Micro 932: A Normal Blitz - Game Over

[HoldenGolden]

A CRUSADE FORMS!

Spoiler:

Deus Vult Comrade!

In our most hellish sanction of viral quarantine of trepidation, we must steel ourselves against the tide of night-lurking mobsters who cling to the shadows like an unforeseen disease. Listen to me brothers, for together we shall purge this influx of HEATHENS by our combined shining light of towniness.

This promise of honor, tradition, and questionable moral reasoning of murder is one I plan to hold accustom to within the deep fabric of my pulsing heart. It is with a strong sense of self-rightness that I, De pope de pope HoldenGolden, thou does point thy finger, of most divine authority and power, at humaneatingmonkey. The morbid delicacies that thou does't feast upon, indicated in the scripture of his username, is indisputely akin to the murdering of sc-HEATHENS!

VOTE: humaneatingmonkey

Applications for my crusade against the darktimes are open! Please have at least 3 years worth of crusading experience and utter holy proficiency with Microsoft excel.

[HoldenGolden]

VOTE: shiki

THE HEATHEN DOST THOU DARE TO SPEAK IN THE PRESENCE OF THE LORD!

Also hello

[HoldenGolden]

what

I mean it is pretty straight forward. Game begins, I start a crusade, the norm.

Shiki gets it

@Datsi your buddy attempt, while appreciated, has been thwarted. What shall you do?

[HoldenGolden]

what

I mean it is pretty straight forward. Game begins, I start a crusade, the norm.

Shiki gets it

@Datsi your buddy attempt, while appreciated, has been thwarted. What shall you do?

[HoldenGolden]

Who's Datsi?

Better than when I was getting your name confused with dasani, the water brand

[HoldenGolden]

Not really. I was hard TRing him in that game (and was correct), but a while ago i got familiar with some of his scumgames, and eh... I'll be having trouble getting a read of Holden i think.

You often do meta research like this?

When was this "awhile ago"? I haven't played in ~6 months.

Please have at least 3 years worth of crusading experience and utter holy proficiency with Microsoft excel.

I've worked at a Starbucks once

Hmm, and their cup sizes are italian which is just Latin spelled wrong. You shall be considered

[HoldenGolden]

When was this "awhile ago"? I haven't played in ~6 months.

I read Newbie 1948 when I was doing meta research for Newbie 1952.

Fair enough. I would be more alarmed if you said a more recent time-frame

For some reason I thought your post was much more scummer then it actually was. Perhaps I should not be playing at 12 in the morning.

@GeorgeBailey, assuming you are around, what do you make about Shiki's approach?

[HoldenGolden]

For some reason I thought your post was much more scummer then it actually was.

Which one? 22? What gave you that impression?

In short, while I agree with the verdict as tonally I find myself hard to read apart of a few weird mannerisms, I found the construction of the post feeling artificial when I first read it.

To me, the "while ago" apart felt crammed in to provide additional justification as to why you weren't sure about it besides me tonally being hard to read. The future prediction of me being hard to read felt forced and still sorta does to allow you to fall on either side of the fence. As if you were also differing judgement until you heard from Shiki's view on it.

Rereading it though and with the way you followed up with questioning Shiki's method rather trying to use it to capitalize a read onto me or even possibly her puts me more at ease over the post.

[HoldenGolden]

Have you researched others in the game (other than Luca)?

yes, i researched the player list, though some more extensively than others.

You and I are going to get along great.

Fair enough. I would be more alarmed if you said a more recent time-frame

This is suspicious to me. Why would he state a more recent time if it doesn't exist?

You are correct that there is no more recent games from me.

However the question was when he acquainted himself with my games. Aka, I was testing to see if it was actually a legit reason from him which I think so since he gave a more precise and believable time

[HoldenGolden]

Have you researched others in the game (other than Luca)?

yes, i researched the player list, though some more extensively than others.

You and I are going to get along great.

Fair enough. I would be more alarmed if you said a more recent time-frame

This is suspicious to me. Why would he state a more recent time if it doesn't exist?

You are correct that there is no more recent games from me.

However the question was when he acquainted himself with my games. Aka, I was testing to see if it was actually a legit reason from him which I think so since he gave a more precise and believable time

I see. But why does the timeframe matter if he had a reason for looking at the game either way? If he said he reviewed the game for research in a more recent game, would you find it suspicious?

It has nothing to do with the reason to meta me. Allow me to expand further

*Put on your big brain hats, takes a deep breath*

As you can see at the top of this page there was a span of 2 minutes between me posing the question and his answer. This is important as here are two examples of the answers I am expecting:

"It was back when you were playing"

vs

"I read 1944 for newbie 1952"

If I am gauging if he was being artificial about his view on me, then one of these clearly sounds more scummy then the other. The former is open ended, vague, and easily bullshitable. The other meanwhile is precise and narrow scoped. Factor in the short time frame in the response to the question and with it being more what I expect if he was being truthful, then I am left with a pretty easy conclusion. Yes, this is assuming that 2 mins is not enough time to make the response to it, but that's the philosophical razor for you

Now a question of my own: What do you make of it now given my rational? Ball is back in your court

[HoldenGolden]

@GeorgeBailey, assuming you are around, what do you make about Shiki's approach?

To go for meta so early? Seems normal to me, I see plenty of people bring meta up to bring the game out of RVS.

A bland but reasonable answer. I assume you have no other comments on the rest of the game so far?

Hello everyone

Generally people just do ~nothing~ while waiting for the game to start. Or at least I do nothing.

Plus there's the thought that second hand meta is not necessarily useful and can even be harmful if it leads to confbiasing. So eh.

Do you think the meta research is AI at all?

Ah, you have armor suited to be a crusader. Perhaps I can paint the cross of townies on you one day.

@GeorgeBailey, assuming you are around, what do you make about Shiki's approach?

i was (not so) patiently waiting for george's response.

he and i played together in a past life:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=82380

why did you ask george, specifically? was it because he was the only one you assumed to be around outside of yourself, datisi and me? or was there more to it?

Nailed it

I prefer social interaction over reading old games.

EDIT: Who is shiki in that game they linked?

[HoldenGolden]

Applications for my crusade against the darktimes are open! Please have at least 3 years worth of crusading experience and utter holy proficiency with Microsoft excel.

I only use SUMIFS, never SUMIF, and INDEXMATCHES. All other formulas are pretty useless.

Vote: GeorgeBailey

Starbucks are liberal bastions.

As long as they can calculate the exponential growth of dead bodies i'll put you on the list of applicants.

While you are correct on your commentary of Starbucks, I praise thy to remember the holy testament of at least its not insta-made microwave coffee *shudders from childhood trauma*

[HoldenGolden]

Spoiler:

Have you researched others in the game (other than Luca)?

yes, i researched the player list, though some more extensively than others.

You and I are going to get along great.

Fair enough. I would be more alarmed if you said a more recent time-frame

This is suspicious to me. Why would he state a more recent time if it doesn't exist?

You are correct that there is no more recent games from me.

However the question was when he acquainted himself with my games. Aka, I was testing to see if it was actually a legit reason from him which I think so since he gave a more precise and believable time

I see. But why does the timeframe matter if he had a reason for looking at the game either way? If he said he reviewed the game for research in a more recent game, would you find it suspicious?

It has nothing to do with the reason to meta me. Allow me to expand further

*Put on your big brain hats, takes a deep breath*

As you can see at the top of this page there was a span of 2 minutes between me posing the question and his answer. This is important as here are two examples of the answers I am expecting:

"It was back when you were playing"

vs

"I read 1944 for newbie 1952"

If I am gauging if he was being artificial about his view on me, then one of these clearly sounds more scummy then the other. The former is open ended, vague, and easily bullshitable. The other meanwhile is precise and narrow scoped. Factor in the short time frame in the response to the question and with it being more what I expect if he was being truthful, then I am left with a pretty easy conclusion. Yes, this is assuming that 2 mins is not enough time to make the response to it, but that's the philosophical razor for you

Now a question of my own: What do you make of it now given my rational? Ball is back in your court

I like your reasoning, but neither of those answers is a more recent time frame. You stated that you would be alarmed if he had given a more recent time frame. What would that have looked like?

Ah I see the confusion now; I would be alarmed in that case for similar reasons. Datisi really has no real reason inbetween 1 month into my hiatus to a month before it ended (remember it was "awhile ago", not two nights ago) to randomly decide "hey remember HoldenGolden? I am going to read up on his meta for no reason!"

Therefore unless it was a very good reason why, I would instantly found anything of the sort scummy asf because it would be bullshit.

What's the point of this conversation? Are you going to SR him or something?

Whats the point of withholding the discussion about your pings on Datisi?

EDIT: are you now thinking its because your style's dont mix well or is there more behind your view on Datisi?

[HoldenGolden]

Eh fair, my brain isn't working so I think Ill finish working on something and call it a night

Madoka, let thee have it known that thy finds it intolerant your choice of changing font colors every post. Think of poor saps who are blind in color.

[HoldenGolden]

Bugs and Holden, are you having difficulty seeing any particular color?

Blue works fine. The green and worse that yellow with the funky highlighting makes it hard for me to read and retain what you said.

Spoiler: Monkeys read post

Shiki - first non-RVS with an 'eh' reason. good questions, but that's not what makes town. towncreds for meta effort though. i'm not sure if scum goes to the game and says "well im gonna research their meta and make fake townreads based on that, so i can be seen as town."

Datisi - his posts in the early game feels like he's trying too hard to appear like he's trying.
bugspray - said something weird, but that's not what makes scum.
Question to both Datisi and bugspray: Why is Luca Blight town?

Luca Blight - withholding my read.

Holden - not answering's Madoka's questions properly, but could just be tired.
Question: You really think Datisi was pocketing you?

Madoka - Good questions, but that's not what makes town.
Hiraki - i'm getting some scum-cornered vibes.

George Bailey - pops in and out, had the opportunity to hunt a bit, diasppointed that he didn't. not getting a lot of "excited to know more about the town" vibes from him.

How many scum do you think we have in this setup? Is there a possibility of third-party factions?

