Newbie 1989 (Game over!)

[WizenedWalrus]

Hi all,

I've skimmed through the thread, and to be honest I feel pretty lost. I've played a few online mafia/werewolf games at another site, but this is my first game here, and the terminology and abbreviations everyone is using here are foreign to me, so I'll take a while to adjust I imagine.

Looking at the setup notes, it doesn't look like it's possible to have masons and another flavor of power townie in the game at the same time, or am I misunderstanding the table?

Off to a meeting, but will get back to re-reading over lunch.

[WizenedWalrus]

terminology and abbreviations everyone is using here are foreign to me

What terms?

terms like: SSS, PoE, etc. and also how to read stuff like (term)!(term) -- I kinda guess based on the color coding, but not really sure how you're supposed to parse that. I think there were a few more things in the rules as I was skimming through them, but can't remember off the top of my head.

[WizenedWalrus]

For the moment, I'll go with VOTE: Elmo TeH AzN: as others have pointed out, she seemed to get unduly flustered by Menalque's SR of her.

[WizenedWalrus]

For the moment, I'll go with VOTE: Elmo TeH AzN: as others have pointed out, she seemed to get unduly flustered by Menalque's SR of her.

I believe it is strange in a line of intrigue involving

Menalque

and

Ico

, that you see

Elmo

as the primary element of suspicion.

What is your position in relation to the

mason

case ?

I didn't actually say that she was my primary suspect, though she definitely is in the top three. I just feel that seeing who might actually vote for her instead of just voicing suspicions might provide some information.

As for the mason claims, it's a very weird scenario. Seems a pretty extreme thing for a baddie to come out of nowhere with a mason claim early on day 1. I guess there's a

chance

that perhaps Menalque is bold enough to try something crazy with the prepared defense "I'd never do that as a baddie, it's too crazy". I guess. Anything's possible in werewolf/mafia. He's already recanted, and now says he's just a VT trying unorthodox measures. As for Ico, him being bad seems ever more improbable to me -- him being a real mason appears to be the reason he reacted so strongly to Menalque's ruse. I find it hard to believe that a baddie or vanilla townie would react so strongly to a day 1 mason claim, so I'm also a bit suspicious of Doobie & Lotus who've left their vote on Ico even after the claim.

[WizenedWalrus]

For the moment, I'll go with VOTE: Elmo TeH AzN: as others have pointed out, she seemed to get unduly flustered by Menalque's SR of her.

In a game of mafia information is key. The less scum have the less they know about the setup.
So you are saying I shouldn't have lost it over someone claiming a PR to lure a NK and then ousting a PR for nothing?

Not sure where you have played but I come from the old times where this was just ignorant to do. You just did nothing to help the town with it. And it's more the surface level on why I got frustrated.

You're right of course, about it being bad that we've leaked information about the setup to the baddies. Now they know what sort of power townies they have to deal with, and will plan accordingly.

However, it didn't seem to me that you were reacting to the information leak, but rather to the fact that the finger was being pointed at you. I could possibly have misread though, I've been speed-reading/skimming everything to try and catch up. I'll go back and reread.

[WizenedWalrus]

Riddle me this. Why are we solving this game on day one?

Isn't the point of the game to solve it? Why wouldn't we start on day one?

[WizenedWalrus]

For the moment, I'll go with VOTE: Elmo TeH AzN: as others have pointed out, she seemed to get unduly flustered by Menalque's SR of her.

I know this is super early day 1, but this honestly feels like a bus-vote to me.

I'll vote Player X "for the moment" - a vote just for the record, but not for pressure - votes are meant to ramp up pressure on potential scum.
Basically forecasting that your vote has little oomph/intent behind it, gives me a scummy vibe.

I believe that my vote & explanation shows a level of intent appropriately reflecting the evidence that led me to cast it.

Now that you've said your current vote was only fishing for who would join that bandwagon, any reason for not unvoting or voting for someone else?

[WizenedWalrus]

Prodding WizenedWalrus. This is their first prod.

Sorry for the unexpected absence yesterday. I thought I'd make it back in time to participate last night, but it didn't end up being the case.

