Newbie 1989 (Game over!)

[clidd]

[clidd]

Hum, ok.

[clidd]

Hello again, Mr. Menalque

[clidd]

I will be exercising a medium / low effort in this game. Consider me a support.

[clidd]

Got any reads for me, clidd?

Also why aren’t you voting?

Yes:

72offsuit

Spoiler:

Welcome doobie

It would be really great if you could find an image to have as an avatar.
It helps with player identification, especially later on when all the posts kind of meld into each other.
Just find a small image size on google, and in your user control panel, upload the image as your avatar.

If you are town, the best thing you can do is be active, but try and post meaningful posts where you are analysing others player's posts and trying to determine the motivation behind them.
Do they sound like mafia with the motive of going for an easy lynch of a helpless townie? Do they sound like they are a townie genuinely trying to poke and prod to solve the game?

If you are scum, I have a nice and comfy appropriately sized noose <3

Agree. I get a bad vibe from the post. It sounds to me more like Information Instead of Analysis. Like you say, its a just a generic state of play rehash without actually bringing town closer to deciding a lynch.

Worst yet, Atarashi doubles down that they haven't made a conclusion

yet

. As if its some golden nugget that will reap some mysterious rewards later.

I'm jumping on the wagon. I encourage others to do so too.
No ticket required to jump on board this train.
Choo choo choo

VOTE: Atarashi

In particular, I believe that his initial interaction was done with a good intention. I was unable to feel bias coming from text 14, directed at

Doobie

, especially due to self-confidence in the last sentence.

The same sentiment is replicated in post 52. These characteristics are typical of a

town mentality

.

[clidd]

I'm starting to participate now, so I missed the random voting phase.

[clidd]

And yes, im confident about putting

72offsuit

as

TR

in my firm first impression in 5 minute read.

[clidd]

Why do those characteristics come from a townie mentality?

I can't imagine the post 14 being typed by

scum!72

, considering that he has no experience as

scum

, most of his games are as

town

- so he is expected to act more cautiously, less loose, when he witnessed his first game as

scum

. Which, clearly, didn’t seem to be the case here:

''

Wow, fail didnt see this post in my rush to post lol

''

''

I'm jumping on the wagon. I encourage others to do so too.

''

''

If you are scum, I have a nice and comfy appropriately sized noose

''

I may be wrong about that, but it is up to you to decide. In any case, I intend to use this initial read as a basis to build a PoE with the information of your role.

[clidd]

Information

--> two mechanically proven towns.

[clidd]

Information

--> two mechanically proven towns.

Is Menalque a proven town just because he said he was or is there more to that assumption?

I don't see a scenario which

Scum!Menalque

would bluff a claim with the risk of receiving a

CC

on the first day.

Do you ?

Spoiler:

[clidd]

Atarashi Hajimari

seems to be a good second option to evaluate as potential

TR

.

VOTE: clidd hello there

They saw my hardtunnel on two players in the last game, so they probably would not attract my attention early as

scum!Haji

, considering that the same chaotic pressure scenario that I established in the past game could, evidently, be repeated in this game. Such disadvantage would be better administered if avoided, at least in the initial stage. They also noticed that I reacted badly to votes on me in that game.

[clidd]

I don't see a scenario which Scum!Menalque would bluff a claim with the risk of receiving a CC on the first day.

Do you ?

I do but not for any reason you have claimed. Personally I have an FOS on them just for doing what they did. Personally what does town gain my someone fake claiming a pr? Scum it makes sense to throw people off the case. Maybe it's the old person in me talking when I say that but it just doesn't sit right with me at all.

Hum, no. If you do, you probably never played with

Menalque

or watched one of his games.

[clidd]

This is my only other time coming back in roughly a year plus. So no I don't know his games. Either way I don't care for it. I'm not one to go digging thru metas as well. Personally I think the claim comes off as arrogant.

[clidd]

Can you tell me the real reason for you to think that ? I don't appreciate it when people lie in my face.

''

Personally I think the claim comes off as arrogant

''

it seems like an excuse.

[clidd]

So instead of actually engaging and talking thru the line of thinking you post a gif. Thanks for that because we're making progress with this.

I do not discuss lines of reasoning that seem remotely relevant to me.

[clidd]

I can feel a degree of honesty in your lines, but I don't empathize with such view. It is beneficial for a VT to bluff being PR, as long as the player has significant notoriety and knows what he is doing. It is not logical for him to do this as scum precisely because of my presence in the game. He would not take a while to be lynched (not to mention that I have 3 possible associations in mind for this scenario).

[clidd]

I'm having a hard time classifying your reaction. I saw similar behavior in two other games, and both came from the red alignment, but that would contradict the lines of honesty I felt in your text.

Forget what I said about "my presence", it's just my normal tone.

The question is:

why do you show so much resistance to the simple conclusion that Menalque is a mason and is trying to solve the game ? I just need to understand this point correctly to start thinking about it.

[clidd]

Don't worry, no game is solved on the first day, but measures to facilitate its progress can be made. Of course, this reduces the fun as we apply mathematical factors to safely increase our chances of winning, but on the other hand, it encourages collective work - an essential element for any mafia game.

I believe that it was rash of me to consider your reasoning irrelevant, as I totally disregarded your view of the game in this context. If you are not comfortable with the way we are playing, we can think of a more traditional way of playing - through normal scumhunting, for example.

Spoiler:

[clidd]

He has the same role I had in our last game.

[clidd]

He has the same role I had in our last game.

No you were a maso

n

, not a maso

m

. Big difference.

Source: English major

I see.

[clidd]

He has the same role I had in our last game.

No you were a maso

n

, not a maso

m

. Big difference.

Source: English major

I see.

I feel kinda bad now. I remember you saying something about english not being your first language. I was being sarcastic.

English is my third language, unfortunately.

