Mini Normal 2141: The World of Tomorrow [Game over!]

[Blair]

VOTE: VP Baltar

This is officially a wagon now. Anyone who isn't serious may flee like children now.

[Blair]

I've been playing mafia for over a decade, about eight years here on Mafia Scum (this is one of three alts), I have also played on Two Plus Two, Mafia Universe, EpicMafia, and a smattering of other forums no one here is likely to be familiar with.

Outside of forum mafia, I have also played numerous Skype mafia games and more face to face games than I can count. Face to face is my preferred medium, mountainous is my preferred setup, and town is my preferred faction.

So far you've posted twice without any game-relevant content - once to muse about forum meta, and once to ask a player-meta question to no one in particular.

How long do you anticipate it will be before you say something we can procure a read from?

P-edit: Hmm, apparently I know the puppy.

[Blair]

(Do you know me from here or somewhere else, Puppy? I don't have enough games under this name on MS for you to have played with me "a lot a lot")

[Blair]

Giving townreads is generally protown in my opinion as it opens yourself up to criticism

Generally?

Do you believe that is what is happening now, specifically? If so, why? If not, then why bring it up?

[Blair]

VOTE: Puppy

Be advised, I have exited RVS.

[Blair]

Puppy's wagon switch to Quick just to ask him a question, then unvoting while managing to both approve and disapprove of his answer simultaneously didn't sit well with me.

It looks like he just wanted an excuse to take his vote out of play (it does not appear that he is entirely devoid of opinions on everyone at this stage, so why did he take his vote out of play?)

[Blair]

I don't know.

I don't have to know what your ulterior motive was in order to recognize that there must have been one.

[Blair]

I will have stronger reads as the game progresses, possibly on you, perhaps on others. Right now, however, this is the event that perturbs me the most (that weird counterwagon action being the other one). I've placed my vote accordingly, I would urge others to do the same.

Why is your vote no longer in play, Puppy? It seems like you should have a better answer to the question you asked me.

[Blair]

It's never too soon to start tunneling!

Watch me.

[Blair]

Now answer

my

your own question, pl0x.

[Blair]

What do you think i would get by taking my vote out of play?

Why is your vote no longer in play, Puppy? It seems like you should have a better answer to the question you asked me.

[Blair]

My vote was on a very weak townread because i liked Quick's answer -- should i leave it there while i look for a better one?

Your non-answer and abject terror are noted.

[Blair]

Fortunately for you, VP's recent vote was worse.

VOTE: VP Baltar

P-edit: Oh good, you saw that, too. Join me in my crusade as we march toward a town victory!

[Blair]

[/sarcasm] Now a younger, less mature Blair would probably point that I did, in fact, just do so - and probably imply that your terror was evident from the way your scumbuddy leapt in to deflate the wagon.

I'm trying to improve myself and grow as a person, however, so I'll settle for asking you to take another stab at that question, because I think you're smart enough to see the problem with your last answer.

... Although, let's be honest... [sarcasm]

[Blair]

FoS on Atarashi is fair because I am EXTREMELY susceptible to buddying and I've played with Atarashi before so I suspect he knows that.

Everyone else please start spewing town so we can wrap this one up with minimal complications.

[Blair]

Ooh, is that an admission that there are only two of you?

[Blair]

(Context screams that I was referring to the person I'm voting for, by the way)

[Blair]

Votato is not.

Say more.

[Blair]

Hypothesis: Puppy is not explaining why he took his vote out of play because he knows the more times I ask the more petty it will sound as the game progresses.

Little does he know I do not fear looking petty!

[Blair]

I am EXTREMELY susceptible to buddying

???? You acted the exact opposite to this in our previous game together.

Hmm, maybe that was a conclusion I drew after the fact.

Somehow, this exchange was helpful to me. Thank you.

[Blair]

FoS on Atarashi is fair because I am EXTREMELY susceptible to buddying and I've played with Atarashi before so I suspect he knows that.

Everyone else please start spewing town so we can wrap this one up with minimal complications.

This is a searching for town cred statement.

Which part is searching for town cred?

How is it searching for town cred?

What conclusions have you drawn from this?

[Blair]

Hypothesis: Puppy is not explaining why he took his vote out of play because he knows the more times I ask the more petty it will sound as the game progresses.

Little does he know I do not fear looking petty!

This is tunneling but for now i think it's town tunneling

Think my answer was pretty clear, Not sure what you don't get about it. Why would leave a vote on Quick when i got an answer i liked?

if you think this is not an answer, then i will ignore the rest of this conversation because it's not going any where.

Here's the progression:

Puppy votes for someone

Puppy later moves that vote to Quick in order to pressure him to answer a question

Puppy then both loves and hates Quick's answers, and unvotes

I'm asking why you were comfortable putting your vote in play prior to asking Quick a question but not after.

[Blair]

FoS on Atarashi is fair because I am EXTREMELY susceptible to buddying and I've played with Atarashi before so I suspect he knows that.

Everyone else please start spewing town so we can wrap this one up with minimal complications.

This is a searching for town cred statement.

Which part is searching for town cred?

How is it searching for town cred?

What conclusions have you drawn from this?

which part do you think is searching for town cred? Town cred is given not asked for so asking for it is generally bad.

I would contend I wasn't asking for town cred, so my answer would be "no part."

You didn't really address the first two questions at all, for what it's worth.

[Blair]

If votato's vote(71) was L1 then your vote(63) would be L2 if you were the vote before that. I'm not going to repeat my objection.

So you're saying

from Atarashi's perspective

he was near the end of the wagon?

[Blair]

So I should have asked myself to spew town as well?

I'm not really following. (Also, THAT definitely would be asking for town cred)

[Blair]

A helpful note: if you're going to be trying to gauge someone's reactions to something, telling them that you're doing so usually muddies the results.

I find being upfront actually clears most of the WIFOM out of the room.

[Blair]

I asked everyone else on the town team to make themselves obvious and not bury themselves in weird gambits that complicate the game state. It was also, I think, pretty clearly tongue-in-cheek, so I'm kind of wondering if we're both operating in good faith here.

P-edit: @NPOM

[Blair]

A helpful note: if you're going to be trying to gauge someone's reactions to something, telling them that you're doing so usually muddies the results.

I find being upfront actually clears most of the WIFOM out of the room.

I'm not sure I agree with that. I would say that it just leads to different kinds of WIFOM, but we can table that theory conversation for endgame after we win.

I agree, it's neither the time nor place, but allow me one example:

I pepper my posts with lots of blustery, over-confident, vibrant rhetoric because the way people respond to that rhetoric tells me something about their personality that I find really helpful in sorting them later in the game. Vibrant rhetoric is, after all, easy to take out of context, misrepresent, and pick apart. I like to learn early in the game which players reach for low hanging fruit by force of habit in early game, because the people who don't do it in early game but do at convenient moments in late game have a funny way of flipping scum.

Now I've explained it, but I don't expect the explanation to make it any less helpful to me.

[Blair]

Light townread on Atarashi for that post.

[Blair]

I don't see why scum!Atarashi would ask for anyone to take a vague statement that could have been addressing several people and ask for it to be clarified that it was directed at him.

[Blair]

The safe play for scum would have been to leave his vague statement alone and let everyone misunderstand it, rather than making a criticism of yourself focal for everyone.

If you're scum, that was sloppy. If you're town, you were trying to nail down a more specific stance from him.

