Mini Theme 2116 - Undertale S Open

[Psyche]

hi thread

[Psyche]

This is quite tough. Nothing super firm is coming easily. I hope the second read is a little easier.

[Psyche]

Okay, I'm committing to providing an initial analyses of each player before another night ends, CST. I apologize for my slow pace - I'm the type to put too much on his plate.

[Psyche]

i just can't focus ugh what have i done

[Psyche]

At very least, I'm sympathetic w/ suspicion against nacho. I think it's because I've picked up kinda high expectations for his townplay, and he doesn't seem to really be meeting them here. But that's so weak! I'm totally aware that it's so weak!

I don't like Hectic's or Sherlock's schtick. They're both quite distracting. I disagree w/ Nacho's mentioned rationale re:Hectic asserting the towniness of loose/chilled-out play. My experience is that it's way easier to relax in a game thread w/o the burden of having no idea who scum is. There's so much less responsibility for what you say in a situation like that - all sorts of bullshit becomes game!

Do agree though that Sujimishi's gameplay here is a lot different from his in micro 917. In general, Hectic's posts are reasonably substantive and don't seem very disingenuous. I guess in the end I do think the Spare call has some ground? Yeah, I'm actually willing to enthusiastically roll with that.

Ok, I feel better. I'm starting to get opinions. I'd rather we lynch people. But finding town can be so much easier than deciding someone's scum, in my experience. Ugh.

[Psyche]

HEAL: Hectic

im not a sheep im a freethinker im just freely associating. ha free association get it i have a psychology schtick

[Psyche]

i betcha alimdia is scum

[Psyche]

i don't think im SLing nacho anymore

[Psyche]

I'd like to run a questionary to everyone.

Say you need to pick exactly one scum in {nacho, amrun, chara and suji}. Who do you pick and why?

I'm not currently interested in theories where there are no scum or more than one scum among those, the premise is that there is exactly one. Let's try it. It's going to be useful.

@Replica, Sherlock, Psyche, can you answer this for me? I'll ask Toriel to prepare cookies if you do

probably amrun. chara is null too though. i just haven't found any towntells in two relatively long isos.

[Psyche]

nacho could be scum rn and his professed hectic read would

still

be broadly sound

[Psyche]

because scumreads are hard

[Psyche]

[float=]h[/float]Disagree w/ SH's reasoning (don't think the relationship between a play's optimality and scumminess is around 1:1 like he's suggesting) but in general am doubtful that scum optimizing their readlists to prioritize removing threats from the game is really a thing.

[Psyche]

also thank god the roleplaying stopped

[Psyche]

saying "this is my first time as mafia" while in other ongoing games is really skeevy for the record

[Psyche]

i wanna walk through the logic to make sure that's what's happened...

[Psyche]

Subject: Saga Mafia Threats to Hazel PT

Hey mastina! I think that I should keep my current role, if that is okay with you. This is my first time as Mafia, and being assured of death prior to Day 3 relieves some of the pressure for me.

Suji started this game after s/he started this one. I think that dropping the tone in that comment is entirely natural, and wasn’t planned out as a safeguard against that game ending first, which makes me strongly believe they had rolled town in this game before getting their scum PM there.

This is why I said it was angleshooty and I still think it’s kind of ick, but I would like us to move on from suji!scum discussion.

Dated to Mon Jan 20, 2020 8:48 pm

Hey everyone!

Dated to Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:51 pm

Okay, so why aren't we just sparing this slot today? It's problematic but "You must play to win the game" means "You must play to win the game".

HEAL: Sujimichi

[Psyche]

??? are you blind?
we have confirmed town right before us, why are you depending on weakly reasoned scumreads instead

[Psyche]

As far as I'm concerned, we have 4-5 sure spares lined up already. Scum will surely kill a couple of them, but the game is practically in the bag. All we have to do is execute.

[Psyche]

I'm sorry but that's inconceivable. This is close to a confirmation as can imaginably occur without mod/PR intervention. Are you scum?

[Psyche]

Suji
Sherlock
Hectic
Nachomamma
Me

I'd bet the whole game on this entire group being town. And god surely hates someone in the scumteam if the IC isn't among these. I simply do not need any scumreads this game and don't care if you don't like it. Let's just end this and go next.

[Psyche]

For clarity, I would have made the "this is my first time as Mafia" comment if I had received a Mafia role in this game as I would only be discussing completed games per the site rules. This is not a good reason to town read me in this game.

i don't believe you

[Psyche]

Should I go into detail why I don't believe you? Why I don't believe you'd go out of your way to lie in a PT when you could have conveyed your inexperience some other way?

[Psyche]

The sentence is a reference to ongoing games whether it was false or not. And I've been clear that I'm only for sparing.

[Psyche]

I don't care whether it breaks the rules or not, the quote speaks to a state of mind that leaves me all but certain you hadn't recently received a scum role pm elsewhere. I can hardly imagine anyone sincerely doubting you're town here.

