Newbie 2004: Trash Panada Hour. Redux! GAME OVER

[Blair]

Greetings!

I was promised panadas.

88% of living players in this game are replacements. This presents a unique challenge! I'll review the thread over the next 24 hours.

Gibus, as the sole remainder of the original playlist, can I trouble you for a tl;dr?

[Blair]

I can't very reasonably defend my predecessor's actions (as I cannot explain them any better than anyone else), nor can I objectively survey them (I know he was town), so I'll just provide the post Battle Mage is referring to for everyone's ease of reference:

Spoiler:

@Freddie why aren't you voting FF? And what about FF do you find scummy?
Do you scum read Copycat/Me? But I'm most interested in your read of Copycat's posts. And do you scum read Osuka/Ironcat? I'm more interested in your thoughts on Osuka's posts though.

Freddie, can you answer this?

Ironcat was unvoted by me. We established that, I could have been wrong but it seemed reasonable to me so I acted on it. Osuka has been just shitting on everyone’s posts and being loud. The loudness may be an attempted substance but I can’t read it yet.

Fish, what’s a vanity vote?

I’m not voting fish atm because I think he’s scummy but it might be deliberate. It reminds me of the quote “I think a servant of the enemy would look fairer and feel fouler”. I’m still not sure enough to vote him, which is why I never voted him.

How do I officially claim my role? Do I send a screen shot of my message from Elmo? I’m not scum.

Vanity vote is a vote on a wagon that has no legs, you vote there because youre vain and think you know better.

You claim by saying what you are, if youre a town pr I would just say PR for right now, so we dont clue scum in anymore than needed.

do NOT send a screenshot. you cant quote or anything like that. you dont need to claim since no one has stated intent to hammer. a vanity wagon is one that doesnt have momentum, so basically wasting your vote on a non-wagon. also, are you feeling FF to know how foul he feels?

Okay, guys. My role is VT. I’m shit at lying. I’m just bad at this game! Did waves officially claim also?

Thanks for the vanity-vote explanation.

I’m trying to feel him. But I think he’s not scum. Gut feeling.

I think they are going to get me either way and I have no PR. Hahaha I’m so bad strategically. I’m like the squirrel in the Rose that gets killed cause I’m indecisive! Bye everyone

It seems fairly evident to me that Freddie was a flustered newbie who didn't understand when or if he should claim. He also received contradictory advice when he asked, with one person telling him not to claim at all, and another telling him to claim but not to specify his exact role if he is a PR.

With the benefit of experience and competency, I can infer that the latter advice was meant to be for *if* Freddie chose to claim, and was not expressly commanding him to do so, but I doubt a flustered newbie would be able to confidently discern the difference.

Battle Mage, can you explain exactly what you believe Freddie's thought process was with regards to the alleged "slip" in the his claim?

[Blair]

My final word on the claim topic (again, I can't really explain my predecessor's posts - which makes it a convenient avenue, by the way) is this:

The whole case against it boils down to, "No way Freddie was THAT much of a newb." To which I submit: This is Freddie's second game, and first time claiming. He subbed into his first game and it ended with him sitting on 30~ posts and not voting in LyLo.

This was Freddie's first time claiming. If he were scum, wouldn't his questions about it, which he asked on the thread, have been asked in the Scum PT?

It's also mildly scummy that Lilith acknowledged Votsto's answer ("You don't need to claim") because it bolstered her case but didn't acknowledge Formerfish's answer ("Claim but just say PR if you're a PR") - even though that is evidently the post Freddie responded to when he claimed.

"This is so obviously scummy that the only explanation can be that he did it for towncred," is a tad dramatic, when, "He evidently WAS that much of a newb," seems the likelier answer.

I should conclude my reread tonight.

[Blair]

Elmo, you are a saint for identifying the replacements in the vote count.

More panadas, please.

[Blair]

Usually, I like to hunt for scum by sussing out the players who seemed to mysteriously "forsee" the Day 1 mislynch. So, I rolled up my sleeves and dove straight into vote count analysis -

as I was doing so, something else caught my eye.

I noticed two odd things about the Wavesarc (Brassherald) mislynch wagon development. I'm not going to editorialize (yet), let's start with the facts:

---

FormerFish

Formerfish cast the first vote on what would eventually become the wagon that mislynched Wavesarc here:

VOTE: Brass

Let's dance.

At this point, Gibus has joined FormerFish in voting for Brass herald (Wavesarc), and FormerFish decides to hop off the wagon onto Freddie:

VOTE: Freddie

We aren't lynching Tux today unless someone builds a fucking scotus level brief against them and destroys the view I have of that slot on review.

Copy was bleeding town.

Since then, three more people have joined Gibus in voting for Wavesarc, and FormerFish decides to return to the wagon and hammer:

VOTE: Waves

You scum bro?

---

Gibus

Gibus casts what is ostensibly an RVS vote for Brassherald (Wavesarc) as the first in a series of 9 rapid-fire votes over the course of his next 13 consecutive posts, beginning here:

VOTE: Brassherald

And ending back on Brassherald again, here:

I'll just stick with brass for now. VOTE: brassherald

He then reiterates his Brassherald (Wavesarc) vote here (this was not a vote movement, his vote was already on him):

Quicksolve: brass, lilith, formerfish

VOTE: brassherald

Much later, after FormerFish has started the wagon that will eventually mislynch Wavesarc, Gibus rejoins as the second vote on the wagon:

Do not scumread me for this please, but I'm going to sheep Fish and Nauci and change my vote in 3 posts.
VOTE: brassherald (wavesarc)

---

Now we editorialize:

It seems

extremely

arrogant of me to suggest a solve so early in the game, but here's what may have happened:

Gibus made up his mind from early in the game that he was gunning for Brassherald (Wavesarc). I won't pretend to read his mind and guess why, but the fact that he was is more than evident.

FormerFish started a wagon on Brassherald (Wavesarc) and Gibus jumped on board. As it became more evident that Wavesarc was not going to get any townier and he became a more and more viable lynch, FormerFish blinked first. The fact that he jumped back in to hammer without much rhyme or reason suggests that FormerFish didn't mind lynching Wavesarc, he just didn't like seeing his name right next to Gibus in the vote count.

Theory:

FormerFish/Gibus Scum team?

VOTE: Gibus

I'll start here because Gibus is still here to talk to us about the above. We'll have more to talk to FormerFish's replacement about after he reacts to his partner's tragic lynching today.

Hark! Let us commence our steadfast march toward a glorious town victory!

[Blair]

Do you think that scum!Gibus would really make post 768? IDK if it's a newbie game thing, but half of the players in this game have made wildly LAMIST posts that I can barely fathom to the point I no longer know what to make of the whole genre

He is a new enough player that he has no completed games yet. Arguments based on, "We all know this would be an unforced error as scum," don't apply very well to new players.

Why do you think town is less likely to RVS vote an eventual D1 lynch?

I don't. I suggested you were fixated on Brassherald because you voted for him over and over again throughout the phase - reducing my analysis to a single RVS vote as you have done here seems disingenuous, yes?

Also what do you think of my interaction with Fish? Does it affect your theory?

Say more about this. The implication here is that you believe it should ("affect [my] theory") - explain what parts of your interaction should affect my theory and why.

[Blair]

You said, "sus out the players who seemed to mysteriously "forsee" the Day 1 mislynch" and pointed to my RVS vote as scumtell, which implies that scum is likelier (than town) to RVS vote an eventual D1 lynch. Or am I misinterpreting this?

