Open 774 || Purgatory — Game Over

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aay.

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VOTE: Elmo

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Who's in it? i don't know all the heads

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the more prudent question, and the one that was asked, is what are all of the heads!

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the more prudent question, and the one that was asked, is what are all of the heads!

We are all town!

Except for

Raven

, she's a bit out there at times.

-Summer

This is a non-answer!

Kindly provide an answer!

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Thank you!

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It's not that S_S's wagon is bad, per se. But Elmo has already committed the cardinal scumtell.

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You're the one who saw it and led the wagon on her!

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look amrun i'm banking on you having a good reason here so if you can fabricate one it'd be useful

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I'm just going to continue assuming amrun has some hidden ironclad reason that elmo is scum, and projecting that read outward.

Doesn't apply to me, sadly.

I do not especially like this as a response.

Fair enough.

Nor this.

[implosion]

What's unsatisfactory about their responses?

I wouldn't say unsatisfactory. That's a bit too strong.

Unrelatedly, it would be useful if more of the people that are town started making it obvious

[implosion]

No, Enter is my biggest fan, but he represses his feelings.

I read this setup for like the fourth time, and I think this has to be the most scumsided setup in the approved open setup lists? It's delightful

It's probably pretty scumsided. But it should be mitigated by the nightlessness.

[implosion]

I imagine it's quite significantly less. Might be a nice exercise to calculate.

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Actually thinking more there's another factor canceling that out, which is that judgment days cause more people to be sent to hell than to heaven (a judgment day essentially replaces a heaven phase). Might make a monte carlo later (mostly out of laziness) but class is almost over so alas~

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actually monte carlo is stupid there's 9 choose 3 possible setups lol.

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ANYWAY.

Amrun's vote on me does not sit well w/ me.

There are only like 2 people that i even want to call town and i don't even have good reasons for them. This needs to be fixed.

[implosion]

ANYWAY.

Amrun's vote on me does not sit well w/ me.

There are only like 2 people that i even want to call town and i don't even have good reasons for them. This needs to be fixed.

Why?

Assuming this is asking about the vote not sitting well, it feels quite like a "look like i'm doing something" vote. I don't really like the sidestepping of engaging with me after my comment in 58.

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i mean, i don't really especially think amrun is scum

How is that a sidestep? I explicitly said I did not have a hidden agenda voting for Elmo. Your insistence and assumption that I did is what struck me off at all. If you didn’t see what you assumed I saw, why vote with me at all?

I was being facetious, and was at least trying to be obvious about that.

I do actually scumread elmo, though. Not strongly or anything. I didn't really like her RVS, the post above this one is also just a bit... meh. It's not really advancing the gamestate at all to just say that the hydra is confusing her, though of course I understand the annoyance w/ people still being afk from the game.

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eh. I guess I can call S_S town.

the hydra is probably going to be eternally null for me which is a bit awkward given this setup.

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...pardon me? I do have a vote down, and I’ve explicitly said I don’t really have a material scumread on amrun at this point.

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I don’t really have a material scumread on amrun at this point.

These seems like an excuse for a vote that's obviously not RVS.

-Raven

i have no idea what this sentence means.

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@Team STRQ: I’m actually also confused by what you’re saying - implo is clearly voting me?

what?????
i'm not????

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Comfortable with being lynched for it, but I need PKP (or their replacement) to post at least once before I take this game seriously. Consider it a safeguard against lurkscum.

this is uh, probably a townpost?

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Omg lol you’re not. I thought you were. Why aren’t you?

I have now elaborated twice that I don't really scumread you >.>

I do scumread Elmo.

Why is it town?

Not a post that I see scum having any material motivation to post, it's too brazen to be from scum who cares how what they say is perceived. The "safeguard against lurkscum" thing is too on the nose of being somewhat hypocritical for me to imagine coming from scum, as well.

What's your take on the post?

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i also don't even really disagree with that reading of amrun's vote on me as townish. Idk what i think of her so far on the whole.

Don't waste your time; it's NAI. I do it as either town or scum because I hate lurky players.

Do you happen to have cases where you've made similar posts as scum? if not then no worries

[implosion]

Two things scummy about implosion:

the hydra is probably going to be eternally null for me which is a bit awkward given this setup.

This strikes me as really scummy. On the one hand it has its own implausibility since it's very unlikely none of the heads are someone implosion can easily read. On the other hand there's lots of benefit for scum!implosion to put it forth and not as much for town!implosion, scum!implosion is excused from tedious fakesorting with sliprisk.

It's mostly just complaining. I've historically had bad times with hydras, and I don't really know how to read any of the people in the hydra in particular either. Not everything I say is for "benefit" in some way. And I'm certainly going to *try* to sort them; I just somewhat doubt I'll ever land anywhere I feel good about. I very vaguely want to call them town right now but there's no real substance behind my reasons.

The second thing is that his pattern of interaction with me seems to match the time he was scum in G&R and I'm not connecting this to his wincon really, just a naïve pattern matching angle.
[/color][/spoiler]

How so?

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For reference both pops and STRQ are currently in some kind of category like "I kind of want to townread them, but don't really feel good about cementing that". Though I don't think pops's vote on me is bad.

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Iirc you didn't interact with me much early in D1 of G&R and stated a read on me at the end of the day phase.

All I remember doing toward you that game is like, hard townreading you all game? Which I think was me trying to emulate the read that I thought I'd have as town, iirc.

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Oh also the "one scum in me/amrun/elmo" thing is absurd and i feel like i shouldn't need to explain why . If my math is right, the statement "these three people contain exactly 1 scum" has a >50% chance of being right even if you pick the people completely at random, so the statement isn't even saying all that much, but it's also just not something that I can possibly imagine there actually being enough material yet to actually accurately draw the conclusion of with >random chance.

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reminder to self: use :X and not

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oh wait it was me/pops/amrun FROM elmo. or w/e. Point is made.

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tbh, me liking pops's vote on me might be the old bias i've always had of hating people who vote me with bad reasons resurfacing. It's been a long time since I've actually played a game on ms and I don't really feel like it's all that justified for me to have as many votes as I do; I'm like, one of three people who has been actively doing things. I guess at this point that number is probably more like 5. -shrug-.