[Psyche]

I took some time to chill out. I still think this game is basically solved. But I guess it's not really solved unless I have a plurality of people agreeing. Still strikes me as odd that more people don't see how obvious our winroute is rn??? I haven't been in the position of having confident reads to push in a really long time. I'm gonna have to work myself up to going through the trouble.

[Psyche]

It's so absurd that people so uneasy about the idea that sujimichi's PT posts are a clear towntell are pushing some of the shoddiest scumreads I've seen in years. Others agree that it's a definite towntell but have their spare votes somewhere else??? Let me highlight a few examples.

[Psyche]

You're still null. Just as Amrun's reaction to the Suji revelation made me more suspicious of her, your going out of your way to act like it doesn't dramatically up the slot's odds of being town is also super dubious. But I always try to overweight the possibility that I MIGHT BE CRAZY I GUESS.

[Psyche]

Why does the thought even come to mind to Sujimichi for him to say "This is my first time as scum" if it isn't? Why would he even volunteer that information if it were not the case? What is the alternative theory of what's going through his mind to make him write that post?

The theory people are pretending is a serious alternative account of his behavior doesn't even begin to provide answers these questions. He consciously realizes that the sentence could suggest stuff about his other games, and then decides to say it anyway? Are we seriously believing this is about as likely as him getting excited about rolling scum and in the emotion saying something he technically shouldn't?

[Psyche]

I think Psyche is too sure about Sujimichi and it might make him scum. Whereas Sherlock I think is extremely town for how they went about it.

I thought a lot about this yesterday, I agree with you. The only issue for me was trying to figure out the scum incentive for him to push for 3/4 spares incl. Sujimichi/Sherlock. I think it makes sense if he thinks we won't actually spare the 3/4 people like he advocates, instead using it mostly to posture. That seems very plausible to me.

I don't think the spare route is worthwhile unless the town has a lot of strong early townreads. This is the only reason I listed or even mentioned a list of several people. I think this is a really important part of my gamestance to underline here: I would normally prefer lynching people for the rest of the game if we didn't already have so many good townreads available before even learning who the IC is.

I don't think scum sherlock volunteers or even seeks out the new info we have on Sujimishi. Why, even if he as scum had some other reason to read Suji's PT and sees the post, I don't think he as scum assesses it as potentially clearing the slot in this game. It's just not a priority scum has, and I think it takes a lot of deliberate attention and task-directed effort to produce the analysis of the PT post that he did. I'm about as confident in my SH read as I am in my Suji read for these public, easy to explain reasons.

The Hectic read isn't as confident. It's just a normal strong town read, which I explained earlier. Given my other reads, I'd prefer to spare someone else. By the time sparing those targets is already passed as an option, we'll either be even more sure he's town or will have to re-evaluate. But my strong townread is not just based on posts already here, but on a strong expectation that we'll get more evidence of his town mindset as the game goes on. I've said earlier - I think I'm a lot better at PoE than finding scum. My Hectic read fits into this strategy.

And then my nacho read has a similar basis to the sherlock read - he did a thing i doubt scum can organize the cognitive resources to do - but is weaker by comparison. I'd hope we could spare my other reads and even myself before committing to sparing nacho. We'll have many more posts, many more tells by then. But I'd still bet the game now that he's town, and all these reads are town. (It's a game - it's not like I'm betting a lot!)

I think that the situation where my assessment/strategy gets enough consensus for a Suji spare today is one where at least 3 people in my list end up spared even if I flake out overnight. A ball gets rolling w/ a Sujimichi spare and two clear options for a D2 spare (I imagine one will be killed) - all with the town IC still unknown! - that is hard for me to imagine scum overcoming. They just get too little wiggle room. No opportunities to PR hunt (the absence of lynch wagons that might elicit a PR claim even further this). Just an unstoppable plan with some but a quite low chance of failure.

If you really do agree at least with the

intuition

that Suji is probably town, along with SH and Hectic, then I don't know how you square the scum motive for earnestly advocating their sparing with the concrete losses to the faction associated with these outcomes. It's just not a calculation that makes sense fmpov. If I were scum, I imagine I'd commit to obfuscating rather than insisting on the significance of the Sujimishi revelation - unless he (or SH) were my scumbud or something I suppose. Is that the read of the gamestate you're leading yourself into? Because I just don't know how you do that, I don't.

[Psyche]

pedit: because it's true if ongoings don't exist.

so my understanding is that you're suggesting there's a equivalent probability that as scum he put the game so far out of mind that he essentially did have the mental state that would drive a person to say "this is my first scum game here"

i think the opposite is more likely - if sujimishi is having his first pair scumgames simultaneously, then a post like that in a scum PT is going to come from someone with the other PT in mind too. it's too striking an experience not to.

further, it's one thing to say "this sort of sentence is valid if ongoings don't exist" but another to say "this sort of sentence is likely when you're pretending ongoings don't exist" and imo you're casting the two as equivalent. his mental state and the kinds of sentences under said mental state are what's in question here.

