Micro 940: A Normal Blitz II - Game Over

[HoldenGolden]

Spoiler: Once upon a time

DEUS VULT

COMRADES! The flames of our righteous town cursade has been relit under the growing shadow of a new dark, sinful scum team! Last time we were successful in the elimination of

Bugsbespray

and the holy conversion of

Humaneatingmonkey

. Now, we must band together in order to stop evil once again! Maybe we can make it a bit more dramatic this time? My holy sacrifice last game got interrupted by you all's self-center and highly narcissistic lynching of HEM. If it was not against our heavenly lord, Mith, agenda I would personally SMITE each on of you for your actions.

But my angelic blood lust is showing isn't it? Bah, let me align the lenses of my supernatural reading glasses and see what we have here...acmh...

Datasni? Datnsani? Dasanai? Datsi!

Oh your face Datsi! Once I thought it afixed to your skull so well, but now I see it is nothing more than a mask. You have been coughing a lot of plem as well. Are you suffering from being cold in your soul? I know thou are cursed to be the leper king, but this is unnatural. It seems other's have caught on, no doubt trying to send you home to your leper colony.

Shiki!

Our noble scribe of the ancient tales of meta! Have though uncover any new secrets about our newest members. Do any reek of heretical knowledge?

Looking sexy as always me! Keep up gods work!

humaneatingmonkey

you better have successfully converted this time. Your entire existence is a cannibalistic abomination, so might as well do some good for once before I finally take you to back of the shed with my 22. Holy Shotgun

Madoka

I.....What was your role again in this? Ah thats right! The NAY sayer! It is always important to have someone say NAY! Do we spare the captives? Nay! Do we stop for the night? Nay! Does anyone want to talk to the better business Bureau about crusaders rights? Nay! Are you still being our Nay sayer?

And the man who was also right about HEM d1,

Hiraki!

You have my sacred decree to be as ruthless as possible in your "faith" evaluations on the rest of the party. If those around us arent being holy, I want to know.

GeorgeBailey

Our Coffee guy! I put up the first supply camp today as I constructed a goat pin. I would like a double expresso stat.

That leaves our two new comers. Honestly, Hoctac and Umlaut, you are going to have to prove your worth on my crusading team. Considering the last scum lords had an evil can of bug spray, logic implies that Umlaut isn't a scummy heretic. Therefore Hoctac, you are on the block!

VOTE: Hoctac

[HoldenGolden]

now bottoms up!
let's go round two!



VOTE: BeorgeGaily

Booze is against our decree! HERETIC!

not gonna lie i'm actually pretty sad about luca blight not playing. who am i supposed to sheep now lmao

its in your contract to sheep me

hard claiming masons with Umlaut

protect us pls

VOTE: Datisi

Ah, the little newcomers come as a duo!?

HAH

What an exciting development for sure

Oh yiiisssss rolled town this time baby

VOTE: HoldenGolden

Howdy

Thats exactly like what a HERETIC would say?

are you an heretic this game Monkey? I am going to get buddy again?

Datisi is looking center, so there's no way to know if he's Scum or not.

I can look center too!

See?

[HoldenGolden]

i can buy scum faking "tactlessness" to confirm a lolclaim

i dont know if george would specfically

not a guy of meta

So what's your conclusion on it monkey?

I don't see it really coming from scum!george there given how he did it.

[HoldenGolden]

you better have successfully converted this time.

trust me my guy. i rolled town this time

Hum.

No its HEM

Get your abbreviations right

[HoldenGolden]

Do have an issue with that post Hoctac?

[HoldenGolden]

Do have an issue with that post Hoctac?

I always get the heebie jeebies from posts like those.

In particular, quoting that part from Holden's shitpost to emphasise he's town.

That was top tier posting. You have failed the ass-kissing test.

Hem already explained it, but yeah, we rolled back to back where HEM was scum and that's what he is referring to. Do you make anything of the rest of his play so far?

[HoldenGolden]

not shiki

i opened it. will i get punished daddy?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Humaneatingmonkey

[HoldenGolden]

I don't see it really coming from scum!george there given how he did it.

i feel like i knew a different george than you guys so im waiting on shiki on this one. im gonna sheep her meta reads.

Oh I forgot to respond to this

Honestly I feel scum would either carry on with the joking to try and glean more info out of the situation or directly confront the lolclaim to figure out if it is true and get some traction going for scum. Georges posts just read more that he was confused about the situation given Ulmt's responses.

[HoldenGolden]

Spoiler:

not shiki

i opened it. will i get punished daddy?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Humaneatingmonkey

Did you vote me because I was a bad boy, or did you vote me because I was calling someone else daddy?

Yes

[HoldenGolden]

Hotter Take: someone TMI scumread someone TMI defending GeorgeBailey there

hot take: someone TMI defended GeorgeBailey there

Can both of you explain what lead you to this train of thought with the TMI specifically? What posts feed that?

[HoldenGolden]

@shiki; you think that might be a town-indicative thing? as in, he's actually just really happy to roll town this time

I actually sorta like this post

pedit @ HEM: That's a fair assumption. I don't have meta with george beyond the last blitz, but I think there is a difference between cautious and confused. Also it seemed some of your post got cut off

[HoldenGolden]

I have like no read on anyone.

Also why are we wagoning the person who isn't even here? Lurking is bad but complete absence isn't lurking.

Who said it had anything to do with lurking?

Aren't you the one voting for Hiraki after all lol?

[HoldenGolden]

1. That was RVS
2. Showing up and leaving is different from never showing up

But how is number 1 different? For all you know George and Monkey is RVS Madoka.
As for two:

Who said it had anything to do with lurking?

I mean when you vote someone with 0 posts a few pages in, I assume it's because they have 0 posts.

Can you not say the same thing for someone who dropped a vote and peaced? Is that not defined as lurking as well? I would even say it is more proper to say Hiraki is lurking than Madoka since Madoka could of just not woke up yet to play?

I'm puzzled on why you assumed that wagon was had logic behind it (lurker wagon) and not a RVS bandwagon considering all that was said was literally the votes.

[HoldenGolden]

I don't like this

VOTE: Datisi

Care to explain?

My mindreading abilities are limited by my crusading helm.

[HoldenGolden]

It seems the monkey was quicker than the donkey on this one.

In the interest of progress and as a runner up prize, I'll shall speak.

I think neither HEM/Datsi's votes are AI. Both can be explained by either PoV, and neither did anything to advance the wagon's pressure besides the vote.

Now you must answer HEM.

[HoldenGolden]

#125 was directed at Hoctac.

But okay I'll answer Hoctac.

I'm actually trying to get a read on Umlaut here and I think Datisi's vote helps with that. Nothing about it is strikingly AI.

126# was also directed at Hoctac. You are bad at question answer derby.

[HoldenGolden]

Whdkoe73hcndo247gj

HE IS HAVING A STROKE FROM BEING SUSPECTED

MEN GATHER THE LIFE BOATS. WE NEED TO GET HIM READY TO RIDE INTO HELL WITH STYLE!

[HoldenGolden]

1. That was RVS
2. Showing up and leaving is different from never showing up

But how is number 1 different? For all you know George and Monkey is RVS Madoka.

Then George and Monkey can say that.

@George, @Monkey

Are the Madoka votes for any kind of reason?

As for two:

Who said it had anything to do with lurking?

I mean when you vote someone with 0 posts a few pages in, I assume it's because they have 0 posts.

Can you not say the same thing for someone who dropped a vote and peaced? Is that not defined as lurking as well? I would even say it is more proper to say Hiraki is lurking than Madoka since Madoka could of just not woke up yet to play?

Yes, I do think it's more accurate to say Hiraki is lurking than Madoka, which is why I think voting him and keeping my vote their is productive since it might produce some kind of actual pressure while voting Madoka is just a null-op.

I'm puzzled on why you assumed that wagon was had logic behind it (lurker wagon) and not a RVS bandwagon considering all that was said was literally the votes.

I might just be assuming people play in the way I think is good play. If I move my vote it means I actually think the new one is better than the old for some reason, so unless someone is just joining the game I'm going to figure their vote is for some kind of reason even if it's not a very strong one.

pedit

oh my god Hoctac

but also yeah, that's true.

So really it boils down to you think town!play is to only move your vote in RVS if the move is more likely to be scum? Why not ask what their reason was then instead of inserting your own (Voting for lurking?)

[HoldenGolden]

1. That was RVS
2. Showing up and leaving is different from never showing up

But how is number 1 different? For all you know George and Monkey is RVS Madoka.

Then George and Monkey can say that.

@George, @Monkey

Are the Madoka votes for any kind of reason?

As for two:

Who said it had anything to do with lurking?

I mean when you vote someone with 0 posts a few pages in, I assume it's because they have 0 posts.

Can you not say the same thing for someone who dropped a vote and peaced? Is that not defined as lurking as well? I would even say it is more proper to say Hiraki is lurking than Madoka since Madoka could of just not woke up yet to play?

Yes, I do think it's more accurate to say Hiraki is lurking than Madoka, which is why I think voting him and keeping my vote their is productive since it might produce some kind of actual pressure while voting Madoka is just a null-op.