I had to stop my catch up because this post feels incredibly scummy due to the nature of being wishy washy filler. This is a lot of words ultimately to call the majority of the reads neutral or conflicted. Allow me to make the synopsis of this post:
Shiki: weak townread
Datisi: scum lean without committing to saying scum lean
Bugspray: scummy but not scummy
Luca blight: pay dlc to unlock read
Holden: scummy but not scummy
Madoka: towny but not towny
Hiraki: actually seems like a scum lean
George: he doesnt seem like town

So 3 are x reasons he backtracks on, 1 is withhold, 2 are scum leans without him actually committing to the scumlean, and 2 can actually be considered actual reads

This shows the problem I have: it feels he was pressured to make content and thus made a list post to make it seem like he was doing so when in fact the majority of it is filler. The wishywashy nature of it was exactly what I had concerns about with Datisi post earlier about setting up ways to push plays as scum. He leaves 6 reads very open where 4 can be considered soft pushes (Datisi, George, me, and bugs) for mislynches later on if those people gain traction let alone the withholding read and the scum lean on Hiriki given him more options.

In short, I think the crusade strangly worked and I feel strong scum vibes from this post.

And to answer HEM question, no, tis a joke as he is the only player I played with.

[HoldenGolden]

Also to HEM before I forget,

Why did you want to build the Datisi wagon over Hiraki?

[HoldenGolden]

So I ended up just pausing and isoing HEM and now I'm sorta confused.

He has Datisi wagon going but doesnt seem interested in directly pushing her aside from starting the wagon (not asking content driving questions nor and the only interaction I see past that is him defending the wagon and responding to one of Datisi questions which was about RQS).

Yet enters Hiraki and HEM read on him which is a scum lean. HEM seems very much still thinking this is the case yet Hiraki is not included in the wagon discussion where HEM talking about switching to Bugs. Furthermore, it takes an elongated time for HEM to switch to Hiraki. His read on Datisi, by his own admission, is gut read. Yet, he debates with Hiraki about voting him when his read on Hitaki should be more logically stronger (OMGUS, corner scum, etc.)

It all feels very unnatural in the case of a read progression which further supports him being scum. I'm not sure why he engages with Hiraki so much prior to the vote but the only discussion about Datisi is why she is scum rather than interrogating her. It feels more he is worried about the strength of his reads rather than necessarily solving the game (scum wants to validate their reads more since they know its fabricated).

Thoughts by anyone on what I raised so far? I'm on moblie so it's hard to quote the 8 or so posts by HEM that show this.

[HoldenGolden]

i'm trying to imagine that I'm Datisi, and what can I do early game to make it seem like I'm gamesolving

— but really I'm actually just getting early towncred. His early questions doesn't feel like town trying to find scum. was it the winning exciting narrative that I think would yield productive discussion going in Day 1? Yes. do I strongly believe it? No.

I will say I do understand this suppose approach (as I do tend to try to compare AI points in a person's motive to post along with the content), through my previous points still stand.

Im not sure what to make of hiraki. Tonally I can understand both a case for town and scum with a lean onto town believe it or not. Although bad practice, I was tempted to lump him and HEM together for HEM's non-wanting to push Hiraki despite the read until that interaction. I suck at differing TvS vs SvS (as I think HEM is scum for reasons above) interactions but I am finding it hard to think that the two would interact like that in thread in the case of SvS (even assuming they don't have day talk). Therefore I'm finding Hiraki townie (TL) even if it hinges somewhat on that interaction.

If anyone has a rationale for why HEM is town please speak up.

----------------
Madoka I too would like to hear your reads and all that are not neutral unless there is a good reason you are on the fence for somebody. Especially for the three people you listed.

[HoldenGolden]

Ahhh shiiiitttt deus vult mofos, he gets it

Watch your tongue, Deus Vult Motherfucka is both mine and Samuel L Jackson's line.

Although I would like the discussion on HEM to continue, I am interested to hear your opinions on other players not name HEM. Do you have any since your interaction with Luca earlier?

[HoldenGolden]

Luca, do you have any follow-up to 145?

Holden, you fully caught up? opinion on players who are not monkey/hiraki?

Hot Takes: hiraki and holden probably town.

Do note I have a virtual interview in 30 mins (god save me), so I be afk/have to pause reading to get ready.

Yet so far not much to say:
Luca is british. Does that matter? Yes. Means that me and him share a stereotypical love for tea (though I prefer mine heavily sweeten). I'm ok giving a town lean to him at this current moment, IE, I don't feel scum motivation in how he asked questions towards people. I think scum!luca could of been more aggressive with his questioning along with pushing Hiraki more daringly. Once he mounts up something akin to a case against someone I can revisit and judge accordingly.

Yes I did see the meta point raised about him; No, I do not care about meta for players I have not played with and in general.

Everybody else I am null/debating in my head further.

Spoiler: TLDR waiting for more

George/Mao color person/shiki I do not have strong feeling for either way. First 2 from lack of posts having major AI, latter due to waiting on seeing how the transition from pre-game meta analysis to in-game logic/tonal analysis works out. It has started, but not onto a scope for a read.

Bugs gets separated by virtue of the wagon's focus on him, though is similar to George and Mao. They feel rambly during the whole lamist thing and I feel taking stock based off later posts will be better.

Surprisingly I don't have an good read on you, hence why after my interview I'm going to look at your posts a bit more.

[HoldenGolden]

Blah, I think I got the position but we shall see.

@Datisi: ‘Contradictory’ was in reference to Monkey’s stance on Bugs - he doesn’t like your vote as Bugs hasn’t been scummy yet he approves of the pressure on Bugs.

I didn’t particularly ‘like’ Monkey’s Datisi explanation, but I can see where he’s coming from (I’ve already said I didn’t like your opening much either).

As for my read on Monkey,

I was beginning to TR him towards the end of his argument with Hiraki,

but I’ll need to ISO before I’m confident on that read.

What do you make of my arguments then?

@Bugs, Kool about George.

Im not quite sure I follow your points about Shiki? And if George is afk for longer than mods will do their job, or if not enough time is left, we can mount a wagon later in the day.

Do you make anything about Hiraki/HEM?

-----
Time to read Datinisnisnii

[HoldenGolden]

Hmm, yes Datisi can be moved into the town lean pile for now.

Spoiler:

If you get this then you get a cookie and a hug

I also understand the stagnant wagon point, though I have my own commentary on it

[HoldenGolden]

I will also say the wagon(s) are anything but stagnant in terms of the analysis since we are only ~14 hours in and have moved votes quite a bit and the thread is still discussing multiple people.

pedit: Datisi, I can explain the theory behind it if you are done questioning bugs about it (hate to get in the way of good prodding).

[HoldenGolden]

The theory is rooted in VCA mixed with thread review. From my understanding, if there is a clear majority (4 main wagon with 1-2 on sub wagons) or if there is an equal and unmoving spread (3 2 vote wagons for example) the main wagon is thought to be stagnant if it remains like that with little change in the thread's opinion on the wagon(s). People might be posting that Y and Z are scum along with X, but X is still the person they vote for.

Assuming a few factors such as X is not scum, then this is advantageous for scum. They have a mislynch, are spreading the seeds for other lynches afterwards, and they don't have to stick they neck out to save a buddy or secure it. Since the thread is focus on lynching that person, it also tends to take heat off them. Compare this to when one of their members are in the main wagon's against a townie and, upon review either post game or later in the game, the members of the mafia not being vote are sticking their necks out to vote the other wagon thus saving their teammate.

For me, it falls apart because the timeframe is not something easy to notice in the moment while playing and tends to me more noticeable after the phase it occurs in. Furthermore, it is also assuming scum does not just bus their partner and that there are multiple scum alive to actively derail the wagon on their partner. Plus some scum are most likely going to remain on the scum buddy wagon if the defense does not work well. One scum alone really can't shift off the pressure any differently than a town can in this context.

Besides, It also has only been 15~ hours so not nearly enough time to call it stagnate let alone when considering what has been happening in the game.

[HoldenGolden]

Hiraki, If you agree with me about the points I made with HEM, why are you voting still for Luca?

[HoldenGolden]

Holden, do you have a form of color blindness?

The color blind reference is a nod to my brother who has it and would subsequently flip the fuck out.

I do however have a condition(s) [generalized reading disorder + Written dysgraphia which while mostly affecting my own writing, does impact my grammatical understanding of other's writing] that makes it difficult to read the green/yellow with this black background both in reading speed and actually retaining the info. It is fine using those colors if it is just one word, but entire paragraphs blend together and will make it difficult to analyze any long post if you choose those colors. The blue is not perfect, but much more tolerable.

[HoldenGolden]

Why did you choose to draw focus then to Shiki as opposed to other players in the game? I understand not having a read on Mr. starbucks, but you did not really clear the shiki part of it with that post.

[HoldenGolden]

Interesting. I wont post in blue either then.

Hiraki, what does SI and NB mean?

Thanks, I appreciate it.

It indeed gets very interesting when you put those 2 along with the other 2 communication related disorders I have lol. Made public speaking a fun class.

Pedit: Wait I am confuse bug, your wagon only has 3 with 2 2 value wagons and 1 wagon (mine) on HEM?

I did not realize he was using the theory to push he was town because the wagon ON HIM was stagnant 0.O?

PPEDIT (haha PP): Yes it was meant for you Mao

[HoldenGolden]

Dont forget there is a possibility of jester in the set up too

[HoldenGolden]

Hmm tempting to put it L-1, but I really dont trust most of the people off the wagon. Sad.

Shiki why is your RVS vote still up?

I dont like that VC in terms of what has been going on in the thread. Everyone so far expect from Luca sees HEM as scum as well as bugs. Bugs being pushed more. This no pun intended bugs me as I feel more confused at Bugs play rather them being scum or town.

Town!bugs here is a very good mislynch especially if I am wrong about HEM. Their only 2 real grievance AI wise is the werid Stagnate wagon theory that they are trying to use on themselves, which even with the idea that it is

[HoldenGolden]

I posted early. Darn.

That is is 24 hour only days is still farfetch. The focus on George instead of other players also feels werid focus especially if he thought the phase was about to end (trying to policy lynch a lurker)

Actually I am seeing the wagon more on bugs

[HoldenGolden]

Yeah just pretend 253 and 254 didnt happen

[HoldenGolden]

Bugs, I will work with you though

I need reasons. Reads that are not connected directly to your wagon and are more concrete in logic/tonal points. IE not George afking, not shiki posting being like a scum you lost to in a different game.