P-edit: @Atarashi

[Blair]

I don't see why scum!Atarashi would ask for anyone to take a vague statement that could have been addressing several people and ask for it to be clarified that it was directed at him.

He's an egotist?

Could be. Is that your impression of him thus far?

[Blair]

My gut is that NPOM v Atarashi is TvT. Neither of them seem disingenuous to me.

P-edit: What are your thoughts on Puppy, Quick? I doubt you'd be partner-hunting him if you didn't have at least a slight scumread on him.

[Blair]

I assumed it was based on him because you had pronounced a slight townread on me moments prior.

Puppy says he knows me, I am pretty clearly confused by that and he still hasn't answered where he knows me from. I haven't pressed the matter because it doesn't really matter in the context of this game.

P-edit: I think he made a shaky argument, based on an assumption of your mindset from posts you made where you misunderstood the wagon-state, and now you're both digging your heels in but there's no juice behind it because you both know it's pretty weak all around.

[Blair]

I'm more interested in your post-vote behavior than the actual vote itself.

Can you elaborate on this, please?

[Blair]

Scumhunting is one of the better ways to deflect attacks off oneself, do you believe Atarashi is the sort of player who panics as scum under the pressure of a couple votes in the first six hours of Day 1 and begins flailing?

I suspect he's tunneling because he feels the argument against him is so outrageous that he actually believes demonstrating that outrage

does

constitute scumhunting.

[Blair]

Oof, now that's a low blow.

Complaining continously about something is the surest way to make sure it never goes away.

[Blair]

VOTE: votato

Sheep me and I will shepherd, nobody is on a wagon as good as this one

These are two weak tells, and they don't match. I think I've caught you pretending to scum humt

Are you confident you have a large enough sample size to conclude that Votato only pretends to scum hunt as scum?

[Blair]

I had Votato in my low hanging fruit farmer pile as null.

[Blair]

Honestly nothing has really caught my eye for a while now, starting to wonder if most of the scum aren't talking right now.

[Blair]

I had Votato in my low hanging fruit farmer pile as null.

Reason or gut?

When I look through his ISO, I see him jumping on lots of easy "gotchas" in all directions, all the way back to RVS, so I don't think him pushing two weak scumtells that don't fit together especially well in this particular case means he's up to something, so to speak - I think it's just how he interacts with the thread.

[Blair]

Ok, so... I antagonized him in 258 and 259 and he chose to see past that and agree with a more nuanced interpretation of what I said as a defense of himself.

Honestly, I expected him to lash out at me the way he lashed out at Puppy.

VOTE: Votato

Now that you've demonstrated you only reach for low hanging fruit sometimes, I'm liking Puppy's case more.

Thoughts?

[Blair]

You'll need to provide it if you actually want other people to vote with you.

Since you didn't, I'm far more interested in why that is than anything else.

[Blair]

Ok, so... I antagonized him in 258 and 259 and he chose to see past that and agree with a more nuanced interpretation of what I said as a defense of himself.

Honestly, I expected him to lash out at me the way he lashed out at Puppy.

I personally missed the bite of #258 and saw it as straight-faced the first time I read it, what was your thought process behind thinking he'd attack you for it?
I think votato's playing objectively a bit badly but I don't see it as more likely to come from scum than town, the 'flailing' just seems like him being irritated and reacting to Puppy's vote.

When puppy called him scum for pretending to scumhunt, his response was "fuck off!"

So I expected something not terribly different from that when I insinuated that he might just be town pretending to scumhunt.

The fact that the dig was present in both cases, with the only real difference being that I called it null (which is actually more insulting, townies who pretend to scumhunt are not exactly paragons of skill) made the different reactions intriguing to me.

I think it's fair to infer he made a conscious decision here to look past the dig specifically because I was defending him. Which makes Puppy's case that he is reaching selectively, rather than as a matter of playstyle, more compelling.

[Blair]

I subscribe to the bizarre notion that I can hold opinions now and actually adjust them later as the game progresses and I acquire new information.

You seem to be implying that we shouldn't be making any serious pushes now because we don't have enough information yet. I am sympathetic to that view, because we certainly don't have much information yet, but it's a bit of a catch-22 situation because... we need the serious pushes to elicit the serious reactions that procure the information we need to make more serious pushes in the first place.

So unless you're suggesting we wait until Day 2 and hope there are power roles that can solve for us, I'm going to carry on.

[Blair]

I am afraid I cannot summon the energy to multi-quote back at you right now, so... [sarcasm]

Pot, kettle calling!

[Blair]

Feel free to explain how they were all terrible any time the motivation grips you.

[Blair]

Quick, it would be enormously helpful if you would spend less time trying to cultivate your "WoOoOo I'm SuCh A mYsTeRiOuS eNiGmA" meta for future games and more time trying to help us find scum in this one.

[Blair]

It's amusing that Blair has different levels of helpfulness.

I suppose you're referring to my "enormously helpful" comment?

I find it equally amusing that other people might not.

[Blair]

unvote

Vote: Blair

VOTE: Blair

I would love to see Blair Tunnel this about now.

unvote

Vote: Blair

eggs, plain

Both of you: what votato said

Mine had a double meaning.

Disagree?

yep!

Okay, well Blair seems LAMIST to me this game so far.

See! U could have started with this instead of being coy and mysterious about it

i think u want to be all tough and macho and gruff and cool. it's ok, we're having fun too!

I've been coy and mysterious from the beginning boo.

Feel free to explain how they were all terrible any time the motivation grips you.

Secret and shadow are my worlds.

I am not trying to be cryptic

VOTE: Quick

I was null reading it as an intentional playstyle thing until you claimed it wasn't.

[Blair]

I say votato is Town and you vot me? Is this for real?

Your reading comprehension is definitely better than this.

[Blair]

I say votato is Town and you vot me? Is this for real?

Your reading comprehension is definitely better than this.

Just stating FACTS, Blair. FACTS.

VOTE: Quick

I was null reading it as an intentional playstyle thing until you claimed it wasn't.

That was enough to override your vote on votato? How come?

I don't like it when people lie. Especially about themselves.

Lynch All Liars tends to hit scum at a higher rate than my confidence in any of my scumreads right now.

Votato shifted to my null column as he interacted with his wagon.

[Blair]

Please prove I lied...?

You are welcome to read 344 again. I don't really expect you to convince you that you are scum, though.

Everyone else who reads it should see pretty clearly what I'm talking about.

[Blair]

"Is this for real" is not a valid question worth answering when the "this" in question is a case that I did not make.

I didn't vote for you for saying Votato is Town. So no, that is not for real.

[Blair]

Referring to my previous post, by number, where I explicitly displayed the lie in question is the exact opposite of "cryptic."

[Blair]

Which one, specifically, was the joke?

They definitely weren't all jokes, because some of them were your specific (and only) answers to direct questions.

[Blair]

By the way, "You can't prove it!" is not exactly the honest man's anthem.

[Blair]

By the way, "You can't prove it!" is not exactly the honest man's anthem.

can you prove it?

344

[Blair]

I know what Blair is claiming. It's just an excuse to OMGUS tbh.

It's interesting to me how you knew what I was claiming yet chose to blatantly misrepresent it as something else ("You're voting me for townreading votato? omg is this real?")

But also it is the most Stereoquickipal behavior I've ever seen. It's one of his top 3 schticks to aggressively misinterpret someone and then make a whole truck load of posts with that misinterpretation as the premise.

I find that schtick violently anti-town, and that's being generous.

What are the other two schticks? I do not wish to be caught unawares.

