Newbie 1988 | Octopus | Over

[Menalque]

Hello friends

[Menalque]

Imma be honest with you my lil woopie, that post does not give me good vibes

[Menalque]

Also I have crush and ceejay as town which means 2 scums in (wooper, Titus, luciano, homura)

[Menalque]

My ego guess from page 2 is wooper and luciano but we’ll see

[Menalque]

Why was karnage lynched?

[Menalque]

I mean you’re gonna have to be a little patient with me as I may be driving back to the Uk from France today but it’s my intention to obvtown myself quite soon

[Menalque]

I don’t understand what makes this a trashbag slot tho, seeing as non plays like this in every game and it shouldn’t be AI

What is scummy specifically about my slot’s play so far?

Also comment on tapi bc I thought they were towny over the first couple of pages I’ve read

[Menalque]

I should mention that you’re probably my top pick for scum based on cheeky btw wooper, so I’m also expecting to see a lot of townposting in your ISO when I get to there

[Menalque]

I should mention that you’re probably my top pick for scum based on cheeky btw wooper, so I’m also expecting to see a lot of townposting in your ISO when I get to there

Let me know when you get there. I've got the feeling someone has agency captured me as I don't think tap/crush is the scumteam.

Why do you think crush is scummy in the first place? I think their predecessor was obvtown

[Menalque]

VOTE: wooper

[Menalque]

I think cheeky is intensely scummy as of page 6

[Menalque]

I think cheeky is intensely scummy as of page 6

What in particular is scummy to you?

She feels very directionless and uncomfortable. There’s also the sense that she cares a lot about how she’s perceived here and is being a lot more measured. When I’ve seen her as town she’s been much more abrasive and demanding, and this is very clearly different to that. Neither is totally condemning on its own, but I think the two together are

bad

Whats your take on that slot?

[Menalque]

Also why do you think Titus is scummy?

[Menalque]

I also think cheeky is better than genuinely believing that QQ being a memelord is scum!indicative

[Menalque]

But I don’t think scum!cheeky is necessarily better than perceiving that as something that could be pushed — especially through the lens of a police lynch — and using that to look like she was doing something

[Menalque]

No, actually. Mafia I think struggle to have direction especially in the very early game because they have the pieces to the puzzle already and so are trying to create the illusion of looking for more information. Town ask questions that are designed to give them more information and to sort. Scum ask questions about irrelevant things or questions they think they should ask. I think cheeky’s questions aren’t on things she would necessarily care about as town and they’re asked in a way that makes me think she is trying to avoid undue attention/to play nice. Generally scum are much more motivated to do that

I’m only about 250 posts I but so far I don’t see what you’re talking about re:Titus, but could be because I’m not there yet. So you think karnage had the scumteam nailed and they combined pushed him to eliminate him? Why not NK him in that circumstance?

[Menalque]

OH I JUST FIGURED OUT WHO ONE OF KARNAGE’S ALTS IS

[Menalque]

Fucking finally that’s been bugging me for months

[Menalque]

Homura feels sort of scummy but I think I always think homura feels kind of scummy

[Menalque]

Politeness!bias

[Menalque]

I think karnage was fairly obviously town but then I think Titus was too, although her pushing there does give me some pause

I don’t really know what scum!titus is capable of because I know there was some RL stuff going on both times I’ve gone against her but I wold certainly lean town there

@wooper when you get here can you tell me what you thought of what I’m presuming is going to be a shitfest between Titus and karnage?

[Menalque]

Re-read last night and digested a bit.

Think LL is hard-tunneling town. TSE is town. Cheeky is town. Titus is maybe town, but nebulous. QQ/Crush might be town, but I want to see content I can actually parse.

Earlier Phoenix townlean might be wrong. Lynchpool of {Karnage, Tapioca!slot, Phoenix}. Low confidence on most reads.

I think this is somewhat scummy but I don’t wanna rule out homura just having her reads entirely back to front

[Menalque]

I don’t mean that in a mean way @homura, sorry if it came across like that

Just there are some people where I would say them scumreading all town is strongly scum!indicative whereas for you I’m not sure it is or not

[Menalque]

Titus do you still TR LL?

[Menalque]

Insofar as you’re able to I’d like you to comment on what I’m producing here in real time LL

[Menalque]

@crush @ceejay interested in joining me on wooper?

[Menalque]

Okay, I quite like homura on pg12 even if I don’t really like her content

[Menalque]

Insofar as you’re able to I’d like you to comment on what I’m producing here in real time LL

I can. I'm not sure what you currently want me to respond to, however.

Mostly just your general thoughts on what I’m saying/on my catch-up

You’re probably my top pick for partner if wooper is scum and so I want to try and get that read by seeing you post in response to me in real time

[Menalque]

What do you think of homura?

In fact can you give me a full readslist?

[Menalque]

Do you agree that crush and ceejay are both obvtown slots?

[Menalque]

That seems like you’re dealing quite heavily in associatives with slots that haven’t flipped yet. Do you think that’s a reliable way to scumhunt?

How would titus!wcum + me!scum mislynching wooper!town today be likely to lead to your mislynch tomorrow?

If your reads have been uncommonly accurate (which at least re: Phoenix they don’t seem to have been) why wouldn’t scum kill you > Phoenix and then leverage that into mislynching you today?

[Menalque]

Also, what do you mean by “pocketing me as the final mislynch target”

[Menalque]

Afaict the only one talking about lynching you rn is me and yesterday it was mostly Phoenix?

[Menalque]

I'm also not reading Phoenix v LL or voting either one today.

Why did you not wanna read this titus?

[Menalque]

My associative reads came DP2. DP1 I lead wagons on two players who I thought were either bad!town or !scum, because I don't wagon players who produce quality content on DP1 unless they straight scum-slip. Plus, phoenix claimed PR. I think town!Wooper is the player most in-sync with me atm

, and the mafia knows I know who dies this NP, and why they die this NP

. Looking at the players who will remain next DP, I'm their best mislynch target for the game-winning push. I think Titus' play interactions with me are setting her up to go from townreading me to saying later on that she thought my play was TBTBAW but was wrong.

What?

Why do you think you’re the best mislynch target?

[Menalque]

Also you make that sound like you’re sure that the next day will be lylo but rn the top wagon is one of your scum reads, so I don’t follow you there?

[Menalque]

There’s Def scum within (Karnage, Titus and Phe0nix)

Guess titus is prob town then

[Menalque]

What do you mean by FTTW?

[Menalque]

I don’t know what you mean when you keep saying “the obvious NK target”

[Menalque]

If wooper is lynched today and flips town, which I doubt but possible, then surely you being lynched D3 is much less likely than you managing to get one of me/titus lynched given that I at the very least would have just hard pushed a mislynch

So I don’t really think your paranoia about being setup as the game losing mislynch makes sense, esp given that, again, you don’t seem to be in any real danger of being mislynched and certainly not before my rep in

[Menalque]

What do you mean by FTTW?

First to the wagon.

What does this mean

[Menalque]

Are you from Town of Salem by any chance?

[Menalque]

TSE is now a full blown scumread.

You don’t think town!tse is capable of making the aggressively bad “let’s lynch in Phoenix/LL to stop them fighting” push?

[Menalque]

Never had tapioca before. Is it any good?

VOTE: Phi

Gut.

Strong enough gut ping for you to move off the rvs wagon prior to reaction from Tapi. Hmm.

I can see a newbie mafia trying to cover up another mafia that way. But a SE player likely wouldn't be doing that, right?

I am a big fan of this entrance.

He's come in with the "two votes on me" thing without feeling necessarily obliged to act on it or do anything to alter the situation & this as an analytical post feels sincere and doesn't feel overstated.

Often newbie scum feel a pang of anxiety at being lolwagoned at the start of their first game. Often experienced scum playing in a new environment feel compelled to flex and show their stuff and overdisplay their {analytical, manipulative} prowess

This guy is posting pretty fast and doesn't seem all that phased

It's pretty subconscious but I think it's a reasonable confidence anti-survivalism tell

I n t e r e s t i n g

[Menalque]

I

think

homura is town but it’s still solidly uncertain. She has equity with LL at the least

[Menalque]

Yoinks, btw

[Menalque]

I really really think it’s exactly (wooper, LL)

[Menalque]

I’d very much like for us to lynch wooper today as he’s probably the more dangerous of the two

[Menalque]

This is as of P21 ftr

[Menalque]

Scum equity is just a site term for how likely someone is to be scum, when used in the form of “X has scum equity with Y” it’s just saying that I can see their play coming from partners

[Menalque]

analyzing

i think i just want this slot dead

Oh the irony

[Menalque]

@titus vote the duck?

[Menalque]

non why did you hammer your townread before deadline while i was still catching up?

Does town!Non lolhammer like that?

This is part of my dilemma tbh. I could see non lolhammering as either alignment and he has a meta of kinda just whimsically lolhammering or doing sweet fa

I think his pred was scummy. The lolhammer comes from non as either alignment but given he had an actual read trajectory i'm pretty sure town!non can give us a convincing update of what his actual thoughts are.

