Mini Normal 2148 (Post Game)

[stungun0404]

Hey everyone. Glad to join this game--been awhile since I last played!

I will read over the thread and form some opinions as soon as I can.

[stungun0404]

I am currently a few pages into reading, but would like to make a request. @HK50, I love your posting style -- so nothing against it -- but could you possibly use less sophisticated words to get your points across? I can understand what you are saying if I really spend time looking into your every post, but it is very hard to read some of your posts on the surface.

Another reason I ask this is because using a ton of more complicated words makes it more difficult than normal to read your intentions. This posting style could be extremely effective for scum to hide behind, because it is an easy way for them to blanket their intentions, because a lot more effort is needed than typical to truly assess their motives.

And if you are town, then it should make sense why this could become an issue. Because if people are having to spend too much time looking at a townplayer's posts to unpack their motives, it takes away from their focus of scumhunting, which absolutely could lead us down the wrong path in the long run.

[stungun0404]

I am currently a few pages into reading, but would like to make a request. @HK50, I love your posting style -- so nothing against it -- but could you possibly use less sophisticated words to get your points across? I can understand what you are saying if I really spend time looking into your every post, but it is very hard to read some of your posts on the surface.

Another reason I ask this is because using a ton of more complicated words makes it more difficult than normal to read your intentions. This posting style could be extremely effective for scum to hide behind, because it is an easy way for them to blanket their intentions, because a lot more effort is needed than typical to truly assess their motives.

And if you are town, then it should make sense why this could become an issue. Because if people are having to spend too much time looking at a townplayer's posts to unpack their motives, it takes away from their focus of scumhunting, which absolutely could lead us down the wrong path in the long run.

I completely agree with this, his posts are pretty unreadable for me too because of the format. But I also think it's a very conspicuous posting style and a lot of effort for scum to keep up with minimal value, so slight townlean. Like, if scum, why bother?

I can understand why you might gather a townlean from it, but at least for me I cannot say that it gives me any direction on his alignment. If someone reads a lot, using more difficult words can come naturally to them. In fact, I have played a game where I used a lot more sophisticated words than usual as mafia before, so knowing that I have done it as scum and it took very little effort for me means that I must be cautious if I see someone else doing it.

In the game where I was scum, I can cite some of the words that I used in one single analysis post during that game: exasperation, unfounded, prognostication, aforementioned, reinforces, ulterior, disconcerted, reiterating, conducive, bolsters, precedence.

There were more words, but you probably should get my point by now that if someone knows a lot of words, it could take very little effort to use more complicated words regardless of alignment. Town naturally should have more of a motive to make things easy-to-read for their fellow town members, so they should avoid using a bunch of difficult words.

[stungun0404]

Sorry to say, but I'm not a big fan of the gimmick. It makes it a bit of a chore to read the thread. It feels bad to vote them because of it and it feels bad to parse the posts.

Also, all the talk about past games is confusing. Could I convince you all to either stop/limit it or explain it to those of us who lack the context to interpret it?

It would be in bad taste to just justify a vote and a possible lynch off just that.

@malakittens: Why did you feel the need to point this out? I am curious. Ghost implied no intention to vote for him or justify a lynch for him -- but you randomly come to defend against a lynch/vote for HK50? How come?

[stungun0404]

eenie. meanie. miney. moe.

VOTE: farside

also obviously mala's suspicion of votato is bad, and her back-burner nonsense is silly, but lol nonetheless at farside and notscience

Literally my only early townlean from the first 3 pages, so put me in the crowd of how I don't get why you suspected farside as of that point in the game. I think they asked a great question to Dunnstral in post 20 that more likely than not comes from town in my opinion, although I could be wrong which is why it's limited to just a townlean.

Can someone also remind me how to link to certain posts on here? It has been awhile since I last had to do that.

[stungun0404]

29 from farside, my mistake. It was in response to Dunnstral's 20

[stungun0404]

You’re a towel

so very very useful?

I don't get to look at mafia much at the weekends, 5 pages of I have no clue what arguing about ?

Glad I am missing it...

you all do you, i'm going to wait until things become more clear

Stalling is anti-town, so no don't wait, try to get others to produce content instead by asking questions and engaging them in discussion. Scum, from my experience, stall frequently, so this officially puts you on my radar. Town should never feel like they can just wait on others to produce content in their absence.

[stungun0404]

OK, I'm halfway through the pages. Making progress!

Would like to know how many scum are typically in a 13 player game though? 2? 3? Or 4? I am guessing 3, but not sure.

[stungun0404]

I ask as at the moment i'm in a slight town reading mala. In my experience scum tends to avoid jumping on rvs wagons when they have already stacked up 3 votes. Either mala is scum and unafraid of the spotlight or as i feel at the moment a fellow townie that simply does not have anything to fear in the first place.

Only seen twice scum on 4thed place on rvs wagon. One was when scum was being rvs wagoned and the other was a scum player that spent much of the rest of the game jumping on wagons.


And mala comments on hk feel that it matches that pattern as well. Of a anotehr townie that inst afraid to get their neck stuck in and let thier views be known.

In my experience scum dont like being caught on large wagon in vs.

Take my last completed mini. Although i was on losing side if you looked back at day one. scum rvs voted me and as soon as i picked up my 4th vote. That Scum player was teh first to jump off. And infact tried to distance them selves from that wagon.

I like these points. It would be pretty bold, so fair enough for now. But still want to see how Malakittens responds to the question I proposed to them.

[stungun0404]

Either mala is scum and unafraid of the spotlight or as i feel at the moment a fellow townie that simply does not have anything to fear in the first place.

[Query:]

If your experience states that scum tends to hop off a band wagon during random voting, which for the record master I find to be a highly ridiculous notion, then what is your current position on my true alignment considering the after mention switch off?

This is a little bit of an odd focus, to my view, if you are town. Why do you want someone focusing on something you did rather than something someone else produced so you can have a better awareness of the gamestate if you are town? What benefit do you gain from this unless you are scum trying to get someone to read you a certain way?

I have also done something similar to this as scum, so that's a second red flag, and I am noting this.

[stungun0404]

What the fuck is my reaction to the current battle Mages posts.

@Notty:

Right now scum wise I’m kinda getting some pings, but nothing solid as of yet. {Vot, Dunn, BM}
I have more town pings than scum pings. {HK, bob}

Hmm, can understand the Bob town ping, but would like to hear more on why you suspect HK is town.

[stungun0404]

Hm. I really did just like HK 137. But I want to see how that progresses

That post has a bad gut feeling, but will wait for redemption

[Interrogation:

Master Malakitten, you have made several posts showing a stance without explaining it nor fully committing to it. Please explain your pings. Has the interaction with master bob3141 reached a finite conclusion read wise considering you town ping both of us?

Right now I’m liking bob’s posts. The way he’s going about is very similar to the last game we played together. I’m starting to see you scum hunting while you’re using your gimmick. A lot of players that use gimmicks hide behind it and don’t actually scum hunt. So that give me town pings.

Where as Battle Mange is the post I was referring to that felt a scum ping IMO. That’s way before he even thought I was OMGUSing him.

Never mind; see you answered the townread here, but if you have more reason to believe HK is town, please do let me know.

[stungun0404]

VOTE: Geraintm

Absolutely nothing in their ISO thus far points to scumhunting, and I do not like that. Especially paired together with their commitment to stalling that they admitted to in 108 by saying "you all do you, i'm going to wait until things become more clear."

That does not settle right with me at all.

[stungun0404]

@DoctorPepper, @Dunnstral, @Geraintm, @ Votato do you guys have any early townleans/town indications?

@NotScience, could you please lay a vote down somewhere? Doesn't matter if you pick the wrong person, a vote is better than no vote.

[stungun0404]

Hi friend I will vote when I am sober enough to Lynch some ecumfucks bc idk if you’ve tried but it’s hard to figure out ulterior motives while drunk but I’m good for it I promise or farside mala and dp will Lynch tf out of me

OK, I totally understand that, but will hold you accountable if I feel a vote is not committed to after granting you what I feel is a reasonable amount of time.

[stungun0404]

VOTE: Geraintm

Absolutely nothing in their ISO thus far points to scumhunting, and I do not like that. Especially paired together with their commitment to stalling that they admitted to in 108 by saying "you all do you, i'm going to wait until things become more clear."

That does not settle right with me at all.

I have nothing at the moment. day 1 people talk but it doesn't mean anything. votes are the important thing and there just haven't been many so far. I'm very much the type of person who looks at people's voting patterns and trying to either spot inconsistencies or really, really bad logic used to justify them

when I say you all do you, it is just me saying I don't have the mental capacity to argue over perceived slights, misunderstandings or whatever

Fervently disagree with D1 meaning nothing, and the reason why is because I have formed my best reads historically off D1 insights. It is possible to find an entire scum team on D1, and in that regard time has proven that my D1 reads are often my best of any day phase.

Why can't you read votes that have already occurred in this day phase and analyze them?

[stungun0404]

@DoctorPepper, I like that you are getting a lot of town reads, but OTOH I almost initially felt like you were getting too many, if that makes sense. But then again I feel like scum would not want to force themselves to townread so many players at such an early stage as to make it more difficult in the long run on themselves to vote certain players, without making those players suspicious of them for their earlier townreads. So townlean on you for now.

And to address why I felt you were getting too many, in your series of posts you mentioned farside town for sheeping, HK50 and Mala both town, GC town, stungun town, and a town feel on NS, and what seemed like an initial townlean on BM, which represents at least slight townleans/indications it appears on 7 different players, which is good to see if you are town, especially if they end up being right.

[stungun0404]

Would it help you to encourage different wagons to form then in order to try and see how things evolve?

[stungun0404]

Lol, that's funny enough to get me to move off your wagon

VOTE: Votato

[stungun0404]

votato, what are your thoughts on HK50?

[stungun0404]

Well, to be honest, you are a valid wagon now votato with mala and me on there (I think that's all)?

So I think you have two votes on you ATM.

[stungun0404]

probably town? Dunno, there are mostly just questions coming from hk and not much analysis

Not a bad point. Would like to see HK produce an analysis when they get the chance.

[stungun0404]

probably town? Dunno, there are mostly just questions coming from hk and not much analysis

I will say, I don't really like that your vote is on HK if you think he is probably town... we are past RVS.

[stungun0404]

What makes you think Mala might be scum? I am getting an opposite vibe right now. I could possibly see Bob as a deepwolf, but I am not really seeing Mala as suspicious.

[stungun0404]

@Votato, who do you think is most likely scum between geraintm, Dunnstral and Green Crayons?

If you give me a good enough response to this, I may be moved to vote elsewhere, so I really want to see some serious thought applied here.

[stungun0404]

Votato, I am going to sort through your meta to see if I confirm what you said about your activity levels.

In the meantime, would you be willing to vote geriantm?

[stungun0404]

Reason I ask is I am willing to go there, but it seems like there is a lack of push, and that makes it difficult to get anything going there.

[stungun0404]

Yeah, at the moment that is the only wagon which I would really like switching to.

[stungun0404]

You were town in this game and were very active at the start (22 posts on the first day and then a big analysis immediately starting the next day), which contradicts the activity argument.
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p11763957

And so did the newbie 2006 game you cited, you had 12 posts on the first day the game was available.
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p11902283

This game, you had 3 posts and then disappeared for about 3 days, until a wagon formed on you.

While you may be fairly active in some of your scum games, this evidence does not suggest that in your town games you are always lurking at the start. Thus, I don't think this initial analysis into your gameplay is very alignment-indicative, as it seems you are breaking pattern regardless of alignment.

[stungun0404]

OK, when you return, you know who I would like you to look into. In the meantime, I have no reason to move off of you because I honestly cannot verify from your meta that you are telling the truth.

[stungun0404]

Just noting that the vote on Votato is now L-2.

Be careful adding another vote, because votato could self-hammer, or someone else could before we get the chance to hear back from Votato, ending the day phase sooner than preferable.

[stungun0404]

GC has a fair point, geraintm is still voting not science based off RVS reasoning, which is just a very lazy vote park that is not seemingly going to get us anywhere this day phase. I'm not real fond of it.

If he's town, it's as though he is playing a scared game, and I also don't really like that. If he is scum, it makes sense; he wants to stay in the background.

@GC: if you had to guess, what do you think geraintm's alignment is?

[stungun0404]

Does anyone have experience with scum Dunnstral? I have only played with town Dunnstral as scum to my recollection (2 times).

I know that as town he is not the hardest player to sort, but he still is a little bit tricky. He is easier to sort than nm for sure.

Also, he might get easier by the day, but he also might not. So I am not totally against a lynch there, but would just prefer to keep him in for two reasons. One is he is one of the few players I have experience with, so I might be able to read him better as the game progresses. And two, I do not really find what he has done so far to be super scummy, and if anything the push against him gives me a slight intuition he might be town. I could be wrong there, and I would like to see him post more, but I am not super suspicious.

I do think it is very likely, however, that if one Votato/Dunn is scum, the other is not, and should be assumed to be town. I just don't see them as connected, as votato has made very little mention of Dunn in his posts and Dunn throwing votato out of the blue as a scum partner to someone... wouldn't seem like the smartest plan if they were scum partners? I mean, that's a little bold, drawing that much attention to you

and

your partner?

[stungun0404]

are you trying to frame me? rofl

[stungun0404]

Why is BM becoming a valid counterwagon? I see no logical reason to vote them... at all.

[stungun0404]

VOTE: Dunnstral

I'm game for applying pressure elsewhere, and seeing what happens, as I could see a realm where Dunn is scum.That, and I'm curious why he is still voting for malakittens.