I'm puzzled on why you assumed that wagon was had logic behind it (lurker wagon) and not a RVS bandwagon considering all that was said was literally the votes.

I might just be assuming people play in the way I think is good play. If I move my vote it means I actually think the new one is better than the old for some reason, so unless someone is just joining the game I'm going to figure their vote is for some kind of reason even if it's not a very strong one.

pedit

oh my god Hoctac

but also yeah, that's true.

So really it boils down to you think town!play is to only move your vote in RVS if the move is more likely to be scum? Why not ask what their reason was then instead of inserting your own (Voting for lurking?)

You wanted to talk about something other than the Mason claim, so here I am. Why didn't you inquire about the reads directly if it violated your expectations of town!play and just inserted your own?

[HoldenGolden]

Look, I don't see any way out of this without pretending I have a townlean/read on Umlaut when I don't.

We're actually masons, and I didn't like Datisi creating momentum on the wagon because it could be a way to get us to claim or spew whether we're actually masons, or if it was a joke.

There

[I'm on phone so pretend the quote form Umlaut is here where he states he doesnt want to talk about the claim]
I had this thought waking up and since we apperently are discussing it, my brain must be working ahead of time.

My issue with the claim is its function so far in the thread: read mitigating. From what Hoctac implies in the first paragraph, he wanted to claim masons as a reaction test to see who investigates the claim further. This is fine. I dont think it's the best usage if a masonry if we are to believe the claim, but fine.

However, if that is the case like Shiki pointed out, I expect that Ulmat would not be as clueless as he portrays. I get faking it to entice scum to question to a certain point, but the degree that he has done so has comprised the reaction test. The multiple down right refusal to talk about it makes it so town has to talk about the claims; mudding the results of it. It honestly feels as there is a gap between their agendas due to the dysfunctional progression.

Coupled with the oddness of statements like having to townlean your Mason buddy (not true at all) is off from the logic it's a reaction test.

[HoldenGolden]

And if it is neighbors gambitting, then what's the goal?

Actually as I write this, this could make sense. They are neighbors and and Hoctac doesnt explain the reaction test to umlaut since doing so gives scum!umlaut time to explain the test to his scum buddy. So the confusion, disregarding how real we say it is, is because he is actually going off the rails and testing both the thread and umlaut?

That's the only thing I can see to explain it and it has holes in it.

[HoldenGolden]

But if that's the case, why did Ulmat not NUZZLESLAM Hoctac when he claimed Mason if they are neighbors? If they are neighbors, it should bother him that his neighbor is putting him in an auto town read due to not knowing each others alignment. But his protests are over the fact that they claimed and he doubled down and confirmed its masons.

I need booze.

[HoldenGolden]

Also

why are we wagoning the person who isn't even here?

Lurking is bad but complete absence isn't lurking.

You're right, instead of just asking why, I asked why and made a guess. Are you going somewhere with this?

I'll concede that you did technically ask. However, there is a big tonal shift between saying "Lurking is bad but complete absence isnt lurking" vs "Is it due to Lurking?"

The former preemptively calls the supposed logic bad throws discredit at the votes. The latter is a genuine question that isnt leading the reader to any AI assumptions.

[HoldenGolden]

I think Hiraki is currently a good place for pressure. I do not have any strong reads yet.

So pressure them?

[HoldenGolden]

I

think that's probably not alignment indicative. It seems to depend on his motivation.

During a round of Conspiracy, he was similar in tone.

From what I've observed, I think town!Datasi comes alive when he feels he has good insight.

That being said,

perhaps you may be onto something with the Umlaut vot

e. What did you not like about it. I presume he was voting Umlaut for the sake of making the wagons even?

?

Was this a way to gague Hoctac's read?

[HoldenGolden]

actually, that's a fair point. It looks natural but questioning it at all is a little tactless.

I'm not voting due to the questioning, I'm voting due to the response.

Vote: humaneatingmonkey

Come back to us, we miss you already.

I miss not explaining.

idk guys earlier i was thinking of bringing it up but then i thought "but then their reaction would probably confirm it and i dont want to confirm it if it wasnt a joke"
so im not resonating

This doesn't sound like a town line of logic and it feels rather forced given the prior posts before it.

@Hoctac why are you voting Hiraki?

townpings of varying degrees on everyone but shiki and Hiraki of people who have posted thus far

yikes

I have like no read on anyone.

Also why are we wagoning the person who isn't even here? Lurking is bad but complete absence isn't lurking.

This is what concerns me. I'm in a similar camp (although I really do SR HEM) but Hoctac's post above gives me worse feelings. You can really get a "town ping" from everyone? Already? You know who's missing from that list? Madoka.

I don't like this

VOTE: Datisi

Why is it that both of your pings have been people who have voted/switched votes? Are you just paranoid?

I shall play my answer a question with a question card:

What do you think of Datisi's naked vote of trying to wagon Umlaut?

Terrible rationale here.

I'll introduce a third party and interject a question of my own:
Why are you squeamish about Datisi's naked vote and not mine? Why are you squeamish about wagons forming on people you have no reads on?

Unless you have a read on Umlaut?

Wow, maybe I am wrong.

Yes, I do think it's more accurate to say Hiraki is lurking than Madoka, which is why I think voting him and keeping my vote their is productive since it might produce some kind of actual pressure while voting Madoka is just a null-op.

i do not think hiraki's lurking is alignment indicative in the same way that i do not think hoctac's claiming masons is alignment indicative. hiraki is likely treating his vote as an egopost and waiting for the game to develop, which is in line with his play as either alignment.

thank you

Are you prosing that the lack of townping by hoctac on Madoka is associated? If so, how?

[HoldenGolden]

HG how do you feel when i tell you that im not townreading you

Relieved. Would hate to find out you were scum trying to buddy me again.

Nice curious George joke btw

[HoldenGolden]

Shiki is HEM town?

[HoldenGolden]

I am changing my playstyle if that helps.

Where/how am I different to you?

[HoldenGolden]

Simply put: Aggression.

Both in the last blitz and the newbie for example I correctly pinned scum down for the right reasons (You and 3b respectively game wise) but end up not following through pushing them because I'm cautious or get side track.

[HoldenGolden]

George and Datnsi, what do you think about my proposed Neighbor gambit?

Pedit: that's a pretty big accusation monkey. But I admire your balls. Sadly I didnt roll scum.
Ppedit: oh I thought that was an obvious joke since you said we are using Shiki as our meta dictionary. I have my own read on you which is a townlean.
Pppedit: Because I have trouble picking up on it I am being buddy case in point the newbie where it took me till day 3 to even suspect it?

[HoldenGolden]

why are you relieved that im scum trying to buddy you instead of scum trying to shade you

Wait. Do you read 195 as a scum lean accusation?

[HoldenGolden]

I read 195 as faking paranoia over me.

How is that faking paranoia? Because I bring up an if statement where you are scum directly referencing our last game?

Saying someone isnt buddy =/= saying someone is shading. I dont understand that gap in logic.

[HoldenGolden]

UNVOTE: HEM

I forgot my vote was there

[HoldenGolden]

George and Datnsi, what do you think about my proposed Neighbor gambit?

not much? my current ~best bet~ is also that they're neighbors, but if i recall correctly they've been given one last chance to confirm if they're masons or not, so i'm kinda waiting on that.

It's more do you agree that hoctacs posting makes sense if it is some sort of reaction test.

I see holes in logic for if they are Mason/neighbors/ or scum

[HoldenGolden]

You said you're relieved as if you've decided I'm town just because I'm scumread you, as if you were suspicious that I'm scum, but that's the flimsiest reason to decide I'm town there.

But you said I'm a townlean. Why am I a townlean?

That post had nothing to do with my read on you. It's literally me saying that I'm glad I'm not getting buddyed since you daid you arent town reading me. Ahich only can happen if you were scum.

The short story on the town lean; I think there is a couple of spots where you could of exploited posts to suit a mafia agenda (George's confusion for example) and have done pro-town moves like the issuing of the refusal to accept backpedals from Hoctac/ulmatal rather than opening the door for later confusion

[HoldenGolden]

I do not understand the point of reading into the masons/neighbor/scumteam claim. This game will not be won over role speculation.

Its more trying to figure out if there is a clearer POV to aid in reading than purely basing a read all off their claim.

I'm surprised you didnt spot something on the catch up, but I will have to wait and explain it later.

[HoldenGolden]

you better not be fucking with me, donkey

I fuck with everybody monkey. That's what donkeys do.

[HoldenGolden]

I

think that's probably not alignment indicative. It seems to depend on his motivation.

During a round of Conspiracy, he was similar in tone.

From what I've observed, I think town!Datasi comes alive when he feels he has good insight.

That being said,

perhaps you may be onto something with the Umlaut vot

e.

What did you not like about it.

I presume he was voting Umlaut for the sake of making the wagons even?

?

Was this a way to gague Hoctac's read?

Not what you bolded, no. The line I underlined above, yes.

Nvm I misread the context when I made the quote. The bold stuck out as I thought you were being wishywashy proposing that datsni play made sense from his town play while saying it was NAI and pushing a proxy pressure onto Hoctac.

That's why I thought Hiraki should of commented on it but I'm wrong in what lead to that point so meh.