[Blair]

Quick, bruh, u definiteyl know exactly what u did and how u contradicted urself

Blair's vote is lame imo, "Lynch all liars" is lame in this context, but u did it to urself and u have to know that

So did u do a reaction test? Because if u just think it's OMGUS then it's just null to u right? So why keep making a thing about something that's null?

If people cannot read my jokes as jokes then I am pretty sure reacting to them is Scummy - especially when you think I am Scum for lying. I don't buy that Blair actually thought I was lying for a second. That's the problem and that's why it's OMGUS.

If they were jokes, then why didn't you double back later and provide non-joke answers to those questions?

[Blair]

... The posts that I'm calling lies...

... were responses to direct questions people asked you...

.. you claim your answers were jokes now...

... so why didn't you ever answer those questions sincerely...?

I sincerely hope that clears up your evident confusion.

[Blair]

Your non-answer is noted.

I am reading Nauci's posts, but it's just meta info on your playstyle. It's helpful, but meta is mostly garbage. If your meta is violently anti-town, that doesn't really persuade me to keep you around anyway.

[Blair]

If your meta is violently anti-town, that doesn't really persuade me to keep you around anyway.

okay that's fair but can it persuade you into pursuing investigations into things that are less shallow and more productive instead of litigating "Quick sometimes says he's mysterious and sometimes admits he's not intentionally mysterious" ad nauseum

Digging deeper was my intention, but now I fear this schtick is going to continue to influence all of his posts for the rest of the game. It isn't looking like there will ever be anything deeper to look at (short of a claim or investigative result).

If he'd cut it out, quit being deliberately obtuse and obscure, I could dig deeper. Right now, I'm digging as deep as his posts allow.

[Blair]

Your non-answer is noted.

I am reading Nauci's posts, but it's just meta info on your playstyle. It's helpful, but meta is mostly garbage. If your meta is violently anti-town, that doesn't really persuade me to keep you around anyway.

What part of my play is Anti-Town? Is it Anti-Town to get people to think about what I am saying?

The part where you deliberately misinterpreted my case (you have since admitted you knew what I meant) and then unleashed a smokescreen flurry of posts based on that false premise.

[Blair]

Blair, why does Quick's surface-level-contradiction make you think that it's more important to vote Lynch All Liars than to keep pressure on votato? Can you explain why votato's interactions with his wagon reduce your scum read of him by so much? Do you no longer agree with Puppy's assessment of his "scum hunting"? What did you think of my reason for voting votato?

1. It's not just his contradiction, it's how he's handling the wagon as well.

2. Votato sounds like he genuinely believes he is scumhunting.

3. I always agreed (and still do) with Puppy that Votata looked like he was fake scumhunting. I suspect he would be doing so as either alignment, however. ("Fake" here meaning "surface level stuff that doesn't really work well as a big picture but sounds good in a vacuum" - some people genuinely argue that way for some reason)

[Blair]

I anticipate Quick will now say "omg Blair is null reading Votato for the same reason that she is scumreading me!!!!one!!eleven!"

To which I riposte: The difference is I do not believe he is doing so on purpose.

[Blair]

You (by your own admission, knowingly) misrepresented the premise of a case on you. Denying the town accurate information is pro-scum.

[Blair]

Nauci then informed me that this is one of your top three schticks, which tells me I can expect more of this to come.

And since you told me Nauci's analysis of you was a "goldmine" I should not overlook, I have accepted the premise.

[Blair]

Nauci then informed me that this is one of your top three schticks, which tells me I can expect more of this to come.

And since you told me Nauci's analysis of you was a "goldmine" I should not overlook, I have accepted the premise.

But why is that SCUMMY tho?

Or you can completely stay in your "lynch all liars" quarters by yourself and everyone else can read me as Town. Now... Pay attention to what the Puppy says about me as well because they definitely have a clue and you don't.

If doing things that benefit the scum team does not qualify as scummy, then nothing short of a role flip qualifies as scummy.

You are basically asking me "Are you SUUUUURE scum would want to deny the town accurate information?"

Yes, I am reasonably sure of that.

[Blair]

Care to take a stab at who they are, NPOM?

[Blair]

[Blair]

What does sodding mean?

[Blair]

@Blair - Has your opinion on votato changed much in the last 5 pages or so? I'm not ULTRA-CONFIDENT but I like his recent posts.

He hasn't said very much in the past five pages, in fairness.

Nothing he said made much difference to me, except when he moved from pushing Atarashi (while making it clear he is still scumreading him) to push VP in 398. Atarashi hasn't said a word in a long time now, so it makes sense to me to apply pressure elsewhere - and I liked that he chose to do so while explicitly stating he was not abandoning his concerns with Atarashi.

Scum Votato could have quietly tunneled away on an inactive slot. Maybe he was anticipated getting called out for exactly that, but it felt more likely natural than not to me.

[Blair]

EBWOP: *anticipating

[Blair]

@EVERYONE

Flash-reads on Quick, please! For verily and forsooth doth I have need of them!

[Blair]

Can you distill the case on R2R down to its simplest terms? Don't bother with links or quotes, I see you have already provided them, and I will refer back to them if I need them.

Give me the Reader's Digest, 1-3 sentence summary please.

[Blair]

For example, mine for Quick is:

I initially thought Quick was being intentionally enigmatic and dodging questions as a matter of playstyle, but then he explicitly denied that he was doing so. When I voted for him for this apparent contradiction, he then claimed I was only voting for him for townreading Votato - something I never said, and he later admitted he knew that was not what I meant (another lie)! Liars who wilfully mislead the thread are more often scum than not.

P-edit: You keep ignoring the other two examples I gave. The ones where people asked you questions and you dodged them with similar antics.

[Blair]

208 288 292

These were my examples of Quick being intentionally cryptic, for reference.

307

This was Quick's denial of being intentionally cryptic, for reference.

Quick says one of those three was a joke, and continues to pretend that one is the only one I listed.

[Blair]

I have to keep referring back to my initial post and setting the record straight because Quick keeps intentionally misrepresenting it.

[Blair]

First he claimed I had voted him over a townread.

When that didn't take, he admitted he knew better.

Then he claimed it was an OMGUS.

Now he claims I just can't take a joke. (Note WAAAAAY back when I initially made this case one of my very first rebuttals to him was that not all three of those posts could be jokes, and he has never addressed this)

[Blair]

How about the way I play generates discussion. How does that sit with you?

All events generate discussion.

Pointless events (lying as town, which seems to be your defense) generate pointless discussion.

[Blair]

Quick, there is a supreme irony in this hour, at which you simultaneously claim that you behave this way on purpose to generate discussion while also lamenting how tiresome the very discussion is which you have generated.

[Blair]

Yes, upon review, it does appear R2R was probably lying. Thank you, VP.

I can only imagine one (not very persuasive) possible explanation if he really was confused, and I will not state it until I've heard an excuse of his own machinations.

I would happily lynch him if I cannot have Quick today, but it's far too early in the phase for me to give up and consolidate. I want to hear from the rest of the players on both Quick and R2R.

[Blair]

I am so over this rn. Keep making your "points" to be "right" IDGAF.

This is pretty textbook "You're right for the wrong reasons" righteous outrage, by the way.

(And meshes pretty well with his repeated "You can't PROVE it!!!!" riposte)

[Blair]

That is at least the second time you have proclaimed that every single person in this thread but me is townreading you.

I missed that development. Wishful thinking? Fake it until you make it? Or something else?

[Blair]

Your evasion is noted.

