Mini Normal 2125: Chiptune Mafia [The End]

[Something_Smart]

Hi.

[Something_Smart]

All right, Taly's locktown :3

What do you need help with?

[Something_Smart]

I just towncased two widely suspected lynch targets

Y'shtola/Blake

and

Fuzzy

. Both of them scumread each other, and are the FEW people with HONEST townreads/mixed-reads on me.

I have two people with incredibly opposing read views on me

NDMath

says I'm town,

Churros

- a replacement, is hardpushing me as sucm.

Majority of the town is focused on suspecting me but not quite resolving me. My impact this game is incredibly hot/cold (cold for the longer period of time) as half of the plist has dominated this thread.

(Luca/Ame (replaced out)/Paragon/Pops/Taly)

I still have 9 more ISOs to go I think? We got 4 days.

So what do you want ME to do? Just give feedback on your cases?

I hate long cases, fwiw. I believe that if you have 20 different points that all support the same conclusion, they are probably mostly confirmation bias, and you can boil it down to the 3 or 4 really relevant ones. Of course, doing ISO's is different from that, but I think it's unreasonable to expect everyone to read and process all that, especially if you do one for every single slot. You should pick out the few key things you want to discuss for each person.

[Something_Smart]

I haven't read anything yet, by the way. I'm not sure if I'm going to or not.

[Something_Smart]

Well, what would you like me to do? You did say you wanted my help.

[Something_Smart]

Major Insight
Tbh at this moment, Y'shtola only makes sense as scum if she has AT LEAST ONE PARTNER in {Luca/Ame/Pops/Paragon} by 1007's post and the consistent suspicion on her from the more active players to be bus-minded. But then again, I think Y'shtola is town based off what I'm seeing, so this is just a boundary on the realities I can see her as scum.

I don't know, Y'shtola being scum in a reality that's not like the above... like bravo, how the fuck can this be faked? I want to be challenged on this.

Let's talk about this then. Can you explain it in a bit more depth? Where did that list come from?

[Something_Smart]

Are you talking about the partner list of {Luca/Ame/Pops/Paragon}?

Yeah.

[Something_Smart]

S_S, do you believe "cases are scummy"?

Not really, I just don't think they're that helpful in general.

[Something_Smart]

Oh hey it's heatwoofer.

[Something_Smart]

Not sure yet. I'll check out Taly's ISOs, at least.

[Something_Smart]

The ISO analyses that Taly is doing.

[Something_Smart]

What do you mean "look toward"?

[Something_Smart]

To be fair, I've only ever played with Ame once before, and they were universally townread, and they were scum, sooooo...

[Something_Smart]

Okay I've decided I need to do some reading to get my head more in the game. I'll see if I have time to do that today.

Also, I just realized I was voting. UNVOTE:

[Something_Smart]

fuck this slow ass internet

trying to post the above was ungodly

It's not you, it's the site.

[Something_Smart]

Is mafiascum unbearingly slow right now or am I just slow?

It was super slow earlier this morning but for me it's faster now (a little slower than usual but not that bad).

[Something_Smart]

Give a townread of any degree of confidence OR tell me which of {Eyestott, NDMath, and Blake} should be pushed to L-3 or L-2 right now.

It was half a joke and half serious when I said it but now it's all serious, you are basically locktown.

As for votes I'm very tempted to sheep Blake.

[Something_Smart]

Oh wait, I misread this. I'm locktown?

Yup. This doesn't feel like your scumgame at all.

[Something_Smart]

Do you think my questionnaire towards Blake on her replies (or lack of) to my Fuzzy/NDMath towncases are reasonable?

Link?

[Something_Smart]

Honestly I think it's reasonable.

I'm overgamed not in terms of time but in terms of brainpower, and I haven't been putting enough effort into this game. My apologies.

[Something_Smart]

Taly, I just feel like you wear your heart on your sleeve as town in a way that (I think) isn't really fakeable. Unless you're literally that dude from Lie to Me, I don't think you would have a good enough grasp on psychology to replicate all of that.

[Something_Smart]

I'm still interested in BoP Blake as a strategy for today, ngl.

[Something_Smart]

But I think Taly was talking about D1 and D2.

[Something_Smart]

Why not Churros or I getting BoP'd?

