pvt is scum.

Honestly, I think GL/GBJ is very possible. The only reason that I am not just hammering is because if GL flipped town, then we'd be screwed.

But honestly, I think it's our best shot at winning.

[Map Wolf]

Intent

[Map Wolf]

Not doing it right now. I want to give people a chance to respond.

[Map Wolf]

alright go ahead and hammer me scums, I feel at peace with this now

sorry I got a little heated this game. it's been a long time since I've felt like I had no real sway in determining lynches or having my voice heard and that was frustrating for me at times, but in the end I don't blame you all, good luck to town. I think Pvt is a sliiiiightly safer Lynch than Map Wolf tomorrow but I won't complain if Map is lynched either

Well if you flip town, then you can bet scum will push for me.

[Map Wolf]

Will hammer in roughly (expired on 2019-11-26 16:30:00)

[Map Wolf]

I'll do it in (expired on 2019-11-26 17:17:00)

[Map Wolf]

VOTE: Guilty Lion

See you in post game.

[Map Wolf]

No I'm not. If I was the cop, I would have claimed with info.

This tells me PvT is probably locktown. I don't see a world where his scumteam doesn't shoot me.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone. I'm thankful for the good times we had.

Or perhaps they didn't kill you either because you are scum or for WIFOM reasons.

[Map Wolf]

Before this day began, I'd say that a Pvt lynch was the best option. I still think it is, although scum!Titus is a lot more possible.

[Map Wolf]

Pvt/Titus and Pvt/GBJ I think are the most plausible scum pairs.

[Map Wolf]

okay my lynch for today is pvt, map wolf, or titus with preference for map wolf

So you wanna lynch anyone but faustiv and you, but ideally me?

[Map Wolf]

I'll wait for faustiv to express his thoughts before I do anything else.

Not expecting town to win this game.

Agree.

Also, this game is truly cursed if we both are town.

[Map Wolf]

Honestly, I think Faustiv/Titus might actually be the scumteam. Think about this. We were split between Titus/GL for a while... And then comes the post from faustiv in 420: Titus is probably PR he suggests. From that point onwards, we all just assume that titus is pr.

We know for sure that the setup is A1: Mafia Roleblocker, Town Cop, Town Doctor. In other words, Mafia can't for sure know who is pr.
Now let's assume Titus is town. Why would scum not kill them? Now sure it could be some hard WIFOM, but that'd carry an insane risk if they were pr as a cop result could be super valuable. Titus being scum is certainly the best explanation for the nightkill. Now why not kill faustiv? Surely he was the most townread player. Again, WIFOM could be used as an argument, but I personally don't believe that faustiv would've been lynched anyway.

On the other hand, if Titus is scum, then you'd want to avoid killing a pr role. Now obviously scum wouldn't want to kill me nor Pvt, so that leaves GBJ, Rise and Faustiv, minus the one of them that could be scum. Surely, if Titus was scum, then mafia would incorrectly have thought that Rise was least likely to be PR.
So I think Titus is almost certainly scum and would probably be the best lynch. Faustiv is not as clear-cut, but it mainly comes down to 420 which to me seems like a gamble attempting to save a scummate. I'll need to read through the Rise ISO though.

For what's it's worth, both faustiv and titus were on the BS lynch, with titus coming with a really bad reasoning still. Titus was on the GL lynch, but Faustiv wasn't.

[Map Wolf]

Glided Sun and BS both have wagons to 3 again.

This suggest Map wolf and GS

Pvt

have the same alignment.

Hmmm. Now I know this is an old read, but if Titus is right here, then that means that me and Pvt are both town...

[Map Wolf]

i'm paranoid that i may have been completely wrong on titus

For what's it's worth, Titus/GBJ could also fit my theory.

[Map Wolf]

Reading the Rise ISO, I think chances are that she invested Pvt for town. Or she was roleblocked, that could've also happened.

[Map Wolf]

Like why else insist on the GL lynch?

[Map Wolf]

I'll leave it for now. Please don't vote yet, but scum is almost certainly Titus/someone else

[Map Wolf]

that may have been an inno soft on Map.

Been thinking more about this. Would scum!Titus

want

to kill PR in this situation? Think about it, if Titus is scum then she’s in a good position to CC here. She only needs one town vote to win. What if Rise wasn’t a PR read at all and was just a ‘lucky’ kill that was originally targeted as a blue kill?

Rise was pretty hesitant to join the Map Wolf BW. Map is lynchbait. If Map is town then scum only need one town vote on him to win. Scum aren’t going to keep someone around who is hesitant to place their vote on a hot lynch.