[HoldenGolden]

The HEM-HG spat seems to me like it can easily be TvT. I totally buy "trying to more aggressively push my scumreads" as a kind of change someone would deliberately make as town, and I totally buy that HEM would be pinged if HG's playstyle changed that way. What does bother me a bit is HEM voting him in 210 after HG has already explained this, and then unvoting in 223 after the explanation. @HEM What changed for you between those two posts?

I thought it was pretty quickly clear that he had agreed that the playstyle change made sense given his pings. The continuation of the vote seem to be based on his misinterpretation of my read on him which required addtional explaintions on my part.

Reread that section. Does that knowledge change your read?

[HoldenGolden]

Compare this to this.

Although I think I buy that the change in playstyle can come from town!HG. I think scum!HG would focus more on defending that he isn't off his town game than outright saying he changed his playstyle.

Out of curiosity, why did you pick my shitposting rather than the commentary I made about my meta/views on scum from the newbie?

[HoldenGolden]

Scattered catchup thoughts, not retracting anything btw.

Neighborhood is off the table fyi to the thread.

[HoldenGolden]

shiki
Holden
Hiraki
Madoka
GeorgeBailey
monkey

Datisi

My scumlean on you is very weak

, most of my reads are right now.

uh huh

Disregard claims for a second. Why do you think your placing here is suspicious to begin with?

[HoldenGolden]

shiki
Holden
Hiraki
Madoka
GeorgeBailey
monkey
Datisi

Here's my Very Wrong readslist you can all laugh about post game.

Also why is George in that spot?

I can understand the progression leading up to monkey being down there, but I'm not sure what caused the change in george.

[HoldenGolden]

About what post. You quoted one from Datsni

[HoldenGolden]

I

think that's probably not alignment indicative. It seems to depend on his motivation.

During a round of Conspiracy, he was similar in tone.

From what I've observed, I think town!Datasi comes alive when he feels he has good insight.

That being said,

perhaps you may be onto something with the Umlaut vot

e.

What did you not like about it.

I presume he was voting Umlaut for the sake of making the wagons even?

?

Was this a way to gague Hoctac's read?

Not what you bolded, no. The line I underlined above, yes.

Nvm I misread the context when I made the quote. The bold stuck out as I thought you were being wishywashy proposing that datsni play made sense from his town play while saying it was NAI and pushing a proxy pressure onto Hoctac.

That's why I thought Hiraki should of commented on it but I'm wrong in what lead to that point so meh.

Are you talking about this Madoka?

[HoldenGolden]

I'm currently moving goats so not exactly here atm

@Holden, did scum HEM in your last game play similarly to Blitz I? Or did he change up his style? Do you think his play here is within the realm of being deliberately different?

No, but I think it's hard trying to compare HEM between the blitz I game and that newbie. Regardless, HEM in the newbie had more range when it came to emotional play and was able to balance it pretty well out of d2 (d1 looking back wasnt as clean but eh). Apperently that is in his meta scum play according to a meta dive done by cli2d in that game. It's worth nothing that he was putting a lot of focus on his scum buddy 3bounty which is what won him the game.

Additionally, there was a comment about meta usage somewhere in that game where HEM admitted he is not a big fan of doing meta analysis himself since he feels (like me) you actually have to play with both alignments of a person to get a good meta read.

The main thing I've looked for is the expression of laziness. Monkey in the newbie scum qt admitted to wanting to be lazy scum and during the game commented that he was growing tired of mafia. I think both town!HEM and scum1HEM would be lazier here. The former because he can finally be laid back and the later due to scum burnout of rolling scum 3 times in a very short time span.

Is his play out of his scum range? No, absolutely not. However, its more likely to come Town PoV imo. I think scum!Hem, even if lazy, would of pushed a scum agenda more with the George and his read on me. I did a pseudo reaction test by unvoting during our debate to see how he handled it and I feel scum would of jumped on the unvote to push me. Rather, he actually tried to work out his stance on me concerning the town lean point.

[HoldenGolden]

Because I think the 1v1 was TvS, they seem to both scumread each other strongly.

HEM is urking me because of his earlier HG push, which felt like he strongly thought HG was town and then changed his mind rather quickly.

Huh?

HG how do you feel when i tell you that im not townreading you

Literally the entire push was due to my response to him NOT townreading me and over both the change in playstyle and the confusion of my town lean on him which had not explaintion prior to it.

VOTE: George

The number of misrepresentations of HEM push onto me from a number of players is getting ridiculous. Please actually read the interaction before making commentary on it.

[HoldenGolden]

Side note: Goat transfer was a success. Goat pen I was not. Goat pen II will be a success.

[HoldenGolden]

sorry sorry. I really like the post by post catch up, while I don't think I understand her push on Datisi, (the paragraph rhymed and i liked it but i don't get it) it doesn't sound forceful in a way where scum needs a target to push to seem like they're doing something.

I think that post towntells for her due to the effort put into scumhunting.

I think i'm down to choosing between Monkey and Hiraki right now.

I don't think this is bussing so one has to be scum or town.

I'm wary of the Hiraki wagon right now because it got really high really fast, and it was started by one of my scumreads.

I have a Billy goat to your head. It's ready to baaaaahhh you to hell unless you pick one or the other. Which one do you pick.

[HoldenGolden]

This is revenge for Fusion.

Don't give me flashbacks like that

Which one do you pick.

VOTE: Hiraki

Good. Good.

Now explain it. Why Hiraki over Monkey.

[HoldenGolden]

One person that does a lot of meta persuades your opinion?

But this is a new game, where you're not supposed to know her alignment.

This displeases me!

How does it displease you? Putting a dependence on a read on someone else's read isn't something you do as a first option. It's pretty close to the last option. The only thing HEM has against me is that I'm twisting his words - which, wait a second that sounds familiar -

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p11703551

Oopsie.

Let's work from this narrative then. I can pull the post I was talking about from the newbie where post game HEM commented he doesn't like using meta. How does that affect your read considering he is asking Shiki for meta?

[HoldenGolden]

since HEM is not happening today

since HEM is not happening today

since HEM is not happening today

please, take such utter glory in me moving my vote to my secondary scumread because of a deadline, that is truly the best way to think of this whole situation

Would scum Hiraki actively try to undermine Hoctac's town!hiraki explanation and towncred by showing him switching targets?

I read the interaction tilted (and quite honestly am exhausted from today's actions) since I feel HEM is town, but I am not getting any scum!pings from Hiraki

pedit: I see now. Rereading

[HoldenGolden]

Up to Page 10

Spoiler: LIT

125 hu: town, objective
126 nai
127 nai
134 nai
138 nai
140 hu: super town -- I am actually going to stop including HEM's posts since he's locked.
141 cont.
142 sh: her analysis seems to be particularly on point this game -- sharp or dark? If anyone can think of a better opposite to "dumb or scum" that rhymes please help
144 ho: ngl why is he continuing this after Hoctac hard claimed?
146 ge: this doesn't make sense, why null rather than datisi? What is town about datisi?
148 nai
152 Ho: why are you still questioning him?
153 nai townish
167 da: this response is disproportional to the accusation. Coming across it a second time, I dont think this is town. I also don't care for the shiki vote. holden is the scummiest up to this point.
170 da: good response
174 sh: the idea that i asked umlaut to vote doesnt seem like the though scum!Shiki would have
145 da: good response
178 nai
179 nai
183 nai
184 nai
185 ge: townie thought, very townie
186 nai
187 ho: what is the purpose of this
188 ho: ok this is pretty townie looks ignorant
189 nai
190 ho: i think it is bad that holden is focusing so much on this. I know he tends to get caught up on stuff though so im not sure what to make of it
191 nai
192 nai
193 ho: the answer is pretty straight forward
195 nai
197 nai
199 ho: slightly town indicative
206 ho: good good
207 nai
208 nai
211 nai
212 nai
213 and dont know what hes saying
215 nai
218 ho: good eval
219 nai
220 nai but good
225 ho: intersting
226 nai
235 ge: entering tmi territory
236 nai
236 ge: good tone
242 da:good tone
243 sh: i like the hg read
244 ge: so tmi-y
245 nai

♡ I still read Datisi's reaction as coming from self-conscious scum. Some of his responses afterward had a towny tone, however, I do not think they are enough to override the read. Still, this read is not that strong.

♡ Holden's treatment of the masons was strange. He focused on it way too long and he questioned umlaut way too long. It did not produce anything fruitful. I really cannot wrap my head around why he discussed the Madoka vote thing with him so long. I think there is a good chance Holden is scum.

♡ Shiki has made solid post after solid post. Her reasoning is consistent and her points do not come off to me as having come from scum. In particular, her paranoia that I asked umlaut to vote her and her read on Holden.

♡ Hiraki's post up to this point have also left a slight town impression on me. They looked worse when I was skimming, but his points are not bad.

♡ George has made some really innocent seeming posts, but he also seems to be making a lot of posts that read as TMI.

In particular, his read of shiki and his read of Holden. He made a post saying that he thinks the reason holden is playing differently here is because of the pace. I think this is a strange opinion to have considering the last game they played together was also a blitz game... I think George is currently my strongest suspect.

Let's talk about the bolded first.