[Psyche]

I agree farkran - suji then sherlock then hectic is my preferred order.

As for confidence without scumreads - it's because townreads can occur without looking for scum. I basically haven't figured out how to scumhunt - I'm fundamentally unsure what to look for. I do have a more-or-less cohesive idea of how to townhunt, though. Games happen too slowly/rarely for me to tell confidently whether it's any good or not (and positive feedback on townreads is in general more common than positive feedback on scumreads), but I have high hopes for it.

(Rather than trying to detail it precisely, though, I'd rather focus on producing specific example reads from this game for players here to evaluate - just for the record.)

[Psyche]

replica's honestly a blur to me so many of you are just blurs how do people play this damned game

ok lemme try:
i think there's good evidence in his iso of trying, of reaching for and game-advancing reads and ways to convince people of those things. but i give a bit more credence to what i perceive as successes at that - in my experience it's kind of easy as scum to fake trying, after all (you can get through a whole game as scum by performing "unsucessful trying" - it conveys a town motive without needlessly preventing mislynches). i don't see any grand successes that scum only have weak reasons to pursue (and should find difficulty

cognitively

at achieving anyway), so i don't have any strong townread.

but yeah, lean town?

yeesh who does that leave?

Hectic TOWN
JTheophrastus Bartholomew Who?
Asriel Dreemurr Who?
Amrun HmM
Chara hmm
Nachomamma8 moderate town
Billy Pilgrim WHO?
Chemist1422 ???
SherlockHolmes TOWN
alimdia HMM
Pine TOWN

ok i'm unsubtly asking for an updated playerlist

[Psyche]

Ok, I'm good with a sherlock heal.

HEAL: Sherlock

[Psyche]

was scared for a moment that alimdia had been replaced by someone im townreading that would be a disaster but nope we're good i checked

[Psyche]

if u turn out to be scum amrum i will experience a catharsis unheard of since st paul was restored the power of sight

[Psyche]

i wonder if i could compute an EV comparing a blind spare strategy against a blind lynch strategy and from there try to guess the relative value of differently confident townreads against differently confident scumreads in this game

meh there's no way i get that done before deadline

[Psyche]

who needs information with a D1 this juicy

[Psyche]

Suppose we just keep going until the well of we're-never-gonna-lynch-these-dudes townreads is dry and then get back to lynching. Are we really in a worse state than if we lynched our (frankly) much weaker scumreads in all that time?

That's not a rhetorical question, I'm either bad or lazy at math or both.

[Psyche]

I guess from my point of view, our likely spare priorities through the end of Day 3 have super low odds of being scum, and given that, the need for more information is negligible since the game is basically won.

[Psyche]

I guess another hidden assumption in my pov is that we are shitty scumhunters with shitty scumreads who will mislynch a lot of people without really gaining much new information about who's scum by D4. Maybe that's too cynical? It might be too cynical. We do (probably) have nacho after all.

[Psyche]

if you want i can pretend i think ur town bc of that vote i do like it even if i have no idea if it's right or not

[Psyche]

why aren't you more open to healing sherlock though are you mad at him

[Psyche]

amrun's hurting anenomie!

[Psyche]

good question good question indeedy

[Psyche]

would have to be convinced that the fight target has better than meagerly-higher-than-random odds of actually being scum

[Psyche]

im trying to reduce how often i check on and make posts in this thread if i dont pace myself it's all over for me all over

[Psyche]

I remain sure that we can find 4 town players given this D1.

[Psyche]

I know I'm biased though. I am biased because I don't think I'm good at scumhunting at all. We can still play PoE with our townreads I guess. The more I think about it, the more I shouldn't care one way or the other whether we commit to sparing. Very little time to consolidate on a decent lynch candidate though.

[Psyche]

A big part of me wishes I could just skip to end and see if I'm right. But this is part of the game tooo yes i know ugh shut up

[Psyche]

I am the Friendly Neighbor.

Awesome - that's one less conftown we can put in the sparing pool. Our chances to win are rising by the minute.

Yeah, i'm being sarcastic. Perhaps a bit too much. I am salty about this whole setup spec debate.

Eh, yeah. Sorry suji, it's not even your fault. I think i have crossed the line.

aw what bad luck

[Psyche]

one underrated downside of sparing sujimichi is that he'll be gone and ill be all alone all alone

[Psyche]

ah clarity

[Psyche]

its saturday ill be fine

[Psyche]

hey if we can get a good scumread i'd be happy to lynch but i'm not lynching a nullread because information

[Psyche]

I think the easiest spare is Hectic for the same reasons he was the top spare candidate before Suji's slip.