L-2

[stungun0404]

I have some ideas and a possible lead on one particular player who I feel is likely to flip scum, but I don't currently want to distract away from both the Dunnstral push and the Geriantm push, because I

really

want to see more from both of them. So, Dunnstral and geriantm, if either of you are town please help me by eliminating yourself as a distraction, and showing pro-town, gamesolving intent.

[stungun0404]

I have some ideas and a possible lead on one particular player who I feel is likely to flip scum, but I don't currently want to distract away from both the Dunnstral push and the Geriantm push, because I

really

want to see more from both of them. So, Dunnstral and geriantm, if either of you are town please help me by eliminating yourself as a distraction, and showing pro-town, gamesolving intent.

I think people should be less focused on me, personally

OK, though I would like to know two things: what are your current stances on who is scum/town?

Battle Mage -- town?

and Mala -- mafia? Is that all?

And are you willing to vote anyone else?

[stungun0404]

So you see a Mala-Farside-??? scum team as of right now? Interesting... I don't quite agree with that, but I'm also not sure that is an angle scum would be trying to push right now under pressure.

I do agree, however, with not thinking BM is scummy.

Where do you think geraintm fits in, if you had to guess?

[stungun0404]

So Dunn is not supporting any counterwagons. Hmm... that makes me think, that he's not out for scum self-preservation? It's not super strong conviction, but it just doesn't make sense if he is scum. His ploy would have to be "I'm going to play super nonchalant here to get people off my wagon without pushing any counterevidence that could lead others elsewhere and off of my tracks." That is a hard scum strategy to indeed play and convince others of, so I'm not currently getting a scum vibe out of that. I think we are better off lynching elsewhere today.

VOTE: GC

[stungun0404]

You are still ignoring dunn contradiction why?

I think GC is scummier and has more contradictions and more of what I find to be a scummy agenda. Will post more on that soon.

[stungun0404]

stungun's scum meter is strong on GC, and here is why I am suspicious...

I feel a blatant, scummy narrative to GC's posts looking through their ISO. If you look at the tone throughout his ISO, there is a clear discrediting tone to it; one that scum could hide behind to advance their agenda. Any and all town leans/vibes are very weakly supported, if at all. In fact, the only ones I see are ns and HK "pumping town vibes" in 175, and a lean towards Geriantm!town in 395, but do note that I had to prompt that read from him, and thus it was not naturally expressed on his own. Further, assuming those reads are town, those are good and convenient townreads for scum to make as they are distractions scum could potentially keep alive. As I addressed earlier, HK's motives can be harder to read based off the language he uses, and Geriantm has provided very little content so far, and has been a clear distraction. Further, Notscience seems like a difficult lynch to obtain, and so supporting a townread there also makes theoretical sense, perhaps even to buddy NS?

Meanwhile, since GC provided no support at all to those town indications, he seems to be setting himself up so that he can flip easily later. Outside of those poorly supported reads, the best he has done is sticking up for votato in 315 without explicitly calling him town. He just says "the votes are lazy, I bet one of you are scum."

But then he contradicts that a few posts later into his ISO, suddenly flipping and discrediting votato in 396 by saying "Gross, now votato is acting suspicious." Followed by in 398 declaring that the humor of his scum partner post "is clearly forced." Still, he never seems like he is considering hopping on to the votato wagon, only discredits.

Further discrediting can be found of bob in 177 that "Bob's posts look like scum trying to effort." Meanwhile, Bob is a pretty well townread player so far, so this definitely sticks out in terms of calling him scummy. It just feels like he is trying to fit bob there, conveniently, so maybe he can vote him later. He also discredited my earliest town read, farside, as well while reasoning that what I found

actually

made dunn look scummier in 228.

Also took a weird stance on BM that his vote on Votato "looked made up" in 421, which does not exactly seem like the best reason to vote BM if you ask me. Also, I do not know if it is a natural town instinct to come to a conclusion that a vote "is made up", just seems like a forced scum conclusion, but maybe I am wrong there.

So, clearly I find so much emphasis on discrediting others in his ISO, and very little support of any players or reasons given to advance that certain players are not scummy/are townie.

This would be a very easy approach for scum to take.

Further, it seems that technically

GC supports all of Votato, Dunnstral, and Battle Mage being lynched based off their content so far. The fact that they are somewhat supporting all three of the current majority wagons, and also maintaining suspicions of bob, farside, Mala, and others makes it seem like GC's intent is to pin others against each other while GC sits back and watches town get confused

. This does not feel like town trying to sort, it feels like scum aggressively trying to keep options open. Further, throughout his ISO it feels like he is basically willing to lynch anybody except himself, which obviously gives more of an unsettling scum narrative vibe than a town one.

Also, the redirection back to Dunnstral's lynch in 453 reinforces my point that GC is all right with pretty much any way the lynch goes, as long as it's not him.

And yet, he is NOT voting dunnstral right now. He is voting Battle Mage.

Clear scum here, to me.

@anyone who looks at GC's ISO: What is GC's incentive, thus far, if they are town? What in their ISO suggests that they are NOT scum with the intent to discredit others?

Finally, are others down to potentially lynching GC?

[stungun0404]

Someone give me the short version of why we’re voting gc I was leaning town there

He doesn't like that I voice suspicions of players without some sort of counterbalancing of voicing my opinion about players who are town (even though elsewhere he recognizes that I do that too).

Yeah, don't trust this take...

[stungun0404]

Further discrediting can be found of bob in 177 that "Bob's posts look like scum trying to effort." Meanwhile, Bob is a pretty well townread player so far, so this definitely sticks out in terms of calling him scummy. It just feels like he is trying to fit bob there, conveniently, so maybe he can vote him later. He also discredited my earliest town read, farside, as well while reasoning that what I found

actually

made dunn look scummier in 228.

lol

"discrediting" is the loaded term you're using for me calling someone scummy

okay

When you do it enough times, it takes on a discrediting tone.

Further, it seems that technically

GC supports all of Votato, Dunnstral, and Battle Mage being lynched based off their content so far. The fact that they are somewhat supporting all three of the current majority wagons, and also maintaining suspicions of bob, farside, Mala, and others makes it seem like GC's intent is to pin others against each other while GC sits back and watches town get confused

. This does not feel like town trying to sort, it feels like scum aggressively trying to keep options open. Further, throughout his ISO it feels like he is basically willing to lynch anybody except himself, which obviously gives more of an unsettling scum narrative vibe than a town one.

This is a legitimately bad understanding of developing D1 reads.

Also

and I'll attribute your mischaracterization of my stance on votato to your single-mindedness to Present A Scum Case and be a good town

I don't support a votato lynch, and have never said I did.

ALSO also


lol Mala is a null as I've said before


Hot damn you really wanted to make a case. Congrats, I suppose.

also obviously mala's suspicion of votato is bad, and her back-burner nonsense is silly, but lol nonetheless at farside and notscience

I’m townreading the whole wagon, who do you think is scum on it?

mala or bob, with me leaning towards bob

False. These posts clearly suggest that mala is scummy to you.

[stungun0404]

Stun I’m like 73% sure everything you listed is just how most oldies play and not really as alignment indicative as you think

I don't think that's true... I'm fairly convinced GC is scum and on D1 when I get that feeling it usually is right, although there are expections.

Why do you trust GC?

[stungun0404]

@Mala, I understand that you disagree with my Dunn flip, but what are your thoughts on my GC case? I have expressed more confidence in that read.

[stungun0404]

Votato's GC vote was really bad

Think they could be partners?

[stungun0404]

you're awfully defensive GC. your tone doesn't seem very town to me.

in fact, you remind me a lot of mathblade!scum. If others aren't sold on GC so far outside of the ones on his wagon, I can show you similarities between GC's game this game and a game I played where Mathblade was scum, because in some ways they have been strikingly similar.

[stungun0404]

It's like you're scum and taunting me.

see your taunts directed at me

I taunt bad cases on obvious town.

What makes you obvious town? idgi

[stungun0404]

OK,

assuming you are by chance town, the only possible alternative I can see at the moment is BM in the corresponding scum slot that I think you are in now. It is a very clear either/or situation to me, because nothing makes sense without one of you being scum. So your best bet is probably to try and sway me on why he is scummier than you.

I still am heavily biased towards thinking you are the scum there, though.

[stungun0404]

Neat.

I've already tried to get you to engage with my BM suspicions. You've ignored me. I also just expounded on them. You're ignoring that as well.

Just a minute. I will look over it.

in the corresponding scum slot

Also, I cannot express enough how bad it is to try to fill up scum team slots in D1. Associative suspicions are practically worthless in D1 without flips.

Things like this have worked for me before on D1. I can remember a few times I have done it before off the top of my head, but there probably are more somewhere.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10269994

I made a hot take that all scum were in a group of 4 players, which actually ended up being correct, because all three scum were in that group of players.

Now granted, I replaced out of that game early, but when I get a strong intuition about scum on D1, my past games have proven that I am best to follow it.

Also did it in another game on D1 here
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10373659
And my later intuition that Kokichi was clearly the scum between the two after analyzing everyone on D1 was correct.

I can remember another game on another site that I had really really strong reads on all the scum on D1, so all I am saying is if I get really strong intuitions that something is the case on D1, I have yet to see/don't recall that it has been proven wrong. I have been consistent in how I have formed those reads too; it seems it has helped more than hurt town.

[stungun0404]

If it works for you though, it can be a good thing. It's up to your playstyle IMO.

Others might not see where I get my logic from, but I am confident in the source of how I obtain it.

[stungun0404]

Also, it's not that I am looking for associatives in the sense of who is working together, but more I am looking to make sense of the game from the standpoint of "the game only makes sense if one of these players is scum", and the alternative makes absolutely no sense.

There are ways to read into that on D1, such as vote pushes for example.

Now I will look into your bm suspicion, GC.

[stungun0404]

OK, so I am going to try my best to summarize GC's case on BM from what I gather, because I have been having a little bit of trouble interpreting it fully on the surface:
first, GC suspects one of the votes on the original Votato wagon to be scum between me, ns, Bob, mala, and BM, because the votes were lazy on that wagon.
GC finds BM scummy because his vote on Votato looks made up, because BM said he liked my meta analysis on Votato which said what he has done so far is NAI, but because BM thought Votato was scummy for what I analyzed. So GC finds BM to voting Votato there not because he thinks Votato is truly scummy, but instead extending my NAI read on Votato to mean he is scummy? In some ways, I can understand this logic here, but in other ways this seems a little bit of a stretch, so I'm conflicted looking at this reasoning? BM could have just voted Votato on the basis of not seeing anything scummier to that point, so I feel like the better argument would be that he's not properly scumhunting, and thus he is scum assuming your vantage point is town. He simply is feeding off of my read, and interpreting ~ to be scummy based off of that, using my analysis to both shield him and pocket me.

So, yes I will concede overall to GC that is a little bit of a poor push, which is what aided me in concluding that one of you has to be scum because conceivably that push could be an instance of scum not truly scumhunting, but faking it. OTOH, you know I have already felt strong about you, GC, and so from my perspective seeing BM's push together with my read on you, I can't possibly see a gamestate where neither of you are scum.

OK, you also have a fair point in the fact that BM is conflicting himself in 404 by keeping his vote on Votato while saying "last time I saw something like this, it flipped town, but what can you do about it?" That is honestly weird, but in your case I noted the same thing with you voting BM while pushing Dunnstral, so I have seen this in effect from both of you, and thus by this logic too it does not make sense that both of you are town.

I am just honestly stuck in a situation right now where I am not yet convicted enough in BM's scumminess yet to move my vote off you, especially since something you have done ended up being a reason you are pushing BM.

525] You also made a case against BM here, but I am having trouble understanding this push, so it will take a little extra parsing, but I will attempt to understand what is scummy about it from your vantage point as soon as I can.

[stungun0404]

Yeah, that's strange, I'm ngl... I will need explanation for that.

[stungun0404]

you're awfully defensive GC. your tone doesn't seem very town to me.

in fact, you remind me a lot of mathblade!scum. If others aren't sold on GC so far outside of the ones on his wagon, I can show you similarities between GC's game this game and a game I played where Mathblade was scum, because in some ways they have been strikingly similar.

I've never played with mathblade scum and think only one town game for one day. So it's a bit hard to get the tell tale signs that you've seen in math that you claim to believe that green is also exhibiting this game.

Are you saying you can see scum motivation behind some of greens actions that mirror what a mathblade would do in this game. Or more general thing.

Multiple things -- tone seems similar, for one. And two, lots of filler posts saying "Ew/gross/this looks bad", but not really elaborating on them, simply pointing them out.

I found it weird that Math did that in that game, and knowing now that he was indeed scum (although a lot of people wrongly townread him), it makes me wary of GC.

Here was my suspicion in that game, which turned out to be right:
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10351600
essentially, this part: "@mathblade, what is eww about my post. why should i shield that we’ve won a game together before? also gives her a hint of what to expect regarding my townplay —> even though the game we played together was micro and this is much different as it is a large game.

scum could easily say ‘eww’ to something just to bring attention to it

—> so explain what you have bad feelings about please."

Meaning that those "looks bad/gross/this is bad logic/etc." posts are merely filler meaning to draw attention to certain posts, without really explaining anything. I swear, mathblade did that a lot in that game, and I have seen similar from GC in this game.


They both have been similar in activity level too. Mathblade had way more posts than any town member even after replacing into the game (1385, while a scum mate also had 1380, and the most any town player was 1264).

Here, GC is similarly dominating with far and away more posts than anyone else right now, and quite a bit of filler especially in some of his posts.

He has 97 posts, whereas 2nd most is NS at 75, followed by me with 56 after this one.

Because of all these similarities, I find it will be hard for me not to believe GC is scum.

[stungun0404]

*especially in some of his earlier posts

[stungun0404]

Here's a town game of GC's that looks remarkably different from this game of his (compare his ISO here).