I'll give the agreement that I was focused on Ulmat while most were not, especially given his reaction and his further posts pinging me. I am confused though on why my continued discussion about the Mason's stands out to you when others were actively discussing alternatives to the claims around the same time I brought up the neighbor's logic (from memory alone, Datisi, George, Shiki, and HEM). Not only was it a focus on the thread the time, but I also stopped after the reaffirmation by Ulmant in a later post like everyone else. Why does my discussion stand out to you? Further, Whats this "Holden doesn't let things go" you mention in the spoiled PbP analysis? You are giving yourself a reason to doubt your read logic which I find hard to believe actually exists (as I don't think letting things go = pressure)?

Particularly in the HEM George reaction over my playstyle, how is it TMI? George was asked to compared by ISO from the newbie me and HEM played versus this game. It had nothing to do with the blitz game prior to this, and due to the differences in the length of day phases, I don't see how that is anymore TMI than a reasonable conclusion based on the comparison presented by HEM. The only way it makes sense is if george is scum, and he slipped that I am town since he knows I am town. But that sounds flimsy.

Now onto the spoiled PBP analysis, whats the point in including words like "weird/interesting/hmm" etc. for an analysis and then not explain why they are such interesting bits? None of that actually explains anything AI, and only serves as fluff if you arent going to actually use those posts for anything AI.

[HoldenGolden]

Specifically, why is this "super town" from monkey?

Oh! I had forgotten I even town read that. It was town because of how forward he was with it. There is no advantage to doubting the mason claim so hard as scum because it pins two players that know each other are town against you. I also like how immediate his reaction was to your claim. I can see from his perspective why he thought it was fake.

The reason why I find Holden's approach scummy, on the other hand,

is because of how indirectly he is going about it. He is actively spending his time questioning the two of you when you are going to be sorted out eventually.

How is directly questioning them and trying to figure out the motivation behind the stunt they pulled if scum (the neighbor theorizing posts) indirect doubting especially since I haven't made a post directed at them for awhile?

[HoldenGolden]

Your town read on Holden is unwarranted by the way. He types his intro posts before the game. It is NAI. I recommend reading some of his scum meta.

It is true. I did start the intro post prior to the game starting. Idk how reading my scum meta will help considering I actually didn't do it in either games there however iirc.

I'm even more confused. You also in your catch up called plenty of my posts good/townie, so why do you assume that Hoctac's locktown post from earlier is the only reason someone could be townreading me?

[HoldenGolden]

How is directly questioning them and trying to figure out the motivation behind the stunt they pulled if scum (the neighbor theorizing posts) indirect doubting especially since I haven't made a post directed at them for awhile?

I am speaking from a page 10 standpoint.

Ok

How is directly questioning them and trying to figure out the motivation behind the stunt they pulled if scum (the neighbor theorizing posts) indirect doubting

especially since I haven't made a post directed at them for awhile?

page 10 fixed since that was the page Ulmant reaffirmed his mason status.

[HoldenGolden]

Madoka, why do you put so much stock into people doubting our masons claims to as being towny - especially with regards to the monkey? Is in not possible scum would transparently question us if they actually had doubts of a gambit, since they want to kill more optimally in the night?

I do not believe I am. I think George had the the towniest reaction to your claim. My reasoning for town reading HEM is independent of what he thought about your claim. I think the way Holden treated it, however, was scummy because of how long he spent theorizing about your motivations. It was a waste of time for something that would be cleared up on its own.

Wait, so your reasoning for George being where he is read wise is due to TMI?

I get a feeling your read on me is stronger based on how you reconfirmed it without being asked to Hoctac here:

Specifically, why is this "super town" from monkey?

Oh! I had forgotten I even town read that. It was town because of how forward he was with it. There is no advantage to doubting the mason claim so hard as scum because it pins two players that know each other are town against you. I also like how immediate his reaction was to your claim. I can see from his perspective why he thought it was fake.

The reason why I find Holden's approach scummy, on the other hand, is because of how indirectly he is going about it. He is actively spending his time questioning the two of you when you are going to be sorted out eventually.

So why not vote and pressure me directly?

[HoldenGolden]

187 ho: what is the purpose of this
188 ho: ok this is pretty townie looks ignorant (neighor theory discussion post)
190 ho: i think it is bad that holden is focusing so much on this.

I know he tends to get caught up on stuff though so im not sure what to make of it

199 ho: slightly town indicative
206 ho: good good
218 ho: good eval

This is just from the last post as I think it be unfair to include the last PBP analysis where you voice that you think there are townie posts from me or that there are explanations to my posts. Even going so far to state that part of my discussion about the mason's is townie. I have no problem with this normally, but the way you keep pushing it when you filpped on George for "TMI" (at least with monkey, I feel you fully misread the post) doesn't align with this debate on my alignment at all. You are saying to people that their townread is unfounded and to reread me without asking for more of their read on me despite these contradictions. You aren't directly trying to redirect wagons to me or even push me for that matter, but you keep focusing back on your scumread on me.

I don't understand your progression or stance on me at all given everything.

[HoldenGolden]

You didnt even intent haha.

This was my role btw

You just earned yourself a good ole fashion low country voodooing mister

[HoldenGolden]

You just earned yourself a good ole fashion low country voodooing mister

I couldn't help it

but in all seriousness, this was my role

I'm not falling for it again, Sith Lord.

[HoldenGolden]

There is several bread crumbs we made. I mentioned that Datisi is cursed in the crusading post which is a reference to the town PR curse he has where every game we play together he is a PR. The sheeping contract is a hint at masonry. Then I crumbled again at the EoD

You didnt even intent haha.

This was my role btw

You just earned yourself a good ole fashion low country voodooing mister

Lowcountry Voodoo=Hoodoo
This means war= War

The Hoodoo War is another name for the Mason County War

[HoldenGolden]

Hoctac's idea was that it would confirm mafia believed the neighbor claim and so the other neighbor was town, but I did point out at some point in the day that if he were scum he could just kill me and use that same argument to "clear" himself if people bought it, so I don"t necessarily expect to be treated as clear. But I know this means Mafia at least thought the claims were likely to be true.

He also pointed out last night that Datisi's hammer really came out of nowhere given his stated reads and he found it monumentally scummy. I'm not allowed to quote posts but when I have a chance I'll give a summary of everything we talked about in the nhood.

Armed with this info, move on to your next steps.

The Weedlies alignment is crucial now. Me and Datisi have been debating PR setups since their claim and we have reached an impass if town masons + town/town neighbors would be balanced.

[HoldenGolden]

Hoctac's idea was that it would confirm mafia believed the neighbor claim and so the other neighbor was town, but I did point out at some point in the day that if he were scum he could just kill me and use that same argument to "clear" himself if people bought it, so I don"t necessarily expect to be treated as clear. But I know this means Mafia at least thought the claims were likely to be true.

This just doesn't make sense to accept as town!Umlaut but makes so much sense as scum!Umlaut.

There is a way I can understand town!Umlaut, but I need time to work it through to the point of articulation of it

[HoldenGolden]

Uh huh.

Show me then.

My perspective has no qualms with the comparison of bugs/HEM vs what you say you are seeing here between shiki/Hem if there is a good rational behind it

[HoldenGolden]

No, I am not going to spend time trying to explain vibe. The way he talks about Shiki reminds me of the way he talked about bugspray. Read it yourself or lynch me.

@datisi, I have no idea if it is Shiki + HEM until I see Hiraki's flip. This conversation is fruitless because it is speculation based on no evidence other than PoE.

I just read HEMs ISO from Blitz I. I dont see what you saw. HEM made a few callouts to Bugs there, but not nearly as much nor in the same vain as he has done with Shiki here.

Why are you giving us this ultimatum to either accept it or lynch you when both Hiraki and Ulmants wagons have support? You aren't in dying danger of getting lynched, and there is plenty of time left to change peoples views on shiki/HEM if you dont want those two wagons.

We are also not pushing this game into day 3 rush style by lynching X and then auto assuming scum pool is in [Y,Z]. This goes for everybody.

[HoldenGolden]

I'm actually currently in a middle of a breif VCA analysis of day one (I typically dont do it day 2, but since either me or Datisi is gonna die, might as well get it out in the thread and save Datisi the trouble of having to paraphrase it).

The VCA from when george began becoming the dominant wagon prior to the HEM/Hiraki is more worthwhile to look at imo and I'll explain why with the post coming up

[HoldenGolden]

My vibe on the similarity between your interaction with Bugs in Blitz I and Shiki here comes from how often you mentioned them. Despite bugs being a town lean, you mentioned their name more than any player in Blitz I.

B1

Holden - 6 = 4%
Luca - 8 = 5%
George - 9 = 6%
Shiki - 9 = 6%
Madoka - 10 = 7%
Datisi - 29 = 19%
Hiraki - 30 = 20%
Bugs - 48 = 32%

B2

HoldenGolden - 2 = 1%
GeorgeBailey 10 = 6%
Datisi - 9 = 6%
Madoka -17 = 11%
Hoctac -19 = 11%
Umlaut - 23 = 14%
shiki - 30 = 18%
Hiraki -50 = 31%

(Approximate)

Additionally, both the way you've called out shiki's name here and the way you spoke of bugs felt unnatural to me, as if you were trying to keep in good light. That being said, it would be funny if Hiraki was actually your partner here and this is a legitimate partner tell.

