Mini Normal 2148 (Post Game)
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I was very prepared to come into the day calling the scumteam but the Porkens flip has thrown me off (didn't scumread him during my read-through overnight, I suck) and I probably need some recalibration.
Green Crayons is town, Not_Mafia is likely town, I feel decently strong on Dunnstral being town. Had bob as town on general feeling off his posts but probably need to recheck there. The slot prior to porkens replacing in was an easy bus for towncred though and it's likely that at least one of the people on the L-1 wagon is scum imo.
VOTE: votato
still absolutely hated his and stungun's D1- maxwell
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I absolutely despised stungun's posts when I was reading through and had planned to open the day by voting him but less confident there now. Didn't like Malakittens either but early interaction with BM on a quick review looks townish, and I'm not sure she kills notscience who was firmly in her corner.- maxwell
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Yeah. Feel okay about my vote still.In post 1320, Porkens wrote:I'd be ok lynching votato, but it really won't tell us as much as Dunn.
serial killers are explicitly banned in mini normals as of 2018DoctorPepper wrote:Btw I haven't played a normal in a long time, are SKs normal or are we considering a town vig?
Or 2 scum teams?- maxwell
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Here I was worried the closure was due to something serious, glad to have the game back.
I'm not sure why this is necessarily true? The logic seems very arbitrary.In post 1599, Malakittens wrote:So I’m thinking that one of his scum partners might be someone he mentions quite often. I know he mentions Vot a lot, along with Dun.- maxwell
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The way bob expressed his vote for gera read like it was coming from someone who had gotten burned by his horrible play before and it read town, like most of his play. looking at his day 1 he went pretty hard for a vote of the battle mage slot. I don't see myself as likely to vote him. He also raised a decent point about the way HK 50 kept trying to defend that slot. I think he comes off looking significantly worse after that flip.
I think this votecount is the lynchpin, of the players off that wagon I think HK 50 looks the worst by a fairly significant amount. Its possible Porkens push on Dunnstral could have been a last minute distancing play but I still lean town on Dunns play overall.In post 767, Jake The Wolfie wrote:
clidd (6):Not_Mafia, Green Crayons, stungun0404, Malakittens, bob3141, votato
Dunnstral (4):DoctorPepper, farside22, HK 50, notscience
Green Crayons (1):clidd
notscience (1):geraintm
Not_Mafia (1):Dunnstral
Not voting (0):
[/area]- maxwell
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You're not supposed to post after requesting a replacement, just letting you now because I don't want you to get in trouble for breaking the rules.In post 1610, stungun0404 wrote:Yes I requested replacement but had stuff prepared that I wanted to post first since I worked on it intensely- maxwell
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Spoiler: votato on bm/clidd/porkens
That doesn't look like a strong push to me, and in fact seemed very uncertain on the slot until he weakly sheeped the clidd wagon, then was suddenly insisting BM had been scummy all along. Does not look like an organic read progression. The insistence on voting porkens followed by immediate defection to gera is also noteworthy.- maxwell
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You're going to have to explain this thought process because after a very mild push on him you unvoted with a "my vote is on BM as a placeholder ffs." in 357 then claimed "BM is literally always scummy though. and bad at scumhunting. this is actually better than what ive seen elsewhere. so im not sure what to make of that." in 543, before finally voting him with only "It seems like a lot of people scum read bm but not that many people are actually voting there. VOTE: bm. Can we get this wagon rolling?" in 750. That looks like more or less the opposite of how you're describing it: You wavered on the BM vote on your own then decided to follow it based on other people's reads. Show me what posts influenced your thinking here because I'm having a hard time seeing it.In post 1634, votato wrote:i thought the slot was scum at the beginning of the game. Everyone decided the slot was town so i waffled a bit. I should have known better.