Sorry if you were looking for a more decisive answer, ive played exactly one game with non and frankly getting his alignment right required mighty strong forceps

What was scummy about me #1

[Menalque]

homura is one of my strongest townreads

Talk me through this

[Menalque]

Man ducky if I’m right and you are scum you must be pissed that I repped into this slot hey

[Menalque]

Man ducky if I’m right and you are scum you must be pissed that I repped into this slot hey

If I were scum, yeah I would be. I hate replacements and if you were familiar with my play offsite then you would know that if you were right, and if I was finally scumread by a rep in a game with 100% turnover before beginning of DP2, then I would have quit by now. My analysis of Titus should show you that I take the game seriously and make long-term plans as mafia, which are turned on their head instantaneously by replacements. The fact that I still care about this game would be a townread if you knew me, but meh, new site new meta.

I was actually talking to wooper there — on his main account he has a duck as his avatar so he’s often called ducky

Let’s put it this way: there are enough people townreading you that I’m not really interested in brute forcing your lynch over all else because I’m not confident enough that I’m right and they’re all wrong. THAT SAID I do feel v good about wooper!scum (admittedly mostly based on cheeky’s play > his direct play) and am willing to push that pretty hard, and if he does flip scum then I will be lynching you tomorrow literally 100% of the time if I’m still alive

[Menalque]

I’m caught up now btw @all

[Menalque]

Waiting for and expecting people to talk to me when they get to thread

[Menalque]

I also think cheeky is better than genuinely believing that QQ being a memelord is scum!indicative

QQ?

QuantumQuasar

[Menalque]

pls spell my name right

Font size must be 70+ --P

[Menalque]

I don’t really know what scum!titus is capable of because I know there was some RL stuff going on both times I’ve gone against her but I wold certainly lean town there

This is fair. I can get you scum games prior to that real life issue if needed.

Ehh i think second hand meta is quite unreliable so I’m just gonna wait until I have this directly

[Menalque]

I just drove over a thousand kilometres in the last 16 or so hours and haven’t slept more than 15 minutes in the last ~27 and I’m being held at the ferry port because the french government hasn’t confirmed yet that it will let brits go home

I’m actually doing surprisingly well considering all of that but haven’t really got time to play the game yet and prob won’t until tomorrow

[Menalque]

hi, I'm back in the country now and have slept

need to get some stuff organised here but I'll be around no forums today. catching up now

[Menalque]

I

think

homura is town but it’s still solidly uncertain. She has equity with LL at the least

Hmm..

what's your point regarding this?

[Menalque]

I really really think it’s exactly (wooper, LL)

You think both scum jump in and vote me with zero town on the wagon?

yeah, I did have this thought which is partly why homura is still susp, but overly trusting wagon composition is whack especially when prevailing logic is that scum wouldn't both jump on the same wagon at the start of day

I think that's probably NAI as far as partners goes

[Menalque]

I don't think Melanque should have been shot down, but I don't believe a slot can be obvtown by merely posting.

hard disagree ftr

also, Titus,

please

stop spelling my name wrong

just call me mena or something if you like

[Menalque]

I'm not doing anything until we get input from Crush, CJN, and Homura.

I thought you were basically locked on me!scum + Titus!scum

[Menalque]

raising the point of why you care so much about input from the other 3

is the game not solved fypov?

[Menalque]

my point is that I think that for someone who seems as confident in his reads as LL seems to be then acting like it's

omg super important that all the other slots post too!

is basically just posturing

[Menalque]

like it doesn't make sense with what else he seems to have displayed

look at the confidence level on phoenix!scum beforehand on D1

then the confidence level he's outputting on being right again today

which is kind of janky on its own bc if he's town then having been totally wrong on D1 should make you question your accuracy, but w/e that's sort of immaterial

the point is that he shouldn't if he's as confident in his solve as he is, be trying to sort those slots, he should be trying to convince them to get votes down on me/Titus

[Menalque]

like ducky, I know you're scum and that you're going to force this 1v1 (which, incidentally is incredibly +scum for you) but maybe let me finish catching up first?

[Menalque]

also you're obviously going to say it's "just fine" because you're either partners or you're pocketing him lmao

[Menalque]

r u srs I called titus/non scumteam non is replaced by a capable player who proceeds to derptunnel me based on a misrepresentative meta & toneread on my predecessor based on pg. 6 while Titus has absolutely no capacity to engage with anything that's happening itt in good faith

am I like
literally just 2/2?

this is scumposting ducky

I'm not derptunneling you

the meta I'm using is not misrepresentative, and my reasons for reading cheeky as scum are very valid

why is Titus not engaging with anything in good faith?

[Menalque]

Titus unvotes Menalque rather than immediately shifting her vote to another player. She's uncertain how she's meant to be viewing the replace-in - she doesn't have an actual read on the replace-in.

After this she ponders for a bit
Places a vote on LL (see: lynch isn't going thru bc the dude is clearly town)
then finally arrives on voting me
she doesn't want to vote with her partner but with that kind of distance she feels fine abt it

Menalque's entire iso is literally rhetoric and posturing
He replaces in with reads
Does his catchup
And gasp holy shit guess what
Everything points towards the scumteam he settled on back on pg 2!!!! ( :

his only read change is literally Homura who has been obvtown since replacing in but he hedged on anyway because she's.... polite

I don't have the time I wish I had to spam the shit out of the thread. But Titus/Menalque is the scumteam.

I am not getting lynched this phase.
End of discussion.

err, no

I replaced in without looking at the game at all. then I skimmed the first couple of pages and gave reads based on that. you know that's perfectly NAI for me because I give reads off the first couple of pages most games. I'm pretty sure you've been in games with me where I've voted scum correctly off the first couple of pages?

I don't think this is you looking at things from a town mindset, I think this is you trying to lock in a mislynch on me

for instance: I don't think town!you would be trying to say I'm scum for thinking the same two people are scum that I thought from initial impressions, I think you'd be trying to make me see that I was confbiased

I especially think that given that it's me and you know that I tend to get over-emotional when being pushed, you would be trying - if town - to avoid that outcome and to work with me

explain obvtown homura beyond her TRing you and LL?

[Menalque]

look i wouldn't have voted ph0enix d1 but i think it was a pretty town motivated wagon
someone playin the game havin reads and backin themselves on their reads isn't really a scum indicator

someone not checkin themselves on incorrect gamestate analysis and consequently flippin their reads isn't scum indicative. like especially for a newbie who might not have a strong feelin on how to read a gamestate yet

i thought ll's pred was towny ll's d1 was towny and ll's d2 so far has been towny too and liek, the fact he's confident in his reads doesn't shaek that for me

it v much feels 2 me like you set out to have this read on ll dude :/

why won't you engage with what I'm actually saying?

I don't think town!you has ever had this problem, even when we've been conflicting a la AvP

I never said someone playing the game and having reads and backing themselves was scum indicative

what I said was that the story of how LL is presenting those reads does not make sense nor do his actions if those reads are that strong

if LL on D1 was super confident in phoenix scum (he was) then that confidence should have been shaken by being wrong (it wasn't) but given that it wasn't then he should still be arrogantly overconfident in his wrongness (he is) in which case he doesn't need to sort the other slots he just needs them to vote for scum (he was trying to look like he wanted to sort them)

that story does not make sense from a town mindset

[Menalque]

I haven't "set out" to have a read on anyone and you're lowkey trying to set the framing as me being scum through comments like that

as in the way you're trying to make others perceive me

[Menalque]

you did the same thing when I repped in btw

[Menalque]

menalque i'm gonna need you to level w me pretty quick if you're scum dude

[Menalque]

like before I even got here really you were trying to encourage a scum perception of my slot and set me up to look bad

it's the same thing LL has been doing but slightly differently

[Menalque]

like ducky, I know you're scum and that you're going to force this 1v1 (which, incidentally is incredibly +scum for you) but maybe let me finish catching up first?

if i was tryna force a 1v1 i'd probs be doin less sortin and doin more tryin to actually lynch u can u pls focus on game related things a bit more

I am focused on game related things: namely, the fact that you're scum and that you need to see rope today

[Menalque]

also you're obviously going to say it's "just fine" because you're either partners or you're pocketing him lmao

i'm gonna say it's fine bc i don't think it's an ai post!!
like picking something so minor out of his legitimately towny iso and being like "wow this is scummy" is posturing

i could make an argument that it's towny, and i could make an argument that it's scummy, but i don't really feel like either is legitimate, and feel like you're applying some really weirdly 3d chess expert player expectations to the way ll is approaching reads :s

is scummy within the context that it was posted

I don't think his overall ISO is towny, and I don't know what you're seeing there that would make it so

so either the answer is we're seeing things radically differently for some reason (given that I know what my alignment is I know what the most obvious one is) or you don't see it differently to me but you're representing that you do (again, I wonder why)

[Menalque]

like I think I've quite clearly explained why it's scummy within the context of how LL has presented himself and his reads thus far this game

so I haven't "plucked" anything, I've made a comment on something that highlights something that I think is indicative of LL being intellectually dishonest

[Menalque]

@LL I'm curious on where you got your crush obvtown read

I'll tell you why crush is obvtown if you like

[Menalque]

Okay, I quite like homura on pg12 even if I don’t really like her content

Pretty much how I decided to townread homura day 1

As well as her post 390+

Hmmm

so what's the implication of this for your read on me then?