I'm going to hijack Madokas question and also ask what is your general feel on HEM

@Datisi was having a stream of consciousness that ended up making walking in a circle.

[HoldenGolden]

Prod dodging at the moment; be on once company is gone

Pedit @shiki
Ok about the colors? Dont know how my conditions impacting my ability to read font colors on this site impacts the game but sure.

The crusade post was planned before role pm. The target of it, monkey, was somebody I just pulled out of the player list for a RVS.

And yes, I want more pressure on HEM while also trying to gague your two committment to the read. Additionally we are moving towards more serious gameplay. I've been doing it to other people too by asking others their view on HEM for the long game.

Luca, same question I had eariler. What gave you that intial town read on monkey?

[HoldenGolden]

pushing into overdrive because the activity level of this game is so low. blitz games shouldn't have less content than other games; the same amount of content should be produced in less time. forcing town to make less informed decisions is not town beneficial behaviour.

in some other social deduction games (resistance, jackbox 6 push the button) players are sent on missions to help determine their alignments. i have a lot of time right now (weekend!) so i am currently accepting any and all quests. of course, a vital part of these quests will be to help me determine the alignment of the quest giver, as well as anyone affected by said quest.

So you want to generate AI content by detailing town from playing mafia to play quest that you, I'm guessing, make? All in part because activity is low?

I cant say much because I wrote gay erotica with the player list to incite fame discussion, but I dont see how that helps.

[HoldenGolden]

yeah i'm just doing this

VOTE: Hiraki

i don't like how you're trying to pre-empt my slight scum impression on you by making it so that it's "scummy" to vote you. That's a level of OMGUS that makes more sense coming from scum.

i don't like typing, and i'd prefer if i'm not hyperactive this game. but i think i have no choice.

your trying to pre-empt a vote from me by saying i'd be scum if i vote you is AI.

i'm now thinking why you had to make me look threatening and intimidating. it could be that your buddies are Datisi or bugspray, and you don't like how they're getting attention.

did i solve it? if i did, please quote this post on end game.

it's either he's diverting attention from a wagon (bugspray), or defending the person i'm trying to start a wagon on (Datisi)

"Sorry if my questions bother you, but you keep saying things that don't make sense."
Even my language? Your questions have answers now. What's on your mind?

I got some townie vibes from these posts.

I don’t agree with his sr on Hiraki, but I can see where he’s coming from feeling that he’s being setup to look scummy if he votes him. His attempt at solving by linking him to Bugs/Datisi also feels townie as I can see why he might think that.

Not a super strong read by any stretch, but I’m much happier lynching Bugs today. Until I see that flip my reads are going to be skewed a bit.

Hmm, so the paranoia over being step up by Hiraki makes him seem town.

That's actually a decent point. It still feels unnatural to me to keep bringing focus and hedging on hiraki, but I can somewhat see that making sense if HEM was hyper paranoid (though that still doesn't fully explain why he didnt just vote hiraki sooner in that exchange)

I will have to think this over once HEM provides more posts.

[HoldenGolden]

Ok about the colors? Dont know how my conditions impacting my ability to read font colors on this site impacts the game but sure.

it wasn't your inability to read the font color or your stating as much but rather the prolonged and awkward nature of the interactions between you and madoka about them. it didn't feel very natural to me.

Ok. @shiki Do you think George/bugs interactions are necessarily town!bugs scum!george indicative?

Also, your reads in general?

i think it's much more likely town!bugs scum!george indicative than scum/scum indicative.

town - madoka, datisi, hiraki
null - luca, holden, bugspray

scum - george, monkey

I'm not quite sure I'm following the whole interaction thing. Can you put it together in a post and explain the rational (since you put one of us as town in the same post)?

I'm more interested in seeing the analysis than arguing

[HoldenGolden]

i feel like im missing a few connections and probably arent' respresenting my ideas on relationships in this game peroperly...

going to make a version 2 with arrows and shit after dinner

I thought the diagrams in my chemistry text book were hard to read.

Also there are 9 players and 8 circles?

Ps: best wishes to your family in the Hospital, especially given everything going on

[HoldenGolden]

Bugs is complicated for me to read. They reminds me of a player who I played with ages ago decently (Emps for all you meta hungry savages) IE. Someone who logically was very scummy but from a tonal perspective townie (and this was when he rolled town).

I shall eat some pasta, but I'm going to throw out a hot spicy take that bugs is town. I'll explain a more when I return.

Pedit; speaking of spicy, that's a spicy WoT by the monkey himself.

[HoldenGolden]

Spoiler:

I will preface this by saying the following: This is a Sherlock post. What's a Sherlock post? It is something I just made up to describe a read that is based on assumptions and deductions, much like how the fictional character the name is based on performs, rather than objective truths and facts. There is logic in this post, yet not necessarily in the normal mafia scum/town behavior analysis. You can think of it as a focus on understanding a player through a psychology lenses.

As an extension, I will go further to say I do not think that anything that Bug's has posted is townie from logic based perspective. All of their posts have either left me confused or did not satisfy my curiosity such as when I asked them to provide more credible logic in regards to their reads. Rather, I think he is town based on observations I see from what they are posting.

If it is not your cup of tea, shut up and read it. You signed up to play a digital game with no real world repercussions. Much like watson, you do not have a damn choice.

Observation 1: Meta-breaker; Bugs is relying on guides and wiki to help his play.

Posts that support this:

Spoiler:

because i think my wagon being stagnant means theres scum on it and if nots not george or luca then it would have to be you unless im just real stupid

what the fuck is a stagnant wagon then??
like its been more than 1/3 of the ENTIRE day and my wagon hasn't grown that feels pretty fstagnant to me

i thought i did but apparently i dont

looked like you were referencing the gambler's fallacy

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... our_friend.

Have you ever been in a classroom dozing off when suddenly the teacher calls on you? I have, and the first thing I start doing is spurt out technical terms and nonsense.

In a sense, I can see that coming from bugs. A major cornerstone of their posts have to deal with theories, specific fallacies, and literally citing a guide in response to their views on hiraki. It would be a fair assumption to say that bugs knows this information coming into the game, yet their misapplication of these theories and co at nearly every step of their analysis indicates to me that they are looking at the info for the first time. Hence why none of their posts makes any logical sense at all; much like me trying to explain shit in inorganic chem when I am missing the info from organic. Furthermore, since they are using these guides/wiki information, traditional meta-analysis becomes a game of WIFOM. Are they using these because their scum game is shit? Or are they genuinely trying a new style out? There is simply not a good way to read into it.

Spoiler: side tangent on meta

This is why I have said multiple times I do not care for meta points. Unless there is a clear as day sign of someone being mafia, then it really becomes a WIFOM game imo. Even then, all that player has to do is post more in that situation and boom, he broke his meta. Not to mention the lack of playing during the game with someone drastically changes how you read the meta. What might in retrospect seem a meta defining point is actually incorrect because you don't know all the context of what happen. Of course this starts taking into account how diligent somebody is when it comes to meta analysis, but I doubt the average player reads entire games to get the meta on one or two players.

So what do we have left to think about it? The why. Although it is speculation, I think I have a reason to why this points to them being town rather than scum using these to try and blend in. That reason goes back to how they are applying it in their reads. Despite having the access to such theories, most of Bug's scum reads are not carefully constructed to take advantage of them. Not only are the ones that directly cite the theories are short cut, but that they are also posting insightful read justification such as:

his vibes feel weird to me

This is bleeding into the second observation I will be talking about, yet from a scum!bugs perspective, throwing these kind of reads out when you are trying to find ways to incorporate established theories into your reasons why someone is "scum". Scum imo care much more about maintaining continuity in their reads, basically wanting to show a clear thought process throughout their analysis as typically those who do 180's get called out by town. As such, considering this focus on technical knowledge, I think scum!bugs would not be throwing out such lazy reads conjugation with trying to utilize that tool.

This is really bleeding into number 2, so:

Observation II: Who Cares, not bugs! Bug is posting without care

posts that support this

Spoiler:

Honestly ALOT of Bug's ISO shows this but let me just indulge you

luca stands out as townish to me; his tone feels different to that newbie game where i was masons with clidd and he was scum

its just a brainworm meta read

wrt 86
i just really like saying lamist because i pronounce it funny in my brain every time i type it
lamist lamist lamist lamist

lamist

its fuckin weird how georgebailey isnt posting since a long time ago (weird to say that with 24h days...)
with how my wagon became stagnant it makes me think maybe its scumdriven?? but i dont think ur the scum on my wagon bcs you seem to be actively townsolve and get ai posts happen

like do we just lynch the inactive slot??

good morning i read stuff and now i dont know what to think ahhhh also i have to pee

ok i reread the stuff and its just sort of adding to my confusion i kind of wanna make a 9 circle venn diagram but i dont think that will help me at all
GULP
*opens GIMP*

every time I read more posts I question myself even more not going to read and compared postsvbecae I'm in bath tub right now tryna chill and also on phone

wait what the fuck the deadline is 3 days? i thought it was 24 hours

To keep the college relationship going, when the class basically silent laughs at my answer becuase it is batshit wrong I don't care. Why do I care? Wait class is over? When did that happen?

If you have been keeping up with the thread to this point, then you know that bug's is pretty much scum read by pretty much everybody and has been for quite a bit (well, at least by active players). Yet, I find it important that while the logic in their posts have not improved, they really do not seem concerned or even aware of the thread sentiment. Where those would be struggling to defend themselves by throwing everything against the wall, Bug is currently making a fucking 9 directional Venn Diagram with different color lines. They have posted before hand random shit like "I don't know what to make but I need to piss" to "IDGAF I am in a bubble bath"

This does not scream scum frailing that they are likely to get lynched. This screams townie posting what ever comes to their head. Half the time I think the bug is actually reading a different game because they are so detached from what is going on. It is not even a real attempt at misrepresenting and more a genuine confusion of how the game is functioning and evolving. This harks to actual scum tonal analysis. Bug's is too free with their postings. Yes, scum!bugs could be fine posting whatever, but given their posts and how they are seemingly relying on guides and do not seem experienced, then I am left to assume this is indicative of a town!bugs.

The only real frailing I see was during the whole stagnate wagon on me phase of their ISO, yet this bleeds into my final point.