I really hated the way stungun posts, he had by far the largest section of notes in my readthrough overnight, his whole tone and reasoning just felt exceedingly disingenuous but after the porkens flip I got cold feet and think it might just be his writing style. Something about the way he interacted with BM/porkens is telling me "no". I think it'd be unlikely for me to support any of those votes right now.Not_Mafia wrote:I would like to lynch in bob, stun and Dunn
but not sure if I just hate how stun posts- maxwell
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Still very bothered by votato's read progression on BM and his explanation really doesn't make sense or track with what he actually did, but Green Crayons raises some good points. I wasn't confident scum would so blatantly support each other like they did in early game, had dunnstral as town largely on tone, my experiene with him is that cryptic one-liners are basically what to expect, but on a reread of his iso it's very notable he attacked Not_Mafia very hard for his push on battle mage.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Dunnstral- maxwell
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You realize why that looks bad for you, though, right? Please, give me something more than this.In post 1683, Dunnstral wrote:This Votato wagon is looking good.
maxwell, I attacked N_M because I wasn't scumreading BM and his posts looked bad.- maxwell
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haven't had much to comment on in subsequent posts or the motivation to go back and re-assess. Will try to do more today, though.In post 1699, Malakittens wrote:I shouldn’t be able to go to sleep being the last post and waking up being the last post.- maxwell
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This is where I was at, as well, it's just that looking back the way he interacted with the flipped scum slot doesn't look very good. I don't think it's going to be possible for me to find a way to ignore that. I need to spend time looking at other people though.In post 1677, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:I'm not feeling a dunn wagon.
Dunn's posting feel like his towngame - in particular, his confidence in his ability to towncase himself early game. He was wrong about BM, but I liked some of his other pushes he made yesterday, e.g. farside- maxwell
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can you tell me what about his recent handful of posts you liked better relative to everything else in the game?Cat Scratch Fever wrote:bob's recent posting has been better
You're going to have to explain that because I don't see it at all.In post 1754, Green Crayons wrote:DP is pretty town so don't know why people keep going back to this well.
Here's a summary of DoctorPepper's interactions with the BM slot: in 248 just says he disagrees with bttle mage's tossed out scumreads (didn't really seem to be townreading notscience before that so it's a bit strange). 260 is a soft defense of battle mage, with "too jokey to be scum" and likes him "not being super defensive", but says his posting has been "incoherent". 262 asks if people have a meta read on battle mage, doesn't really have a follow up. 567 says BM replacing out is NAI. 939 says "Hate on BM's content all you want but pushing Clidd for this is kinda bordering on desperate". 943 again criticizes the push on clidd. in 1592 on day 2 he says "I'm actually kinda shocked that porkens flipped and was targetted this night. I did not understand your case on him at all", which I actually kind of like? It's not impossible to fake that sentiment but I like the admission of being wrong. But it's fairly notable there was basically 0 interaction or mention of DP from either battle mage or porkens.
I'm probably not opposed to the theory of flipping people who were off the clidd L-1 wagon and that includes Dunnstral but I don't want to just lazily default along with the popular vote, think a more thorough examination is warranted. I need to go back over people because my overnight reads got upended. I'll be looking at HK 50 next.- maxwell
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So, in a similar vein, here's how HK 50 interacted with the BM slot: 166 has him making a joke about battle mage being useless in response to battle mage making a vote on him because of his wagon size and post restricvtion. Maybe an unlikely S/S interaction? Asking him for an explanation in 168 less so. 207 has him questioning why malakittens finds battle mage scummy. 209 asks battle mage about his read on green crayons. 307 explains his meta as "you have to look at overall motivation in his posts in accordance to the gamestate" which isn't very useful (though I somewhat liked the admission to sheeping in that same post). Says he hates reading his posts in 609. defends clidd's absence in 709. 713 again comments on the slot with "Clidd really has nothing AI. BM I dont really have a read on." 728/729 is dismissing the possibility of a BM/votato team. In 731 says "I can be convinced of scum BM despite disagreeing with the votato pairing" which is probably his worst line. 738 again calls stungun's push on clidd "WIFOM bullshit". 1022 says of BM: "Even with my suspicions he was trying to play against/off meta, the case didnt sway me hard. It warrants hearing his replacement speak at least". From there, there's not a whole lot of interaction with porkens on any level. refuses to vote him in 1545/1547. expresses alarm that the counterwagons of the day all jumped to voting gera in 1549 but then walks it back in 1558. Again very little comment on anything porkens says.