[Menalque]

There’s Def scum within (Karnage, Titus and Phe0nix)

Guess titus is prob town then

Come again?

I was being flippant about TSE's rabid overconfidence and the fact that 2 of his 3 "def scum here" are flipped town

[Menalque]

I’m caught up now btw @all

Why is Titus townie again? She's practically directionless and uncomfortable this day phase

I mean I think Titus is town but less for today and more for her D1 play, although I've said that she's probably one of my less confident reads here, esp. due to not really being aware of how she plays scum when she's committed to it

[Menalque]

I don't like they're [p]112[/p] though
he intentionally changed letters around in the spoiler
n o c m maybe that's code for no comment, maybe he gave up early on

I just noticed this and it should be incredibly town!indicative for my slot

[Menalque]

I mean I think Titus is town but less for today and more for her D1 play, although I've said that she's probably one of my less confident reads here, esp. due to not really being aware of how she plays scum when she's committed to it

u need to towncase titus off d1
if u haven't finished catching up, do it before u finish catching up pls

I'm just gonna pop this first: why would I towncase Titus D1 when I'm not 100% locked on Titus town?

[Menalque]

I can say what I think pinged me about Titus as town on d1 tho but that's not a towncase

[Menalque]

allllll of your postssssss are liessssss

I don't like they're [p]112[/p] though
he intentionally changed letters around in the spoiler
n o c m maybe that's code for no comment, maybe he gave up early on

I just noticed this and it should be incredibly town!indicative for my slot

the post he's talking about
is more likely to be a TPR crumb than anything else
the fact he noticed it at all is wolfy
the fact he brought it up without committing to what he actually thought it meant was even wolfier

it is a TPR crumb

him noticing that is not wolfy

him bringing it up is much more likely to be indicative of confused town than of scum

if he's scum why not bring that up in the scum PT and discuss it with your buddy

why does it make any sense to bring it up in main thread?

[Menalque]

I think karnage was fairly obviously town but then

I think Titus was too,

although her pushing there does give me some pause

I don’t really know what scum!titus is capable of because I know there was some RL stuff going on both times I’ve gone against her but I wold certainly

lean town

there

@wooper when you get here can you tell me what you thought of what I’m presuming is going to be a shitfest between Titus and karnage?

[Menalque]

Also I have crush and ceejay as town which means 2 scums in (wooper,

Titus

, luciano, homura)

[Menalque]

I mean I think Titus is town but less for today and more for her D1 play, although I've said that she's probably one of my less confident reads here, esp. due to not really being aware of how she plays scum when she's committed to it

u need to towncase titus off d1
if u haven't finished catching up, do it before u finish catching up pls

I'm just gonna pop this first: why would I towncase Titus D1 when I'm not 100% locked on Titus town?

because your

titus townread feels wayyyy overconfident.

.....lmfao
and i strongly dislike the fact you're now attempting to understate it

how does this line up at all with what I just posted from my ISO?

you're welcome, if you like, to go and try to find examples of me being overconfident on Titus!town, but you won't as they're not there

what I am is confident in you!scum and fairly confident in LL!scum

I'd mostly like to flip you today because I think there's the possibility of LL being town and you bussing Titus, or it just being homura

in which case you being flipped scum buys us a mislynch to try and sort within that

[Menalque]

like i can exactly see that being talked about in the scum pt
that is why he would remember a random ass post like that
but the fact he came here pointing it out but pretending not to have any thoughts about it?

ugh i just realised i'm fighting you about your own slot's alignment
i think it's slimy that he pointed it out but pretended not to have any thoughts about it
i think his actual *thoughts* r what u save for the scum pt, not noticing it in the first place

I mean why does he comment like that

like why bring up very specifically what the change is but not the fact that it spells out mason

[Menalque]

oh the other thing I didn't like about LL is that I do think phoe was obvtown and so pushing him was scummy

[Menalque]

let's try these

please don't pretend you have trajectory on your titus read you're cherrypicking posts where you faltered (again, with no stated reason)

I’m caught up now btw @all

Why is Titus townie again? She's practically directionless and uncomfortable this day phase

I mean I think Titus is town but less for today and more for her D1 play, although I've said that she's probably one of my less confident reads here, esp. due to not really being aware of how she plays scum when she's committed to it

explained and clearly not super confident

Also why do you think Titus is scummy?

asking why someone finds someone scummy =/= saying that person is town

I think karnage was fairly obviously town but then I think Titus was too, although her pushing there does give me some pause

I don’t really know what scum!titus is capable of because I know there was some RL stuff going on both times I’ve gone against her but I wold certainly lean town there

@wooper when you get here can you tell me what you thought of what I’m presuming is going to be a shitfest between Titus and karnage?

clearly not being super overconfident in Titus!town

There’s Def scum within (Karnage, Titus and Phe0nix)

Guess titus is prob town then

already explained that this was a joke

@titus vote the duck?

me trying to get people to vote for my scum reads doesn't mean I think they're super town either


literally anyone reading this, go to menalque's ISO and ctrl+f "titus"

[Menalque]

like i can exactly see that being talked about in the scum pt
that is why he would remember a random ass post like that
but the fact he came here pointing it out but pretending not to have any thoughts about it?

ugh i just realised i'm fighting you about your own slot's alignment
i think it's slimy that he pointed it out but pretended not to have any thoughts about it
i think his actual *thoughts* r what u save for the scum pt, not noticing it in the first place

I mean why does he comment like that

like why bring up very specifically what the change is but not the fact that it spells out mason

look dude i'm not going to pretend i can read non lmh's mind but

i know a guilty conscience when i see one

-the fact he clearly HAD thoughts but withheld them makes me think he did it to look town.

lol

[Menalque]

I can say what I think pinged me about Titus as town on d1 tho but that's not a towncase

bring it

still w8ing on this btw

believe it or not typing is not instantaneous

[Menalque]

all of this is +town for Titus imo

I'm really trying to move away from cases because I think they're generally unhelpful to town and beneficial to scum but we're kind of there anyway

Okay, I read what I had missed.

Titus changing her vote is NAI.
LunarRest using the word "mafioso" in that one post is NAI as well.

@Titus: What's your opinion on the reaction some people have to your change of vote?

I'm ok tentatively placing you as town based on the top post.

The discussion around me and my vote change is awkward and stilted. A few slots say the same thing and get nowhere but NAI, essentially repeating what came before.

What's absent is more telling. Everyone wants to know why my gut was strong enough, yet no one looked at Phi's behavior. It's not enough to make a strong case out of, but it's still interesting. Phil comes across artificial and fake in the opening sequence.

Mod: I voted Phi not Phoenix.

Fixed, thank you --P

I like her TRing pho but tentatively there. I think that's a non-informed mindset and I had similar thoughts

Phil comes across artificial and fake in the opening sequence.

I mean, given that your statement is based on 2 random filler RVS posts with no substance to them, as one could expect from very early posts, of course, isn't it a little far-fetched to say that?

No. It's farfetched to lock him as scum based off of that. To feel the ignorance of the wagon and discussion of food is an artificial distraction is not. Scum love to distract. It's a good place to start none the less. Plus, the sooner we escape RVS the better.

I liked all of this. not exaggerating read confidence or trying to get other people to lock him in as scum. trying to get out of RVS. trying to put focus on a common scum move which works against scum!her

H

ow is this misunderstanding happening with a player who has a join date older than mine unless it is a perspective slip?

I'm not sure on this and I kinda want backup.

I think this frustration reads as town. also, actually, the seeking of clarification from others on if her perception of it is accurate. I think it's very strange for you in particular to not see this as town!indicative

TSE, I guess you're on translation duty.

Phoenix, I'll try to explain my theory tonight. It makes sense in my head as an aha type moment but I'm not the clearest.

I think Scum!QQ means Scum!Titus
And Titus is coaching QQ.

Go ahead and elaborate. I would never coach someone to be that obtuse ever. I also oddly don't think QQ is scum independent of my theory. I just think it helps to lay out the groundwork of even bad theories so faulty premises can be corrected.

Why do you think QQ scum means I am coaching him? Do you think QQ is scum or not? Why would I coach someone to post word salad in a newbie game, when that would likely lead to them getting lynched?

all these questions felt like they had a point and were from the perspective of needing more information that she didn't have, ie they indicate that she's uninformed ie town

Right now, yes.

VOTE: Karnage

Theory, Karnage Cheeky scumteam

can you show examples of "good cop"/"bad cop" from before 94?

Sure, although I'm phoning in post numbers on Cheeky.

Cheeky immediately votes me for breaking RVS. Breaking RVS is usually a good thing. So why would experienced town vote me for that? Cheeky has had that hostile attitude since go

. Hence, Cheeky bad cop.

Your 64 is good cop. You're supposing I'm town and have players sucking up to me. This can interfere with natural town blocks. You starting from the supposition that I'm town and working outwards is good cop. You shouldn't know, at this point, that I am town.

I strongly agree that cheeky!duck is scum and this is part of the reason why, so mindmelding

@Cheeky, I have a theory I'm looking to test. If something changes my mind on that, I'll let you know.

Second, it is early so I am open to being wrong. That doesn't mean I'm open to baseless attacks for being protown.

