The Newbie NewD3 stats thread (upd. 2020-05-20, 51g)

[callforjudgement]

This has been the case since Matrix6 (and possibly before, but I don't have the data on-hand for that). Personally, I might theorize that it an element across almost all micro setups.

There are three common town roles that become much more powerful with 1 scum left: Tracker, Roleblocker, Jailkeeper. (Follower does too, but it's less common; Motion Detector is also uncommon, and although it improves with 1 scum left, it improves to a lesser extent.)

Avoiding those roles entirely places a huge limit on your setup design abilities, especially if you want to keep the setup simple in other ways (e.g. avoiding modifiers). So Micros have a tendency to suffer from swing problems.

[callforjudgement]

Not entirely joking suggestion: 7:2 vanilla as the Newbie setup.

This was one of the possible subsetups in F11 (almost: scum had a roleblocker but it didn't do anything), and the observed 35% town winrate isn't ridiculously out of range, especially as it was in a more scumsided meta than today's.

(7:2 is easier for town to win than 11:2 in practice, incidentally, because scum are easier to lynch before the competent townies have been nightkiled, and there's less time for town to get demoralized by constantly missing.)

The main disadvantage I see is not teaching the new players nightplay, but I don't think the current ridiculously complex semi-opens do a good job of that anyway.