Independently, I think HK 50 reads townish overall but from this perspective it doesn't really look good. There's a few townish looking posts but his resistance to reading the slot in the later day is bad. I'll look into Dunnstral tomorrow as well, fully aware he doesn't look great interaction-wise either.- maxwell
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No? This is literally just showing the things you did, you idiot. None of what I said inherently assumes that but it certainly makes you look like someone whoIn post 1767, DoctorPepper wrote:In post 1763, maxwell wrote:It's "cherry picking" to highlight every single interaction you had with a flipped scum slot? Lol okay.
Yeah, because you're assumingI knew it was gonna flip scumcouldbe a partner.- maxwell
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No, I did answer. My post contained every interaction you had with Battle Mage's slot. How the fuck is that cherry picking? It isn't, because it's a goddamn comprehensive review. I didn't "assume" anything and you're full of shit for saying so. I just took a look at what you did and said, didn't even add much commentary but I would say that, yeah, it looks like plausible interactions. Tell me, what did I cherry pick? What did I leave out, you fucking liar? God, you're illiterate.- maxwell
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All right.In post 1824, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:
Mostly the follow up to his HK 50 push revealed there was more to it than just "not posting during certain times of day"In post 1760, maxwell wrote:can you tell me what about his recent handful of posts you liked better relative to everything else in the game?
I'm totally fine with him as a potential elimination now I think. DoctorPepper's self-defense made no sense and pissed me off but if anything made me feel he's more likely to be townIn post 1827, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:
I feel like this is more than enough reason to just vote HK 50In post 1765, maxwell wrote:expresses alarm that the counterwagons of the day all jumped to voting gera in 1549 but then walks it back in 1558.
Pure guess-ery, porkens looked likely to go down day 1 and under that assumption he'd be trying to create non-associatives to help his partners. Of course, this is all just a big bag of WIFOM so do with it what you will. Dunnstral also hard defended that slot, the associatives for him aren't really any better. The one point in his favor is that he was the wagon opposing the wagon that put clidd to L-1 & it's somewhat hard to pick out a potential final partner for him from there.In post 1828, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:Why do we think Porkens was bussing his partner Dunn as opposed to finding a lynchbaity town player that had the best chance of being mislynched?- maxwell
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Do I actually have to go over Dunnstral's interactions with the BM slot like I did for DoctorPepper and HK 50? I skipped out on it because I was pissed off, he isn't playing the game, and it looked like a foregone conclusion but now people are backing down and I feel like if I don't do the work, no one is.- maxwell
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You have 11 goddamn hours. Don't try to start a flashwagon.
And yes, I replaced farside. If you wanted to discuss me, you should have been doing it a lot sooner.
We're likely going to have to hammer without a claim either way, Dunnstral isvery obviously lurking out the end of this day phaseand will likely not show up to claim. He's been only showing up rarely and posting the bare minimum, avoiding actually giving meaningful commentary on the game. He probably won't post again before deadline, either.- maxwell
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In realistic terms: We have 9 hours because the mod isn't granting an extension (and you apparently aren't requesting one?). What you are counting on is that between now and the deadline, 4 people log on and decide they're okay with moving to me. Given activity levels, this is an extremely dicey proposition. I don't even know who will be around. In purely objective terms, you are unlikely to succeed at moving that many votes in a short period of time, and are likely to end the day in no elimination if you try to switch. Reality dictates the terms and trying a last minute flashwagon is a bad idea (and also how town got pulled off from voting scum on day 1, huh, how about that)
Right now the deadline is going to be around 8 AM EST. who even is going to be around at that time? People need to start sounding off. I'll be online for the next 3-4 hours, and then I have to sleep.- maxwell
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DoctorPepper should be around given activity patterns. bob doesn't look like he'll post again, he very rarely posts in the timeframe we have left. Not_Mafia might not be on again until very close to deadline, he has some post in the early morning (EST), but none during the evening. (I was going to have a post here about Dunnstral never posting again, but he just posted)
These are the facts, you need to start looking at them.- maxwell
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If you're not going to vote me, you're going to need to vote HK 50. There's not going to be support for voting NPOM.In post 1859, Dunnstral wrote:I'd rather not lynch maxwell.