Let's put your claim to the test:

Is it true? Quick claims everyone but Blair is townreading him.

[Blair]

When did I do that? In either game? Maybe I'm not understanding what you mean by "too early to participate"

My read on GL is neutral right now. I think the way he's playing the game is good, but that makes it more difficult for me to be able to read him one way or the other. Need to look at him in iso at some point once there's more to go on.

The lying argument is fine, but this meta argument is terribad.

Here's something I found in one of his town games:

Day 1 is always bad for me. I usually cannot get a solid read on anyone because most cases are based on 1 thing that someone did. Therefore, I'm never confident in my reads and use a lot of FoS's instead of votes day 1 and overall don't come off as confident.

Surely you knew you could not make the argument "He did X in a scum game and he did X in this game" without also providing evidence that "he does not do X in town games"?

Turns out, he does.

[Blair]

I didn't see that post. It sounds like a town lurker looking for an excuse to lurk so when he is scum he has town lurking meta.

Oh come ON...

[Blair]

No, I think R2R lied about the vote count for some unknowable reason. I pretty plainly said I'd be okay with lynching him today if I can't have Quick.

But your meta argument is terrible.

[Blair]

Then just say "Lynch All Lurkers" and be done with it, because literally everyone is "aware" of the lurking "strategy." It's intuitive. It's human nature. "Can't get caught in a lie if I don't say anything." (See sig.)

There are lurkier lurkers than him, though. You've latched into this one for some reason.

[Blair]

[Blair]

@EVERYONE

Flash-reads on Quick, please! For verily and forsooth doth I have need of them!

Your evasion is noted.

Let's put your claim to the test:

Is it true? Quick claims everyone but Blair is townreading him.

Wasting away over here...

[Blair]

You understand it's only ironic in the alternate universe where I believe he is lying as town, right?

Why is it so hard for everyone but VP to answer a simple question? Why does no one want to share their reads on Quick?

[Blair]

General resistance to the Quick case is coming from the same body of players who are reluctant to share the current reads on him.

If this is supposed to make me feel less paranoid, it isn't working.

[Blair]

as a good player we really need your input, analysis, and pressure on the several other avenues of scum hunting that have been flying past your blinders kthxbai <3

I believe I have weighed in on all of the current avenues.

If I missed one, direct me to it and ask me about it.

[Blair]

So far: two reads and one "I can't read his alignment."

Thank you for your cooperation.

Are you confident that you will be able to read his alignment by LyLo?

[Blair]

He's implying he has a foolproof scumhunting script that he follows now regardless of alignment, so he's going to follow it and if he's scum he'll just end up outing all his partners and then himself!

And since he's just following his System™ there's nothing alignment indicative about any of his posts! Brilliant!

(Otherwise what was the point of sharing that in this context?)

[Blair]

Hey Puppy & Blair, how do you feel about VP B's contributions today? Primarily 517.

Overall, I liked most of it. He seemed to be putting in genuine effort to address all the different dynamics at play in the thread at the time.

I wasn't a fan of him stirring the WIFOM pot on his own push on Votato, that was the only part of that post where my alarm bells twitched.

[Blair]

Still like my vote!

I did state a case on NPOM but not one person commented on it. Not really sure why that is.

OK, I give up, I can't find it. Please link your NPOM case?

All I found was this:

This is more or less my reads at this point.

Atarashi
mav, Gamma, Puppy
Dany, VP, Blair
votato
NPOM
R2R

But I would like to see what R2R brings to the table.

So this is my vote after analysis (seperate from what I have said ITT).

VOTE: NPOM

Unless your NPOM case came before your NPOM vote. I didn't go back much farther than that.

[Blair]

Was that the case?

Yeah, that is incoherent, that's why no one commented on it. Please replace the "-1's" with your own thoughts.

[Blair]

Plus, it means either his SR on Blair dissopated (with no progression) and that he is ignoring the VP wagon while even saying the people voting there are likely Town -1. At what point does NPOM make the "logical" choice just vote VP here? Does he TR VP or is the Town -1 mean there is no possibility of Bus or what? Cuz I am pretty sure NPOM knows Scum would for sure sit on a Scum early game if they don't intend to be active.

The sentence structure is botched as well, which would normally feel like a petty objection, but here it is actually obstructing understanding.

I'm trying really hard to put my "Nice Blair" hat on here and help you articulate this, I'm just not sure where to begin. That "either," for instance, in the first sentence: Is that vestigial? (It feels like a relic of an earlier, edited version of the sentence)

[Blair]

A) Lurking is scummy.

B) R2R was heavy lurking.

C) R2R has meta of lurking as scum and crying foul when caught.

D) Lurking and then hyperposting when wagoned is scummy.

E) R2R has not been actively scumhunting since coming out of lurktirement.

F) When my reasoning was questioned, he said something like "I'm done entertaining this line of thought." which sounds like he knows he's going to get lynched and doesn't want to implicate his scumbuddies.

A) Not really, at least not by itself.

B) I could be pedantic here and ask you to define "heavy" lurking when we're, what, two real life days into this game? But sure, he was lurking, it can be heavy if you want.

C) You have not demonstrated that he *only* lurks as scum, so this isn't a tell.

D) This one I would agree with to an extent, if only because it implies they were probably reading along the whole time while refraining from posting. I privately call this the "Bloody Mary" pattern. :p

E) I agree.

F) That's reading way too much into it, I suspect.

--

If I were to boil your case down to only the parts I would agree with, it would become:

He wasn't posting at all until we started talking about him, the he conveniently appeared to argue about it incessantly, but that's all he's doing - I don't see much scumhunting.

Is that fair?

[Blair]

I can go into further detail with this if I must.

Please don't. I would benefit more from the opposite: Please help me distill it.

If I am reading you correctly, you are saying NPOM is scummy because he was scumreading Atarashi and I in 253 (with R2R in his "not enough content" category), but moved his vote off of me onto R2R in 413 based on his assumption that there were lurk-scum voting for VP Baltar (427). You inferred from this vote switch that he was townreading me now, and he never explained this shift in his reads.

Is that correct?

If so, I would like NPOM to respond to that.

[Blair]

@Blair...

We totally smoked 'em.

Fine, but only because you pinky-promised you'd help us lynch scum even if you are scum!

VOTE: NPOM

The case being decent (and finally coherent) didn't hurt, either. Even if he was null reading me at that point, why move your vote off of a null read on to a random "one of these three is probably scum, I guess this one will do"?

NPOM, you are welcome to commence flailing in abject terror and/or despair. I'm not fussy.

[Blair]

EBWOP: mavs' vote didn't show up for me in the preview window.

I believe that is L-2

[Blair]

@ready2rock: why do you feel Atarashi is town?

This question = quality content

Your Atarashi read is dramatically different from pretty much everyone else's - please expound.

[Blair]

NPOM, you are welcome to commence flailing in abject terror and/or despair. I'm not fussy.

[Blair]

Forsooth, methinks he hath chosen despair.

[Blair]

But hey, if you want to lynch someone based on an OMGUS then be my guest.

Ah, there's the other one.

[Blair]

That wasn't exactly the crux of his argument, though.

... ugh, don't do that. Don't make me defend Quick!

[Blair]

Can someone explain to me why scum would want to hop off of voting for a player that they know to be town

Here's what Quick originally said:

IF that's the case, then NPOM me KNOWS Blair is Town. But again, the huge flaming giant dumpster fire here is that HE HAD NO PROGRESSION ON BLAIR.