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... %5B%5D=150
Lots of townreads, and lots of observing good things about players.

Here in this game, very minimal townreads, and a lot of observing bad things about players, which seems shady compared to his ISO from that game.

[stungun0404]

Just wasted my time looking at a couple Not_Mafia games, Open 779 (scum) and Newbie 1985 (town). Pretty redundant in both, similar posting style and attitude, slightly more trigger happy with the vote as scum but nothing much to get excited about. So could go either way here, and expect more of the same.

In other news, I've decided HK 50 is actually town, and figured out the most likely reason why Green Crayons voted Dunnstral. So that's something!

This is perhaps the one post BM has made that makes me reluctant to think he's scum. I got a very weak townlean out of it. I don't necessarily have that post yet with GC, but feel very confident in one of them being scum so that is definitely where I would like to lynch today.

I almost feel like scum doesn't even bother with trying to sort nm through meta (the nullest player there is), but granted he does not come up with a concrete conclusion for it, so it's not like he takes a hard stance or anything. So in the end, I am not sure what I should take from this, although I know that early on it was a reason for a slight townlean on BM.

This, of course assumes BM has experience with nm, though.

OTOH, with BM, I don't spot any sense of urgency in his scumhunting pursuit, and I don't like having that feel.

I'm not against voting him out, and would prefer him over Dunnstral because there is more substance there, as there really isn't much substance to a Dunn lynch except for a few posts made at the beginning of the game that really could just be town making a few early-game declarations based off what they felt which have been taken out of context. That said, I am open to potentially lynching him tomorrow, provided today's flip is scum. I really don't feel confident yet on Dunn flipping scum, especially since there has seemed to be little pushback to his wagon since the votato wagon dissolved. That is, taking away my own push/case on GC.

[stungun0404]

I find it weird that geraintm and dunn are suddenly coming out of the woodwork sticking up for BM, and dunn has already stuck up against geraintm being lynched, and geraintm weakly against dunn? Anyone else find this strange?

[stungun0404]

thought I would lok over Dunnstral, as they are currently the biggest wagon.

they are throwing arounda bunch of "they are mafia" posts very easily.
they have a few posts where they say they think someone is town.

they seem a bit trigger happy with their calling people scum, but overall...nothing here I am too upset about yet.

dunn has already stuck up against geraintm being lynched, and geraintm weakly against dunn

Can you pull what you're referencing here?

Where do you think geraintm fits in, if you had to guess?

I don't know, I wouldn't lynch himr ight now

thought I would lok over Dunnstral, as they are currently the biggest wagon.

they are throwing arounda bunch of "they are mafia" posts very easily.
they have a few posts where they say they think someone is town.

they seem a bit trigger happy with their calling people scum, but overall...nothing here I am too upset about yet.

[stungun0404]

VOTE: BM

I am starting to get a sense that he is the true scum between him/GC; the lack of proactivity/genuine scumhunting from him is pretty damning.

[stungun0404]

So far, I feel good in asserting these players as more likely town than not: Not Science, farside, Dr. Pepper, Mala
Gut is also leaning town with Bob.

That means I think in all likelihood all scum have to be in this group of 7 players {NM, geraintm, GC, HK, Dunnstral, votato, BM}

[stungun0404]

My scum read vouching against the biggest wagon and voting for NM instead without supplying much info does not sit well with me tbh

He's not pushing a counterwagon likely to gain traction though? What do you make of that?

[stungun0404]

Further, I can see why scum!stungun would want to have votato on that wagon: scapegoat. Assuming scum!stungun and town!germ., votato would of look horrendous if the mislynch went through having hoped on while being pressured. This buys mafia another free lynch potentially without much effort.

Depending on if someone like Dunn

All in all, I dont believe the votato interaction by stungun was done for what was claimed. I wouldnt be surprised if Dunnstral is scum and stungun picked to pressure other LHFesk players in a bid to protect Dunnstral.

Can you please finish what all you have to say in the bolded area? As it is, it doesn't exactly end naturally, and I want to hear what all you have to say here before I react.

Also there’s something not sitting right with me about SG vote, but I have to go look at his ISO. I need to sleep though for my rotation. I gotta be up in a few hours so I’ll do it while I’m on the tour

I just want a placeholder so I remember to do so

LMK if you have any questions. I've been convinced for some time that it is inevitable that one of GC/BM flips scum, however I am not certain which one will. Their interactions seem too forced to be T vs. T, and so it makes much better sense if one is in fact scum (perhaps threatened by the other one?). I don't think both are scum, however, so I am trying to find out which one is town but am having little success.

Ultimately though since I am so confident one of them is scum, I want to lynch in that pool, and right now I am favoring going after BM's replacement --> Clidd. Still, I seek to hear Clidd out once he returns with his analyses, and am by no means set on him.

I don't have this same level of confidence going for other available lynches, like Dunn for example. That said, Dunn could very well be scum, but since he's posted such little content I have found him to be a frustratingly tough player to sort.

[stungun0404]

V/LA until Monday

Will try to post when I can though.

[stungun0404]

That’s what bothered me is I’m like I read SG going after GC but why is he voting Bm?!?

lol

lol because

stun has shaded me for doing the exact same thing (saying I'm suspicious of Dunn but also voting BM)


eagerly awaiting to see if stun will have a moment of clarity

Not the exact same thing. You are twisting it a little bit there. I have not advocated for your lynch/actively pushed evidence for others to vote you since I switched to voting BM, whereas in your case you were actively stuck on voting BM while pushing evidence to support a Dunnstral lynch, which is highly inconsistent and only can encourage what was already the biggest wagon that has formed this day phase. Thus, those are two entirely different scenarios. How, then, are they the exact same thing?


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Like, 637 suggests you would at least want to vote NM instead of your random vote.

But nope.

Are you paralyzed by doubt? Lazy? Scum? Who knows!

You *not* updating your vote is going to make sorting you much more difficult in later days.

doubt I guess. I want my vote to actually mean something. i'd rather everyone placed fully formed votes, rather than people who place 27 in a day. that isn't helpful either when trying to sort them. at least you know when I vote I mean it.

IMO, not all votes

should

mean you want that person lynched.

Why? There are a lot of reasons -- let me bullet point them for you.

• Votes can simply be for pressure purposes to see how others respond when their backs are against the wall. Their reactions, or even lack of one sometimes, can indicate whether they are pro-town or pro-scum, and hence reveal their alignment. Thus, by simply using your vote to pressure others, you can gather useful reactions for you to look back at later.

• Once some flips are obtained, you can look back and see who was defended against the pressure you applied after flips, who distracted away from it, or even took the pressure you applied and furthered it against somebody, using it as a reason for someone else to vote that person themselves. Sometimes, but not always, the ones that sheep you aren't really scumhunting, and are merely looking for shields.

• Also, you can look at if the person you voted for simply for pressure purposes tries to turn things around back on you in a scummy fashion. Like, are they taking things out of context in a way that scum might? This can be extremely valuable information as you are sorting players in the game.

• All this information becomes more and more useful as the game progresses. Sometimes, it is all we have to go off of as town. Thus, you want your intent here to look like you are sorting players so you don't become a distraction.

• Further, you show town that you are looking for scum if you are pressuring different wagons (with reason of course) and gauging reactions to them. This implies to other townplayers that you are town and they can eliminate from their scumpool. Provided you are town, you want to be careful to convey to town that you are not scum so you do not get mislynched, whether this day phase or a later one.

• I can tell you one thing from experience. By not being proactive on D1, in this sense you rob not only yourself as a townplayer from all the above opportunities that could help later on in the game, but you also rob the rest of town, which means I think it is not best townplay on D1.

Can you see my points here? Anything you disagree with or cannot understand?

--------------------------


I also agree with Mala that I also would not want you to skate through this game as scum behind what would be a lazy facade here for scum to implement. And I also used to be mislynched a lot D1, or at the very least was very much mislynch bait like Mala said she has been as town, but I have certainly become a more difficult D1 lynch as town over time.

[stungun0404]

I have not advocated for your lynch/actively pushed evidence for others to vote you since I switched to voting BM, whereas in your case you were actively stuck on voting BM while pushing evidence to support a Dunnstral lynch, which is highly inconsistent and only can encourage what was already the biggest wagon that has formed this day phase. Thus, those are two entirely different scenarios. How, then, are they the exact same thing?

You suspect both BM and GC, and switched from voting GC to BM. You obviously still suspect GC. Mala finds that suspicious.

I suspect both Dunn and BM, and switched from voting Dunn to BM. I obviously still suspect Dunn. stun finds that suspicious.

ToWn CaN sUsPeCt MuLtIpLe PeOpLe At ThE sAmE tImE.

Yeah, I guess the only reason I suspected you in this case was because Dunnstral was the leading wagon, whereas in my case neither BM nor GC have been leading wagons this day phase.

But your point is fair enough.

[stungun0404]

*Note to respond to Bob later, when I have more time.

In the meantime, something interesting has captured my attention...

@Clidd, once you catch up, how do you feel about the alignments of HK50 and Votato? And why?
@HK50, how do you feel about the alignments of Clidd and Votato? And why?
@Votato, how do you feel about the alignments of Clidd and HK50? And why?

I will explain why I am asking these questions later. Perhaps tomorrow?

[stungun0404]

I don't have this same level of confidence going for other available lynches, like Dunn for example. That said, Dunn could very well be scum, but since he's posted such little content I have found him to be a frustratingly tough player to sort.

He’s had more stances than not mafia, do you have a read on the latter

Yes I do. A slight one. I've played with nm 2 games where he was town, and 1 where he was scum. While he is tough to read, I am inclined to think that this game resembles his town game slightly more based off the way his posts have felt than his scum game. Overall, I am nulltown on nm.

I wouldn't want to lynch him rn, but if all my current scumleans/null reads don't finish off the scum, he'd be someone to reconsider.

I’m caught up

Stun gun is very wordy and I think it’s weird he asked the robot to be less though but I’m not sure it’s AI or not but man that guy can type some long posts

Didn't ask him to be less wordy; asked him to use less complicated words in his posts so that they are more understandable.

[stungun0404]

Mage(BM)/votato/Dunn

Close nm, but I think the scumteam is BM-Votato-HK. There is a clear link there, and I'm going to explain what I see there soon.

[stungun0404]

I'm sorry, but I'm not really motivated rn with this game (and I'm not white sure why). I'll try to self-motivated myself tonight.

Are you demotivated

because

you are scum?

Eerily, Clidd also said he would post reads within 24 hours, but we have now given them >36 hours and still nothing. He said “I’ll post tomorrow” in 630, but never did. We should hold him accountable, as I'd think town would have posted why there's been nothing by now and not waste time.

My case is that his posts suck and he has no reason for his vote in the first place

Dunn, BM is very scummy because of his vote on Votato. He takes my NAI analysis and twists it so that it is AI on Votato himself and votes Votato based off of how he twisted it in 343. However, later he has absolutely no explanation to give about this when put on the spot by GC, given his 522 which can be taken as "give me some time to come up with a good answer for this, because I don't have one right now". Definitely has the feel of scum looking to buy time. Wouldn't a townplayer be able to answer GC's simple question in 520 right away regarding why my NAI analysis was AI out of

pure

conviction? What about that does not make him scum looking to buy time for themselves to explain something unreasonable?


The eventual explanation he provides is weak sauce too, in 518

Why do I think he concluded that it was in fact AI/Votato was scummy? I think they are scumpartners, and BM needed some reason to join the Votato wagon, as there were already 3 votes there (Mala/me/Bob), and obviously scum at some point has to join a wagon on their own to distance in case a lynch happens!

If GC and I can agree on BM!scum after I really thought GC was scum earlier, then there really must be something to this that others should consider.

[stungun0404]

* His original explanation; noting that BM had another one in 573, but it did take him a long time to actually voice it.

On another note, I have luckily found enough time the last handful of days to build individual cases with a spoiler each of evidence on why each of BM/Clidd-Votato and HK are linked. I silently gathered evidence after getting a suspicion about them being linked Thursday before I finally convinced myself well enough to question them yesterday. I will submit the cases I have gathered here in a minute.

[stungun0404]

Let's start with a Votato!Scumteam Case. Through his posts is where it all starts making sense! Even though he was a null read for me, he’s the link that makes so much sense between my two biggest scumleans of HK and BM/Clidd.

The Votato post is easily the longest of the three, b/c there’s the most evidence, so be prepared this one's a bit longer than the others.

There’s also reason to believe Dunnstral is town from this evidence.

Spoiler: Scumteam Case from Votato's posts

Look at this, the first RVS vote from Votato:

VOTE: hk 50 i know that you're really an assassin droid

Instance attempt at a distancing vote? Note the wording: I "know" that you are really an "assassin droid".

How can you "know" that he is an "assassin droid" unless you are, in fact, scum with him?

Dunnstral even called this out in 20, of all players, which completely makes sense from a town!Dunnstral perspective.

Town or scum im enjoying hk-50 commitment for posting style.

He's scum with votato, but I'll let him live for being amusing

Dunnstral clarified later to farside that he vaguely saw that as a partner post. I can see it that way too.

Then there is also a reason to link BM with Votato, also based off Votato's posting: Votato did vote Battle Mage early on too. He even voteparked there early on for 25 posts in his ISO (so if BM was lynched that could serve as distancing). However, when it counted most it seems that he has, in fact, been resistant to that wagon. This is in spite of expressing "a willingness to lynch there" in 555

VOTE: crayons there are no current good wagons, my vote is on BM as a placeholder ffs.