You know based on my meta that I am stronger in later days too. You're perfectly free to ignore any theory you find baseless and scumhunt, if you're capable.

being very reasonable and trying to make sure the gamestate stays manageable / positive

@LL, I like your entry.

Can you elaborate on why Cheeky is town? I don't see it.

again, I think this is Titus checking for bias in her own reads and I think you should see it in particular as town!indicative

LL, I think your headstrong nature is doing you no favors. Your extreme confidence that only your way is correct, combined with your impatience give you a salesman type vibe at best. Your attitude is hostile and doesn't encourage people to talk or reveal who their partners may be. Your tactic might work on debate.org but not here.

If you're so sure scum is in your pool, see what mislynches scum go for and why. How people interact with each other shows their priorities.

again, dealing with LL almost in too good faith. there's a simpler explanation for his overconfidence, which is that he's scum and faking it. I think this is town misreading scum fake confidence, but also trying to reason with them to stop that overconfidence poisoning thread

[Menalque]

but yeah, I think cases are generally harmful to gamestate and I'd like to not get too hung up on point-by-point ironing out of the details

it just bores everyone other than the two people involved in it (+scum) and I don't think that it actually increases the odds of being correct

[Menalque]

I especially think that given that it's me and you know that I tend to get over-emotional when being pushed, you would be trying - if town - to avoid that outcome and to work with me

i think u kno my approach to being scumread (it's either bloody stupid, in which case it's probs scum or rly dumb town; OR it's a compliment that someone thinks i'm capable of ___ as scum / thinks they can make me look capable enough to have done ___ as scum)
i'll put this aside
liek
you get emotional and post a lot in realtime
why would i not make an attempt to pressure u so that u feel compelled to post in realtime and try to develop ur reads and watch how ur reads change

like you as either alignment can pop in with "my reads off pg 2 are {a, b, c}

im melanque.

vote: b"
you as scum sincerely struggle to fake a trajectory in realtime
ur TONE feels the same but ur content struggles hard
and that is how i see ur alignment

like you're suggesting i'm not town because i'm doing everythin in my power 2 strongarm u into produing alignment indicative content when ur in my PoE but i'm not reeaally confident on my read on your preds

the fuck?

okay, that's actually quite a fair approach

what is your conclusion then?

[Menalque]

I think you're probably overestimating my difficulties in faking trajectories in games for future reference tho btw

[Menalque]

@crush @ceejay interested in joining me on wooper?

Need to reread Wooper ISO with your comments in mind before I do that, because right now I don't think Wooper is the place to go.

okay, where do you wanna go then?

[Menalque]

the Lynch today should be in Titus and wooper for reasons

[Menalque]

sure i don't want the game flooded in cases at ALL but u have been feelin tonally far 2 confident on town!titus and i think it was incredibly appropriate 2 drag that outta u

for the most part i generally agree except i think ur kinda ignoring the parts of d1 where she felt kinda schketchy which makes ur case feel like you already know titus' alignment but i also think i'm gonna benefit from giving this another read after a sleep


kinda struggle with you loving titus' super early game yet her being in your PoE pool in your third post.

pedit:

this is like, the most scummy i've ever seen you

she's in my PoE pool because I'm locktown on ceejay and crush and therefore everyone else is PoE'd

re: bolded -- pretty good sign I'm town then hey

[Menalque]

aware i underestimate your scum skillset (i've lurked some of ur games to check myself after Alisae v. Pine & stuff) but your trajectories as town are stubborn yet believable; ur trajectories as scum are either nonexistent or outlandish and ur

i'm menalque.

moments don't feeeellll as deserved

ur also usually lower pressure as scum but i don't think that's a very valuable tell here

so I'm (1) stubbornly pushing for your Lynch

(2) super high pressure here

(3) looking scummy

and you're not TRing me ?

[Menalque]

I have got a lot better at increasing my WIM in scum games tbf

[Menalque]

do you wanna check my sig for a second

[Menalque]

Also, what's your read on Menalque?

@homura around here why no comments on me?

[Menalque]

Let’s put it this way: there are enough people townreading you that I’m not really interested in brute forcing your lynch over all else because I’m not confident enough that I’m right and they’re all wrong. THAT SAID I do feel v good about wooper!scum (admittedly mostly based on cheeky’s play > his direct play) and am willing to push that pretty hard, and if he does flip scum then I will be lynching you tomorrow literally 100% of the time if I’m still alive

What about Wooper's direct play was scummy, Mena?

oh, I missed this one

it's not wooper so much as cheeky

I'm not sure that I SR wooper on his direct play before I rep in and he starts positioning to get me lynched

[Menalque]

don't try to force a t/t dichotomy my dude.
i am also not keen on titus goin thru today; if we mislynch me 2day i think ur always tomorrow's lynch which gets us down to f3
if we mislynch someone else like titus isn't gonna steer and power over f5 but i thinkkkk we'll b able to solve for her partner
if we hit red today then we'll be able to sort for partners, and titus only looks aligned with a few people in the game

so like titus isn't the right lynch here

okay fuckit, we're going into this

we're lynching in you two because you're both hard softing TPR and there's only one left

which means if there is a TPR left then the other one is scum setting up for a 1v1 fakecliam tomorrow

[Menalque]

VOTE: wooper
VOTE: wooper
VOTE: wooper
VOTE: wooper
VOTE: wooper

[Menalque]

aware i underestimate your scum skillset (i've lurked some of ur games to check myself after Alisae v. Pine & stuff) but your trajectories as town are stubborn yet believable; ur trajectories as scum are either nonexistent or outlandish and ur

i'm menalque.

moments don't feeeellll as deserved

ur also usually lower pressure as scum but i don't think that's a very valuable tell here

so I'm (1) stubbornly pushing for your Lynch

(2) super high pressure here

(3) looking scummy

and you're not TRing me ?

(1) ur push on me doesn't feel headstrong stubborn and correct like your pushes do when ur town. ur literally scrambling to find responses 2 me and they feel paperthin. it feels like you're tryin to mislynch me but i am really strugglin to believe this is actually a read you have with reasons for having this read which you have.

(2) - you're like very low pressure compared to our last game lol (which is actually a good thing for gamestate but w/e)
- it's 7p in a micro which distorts the value of Pressure tells because it's very easy to be proportionately higher pressure than 6 other people in a newbie game
- you've been v/la
^^^ as i said, i am not leaning on this tell it's too flimsy

(3) uh
yeah
sorry
you read scummy as scum

I'm not scrambling at all dude, and I don't think you in good faith sees this as me scrambling

response on 2 is good

and er, actually I normally don't, I think one of the best ways of catching scum!me is how TR I am

[Menalque]

have you finished your catchup?

kinda still working through it but trying to take advantage of having you here directly

[Menalque]

I think we really should flip you today but if we don't and you consider me town who is scum?

[Menalque]

I'm still not understanding why you're stuck on this point, Titus. Karnage was the compromise lynch because he was the secondmost scumread. You actually led the wagon on Karnage, but now you're hung up on why everyone else agreed with you. If you wanted Cheeky or Luciano as the compromise deadline lynch over Karnage, why didn't you vote one of them intead?

Because this is making me feel you knew Karnage would flip green and wanted to cast shade on both of your scumreads for not being wagoned.

Am I misunderstanding your intentions here?

I totally disagree that cheeky THIS GAME is being vexing as opposed to appeasing

I think cheeky THIS GAME was intentionally trying to play nice and get people on side. which you yourself would admit is scum behaviour from her, only you're trying to argue that I'm scum reading her for being scummy when it's almost the opposite?

I think cheeky would be hard to push for being scummy which is exactly why I think she is scummy

if I'm not as interested in reading you, it's because I think your slot, which you share the alignment of, has already been insanely scummy. why would I spend a lot of time trying to sort you directly especially when if given half the chance you would pocket me. added to the fact that I don't think you're engaging me in particularly good faith. I'm trying to parse things because I'm still hoping we Lynch you today bc on the off chance it's wrong then lynching you tomorrow would just lose the game, but I would wanna see why your head was at where it was it today if you flipped town

[Menalque]

like i can exactly see that being talked about in the scum pt
that is why he would remember a random ass post like that
but the fact he came here pointing it out but pretending not to have any thoughts about it?

ugh i just realised i'm fighting you about your own slot's alignment
i think it's slimy that he pointed it out but pretended not to have any thoughts about it
i think his actual *thoughts* r what u save for the scum pt, not noticing it in the first place

I mean why does he comment like that

like why bring up very specifically what the change is but not the fact that it spells out mason

112

Let's bring up very specifically what the change is, and the fact that it spells out "n o c m", or no claim. Where drugs did you take before reading that to see mason?

err, no

the replaced letters (there are 5) are "m a s o n"

[Menalque]

it's not about the letters Karnage put there instead, it's the ones which are gone

[Menalque]

all of which is immaterial beyond why tf would non bring this up as scum in main thread without even having made the connection that it spells mason?