[clidd]

Official Vote Count 1.06

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Lynching

Menalque

(3): Iconeum, Elmo TeH AzN, 72offsuit

Iconeum

(2): Doobietime, Lotus Aura

Not Voting

(4): clidd, WizenedWalrus, Menalque, Atarashi Hajimari

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-03-15 01:30:00).

Mod notes:

• Menalque replaces GuiltyLion.
  
• WizenedWalrus replaces stormey815, awaiting confirmation.
  
• Iconeum standing V/LA weekends.

[clidd]

I go out for a few hours and a rebellion starts.

Reading soon.

[clidd]

Hum. Im thinking.

[clidd]

Yes, absolutely.

[clidd]

I believe it is unlikely that

Menalque

is

scum

based on the time between those first three posts and the claim. Having

Guilty Lion

as

scum

, in theory, should suggest that there was content to read at

scum PT

, so

Menalque

would need more time to convince his partner to agree with such a suicide plan like this.

[clidd]

The way it was executed, without delay, indicates that the

mason

situation immediately came to his mind in some way. Perhaps our game in common, perhaps some additional information - something that a

VT

would not have, or just a safe guess to not characterize a

CC

of the cop or doctor, if any.

[clidd]

I have difficulties to discriminate such event as a coefficient that justifies the scenario

scum!Mena

, because it implies that he would abandon the progression of his predecessor and would impose his own pace of play.

Theoretically, this movement would be more appropriate with the self-confident profile I expect from him, unless, of course, he is trying to perform something that I have not yet seen from him. But that would not explain the effort applied because it is a newbie game, where he would have other safer and more coherent means of winning as a

scum

.

[clidd]

For the moment, I'll go with VOTE: Elmo TeH AzN: as others have pointed out, she seemed to get unduly flustered by Menalque's SR of her.

I believe it is strange in a line of intrigue involving

Menalque

and

Ico

, that you see

Elmo

as the primary element of suspicion.

What is your position in relation to the

mason

case ?

[clidd]

As a protective measure, we could stipulate a

BoP

for

Menalque

and an expiration date. I don't expect him to be alive for longer than day 3, unless he's

scum

.

[clidd]

Brief

PoE

according to my impression so far:

TRs

--> Ico | Menalque

(BoP)

TL

--> Hajimari | 72offsuit

Unsure

--> Lotus | Doobie | Walrus | Elmo

* I detected some traces of honesty during the conversation with

Elmo

, but nothing so expressive to consider

lock-town

. I believe that her doubt is genuine about the mason claim, as well as her reaction, but I still need a little more certain margin before concluding on such slot.

Lotus

,

Doobie

and

Walrus

need to be better evaluated before I can rate them (even with Lotus being

scummy

recently).

*

Hajimari

and

72offsuit

are

TL

because of their tone, at least as far as I saw.

*

Ico

is a potentially

mason

(if not confirmed), while

Menalque

demonstrates a presence that can be beneficial, but which is subject to his performance, and the time he will spend alive in this game.

* I will continue to operate at a low frequency, focusing on developing some sketches in my notebook. I will be available if anyone needs a second opinion on any matter.

Spoiler:

[clidd]

Riddle me this. Why are we solving this game on day one?

Isn't the point of the game to solve it? Why wouldn't we start on day one?

Not what I'm getting at its the fact that why are we talking about PoE with no info other then subtle reads and no conf towns is all.

I am only offering an auxiliary suggestion, because PoE is the approximation that I will be using in this game.

Low energy doesn't allow me to go beyond that.

[clidd]

And, as I mentioned, give my opinion on the issues.

[clidd]

Spoiler:

@Ata, I don't want to quote and make my post even longer...
Sorry for the delay. I spent ages answering your questions without even drafting them because I thought I'd made a logical mistake somewhere with my hunch and you had an actual reason for scumreading me. Thankfully I can answer all of your questions, and still feel as though I could be right, which frankly is a bloody miracle at this stage. I can't answer what it is we aren't understanding about eachother though.

You didn't and still haven't answered all of my question. You made two judgement calls on the mason situation, first voting Menalque because of it. Then as you say, decided not to pursue further, by no voting. It seems weird to be set strongly enough on Lotus to return back to voting for them for same reasons in post 48, when you dropped that vote for Menalque and then went for a no vote before returning to your original trail of thought. I would have thought if your SR of Lotus was genuine or strong enough you would have stuck with it or gone right back to it sans no vote.

^Which is why I'm speculating your reasoning was passable before but less so now. It's what I'm saying is inconsistent about you so far and it matters because something being scummy is contextual, presumably as more information becomes available things like early inconsistencies can paint a bigger picture later in the game. If said inconsistencies were all actions which manipulate the game to one teams advantage, for example.



Post 196,
I understood the tone of the post. I still feel as though it's exploring the possibility which doesn't help town. And 'I don't think he ever claims this early' is a playstyle reference which I can't verify. Ico should have shut it down completely, like you seem to have interpreted them as doing anyway.

If Ico's observation amounts to 'this seems to make sense, but then even that doesn't add up'
isn't he pointing something out to others and debating it extensively, but not making a personal conclusion from it, much like lotus did to earn your vote?

I wouldn't sit here debating this with you if I hadn't read the the links. I wouldn't have linked the post saying I agree with the points here if I didn't know what they were. How would that benefit me whichever way I was aligned?


213/193
I agreed with Lotus' point and elaborated on my reasons for agreeing it didn't sit right. The list isn't exactly all-inclusive is it? There's 101 plausible scenarios and Ico supposedly left the window open to a town Menalque so that's one outside of the two listed here.

Point two says he risks pinging other power roles and them investigating him diverting power from scum. A fake claim from a town gives no power to scum in itself, only the possible repercussions. If we are indeed playing with masons then similar logic could be applied to Ico's CC, who will benefit from that info at this stage in a Mason setup?

Next Q,
I agreed it was hollow because as Menalque says, he was leaning towards lotus being scum at that time.