Also how is this factoring in the fact that bugs was the day 1 lynch which would force more interaction out of HEM versus here where Shiki hasn't had a serious bandwagon?

[HoldenGolden]

Are you claiming PR monkey?

[HoldenGolden]

Oh is blue PR color? I just wanted to emphasize that Umlaut and Hiraki are both unconfirmed in a green wagon and Umlaut is still working on a narrative that it's not an obvious counterwagon to Hiraki.

I take it instinctively as a PR ish color since its not green nor red. It's also from where I've read mafia games off site that use blue for TPR

Isnt him saying hiraki's vote on George being survival in nature contradict your assumption that he is fighting that narrative? He could of easily said that Hirakis vote though makes sense given that it was his second scum lean.

I know that's an option because I'm reading those posts from Hiraki rn lol

[HoldenGolden]

I haven't had time to remake my VCA post (power went out last night causing me to lose it. Should really start using save draft feature instead). Will do so when I got more time tk sjt down and formally write it out.

Tldr really comes down to Hiraki's alignment since it either implies mafia has two town wagons and would be able to spread out their votes or if he is scum, the aligning of scum reads during the time the George wagon came back to domaince in the wagon is likely to be someone trying to aid scumhiraki.

I'll explain more when I make the post

[HoldenGolden]

I'm here. Working away.

Got some spicy takes coming in.

[HoldenGolden]

Holden's predeath VCA
Part I: Dominance in the George Wagon

==================================================================================

A quick disclaimer: I normally like doing VCA's either after two nk's (aka if there is a lot of dead townies) or if there is a flipped scum. It makes VCA much more powerful as it only needs to consider less factors and cuts down on the possibilities of scum's voting patterns. Since one of me/datisi will die tonight, I rather post this now instead of forcing datisi to paraphrase it if I die. Also, while the results of the flip today will implicate VCA, mine and Ulmant's declaration of doing VCA will most likely cause scum to be more aware of where they are voting if they have a choice. I will also be breaking them up to avoid posting the giant walls of text that was my VCA in newbie 1996.

The usual goes for VCA as well. It is a tool; used in conjunction with other analysis to make a read. VCA is not a definitive thing, nor is it impossible for scum to do things on purpose to foil it. I am not a meta know-it-all, but I do know at least one player has the capacity of underminding VCA if he chooses to as scum (cough cough HEM).

Also some terminology:

"Pseudo-voting"

is when someone expresses the willingness to vote somebody without actually voting them. It is important to look at since pressure is the name of the game with bandwagons, and inconsistencies with these pseudo votes and where the actual vote falls can reveal hidden agendas.

Now to get us started.

==================================================================================

I'm going to be starting my VCA at the point where George's wagon broke the abituary even wagon rule town had day 1 and became the dominant wagon. It cuts out a lot of useless analysis such as, well the arbitrary even wagon rule, as well as RVS esk voting. There are content related reasons why people are voting who they are in the VC below, but my focus is on the formation of the mislynch bandwagon and not the evaluation of each reason to vote whom. For reference, the VC at this point was:

Votecount 1.06

GeorgeBailey (3)-

Umlaut, humaneatingmonkey,

Hoctac

Madoka (2) -

GeorgeBailey, Datisi

humaneatingmonkey (1) -

Hiraki

Not Voting (3) -

Madoka,

HoldenGolden,

shiki

With 9 players alive it takes 5 votes to lynch.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2020-05-17 18:10:00).

[/color]

*This is prior to the HEM/Hiraki interaction

Some key contextual points:

(1) The Secondary Wagon (Madoka) was fully town driven at this point.

Unfortunately, this dissolves as a consequence of the HEM/Hiraki fight not allowing much AI analysis right now. However, if Madoka flips town this game, that means mafia going into their interaction was in a comfortable spot with two mislynch potentials and most likely are spread out across wagons. If Madoka flips scum, more attention should be placed on slots "hovering" or pseudo-voting both wagons as it is likely the mafia buddy leaving the door open to bussing Madoka (especially since that implies the mafia bought the fake mason claim and would need the extra town cred potentially).

(2) Mafia (regardless of who they are) also knows there is town support on the George wagon at this time as well:

Spoiler:

i kinda don't want to hang mr bailey but my townread on him is dwindling

More important for the conclusion drawn at the end of this section.

(3) Hiraki pseudo-votes George while expressing doubt about the vote; reads promote his attempt to change wagons

This is very important since later Hiraki will cite that his inability to get the HEM wagon rolling despite the fact he seemingly already thought of switching over before the HEM/Hiraki interaction.

Spoiler:

That being said, in general, I do not like how the George wagon is forming. It's starting to feel scumsided based on how everyone just decides to say he's lynchable. On the same side, I still think that he is scummy it's just that the formation of this wagon is weird. Hard to accurately explain. I understand that I'm going to have to move my vote because of the timing of this game but I'm not sure if I want to move it to any of the current wagons at this point (which would be the entire purpose of moving my vote). I still hard TR Holden, now Shiki, and Madoka (recent posting has been very good). That leaves:

Datisi (slight SR but I am with whoever said it's not worth trying to figure out if "masons" are masons on D1)
Umlaut (scarred but generally null for now)
Hoctac (town-lean but still null - too much NAI posting)
GeorgeBailey (scummy)

Besides the wishy-washy stance taken here, it is worth noting that Hiraki

scum reads or null reads

the rest of the voting players. As either alignment, this gives Hiraki the position to get out of voting the george wagon since no actual town reads from his PoV is on them. Yes, he says that hoctac is a town lean. He also says literally right afterwards "but still null". Furthermore, the hard townreads are all on players who have yet to vote. I find this read dynamic in partnership with the VC very interesting as it basically butter up the rest of the players into trying to follow him onto HEM. Normally I would say this is a scummy due to the wishy-washyness and this subtle attempt to influence the thread, but it is pushing votes off the main mislynch wagon so i'll reserve reading into it till analyzing the HEM/Hirkai voting stage.

=====================================================================================

This leaves me with conclusion one:

I do not believe the team of Hiraki/Madoka exists from VCA perspective

Although Hiraki does come in and drops the ability to vote George, his attempts to discredit the two leading wagons and push into HEM is terrible to ensure his partner Madoka survives being the counter wagon. Datisi was already expressing the pseudo-voting to switch to George, and the push onto HEM would of drawn HEM's vote off the main mislynch wagon. While I think the latter is fine for a Hiraki/X scum team, the fact that Madoka was in the counterwagon position makes it more dicey of a stunt for the team Hiraki/Madoka to pull. Not only will Hiraki draw a lot of attention to himself most likely moving him into the wagon game, but it does nothing to to actually fix the Madoka situation favorably. This isn't even considering that Madoka was already starting to get out of the counterwagon via her catchup posts. The only real benefit for this scum team to be pushing HEM specifically to avoid a mafia/town wagon would be taking adventage of george's stronger scum read on HEM at the time, but fighting to get your mislynch to vote off your wagon really isn't worth the push.

Oh and I doubt that Hiraki/HEM is a team too but that's a bit obvious.

Moving into the Hiraki/HEM interaction now.

[HoldenGolden]

Oh and I doubt that Hiraki/HEM is a team too but that's a bit obvious.

I hardbussed 3bounty in Newbie 1996, so is it really that obvious?

Just kidding you don't have anything to be worried about.

Yeah but here you and Hiraki would have to basically agree at a state of the game where two wagons on town has formed with hardly your involvement to start your interaction drawing votes off on them for no real reason.

Is it possible, yea? Is it a worthwhile situation to consider when doing VCA? Not at all lol. If I did that, then VCA reveals that all team pairings are possible so lets all just random vote and see what happens!

[HoldenGolden]

Addendum Part I,

Section: Conclusion One.

This is why I ask:

I think the difference between scum!Hiraki and town!Hiraki is that town!Hiraki is generally perceptive on scumtells and push it so he can get more accurate reads from the pressure he creates. Scum!Hiraki would need to manufacture these scumtells from peope that he know is town.

I have the benefit of knowing that he's wrong about me, so his push on me might seem like he's trying to manufacture scumtells out of me. However, I'm still considering if it's an honest mistake that he misread my post. After #414, it's weird to me that Hiraki refused to acknowledge my existence and even took me out of his reads list. He mentions that he didn't misread my post but didn't want to argue about it anymore.

So now my head is: Is this town!Hiraki too proud to own up to his mistake or is this scum!Hiraki failing to get momentum on his manufactured push?

I want to know.

VOTE: Hiraki

I'm voting you - how am I taking you out of my reads list? He asked for everyone

but

you. We're going in circles in this argument and there's no point in continuing it because you're just going to "clarify" (read: change)

your post more and more and more. I even put that part in my post that I don't think your lynch goes through today.

I remembered incorrectly the intensity of Hiraki during this time and thought he had push harder onto HEM. Rather, as posts like this suggest, Hiraki had no intentions to try and fight for a HEM lynch. This does invalidate the ruling out of Hiraki/Madoka on the logic presented above. I do think however that stands that they are an unlikely scum team based on Madoka's quick hop on during the Hiraki wagon (which was not shown in a VC, but actually overtook as the major wagon at the time). Still reading however.