I've skimmed through everything, will go back and read more thoroughly here in a bit. I haven't seen anything yet to change my current feelings:

lean bad: elmo, eqsy, doobie
no lean: 72offsuit, clidd
lean good: atarashi, melanque
probably good: Iconeum

[WizenedWalrus]

In the hypothetical situation, if we were at the end of today and I had the hammer and could choose between the 3, I would go for Walrus.

This is a bit surprising to me, given what's been posted so far. I can understand a measure of suspicion on me, as I haven't been as active as some others, but objectively, I think the case for lynching others is much stronger than for me, so I'm surprised you say you'd go for me first.

Reading back through your ISO, re: 339: you appear to have had a problem with my setup question. There was a specific reason I asked it (which I note was ignored by everyone who responded to me; though they did respond to other portions of the post). I'll provide the details if it becomes relevant.

Re: 340: responded to this already in 382, where I also pointed out that despite developments, your vote was still on Menalque.

That's pretty much all I see that I can respond to, not sure what else I can say.

[WizenedWalrus]

Yeah, on balance I'm now leaning more to VOTE: EqsyLootz, as the failure to produce the promised read list and the strong reaction to being called on it appears scum-indicative.

[WizenedWalrus]

while i'm not exactly convinced by the readlist he provided

So, my readlist was:

lean bad: elmo, eqsy, doobie
no lean: 72offsuit, clidd
lean good: atarashi, melanque
probably good: Iconeum

FWIW, a bit more detail on the suspect list:

elmo

: Main suspicion was due to a couple of seeming unnecessarily strong reactions early on (i.e. 117, 164). Re-reading now, I do kind of like the points raised in 441 though.

eqsy

: first few posts after joining gave me the sense that he would be an active participant, but that seems to have fizzled with only a partially-completed readslist, never clarified what he saw as lotus' mistakes.

doobie

: gameplay makes absolutely no sense to me, I cannot fathom why a pro-town player would leave their vote so long on someone almost assured to the a power townie

72offsuit

: a few negative posts gave me a bad feeling (i.e. 345), seemed overly eager to prove himself to Melanque.

clidd

: has posted quite a few thorough analysis posts, but the lack of a desire to vote from a clear-thinking player does raise the eyebrow of suspicion somewhat. Another thing that seemed odd to me was that in the postgame thread of the game he keeps linking to, he posted that he likes to take insane risks 1078, which seems to go against the way he had appeared to me from reading this game (careful and logical thinker). So still not sure of him.

[WizenedWalrus]

So in the event eqsy flips green we lynch Elmo 10/10 times right?

Town logic is great sometimes. Because I'm saving the mod some effort you want to policy? This game.

No. You want to lynch a slot before it has the chance to post. That's scummy. Period.

No its called moving on with the game. The point is moot though.
Lynch a spot that's said and done nothing with this game. Yet everyone was calling for the spot to be killed a few days ago when the person went AWOL. So it's scummy that I wanted the game to move on?
Seriously the logic behind this is such a fallacy I don't get it.

Yeah, actually, it is scummy that you want the game to move on, since the alternative was for someone else to come along and add more information to the game. The logic seems pretty clear.

[WizenedWalrus]

Maybe I want the game to move at a reasonable pace and am just tired of replacements? Its a bit much to have one spot be replaced 3x. Hate to tell you this.

I guess it's reasonable to feel a level of frustration at that. This is the first time I've played in a game with replacements. It's.... different.

[WizenedWalrus]

Maybe I want the game to move at a reasonable pace and am just tired of replacements? Its a bit much to have one spot be replaced 3x. Hate to tell you this.

I guess it's reasonable to feel a level of frustration at that. This is the first time I've played in a game with replacements. It's.... different.

So you've played before? Is this an alternate account?

As I mentioned before, I've played a few games on a different site. It was quite different, with different terminology, phases had hard time limits (usually only a day, two days on weekends), with the vote leader at the end of the day being lynched instead of needing a certain number of votes, there were no replacements, etc.

This is my first game on this site.

[WizenedWalrus]

Case for doobie definitely looking stronger now.

72 has seemed somewhat suspect with his reactions to menal's play.

I still have a lot of doubt about elmo though. Reading back, I see a lot of overreactions that just seem scummy to me.