Whew, nearly done...

One- No, I'm saying why did Ico say 'go Lynch scum' when only mafia would know whether I'm planning to lynch scum or not?

Two- had to finish on this one didn't you? After all my effort? Well... I'm gonna post my long ass argument anyway :b

I'm leaning more towards Ico being scum than anybody else at this point, especially after all this revisiting. I never said it wasn't petty, in fact, didn't I more or less say it was? I'm doing my best with what I have. Your scum read of me is petty also and that is because we are just getting started

''

I'm leaning more towards Ico being scum than anybody else at this point

''

-I believe it is unlikely because she directly faced

Menalque

(who admitted to not being a

mason

). If she were

scum

, in that context, it would be easy to unmask her if a third CC occurred. I can only imagine the scenario

scum!Ico

occurring if the real

PRs

want to hide or if

scum!Menalque

is her partner, who forged a theater to appear that they would, in theory, be in differently aligned poles.

[clidd]

In fact, their interaction did not look like

TvS

, but rather

TvT

, considering that both went backwards as they noticed that we had plenty of time to talk. This shows a concern on both sides to know the opinion of the other players, instead of establishing a blind tunnel that obscures the view of the public consensus.

[clidd]

Spoiler:

For the moment, I'll go with VOTE: Elmo TeH AzN: as others have pointed out, she seemed to get unduly flustered by Menalque's SR of her.

I believe it is strange in a line of intrigue involving

Menalque

and

Ico

, that you see

Elmo

as the primary element of suspicion.

What is your position in relation to the

mason

case ?

I didn't actually say that she was my primary suspect, though she definitely is in the top three. I just feel that seeing who might actually vote for her instead of just voicing suspicions might provide some information.

As for the mason claims, it's a very weird scenario. Seems a pretty extreme thing for a baddie to come out of nowhere with a mason claim early on day 1. I guess there's a

chance

that perhaps Menalque is bold enough to try something crazy with the prepared defense "I'd never do that as a baddie, it's too crazy". I guess. Anything's possible in werewolf/mafia. He's already recanted, and now says he's just a VT trying unorthodox measures. As for Ico, him being bad seems ever more improbable to me -- him being a real mason appears to be the reason he reacted so strongly to Menalque's ruse. I find it hard to believe that a baddie or vanilla townie would react so strongly to a day 1 mason claim, so I'm also a bit suspicious of Doobie & Lotus who've left their vote on Ico even after the claim.

I fully agree with your position on the case about Ico's reaction to the claim. This fits perfectly with the situation which

town!Ico

finds herself threatened by an imposter in her role.

[clidd]

Hum, I see.

[clidd]

I'm glad someone gets my line of thinking here

So, do you have any reads ?

[clidd]

[clidd]

Im back.

[clidd]

clidd, current take on 72 when you get here

Give me some minutes.

[clidd]

I made a short summary of my impressions about 72offsuit.

Spoiler:

Joined: December 28, 2019

First, I am considering three basic points of information about his profile:

1.

He has not completed any games as scum

-> That is, he has no experience in the role.

2.

His natural behavior is open, volatile sometimes and not very thoughtful before reacting to something

-> Same attitude shown in this game.

3.

He is, in fact, a newbie player and not an alt account.

-> So it is expected that in his first game as

scum

, he will not be able to maintain the same behavioral pattern of

town!72

.

Newbie 1984=

(https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=82005) |

Newbie 1977

(https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=81730)

Now, on to the post analysis:

Greetings Earthlings.

VOTE: Lotus

Anyone with such a peaceful name is surely a sheep in wolf''s clothing.

The first post seems to come from a calm perspective, which captures the first association observed and immediately turns it into a reaction. Something different from the scenario

scum!72

, as there would be extra care before making a premature consideration, keeping in mind that his biggest concern would be to emulate a genuine sensation, so that his intention was not questioned early in the day. Based on this, I imagine three possible actions in the reasoning

newbie!Scum:

1 -

Vote without adding a figurative explanation,

2 -

Vote in the '' Guilty Lion '', because the context of such vote would be safer and less socially questionable, or

3 -

Vote for me, aiming at materializing a possible simulation of fury / frustration with AtE index on my participation in this game (yes, he doesn't like me - but I can't go into details because it involves games in progress).

Welcome doobie

It would be really great if you could find an image to have as an avatar.
It helps with player identification, especially later on when all the posts kind of meld into each other.
Just find a small image size on google, and in your user control panel, upload the image as your avatar.

If you are town, the best thing you can do is be active, but try and post meaningful posts where you are analysing others player's posts and trying to determine the motivation behind them.
Do they sound like mafia with the motive of going for an easy lynch of a helpless townie? Do they sound like they are a townie genuinely trying to poke and prod to solve the game?

If you are scum, I have a nice and comfy appropriately sized noose <3

The tone of this post reflects a tranquility of mind, different from what I imagine from the pressure imposed by a new experience, such as obtaining a role that completely changes your objective within the game. I believe that the assimilation present in his advices is fluid and characterized by a natural feeling that it is transmitting a recent / current individual experience. Suggestively, he unconsciously makes transparent the ease with which these ideas are articulated and passed on to the other player, showing no discomfort at any time. I believe that these elements are nutrients of a mentality more inclined to

green alignment

, in the sense of self confidence, than to the

red side

, where caution and fear would hinder emotional transparency in text.

Wow, fail didnt see this post in my rush to post lol

The acceleration of his frequency of posts seems to be linked to his attention, considering that from the moment he observes something and makes a mental note, as he prepares to comment, there is no prior mental '' brake '' to consider all events that occurred before, indicating his lack of planning and coordination (considering that

scum!72

would have a partner, in theory, to guide him).

[clidd]

@Menalque

So, basically, I used emotional reads to determine my position in relation to his slot.

[clidd]

I don't understand how you're proven town?