Actually I don't really dislike any of the votes on me per se. It'd just be nice if people could like... stop and pick better targets? bc i think 2/3-3/3 of the people voting me right now are town. Amrun's iso is maybe better than I'm giving it credit for, 111 is pretty okay. Wooper is maybe the worst but it's still not that bad. I guess the worst thing about his vote is the voting me and then putting some other completely unrelated stuff in the post with the vote feels a bit off? but shrug.

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Amrun, what do you make of Elmo's vote on you?

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I think implo is the type to think about optics even as town. He's a very messed up person. He buys Apotheosis from the store.

Yeah i won't lie and say i wasn't thinking about optics a little when i called my wagon town >.>

i was kind of just over being voted which is dumb because being voted is what often gives me motivation to actually get off my ass etc.

Got distracted today and now kind of have to do work; if there's anything pressing that's occurred point it out bc i've skimmed most of it.

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I don't buy wooper scum rn. He's probably within what I imagine his scum range is but I just don't really feel it, his interaction with the thread feels like what I'd expect from town. I'm also probably wrong on elmo.

I'm becoming sort of vaguely skeptical of pops being town and i want someone to give me their convincing take on Amrun-scum because i might be able to be convinced of that at this point? idk more to come

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so like, my EXTREMELY WEAK poe pool right now is amrun/pops/homura. I swear i will put significant effort into looking at stuff between now and going to sleep

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WRT Elmo I need to sort of actively anti-bias myself bc she has the kind of posting style that I sometimes scumread erroneously for style. I like 328 and 336. Calling the hydra obvtown after saying she agreed with me that the hydra would be annoying to read, and that kind of rhetoric, just isn't really a scum arc imo. I think that's a pretty strong tell.

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Wooper, STRQ I'd say I feel generally alright about; I don't really buy the things people were saying about Wooper, the amount of shade that he's gotten relative to the way he's played the game feels... suspect perhaps (though i haven't double checked who was throwing that shade/shrug), and eh. I like his read arc on me I like his talk about himself. It's just overall pretty alright idk.

S_S maybe I'm wrong about actually! I don't really remember why I thought he was town other than like the "glad this game is nightless" comment in the first post and yeah that's not actually strong. He could actually be scum, who's to say.

Looker I still feel pretty good about calling town. I don't really get the sense of caring about perception, both tonally and in terms of like, how he's interacting with the thread.

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Amrun gives me a really vague sense of taking stances to take stances. Like the discussion of Wooper in 376 (maybe bad example but eh), the justification in the post with her STRQ vote, 269 is maybe a good example, the arc on Wooper feels just a bit contrived and the elmo coment feels like, like it's just a thing being thrown out there because it can be, idk. I'm confident I'm explaining this poorly and a big reason is soft PoE. I also like the wagon comp on her right now. Consider my vote spiritually on her but no need to L-1 just yet.

Unvote

Pops there's like no way in hell i'll be able to adequately explain how I feel about the slot. I guess I felt like she was obvtown in the game where I was scum that she's referenced and I'm not sure I feel that way now? But also that's terrible meta to use since I was scum in that game and it was like forever ago and I don't have any recent games period so shrug, shrug; shrug.

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i wonder what pops's cheeky comment on my previous post is going to be so i'm going to preempt it with this post!

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i don't even remember! It was like, twenty years ago.

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six.

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eight?

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I hate them too, Elmo! I'm glad we can agree on stuff. We should hydra some time.

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I dont totally love how he's losing engagement but I also kinda think scum!implosion makes more of this gamestate.

My losing engagement was basically a direct function of what day of the week it was. Had a homework due last night.

VOTE: Amrun

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Many factors are converging to make me believe there is at least one scum in {pops, wooper}. One such reason is that it's taken this long for someone to FoS me for being noncommittal, meaning scum haven't wanted to do it for some reason.

There are many possible reasons but the easiest one is that they (or at least some of them) know me too well to be able to get away with that.

Oddly I don't like this post all that much! Or at least it makes me feel things and I'm not sure how I want to classify those things.

[implosion]

I specifically made a reads list that challenged your stances because I had a strong feeling that a town!duck would take that as a good opportunity to try to sort my slot directly,

This is kinda... not how discourse works in practice?

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I'm very skeptical that hyper defensiveness in general would be a trait associated strongly w/ scum!duck. Maybe in the context of this game but still skeptical.

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go ahead and tell me how to get wooper to engage into me then, because at that point I gain literally nothing from engaging into him

-Summer

Which post exactly is the reads list you were referring to?

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yeah a list of people without any reasoning or questions or literally anything isn't really an invitation to engage... it's just an "i think you're scum".

If I see those two posts and I'm wooper, and I'm town and think you're somewhat scummy already, I don't really see that as any reason to engage, I'd just talk about you to other people.

[implosion]

Case in point:

I've just dropped another bunch of reads you're welcome to engage with.

Wooper said this and you told him to cut the bullshit... like, sure if you feel that way, but you're BOTH just talking past each other.

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(sure there's other things in that post but etc)

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Meh. I guess I just don't really see it.

Do you have any other people that you feel decent about reads on? How do you feel about Amrun right now?

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@S_S: would you say that, generally, it is within your scumrange to make a post where you describe exactly where you exited your scumrange?

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yeah i'm not really interested in shunting SS off in either direction rn, I think he's one of the easier people to read in the long term even if I have some conflicting feelings atm.

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Amrun just hasn't said anything really interesting in the past while. Like, 503 has plenty of words in it but no words that I really care about. It's a very personal read of Wooper that I can't really come around to easily, and it just feels like... doing stuff. It doesn't really make me want to townread her. It's like, I'm not really getting the sense from her ISO that she's going through posts in the thread and seeing things that pique her interest that she wants to delve into; it feels like she's looking at the thread to find the things she has to deal with, dealing with those things, and then not really doing much else.

Case in point:

I've just dropped another bunch of reads you're welcome to engage with.

Wooper said this and you told him to cut the bullshit... like, sure if you feel that way, but you're BOTH just talking past each other.

So what do you think this says about their alignments?

I've said I think they're both town, Wooper more strongly. I don't think the talking past each other necessarily says much about their alignments on its own, though it certainly is something that can be characteristic of TvT as some have pointed out.

Why ask me this? Do you think I'm going to say that I think it makes one or both of them scum? From what I can tell, the two of them are your two biggest scumreads right now (give you're voting STRQ and you're devoting most of your words against Wooper), so surely you have some perspective on them being at each others' throats? The fact that you ask me this instead of like, giving your own opinions in this case, just kind of feels like you're engaging to engage rather than on the things that should be most pertinent given the view of the gamestate that you have here as town. Unless I've missed something.

