Micro 932: A Normal Blitz - Game Over

[Luca Blight]

Hello everyone

Generally people just do ~nothing~ while waiting for the game to start. Or at least I do nothing.

Plus there's the thought that second hand meta is not necessarily useful and can even be harmful if it leads to confbiasing. So eh.

Do you think the meta research is AI at all?

[Luca Blight]

This is a blitz game. If you don’t like something then fire away.

[Luca Blight]

Datisi hasn’t struck me as particularly Town yet, which I expect from them early on.

[Luca Blight]

Yes, you were very obviously Town that game from early on. Not sure if it was just that game? I’ll have a look back.

[Luca Blight]

You’ve been active so far but your play has been stilted by comparison.

Your convo about the meta seemed a bit aimless

[Luca Blight]

...that’s the point of the conversation?

I don’t know if I SR them yet

[Luca Blight]

remeber the game before where we were TvT and screamed at each other for 100 pages before you quickhammered me? good times.

Yeah, I think I just don't like your style, which is fine.

Perfectly fine with my vote atm. This conversation seems more than forced and really dumb. I don't get how a conversation that has nothing to do with the game will help you figure out something that has to do with the game when you don't even have a good grasp of Datasi's meta after 3 pages. And Datasi has the most posts in this game by far without me checking.

Content leads to more content. Simple as that, really.

Not sure what Datisi’s post count has to do with anything.

[Luca Blight]

Because you're trying to metaread someone that you clearly cannot metaread very well and you were tetering on trying to call them scum based off of that. You can say that "oooohhh noooooo I was just trying to figure it out!" but talking to someone about their meta is about the

worst

way to figure someone out using their meta. This is something that was clearly shown through your conversation.

How do you know I can’t metaread them well?

And my post was as much about announcing my suspicions as the conversation.

Again, I’m not sure what you’re expecting a few pages in, but you’re not exactly offering a lot yourself.

[Luca Blight]

You’re the one complaining, Hiraki.

I think anything that gets people talking/giving opinions early doors is a positive thing.

[Luca Blight]

hot take: luca blight is town

True, but why do you think so?

[Luca Blight]

but you’re not exactly offering a lot yourself.

This isn't a complaint? What should we characterize it as?

Not in the full context, no.

I think you’re read regarding Datisi was fine - it prompted my comment and further discussion. But when you’re criticizing people for dumb conversations and the like, I’d expect to see something superior from yourself?

[Luca Blight]

But when you’re criticizing people for dumb conversations and the like, I’d expect to see something superior from yourself?

Why?

Otherwise what you’re spouting is just hypocritical nonsense?

[Luca Blight]

Hiraki - i'm getting some scum-cornered vibes.

Who on earth is cornering me? My scumread?

Oops, thanks for that.

Unvote, Vote: Luca

Lol, perspective slip?

When did I become your scumread?

[Luca Blight]

A 9p normal is always 7T v 2S as far as I’m aware?

[Luca Blight]

I agree with Datisi’s points regarding Bugs. Would vote there but I have no idea what the VC is.

[Luca Blight]

I don’t remember voting Shiki.

Anyway VOTE: Bugs

[Luca Blight]

i don't like his bugs read because i don't think bugs' posts are scum-indicative. meanwhile, i think datisi's early activity is scummier.
however, i do support more pressure on bugs to get him to start speaking more sense.

This seems contradictory to me.

Can you give examples of Datisi’s scummy early activity?

[Luca Blight]

I don’t see any ‘intimidation’ in his post tbh

[Luca Blight]

Monkey, why did you want to withhold your read on me, and is there any update on that?

[Luca Blight]

Luca, do you have any follow-up to 145?

Are you asking if I agree with Monkey’s PoV?

[Luca Blight]

@Datisi: ‘Contradictory’ was in reference to Monkey’s stance on Bugs - he doesn’t like your vote as Bugs hasn’t been scummy yet he approves of the pressure on Bugs.