I don't know how anything can be proven with not one single action having been taken.

Don't masons have to be extra careful? I mean, it's only a PR until one gets lynched or NK- I'm assuming they can't communicate in a PT after that? Aren't you guaranteed to be killed N1 at the latest after hardclaiming, so the scum can eliminate towns only advantage in a Mason game setup?

?

[clidd]

Spoiler:

@Doobie:
If you thought it was a stupid point, why bring it up?

Because Iconeum's SE status leads me to believe they wouldn't give away their alignment in their first post, but if Ico turns out to be scum, that's exactly what happened. Stupid, because it would be an absolutely horrendous poor play, but still doesn't make what I said incomprehensible.

Sophie

If imscum then i am fakeclaiming

The absolute Optimal play for town power IS to counterclaim and lynh me

The trade IS in town benefit because the town power can effectivelu catch scum this way

I don't understand how you're proven town? I don't know how anything can be proven with not one single action having been taken.

Don't masons have to be extra careful? I mean, it's only a PR until one gets lynched or NK- I'm assuming they can't communicate in a PT after that? Aren't you guaranteed to be killed N1 at the latest after hardclaiming, so the scum can eliminate towns only advantage in a Mason game setup?

If this is how you scumread me, how re u townreading menal?

I have the same doubt.

[clidd]

Atarashi Hajimari

, what is your read on

Doobie

now ?

[clidd]

Atarashi Hajimari

, what is your read on

Doobie

now ?

Random question, does it get tiring color coding literally every post you make? I'd get annoyed with trying to keep it up real fast.

To answer your question though, I still dont really like the slot at all, but I'm admittedly having a bit of trouble getting past the newbie-esque feel to her posts to see if its newb-town or newb-scum. I think it's probably the latter, but I'm more confident that eqsy's slot is scum and, if so, doobie is almost certainly the second scum.

Hum, no. I organize myself better with colors.

Maybe

Doobie

needs a second chance. I believe that her vote at

Ico

indicates more confusion than necessarily a biased intention.

Eqsy

, however, seems a good lynch policy.

[clidd]

Why are we lining up lynches?
And calling a policy lynch?

I'm just trying to understand this logic.

I don't like your attitude of questioning everything we do. It seems like a mindset that is more inclined to emphasize the problem than the solution.

[clidd]

It's important to set priority for lynchs, otherwise we will not move.

[clidd]

Ngl, I think you're barking up the wrong tree here. I agree with you on a personal level, but I think this is more of a meta/playstyle difference rather than alignment difference.

What do you mean by policy here?

Also, if this is true then where's your vote at?

1. Hum, ok.

2. Lynch the most suspect at the moment.

3. No, my vote doesn't work like that. I'll be hammering or putting someone on L-1 today.

[clidd]

. No, my vote doesn't work like that. I'll be hammering or putting someone on L-1 today

...why?

To see how the votes would manifest without the influence of my vote.

In our last game, voting early ended up hurting my playstyle in some ways. I plan to fix that now.

[clidd]

Scummy, because he acknowledged that his predecessor made mistakes but did not point out which ones.

It would be more natural if he had ignored the slot's ISO before he entered and tried to impose his own way of showing that he is town.

That

"knowing the meta"

thing seemed like an excuse for not having to make a defense, almost as if he tried to appeal to our sense of doubt without having to argue in the process.

[clidd]

Why the hell do youi want to draw out this Day Timer? We have 90+ Hours to discuss why Hammer so early? I'm mad that Lotus destroyed this slot but whatever. I'm used to this.

At no time he quote '' how '' the slot was destroyed. I have a hard time imagining this mentality coming from the green alignment.

[clidd]

I believe that he and Walrus are good lynchs in the sense of avoiding headaches later, if we go to the situation of lylo (as happened in the last game with Not_Mafia).

[clidd]

I appreciate how you put yourself in a position to criticize others, but you don't take a position to help the game.

[clidd]

This is what I didn't understand. Aside it all make sense now from your pov. Thanks for the clarification. Why did I show so much because

honestly I'm an idiot sometimes and didn't read much into the setups

. Yeah blame me this was a game to help me get back into the flow of games. I normally hang out in open setups on that note knowing what is happening.

Thanks for entertaining myself. On this one. Now that I understand the whole picture I'm a bit sorry for going off on that note. And solving the game on day one just seems like someone is lining up lynches which can go sideways pretty quickly is all.

Actually, I have one agreement with you.

[clidd]

Yes, unfortunately she is.

I believe it's 2 scum between Eqsy, Doobie and Walrus (72offsuit is unlikely to be scum according to my impressions).


That considering that Menalque is town, of course. He's still on the BoP.

[clidd]

Why do you say 72off is town? There really hasn't been too much from his slot and what there has been I haven't been blown away by.

Impressions, it is not the first game I play with him.

[clidd]

And my actual read isn't the same as my read on Wilky last game, keep it in mind.

[clidd]

I have more confidence in my read this time.

[clidd]

Lel, your partner was good, 72offsuit.

Mafia PT:

Spoiler:

Shoot, Clidd suspects you. He might have tracked you, in which case he knows that you are either a PR or scum. Of all of the "tests" that he gave me, don't you find it odd that his focus would be on my thoughts on your slots replace outs? In his scenario I know that he's a PR, and he's trying to see if based on that whether I think that means your slot is more likely to be PR or scum. There's a reason why he asked that.

Clidd needs to be taken out of the game ASAP.... if you start a wagon on George I will quickhammer him if he gets up to L-1. Clidd is the single greatest threat to both of us. If he did track you and outs that, then your slot would become confirmed scum after both Clidd and Natsu have died.

If we can pull off a George lynch today, then we kill Clidd on night two. Obviously, I will be lynched on day three if I end up quickhammering, but so be it. Then on night three you kill Natsu, assuming we are right about him being TFN. Then on the day four the final three would be {you, Spy, Alora}, and I think that you would have a really good shot at getting Spy to vote for Alora.