[Menalque]

Why would my confidence be shaken? I don't care if I end up being wrong. I find things to focus in on, I take them to their extreme, and I see what happens. That's my style. I don't plan on solving the game on my own. This is a team game, the input of other players is valuable. I don't find treading around carefully and withholding my thoughts because I might be wrong to be conducive to winning. I'd rather make cases and possibly push people a bit past their comfort zone and let other people be the judge of the interaction than try and be the judge jury and executioner all on my own.

right, but you should be re-evaluating in the cases where you are wrong

you're saying here that you don't want to be judge jury and executioner, but you forced the town into a lynching position on phoenix before he claimed PR

how is that you being open to others and playing as a team?

[Menalque]

homura, what do you think is town from LL?

[Menalque]

Can the people who have provided reads/theories for scumteams and haven't explained the reasoning behind them do so :/

I'm leaning town on Titus and TSE atm

I think that's all. Also, I don't like how Karnage called out TSE in 98 for not providing reasoning behind his theory, but later he posts his townleans without us knowing why he feels this way about the particular people he's leaning town on.

I really like these two posts from Titus. They show a strong town mindset imo. Granted they could be faked which is why I only lean town for now.

Spoiler:

The discussion around

n

e and my vote change is awkward and stilted. A few slots say the same thing and get nowhere but NAI, essentially repe

o

ting what came before.

What's ab

c

ent is more telling. Everyone wants to know why my gut was strong enough, yet no one looked at Phi's behavior. It's n

e

t enough to make a strong case out of, but it's still interesting. Phil comes across artificial and fake in the ope

m

ing sequence.

Mod: I voted Phi not Phoenix.

Fixed, thank you --P

No. It's farfetched to lock him as scum based off of that. To feel the ignorance of the wagon and discussion of food is an artificial distraction is not. Scum love to distract. It's a good place to start none the less. Plus, the sooner we escape RVS the better.

Re: 98 - that was "calling out" Titus, not TSE. I dont think saying I called them out is a fair description though. It was meant to be kinda snarky to just point out that without reasoning I don't think the vote should be taken too seriously. Also, I think there's a difference between voting somebody without saying why and having a town lean on somebody without saying why.

[Menalque]

bolded for your convenience

[Menalque]

Nope. Non's post caught Karnage's breadcrumb of "no claim". I don't know where Mena got mason from. The most interesting point about Non's post if, based on my limited exposure to him, I doubt he would have caught that. I think it's more likely Titus fed it to him.

I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that Non caught it himself, since he appears to be a regular, but that's NAI.

It is AI. If he cannot catch it himself, then he must be scum. We're not at LYLO so we don't need absolutes. Based on his play, do you think it's more likely that he could catch it himself, or less? If you had to put a percentage on it, what would it be? If he can catch it 1-in-5 games, then 80% of the time he's 100% scum, and 20% of the time he's X% scum. If your faith in him is that low, we hedge on him being scum. I agree that we personally don't know the extent of his capability though, which is why I asked other players to chime in, which they haven't.

lmao what

him catching it doesn't make him scum automatically? why is it scummy to catch it at all?

[Menalque]

homura, what do you think is town from LL?

All in my ISO.

can you explain it in the simplest possible terms to me now directly please

[Menalque]

I mean I think this game is probably lost because either you're scum and town is widely townreading you or you're town and you're leading things in completely the wrong direction

[Menalque]

Alright, I missed "net". So Karnage meant to breadcrumb mason, yet he was vanilla. Titus was keen on lynching Karnage and Non hammered. How are you not giving me more reason to lynch you?

why does this make you want to lynch me?

[Menalque]

Assuming I'm town, who is the scumteam?

wooper + Titus is not an awful shout

wooper + homura is possible

[Menalque]

can you explain it in the simplest possible terms to me now directly please

@Homura, what's your town block looking like atm?

{Crush, Luciano, Wooper}, in that order.

okay, but this doesn't explain why you think LL is so town, just that he is

[Menalque]

the problem is that if you're town LL then you pushing me when I think I've been intensely townie ever since I repped in is something that scum like to do because if they don't have to burn a NK on me it's generally very useful for them

so this gives me a much higher margin of error on those pushing me, and generally I need at least one other slot who I can trust to tell me if they think the push is good or bad faith. the problem here is that there are only about two slots I trust other than myself, and neither of them is particularly active or able to bounce ideas off me with them

[Menalque]

like I'm giving you a mild pass because you're a newbie, but by far the most obvious answer to you and scum!wooper trying to lynch me today is that scum!wooper is teamed with scum!you

[Menalque]

Nope. Non's post caught Karnage's breadcrumb of "no claim". I don't know where Mena got mason from. The most interesting point about Non's post if, based on my limited exposure to him,

I doubt he would have caught that. I think it's more likely Titus fed it to him

.

like you keep making conjectures which I don't have any real thought behind them or basis in reality. why is it likely Titus caught that? why would she pass it to him and tell him to flag it up in main thread but not that it's saying mason instead of no claim?

these are things that don't make sense and therefore you're either not thinking about them you're town or you're scum

[Menalque]

We have 7 players left. 2 are scum. If you are town you are looking at 2 scum and 4 town outside of yourself. You clearly think I'm scum, and you think wooper is scum. That's already 2 of the 6 not!you players. But you would also advocate lynching Titus and Homura. You are calling 4 of the 6 living players scum. Assuming you are town, and we mislynch somebody who is not you today, how the hell are you going to lead the town to victory at LYLO if your play this DP is to literally offer up anyone as a lynch who isn't you?

err, no, that's not what I'm doing

I've at no point advocated lynching Titus or homura (other than saying we should Lynch within Titus and wooper)

I am saying that I think the most likely scum is (you, wooper) but that I could also see homura or Titus as scum because I'm not town reading either of them

I have a very strong preference for lynching wooper, but also yes, obviously any of those lynches are preferable to me because I could see them as scum whereas I know I'm town?

[Menalque]

I'm still not understanding why you're stuck on this point, Titus. Karnage was the compromise lynch because he was the secondmost scumread. You actually led the wagon on Karnage, but now you're hung up on why everyone else agreed with you. If you wanted Cheeky or Luciano as the compromise deadline lynch over Karnage, why didn't you vote one of them intead?

Because this is making me feel you knew Karnage would flip green and wanted to cast shade on both of your scumreads for not being wagoned.

Am I misunderstanding your intentions here?

I totally disagree that cheeky THIS GAME is being vexing as opposed to appeasing

I think cheeky THIS GAME was intentionally trying to play nice and get people on side. which you yourself would admit is scum behaviour from her, only you're trying to argue that I'm scum reading her for being scummy when it's almost the opposite?

I think cheeky would be hard to push for being scummy which is exactly why I think she is scummy

if I'm not as interested in reading you, it's because I think your slot, which you share the alignment of, has already been insanely scummy. why would I spend a lot of time trying to sort you directly especially when if given half the chance you would pocket me. added to the fact that I don't think you're engaging me in particularly good faith. I'm trying to parse things because I'm still hoping we Lynch you today bc on the off chance it's wrong then lynching you tomorrow would just lose the game, but I would wanna see why your head was at where it was it today if you flipped town

You didn't mean to quote me, but I'd like to hear your thoughts on this regardless.

how so

I think my thoughts are already there

[Menalque]

I am saying that I think the most likely scum is (you, wooper) but that I could also see homura or

Titus as scum because I'm not town reading either of them

Why the discrepancy?

again, I'm not sure what you mean

what discrepancy?

[Menalque]

the problem is that if you're town LL then you pushing me when I think I've been intensely townie ever since I repped in is something that scum like to do because if they don't have to burn a NK on me it's generally very useful for them

like I'm giving you a mild pass because you're a newbie, but by far the most obvious answer to you and scum!wooper trying to lynch me today is that scum!wooper is teamed with scum!you

so this gives me a much higher margin of error on those pushing me, and generally I need at least one other slot who I can trust to tell me if they think the push is good or bad faith. the problem here is that there are only about two slots I trust other than myself, and neither of them is particularly active or able to bounce ideas off me with them

I mean if you want to get into WIFOM,

I can just come out and tell you that I was so good at scumplay on my old site that oftentimes town lost at LYLO because they'd rather mislynch me and lose than lose to me as scum again.

You are not ever a nightkill target.

You are not ever "intensely townie ever since [you] repped in"

. There has been a majority to lynch you for several IRL days right now. I'm literally the one that advocated an extension to give my two scumreads time to post, because I'd rather take it slow and be certain.

Mafia always wants to lynch you because you are so clearly scummy

. Any mafia that night kills you is objectively bad. If you flip green, then pretty much every town in this game is collectively wrong and we can look back on the lynch to solve the game at LYLO.

Your analysis on scum!Lucky wanting to lynch you to save a nightkill is so objectively bad

that I can only see your play here as trying to mislead new players in

a way that takes advantage of it being a newbie game and is harmful to the growth of mafia

.