[HoldenGolden]

V/LA status Till Saturday Morning EST time; expect PM explaining situation @Mod

It is not the extent of the VCA analysis. For reasons I wont go into, I havent been able to complete it. Working on it now through mobile.

[HoldenGolden]

Rather, as posts like this suggest, Hiraki had no intentions to try and fight for a HEM lynch.

Really? Or was it that everyone dismissed what I was saying and even I get tired?

What I was saying was I thought you were more gungho during that interaction about lynching HEM which upon rereading you were not. You post quoted above is an example of you throughout the interaction voicing (and later actually) voting george.

[HoldenGolden]

This is going to be a ugly post format wise so apologizes. Font color is a bullshit coding feature on moblie, so I'll Underline confirmed towns for my ease.

Starting with the actual start of the Hiraki with HEM's post:

Spoiler:

This is why I ask:

I think the difference between scum!Hiraki and town!Hiraki is that town!Hiraki is generally perceptive on scumtells and push it so he can get more accurate reads from the pressure he creates. Scum!Hiraki would need to manufacture these scumtells from peope that he know is town.

I have the benefit of knowing that he's wrong about me, so his push on me might seem like he's trying to manufacture scumtells out of me. However, I'm still considering if it's an honest mistake that he misread my post. After #414, it's weird to me that Hiraki refused to acknowledge my existence and even took me out of his reads list. He mentions that he didn't misread my post but didn't want to argue about it anymore.

So now my head is: Is this town!Hiraki too proud to own up to his mistake or is this scum!Hiraki failing to get momentum on his manufactured push?

I want to know.

VOTE: Hiraki

HEM reasoning here is over the manufacturing of fake scum tells. The logic breaks down during the interaction with instances where Hiraki refutes points like not listing Monkey on a read post which was HEM not paying attention to the question asked towards Hiraki by Hoctac.

The wagon picks up for Hiraki as he enters the lead, with both confirm towns

Hoctac and Datisi

voting him. This huge swing we know is from a townie perspective, so scum either way will be more hesitant to approach the wagon if not on it (assuming HEM didnt decide to lul, HG will VCA this game let's just hard bus eachother Hiraki kekeke). Town to distance themselves from the mislynch especially since George is still a scum read, and scum to avoid drawing more attention to the wagon via direct confrontation. With that, I want to look at the people who arent confirmed town expressing their take on the wagon.

First up is Madoka who is tricky since she doesn't vote till ready. Yet, there is still stuff to talk about:

I think my reads are about the same but with Datisi in place of Madoka. Shiki, George, and Holden are also on the same level.

This is in response to Datisi read list that had Hiraki in a bracket towards the bottom. Madoka interjects her scum Datisi read into this level equating that she views this as scum territory.

Reading her ISO up to this point she had a slight town lean into declaring Hiraki a good choice for a lynch with little explanation. All I really see is where the two debated questions, yet there isnt any reflection of Hiraki's alignment in them.

While it makes sense for Madoka to have this read here in the post in some ways, her follow up during the interaction doesn't support it.

Despite posting during the interaction, Madoka only focus was pressuring Datisi further with direct conversation with it. Yes, Madoka did begin the catch up Playbyplay analysis at this point, but the quoted post above clearly shows that it didnt hard reset her reads as the Hiraki scum lean prior to the pbp analysis. I find this behavior more likely to be scummy.
===============================
Ulamant (Weedile) posted heavily during this time period and despite having a relatively laid back stance in terms of voting Hiraki, does demonstrate some level of genuine investigation. My main gripe with the posts is that little actual reflection over Hiraki answers comes about in terms of describing a read on him before he reconfirms his scum read.

I'm a bit torn considering that as his town neighbor was also voting, why wouldnt scum!Ulamant take advantage of the chance and vote a town!Hiraki if that was the case. His approach would of yielded more credibility I feel than his neighbors vote which can be painted as optimistic in comparison.

Thus I'm divided. I think that from a VCA angle that town!hiraki/scum!ultmant does not exist. I think his actions make sense however for a scum teammate and thus cannot rule out the scum team.
====================================
========================================
The wagons shifted back to George before Shiki posted again. Oddly, the only reflection I saw was this post.

{madoka, hiraki} - Actively not a Townread™

i think madoka is town in most worlds in which the mason claims are masons. the concrete nature of her reads being based on post by post analysis put her in a position where she would only be able to push you and hiraki at a time when there were two votes on her and no votes on either of you. it's possible the push on hiraki was coordinated because of this but that seems unlikely to me.

That being said, in general, I do not like how the George wagon is forming.

it kinda feels like our mason claims do not care who is lynched. umlaut is scumreading georgebailey for something i thought was kinda towny and hoctac is scumreading georgebailey for not responding to his request for reads promptly. umlaut voiced his suspicion of you immediately after monkey started the wagon and hoctac has jumped between the wagons.

This stuck out as I find the later half a misrep of Umlaut as he had prior suspicions on Hiraki before the interaction. The upper part I disagree with logically, but I'm fine with different views.

However, Shiki states that the town read on Madoka is due in part to the legitimacy of the Mason claim which she ends up calling into question in this later half.

This makes the town read on Madoka much more flexible than how it appears here. Considering the lack of reflection on the interaction directly and using it to create reads that are logically/contextually flawed feels as it is coming from a mafia perspective.
======================================
It's hard to say much about it considering we dont know Hiraki's alignment, but I find the outside factors surrounding his wagon from players suspicious. Shiki and to a lesser extent Madoka both have scum indicative ways they interacted with the formation of the wagon (or more precisely lack of). Ulmant can go either way, but if Hiraki flips town, I feel Ultmant has a decent chance of being town (not auto cleared but better than the other two).

I'm going to wrap up by trying to get to Hiraki and HEM posts during this time (mainly due to the implications of Hiraki going onto the main wagon and HEM going off wagon), but I'm not in a particularly good mood nor have good connection right now. If there is a hammer, I shall have Datisi rely the info.

[HoldenGolden]

Datisi has been killed Night 2. He was a

Town Mason

.

It is now Day 3.

Votecount 3.00

Not Voting (5) -

shiki, HoldenGolden, humaneatingmonkey, clidd, Umlaut

With 5 players alive it takes 3 votes to lynch.

The deadline for Day 3 is in (expired on 2020-05-25 11:20:00).

Hmm, I sense a disturbance in the night kill logic.

Why was Datisi killed over me despite him voicing a level of inability to get into this game?

[HoldenGolden]

If holden is mason, and Holden + Monkey aren't SvS, I am inclined to think that they are TvT if there was no significant push to lynch each other on D1 ~ D2, what makes the game's solution theoretically being

Shiki + Umlaut

and the speculation about coexistence between hood and mason wrong.

If you're town Shiki, however, the solve is basically Monkey + Umlaut. But the solution above is more plausible ^

I already given a commentary on "meta" for HEM day 1, but I dont know his town meta first hand.

Why do you think us not trying to lynch eachother points to a TvT interaction? Especially since HEM made it clear day 1 he wasnt buddying me?

[HoldenGolden]

I can't believe Hiraki flipped town. He was playing so fucking bad that he should have been lynched all along since Day 1. His tunnel on me was full of shit that he extrapolated on even more shit. I can't believe you can play as town and really do that to someone. Someone people just have huge fucking egos that they can't accept that they may be wrong even when proven wrong multiple times.

Don't sign up on a game with me again, Hiraki.

Anyway I'm currently sleep-deprived right now after editing a heavy ass video. I'm gonna sleep and re-read after I wake up.

Monkey, considering Holden's natural paranoia regarding your slot (

which has already stolen 2 wins from him

), did he demonstrate this in a genuine way during the game in your opinion ? What's your read on him now ?

A new layer to your posts as well. That intrigues me. Why interject an emotionally producing phrase into your line of questioning to monkey?

He never has taken two games from me? He only won against me in the newbie.

[HoldenGolden]

I can't believe Hiraki flipped town. He was playing so fucking bad that he should have been lynched all along since Day 1. His tunnel on me was full of shit that he extrapolated on even more shit. I can't believe you can play as town and really do that to someone. Someone people just have huge fucking egos that they can't accept that they may be wrong even when proven wrong multiple times.

Don't sign up on a game with me again, Hiraki.

Anyway I'm currently sleep-deprived right now after editing a heavy ass video. I'm gonna sleep and re-read after I wake up.

Monkey, considering Holden's natural paranoia regarding your slot (

which has already stolen 2 wins from him

), did he demonstrate this in a genuine way during the game in your opinion ? What's your read on him now ?

A new layer to your posts as well. That intrigues me. Why interject an emotionally producing phrase into your line of questioning to monkey?

He never has taken two games from me? He only won against me in the newbie.

To see how he reacts, obviously.

Expect the way you did it is leading.

You clearly did not know I was confirmed town given your posts at that time. The way you worded it to HEM suggests that I would be furious to lose against him again, which I wouldnt think much of until I factor in HEM earlier concerns of my accusatory tone. That coupled with your expression of me being extra paranoid of HEM doesnt make sense when considering your TvT stance. If I was paranoid and frustrated, shouldnt I be more critical of him.