My thought is that scum did not intend to kill pr.

[Map Wolf]

that may have been an inno soft on Map.

Been thinking more about this. Would scum!Titus

want

to kill PR in this situation? Think about it, if Titus is scum then she’s in a good position to CC here. She only needs one town vote to win. What if Rise wasn’t a PR read at all and was just a ‘lucky’ kill that was originally targeted as a blue kill?

Rise was pretty hesitant to join the Map Wolf BW. Map is lynchbait. If Map is town then scum only need one town vote on him to win. Scum aren’t going to keep someone around who is hesitant to place their vote on a hot lynch.

My thought is that scum did not intend to kill pr.

Possibly. If thats the case then do you think Titus is still scum or was she a roleblock target?

It makes more sense for Titus to be scum. If they thought Titus was PR, then killing her directly makes way more sense, since that way you get rid of a potentially (almost) confirmed town.

[Map Wolf]

Well, there is a third solution.

Scum deduced Rise was the PR and used it to make me look bad. PvT could then change to vote me no problem. He'd set me up in lylo by killing Rise who he blocked all along.

Forgive the ramble, I am slow to awaken this morning.

I don't really see how Rise being PR was obvious. Maybe the aversion towards lynching me indicated that she got me as town? I myself didn't notice that though.

[Map Wolf]

For what it's worth, before this day began, I almost considered just insta-voting Pvt... Honestly, Titus/Pvt also is very plausible considering she wasn't on his wagon.

Still, I think Titus lynch is our best shot at this.

[Map Wolf]

If Titus is town, that leaves:
Pvt/Faustiv, GBJ/Faustiv, Pvt/GBJ. All of these except Pvt/Faustiv make sense. Even so, why not kill Faustiv or Titus? Killing Titus and then pushing me would be a way easier route to victory.

If Faustiv is town, that leaves:
Pvt/Titus, Pvt/GBJ, Titus/GBJ. All of these are in theory possible as far as I see it.

Honestly I think Pvt being town is relatively likely though I'll need to read GL's case on him. Also, it just makes sense for scum to want to push him if he is scum. Him guessing that scumteam is Map Wolf/GL would also be a really bad move as scum, since he would've known that it'd be proven wrong given a lynch happening.

[Map Wolf]

I still think Titus/Faustiv is the most likely scumteam based on 420.

I want GBJ and Pvt's thoughts on this before I cast a vote on Titus.

[Map Wolf]

Let's say mafia roleblocks Titus and then uses their kill some other way. Why not kill Faustiv, the most townread player?

like if I'm scum as well I'd just push for a lynch on you. Titus wants you dead. GBJ wants you dead. They can't both be my partner.

If you were scum, then you pushing for me, right after I've made that post suggesting Titus/Faustiv, would've looked really bad.
Also, I am pretty sure the only ones literally "wanting me dead" are scum, who'd instant-win should I be lynched.

[Map Wolf]

Map Wolf, what are your thoughts on a Faustiv GBJ team?

That's possible, although I think GBJ/Pvt is more likely.

Really, I don't have any for sure town among the 4 other players remaining. Except maybe lean town on Pvt and GBJ.

[Map Wolf]

Let's say mafia roleblocks Titus and then uses their kill some other way. Why not kill Faustiv, the most townread player?

like if I'm scum as well I'd just push for a lynch on you. Titus wants you dead. GBJ wants you dead. They can't both be my partner.

If you were scum, then you pushing for me, right after I've made that post suggesting Titus/Faustiv, would've looked really bad.
Also, I am pretty sure the only ones literally "wanting me dead" are scum, who'd instant-win should I be lynched.

Already answered this.

If I was scum I would have pushed on you way before you made that post. I was pushing for you most of D2.

like there's 0 reason why I would townread you here as scum. I'm narrowing my lynchpool down massively and you're a lynchable player.

You might be right, but surely simply joining a mislynch wagon would be pretty viable as well, if you were scum?
-
By the way, I can see dead thread screaming for a lynch on me or Pvt.

[Map Wolf]

Map Wolf, what are your thoughts on a Faustiv GBJ team?

That's possible, although I think GBJ/Pvt is more likely.

Really, I don't have any for sure town among the 4 other players remaining. Except maybe lean town on Pvt and GBJ.

i really don't get why you scumread me over PvT

Mostly based on the theory that the pr read 420 is an attempt to protect scum partner. Also the fact that you haven't really been wrong so far regarding alignments; Pvt incorrectly suggested the scumteam was GL/MW

[Map Wolf]

By the way, I am open to it being Titus/Pvt...