[Psyche]

i should try to scumhunt at least as practice ok

[Psyche]

oh you worry too much

[Psyche]

i still scumlean people who were slow to townread sujimichi

[Psyche]

in general im really skeptical of people who seem to systematically insist on ambiguity in the game that's not really there. sujimichi town was an easy call but a lot of people preferred to exaggerate the possibility that the signals were misleading. i wonder if we might've had a more sober conversation about whether lynching D1 was a better idea than sparing all-but-definite town if it weren't for the concerted obfuscation of the fact that he was all-but-definite town. making the game seem more mysterious than it really is only helps scum and gives them more room to hide.

it's possible that there was sincere disagreement between townies about the information in sujimichi's PT post, but i wouldn't be surprised at all if much of it turned out to have been an expression of the other faction's awareness that 2 town getting cleared so early in the game without PR exposure was not good for their win odds

[Psyche]

i remember hearing some time ago that bert gets really bored and disengaged as scum. is that a false memory?

[Psyche]

oh nachomamma isn't bert of course

[Psyche]

all your reads seem super wrong

while there are just some weird contradictions in your reasoning (for example you quote a post where i acknowledge where scum will kill townclears, but elsewhere you say i don't consider that consensus townreads are gonna die kinda weird), in general i think the systemic problem with the way you develop reads is that you associate towniness far too readily w/ tight, cautious, analytical, thorough play - or more specifically w/ play and positioning like yours

think that's the lesson you'll hopefully pick up once the game's all said and done

[Psyche]

unless you're scum lol

[Psyche]

those aren't really antonyms to tight, cautious, analytical, thorough at all

[Psyche]

and it doesn't really match your description of my play either
for example, aren't you mad that i'm super conclusive? that i'm more ready to commit to uncertain reads than you are?

the answer might actually be "no" to that, and that's a weird thing about your case against me
you call me overconfident about some reads in one line but complain about my readiness to say "null" and acknowledge uncertainty in another?
looked at fully it seems like you're just mad that i have...reads of varying strength?

maybe i just have the advantage of my perspective, but there's just so little of substance in such a long post with so many links

[Psyche]

would love to throw more red meat into the game but im wary of getting too engaged again and neglecting my job
i'm liking replica more for town these days. suppose it's smarter to save attempts at any detailed towncases for after scum takes a kill, though, right?
rather wary of chemist but if we had to lynch today he wouldn't be a very likely target at all
hectic still seems a fine spare. people are insisting that he's not, but all those cases suck. i could try harder to push the read, but it is pretty early in the day.
alimdia's slot is the closest thing to a scumread ive had in years. the iso genuinely reads as someone just going through the motions of scumhunting. some people are just disengaged, sure, but for a solid portion of the game alimdia more-or-less wasn't: they were engaged but producing shit anyway. it makes me feel better about it that the replacement isn't pinging very differently, though of course he's more outwardly shit; even that only looks like a "too scum" strategy to me. i'd be willing to lynch it just to get quicker feedback on whether i have any scumsense or not. there's a romance to a 4 spare win, but it'd be fun to win by the end of D3 too, yeah?

I feel surprisingly good about Hectic being town, considering it being page 5 and all.

There's a gorgeous feel good concoction brewing over there - a healthy mix of a strong, confident tone and a gimmick that I believe scum would be less comfortable implementing than town. The combination of both gives a loose cannon feel which I feel is significantly less likely coming from scum - as scum, you are forced to contend with your partners whispering in your ear and also silently sort of judging you whenever you are doing something crazy as Hectic is doing now whereas as town the people who lynch you are technically wrong, so it often feels less risky to go off the ranch in significant a way as Hectic has.

Now, some people might point out that Sherlock is also doing a gimmick and no I don't think it has anything to do with his alignment - that's his posting in general (aka seems like someone made a gimmick alt) and thus there's an expectation that he keeps up with it/a higher chance that's something he decided to do when he made the alt as opposed to a gametime decision like Hectic likely made here.

In the bits of scumhunting that he's done there's not obviously a ton but I do like that he pointed out the +town on Chemist's entrance. I don't understand why Billy ends up his spare vote instead of the Chemist (why go for the diluted townjuice when you can go for the pure stuff?), but I'm digging his vibes and so for now he is my spirit animal.

this post by nachomamma is still quite a strong one; his discourse surrounding the spare/hurt dilemma was clean too, and he pointed out convincing info demonstrating suji town even before SH came in and removed all doubt
even with his flakiness lately (and yeah that hurts my read of him), i still feel like a nachotown case is surprisingly easy to cohesively make. it's so easy to distinguish his vigor from that of someone like alimdea.

oh right but i'm supposed to avoid making towncases for anyone but hectic today ugh
i suppose it's too much to overthink this - it's a dangerous slope to start being ambiguous about my reads, especially if i'm hoping to be a viable spare candidate later on
the pressure towards ambiguity could be a good reason to lynch scum that i previously ignored though

ok that's all i'm doing today i hope.