[implosion]

I can't do this anymore.

Vote: Team STRQ

At this point No.

Is this a policy vote, or do you think the hydra is scum?

This is also, like, a little weird of a question to ask someone who just voted for the same person as you. At least a little, or at least it's not the kind of thing I can ever remember thinking when seeing someone vote with me. Also kind of feels like engaging to engage at that.

[implosion]

spicy.

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Town: Elmo, Wooper, Looker. Scum: Amrun, Ame.

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Hard-ish disagree and also post 613 w/ like one hot minute left in day one is an interesting time to discuss optimal strategy.

If we mess up and send one scum to heaven, then the odds of us winning become much, *much* lower.

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The natural people to send to heaven are those that have some combination of the qualities:

-consensus townread
-if that consensus townread is wrong, people that it's better to know now than later
-if not consensus townread, someone that we need a flip for
-we trust their reads
-they aren't someone we want to keep around to contribute to the thread more
-we think they'll be able to work with other townies in heaven

etc. It's not one thing, it's a combination of a lot of qualities.

[implosion]

Actually it could depend on if we hit scum today. If we hit hit town today then it's less harmful to send scum to heaven; if we hit scum today we DEFINITELY want to send town to heaven, because we won't be hitting a judgment day any time soon and we want as many scum left as possible to send to hell.

[implosion]

i am somewhat bored x:

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ya i just still don't see anything that makes me want to not flip amrun. shrug.

Ame spending like, an absurd amount of effort to justify Looker-Town is like, a little weird? I don't think it's the most uh, controversial viewpoint? Looker has no votes. Idk. It's an easy thing to talk a lot about sure but I'm not sure why Ame chose to put so much goddamn time into it in particular.

[implosion]

the scum incentive is that they're genuine arguments that are easy to make, and that you can look engaged while making because it's the kind of thing you genuinely enjoy talking about as town, and it looks nice on paper.

[implosion]

and now i'm sleeping and should be here a little bit before deadline but i'm not going to change because it's plurality and i'm stubborn like that!!

[implosion]

i am slightly livid.

[implosion]

@Amrun: I'm not trying to dissuade you from engaging with the game or anything. Your responses just don't do anything to assuage my scumread on you. The responses are certainly logically valid, but they don't really disarm the underlying reasons for my reads, such as the way you're interacting with the thread, the way your reads have been forming and the specific questions you've been choosing to ask relative to those reads, and so on.

@Not-Amrun: if I'm right that Amrun is scum, it is essentially a guarantee of at most 1 scum on the Amrun wagon. This would be Ame or no one. In particular this is making me somewhat re-evaluate my Ame read, but it's still entirely Ame is just the scum off the Wooper wagon and that two were on it.

I really do think the Wooper wagon was atrocious. I really don't know how a town sensibly comes to the decision to go with him here. I should have fought it harder so I'm not really *complaining* per se. But right now It's more than a little tempting to just condemn the whole wagon sans Elmo. It would surprise me if there aren't 2-3 scum on it; if Amrun is town then this goes out the window a bit but right now an Amrun townflip would be tantamount to needing to rethink the whole game for me right now.

[implosion]

The candidates to heaven for me right now would be:

-Elmo. This is sort of the default decision to me because if Elmo is scum then we absolutely need to know it now IMO for wagon analysis, and if not then well, town.
-Me. I am more or less fine with this if people want it.
-uhhhh.... looker??? idk who else i really would want to.

I'm not interested in S_S for reasons previously mentioned. He's the only one off the wagons which is essentially meaningless to his alignment, so a flip on him would actually be useful! So maybe, idk.

[implosion]

Wooper this is what I don't get

You agreed with me on pops all day

Then when we're like consolidating on amrun you're like

"hey let's pick a fight with STRQ"

like I don't get why you would do this as town dude

I see your reads and tbh I have doubts, I feel like I vibe with you on Ame

but wtf is with your play here?

-Q

This is such an awful post to make 4 minutes before deadline when you're claiming to be fighting with another head over whether to hammer Wooper. Like, what the fuck is this actually.

How is this how you treat a slot that you are condemning to death? How do you think that picking a random fight with someone is *SCUM*-indicative when someone is about to die??? How the hell is that scum-indicative??? How do you see someone picking a random fight with someone as they're about to die and say "oh, there's no way town has incentive to do this, but it makes total sense for scum to"???

[implosion]

Another note - I felt like there was so, SO, so much resistance to the Amrun wagon. Like the entire time.

[implosion]

The trick is to just not mess up tomorrow!!!

I actually really feel like this game is at the stage where it is nearly fully solvable.

Elmo is obvtown. Looker is obvtown. People generally seem to trust I'm town.

If those are all correct then like, we're basically almost there. I'm basically happy to just litigate further to be more sold on those two people being in the realm of "never kill these people" and then just moving on to PoE from there. Like, imagine we had 3 innocent children in this situation - we'd have a (i think?) guaranteed winning strategy by heavening someone outside of those 3 and then just helling the other 4 non-ICs one at a time.

[implosion]

I actually kind of feel like I should have gotten something more town-indicative from town-S_S at this point, maybe. I could be totally wrong about that but I feel like I might be nearing a sort of immaterial deadline by which I need to call him scummy if I haven't sorted him as town. I'm not claiming to be good at reading him per se, I just feel like I should have sorted him by now. Hopefully he says something useful in response to this.

[implosion]

This VC probably had 3 town on the Amrun wagon. No one else showed any signs of jumping on to it, iirc. That isn't the meta-behavior of a ML wagon. Then wooper unvoted, then pops joined and then left. Then this morning Wooper and Ame both joined again... then both left again.

[implosion]

Essentially the resistance is "all of the people that stayed on the wagon consistently were town, and the other people (pops and ame) joined and left w/ the wind."

(Actually this might make me think Ame is town, need to think more on this)

[implosion]

I seem to recall someone mentioning this as the optimal strategy and certain other person hard-ish disagreeing

To be clear: I don't think we should actually literally do this. Just have it in mind as "good townreads are really valuable". This is true for any nightless game.

