Jigsaw's Revenge - Game Over

[momo]

Hello all you lovely people. So I'm in a hood, and our dear mod declined to give us a roster of who is in there.

I find it unusual that nobody has commented on this post.

I'm in a daychat PT too. There are at least 3 other players in it.

There are 21 players total, 16 town and 5 same-side scum.

Let's make some assumptions.

There are two neighborhoods or more, each with at least 4 players.

Nobody picked up on Drixx's post, because they don't want to out themselves as in his Private Topic or in a PT at all. If people weren't in a hood, they would be more interested in Drixx who claimed he was in one. Nothing in the setup said anything about PTs, except that daychat is active for all of them. So we have to assume everyone is in one.

Now what bothers me is the player count. Why 21 players and not 20? With 20 players, you can have 4-player or 5-player PTs with an even distribution.

21 can only be divided by 7. So are there 3 PTs, with 7 players each? If so, in my PT, 3 players have stayed on the sidelines so far, with 4 including myself announcing our presence, and in another PT, we know of Drixx.

What are possible distributions of scum in the PTs in 3 7-player PTs? 2-2-1, 2-3-0, or 5-0-0. The first one is the most likely (60%), the second one unlikely (30%), and the third option highly improbable (10%).

Therefore, if my assumption is correct that we're all in a PT, and that we all have scum in our PT, it's not safe to post our insights in the PTs as scum have daytalk and can share information, keeping the town out of the loop on content and slowing down scumhunting.

There's another possibility, however:

There could be a masons.

In this case, 21 players could break down like this:
3 masons in their hood
18 players remaining, 3 hoods with 6 players each

So here's what I'm thinking:
1) It's not safe to massclaim our PTs
2) It's safe for someone to claim not to be in a PT, although they might be lying about it and we don't have the means to verify.
3) If you're in a PT, you should announce your presence to the PT participants. Otherwise, you are damaging town cohesion and would therefore most likely be scum.
4) As the game progresses, if we clean out 2 scum from a single PT, it's probable that the remaining are town.

I like the setup analysis, but I'm not sure how I feel about point #4. If everyone or most people are in a PT, the PT selection would probably be random to keep the game somewhat balanced. That said, I'm still doubting that every single person would be in a PT and it would be unmentioned in the game.

If we have a limited number of PTs that don't include all the members, I could see something like 1 scum per PT and the other scum free floating along with some town players.

In that case, it would make sense to at least establish the number of PTs we have, right?

[momo]

Has anyone in this game played with Morning Tweet before? I'm not really liking the vibes I'm getting from her, but I don't if that's normal.

Post #165 is a clear attempt at budding someone that appears to be a town leader going into the game, but her posts become most problematic when you get to Post #174.

"But what if it's

, like,

one of those doors"

When speaking out loud, people naturally add in filled words such as "like" or "um" to fill space because they are uncomfortable with silence while they are thinking. Making a post with the word "like" as Morning Tweet did here is not natural, it's a deliberate decision. The only possible motivation I can imagine for that decision is to appear more trustworthy/relateable. There's no reason for town to make that decision and for that reason, I VOTE: Morning Tweet.

[momo]

Am I reading this correctly? you drew my alignment from the use of the word "like"?

Not entirely. Seeing it gave me the urge to read your iso, and BM nailed the characterization of your interactions with ABR pretty well. This is furthered by you making post 207 after BM expressed his concerns but not responding to them.

I'm inclined to believe the support you've gotten regarding your tone from the other members of the town but I have three questions for you before I do.
1. Why didn't you respond to BM's thoughts of your interactions with ABR?
2. Why are you trying to buddy ABR? Do you have any reads that you want ABR's support to get hear or is it just to ensure your protection?
3. If this casual tone is something that you keep constant across all games, why do you choose to use it?

[momo]

Am I reading this correctly? you drew my alignment from the use of the word "like"?

Not entirely. Seeing it gave me the urge to read your iso, and BM nailed the characterization of your interactions with ABR pretty well. This is furthered by you making post 207 after BM expressed his concerns but not responding to them.