Translation:

"NPOM is fake scumhunting. He believes he has naturally progressed from a scumread on Blair to a townread on Blair. However, there does not appear to have been any actually in-game reason for this shift to occur! Therefore, I (Quick) have concluded that this was a slip - NPOM thought he was faithfully scumhunting and his townread on Blair developed naturally but it was actually the product of a subconscious townread on Blair (because NPOM is scum and knows who is and isn't town), that's why there was no in-game explanation for the read shift."

In short: scum!NPOM thought that town!NPOM would be townreading Blair, so he adjusted his reads and moved his vote, but there wasn't actually a good reason to adjust his read at the time - because it was a subconscious slip.

Yeah, no matter how I try to put it this one is hard to distill down to bite-sized portions but the logic is in there.

[Blair]

What makes you think that NPOM's vote was a random "one of these three is probably scum, I guess this one will do"?

I went back a few pages from his r2r vote and didn't see something like that, and r2r had posted in between whatever NPOM's last post before the vote was and NPOM's r2r vote. I don't really like that it feels like you're pushing that together to make the case better when as far as I can tell the vote and the 'random 3' likely wasn't why NPOM actually voted r2r.

Because that's the only justification he gave at the time (427). It's nice that you think he had some other reason, but he didn't articulate one.

Much later, of course, he put forth that terribad lurk-meta argument and argued that R2R was lurking until the wagon on him and then started posting a lot - but that argument is reliant on the wagon already being there and R2R reacting to it, so I (pretty reasonably, I think) assumed this wasn't NPOM's reasoning at the time of his vote (unless NPOM is a time traveler?)

If NPOM had some secret, unstated reason for voting for R2R at the time, why do you think he withheld it in favor of "One of these three is scum"? And why do you think I should have read his mind and known his reason was something other than what he said it was?

[Blair]

This is NPOM's progression on R2R:

NoPowerOverMe
CantLynchAPuppy
Quick
Nauci

VP Baltar
votato

Atarashi
Blair

not enough content: iDannyboy, Gammagooey, ready2rock, mavsfan, PeterPan

There were about five posts of his between the above and the below, but they were all about me, not R2R.

VOTE: ready2rock

Note:

This post was edited to facilitate automated vote counting; the unedited original is quoted below this comment. - Um

vote r2r

Vpb is now a town read.

I think some three of the most non active people voting baltar shows that he is town

I think some three of the most non active people voting baltar shows that he is town

Are you implying that the quiet people are all scum together, or is there some other logic to your assessment?

I'm saying there is more likely scum on the wagon than not.

There is probably scum on both wagons.

Rtr Danny and Atari if I had to guess at this point.

Gamma, you went back and read this and determined that I missed the real reason for NPOM's R2R vote. Where, exactly, have I overlooked it?

[Blair]

I still think it makes more sense that he'd be voting r2r for the two posts r2r made literally right before NPOM voted him (#403 and #409

I mean... in 403 he said he was considering voting for VP and in 409 he did vote for VP.

Which brings us right back to, "One of the three people voting for VP is scum," so that kind of feels like a distinction without a difference?

[Blair]

After he voted for R2R, Quick voted for NPOM and said "his reads make no sense!"

NPOM responded to that, first sarcastically, then seriously with 427. You think he had a different reason than the one given in 427 but he withheld it until now?

I'm all for pressing more information out of NPOM but there is pretty much zero chance that if he produces a new reason 250 posts later anyone is going to believe it.

I'm sure you realize by now that I'm reading this as bus-avoidance.

[Blair]

I still like my votato case, but we have some time and I want to try something else on for a moment

VOTE: ready2rock

[Blair]

I would hope actual town could see that I and most likely Nauci are town.

actual town could see that I

actual town could see

that I

[Blair]

Puppy! Be a good boy and fetch Blair your read on Gamma!

[Blair]

Puppy! Be a good boy and fetch Blair your read on Gamma!

hard null. i keep waiting for him to appear with more content and he hasn't. if i could strap one poster into the clockwork orange brainwash chair and force them to watch the whole thread, it'd be him

Really? Nothing at all, one way or the other?

Could you give these a good sniff? 686 694 697

[Blair]

- Quick's "system to destroy scum" is, um, problematic at best.... mostly because it's far too complex to consistently yield anything coherent. After a quick scan, I couldn't tell you what the actual decision tree would be with such a system.

Blair's System To Destroy Scum™

1. Identify players who are actively trying to solve the game.

2. Identify players who do not appear to be actively solving the game, or who are actively or passively obstructing others from the same.

3. Vote for the players identified in #2.

4. Thoroughly explain your reasoning to the players you identified in #1, persuading them through wit, humor, and overwhelming charismatic charm to vote for the players identified in #2.

5. March steadfastly toward a town victory, hammering pro-scum and anti-town players with extreme prejudice.

6. Boost Townie morale with witty ripostes and dank memes.

7. Profit!*

* In the event that you have received a scum role pm, promptly forget that you have done so and act accordingly.

[Blair]

I've cased you with a slip

Which slip was it?

[Blair]

* In the event that you have received a scum role pm, promptly forget that you have done so and act accordingly.

are you saying even when you're scum you're trying to destroy scum

Obviously there's room for some nuance in there, but in general? Yes, of course, you can't run a very convincing scum-game otherwise.

There are no truly objective tells, so even when you're doing your very best you're going to hit town sometimes. There's no reason to build fake cases as scum when the real cases are wrong all the time anyway.

[Blair]

(The "need" to develop fake cases and reads is a side effect of hubris - you don't feel like you need this unless you genuinely believe your real reads would reliably cost you the game as scum)

[Blair]

Ah ok, that one.

I was afraid you had a juicy new one you were holding out on!

[Blair]

Welcome, Dunnstral!

Mind filling us in real quick on what style of catch-up we can expect from you as a replacement?

[Blair]

When you get to your reread, I would request that you try to develop reads on Quick and Gamma, as I have struggled to extract reads on these two players from others.

[Blair]

Quick's sure fire determinations based on absolutely nothing are getting a little tiresome.

Quick likes to use the throw crap on the wall and see what sticks theory.

Don't worry Nauci the more Quick fires at you it just makes you look more towny.

Quick decides that someone is scummy by some random method and then makes up reasons in his head that noone else understands.

The thought hasn't occured to you that VP, Nauci and I could all be town?

Town unite!

VOTE: ready2rock

Anything Quick says to do you should do the exact opposite. Serious.

Hi Dunnstral, hope you are adept in IdentifyingBadWagons TM.

Quick has a strong case of self fufilling prophecy. Nothing he says is true he just wants it to be true so he gets credit for something that won't happen.

Pretty much, just fufilling in his own mind.

[Blair]

Feel free to start any time.

[Blair]

Feel free to start townhunting any time, too.

[Blair]

I'm just having a hard time with the argument that we should hold off on hammering you to allow time for more discussion when the above seems to be the type of discussion you are interested in propagating.

If you're town, please be more constructive.

If you're scum, feel free to hard claim and out your partners pl0x.

[Blair]

man, i was hoping after that atrocious hammer and missing the last few pages that i'd be nightkilled out of this game

i do want to get votato again, came into this thread two days ago to put my vote back there only to find the thread locked

any questions anyone had from yesterday that i missed, let me know and i'll answer

Thoughts:

1. Upon analysis, Gamma can talk more. Need to resolve this slot.

2. There is a lot of speculation about scum being on the NPOM wagon - which is fair, because more than half the game was on that wagon. Unless you think ALL the scum were on that wagon, however, we should probably be looking just as hard at the people who were off of it:

All seven voters from the NPOM wagon are alive today, only four of the people who were off of that wagon are alive today.