Observation Triangle: Despite being relaxed to post whatever, they are paranoid

Posts to support:

Spoiler:

The entire stagenet wagon thing. Seriously, just go read it. Plus these

Oh my God those posts are so long I can't read that shit on my phone in bed ugh

But for some tinfoil reason I feel like there's one scum in

{datisi, george}

it was a

tinfoil hat brainworm

post

I do not have a way to keep the college chemistry part going.

Yet it does sound like a oxymoron to say someone is freely posting whatever without a care, yet super paranoid at the same time. None the less, this is exactly what is going on. While I think tinfoil does have some merit for scum, the way it comes across from Bug alongside the stagnant wagon thing feels very townie upon rereading. It lacks a particular direction I would assume they would have due to scum!bug's knowing that it is a lie. Afterall, it is easier to make tinfoil sound tinfoily when you know it has not real truth (at least to me it does). They do not really use it to set up a push on a player, rather, it is the only basis at times for what they are doing. Tinfoil its George -> voting George.

Hell take what they posted while I was writing this as another example:

i cant tell if george is town or doing a good job of pocketing me and it doesnt feel nice

If you are scum!bug here, why the hell do you cast doubt over the person you are trying to push assuming that george is town? Even if he is scum, why draw additional attention to your scum buddy if you are planning to get lynch? Neither help, and this level of paranoidia is what makes me additionally think Bugs is town here. It conveys as genuine skepticism rather than a fabricated lie (not to mention we clearly can see that bugs is not partically planning from observation II).

Observation Addium: On the matter of a George/bug scum team.

I do not remember who, but someone threw this out there so I wanted to talk about it.

No

God no

No.

If they are scum team together they have played like shit (honest truth, especially if they had day talk) and I have played even shitter (double honest truth). Not only can I make another WoT onto why such a team is not valid, but commonsense should too. I am not saying I am a great player (in fact I consider myself quite subpar in the grand scheme of things), but I refuse to live in a world where the scum team has interacted this way with one another.

and yes, i am dismissing it out of disappointment of reality along with me not thinking bugs is scum.

Conclusion and Ramifications:

Bugs is town.

I do not really feel their play-style makes a lick of sense in general, but through trying to understand how they are approaching the game (the guides, care free attitude yet paranoid), I think they are town. Is this the most concrete thing in the world? No. Yet I stand by it. Perhaps it is my gut telling me I am right. Perhaps I am just fucking correct. Like anyone, I will process new info that they post into this, but I want to move away from bugs.

I do not know how this impacts the rest of my reads. I did not get that fair in the writing of this WoT and is my next focus. I do think by consequence that means someone I townlean earlier could be scum. I find it is going to be partially difficult to analyse the push onto Bugs as I can understand why it happened (and was coming/came around to it too) since the posting strength of them is lacking. I am taking a break to play some Sc2 to refresh before I start looking.

[HoldenGolden]

i summon luca to save me from whatever 374 is

If it is not your cup of tea, shut up and read it. You signed up to play a digital game with no real world repercussions. Much like watson, you do not have a damn choice.

Why Luca out of all people. You have eyes and a brain. Read.

[HoldenGolden]

Hikaro the wiki says that town flails more often than scum and that scum is more likely to point it out I'm on phone so I can find the wikie page right now

Pedit: excuse me that is a work of art

P2dit
What do you mean he has your thoughts?

I rest my motherfucking case here

@Datisi that is a boring excuse. Read

[HoldenGolden]

What is TSTBS. That is a new one

also abligatory holden called me he in that post which is p yikes

I tried to make sure each time to use the correct pronouns my bad. I am taking Latin right now which, along with other things, has fucked up my pronoun usage (IE Latin does not have third person pronouns at all and 9/10 times I end up using the masculine 'pronoun' for most sentences)

[HoldenGolden]

also, right now i am seeing the george/bugs team as well, considering george like asked bug a question that bugs doesn't seem to have an intention of answering

Spoiler:

Jk just sleep off the nonsense.

pedit: it is much more then that imo but I digress.

Sc2 time bois

[HoldenGolden]

I hate pickles

I still stand by my bugs post even with criticism raised by Luca as for example with the paranoid point that I agree it is weak on it's own. But combined with the the other points it paints it still in a townie presepctive.

My issue now is damage control. Despite my read on bugs, I do not envision a situation with bugs bleeding town in any case. The only way I see the thread moving on to those more scummy (ex. HEM were I agree with Datisi points on his latest posts) from them is in their death (assuming no invest. PR).

Out of the other two wagons, I refuse to vote Hiraki. HEM is still my preferred lynch, but I will hammer if needed.

I have studying I need to do since this weekend did not go to plan so I'll be here and there for the next couple of hours

[HoldenGolden]

I know you dislike using meta to formulate reads, but when you’re Tr’ing specific things that you feel are Town indicative of that player, then I think you’d agree that meta can play a part in ruling out that reasoning.

this is just my dumb tinfoil brain before i actually do smart analyis but
VOTE: looker kinda feels lowkey lamist in a bad way and also different from the micro noormal where we mislynched thsi player

From a Bugs scum game, showing a similar surface-level paranoia.

So allow me to discuss this example.

This ISO prior to the post is random shit and apperently there was some plank dude pissing people off (plank from Ed edd and eddie I guess)

This post comes in and while I do concede that it does use tinfoil I do see differences in that game versus here. There, all of it is strictly focused to push onto on Looker. He makes this post and then a longer one latter in that game pushing the tinfoil more onto looker.

Comparing that to here, and their paranoia/tinfoil is much more randomly applied. Without even looking I know they have directed it to Datisi/George/and Shiki. It's not more focused at all unlike the game you quoted.

[HoldenGolden]

Holden, I was playing in that game. You're missing the context.

Bugspray replaced in. At the time they replaced in, it was the second half of Day 1, and the town had already collectively agreed to be lynching between bugs's slot and Looker. They didn't exactly have a choice in who to push.

In which case then it's bad to compare it to here.

Bugs being forced to initiate a read for survival upon replacing in is not applicatible to a game where bugs was in during the whole game. It's going to come off as them sounding unnatural regardless if they do 1v1 and thus bugs really only had the tinfoil option that game.

Here, Bugs throughout the whole game has been dropping tinfoil/paranoia posts before a major wagon had formed on them. You can argue that the stagent wagon posts are in viture similar since Bugs thought they only had a few hours to live. Yet that does not explain the randomist in later application of it later by them.

That also shows a bit more why they are town because then it makes sense why they gave up basically after being locked into the 1v1 while here they are still, while not successfully, trying to solve the game.

[HoldenGolden]

And I say that as someone who despite not having a high game count, has replaced into a highly scummy slot and while not having to 1v1 per say, had to find ways to bleed town which drove me to frabicate more shit on players.

Even with the context and shit, theres a major difference between that games usage and this games usage of it.

[HoldenGolden]

Regardless of context, it shows that Bugs knows to manipulate ‘Town paranoia’ as scum.

I don’t know why you think they wouldn’t do it at more ‘random’ times or why that makes it more likely to be genuine.

Whether under pressure or not scum have to manufacture content, and that’s one method of doing it that is easy, safe and appears townie.

It feels like you’re setting a ridiculously low bar in your expectation of Scum!Bugs.

Yet you are also forgetting scum also has to push mislynches.

You can spout all the tinfoil batshit crazy things as scum to look town, yet if that is not paying off either by town pushing the player you foiling for you or your partner trying to help town focus on a mislynch.

Bugs here is not doing that because every two minutes it's a new idea and new person. There is no plan approached that makes it sound fake to me as if theh were trying to set up something.

Also no, it does not necessarily show that bugs knows how to manipulate it as it could easily be that bugs couldn't formulate an actual read on looker there and if they they had to comment, went with the tinfoil option to actually throw something out. That usage is survival, yet you are raising the point that the tinfoil I that game was to seem town when it's simply not. It was forced by the situation of the game.

I dont understand why you cite a game for meta, then turn around and tell me the context of that game is NOT important. Now I'm questioning if you are actually believing in the point or rather pushing onto me for my town case.

[HoldenGolden]

Holden, I was playing in that game. You're missing the context.

Bugspray replaced in. At the time they replaced in, it was the second half of Day 1, and the town had already collectively agreed to be lynching between bugs's slot and Looker. They didn't exactly have a choice in who to push.

In which case then it's bad to compare it to here.

Bugs being forced to initiate a read for survival upon replacing in is not applicatible to a game where bugs was in during the whole game. It's going to come off as them sounding unnatural regardless if they do 1v1 and thus bugs really only had the tinfoil option that game.

Here, Bugs throughout the whole game has been dropping tinfoil/paranoia posts before a major wagon had formed on them. You can argue that the stagent wagon posts are in viture similar since Bugs thought they only had a few hours to live. Yet that does not explain the randomist in later application of it later by them.

That also shows a bit more why they are town because then it makes sense why they gave up basically after being locked into the 1v1 while here they are still, while not successfully, trying to solve the game.

did you like... uhh.... read? their case on Hiraki? tell me that shit is not fabricated to let them survive.

you mean the fact that it's "randomist" makes them town here? the point was that the tinfoil paranoia stuff makes no sense. no matter at how many people it's aimed at.

trying to solve the game. where? they're locked into their hiraki read because of BaD vIbEs from what page 5? they keep repeating about a stagnant/scum motivated wagon while it's obvious that they don't know the application of those words?

pedit: oh hi.

And did you not read the ridcious amounts of other shit that came before it on different players. Hence why in the last paragraph I said that they are not successfully solving the game.

The last paragraph i talked about in my big post.

[HoldenGolden]

Regardless, the meta point brought up does not apply here given that games circumstances, and if it did, still shows more town!bugs then scum! Bugs. If I need to explain that more then you are lost playing 3d chess while I'm playing a fun game like soccer

[HoldenGolden]

you mean trying to push shiki for reasons i genuinley don't even understand or remember, or pushing george because of not posting? how is any of that town?

ok holden. ok.

I've said that I think logicay they are still scum. My towncase isn't built upon that like I clearly stated.

My is removed from those notions and are built differently. I dont see neither a scum motivation for random shallow pushes with little obvious support assuming sxum!bugs teammate is trying to help them

[HoldenGolden]

I've said that I think logicay they are still scum. My towncase isn't built upon that like I clearly stated.