I didn’t particularly ‘like’ Monkey’s Datisi explanation, but I can see where he’s coming from (I’ve already said I didn’t like your opening much either).

As for my read on Monkey, I was beginning to TR him towards the end of his argument with Hiraki, but I’ll need to ISO before I’m confident on that read.

[Luca Blight]

I’m lacking motivation for this right now.

I’ve skimmed through and nothing has changed regarding my Bugs read - nothing they’ve said strikes me as Town at all and it remains my preferred lynch by far. I don’t see any real solving or scumhunting from them.

I agree with Datisi that the Hiraki wagon is bad. Although i disagree with some of his takes, I don’t see any scum motivation behind what he’s doing.

Datisi is probably Town, but i will allow for some paranoia there.

Holden seems fine. I can see his points against Monkey and i somewhat agree with them, i just don’t really feel strongly about Monkey!scum right now. I still need to iso Monkey and I’ll do that soon.

Neither Shiki nor Madoka have made much of an impression on me so far.

My current guess is a Bugs/George scumteam.

[Luca Blight]

yeah i'm just doing this

VOTE: Hiraki

i don't like how you're trying to pre-empt my slight scum impression on you by making it so that it's "scummy" to vote you. That's a level of OMGUS that makes more sense coming from scum.

i don't like typing, and i'd prefer if i'm not hyperactive this game. but i think i have no choice.

your trying to pre-empt a vote from me by saying i'd be scum if i vote you is AI.

i'm now thinking why you had to make me look threatening and intimidating. it could be that your buddies are Datisi or bugspray, and you don't like how they're getting attention.

did i solve it? if i did, please quote this post on end game.

it's either he's diverting attention from a wagon (bugspray), or defending the person i'm trying to start a wagon on (Datisi)

"Sorry if my questions bother you, but you keep saying things that don't make sense."
Even my language? Your questions have answers now. What's on your mind?

I got some townie vibes from these posts.

I don’t agree with his sr on Hiraki, but I can see where he’s coming from feeling that he’s being setup to look scummy if he votes him. His attempt at solving by linking him to Bugs/Datisi also feels townie as I can see why he might think that.

Not a super strong read by any stretch, but I’m much happier lynching Bugs today. Until I see that flip my reads are going to be skewed a bit.

[Luca Blight]

I kind of read it as ‘fuck, why is my partner not helping me out here’ and Bugs positioning themself where they could bus if required.

[Luca Blight]

Trying to catch up but struggling with the site lag atm.

[Luca Blight]

I skimmed through Holden’s Bugs towncase (as I’m running out of time) but I don’t really agree with the points raised:

It seems to be based mainly on the the idea that Bugs would try harder to look good as scum, but I don’t feel as though Bugs is a conventional player and so the generic concepts of what is scummy and not don’t necessarily apply. I realise you don’t care for meta, but all Bugs’ town meta shows them playing in a much more purposeful manner. The singular scum meta that George raised points to Bugs playing a bit more like how they are here.

I think the paranoia part is weak, because it’s really easy to fake on a surface level and the benefit of casting doubt upon George if George is Town is obvious, when from Scum!Bugs PoV there aren’t many alternatives to push.

It’s like on one hand you’re saying Scum!Bugs wouldn’t play so bad, but then saying faking surface level paranoia is beyond them?

[Luca Blight]

George would have zero reason to unvote as scum?

How about to appear Town? Especially if his partner isn’t in significant danger, then he has nothing to lose and everything to gain by unvoting.

[Luca Blight]

I don't think George is capable of that move.

Then I think you’re underestimating him.

Monkey seems townie on p17. No way I’m agreeing to Lynch him over Bugs today

[Luca Blight]

Mod

: any chance of a few hours being added to the deadline due to the lag? I’ll understand if not as it’s a blitz game, but it’s taking 5-10 mins to load a single page at times for me.

[Luca Blight]

Probably Town, Datisi.

[Luca Blight]

I’m only interested in Lynching Bugs today.