Votato votes GC, sheeping me because of my good case, as mentioned in Votato's 456. However, scum has incentive to use me as a shield to themselves so that they are the ones that are not at fault after a mislynch. Assuming GC!town, Votato can deny responsibility because I was the one who made the push, and him the one that sheeped it.

in one post Votato says, while his vote sheeps me on GC:

yeah at this point im fine with a GC or BM lynch.

But then when I flip to BM, Votato proves this wrong because he starts defending BM, and not flipping to vote him with me.

VOTE: BM

I am starting to get a sense that he is the true scum between him/GC; the lack of proactivity/genuine scumhunting from him is pretty damning.

The very next post, Votato says:

Gc why do you want to flip bm if you think he'll flip town?

This distracts away from my BM vote, all the while allowing himself to defend the GC vote even more, and bringing attention to the player I flipped from, GC, calling him out on an inconsistency.

In essence, Votato is defending BM subtly, and has expressed no willingness in his ISO since then to move over to him, even though he declared at an earlier point "I am fine lynching either of BM or GC." His actions suggest otherwise. It suggests that perhaps Votato is afraid of moving over to BM, because that would make a majority wagon, as it would cause a tie in votes between BM and Dunnstral. This would cause BM, in turn, to be considered more seriously by others. Seems like a natural reaction that could happen when one is presented with the chance to put a partner of their's in danger.

[stungun0404]

Next, a very short case on association from HK50's posts. HK has really not talked at all about either of Votato or BM in a scummy sense, but also doesn't really appear to be truly scumhunting in general. So that is something to keep an eye on.

Further, HK is on the counterwagon of Dunnstral, which could be seen as protecting a potential partner in Clidd/BM.

HK is only voting Dunnstral, per his 307 because "he agrees with what has been said about him." This is a lazy sheep vote. Does that seem like genuine scumhunting to you? Especially since he's voteparked there?

Spoiler: Scumteam Case from HK's posts

HK interestingly utilized my interactions with Votato against me to support cases that are a bit of a stretch about me being scum, in his 607.

Further, HK also conveniently flipped on his early town indication on me he expressed in 304, saying that he "felt better about me" because he thinks I used "bad townie logic." But then, suddenly in 607, in my interactions with Votato, he frames it so that he can make me look scummier AND concludes nothing negative on Votato, perhaps making his partner look better?

[stungun0404]

Finally, from the BM/Clidd angle, which is long like the Votato one, but all but seals the deal on this scumteam for me.

Spoiler: Scumteam Case from BM's posts

First note: when the Votato wagon was a thing. Guess who was on the wagon? That's right! Battle Mage joined it 4th (after Mala/me/Bob) and did so with very weak reasoning in his 343, while HK remained on Dunnstral (the majority wagon with limited pushback). This holds true to the theory of scum having to distance on a possible majority wagon on a partner, but also having to join a wagon on a partner.

I am currently a few pages into reading, but would like to make a request. @HK50, I love your posting style -- so nothing against it -- but could you possibly use less sophisticated words to get your points across? I can understand what you are saying if I really spend time looking into your every post, but it is very hard to read some of your posts on the surface.

Another reason I ask this is because using a ton of more complicated words makes it more difficult than normal to read your intentions. This posting style could be extremely effective for scum to hide behind, because it is an easy way for them to blanket their intentions, because a lot more effort is needed than typical to truly ***ess their motives.

And if you are town, then it should make sense why this could become an issue. Because if people are having to spend too much time looking at a townplayer's posts to unpack their motives, it takes away from their focus of scumhunting, which absolutely could lead us down the wrong path in the long run.

I completely agree with this, his posts are pretty unreadable for me too because of the format. But I also think it's a very conspicuous posting style and a lot of effort for scum to keep up with minimal value, so slight townlean.

Like, if scum, why bother?

Battle Mage also sticks up for HK here. And is interestingly the first and only if I remember correctly to stick up for him there.

Votato votes are lazy. I bet one of y'all are scum.

Challenge accepted!

VOTE: Votato

I like the meta analysis by stungun, clearly nobody is getting behind Green Crayons, and I think I'm townleaning Dunnstral. And seriously, voting BM on Day 1? This dude has run out of ideas...

Here is the weak reason BM joined the Votato wagon: it was after interpreting my NAI meta analysis to be

AI

. That is a stretch. Is it because they are scum partners?

@Votato:

are you a pathetic *** scum?

A little harsh, but I did employ some artistic licence

On serious note,

Green Crayons queuing up Votato for some dodgy self-meta; 2 scum down?

BM sets up a GC link to Votato, interestingly, perhaps to mislynch later if Votato flips?

Does anyone have experience with scum Dunnstral? I have only played with town Dunnstral as scum to my recollection (2 times).

I know that as town he is not the hardest player to sort, but he still is a little bit tricky. He is easier to sort than nm for sure.

Also, he might get easier by the day, but he also might not. So I am not totally against a lynch there, but would just prefer to keep him in for two reasons. One is he is one of the few players I have experience with, so I might be able to read him better as the game progresses. And two, I do not really find what he has done so far to be super scummy, and if anything the push against him gives me a slight intuition he might be town. I could be wrong there, and I would like to see him post more, but I am not super suspicious.

I do think it is very likely, however, that if one Votato/Dunn is scum, the other is not, and should be ***umed to be town. I just don't see them as connected, as votato has made very little mention of Dunn in his posts and Dunn throwing votato out of the blue as a scum partner to someone... wouldn't seem like the smartest plan if they were scum partners? I mean, that's a little bold, drawing that much attention to you

and

your partner?

I've seen scum-Dunnstral once. He tried harder than this and seemed more engaged in a game where he replaced in maybe 60 pages deep - definitely feels town here. Agree with top half of your post, last para doesn't sound right to me. In my recent experience, scum often make little mention of their buddies to avoid ***ociations being drawn.

But lynching Vot-scum first is the play, and then decide whether to bite for his stungun 'slip'. Gut says probably not

.

He still is sheeping me on Votato because of my "meta analysis", but he again is the only one to throw out the possibility of Votato and me in fact being scum together, actually taking Votato's "slip" post somewhat seriously, which is so called a "slip" because of these posts from Votato:

i have a little but i cant talk about it. by day 2 or 3 ill probably give some more details. as for the ***ociation you're drawing between me and dunn, stun, you're right that we aren't scumbuddies, but i dont think your reasons why are all that strong.

plus the only reason you know that is cuz you and i are scumbuddies

.

*** wrong thread.

Finally, the icing on the cake:

i have a little but i cant talk about it. by day 2 or 3 ill probably give some more details. as for the association you're drawing between me and dunn, stun, you're right that we aren't scumbuddies, but i dont think your reasons why are all that strong. plus the only reason you know that is cuz you and i are scumbuddies.

*** wrong thread.

Last time I saw something like this it flipped town, but what can ya do!?

He uses this scumslip for reason to townread Votato

I am convinced this is the scum team. I think we should lynch them consecutively.

Also note all three of Votato, BM and GC have weakly sheep-voted people, using players as shields.

Votato sheeping me immediately onto GC, BM very weakly sheeping me onto Votato, and HK weakly sheeping Farside and others onto Dunnstral without bringing any new evidence to the table regarding Dunnstral!scum.

Thus, it seems voting Clidd is the right move here.

[stungun0404]

Hun im not letting go of my vote on dunn till he explains his scum read on mala and why what she said was scummy when he thought the same thing.
If you continue to let him bypass that he will continue to do shit fucking all to explain

I can understand why you feel that way, but have you played with Dunnstral where he was town before? I know he does things like that sometimes which make him lynchbait as town. I remember two games, in fact, where he seemed like an easy mislynch in games where I was scum.

[stungun0404]

Did a cursory look over what I posted and wanted to add something to the BK one:
He used the supposed scumslip for reason to townread Votato

while still voting Votato

.

I got somewhere to be; I'll see you guys later!

[stungun0404]

OK. No discussion since earlier? How about a simpler version of my cases.

Ok, done.

I need 24 hours to work on my reads (I'll post tomorrow).

Lie. No follow through (which in this case is anti-town).

Taking a break

for an hour

. Starting to fall into scumthreaditious

Lie. No follow through. Took over a day only to state another reason, which might be genuine, but also notably allows him not to post any content to avoid a prod.

I'm sorry, but I'm not really motivated rn with this game (and I'm not white sure why).

I'll try to self-motivated myself tonight.

Might have

lied again, as he did not post at all after that during that night.

i have a little but i cant talk about it. by day 2 or 3 ill probably give some more details. as for the association you're drawing between me and dunn, stun, you're right that we aren't scumbuddies, but i dont think your reasons why are all that strong.

plus the only reason you know that is cuz you and i are scumbuddies

.

***

wrong thread

.

Lies. Tries to implicate me in case he flips, since he was the leading wagon.

[stungun0404]

They have all three lied. Lynch all liars. Lying about simple and clear intentions with no follow-through and lying to implicate me is what can be considered scummy here. Simple as that.

OTOH, Dunn has

not

made one single blatant lie in this game. You can ISO everything he has said to confirm that there is no blatant lie. That's the difference between town and scum I think in this particular game.

Not that the "lynch all liars" approach always works, but in this case I think it leads us to the correct solve.

[stungun0404]

I have not advocated for your lynch/actively pushed evidence for others to vote you since I switched to voting BM, whereas in your case you were actively stuck on voting BM while pushing evidence to support a Dunnstral lynch, which is highly inconsistent and only can encourage what was already the biggest wagon that has formed this day phase. Thus, those are two entirely different scenarios. How, then, are they the exact same thing?

You suspect both BM and GC, and switched from voting GC to BM. You obviously still suspect GC. Mala finds that suspicious.

I suspect both Dunn and BM, and switched from voting Dunn to BM. I obviously still suspect Dunn. stun finds that suspicious.

ToWn CaN sUsPeCt MuLtIpLe PeOpLe At ThE sAmE tImE.

Yeah, I guess the only reason I suspected you in this case was because Dunnstral was the leading wagon, whereas in my case neither BM nor GC have been leading wagons this day phase.

But your point is fair enough.

So why would you only suspect green due to dun being the leading wagon? I don't see why green actions regarding the dun wagon would really impact your desire to vote either way between them. As it's something that never really changed between your vote on green and your vote on BM.

So why in effect would you side with BM against green by voting green. If it was simply a matter of green finding a dun lynch acceptable. As for him to be scum at most half the dun wagon must at least be town. What made you think that green at the time was scum happy with both Bm and duns mislynch. Rather than green potential believing that both were good lynch candidates. As with something so little I would have expected you based on your claimed belief that there is one scum in green/BM. To first vote BM first but pressure green over his reasons.

Honestly, the only reason I suspected GC because of being scum due to his pushing of dun who was the leading wagon while voting BM was because I was very zeroed in on seeing GC scum at that point in time, although I am pretty sure now I was wrong. Since I have been thinking one of GC/BM is town and the other is scum, thinking that GC was scum at the time, I thought he was voting for a convenient BM lynch, while also pushing forward what I have been thinking is likely a town Dunnstral wagon all along. Thus, if I thought both of those were likely town at one point, it would make sense why I included those reasons in my case for suspecting Green.

Obviously, my view on BM has flipped, however and I very much am confident thinking Clidd/BM is the true scum in the two right now. I think I initially tunneled too hard on GC simply because of him seeming so similar to Mathblade!scum that it pinged me so hard in many ways.

[stungun0404]

@HK: I like that you responded. The one alternative scenario right now where I can see you are town would mean to me a scum team of BM/Clidd-Votato-and Geraintm. Like, I really feel good enough about everyone else to assert that I feel fairly confident that all 4 scum are in those 4 folks, with BM and Votato being a super obvious pair. I can't see those two not being partners. Too much of a clear link to be coincidental.

It would be only after those 4 are lynched that I would want to see a potential Dunnstral/nm lynch.

I really want your response to this though:

@HK50, how do you feel about the alignments of Clidd and Votato? And why?

I will respond to the rest of your case either tomorrow or the following day.

[stungun0404]

Scum is fine with the status quo and is not eager to move away and slash or are fine to bus a partner (dunn/clidd) potentially. Which I buy more for occ. Razor.

Will address everything else later, but this particular take can be seen, not necessarily in bussing fashion, but in early voteparking fashion from the two I suspect to be partners: BM/Clidd and Votato. Because it is easier to put this in bold, I have chosen to quote farside's unofficial vote count and not one the mod made here.

unofficial vote count:

votato

(3): Malakittens, bob3141,

Battle Mage

Dunnstral (5): DoctorPepper, farside22, HK 50, notscience, stungun0404

Battle Mage

(3): Not_Mafia,

votato

, Green Crayons
notscience (1): geraintm
Malakittens (1): Dunnstral
Not voting (0):

[stungun0404]

This vote situation appears tricky...

It's 4 vs. 4, and 3 more votes are needed to secure either lynch. The 2 sides seem pretty set overall. Off of the wagons, we have 2 of my scumspects I don't think will move (Clidd and Votato), and then Geraintm and Dunn who are on useless wagons right now.

This means that, ultimately, I feel either of our wagons can only trust bob right now to break the tie. But still, the leading wagon will need two more votes from there to lynch.

Thus, I feel like we're going to have to strike a deal between the two sides, then, or we might have trouble lynching. So, I tell you what:

@Farside, @Dr. Pepper, @NS

, since I trust you are all three town, would you guys be willing to potentially move over and lynch Clidd this day phase provided that I promise you that we lynch either Dunn or Votato next day phase?

@HK

, even though I am not set on you being town, I will extend this offer to you as well.

Now, the reason I include Votato there with Dunn is the obvious association that Votato has with BM that we will have to take into account when lynching tomorrow, provided a Clidd scumflip. If Clidd flukily flips town, we lynch Dunn, guaranteed tomorrow.

