Newbie 1988 | Octopus | Over

[Crush]

Hey all, I'll read the thread in a few hours!

[Crush]

Ok I've somewhat caught up, haven't really got the chance to really analyze everything but I guess that will have to wait until D2 or later. So far I actually quite dislike a lot of slots, of which I dislike Cheeky the most. Cheeky, would you say that you are someone that's easy to convince/too agreeable? Because you have voted for a lot of players D1 and to me it feels like you're trying to catch every wave that might hit the shore. Do you really think LL's post was that good to immediately let go of your Titus vote?

The Homura slot had a lot of posts I can't really place in the early pages, a lot of fluff and I also really hate meta arguments especially in a noobie game. Tapio slot had some questionable posts and seems also easily swayed. Karnage is still kinda whatever to me. I do like the #201 but I dislike the fixedness in his reads, still I've seen some town players do this in the games I've played years ago and since I still do like the effort and analysis LL is a town lean for now. To me the Phoenix slot isn't that noteworthy right now, which make the early TR other players have given him (before like pag 10'ish, I will have to look up later who exactly these players were) strange to me. The only minor thing I dislike in this slot is the seriousness he used in approaching my slot. TSE feels meh to me, I didn't particularly like the 'mafioso' thing and I think the constant formation of teams on D1 isn't that relevant, feels like a way to add to your postcount without really contributing. I like Titus the most aside from LL, mainly because of the early interactions regarding the 'gut vote' and the good cop bad cop thing.

So for me now: town leaning LL, Titus. Mafia leaning: Tapio, maybe Homura, maybe TSE but mainly VOTE: Cheeky

[Crush]

Well at least I can understand Crush. You're probably town as newbies tend to scumread me.

Also don't like this, saw someone post something along the lines of 'why would we lynch you (SE) instead of going for noobies, didnt like that either. Its a really easy way to completely kill what someone is saying, it might be true in a sense but it isnt cooperative at all.

Cheeky, would you say that you are someone that's easy to convince/too agreeable? Because you have voted for a lot of players D1 and to me it feels like you're trying to catch every wave that might hit the shore. Do you really think LL's post was that good to immediately let go of your Titus vote?

The voting thing is my way of sorting, I'm predominantly a reaction test player. Im not really a fan of you accusing me of trying to lynch everyone when it's pretty obvious that's not what im doing. I have been accused of both tunnelling and voting too much which is lol.

I feel like you're asking leading questions that are intended to be rhetorical.

Yes the first one is definitely a leading question, and probably not a very informative one. As for the partial answered 2nd question, could you give your thoughts on the reactions your votes have given you? Who do you want to lynch?

[Crush]

Ok I've somewhat caught up, haven't really got the chance to really analyze everything but I guess that will have to wait until D2 or later. So far I actually quite dislike a lot of slots, of which I dislike Cheeky the most. Cheeky, would you say that you are someone that's easy to convince/too agreeable? Because you have voted for a lot of players D1 and to me it feels like you're trying to catch every wave that might hit the shore. Do you really think LL's post was that good to immediately let go of your Titus vote?

The Homura slot had a lot of posts I can't really place in the early pages, a lot of fluff and I also really hate meta arguments especially in a noobie game. Tapio slot had some questionable posts and seems also easily swayed. Karnage is still kinda whatever to me. I do like the #201 but I dislike the fixedness in his reads, still I've seen some town players do this in the games I've played years ago and since I still do like the effort and analysis LL is a town lean for now. To me the Phoenix slot isn't that noteworthy right now, which make the early TR other players have given him (before like pag 10'ish, I will have to look up later who exactly these players were) strange to me. The only minor thing I dislike in this slot is the seriousness he used in approaching my slot. TSE feels meh to me, I didn't particularly like the 'mafioso' thing and I think the constant formation of teams on D1 isn't that relevant, feels like a way to add to your postcount without really contributing. I like Titus the most aside from LL, mainly because of the early interactions regarding the 'gut vote' and the good cop bad cop thing.

So for me now: town leaning LL, Titus. Mafia leaning: Tapio, maybe Homura, maybe TSE but mainly VOTE: Cheeky

How is my making meta arguments scum-indicative? Especially when it was perfectly applicable in the context I presented it in?