(1) oh, wonderful, you're one of those players. this is actually mildly frustrating because it makes me a bit less sure on scum!you -- I'd probably force through your lynch if I wasn't in this slot because I deal very badly with players who are (a) very arrogant (b) very wrong (c) incapable of acknowledging a or b

(2) I'm townie for anyone who wants to look bro, and idk where you're getting "there has been a majority to lynch you for several IRL days right now". like, there's been an openness to it, I don't think anyone has been calling for it hard other than you and wooper

(3) unless we lynch scum!wooper in which case I'm basically never getting mislynched. and seeing as that's the main alternative I'm pushing to my lynch, yes, scum have a massive incentive to Lynch me not NK me

(4) lmao

[Menalque]

the main reason I'm fighting so hard is because I know that towns tend to forget who the flipped town say to lynch but if you don't ignore me then lynch wooper/luciano tomorrow

[Menalque]

I think my thoughts are already there

Was asking for your thoughts on my post. Your response indicated that you did not mean to quote it and was responding to Wooper.

oooohhhhh, right, okay

yeah lemme look at it 2 secs

[Menalque]

what discrepancy?

You were townreading Titus.

yeah, but I was asked for the teams if LL is town

also saying I think someone is probably town but not locktown doesn't mean they're out of PoE when there's only 4 possible people I think scum can be within

[Menalque]

We have 7 players left. 2 are scum. If you are town you are looking at 2 scum and 4 town outside of yourself. You clearly think I'm scum, and you think wooper is scum. That's already 2 of the 6 not!you players. But you would also advocate lynching Titus and Homura. You are calling 4 of the 6 living players scum. Assuming you are town, and we mislynch somebody who is not you today, how the hell are you going to lead the town to victory at LYLO if your play this DP is to literally offer up anyone as a lynch who isn't you?

err, no, that's not what I'm doing

I've at no point advocated lynching Titus or homura (other than saying we should Lynch within Titus and wooper)

I am saying that I think the most likely scum is (you, wooper) but that I could also see homura or Titus as scum because I'm not town reading either of them

I have a very strong preference for lynching wooper, but also yes, obviously any of those lynches are preferable to me because I could see them as scum whereas I know I'm town?

It feels like you aren't trying to scumhunt and you are just trying to survive. That's always either bad!town or !scum.

you have no idea what you're talking about, but again, p sure it's because you're scum

homura what do you think is town!indicative about all of this from LL

[Menalque]

like I don't see how LL is doing anything other than open wolfing rn with the shit he's spewing

[Menalque]

seriously, how tf does anyone look at my ISO and say "you aren't trying to scumhunt" when the point you're making is that I said that homura or Titus could be possible scum in a hypothetical where you

specifically asked me to exclude you being scum

how is that good faith, like what

[Menalque]

VOTE: Menalque. I can't convince myself that it's not Menalque + Titus. If I'm wrong on Menalque, I'm down to reconsider at LYLO. There's literally nobody else that is going to get enough traction to be lynched this DP, so let's just move on.

also, see this: trying to generate the notion that my lynch is inevitable to ensure it goes through.

read my ISO people, look at what I'm saying, and look at how surface level LL's read on me is and his play around me has been. he's literally been trying to set me up to be lynched from the moment I repped in by suggesting that Titus unvoting me would be scum!indicative for us as a team, when actually unvoting a replaced slot who puts up a bunch of content after repping in is entirely normal

[Menalque]

seriously, how tf does anyone look at my ISO and say "you aren't trying to scumhunt" when the point you're making is that I said that homura or Titus could be possible scum in a hypothetical where you

specifically asked me to exclude you being scum

how is that good faith, like what

That's exactly why I asked you what I did.

I wanted to see how committed you were to your reads. I know you SR me. I know you SR wooper. I wanted to know how many people you would advocate lynching just to get off the chopping block.

so you're just admitting that it wasn't a question asked in good faith then

[Menalque]

(1) oh, wonderful, you're one of those players. this is actually mildly frustrating because it makes me a bit less sure on scum!you -- I'd probably force through your lynch if I wasn't in this slot because I deal very badly with players who are (a) very arrogant (b) very wrong (c) incapable of acknowledging a or b

This does slightly lessen my townread on Luciano a bit, actually.

P-edit:

You two are mirroring each other

.

not exactly.

I have a proven record on site, which you know and both Titus/wooper can confirm if they so wish.

I've deliberately been

incredibly

measured and reasonable here, which at the very least wooper can confirm

LL is, I'm fairly sure, trying to provoke me into staying focused on a 1v1 with him, and is pretty demonstrably not interested in sorting me. see: bad faith questions, setting me up to fail no matter what I say

[Menalque]

seriously, how tf does anyone look at my ISO and say "you aren't trying to scumhunt" when the point you're making is that I said that homura or Titus could be possible scum in a hypothetical where you

specifically asked me to exclude you being scum

how is that good faith, like what

That's exactly why I asked you what I did.

I wanted to see how committed you were to your reads. I know you SR me. I know you SR wooper. I wanted to know how many people you would advocate lynching just to get off the chopping block.

so you're just admitting that it wasn't a question asked in good faith then

Not at all. If you say something along the lines of, "Well, if you are town then I'm lost at who Wooper's scummate is" then you would look very town. How can you be so strong on your two reads and then so easily abandon one when asked a hypothetical like that? How much do you actually believe what you say?

no, this is literally acting in bad faith. if you say "imagine I'm town, who is scum" then you haven't pulled some magic scum catching trick if the person goes "well, in a world where you're town then I guess it's someone else in my PoE" you've just asked a bad faith question and tried to make it into something it's not

[Menalque]

and if you're doing that then you're not really trying to sort me which requires actually acting in good faith

[Menalque]

hence my confidence in you being scum, but me being confident in that doesn't mean that I'm 100% on it because that's a wonderful way to end up with egg on your face

[Menalque]

not exactly.

I have a proven record on site, which you know and both Titus/wooper can confirm if they so wish.

I've deliberately been incredibly measured and reasonable here, which at the very least wooper can confirm

I did not mean to imply that you were otherwise and I apologize if I came off that way.

Slightly related, though, it's been half a year since I last participated in a game with you (other than the last Newbie), so you'll forgive me if I cannot read you as well. Do you think you're outside of your scumrange this game?

oh, you're actually not who I thought you were then but I think I do know who you are. there's another new player who posts similarly to you. unless the game I'm thinking of with you is older than I realised, but I still don't think it makes it to half a year.

I'm not sure that's a super useful question in terms of sorting me tbh. I'm not sure I am, my scum range is pretty broad nowadays, and while I would struggle to effort post as much as I have this game I probably could if motivated and Trying Hard(tm).

I think the better way is to look at me holistically and ask whether I'm trying to solve the game or not/why I'm making the pushes I am

[Menalque]

Mena, under the hypothetical that Luciano is town, do you think I or Titus would be the most likely partner for scum!Wooper?

you not being who I thought you were changes the equation slightly, but idk if it makes you townier or scummier

I'll try to stop judging you as much based on meta

as for the question, I'm not sure. I find it weird that wooper + Titus are now townreading each other sorta? but LL is much more plausible scum still so I'm not entertaining that possibility unless my lynch becomes inevitable and I have to try to give more nuanced reads to potentially help you guys tomorrow

[Menalque]

oh, I'm also now going to be ignoring LL until further notice because he's either aggressively bad or scum, but either way his continued attempts to engage me in bad faith are helpful to no-one other than scum

[Menalque]

willing to talk about LL with others tho

[Menalque]

I'm still not understanding why you're stuck on this point, Titus. Karnage was the compromise lynch because he was the secondmost scumread. You actually led the wagon on Karnage, but now you're hung up on why everyone else agreed with you. If you wanted Cheeky or Luciano as the compromise deadline lynch over Karnage, why didn't you vote one of them intead?

Because this is making me feel you knew Karnage would flip green and wanted to cast shade on both of your scumreads for not being wagoned.

Am I misunderstanding your intentions here?

wasn't Titus still townreading LL at end of day 1? I need to check that again

do you think there's something problematic about Titus being hung up on people agreeing with her? I think that's a fairly reasonable thing to be worried about, especially if you're town and you're leading and you think it's likely scum are following you

why do you think Titus voted my slot today and not cheeky?

[Menalque]

VOTE: LL

[Menalque]

wasn't Titus still townreading LL at end of day 1? I need to check that again

Point taken — she didn't scumread Luciano at the time. I'm still not sure why she's scumreading him today, besides his aggressiveness.

do you think there's something problematic about Titus being hung up on people agreeing with her? I think that's a fairly reasonable thing to be worried about, especially if you're town and you're leading and you think it's likely scum are following you

Because the context surrounding the wagon was that Luciano was a top general townread and that Titus had considered the interaction TvT. The fact that she's asking everyone why Luciano wasn't wagoned in place of Ph0enix is disingenuous in light of that. Why would everyone divert onto Luciano when Karnage has been the consensus scumread?

why do you think Titus voted my slot today and not cheeky?

I honestly have no clue, which has been the same stance I've taken for Titus's entire play this game. Why do you think she voted your slot?

I still don't understand what it is in LL that you're reading as being particularly townie, so can you please go through this for me again. As mentioned, when being pushed, it makes it a lot harder for me to tell if the push is bad but in good faith or in bad faith and from scum trying to lynch me. LL has definitely got some moments of acting in bad faith which is making me hard lean it being the latter, but if you think this is him genuinely believing I'm scum can you show me where you're getting that from

I think those are very reasonable points around Titus and I'd need to reread to double check. Titus, did you answer why people would divert onto LL when Karnage was the general scumread?