We do not currently have a clear second lead with a lynch of Dunnstral, but we do with a lynch of Clidd. Both myself and NM (and I feel like maybe someone else but I don't remember who?) have found the interactions between BM and Votato to be like that of scumpartners. Thus, we could have the best future results in this game if we are correct on a BM scum lynch today. Wouldn't it be best to knock that out now and not have both Votato and BM alive tomorrow to still deal with as a potential pair? I mean, we could potentially start this game off with back-to-back scum lynches!

And I promise you, I will willingly sacrifice Dunnstral tomorrow if it comes down to that. I very adamantly do not want him to go today though because I suspect he is town, and I do not want a town mislynch on D1.

[stungun0404]

If Clidd flukily flips town, we lynch Dunn, guaranteed tomorrow.

nope

that townflip is not going to happen, I am that convinced, which is why I am willing to offer that.

[stungun0404]

Scum is fine with the status quo and is not eager to move away and slash or are fine to bus a partner (dunn/clidd) potentially. Which I buy more for occ. Razor.

Will address everything else later, but this particular take can be seen, not necessarily in bussing fashion, but in early voteparking fashion from the two I suspect to be partners: BM/Clidd and Votato. Because it is easier to put this in bold, I have chosen to quote farside's unofficial vote count and not one the mod made here.

unofficial vote count:

votato

(3): Malakittens, bob3141,

Battle Mage

Dunnstral (5): DoctorPepper, farside22, HK 50, notscience, stungun0404

Battle Mage

(3): Not_Mafia,

votato

, Green Crayons
notscience (1): geraintm
Malakittens (1): Dunnstral
Not voting (0):

Ask yourself this though about that vote count. Let's operate in the framework that votato and BM are scum together and Dunnstral is town. Plus note I just woke up, and did not review the context of that vote count in it's entirely although I do remember some of it.

You got a clear wagon in the form of Dunnstral for mafia to push. There's five people already on it, and the person being pushed isn't doing much on his own to get out of the lynch. Now then,

why would votato and BM enable themselves to be a counterwagon to Dunnstral by voting eachother?

Their votes pushes them into prime bandwagon spotlight without actually helping secure the easy mislynch supposedly in front of them.

That's the point with status quo I'm referring to for example. If Dunnstral is town, mafia status quo was already achieved there and they wouldnt open up that many more wagons, let alone on themselves. However, if Dunnstral is mafia, then scum

needs to redirect the wagons or bus him

. This is basic wagon dynamics.

(Note that I'm not saying Dunnstral has to be scum here based off that one VC, but rather if we applying what I meant to that particular VC then that would be the answer.)

BM had no choice but to join the Votato wagon in case he was lynched. Votato became a majority wagon at one point this day phase, so it makes complete sense that he joined under that light.

Votato just voteparked on BM from RVS until 25 posts later in his ISO.

Therefore, both of these make sense as scum votes on a fellow scummate.

[stungun0404]

If anyone can link the post link to the main BM case that would be swell because I'm sure as hell too lazy to dig for it.

I can be convinced of scum BM despite disagreeing with the votato pairing. I want Dunnstral though preferably because it gives more information. Just off the top of my head:

If scum:

-Depending on the formation of the BM wagon, this could point to town BM if it was heavily pushed for without much countermeasure (aka mafia allowed it to happen).

-Stunguns stance on Dunnstral throughout day 1
-Farside, GC, and bob are pretty surely town

-votato is town due to the opening post by Dunnstral

-malakitten is prob town too although I need to revisit that.

If town:

-Farside/bob scum equity goes up (this is my bargaining chip. You want to see my little secret? Gotta keep my robot ass alive and flip Dunnstral).

-im wrong about stungun most likely and they are town

-BM/Clidd equity for scum goes up.

-Im sure there are points that help sort conscience, malakitten, and GC.

I confess it doesnt help solve the militank nor Germy germ, but I also confess I stop paying attention to such weaklings

There has been less resistance to a Dunnstral wagon than a BM wagon, which still has never reached a majority this day phase, unlike Dunn which has been the primary majority.

Obviously, since the majority has been 4 votes lately, scum isn't really helping us too much with these votes, or I'm sure we would be closer to a lynch.

What on earth makes Votato town based on a post by Dunnstral? What kind of crazy logic? He should be town based off his own posts from your angle, but not someone else's. That is really weird.

Look, you're also willing to flip on my townreads provided that Dunn flips town. I do not like that, as I am townreading both Bob and farside. I see you and think you are lining up lynches here, since you think they are both town currently.

You want an extra day with BM/Clidd & Votato, don't you?

Just my gut read right now.

@Farside

: I have to say no to moving to Dunnstral, unless he's a majority and we are threatened with a no lynch situation or Dunnstral.

I hope you will do the same thing provided it's Clidd or no lynch, because a lynch obviously favors us more than a no lynch.

[stungun0404]

clidd has requested an additional day to be added onto the clock. The new end of day is in (expired on 2020-06-24 07:23:04).

Is it not scummy to add an extra day to the clock only to use more than double that amount of time up without even saying so much as a word like "I am having trouble catching up" or something? I can understand busyness, but at the same time it only takes about 15-30 seconds to come in and say something like that, and it also helps us.

Do you think for a second that might be scum that has no defense for what I called them out about on Friday?

Votato has also not answered. It has been >36 hours since I asked those questions, and HK only responded after I asked him a second time. Do you think there is a reason these players are dodging those questions?

[stungun0404]

Should Dunnstral and Clidd's slot role claim? Why or why not?

Also a look at his profile says clidd has t been on site since his post so I’m not really sure it’s scummy.

Yeah, he hasn't posted, but he has his last visited hidden so we can't tell that for sure. Votato, OTOH, clearly has been on since I called him out on Friday (multiple times in fact as you can see on his profile). What do you make of that?

clidd has requested an additional day to be added onto the clock. The new end of day is in (expired on 2020-06-24 07:23:04).

Is it not scummy to add an extra day to the clock only to use more than double that amount of time up without even saying so much as a word like "I am having trouble catching up" or something? I can understand busyness, but at the same time it only takes about 15-30 seconds to come in and say something like that, and it also helps us.

Do you think for a second that might be scum that has no defense for what I called them out about on Friday?

Votato has also not answered. It has been >36 hours since I asked those questions, and HK only responded after I asked him a second time. Do you think there is a reason these players are dodging those questions?

Can you prove that he hasn't contracted covid 19 due to being in a hotspot (spain) and hasn't responded to the mod prod because of it? Or that he didnt get into a car wreck? Or did he just site flake because I was too seductive?

No I can't. I am not trying to be rude by any means, but I am just favoring what I find to be more likely. I think the two scenarios you mentioned personally are relatively unlikely from a chance perspective, but not impossible. It is just that I find the timing here odd, and I think my case is more probable because of the fact that Votato has also entered prod range with Clidd, following me calling them out.

Timing is everything. Timing can tell you what is more likely sometimes, and in this scenario I am inclined to believe there is reason to a case where both Clidd and Votato conveniently lurked out here (especially given the Votato evidence) because of the question I pressured them to answer here,

*Note to respond to Bob later, when I have more time.

In the meantime, something interesting has captured my attention...

@Clidd, once you catch up, how do you feel about the alignments of HK50 and Votato? And why?
@HK50, how do you feel about the alignments of Clidd and Votato? And why?
@Votato, how do you feel about the alignments of Clidd and HK50? And why?

Also, this works in conjunction with the fact we're getting closer to deadline (which not posting when you have the opportunity to is unhelpful to town) and neither is in V/LA mode.

p edit: of course Votato posts as I am typing this post up. How could he have just forgotten about this game though, lol?

[stungun0404]

@farside: oddly enough, earlier when I was doing a meta on GC, that is exactly what stood out to me. The fact that he was not asking many questions, but I wanted to keep that information to my self in case it is a scumtell for him.

That is really what originally led me to want to really look at him. Because if he asks a lot of questions in more than one game of his meta as town, then when you see the opposite, is he scum?

[stungun0404]

@NS, I did not know about the drone thing. I really did not carefully read the conversations that were not particularly game relevant in this thread. I hope you can see how I might interpret that as scummy if I did not know/get the reference.

[stungun0404]

Farside quote: "Please don't make a molehill into a mountain. Chill and let the player catch up. People get busy and frankly I find your attitude a bit rude in this department."
Response: yeah, that's on me. sorry i got impatient there. i think i went a little too far trying to justify someone i had a scum ping on.

Ghost Ganster stungun0404 - town Like, annoyingly super town and I say annoyingly because he can get a thought in his head and it might be wrong by gd he runs it down.

yeah, i have very much of a tunnel tendency when I think I have caught scum. like sometimes I literally will block out everything but who I suspect, which I can try to work on, especially if it's only from D1 evidence/before flips.

[stungun0404]

Votato I want to Lynch scum who should we Lynch

As for this, I think regardless of who he might say, we should wait to lynch until we can get a claim. Even if that means someone has to replace Clidd and instantly come into the thread and claim. That helps us more than simply lynching the slot, because we'll have more information to make an informed decision off of.

[stungun0404]

my reads, based off a combination of feel and reasoning.

titanium-strong town reads: bob, dr. pepper
solid town reads, but not beyond doubt: farside, notscience, malakittens
likely town: nm
nulltown: Dunnstral (this is notably my weakest town indication though)

minus associations and all the other stuff i have been pondering, here is how i would rate the others based strictly off the assumption that anyone could be partnered with anyone:

null: votato, gc

scumleans: geraintm, hk50

strongest scumread: clidd/bm

[stungun0404]

I don't intend to hammer Clidd, if the wagon is going to shift to me I'll defend myself.

I like this post from Dunnstral right here. It will look good especially if there is a scumflip of clidd. if Clidd's town, then it holds less weight, because technically that could mean a scum Dunnstral is not wanting to lynch town here.

I observed that he took up on an opportunity in his meta as scum after replacing into a game to hammer a townplayer immediately after someone asked him to do so. He didn't even debate it, he just did it.

Now granted, that person had a power role which we might to note that scum may have known, but given that he hasn't followed anyone asking about a hammer so far, this does look good to me if Clidd flips scum. NM has asked him, which he could have taken up on that opportunity, but has not and is currently resisting the opposing wagon to himself.

[stungun0404]

Has HK said who they suspect other than stun?

Just Dunnstral. And ISO'ing him I have not gotten a real sense why he suspects Dunnstral scum. It feels like he is just following everyone else.

Can somebody else look into HK's ISO and just tell me if it looks like he is scumhunting? Because that is what concerns me about his entire ISO, even if you just look at it from a surface perspective.

[stungun0404]

my reads, based off a combination of feel and reasoning.

titanium-strong town reads: bob, dr. pepper
solid town reads, but not beyond doubt: farside, notscience, malakittens
likely town: nm
nulltown: Dunnstral (this is notably my weakest town indication though)

minus associations and all the other stuff i have been pondering, here is how i would rate the others based strictly off the assumption that anyone could be partnered with anyone:

null: votato, gc

scumleans: geraintm, hk50

strongest scumread: clidd/bm

this is a really bad list and i want to lynch you for it.

por que?

what is bad about it?

[stungun0404]

some strange townreads, and some townreads in the wrong order. like why is dr p so high up as an inactive? do you really not have enough info to have reads on myself or GC at this point?

yes, i too want to hear more from Dr. P, but his content has a very distinct town feel to it for me thus far. I have also observed some things he has done that would make things more difficult on himself if he were in fact scum, and I don't think scum ever wants to make their jobs harder than it needs to be.

As I have been suspecting this day phase, I think one of GC/BM or Clidd is scum based on their pushes of each other. GC has done some things I have found scummy, but not as scummy as BM. There are limited town pings for me on him, thus I have him in the middle right now.

As for you, I have observed on your Wiki page that you are 4-0 and scum, so I am being very cautious in resorting to any sort of townread for you, and I really can't say that anything you individually have done is too overly scummy, so that is why I am null on you.

What are your reads?

[stungun0404]

I can make sure to meta Dr. P later when I get the chance just to make sure that he does not do the things I have spotted as scum, but from a strict feeling perspective I feel good about Dr. P.

[stungun0404]

I'm not scumreading Green crayons from his interaction with me just now, and I wasn't before that either. That vote is a pass from me.

I'll vote somebody else because you are being more flexible.

VOTE: HK 50

I would 100% be down to lynch there if others are.

Still wanting someone to analyze his ISO and see if it looks like he is scumhunting. Because he isn't to me, and that's suggestive that he is scum.

[stungun0404]

And for the record, if both of the only 2 players HK has made a serious push on this game (Dunn and I) think he's scum, then maybe it would be good for others to look more closely at his pushes too.

[stungun0404]

Clidd is in replacement zone, so hopefully we get a replacement soon. Why don't we give a replacement extra time and lynch here? I'll put my money where my mouth is.

VOTE: HK50

[stungun0404]

I’m convinced we’re mislynching today I’ll be back after night and mala and I will set this town straight

ns, when you get the chance, can you specifically please take a second and reconsider your hk townread? aside from him making you laugh, and some other points i remember you making.

what in his iso indicates to you that he is scumhunting? i want you to try and solve that riddle.

[stungun0404]

You know apathetic town is a thing right

yes,

but apathetic town does not make a really thorough case between me and votato without taking many stances imo, and only considering if I am scum, nothing else.

[stungun0404]

if someone conducts a lot of analysis, like hk has thus far, and does not have the appearance they are scumhunting, then they are likely scum. and i'll leave it at that.

[stungun0404]

You know apathetic town is a thing right

yes,

but apathetic town does not make a really thorough case between me and votato without taking many stances imo, and only considering if I am scum, nothing else.