[Psyche]

those aren't really antonyms to tight, cautious, analytical, thorough at all

I have seen players hunt by relaxed play. That's not what you're doing here.

and it doesn't really match your description of my play either
for example, aren't you mad that i'm super conclusive? that i'm more ready to commit to uncertain reads than you are?

the answer might actually be "no" to that, and that's a weird thing about your case against me
you call me overconfident about some reads in one line but complain about my readiness to say "null" and acknowledge uncertainty in another?
looked at fully it seems like you're just mad that i have...reads of varying strength?

maybe i just have the advantage of my perspective, but there's just so little of substance in such a long post with so many links

You aren't conclusive at all, at least by what i think the word "conclusive" implies. If you mean to say that you jump to conclusions without passing through reasoning, then yes, you're super conclusive. I usually associate conclusiveness with the concept of deducing/inducing motives about <something>, and then declare that <something>. You are overconfident about how this game should go, and about very few specific reads (which include yourself, no less), but you have no reasoning to back your reads up, and no scumreads at all.

Last but not least, these two posts seem to be specifically aimed at turning my question back at me rather than answering it. Do you have any reads? Post them. Do you have reasoning to back up such reads? Post reasoning.

i think this is a misrepresentation; i've posted a lot of really detailed analyses of motivations and mindset. my work on sujimichi and sherlock come to mind. more will come up as they strike me. and i already had a lot of reads in my iso before my last post. you gotta try to do more with the content you have if you want to have ok reads someday.

[Psyche]

those aren't really antonyms to tight, cautious, analytical, thorough at all

I have seen players hunt by relaxed play. That's not what you're doing here.

this sidesteps the observation that you posed some adjectives as a contrast / in opposition to those i listed that didn't really fit the bill

ok i really should go

[Psyche]

You couldn't powerlynch me if you tried. The case is just too weak.

[Psyche]

people talk a big game about sujimchi/sh now but several players then were insisting that his towniness was an open question

[Psyche]

a parting shot:

TOWN
Nacho
Amrun
Chara
Alimidia
Replica
Hectic
Chemist
--- TRUE NULL LINE ---
SherlockHolmes
Psyche
Sujimichi
SCUM

[Psyche]

(yeah that was before the townslip - i'm more making a comment about his robust process "of deducing/inducing motives about <something>, and then declaring that <something>")

[Psyche]

i dontthink it's hindsighty i voiced these same sentiments in the moment
besides sujimishi's thing is our closest thing to a flip rn besides the night kill; it's probably worthy of more analysis than we've so far afforded it

[Psyche]

you misunderstood my point about sujimichi

[Psyche]

even after the towntell, several including you insisted that sujimichi wasn't plainly town while i did. you were wrong.

before the towntell, farkran read sujimichi and sherlock as scum. both those reads were wrong (and the psyche read is wrong too). farkran's track record on reads in general this game is pretty sorry and invites self-reflection. in my experience we won't see it even after the game is done and flips are finished.

otoh i'm pretty sure every read i've committed to (averred confidence in) so far and beyond will turn out right. at least i have a lot of fun committing to implausible shit like that. ahh the rush in self-aware conceit

these are both just side points but i make em because i'm comically insecure and felt slighted about my play. i should be more chill and cool and friendly — or at least a bit more focused i mean cmon

im so sorry for most everything leading up to this post though seriously and will go get some sleep

[Psyche]

as an offering to show my renewed commitment to player solidarity i will express a read on chara:

[Psyche]

Rather, he's mocking me.

i dont mean to be this sort of person

[Psyche]

i think my read on alimdea is firm i'd be all about lynching him if i were all about lynching people

[Psyche]

wow what a bold misrep

[Psyche]

you've just moved from saying's amrun's 1108 case is just her advocating for a policy lynch on you for not tryharding...to acknowledging that she actually spent

most

of the case (the two largest of three paragraphs!) focused on alimdia that wasn't policy lynch advocacy

[Psyche]

(and even if you pretend that the third paragraph is the

whole

case as your 1132 does, "bingle wouldnt replace in if he were busy" is very much a mindset-based case, not policy lynch advocacy)

[Psyche]

alimdia's iso looked like someone going through the motions, generating the rough appearance of scumhunting-focused content but never really signaling real effort/desire toward that end.
blinkle's looks like someone deliberately assembling a "too scum" defense — dude somehow found a way unconvincingly fake

disengagement

from the game

also i wanna point out with the momentary supposition that bingle is town — it's not day 5 with 200+ pages. pops would have found a replacement for alimdea within several days. the idea that he was desperate and was better off filling the slot with someone openly uninterested in the game instead of waiting for someone with the time and energy come by is just bizarre and speaks to savior complex on bingle's part (that doesn't suit his ingame style here either!).

I mean, pops never even made a post in the replacements thread!

[Psyche]

you've just moved from saying's amrun's 1108 case is just her advocating for a policy lynch on you for not tryharding...to acknowledging that she actually spent

most

of the case (the two largest of three paragraphs!)
focused on alimdia that wasn't policy lynch advocacy

I’ll bite. What part of her case that isn’t “I want to policy lynch jingle” am I supposed to be able to engage over?