[WizenedWalrus]

Player by player:

Jormengand: Absolutely positively the worst.
Doobietime: Seems to be trying to cover bases in a very unusual way, and the thing where she FoSed a counterclaim, got an entire explanation of why that's a bad idea and then went... "Yeah okay sure I can't convince you", I dunno, that seems potentially suspicious.
Clidd: No real read so town on balance of probabilities, probably. If mafia, doing a good job of pretending not to be.
72: In general, I don't like people going "Aha, I have reasons but I'm not gonna tell you!" like in #565, but I know that's in a lot of people's townrange. There's nothing really suspicious about him, but nothing massively exonerating either.
Atarashi: Some decent analysis that makes me want to lean town, but I'm not sure. While I'm not happy that they've been spending a decent amount of time pointing at people who are now me, I'm not certain I can blame them, so I probably lean town on them.
WizenedWalrus: Hasn't had a great deal of chance to post but has been scumhunting a decent bit. Maybe a little eager to jump on people given a chance? Probably town but I'm not certain.
Elmo: A lot of her early reasoning seems to make more sense in context, but I don't totally appreciate someone trying to kill me before I even get a chance to speak.
Menalque: I know that there

exist

town players who make gambits like that, but unfortunately, I don't know Menalque enough to know if he would do that as town but I suspect the answer is "No". Unless he's known for making that kind of gambit?
Iconeum: Conversely, I don't think it would make the CC as mafia. Reads as town to me. I can sorta see the arguments against, but I don't really.

OK. So i can see you have a few town leans in there, but not really any specific scumleans.
In the

hypothetical situation

of you having the hammer right at this moment, who would you lynch?

I'm not really suspicious of myself (duh), Clidd, 72, Atarashi, Wizened or Icon, so it would have to be Doobie, Elmo or Menalque. I think Doobie's more SR, Elmo's more SL, and Menalque more just kinda suspicious, so if I had a king vote and no time left to use it, I would probably take off Doobie's head, though I could be persuaded otherwise.

So, where does a baddie stick their partner in this list? Along with himself, clidd, atarashi, wizened, icon, or with doobie, elmo, menalque?

[WizenedWalrus]

Clidd was alrdy going to hammer anyway.

this is a way too easy of a dismissal of what Elmo did

FWIW, that was my feeling when it went down yesterday, that elmo was only voting to try for townie cred, especially as clidd had already announced that he was going to vote for jormengand.

Anyhow, looking at the voting records so far:

Iconeum

:
29: day 1 hang vote from iconeum for atarashi (atarashi,menalque,clidd,iconeum,jormengand,doobietime:1)
49: day 1 hang vote from iconeum for jormengand (jormengand:3; menalque,iconeum,doobietime:1)
145: day 1 hang vote from iconeum for menalque (menalque:2; atarashi,jormengand,iconeum,doobietime:1)
206: day 1 hang vote from iconeum for menalque (menalque:3; iconeum,atarashi:1)
269: day 1 hang vote from iconeum rescinding the hang vote that was previously cast for for menalque (iconeum,menalque:2)
531: day 1 hang vote from iconeum for doobietime (jormengand:2; iconeum,walrus,doobietime,clidd:1)
574: day 1 hang vote from iconeum for jormengand (jormengand:3; clidd,iconeum:1)
597: day 1 hang vote from iconeum rescinding the hang vote that was previously cast for for jormengand (jormengand:3; iconeum,clidd:1)
680: day 1 hang vote from iconeum for doobietime (jormengand:3; clidd,doobietime:1)
690: day 1 hang vote from iconeum rescinding the hang vote that was previously cast for for doobietime (jormengand:3; clidd:1)
726: day 1 hang vote from iconeum for jormengand (jormengand:4; clidd:1)

Very strong & active voting pattern; along with the uncontested mason claim icon is almost certainly town, in spite of the odd night kill.

atarashi

:
7: day 1 hang vote from atarashi for clidd (clidd:1)
42: day 1 hang vote from atarashi for jormengand (jormengand:2; menalque,iconeum,atarashi,doobietime:1)
147: day 1 hang vote from atarashi for menalque (menalque:3; doobietime,atarashi,iconeum:1)
162: day 1 hang vote from atarashi rescinding the hang vote that was previously cast for for menalque (menalque:2; doobietime,iconeum,atarashi:1)
300: day 1 hang vote from atarashi for jormengand (menalque,iconeum:2; jormengand:1)
758: day 2 hang vote from atarashi for doobietime (doobietime:2)