I don't mafia lean your slot because of meta arguments, I just don't like meta arguments. Especially not in a newbie game because I, and probably more people, have never played with players in said meta read. I can't evaluate meta based arguments because I have no indication of their meta, so for me meta arguments contribute null to the game. The main reason I lean mafia on your slot are the posts made by LunarRest regarding the Titus vote switch after RVS, it seemed like she was reaching for the sky. I dislike the entire theatre around that vote switch.

Don't like this entrance in general. Half of your reads are nullreads and you're sheeping the main wagon. Your reluctance to take stances on your reads is off.

Do you think Phoenix's approach to your slot is scum-indicative?

I actually think in some cases it might be. I could see a world in which mafia wants to present themselves as tryhard solvers by engaging with the town's clown (with all due respect QQ). But yeah it's definitely not the strongest of reasons, I think it's stranger that Phoenix got a few early TRs but I don't know to what conclusions that would lead.

Also don't like this, saw someone post something along the lines of 'why would we lynch you (SE) instead of going for noobies, didnt like that either. Its a really easy way to completely kill what someone is saying, it might be true in a sense but it isnt cooperative at all.

How am I not cooperating? It's an actual thing that people who don't know me vote and me early are greater than rand town. I actually differentiated between two newbies in a recent newbie game I stomped because of their approaches to me. I liked you going for me at first but now it just feels like you're attempting to steam roll me based on the suspicion already surrounding my slot.

These particular posts do nothing for me. I'm not trying to steam roll you or anything, but my opinion on you won't change due to these kind of comments since I have no way to validate them. It's not like these posts make you more likely mafia in my eyes, same goes for the meta based arguments.

[Crush]

Also about the first part of #291 , I don't think most of my reads are null since I do lean (if only slightly) on most players. If you would interpret that as me null reading everyone that's fine, but don't expect me to develop all in reads D1 like LL does. I would also like to remind you that my vote on Cheeky made that wagon the leading one, I could also have voted for the equally big TSE and LL wagons.

[Crush]

I think the rest of my reads are pretty self-explanatory.

What's your read of me, Cheeky?

I’m liking Titus enthusiasm this game.
LL had a Townie entrance
Phoenix is contributioning quite a bit. In a more Townie way then scummy.
Tap’s interaction with me felt Genuine Town.

Same question for you.

Is this valuable information? Why?

I would like to hear it as well. Also, has your read on TSE changed, regardless if you think Phoenix is a better lynch?

[Crush]

I don't mafia lean your slot because of meta arguments, I just don't like meta arguments. Especially not in a newbie game because I, and probably more people, have never played with players in said meta read. I can't evaluate meta based arguments because I have no indication of their meta, so for me meta arguments contribute null to the game. The main reason I lean mafia on your slot are the posts made by LunarRest regarding the Titus vote switch after RVS, it seemed like she was reaching for the sky. I dislike the entire theatre around that vote switch.

Run that through me again. I wasn't present during LunarRest interactions. Have you mistaken me for their slot?

Yep that´s my bad, sorry. Messed up my notes somehow you´re off the list.

Also about the first part of #291 , I don't think most of my reads are null since I do lean (if only slightly) on most players. If you would interpret that as me null reading everyone that's fine, but don't expect me to develop all in reads D1 like LL does. I would also like to remind you that my vote on Cheeky made that wagon the leading one, I could also have voted for the equally big TSE and LL wagons.

Spoiler:

Karnage is still kinda whatever to me

TSE feels meh to me

To me the Phoenix slot isn't that noteworthy right now

Saw these as nullreads. You did elaborate on some of them, but I find it strange that you scumlean me over them from your explanations. Especially considering it amounted to "I don't like meta arguments" and something I wasn't even present for.

WRT the leading wagons — pressure was on Cheeky from Titus when you repped in, so I saw that as a sheep. My vote had also been a dead vote, so the Luciano wagon isn't applicable. Can you elaborate which direction your leans are on for the reads I quoted?

At the time: Karnage null, TSE mafia, phoenix null.

[Crush]

@Phoenix can you explain again why you prefer to abstain from EOD wagons again? I didn´t really get that part.

Also are Karnage and Cheeky replacing out? Dont remember them posting very much if at all for the last days.

@Non Imh, can you be a bit more elaborate about what you noticed this game so far?