I'm trying very hard to phrase this in a way that doesn't sound like an insult lol. I guess the best way is to just be blunt? In my experience, Blake's reads have been better than yours, and it's not that yours are bad, just that hers are very good

As for Churros I don't know who that is so of course I wouldn't BoP them.

[Something_Smart]

both scum

VOTE: NDMath

[Something_Smart]

NDMath already made the conclusion that there's 2 mafia in 1802, what made you L-1 him when he said it here?

"I'm tempted to try to work with this assumption" is different from taking it as a given without even mentioning it.

[Something_Smart]

Claim... coming an hour or 2

Bro.

[Something_Smart]

I suspect that traitors endgame when all group mafia are eliminated

Yep.

[Something_Smart]

What is this supposed to be pointing out?

There's no reason to delay claiming except if you need to confer with your scumbuddy. (I'd say scumbuddies, but you already slipped there were only two of you.)

[Something_Smart]

Stop tunnelling me please.

I would but it's literally the only thing keeping me remotely engaged here...

Give me a take to discuss.

[Something_Smart]

UNVOTE:

[Something_Smart]

Give me a take to discuss.

Specifically talk to me about Blake and why she's scummy.

[Something_Smart]

Taly is in limbo as always.

What does this mean?

[Something_Smart]

I mean it could be, but for that to be the case NDMath has to be aware of the possibility that 3 mafia could exist and willfully ignore it, something which he could do as either alignment.

Of course I'm not convinced it's a slip, but it's possible, and for it to be a slip he has to have not realized or remember that 3 scum is possible.

[Something_Smart]

I can't make up my mind on him. Although, If nomo threatened to modkill me if I didn't pick a side, I would go with town currently.

What is it about Taly that makes you unable to make up your mind? Do you get conflicting signals from different posts of his? Or can you imagine him saying everything he's said as either alignment?

[Something_Smart]

What distinguishes false bravado and fake emotions from real bravado and real emotions? If you have nothing more than gut, can you at least point to specific phrasing or word choice that feels off to you?

A good heuristic I use in playing mafia is that bravado and emotions are usually real, though them being real does not make them necessarily have come from town.

[Something_Smart]

I mean it also applies to, like, friendliness and banter.

Sure it could be pocketing but it almost always isn't.

I think that covers most of what you quoted in 725?

[Something_Smart]

I don't follow this, you L-1'd NDMath off of a perceived slip, and unvoted because you second-guessed it?

I L-1'd NDMath because I was bored and disengaged and thought he was probably scum. I unvoted because he seemed like he wanted to talk, so I tried to talk to him and wanted to make sure the day didn't end before we could. I still scumread him just as strongly as I did before, but I do want to talk to him now.

Was the purpose of the vote to push a claim? But even then, you didn't outright acknowledge his claim.

Not per se. I was aware it was L-1 but I didn't vote specifically because it was L-1.

[Something_Smart]

So what are you doing while you stall for him to talk?

Playing the game? I mean I don't expect him to take forever to respond...

[Something_Smart]

Something that got my attention in SS posts was his "I'll BoP Blake on this read" while voting ND. Because if NDmath is town, he's setting up Blake as a mislynch in D3

This is a possible motivation for my actions. What makes it more likely than me just being town who respects Blake's reads?

(Also, keep in mind that I didn't end up voting NDMath because Blake said to-- I had my own reasons.)

[Something_Smart]

It seems disingenuous that you've stated that you'll follow Blake's read or at least solve her based on the accuracy of her sort, yet don't follow through with voting NDMath, or push anyone else that has stated numerous opinions about her solve.

But I did vote NDMath...

[Something_Smart]

And any thoughts around the wagons or a readslist?

My readlist is like
you
blake?
everyone
churros
ndmath

I still want to hear from NDMath about why Blake is scummy.

[Something_Smart]

Blake had a lot of other content and you saying you will apparently evaluate your read on her based on if her reads flip scum or not doesn't feel great.

I didn't say that, though I did kind of imply it. I never said that'd be the only thing I would base my read on.

[Something_Smart]

And, I voted NDMath for actual reasons and did not cite Blake in doing so. How is that setting up to turn on her tomorrow?

[Something_Smart]

Sure SS, sure.

I don't follow your point.

[Something_Smart]

I don't follow how can you not understand the point I'm making here?