Both Monkey and Hiraki have struck me as Town at certain times. Nothing Bugs has done has, and it feels as though they’re playing up to being ‘all over the place’ and using this as a towntell. The fact I’ve seen Bugs as town and know they are much better than this makes it seem as though they’re ‘playing dumb’, for want of a better phrase.

There is no good reason I can see not to lynch Bugs here.

[Luca Blight]

I think Monkey towntold a few times on P17. If I had more time/wasnt phone posting/wasn’t suffering from site lag I’d go into more detail, but his push on Datisi, lack of opportunism on Bugs, wish to 1v1 Hiraki and acceptance of being lynched despite the amount of effort put into his posts seem Town to me.

[Luca Blight]

Right now I’m TR’ing everyone apart from Bugs, George and Madoka.

[Luca Blight]

I know you dislike using meta to formulate reads, but when you’re Tr’ing specific things that you feel are Town indicative of that player, then I think you’d agree that meta can play a part in ruling out that reasoning.

this is just my dumb tinfoil brain before i actually do smart analyis but
VOTE: looker kinda feels lowkey lamist in a bad way and also different from the micro noormal where we mislynched thsi player

From a Bugs scum game, showing a similar surface-level paranoia.

[Luca Blight]

Regardless of context, it shows that Bugs knows to manipulate ‘Town paranoia’ as scum.

I don’t know why you think they wouldn’t do it at more ‘random’ times or why that makes it more likely to be genuine. Whether under pressure or not scum have to manufacture content, and that’s one method of doing it that is easy, safe and appears townie.

It feels like you’re setting a ridiculously low bar in your expectation of Scum!Bugs.

[Luca Blight]

I think it’s just Madoka, but a small chance of it being Holden.

[Luca Blight]

Looking back, Madoka was seemingly suspicious of Bugs (asking why they weren’t playing to town meta) but dropped this line of suspicion when prodded for reads and went for Hiraki/Luca based on faulty reasoning. She tried to set me up by linking me as scum to justify her Hiraki vote, but also linking me with her partner in case she’s unsuccessful in saving them.

Monkey towntold again after the hammer, I’m pretty sure he’s Town. George’s claim seems legit. Shiki gets towncred for the timing of her Bugs vote.

[Luca Blight]

That diagram gave me a deja vu moment. I vaguely recall someone making a messy diagram just like that in a past game, I’m trying to remember where that was from.

[Luca Blight]

Datisi, yes but it would be pretty silly for scum!me to just come out of nowhere and push Hiraki with no progression. Upon his town flip it would just condemn me/bugs as the team. Additionally, Bugs not trying to save themselves indicates that scum were in a bus state, not a salvage state.

My Hiraki/Luca theory came from PoE when going through bug's interactions. I was with you in bugs scum, but based on their interactions I didn't think they could be scum with anyone but Luca. But I made an error in discounting George. (I didn't think they would be as obvious as they were being). The interactions between the other players only left bugs/Luca and Hiraki/Luca and I went with the latter because of how Hiraki engaged Luca at the beginning, seemed partner-like. Again, I'll go through my process later tonight.

This is just a scum post. Saying she thought Bugs was scum but couldn’t be partners with anyone but me is not a townie thought process at all - there was a fair bit of resistance to that wagon and me and Datisi were the only ones pushing it. This thought process only makes sense from the perspective of scum wanting to validate their protection of their buddy, while lining up two ML (George and then me).

I’ve seen enough.

VOTE: Madoka

P.edit: might as well read through this first.

UNVOTE:

[Luca Blight]

It’s interesting how all the Bugs/Luca associations Madoka gave were from things Bugs said.

If I didn’t want a Bugs lynch then Bugs wouldn’t have been lynched, simple as that. I would never needlessly bus my partner D1 when there were two other players close to be lynched.

I’m VT.

[Luca Blight]

How about we no-lynch. George protects Datisi, Madoka investigates me.