[Crush]

@Phoenix can you explain again why you prefer to abstain from EOD wagons again? I didn´t really get that part.

Also are Karnage and Cheeky replacing out? Dont remember them posting very much if at all for the last days.

@Non Imh, can you be a bit more elaborate about what you noticed this game so far?

Non doesn’t post that much content.
It’s his meta.

I hope his mean meta is more than a 1 word analysis of a 17 page game, otherwise its going to be fun evaluating him.

[Crush]

"can you explain again why you prefer to abstain from EOD wagons again? I didn´t really get that part."

Quote the post you are referring to, please.

It's 60 and 63.

It'd vote with phoenix now, but I'm not voting LL today. Intent to hammer Karnage.

[Crush]

Sorry I messed up the post links, it was meant to be 60 and 63 of your ISO, I'm bad at navigating this site give me a sec.

[Crush]

366 & 372 are the posts I meant @phoenix.

[Crush]

I'm fine with some more time @Plot

[Crush]

OK, so I have also not been very active the past day, neither have my SRs really. Have to say that at first glance I do like Cheeky´s replacement a lot more since we share a lot of thoughts about the early game. This game will probably be more interesting when I have some more data to play with.

[Crush]

Back then it would've been

{LL}
{Titus}
{Phoenix, Karnage} = 0
{Homura, Tapio, TSE}
{Cheeky}

Right now it would be more like:

{Phoenix}
{LL, Titus}
{Karnage, Homura}
{Wooper, TSE}
{Non lmh}

Phoenix up due to claim, LL down because he didnt really had noteworthy contributions after his strong early D1 (and I wanted equal tier), Homura up because I attributed some wrong posts to him, Wooper up because of similarity early reads, Non lmh down because lack of convincing posts after replacing in.

[Crush]

@Wooper Because my D1 reads are fickle anyway. If we are in alignment on a pretty good amount of early reads it's more likely that I'm wrong about you than about the others.

As town shows no momemtum to lynch your spot anyway

VOTE: Non lmh

Would hammer karnage but I probably won't be around on deadline, 2 players have already said to hammer so I'd rather rest my vote here.

[Crush]

@LL, to me you seem like an analytical player (based on your D1), what do you make of the D1 votes? Everyone else can chime in as well. I have some thoughts on my own, but I'm interested in what you guys think before I share them.

[Crush]

My curious thing is why the votes switched to Karnage and not LL if the bulk of the votes were because of Phoenix v LL bogging up the thread?

I mean, you and TSE were the ones who directed the switch to Karnage, so you should have had a pretty good reason for that, right?

Also, happy birthday!

[Crush]

I think it's either Tapi/Non + Titus or TSE/CJN + Cheeky/Wooper.

Yeah, I like this. I concluded solely based on the D1 votes that the CJN + Wooper is the most likely. It's actually so obvious that I don't believe it can be true, constantly voting opposites + TSE moving off Cheeky when the wagon reaches L1, it's too obvious, but I still like that you came to the same conclusion as I did.

[Crush]

@crush @ceejay interested in joining me on wooper?

Need to reread Wooper ISO with your comments in mind before I do that, because right now I don't think Wooper is the place to go.

[Crush]

UNVOTE: Titus. I'm not convinced at all that Titus is town, but I am more inclined to lynch Mena this DP based upon Non's play last DP, especially 553 and the hammer despite immediately claiming Karnage was town upon entering the game. If scum!Titus, then scum!Mena. scum!Mena does not necessarily lead to scum!Titus, however. I'm going to wait for everyone to get their thoughts out now that they are here before dropping a vote on Mena, however.

In addition, I've dropped my obvtown read on Crush, due to reasons that have nothing to do with him.

I don't feel like I did anything to deserve that in the first place, so I don't mind.

[Crush]

ELI5 why TSE is suddenly (almost) universally town read?

[Crush]

LuckyLuciano
ceejayvinoya

Homura
Crush
Titus (SE)
Wooper

Menalque

Colored reads are what I feel certain of right now.

Irregardless of your reads, from my POV, would there always be a red between Menal and Wooper?

[Crush]

ELI5 why TSE is suddenly (almost) universally town read?

i'm on the move a little atm but if u look at my posting earlier this phase i talked thru reaching net town on him

cjv's pop-ins here have been like
low key solvey
in a way that looks like town!cjv

i'm not like **hard town** on the slot, but think balance of probabilities he's more likely town than scum.

if u wanna argue with my logic it is there, earlier this phase, to be argued with!