Where is this in his iso I’m not seeing this

607

[stungun0404]

@farside, what do you think about HK and whether he is scumhunting or not? From your angle, technically the scum team could be GC-NS-HK, I would think, if you look into HK

[stungun0404]

That was a case on you saying you were pushing him to give the appearance you were trying to read him when you weren’t really and it’s actually a solid point? You say he doesn’t take stances but it’s pretty implicit that he thinks you are scum and votato is town in that instance

He doesn't take anything further than implications though

[stungun0404]

and that's really the case for pretty much his entire ISO, which I don't like

[stungun0404]

You guys can try to Lynch me if you want

Be about as useful as the current wagons anyways

I feel very strongly that you are wrong here, lol.

There is definitely scum being wagoned right now between HK and Clidd imo.

[stungun0404]

Ok, I want you to try one more angle that might shift your perspective, and then I will be done trying to convince you about HK.

Imagine for a second you are Dunnstral (who you think is town). How then would you feel if you were Dunnstral with the way HK is pushing him?

Just search for all mentions of Dunn in his ISO to keep this simple.

[stungun0404]

votato, why not HK? his push on dunnstral is the weakest push in this game.

like, people are dismissing him way too much. i think he's scum for his push, and not for apathy.

[stungun0404]

votato, why not HK? his push on dunnstral is the weakest push in this game.

like, people are dismissing him way too much. i think he's scum for his push, and not for apathy.

remind me later to look over HK's iso. i could probably be persuaded to vote there.

hey arent i one of your top scumreads? why are you trying to cooperate with me now

meta'd you again and saw some town indications, so i'm not as bent on wanting to lynch you now.

[stungun0404]

@DP, what do you think of HK's push on Dunnstral?

If you look at one thing, I want you to look at that, and tell me if it seems like he is genuinely scumhunting with his conviction against Dunnstral, and his votepark there.

[stungun0404]

votato, why not HK? his push on dunnstral is the weakest push in this game.

like, people are dismissing him way too much. i think he's scum for his push, and not for apathy.

remind me later to look over HK's iso. i could probably be persuaded to vote there.

hey arent i one of your top scumreads? why are you trying to cooperate with me now

meta'd you again and saw some town indications, so i'm not as bent on wanting to lynch you now.

what did you find? why didnt you share these results? you keep changing your reads and appealing to "meta" but you havent actually done anything to show us what you're finding, so it seems a really convenient excuse for being wishy washy.

I want to see if you maintain the sign I am seeing first, because that could be helpful in the long-run in verifying your alignment. It's one of those things that I find more benefit to keeping to myself right now for the sake of town rather than telling everyone and alerting you to it. I am willing to reveal another day phase, but not this one.

Besides, I have already established that there are some things that I selectively choose to keep to myself, for the benefit of town and reading players, as established for example in my statement about GC in 785. Players may get the impression that I am that type of player, but I do keep a fair bit of evidence to myself, especially if I think it can be groundbreaking in determining someone's alignment in either this game or perhaps in a future game I play with them.

[stungun0404]

*that I am the type of player that just says everything he thinks, but I do keep a fair bit of evidence to myself...

[stungun0404]

Has HK said who they suspect other than stun?

@GC, I notice that you asked this question right after farside and I called you out for not asking enough questions, conveniently.

But you never followed up on it after I gave an answer, even so much as mentioning HK afterwards.

How come? Are you genuinely concerned about HK? Or was this just an empty question for the sake of asking a question after we called you out?

To me, this seems like the type of question you would want to follow up on once an answer was obtained.0

[stungun0404]

unofficial vote count

clidd (5): Not_Mafia, Green Crayons, Malakittens, bob3141, votato
Dunnstral (2): DoctorPepper, HK 50
HK50 (2): Dunnstral, stungun0404
Green Crayons (2) clidd, farside22
notscience (1): geraintm
Not voting (1): notscience

@NS: I cannot see how you can possibly think all of the current wagons are town. Like, it really is highly unlikely, which is making me feel weird about you. Because that seems like it is going from more of a possibility angle than a probability angle. Rather, it is probable that at least one of the 5 current wagons is scum.

Who is your supposed scum team right now, then? Especially since according to your 292, which granted was awhile ago, but you townread me, hk, mala, farside, and bob, while scumreading votato the most (who you are suddenly now trusting to guide your vote). Why such a big flip with votato from biggest scumread to player you trust the most? Not gonna lie, that is striking me as strange.

In 678, you had the same townreads of Mala, me, HK and Farside, but you took out Bob and replaced him with GC.

You also nulltowned BM

Notably, nowhere is Votato found there. And yet you are relying on him to help you figure out the game according to your 898?

I don't get the flips with you. You were townreading farside. Now you want to lynch farside according to your 904, which asks "lynch farside with me?" but notably you are also not voting farside.

Which begs the question for me, are you genuinely scumhunting, similarly to HK? I'm thinking I am going to have to move you down in my reads, because all this is just odd from my perspective.

Also, you have a double voter power and you are not even voting one person? Why not?

[stungun0404]

Dunn looks town and i don’t feel comfortable with lynching clidd.

Right here is where you say Dunn looks town.

So, from your perspective, you have thought GC, yourself, Stun, mala, Bob, farside, and HK to be town (with no qualifications). You think Dunn looks town too per your 870. That is 8 players you have clearly thought are town. You think Clidd is town, thus why you don't want a lynch there. That's 9.

You also have trusted Votato even though lately has been a null read/flip flop read for you per your 678? That would presumably be 10.

you have kept DP null, nm has remained null. No scumreads there. That's 12 players -- still no scumread.

geraintm an early scum lean in 292 but you have said nothing about them in the nearly 100 posts after that in your ISO for some reason or another? That's everyone.

If you are town, you have to be scumleaning/scumreading someone right now. I'm having a hard time believing that you are not.

But, alas. Is this typical NS town meta for those who are familiar with him?

[stungun0404]

I agree 100% that one of GC/BM is scum. Like there is no possible way that could ever be town vs. town there. No qualifications at all. I am glad we have both come to that conclusion, farside!

[stungun0404]

@GC, I notice that you asked this question right after farside and I called you out for not asking enough questions, conveniently.

also seriously you are fucking exhausting

This was rude and uncalled for. Once you find something potentially weird and suspicious, it is helpful to town to ask a question about it because that's usually the only way you get an answer about it, or what you are looking for.

That helps sort players. I am still trying to sort you.

No need to take that out on me.

[stungun0404]

I think it was perfectly called for. You didn't ask a question. You made a statement to lob another suspicion based on your really, spectacularly bad meta analysis that farside has glomped onto like a leach. It's exhausting.

It is not bad, because early on I noticed a drastic difference in the number of questions you asked in a few of your town games vs. the number you had asked in here through a certain number of posts, which was suggestive that maybe you were not curious enough because you are scum.

I wanted to keep that to myself though to see if you kept doing that. Still, you've had 153 posts, and you have only asked 9 questions that I would consider to possibly be sorting questions now this game, which is not a lot. Given your town meta, this might suggest you have more answers than questions because you are scum, which is what I was trying to figure out since it differs with established townplay of yours.

A difference that is large with something like that is worth keeping in mind. You should be able to fully understand why that can appear scummy.

[stungun0404]

It is not bad, because early on I noticed a drastic difference in the number of questions you asked in a few of your town games vs. the number you had asked in here through a certain number of posts, which was suggestive that maybe you were not curious enough because you are scum.

Y’all rely way too much on so called meta.

Well, you can say that, but I do want to at least point out what I mean that may end up being AI here.

Your first 153 posts here, I found 9 possible sorting questions.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... %5B%5D=150
In your most recent towngame there, I found 26 possible sorting questions.

When there's a gap like that, meta might help you solve someone. Not that it's conclusive by any means, but it is something to keep in mind.

[stungun0404]

*26 in your first 153 posts

[stungun0404]

well its only day 1. could you do me a favor and do the same thing with me stungun?

sure, 12 possible sorting questions in 86 posts this game.

that's 3 more than GC and he has nearly double the amount of posts as you (over 150).

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p11911353
in this game as scum, you had 4 in your entire 60 game posts.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... B%5D=34221
but in this scum game, you had 21 possible sorting questions in your first 86 posts.

that is highly inconsistent, so I really can't clear you off this aspect. it shows you play differently between scum games. :-/

[stungun0404]

Nice, someone I've played with before! Hey Porkens -- I remember we were on a scumteam together a few years back. Welcome to the game!

[stungun0404]

@HK, I think you are likely scum not only because:
-Your push Dunnstral was super weak and had no substance to it outside of "agreeing" with what others had said.
-I remember a few times where you favored arguments that came more from a "possibility" perspective than a probability perspective. Scum is more likely than town to push from those angles, and if I see it more than once that is definitely scummy.
-I have not been convinced that you are indeed scumhunting.

Thus, I find it probable you are scum.

[stungun0404]

We have one day left in this day phase and about 5 hours, which means

@Porkens: it is really important that you claim in your next post so that if your role is important to us that are town, we can keep you and have more time to make a well-informed decision to move elsewhere.

[stungun0404]

Thank you Porkens for claiming!

A question to everyone then: if today's lynch is not Porkens, who else would you be willing to lynch this day phase?

Maybe then we can get a full perspective on who the best alternatives could be to a Porkens lynch. Because otherwise I don't see a lot of unity occurring among us if we start getting town indications from Porkens (which he still should try to give us, but in the meantime this is what we can ideally obtain).

For me, I would prefer HK if not Porkens, but also am open to lynching gera, or GC (GC I only say this because I am confident one of you or Porkens is scum, and therefore I am open to lynching either of you if it comes to that, but you are at the bottom of my list of 4 players right now as it stands).

Also, anybody feel free to raise objections to this if you think giving out this information might hurt town more than help us.

[stungun0404]

Bob, I like these conclusions you are coming to.

HK is scum I feel pretty confident about based merely off the angles from which he is pushing things, like it's very clearly skewed to me in a way that suggests scum.

I did not even recognize that HK was distracting away from the BM/Clidd/Porkens wagon subtly.

[stungun0404]

I hate that porkens claimed VT. I think scum would have claimed a PR here.

Why? How do you know they wouldn't get called out for calling a power role someone else in this game has?

I was gonna say I like this post, but then I thought about it more and realized that if BM/Clidd/Porkens is indeed town here, then under that circumstance that makes the argument stronger that you are scum because obviously scum would prefer to keep a vanilla townie in the game over a power role, if they can get one lynched/claimed. I do like this post, however, under the circumstance that Porkens is scum, but if he's town I hope others look at what GC might be doing here.

[stungun0404]

I think you are overthinking if you are town here. Porkens and his supposed scumteam might not have even thought about that. They might have just gone with what was conveniently there so they would not be refuted/denied and lose a scum mate on D1. They want to protect him, because there is only supposedly 3 scum/13 players in this game.

Losing a member on D1 is a huge risk, any way you slice it, and so claiming something that could be refuted would possibly be seen as a bad move to them. And especially if he were to claim what another scum member on his team has (if they have a power role safeclaim on his team). Because, ultimately that gives that scummate no protection later on from his claim, and instantly associates the two (unless his scum mate went rogue and they counterclaimed for their own protection, but who knows how far they could get with that ploy before town finally figures out)?

Like, not everyone is going to think when they claim if they are scum "let's a power role if we are gonna lose a member today." In fact, I'd bet the majority of teams wouldn't think of that, so I don't understand why you are giving so much attention to this whole argument based off of his claim.

[stungun0404]

That is, they wouldn't want to clearly implicate Porkens as scum, so that they could potentially save him.

[stungun0404]

And also, I don't think Porkens is at L-1, he was at L-2, so now with your unvote he is at L-3.

[stungun0404]

Doesn't matter if they have daytalk -- it is unlikely that they pull a "let's out a power role stunt" IMO. How many times have you seen that happen on D1? And where?

I have never, as far as I'm aware.

[stungun0404]

I have seen fake claims, but not on D1 in a game like this. I think it's too risky of a move for scum to make, which is why the angle you are coming from here is conflicting me right now.

[stungun0404]

Like, suppose there are 13 players in this game. 1 is down on D1. A cop or tracker outs another on N1. They are lynched D2.

They now have 1 scum left. Why, then, take such a big risk and fake claim?

This angle you are coming from seems to be promoting possibility over probability, which I do not like, and seems scummy.

[stungun0404]

*1 scum is down on D1.

[stungun0404]

*13 players and 3 scum

[stungun0404]

I said I have never on D1. You are twisting my words.

[stungun0404]

And again, L-2 replace-in, not L-1 replace-in. Check the vote count.

I have done and seen others do this very thing you are doing as scum, which is what concerns me. Moving off of a vanilla lynch to perhaps see if you can get another person to pass Porkens in the vote count and get another claim, and perhaps a powerrole claim comes out there. Makes total sense for scum to do.

[stungun0404]

We have one day left in this day phase and about 5 hours, which means

@Porkens: it is really important that you claim in your next post so that if your role is important to us that are town, we can keep you and have more time to make a well-informed decision to move elsewhere.

I hate cdemands for claims like this. it never seems to help. if it is scum, they can flush out someone else or else send town onto a wild lynch chase that won't go anywhere good. if it is town...how is getting them to claim and out themselves going to help?

Respectfully disagree.

You have to know if you have a townplayer that has a power role that you need to keep around. You do not want to lynch a cop on D1, for example. Say there's a doc in the game, cop claims, well that Doc can protect them during the night phase.

OTOH, if you lynch the cop on D1, you put town in a very bad position right at the start of the game.

Thus, a role claim is better when someone is backed up against a wall.

[stungun0404]

It's very clear if Porkens did not roleclaim he was going to be lynched. Like, literally no doubt given the amount of time left in the day and the lack of unity elsewhere (no more than 2 votes).