You're misunderstanding. I said I "usually" look for that - but if you read the rest of that statement, I said, "something else," had caught my attention. i.e. This is outside of that formula.

That was just an introduction to explain what sent me back to Day 1 analysis in the first place.

[Blair]

Also I don't seen any case on FF other than "he hammered waves without much reason". Do you have anything more?

Yeah, a lot more, but it all boils down to, "There were some very strange circumstances surrounding Wavesarc's mislynch wagon and FormerFish happens to be the main driver of those dynamics," which I won't reiterate here because I outlined them in the post you're referencing.

[Blair]

The short version is: He started the wagon (with little conviction), seemed to become uncomfortable when you joined him on the wagon, jumped off, then jumped back on to hammer (with no evidence of any new conviction).

[Blair]

just checking in to say you're all doing well - Nauci is the lynch today. Gibus is giving me some little townpings.

Why Nauci?

What townpings?

[Blair]

If everyone is caught up, could I get a read list from the replacements? Sorry, everything is a bit up in the air at the moment. So I'd appreciate being able to pin down where people stand specifically, and not just how they feel about certain major moments.

I don't really work that way (I don't typically have hard reads on anyone, rather I develop "If/Then" reads based on how likely I consider certain interpretations of particular events), but I will attempt to satisfy your request. If I had to represent my current impression of the gamestate as a formal read list, it would be:

Scum

Battle Mage
Gibus
Aloratom
Tuxedo Mask
Nauci
Dunnstral
BBmolla
Blair

Town

P-edit:

I don't 'get' this. Why is it likely for Gibus to have wanted to mislynch Wavesarc from the start, vs that being a real read that formed?

That part was an observation, not an opinion. You should ask Gibus why he was tunneling Brassherald/Wavesarc the entire phase, instead of asking me why he was likely to do so - unless I am misunderstanding the question?

[Blair]

I thought it was a case

It was - but the part you asked me to clarify was a factual observation, not an interpretation.

Either you are disputing the veracity of my observation (you are welcome to do so!), or you are questioning one of my interpretations in a sort of awkward way.

Help me understand which one it is so I can respond?

[Blair]

I didn't tunnel.
He was null here - #391

This appears to be lean-scum? I don't actually see a null section.

[Blair]

I don't get how it is a factual observation - has Gibus admitted to it?

You're saying that he wanted to lynch Wave from the start of the game - it looks like they disagreed with you above.

In the post you initially responded to, I outlined Gibus' vote movements as they related to Brassherald on Day 1, and it seemed apparent to me that Gibus' vote returned to Brassherald again and again, more than any other player. If you disagree, say so and provide evidence, instead of asking vague questions without acknowledging the posts and vote history I have already provided in the post you quoted.

[Blair]

Ok, can you explain your progression? When did he become null and why did you then switch back to scum!Brass when FormerFish started a new wagon on him?

[Blair]

(Dunnstral should also weigh in soon with his actual opinion instead of continuing to frame this as a conversation between Gibus and myself)

[Blair]

We've played together before, Dunnstral; I'm strangely aggressive all the time, but I don't feel like I've been aggressive about this?

[Blair]

Talk to me about Gibus. What's your theory?

[Blair]

The tunnel isn't scummy by itself - the juxtaposition of Gibus' awkward tunnel and FormerFish's awkward bookending of the mislynch together present such a peculiar circumstance that I want to explore it with rope.

[Blair]

He is a new enough player that he has no completed games yet. Arguments based on, "We all know this would be an unforced error as scum," don't apply very well to new players.

If I'm understanding you correctly (which I may not be, because I'm currently Asiam-girl-drunk trying to cope with getting old), you're saying that the vote change there is a scummy unforced error, but that newbies are prone to doing that kind of thing?

I was trying to ask if you thought that Gibus, as scum, would post the vote acknowledging that the sheep vote appears scummy.

Yes, the acknowledgement that it looks scummy is exactly the sort of lampshading I expect from newer players, so I don't consider it a point in his favor because the wisdom to "say less" here as scum is something that comes with experience.

[Blair]

Beetlejuicing on Day 1

Can you explain what you mean by this? Is this the same as my "Bloody Mary" pattern, or something different.

[Blair]

I'm glad you clarified because I thought you were referring to my lampshade reference and I was wondering what definitive film source you could possibly be referring to.

[Blair]

What does Bloody Marying/Beetlejuicing mean? Like you say their name and they appear, but how does that relate to game theory?

The idea is that it isn't inherently scummy to be inactive, but when you're inactive but still show up immediately whenever your name is brought up... you aren't authentically inactive (because you've been reading along often enough to always respond quickly to direct accusations).

I wouldn't characterize it as a "tell," but it indicates you are putting forward a facade ("I'm too busy to babysit the thread") while silently monitoring the thread.

Molla, what are your thoughts on Gibus, and why was FormerFish town for you?

[Blair]

She's paranoid about me because I was hyper-active in our last game together and I haven't been in this one.

To which I would counter: On multiple occasions I made substantial posts in this game and then remained the most recent poster for hours at a time. This is clearly a slow moving game, and it's the only game I'm in right now, so I haven't been checking the site as often.


Paranoia is hard to fake, so she's moving further up my town pile for now.

[Blair]

@Nauci, I think it's just a long game with pages and pages of pretty toxic fighting that isn't even solving related. Just a bit of a slog to read.

I'll be honest, this is the reason. The reread was miserable and nobody feels like dwelling on it.

I was hoping to get enough interaction from my Gibus/BM push to start developing more robust reads there because all the bickering in Day 1 felt so disconnected from the actual game (personality conflicts) that it's hard to know which posts to develop reads from and which posts are just empty vitriol.

[Blair]

Aloratom has felt somewhat "off" since I subbed in, but I need consultation because I can't decide if it's Aloratom being scum or Aloratom being Aloratom.

Tuxedo seems to be focused more on clarifying and answering questions about the game state than solving the game state, but with what a dumpster fire this game turned into before Replacemageddon™ I can't decide if it's a well-meaning attempt to steer the game back on track or just scum avoiding scumhunting.

[Blair]

We can be buddies but only outside of this game

When you get cold out there all by your lonesome, remember there's always room in my pocket.

[Blair]

For Blair

[Blair]

We are just a little over 24 hours from deadline now, so it's probably time to start consolidating wagons. There are three non-me players with votes on them right now, and one of them is Nauci, whom I am townreading. That's going to be a hard-pass.

One of them is Gibus, whom I am already voting, and no one seems keen to join me today.

That leaves Dunnstral. I'm null on Dunnstral right now, because he hasn't really done anything to set off my radar, but he also hasn't done much period. He's said a lot without saying much of anything if you catch my drift. If I can't have Gibus, Dunn will do.

VOTE: Dunnstral

This is L-2.

If anyone wants to last minute power wagon Gibus with me I'm keen for it.

[Blair]

VOTE: Gibus

Much love.

[Blair]

Tuxedo also looks slightly townier for that post.

[Blair]

Are you?

Press him on it. That post dubious #40 scumread might be a good place to start.

[Blair]

*dubious post #40

ugh

[Blair]

VOTE: Gibus

Much love.

Y'all hopping off of each others' wagons immediately as they become at all viable is making it real hard for me to town read you, yo

"Hopping off" "as they become viable"?

What happened between when I joined the Dunn wagon and when I left it that made it more viable?

(Hint: Literally nothing, because the only thing that happened to the Dunn wagon during that time period

was

my vote)

This was disingenuous.