The posts make it seem like TSE is town, not necessarily CJ. So I imagine that with new information somehow TSE D1 is now getting town read, that's what I'm interested in if that's the case.

[Crush]

Is QQ a regular player on this site? Because he was an obvious troll this game, I even scum read Phoenix for arguing with him.

[Crush]

The posts make it seem like TSE is town, not necessarily CJ. So I imagine that with new information somehow TSE D1 is now getting town read, that's what I'm interested in if that's the case.

oh ya I guess I'm keen to sew other ppl talk about their tse/cjv reads more n stuff

do you disagree with town!cjv?

No I think p25 and p26 CJV is pretty towny, but when I factor TSE in the slot is still net. red for me. That's why I'm interested in hearing why TSE = green.

[Crush]

@Crush, does scum!TSE unvote Cheeky at L-1 for any reason other than Cheeky also being scum? In other words, do you think scum!TSE always = scum!Cheeky, or is scum!TSE possible with town!Cheeky?

TSE might've felt that the Cheeky wagon would be a success regardless because we were close to deadline, which might have been a better look if there was already red off the wagon. I would like to flip the last statement and state that, as I see the game now,

Wooper

>

TSE

but not necessarily the other way around. But that's also why I said that this team might be to obvious and it emphasizes the importance of sorting TSE green this day.

[Crush]

@Crush, are you entirely caught up?

I've read everything once.

[Crush]

Outside of your desire to sort TSE/CJN, what do you believe should be sorted this DP?

Sorting either Menal or me probably yields most information to average town, personally sorting Titus would be OK since I feel I might lean to much on my D1 town read of Titus.

[Crush]

@Menalque, convince me LL is red.

@Everyone, still waiting to hear why TSE is green.

@Homura, would you lynch everyone outside of your town pool?

[Crush]

Sunday might be fine if that works for everyone?

[Crush]

@Menal, problem is I don't see Wooper + Titus and chance on homura + wooper I think is also on the lower side. Big problem for me this game is that I have no meta to go off on, so I'm kind of evaluating all of you on face value and votes, especially the last part is just looking too good for Wooper, unless LL is really red.

Now Homura finally started to give off some towny vibes to me, so I do like that.

[Crush]

LL is making points that feel very valid to me, the only red thing about LL is that he feels too sure about his reads and I don't think I can lynch him, just on that.

[Crush]

@homura @cjv @wooper , how likely do you think titus + LL is?

[Crush]

VOTE: Menalque

This is L-1

[Crush]

I think if Menalque v LL is TvT we won't win this game btw, but we'll see.

[Crush]

I can't go into detail right now, but with the solutions that are presented and are realistic in my eyes are LL + Wooper or Menal + Titus. I'm not looking at Titus + Wooper, that just doesn't make any sense and I don't understand why you would ever opt that. I've been trying to get people to talk about 'obvious town' TSE but no one is actually responding to that, so be it, guess CJ is out of the picture today. Homura has been very 0 for me during D1 but yesterday this slots questioning felt pretty towny. Anyway I don't think Wooper is ever the lynch here, CJ is left alone. Honestly rn I'm just thinking about LL + Wooper and Menal + Titus, and since this 1v1 has developed it has become almost inevitable that we lynch either one of them. If we don't do it, the same thing will continue D3 if we don't hit red and that wouldn't get us any further. The reason I'm voting Menal over LL is because I think didn't like both of your predecessors, I don't think your solutions are likely and I've generally liked LL since D1.

I might go into more detail later as to why I like LL over Menal, but unless LL is willing to reconsider Menal D3 I just think this is the best option.

[Crush]

Ah I might just be stupid, never mind.

[Crush]

I'm actually kind of thinking crush + wooper rn

Really me + wooper? Friendly reminder that de D1 Cheeky lynch only didn't happen because TSE moved last minute, you think I, as an inexperienced mafia player, would de ok lynching my mafia partner D1? Literally anyone + me and I would've been ok with you suggesting me as mafia, but you pick the most unlikely combination just because you want to lynch Wooper and somehow want to fit me in there.