[implosion]

The reason that I didn't really find value in the Looker thing is bc he was already town; but I might be changing my mind on it having no value now : x

[implosion]

Essentially I've come around to agreeing with you on some stuff since I was complaining about those things, at least to some extent. (@Ame).

[implosion]

Another note - I felt like there was so, SO, so much resistance to the Amrun wagon. Like the entire time.

I got to a point where I was making a vote before sleep.
And I wanted the hydra dead but ya know. We all can't have our wishes.

If anything it is actually convenient having you having been on the wagon because it narrows down who the scum on the wagon was a bit... I think.

[implosion]

Okay. The towncore is me, Elmo, Looker and Ame I think. 5th town is probably either S_S or pops; Amrun and STRQ are scum.

That's how I think I'm feeling right now. Someone convince me I'm wrong on something.

[implosion]

If you think you were vibing with his posts then you just haven't seen enough scum duck to know that this is *exactly* how he plays scum

counterpoint

Wooper, Vanilla Townie , has been damned to Hell.

[implosion]

if this is *exactly* how he plays scum and he flipped town, then it is *you* who does not understand his meta...

but i digress. That's not the important point. I'm just a bit tilted with duck getting lynched.

I had doubts and Enter wanted to hammer Amrun but duck seemed so far away from my experiences playing with him in town in any of the last three times I've played with him that I didn't want to let him get away

If you get a chance, give some more detail about how exactly intra-hydra communication worked near deadline. Or do you just mean Enter talking about wanting to hammer Amrun in thread, and you weren't communicating about it outside of the thread?

[implosion]

but seriously, the argument "if you read him correctly this game then you just don't understand his meta" is tilting as fuck.

[implosion]

A brief digression: why Ame is actually super town. Exhibit A:

I definitely am, I can't believe what I've been missing!

@pops @amrun @all would you be willing to go S_S? I feel like wooper is a better heaven flip via the strategy I mentioned. S_S has done seriously nothing. This is my top choice, but enough people have scum read or had amrun on the periphery that I think she's also solid choice. I need to sleep now, but I should be on a few hours before the deadline to maneuver my vote where needed.

(btw I spent at least a minute looking for one of S_S's posts to iso, having forgotten he changed his avatar smh)

This post is pretty self-evidently fantastic after Wooper flipped town. Even if S_S is also town, Ame going out of their way to both derail Wooper momentum, and push Wooper as an ideal heaven 1 target, is a hard sell for scum. Listing S_S as a first choice and Amrun as a second choice is good, as I am pretty doubtful they're both town by numbers (though I suppose if they were both town then it'd certainly increase Ame's scum equity at that point). But like, the trajectory of saying "this is the optimal strategy" and then proposing action based on that strategy that is, in fact, furthering the town win condition, is a tricky sell to see scum doing often.

This is probably the weakest piece of why I think Ame is town, though. Exhibit B, and by far the better evidence for their being town:

Spoiler: multiquote

VOTE: Amrun

Last check in before deadline. On the train and surprisingly refreshed.

I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that both am and wooper are scum. woopers initial am case didn't really make sense and one the points he used to town read Elmo was based on the reverse logic that am was scum. That being said, I think he's been pushing her enough that it's less likely distancing than is. And I prefer to keep him since he has been actively engaged whereas Am has been more on the periphery.

( Sorry if wrong Am I honestly just haven't had the time to thoroughly dig into you :[ )

Boop

VOTE: STRQ

idk exactly the scum motivation but it feels slimy, maybe trying to avoid the appearance of TMI? I'm not sure what the agenda is I just know that thought process felt wrong

-Q

THIS MAKES NO SENSE

He is already dead on plurality, I won't hammer

Will you hammer Am if we switch back?

VOTE: Amrun

A few things here. One, the "last check in before deadline" followed by then doing more stuff before deadline is probably a very rare thing to see from scum in a vacuum. Two, this combined with the fact that they changed a vote to STRQ then back to Amrun is a very interesting thing to consider - why would scum-Ame do this? Presumably if scum-Ame wanted the lynch to be Amrun, then they'd have just... y'know, left their vote on Amrun and not checked in again before deadline like they said they would. But instead we get a vote somewhere else, then a vote back to Amrun. If Ame is scum who wants Amrun to be lynched I don't understand why they have the motivation to check back into the thread like this when the primary alternative is Wooper or possibly STRQ, who they voted for... if Ame is scum who didn't want Amrun to be lynched then I have absolutely no idea why Ame voted Amrun at the last second. This would be an *incredibly* elaborate bus, and if Amrun is town then like, it's such a flagrant thing to do. Not like, flagrantly anything, just flagrant. Too flagrant for scum to do. The existence of trying to collaborate with people in the last moments of the day as well. If Amrun is scum, then Ame is like, fully locktown from this. If Amrun is town I'd still put Ame as like, quite damn town for it.

[implosion]

Unrelated to all that, I also don't mind the way Ame interacted with me when I was brushing them off at all. The irkedness/flusteredness but still reaching out to try to explain shit to me in 695 is exemplary of this.

[implosion]

(maybe flustered is a mischaracterization but I think it's visible what I'm getting at)

[implosion]

I'm potentially for heavening Ame if Ame is okay with it. If Ame flipped scum I'd have to rethink Amrun.

[implosion]

Right now I'm thinking Am as the best course of action.

Is this cheeky third-person or are you going to make me sad

[implosion]

i'll hammer am if it let's wooper live

VOTE: Amrun #yolo again

VOTE: Amrun

gonna put your money where your mouth is qt

no hammer = strq scum

At the point of STRQs post, wooper was going to be lynched, so from the perspective of AM-STRQ why would Stark make this statement just to not follow through? It just makes an unnecessary association. I understand that townStark is claiming it was a disagreement between heads, but I don't see the point of it if it's scumStark with scumAm. This leads me to think it was intentionally made to draw an association between the two (I've forgotten what the term for this is).

I'm not yet fully sold on STRQ-scum.

I agree this is at least a point of evidence against them being scum together. I think it's possible it could possibly be explained away by hydra disagreements on how to play, though.

[implosion]

What's your degree of sold-ness on STRQ scum/most compelling reasons?

[implosion]

long-ass day yesterday.

Implosion: Can you follow me through your read progression on Elmo? I'm also not vibing with the idea Amrun was a resisted wagon based off voting patterns, both you and Looker remained their through half of Hell1, and she was the day's longest running wagon.

