Newbie 2010: Pride Month | Game Over

[Nauci]

Aww I was hoping to get to play with both Elmo and Umlaut. Such is life.

Anyway hello everyone and happy pride month!

[Nauci]

Why are people voting Elmo and also can y'all unvote while I catch up? I promise to be caught up by 1 AM PST which is in 6 hours.

[Nauci]

There are enough first day replacements that I had to put up a sticky note in order to keep track D:

[Nauci]

Well I am extremely sure that I am, in fact, town, according to the role PM from Keyenpeydee.

I finally finished making dinner and just sat down, so let's figure out where things went wrong, and lynch scum instead of town, okay?

[Nauci]

I'm like 95% sure it is, but Hoctac trained me not to believe anything he said.

I don't understand any of these posts about "hoctac"

Umlaut pls explain

[Nauci]

@Elmo: I wouldn’t say I’m getting defensive so much as not really understanding why you suspect me.

@Ghost Ganster: Homura has been relatively inactive as town in previous games.

Could you explain why you want me dead? And why you think Umlaut is town?

Pedit: I wasn’t flipping out or panicking at all.

Hmm I think Snow is town

[Nauci]

I don't understand my predecessor's push on Snow either but I don't see why she would do something so abrasive if this slot were scum when she's plenty experienced enough to know it would become low hanging fruit

Pii and Ghost Ganster (now M2H? Haven't gotten that far yet) aren't scum together, I'm pretty sure

and I don't think Raya and Pi could be scum together either

I feel pretty good about Raya being town but admittedly I am biased simply because I agree with so many of their posts

I'm only on page 7 but I have a stronger-than-typical-by-page-7 scum lean on Ghost Ganster

His long post was the sort of ramble that I have definitely employed as scum to sound like I am evaluating people and really trying to get reads, but without actually making my mind up much on anybody. Like, the way that there are so many posts that have scum equity to him SO early on in the game just feels more like a scum player who is actively trying to read every post in a bad light in order to scum case them and keep multiple push options open. The scum read is then seriously compounded by the fact that after that noise, and with real substance in the game, he defaulted to a poke-the-lurkers stance. He even said that he tries to have reads early in the game to the point of forcing/faking them early on, used that stance to criticize another player for not having strong reads by like page 5, but all he came up with after those posts is policy voting a lurker. That just feels like scummy hesitation because the scum equity posts he talked about feel like too much of a reach even for him.

I have a town lean on Snow for the unnecessary defense of Homura (insofar as saying that inactivity is NAI) and a town lean on Pi for their reaction to the big Ghost Ganster post and Raya's commentary on it, even if I disagree with it. Essentially... I agree with Raya's 139.

I think GG's 163 misconstrue's Raya's posts quite a bit but I'm not sure yet if it was intentional or not. Scum!Pi had the option of siding with GG to scumread Raya or siding with Raya to scumread GG but did neither and considered both town which is something that town is more likely to do since there's no scum agenda. So the concept of scum trying to look busy doesn't apply here at all because that requires shading people without actively pushing them. Raya explains this well in 188

I can't precisely pinpoint why but I have a gut scum lean on Umlaut and Gibus as of page 8

[Nauci]

I'd be interested to hear that town lean explained more actually.

Do you think scum would force a town read on me?

I feel like scum would be more likely to go after easy targets than someone seeming towny very early on. Not very strong, but at that stage it was better than nothing.

pedit: well, not my fault I happened to post at that time, is it?

I totally agree with this sentiment as well.

[Nauci]

Scum are found more often on wagons. I guess you've never played with Bob before, because he'll drive that point home until you're mad. Obviously everyone is found more often on wagons, but scum are generally more wagon hoppy/opportunistic, since they're happier to wagon anyone that isn't them, while town may go vanity for others.

My anecdata has showed the opposite; scum are more wary of the optics of wagon hopping while town are frequently all over the place chasing down one lead or another

[Nauci]

Raya, do you have any scumreads?

ghost as my scumread right now. Pi is my strongest townread as well.

Which reminds me I should do this:
VOTE: Ghost

This vote on my slot would be a ballsy move for scum considering that at this point my slot from the perspective of the scum team was already being townread/seemed like a slot that would obv quickly.

From the perspective of scum, scumreading a top townread is a viable option to keep town disorganised. It maybe a ballsy move to do as scum, but that can't be a reason to townread an experienced player IMO.

If I were in the game when this post was made I would be more understanding but I was not so I do not understand where the sentiment comes from, particularly if it's

specifcally for this game

.