Pvt really needs to post their thoughts.

[Map Wolf]

which wagon? The only wagon I joined was the BS wagon. the other ones I started,

I should clarify. Scum would want to join a potential mislynch wagon today.

[Map Wolf]

hmmmmmmm...
GBJ could actually be scum here.

There's been no resistance at all on GuiltyLion's wagon. PtvUrist is on the wagon. Map Wolf has announced intent to hammer it. So has GBJ. In contrast, there has been resistance on the Ptv and Map wagon, mainly coming from GBJ. He votes then unvotes soon after and shadethrows on GL. Though saying that, he was on the Titus wagon early D2 too. I'm not sure whether he's town with a scattered mindset or scum looking for the easy ML. I'm leaning more towards town though; seeing as he's been on 4 wagons today. I don't think he'd join those wagons so quickly as scum and then come off them so quickly too, it's just drawing attention to himself.

PEDIT: just seen GBJ's most recent post, saying if GL is mafia then partner is Map. I don't get this thought process. Could you explain it?

Do you view GBJ has town now? Just curious reading through this post.

Because Titus and faustiv and GBJ sure aren't scum

What GL writes here turns out to be false in hindsight. One of the three are scum.

[Map Wolf]

Map Wolf's posting feels really yucky. It's like she's throwing around who sticks with PvT but always pushes the other slot first...

Wrong pronoun assuming you are referring to me.

And yes, I am throwing around alignments, because I don't know what alignments people have for sure.

[Map Wolf]

Town needs all 3 votes but scum only needs 1.

Assuming Titus is town,

it's up to faustiv whether we win or lose this game.

Hmmmmmmmmmm...

[Map Wolf]

Correct me if I've misinterpreted here, but this is what I think people's views are.

-
Still prefer Titus lynch.

[Map Wolf]

what do the colours mean?

Green townread, yellow null/neutral, red scumread. Darker color indicates strong read.

[Map Wolf]

Okay so these are the 10 possible options for the setup. 4 (in grey) I eliminate by the virtue of them containing me. Another (brown) would basically imply Faustiv is pushing for a correct lynch (Pvt) rather than Titus.

The three in green are the ones involving Titus, all of which I find very possible. The remaining (in yellow) involve GBJ. GBJ advocates for either MW/Titus or Titus/Pvt. So for it to be GBJ/Pvt, he'd basically be hoping for a Titus or MW lynch, while still kind of bussing his partner. The other one in yellow is Faustiv/GBJ. This is what Titus thinks is possible. And I suppose it is, but that would truly be insane.

[Map Wolf]

Correct me if I've misinterpreted here, but this is what I think people's views are.

-
Still prefer Titus lynch.

This is yucky. Faustiv isn't at me and PvT are scumpartners at the exclusion of everyone else.

Second, you imply that I have done no work in sorting the game at all.

Third, you imply GBJ has PvT as lockscum despite not voting him.

I colored you and Pvt red on the Faustiv row since that's his main read, although I can see that as being a bit misleading.

I colored your row yellow because what you are basically implying is that it likely is Faustiv/GBJ OR MW/Pvt.

I colored GBJ --> Pvt dark red because he is implying that Pvt is almost certainly scum.

[Map Wolf]

Because Titus and faustiv and GBJ sure aren't scum

What GL writes here turns out to be false in hindsight. One of the three are scum.

why bring this up

Because I found it interesting. I like seeing posts that are wrong in hindsight.

[Map Wolf]

Because Titus and faustiv and GBJ sure aren't scum

What GL writes here turns out to be false in hindsight. One of the three are scum.

why bring this up

Because I found it interesting. I like seeing posts that are wrong in hindsight.

it pings me more as "this post is wrong because im obviously town" which i don't really like

Sure I get that.
-
I suppose that, unless we get some activity from Pvt soon, that we move to lynch Titus?
Now if Titus is town, then we honestly just deserve to lose this game. If scum is actually Faustiv/GBJ, then that's well played by them.
-
I am sure that GL's thoughts would've been different had he known that Rise was the pr.

[Map Wolf]

sorry folks, was traveling for the past two days and will have limited access for another week.

I really don't know who I think is scum here anymore. Not putting my vote on Map Wolf today.

So who do you think is the optimal lynch for today? Do you have any idea as to who the scumteam is?