The point you're making is that you don't think that thinking NDMath slipped can be my real reason for voting him.

But you're wrong, because it was. You haven't really explained why you think that; you just handwaved it by saying it was a one-liner and putting "actual reasons" in quotes.

[Something_Smart]

Mmmm... Then what are you wanting to gain from conversation with NDMath when he's your strongest scumread?

A better read on him if he's town?

[Something_Smart]

you can't consider it a slip for real when you neither already scum read NDmath or knows how many scum there is.

False.

You're saying I need to already have a conclusion in mind for something to count as evidence.

That's not how evidence works. You first see evidence, then form a conclusion based on it.

[Something_Smart]

Considering something a slip is more due when you already either scum read a slot or is already aware of some information. Otherwise it might just be a wrong assumption which ndmath had already talked about.

Of course it might be a wrong assumption, I never said I was 100% sure it was a slip and if I was I wouldn't have unvoted.

It seems like you're projecting how you generally treat slips onto how you expect others to. I treat a slip like any other scummy behavior-- if someone does it, it makes them more likely scum. Regardless of what they were at beforehand. I could be townreading someone and recognize that something they said could have been a slip.

Sure, you can apply Bayes' law here and say that the slip would be more likely true if I already scumread someone, but you can do that in reverse too (and say that my prior scumread was more likely right because of the slip). And besides, you don't seem to be invoking Bayes' law. You seem to be misunderstanding how I think about slips.

[Something_Smart]

Besides, you should probably save your efforts, because I'm not going to be lynched today.

[Something_Smart]

For anyone it could as easily be NDmath assuming he wrong amount of scum. Thinking it must be a slip needs to have an auxiliary reason.

You are not drawing a distinction between thinking something is possible and thinking something is likely.

Of course it's possible that NDMath assumed the wrong amount of scum. (Or that he spuriously assumed the correct amount of scum.)

What I'm focusing on is the likelihood of this versus the likelihood of him being scum and thinking that it was obvious that there were two scum. I don't understand why he would assume there is two scum, and he hasn't made any effort to make it clear, whereas I can see a newish player like him thinking two scum in a 12p is standard if he happens to be on a two-player scumteam.

[Something_Smart]

It makes exactly 0 sense.

Right.

So why would I do it as scum?

[Something_Smart]

Unless you think I like people being on my case for doing weird shit?

[Something_Smart]

None of the stuff that you mentioned there really seems scummy to me.

[Something_Smart]

eyestott-Paragon must contain at least 1 scum. I cannot see this TvT in any potential universe. Fuck all of this if it's TvT.

I see TvT's described this way on a regular basis.

[Something_Smart]

Eyestott should be last.

[Something_Smart]

No. I skim walls the first time I see them.

I'll read it in full, but I doubt that any reasoning is going to make me change my mind on you being possibly wrong there.

[Something_Smart]

Eyestott claimed investigative with information.

I want Eyestott to LIST THE ORDER of who claims, and everybody who doesn't follow this order, is scumclaiming.

Probably fine?

I don't really have strong feelings about the claim order.

[Something_Smart]

Please stop with the handwave dismissal, it feels nothing short of a discredit, and it's disingenuous at worst.

What would you prefer I do?

[Something_Smart]

I pretty much don't understand any of the logic laid out in that post. As a result I don't agree with its conclusions. I don't think you've provided the necessary evidence for your claims, and the burden of proof is on you to provide more. It's not disingenuous for me to not be convinced.

[Something_Smart]

I don't think I can possibly believe either Fuzzy or NDMath had all town on them.

Why not?

[Something_Smart]

Town should NEVER DISCOUNT a person's input like this, mafia is a TEAM GAME as BOTH alignments, and I'm laying my ENTIRE thought process down and it's being dismissed before it's given a PROPER REBUTTAL.

Sorry. Your long posts are laid out in a way that doesn't make them easy to follow. It's not easy for me to see the chain of logic leading to a certain conclusion, because there are a lot of different conclusions about different things all thrown together.

Can you give me a two-sentence summary of why you think eyestott and Paragon can't both be town?

[Something_Smart]

I would like to take things one at a time and break down your argument so I can actually see why you are thinking what you are.

[Something_Smart]

Eyestott, what do you think the claim order should be?

[Something_Smart]

Let's play Popcorn. Start us off, Something_Smart!