I'm inclined to believe the support you've gotten regarding your tone from the other members of the town but I have three questions for you before I do.
1. Why didn't you respond to BM's thoughts of your interactions with ABR?
2. Why are you trying to buddy ABR? Do you have any reads that you want ABR's support to get hear or is it just to ensure your protection?
3. If this casual tone is something that you keep constant across all games, why do you choose to use it?

1. He said he thought it was scummy when I said "I love this guy!", because he perceived that as buddying-- I don't really.. see it that way. I do love the effort Albert is putting in!
2. this is a bit of a loaded question.. I'm not buddying ABR. I like him and what he's trying to get started regarding the neighbourhood nonsense (^ω^)
3. I played very seriously when I originally joined the site in 2016. It made me anxious and i had so little fun that I left the site. Now I'm having way more fun!

addendum: i don't equate a more casual playstyle with throwing the game, either. On day one especially, I try to find a few solid townreads. i think it's unreasonable for me to catch scum on the first day, so I *mostly* just find varying degrees of towniness and vote outside of that

This is a very good post. MT is denying the premise of my accusations but doing so with nuance. It's honestly what I would imagine as a town response to my post. UNVOTE:

[momo]

I'm really not liking this line of thought from Elsa Jay. This game is 16:5. We know that. It's mod-confirmed fact. This implies that there is one scum team and I agree with pk when he says at this point, it's almost irrelevant if there's a traitor. EJ is doing setup analysis, trying to appear as if he is contributing to town but it's through a series of posts that don't actually give town meaningful information. When one of the lines in the mod post is "confirmed 16 vs 5" there's no need to get into all of this.

VOTE: Elsa Jay

[momo]

I'm really not liking this line of thought from Elsa Jay. This game is 16:5. We know that. It's mod-confirmed fact. This implies that there is one scum team and I agree with pk when he says at this point, it's almost irrelevant if there's a traitor. EJ is doing setup analysis, trying to appear as if he is contributing to town but it's through a series of posts that don't actually give town meaningful information. When one of the lines in the mod post is "confirmed 16 vs 5" there's no need to get into all of this.

VOTE: Elsa Jay

Are you aware of the fact that what Elsa is suggesting is allowed by the rules? He's suggesting the Acolytes are split into two PTs, and I think it's a fair thing to speculate about given the ratio of scum to town in this game.

For example, we could have two groups of Acolytes that alternate nightkills. They may know each other but not be able to communicate. A lot is possible here.

The Paperwork Command is asking me to lower you on my reads list.

I don't see how that makes Elsa scum in any case. My main interest here is trying to avoid going down a 10 page rabbit hole into a wonderland where Boon game mechanics start showing up in other people's themes.

Can't rule out Elsa being scum for other reasons though. Scum!Elsa is quite capable of making an argument that shouldn't come from scum to try to throw us off.

The vote on Elsa is driven largely by not seeing a better alternative. I don't hard scumread EJ at all, but I had an immediate reaction to a post and I'm happy with my vote there. It's furthering discussion, and giving us meaningful information in the form of reactions, a system that I believe works D1, just like it did on MT.

Sure, it's possible that we could have 2 groups of scum with the same wincon, but I have personally never seen that before. When it comes to a 16:5, I can't imagine that being balanced. Hectic, I'm aware that is's allowed within the rules, but it's really unlikely. A lot is possible here, but that doesn't make it likely. It's also not something any of us can prove in any way.

Dave is right. We need to avoid this discussion. It's not going to go anywhere. It isn't necessarily scum, but spending time discussing mechanics with pure speculation certainly isn't pro town.

[momo]

If people weren't in a hood, they would be more interested in Drixx who claimed he was in one.

TBH, I almost commented on it, and now that you mention another hood I am even more intrigued because I am not in either (nor am I in any other hood/PT). But you know what the problem is? The problem is I have stayed "hidden" while I was in a hood at least 3 times before (once as scum and twice as town), so I don't think anyone would believe me here (and especially the one pictured below, as he was in two of these 3 games).



In short, I hereby claim that I am in no hoods/PTs. Take it as you will.