[Crush]

I'm actually kind of thinking crush + wooper rn

Really me + wooper? Friendly reminder that de D1 Cheeky lynch only didn't happen because TSE moved last minute, you think I, as an inexperienced mafia player, would de ok lynching my mafia partner D1? Literally anyone + me and I would've been ok with you suggesting me as mafia, but you pick the most unlikely combination just because you want to lynch Wooper and somehow want to fit me in there.

how do you figure that? looking back in plot's ISO the wagon went directly from phoenix top wagon -> Karnage top wagon

why does that show you "being okay with lynching your partner"?

also, can you please explain your LL townread?

There was another L1 on Cheeky before the Phoenix vote that was also close to deadline. I will explain to you why I think LL is town but it will take a bit more time since I stopped taking notes somewhere close to deadline D1 because everyone kept replacing out and I started calling people out for things other slots did.

[Crush]

can you just explain to me now in plain English what you think has been towny about LL

doesn't have to be super in depth, I wanna see where your head is at

I tried to do that before but I'm not great at expressing myself in English. I just think the points he's making are valid, albeit sometimes a bit nitpicky, but other than that I get the feeling he's actually trying to solve the game. Example of the first part is that in #631 he's actually proposing what I was thinking coming out of D1, while you are proposing solutions I can not work with. Being honest, even when I understand that saying this looks bad for me, I have no one locked town rn until someone flips red. And I just think that the chances of you being red are higher. But I really gtg now will come back to you later.

[Crush]

Sorry for my absence guys, the corona business got the better of me, I can play on from now on but I might sub out for D3 if I can't get my work delegated

Reading friday and onwards now.

[Crush]

Ah, see I didn't miss that much, guess it's up to Homura, honestly idk about this one but I would be surprised if there isn't one red between Menal and Wooper at this point.

[Crush]

Well played Homura

[Crush]

VOTE: LL

[Crush]

Well played Homura

And Menal for convincing Homura, of course.

[Crush]

huh shit, so ceejay not cone!town then

My non-expertise on TPR read is that Titus of course knew the setup after D1 and she followed CJ, I guess that doesn't have to mean too much because MPR doesn't have to move (?) but that should at least give CJ enough cred to live D3.

homura gets a lot of cred for hammering wooper there I think

Yeah you 100% lynch between me and LL today.

[Crush]

wonderful, the two slots we're choosing between to be lynched today aren't here

I'm here, I just struggle to provide content since I've TR'ed LL for the entire game so I can't genuinely case for him being mafia, other than his obvious alignment with Wooper D2.

[Crush]

Luciano, I think. I don’t think Wooper could have pushed for the idea of ceejay being FN on his own.

In my defense, I genuinely didn't know what you all were hinting at D2, I was the only one that had CJ in his lynchpool.

[Crush]

But then it means they were blatantly partnering and I don’t know if it’s a play they would’ve taken under the heat they were under D2.

LL never TR'ed Wooper explicitely, his MR on Menal was too strong to consider lynching someone else, if taken by face value. They all-inned on lynching Menal D2, in case it worked LL could've quoted himself saying it was CJ + Wooper all along, Wooper would've been the most obvious lynch based on D2 and then LL would've had town cred going into D4.

[Crush]

This only works when CJ isn't actually FN, which they already suspected since they NK'ed Titus instead of CJ.

[Crush]

Well I've been pretty much wrong about everything this game. Is there a chance any scum is outside of Crush + Myself is scum? If not we win by lynching between us in any order.

EBWOP

It isn't me, so if you're saying any order is fine I prefer lynching you today, in case it's actually not you.

[Crush]

Well I've been pretty much wrong about everything this game. Is there a chance any scum is outside of Crush + Myself is scum? If not we win by lynching between us in any order.

EBWOP

Why not try working this out yourself?

^ so what do you think LL?

[Crush]

@LL, if you're town you should always be working things out right? I was wrong D2 as well, but I still want to win this game.

@CJV, who do you think is more likely to be mafia out of Menal and Homura?

[Crush]

Homura

Is hammering your partner in this gamestate the more valuable play over guaranteeing lylo?

Welcome HappyOrange!

[Crush]

Also @LL, @Homura, @CJ, @HappyOrange , reminder that there's only approximately 1 day left. If you have doubts about me don't hesitate to AMA.