[Luca Blight]

Exactly, so you’d know if I were lying.

Most probably I’d be NK.

[Luca Blight]

I had a feeling I knew who Madoka is, and now I know for sure

[Luca Blight]

The TA was a fake claim, he was actually a goon.

[Luca Blight]

I agree that Holden feels like scum atm.

[Luca Blight]

There cannot be a neighborhood of only one alignment - there could be two scum neighbors and one town neighbor, for example, but not just two scum neighbors.

[Luca Blight]

Although I’m contradicted by the mod, apparently. Two scum neighbors with no town neighbors certainly wouldn’t ‘feel’ normal.

[Luca Blight]

Oh yes all Town hoods are a thing, never heard of an all scum one though?

Has that ever happened?

[Luca Blight]

I don’t think you’re scum regardless, I was just curious that an all-scum neighborhood could exist.

[Luca Blight]

luca i need a voice of reason

what do you think about all this

Right now I’m not sure, I need to sleep and wake up with a clear head.

If I had to bet right now I’d go for Holden, but it’s a situation where every player in the game currently seems Town.

Monkey’s scum equity has probably gone up, but I’ll need to review. I’ll consider the strategy tomorrow as well.

[Luca Blight]

Aye

[Luca Blight]

I’ve only skimmed through, but is there any reason not to do the following:

No-lynch, George protects Madoka, Madoka invests Holden, Monkey invests Shiki.

George most likely dies, leaving 5t v 1s. Either there will be a guilty result, which ends the game, or we have a situation where Holden, Shiki and Datisi are all confirmed, meaning scum is in (Luca, Madoka, Monkey). If you’re trusting that I’m Town then the game is already won as we have two lynches to spare.

[Luca Blight]

I’m actually getting the feeling more and more that Monkey is scum, it seems to make the most sense right now.

I’ll iso and see if I can make sense of it.

[Luca Blight]

Actually now looking through his Iso I’m pretty convinced he’s scum. He was opposed to lynching Bugs the entire day, and it explains why he pushed Hiraki so hard when he was the only non-scum lynch that could happen. When Bugs’ lynch looked inevitable Monkey suddenly hammers them out of nowhere for Town credit. His claim is also by far the most sketchy.

VOTE: Monkey

[Luca Blight]

Holden is obvtowning atm, it all could be an act but I find it very hard to believe.

[Luca Blight]

It also perhaps explains why Datisi wasn’t killed - Monkey thought they were still mislynchable, but misjudged the situation.

I find it had to believe anyone else kills Hiraki there.

[Luca Blight]

I’d say no-lynching and letting the Pr’s do their thing beats lynching obvtown for the sake of it.

Anyway, Monkey is scum so it’s irrelevant.

[Luca Blight]

also, you've called him null/town all game but you were willing to hammer 3 hours before deadline? if bugs is town, you're definitely scum.

Posts like this, I thought were probably beyond his scum range. But now it’s pretty clear he’s scum all things considered.

Has anyone even asked him for crumbs?

[Luca Blight]

Monkey’s role seems like it would be very easy to crumb, and very necessary due to the nature of it.

The fact it’s ‘novice’ seems very convenient indeed.

[Luca Blight]

Another point against Monkey is that I think everyone else has agreed to betting the game on me being Town, but Monkey completely ignored the suggestion. Obviously scum are going to be less inclined to accept something that would drastically reduce their chances of winning.

[Luca Blight]

Did you ever crumb your actual role?

[Luca Blight]

Uhh, Monkey, you can't investigate till Night 2. Was it really worth that much keeping bugs around so you could have a result on the on Day *three*?

It makes absolutely zero sense from a town perspective.

[Luca Blight]

just that i can investigate

That’s not good enough.

Your entire role claim seems fabricated for convenience. The ‘novice’ part is clearly made up, as you had apparently been planning to use your power on Bugs N1 based on the quotes above.

Most likely if someone tracked Monkey he would have claimed ungated pt cop with a N1 result on Hiraki.