[Nauci]

Well I'm caught up now, but I can't believe how close to deadline this game is for having only 14 pages. There's not a ton of alignment indicative interactions yet simply because it's been slow and there has really been a lack of real time interactions.

I'm sorry that Elmo wasn't able to come in and answer the questions but I know that she is an extremely busy person between her job and probably like modding 3 games at a time.

Anyway, I don't see her case on Snow and I generally disagree with it.

I have a town read on Raya, town lean on Snowblaze and Pi, null-paranoia on Hectic, entirely-null on Homura, scumlean on Umlaut (Umlaut is a pretty darn good player so I haven't seen anything here that isn't, IMO, a "towny" or "scumhunting" post which would be easily imitable by Scumlaut), Gibus, and Ghost.

However, I concede that M2H's posts were pinging me as town instead of scum unlike Ghost's posts.

VOTE: Gibus

Gibus you have been all over the place today and not explained a whole lot of it. You somewhat explained your reads on Elmo and Raya but now neither are in your lynch pool, while I've not seen you case either Hectic or Homura at all. Why did they suddenly become your preferred lynch pool? I mean, why am I

not

in there if you were scumreading Elmo AND particularly paranoid about me after our last game together?

I'm going to be around for a few hours even if I'm just mobile posting while a bit stoned on painkillers. Let's see if we can properly resuscitate the game in its last 40 hours.

[Nauci]

I don't understand how wagon analysis can even be a topic of discussion when the game is only 14 pages into day 1

But you still didn't explain why those 2 players are your preferred votes

And if they are your preferred votes, why don't you vote there's

[Nauci]

Goddamnit autocorrect

[Nauci]

I read Elmo's 1989 scum game and 2000 town game and noticed that town!AzN was aggressive with their votes (mobile) similar to their play here, while scum!AzN was much more static.
Does this hold any significance?

My bad, I misread this post and mentally swapped "town!" And "scum!" because several people were strongly scum reading Elmo

[Nauci]

I don't think Scumlaut would hop on three different major wagons knowing that wagon analysis is a hot topic. That's part of why I'm townreading him

Dons SE hat

Wagon analysis is only really applicable after a flip has occurred and is therefore not usually mentioned in the middle of day 1

Removes SE hat

So that makes this very strange reasoning to give Umlaut a pass

Sometimes town hops all over the place pressuring multiple people; sometimes scum do it because they don't much care who gets mislynched so they're not committed to any particular vote. You have to analyze motivations for doing so and a player like Umlaut wouldn't be worried about the raw optics of voting different wagons.

[Nauci]

Nauci, where have you seen my play and decided I'm so good? I don't deny I'm pretty decent at playing scum, but if we've been in a game together I don't recall it.

I feel like we were in a game together years ago but that's not the point

The point is that you've been around and active for years and therefore are unlikely to do newbscum things like over worry about optics as either alignment

[Nauci]

scumlean on Umlaut (Umlaut is a pretty darn good player so I haven't seen anything here that isn't, IMO, a "towny" or "scumhunting" post which would be easily imitable by Scumlaut)

Is there anything concrete substantiating your scumread of Umlaut other than paranoia?

Not really

My gut just feels not good about him but I have absolutely no idea why

[Nauci]

UNVOTE: Gibus

Not liking how quickly people jumped onto the Gibus wagon and how unceremoniously Hectic put him at L-1 (I think my math is right but I am on mobile).

I'll give him time to answer people's questions.

[Nauci]

The way Raya and Hectic switched gears into Gibus just feels really scummy for gut reasons I can't currently explain.

I feel like Raya was a bit too eager to accept my town read of her and read on the rest of the game and is now considering me pocketed, but I'm also a very very paranoid player who frequently thinks my top town read is scum ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Hectic I felt was entirely null until a player who, with apparently literal decades of experience, didn't realize he was making a L-1 vote. Thoughts, Umlaut?

[Nauci]

.
I feel like Raya was a bit too eager to accept my town read of her and read on the rest of the game and is now considering me pocketed, but I'm also a very very paranoid player who frequently thinks my top town read is scum ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Idk what you mean by too eager but I only have you as a town lean. I don't feel like even if I was scum I'm in a position to consider you pocketed? But maybe from your POV you feel that way

That's fair

I have a habit of being very paranoid about my top town read (s) right at the end of day 1

Gibus where are you

[Nauci]

I agree failing to notice an L-1 is not a good sign, but if 68 is your source for "literal decades of experience" then you should note that that's an even-numbered post.