[stungun0404]

I have done and seen others do this very thing you are doing as scum, which is what concerns me. Moving off of a vanilla lynch to perhaps see if you can get another person to pass Porkens in the vote count and get another claim, and perhaps a powerrole claim comes out there. Makes total sense for scum to do.

please

1) differentiate between NAI conduct that can conform to scum alignment, and AI conduct.

2) maybe actually have the person you're accusing of the bad thing to do the bad thing

first

, before lobbing the accusation--so far I have unvoted porkens to allow him time to spit out opinions while I reread, but said I wasn't against his lynch because, frankly, I'm not sure I'm comfortable with a rushjob on anyone else atm

3) don't rely on "i have seens" because plenty of people have seen plenty of things, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything for the game at hand. i point you back to #1.

1) The way I am reading this, it is very difficult to describe. Can you reword that question just so I am sure that what you are looking for is what I am seeing? Because I don't want to explain the wrong thing here.

2) Yeah, I could have waited longer before calling it out. I probably should have, but I guess I was just eager to point out that you could be scum based off that.

3) Gotcha.

[stungun0404]

Oh wait, I think I get what you are asking.

It is the potential motivations behind a player's actions that differentiate between AI and NAI conduct. Though AI by itself is kinda complex, like are we talking weak tendencies of a certain alignment and strong tendencies of a certain alignment? They both could be considered AI in their own individual way.

[stungun0404]

What is so special about a "game like this" that makes a fake PR claim completely unfathomable? Because they might reveal a PR and get lynched (like he's likely to do anyway)?

There are a limited number of fakeclaims that scum could plausibly go for, given this is a normal game setup. Thus, the whole fakeclaiming business is more difficult than it would be in non-normal setups. At least, that's what I believe to be the case.

[stungun0404]

I think you are overthinking if you are town here. Porkens and his supposed scumteam might not have even thought about that. They might have just gone with what was conveniently there so they would not be refuted/denied and lose a scum mate on D1. They want to protect him, because there is only supposedly 3 scum/13 players in this game.

Losing a member on D1 is a huge risk, any way you slice it, and so claiming something that could be refuted would possibly be seen as a bad move to them

This reads like you know scum have daytalk.

I don't know if I believe in scum slips but jeeze.

I don't like this right here at all. What angle do you have to be coming from to assume that "I know scum has daytalk" from this post? Like, how are you interpreting that from this? It's definitely a

stretch

to get that conclusion from this post.

[stungun0404]

Obviously, I am referring to a scumteam as a "they" because a scumteam has more than one member. Most games also have daytalk, therefore it can be assumed this game likely does to.

All this you are pushing is swaying me to want to vote you even more. But I want to see what others have to say about this before I do, just to see if I may be interpreting all this wrong.

[stungun0404]

They is ambiguous, it can mean they all are talking, or it can mean just Porkens came up with the decision. But when you are referring to a scumteam, like I was right there, you refer to it as they. The prior sentence even says "Porkens and his scumteam..."

[stungun0404]

Dunn, what do you think of GC from the most recent interactions I had with him?

[stungun0404]

We have one day left in this day phase and about 5 hours, which means

@Porkens: it is really important that you claim in your next post so that if your role is important to us that are town, we can keep you and have more time to make a well-informed decision to move elsewhere.

I hate cdemands for claims like this. it never seems to help. if it is scum, they can flush out someone else or else send town onto a wild lynch chase that won't go anywhere good. if it is town...how is getting them to claim and out themselves going to help?

What does it make you think re his alignment

Who do you think is scum?

[stungun0404]

I mean, geraintm has disagreed with practically everything I have said lol, not just that fwiw.

But really has not said I'm scum, so I'm not exactly complaining. But I do wonder what his thoughts are on who is town and who is scum?

[stungun0404]

im still two pages back, but why do we think that a VT claim suddenly clears porkens?

Exactly. Did not like that stance from GC--thought it was scummy.

[stungun0404]

VOTE: GC

I want to make this a 2-person fight here between 2 scummy slots, and I really do not like the angles he has been pushing over the past couple pages. I know one of these wagons between Porkens/GC has to flip scum -- because I can't possibly comprehend this game without being the case the way the two slots pushed each other early in scummy ways. T vs. T just does not make sense to me.

I am open to either wagon being lynched because both slots have been scummy, but really want to hear more from Porkens in the mean time.

[stungun0404]

Stunguns early felt town and his interactions with gc felt town

but him being scum pushing the mislynches is the only way to rationalize not liking all the main wagons

What even is this saying? This does not seem factual, if it is saying what I think it is.

[stungun0404]

Thanks for giving reads NS!

But one thing still does stand out.

You think the scum team right now is me and no one else? Even though you thought I was town early on.

Like it's just not making sense. But then again, quite a few players in this game aren't making sense right now, especially if town.

[stungun0404]

You know you can vote me twice if you are convicted I am the only scum, right?

[stungun0404]

Feel free to if you want, I actually wouldn't mind having a little pressure on me for the first time since I replaced in.

And I really can't tell if you are waffly town, or scum that is just neglecting to act like you are huntjng at all, but I have been thinking the former is more likely. I just think you are misguided, that's all.

[stungun0404]

So right now then,

Porkens has 4 votes
GC has 3
no one else has more than 2, so these appear to be our 2 main options for today.

[stungun0404]

So right now then,

Porkens has 4 votes
GC has 3
no one else has more than 2, so these appear to be our 2 main options for today.

didnt you just put GC on 3?

yes, because i'd like the lynch to be in those 2.

I think Dunnstral is the only other one with 2, and of course I don't want him lynched.

Now one thing that is making me freeze on my vote of GC is that when I replace into town roles, I like to give weight to my predecessor's reads if I can because I have confirmed that they have come from a town perspective.

But, my predecessor, Ghost Ganster, said they liked Green Crayons, which was basically the only player they liked prior to replacing out.

So, I don't know, I am a little conflicted by that.

[stungun0404]

That’s such a weird thing to say I don’t think it even makes sense if you’re scum

What the fuck is going on this game

manipulation from hk and co tbh.

If I could have any lynch today, at this point I would want HK. But not enough people are on board there, it seems.

There is scum between GC and Porkens, but I am honestly not sure which.

OTOH, HK comes across as clear scum to me, and there is no other person to put there in a pool of options with him. So, the highest chances of flipping scum FMPOV is flipping HK.

Tell me, how can I get you to consider that HK is actually scum? Like I know you love his posting style, but he's scum.

[stungun0404]

yeah im also a bit unsure about the dunn wagon... maybe all three scum got on there?

there's a lead... hk is scum. he was on the dunnstral wagon pushing it as the 4th vote for literally no reason, and voteparked there a very long time (in fact I think he might still be there). But the only reason he ever said Dunnstral was scummy was "I agree with what others have to say." Nothing original, and yet he was that convicted? That is scummy.

[stungun0404]

yeah im also a bit unsure about the dunn wagon... maybe all three scum got on there?

there's a lead... hk is scum. he was on the dunnstral wagon pushing it as the 4th vote for literally no reason, and voteparked there a very long time (in fact I think he might still be there). But the only reason he ever said Dunnstral was scummy was "I agree with what others have to say." Nothing original, and yet he was that convicted? That is scummy.

I mean, he even prodged at one point saying "Dunnstral is still scummy". How was he, as town, that convicted that he comes out of a prodge with still no original reasoning of his own for voteparking on Dunn as it was a majority wagon?

[stungun0404]

(,

First is post 325, which introduces the lead in read progression on genermitn. I dont mind this in isolation or from part of votato's post 324 since votato was a bit more vocal about the slot.

I could see Town!stungun attempting to do a reaction test to see if votato hard commits to scum reading germ.

As a form of survival for example. However, stungun already knew that votato liked their case on germ from the same post (324) meaning such an test would already be flawed. For votato to commit to the scum read, all he would have to do is analyze what part of the case he agrees or disagrees with. Its 326 and 328 though that begins to draw the line between a bad test and stungun having different motives.

All in all, I dont believe the votato interaction by stungun was done for what was claimed.

I wouldnt be surprised if Dunnstral is scum and stungun picked to pressure other LHFesk players in a bid to protect Dunnstral.

So everyone can see, this is where my scum!ping of HK really started to take hold. First of all, he assumes that I used a reaction test and used that as the only reasoning he could possibly think of to support me being town there. That is a relatively unlikely reason for me to do something, and it is scummy to paint me into a corner and say that the only town perspective I can see out of stungun here is for that post to be a reaction test -- and then make an entire case of me being scummy because of what he wrongly assumed was a reaction test. Knowing I am town of course, which you cannot prove yet, this struck me as really scummy. I don't think town ever favors that really rather unlikely scenario for the only way he believes I could be town here.

He is believing a very unlikely scenario in it being done for a reaction test, and makes a whole damn case off of it. That is why I think HK is clearly scum. He is favoring extremely unlikely scenarios (again, possibility > probability), but he is taking it to the most extreme form with the reaction test argument.

[stungun0404]

Votato, I am going to sort through your meta to see if I confirm what you said about your activity levels.

In the meantime, would you be willing to vote geriantm?

It was in response to this post of mine.

If he is town, wouldn't he more likely think this could be where I want Vot's vote to go, or where I want to get pressure? And not assume the only case is that it was a reaction test?

[stungun0404]

Votato, I am going to sort through your meta to see if I confirm what you said about your activity levels.

In the meantime, would you be willing to vote geriantm?

It was in response to this post of mine.

If he is town, wouldn't he more likely think this could be where I want Vot's vote to go, or where I want to get pressure? And not assume the only case

where I am town here

is if that it was a reaction test?

EBWOP

[stungun0404]

And yet I had voted geraintm at an earlier point and clearly indicated that I was OK with him getting pressure? Did you happen to miss that?

I don't think as town you doubt the genuineness of that interaction. Like it really gave me a scummy feel about you that I have been unable to shake.

[stungun0404]

VOTE: Geraintm

Absolutely nothing in their ISO thus far points to scumhunting, and I do not like that. Especially paired together with their commitment to stalling that they admitted to in 108 by saying "you all do you, i'm going to wait until things become more clear."

That does not settle right with me at all.

Votato, I am going to sort through your meta to see if I confirm what you said about your activity levels.

In the meantime, would you be willing to vote geriantm?

Geraintm was my first vote in this game. I would think you would remember that if you were town here, given there wasn't a lot of posts between these, and not push this towards a scum angle on me.

[stungun0404]

I just don't see how you doubted it that much as town... It felt forced to me. And when something feels forced, you often equate that to them being scummy in this game we play.

All I did was ask him, would you be willing to vote him? Because I wanted those two wagons to have votes, and that was a way I could potentially get that happen. Like, what is so suspect about that and makes you want to doubt everything about it?

[stungun0404]

And yet I had voted geraintm at an earlier point and clearly indicated that I was OK with him getting pressure? Did you happen to miss that?

I don't think as town you doubt the genuineness of that interaction. Like it really gave me a scummy feel about you that I have been unable to shake.

No I did not; that's not the issue I had. I never had an issue with you wanting to redirect pressure there because of suspicions.

My issue was with how it came across to votato which felt unnatural. There was several points where you felt you were either trying to force votato to commit (via stating that it was the only wagon other than him you would move to) on top of it feeling purposely leading after votato gave his first read about germ.

Finally, I found it off putting that you dropped reading votato and prioritized pushing germ when the thread topic switched to that, leaving votato's 650 for example untouched till later which was the analysis you claimed you wanted to see.

Why do you think town me has to see it as genuine?

As for the bolded, this is easily explainable too. I started getting some bad feelings about my push on Votato, so I moved away from him, and there was (and still honestly is) absolutely no support for a Geri wagon. No one has voted him outside of Bob and I in this game. No one. So I went to other scummy suspects.

[stungun0404]

yeah but who pushed it initially, and where did it come from?

farside I think was the first to push Dunnstral.

But I think the way she pushed it was towny quite frankly.

It's the ones with less apparent reasoning to follow in HK/maybe someone else that should look scummy simply for providing no other reason to follow than "Dunn looks scummy. I agree with what has been said there."

[stungun0404]

I'll answer HK and GC's questions later when I'm fully awake...

but just wanted to say I don't like Porkens readlist at all, personally. HK "very town", GC "very town", voting Dunnstral, Bob (who is my biggest townread) and I in the scumteam pile?

Like, all of that right there is bad to me.

[stungun0404]

Especially when I feel strongly about one of GC or Porkens being scum. Under that scenario especially, I absolutely do not like the fact that GC "is very town" to Porkens.

[stungun0404]

And Mala's kinda right. It's time we start settling on a lynch, with 13 hours left in the day, and I don't think this day phase will go anywhere than Porkens, unfortunately.

Thus, VOTE: Porkens

Unless anyone has any reason to think this day phase could possibly lead to another lynch,

[stungun0404]

Hmm, one more thought I'd like to put out there right now.

I think it is highly unlikely scum is aiding us towards a lynch right now given that the wagon of Porkens has only 3 votes, and I think if they were really pushing someone, there would be a majority with more than 3 votes right now.

Thus, it is highly unlikely there is more than one scum on the Porkens lynch right now, and if I am reading this right they may all be town (Mala, bob, Vot? (still have a slight question mark there, but this does provide a little reason to believe he is town).

[stungun0404]

This might even suggest some scum are in the passive players group

[stungun0404]

Am I the only player you respond to? Lol, I notice that I have taken up half of your responses since 803. Why so much focus on me if you think I am town?

[stungun0404]

literally 11 of your last 21 posts were responses to me. are you focusing on me and no one else?