[Map Wolf]

VOTE: gbj

I believe #753 clears it up, me and gbj is tvs. Here's my vote, do as you will with it. I apologize, but I have lost confidence in my ability to contribute much more this game.

How do you then think is second town, should GBJ be scum?

[Map Wolf]

If this game is still alive by tomorrow, then it'd imply that GBJ-Pvt is TvS. If not, then I'll be here for the postgame.´

Anyone casting a vote (within the next 12 hours) that'd create a L-1 wagon is scum in my book.

[Map Wolf]

VOTE: gbj

I believe #753 clears it up, me and gbj is tvs. Here's my vote, do as you will with it. I apologize, but I have lost confidence in my ability to contribute much more this game.

How do you then think is second town, should GBJ be scum?

Okay I fucked up heavily on the grammer here. Let me rephrase:

If GBJ is scum, who is their scum partner?

[Map Wolf]

Leaning towards Pvt/Titus. Good night.

[Map Wolf]

I KNEW IT. I LITERALLY CALLED OUT THE SCUMTEAM.........

To be honest I am super salty that GBJ voted Pvt.... Should've just hard pushed Titus.

[Map Wolf]

Honestly, I think Faustiv/Titus might actually be the scumteam. Think about this. We were split between Titus/GL for a while... And then comes the post from faustiv in 420: Titus is probably PR he suggests. From that point onwards, we all just assume that titus is pr.

We know for sure that the setup is A1: Mafia Roleblocker, Town Cop, Town Doctor. In other words, Mafia can't for sure know who is pr.
Now let's assume Titus is town. Why would scum not kill them? Now sure it could be some hard WIFOM, but that'd carry an insane risk if they were pr as a cop result could be super valuable. Titus being scum is certainly the best explanation for the nightkill. Now why not kill faustiv? Surely he was the most townread player. Again, WIFOM could be used as an argument, but I personally don't believe that faustiv would've been lynched anyway.

On the other hand, if Titus is scum, then you'd want to avoid killing a pr role. Now obviously scum wouldn't want to kill me nor Pvt, so that leaves GBJ, Rise and Faustiv, minus the one of them that could be scum. Surely, if Titus was scum, then mafia would incorrectly have thought that Rise was least likely to be PR.
So I think Titus is almost certainly scum and would probably be the best lynch. Faustiv is not as clear-cut, but it mainly comes down to 420 which to me seems like a gamble attempting to save a scummate. I'll need to read through the Rise ISO though.

For what's it's worth, both faustiv and titus were on the BS lynch, with titus coming with a really bad reasoning still. Titus was on the GL lynch, but Faustiv wasn't.

I LITERALLY SOLVE THE ENTIRE GAME EARLY IN THE DAY...
This is why I preferred Titus lynch. There was just no way Titus was town.

[Map Wolf]

I’m sorry! I’ll remember for next time about posting before game over.

But FAUS YOU’RE EVIL!! I’m truly impressed. Don’t think I played very well looking back on things but I tried my best. I have a lot to learn.

I think all the town played well except BS, but I think that’s because BS’ heart wasn’t in the game.

The whole move where you soft read Titus as pr was very good. Would've been even bigger of a win if I didn't notice it.

How did you manage to lynch Guilty Lion?

I hammered because I didn't want to be lynched myself, and because I didn't think Pvt was lock scum.

[Map Wolf]

I KNEW IT. I LITERALLY CALLED OUT THE SCUMTEAM.........

To be honest I am super salty that GBJ voted Pvt.... Should've just hard pushed Titus.

yeah I was impressed.

honestly I think if Titus died I was screwed. my intention was to try and buddy you into voting PvT or at least try and steer the lynch in that direction which seemed to work... kind of.

I am pretty sure either I or GBJ die if Titus is lynched. In that case, scum might still win if you push Pvt although obviously the votes might be a give-away.

[Map Wolf]

@map, ya did good! I was cheering for you in the dead thread lol

Thank you. It does feel a bit disappointing to lose in this kind of way though.

i feel bad for guiltylion after reading the dead thread.

also shocked he was lynched. if i wasn't scum i definitely would've defended him harder.

I would've probably hammered Pvt if I had the chance.

[Map Wolf]

Map is so on point today + I’m happy him and faus are trusting each other.

Ouch... [from the dead thread]

[Map Wolf]

The only reason Titus survived is because we assumed she was pr. That's why she clearly should've been lynched on d3 (and I should've pushed harder).
-
By the way, is there any reason you'd want to have a PT as a VT? (Beyond maybe for typing thoughts at night)