I'm not sure, but I think potentially it has to do with the PR softing that's been going on between the two of them, but now I don't get why they're not being more adversarial when they're both softing PR and only one could possibly have one

[Menalque]

Mena, under the hypothetical that Luciano is town, do you think I or Titus would be the most likely partner for scum!Wooper?

you not being who I thought you were changes the equation slightly, but idk if it makes you townier or scummier

I'll try to stop judging you as much based on meta

as for the question, I'm not sure. I find it weird that wooper + Titus are now townreading each other sorta? but LL is much more plausible scum still so I'm not entertaining that possibility unless my lynch becomes inevitable and I have to try to give more nuanced reads to potentially help you guys tomorrow

It might not be half a year — I don't quite recall. Who else do you know who's bad with votecounts?

hmm, this actually makes me less sure again. maybe I was right the first time in who I thought. I'm probably gonna PM you post game with a guess if that's cool

was the completed game we had "flawless" -- as in we lynched scum D1 and D2 to win?

[Menalque]

I

t's important to note that with every lynch and every NK the number of players alive decreases. That means we have more alignment-locks through dead players, and we can look back at past interactions as 100% tvt, tvs, or svs, because we know they are

. That limits the amount of interactions we have to look at to solve the game. Menalque has demonstrated in 1036 that he engages in long-term thinking while playing. That's why

I

know that

he

knows to take into consideration the fact that the landscape of the game will be different next dp than this one. That's why I believe his answer to my question was disingenuous. If he never thinks long-term, then maybe as town he really is focused on this DP and survival. However,

he has actively shown that he is indeed thinking about how the game will play out in the following DPs

, so survival is not the only component of his decision-making. Why is he implicitly thinking long-term when attacking me, but default to a survivalist mentality when I ask him to conceptualize the long-term from a town perspective?

NB: IIOA at the beginning, not actually producing anything

it doesn't change the number of interactions that need to be looked at either

obviously I think long term, this is a terrible argument. again, if I'm asked to entertain a hypothetical, I'll do so, even if being asked to do so by someone I think is scum -- the whole premise is there in the term "hypothetical" given that I don't see myself as infallible. to try to characterise this as a "survivalist mentality" because I didn't go HA BUT YOU CANNOT BE SCUM, YOU SCUMBAG, AND YOUR QUESTION PRESUPPOSES A WORLD THAT DOTH NOT EXIST AND I AM NOT FALLING FOR YOUR GAMES is just exceptionally "bruh" worthy if town but again, really seems more likely scum

[Menalque]

@ work atm and suddenly posts which is VERY exciting but i can't read til later
tty all later

around now?

[Menalque]

wooper + Titus are now townreading each other sorta

Catching up, but this is not true

okay, that's my bad

what are your reads as of this moment, Titus?

[Menalque]

LL is making points that feel very valid to me, the only red thing about LL is that he feels too sure about his reads and I don't think I can lynch him, just on that.

what feels valid about the points he's making? can you highlight to me what seems like legit reasoning?

[Menalque]

VOTE: Menalque

This is L-1

do you actually think I'm scum, crush, or are you voting me here because of the fact that I've been locked in two 1v1s since I joined the thread?

whether you do or don't, why don't you want to talk to me more directly before lining up to end day?

[Menalque]

I think if Menalque v LL is TvT we won't win this game btw, but we'll see.

yeah, probably agree on this tbh

[Menalque]

whoever scum is, I think they've played well this game given that I think I'm still getting mislynched despite how obvtown I've been and people aren't really seeming to want to listen to me/talk to me

[Menalque]

not 100% sure if that means I'm wrong and scum are actually far more comfortable than I thought, or if I'm right and scum are okay because most people are hard TRing at least one of them

[Menalque]

newbies: I'm going to flip town, so this post is more to be read after the fact. This game is probably going to be a loss, sorry. When things seem in stasis like this, it means things are probably going well for scum, because the gamestate -- the general way people are pushing, activity levels in the thread etc -- is quite static. In general, scum are aiming for a gamestate where they're in control, where they get to direct which mislynches happen in order to set up for an optimal lylo situation. If you're town, what you should be doing is trying to interrogate the gamestate and be active and probing. Part of the reason this game is going so badly for town is because most people are being super passive. I'm active, wooper and LL are active, and homura has been active to a slightly lesser extent.

The lack of content from ceejay, Titus, and crush is killing the game because it means there's not any fresh insight coming through, and it's also meaning that in the case that most of this is TvT then scum are able to simply blend into the background with inactive town players.

This game should also serve as a warning to the risk of allowing ego players (I should be included in this to an extent) to be allowed to have too much control on the gamestate. If LL is scum, then he's being allowed to have a disproportionate influence on where mislynches are directed. If town, then he's being allowed to have a disproportionate impact on where mislynches are directed. I still mostly think he's scum but it's very hard to check this when people aren't willing to talk to me about what they're seeing in his content that's town and break it down for me.

In general, trying to work off the backs of those who have good read accuracy is better than following the (proven to be bad) reads of someone who you think is town, or the reads of everyone averaged together. So far LL has scumread and pushed only town (phoe, Karnage, me) and therefore even if you think he is town, you should stop trusting his reads as time goes on. Obviously, it's harder to know who to trust as time goes on without a scumflip because you can't be sure who's reads have been accurate up to this point.

Final points: be aware that reads that are too accurate from too little can be scum!indicative for a person and show they're bussing rather than truly solving, and finally if you're in lylo be aware that scum generally have a plan and aren't just chancing it. that means they've brought someone along who they think they can mislynch, and someone along who they think is willing to vote that mislynch. if you find yourself there, try to think about whether you've been set for the mislynch OR more crucially, if there's a person who looks like obvscum to you who you've wanted to lynch for days, if you're the person who's been brought to cast the game losing vote on the mislynch.

[Menalque]

I would like to talk to everyone who isn't LL about who they want to lynch and why

somewhat less interested in wooper as we've already run through a lot, but the rest of you, let's chat

this game is cruising towards a mislynch, LL is encouraging that very hard, so let's talk about why he's town and why you think I'm scum if you do

[Menalque]

Wooper, if you’re town then why has it felt like you’ve been really uninterested in working with me vs pushing me ever since I repped in?

[Menalque]

Is it unreasonable of me to expect town!you to have a high level of desire to work with me even in a case where you dislike my pushes or think I’m scummy?

[Menalque]

The lack of content from ceejay, Titus, and crush is killing the game because it means there's not any fresh insight coming through, and it's also meaning that in the case that most of this is TvT then scum are able to simply blend into the background with inactive town players.

If you think there's a lack of content from me, you're making a huge mistake.

I am lock clearing ceejay even more than you.

Since I repped in, you haven’t been here to talk as much as I want and I would expect more from you as a strong town voice. Like I very much feel like I’ve been in an uphill battle talking to LL and wooper and it would have been nice to have you at least participating in that

[Menalque]

I can't go into detail right now, but with the solutions that are presented and are realistic in my eyes are LL + Wooper or Menal + Titus. I'm not looking at Titus + Wooper, that just doesn't make any sense and I don't understand why you would ever opt that. I've been trying to get people to talk about 'obvious town' TSE but no one is actually responding to that, so be it, guess CJ is out of the picture today. Homura has been very 0 for me during D1 but yesterday this slots questioning felt pretty towny. Anyway I don't think Wooper is ever the lynch here, CJ is left alone. Honestly rn I'm just thinking about LL + Wooper and Menal + Titus, and since this 1v1 has developed it has become almost inevitable that we lynch either one of them. If we don't do it, the same thing will continue D3 if we don't hit red and that wouldn't get us any further. The reason I'm voting Menal over LL is because I think didn't like both of your predecessors, I don't think your solutions are likely and I've generally liked LL since D1.

I might go into more detail later as to why I like LL over Menal, but unless LL is willing to reconsider Menal D3 I just think this is the best option.

I think you should be very careful to not split this dichotomy like this

it looks like I'll flip today, and I'll be green, which means that according to your logic that LL + wooper is the obvious team and Titus is cleared

it's possible that is the scumteam and that the plan they have is win in 5p lylo against Titus, but you gotta bear in mind that scum know what my flip will be once the get it. which means it's actually quite risky for scum!LL and scum!wooper to push that because after I flip one of them should flip tomorrow which then sets up the final one to be lynched in 3p. so that's losing for scum

1v1s are rarely inevitable, and if you think it's been forced, I think you should look at who's been trying to force it and why. I think it's pretty clearly LL, and I've been trying to move out of it and to engage other people. I do understand the idea that it's good to resolve it today, because the risk is that if we're both town then LL votes me tomorrow and we lose if we don't get scum instead today, if he's town

can you please go into why you see LL as town, because I find it very hard to judge the alignment of anyone shitpushing me and this is a standing issue that I have

[Menalque]

The safer play is for any surviving tprs to claim here but I don't think that's the better play - wld prefer to enter f5 first regardless of how today finishes

Tbh I don't think? if the surviving tpr exists, they should claim yet

pedit: I wasn't softing tpr Titus.

wooper, you were definitely softing TPR

[Menalque]

I am not getting lynched this phase.
End of discussion.

this was very obviously a soft

[Menalque]

ugh VOTE: wooper

[Menalque]

I'm kind of lowkey thinking that LL may be just very bad town here now

[Menalque]

I'm gonna feel really fucking dumb postgame if I've talked myself out of a scumread into "this is aggressively bad town" but that's kinda what I'm thinking at this point

[Menalque]

like the attempts to coalesce around the team being either "mena + Titus" or "wooper + LL" is wrong I think

[Menalque]

because scum know I'm flipping which means that "Titus + mena" is gonna be disproved

so if the attempt is to set up a narrative of Team A not being possible means it must be Team B means that unless the team is exactly "wooper + LL" then that's losing

and if that's losing for scum then they'd be distancing from it or not going for it

so I think probably a max of 1 scum in (wooper, LL)

[Menalque]

Titus, I'm still feeling sort of paranoid about you but what do you think of crush's play here the last couple of pages?