[stungun0404]

and anyways, my reads are usually but not always right geraintm when they are strong, but sometimes I move away from those correct and strong suspicions and incorrectly get caught up on town inconsistencies. i'm sure that happens to any townplayer though tbh.

it makes the game much easier when I can look at players from an "are they town?" perspective, and if I cannot make a logical case for that, then they are likely scum. that is something that has proven correct for me consistently.

i'd probably have to iso folks again to really truly get to the nitty-gritty of those feels this game, because there have been a lot of inconsistencies coming from a lot of different players.

[stungun0404]

Porkens, what do you think of GC's early pushes against your slot (Battle Mage) that I have quoted here.

Your predecessor, Battle Mage, seemed to think he was scum.

Spoiler: What do you think Porkens?

VOTE: Battle Mage

His vote on votato looks made up.

First, his vote:

Votato votes are lazy. I bet one of y'all are scum.

Challenge accepted!

VOTE: Votato

I like the meta analysis by stungun

, clearly nobody is getting behind Green Crayons, and I think I'm townleaning Dunnstral. And seriously, voting BM on Day 1? This dude has run out of ideas...

He reads votato as scum only because of your meta analysis. But your meta analysis specifically said it was a wash on alignment, and so wasn't AI:

While you may be fairly active in some of your scum games, this evidence does not suggest that in your town games you are always lurking at the start.

Thus, I don't think this initial analysis into your gameplay is very alignment-indicative, as it seems you are breaking pattern regardless of alignment.

So his votato vote pushes a wagon based on nothing AI. He does get in a sweet "lol ooOooOooOoo I'm teasing you with maybe I'm scum" jab, which is more likely to come from scum than town.


Then, this continued vote despite:

i have a little but i cant talk about it. by day 2 or 3 ill probably give some more details. as for the association you're drawing between me and dunn, stun, you're right that we aren't scumbuddies, but i dont think your reasons why are all that strong. plus the only reason you know that is cuz you and i are scumbuddies.

*** wrong thread.

Last time I saw something like this it flipped town, but what can ya do!?

He points to non-player-specific meta that would suggest that votato is town. But just lols over it and keeps his votato vote. His decision to pick and choose "meta" to justify whether votes should move is particularly glaring when you consider he uses meta a few posts later in Post 403 to argue votes on Dunn are misplaced.

Also took a weird stance on BM that his vote on Votato "looked made up" in 421, which does not exactly seem like the best reason to vote BM if you ask me. Also, I do not know if it is a natural town instinct to come to a conclusion that a vote "is made up", just seems like a forced scum conclusion, but maybe I am wrong there.

Maybe if you look harder, you'll see I've been suspecting Battle Mage for a while.

Maybe if you look *even harder*, you'll see why.

And lol @ my justification for voting BM apparently went completely over your head in your pursuit to vote me.

He seems mildly town.

Let’s focus on BM.

Who doesn’t have a legitimate scum read on votato—BM voted because of stun’s meta analysis that stun said was not AI—but BM voted votato anyway.

Red light scum alert.

Now this, votato, is scummy:

Again!? Beating a dead horse here pal. I suppose you wouldn't know if my scumread was legitimate or not, because you haven't bothered to ask me or probe my explanation, you've just set up an implausible strawman.

- I've raised this point several times, both to generally to the thread to explain my vote and to specific players to try to get them to engage with it. That's not "beating a dead horse," but he tries to discredit normal mafia play.
- I don't need to know whether his scumread was legitimate because he already gave his reason for voting you, and it was not an AI reason. Thus the reason as he stated was not legitimate. (lol and now he's taking his time to try to justify his vote to create a new reason)
- Calling strawman, when there's no straw man here, to deflect from his scumminess

He reads votato as scum only because of your meta analysis. But your meta analysis specifically said it was a wash on alignment, and so wasn't AI:

The fact Stungun doesn't think it's AI, doesn't mean I don't think it's AI. I believe I said, as above, "I like the analysis", as opposed to "I agree with the analysis in it's entirety and share Stungun's resulting conclusion". I did in fact think it was AI, and voted for that reason.

Why is it AI?

I'll answer that when I've caught up.

just lol

Adding onto this BM trying to come up with a real reason to justify a votato vote

is that BM shaded me for not trying to engage him for why he voted votato

so then when I point blank asked him about that reason

he said "hold on let me come up with a reason"

GC finds BM scummy because his vote on Votato looks made up, because BM said he liked my meta analysis on Votato which said what he has done so far is NAI, but because BM thought Votato was scummy for what I analyzed. So GC finds BM to voting Votato there not because he thinks Votato is truly scummy, but instead extending my NAI read on Votato to mean he is scummy?

Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeees, thank you.

In some ways, I can understand this logic here, but in other ways this seems a little bit of a stretch, so I'm conflicted looking at this reasoning?

BM could have just voted Votato on the basis of not seeing anything scummier to that point

, so I feel like the better argument would be that he's not properly scumhunting, and thus he is scum assuming your vantage point is town. He simply is feeding off of my read, and interpreting ~ to be scummy based off of that, using my analysis to both shield him and pocket me.

Good point, but complete hypothetical.

BM has since clarified that he thought your meta read was good, but instead of agreeing with NAI, he found it AI. So BM has wedded himself to saying that his basis for voting votato was because your meta read was actually AI.

That means, way back at the time he voted votato, he thought your meta analysis was AI.

So I challenged him on it. How is it AI?

BM's response: "um give me a minute"

Right here:

He reads votato as scum only because of your meta analysis. But your meta analysis specifically said it was a wash on alignment, and so wasn't AI:

The fact Stungun doesn't think it's AI, doesn't mean I don't think it's AI. I believe I said, as above, "I like the analysis", as opposed to "I agree with the analysis in it's entirety and share Stungun's resulting conclusion". I did in fact think it was AI, and voted for that reason.

Why is it AI?

I'll answer that when I've caught up.

just lol

If he already thought it was AI, he could just say why instead of delaying to come up with a reason.

That’s some weak tea. Vote BM. He’s obviously scum.

Yeah, that's strange, I'm ngl... I will need explanation for that.

my pizza had just turned up and I wanted to watch the football while I ate.

Poor old GC, clutching at straws a bit. If the posting slows a little bit, I'll catch up on some stuff shortly - there's a lot to catch up on across all my games so I'm not promising to respond to everything tonight.

Literally the time it took to write this post would have been the time BM needed to tell us his AI justification for voting votato.

Remember: BM said that he already reasoned why stun’s meta analysis was AI all the way back when BM voted votato. So BM should be able to just spit it out.

He hasn’t because he’s lying. You can’t spin stun’s NAI meta analysis into an AI meta analysis.

Lynch all liars. BM is scum.

I'd find it strange if BM flips scum.

Let's flip BM.

I think BM is more likely to flip scum than town. His explanation for reading scum's NAI meta analysis as AI is plausible on its face. In context though, that plausibility doesn't undermine the other suspicions that point to scum:

-He took forever to provide his AI justification, although he supposedly thought of it ages ago

- He took plenty of time to discredit my suspicions as strawmanning without actually just engaging with my suspicions and providing his AI justification, suggesting delay to come up with a plausible reason after the fact

- He's saying BOTH (1) he had other suspicions for voting votato so we shouldn't suspect him for this thin reasoning (supposed other reasons that he never voiced, so how are we supposed to know that?) AND (2) it was an early vote so we're expecting too much from him in terms of reasoning, which are contradictory defenses that defeat each other. EITHER we should give him a pass because he had other, stronger reasons to vote votato OR we should give him a pass because it was early D1 so he didn't need to have strong reasons to vote votato. It looks like scum slinging whatever defenses he can.

[stungun0404]

Fair enough, but what about GC?

His push was very aggressive against you, and BM's against GC was also a little aggressive, which is why from my angle it makes the most sense if one of the slots was scum pushing the other one.

[stungun0404]

It isn't just the aggressiveness, it is the way both sides were pushing their cases that struck me as strange. Both sides seemed to me they were forcing things a little bit, which I don't think comes from a 'T vs. T' angle.

But alas, both farside and I have come to that conclusion of one of you two being scum.

Also, you seem to have me and bob (my biggest townread) in your scumpool, which makes me question why us two?

[stungun0404]

My pool is a mix of three factors:

Ger+stun circa 274
Stun+Dunn+vot circa 389 (targeting GC)
Bob circa the first 30pages not expressing one firm read then calling Dunn town. Also votato and stun both have bob town.

274 was not serious at all; it was a total joke. His previous post made me laugh. I would definitely not base anything off of that--because it is not by any means an AI vote flip. Anyways, there was no support for the gera wagon anyways, so it seemed to be a lost cause.

Circa 389: I'm not quite sure why that raised red flags for you either

Bob has asked incredibly insightful questions and made numerous original observations that to me clearly suggest he is coming from a town perspective. It is clear he is scumhunting. And why are you basing your read of someone based off who others have as town, and thus making them scum? That's not a compelling reason for finding someone to be in your scumpool.

[stungun0404]

I mean, I flipped from one super inactive poster who was not posting much to another super inactive poster at the time who was posting even less than geraintm.
I think Votato only had 3 posts at that point in time, so we sorely needed him to get in the thread and post, and votes are a way to get someone to talk. Votato did just that after we began voting him.

[stungun0404]

Yeah that could be true, but those votes can motivate someone to want to contribute even more once they do return to the thread because it puts pressure on them.

[stungun0404]

If you're town, I think you are really really misguided Porkens to be quite frankly.

[stungun0404]

We have 8 hours to lynch, just so everyone is clear.

Porkens is currently at L-2

We should be fine as long as we don't wait until the last minute to put the 2 votes down, if we decide that is the way we go. Unless we have multiple people keeping an eye on the deadline that can vote (I think having 3 would be a safe count).

[stungun0404]

Changed my mind towards scum on GC? Read my 455 which explains everything in a lot of detail.

I have thought Dunnstral is not scum, but he has been a weak townlean. I did not like the early case that was against him, as I did not find him to be scummy based off that, and then there was the fact that he was not supporting any counterwagons which from a survivalism aspect makes no sense if he is scum that held the majority vote for the majority of this day phase. Like, it makes absolutely no sense what his strategy would be there. There are other reasons, such as his more recent posts which I would suggest looking at as opposed to his earlier posts, because he had some really good posts between page 30 and page 40.

[stungun0404]

It was after I analyzed everyone's ISO and tried to assess how town they were. GC was the player I had the most difficulty understanding from a town perspective, and past games have indicated to me that the player I feel is least town on D1 is scum every time that I can recall.

Like, his early posts were not explainable from a town perspective at all IMO...

[stungun0404]

I hopped on GC because of the entire explanation of 455, which I intentionally withheld for about 10 posts to strengthen the argument I was working on before posting it and to see how people would react to my vote of GC.

[stungun0404]

I like to apply pressure on players to see how they react.

What prompted you to start iso reads when Dunn was the strongest wagon (which you were on?)

I didn't think Dunn was scum based off feel. I have played with him multiple times, so I am more attuned to that than other players in this game might be.

[stungun0404]

Why did you feel the need to delay and strategically strengthen your argument? Were you that convinced Dunn was town? How about Germaine or battlemage at that point, how was GC scummier than either?

I have stated this day phase on multiple occasions (which, yes you have probably have not read, but I feel like I am having to repeat myself a lot on this lol), that I intentionally withhold information if I think it can turn out to be an advantage to town.

This was expressed in my 785 and my 946, and this was yet another instance where I strategically withheld.

[stungun0404]

At that particular point, I thought that GC and Geraintm were the most scummy, and I kinda felt that your slot was town, but I wasn't too convinced. A lot has changed since then, and I am really convicted one of your slot/GC is scum.

[stungun0404]

If you want my percent rankings, I can grab them right out of the notes I took, let's go:

at that point, i had

GC 59% town
Geraintm 65% town
HK50 66% town
NM 67% town
Votato 68% town
NS 69% town
DoctorPepper 70% town
Bob 73% town
BM 74% town
Mala 77% town
Farside 79% town

So really no one stuck out with everyone so close to each other except GC.

[stungun0404]

But HK made that same argument that the Dunn lynch tells us the most? And he is one of the players I trust the least. And plus, my biggest townread, Bob, saw an association between the two of you, so for all I know you could be scum partners, like I could see it.

[stungun0404]

this day has dragged on far too long. it needs to end so we can get some flips and move past day 1. i really dont care who we lynch all that much at this point. porkens is still very scummy, and i dont see the dunn case. i could go for stungun maybe.

I honestly agree with this. I am over this day phase. I don't want to do any more analysis.

Porkens, I really can't tell you what I make of Votato's sheep vote until either a). a flip of you occurs, or b). a flip of him occurs, because it can easily be explained by both town and scum perspectives.

[stungun0404]

Porkens, do you have any meta where you have been lynched on D1 or close to being lynched as (preferably both alignments)? I just want to look at it and see if I spot anything.

[stungun0404]

Please welcome Porkens to the town! I will add 24 hours to the clock if they request it.

This is a replacement of clidd.

No worries people, he said he would do it here.

[stungun0404]

votato: You were in this game with porks
Do you see similarities in his scum game from there to here?

I'm feeling conflicted about him right now.

I notice a lot of filler posts in not only that scum game, but also the one I played with him a few years back (Transformers Mafia): https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 5B%5D=9469

I don't notice a lot in that town game you linked me to, or this game so far.

Also, if anyone wants an ISO of me playing scum, here you go (from that same game with porkens): https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... B%5D=31546

[stungun0404]

VOTE: GC

Reason: I can explain more of what he's done from a scum perspective than I can about Porkens so far this day phase, and one of them is likely to flip scum FMPOV. Makes the most sense for me to vote the one that a). I cannot readily explain from a town perspective and b). I can explain a lot of things he's done as scummy.