[Blair]

Aloratom has felt somewhat "off" since I subbed in, but I need consultation because I can't decide if it's Aloratom being scum or Aloratom being Aloratom.

So... you're not on board with my logic that there was no way votato would defend Freddie that way as scum? Why not?

What part of what I said above indicates what you said below?

[Blair]

I'm null on Dunnstral right now

VOTE: Dunnstral

What happened to FF, your other scumread?

This is one of the grossest quote cherry picks I have ever seen.

It's abundantly clear from that post (all the important parts you cut out of it without indicating that you had done so) that I am consolidating wagons due to the impending deadline. No one was, or is, voting for FormerFish/Battle Mage. So unless you are indicating you are suddenly interested in cobbling a Battle Mage together in the next 24 hours (this would be a stunning development on your part), it is not at all clear why you even made this post.

VOTE: bbmolla

This is the osuka slot if you'd like.

What a strange post.

[Blair]

You made it L-2. You knew that Dunn was my other scum read, and you knew Gibus was willing to lynch there, so it was risky to leave him at -2

Check the time stamps on those posts you're referring to.

Are you suggesting it was my dastardly scum plan to place Dunnstral at L-2 for five nanoseconds, then freak out and unvote?

[Blair]

Aloratom has felt somewhat "off" since I subbed in, but I need consultation because I can't decide if it's Aloratom being scum or Aloratom being Aloratom.

So... you're not on board with my logic that there was no way votato would defend Freddie that way as scum? Why not?

What part of what I said above indicates what you said below?

Why speculate on votato's rep if you agree votato is definitely town?

I don't make up my mind 100% about a slot based on a single interaction and then never assess that slot again.

Do you?

[Blair]

(Hint: Because he's scum)

[Blair]

Are you suggesting that a single interaction can't last ten pages?

More importantly, why fixate on that instead of addressing my actual point? (That nobody makes up their mind about a slot once and then stops examining them)

[Blair]

Except I only moved my vote back to Gibus because Tuxedo immediately voted for Gibus (like I said I would if someone did).

Unless you think I'm scum with Tuxedo (what a weird gambit, btw), how did I arrange that?

And if I'm scum with Tuxedo, why would I care if Dunn was lynched? Believe me, if I'm scum, I am not afraid to drive a lynch.

[Blair]

So yes, or no?

Do you form such strong reads on players that you stop assessing their slots anymore? And if yes, why did you assume I would do the sMe?

[Blair]

*same

[Blair]

It was unlikely. I'd been trying to get all of you to vote Gibus for days.

[Blair]

So yes, or no?

Do you form such strong reads on players that you stop assessing their slots anymore? And if yes, why did you assume I would do the sMe?

I at no point said or even speculated that you would do the same.

... Then what were you implying here:

Aloratom has felt somewhat "off" since I subbed in, but I need consultation because I can't decide if it's Aloratom being scum or Aloratom being Aloratom.

So... you're not on board with my logic that there was no way votato would defend Freddie that way as scum? Why not?

[Blair]

So yes, or no?

Do you form such strong reads on players that you stop assessing their slots anymore? And if yes, why did you assume I would do the sMe?

I at no point said or even speculated that you would do the same.

... Then what were you implying here:

Aloratom has felt somewhat "off" since I subbed in, but I need consultation because I can't decide if it's Aloratom being scum or Aloratom being Aloratom.

So... you're not on board with my logic that there was no way votato would defend Freddie that way as scum? Why not?

I was asking if you

disagreed

with my read of votato that's based on "a single interaction."

Ah, okay then.

I don't disagree with it, but I do disagree with the strength of the read you gathered from it, evidently.

(Also, I'm laughing too hard at your response to Gibus - send help)

[Blair]

Having no wagon on her scumread is not an excuse to vote for her null read.

With 24 hours to deadline?

In that scenario I will always accept a lynch on a null read if I can't get my scumreads lynched. Lynching null reads helps narrow my PoE.

[Blair]

Goddamn, Gibus. Like right after being accused of scummily cutting out the context of Blair's post to shade her, did you just cut out the context of her post where she accused you of cutting out the context of her post?

Sig material, tbh.

[Blair]

Are quote mining and blatant misrepresentation scummy to you?

[Blair]

Read 1898 and then read 1918.

[Blair]

Guys, if we're going to do this right we need to leave enough time for a claim before a hammer.

We have 12 hours until deadline.

[Blair]

I don't usually game theory this kind of thing, but I feel like the logical route here is for TPR to claim only if they have successfully detected scum

^ This is the correct play.

If you have caught scum, you should claim. If you have cleared town, find a way to crumb it in case you're killed.

Massclaiming in MyLo doesn't make sense. No Lynch is basically a foregone conclusion, so all you're doing is giving the Mafia more information to shop for their best LyLo tomorrow.

That said, if we were going to lynch anyone today, I am 100% sheeping Nauci's Dunnstral push. He deliberately shut down a forthcoming claim with a premature hammer. Don't let the fact that Gibus flipped VT distract you from what could have happened there.

[Blair]

Don't forget I *explicitly* pushed for us to expedite the wagon *so there would be time to claim.*

So Gibus gets run up to L-1, asks if he should claim, and

Dunnstral quickhammers.

[Blair]

I'm waiting for Dunnstral to mount a vigorous defense.

I'm more inclined to no lynch, for sure. He's welcome to incriminate himself and his partner further, though.

[Blair]

I feel better about Aloratom but mostly because I feel so strongly about Dunnstral.

Also, A+ to you Nauci if this is a deep bus.

[Blair]

I feel better about Aloratom but mostly because I feel so strongly about Dunnstral.

Also, A+ to you Nauci if this is a deep bus.

Then why do you still not want to lynch today

We have no mislynches left. I would like our next lynch to be as well-informed as possible. One more night phase gives any Town PRs we have one more night to gather information. If we're lucky, they either catch scum or clear enough townies to solve in LyLo.

I prefer to win by day play but it would be unwise to forego the opportunity for PRs to solve.

[Blair]

VOTE: Dunnstral

I'm a VT genius. Read the thread next time before you fake claim.

[Blair]

(If there is, in fact, a Jailkeeper, do not claim)

[Blair]

You guys are free to debate it amongst yourselves, but there is no scenario in which I unvote Dunnstral here. He "tracked" a VT.

[Blair]

I'll also point out, for your speculative needs, that I am well aware the winning move as scum here would have been to claim Jailkeeper.

I didn't. Because I'm not. This would be an unforced error if I were scum.

[Blair]

Because he is suggesting we are in setup A2, and trying to appear internally consistent.

[Blair]

Scum!Blair would claim Jailkeeper to either a) lynch you or b) out the real Jailkeeper.

The odds of lynching you are the same either way, but with the added benefit of outing all power roles.

[Blair]

(specifically, I would claim Jailkeeper but say your track was wrong - it's more fun for me that way)

[Blair]

The entire premise of your claim was predicated on a lie, as well. Nauci was the only one aiming to lynch you today. I was explicitly supporting a no lynch.

Why would Town!Dunnstral claim here?

[Blair]

And let's not forget that freddie claimed vt. So no, you'd never be able to claim jailkeeper.

If you honestly believe scum can't play their way out of that...

You're essentially claiming a guilty on me. Every fiber of my being wants to counterclaim as scum. I grew up on EpicMafia.

[Blair]

This entire phase hinges on whether or not people believe your claim. Full stop. No matter what I claim.

Claiming a power role would allow me to out the other power role. I'm not one of those "I only win if I survive to endgame" types, I'm a team player. That would be the winning move here.