My is removed from those notions and are built differently. I dont see neither a scum motivation for random shallow pushes with little obvious support assuming sxum!bugs teammate is trying to help them

where did you say that?

how tf is a hiraki push a "push with little obvious support"? Ok, do you see town motivation for random shallow pushes? Scum motivation would easily be crating content, because scum has to create it.

The very beginning of the post? Before the observations? Where I say "I dont think traditionally there are any posts that make them town" or something to that affect?

I didn't say it was town motivation directly. I'm saying it is a stupid god damn plan to go around as scum spitting out shitty posts on so many players thus revealing bad analysis throughout since scum also wants to survive. Then to keep throwing in new names once pressure rises on you further makes no sense as scum.

If I have to simpfiy what I view bugs as, it is anti town. Someone who is not showing privilege town behavior despite being town. Hence why I said what I said about damage control and hammering.

[HoldenGolden]

As an extension, I will go further to say I do not think that anything that Bug's has posted is townie from logic based perspective.

All of their posts have either left me confused or did not satisfy my curiosity such as when I asked them to provide more credible logic in regards to their reads.

Rather, I think he is town based on observations I see from what they are posting.

you mean this?

ah ok i think i see what you mean.

ye, i guess we'll have to agree to disagree. it doesn't make "sense" as scum to do that. but if you're assuming that scum is always doing optimal/stellar plays is gonna lose you some town games. i've seen scum win games that they had virtually no chance of winning because scum did things that were blatantly shooting themself in the foot fpr the town to go "why would they do that if they're scum??? must be town." and those were intentional plays. players sometimes make bad moves regardless.

I know, but I think with other points I raised it's more likely to come from town but its w/e. It is agree to disagree. I dont see it ever changing much given bugs posts after my WoT.

In any case, bugs must die before we are/if placed into a mylo or lylo situation due to the ambiguity of the slot much like antitown players in general. Could easily be wrong and they are scum which cool.

Annoying but I dont really see an alternative.
-------
As a side note since you are on the other side of the fence, how did you interrupt Lucas last post there? I still bugs me that he raises the meta point just to dismiss the context of it, but I admit I may be bias in reading it given my views on bugs

[HoldenGolden]

I guess I can use my super secret 100% correct town test, but seems like a waste for d1 and has been debated to break games

[HoldenGolden]

WoT is wall of text

Hmm, I think that's fair. I think trying to answer yours and his posts back to back may have caused that

[HoldenGolden]

if bugs flip scum
Hiraki - town
Datisi - town
Madoka - ?
shiki - ?
GeorgeBailey - ?
Luca Blight - town
HoldenGolden - ?

if bugs flip town
Hiraki - scum
Datisi - scum
Madoka - town
shiki - ?
GeorgeBailey - ?
Luca Blight - ?
HoldenGolden - town

if bugs flip scum, i'm pretty much wrong this entire game.

What is this based on in general?

I see your overall reads here bleeding into it, but is this based on how players have treated bugs, why am I town if bugs is town but Hiraki who shares my thoughts on them is scum?

[HoldenGolden]

i'm town neighbor with datisi but he was acting weird and pockety early on on the hood and then when i started indicating that i probably was trusting him too much we stopped posting

hem and holden PLEASE stop fucking using the wrong pronoun

I'm pretty sure most of the time when I was talking about you it was with the proper pronouns but I apologize.

Neighbors are just weaker masons right?

[HoldenGolden]

I'm guessing from your comment after the claim that PT hasn't really yielded anything.

I guess that puts into perspective the tinfoil stuff on Datisi.

[HoldenGolden]

Why are you hammering yet asking him a question?

[HoldenGolden]

Welp ok, interesting tactic.

Also jealous about the secret chess game. I want a team of all bishops

[HoldenGolden]

Oh you were talking about Bugs, that makes more sense

[HoldenGolden]

So how much does everyone want to bet on bugs AI?

50 swagbucks on green

[HoldenGolden]

That does bring up an interesting idea. How much money could you make with an underground mafia betting ring? Get some people in there with big egos and I'm sure it would make some money.

...not that I would do that of course. I'm a law-abiding citizen.

[HoldenGolden]

have a nice twilight nerds im doing an RPT

I love how ironic your sig is given the fact your playing chess with assumingly Datisi while applying the logical terms

[HoldenGolden]

You mean you havent heard of the fake chess game double mafia neighbor gambit?

For shame

[HoldenGolden]

only the finest of gambits, huh?

It's up there with the nuclear hissyifit gambit

[HoldenGolden]

Welp I was wrong apperently but divine favour seemingly has handed us the victory.

Therefore my crusade worked to perfection

[HoldenGolden]

I think considering we all just saw someone who backpedaled out of a tracking claim they MAY be scum.

I have to ponder this to be dutifully sure.

Beep boop beep.

Calculation: scummy scum scum

[HoldenGolden]

In other more news I did ponder HEM over the night and have reached the conclusion he is townie.

[HoldenGolden]

I mean considering the oopies it's not even really a claim dispute.

[HoldenGolden]

I prefer the mindless zapp wave tactic of sending humans to doom until the robots run out of laser beam ammo.

I propose we yolo it
VOTE: Madoka

[HoldenGolden]

Then give me a reason to unvote

[HoldenGolden]

Because you didnt refute the comment made by Datisi when they claimed you were softing tracker.

If you had done that before or while George was claiming I wouldnt be so gungho about it

[HoldenGolden]

A) it takes 4 to hammer not 3, and with mine I see 2 votes
B) Still waiting for explanation

[HoldenGolden]

Yet you must see it from my eyes
You are confirmed by set up with neighbor
George's PR claim makes sense in that set up
Shiki I feel is cleared by bugs posts (which I can explain)
Hem I feel now town on.

Therefore its between Luca and Madoka and that's before getting into why I think Luca is town

[HoldenGolden]

George being a PR was the best thing that could of happen to this game outside of someone being vig and winning the game.

[HoldenGolden]

While the number of worlds in which Madoka is last scum is great, the number of worlds in which George is fakeclaiming of the answer is a comical third option is still non-zero and I am not losing this game because we decided to act like headless flies and rush it.

The thing is a protective role with what becomes an innocent child if the mafia makes sense.

Tracker would of too if it wasnt for the unvote lol

[HoldenGolden]

Unclaim*

[HoldenGolden]

Oh god oh fucc they saw through my fake chess game double mafia neighbor gambit

It is the best gambit, shiki robbed my moment of reveling you for the scum you are. A shame.

[HoldenGolden]

Hmm, maybe Neap makes sense in this set up.
Weaker Innocent child as we know Datisi cannot be lying due to bugs flip
Then you have BG and neap who imo are both weaker than the parent roles they are based on (Doctor and Cop)

That would mean though mafia has an additional PR as well so the neap false positive pool only be 2 whom we both would know.

Assuming if Madoka is not lieing, the game is easier to solve. Only four suspects are me/HEM/Luca/Shiki

No lynch night George dies 6v1
Assuming no PR check, one of those suspects goes away. Lynch one: 5v1
Night Madoka dies 4v1
Lynch one of the two suspects left 3v1 if wrong
Night kill on datisi
Only one suspect alive in 2v1

That is assuming tho too that mafia does not have role blocker or any way to hide the last role from neap.

UNVOTE: Madoka until after my online classes when I can think better

[HoldenGolden]

Oops forget to include that.

I'm the all powerful vanilla boi townie

[HoldenGolden]

If this is truely the set up, then I'm looking forward to see what the last scum role is.

The neighborhood never has the chance to confirm both if BG and Neap both claim (as there is no way 4 PR roles are balanced for a 9p game).

5v1 3 left day 3
4v1 2 left after night 3 george dies
3v1 1 left neap check

Ok yeah I'm just dumb carry on wayward son

[HoldenGolden]

Wait no I fucked up

4v1 2
Lynch
3v1 1 left
2v1 with 1 left at start of lylo

[HoldenGolden]

A fourth PR role?

Spoiler:

Correct me if I am wrong, but at this point, a PT cop is useless since bugs flipped correct?

[HoldenGolden]

I guess I have to wait for Datisi to explain why they think this is a balanced set up with goon (although that may change now with HEM claim)

PEDIT: Hmm, I ask because on the wiki it says that they have to have access to a PT/outside communications and be able to communicate in it (which by how it was worded there suggests that the PT has to have 2 alive players)

If Datisi is a neighboriser it gets even crazier

[HoldenGolden]

I doubt that though because that means Datisi would not be neighbors with Bugs as the wiki states that neighborizers that start with no neighbors are Normal, not the other way around

[HoldenGolden]

i think we'll definitely win this since we have a bodyguard and we have 2 investigative roles

That's exactly why I have an issue with this set up because we also have innocent Child since the neighbors were one scum one town.

That's one clear in a set up where town gets ridiculously overpowered Day 3 since they have 2 Neap checks, an IC, and A PT Cop check assuming all three lives to day 3 and mafia neighbor dies.

Mafia either has have an additionally way to kill claimed roles which IIRC is called a strongman or some way to dodge the Neap checks (Maybe Godfather but I cannot remember if they show red or green to Neap. I know they are green to cops, so I assume they show up as VT to Neap)

PEDIT:

Haha that is a funny joke Shiki.

Spoiler: Mafia if all these claims are true

[HoldenGolden]

Wait are you actually claiming to be the vig role?

And no I have not ruled them out after the two claims from both have come out.

[HoldenGolden]

That is what I thought.

Neap + 1 weak invest role + 1 weak protective role + 1 weaker IC

And yes I am questioning the set up proposed because either we trust all the roles and the fact that town has two invest roles. One with the false positives of the other PR roles and the other with the neighbors. A VT check, assuming there is no godfather with a variation to avoid neap, is a god send while no PT association also is a strong check too. Maybe I could see it, but not when there is also a BG there too in the mixture.

I think 4 town PR with more chances to clear by invest is a very unlikely set up and more likely one of Madoka/HEM is lieing

[HoldenGolden]

More PRs = weaker neap.

Godfather isn't normal.

I get that, but that is still a very strong set up with you have the BG thrown in too

Well I guess "swingy" is a better term to use

PEDIT:
Do you also suspect Monkey's claim?

[HoldenGolden]

Ah.

Holden, I'm not sure. I think your play is most suspicious. It feels like cornered scum looking for a way out.

But see your game example along with Luca's clarification shows what I am saying.