Interesting. I don't think that everyone should massclaim just yet, but if we take this to be true, there are people not in hoods. My question for you a50, is that you have made 10 posts and were the subject of the leading wagon and haven't yet case a single vote. Why?

To everyone, can we try and get a handle on the number of PTs, along with information regarding how many people have posted in each PT from your respective PT ambassadors. Once we get this information, we can determine if a mass claim will be beneficial.

[momo]

ABR is probably scum for the setup spec

VOTE: ABR

Hot take. Why?

[momo]

at this stage we may as well just claim who is in what hood. can designated hood champions please list the people they think are in their hoods and someone can keep a tally.

Vetoed.

I agree. Hood champions please list the NUMBER OF PEOPLE in your hood. This way, we can have informed discussion about the number of scum in each hood.

[momo]

Yeah, Drixx not looking at the front page whether it was just a copy of the playerlist is kinda.....yikes

Ninja'd me here on my last post but this completely.

[momo]

Massclaiming early game is never done for a good reason.

In this case I feel like there's obvious modfuckery going on.

I'd prefer we didnt talk about the hoods at all D1, and just hunted for scum.

I agree with this.

I appreciate why we are having this discussion and the paranoia that comes from having private information, but the simple fact is that there is simply no utility to a neighborhood if we are committing to outing everything that is being said within a neighborhood. There are legitimate reasons why a neighborhood is better than the public thread for saying certain things, and within them lies a potential tool for reducing the process of elimination for which neighborhoods currently have scum within them. The mafia team's greatest asset is that they have more information than the town does, but town can leverage that into forcing the scumteam to show that to the town. Removing that option, to me, is a strange one.

There is little to gain from this for right now. A better course of action is to let it be and if something interesting happens that somebody feels should be in the main thread, then they will post it here. There is no need for ambassadors or to analyze the hoods at this time.

---

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

He had the most awkward entrance to the game.

I don't know if I would call Gamma's entrance to the game awkward. In fact, in my (admittedly outdated) experience with Gamma, I can't see him playing as casually as he is right now as scum. I have him as a decent townlean right now.

The one suspicious factor I can see with Gamma is that he has kept is vote on BM from RVS even as a wagon begins to build on BM.

@Gamma, is this an oversight are do you have a reason?
@Blake, did that factor into your vote on Gamma at all? Your reasoning was vague.

[momo]

I am feeling Battle Mage, GeorgeBailey, pisskop, momo, BBMolla as some solid D1 townreads.

I especially like BM's vote on DanyBoy and I want to add another

VOTE: iDanyBoy

very little engagement from him and I agree 223 is a bizarre post, the assumption that scum fake claims are flavor linked to the PTs feels angle-shooty in a way that I don't think is likely to come from town. It feels more likely to be an excuse to push a mislynch later - 'they claimed [x] role and they're not in [y] hood' - and less like something DanyBoy genuinely believes is useful in finding scum.

I'm also not in any hoods so if any of you all have a recruit or something get me in on some neighborhood action cause I wanna be in there

The interesting thing about 223 is that the logic involved would exonerate scum who are in hoods if they (using common sense) claim to be a part of said hood. If you view iDb to be scum, then this post almost confirms the existence of scum within at least one of the hoods. As you said, this logic would also further the policy lynch of those not in hoods such as yourself.

I want to know what Danyboy was thinking when he made this post. Not ready to lynch him just yet, but this is a good place to start our first major wagon. VOTE: iDanyboy

[momo]

VOTE: Guilty Lion

Nice post overall (glad to see someone agrees with my logic about needing to know the number of people in each hood) but why vote GL? You didn't say.

[momo]

Can someone on the GL wagon please explain to me what the case on him actually is?

I may have missed something, but it just appears to be ABR's gut feelings. Now, I townread ABR, but people shouldn't just be sheeping his feelings. There's nothing overtly scummy about GL. At least on the DanBoy wagon, we have a fairly suspicious post. If the lynch is gaining momentum just because he isn't in a hood, I still disagree with it. There are (imo) scummier people not in hoods.