[Crush]

@LL, if you're town you should always be working things out right? I was wrong D2 as well, but I still want to win this game.

@CJV, who do you think is more likely to be mafia out of Menal and Homura?

What was your motivation behind asking this? Menalque is pretty much never scum here after the flip.

Are you saying you think Menalque could be scum?

Mainly to keep the game going, since CJ was the only player posting. Personally I think the chances of Menal being mafia are almost equal to 0, but it doesn't hurt to know other player's perspectives. I'm definitely more interested in the follow-up question tho.

[Crush]

Do you agree that Titus most likely tracked ceejay N1?

yes, otherwise the sudden TR wouldn't make sense. It also explains why no one explained their TR on ceejay D2.

[Crush]

Anything you want to ask me while we’re both here, Crush?

Not really, right now. Good luck with your classes!

I'll be working on my own classes for a few hours, I'll check in later tonight and before deadline!

[Crush]

@CJV, who do you think is more likely to be mafia out of Menal and Homura?

I really dislike this post. Crush's vote is on me. There's only 1 mafia left. Homura and CJV have already stated that they are probably going to vote me today. It feels like Crush is putting the cart before the horse and looking forward to how he can best setup the gamestate for LYLO.

Again: I was trying to move the game forward, no one was saying anything except for CJ. Also it is still a relevant question because I do think there's a possibility of you flipping town and someone else being mafia. If I don't ask questions like these the entire day is going to end up like D2, and honestly it was tiring to read. Because I town read you all through D1 and D2 I do think there's a possibility of you being town, you should only dislike this question if you're 100% certain that I'm mafia.

I'm fine with that but if you end up lynching me, you'll be glad I got at least some info out of players D3 that you can use in lylo.

[Crush]

Doubled-up on my statements ^ whoops

[Crush]

I'm not sure whether Phoenix used his role to protect someone, to to try and block mafia. I'm not sure if it's worth trying to figure out, but I think if we mislynch today, it's worth reevaluating CJN at LYLO.

Question, however, it say Jailkeeper prevents a player from using 'their' role, and the mafia nightkill is factional, even though it's carried out by a player. Can the jailkeeper stop the nightkill by jailing the player who carries out the nightkill, or no? If the answer is yes, then CJN should probably be treated as locktown as mafia would use their roleblock on the jailkeeper in addition to the night kill. If the answer is no, then it makes sense strategically for the mafia to waive their roleblock. I'm asking Ploti about this in my role pm too, but if anyone knows the answer and can provide it sooner that would be great.

Good one, but you forget that mafia have almost perfect information after D1. They know that town has a tracker and that it would be risky for roleblocker to move.

[Crush]

I'm not sure whether Phoenix used his role to protect someone, to to try and block mafia. I'm not sure if it's worth trying to figure out, but I think if we mislynch today, it's worth reevaluating CJN at LYLO.

Question, however, it say Jailkeeper prevents a player from using 'their' role, and the mafia nightkill is factional, even though it's carried out by a player. Can the jailkeeper stop the nightkill by jailing the player who carries out the nightkill, or no? If the answer is yes, then CJN should probably be treated as locktown as mafia would use their roleblock on the jailkeeper in addition to the night kill. If the answer is no,

then it makes sense strategically for the mafia to waive their roleblock.

I'm asking Ploti about this in my role pm too, but if anyone knows the answer and can provide it sooner that would be great.

Good one, but you forget that mafia have almost perfect information after D1. They know that town has a tracker and that it would be risky for roleblocker to move.

That's the entire point of the bolded part of my post. Anyway, it doesn't really matter because Ploti answered me and the jailkeeper will block the nightkill if used on the person carrying it out. That means that CJN is pretty much locktown, because it makes more sense for the mafia to both roleblock and night kill Phoenix. Not doing so risks the nightkill being blocked, and one player has to move anyway to carry out the kill, so why not have that same person also roleblock?

Because if the roleblocker moves, mafia loses the roleblocker if he's being tracked instead of goon. TSE moved off Titus' lynch target at L1, they might have suspected that moving off a popular lynch target at L1 could attract tracker and therefore chose to send goon.

[Crush]

Because if the roleblocker moves, mafia loses the roleblocker if he's being tracked instead of goon. TSE moved off Titus' lynch target at L1, they might have suspected that moving off a popular lynch target at L1 could attract tracker and therefore chose to send goon.