I have to be a team player. This account has never survived to endgame. Won't this time either, because I'll be cleared and therefore dead when you flip scum.

[Blair]

No, Nauci, I'm town because Dunnstral tracked a VT.

I'm just pointing out, in addition to that, there is no scenario in which scum!Blair doesn't try to take another PR down with me here.

[Blair]

Notice something really important, by the way:

In Dunnstral's claim, he leaves the door open for me to possibly be the Jailkeeper - even though he is now arguing that there is a 0% chance that anyone would ever believe that (wouldn't that implicitly include him?)

He was hedging his bets just in case I really was.

[Blair]

Scum pair is Dunnstral and Battle Mage, they came into MYLO with an agenda they are pushing hard. Do not lynch Blair. If isn't Battle Mage it's Alortom.

If you believe scum came into MYLO with an agenda for this exact scenario... wouldn't it make sense for Nauci to be a potential partner, too?

It's like the whole thing was scripted. Dunn comes in crying about how we're about to lynch him when only Nauci was suggesting that. Almost like the plan was for her to hard bus him out the gate so he could claim "under pressure." They either win by mislynching me today or Nauci wins by virtue of their hard distancing in the next phase.

[Blair]

^ This is an important post. Please read it.

[Blair]

Fair, that might be the cleaner play.

I would think they would want to out power roles and hard distance for LyLo. Depends on the players involved, though.

[Blair]

I could see the case for Dunn/BM I guess. It is conspicuous how he suddenly moved me way up to #2 on his mass claim list. Dunn was around as well, and scum have daychat, so they may have been strategizing.

The fact that Dunn outright states he was gunning for me to claim before him and BM had already moved me up the list is interesting.

[Blair]

Dunn, you mentioned your breadcrumbs.

Feel free to share those anytime.

[Blair]

We don't want scum to know who the conf towns are before LyLo, they'll use that information to craft LyLo to their advantage.

Why put all that information in the thread before we're ready to use it?

At this point we should probably

not

No Lynch, however, because we now know we have caught scum between Dunnstral and myself. Our odds of getting it right are higher when there are more living townies.

[Blair]

(Obviously, if you are a PR and you have information that clarifies the 1v1 between Dunnstral and myself, you should present it)

[Blair]

Reminder that once again Dunn isn't showing us the breadcrumbs.

Still trying to cobble them together?

[Blair]

Nauci and Dunnstral will be tired of Blair Math™ from our last game together but I can break down why lynching today is ideal now that we have a guaranteed 1v1 if you are actually going to try to argue that my saying so is somehow scummy.

[Blair]

(Notice how I am also the only one inviting other PRs to speak up if they have any information that can clear either of us in this 1v1 - too risky for Dunnstral to ask for the same)

[Blair]

[Blair]

About what happened with Gibus: he was pretty obviously not the jailkeeper and I didn't want to give him the opportunity to claim pr before being lynched (because that would mean he's scum and I'd need to lynch him anyway, outting my own role in the process)

This deserves attention as well.

How was it so obvious to you that Gibus was not a PR that you needed to quickhammer him before he could claim?

(Note: That's not editorializing, that is his exact defense)

[Blair]

Or he's a newbie in his second game on the site who doesn't understand the (needlessly complicated) semi-open setup.

I'm not saying that's definitely true. I am saying you definitely would have considered that possibility.

[Blair]

Players routinely misunderstood the mutual exclusivity of role combinations in Newbies. I think you probably know that.

[Blair]

If you believed that was such a strong argument that he was basically claiming VT in post 234, then why are you lying about being afraid that you'd have to claim to get him lynched if he claimed a PR?

[Blair]

(Or course it's all a joke anyway - Dunnstral was right there when Gibus asked if he should claim. If he was that worried about it he could have let him claim and then hammered right after if he claimed a PR - nobody is buying that you were afraid you'd have to out yourself if he was allowed to claim)

[Blair]

Tracking isn't "caught scum." You yourself admitted I could be JK and you would unvote if I was.

Who's reaching now?

[Blair]

I don't remember there being pressure on me. One, maybe two people angled suspicion toward me?

I wanted him to claim at L-1. You didn't. You tell me who looks worse for that.

[Blair]

...! This doesn't make sense for her to think as town

It's almost as if I was *gasp* viewing it from your perspective!

You know, like I very plainly was.

[Blair]

Note: If there is a Cop or Mason present, you know Dunnstral is lying.

[Blair]

...! This doesn't make sense for her to think as town

It's almost as if I was *gasp* viewing it from your perspective!

You know, like I very plainly was.

Why would you be considering my town point of view if you insist that I must be lying because you're counterclaiming me?

Because it's part of my job as town to get *other people* to vote for you, too. Which is why it was important to demonstrate that town!Dunnstral wouldn't make sense here.

This interpretation was extremely obvious, you're being deliberately obtuse.

[Blair]

Note: If there is a Cop or Mason present, you know Dunnstral is lying.

Friendly Neighbor also knows he's lying. (Because if you're a Friendly Neighbor then there must also be a Jailkeeper due to N1)

The only setup where Dunnstral isn't confirmed scum is C2. In every other instance, someone knows 100% that he's lying.

So don't let a lynch go through until every single player has responded to Dunnstral's claim with whether the believe it or not.

[Blair]

You'd still be confirmed scum to me, silly, but there isn't a power role in that setup that can know for sure that you're lying.

[Blair]

In every other setup there is either a real tracker who is about to counterclaim you or a role that can't exist with tracker.

[Blair]

Dunnstral has reached for low hanging fruit in my posts repeatedly on this page, by the way. He's deliberately misinterpreting my posts. Take note!

[Blair]

I'm not going to get counterclaimed.

I'm pretty sure we are not in C2 so enjoy sweating this one out.

[Blair]

(Well, actually, we could be in C2 and if we are scum knows we are because it's the only Goon/Goon setup where N1 makes any sense)

Smart claim if that's the case. *tips hat*

[Blair]

Now that I'm realizing that, this is interesting:

My slot targeted Formerfish night 1 - Received no result (implying a roleblocker or jailkeeper -> there has to be a jailkeeper because someone stopped a kill and it wasn't me)

It never occurred to Dunnstral that there could be a Doctor in the setup, because it never occurred to him that we could be in B3.

Because he's known we weren't in that column since Day 2.

[Blair]

Well, Day 1 actually.

He's known we were in C2 since Day 2.

[Blair]

Genuine scumslips are so rare nowadays - this is exciting!

[Blair]

There is a jailkeeper soft in thread that aligns with my current reads.

It's fascinating how you bring this up now, when I've proven you knew more than you should about the setup.

Especially since I asked you just a few posts ago how you were *sure* Gibus wasn't the Jailkeeper and you didn't mention this at all.

[Blair]

@Nauci I notoriously hate this Newbie setup (I say as much every time it comes up) and I very publicly fumbled the setup analysis in that game you referenced. (Although my Day 1 wagon analysis was 100% accurate!)

So yes, you really did just witness me assessing the setup and trying to suss out which sub-setup we're in. I'm actually pretty proud of the fact that I was able to identify it based off of one fake claim with no flipped PRs.

As for your point that Dunn would know (if he weren't lying scum) about the Jailkeeper due to receiving no result, I guess so but scum could have no killed so you don't technically know that in that scenario.

More importantly, I think it's worth mentioning here that A) I was not operating from the mindset of actually believing Dunnstral in the first place and B) Dunnstral didn't even use this super obvious explanation himself when responding to that very question.

[Blair]

I'm thrilled you're on board with lynching Dunnstral today though so I won't bicker with you too much about it.