Or we can just give up and embrace the apathetic swamp this game has become and accept people aren't going to agree to a wagon.- maxwell
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I appreciate the support, even while I am voting you. If our would-be flashwagoners want to move back, I'll vote HK 50. Malakittens, given her activity levels, may or may not be online before he deadline - she has a few posts in the early hours before the current deadline, but I'd rather not risk it.- maxwell
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I mean, he also could have tried to join your silly little wagon on me, but he didn't, for whatever mysterious Dunnstral reason that is. I wish he'd say more but this is pretty much what I expect to get.In post 1868, NoPowerOverMe wrote:All I know is you are the second choice wagon and you switching over to HK is pretty survivalist.
I guess I'm still willing to chance it and just vote the empty HK 50 slot.- maxwell
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It feels very unlikely to hit scum, looking at the sheer amount of people who have expressed wanting to vote it (the only people who haven't voted there or said they'd vote there are green crayons and n_m, who I'm pretty sure are town, and doctorpepper, who I guess could be teamed but I sort of townread him and that feels like way too easy a solution). Blah.- maxwell
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I'm not voting bob without a claim from another investigative role given likely distributions of power in the setup.
He claimed vanilla cop, not cop. It likely fits thematically with the other PRs in the setup. We have 2 known roles with the simple modifier which only works on vanilla players. Also I'm still in the game last I checked.In post 1923, Green Crayons wrote:bob3141 - cop
Looker (HK 50 Truth ) - town (cop result)
DoctorPepper - town (cop result)
Not_Mafia - JOAT
Leaving:
Cat Scratch Fever (Ghost Ganster stungun0404)
Green Crayons
farside22
NoPowerOverMe (votato)- maxwell
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Normal setup power distributions. As it stands now if our only power roles are 2-shot simple vig + simple doctor + JOAT that's an exceedingly weak town and unlikely to pass review for balance.In post 1962, NoPowerOverMe wrote:@maxwell, what makes you think there is another investigative role?
Think it's very likely though that it's an all-goon scumteam because of this though.- maxwell
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I'm not sure he's read a single word in the thread.
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MN2149
VT x 6 + Vigilante + Odd-Night Loyal Doctor + Odd-Night Gunsmith + 1-Shot Watcher
vs
Mafia Goon + Mafia Multitasking Watcher + Mafia Night 3 Jailkeeper
MN2147
VT x 7 + Town Announcing Neapolitan + Town Jailkeeper + Town Universal Backup
vs
Mafia Goon x 2 + Mafia Rolestopper (only 3 power roles here but note they're all fairly strong)
MN2146
VT x 6 + Town Roleblocker + Town Doctor + Town 3-shot Combined Fruit Vendor Gunsmith + Town Backup Roleblocker
vs
Mafia Goon + Mafia Night 2 Alien + Mafia Watcher
MN2143
VT x 5 + Town Tracker + Town Neighbor Encryptor + Town Neapolitan Neighbor + Town Neighbor + Town Back-up Neapolitan
vs
Mafia Goon x 2 + Mafia Vanilla Cop
MN2141
VT x 6 + Town Disloyal Fruit Vendor + Town Tracker + Town Traffic Analyst + Town Night 4 Vigilante
vs
Mafia Strongman x 3
MN2139
VT x 5 + Town Neighbor + Town 1-Shot Cop + Town Informed Fruit Vendor + Town Combined Tracker Follower + Town 1-Shot Bulletproof Traffic Analyst
vs
Mafia Neighbor x 3
MN2138
VT x 6 + Town Even Night Roleblocker + Town Voyeur Mason + Town Follower Mason + Town Odd Night Jailkeeper
vs
Mafia Goon + Mafia Even Night Jailkeeper + Mafia Odd Night Ninja
MN2137
VT x 5 + Town Jailkeeper + Town 1-Shot Voyeur + Town 1-Shot Weak Follower + Town 1-Shot Voyeur + Town 1-shot bulletproof 1-shot watcher
vs
Mafia Goon x 2 + Mafia 1-shot Voyeur
MN2135
VT x 6 + Town Miller x 2 + Innocent Child + Town Ascetic Encryptor + Town 1-shot Rolecop
vs
Mafia Goon x 2
MN2132
VT x 5 + Town Neighborizer Enabler + Town Role Cop + Town Ascetic + Town Indecisive Babysitter + Town Watcher
vs
Mafia Encryptor + Mafia Compulsive Weak Neighborizer + Mafia Informed 1-shot Jailkeeper- maxwell
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I think last scum is in {Looker, CSF, DoctorPepper, NPOM} and we just need to find one that's town. Need to piece together who was willing to vote HK50 yesterday and who wasn't. Sort of just want to punt nopower into the sun regardless.