I'll pass. Let's see what eyestott says.

[Something_Smart]

Eyestott, you should choose the claim order now.

[Something_Smart]

Eyestott, you should choose the claim order now.

The reason I asked for a massclaim has been fulfilled by Taly claiming. I revoke my request.

Ok but it's LYLO so we need to be massclaiming anyway.

[Something_Smart]

It's always to my advantage to claim as late as possible, so scum have as little information as possible when claiming.

[Something_Smart]

VT.

[Something_Smart]

Let's see how we get on with a

Vote: Churros

Maybe don't vote in LYLO before claims are finished?

[Something_Smart]

Something_Smart, could you elaborate on your Taly read please?

It's pretty hard. But I'll try.

I think the simplest way to say it is this. Most scum players don't like to make things deliberately harder for themselves. This is distinct from WIFOM, because with WIFOM, you do something towny-looking in order to get trusted from it. With making things hard on yourself, you make your job harder without really any upside. Although Taly puts a fantastic amount of effort into the game as either alignment, I haven't seen him do this as scum. But if he's scum here, he put tons of time and energy into trying to reevaluate players to come to a consensus that was mostly right, while being almost completely ignored.

Why does he do that as scum? Most people skip walls. He had to urge us over and over to even read the whole thing, for every wall he posted. And most of them contained conclusions that were right, and it's not like we would be like "wow Taly you're so brilliant and towny", we'd be like "fine I'll move my vote, but why did you make me read this."

[Something_Smart]

Oh goddammit.

Now my reads actually matter.

[Something_Smart]

My current thoughts are that Taly is the only PR claim that can be scum, and he's been my top townread all game.

[Something_Smart]

Obviously, if we find out there are only two scum, that changes things.

[Something_Smart]

Hold the phone. You think Churros is scum?

[Something_Smart]

Everything that's been posted about me today have been misrepresentations.

Including what I said? You think you would be playing this way if you were scum?

[Something_Smart]

I feel like I'm being held hostage, and I hate it.

How do you figure?

[Something_Smart]

Lynch the scums?

[Something_Smart]

I mean if Churros is gonna turn on you he's gonna turn on you. It's not like he's intentionally stringing you along only to lynch you later. He's just trying to get his stronger read out of the way; that sounds like teamwork, not holding hostage.

[Something_Smart]

Only Churros calls me "BP"

I just looked through Churros's ISO and found zero instances of him doing this.

[Something_Smart]

The post you're probably referencing was obviously meant to be posted in a different game and does not refer to you.

[Something_Smart]

At this point for BM to be town there'd need to be only two scum or the setup would just have to be absurdly scumsided.

Might want to wait for Aloratom's input first but I'm not opposed to a hammer.

[Something_Smart]

Eh I guess we could let Aloratom catch up over the night, he's obviously not going to be NK'd.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, something like Churros/eyestott 2-person team is possible. But we'll cross that bridge if we come to it.

[Something_Smart]

Maybe question PR claims after we lynch someone 4+ people agree is probable scum?

I'm not questioning them, I'm saying this lynch is fine because there's no way all 3 PR claims are fake given everyone else has claimed VT.

Something_Smart, do you believe this setup is balanced?

• 1 mafia rolecop
  
• 1 mafia goon
  
• 1 town 1-shot vig
  
• 1 town 2-shot BP
  
• 1 town novice 1-shot gunsmith
  
• 7 VT

That seems pretty townsided to me.

[Something_Smart]

Remind me why anyone was townreading Aloratom again please?

[Something_Smart]

Speak why he shouldn't be townread?

Well one, because I believe all the PR claims and that makes the team just BM/Aloratom/Paragon.

I never really had much of an impression of him, but that post is super sketchy.

[Something_Smart]

Also, is it confirmed we have 3 scum?

No but the town power just seems too great for there not to be.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, of course I'm not going to die unless eyestott is scum.

[Something_Smart]

This setup was uhhhh really townsided.

[Something_Smart]

Yeah, it took me a lot of mental gymnastics to get over eyestott's role being balanced with 2 scum lul

I wouldn't even have gotten over it, to be honest. If I hadn't died I was almost certainly voting eyestott there just because the setup never makes any sense if he's town.

(And lo and behold, it didn't make any sense.)