If we end up going that route, then I can help you to make a strong case as to why Alora and I are scum together after I flip red. And the only person that you would need to convince of this would be Spy.

Spoiler:

I'm fairly certain that Clidd is going to be deciding who gets lynched today. If he pushes one of us, then whichever one of us that he doesn't push has to bus the other. Hopefully he is genuinely suspicious of Spy; there might be a chance that he ends up leading a push on Spy.

But if he leads a push on one of us and the other fights it, then whichever one of us survives will look bad on day three. If one of us does get run up to L-1, then you or I could fakeclaim jailkeeper. At the very least that might force a massclaim, so we can be 100% certain of the PR situation (even though I think that at this point that we are 99% certain on the PR situation).

But basically, I don't think that either of us can try to take control of the gamestate until Clidd is taken out.

[clidd]

Right now, I lost a game to Mr.72offsuit, I will have to reevaluate my TL analysis on him.

[clidd]

Game: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... start=1075

I will put he as SL, until I engage with him again.

[clidd]

I have more confidence in my read this time.

I still believe my initial impressions about him are valid, but I am deeply uncomfortable by this recent defeat. I need to be absolutely sure that I am on the right track.

[clidd]

clidd's ISO: Overall, TL but I'll be revisiting a few posts later to see if it changes.

As a forewarning, this gets super stream-of-consciousness/ramble-y. You have been warned.

Spoiler:

Post #88 (linked here):

This feels strange thinking about it now. The other game I've played with clidd he took a very active role in the game. Clidd was also town in this other game. I should probably be more suspicious of him than I am right now.


Post #89 (linked here)

I'm not sure I understand what he means by saying that the interaction was done with a 'good intention', but I agree that post #14 looks pretty towny. I'm not a fan of #52, but it was saying why I'm scum so I'm probably kinda biased. Although I suppose if I put my own knee-jerk 'he's wrong' reaction aside, there seems to be a genuine desire there to sort the game (though I'm not sure what to make of the overconfident snippet at the end).


Post #96 (linked here)

I'm a fan of 90% of this post. I don't necessarily agree that all first time scum are going to be more cautious/less loose, and even less so that most "first time" players on this site are legitimately playing their first game of mafia ever (so first time scum on this site may not actually be first time scum period), but this point is super nitpicky and is probably actually correct as often as it's not.


Post #113 (linked here)

This post is saying that I'm town. Ergo, it is 100% correct. More to the point, he's putting a lot more thought into my RVS vote than I did lol... I voted clidd because he was the only person I recognized. Also I'm pretty sure he only hard tunneled onto one person (Homura), but I could be misremembering the game wrong (I've slept since posting there, and I lost a lot of interest in the game once the mass-replacements took place).


Post #114 (linked here)

I've never been a fan of how dismissive you can be. Kinda comes off like you being an asshole. And I feel like I've said that about you before. This comment can also apply to Post #116 (https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p11640894), which wasn't really called for.


Post #121 (linked here)

Again, agree with 90% of this post. In terms of VTs bluffing as PRs, I think being notorious is probably a disadvantage more often than it's an advantage, but this is super nitpicky.


I'm skipping over most of the mason-debacle posts because those have been gone over pretty well by this point and I don't see much point to rehashing it out right now.


Post #317 (linked here)

Swap Elmo and 72offsuit and his reads here mirror mine.


Post #388 (linked here)

On one hand, I don't think scum puts this much effort into a "short summary" of a read on someone. On the other hand, I've been spending about an hour trying to dissect exactly what he's saying through his $10 words and coming up blank, so it feels like he's trying to make it look like he's saying a lot of really insightful stuff without actually saying things that make much sense. I'll come back to this post at some point when I haven't been awake forever on extremely weak sleep.


Post #439 (linked here)

I've found a post that he put away the paint cans for. I feel accomplished.


Post #459 (linked here)

I feel like this post more often comes from a townie mindset than any other mindset. I'd feel pretty confident about this one.

[clidd]

I have more confidence in my read this time.

I still believe my initial impressions about him are valid, but I am deeply uncomfortable by this recent defeat. I need to be absolutely sure that I am on the right track.

I think you should focus more on this present game than on meta. I think i faked meta decently well last time.
Your read is good this time;)

I was very close to catching you, I don't intend to hesitate this time. Evidently, I will know if my read is correct or not.

[clidd]

I'm having a hard time classifying your reaction. I saw similar behavior in two other games, and both came from the red alignment, but that would contradict the lines of honesty I felt in your text.

Forget what I said about "my presence", it's just my normal tone.

The question is:

why do you show so much resistance to the simple conclusion that Menalque is a mason and is trying to solve the game ? I just need to understand this point correctly to start thinking about it.

Hey Clidd, can you post a link to one of the games you had with elmo that you are referring to here in this post?

These quotes were about resemblance in behavior of other players in past games.

Difficulty to understanding things, lack of collaboration and intense disagreement with me are characteristics that I observed in scums players during several games. Especially, these two:

Mini Normal 2118:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=82022 (Insomnia).

Micro 918:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=81962 (Espeonage).

Which were the ones I was mentioning.

[clidd]

Spoiler:

For the moment, I'll go with VOTE: Elmo TeH AzN: as others have pointed out, she seemed to get unduly flustered by Menalque's SR of her.

I believe it is strange in a line of intrigue involving

Menalque

and

Ico

, that you see

Elmo

as the primary element of suspicion.

What is your position in relation to the

mason

case ?

I didn't actually say that she was my primary suspect, though she definitely is in the top three. I just feel that seeing who might actually vote for her instead of just voicing suspicions might provide some information.