Goddamnit lmao

I guess I didn't pick up on that trend until a few pages later

[Nauci]

I really hate how much of the day Homura has spent not voting

VOTE: Homura

My lynch pool today is Hectic, Gibus, Homura. It seems significant that Hectic and Gibus are both at -2 and that both of those wagons built up quickly at EOD and they're voting each other. Surely both aren't scum together but it makes me paranoid that neither is scum. However, this could also just be because town finally realized there's a need to collapse onto a lynch at this point after my wagon fell apart?

I think we need to scrutinize the people who hopped off of my wagon and onto one of Gibus or Hectic with very little reason or commitment, so... Hectic or Umlaut?

Right now I'm scumreading Hectic more than Gibus. I realized that I misread Gibus's post about elmo and think that it is actually rather town of him to go against some vocal town leaders and give Elmo a town read. Obviously, Elmo wasn't even around enough to consider that a good target for pocketing, and there were plenty of low hanging fruit posts there to park an easy vote. Since I know for a fact that my slot is town, I also know for a fact that he wasn't doing it to protect a scum buddy. My suspicion is still largely based on the way Gibus switched around at the end of the day to 2 people in his POE which he's never provided a reason to scum read, and eagerly await his response.

[Nauci]

I was hoping to spur them to make a few more posts before EOD since there's still a fair amount of time left

[Nauci]

I'm still waiting for Gibus to respond before I decide who to vote

[Nauci]

In a game I played (NEWB 2004), a scummer scumread a player for lurking and being unmotivated unlike their other ongoing games, where they were active. That's probably why I'm biased to think this was a bad faith push. Although I'm certain this is what scum would go for.

When are you referencing here? I don't specifically remember this happening I guess

[Nauci]

In a game I played (NEWB 2004), a scummer scumread a player for lurking and being unmotivated unlike their other ongoing games, where they were active. That's probably why I'm biased to think this was a bad faith push. Although I'm certain this is what scum would go for.

When are you referencing here? I don't specifically remember this happening I guess

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p11830569
I think I subconsciously tied not developing reads to lurking with votato's drop in activity in that game. Still, I'm not bad faith pushing Hectic.

I don't understand. Lilith didn't mention votato being active in other games anywhere as far as I can tell?

[Nauci]

Are you using that example to say that inactivity is not an indication of scumminess and therefore you town read Elmo, or that, in addition to this, it's a reason to scumread Hectic for relying on it in his Elmo case?

[Nauci]

So... you're explaining why you thought it was a bad faith push?

Do you still think it is?

[Nauci]

Outside of that interaction with Hectic, why do you think he's scum?

[Nauci]

I really hate how much of the day Homura has spent not voting

VOTE: Homura

My lynch pool today is Hectic, Gibus, Homura. It seems significant that Hectic and Gibus are both at -2 and that both of those wagons built up quickly at EOD and they're voting each other. Surely both aren't scum together but it makes me paranoid that neither is scum. However, this could also just be because town finally realized there's a need to collapse onto a lynch at this point after my wagon fell apart?

I think we need to scrutinize the people who hopped off of my wagon and onto one of Gibus or Hectic with very little reason or commitment, so... Hectic or Umlaut?

Right now I'm scumreading Hectic more than Gibus. I realized that I misread Gibus's post about elmo and think that it is actually rather town of him to go against some vocal town leaders and give Elmo a town read. Obviously, Elmo wasn't even around enough to consider that a good target for pocketing, and there were plenty of low hanging fruit posts there to park an easy vote. Since I know for a fact that my slot is town, I also know for a fact that he wasn't doing it to protect a scum buddy. My suspicion is still largely based on the way Gibus switched around at the end of the day to 2 people in his POE which he's never provided a reason to scum read, and eagerly await his response.

This is a really strange vote considering you haven't indicated an inkling of what your progression on my slot might be and your explanation for doing so in 384 seems disingenuous. What exactly were you hoping to get out of me?

I assume you meant 385 when you said 384?

I have a null read on you based on your posting, but I find it scummy that you've not been using your vote the entire time. I wanted you to explain why you have not been using your vote to pressure and scum hunt, as well as more commentary on the recent developments before EOD, and I thought that voting you might successfully cause you to do so. Plus, I like to use my vote to get something done at all times but wasn't ready to put either of the other two at L-1 yet, so I voted the last person in my POE.