WRT Elmo: see 384. Her interaction with the thread in general since then doesn't reek of agenda or really anything that makes me think scum; the irritation with Looker (e.g. 947) is a good example of this. The way in which she's complained about the hydra I mentioned initially putting me off but the consistency of it reads as genuine annoyance at having a slot that she thinks is annoying to sort/deal with as town. Initially I thought her RVS was slightly bad, voted her without anyone else I really wanted to; then realized all this.

WRT Amrun: you're precisely right. Me and Looker, probably both town, remained on the wagon for half a day phase and it never actually took off after that... that's literally the definition of a resisted wagon.

[implosion]

(where "never actually took off" means no one else ever actually committed to it until deadline scramble, and again, I think the people who were on her are at deadline were all town)

[implosion]

I actually thought I didn't have anything nearly this recent but I actually do have a pretty representative towngame and scumgame from ~a year ago.

town
scum

[implosion]

I'm still waiting for Elmo to engage with me more, but I was not satisfied with their replies to me so far. The consistent annoyance about this hydra could come from scum trying to minimize a slot with multiple voices, and is harder to predict. That's the basis of quite a few grievance's against this slot from what I've understood, or at least one's that have been brought up to me.

So you think Looker-Elmo interactions this past page or so are T/T?

And what do you think of the votes on Amrun that weren't present at deadline? {Ame, Wooper, popsofctown}

I've been quite explicit about my reads, and they have not really changed since then. I still feel quite good about all of Ame, Looker, and Elmo. I don't think that specifically *annoyance* is the tactic of someone trying to "minimize a slot with multiple voices".

[implosion]

I could easily be wrong on one of those people, etc. Or more! I'm not perfect! But I don't see any reason at all to change those reads yet.

[implosion]

Incidentally I'm curious how much we actually should care about heavening town here, from an EV perspective. Made a quick and dirty program; it says if we heaven scum today, our EV is 20%. If we heaven town, 40%. So uh. Maybe we should not do this just to sort someone?

I might have fucked up the program because it was VERY quick and dirty but.

[implosion]

Actually I almost certainly fucked *SOMETHING* up here. gimme a hot minute.

[implosion]

oh man after un-fucking it up it's giving me 20% if we heaven scum and *48%* if we heaven town.

[implosion]

And actually writing out the branches of what could happen this makes sense.

If we heaven town, sure we get a judgment day sooner... but our odds of losing in that judgment day are, on the whole, ~1/4 (we'd have to mis-hell tomorrow AND misjudge in judgment day). And even if we hit town in the hell phase and then succeed the judgment day, which is obviously (i think?) worse than just hitting scum in the hell phase, we'd be left with 1 scum in hell, 0 scum in heaven, and 5 people alive, 2 of whom are scum... this gives us extremely good odds of winning because we get to hell someone and then judge someone, and if EITHER of those people are scum, we win, for odds of 1 - (3/5)(2/4) = 70%.

If we heaven scum, then tomorrow, even if we hell scum, the game continues and we have to avoid heavening the other scum... twice. If we hell town, then we go into 6 alive heaven phase with 2 scum alive and 1 in heaven... and from there we HAVE to heaven town, and if we DO then we get to a hell phase where we have 5 alive, 2 of whom are scum, and we have to get BOTH of those two people into hell to win.

[implosion]

Essentially, all of this is making me think the utmost important criterion is to heaven town today. Secondarily, it should be someone who, if they flip scum, would force the game to reassess everything... but that should go hand in hand with it being someone we are confident is town.

Basically I was thinking S_S or pops could be a good idea but I don't feel good about that anymore.

I want me or Ame, or possibly Looker, but probably me or Ame.

[implosion]

893

[implosion]

i don't know if i'd really bucket myself in any given way like that.

my scum game is predominantly centered around emulating my town game in that manner, so pure style of logic/etc is a bad way to try to read me unless you think i'm emulating it poorly.

[implosion]

Do you have those as exact fractions? I don't want to post the code here because i deeply do not want to turn this mafia game into a litigation of code. But it is *entirely* plausible that my numbers are wrong. To be clear I coded it up *entirely* between posts 1045 and 1047, so i literally spent 20 minutes on it. I used the logic that we can randomly permute the 7 players left alive after heavening, and then assume that any time we need to heaven/hell someone we pick the next unused person on the list.

[implosion]

Also pops, if you think looker/ame/elmo are all town... do you think that i, as scum, spend literally 100% of my time today proselytizing those three people as town?

[implosion]

VOTE: implosion

[implosion]

i'm willing to accept that there's a decent chance it is literally strq/amrun/s_s. I'm kind of forced to practice what I preach and call 1077 a town post from pops. If it isn't literally those 3 then i'll probably have to rethink not just a little. But tis life.

[implosion]

unvote

[implosion]

I just barely have anything else to say right now :\

[implosion]

I'm happy to go and am also happy for Ame to go if Ame is happy to go.

[implosion]

I'm just waiting for Ame to wrap up whatever they want to do.

[implosion]

Alright. I guess this gives me something to do (namely reckon over whether Elmo is town). I'll do that... maybe tomorrow, maybe tonight, who knows!

[implosion]

An elmo ISO-turned-train-of-thought.

STRQ Does bring a good point up in 93 about town blocs. Amrun is reading town. I really don't like 94 from pops it just feels sorta forced like here's my vote and I don't have much reason because I town read the other

Not sure how often this is scum->scum+scum wrt STRQ/Amrun.

Looker come on man. 4 posts in 4ish pages and you have said. Not much if anything at all... What's going on

I kind of like this. Reads as genuine "please contribute to the game if you're town" frustration, not trying to call him scummy for it at all, just wanting people to play, which is townish.

So, a major thing is I'm reading this in the universe of Ame's current scumteam of elmo/amrun/strq, and I just... don't know if I buy that universe. Elmo voted Amrun, and then kept on her and pressured her until eventually switching to STRQ out of policy. Switching from a bus to a different bus on a policy vote seems a bit out there; mostly the voting STRQ off of policy seems out there to me as a scum->scum interaction. The fact that she switched near deadline and then didn't do anything is kind of bad. But like, in this universe the Wooper wagon had all 3 scum on it. Totally possible sure but idk.

In d2 there's posts like...