[momo]

Drixx vs Vecna feels very TvT to me. That said, I don't like how willing Hectic was to drop a vote on Vecna just because ABR told him to. I get that he's on V/LA, but I don't particularly like any of the current wagons, especially with the way they have all seemed to stall. Reading through his iso, I get the feeling that even though Hectic is providing some reads, he doesn't particularly believe in them or rather isn't committed to them. For a brief period he was active and made his presence known in the came, so it itsn't as if he's playing with minimal effort. He just doesn't particularly care who the D1 lynch.

VOTE: Hectic

[momo]

Hey guys, fuck off of me. I don't really play D1, and it's a shitty reason to suspect them. This isn't 2012 where LAL is all the rage. I have a consistent track record of being godawful shit when I tryhard D1, and a much better track record when I skip it and wait for the initial dumbfuckery to die down. I can provide numerous examples of this meta if need be.

Because Cakez is insisting that I provide content instead of just proddodging through D1, I will skim the last 5-10 pages and find a decent vote to put down.

This is a complete and utter fabrication btw.

Last time I saw Pine try he had the game nearly solved day1 in his hood

What the hell are you talking about? The Search? That was a bizarre and off-meta game, where I was a Lyncher who suspected my target was scum, and one of the other scumteam literally outed himself to us in our neighborhood. Finding the third was trivial at that point.

Holy shit, that cherry-picking is disingenuous as fuck.

This is big if true. Can someone link that game?

Also, I apologize for my relative lack of content the last couple days. It's a lot harder to post during the week than on weekends.

[momo]

You don't just go from townreading someone and advocating not lynching them today (all of the above), to being "99%" sure they're scum. This is exactly the sort of false bravado and confidence scum like to exhibit, and sometimes gets them townread:

I disagree with this. Scum will try and keep their reads as consistent as possible to avoid suspicion, especially a player as active as ABR. It's hard to read ABR this game, but the fact that he was willing to make a noted change to his reads as the game progressed has to be counted as townpoints, def not scummy.

[momo]

ABR or hectic might be scum-- not sure there yet

i was promised something exciting, BM! unless i missed it

Do you see people's reasons for calling me an Acolyte? It sounds like cutting corners and poor storytelling to me!

Morning!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

no i didnt see you do something specifically scummy, but i havent gotten my TR on you yet either :c The interaction between u and ABR i just think could be telling

@ABR wasn't there like, two people voting dave at that point? It wasn't going places like you make it out to have been. and you do like your reaction tests, cant i naked vote xtom if id like to?

I promise if we lynch Momo today, we can lynch xtoxm tomorrow - deal?

BM is trying to line up lynches. This is never good behavior from town D1.

[momo]

Also BM, what was the point of you making a readlist over the course of like 4 different posts other than to show off the fact that you're scumhunting? That's a calculated move.

[momo]

184 - Completely bizarre. Initially thought it was too out there to be scum, but then reconsidered that he could be aware of that, and the calculated way he pushes it makes it a little more scummy.

Genuine question. Earlier in this game, you called ABR scummy for going from townreading you to placing a vote on you.

You've now done the exact same thing to me.

Is it not scummy when you do it? Or were just using that as an excuse to get a wagon on ABR,

This is why my vote is on Hectic guys.

[momo]

I'm in a PT with

Pine
momo - attack on the bat is so weird it's town, but depends on meta
Morning Tweet - maybe towny but might just be tone
Elsa Jay - awkward entrance, Bambi could be scum
Gamma Emerald - our savior and the protagonist of this story
VaultDweller
Vecna
iDanyboy - probably town
GeorgeBailey - GeorgeBailey
Drixx
davesaz - bit off
farside
Battle Mage - who knows with this guy
BBmolla
GuiltyLion - i will sheep GeorgeBailey
pisskop - natural and healthy
Albert B. Rampage - i reserve judgement for now
Almost50 - disliked joke response to my question, pointing out "crumb"
xtoxm - okay push on farside
Blake Belladonna - Hello.

184 - Completely bizarre. Initially thought it was too out there to be scum, but then reconsidered that he could be aware of that, and the calculated way he pushes it makes it a little more scummy.

Genuine question. Earlier in this game, you called ABR scummy for going from townreading you to placing a vote on you.