I definitely admit that this can look strange, but I really don't think it can be construed as scummy as scum have every motivation right now to pick one of the 2 existing wagons this close to end of day when obviously one of them would have to be town if I were scum.

So, take my post at face value: I don't like that you haven't been voting and want to know why.

[Nauci]

Raya, do you have any scumreads?

ghost as my scumread right now. Pi is my strongest townread as well.

Which reminds me I should do this:
VOTE: Ghost

This vote on my slot would be a ballsy move for scum considering that at this point my slot from the perspective of the scum team was already being townread/seemed like a slot that would obv quickly.

From the perspective of scum, scumreading a top townread is a viable option to keep town disorganised. It maybe a ballsy move to do as scum, but that can't be a reason to townread an experienced player IMO.

I don't get 289, gibus. Scumreading a top town attracts a lot of unwarranted attention. Where have you seen scum do this before as a strategy?

I was talking about this game in particular, not a general thing.
Where else can scum try to shoot at?

Gibus, regardless of the fact that you changed your mind, I want to know what you were thinking at the time when you made these posts.

Why did you say that your point about keeping town disorganized applied to this game in particular?

[Nauci]

Endometriosis is killing me right now and all I want to do is pop some meds and head to bed but I'm staying up trying to solve this game before deadline lol

Please hurry up with the responses already kthxbai

[Nauci]

So, take my post at face value: I don't like that you haven't been voting and want to know why.

Take it as a matter of circumstance, I guess? I generally vote only after having a degree of certainty in my reads, and I have been lacking a concrete scumread for most of the dayphase up until the point where I ghost voted your slot. But I'm hard-pressed to see why abstaining from voting entirely is scum-indicative.

I have a null read on you based on your posting, but I find it scummy that you've not been using your vote the entire time. I wanted you to explain why you have not been using your vote to pressure and scum hunt, as well as more commentary on the recent developments before EOD, and I thought that voting you might successfully cause you to do so. Plus, I like to use my vote to get something done at all times but wasn't ready to put either of the other two at L-1 yet, so I voted the last person in my POE.

I definitely admit that this can look strange, but I really don't think it can be construed as scummy as scum have every motivation right now to pick one of the 2 existing wagons this close to end of day when obviously one of them would have to be town if I were scum.

I mean, when you essentially naked vote me a day before deadline and the rest of your post is about why players other than me are scummy, I'd gather only that you scumread me and are willing to end the day with my lynch. It felt like you would have voted Umlaut and asked me the questions you did in this post, but instead you went about it in this roundabout way — provoking me to ask you first before pressuring me — and I just find it difficult to see this coming from a town-motivated perspective.

I don't think your defense WRT the competing wagons holds water when scum generally prefers not to be limited to choosing between their partner and a townie.

My previous comments about voting answers both of these.

For town, even for Town PR, your vote is your number 1 scum hunting tool. It's used to apply pressure to various players in order to provoke reactions which will generally be a lot more alignment indicative than just "ghost voting" (side note, I feel like everyone in this game thought you were asking Ghost to vote in that post instead of saying you were suspecting someone). Talking about and scumreading people generally won't provoke useful reactions the way that bringing someone to L-2 would, and even individual votes can really bring in people's attention.

In addition, voting record and history is something that is easier to check in the later stages of the game. We will end up skimming ISOs looking for votes and the interactions around those, we will analyze the history and events around this game by looking at the vote counts from the mod and correlating them with game events and flips.

So, not choosing to vote is anti town because it is depriving us of a way to drive the game forward, whether it's forcing lurkers to participate more, or forcing scum to get anxious or panicky, or giving the rest of us insight into what reads you are committing to.

It can be scummy because by not joining the various wagons or committing to any other vote, you can skate by under the radar and not attract as much attention. You escape being asked to justify your votes and certainly escape a lot of later game scrutiny.

I think that your responses to and about me have shown that even my lone vote on you has had the desired effect of calling you into participating when you may have otherwise lurked.

With that said, I now contest your casting of my vote as "naked" because your lack of voting pinged me the entire time for the reasons above. I concede that the notion of not voting unless you're sure someone is scum is a common one among new players though and I did the same thing in my first forum mafia games (on a different, private forum), so I'll give that explanation some credence for now and ask that you change your practice from here on out.

[Nauci]

I definitely prefer lynching gibus to Hectic at this point. I feel like there's something that can be worked out from the speed at which both of these wagons were built up, but I'm not sure what it is, at least not yet.