[Blair]

My slot targeted Formerfish night 1 - Received no result

Important note: Dunnstral is claiming he was jailed N1.

Formerfish was probably his kill target. He carried out the kill, so he knows either himself or his target were jailed. He only has a 50% chance of getting this aspect of his claim confirmed by the Jailkeeper, however, because if Formerfish was jailed a Tracker would have still received a result on him.

[Blair]

He's claiming I visited Aloratom (whom he believes is the Jailkeeper) so that no matter who was jailed N2 it can't break his claim (because Roleblocker resolves first).

Dunnstral is relying pretty heavily on the argument that I am scum and know who the Jailkeeper is.

So scum!Blair or scum!Dunnstral has found the Jailkeeper.

Now ask yourself: Why isn't the Jailkeeper dead? Scum!Blair gains nothing from keeping the Jailkeeper alive. Scum!Dunnstral on the other hand, can keep the Jailkeeper alive in order to corroborate his fake claim ("Wow, I am the Jailkeeper and I target Dunnstral N1 - that explains why he got no result!")

If I'm scum then I know that not killing the Jailkeeper leaves me facing two town power roles today. Sure I could roleblock one of them continuously but that's still two named townies in endgame.

Dunnstral is arguing that scum know who the Jailkeeper is. He's probably right (he knows who the Jailkeeper is) but out of the two of us, he's the only one with a conceivable scum motive to leave them alive.

[Blair]

My slot targeted Formerfish night 1 - Received no result

Important note: Dunnstral is claiming he was jailed N1.

Formerfish was probably his kill target. He carried out the kill, so he knows either himself or his target were jailed. He only has a 50% chance of getting this aspect of his claim confirmed by the Jailkeeper, however, because if Formerfish was jailed a Tracker would have still received a result on him.

Or Fish tried to preform the kill, and shared the no result with their partner. Who is that again?

If the Jailkeeper jailed Fish N1, then Dunnstral is caught in a lie, since he is claiming his investigation of Formerfish failed that night.

[Blair]

My slot targeted Formerfish night 1 - Received no result

Important note: Dunnstral is claiming he was jailed N1.

Formerfish was probably his kill target. He carried out the kill, so he knows either himself or his target were jailed. He only has a 50% chance of getting this aspect of his claim confirmed by the Jailkeeper, however, because if Formerfish was jailed a Tracker would have still received a result on him.

Or Fish tried to preform the kill, and shared the no result with their partner. Who is that again?

If the Jailkeeper jailed Fish N1, then Dunnstral is caught in a lie, since he is claiming his investigation of Formerfish failed that night.

Wouldn't it?

Being jailed doesn't stop you from being investigated. If FormerFish was jailed and someone tracked him, the result would be "FormerFish did not visit anyone" not "You received no result."

[Blair]

The fact that you're misrepresenting that potential role interaction is making me scumread you a little bit.

Don't make me scumread you a little bit.

[Blair]

Aloratom, there's kind of a lot hinging on you telling us if scum!Dunnstral guessed your role and actions correctly.

Feel free to weigh in anytime.

[Blair]

(Ironically, if Dunn got it wrong and his fake claim is exposed, Nauci will just tunnel harder on this being a double bus)

[Blair]

If JK and Tracke target the same person they get no result.

Here is the role description for NewD3, https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=NewD3

You may target one player per night phase. This player will be protected from kills and be prevented from using their own action, if they have one, during that night phase. You cannot target yourself.[/url]

It protects from kills and prevents you from using your night action. That's it.

[Blair]

Wow, I BUTCHERED that link.

Per the wiki.

[Blair]

I also butchered the quote:

You may target one player per night phase. This player will be protected from kills and be prevented from using their own action, if they have one, during that night phase. You cannot target yourself.

Let's just pretend that post never happened.

[Blair]

Point being, there is no reason to believe, based on the NewD3 Jailkeeper role pm, that the Jailkeeper commutes its target.

[Blair]

The fact that Dunn outright states he was gunning for me to claim before him and BM had already moved me up the list is interesting.

Interesting how? Isn't that NAI? Like, if Dunn isn't lying, that's exactly the order he'd want to catch you in a lie? A maneuver that you yourself are absolutely expert at? And BM would do that as scum but would also do that as town who scumreads you?

You're misinterpreting me here (check the context).

I wasn't suggesting that the correlation made Dunnstral more likely to be scum (I already know Dunnstral is scum, he cannot be more than 100% likely from my perspective). I was suggesting that Battle Mage was more likely to be his partner, since Battle Mage reorganized his preferred claim order to move me from near the bottom to second-from-the-top

before

Dunnstral claimed and made it clear that I should claim next. I'm suggesting it appears coordinated.

[Blair]

Would you like to link me to instances where you say that?

Where I say what? That I hate this newbie setup?

[Blair]

Now that we have a 1v1 between Dunnstral and myself we should be lynching today while town controls a greater share of the votes than we will after one more townie is killed.

Since it is optimal to lynch today, it is now optimal to mass claim.

So you should be happy. Instead you're voting to no lynch.

[Blair]

Or instances where you fumbled the setup analysis because I just can't see you doing that as town

The very Newbie you referenced earlier:

How embarrassing, it appears I have fatally misunderstood the setup.

Thst still leaves the question "What is the point of this line of questioning?"

[Blair]

Or instances where you fumbled the setup analysis because I just can't see you doing that as town

The very Newbie you referenced earlier:

How embarrassing, it appears I have fatally misunderstood the setup.

Thst still leaves the question "What is the point of this line of questioning?"

Feel free to ignore the part of that game where Quick subbed in, announced I was obv town, then hammered me for being too sassy.

[Blair]

Would you like to link me to instances where you say that?

Where I say what? That I hate this newbie setup?

Yeah

This is pretty recent as well:

I'm still a hard sell on "since mafiascum is 80% closed setups and 20% open setups, the right answer is to present newbies with an open setup in the top tenth of open setup complexity to get them ready."

This is why I miss 2of4.

Simple roles, easy to understand, nothing ever happens in 2of4 that makes you scratch your head and click back over to the setup description to figure out what's going on.

(I'm ostensibly not a newbie and I consistently find myself referring back to the setup description in utter confusion, as Skitter can attest to when she scumread me in our last game for misunderstanding the setup )

[Blair]

oh and by the way Blair - once we've massclaimed, I'm still probably no-lynching today. Just FYI.

This is the part where you lose me.

What is the purpose of the mass claim today if we aren't acting on the information until tomorrow? The only players who can act on the information today if we no lynch are scum, who can use it to select night actions leading into LyLo.

[Blair]

It all makes sense now.

Stick a fork in this game, folks - it's done!

[Blair]

Oof. Jailkeeper has to decide between roleblocking Blair or her unknown partner tonight.

Actually Blair is a roleblocker so there will be no jailkeeper games. And her partner is known - it's one of Nauci/Tuxedo Mask

Aloratom... you're not helping by trying to hide your role anymore man

You forgot for a second there, didn't you?

[Blair]

(Hint: There is no Roleblocker)

[Blair]

I know.

But if the Tracker's TARGET is jailed, they do not receive "No Result."

This is explicitly outlined in the "Normal" variant of Jailkeeper on the wiki.

[Blair]

Pretty sure it's because he doesn't want to bus in MYLO.

[Blair]

-I was roleblocked night 1
-Somebody else was protected night 1

How would town!Dunnstral know that he wasn't the one who was protected Night 1?