This is of course your logic when considering a SvS interaction between me and HEM, which begs the obvious question, why ask to begin with? Why ask my supposed scum buddy to gain his reaction rather than pursuing the suspicion with other players? I doubt the scum reaction would of told you anything.

That, and I do not remember you using such language typically as well.



PS. I was scum reading your predecessor.

[HoldenGolden]

Holden, summarize your reads on Shiki, it doesn't have to be something big. If you're mechanically town, I think we can work together to solve this.

I actually already have in the Mason PT.

I dont feel Shiki was as much as a force they were in the first blitz game. I feel Shiki is quite passive in numerous posts outside of VCA analysis and tend to display commentary on events rather than direct constant investigation.

Ironically, when compared to chain of command (a scum game of hers), I see this similar tonal aspect as well. I need to revisit the first blitz game to confirm my suspicions as well.

[HoldenGolden]

I'm going to be 99% honest.

If I had a gun I would pick a machine gun so I could just mow down all of you tonight. No survivors.

[HoldenGolden]

Expect the way you did it is leading.

You clearly did not know I was confirmed town given your posts at that time. The way you worded it to HEM suggests that I would be furious to lose against him again, which I wouldnt think much of until I factor in HEM earlier concerns of my accusatory tone. That coupled with your expression of me being extra paranoid of HEM doesnt make sense when considering your TvT stance. If I was paranoid and frustrated, shouldnt I be more critical of him.

This is of course your logic when considering a SvS interaction between me and HEM, which begs the obvious question, why ask to begin with? Why ask my supposed scum buddy to gain his reaction rather than pursuing the suspicion with other players? I doubt the scum reaction would of told you anything.

That, and I do not remember you using such language typically as well.



PS. I was scum reading your predecessor.

I think you're underestimating the purpose of my posts. My post was aimed at instigating Monkey's sense of greatness and trying to

diminish the cautious instance in the Scum!Monkey

scenario, something that is indifferent to your connection with him in the SvS theory I mentioned. I didn't understand your inference.

Do you not think then he was aggressive enough in his interactions with Hiraki?

[HoldenGolden]

i feel like hoctac's gambit basically caught us one mafia and gave us two confirmed town on day two and still we're in this position.

I'll admit amiss everything I did forget that post.

Do not feel so bad as either alignment. Being wrong is fully fine, and that's the point of a game like mafia. Merely learning how to turn errors on each alignment into new abilities is what important.

I'll take your statement at face value and believe you. Is there a section if Hoctac's gambit that outs who he was (which was the grevience I had in the PT). Was the game reference it?

What do you make of ulamants stance during the Hiraki wagon?

[HoldenGolden]

I'm going to be straight; I refuse to believe the NK was just a random choice. Datisi expression of tone in the later half of day 2 would make him a much more optional choice to bring into mylo/lylo than me. Well scum, guess what? You got my attention. You are now locked with a naked mason covered head to toe in honey, ready to wrestle you into submission! You have effectively locked yourself in mylo with an insane devil!

You, scum, have 8 hours to concede and maintain some honor left in your miserable lifes.

"Oh Holden, why would we concede? We are too busy mocking you in our shitty tin can we call a scum PT."

WELL, I say to you rotten pieces of crap that I may not solve this game correctly. You may very well have a victory. But I will make the next 72hours a living hell hole! I will finish my investigation into the noble Datisi's death and then proceed to SLAM this thread with extremely prejudiced and cold hearted LOGIC! This game will quickly soar to the heavens in post count as I turn up every virtual ROCK UNTIL I BUILD A TOWER JUST SO I CAN TIP THAT TOWER ONTO YOUR SCUMMY HEADS!

AHAGAGHAHAHAHGAHHAHAVAGAHHGAHAHAHAV

[HoldenGolden]

I superficially read his aggression in the game. My intention was based on specific information that I had absorbed from a quick reading of the game. Generally, I expected Scum!Monkey to act cautiously by default when answering me.

Based on what example?

Do you think that defensiveness is represented in his intial push day one on me?

[HoldenGolden]

I'm going to be straight; I refuse to believe the NK was just a random choice. Datisi expression of tone in the later half of day 2 would make him a much more optional choice to bring into mylo/lylo than me. Well scum, guess what? You got my attention. You are now locked with a naked mason covered head to toe in honey, ready to wrestle you into submission! You have effectively locked yourself in mylo with an insane devil!

You, scum, have 8 hours to concede and maintain some honor left in your miserable lifes.

"Oh Holden, why would we concede? We are too busy mocking you in our shitty tin can we call a scum PT."

WELL, I say to you rotten pieces of crap that I may not solve this game correctly. You may very well have a victory. But I will make the next 72hours a living hell hole! I will finish my investigation into the noble Datisi's death and then proceed to SLAM this thread with extremely prejudiced and cold hearted LOGIC! This game will quickly soar to the heavens in post count as I turn up every virtual ROCK UNTIL I BUILD A TOWER JUST SO I CAN TIP THAT TOWER ONTO YOUR SCUMMY HEADS!

AHAGAGHAHAHAHGAHHAHAVAGAHHGAHAHAHAV

Same as you did on Newbie 1996 after I replaced out of the game ?

Worse. I may even bring back gay erotica writing to further the game state.

I'm working on a NK theory right now but I'm about to get hit by a thunderstorm.

[HoldenGolden]

Is there a section if Hoctac's gambit that outs who he was (which was the grevience I had in the PT). Was the game reference it?

my realization that hoctac was hectic was a joke referencing my earlier post saying i thought hoctac was familiar to me but i couldn't put my finger on who. i assumed from the name and the playstyle but this:

hello friends!

or should i say,

hi guys i am town

confirmed it to me as it is a reference to a game datisi and i played together that i talked to hectic about while we were hydraing together.

What do you make of ulamants stance during the Hiraki wagon?

i thought he was staying open and pseudopushing umlaut. like he was fine with the lynch but he'd be fine with any other lynch too.

Hmm you have a point there. And I see now how you knew who it was.

What do you make of HEM's progression on Ulmant and switch to Hirakis wagon day two?

[HoldenGolden]

Say what you will, I believe I've cut half of the possible scum teams down which means technically I've contributed much more importance than I did in the Newbie

(Though let's be honest that 5 page VCA analysis was a good attempt and it was my drive/time crunch that prevented me from being able to at least find a scum HEM. That and he did play well)

[HoldenGolden]

my gut reaction when i saw hectic die was that the neighbors were both town because i'd lowkey expect someone else to get shot if one of them is scum (like i thought my reactions were plainly obvious if you knew they weren't masons) but holden disagrees with me so idk anymore

pedit: fine with massclaim, sure

I agree with that and I can see it happening.

I have an example of a game where the mason + town-hood scenario occurred: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

How did you not see me as the second Mason since there is multiple posts by both me and Datisi on the same page saying I was the second mason btw?

[HoldenGolden]

Write up coming a bit later today, but I believe the possible scum teams are:
HEM/Shiki
HEM/Ulmant
Cli2d/Shiki
Cli2d/Ulmant

I'll explain why and try to narrow it down more in said post

[HoldenGolden]

The main reason too (I havent had a chance to get to a computer today) was what pointed me to the conclusion: NK analysis.

Basically if you read Datisi's last few posts day 2, it paints a very good candidate for scum manipulation. Due to this, I thought I was going to die since scum would of had a much easier chance of getting Datisi to go along with a mislynch by how he expressed himself in the thread. That didnt happen. So the question became why did scum make a sub optimal shot?

Well when I compared the reads I got that:

Datisi:
Town lean on Ulmant
No stance given really on Shiki
Town on Hem
Scum on Madoka

Vs

Me:
Scum lean on ulmant
Scum on Shiki
Town on HEM
Scum on Madoka

So basically it doesnt make sense for shiki/Ulmant to make the kill since they would gain much more by keeping Datisi alive (among other factors like the extreme nuanced read on Ulmant). Likewise, I dont see enough to justify a team of Madoka/HEM to make the shot. They gain nothing expressively from it since both me and Datisi felt the same about the two slots.

So someone wanted me to be in last lynch for my scum reads is my conclusion. It's also why there can only be 4 possible scum teams as opposed to the 8 possible ones.

If this looks terribly formatted I'm sorry I'm on mobile and it's much more fleshed out elsewhere (mason pt). I'll explain or clear things up more once I'm fully back

[HoldenGolden]

I'll test something in a few hours.

I was going to vote and test if I'm right, but I'll wait for Holden.

Where are you voting.

This is key.

[HoldenGolden]

Write up coming a bit later today, but I believe the possible scum teams are:
HEM/Shiki
HEM/Ulmant
Cli2d/Shiki
Cli2d/Ulmant

I'll explain why and try to narrow it down more in said post

I have a few gut reads or WIFOM eliminations about these as well, but I'm curious on who you are planning on boting cli2d

[HoldenGolden]

If Shiki + Umlaut isn't possible, I'll vote Monkey.

Im not gonna lose to him

.

Prove to me it is if you disagree with it.

That reasoning is flimsy.