Anyway, it's probably close enough to deadline that I should be doing this: VOTE: gibus, L-1.

Why though?
I'm not sure why I'm being scumread right now.

I explained earlier:

I'm starting to lean towards a possible scum!gibus

Why?

Well, other than the initial weak townlean you haven't really given me any reason to think you're town, and then what M2H and Nauci said about your read on Raya is making me suspicious. I'll need to read back through your ISO to get a solid read, though. Will do that now!

Your ISO didn't give me enough to doubt that initial impression. I'm not

convinced

, but I think you're more likely to be scum than Hectic right now, and there probably wouldn't be time for an alternate wagon.

Let's say that hypothetically there is enough time to form an alternate wagon. Who are you scumreading and why?

[Nauci]

also gives me scum pings.

Can you tell me what that post means because I couldn't decipher it and thought it was just another trolly one

[Nauci]

If you're referring to the gibberish, that's not what I'm talking about

I mean the substance of that post

First, I just figured out like 20 minutes ago that he's talking about you when he says Busi, but I still don't know what he's talking about wrt your previous have and therefore don't understand the inferences than drawn from it. Can you tl;Dr that for me?

[Nauci]

Okay so

On my first read of the game, I was somewhat confused by the constant trolling posts from Hectic (also, I feel like gimmicks are slightly more likely from scum to cover up meta differences), and really wasn't and to follow their reads and progression as I read along, so they were null and in my POE. Once I corrected my misunderstanding about Gibus's read on Elmo, I had him as less scummy and was about to vote Hectic, but then decided I didn't want to put him at L-1 just because of a lack of town read.

I have since gone and read Hectic's ISO again and, successfully skipping the trolling, I see more genuine town lines of thinking and trying to figure out the game and felt a lot better about him. I also reread Umlaut's ISO and I'm still not sure how I feel about the slot, but I somewhat bought his case on Hectic for a bit.

So then I'm still confused on the slot, so... I skimmed Hoctac's ISO from the game that Gibus linked, particularly looking for what gave scumbbus away to Hoctac (I didn't see much? Hundreds of posts fighting with Battle Mage before a rather sudden turn into Gibus and getting him lynched at the end of d1). Then I skimmed Gibus's ISO there to see what he's like as scum.

After all of that, I finally feel confident enough to decide that Gibus is the more likely to be scum among my PoE.

Among the reasons for that is that I was scum in 2004 with Gibus, where he was town reading me pretty much the whole time because I was absolutely exhausting myself with how hard I was trying to sound town. He outright said this game that he'd be more paranoid about me this time around. But... Instead of doing so, he continues his town read of Elmo and doesn't include me in his POE at all? I find the lack of paranoia and desire to lynch hectic while there's town momentum for it much more likely to come from Scum Gibus than Town Gibus. Also, there wasn't any especially deep or long-running chains of thought in his ISO that Scum Gibus would have trouble faking.

@Gibus, consider this my intent to hammer in approximately 10-12 hours from now.

[Nauci]

Well that is quite a dramatic turn of events

[Nauci]

I'm around for the next 3 hours and 45 minutes so I would like to hear from Snowblaze before doing anything else

If I don't hear anything by T-30 minutes I'll throw down a hammer though

[Nauci]

Do you mean Hectic or Umlaut?

I think by my count Hectic is -1 and Umlaut is -2?

[Nauci]

We're both at L-2. gibus is only at one 1 vote now.

Snowblaze made it sound like Umalut was lying by simply claiming an "investigative" role. Really need her to come back and confirm that her role doesn't work with Umlaut's claim.

It's driving me crazy that she'd drop that "he's lying" and disappear immediately

[Nauci]

I don't fucking understand why Umlaut would claim when he did though, wtf

[Nauci]

I feel like if Umlaut is scum that would clear both hectic and gibus

[Nauci]

Hectic was still a viable lynch before you were

[Nauci]

We'd need one person other than me to vote there though

[Nauci]

Like if we don't get another Umlaut vote before deadline, Raya you'll need to swap to hectic and I'll hammer because a no lynch after all this happened would be terrible

[Nauci]

To be honest, I’ve caught up a while ago and I really wanted Snow to respond before posting because it would confirm or deconfirm the theory I based most of my reads and my view of the game around, but I don’t think it’s affordable to wait now.

VOTE: Umlaut

Prefer going here. Snow’s semi-CC means this has a higher chance of nailing confscum than a Hectic lynch.