Early interaction with lotus has them looking credible, and the way they went back to pushing for lotus after the dust settled between menalque & iconeum make it seem more likely they are town.

menalque

:
9: day 1 hang vote from menalque for iconeum (clidd,iconeum:1)
62: day 1 hang vote from menalque for elmo (jormengand:2; iconeum,doobietime,atarashi,menalque,elmo:1)
82: day 1 hang vote from menalque rescinding the hang vote that was previously cast for for elmo (jormengand:2; menalque,iconeum,atarashi,doobietime:1)
744: day 2 hang vote from menalque for 72offsuit (72offsuit:1)
745: day 2 hang vote from menalque for doobietime (doobietime:1)

As pro-town as menalque has seemed, this slot's record doesn't actually look all that good. guiltylion voted for elmo when the pressure was on lotus.

72offsuit

:
13: day 1 hang vote from 72offsuit for jormengand (doobietime,jormengand,iconeum,clidd:1)
53: day 1 hang vote from 72offsuit for atarashi (jormengand:2; iconeum,doobietime,menalque,atarashi:1)
223: day 1 hang vote from 72offsuit for menalque (menalque:3; iconeum:2)
396: day 1 hang vote from 72offsuit for walrus (jormengand,menalque,walrus,elmo,iconeum:1)
559: day 1 hang vote from 72offsuit for jormengand (jormengand:3; doobietime,iconeum,clidd:1)
562: day 1 hang vote from 72offsuit rescinding the hang vote that was previously cast for for jormengand (jormengand:2; doobietime,iconeum,clidd:1)
583: day 1 hang vote from 72offsuit for jormengand (jormengand:4; clidd,iconeum:1)
766: day 2 hang vote from 72offsuit for doobietime (doobietime:3)
776: day 2 hang vote from 72offsuit for doobietime (doobietime:3)

First vote for jormengand was RVS, so not much cred gained there, especially as they switched to vote atarashi when lotus got to three votes. Not sure if they every explained their unvote in #562. Was very defensive under questioning by menalque.

A lot of what he's pointing out about elmo does seem to ring true to me though.

doobietime

:
56: day 1 hang vote from doobietime for iconeum (jormengand,iconeum:2; atarashi,menalque,doobietime:1)
623: day 1 hang vote from doobietime rescinding the hang vote that was previously cast for for iconeum (jormengand:3; clidd:1)

Um, yeah. doobie's voting record is horrible. Looks very much like n00b baddie, especially with the choice of night kill. If we don't hear something convincing from her, no real choice but to lynch her.

elmo

:
10: day 1 hang vote from elmo for doobietime (iconeum,doobietime,clidd:1)
192: day 1 hang vote from elmo for menalque (menalque:3; atarashi,iconeum:1)
441: day 1 hang vote from elmo for clidd (iconeum,jormengand,elmo,clidd,walrus:1)
737: day 1 hang vote from elmo for jormengand (jormengand:5)
812: day 2 hang vote from elmo for 72offsuit (doobietime:3; 72offsuit:1)

The vote for menalque was understandable, given his play.
The vote for clidd seemed pro-town and raised some good points about his lack of voting.
Arguing against getting another replacement for the lotus spot seemed odd and anti-town, limiting the info we'd have to work with.
I still don't understand why the hammer for jormengand when clidd had already said he was going to hammer in 729.
Used the same "lining up lynches" reasoning when voting for 72 today, as used for clidd yesterday.

So, at this point, unless we here something amazing from doobie, I'm thinking we should probably hang doobie today. The two noob baddie scenario seems pretty plausible, although this post gives me a little doubt: 18 -- would a baddie really post this about their teammate??

I feel I need to find some time to read back the early part of the game before I joined in more detail; I should have some time for that after lunch.

[WizenedWalrus]

Sorry guys, been real busy at work dealing with corona-related changes in workflow. I hope everyone else effected all the best, especially doobie, get better. I think I should hit a lull tomorrow morning, and should have more time for analysis then.

Haven't had time to do much but skim the latest, my reads at the moment:

suspect list: BP, 72, elmo
town lean: atarashi
probably town: menalque
almost certainly town: iconeum

BP: you said something about me flip-flopping, which didn't ring true to me at all. What are you talking about?