I played one game with CSF where he replaced into a scum slot and was basically a dead fish but I've no idea if this is a consistent thing for him or not. I disliked stungun significantly but felt CSF has been okay.- maxwell
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Shut up unless you've read the game.In post 1994, NoPowerOverMe wrote:There's no logical argument to suggest that NM is "confirmed town".- maxwell
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To be clear, NPOM is pretty much a pure policy vote on the grounds that if he's town he is a net negative who contributes nothing useful and is very likely to lose the game if left alive.
I had a weird associative case on the stungun/votato slots on night 1 when I replaced in but pretty much threw it in the garbage after seeing the flips. If we assume that scum weren't trying to double bus clidd for no reason, that pairing suddenly becomes a lot less likely. I think the HK 50 slot definitely isn't paired with the stungun slot either. Only plausible partner then is doctorpepper, I guess? Probably not voting CSF today. I think if anything best odds are probably in doctorpepper/looker here, both being off the clidd wagon. doctorpepper could make sense as a partner for anyone, looker only non-aligned with CSF.
If one of the 4 players I mentioned could do something townish, it would be great.- maxwell
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I don't claim this. If Looker/Nopower/Cat are an investigative role, they should claim now.In post 2006, Green Crayons wrote:I’m against a mass claim but favor a town investigator counter claiming bob if one exists.- maxwell
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In post 2011, Not_Mafia wrote:
Such as reading the gameIn post 2009, NoPowerOverMe wrote:we should be doing everything we can to lynch actual scum- maxwell
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This is bad? His vote was hanging on clidd until resistance to voting porkens made him join the flashwagon on gera. I mean, not impossible he was scum looking for an out but I would think he'd have done it a lot sooner. Like I said based on roleclaim and play toward the scum slot I'm pretty sure he's town here. More likely than not he was forced to switch by other people and the DP/HK 50 interactions look far worse in my opinion.In post 1050, bob3141 wrote:At the moment my gut instinct is that BM/clidd/porkens is scum. And ever since clidd got wagoned Hk has kept trying to deflect attention away from the Bm/clidd wagon. He even keeps trying to dismiss anything bm might have done as not ai.
Even though he started pushing back at green after green had asked him legitimate questions about how he managed to come to an opposite conclusion as to shogun. When he in fact used shogun's own statement to vote.
All the while Hk kept pushing a wagon against Dunn. And only now suddenly town reads dunn after his wagon had dropped down to 2 votes.- maxwell
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I unvoted because that was a shit vote from Looker who is occupying one of the slots in my PoE. I don't understand sheeping to a majority wagon while not being fully caught up with the game, when we have only 1 mis-elimination left. Don't give me shit about "unvoting for towncred" while you're simultaneously shading nopower.In post 2030, DoctorPepper wrote:This feels like you're reaching for town cred. You advocate for a PL (which is kinda iffy already at this state of the game) instead of scum read the slot and now you're backing of because they're at E-1?
The post seems so fake. Did you really think someone is gonna lolhammer?- maxwell
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I wanted pressure but my vote was based largely on emotion. Still, I meant what I said: if he is town, NoPower is effectively a 4th member of the scumteam. He is exerting no effort and is playing in a purely reactionary manner. He is very likely to be a continued detriment to the game. Still, I would prefer to be sure I'm voting scum, my suspicions of you & Looker stand as stated. I was willing to give Looker a chance to catch up and post content. His actions so far do not impress. You can keep trying to push me, it will end badly for you. - maxwell
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