Mini Normal 2135 (Endgame)

[Riabi]

VOTE: saladman
Salad is food for my food.

[Riabi]

Here are some of my thoughts on where we are

... That being said... and this may be a ludicrous idea, but it's in my head and I'd rather post it for others to chime in on. What if we don't have ANY millers? What if it's a double bluff from scum? We lynch one of them, the other coasts to victory under a "confirmed town" heading.

Of all the possibilities being thrown around, this one is the worst. I think a double bluff would be idiotic. The best move for town is to lynch/vig/otherwise kill BOTH of them. Any town that would let a claimed miller get through to the end of the game like that deserves to lose, in my mind.

166
I agree with farside here. Una does appear to be double-speaking here. Is it scummy? Hard to say, but, it's worth noting, I think.

As of now, my read for scumteam is una, george and drew. I'm sus of drew for obv reasons. I'm sus of george because of his spectacularly shitty defense for drew. Una is sus for defending george by pushing tanner. I think either Una or Drew were the bus target because of the quotes in 166.
Does anyone have the vote count on drew?

This post is just awful. It reeks of low effort. Null-read on salad right now, but, man, if you're going to post so infrequently, maybe put a BIT more effort into the posts when you do?

All that said, I accept the possibility that there are two millers, but, it doesn't seem very likely to me. I think it's way more likely that one of them (Drew, probably) is lying. Either way, like I said above, I think they both need to die, and as quickly as possible. Note though, that when I say "as quickly as possible" I mean in terms of game days, not necessarily meaning I think we should quick-lynch. I generally don't like quick-lynches without a damn good reason, and I think that there's value in discussion.

In that vein, I'm willing to vote Drew now, but, I don't want to put him too close to being lynched just yet, so I'm going to hold off on my actual vote until we get a vote count. If he's above L-2, I'll vote for him in a heartbeat.

@Mod, could we get a vote count please?

[Riabi]

All that said, I accept the possibility that there are two millers, but, it doesn't seem very likely to me. I think it's way more likely that one of them (Drew, probably) is lying.

I can’t wait to flip town. The egg on peoples faces...

I don’t proclaim to be a brilliant player, but gosh, the completely retarded reasoning of ‘it’s totally unlikely, therefore impossible and Drew is lying’ reasoning is some of the worst I’ve ever seen.

I feel like I should point out that the argument you claim I'm making is literally not the one I'm making. I never said "it's unlikely, therefore impossible" I said, it's unlikely, and so you lying is more likely. I know you have to defend yourself but, mischaracterizing other's arguments is maybe not the most effective way to do that...

[Riabi]

You didn’t make that clear in your original post. Maybe be clearer, and then I won’t confuse your intentions.
What you’ve done (a form of gaslighting) is very effective at making a person look guilty, because you’re changing the past on them.
I’m not a fan of that behaviour and it stinks.

I'm sorry you feel like I'm gaslighting you, I'm not though....
What I said was

I accept the possibility that there are two millers, but, it doesn't seem very likely to me. I think it's way more likely that one of them (Drew, probably) is lying.

Where do you get from that that I said anything was impossible? I don't see how this could be interpreted any other way....

[Riabi]

The part I object to in your characterization of my argument is:

‘it’s totally unlikely, therefore impossible

I've never said it was impossible, and to interpret anything I've said as that is disingenuous at best, malicious at worst.

Then you go and add this:

* You have a set view of the game set up, that you aren't willing to expand your mind to accept a different reality

This is a terrible premise, and completely false. It's not a question of willingness at all. It's just that I find the likelyhood of there actually being two millers in the same game to be fleetingly small. I've considered your argument that you and mavs are both telling the truth, and, while I admit it is possible, I just find it far more likely that one of you is lying. From there, I consider which of the two of you is more likely to be lying, and I think that's you.

You are basically saying, I accept the two points as true, because the alternative doesn't make sense to me. And what I've said is such, but you've said something different.

Once again, this is false. Your argument does make sense to me, I just don't find it compelling. There's a big difference.

Why don't you stop trying to summarize what I'm saying and let me speak for myself?

[Riabi]

@Mod Thank you.

VOTE: Drew

[Riabi]

It’s not a terrible premise. It’s a reality I’m trying to get you to conceive of because it IS what is happening.

Your premise is terrible because you say it's about my willingness to consider your argument. I DID consider it, and I don't agree.

You consider the likelihood of two millers as not applying to this situation. Therefore, it’s impossible for you to conceive of it being in play, and dealing with that scenario. I’m not misrepresenting or summarising your argument. I’m following it through to it’s conclusion.