I like my odds better hunting in the group of four than the group of seven today. I do not believe it is likely that the entire scum team jumped on the Day 1 mislynch together.

That leaves at least one scum in here:

Gammagooey
VP Baltar
CantLynchAPuppy
iDanyboy

Out of that group, we can hunt for people who seemed to avoid the wagon in anticipation of a town flip. My best guesses there are Gamma and Puppy.

Gamma seemed to be reaching really hard to find a defense of NPOM where there wasn't one in their back and forth with me shortly before the lynch (not saying there was no good defense of NPOM, but the one Gamma chose fell apart upon inspection - even NPOM didn't go along with it). Gamma had very few posts during Day 1, and this awkward conversation made up about 30% of them.

Puppy swooped in to support a counterwagon with a pretty flimsy post shortly before the lynch as well.

Of those two, Gamma seems more likely to flip scum to me.

VOTE: Gammagooey

[Blair]

Oh, didn't mean to quote Puppy in that post, but I did want to point out how awful that post was. Is anybody buying that first line?

[Blair]

Blair’s wagon theory does make sense but I would pursue Puppy over GammaGooey here.

Why?

[Blair]

You also forgot to explain it.

[Blair]

R2R

- I’ve gotta go back and reread the interaction between him and NPOM and see if I think this is TvT. I’m leaning a vote here right now with the flip of NPOM. The reason I won’t is cause I don’t trust my reads right now

[Blair]

[Blair]

"Ok, nobody respond to anything Blair says and mysteriously oppose a Gamma wagon without explanation." - A voice everybody but me can hear, apparently

[Blair]

I do think that he's wrong about you being scum but I pretty strongly think that he's town here

This is an interesting post!

I double checked Puppy's ISO because this statement confused me. It turns out,

Puppy never said he was scumreading Mavs.

Which means one of two things:

1. Gamma is a fortune teller, and knew Puppy would be scumreading Mavs soon. (there is a sub-section of this option where Gamma is a very bad fortune teller and is wrong about this)

2. Gamma has a good reason to believe Puppy should be scumreading Mavs soon.

I like this second option, because the one thing I found in Puppy's ISO to suggest he might be open to scumreading Mavs was when Puppy said the Nauci/Mavs interaction felt "off" and might not be TvT.

That was Day 1, though, before Nauci flipped.

So Puppy says Nauci/Mavs doesn't look TvT, and then Nauci is killed for no apparent reason and flips Town. Then Gamma stumbles in and announces Puppy's scumread before Puppy says anything about it.

[Blair]

Blair, how sure did you feel on your NPOM vote yesterday?

This seems like a question you should have been asking people yesterday? I'm not sure what valuable information you expect to get from asking people to elaborate on their scumreads on a flipped player.

But what the heck, I'll answer anyway: I felt very confident that NPOM was scum, or else so anti-town that he was an acceptable loss. I felt this way because of his strange behavior as the wagon approached hammer, which felt like either caught scum trolling the thread, or else someone not even remotely attempting to solve the game anymore.

I was disappointed by the flip, but catching scum day 1 isn't common enough for me to have been utterly shocked to my core.

[Blair]

@Gamma

You were pretty plainly talking to Votato about Puppy.

[Blair]

I am ok with R2R wagon, but i also like puppies. gamma is towny to me. i suppose VOTE: puppy

I dunno if I've mentioned it since near the start of day 1 but Puppy's felt really open about his reads and what he thinks about other people's opinions and I think that's very likely to come from town - like pulling this from his iso for example

Votato I lean town. I’m more torn on r2r/NPOM and think it’s likely one of them is scum. If both NPOM and votato are scum together they did one helluva convincing job since the early stages when Atarashi was still around. So I think if you wanted to suspect both, sure, but to suspect them both at the same time the way Nauci did it, no. I don’t really buy that.

Thinking votato is scum would be accepting that NPOM is town and vice versa.

I think Blair’s pursuit of Quick was misguided and off a premise that, sure, Quick had two contradictory thoughts of him being mysterious vs him being upfront, but I think that isn’t the greatest reasoning. It’s just Quick being Quick. But she has offered opinions outside of that conflict where I feel scum would naturally just tunnel in that situation and have no real motivation to move off or look towards other players. So sure, town for me rn.

i don't get how r2r fits into this

so u think nauci's progression doesn't make sense because she thinks npom/votato are scum, and there's no way they could both be scum, and this should be obvious to nauci. ok, with u so far

but now you say that votato is lean town, which means by your own logic that NPOM has to be scum, right? (see bolded.) so why are you torn on r2r/NPOM, isn't NPOM already looking scum to you just from votato/NPOM? Your process makes it look like Nauci is scummy for trying to have it both ways, but you look just as uncertain here

Like he's actively trying to figure out what people are thinking and why

I do think that he's wrong about you being scum but I pretty strongly think that he's town here

[Blair]

You would not BELIEVE how long this post was about to be before I finally got what you were saying. For some unknowable reason, I did initially think you were talking to mavs.

[Blair]

Quick, if Gamma is your top townread you are absolutely going to have to actually explain that one.

[Blair]

They have a low number of posts but by the looks of it, they engage meaningfully with other people.

This merits top townread status?

[Blair]

He's saying, by the way you've described your system, it analyzes and draws conclusions from all the same variables that everyone else is trying to analyze and draw conclusions from.

Which is generally true.

I don't really want to talk about your system anymore to be honest, and I wish you'd quit referencing it. The system is designed by you and draws conclusions based on variables you decided to look for using the assumptions you gave it. So it's really not a system, it's just you. It's your thought process. So I'd rather talk to, and about, you than your "system." The latter irrationally absolves of responsibility for the reads you produce.

[Blair]

Way to contradict yourself in the same flipping post.

Way to miss the point of the flipping post:

So it's really not a system, it's just you. It's your thought process. So I'd rather talk to, and about, you than your "system." The latter irrationally absolves of responsibility for the reads you produce.

[Blair]

Quick was wrong D1

Are you going somewhere with that? If not, why bring it up?

Also, welcome. What style of catch-up can we expect from you?

[Blair]

I'm not discrediting you, I'm giving you agency.

If I were discrediting you, I would be voting for you.

[Blair]

This sounds more like wounded ego than a case, to me.

If I'm scum and want to get rid of you, but I'm not voting for you because I know I can never lynch you, then why aren't you dead?

I'm not scum and I'm not voting for you because we need to resolve Gamma today.

[Blair]

And let it be known: no one is talking about Dunn's hammer.

And let it be known: Quick didn't read the first page of the day.

that atrocious hammer

Dunnstral - I didn’t like the catch up and hammer. Read to me like a “sure, why not” vote. Reading the catch up, I couldn’t see conviction in a reason to hammer with the thought of NPOM flipping scum.

[Blair]

Gun to my head, if I had to solve right now it would be:

Gamma

+

Puppy

/Midway +

Mavs

/Atarashi/Quick

Bolds being my best guesses, sorted left to right by confidence both within each slot and overall.

The Mav read is my highest confidence for a third scum, but still isn't very high at all - and that's if there even are three scum.

The lurkers are basically just me accounting for the unknowable. We need more content from those slots to sort them.

[Blair]

I wouldn't call Votato a hard townread, but I am not scumreading him. I wish he would be a bit more vocal in his scumhunting, but he does not appear to be steering an agenda in the thread.