By default. Again, they can change into a town read. What I was trying to convey was that even tho I don't instinctively like people who try to lead, they can still vibe in townie green. Ico does. The only thing stopping me putting him higher in my townreads is the fact he's leading this. I'm wary of that because it's too good of a spot for scum.

Um, what? Walk me through the scenario where ico is bad please?

[WizenedWalrus]

You lean scum, along with walrus. I'd say it's one of you. Plus, you both tick my "was on the prev scum wagon" box.

Updated readlist:

town: Elmo
townish: Menal, Ico
Null: atari
Scummish: walrus, 72.

With only one bad guy left in the game, and a mason claim in play, the only way icon could be bad would be if we have two power townies who have let the claim stand instead of just coming out and saying "Icon is lying, let's lynch him and end the game". Given that, I don't see how you could possibly rank elmo ahead of icon.

Also, is there a reason you're not voting for anyone?

A bit more seriously is that Doobie straight up admitted this was her first game ever, and that's pretty cool. Dunno 'bout the rest of ya, but I'm not gonna vote for her during D1 unless she does something super scummy at any point. Just so she can actually play the game a bit, y'know?

This actual feels like scum-buddying.

Yes, it does. Main reason I'm looking more at you & elmo today.

At the moment, I'm leaning toward voting 72, as I see in the voting record he left a RVS vote on lotus, but quickly changed once she got a couple of votes. He also switched to vote for eqzylootz shortly after I had, despite previously stating that he found me suspicious.

[WizenedWalrus]

You lean scum, along with walrus. I'd say it's one of you. Plus, you both tick my "was on the prev scum wagon" box.

Updated readlist:

town: Elmo
townish: Menal, Ico
Null: atari
Scummish: walrus, 72.

With only one bad guy left in the game, and a mason claim in play, the only way icon could be bad would be if we have two power townies who have let the claim stand instead of just coming out and saying "Icon is lying, let's lynch him and end the game". Given that, I don't see how you could possibly rank elmo ahead of icon.

Also, is there a reason you're not voting for anyone?

A bit more seriously is that Doobie straight up admitted this was her first game ever, and that's pretty cool. Dunno 'bout the rest of ya, but I'm not gonna vote for her during D1 unless she does something super scummy at any point. Just so she can actually play the game a bit, y'know?

This actual feels like scum-buddying.

Yes, it does. Main reason I'm looking more at you & elmo today.

At the moment, I'm leaning toward voting 72, as I see in the voting record he left a RVS vote on lotus, but quickly changed once she got a couple of votes. He also switched to vote for eqzylootz shortly after I had, despite previously stating that he found me suspicious.

I had a

slight scumlean

on you based off

gut

only after your first handful of posts.

You're voting analysis doesn't ring true as to why I am scum. You are saying I chose to bus, had a change of mind not to bus, and then again chose to bus?

No, I said you had an early throwaway vote that you moved when it took off, then only moved it back once it looked like it was inevitable.

Looking back:

UNVOTE: Unvote

FoS: esqy

Why unvote?

I have my reasons. I'll keep to myself for now.

Did you ever explain this unvote?

[WizenedWalrus]

So yeah, it's looking like VOTE: 72 is in order.

[WizenedWalrus]

Yeah, no need to rush.

UNVOTE: for now. FoS on 72.

I should have a little time to give a full read of everyone after my morning meetings. Hard to see past 72 at the moment, due to the clidd kill (who had all but cleared him), which also appeared designed to point the finger of suspicion at doobie (the only a noob would not kill the mason argument).

[WizenedWalrus]

So yesterday I was pretty close to switching to vote 72. The reason I did not feel comfortable with that was mainly because BP put someone higher in his town reads than iconeum, he never answered the posts I addressed to him, and he never cast a vote for anyone.

I think the 72 killing clidd theory works for two reasons: made the kill seem more likely to have been perpetrated by a n00b, and guaranteed that clidd would not change his mind about him again.

Elmo has seemed suspicious to me through the game. There is zero cred for putting the final vote on the baddie, since it was pretty clear that they were going to go, clidd had already said he was going to hammer. Elmo jumping in to hammer looked strongly like a baddie resigning themselves to the fact that their teammate was gone, and wanting to get some credit for it.