Then make your vote stick with it and let's move on with the day. The fact that you have to pull "I've played with so many alts. Just yeah. Don't trust me my votes on pops the only read I trust. Amrun I still feel is scum and yeah notice the hydra has been quiet.

and

Here's all you need.
Pops
Ss
Ame
Looker/imp
Hydra
Amrun.

Ame I have some faith in pops is the only one I trust.

Like, is that REALLY scum-elmo saying "yeah i trust this one townie, i think SCUMPARTNER1 is still scum and SCUMPARTNER2 is lookin' sus as well. In this setup where Elmo has said that she wants to stay on earth (and will therefore be voting for things), and where it's effectively white flag? I just don't see scum bussing this much in a setup like this. If I'm scum in this setup I'm happy to distance but I'm terrified to commit to a bus, and that's what Elmo is doing if she's scum with Amrun *or* STRQ. She's been consistent in her arc on each of them, calling Amrun scum the whole time and with an arc on STRQ that I find even less likely to come from scum->scum. Maybe if Elmo thought she was going down but I think I haven't been the only person proselytizing her as town for a while? Maybe if she's just not thinking about setup strategy but... like, still, this is such an aggressive bussing stance in that universe.

If she's scum it'd have to be with like, one of strq/amrun + one of pops/s_s. And that's totally possible but I don't really like it as much as strq+amrun+pops/s_s (leaning s_s right now, partially on a whim). I think Elmo's approach to the game feels town-motivated. I think she's looking at things and experiencing them as town does, being irked by the kinds of things that irk a townie genuinely trying to suss things out (inactivity, a hydra that is perceived as being obstinately difficult to read, etc).

I think if Elmo is scum... it's probably with STRQ and not with Amrun. I think I buy Ame's point about Elmo/STRQ early interactions being potentially keeping a buddy in line to distance but not hardbus. I find it hard to believe if Amrun is also scum, but in isolation the actions toward STRQ could be a sensible distancing play. In that case 3rd would probably be S_S i think.

[implosion]

ame can i hammer you i want to hammer you

[implosion]

good enough

VOTE: Ame

[implosion]

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

[implosion]

Why is your immediate assumption that Ame scum -> Amrun scum, pops? I had the opposite in that I was sold on Amrun being scum and Ame flipping scum was like the one eventuality where I have to rethink that given d1 wagon dynamics.

[implosion]

in THEORY it's not so bad that we heaven'd ame bc i am glad to know they were scum now and not later but uhhh yeah this is going poorly

[implosion]

Though Amrun randomly pushing Ame is suspect in principal? I imagine that's where some of it's coming from?

[implosion]

I don't see the scum incentive implo. Empirically that kind of "massive effort but like is that really the thing you should aim the massive effort at" has been NAI or TI when I've seen it (recently Asriel Dreemurr in a micro)

how often is this a scum reaction to my post before it.

[implosion]

I doubt Ame really *strongly* cared whether she got heavened yesterday or not because she's furthering her win condition one way or another. Or well, put another way, it's hard to predict how much scum would value going to heaven in the setup, because there are valid arguments from the position of Ame yesterday to try to go to heaven and valid arguments to try to stay on earth. I don't know which way scum would have preferred.

[implosion]

Meh. I'll probably want to vote Amrun today anyway. Amrun is now the slot who if town, I kind of need to know now? Idk. I'm certainly not committing to anything after ame flipping scum.

[implosion]

It is also, particularly from my pov of course, worth evaluating exactly the trajectory that led to Ame being the heaven target and not me. Of course I'm part of that, and of course it's hard to glean meaning from it for the reason I just mentioned of not being able to strongly predict how scum are evaluating the setup. But it should still be worth some thought.

[implosion]

Honestly, I need to throw things away and start from scratch. Maybe the one thing to hold on to for now is Looker-town but really should start from scratch.

[implosion]

I doubt Ame really *strongly* cared whether she got heavened yesterday or not because she's furthering her win condition one way or another. Or well, put another way, it's hard to predict how much scum would value going to heaven in the setup, because there are valid arguments from the position of Ame yesterday to try to go to heaven and valid arguments to try to stay on earth. I don't know which way scum would have preferred.

think about it at the angle of what allows the scumteam to win in the most possible scenarios

namely, how they can win via heaven and via judgment day.

-Summer

I mean, we can certainly think about it logically.

But this is the kind of problem that doesn't have a single, universal, perfect logical answer; and thus, we cannot assume that scum are using the same logic to evaluate the answer as we are in the thread. So honestly I don't think it's worth engaging in too much thought over.

[implosion]

I.e. scum perfectly possibly could have thought "this is great, we're getting Ame into heaven, that's great, only one more and we win"

or they could have thought "man, it'd be great if we could avoid heavening Ame for a phase or two, so that she can stay on earth and fuck with the town's reads from a position of authority"

there is no way to use logic to distinguish between which of these scum were thinking. For all we know they might have been ambivalent between the two!

[implosion]

Certainly we can think about it in terms of dynamics like, if ame is scum with amrun+elmo or some other pair that's unlikely to have either person get heavened, maybe she doesn't want to get heavened as strongly. But it's still a crapshoot.

[implosion]

I.e. scum perfectly possibly could have thought "this is great, we're getting Ame into heaven, that's great, only one more and we win"

or they could have thought "man, it'd be great if we could avoid heavening Ame for a phase or two, so that she can stay on earth and fuck with the town's reads from a position of authority"

there is no way to use logic to distinguish between which of these scum were thinking. For all we know they might have been ambivalent between the two!

Ame's big wall was made from the position of knowing she was going to be heavened, so that's a good place to start narrowing things down.

-Summer

A big wall made from the position of knowing that you're going to be heavened, especially from a scum player playing as craftily and thinking as deeply as Ame seems to have been, is precisely the kind of thing that we have no reason to read deeply in to...

[implosion]

That wall was, for all intents and purposes, Ame just cementing that she was going to heaven. She knew that we'd know she was scum when evaluating it about a day after she posted it.

[implosion]

Again I think this is waaaay less important than you seem to

[implosion]

i need to see a vote count to know what i want to do atm. don't really have the motivation to push the game forward atm either.

[implosion]

no strong reason.

[implosion]

hello it is good to see a not bad thing happen in this game

From this point it's a literal 50/50, practically speaking; we get to send 3 people to hell, and we need one of them to be the other scum. The good news is that now we have only 1 scum alive, so anyone advocating anyone else is either being genuine or is scum advocating a townie.