If Umlaut flips red I'm debating if this post clears Homura or if it is hesitation to bus, knowing they'd look bad otherwise

[Nauci]

But anyway

VOTE: Umlaut

[Nauci]

I think that if Homura wasn't active in other games at the time, then it would have been a clear because there's no reason to come out of lurking to switch things to Umlaut over the scenario where we'd be forced to vote Hectic

But seeing as how Hectic has already shown that he checks people's activity in other games, maybe she felt pressure to come back and do this?

That's still pretty fringe though and it's much more likely that she's town for that vote

[Nauci]

I think it's pretty suspicious that M2H made a few townposts but then sat back on those laurels

[Nauci]

Oh in that case

Yeah if Umlaut flips red that's definitely a clear for her because there's no reason to not lurk it out otherwise

[Nauci]

I wouldn't read too much into activity to be honest. Sometimes I disappear a whole day simply because I'm tired or not in the mood to play

It's not inactivity that we're reading though, it's the choice of activity which wouldn't be at all necessary if she and Umlaut are scum together

[Nauci]

My final solve is {Hectic, Snowblaze}. Don't let anyone spin some story about how it's too obvious and scum wouldn't do that. It's only a bad play if they actually get lynched for it, so lynch them for it.

If those 2 are the scum team why the f would they do this whole song and dance and hope enough people checked in today to mislynch you today instead of Gibus o_O

[Nauci]

I just wish we had heard more from M2H before EOD

[Nauci]

Hello everyone.

Once I get a chance I'm going to look into Umlaut's associations and also Hectic's.

Interesting scum didn't kill Snow who is being considered a potential PR right now. Makes me wonder if Hectic was on to something.

Actually I'm willing to bet that it means that the remaining scum is a scum PR and assumed that Snow would be protected by a jailer or a doctor and went with the town who is otherwise the most confirmed town plus scary to go up against

Since they're solo scum now, I don't think they can perform their action AND the faction kill, so they wouldn't have been able to do anything to prevent a protection role from working

[Nauci]

It would really super suck for M2H if he replaced into a scum slot and then had that turn of events happen which narrows the POE down to just like... 3 slots?

Snowblaze is obviously cleared, Raya36 is cleared for jumping ship in crunch time, Homura is cleared because there was absolutely no reason they couldn't have lurked out the rest of the day and forced Raya and I to switch to lynching Hectic, and I don't see how anyone can assume that I am scum when I had literally every opportunity to declare intent on Gibus and then hammer him immediately with only ~12 hours left on the clock instead of waiting until the next day to do so, and obviously we cannot both be scum.

That means scum has to be within Gibus, M2H, and Pi.

Of those 3, I still have a townlean on Pi, and would like to focus on the other 2 for now.

I cannot for the life of me figure out why Umlaut would claim when he did as scum. It would have made absolutely zero sense to do so as town, but as scum, it also doesn't make sense to me. He wasn't really in imminent danger of being lynched because even if Hectic defused the wagon on Gibus, he was still on the chopping block and if Umlaut did NOT claim, Hectic's lynch would still have been the more likely one, I think? I mean, the only other scenario I can think of is that Gibus was the scum PR, and Umlaut was trying to protect the scum PR? That also doesn't make sense to me because if Umlaut was lynched, then the scum PR wouldn't be able to do both their scum action and the faction kill except to do so on the same target (i.e. roleblock a jailer in order to prevent them from jailing in order to then kill the jailer?).

The only other possible explanation is that Umlaut legitimately thought that Hectic's last minute wagon would successfully go through in what little time remained, and honestly thought that claiming an investigative role would save him and hoped that town wouldn't be checking the thread in time to counter claim? Or that the lynch would go through either way, and he could at least draw out a town counter claim for his buddy to kill afterwards?

I honestly don't know. But Hectic flipping town and Umlaut flipping scum means Gibus isn't cleared.

Now it's a matter of figuring out whether Umlaut would have super hard town reads on his scum buddy or not, because he spent half of the day saying that Ghost/M2H is SUPER RIDICULOUSLY TOWN and that's making me all WIFOM.

Anyway, lynching 1 out of 2 scum on the first day with all town PR alive means we almost definitely win this one short of a scum miracle move.

VOTE: Gibus Let's start here while we wait for M2H's replacement.