Also, votato cannot be Scum with Puppy

ASSUMING R2R is Scum means Gamma is NOT Scum and vice versa.

It's worth noting here that both of these actually fit my solve.

[Blair]

VP/votato
VP/Puppy
Gamma/R2R
Blair/Atarashi
Atarashi/Puppy

This also fits my solve.

You should vote Gamma with me.

[Blair]

I would but I am not SRing Gamma.

Care to review this exchange?

686 694 697

I keep asking people for thoughts on that.

[Blair]

I don't have any strong pairings with R2R. He could be scum, but not with that solve.

P-edit: @Mavs

[Blair]

Gamma's reasons for staying off the lynch are irrelevant because he was off the lynch?

[Blair]

I'm really trying to communicate with you here but you're being deliberately obtuse again.

I'll spell it out: It is my hypothesis that Gamma was avoiding the NPOM wagon because he knew it would flip Town, and those posts support that hypothesis because they represent a defense so flawed that even NPOM himself rejected them.

[Blair]

Consider this a trial-run of the Blair System™

The Blair System™ lynches Gammagooey Day 2. It's a good system. It has never failed.

The best thing about blindly following any system like BS™ is that you no longer have to trouble yourself with petty things like "reasons" or "explanations" you can just BS™ your way to endgame.

[Blair]

Sig bets were outlawed, so I'll just say regardless of how Gamma flips we both get to put this in our signatures:

The Blair System™ lynches Gammagooey Day 2. It's a good system. It has never failed.

[Blair]

In my view, VP Baltar and R2R are not scum together.

Quick, you didn't include that pairing in your "Not SvS" list - what am I missing?

[Blair]

In my view, VP Baltar and R2R are not scum together.

Quick, you didn't include that pairing in your "Not SvS" list - what am I missing?

By all means.. show me where R2R and VP are Not SvS.

Scum!VP does not jump into the middle of QuickVsBlair at 517 to hard-bus scum!R2R (who was only being voted by NPOM at the time), and then actively try to break up QuickVsBlair to make us engage with his hard-bus.

That would be a colossal unforced error. VP is basically the reason the R2R wagon even existed, and he pushed it hard. So hard, in fact, that it's still a wagon today.

If VP/R2R is a scum pair, then VP hard-bussed his partner into a viable lynch wagon, when his partner was previously only being voted for by the day's eventual lynch, and then

actively sought to break up a fight

between two other players in order to bring more focus onto his hard-bus.

[Blair]

In my view, VP Baltar and R2R are not scum together.

Quick, you didn't include that pairing in your "Not SvS" list - what am I missing?

By all means.. show me where R2R and VP are Not SvS.

Scum!VP does not jump into the middle of QuickVsBlair at 517 to hard-bus scum!R2R (who was only being voted by NPOM at the time), and then actively try to break up QuickVsBlair to make us engage with his hard-bus.

That would be a colossal unforced error. VP is basically the reason the R2R wagon even existed, and he pushed it hard. So hard, in fact, that it's still a wagon today.

If VP/R2R is a scum pair, then VP hard-bussed his partner into a viable lynch wagon, when his partner was previously only being voted for by the day's eventual lynch, and then

actively sought to break up a fight

between two other players in order to bring more focus onto his hard-bus.

It could very well be a bus. Why are you ruling that out?

It's not impossible, but as I've laid out in the above:

If that was a bus, it was extraordinarily reckless and unnecessary - VP seems fairly competent, so I doubt this was an unforced error from scum.

[Blair]

An excerpt from scum daychat in Quick's universe:

R2R

- This is great! Quick and Blair are drowning the thread in a fruitless debate!

VP

- Yeah, now would be a great time for me to bus you!

R2R

- Sure, we can put some distance between us! Just make sure you don't push it too hard, we don't want to steal the spotlight.

VP

- I was thinking I'd pound out some wallposts calling you a blatant liar and detailing all the scummy things you've done.

R2R

- Huh... yeah, I guess, if you think it's really necessary to put as much distance between us as possible. Just make sure you don't overshadow the Blair/Quick fight.

VP

- I was actually thinking I'd try my best to shut that whole fight down, actually, and push everybody to focus extra hard on how scummy you are.

R2R

- Okayyyy... but only for a little while, right? I mean, only NPOM is voting for me now so I should be pretty safe from a strong push as long as it's short-lived.

VP

- I figured I'd just keep pushing this non-stop until you're lynched! If you aren't lynched today I'll keep pushing it tomorrow, too!

R2R

- ... I hate you.

[Blair]

Gamma.

I want you to address Gamma.

With a vote, preferably.

[Blair]

This is why:

There is a lot of speculation about scum being on the NPOM wagon - which is fair, because more than half the game was on that wagon. Unless you think ALL the scum were on that wagon, however, we should probably be looking just as hard at the people who were off of it:

All seven voters from the NPOM wagon are alive today, only four of the people who were off of that wagon are alive today.

I like my odds better hunting in the group of four than the group of seven today. I do not believe it is likely that the entire scum team jumped on the Day 1 mislynch together.

That leaves at least one scum in here:

Gammagooey
VP Baltar
CantLynchAPuppy
iDanyboy

Out of that group, we can hunt for people who seemed to avoid the wagon in anticipation of a town flip. My best guesses there are Gamma and Puppy.

Gamma seemed to be reaching really hard to find a defense of NPOM where there wasn't one in their back and forth with me shortly before the lynch (not saying there was no good defense of NPOM, but the one Gamma chose fell apart upon inspection - even NPOM didn't go along with it). Gamma had very few posts during Day 1, and this awkward conversation made up about 30% of them.

Puppy swooped in to support a counterwagon with a pretty flimsy post shortly before the lynch as well.

Of those two, Gamma seems more likely to flip scum to me.

VOTE: Gammagooey

[Blair]

Be less convincing, then you will sheep me.

Got it.

[Blair]

Consider this a trial-run of the Blair System™

The Blair System™ lynches Gammagooey Day 2. It's a good system. It has never failed.

The best thing about blindly following any system like BS™ is that you no longer have to trouble yourself with petty things like "reasons" or "explanations" you can just BS™ your way to endgame.

[Blair]

In this thread: people saying my hammer was bad, but when quick was saying to hammer the guy yesterday they didn't comment on that at all

In this case, a Night 4 Vigilante claim probably wouldn't have changed anything, but generally we tend to frown on hammers that aren't preceded by stated intent and an opportunity for the wagonee to claim.

[Blair]

I really tried to work myself up to counterclaim Moderator with a guilty on Nauci, but I just can't do it, Ready2Rock.

You're just going to have to sheep me even though you think I am making sense. I am sorry to have failed you.

[Blair]

@Quick/Blair: was there anything deeper behind your motivation to push each other so much aside from your suspicion of each other? And if so, was there anything you got out of it?

I hoped to glean something from the thread's reaction - which side others would take, who would try to distract from or amplify it, etc.

Most people just whined about it and skipped most of our posts, and I still haven't made up my mind for sure on what that might mean. It was... off, somehow.

I was also scumreading Quick, though, so I wouldn't call it "fake" like Dunn is suggesting.

[Blair]

I find it easiest to sort players through extending 1:1 interactions. I also find those interactions fun and engaging, much to the chagrin of the rest of the thread.

I'll definitely do it a few more times before this game concludes.