[Luca Blight]

is it really that convenient? right now, i'm having a hard time and im not even scum. the novice part doesn't really help me in any way. i can just say i investigated one of the VTs who claimed, and got no result.

Which would then confirm that VT as town.

[Luca Blight]

why would anyone believe that you, as Town pt cop, would investigate Datisi when it’s already confirmed that she’s part of a hood?

Anyway, this is pointless as it’s obvious you’re scum.

[Luca Blight]

No? No Result wouldn't confirm the VT as Town?

If a player doesn’t have access to a pt then they are confirmed Town?

[Luca Blight]

Only way it wouldn’t confirm Town is if there’s a traitor, which is next to impossible in a micro.

[Luca Blight]

@Luca

Also people please stop mixing up Positive Result, Negative Result, and No Result.

Hmm ok, I assumed he meant negative.

Still, that would be equally convenient.

[Luca Blight]

Wow I somehow missed that post, give me a sec.

[Luca Blight]

I get what you’re saying, but now we have ‘all’ the information, and with all things considered the only one who makes sense as scum is Monkey.

I’m not going to agree to lynching obvtown over obvscum. I get what you’re saying about minimizing risk, but it’s so clear and obvious what we should actually do here.

[Luca Blight]

And if you’re trusting that I’m Town then it’s a won game regardless, as we still have another two lynches if Monkey somehow isn’t the last scum.

[Luca Blight]

Lynching Monkey -> Shiki/Holden -> Shiki/Holden guarantees the win, regardless of night actions.

I’d much rather get the perfect win and lynch Monkey first.

[Luca Blight]

Are you saying it gives insurance in case I’m actually not Town?

[Luca Blight]

Ok, i can see your plan is sensible. I still feel reluctant because it seems the perfect win is right in front of us.

I’ll wait and see what the others think.

[Luca Blight]

UNVOTE:

[Luca Blight]

Shiki, do you think we should play it safe (Datisi’s strategy) or go for the perfect win?

[Luca Blight]

At this point I’m just gonna go along with whatever Datisi decides.

[Luca Blight]

I agree that checking me is probably wise as I can feel the paranoia in the room growing.

[Luca Blight]

I’m just gonna do what I feel is right. If Datisi wants to overrule me and play the long game then that’s fine as well.

VOTE: Monkey

For me it’s not just about winning, but also about how you win that matters. I agree with ‘optimizing’ in very uncertain situation where you’re feeling clueless, but I’m not feeling that here. If we drag the game out, lynching obvtown in the process before finally lynching Scum!Monkey, it would take the gloss off the win and the joy out of it, for me anyway.

[Luca Blight]

If we lynch Monkey and end up losing the game you can hold me personally responsible.

[Luca Blight]

The more Holden asks to be lynched the more I don’t want to lynch him, and the more I don’t want to lynch him the more he scumreads me lol

[Luca Blight]

The way Holden has reacted to all of this, i’d say there is no chance he’s flipping scum. It’s gone beyond wifom, and I can’t stomach lynching someone I know will flip Town, even if we’ll end up winning anyway.

[Luca Blight]

There’s no way scum!Holden wins regardless, and putting so much energy into theorizing and encouraging his own lynch? As I said, it’s gone beyond wifom and has entered the realm of ‘obvious town’.

[Luca Blight]

I’ve seen scum encourage their own lynch before in similar scenarios, but it never looks like this.

[Luca Blight]

I get your PoV, but maybe you can understand mine as well?

[Luca Blight]

what about the way monkey keeps saying "lynch me"?

Do you really think that’s comparable?

That’s exactly the kind of resigned tone I’d expect from scum in this position.

Holden, on the other hand, is actively encouraging his own lynch as a means to an end, and has extensively theorized the plan ahead. It doesn’t feel like a bluff to me.

[Luca Blight]

Nice work everyone!

Unlucky Monkey, you played well there and I probably underestimated you for most of the game.