My first thought would be I want me/looker/pops heavened; I might actually have motivation to do things atm though so that's good!

[implosion]

Maybe elmo is an even better heaven than one of them though. Though that may be a hard sell to others. Not sure how strongly I think it.

[implosion]

I still think I'm cleared by my actions EoD1 now that I can't be scum with Amrun. Why do you disagree?

Clarify?

I thought Ame was cleared for her actions at eod1, and....

[implosion]

post 1253 really, really gives me the heebie jeebies. Why doesn't town!implosion have a hard stance on this slot in this gamestate? Even an erroneous townread would seem townie when implo is commenting on someone with so much content.

@Something_Smart: what's the EoD1 stuff that is supposed to clear you, I forgot. And also, why aren't you seeking towncred for your role in killing STRQ? My paranoia says it's guilt from knowing you shouldn't be townread for killing someone from a PT.. but I need more strong townreads.

ame's scum flip shook me and i never had time/energy to really rethink things through yesterday.

[implosion]

actually i might be wrong to townread pops. I think i'd rather like, townread elmo than pops? maybe even s_s.

pops is like, playing really well, and talking in a way that makes me look at what she's saying and go "yeah, that's town". This has been the case since like mid yesterday. But that isn't really strictly necessarily town indicative, it's just like, good play.

[implosion]

Everyone should provide exactly their top 3 town reads (no more, no less) and exactly 2 strongest scum reads.

Implosion, Elmo, Looker.

Wooper, Ame.

I don't feel strongly about either scumread, before I get any demands for explanation.

These are like, pretty good reads for theoretical scum-S_S to espouse in response to this question. Idk about it.

I think I might be convincing myself that S_S is actually safe enough to call town idk. I actually don't really care about the content in 1275/1276 almost at all but like, their existence and the existence of 1272 is probably town indicative for S_S in principle.

[implosion]

Like, I've been thinking more and more town on pops but I'm not sure that I've ever actually had a good reason for this. I think it's just the kind of read that I sort of lazily make sometimes. I'm not sure if I really know how to read pops.

I'm still just so not-sold on elmo being the scum though :\

[implosion]

I am extremely confused about implo's townread on me downshifting with the turning point being that I murdered scum and I'm concerned he's crunched the numbers and thinks he's PoE'd himself and has to flip on it.

This would be a valid point if I wasn't still listing 3 people other than me (elmo/looker/s_s) that i'm happy to heaven in principle.

[implosion]

And "I murdered scum" is an extremely terrible reason to townread anyone in a gamestate where scum have the massive incentive of "if one more of us gets into heaven, we win" of bussing. If scum thought STRQ was not making it to endgame (which, is not unlikely) then it's more than plausible they'd hardbus.

[implosion]

Like honestly if I'm scum I don't even know why I wouldn't take a hard stance on STRQ yesterday. It's kind of a terrible argument to call that scummy; if I'm scum yesterday (in fact, no matter who scum were yesterday) then scum were in an extremely strong position. Why would I as scum compromise that by staunchly refusing to take a stance on my dying buddy? I don't think there's any valid strategic reason for me to do that. I think there is one valid answer, and that's apathy... but why would I be more likely to be apathetic as scum than as town yesterday, with scum in such a good position? Apathy is the actual answer of why I didn't take a strong stance on STRQ, but it's not something I'd have been specifically more likely to have as scum.

[implosion]

I'm talking about lynching. You're happy to lynch Amrun into pops into implo?

I wouldn't use "happy" but willing, i mean, pretty much. I think it wins fairly often. I think Amrun into pops into someone that isn't me wins more often, of course. And I think your reasons for flipping on me are bad, and I think I'm still obvious enough town to merit not being one of the people that dies so as to make all our lives easier.

[implosion]

I also am still conflicted on you because you've been playing in a sort of "obvtown" way, but I really can't put my finger on how to actually read you.

[implosion]

that's a horrid misconstrual of what i'm saying and you know it is.

[implosion]

There are six people left in the game; five of them are not me; of those three of them I see reasons to townread that I think are better than those that I can actually trust myself on for you. When I say you're playing like "obvtown" in quotes, I mean that you're playing the game very well, are saying the right things at the right times to look good, etc; but I can't put my finger on how to read you, i.e., I think it's entirely plausible that all that is within your scum range or that the "townish" things you're doing are things that scum playing very well could do as well, and I can't find specific things that I'm confident are outside of it. I think it's entirely possible you're scum and playing this game quite well. I think it's less likely that any of looker/elmo/s_s are scum who are doing something similar.

[implosion]

It's not exactly related to your scumrange vs his scumrange. It's that the things that I want at a gut level to call townish from you are the kinds of things that I think are more likely to be faked by scum that are playing well, and the things that I want to call townish from S_S are less at a gut level and more things that I think I can justify with reasons that have material veracity.

[implosion]

honestly as regards looker i still have at least a little bit of residual townread from.....ame's towncase x_x

and beyond that I'm mostly coasting off of early stuff/consensus for my read on looker, and the fact that people are saying looker specifically doesn't have a big scum range. So it's a bit different than S_S. But I do think the fact ame did the towncase is also like, some town points for looker. Probably not a lot. I'm probably wrong to think that at all, but i do!

[implosion]

okay.

[implosion]

Honestly, stream of consciousness-ing is almost certainly one of the aspects of my town play that i am distinctly bad at emulating as scum. The intent of my last couple pages is just to say what I'm thinking; not strictly to discourage your townread of pops but to try and see if I can get a better read on her in some way. I've still been plenty clear with what my reads are at the moment.

The scum range thing is basically just that people have talked a lot about things you've done this game that they claim you're bad at emulating as scum; so in your case it's just based on what other people are saying. For e.g. pops or S_S it's more abstract, and I'm probably using the term scumrange in a way that's obscuring what I'm trying to communicate rather than making it clearer. In pops's case I'm really just using it as a proxy to mean "the kind of thing that scum playing well are generally capable of doing".

[implosion]

i really just don't see a world in which scum-elmo keeps making posts like that.

[implosion]

Says who? Says you? You understand why I wouldn't believe this, right?

Yep.

Who are you Heavening today?

I'd say in order of preference at this exact moment: me, elmo, you, or S_S. Whoever is highest on that list with enough support. Not in a hurry though.