As for the mason claims, it's a very weird scenario. Seems a pretty extreme thing for a baddie to come out of nowhere with a mason claim early on day 1. I guess there's a

chance

that perhaps Menalque is bold enough to try something crazy with the prepared defense "I'd never do that as a baddie, it's too crazy". I guess. Anything's possible in werewolf/mafia. He's already recanted, and now says he's just a VT trying unorthodox measures. As for Ico, him being bad seems ever more improbable to me -- him being a real mason appears to be the reason he reacted so strongly to Menalque's ruse. I find it hard to believe that a baddie or vanilla townie would react so strongly to a day 1 mason claim, so I'm also a bit suspicious of Doobie & Lotus who've left their vote on Ico even after the claim.

I fully agree with your position on the case about Ico's reaction to the claim. This fits perfectly with the situation which

town!Ico

finds herself threatened by an imposter in her role.

I'd say Walrus is stating the obvious here. NAI post.

Both !townWalrus and !scumWalrus would post this

Hum, ok. It does not change my agreement with him.

[clidd]

Atarashi Hajimari

, what is your read on

Doobie

now ?

Random question, does it get tiring color coding literally every post you make? I'd get annoyed with trying to keep it up real fast.

To answer your question though, I still dont really like the slot at all, but I'm admittedly having a bit of trouble getting past the newbie-esque feel to her posts to see if its newb-town or newb-scum. I think it's probably the latter, but I'm more confident that eqsy's slot is scum and, if so, doobie is almost certainly the second scum.

Hum, no. I organize myself better with colors.

Maybe

Doobie

needs a second chance. I believe that her vote at

Ico

indicates more confusion than necessarily a biased intention.

Eqsy

, however, seems a good lynch policy.

Are you referring to the no-avi?

Yes, precisely.

[clidd]

. No, my vote doesn't work like that. I'll be hammering or putting someone on L-1 today

...why?

To see how the votes would manifest without the influence of my vote.

In our last game, voting early ended up hurting my playstyle in some ways. I plan to fix that now.

Are you referring primarily to Newbie 1986 here or another game?

Another game.

[clidd]

Prodding WizenedWalrus. This is their first prod.

Sorry for the unexpected absence yesterday. I thought I'd make it back in time to participate last night, but it didn't end up being the case.

I've skimmed through everything, will go back and read more thoroughly here in a bit. I haven't seen anything yet to change my current feelings:

lean bad: elmo, eqsy, doobie
no lean: 72offsuit, clidd
lean good: atarashi, melanque
probably good: Iconeum

[clidd]

I have some questions for you when I get home, 72offsuit.

[clidd]

Clidd

This one is lacking in observations, let alone guesses at alignment. I didn't realise I was drawing such a blank on you til I tried to write this.

Spoiler:

You said initially that you were going to be a support mostly. I was worried about you not really participating but you've been really quite active even if I'm totally null on you at the minute. Your take on 'low energy' is putting my assimilations to shame.

I can't find anything (nil, nada, sweet fa) where you've contradicted yourself, or been anything other than thorough when explaining yourself.

I'm struggling with the views based on playstyle and metas, in a game where anyone can be anyone and nobody has to follow a pattern, but if I had a better understanding of everybody here I'd probably end up incorporating that information into early stage narrowing down/PoE of my theories too. It's not your fault I can't relate to your position r.e having meta's in any game, nor that I don't have access to the knowledge you do in this particular game.

I don't even know what else to add about you from your ISO, but I have a question;

You said you'll L1 or hammer someone- who and why? Or are you happy to jump on any wagon just because the alignment reveal will be at least one sure thing to draw further conclusions from?

Side note- English is your third language? May I ask what the others are? At work I can almost always detect little things within a few sentences and figure it out for myself, but your English is faultless. Better than I see from some (most) native speakers of English!

1.

The player without a profile picture, or any of the others I mentioned in the list of '' uncertain ''. My vote in this game plays an important role in sealing the fate of a player (as I trust my own judgment). In a recent past game, I made the mistake of letting a random player take on that responsibility and it greatly hampered the game (as he was scum). By not voting early, I can better see how the votes are distributed, without the pretext of

'' I was sheeping clidd ''

.

2.

Yes, it is. My first language is spanish and the second is brazilian-portuguese. I have practice with English because of my work, as I have business with foreigners.

3.

My low effort does not mean that I will not participate effectively in the game. It just says that I won't be spending a lot of time on this match, as I have done on some in the past.

I have two examples of high effort here:

Micro 918:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=81962

Newbie 1980:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=81841

Deep meta-dive and complete reading of the setup mechanics are characteristic of my playstyle, but this is very time consuming and stressful to maintain. Especially when the game is not so difficult.

I believe that we will be able to solve this game in two or three days at most.

[clidd]

I'm going to prepare some questions for 72 now.

[clidd]

@ 72offsuit

1.

I believe you don't like me at all, regardless of the alignment you are in. Why did you appear to be more open in post 344, considering that only our reads are similar? why are you being more receptive to me when in the other two games you were totally against my considerations?

2.

Why did you never consider the possibility of me being a scum?

3.

Why do you prefer Walrus over Eqsy as a primary option for lynch?

4.

What would your guess be if you had to speculate who the second mason is?

5.

If Menalque happened to be scum in a hypothetical scenario, who do you think would be most likely to be his partner?

6.

Imagine that you are scum in this game, what would be your D1 strategy?

7.

What would be the possible partner if Hajimari were a scum?

8.

Last question: consider that you are PR in this game, but suddenly you noticed that Menalque and Ico claimed mason. You are, of course, not a mason, but you chose not to reveal yourself to the public. You believe that hiding may be beneficial in a way. Considering that your strategy was not to hold the CC today, what would be your course of action tomorrow?

[clidd]

Ok, I will be waiting.

[clidd]

Im back.

[clidd]

Spoiler:

1 TBC... And this game so far I read you more as being town.

2. I have a townlean on you. I haven;t ruled you out as being mafia, you could most definitely be scum, I just don't see any scum-indicative behaviour so far.