[Blair]

Except he's speculating that Aloratom is the jailer, and that he jailed Blair on Night 1, so she could not have blocked him, and neither could Aloratom. This scenario is impossible if he saw Blair visit Aloratom last night OR if he received No Result on Night 1, so why would he be speculating about that at all if his claim was real?

I will point out that he could also be speculating that he was roleblocked and the Jailkeeper jailed the nightkill target, a circumstance you appear to have factored out for some reason.

[Blair]

I still oppose a mass claim. I have yet to see from anyone the logic behind doing so.

The logic:

1. Everyone knows 100% there is scum between Blair/Dunnstral

2. This means town has a 50% shot at nailing scum by lynching between those two players. Waiting until tomorrow does not improve those odds.

3. Lynching between those two players today means that the non-Blair/Dunn players (i.e. the players deciding the lynch, since Dunn and I are voting each other) are 75% town. If we wait until tomorrow, the players deciding the lynch are only 67% town.

4. The more townies we have deciding this lynch, the better.

5. We have no mislynches left, so we need to make this count.

[Blair]

Because it is optimal to lynch today, we should put all info on the table.

[Blair]

Did he say I was jailed? I missed that. If he did, my apologies.

[Blair]

Oh, you mean the softclaim he said Aloratom made?

[Blair]

I'll just leave you with this.

Mafia Roleblocker

action takes precedence over a

Town Jailkeeper

action should that apply.

"Should that apply."

Nauci is actually right. Natural Action Resolution, and all other forms of night action order resolution, only apply in situations where two roles target each other or otherwise conflict.

So Roleblocker would resolve before Jailkeeper

if the Roleblocker and Jailkeeper target each other.

Not every single time a Roleblocker is jailed.

Dunnstral is essentially suggesting that Roleblockers are

immune

to Jailkeepers (because their action would always resolve first, no matter who they target).

I'm about 99% positive Roleblockers are not immune to Jailkeepers, so Dunnstral is lying here.

Nicely caught, Nauci.

[Blair]

Dunnstral claims to believe that Aloratom is the Jailkeeper, crumbled that they jailed Blair, and Blair roleblocked him, causing him to receive no result Night 1.

This is impossible.

Dunnstral claims it is possible because whenever the two roles conflict, Roleblocker resolves first. But the two roles aren't conflicting unless we target each other, which he is claiming did not occur.

[Blair]

Please repeat without using pronouns.

Dunnstral believes that Aloratom is the Jailkeeper

Dunnstral believes Aloratom jailed Blair Night 1

Dunnstral claims Blair is the Roleblocker

Dunnstral claims he received no result Night 1

If the Roleblocker was jailed, and Dunnstral wasn't tracking the Roleblocker, he should have received a result.

[Blair]

(Actually, even if he was tracking the Roleblocker, Dunnstral would receive a result because jailing doesn't block investigations)

[Blair]

The follow up to that is: If Dunnstral were telling the truth, really was the Tracker, and really did receive "No Result" on Night 1, Dunnstral never would have believed that the Jailkeeper targeted the Rolecop, because he would know that was impossible.

[Blair]

Again, Dunn, speaking from your theoretical perspective.

Again with the most predictable low hanging fruit.

[Blair]

This really is the crux of the matter, and the main piece of evidence Dunnstral should be addressing:

The follow up to that is: If Dunnstral were telling the truth, really was the Tracker, and really did receive "No Result" on Night 1, Dunnstral never would have believed that the Jailkeeper targeted the Rolecop, because he would know that was impossible.

[Blair]

OK, so obviously I misinterpreted what the jailkeeper was doing, because that makes no sense

It doesn't actually matter if it was true or not (it wasn't, as even you attest now)

What matters is that you claimed you believed it was true while simultaneously claiming you received no result that night.

No one who received No Result would believe that.

[Blair]

The question everyone needs to ask themselves is:

How could Dunnstral believe we were in A2 (Tracker/Jailkeeper/Roleblocker) and that the Roleblocker was jailed on Night 1, at the same time, when he allegedly received "No Result" on Night 1?

Tracker Dunnstral cannot receive "No Result" unless either the Roleblocker or the Jailkeeper targeted Dunnstral - yet he seriously entertained the idea that neither of those things occurred

for the entirety of this phase up until this moment!

Do you really believe that Dunnstral, who is ostensibly not a new player at all, was genuinely under the impression that Roleblockers are immune to Jailkeepers? Because that is the only conceivable justification and it's... pretty hard to swallow.

[Blair]

scum!Blair would love a no lynch right now.

Go ahead, explain why she wouldn't. Explain why scum!Blair has to lynch you today instead of tomorrow.

Nauci dim the lights, Tux grab the popcorn.

[Blair]

It was a sort of tongue in cheek dig.

I... am not always a nice person.

[Blair]

Note as well:

From Dunnstral's perspective, he has, supposedly "caught scum" yet he is not voting for his caught scum. He is voting to no lynch.

Explain why town!Dunnstral thinks lynching me will be easier tomorrow. Is he waiting for an investigative result to further prove my guilt? He claims he already has one, and a Jailkeeper can't clear or condemn anyone anyway.

[Blair]

Saying it again =/= Explaining it

[Blair]

Best panada yet tbh

[Blair]

At least you're labeling them now.

[Blair]

dunnstral claimed tracker with no counterclaim? and he's at -1 in lylo? is that right....

Reducing this situation down to that?

Found the partner. Game solved.

[Blair]

Seriously, everything about today reads Dunnstral and Blair as both being scum. Nearly every post Blair makes, makes it seems like the most transparent bus ever. It actually makes me cringe to read.

HOWEVER - Tux hasn't claimed, although he has hinted at having some relevant info about the Dunnstral claim, so I don't know what to make of that.

Likewise, in theory, Nauci and Aloratom could still be scum with Dunnstral (although presumably Aloratom is town if Dunnstral is town). Aloratom is the easiest townread really.

A massclaim would have busted this game open. The only reason I'm not hammering Dunnstral is because it's a reckless play and as I'm not 100% sure he's scum, there is no need to. We need to find 2 scum anyway, so no merit whatsoever in holding back on claims today.

UNVOTE:

Aloratom - please come in here, talk some sense and help a brother out.

He's "not 100% sure" Dunnstral is scum. Even though Dunnstral is scum in all three of the scenarios he gave in this very post. (1: Dunnstral & Blair are cross-bussing 2: Tux has a claim that incriminates Dunnstral 3: Nauci or Aloratom are scum with Dunnstral)

This is transparent scum setting himself up for all options after his partner flips.

[Blair]

I had two scumreads right out the gate when I joined this game. Glad one of them was right.

Sorry, Gibus.

[Blair]

Dunnstral has the most convenient fake claim imaginable, crafted entirely from information scum would have already had. He also speculated openly about night actions that he would have already known were impossible according to the details of his own claim.

That's the part you forgot.

[Blair]

Blair, you've been trying to subtly set me up as tomorrow's mislynch for like 4 pages now

Notice here how he knows there will be a "tomorrow" after Dunnstral's lynch.

Turns out he was sure about Dunnstral after all. Who knew?

[Blair]

because you know you need a mislynch tomorrow to justify bussing your partner today.

Here you are again knowing Dunnstral is scum.

Yet you keep claiming you're undecided.

Go ahead. Help me "bus my partner." We can deal with the next step after.

[Blair]

Then vote for him.

Feel free to expound upon the many convincing reasons why Dunnstral and I would cross bus today, by the way. I'll wait.