Atarashi led the charge against the lotus slot on day 1, and has seemed very townie to me, especially 37 doesn't seem like something one baddie teammate types to another at the beginning of a game.

The possibility of Menalque being bad is something that bothers me, as I don't know that I'd be able to read him one way or the other. He's seemed very pro-town, but also seems just crazy enough to be able to pull off a gambit like fake-claiming mason to find the real PTs. My biggest reason for trusting him is basically trusting in Icon's read. Also, if I'm not mistaken, at the time he came into the game I believe lotus was under a lot of pressure. Would he, with the partner already under pressure, do something as high-risk as fake-claiming mason? I mean, I get the feeling he likes to take risks, but I also get the impression that he likes to win. So I'm not sure a crazy gambit with a partner already under pressure is something he would do. I could be wrong of course, but in my mind it seems more likely that the final baddie is in 72/elmo.

Also, looking at lotus' & jorgengand's posts, I see that lotus raised suspicions about elmo (214), never mentioned 72, and seemed to be convinced by menalque. Jorgengand's list was uneven 734 -- I think he's be more likely to hide his baddie partner in the longer list. Doobie, elmo, and menalque were all in the shorter list, while 72 was in the longer one.

On balance, the case for 72 seems the strongest to me.

[WizenedWalrus]

Actually, I forgot there was that 3rd person in the 1st scum slot: eqsylootz. Re-reading their ISO, toward the end, they also pointed the finger at elmo 507. IMO, this also weakens the case against elmo. They also did a deep dive on atarashi right away 406 and doobie 407. Never mentioned 72 or menalque.

[WizenedWalrus]

walrus, vote 72

I want to give him the chance to make a strong argument for you to be the baddie first.

As much as the other baddies mentioned elmo, I think it's got to be between the two of you now.

[WizenedWalrus]

walrus, vote 72

I want to give him the chance to make a strong argument for you to be the baddie first.

As much as the other baddies mentioned elmo, I think it's got to be between the two of you now.

Lol, this feels like it could be Walrus buttering up Elmo in preparation for 3 way LYLO tomorrow.

Wow, so you can't even make a case for anyone else? If you were really town, I'd think you'd at least try.

[WizenedWalrus]

I wanna get to endgame already

I'd rather end the game than enter the endgame. It kind of sounds like you don't think a 72 hang will end the game.

If not 72, then who is the last baddie?

[WizenedWalrus]

Meh, after re-reading everything, I'm fine with VOTE: 72offsuit.

He keeps on bringing up the same weak & tired points that I already responded to (like here:493), but never responds to responses.

If it doesn't turn out to be him, then tomorrow will be a real headache. On the surface, it would seem that it's got to be elmo, but a couple of baddies did kind of point the finger at her which doesn't make much sense. Atarashi seems unlikely, the way they returned to focus on lotus after the mason face-off, but you never know in mafia. Or is menalque really 300000 IQ'ing us all as icon wondered in 787 (clidd was killed after reminding everyone of the BoP and saying mena was acting suspicious 728).

Oh well, menalque has been pushing 72 for a long time now, hopefully it ends here and the burden of proficiency is fulfilled.

[WizenedWalrus]

Yeah, I think it's been painfully obvious since yesterday who the last mason is. Atarashi all but shouted it out here 996.

So why didn't you kill the mason last night? One of you must've though that I'd vote the wrong way today.

Gonna have to go out and buy a new thinking cap for this one...

[WizenedWalrus]

So, reading back kind of randomly, I have a couple questions.

@menalque: you didn't vote for anyone on day 1. Lots of activity, lots of posts, but no vote. Why was that?

@elmo: You voted 72 on day2, when we hanged BP, but did not vote on day 3 -- you were the only non-voter. Why was that?

[WizenedWalrus]

Wow that's weird.

Guess at this point I'll just VOTE: elmo, as I feel about 75% sure it's her, and hope for the best.

[WizenedWalrus]

lol I barely even looked at the thread other than the dead/alive spoilers and the day 4 claims

Easiest “win” I’ve ever had

Yeah, I was actually planning on waiting until Monday for a final decision so I'd have time to go over everything thoroughly, but felt bad that someone new might spend a ton of time going over this, and I thought the case for Elmo was a lot stronger, so I ended it as soon as I saw Menalque drop out.