This is ridiculous reaching and you know it.

Probably yeah. Also

Homura

Is hammering your partner in this gamestate the more valuable play over guaranteeing lylo?

Welcome HappyOrange!

[Crush]

Do we have outed night actions that I'm not aware of? I don't understand the argument LL is making about CJN being locktown. (I assume locktown is another way of saying they are clear?) There were two wolves who could have made the kill night 1, someone being jailkept makes them less likely to be scum from a mechanical standpoint but it doesn't clear them. But the argument is moot unless Titus tracked Phoenix night 1 and saw them visit someone, because we have no other way to confirm who Phoenix targeted with their night action.

[Crush]

Do we have outed night actions that I'm not aware of? I don't understand the argument LL is making about CJN being locktown. (I assume locktown is another way of saying they are clear?) There were two wolves who could have made the kill night 1, someone being jailkept makes them less likely to be scum from a mechanical standpoint but it doesn't clear them. But the argument is moot unless Titus tracked Phoenix night 1 and saw them visit someone, because we have no other way to confirm who Phoenix targeted with their night action.

Assumption = that because Titus suddenly locked TSE town she tracked TSE (=CJ) N1.

[Crush]

@Orange, 797.

Yeah this one makes it pretty clear.

[Crush]

VOTE: Crush. I don't really see any reason to lynch anyone else today. The most notable parts of his iso sticking out to me are 276 + 277, and 861 + his posts today that feel like he's planning future mislynches ahead of time.

Actually the more I think about it the less I understand why I need to be the lynch, unless you really think I would just kill off my partner D1. It was also good rereading those posts of mine, I still like the reasoning behind it; except that I TR'ed you so much that I thought

Wooper

would automatically lead to

CJV

.

[Crush]

Crush, how do you feel about Homura?

Uhh I don't have specifics, basically didn't really read her at first, then I started liking her more D2. I don't know if it would've been a useless LYLO from Homura's perspective but I can see the value in her hammering her partner. But that would also mean that no mafia voted on Karnage D1, which is the reason why I didn't associate Wooper with Homura D2.

[Crush]

276
290-293.

[Crush]

276
290-293.

tbh I don't dislike those posts in general from Homura, but it does remind me a little of the good-cop bad-cop reasoning D1.

[Crush]

I don't think an all-town lynching of Karnage is that unlikely considering how it was a flash-lynch with a hard deadline after Phoenix claimed TPR. It was always going to be Karnage under those circumstances if Phoenix is TPR, the VCA of his final wagon really just boils down to, who was online?

That's a fair point.

[Crush]

Btw I love people calling me a newb for correctly mafia reading them D1, thanks @Cheeky if you're reading this.

[Crush]

Kinda leaning towards voting LL here. I've been going through his posts on their own and finding it pretty hard to ignore the amount of wolfsiding he's done all game.

What do you think of Homura?

[Crush]

Crush, talk to me about your LL read? It looks like you had them as strongly town early day 1, then ran into some confusion over your notes where you didn't realize LL had replaced LunarRest. You don't seem to have really taken that realization into account with your LL read? No problem if this was too long ago for you to really remember. Today you voted LL, but said you don't think you can case them because you have been reading them as village for most of the game. I'm confused about what you mean here. If you don't have reasoning for LL being a wolf then what prompted your vote?

The Lunar read wasn't THAT strong to sway my read on LL. In my opinion LL made a lot of good points during the entire game, he might just be good at fishing for things but to me he has been really convincing. And now he has kinda talked me out of reading Homura town, and I think again with pretty good reasoning. The reason I voted for LL even though I've read him town the entire game is because Menal was basically locked town and I felt like he was going to put us up to a 1v1 regardless. And honestly, he has been so wrong in his pushes this game that I might just have a terrible read on him.

[Crush]

Who's scum, @crush?

I honestly don't know, LL talked me out of straight town reading Homura but I don't see too strong of a connection between Homura and the Wooper slots either.

[Crush]

@happyorange, I honestly thought Wooper was townier than Cheeky, but I really would've lynched Cheeky D1 if TSE hadn't moved. After D1 the 1v1 between Wooper and Menal took place and based on the EOD wagon and Cheeky's wagon I reasoned that the probability of Menal being mafia was higher because he had more possible partners. And honestly I was never really convinced by Menal's posts and the more we got into D2 both players just started to annoy me and it didn't really make me want to evaluate the game.