That system had mafia town neighbors with Neap
This game has that AND Bodyguard and PT cop

That is why I am calling bullshit here. If we believe this, then the set up has 4 of the town as PR roles with ways of checking more while protecting those who claim via the BG and a much more powerful check once Day 3 hits via the novice TA/PT cop. Hence why I was saying godfather since that would weaken the invest strength much more, yet that apparently is not normal.

Datisi is a "weak IC" because we know that they aren't mafia due to the neighborhood with bugs. Once bugs filps, Datisi becomes a IC basically

[HoldenGolden]

I'm under the impression that he also has a PR claim that wraps everything up. Otherwise, this massclaiming is whack.

I think he's trying to figure out what the maf PR is, so we can work around it? That's the impression I got.

I trying to figure out if there is a situation where this set up makes sense for Town (so yes in a sense) and I can believe all the claims, which I do not.

Datisi threw out Goon before HEM's claim, yet I think now if we try to accommodate it the goon is no longer balanced

[HoldenGolden]

if Datisi does not break the game, I'm gonna be very salty
again, no pressure

Which goes back to this

If we can agree all the claims are legit, then the game can be broken. Otherwise, we are auto-losing most likely by putting trust into all the supposed PR roles since we will go to lylo
Example if we lynch and mafia kills each night:
6v1 4 prs
4v1 3 prs
2v1 2 prs

So either in lylo everybody lynches the vanilla person or end up doing now which is debating the validity of the claims (expect they would have night actions. Although scum at this point fakeclaiming an invest role will make up a guilty check one way or the other.)

And I will admit, I am not nearly experienced in set up spec or anything. But the sheer numbers and power of what we supposedly have feels way off. That is why I am trying hard to rationalize what the hell this is by finding the missing link with scum PR.

[HoldenGolden]

so george and datisi are confirmed. if scum!george is good enough to think 'madoka is bluffing i'm not caught here, i will claim bodyguard targeting luca' i am okay with losing to it. scum!luca seems incredibly unlikely. if given the gift of bugspray as scum partner, i don't see how one would decide to vote for them, never consider any other options despite two wagons forming and eventually participate in their lynch. keep it mind that there isn't even a way for luca to set up a game win by being townread for this because it confirms too many people. look around town right now. i'd say luca is almost 100%. this leaves monkey, madoka, and holden. which happens to be exactly the right number of players we need to narrow it down to.

am I alone in thinking Madoka and George is conftown now?

what confirms madoka?

This

George's role makes sense with being a weak protection role out of the three (him/Monkey/Madoka) then having two invest options.

Monkey's claim is the most suspect out of the remaining two since if he does not fakeclaim, then the game is autolose for Scum!Monkey due to letting town break the game with a neap check (I guess unless scum role is roleblocker, then it would allow scum a way out). By claiming Novice, scum!Monkey gets out of confirming one of the townies as VT or confirming one of the PR roles (which would cause him the game come Lylo).

I agree however with george that novice PT cop does sound it would be run in a set up with BG and mafia/town neighbors, hence why I am not autovoting Monkey.

[HoldenGolden]

what if the last scum had a PR that invalidates one of us?

That is why I threw out eariler godfather and now saying Roleblocker maybe.

But with 2 invest roles, Roleblocker still cannot dodge both invest roles at the same time and mafia team has no answer for PT cop once it comes online if it targets Roleblocker (which assuming 5v2, with 6 people to check and assuming both neighbors are alive, PT cop would have a 50% of returning a postive check while 33-66% of that time that check is scum depending on rather town thinks its a town-town neighborhood or a scum-town). I threw out strongman as an idea since scum can be sure to kill a invest role if need be after it claims.

Is mafia busdriver considered normal?

[HoldenGolden]

maybe mislynch the other PR

Yet I am the only one purposing that we suspect the PRs, so non-claiming scum here is relying either on me doing their work (fair enough lazy pants) or town doubting later in the game.

So scum gambles on a 50% chance to kill someone? Also where did you see 50%? On wiki it says normal bg always protects with only a variation being the 50%. I thought george just claimed regular BG?

PEDIT
Datisi is not scum

They are the only 100% town person in this game

[HoldenGolden]

maybe mislynch the other PR

Yet I am the only one purposing that we suspect the PRs, so non-claiming scum here is relying either on me doing their work (fair enough lazy pants) or town doubting later in the game.

So scum gambles on a 50% chance to kill someone? Also where did you see 50%? On wiki it says normal bg always protects with only a variation being the 50%. I thought george just claimed regular BG?

PEDIT
Datisi is not scum

They are the only 100% town person in this game

shiki, as well. and I think that if one of us flips dead tomorrow, it's very easy to mislynch the other.

Skiki is not 100% town. They are most likely town. not 100%

We have Datisi as confirmed town-neighbor via flip.

Yet there will be a confirmed innocent still for scum in both rather all PR's are town or scum is fakeclaiming. Scum from here on out until Mislynch has to confirmed a townie as they can't get by from checking eachother.

Let's see actually

[HoldenGolden]

Datisi is only 100% town because he choo-choo'd the bugs wagon, but if we're thinking bugs could be early-bussed, Datisi's back on the table. Moreso, because he asked for a massclaim and said he wanted to claim last. That's a roleblocker move if i ever saw one.

So you are saying that mafia neighbor was paired with mafia neighbor since bugs is confirmed mafia neighbor via flip?

Really think about this

[HoldenGolden]

We have Datisi as confirmed town-neighbor via flip.

forgot about this

Forget that you mentioned it or forget about the fact our only confirmed town is confirmed?

[HoldenGolden]

so, what i got so far. alive people are {Datisi, Luca, Madoka, George, shiki, Holden, Monkey}

claims:
Datisi - Town Neighbor
Madoka - Town Neapolitan
George - Town Bodyguard
Monkey - Town Novice PT Cop
Luca, shiki, Holden - VTs

confirmed Town:

Datisi - Neighbor with flipped scum also did you read Day 1.

Madoka - if Madoka were fakeclaiming here, the setup would've been a Town Novice PT Cop, Town Bodyguard, Town Neighbour vs scum Neighbor + possibly something that would've told Madoka George isn't Vanilla. Which is Much not balanced.

Not Mech confirmed but very very likely town: George (way he ciaimed) and Luca (did you read Day 1)

ok possible game plan.

Day 2 we lynch Holden. if scum, game over. assume Town.

On Night 2, George protects Madoka. Madoka checks shiki. Monkey checks Luca.

I am currently trying to figure out the way Day 3 happens based on claims and who dies. But every time it just seems like scum gets caught in the end.

Also setup-wise, I really think everyone's claims other thank Monkey's fit as a balanced setup.

Actually a perhaps better plan for Night 2:
- George protects Madoka. Madoka checks shiki. Monkey checks Madoka.

If Monkey claims to be roleblocked and have No Result, we still know Madoka claim is true since the setup would be completely broken if she was a scum blocking role.

However, if we all collectively agree that Madoka's claim is true, then Monke checking Madoka is pointless anyway. ugh.

Night 2:
George protects Madoka, Madoka checks Luca, Monkey checks Shiki.

Scum is forced here to fakeclaim a guity if impersanating a PR, or all are true and we find scum.

6v1 I die -> 5v1 NK -> 4v1 lynched the wrong person in that pool -> 3v1 NK -> solved game

[HoldenGolden]

Can roleblocker bypass BG protection by rbing them?

I would assume scumRoleblocker here would have the ability to carry KP as well as being able to RB

[HoldenGolden]

the problem is that i really don't think shiki is scum you feel me

pedit: well, first the Roleblocker would have to be multitasking, and even if he did, Monkey would still check shiki, and can't wrongfully claim chiki is scum because we would lynch him Day 4.

Mafia only has to wrong claim if they cannot do it (as otherwise they have made everyone town.

Datisi confirmed
Geroge dies
I am died
Madoka + 1 is cleared (we say luca)
Monkey + 1 is cleared (we will say shiki)

Therefore if they don't the pool of Madoka/Monkey gets lynched Day 3/4.

Well ket's see

Assuming PR claims are all true (I shall choose Monkey as the one not NK in both to make it easier. both are interchangable):
Day 3, Monkey checks innocent on shiki, forced to clear since otherwise
Night 3, kills you

Day 4, becomes a 1v1 of Monkey vs Luca Lylo where Luca is scum

Assuming one of the PR's are lying
Day 3, Monkey checks innocent on shiki forced to clear to avoid autoloss
Night 3, kills you

Day 4, becomes a 1v1 of Monkey vs Luca

Therefore:
If they cannot RB and kill, then they autolose
If they can RB and kill, it becomes a 1v1 in lylo

[HoldenGolden]

So Scum if you are roleblocker please ask Micc if you can kill and RB and if you cannot concede because you be dead either way

[HoldenGolden]

@Micc

Is Mafia Neighbor + Mafia Neighbor normal? lmao

Spoiler:

Honestly if that is the case I concede this game on behalf of town

[HoldenGolden]

There cannot be a neighborhood of only one alignment - there could be two scum neighbors and one town neighbor, for example, but not just two scum neighbors.

Not unless they are pulling the famous fake chess game double mafia neighbor gambit of course. Its quite the gambit I heard. Gamebreaking though

[HoldenGolden]

there can be all-town neighborhoods too. and if they realize they're an all-town hood, they fuck you up if you're scum. would not recommend.

anyway for the record i DID have a breaking strategy if Monkey claimed VT but he claimed Novice PT COP so fuck me i gues skjbfkhsiflhewp

It is still gamebreaking if Scum cannot stop a check/BG protection.

We just won't know till it happens.

[HoldenGolden]

Not unless they are pulling the famous fake chess game double mafia neighbor gambit of course. Its quite the gambit I heard. Gamebreaking though

use your super secret 100% town test on monkey please. i am curious as to what it is, pretty sure he is the last mafia, and ready to go next.

Woah woah woah, You mean through your meta dive you didn't see it?

I mean Its not even mylo/lylo. Im not sure I want to risk its 100% success rate on day 2 discussion ngl

We can put it to a vote, and if democracy demands it, I shall consider using my powers.

[HoldenGolden]

You have to realize the pandora's box that will be unleashed once I use it.

Are you ready for the consequences of your actions Shiki? Can you live with yourself knowing you might of just derailed a perfectly wholesome game of virtual forum mafia?