[Menalque]

like the attempts to coalesce around the team being either "mena + Titus" or "wooper + LL" is wrong I think

Not sure why Homura got cleared, regardless of anyone else's alignment.

do you not think homura is townie? I think homura became for more townie a couple of pages ago when she was talking to me/LL

[Menalque]

yeah, check his iso

[Menalque]

Spoiler:

@Menalque, convince me LL is red.

@Everyone, still waiting to hear why TSE is green.

@Homura, would you lynch everyone outside of your town pool?

Sunday might be fine if that works for everyone?

@Menal, problem is I don't see Wooper + Titus and chance on homura + wooper I think is also on the lower side. Big problem for me this game is that I have no meta to go off on, so I'm kind of evaluating all of you on face value and votes, especially the last part is just looking too good for Wooper, unless LL is really red.

Now Homura finally started to give off some towny vibes to me, so I do like that.

LL is making points that feel very valid to me, the only red thing about LL is that he feels too sure about his reads and I don't think I can lynch him, just on that.

@homura @cjv @wooper , how likely do you think titus + LL is?

VOTE: Menalque

This is L-1

I think if Menalque v LL is TvT we won't win this game btw, but we'll see.

I can't go into detail right now, but with the solutions that are presented and are realistic in my eyes are LL + Wooper or Menal + Titus. I'm not looking at Titus + Wooper, that just doesn't make any sense and I don't understand why you would ever opt that. I've been trying to get people to talk about 'obvious town' TSE but no one is actually responding to that, so be it, guess CJ is out of the picture today. Homura has been very 0 for me during D1 but yesterday this slots questioning felt pretty towny. Anyway I don't think Wooper is ever the lynch here, CJ is left alone. Honestly rn I'm just thinking about LL + Wooper and Menal + Titus, and since this 1v1 has developed it has become almost inevitable that we lynch either one of them. If we don't do it, the same thing will continue D3 if we don't hit red and that wouldn't get us any further. The reason I'm voting Menal over LL is because I think didn't like both of your predecessors, I don't think your solutions are likely and I've generally liked LL since D1.

I might go into more detail later as to why I like LL over Menal, but unless LL is willing to reconsider Menal D3 I just think this is the best option.

Ah I might just be stupid, never mind.

this is really bad no?

[Menalque]

I'm actually kind of thinking crush + wooper rn

[Menalque]

like I think I could have given QQ a pass too easily for just being really out there when he was here but if that was a personality thing then it wasn't AI necessarily

[Menalque]

ducky and I are gonna have to have another one of those post game

talks

if he's town here because I don't understand what's stopped him from dealing with me in good faith all game in a way that I know he's capable of even when we're conflicting quite hard

[Menalque]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=81654

@Titus, do you think the duck is interacting to me similarly here as to this game or is he being more unreasonable?

[Menalque]

Subject: Micro 909: 09:12 (Game Over!)

You’re going to read me off that day play yeah?

yes
you shitting on my skill level isn't making me want to bother rereading your ISO, if you feel entitled to a better read get on with the game and don't be bratty. :/

like I was being really horrible to him here and he was still making posts like this to me even after that and before I apologised

[Menalque]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

this is another towngame ducky has with me in which he finds me frustrating (seems par for the course) and I get pissed off with him for not town reading me but being paranoid

[Menalque]

can people say if they think his approach to my slot this game has been similar or not?

[Menalque]

Subject: Newbie 1980 | Game Over

It also doesn’t feel like it’s cheeky’s respect for my scumgame if this is a shitpush given that we’ve never played together before

in this situation I tenddddd to try and work out whether I'm biased (usually yes) and if so lean into checking my opinion against other people; having a convo like "hey eth0s cheeky seemed {towny, nullish, w/e} to me but her push right now looks like it's in pretty bad faith - am I going crazy or is this really loudlandish and scummy?" can advance the way her slot is analysed a lot.

I don't have a strong understanding for your scumgame either btw, nor do I have a super vivid grasp on your towngame - I've created a baseline for "menalque's scumrange" largely based on how self-aware and socially adept you are. I might have worded that better as "respect for your social intelligence/range", rather than explicitly "respect for your scumgame".

like stuff like this for instance

wooper is SRing me but instead of actually checking his possible biases he's mostly just gone "nah mena you don't feel like town here" and then been relying on LL there. if LL is actually town then this is quite plausibly scum!wooper hiding behind that to push me.

I also would like to know exactly how much more confident he is in identifying my scum game vs 2 months ago where he talks about being very uncertain on it vs here where he's been very positive about it

[Menalque]

if I may say, it's also slightly mad for anyone to be scum reading me based purely on how much effort I've put into this game. like I struggle to effort my scum games even when I'm in them from the beginning, and while I've improved I don't think I've necessarily improved to "making 200 posts in 4 days" level of fake effort

[Menalque]

I'm actually kind of thinking crush + wooper rn

Really me + wooper? Friendly reminder that de D1 Cheeky lynch only didn't happen because TSE moved last minute, you think I, as an inexperienced mafia player, would de ok lynching my mafia partner D1? Literally anyone + me and I would've been ok with you suggesting me as mafia, but you pick the most unlikely combination just because you want to lynch Wooper and somehow want to fit me in there.

how do you figure that? looking back in plot's ISO the wagon went directly from phoenix top wagon -> Karnage top wagon

why does that show you "being okay with lynching your partner"?

also, can you please explain your LL townread?

[Menalque]

also Titus, for christsake, please stop misspelling my name

[Menalque]

it's like every game

[Menalque]

can you just explain to me now in plain English what you think has been towny about LL

doesn't have to be super in depth, I wanna see where your head is at

[Menalque]

I'll try to go back and look for the L-1 on cheeky moment, bc it was short enough that it was missed in VCs

[Menalque]

I’m okay with dying here so long as wooper is always lynched tomorrow

[Menalque]

newbies: I'm going to flip town, so this post is more to be read after the fact. This game is probably going to be a loss, sorry. When things seem in stasis like this, it means things are probably going well for scum, because the gamestate -- the general way people are pushing, activity levels in the thread etc -- is quite static. In general, scum are aiming for a gamestate where they're in control, where they get to direct which mislynches happen in order to set up for an optimal lylo situation. If you're town, what you should be doing is trying to interrogate the gamestate and be active and probing. Part of the reason this game is going so badly for town is because most people are being super passive. I'm active, wooper and LL are active, and homura has been active to a slightly lesser extent.

The lack of content from ceejay, Titus, and crush is killing the game because it means there's not any fresh insight coming through, and it's also meaning that in the case that most of this is TvT then scum are able to simply blend into the background with inactive town players.

This game should also serve as a warning to the risk of allowing ego players (I should be included in this to an extent) to be allowed to have too much control on the gamestate. If LL is scum, then he's being allowed to have a disproportionate influence on where mislynches are directed. If town, then he's being allowed to have a disproportionate impact on where mislynches are directed. I still mostly think he's scum but it's very hard to check this when people aren't willing to talk to me about what they're seeing in his content that's town and break it down for me.

In general, trying to work off the backs of those who have good read accuracy is better than following the (proven to be bad) reads of someone who you think is town, or the reads of everyone averaged together. So far LL has scumread and pushed only town (phoe, Karnage, me) and therefore even if you think he is town, you should stop trusting his reads as time goes on. Obviously, it's harder to know who to trust as time goes on without a scumflip because you can't be sure who's reads have been accurate up to this point.

Final points: be aware that reads that are too accurate from too little can be scum!indicative for a person and show they're bussing rather than truly solving, and finally if you're in lylo be aware that scum generally have a plan and aren't just chancing it. that means they've brought someone along who they think they can mislynch, and someone along who they think is willing to vote that mislynch. if you find yourself there, try to think about whether you've been set for the mislynch OR more crucially, if there's a person who looks like obvscum to you who you've wanted to lynch for days, if you're the person who's been brought to cast the game losing vote on the mislynch.

If I’m green then please just remember this and always lynch wooper tomorrow

[Menalque]

Cool then let’s lynch you and when you flip red we can finish solving the game

[Menalque]

Oh, and double check titus in f3 if wooper is red

I think she’s town and it’s just crush but like to be safe

[Menalque]

fr i'm l-1 and i've been the nearly uncontested lead wagon nearly all day loooooool
like i have absolutely no illusion about how likely i am to be lynched here
it's still a mislynch

Lol are you kidding

I’ve looked like the mislynch basically all day