[Nauci]

Isn't M2H cleared? Wouldn't making a NK be considered as a response?
VOTE: Piisirrational

Oh shit you're right about that

Huge oops from me

[Nauci]

Night should probably have been frozen until a replacement was found

[Nauci]

Yessssss thank you for that clear, I feel even better about the game state now

VOTE: Piisirrational

That's L-1

The only vague possibility of someone on that wagon bussing Umlaut is Raya and I am just not seeing that, so I'm pretty confident about this lynch

[Nauci]

@Snowblaze You being alive means that scum is almost definitely a roleblocker or rolecop who knows that there's a high likelihood of a protective role in the game and therefore didn't bother trying to target you, so they're trying to guess the other PR at this point?

[Nauci]

Spoiler: All of the times Umlaut interacted with or commented on Pi directly (as opposed to reading others based on their interactions with Pi)

What do you find in post 26 that is scummy? To me, it looks like they're agreeing with you that gibus made a post that was a scumclaim.

I think you're reading a lot more into both 26 and 30 than there actually is there.

Post 27, on the other hand, is pretty scummy. The reasoning of simply wanting "a bigger wagon" seems opportunistic.

VOTE: Umlaut

What do you get out of having big wagons forming early on the game as town? What are your thoughts on the current wagons?

What's opportunistic about it? Is there someone else you think I should be voting instead, and if not then what's wrong with jumping onto the biggest wagon?

I really haven't seen anything alignment-indicative from anyone yet. My thoughts on the current wagons are that it's good they exist because they'll push the game forward.

I'm disgusted by all this alt-speculation. No respect for people's privacy. But yes, I can confirm that I am in fact an alt of Looker.

This guy just can't resist a chance to fakeclaim.

VOTE: Pii.

This just feels like a lot of noise. The wagon wasn't RVS.

For what it's worth, I felt like the wagon was pretty random when I jumped onto it. I don't take Gibus' "scumclaim" seriously for a second and I definitely don't believe it's more likely to come from scum.

That said, I don't understand where Pi is coming from here and it bothers me. I just read 81 five times and I still don't really know what he's saying. I also think 76 deserves an answer.

VOTE: piisirational
because at least it's better than gibus.

Feels like pi town.

I'm going to really need you to explain this because I don't see it at all.

VOTE: Snow

Feels like you are trying really hard right now

This is the lamest excuse for a vote I've seen all game, and I used "Wagons are nice"

twice.

Why are you getting defensive at a vote?

VOTE: Snow

Feels like you are trying really hard right now

...how does that make me scum? I’m just throwing out whatever thoughts I have at the moment.

This just felt panicked. Odds are I'm wrong or they are frustrated. But to flip out over one vote just didn't feel right.

And these followups are just as bad. Panicked, really?

"You're scummy because you're trying too hard"
"Wait, why is trying hard scummy?"
"Damn you're shook"

Snow and Elmo can't be scum together. Leaning town on Snow.

Somewhat agree on the first part but I don't really have any meaningful read on Snow. Why town?

@Ghost Ganster: Homura has been relatively inactive as town in previous games.

This is likely not going to be popular, but I don't care too much if they're town. Giving lurkers a pass is bad, in my opinion, even if meta is at play. It's just too good for scum.

She has yet to even vote, randomly or not.

@Homura, what are your scum-reads? Do consider using your vote as well, please.

Good post (though I maybe agree with the second part more than the first; I definitely do care if they're town.)

Not sure how to feel about Raya's white-knighting me in 105. It seems from the next post that they don't actually think Pi is scum so I'm not sure what else that post could be trying to accomplish. Still leaning scum on Pi notwithstanding Snow's meta point there, also Elmo after that ridiculous push on Snow. Ganster is still my favorite for town.

Not sure how to feel about Raya's white-knighting me in 105. It seems from the next post that they don't actually think Pi is scum so I'm not sure what else that post could be trying to accomplish. Still leaning scum on Pi notwithstanding Snow's meta point there, also Elmo after that ridiculous push on Snow. Ganster is still my favorite for town.

Are you sure you meant 105? I'm a bit confused

I meant 105, yes (but not so much in itself as because it's continuing to pursue the line of discussion starting with 76). You say Pi is town so you're not claiming his reasons are disingenuous, you're just trying to dissuade him from scumreading me. I don't think I've yet done anything so obvtown as to warrant that kind of defense, so where's it coming from?

Losing interest in Pi, he seems like he could just be foot-in-mouth town. 121 in particular sort of reminds me of another player who is the sort of lynchbait I am way too prone to fall for.

VOTE: Elmo
I'm not thrilled with starting a wagon on someone immediately after they declare V/LA, but she's posted since then so I guess she's not completely absent.