[HoldenGolden]

If holden is mason, and Holden + Monkey aren't SvS, I am inclined to think that they are TvT if there was no significant push to lynch each other on D1 ~ D2, what makes the game's solution theoretically being

Shiki + Umlaut

and the speculation about coexistence between hood and mason wrong.

If you're town Shiki, however, the solve is basically Monkey + Umlaut. But the solution above is more plausible ^

This is what you posted. Instead of trying to prove me wrong, you are just going with the next option citing a "I'm not gonna lose"

I call ballicks.

[HoldenGolden]

I'll probably ignore Holden until the end of this game.

I'm asking you to explain to me why you are so sure its HEM and why you arent refuting me over the Shiki/Ulmant read which you said you are more sure about.

If that's what it takes Cli2d for you to turn around and ignore my posts than fine. It's not my issue. It will be your issue if you are town if scum doesnt double bus if you are correct.

I'm not even saying scumHEM is impossible. I'm finding your play a radically different style than what I saw in newbie in a manner that is more scum aligned.

[HoldenGolden]

I think "I'm going to ignore Holden" is a pretty wtf reaction to have, but I can kind of empathize with clidd's wanting to vote and settle it in his own mind. I'd be lying if I said I hadn't strongly considered just voting shiki.

But I can follow why you decide Shiki is a better option.

I make a post based on NK analysis saying why I dont think Shiki/Ulmant is a possible team. Rather than try to refute it, the team that he prefers, he pushes the monkey read over it without much explanation.

In theory, it should be you who he votes since that's the common thread between the two teams and I'm not sure why he isnt doing that. That's what I want to know. A deeper rationale.

[HoldenGolden]

do you think clidd v. monkey would be a more desirable 1 v. 1 than me v. umlaut to {clidd, umlaut}? it makes just as much sense based on the worlds you presented and i previously expressed my willingness to vote.

Considering the town lock from Madoka on HEM, I would imagine that it wouldnt be as favorable. It requires far more backtracking. I'll admit it's more possible since cli2d replaced in allowing for it to break that mold however.

I think the purpose of keeping me alive today was for scum to try and win the game outright here rather than try to go to a true lylo.

[HoldenGolden]

I wonder if clidd was reaction testing to see how sure you were of your conclusions, Holden, by seeing whether you were comfortable with his voting. That would explain why he threatened to vote HEM instead of me, it would explain why he concluded with "I'm going to ignore you from now on," and it would explain why he didn't actually do it.

Why are you trying to defend cli2d?

If that's the point, why did he not take me up on my offer to explain things and instead choose to state he will ignore me? Even as a reaction test, that compromises the test.

Why would he even be reaction testing me on my conclusions as town rather than just openly discuss why he thinks differently?

[HoldenGolden]

Considering the town lock from Madoka on HEM, I would imagine that it wouldnt be as favorable. It requires far more backtracking.

though that is a townlock that clidd himself only noticed recently if we are to believe him, i agree that it seems like a weird angle for them to take.

I also believe cli2d intial question on HEM is further evidence that they arent a team.

Bussing eachother before even I speak much and with two perfectly good mislynches on the table makes little sense.

[HoldenGolden]

its 2 am so I shall do things here tomorrow.

[HoldenGolden]

Oh um I like the spoiler usage, but the formatting could use some

love. The spoilers also get a bit excessive. But hey! It seems you are really passionate in either finding scum or lying to my face!

(HEM I see white dots. My reading companionship is not suitbale right now, and I may be ~slightly~ tipsy. Keep doing the holy work and stuff.

Also congrats to releasing the new song. Can I get link post game plz thank tanks)

pedit: yeah you are right.

[HoldenGolden]

Spoiler:

I'll give the agreement that I was focused on Ulmat while most were not, especially given his reaction and his further posts pinging me.

➳ I am confused though on why my continued discussion about the Mason's stands out to you when others were actively discussing alternatives to the claims around the same time I brought up the neighbor's logic (from memory alone, Datisi, George, Shiki, and HEM). Not only was it a focus on the thread the time, but I also stopped after the reaffirmation by Ulmant in a later post like everyone else. Why does my discussion stand out to you?

➳ Further, Whats this "Holden doesn't let things go" you mention in the spoiled PbP analysis? You are giving yourself a reason to doubt your read logic which I find hard to believe actually exists (as I don't think letting things go = pressure)?

➳ Particularly in the HEM George reaction over my playstyle, how is it TMI? George was asked to compared by ISO from the newbie me and HEM played versus this game. It had nothing to do with the blitz game prior to this, and due to the differences in the length of day phases, I don't see how that is anymore TMI than a reasonable conclusion based on the comparison presented by HEM. The only way it makes sense is if george is scum, and he slipped that I am town since he knows I am town. But that sounds flimsy.

➳ Now onto the spoiled PBP analysis, whats the point in including words like "weird/interesting/hmm" etc. for an analysis and then not explain why they are such interesting bits? None of that actually explains anything AI, and only serves as fluff if you arent going to actually use those posts for anything AI.

➳

It is how much time you spent on it. In particular 187 - 189. Digging into their motivations seemed completely unnecessary at this point. It is possible, however, that my interpretation is biased by the fact that I am reading with the knowledge that they are hard claiming.

➳

In Blitz one you went in circles for days regarding the Night action plan and why it was best to lynch you. You were so fixated on it and I had to skim past it because of how unnecessary it was.

➳

Regarding the TMI, in 235 he is assigning intent behind your posts. There is a difference between saying:

"He's literally just been asking questions" and
"He's literally just been asking questions to get people to be more transparent with their reads."

Having insight into your intent is what is TMI. Similarly, in 244 he is presuming to know the reason why you are playing differently. This is especially weird because you already stated why you are playing differently, and that was not it. It is also weird because, while yes HEM brought up that newbie game as an

example

, his larger point was that you were playing different

in general

. George played with you in the previous Blitz, so the logic that your playstyle difference is due to the pacing does not hold up. He is focusing on the inconsequential difference between this and the newbie game, rather than the bigger point that HEM was trying to make. This indicates to me that he is not genuinely sorting you.

➳

I would not call the spoiled bit an analysis. My analysis is the non-spoiled bit. The spoiler is just for the sake of transparency, it is not there to communicate my thoughts. However, I am providing them so that you can see where my train of thought is at a given time and as a reference to the points I make in my evaluation.

I'm even more confused. You also in your catch up called plenty of my posts good/townie, so why do you assume that Hoctac's locktown post from earlier is the only reason someone could be townreading me?

Because I have not seen an indication that he has still been attempting to sort you since that post.

How is directly questioning them and trying to figure out the motivation behind the stunt they pulled if scum (the neighbor theorizing posts) indirect doubting

Because you were puzzling it out, whereas Monkey just said he did not believe it.

I get a feeling your read on me is stronger based on how you reconfirmed it without being asked to Hoctac here

Your feeling is incorrect. As you pointed out, I have gotten a number of town impressions from your posts as well, and they are stronger than those I have gotten from George.

So why not vote and pressure me directly?

I do not vote until I am ready to lynch. See Blitz I, Totally Real Food, and Hard Boiled Eggs.

A) I forgot to respond to this
B) I remember there was a TMI point raised in the ISO of madoka, but sadly it was for a george read. There goes easier team elimination.

[HoldenGolden]

Malo mori quam foedari

I'll be in a hour or so

[HoldenGolden]

I don't even have to speculate much to deduce that you kept Holden alive because of his stupidity.

Well this has degenerated into pointless name calling.

I'm not going to engage with you cli2d. You can call me stupid, idiotic, or fucktard I could care less. Now you just are applying that anybody and seemingly attack people trying to get your presepctive on things.

If you are scum, you using borderline rule breaking harassment.
If you are town, you have forgotten the social aspect of a social deduction game.

I wish you the best cli2d. I'm not sure what has provoked you to such a measure tonally to react like this. I wont speculate further to why you are acting like this than at the bottom. If I have done someone personally wrong to offend you, I offer PM discussion post game to try and resolve it.
==================
I believe the tonal reaction is to mask possible associative reads in lylo. This would help hide scumulmant than Shiki based on the contradiction I pointed out in scum teams presented by cli2d. I havent read the posts again, so I leave it to the rest of the game in lylo to make sure of if we reach lylo.

If so, ulmants scum play was pretty good and the few issues with it are completely understandable given the set up.

VOTE: Clidd

The die is cast. Bonam fortunam! You guys got this is lylo if we are correct. If not, we shall be speaking shortly again in post game.

[HoldenGolden]

Oh

[HoldenGolden]

Well played to Shiki btw for the very nuanced breadcrumb scum read btw. That was a work of art from both alignments.

[HoldenGolden]

The problem was Holden. He got pocket again.

Sure thing buddy.

[HoldenGolden]

Also,

Big thanks for Micc and PP for moderation. The game was smooth, and I appreciate your willingness to work with me Micc over my VLA)

[HoldenGolden]

What made you guys decide to kill Datisi rather than me?

I can see scum PT in a little bit but curious if my NK theory of being kept alive to vote ulmant/Shiki (this case ulmant) was true. It did correctly group the last two scums at least.

[HoldenGolden]

HoldenGolden's gonna be lynching me Day 1 in any game we play from now on.

Also nah. I only do that if scum plays bad.

but that doesnt stop me from shit posting