[Crush]

LL's reasoning on Hamura isn't good, all they said was that she is a wolf because she asked someone whether or not it was town for non to lolhammer despite being okay with the lynch. That barely passes as a read, not seeing what you're finding convincing about that at all. LL didn't even mention Hamura hammering a wolf over a villager when her reads gave her plenty of room to lynch the villager and when it would have put their team in lylo with a very solid chance of winning, or how any of that lines up with Homura being a wolf.

His reasoning to talk me out of TR Homura does make sense tho, I also told CJ I don't see a strong connection between Wooper(slots) and Homura.

[Crush]

I mean if Homura slides in now and lynches you without saying anything it's kind of obvious anyway

[Crush]

Meh because Homura isn't here it's really hard for me to evaluate

[Crush]

Yeah I'll be around a bit longer, will definitely lynch today.

[Crush]

@Orange, it would help me a lot if you could come around even just a little bit on my slot today. I think that I might have placed too much emphasis on votes D1, but you are completely ignoring them. The only one I voted on is confirmed mafia, and I'm aligned with Wooper on the other two votes. How likely is it that the only L1 vote of any of the two mafia is on his partner?

UNVOTE:

[Crush]

@LL, yes I did read back but the site has been terribly slow. I didn't really find anything that stood out to me, the only thing is that there's definitely an argument to be made that Wooper talked Homura into hammering because Homura's game-long TR switched to her hammering Wooper.

But then it means they were blatantly partnering and I don’t know if it’s a play they would’ve taken under the heat they were under D2.

LL never TR'ed Wooper explicitely, his MR on Menal was too strong to consider lynching someone else, if taken by face value. They all-inned on lynching Menal D2, in case it worked LL could've quoted himself saying it was CJ + Wooper all along, Wooper would've been the most obvious lynch based on D2 and then LL would've had town cred going into D4.

is still on my mind tho and I feel like I should just go with my initial gut reaction that you're more likely to be mafia aligned than Homura is, there's a truth to what Orange and Homura said in that the results of your pushes have just been really bad this game and I think at some point I should just conclude that other players (Menal, Orange) have a better read on you than I do.

VOTE: LL

[Crush]

@LL, yes I did read back but the site has been terribly slow. I didn't really find anything that stood out to me, the only thing is that there's definitely an argument to be made that Wooper talked Homura into hammering because Homura's game-long TR switched to her hammering Wooper.

But then it means they were blatantly partnering and I don’t know if it’s a play they would’ve taken under the heat they were under D2.

LL never TR'ed Wooper explicitely, his MR on Menal was too strong to consider lynching someone else, if taken by face value. They all-inned on lynching Menal D2, in case it worked LL could've quoted himself saying it was CJ + Wooper all along, Wooper would've been the most obvious lynch based on D2 and then LL would've had town cred going into D4.

is still on my mind tho and I feel like I should just go with my initial gut reaction that you're more likely to be mafia aligned than Homura is, there's a truth to what Orange and Homura said in that the results of your pushes have just been really bad this game and I think at some point I should just conclude that other players (Menal, Orange) have a better read on you than I do.

VOTE: LL L1

[Crush]

Also, I did explicitly townread Cheeky, not sure if that makes a difference for you.

pedit: That plot twist.

In this case I don't think so.

At least the server problems made for an spectacular end.

[Crush]

I feel really bad for mafia if I'm right about Homura. Without the server lagging he hammered me 100% and got to LYLO.

Well played LL!

[Crush]

Sorry, Wooper. You're a really good partner and coach, I'm just a hopeless case.

Honestly you played well, if you had more time and less misfortune you would've had a good chance to win the game.

[Crush]

I feel really bad for mafia if I'm right about Homura. Without the server lagging he hammered me 100% and got to LYLO.

Well played LL!

Hard disagree.

You did convince town to look outside the 1v1 D3, without your input we would've 100% lynched between you and me. Can't be right about everything all the time.

[Crush]

Posts 79, 118 and 135

Found them both, lol @ my performance on this /

well played on the win for town thx crush

wp man perfect setup