This is not how probabilities and likelyhoods work, and what's worse, is I think you know that, but I can't prove that part.

I'm bored of this argument, and won't be engaging it any more after this post, you are consistently, (and I believe flagrantly), misrepresenting me, and it's a pretty useless argument at this point.

Tell me. What posts make you think I’m lying and why?

There aren't any specific posts, again it's a probabilities game. If I'm going with the assumption that one of you is lying, which one of you is most likely? Well, counter-claiming a miller if you're not one would a really ballsy play, and, I think the first claim is more likely false.

[Riabi]

What if there are two millers?

Then I'm wrong?

When I show up as town, what will be your first response in the game eg what will you look to do?

There are too many factors at play for me to answer this question. Things like who else dies at night will weigh heavily on how I proceed in D2.

[Riabi]

*puts on crazy/wifom hat*

This was really all you needed to say. The rest of your argument is WIFOMy enough to be entirely pointless.

[Riabi]

Yeah, it's a bit of a weirdly worded post, in my mind, but, I don't think it's a scum slip.

[Riabi]

Persi, I agree the Miller claims have to be resolved (and plan on voting Drew today), but do you think there's benefit to rushing it? Since we still have two practically contentless slots?

I know this wasn't directed at me, but, I want to comment on this idea. I'm normally all for discussion and getting as much info as possible out there. But, at this point, the thread seems to have devolved into the ravings of a lunatic madman, to the point where I don't even read Drew's posts anymore. I just don't care what he has to say. Are you finding any value in his posts at this point?

[Riabi]

No, I'm not. I'll obviously go back and reread if he's green. I'm more thinking about Luca and Salad's slots. Though I am kinda debating with myself if there is a point in waiting for them. Not sure still.

That's fair. Though, I'll point out that we only have like 4 days at this point. I think Luca will be back tomorrow, so no problems waiting for him. But, no clue when we'll hear from Salad's slot, so, don't wait too long for that.

[Riabi]

Like, why do they both need to die if you only think one of them is lying? I think he didn't even consider the possibility of double miller. And scum wanted to push the Drew lynch as hard as possible.

VOTE: Riabi

For the same reason that the miller needs to die if only one person claims miller? Because it's too easy/convenient of a claim otherwise. Now, that was with the information we had on D1; Persivul's claim does seem to confirm mavs, since scum miller isn't a normal role, and I can't think of a reason that a scum!persivul would lie about mavs' claim.

Mavs and persivul are either super confirmed PR, or literally the scumteam.

What I don't understand though is why that claim confirms Persivul? If he is a scum role-cop, mavs seems like a pretty easy/convenient target to gain town cred.

I also don't understand why so many people in this game seem to equate "considered and rejected" with "didn't consider". I did consider the possibility of double miller, and I didn't find the arguments for it compelling, so I acted on the information I had at the time that I found most compelling. Turns out I was wrong, ok, most people are wrong most of the time, but that doesn't mean I didn't even consider the thought.

Now, in light of the new info that I was apparently wrong about the set up of the game. I need to go back and reread D1.

[Riabi]

Question to everyone... do we know if the scum have day talk?

Its not said but I would say they do. At least for now they do.

What do you base this on? Like, after it's established that the mod never said one way or another, you're either speculating based on nothing, or you have info that makes you suspicious....

I think a scumflip in either Panda/Luca would be ++town for both George and Una.

Can you walk me through this logic? I'm not following it.

Persivul could be a scum going for the towncred when mavs flips.

Town having two Millers with no ways to confirm either one of them (i.e. - without something like a Rolecop) cannot be Normal as it basically gives scum 2 free mislynches.

This still doesn't 100% clear Persivul. There could be a scum role cop and a town one, or some other kind of PR that can confirm them.
Look, I'm not saying that Persivul IS scum, but, let's not all talk like he's confirmed either.

[Riabi]

What do your reads look like right now? Or just thoughts on the game?

Honestly, I'm very confused by this game right now. I haven't had time since D2 started to go back and read the whole thing, but, I need to do that. I was pretty certain that one of Drew or mavs was lying and now that Drew is dead and mavs is basically confirmed, I need to start from scratch.

My biggest scum read at the moment though is probably Prana. His insistence that Pers and mavs MUST be aligned is weird. Like, yeah, I understand that they probably are aligned (and probably town), but, to insist so strongly that they must be doesn't make sense to me.

[Riabi]

EBWOP: Mavs also brings out a good point about Prana. I'm reluctant to vote for anyone right now before I re-read the game, but FOS on Prana for sure.