You've now done the exact same thing to me.

Is it not scummy when you do it? Or were just using that as an excuse to get a wagon on ABR,

This is why my vote is on Hectic guys.

I was always unsure about you.

Maybe, but the most definitive of your townreads initially in 236 is me. You can point out that you added the qualifier it depends on meta, but for everyone else you said something like probably town or likely town, yet for me, you said, its town. On top of that, the qualifier you gave was depends on meta, but u haven't done any meta diving, and as far as I can tell, other than Gamma saying that I've been a lurker in the past (sorry about that past) there's been no discussion about my meta. You're being disingenuous. You scumread ABR for doing the exact same thing as you did. That's terrible town play at best, or, more likely, scum.

[momo]

Meta-cases are tricky because people change as time passes, but I don't think it's that common for somebody to go from being an authoritative and decisive town-leader, to a whimpering pleading town-passenger.

Why on Earth would you characterize me as a whimpering pleading town-passenger. First of all, the notion of me being a passenger is total bull shit. The current wagon on Hectic, I started that. I get that you want everything to fit your narrative, but if you even took the time look at a single vote count, you would see that the first vote on the current Hectic wagon is me.

I have changed my vote as the day progressed, but that doesn't make me a pleading passenger in any sense of the word. I've started and joined wagons as the game progressed. From my initial vote on Morning Tweet to now, my vote has always been exactly where I want it to be. Just because I've grown as a player and realized how FOOLISH you have to be to proclaim a game of forum mafia completely solved D1, doesn't mean that I'm whimpering. I get that you think of yourself as some sort of super genius, but you're not. You're nowhere near solving this game and honestly, chances are I'm not either. I think Hectic is scum, that's why I'm voting him, but I don't say ridiculous things anymore like proclaim to catching the entire scum team through preflip associatives D1.

I can be as bullish as you want, but there's a reason I haven't been playing like that (or I guess like this since you've clearly managed to bait me) this game. Mafia is a game of consensus building. I'm not well known enough on this site to be bullish and to tell people to follow me and to expect successful wagons on my scumreads.

To conclude, I'm not whimpering and I'm certainly not pleading. The fact that you would falsely characterize me as such is frankly insulting. I'm playing smart, even if that's something you can't understand.

[momo]

The wagon on me has built ridiculously fast and is almost certainly scum driven. How fast I went from being widely townleaned/read is not natural. Hectic points out that he's been crumbing cop the whole game, but it's absolutely the fakest crumbing I've seen in a while. Scum can call themselves detective in their posts too.

It's clear that y'all aren't believing me, so I've decided to claim.

I am Simone, a 1-shot Trap Immune Survivor.

I was hoping that I wouldn't have to claim, so that scum could waste one of their traps on me, but it is what it is. Lynching me rn is not smart because scum can't get rid of me when they want to. My role adds value to this town.

[momo]

wait what
isnt this game confirmed no 3ps

It's not a 3rd party role.

It's a town role. Survivor is just the name of our PT. Being 1-shot trap immune is my role.

[momo]

The wagon on me has built ridiculously fast and is almost certainly scum driven. How fast I went from being widely townleaned/read is not natural. Hectic points out that he's been crumbing cop the whole game, but it's absolutely the fakest crumbing I've seen in a while. Scum can call themselves detective in their posts too.

It's clear that y'all aren't believing me, so I've decided to claim.

I am Simone, a 1-shot Trap Immune Survivor.

I was hoping that I wouldn't have to claim, so that scum could waste one of their traps on me, but it is what it is. Lynching me rn is not smart because scum can't get rid of me when they want to. My role adds value to this town.

Confirm vote: momo

What happened that drastically changed your read of me?

[momo]

I have faith in SirCakez' ability to write a good storyline. A hero will come to my rescue. I believe.

I'm not taking it personally regardless of your alignment, Albert; I'm just still a little baffled by the play and somewhat struggle to see it coming from town.

If momo flips scum, it makes you look better because of the hood. Otherwise, I can definitely see what you've done here as coming from scum as an act of performance/false bravado to get people to wagon a townie, and defuse pressure from other potential scum wagons at the time.