[HoldenGolden]

In in favor for the town test on monkey, say Aye.
All oppose, say Nye

[HoldenGolden]

Woah woah woah, You mean through your meta dive you didn't see it?

this feels specifically designed to make me read again with a larger magnifying glass (much like the discover madoka's secret identity game, which i enjoyed). you did not use it in micro 889, newbie 1944, or newbie 1941 unless i somehow missed it. those are the town games of yours i reviewed.

I used it in my very first game for sure and I want to say I did in 1944 though memory has failed me.

I also used it in the scum game I carried during the lylo to

artificially increase its success rate

strengthen others townread on me

[HoldenGolden]

Does not matter, it shall come down to vote with me and Monkey abstaining.

2 ayes already, George/Luca/Madoka can all reach majoirty

[HoldenGolden]

Spoiler: Democracy votes Aye

Good, Now I can divert responsibility if it doesn't work since it is not properly timed

YOU HAVE BEEN CHOOSEN HUMANEATINGMONKEY!

Spoiler:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jK-NcRmVcw

By Royal Decree of this fair town

, you have found yourself in a one way world of honor and power. Yes indeed, by the end of this, I will know exactly what alignment you are. There is no point of trying to squirm out of it if indeed you fly the red sails, as

fate

Democracy has demanded answers. By not choosing to take part of this test, you will effectively claimed scum and vacate any sense of town cred you had. You will, however, retain to all player's respect by not choosing to take apart of this test if you are scum. As a townie, well you won't be hailed as a champion of the people. Instead, we just end up solving the game quicker, so everyone would be happy.

Prepare yourself now. The road ahead is tough, and quite hard for most. 2 (maybe 3, I lost count ok) have ventured down this road, with both proving themselves town beyond measure....you know because the game ended and they were shown to be town. You get the idea.

Humaneatingmonkey, do you viturally....

Spoiler: the test

by power of your real life pinke, wrapped around thy own virtually by divine eloquence, do doth swear allegiance to town and that you are in fact town aligned?

BUT BEWARE MOST EVIL OF POPULOUS! For if thou monkey bossom does declare yourself town and take thy pinke while secretly being scum, then thou are cursed! Not only did you break the most powerful and only, 100% statistically proven, town test on mafiascum.com, but you also are a little bitch for doing so. Never will those around you ever respect or believe a single word out of your primate mouth, for if thou breaks the most simply yet symbolic of promises, they how shall thou be expected to withhold other promises? Indeed, you would moop in melancholy; you banished below even the 9 platforms of hell itself. You would not be scum, or a heathen, or even akin to Hitler. No, such an evil act is beyond mortal understanding to the point there is not equivalent title of evildoer. You are just a blight of chaos.

I see you are asleep. Good. Good. Think it over long and hard before you decide to wrap your pinke around mine. We all shall be awaiting your answer.

[HoldenGolden]

please say the test isn't the magic eight ball. oh nevermind it's the pinky promise. is it too late to nye? i don't want to damage future applications of this and i no longer think now is the time.

YOU FOOL YOU CANNOT UNDO WHAT YOU THRUST UPON THIS THREAD. THERE IS NO RETURNING BACK.

[HoldenGolden]

But seriously HEM, if you pinkie promise me and your scum bad things will happen m'kay? I'm talking eldritch horror eating your dick off and poofing you out of reality level of bad shit. Hell, I think you get IP banned from time itself if you do it.

So think long and hard.

[HoldenGolden]

I'll happily welcome death today.

My gut tells me one of the PR's are lying, but I think time will very quickly show who is who.

If it is mafia goon, then we auto win assuming George predicts correctly.

[HoldenGolden]

If it is mafia goon, then we auto win assuming George predicts correctly.

How so?

You can only protect 1 person correct? Therefore if they shoot the other Invest role that you didn't protect they die instead of you.

Im pretty sure we auto win there too, but I didn't work that one out yet

[HoldenGolden]

george won't be "predicting"

george will be on Madoka in like 99.9% cases unless a breaking startegy comes to light but i highly doubt it will

Then there is no auto win in that case now that I think of it if they kill monkey (assuming monkey is town)

[HoldenGolden]

Hmm, that actually introduces a problem where if there is a fakeclaim among HEM/Madoka they can just claim they were roll-blocked preventing the 1v1 situations from eariler.
You still wouldn't know for sure if Madoka is town because scum!Madoka can just fake that they were

Spoiler: example

I die 5v1
NK on monkey 4v1 3 suspects (counting Madoka). If claim rb, then no one is cleared.
Lynch misses, 3v1 2 suspects.
NK 2v1 with 1 confirmed town and 2 suspects one of which is a PR claim and the other a VT claim. Check here does not matter.

So no, since you do not know if the rb is true and it can be made up

[HoldenGolden]

AKA, if no one dies tomorrow and no one is RB, town auto wins

Otherwise scum always goes to 1v1 lylo with one confirmed town assuming they don't have any other roles or powers to change that.

[HoldenGolden]

Edit: if no one/George dies tomorrow. Sorry George.

[HoldenGolden]

Well either way, I think I get lynched here regardless because having me anywhere Lylo will always give scum an out read wise.

I would like to stay around for a bit due to the pinkie promise, but do what you must when you are ready.

[HoldenGolden]

Aye I am willing to make that bet

[HoldenGolden]

Datisi when are we going to play a game where you arent a PR?

It makes me sad.

[HoldenGolden]

I like the name Shiki. Has a nice meaning

[HoldenGolden]

I guess I'm technically a 1 shot cop even if Shiki made the check possibly insane.

We shall see if my check on Monkey returns town or scum

[HoldenGolden]

Either way, there will always be a 1v1 with one of the invest/scum vs a vt/scum

Both if you do that plan or if scum kills george tonight and monkey checks Luca will result in an auto win for town.

If madoka is scum, you still will have a 1v1 since it will be madoka word versus whoever she guilty checks. Fakeclaiming scum has to have day 3 come back as town to avoid getting lynched day 4

[HoldenGolden]

I'm honestly doubting that Holden should be lynched today.

I should always be lynched here because town can afford it and it prevents scum from having a way out later

[HoldenGolden]

Aka I think shiki is town therefore if one of us is supposely to die, I choose me.

It's the most pro town move I can do aside from my test on monkey

Pedit may I at least see if Monkey chooses my pinkie?

[HoldenGolden]

No yolo lynch. Game is mechanically solved to the point where whoever is really scum here is screwed

[HoldenGolden]

Also we did not spend 5+ discussing lynching me to yolo lynch goddammit.

If you wanted to do that, I gave you the chance with Madoka and you said nooooo. No need to rush yolo vote

I was a visionary

[HoldenGolden]

Final Death read: Monkey was scum all this time and used the novice to not seem suspect when claiming (as saying he checked hiraki would always raise red flags regardless of his read on him)

[HoldenGolden]

Well then if that's the case I should be lynched today as time will clearly force Monkey out as scum.

Just um monkey, concede and dont pinkie promise ok?

[HoldenGolden]

Like if you ruin the most powerful town tell in this game and then concede afterward I will legit hunt you down and eat your monkeys in revenge

[HoldenGolden]

Monkey is therefore now confirmed town essentially.

We shall see post game if the world ends

[HoldenGolden]

VOTE: HoldenGolden

I'm ready to accept death

[HoldenGolden]

Can we do shiki instead?

It really doesn't matter honestly other than for most I have the highest scum equity which I understand.

I die

Assuming we get both checks next day phase game is solved.

[HoldenGolden]

Hem would you vote me or madoka in Lylo assuming you were the third person and for some reason you didnt check me?

That's the situation we were in if one of the PR roles are fake claiming. Unless I am cleared by invest, I will be a giant question mark for the rest of town. If scum can in that position bring me to lylo to fake a red check on me they will.

Lucas/Shiki/Madoka objectively have strong reasons to be thought of as town in the case any are forced to go 1v1. You did the pinkie promise so strength be in the pinkie.

[HoldenGolden]

I never thought lobbying for my own death would be the objectively right thing to do but hey, it's the whole being dead thing

[HoldenGolden]

then i just investigate you, i don't see the problem.
i think game ends if we lynch shiki today.

The game also just ends if you check her tonight as well as it is an auto win for town if anybody gets/claims a red check

I think though the fact scum hasn't conceded is either they A) think they can win a 1v1 and slash or dodge invest or B) have a way to bypass our win condition with a role.

[HoldenGolden]

Hard to say that since the george/madoka antics shut down much of that play and shifted it to mechanical playing meaning if that were the case scum never got the chance to do it.

I honestly could see Hiraki getting killed because of how aggressive and focused he was in terms of how he went after suspects.

[HoldenGolden]

That's arguably more about the claim and your thought process over Datisi. Some of it is factoring in nk too, but you live or die by that claim now. And the pinkie promise.

If you are really an invest role you should be dead by lylo if madoka is lying or 50/50 1v1ing. Which you are, because pinkie promise

[HoldenGolden]

Regardless of who gets lynched today, Day 3 will be the most important day of the game no matter what. That's why I could honestly care less about getting lynched as it is more PR vs VT then necessarily scum vs town

[HoldenGolden]

Lynch me/shiki/Luca (non PR) today: 5v1

If george is NK: 4v1-
Madoka:
Madoka reports check, clears one suspect
Madoka reports check, finds red on a player-> auto win
Madoka reports no check (rb), monkey is most likely confirmed via set up spec.


Monkey:
Monkey reports check, clears one suspect
Monkey reports check, finds PT access -> autowin
Monkey reports rb, madoka is most likely confirmed via set up.

Now the reason why we lynch here is that if one of the invest roles dies, the following setup is here:

2 confirmed townies: Datisi and George
1 claim PR role: Madoka/Monkey.
2 suspects: 2 of me/shiki/Luca.

Multitasking rb does not matter as they have to burn the rn on george to kill one of the invest roles. The remaining invest should have a check on one of those two people. Meaning that we auto win

[HoldenGolden]

We basically should win unless scum has some why to throw off town, or town has some false positives in the pool secretly like Miller's (but since from what I read Miller's must know they are millers in a normal set up, I doubt that is the case.)

[HoldenGolden]

there is literally zero possible way in a Normal game that any scum would appear innocent to a PT cop (unless traitor, but there cannot be a traitor in a 9p) or to a Neapolitan

I was talking about town having false positives like a Miller. Not scum having ways to hide alignment

[HoldenGolden]

I'm sad too that my fake breadcrumbing wasnt picked up by mafia honestly. Quite sad.

