Newbie 1984 - Game Over

[John Marv]

Skimmed through the thread, here are current reads;

{Pikachu}
{IMASPY, Natsu, Hectic}
{72, R1} - null
{DkK}
{Luca}

Will read through more thoroughly and give cases in a few.

@IMASPY, DkK, Pika, Luca, reasons for the Natsu wagon?

[John Marv]

Hammer intent before deadline for sake of not non-lynching if this wagon persists. Expecting Natsu to flip town; if we're lynching off of non-town play, DkK would be a better candidate.

Here are some questions regarding if Natsu D1 lynch goes through;
1) What do you expect his flip to be, what level of confidence?
2) If he flips scum, who's the partner and why?
3) If town, which players are more likely to be scum come D2 off of D1 interactions?

[John Marv]

My reads on DkK and Luca is that they don't feel town aligned with their contributions.

Luca feels to be setting up a D1 mislynch, with purpose of pushing 72 D2. Am expecting today's lynch to be between Natsu and DkK, there'll be time to sort him come D2 (good investigation target).

DkK comes across as active lurking. His reasoning for Natsu vote is also inadequate imo (#652).

[John Marv]

Town reads are from gut/vibe. 72 is null and R1 is mixed (don't townread R1 and was wanting to place them at lean-scum, but Pika seems to townread them. Also there's only 2 scum in this game).

[John Marv]

Don't have a strict town case on Natsu, it's simply 1) feels town off of vibe, and 2)have 2 other suspects (you and DkK).

I can compromise between Natsu/Luca/DkK today, with premise that Natsu clears his slot (or forces me to reread the game) and gives ability to focus my scumreads D2, or go for my current scumreads today.

[John Marv]

There's two points that shows my scumread on Luca. The majority of his contributions are back and forwards with Pikachu. The interactions themselves are NAI and contributes little to the game expect for adding unnecessary clutter and allowing players to active lurk. I understand that Luca has expressed that he may have a less aggressive/laid-back approach to D1, but this amount of intentional active lurking is not what I'd expect from an experienced SE town player.

Here are a few examples of Luca's posts that are non-Pokemon related;

I have a slight SR on dsjstr - tonally he seems ok but he’s just floating through with no real content atm. Need to see more from him.

Koba is almost entirely null atm, but I found this question odd given the post they quoted literally explains why I SR Pikachu, so I’m wondering what the point of the question was?

Why do I get the impression you’re treading on eggshells with your reads?

Yes, I quoted the quotes in a rather biased way. The idea is that the reads he has given out have been limited and highly consists of fence sitting. Again, understandable to a point due to playstyle, but this amount of lack of commitment to reads seems imo outside of town play.

I should probably read other Luca's previous town and scum games for comparison, but I'm too

lazy

busy for that

Here's my interpretation of your reads so far. Do correct where I'm wrong.
{IMASPY, Pikachu}
{DkK, R1, John}
{Hectic, Natsu, 72}

I'll get around to DkK's case later. @Luca, do you feel that my analysis of you is fair or biased, and if the latter, how much? How are you feeling about the current gamestate, regarding likelihood of a town victory?

[John Marv]

pedit VOTE: Luca