This def is fake on ABR's part. If I die today, remember that. He knows that survivor is a PT name, not a 3rd party role. I've said that it's not a 3rd party role. ABR is in the survivor PT. He's trying to wagon me under false pretenses.

[momo]

It's not a 3rd party role.

It's a town role. Survivor is just the name of our PT. Being 1-shot trap immune is my role.

[momo]

I'm not running anyone else up today. If a doc is out there he can safely guard Hectic without worrying about being forced to claim. I'm ready to wrap this up and go to night if you are too xtoxm.

And now he's rushing my lynch by saying let's go to night.

VOTE: ABR

[momo]

It's not a 3rd party role.

It's a town role. Survivor is just the name of our PT. Being 1-shot trap immune is my role.

Remember what BM said about your town play being aggressive and bombastic. You didn't play the way a bulletproof town plays, and given both of your claims we have no choice but to end this now.

This is stupid at best and disingenuous at worst. We have literally 19 other options. We have four days to lynch someone else. Yeah, I'm not play agressively. Want to know a fact you can check with my meta.

I've never made it to LyLo as town because I always get lynched. I'm playing less agressively because I would like to actually see a game to it's end.

[momo]

Momo, why word it so confusingly and not clarify that in the first post? Also, kindly explain what a fucking Trap is. Is that the gimmick here? Are we dealing with a team of Poisoners?

That's the way the role was worded in the mod PM. Nothing I can do about it.

Traps are the way Saw kills people. It's from the source material.

[momo]

You think I'm the scum in our PT? I don't believe you.

It can't be anyone else.

momo - I know for a fact I'm town.
Pine - Yes, he's lurked a bit but nothing about his play seems particularly scummy.
Battle Mage - I don't like that he's scumreading me, but his casual tone and attempts at actually scumhunting don't seem scummy.
ABR - I can't read you well, but you've tried to make it seem like you're 100% town too deliberately and the way you're pushing this wagon is very sus. Your play seems scummy.

So yeah, out of the 4 of us, you're most likely scum.

[momo]

wait what
isnt this game confirmed no 3ps

Yeah

wait then ABR why the laugh emoji here, I thought this was you laughing at Momo's claim?

His claim is not believable to me regardless of it not being a 3p claim.

That's my mod-given role. You not believing it doesn't make it any less true. You're too adamant about this. Pushing for a mislynch this hard is obvscumming.

I stand by my vote on ABR.

[momo]

momo why the flip flop on BM now? Yesterday you seemed to think he was scummy

I still do to some extent. But if we frame the discussion as one person in our PT being scum, I think AbR is scummier and it shines a townier light on BM. I don’t like either of them, but the interactions between ABR and BM make me more likely to view ABR as scum
And BM as town.

[momo]

Momo, why word it so confusingly and not clarify that in the first post? Also, kindly explain what a fucking Trap is. Is that the gimmick here? Are we dealing with a team of Poisoners?

the more I think about this the more this is a super scummy post regardless of Momo's alignment, btw

I actually don't think I want to assume "there must be a scum in the hood" regarding the Survivor group, if momo townflips I don't think that has to point to scum in the other three. It's good to consider but I'm not convinced it's necessarily true.

I mean, the movies strongly imply that there is an acolyte in the survivors. Ofcourse, that is also the best way for a sadistic mod like cakez ( ) to create some awesome drama in this game.

ANYWAYS

Anyone could also figure out that the survivor PT is most likely to contain the strongest town PR's.

I WANT TO KNOW

_WHO_

In that PT started the witchhunt and instigated the others to join them.

Because -that- is the most likely scumslot in there.

BM was the one who first said he thought I was scum in the PT and ABR has believed pretty much the entire game that 1 in 4 of us have to be scum.

When I asked him what he thought of Pine lurking, he said Pine had to be scum because 1 in 4 and the rest of us (including me) are prolly town.

When BM asked ABR about me, he said I had to be scum because 1 in 4 and the other 3 (now including Pine) are town.

It’s ridiculously scummy. If that’s ur criteria for voting, vote ABR