The Newbie NewD3 stats thread (upd. 2020-05-20, 51g)

[RadiantCowbells]

I will not claim that my setup was perfect.

I will however say that historical evidence showed that it would be balanced but due to improving town play relative to scum play that is no longer really a thing. As previously pointed out, the winrate in individual setups present in both matrix6 and newd3 have universally skewed their winrates towards town and the fakeclaim argument flatly does not apply to at least one (and I strongly dislike how it worked in practice, which was scum claiming doctor D1 and ICs very rarely explaining the situation properly and the game defaulting to not lynching them; seriously look back at Matrix6 and how often scum won by claiming doc and barely playing.)

I think NewD3 is more scum sided than Matrix6 was. I think the gap in observed winrate is due to a shift I have observed across social deduction sites where informed minorities are simply not winning very many games relative to how well they did in the past (ie, spies in Avalon 6P having a >50% winrate that is lower than it was a year ago is still a decline.)

The fact is a lot of these games are not being won by PRs. Scum lynches are happing incredibly disproportionately often on D1 and even the idea of what a town sweep is has changed. Games were describes as town sweeps in the past (2015) that were larges with two mislynches; there were a significant amount of games last year where every scum got consecutively lynches including in larges and sometimes with 0 useful PR results at all. As Ankamius/Alyssa said in a thread at some point this year the bar is just rising for towns.

I am not certain that giving towns less power than they reasonably should have to maintain a 50% winrate is the right answer, and I'm not certain that Skitter feeling like the game is an uphill battle would be a thing if being scum wasn't so oppressive in general at the moment. Even me and FL both lost scum games last year (ego dictates I cite major mod error etc etc) and we have both gone multiple past years undefeated.

I'll finish by again saying that I don't think my setup was perfect and it's not going to last forever but I think that this context might help to explain why the fence was constructed so you can decide whether or not to take it down.

[RadiantCowbells]

Oh, and at NSG for lecturing people on scum play!

Also people calling for 2 of 4... it has 1 stupid setup that scum are almost always going to win (Doc VT) and a bunch of setups more townsided than anything in NewD3 (basically anything else), so I am really curious what you see in it.