[Blair]

Hot Take: Scum!Blair would have *actually* said "You are never going to catch me"

[Blair]

(Kind of like Quick saying he is unlynchable every ten pages)

[Blair]

Which part do you disagree with?

And what agenda do you believe I have?

(Hint: My agenda is to lynch Gamma)

[Blair]

Which part do you disagree with?

And what agenda do you believe I have?

(Hint: My agenda is to lynch Gamma)

I thought your agenda was to "sort" Gamma. It's a lynch now? Why? I think your reasons for wanting to lynch there are bad and you'd be better off on the R2R wagon I think.

This is a distinction without a difference. I do not vote for people I am not willing to lynch.

Do you?

[Blair]

Are you implying I was not willing to lynch NPOM?

Good luck defending that one.

There are many posts that demonstrate my interest in lynching NPOM, but if I had to single out the clearest one - it would be the one you said you hated when you initially voted for me today.

It's interesting that you thought my NPOM push was fake and my vote was gross but... decided not to mention it or imply it at all until Day 2?

[Blair]

In the context of a vote, what on EARTH does "conviction" mean other than "to lynch"?

[Blair]

Quick, buddy, this is how I know you didn't double back and check what post I was referring to.

If you had, you would know why I wanted to lynch NPOM.

[Blair]

Here you go, Midwaybear:

@Blair...

We totally smoked 'em.

Fine, but only because you pinky-promised you'd help us lynch scum even if you are scum!

VOTE: NPOM

The case being decent (and finally coherent) didn't hurt, either. Even if he was null reading me at that point, why move your vote off of a null read on to a random "one of these three is probably scum, I guess this one will do"?

NPOM, you are welcome to commence flailing in abject terror and/or despair. I'm not fussy.

[Blair]

That is the moment I moved my vote off of Quick onto NPOM.

I literally said exactly why I was doing it, but Quick wants to play dumb for some reason.

I wanted to flip NPOM because he was either scum or town who isn't scumhunting - but mostly

I wanted to flip NPOM to sort Quick.

P-edit: You're deliberately trimming out the multiple posts in which I explained your case to other players. (Why would I do that, thus helping your wagon, if I didn't believe in it? Especially if it puts a target on me when NPOM flips town, which I would know if I were scum?)

[Blair]

You're reading my posts to respond, instead of reading them to understand.

Scroll up and reread them, I have already addressed what you are saying.

I can spell it out more plainly if you really want me to, but it feels condescending at this point.

[Blair]

1. Day 1 Blair was scumreading Quick

2. Blair observed Quick has an enormous ego and claims to follow a brilliant "scumhunting system" to the letter, regardless of alignment, that "definitely works"

3. Blair decided that Quick actually believed this.

4. Blair inferred that scum!Quick believed town!Quick would nail scum.

5. Blair concluded that if Quick is town, NPOM is a decent enough Day 1 lynch who might flip scum and was definitely anti-town, but if Quick was scum he was probably bussing because

brilliantly catching scum with great confidence

is what scum!Quick believed town!Quick would be doing.

6. Blair doesn't look a gift horse in the mouth and knows a win/win when she sees one, so she helps push the NPOM wagon.

[Blair]

That post from Puppy still looks bad post-lynch, Quick. It is amazing to me that you would disagree.

[Blair]

You don't believe that scum try to distance themselves from wagons that are about to roll into mislynches?

[Blair]

I've caught many scum and solved many games by "hunting among the naysayers," so to speak.

[Blair]

You've literally watched me hunt among Day 1 mislynch naysayers as town before, Quick. It just occurred to me we can finally talk about that game.

So why pretend this is weird or scummy somehow now?

[Blair]

that isn't always true though

Well of course not.

But Quick is implying it is unheard of, by pretending he doesn't understand how it could still look bad.

[Blair]

Many people have townread Puppy, yes.

I haven't, though. What do you mean by that?

[Blair]

like maybe puppy wasn't distancing, but actually wanted to pressure r2r

Do you find "We have some time and I want to try something else for a moment" particularly... pressuring?

[Blair]

like why is she acknowledging r2r is prob scum and then pivoting to a Gamma case...huh?

There are really only two explanations:

1. Gamma is town; Blair is scum with Ready2Rock

2. Blair feels more confident in her Gamma read.

Occam's Razor might be prudent here.

[Blair]

(If anyone thinks I'm scum on a go nowhere wagon, please reaction test me by sheeping me and running the Gamma wagon to L-1)

Quick, you've done it wrong. When you quote a giant wall post you're supposed to give your thoughts on it, THEN ask other people.

Since you didn't, I have no idea which part of it you're asking me about or why.

[Blair]

You're speaking in riddles again.

If you're town, ask your actual question so I can answer it.

If you're scum, spell it out so at least other people can understand it and sheep your wagon.

Either way, being enigmatic isn't the right move here, it's just annoying.

[Blair]

"This exists" was supposed to imply all of that?

[Blair]

I referenced VP's case *while talking to you* today discussing why I don't believe VP/R2R can be SvS.

Good luck pretending you forgot that conversation. It literally just happened.

[Blair]

Technically that's three questions.

1. Day 1 I was open to an R2R lynch, and said as much multiple times.

2. Yes, I said I agreed that it appeared he had lied about the vote count. See #1.

3. The case was strong enough for early Day 1, but we have significantly more information now and R2R's defense was the exact defense I referenced on Day 1 (when I said I could only think of one possible excuse), so I'm not sure if it was really a lie.

Do you realize how easy it is to play this little game you're playing? I can pluck things out of context and ask vague, leading questions, too. (Your ISO is rife with them, for instance you've stated a billion times today you believe the optimal lynch is someone you are not voting for)

I'm not doing it because it's not genuine scumhunting, and because today we are pushing Gamma.

[Blair]

Wow, you, like, totally stole Midway's 998.

[Blair]

This is a rare instance where someone blatantly admits they're counter-wagoning.

Yeah.

I'm not sure what to make of that, either.

[Blair]

Also, Midway didn't react at all to my vote on them or they went to sleep or something. It wasn't really doing anything.

You waited, like, what? An hour?

[Blair]

Happy birthday, by the way.

[Blair]

First of all, I wasn't being "dismissive" about your initial question, I was asking you what the purpose of the question was - because it is not generally helpful to reexamine scumreads on dead players.

As to Quick's ego, I do not believe that he "think

he could dupe the town into a mislynch." Quick doesn't seem very confident in his ability to persuade the rest of the players, he is just very confident in his ability to read players.

At the time that I stopped fighting with him and started explaining his NPOM case for him, the NPOM wagon hadn't picked up real steam yet.

Basically I was thinking "Quick may be setting himself up for a long bus, so whenever we do get around to flipping NPOM he can say 'I was right, my system has been saying NPOM is scum since Day!'"

So I helped push the wagon to get that out of the way and sorted. We may disagree on this bit, but the importance point here is that I believe: NPOM would not have been lynched yesterday if I had not decided to help Quick articulate his case.

As for me being snarky and/or dismissive - I mentioned I have a bad habit of that in my earliest posts in this game, and it is not alignment indicative. I'm working on it, because I know it makes people resentful.

P-edit: I'll ISO him and find the quote from him, but basically when I initially looked into the vote count after you said he was lying, I started scrolling and saw "two votes," then realized one of them was actually in a quote block and thought "whoops, that's one vote, actually." I kept scrolling to make sure the quoted vote was current, and it was, but guessed that R2R probably didn't do that diligence. That ended up being his explanation, and since his explanation matched my (unstated) explanation, I'm inclined to believe it.