Oh that is a fair point actually. Town neighbor is basically a miller.

[HoldenGolden]

Sadly I'm under a eldritch blood pinkie pact that prevents me from explictly agreeing with scum!monkey reads.

Whoever we lynch here doesn't matter. I push me simply because I already forsee a similar situation to newbie 1944 (into the jungle something one) where I as town was kept alive until the end due in part of the threads scum read on me despite multiple townies changing their minds.

We do not progress any further until we see what happens doing the actions of night 2 and flips/results day 3

[HoldenGolden]

We go with what we been discussing. It's not much of a swag victory tbh, and the only way scum gets a major out is if we lynch monkey and he flips town.

Madoka will check Shiki, Monkey will check Luca, I get lynched. No need to trust anyone besides george (who would be dead) and Datisi who is clear by set up pretty much. Aka, out of the four remaining players, two should be cleared either automatically or through reasonable deduction

[HoldenGolden]

I will fight every other course of action as it is no where as good as the current plan which should most of the time lead to an auto win

[HoldenGolden]

In theory yes, in practice it gives scum an easier ML if they have some way to divert the invest checks.

Shiki summed it up best that my slot has a lot or WIFOM around it (asking to be lynched, the town case on bugs, etc). If the rest of yall wants to switch out me with somebody fine I guess, but I think by removing me it forces scum in that situation to reach more in scum reading the other person.

I guess if madoka or monkey is scum, they always can fake claim a red check as the cornerstone of their case though lylo

[HoldenGolden]

Yes, we keep debating the same plan but in slightly more elaborate "phases" to avoid copyright infringement

Honestly this gif sums up the day for me as I keep talking so I dont die before everyone knows the plan

Spoiler:

Pedit:
In that case, monkey cannot claim no result as Madoka can only die if george is rbed

[HoldenGolden]

Bg protection is only bypass if the rb is used against them. So monkey claiming no result in the case Madoka dies is a scum claim if I understand it right.

Though they can kill Monkey and Madoka can claim no result I guess

[HoldenGolden]

Worse case situation: Monkey is cop and is killed. Madoka reports no check.

Suspect pool: Luca/Shiki/Madoka as I still think Georges play is enough to consider his claim real and plus BG makes more sense then having two invest roles.

That is still a 1v1 battle come lylo. The one difference is that Madoka will not/can not have a check come lylo to rely on.

[HoldenGolden]

No, because 9p games also count as Mini Normals, and Micro Normals are played in both Micro and Normal queue so good luck finding them

also i'll draft a Mech Post that will be valid if i eat the NK

gimme a bit

pedit: Madoka is confirmed setup-wise because otherwise town is too weak

Eh I think your over valuing the rb in this set up. Rb is much weaker if there is indeed two invest roles.

Additionally,

we have no way to know that Madoka isnt scum who faked claim and then faked about being rb and is actually like a goon

.

So no, Madoka cannot be assume to be neap if rb unless Monkey is alive. Even then, it's not a choice for scum as one invest pair will go off as they kill George or you.

[HoldenGolden]

NO

[HoldenGolden]

WE ARE NOT DOING THE FUCKING YOLO LYNCH

If you want to lynch, lynch me.

We are entitled to do the plan we spent 20 pages fucking discussing

[HoldenGolden]

THERE IS NO REASON TO THROW AWAY A SITUATION WE WHERE AUTO WIN 90% OF THE TIME AND HAVE A 50/50,% CHANCE PURE RANDOM CHOICE IN LYLO IF WE DONT AUTO WIN

[HoldenGolden]

Additionally,

we have no way to know that Madoka isnt scum who faked claim and then faked about being rb and is actually like a goon

. So no, Madoka cannot be assume to be neap if rb unless Monkey is alive. Even then, it's not a choice for scum as one invest pair will go off as they kill George or you.

we do

novicePTcop/bg/neigh/4vt vs neigh/goon is still broken

And it will always seem broken until we advance the game to day 3 and learn wtf is going on with the set up

[HoldenGolden]

The only way we lose is if Madoka is scum and kills monkey unless I have missed something

Pedit

No, this is what happens when everyone mass claims

[HoldenGolden]

Day 2 would of been fun if it wasnt for 3 PR claims

[HoldenGolden]

3,

I'm not counting yours as you are flip confirmed pretty much after day 1

Honestly monkeys idea that you can be scum and town has then two useless invest roles and a bg would be the most funny set up I've seen

[HoldenGolden]

You better buckle in btw. You have a good chance of going to lylo if scum kills George and then the other/one of the invest roles which is the correct play for them barring rbs and shit

[HoldenGolden]

wait i'm circling back to the previous idea. we've all agreed on Luca town? is there a point in having monkey check him as opposed to doubling up on shiki?

Yes, it 100% clears either madoka and monkey beyond set up spec.

[Madoka | Shiki]
[Monkey | Luca]

If both live, then game is won.
If one dies:
Successful check (auto win): one of Luca/shiki and one of monkey/Madoka are the only suspects as luca/shiki is either clear or red check.
No check: all three are suspects. 50/50 chance of winning by just random lynching in lylo. Technically scum needs to pass both a 33% and 50% chance of getting lynched because of day 3 lynch. However, one of george/datisi will be alive with one of the PR invest claims and a no claim.

If you say Luca is auto town then there is no chance for scum to win if he is indeed town. Yet, I'm not as sure given his repeated questioning of if to yolo/no lynch.

[HoldenGolden]

If luca is scum, he will have no chance tomorrow. So I think the call should be delay till the actions of tomorrow comes around.

[HoldenGolden]

I'm assuming that all four of them has a chance to be scum since I cannot figure out what the fuck balances this set up and stop caring as everything that I know of outside of a multitask RB cannot stop this plan.

[HoldenGolden]

ehhh, i think your math is off? how is the game won anyway if both invests survive?

also you know what is a nice balanced setup?

nea/bg/neigh/4vt vs neigh/goon

that's a might good and balanced setup

but OpTiMaL StRaTegY and gAmE ThEoRy

fml

If both survive one has a check no matter what. That clears a person. Assuming the other is not rb, then whoever is scum will be rveeled and forced into a 1v1 situation where town has two lynches.

If one claims rb, then only Monkey can claim rb. In order to kill Madokatown! Here scum has to bypass George with the rb. We enter 1v1 land.

If one claims rb and the other invest is still alive, I guess you are still in the same situation as if one dies with a no check. Leads to a 1v1 either between the two invest roles or one invest and a VT claim.

If that is the game's set up Datisi then we win automatically day 3 assuming goon didnt fake claim, hence why I'm saying advance the game to day 3 lol.

[HoldenGolden]

Your the one who introduced the idea of mechiacally solving the game, I'm simply the one that jump on board of the idea.

The fun thing is, whenever you/someone is tired of hearing me talk you can lynch me!

[HoldenGolden]

At this point I’m just gonna go along with whatever Datisi decides.

Me and him are basically saying the same thing besides semantics of rather we think the game is balanced in X set up.

Vote for me Luca. Do not do what Madoka is doing. We play this slow and restrict scum's plays drastically, not providing them outs.

[HoldenGolden]

If you are town, scum!Monkey has no way of winning this game come day 3 even if he is RB.

Meanwhile if you are wrong and Monkey is town, we have 3 VT (me/shiki/Luca) and you with only one way to clear. If mafia has any ways through protection or can RB, we walk into day 3 with four question marks as oppose to 3 at most. Now if everyone believes your claim, fine, then we should have an autowin. But the other method gets us more info without having to chalk up anybody as confirmed town besides George and Datisi. Objectively, that is the best play.

[HoldenGolden]

Aka, everybody is betting on Monkey flipping scum when there is no need to bet at all as we will know come day 3. So simple, dont bet

[HoldenGolden]

Wait no I miscounted, it still will be a 1v1 if scum!monkey can rb.

But still the point stands that lynching him now is more risky then seeing the results of day 3 and benefits scum if we are wrong

[HoldenGolden]

I've made the mistake of letting scum live before, I'm not doing it again.

But your not letting him off the hook! You are stalling for potentially game ending information!

Tell me why it is better to increase the suspect pool from 3 to 4 and to throw away a chance at an auto win? Because you think he is certainly scum 100%?

Guess what, I thought bugs was town and I lost that bet. Boom, flipped scum. And I had to sallow that pride and move on. Here is the same thing. HEM is most likely the last scum, but he can only win if he is through a very specific set up. So sallow the pride of not potentially ending the game day 2 instead of swallowing the pride of losing the game if we are all wrong.

[HoldenGolden]

Philosophy says we most of us are unconfirmed scum.

But I am can't argue and write a study guide so Luca/Shiki/HEM/Datisi halp

[HoldenGolden]

Datisi, how do you feel about HEM lynch?

[HoldenGolden]

Honestly I can see scum in madoka/HEM/luca. Shiki actions today feels the most of what I expect town to do.

[HoldenGolden]

From my perspective the jedi are evil.

Datisi you put as much thought into the plan as I have. If you want to go for the lynch i'll respect it.

@Luca
You have to understand from my PoV.

Scum is not pushing my wagon despite me asking for votes. This leads to me now thinking that scum most likely cannot have an out here with the proposed play hence they are not joining me in the lynch.

Take a look at what you/HEM/ and Madoka are doing. You doing the play that scum would do to live if they cannot live at all (luca), or because of 1v1ing at the end (madoka/HEM)

[HoldenGolden]

I get your PoV, but maybe you can understand mine as well?

I understand why town!you would feel like this. Just I personally wouldn't go for the risk.

But Datisi has gone for it so lets see how it turns out!

PEDIT:
...or not lol

[HoldenGolden]

He remembers the power of the pinkie

vote me Datisi thats right, you cannot resist my charming lynch

[HoldenGolden]

Spoiler:

Spoiler:

[HoldenGolden]

Woah dude, that's finger rape.

Not cool

[HoldenGolden]

Spoiler: Somebody make a move

[HoldenGolden]

Wasn't that the architect?

[HoldenGolden]

i pinkie promise im town and you guys can lynch me. if you're gonna be like this, i dont want to be in lylo.

[HoldenGolden]

Hot take: I played like shit.

Thanks Micc for hosting!

@HEM
So shall I break your knee caps or your elbows first?