How is wanting to lynch me on the basis that I’m not going back to read the rest of the game and am going to devote significantly less effort to this game than I usually do as either alignment not policy?

i barely ever engage with cases on me; i just object to pretending a case is something other than what it is

[Psyche]

it was an inaccurate representation of the case though

[Psyche]

plainly peddling bullshit

[Psyche]

bungle going out of his way to respond to an offhand almost rhetorical question about the case on him is incompatible with the idea that he was ignoring the case on him

bungle did not just provide a representation of all amrun has done that he could respond to — he claimed that "all amrum had done that he could respond to" was in fact

all

amrun had done

his part in this whole discussion since has just been incoherent hand-waving

seems no matter who sits in the slot we get lame questionable play

[Psyche]

lol

[Psyche]

1158 could be a town-indicative post
kind of an easy move to fake though
i wish i had my great vca dataset ready
could really supplement my playstyle, something like that

[Psyche]

irrelevant!

[Psyche]

come on nacho you wouldnt want me telling everyone ur a vonflare alt

[Psyche]

They don’t tend to push unpopular things when they can afford to sit on their hands, no.

ooh this is such an interesting and testable idea
but i don't get what it means - what does it mean for a player to sit on their hands? no vote at all? just sheeping? lurking? can scum usually afford that kind of disengagement for long?

[Psyche]

Why was Sherlock killed last night?

Subject: Saga Mafia Threats to Hazel PT

Hey mastina! I think that I should keep my current role, if that is okay with you. This is my first time as Mafia, and being assured of death prior to Day 3 relieves some of the pressure for me.

Suji started this game after s/he started this one. I think that dropping the tone in that comment is entirely natural, and wasn’t planned out as a safeguard against that game ending first, which makes me strongly believe they had rolled town in this game before getting their scum PM there.

This is why I said it was angleshooty and I still think it’s kind of ick, but I would like us to move on from suji!scum discussion.

[Psyche]

chara seems a weird spare choice for today
i don't know how anyone can be

that

certain he's town

[Psyche]

bizarre

[Psyche]

you've gotta know we can't afford to spare even ambiguous slots how do you even bring alimdia into the conversation about sparing

[Psyche]

and "instincts"?? we can't spare based on rough gutreads

[Psyche]

think there are a few safe spare calls today
would rather seem the nk miss them so feel uneasy about pushing all of them
and at the same time, it's probably better to focus on exploring and generating content this early in the day
i can get us a consensus more easily with a deadline looming anyway
god i have got to work on my sleep habits im not at 100% at all rn

[Psyche]

i'll worry about how easy it is for you to read me when there's above-zero chance of me getting lynched
and i really doubt we'll have much trouble putting together a consensus read today

[Psyche]

Ooh, I think I have a new read. I disagree w/ Farkran on a lot of things but I think I have very little doubt that he's town compared to even Hectic. Seems super obvious that he's looking for scum in all.

[Psyche]

They don’t tend to push unpopular things when they can afford to sit on their hands, no.

ooh this is such an interesting and testable idea
but i don't get what it means - what does it mean for a player to sit on their hands? no vote at all? just sheeping? lurking? can scum usually afford that kind of disengagement for long?

Eh. It’s not so much who is engaged as who is rocking the boat, but sure.

Like, for example Amrun is definitely engaged and paddling, but nothing she’s doing seems likely to drop a big rock in the pond. Farkran (by virtue of amruns description of his play) seems like he’s trying to throw that rock.

That doesn’t make Amrun scum, btw. Town tunnel and maintain gamestate too.

gosh man i like the intuitiveness of the idea but im just not sure
excited to see how it pans out

[Psyche]

oh right im supposed to be scumreading you
ah well

[Psyche]

could this dude really be town? gosh then who could be scum?

[Psyche]

oh for me certain just means i'd feel safe betting the whole game on it. not 100%. could it be 80%? idk it's a tough thing to quantify a threshold like that; people have tried
i'd bet the whole game that you're town rn. and it'd be a good bet, wouldn't it, huh?

[Psyche]

but again rn i just wanna explore. keep my mind open. engage w/ arguments. dance with the rhythm of all ur souls. flirt with nacho??? platonically.
in the end i agree that it'd be much better to find a scumread i feel ok betting the whole game on.

[Psyche]

we didnt mean to spare the fn
the guy who got confirmed as town from his behavior just happen to also have the role guaranteeing he'd never be lynched
i'll never get over the bad luck of it all

[Psyche]

well you know what they say
when you skin a bear you get his fur too

[Psyche]

damn it bingle

[Psyche]

ive got like 4 non-townreads now
and honestly believing those 4 each have a 50% chance of being scum is a tough pill to swallow
could i
could i have a wrong read??