[Blair]

(Do note, by the way, that he just admitted he was lying the two separate times he has said he wasn't sure about Dunn in the last handful of posts)

[Blair]

And in fact, even you've said you're not 100% sure

I eagerly await this quote.

[Blair]

You know, since it will accompanied by about a dozen times that I have, in fact, stated I am 100% sure Dunnstral is scum.

You know, because he claimed he tracked me to Aloratom. When I am a VT.

Read the thread next time.

[Blair]

Just a few of the many posts in which I have indicated I am sure Dunnstral is scum:

Spoiler:

OK, so obviously I misinterpreted what the jailkeeper was doing, because that makes no sense

It doesn't actually matter if it was true or not (it wasn't, as even you attest now)

What matters is that you claimed you believed it was true while simultaneously claiming you received no result that night.

No one who received No Result would believe that.

The follow up to that is: If Dunnstral were telling the truth, really was the Tracker, and really did receive "No Result" on Night 1, Dunnstral never would have believed that the Jailkeeper targeted the Rolecop, because he would know that was impossible.

Dunnstral claims to believe that Aloratom is the Jailkeeper, crumbled that they jailed Blair, and Blair roleblocked him, causing him to receive no result Night 1.

This is impossible.

Dunnstral claims it is possible because whenever the two roles conflict, Roleblocker resolves first. But the two roles aren't conflicting unless we target each other, which he is claiming did not occur.

I'll just leave you with this.

Mafia Roleblocker

action takes precedence over a

Town Jailkeeper

action should that apply.

"Should that apply."

Nauci is actually right. Natural Action Resolution, and all other forms of night action order resolution, only apply in situations where two roles target each other or otherwise conflict.

So Roleblocker would resolve before Jailkeeper

if the Roleblocker and Jailkeeper target each other.

Not every single time a Roleblocker is jailed.

Dunnstral is essentially suggesting that Roleblockers are

immune

to Jailkeepers (because their action would always resolve first, no matter who they target).

I'm about 99% positive Roleblockers are not immune to Jailkeepers, so Dunnstral is lying here.

Nicely caught, Nauci.

I still oppose a mass claim. I have yet to see from anyone the logic behind doing so.

The logic:

1. Everyone knows 100% there is scum between Blair/Dunnstral

2. This means town has a 50% shot at nailing scum by lynching between those two players. Waiting until tomorrow does not improve those odds.

3. Lynching between those two players today means that the non-Blair/Dunn players (i.e. the players deciding the lynch, since Dunn and I are voting each other) are 75% town. If we wait until tomorrow, the players deciding the lynch are only 67% town.

4. The more townies we have deciding this lynch, the better.

5. We have no mislynches left, so we need to make this count.

The fact that Dunn outright states he was gunning for me to claim before him and BM had already moved me up the list is interesting.

Interesting how? Isn't that NAI? Like, if Dunn isn't lying, that's exactly the order he'd want to catch you in a lie? A maneuver that you yourself are absolutely expert at? And BM would do that as scum but would also do that as town who scumreads you?

You're misinterpreting me here (check the context).

I wasn't suggesting that the correlation made Dunnstral more likely to be scum (I already know Dunnstral is scum, he cannot be more than 100% likely from my perspective). I was suggesting that Battle Mage was more likely to be his partner, since Battle Mage reorganized his preferred claim order to move me from near the bottom to second-from-the-top

before

Dunnstral claimed and made it clear that I should claim next. I'm suggesting it appears coordinated.

@Nauci I notoriously hate this Newbie setup (I say as much every time it comes up) and I very publicly fumbled the setup analysis in that game you referenced. (Although my Day 1 wagon analysis was 100% accurate!)

So yes, you really did just witness me assessing the setup and trying to suss out which sub-setup we're in. I'm actually pretty proud of the fact that I was able to identify it based off of one fake claim with no flipped PRs.

As for your point that Dunn would know (if he weren't lying scum) about the Jailkeeper due to receiving no result, I guess so but scum could have no killed so you don't technically know that in that scenario.

More importantly, I think it's worth mentioning here that A) I was not operating from the mindset of actually believing Dunnstral in the first place and B) Dunnstral didn't even use this super obvious explanation himself when responding to that very question.

Genuine scumslips are so rare nowadays - this is exciting!

Now that I'm realizing that, this is interesting:

My slot targeted Formerfish night 1 - Received no result (implying a roleblocker or jailkeeper -> there has to be a jailkeeper because someone stopped a kill and it wasn't me)

It never occurred to Dunnstral that there could be a Doctor in the setup, because it never occurred to him that we could be in B3.

Because he's known we weren't in that column since Day 2.

You'd still be confirmed scum to me, silly, but there isn't a power role in that setup that can know for sure that you're lying.

No, Nauci, I'm town because Dunnstral tracked a VT.

I'm just pointing out, in addition to that, there is no scenario in which scum!Blair doesn't try to take another PR down with me here.

VOTE: Dunnstral

I'm a VT genius. Read the thread next time before you fake claim.

[Blair]

You forgot this again, by the way:

Feel free to expound upon the many convincing reasons why Dunnstral and I would cross bus today, by the way. I'll wait.

[Blair]

(Hint: He doesn't have any, he's just trying to manipulate Nauci's paranoia, since she speculated about this first)

[Blair]

We should probably no lynch, right?

The answer is... it depends.

If we lynch today:

3 Townies
1 Scum

Pros:

Scum can't quickhammer and win the game as soon as one Townie votes for another Townie. Two Townies have to vote wrong (together) for Scum to quickhammer and win.

Cons:

Each Townie has three potential suspects, meaning a random vote has only a 33% chance of hitting scum.

If we No Lynch today and lynch tomorrow:

2 Townies
1 Scum

Pros:

Each Townie has only two potential suspects, meaning a random vote has a 50% chance of hitting scum.

Cons:

Scum can quickhammer and win as soon as just one Townie votes for another Townie.

---

In my opinion, we should mass claim today and then decide.

Why? Because the cons of lynching today only apply if we are voting "randomly." If the mass claim gives us enough information to lynch non-randomly, then we should lynch today, while we have more townies and it is harder for scum to steal the win.

If the mass claim doesn't reveal anything to us and our lynch still feels effectively random, then we should no lynch and put it off until tomorrow, when our odds for a random scum lynch are better.

I've already claimed, so I nominate my top scumread to claim next:

Battle Mage

[Blair]

(I'll support everyone claiming as soon as the previous claim has nominated them, but let the record show my preferred claim order is: Battle Mage, Nauci, Tuxedo)

[Blair]

I eagerly await your explanation for why the only rational interpretation of the events in this game is that Dunnstral and I disastrously cross-bussed.

But first, let's finish the mass claim.

[Blair]

If Dunnstral and I were scum together, we had the opportunity to win the game yesterday if we could coordinate suspicion on to literally any townie.

So why would we initiate a 1v1 between ourselves so early in the phase when neither of us were under any real pressure? (Dunnstral had one person voting for him while most players seemed resigned to a no lynch)

I could see scum cross bussing near the end of the day after exhausting all other options, perhaps - but pretty much right out the gate? During what could have been a game-winning phase?

[Blair]

This is some more thinly-concealed Blair coaching towards Dunnstral. Obviously a bit of a fraught relationship there - Blair clearly irritated that she replaced in, only for her buddy to bus her at the earliest opportunity:

(Dunnstral should also weigh in soon with his actual opinion instead of continuing to frame this as a conversation between Gibus and myself)

The problem with this analysis is that Dunnstral was not voting for or scumreading me during this conversation. Which is unfortunate for your theory because Dunnstral "bussing" me there was the foundation of your argument.