[implosion]

At this point I don't really see myself voting anyone but Amrun tomorrow, if for no other reason than PoE.

[implosion]

elmo it's literally mandatory if we didn't have to heaven we'd just automatically win by never heavening anyone else

[implosion]

i honestly don't understand how elmo can be scum here >_>

[implosion]

Occupied by finals.

I'll probably vote S_S but want to see a vote count first.

[implosion]

i really, REALLY do not want to hell elmo. I really feel like she's obvtown and I don't know why people don't see it.

I'm done with finals so I can towncase her if people want. I'd almost take me being helled over her given that she won't be helled later (which obviously isn't how things work, but)

[implosion]

VOTE: Amrun

[implosion]

Also a very good reason to hell Amrun tomorrow if not today, but preferably today:

I'm fine with going to heaven as long as Amrun goes to hell tomorrow.

If we don't hell her by judgment then she's getting judged. We might as well give S_S + whoever else the information, in that case. In a sense I guess that comes down to whether we trust ourselves or S_S more but like, consider that he literally said he was okay with being heavened specifically if we hell amrun now >_>

[implosion]

I would say I'm at

Looker
Elmo
Amrun
implosion

Right now. I don't know that I disagree with your case on Elmo, Looker, I find Elmo's play enigmatic and difficult to interpret and I see some merit in those points, but if implosion is town then his opinion on her is genuine and I put some value on that too.

The most likely possible change in my views this day phase would be Amrun<->Elmo, I think.

This to me just screams with the possibility of scum setting up to hell me, elmo and amrun for the win. Because that is pops's unique path to victory if she's scum. And I still think she's second most likely after Amrun.

[implosion]

Please kindly do not do that.

I will make the case tomorrow.

[implosion]

So Elmo town comes down at a fundamental level to her transparently lacking any sort of agenda, I think. When she is trying to do something she is very overt about it; she seems to have a real lack of care over whether she gets helled or heavened, and when she does advocate for things I think they're in ways that scum wouldn't do. Consider, e.g., her posting today.

You know what I'll hammer myself if you can get a vote here Looker. That's how much I'm just over this game. And just some of the people and shit. But that's alright. I'm not going to stress about it

This is a pretty suicidal thing to say as scum with looker voting her and Amrun saying she plans to vote her. if Amrun votes Elmo and Elmo is scum, she has to either throw the game, or make an obviously scummy retraction.

It is always someone else's fault you're getting scum read. I also tend to rely on town reads from two of the scummiest players in the game to defend me.

I'm not defending you. Honestly I'd rather you sent to hell.
But your obv town.

Why call your reads out? To what create more fluff? You consider me scum your vote is on me correct?
And I'm not blaming anyone for thinking I'm scum. At this point I'd rather have the votes on me to show town can do something.

I'm not defending you. Honestly I'd rather you sent to hell.
But your obv town.

Say what now?

Hydra is town.
Though I want them dead.
We are scum Hunting.

I know these interactions and the fact that Elmo eventually voted STRQ and then switched to Wooper has come under a lot of scrutiny. But I really don't see how scum decides that *this* is the right way to distance from someone. It's the worst of both worlds - she winds up pressuring STRQ (even if her vote ultimately landed elsewhere), and the associations are obviously going to look terrible if/ when STRQ or Elmo flips. And I think scum will be thinking about associatives pretty strongly in this sort of setup, and going out of their way to avoid this sort of thing.

vote: implosion

This game just yeah.

-Elmo provides reasoning for her reads.

Ya ever just feel it in your jimmies? Cause that's the best reasoning I got.

I won't lie this game has been nothing but a shit show. From Day 1 to now. My reads are all over the place. I wish you all would have heavened me. But what can I say.

These are some quotes that show the lack of agenda. She really just looks like town who's along for he ride. The way in which she's refusing to explain herself feels much more like town who is over the game and distracted by real life and doesn't really care how they're perceived to me than it feels like scum who doesn't want to explain themselves. "I wish you all would have heavened me" is an *incredibly* cheeky thing to say as scum, and Elmo doesn't strike me as the kind of player to be that cheeky as scum.

I'm going to offer this proposal. Heaven me game goes on let me watch how this game plays out as we have a pretty good chance and my faith in so many reads is gone. This games gone down and were at in impasse for this day and heaven plays are a harder one then.otherwise. We need to get this right as we're in between a rock and hard place

So like, this technically has an agenda but like. In what universe does elmo-scum make this post and genuinely think there's any chance whatsoever that the town is going to listen to it? I think it's absurd to say that. I think this is an extremely, extremely difficult post for Elmo to make as scum. To be so brazen as to say "hey what if we just heavened me" when iirc she was not really consensus being townread at that point, is to me just super unlikely.

You know what. The more I think about this game.
VOTE: no one

I just yeah.

Both the previous quote and this one I think also allude to Elmo not having a strong picture of how the setup functions, which I also think is significantly less likely from scum, especially scum with STRQ and Ame, who would have been in the scum topic with some people who are quite mechanically competent.

I can probably do more but will cut it off here at least for now.

[implosion]

Like, your case seems to rely on her being coasting scum who's using real life as an excuse. But idk what exactly she's coasting on if she is scum, she's been at death's door for a while... of the four other people alive now, 1 (me) has her as town, 1 (you) has her as a very strong scumread, 1 (Amrun) has her as "I will probably vote here today", and 1 (pops) has her as middle of the road. Sure, S_S is up in heaven and called her town but that doesn't exactly win her the game if she doesn't make it there. And I came into today not nearly as sold on Elmo-town as I am now. And like... can you

really

fault someone for being distracted by real life right now, even in the absence of whatever personal things she has going on.

[implosion]

i have to be honest i really didn't think amrun would flip scum >.>
the game is a lot simpler to conceive with her being scum though.

gg. And really well played ame, you had me very very fooled.

[implosion]

in my heart of hearts i was ready to like, selfvote and tell elmo to vote me so that we could force me to heaven at deadline if looker and pops weren't willing to and gosh. the stress of imagining it. I was really scared of having to decide between pops and looker.

[implosion]

anyway sorry for the animosity pops :X. I just was trying to find where scum was if it wasn't Amrun and was like, looking more deeply than I should have, or something.

[implosion]

The alignment that gets the advantage early in what sense? Because I mean, we helled town and heavened scum the first two days. Certainly scum had the advantage early. Town just got good collective reads as a result.