[Psyche]

in general i don't vote much
guess i don't see the point of it unless i'm ready to see someone hammered now?
i'm already communicating my reads after all

besides i like the idea of not sparing you until later since i imagine scum will prefer to kill someone with better reads lol (IM SORRY)

[Psyche]

i get it i get it it's just so hard gimme a day ill spare someone maybe even fight someone it'll be rad

[Psyche]

why do you do this to me bingle
you were the chosen one
it was said that you would flip as scum not convincingly hunt for them
bring balance to my readlist, not leave it in darkness

[Psyche]

no no i take credit my pressure campaign brought out five-eighths-assed bingle

[Psyche]

[fight]amrun[/fight]

so i can have one on someone i dont feel confident about

[Psyche]

i have a lot of rlly strong townreads its frankly concerning

[Psyche]

thats weird

[Psyche]

i cannot hide
the palpitations of my heart

[Psyche]

i was so young and naive back then

and yet all those reads are accurate

[Psyche]

I never really realized that 3 town spares and a scum lynch is as much a win as 4 town spares.
I'm kind of mediocre intellectually the more I think about it.
Oh well good thing life isn't about being good at stuff.
Unless I'm wrong about that as well.

[Psyche]

I never really realized that 3 town spares and a scum lynch is as much a win as 4 town spares.
I'm kind of mediocre intellectually the more I think about it.
Oh well good thing life isn't about being good at stuff.
Unless I'm wrong about that as well.

it's way more of a win because scum are forced to submit a nightkill on themselves

and i'm well aware that my desire for a flashy win is a well-known Achilles heel of mine and thus i need people to keep my honest but i really do think that winning via scum being forced to select themselves as one of their nightkills is really fucking awesome

im a flashy dude myself
but i think there's a lot of appeal in a defeat that's gradual and inevitable too

[Psyche]

damn it i dont want a target on my back im supposed to be controversial

[Psyche]

this has been the best several pages all game
i have this deadline tuesday
i have time to mostly disengage until tuesday right?

[Psyche]

this idea of "read progression" as alignment-indicative is quite interesting, seems ubiquitous, and has intuitive appeal
i just dont know how i'd test whether it's bullshit or not
maybe instead of a dataset of votes i need a dataset of reads

[Psyche]

Can we just talk about this?

i think you need to start getting more comfortable w the idea that the day is probably not going to end in a way you approve of

[Psyche]

this idea of "read progression" as alignment-indicative is quite interesting, seems ubiquitous, and has intuitive appeal
i just dont know how i'd test whether it's bullshit or not
maybe instead of a dataset of votes i need a dataset of reads

shit now i cant talk about this outside the thread

[Psyche]

maybe we spare farkran sooner rather than later
i'd say he's more definitely town than hectic after all

[Psyche]

hmm interesting post

...yeah im picking up townreads too easily

[Psyche]

im maddened by both the prospect of mislynching and of missparring

[Psyche]

i agreee

[Psyche]

I would rather mislynch by a WIDE margin. At least we know.

there's no reason we shouldn't already be confident about our target's alignment before the flip happens

[Psyche]

I would rather mislynch by a WIDE margin. At least we know.

the idea that there's no one in this long ass game we can peg as town w near certainty is frankly as unfathomable as the prospect of sujimichi scum was yesterday
i think yet again you're unduly overstating the game uncertainty to the town's detriment

[Psyche]

we dont really need to spare farkran to win
spare me instead

[Psyche]

ur a damned liar and an alt

[Psyche]

what if we play a game of mafia inside this game of mafia and whomever wins picks the spare

[Psyche]

for example Psyche has mentioned how i'm a good SPARE and that he should probably towncase me but not done much in actually trying to convince people...

it's frankly a more tedious case to make than i first supposed

[Psyche]

HEAL: Bingle

[Psyche]

i've been open about my bingle tr for a while

[Psyche]

Yeah I remember you waffling a few days ago, my confusion was more from the timing of it, given that it came shortly after my/Amrun's discussion and I think it's your first spare vote all day. "Open about it" also really just means open that it might have existed, less so than, like, actually trying to make a case for it.

The first thought that popped into mind was that were trying to run interference on a Hectic/Chara spare coalition but I don't think you'd be that blatant and I think you'd know it wouldn't really work.

ive already been clear about my attitudes re: voting and making cases for things

[Psyche]

mislynching today is not going to help us win

[Psyche]

HEAL: farkran

[Psyche]

So, right now you have enough confidence in yourself that:

- i am the worst player that ever existed, both as town because i have terrible reads, and as scum because you caught me immediately
- amrun has shit-level reads
- psyche is the worst town player that ever existed for giving momentum to my spare wagon
- bingle is so town that his flip will glow like pristine elucidated emeralds

So much that you are willing to:
- spare a slot you don't like over Chara or Bingle himself
- concede your strategy, that you promoted with such vehemency ever since you joined, by lynching a slot in d2

To prevent a bingle flip.

Yes, absolutely yes. Yes to all of these loaded questions and assertions.