3. I want to pressure Walrus more. There are still 4 days of D1. He is lurking and the posts he has posted don't give me the impression of a townie scum-hunting.

4. I don;t see how you asking me this and me responding to this is pro-town. If you or anyone else can explain and convince me of the benefit of this question, then I'll answer.

5. In the hypothetical scenario that Menal is mason:

Lotus/esqy - most probable, given post 213, where they say they believe the claim

NOT Ico - I doubt ico would have agreed to this plan and the response from ico was quite emphatic, felt like genuine frustration to mena's claim.
NOT Elmo - due to post 168 where she calls it a bad claim and because mena scumreads her
NOT me - because mena scum-read me

6. D1 strategy is to lynch the townie that I could most effectively paint as being scummy that looks like genuine scumhunting.

7. If Ata is scum, current read would be probably within {Clidd, Elmo, Walrus or Doobie} - middle tiers in reads list

8. I'd probably tentatively guess that its vanilla townie vs vanilla townie claiming masons
Depends on the night kill, depends on what my exact PR role was and what result i got from my night action.
If I had a guilty-ish/mafia-indicative report, I would allow for some scumhunting by town to proceed, see what evolves out of the mason claim situation if nethier claim died, and then out it towards the middle of the day: to allow for scumhunting early on, but to also allow enough time at the end of day for discussion of the report, my claim, and planning for the days ahead.

Hum.

I'm having a hard time distinguishing your behavior. There are some suggestive traits in your answers that match the scenario in which I would answer the same questions.

[clidd]

I am imagining that, considering that you know the process by which I formulate my

TLs

, you could emulate a behavior that I expect from a

town!72

. In the last game,

scum!72

used the same reaction as

town!you

before I hammered in the other game, that you were town, and took advantage of my empathy to sow doubt in my decisions..

[clidd]

In this sense, my emotional read conflicts with my rational read, considering your recent chain of thoughts.

One says that you're

town

, and one says that you're

scum

.

[clidd]

[clidd]

there is no sense of logical

/townie

thinking

in those reads from doobie

this is why doobie is town, btw

I had games in which players had difficulty understanding what I was typing and usually stated what Ico said (I was town in those games).

Yes, I can understand why you think

Doobie

is town.

[clidd]

72 is a good lynch, but idk about the partner

I was thinking Elmo earlier but they kind of seemed town in some of their stuff?

and their push on walrus makes me think it's not walrus, also I don't particularly read walrus as anything yet

I would normally say that I disagree, but I am truly affected by my recent defeat against scum!72.

[clidd]

My mind needs more time to think. I'll be back later.

[clidd]

Honestly, worst game ever.

( https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=82166 )

[clidd]

Spoiler:

Wow, this game is literally 1987 on repeat.

1. What scum motivation would i have for "townleaning" you itstead of "townreading" you
Actually stop and check yourself for a second, and actually ask yourself the question.
Do you think that! ScumMe is planning to shade you and then lynch you Tomorrow or what?
Correct, i dont have any strong reads either way because im town.

2. Re: Doobie im still unsure either way.

3. Lootz' post 409 is not townmotivated.

Yes 1 scum for 1 PR is an excellent trade. NOOONE is disputing this obvious fact.

Like we have already discussed ad nauseum, scum claiming mason is very unlikely. Asking for any existing PRs to CC if they exist is just a ridiculous statement imo.
The odds of a PR existing is like 2 percent.

Post 409 is the sort of post that is trying to appear town. Its LAMISTY which is one reason why its scummy.
Secondly its dealing with the unlikely rather than the probable.

Its basically the epitome of the wiki when you look up:

Balancing Possibilities Versus Probabilities

So i think your Lootz read is off.

I think we should lynch Lootz.

nah, go sleep, you're good for now, I need to sort other people

72 is a good lynch, but idk about the partner

I was thinking Elmo earlier but they kind of seemed town in some of their stuff?

and their push on walrus makes me think it's not walrus, also I don't particularly read walrus as anything yet

This bothers me. Prior to the afk you basically grill me with questions. Then you conclude with, " im going to sort other slots out" ... Which you dont really do and then you return and basically just say "ye 72 is a good lynch".

VOTE: Esqy

UNVOTE: Unvote

FoS: esqy

Current lynch priority is Eqsy -> 72off/doobie, Walrus

You earlier say that probs both scum are in these 4.
So who are the scum partners in these 4?

nobody is interested in my doobie case

and i did agree with the last or so post 72off made, which makes me vote lootz (ok lynch, if this is scum then i will no longer wrongly scumread 72off, if that flips town then 72off can be the next lynch)

I don't really understand this. You say you agree with my read on esqy, but if esqy flips town then you want me lynched tomorrow, despite others making cases against esqy.

nobody is interested in my doobie case

and i did agree with the last or so post 72off made, which makes me vote lootz (ok lynch, if this is scum then i will no longer wrongly scumread 72off, if that flips town then 72off can be the next lynch)

It's not that I'm not interested, its that I dont see them being particularly scummy, unlike Lootz.
Most of my games to date at least 1 scum has been in the null-reads-area.

VOTE: Esqy

L-1

Do NOT hammer Esqy until Esqy has reported in. Otherwise you are claiming scum.

[clidd]

This sequence seems to me a strong indicator of town mentality.

[clidd]

This sequence seems to me a strong indicator of town mentality.

i was liking his recent posts from 72off

how do you feel about about a current townblock consisting of clidd/ico/walrus/atari/72?

this is a strong basis

I don't like walrus on it. The rest seems good.

[clidd]

I'm still trying to be careful with 72, as he manipulated his meta last time.

But with the recent posts, I believe that his intention tends more towards green alignment than the opposite.

[clidd]

Walrus has 10 posts, and we're going to post 604. I'm still trying to figure out how to interpret this.

[clidd]

I have a past game (newbie too), in which a player acted similarly to him, with few posts and an apparently harmless tone.