If Dunnstral and I were scum together, we had the opportunity to win the game yesterday if we could coordinate suspicion on to literally any townie.

So why would we initiate a 1v1 between ourselves so early in the phase when neither of us were under any real pressure? (Dunnstral had one person voting for him while most players seemed resigned to a no lynch)

I could see scum cross bussing near the end of the day after exhausting all other options, perhaps - but pretty much right out the gate? During what could have been a game-winning phase?

Maybe it was a strategy! I think you believe you're a good enough player to pull something like that off. And Dunnstral had been bussing you since he joined anyway. And besides, it only really went down that way because Dunnstral claimed and it fell apart if I recall?

No, it "went down that way" (as a 1v1) because Dunnstral claimed a guilty on me. The 1v1 was cooked into the claim from the beginning, which means the 1v1 was cooked into the scum strategy from the beginning.

[Blair]

Retraction: Dunnstral was voting for me, actually. But he wasn't accusing me in that conversation, he was just disagreeing with my Gibus case. So why would I lash out at him for "bussing" me at that juncture?

[Blair]

Blair, you're not going to convince me this was some mastermind strategy nobody would ever see through. I think it was a half-baked strategy which was poorly executed.

I'm not going to convince you because you're scum.

You're accusing me of gamethrowing - if the scum team was Blair/Dunnstral we could have angled for a town lynch but instead chose to save ALL the townies by initiating a 1v1 at the beginning of the phase between ourselves?

I might try something like that in mid game, but not endgame. It's an unforced error.

[Blair]

dunnstral claimed tracker with no counterclaim? and he's at -1 in lylo? is that right....

This is one of the scummiest posts in this game, by the way.

He made this post as part of a three consecutive, uninterrupted posts that ended with him proclaiming both Dunnstral and I were scum.

[Blair]

Battle Mage, read the sentence immediately before the one you bolded. I'm describing the hypothetical gambit as an unforced error, not Dunnstral's claim. You're plainly arguing in bad faith.

[Blair]

2288, 2289, and 2290 are all yours.

Why try to save Dunnstral in 2288 and then call him scum in 2290?

[Blair]

2290 contains three theories, all of which include Dunnstral in their solves.

Yet you're theorizing that it's ridiculous to lynch him at the exact same time?

As for claiming yesterday, I explained exactly why I was against it, and then I immediately supported it after Dunnstral's claim (even as you continued claiming everyone was opposed to claiming).

Meanwhile, you never explained why your plan to massclaim and then no lynch was optimal, instead repeatedly referencing some Mith post from an unrelated game that you never actually pointed us to.

[Blair]

I won't pretend to not be disappointed. I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around that weird series of posts if you're town, but you are, so it is what it is.

So I was right the first time. Nauci pushing Dunnstral out the gate was setting Dunnstral up for his fake claim.

This is also why I wanted Nauci to claim first. Tuxedo was softing yesterday.

Sorry, Battle Mage. Even if Tuxedo were lying, you would still be town.

[Blair]

(Don't gloat too much, though, because you'll be climbing off your perch next)

[Blair]

Scum pair is Dunnstral and Battle Mage, they came into MYLO with an agenda they are pushing hard. Do not lynch Blair. If isn't Battle Mage it's Alortom.

If you believe scum came into MYLO with an agenda for this exact scenario... wouldn't it make sense for Nauci to be a potential partner, too?

It's like the whole thing was scripted. Dunn comes in crying about how we're about to lynch him when only Nauci was suggesting that. Almost like the plan was for her to hard bus him out the gate so he could claim "under pressure." They either win by mislynching me today or Nauci wins by virtue of their hard distancing in the next phase.

This is a ridiculous level of paranoia. I'm the only person who has been trying to get the Lilith/Dunn slot examined closely and/or lynched since the beginning of Day 2 while most people were letting it coast

I have no idea why he claimed so fucking early and I am extremely skeptical of it but like... literally YOU of all people know EXACTLY why I think the quickhammer meant he was basically confscum to me

Behold, the actual coaching:

I have no idea why he claimed so fucking early

[Blair]

I know you think I'm scum, but please read 2111 closely, because it's what actually happened.

And Nauci (2171) was not happy about it.

[Blair]

Agreed.

[Blair]

Was the NK just to narrow the POE on BM, or was the scum team (based on Dunn's actions) that convinced Votato's slot was a PR. Maybe we could find similar assumptions in Nauci and Blair's ISOs?

Here you go:

Are you claiming that you tracked Blair to Alortrom last night so they must be the roleblocker?

YES

Lets end this battle.

VOTE: Dunnstral

I was convinced by the above exchange that you were the PR, thus my very next post:

It all makes sense now.

Stick a fork in this game, folks - it's done!

So there's always WIFOM, but I definitely picked up your soft claim so if I'm scum and killed Aloratom, it wasn't because I thought they were the PR.

[Blair]

Well played, Nauci. VT was the smart claim there.

You'd rather 1v1 me than Tuxedo, because there is already a path for lynching me.

This phase will boil down to whether Battle Mage and Tuxedo believe that Nauci/Dunnstral fumbled the start of their MYLO gambit (see: 2111) or that Blair/Dunnstral decided to 1v1 from the beginning for no reason (and no, Nauci "never stopped calling for his head" did not constitute pressure when no one else wanted to lynch him that day prior to his claim).

VOTE: Nauci

Battle Mage is cleared and since Nauci didn't counterclaim, Tuxedo is also cleared. Another 1v1 for Blair today.

[Blair]

If you actually try to blame me in post game Battle Mage I'll be disappointed. Townies who blame each other for misreads are the worst (notice I apologized to you for calling it wrong).

Tuxedo thought Dunn/BM too, let's not pretend it was an unimaginable perspective.

P-edit: That's fair.

I'll do that if Tuxedo affirms for sure that that's happening and he won't try to pull any crazy 4D Chess moves.

[Blair]

(Guess Nauci should have counterclaimed, actually)

[Blair]

I'm happy with this game - I think my first endgame win as town! And only my 2nd town win total (the other was my only other replace-in game)!

I'm a terrible player to start with, but a good super-sub.

And my proud tradition of never surviving to endgame continues.

[Blair]

My interaction being... when he claimed a guilty on me and I hard tunneled him until he was lynched?

[Blair]

That's called partner hunting but okay, Battle Mage.

VOTE: Blair

Tuxedo, jail Nauci tonight.

Lynch Nauci tomorrow.

Good thing I signed up for a new game, I had a feeling.

[Blair]

I have never drawn scum, and I have never survived to endgame.

*sigh*

The journey continues.

[Blair]

(As Blair)

[Blair]

Promise me one thing?

Don't hammer Nauci too quickly tomorrow. I am really, really looking forward to her defense after she's cleared the two of you by claiming VT.

[Blair]

Props to Tuxedo for entering MYLO with a clear as Jailkeeper.

Would have been a lot less clean for town, though, if Nauci had counterclaimed - so she deserves some credit, too!

[Blair]

Nauci, where'd you go?

As a percentage, how confident are you that I will flip scum?

[Blair]

Aww, it's over?

I wasn't saying it in jest, Nauci - I really wanted to see you try to twist this today. (Your only real recourse would be to claim you were Cop, misunderstood the setup, and didn't want to out yourself in the mass claim because you believed we had already caught scum - a VERRRRRY tough sell but you never know if you don't try!)

You really needed to counterclaim Jailkeeper instead of VT, though.

[Blair]

I need more games with Nauci.