Psyche if you're listening you are the worst town player I have ever encountered for this single read in a single game and I don't know how you live with yourself. You are rivaled only by Amrun, whose reads match up with mine completely minus one, because her reads are OBVIOUSLY SHIT

im gonna make fun of you for this post when the game is over jsyk

[Psyche]

i would prefer to put off sorting hectic for another day
i'd say the basis of my TR for him is just less concrete than mine for other leading alternatives

[Psyche]

getting a town role pm doesn't turn you into a saint nor into a virtuoso

[Psyche]

i still dont have a chara read

[Psyche]

because my argument for scum Farkran has never been "well, he's bad."

at this point it's more like i find it hard to believe town Farkran doesn't reconsider when even players townreading him seem to think he's awful, because that's all i keep getting whenever i ask why he's town.
"well, i don't agree, but i like his fervor", or whatever it was you just said.
and i'm not calling him awful. to be clear. the issue here is i haven't seen evidence of Farkran really considering any outside opinions about... basically anything. well not the only issue but an issue.

Farkran: there are other things i'd like you to respond to but this post especially would be nice.

what about not considering outside opinions the way farkran has is alignment-indicative?
i'm not seeing a possibility for inference about anything beyond personality in that

[Psyche]

i still dont have a chara read

do you have any

thoughts

on me at all?

you are an enigma
i feel like i'm supposed to townread you, but it's just not happening
i have a few guesses why - after all, someone difficult the way you are comes up in every game - but i don't know how to find any clarity about it before you flip

[Psyche]

I suppose my perception is that, despite your protestations, the rationales provided for your farkran scumreads are indistinguishable from criticisms of his play.

The "i haven't seen evidence of Farkran really considering any outside opinions about... basically anything" line is, again, a good example of this. How does that connect to him being scum?

I'd really rather Chara answer over anyone else pushing the wagon.

[Psyche]

pedit: if Farkran is always like this, it's personality. there's no way to know that without poking at it, which is why i wanted Farkran to reply.
and it's still an issue if he's town.

if there's "no way to know" if it's personality then why does it come up in 1559, a post ostensibly about why you think farkran is scummy?

[Psyche]

I suppose my perception is that, despite your protestations, the rationales provided for your farkran scumreads are indistinguishable from criticisms of his play.

The "i haven't seen evidence of Farkran really considering any outside opinions about... basically anything" line is, again, a good example of this. How does that connect to him being scum?

I'd really rather Chara answer over anyone else pushing the wagon.

that's what i'm trying to figure out here. it's why i'm not voting to lynch him right now. i'm

not

confident he's scum.

if it's his personality, he can show me that himself in response. and if it

is

, maybe that could prompt some sort of rethinking on how he approaches the game. i don't know. mafia's a team game and i don't think soloing it is a good idea in the first place.

and if it's because he's scum, then i think it's a deliberate way to make him difficult to argue with, and possibly an attempt to emulate headstrong town.

again, your reasoning for him being town would be nice.

see a lot here about how you're not confident he's scum but nothing that's a rationale for thinking he's scum

[Psyche]

suppose my rationale for farkran town is still that he seems to be really and sincerely obsessed with gamesolving and pursuing the town wc

do i really need to explain what i see in his posts that leads me to this feeling? is it really not obvious what the broad strokes of a farkran towncase looks like with this thesis? it just seems like a broadly predictable argument

[Psyche]

see a lot here about how you're not confident he's scum but nothing that's a rationale for thinking he's scum

i mean it's in the post, you disagreeing with it doesn't make it not exist.

can you point where

[Psyche]

and if it's because he's scum, then i think it's a deliberate way to make him difficult to argue with, and possibly an attempt to emulate headstrong town.

it could be personality =/= it's personality.

you're not going to agree with me but don't pretend i can't scumread someone while also continuing to sort them.

there's nothing here that

explains a scumread though

you've said yourself that there's

no way to know whether it's personality or not

that equates to a nullread at best
what makes you

lean

scum?

[Psyche]

anyway the deadline that's been distracting me is past so i engage a bit more now

[Psyche]

ill admit that i haven't taken replica''s case seriously yet
he's provided a useful guide to it recently and i'll engage with it soon - it's my top priority for this game

[Psyche]

golly
id laugh irl if i weren't playing this game

[Psyche]

well i wanted an obvtown unlikely to get NKed

[Psyche]

HEAL: Hectic

[Psyche]

chara wasn't a big surprise at all for me but farkran was
wouldve preferred the town stick to a spare strategy but oh well

[Psyche]

Sujimichi never violated any rules, because he did/would have simply make posts using the "ongoing games don't exist" style. This concept seemed more foreign to players in the thread the less they knew Sujimichi's personality, and the less they themselves multitable. I posted posts in that style about three times in scum PTs last year.

the "style" and the mindset are two different things
scum sujimichi simply would never have had the mindset to make that post

[Psyche]

I don’t understand why people fought so hard in favour of sparing when that was just going to leave things more confused for the remaining players as the game went on due to lack of info revealed under their control, and scumteam was able to capitalise on that to have excellent positioning into the endgame

i could never understand the confusion, i guess
people in general itt seemed way to quick to second-guess and search for ambiguity in relatively clear contexts

i imagined that my deliberately casual style would keep me alive longer and allow me keep things going my why

[Psyche]

way*