Oh I see what you mean. I was never trying to dissuade him from scumreading you. I was just trying to get a better read on Pi. Which I did. I wasn't even thinking about you when asking it which is why I was confused at first

I guess that makes sense. I think it's good town play to keep questioning even players you think are town but I don't necessarily expect to see town actually do it even though they should, so it wasn't clear to me you were doing that.

(In response to your next post, I am most definitely town or scum)

@Pi

Why are you still voting me? Last time you talked about it you were saying you didn't even really think I was scum. Did you decide I was at some point or do you just still have no scumreads two days later?

That said,

@Pi

Why are you still voting me? Last time you talked about it you were saying you didn't even really think I was scum. Did you decide I was at some point or do you just still have no scumreads two days later?

The fact you've changed your vote doesn't relieve you from answering this.

Probably time for us to all put our cards on the table since deadline is approaching.

Reads:

• M2H is so town it hurts
  
• Raya36 also pretty town
  
• Snowblaze is a tough call but I'm leaning town
  
• gibus and Homura are dead null
  
• Pi is null too but I'm more paranoid there
  
• One of Nauci or Hectic is probably scum

It's not the fact that it's the effort that is what giving me a townlean on her, but more of the content behind the post. I think the fact that she split up her catch-up post (I feel like scum would probably be more likely to put everything into one post) and the fact that she plans to "properly resuscitate the game" is town-indicative.

Really? I don't buy "splitting up her catch-up post" as AI at all, and as for that "resuscitate the game" comment... you are aware that scum want people to think they're town, yes?

@Nauci

You're going to acknowledge we need to consolidate on a lynch, and then start a whole new wagon from zero? How about you vote Hectic so we can actually get an intent before we're down to last-second scrambling?

Umlaut did an early push on Pi but backed off on it before there was any real danger fairly early in Day 1 and placed them in Null after that. I feel like it's pretty good odds that scum null reads their scum buddy.

PEdit: Gibus, Pi isn't even around for twilight are you that confident about ending the game here?

[Nauci]

If we were in C then there would be absolutely no reason for scum to not kill you last night; not only would there likely not be a 2nd PR, there's almost no chance that the NK could have been stopped. Even if you were jailer, you'd have to successfully guess who the other scum is.

Scum only know which column we're in, not which row, so they wouldn't know if we were A1, A2, A3 (or B1 B2 B3).

[Nauci]

Right but I don't think a single scum can perform their power role action AND the faction kill on separate targets in the same night

[Nauci]

...unless it’s M2H and they pre-submitted a kill during the day, before I counterclaimed, and then haven’t been online to change their kill in light of my claim?

This wouldn't make sense regardless of whether or not they

could

pre-submit a night action because up until the very last minute Hectic driven swing onto Umlaut, which, theoretically M2H would not have seen if he's been gone this entire time, Hectic was the other top scumread for the game and wouldn't have been a great candidate for an NK?

[Nauci]

Dangit

FOSing Keyenpeydee for foiling the hammer ruse

[Nauci]

If I were scum in this situation I'd also have pretty much no motivation to participate tbh

[Nauci]

They'd have to claim TPR and make M2H out to be the last scum and do a lot of heavy lifting today to live, and then have to do it all over again for multiple more days

[Nauci]

Well good game everyone!

Pi, you had me fooled until the associations and PoE took over

She had me up until the Cop cleared Gibus

That's a pretty darn good Day 1 and unfortunate that the last 12 hours completely blew her cover

[Nauci]

gg! Shame about the modspew but these things happen. This was a quality playerlist and I would love to play with any of you again in the future!

I can't believe I was wrong on Snowblaze being the cult leader though. Absolutely gutted.

Agreed here!

I mean, at least the first half

[Nauci]

Dangit

FOSing Keyenpeydee for foiling the hammer ruse

Scum-sided mod. Maybe there has been a strong of town wins in the newbie queue?

Only because I massively threw the game I was scum in because I absolutely fail at figuring out TPR

If I successfully shot the JK at any time before Day 4 I would definitely have survived to end game QQ

[Nauci]

If PoE didn't narrow it down to just her she probably would've survived at least another day

If Hectic hadn't lurched us from Gibus to Umlaut, I wouldn't have suspected her until Umlaut died or it was Day 3 or 4, I'm guessing

[Nauci]

So was there not another TPR and scum didn't kill Snow because ?? or has no one claimed it yet