He was scum, so I am no longer townreading inactivity anymore.

[clidd]

This: ( https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=82235 ) --> Player

ceejayvinoya

.

[clidd]

''

clidd: has posted quite a few thorough analysis posts, but the lack of a desire to vote from a clear-thinking player does raise the eyebrow of suspicion somewhat. Another thing that seemed odd to me was that in the postgame thread of the game he keeps linking to, he posted that he likes to take insane risks 1078, which seems to go against the way he had appeared to me from reading this game (careful and logical thinker). So still not sure of him

''

[clidd]

Just to add:

I take risks when I am PR, which is not the case in this game. If you notice, in both games that I insist on linking I have an important role in each one.

However, the fact that you are interested in readind these games, even with a low post, shows a interest in the accuracy of yours reads, and it also implies that you care about the result more than what we think.

I have a TL on you now.

[clidd]

I'm holding my vote for now. I don't want to use it early.

Evidently I'll be following your lead, so you don't have to worry about that.

[clidd]

I said in the sense of directing the vote. I am already working with you.

I have a mental vote on Eqsy.

[clidd]

Seriously I said

IF THEY GET REPLACED

I wish people would read what I said and understand this. As I've been a person who's replaced into games just to die 10 posts later.

Yes it's happened in newbie games.

[clidd]

@Mod

foi solicitado uma substituição do jogador

EqsyLootz

.

[clidd]

@Mod

we asked to replace the player

EqsyLootz

(correction).

[clidd]

To elaborate, I like that Ico decided to remove themselves from the wagon for the time being in order to give Eqsy a chance to respond, not necessarily due to a change of heart on the read of the slot but due to reluctance of possibly lynching a town- how I feel also*

Or at least that's my current interpretation.

I suppose it could also indicate Ico/Eqsy scum pair by unvoting but like with Elmo this would be an unavoidable FoS later. Could also provide plausible deniabilty if infact Ico does want Eqsy lynched but wants to seem unsure. Ooooh :/

*(this shared approach was also a contributing factor on my TL of Elmo before she mentioned quickhammering. Will have to reevaluate)

''

I suppose it could also indicate Ico/Eqsy scum

''

- What ? ok, Doobie

[clidd]

This girl messes with my head. I can't imagine a scenario that makes sense to keep insisting on scum!Ico.

[clidd]

As I understand it, Doobie is still thinking about the scum!Ico theory.

[clidd]

So I am saying that i can't see a scenario that makes sense for town!Doobie to keep thinking about that.

[clidd]

You're saying that Doobie is scum ?

[clidd]

[clidd]

I don't disagree, but I find it strange that he is working hard on this thesis.

[clidd]

By common sense, he must know he is wrong. So, why insist on that ?

[clidd]

Oh, it's She. She's confusing me, lel.

[clidd]

[clidd]

This game is playing with my sanity. 72 and Doobie are the main reasons.

[clidd]

i think this is clidd town meta?

[clidd]

Some say that if I am not replaced in a game, I am in my town meta. I vehemently deny this premise as it is against the rules, but curiously I am town in this game.

[clidd]

So all scum in (72, walrus, clidd, jormen)

Half os this is wrong.

[clidd]

Doubt that 72 and walrus are scum together

I agree.

[clidd]

I will try to catch up properly later today, if not then it’ll be tomorrow

Jormen would be okay potentially

I think I prefer 72 or maybe clidd

I feel like clidd has been very obviously town in his other games and he’s not here which is making me want to lynch him

Don't forget you have a BoP, if scum didn't get lynched today and tomorrow, you're likely scum

[clidd]

I have a mental vote on Jorman.

[clidd]

Elmo doobie Icon town

??

Ok, SL on Menalque.

[clidd]

and yeah my doobie case stands:

you claim mason and I counterclaim you: doobie townreads you for the fake claim and scumreads me on the counterclaim

i don't like it

I think you dislike it because (1) it’s very out there and (2) it’s aimed at you and that’s affecting your judgement

I don’t think scum think they’re getting a lynch on either of us and I don’t think a new new player tries that

@Icon
I agree with menal's statement that 'its affecting your judgement as it's aimed at you'
You seem to overly strongly scumread Doobie. I'm not getting townvibes from the slot, feels like a null-scumlean, but it does not feel like the scummiest slot.

I'm not getting any good vibes of jorge to change my mind on that slot.

How is it null and scumlean at the same time ?

[clidd]

Elmo doobie Icon town

??

Ok, SL on Menalque.

Ye, I'm starting to get worse vibes off menal, insisting that I'm scum and townreading elmo and doobie.
If menal is scum, he is probs teamed with Elmo or doobie.

Maybe town!Mena is not having good reads this game, but scum!Mena would explain why he did that CC. I was townreading him before these recent reads came out.

[clidd]

Still prefer Jorgen first, then elmo as the lynches if I had the choice.

I don't do anymore preflip associations, but if I had, Jorgen flipping scum makes Elmo unlikely to be scum.

[clidd]

My town solve --> [Clidd,Ico,Hajimari,72]
BoP cage--> [Menalque] *Guilty Lion stopped being active in the forum after leaving this game, so I believe that the replacement has a town peculiarity , but this is in contrast with the current reads of Menalque *
Pool to lynch --> [Jormengand,Walrus, Elmo, Doobie]

[clidd]

I have intent to hammer, waiting for your beg.

[clidd]

Because you are town. It is not obvious ?

[clidd]

I had a doubt that scum!72 was manipulating his meta to look town, but after I followed your progression so far, I suppose my behavioral analysis of you was correct.

So the premise of 72 + Walrus pair automatically becomes unlikely because of one side being town.

[clidd]

Karnage MVP !

[clidd]

Excellent game, Datisi. Everyone fulfilled their roles well and Elmo surprised me with her scum game.

I feel like I underestimated her.